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tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  February 25, 2016 12:00pm-1:01pm EST

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season again in cupertino. it will be a busy day for apple no matter what. >> i wonder how much of that conversation will center on the company, the earnings and it's massive business. >> let's get back to headquater and the half. >> carl, thanks very much. welcome to the halftime show. and the option monsters are here too. john and pete, our game plan looks like this. john and pete go combing through the or the foil owe for the one stock he should kick to the curve. how much pain is ahead for the bank ifs crude keeps getting crushed. the investor weighs in on that key question. we begin with what could be another big one facing the economy and the stock market. whether you the consumer is string strong or fading.
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a flurry of retail results. some good, some bad. i wonder if restoration or maybe it's devastation hardware. >> it's brutal and they blame the market. >> maybe that's the final proof that the high end customer has rolled over. >> has pulled back at least. i don't know necessarily we're talking about rolled over but they're blaming the market and they're talking about volatility and all the things going out on the markets each and every day and i they when you go through the retail environment it's good to see howell home depot did and tjx did also. when you look at the names doing well they have some form of exposure to the housing world and where the spending is going on and maybe other names. macy's surprised us sitting here on the desk. expectations have been so low. >> they could have gotten over that bar. >> but they did. that was the real key. that's why that stock reacted the way it was. they have been punished and pricing in a lot of the
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negativity. >> you're helping me make my point though steve. restoration hardware is down 22%. william sonoma cut their guidance. some of the other names are highly suspect at this point. if a high end consumer has rolled over so to speak is every other consumer next? >> well i'm not so sure it's rolled over. it may have rolled over in terms of goods like that that you're seeing in merchants like ralph lauren and so forth but it hasn't in terms of experiences and in terms of autos. so we can argue all day about whether autos are falsely inflated but the facts are the auto numbers are extremely strong. so i just think it's a transition from buying goods to experiences and, you know, also saving and yes, i mean, i wouldn't -- i don't buy restoration hardwares excuse that it's the market. they had issues before. they just went through a restructuring. >> maybe they're telling us what we started to suspect. that the problem in the stock market is hurting the overall
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economy or it will have a bigger impact and especially at the high end and make the argument much more exposed to the stock market and you're starting to see that show up. >> it's a whole confidence issue. it's not just the stock market but also the presidential election. how do you know if you should spend money or save money? so you have all of these uncertainties in the global economic climate in the presidential election so i think the consumer, it only makes sense for the consumer to hold some cash. >> do you guy a kohl's? do you buy a target? do you that we didn't own enough if any of us owned it. i didn't. but this has been a if he no, ma'am no stock. so to your point when terry came on and told everybody how bad things were going to be and lower that bar like you say so
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that an ant can step over it, he did come out and put up some phenomenal numbers. the guidance was descent as well and the stock is up 23% in a market that s&p is down 7. so you look at tjx up 4%. you look at best buy up 5%. these are year to date numbers and things. i think that the consumer is just fine. sporting goods, they didn't spend as much because we had a lousy winter in terms of getting people out to ski resorts and things like that. the winter hasn't cooperated with that and barely cooperated with doing some outdoor hockey. >> i'm just wondering what leaves you to believe the consumer is just fine. if you look at the results and weak guidance and some of the stocks that are up because of buy backs and dividend increases what leads you to believe that the consumer is just fine? >> because they're spending the same as last year. that's what retail sales were. you take out some of the volatile things. that's what it was.
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.2%. in other words they're spending what they spent last year. that doesn't scare me about the consumer and i think obviously a stock like smith and wesson, one of my favorites. they continue to spend their stocks up another few percent today and the president isn't even talking about this today. >> our next guest is optimistic on the u.s. consumer for that matter. let's welcome him back. it's good to talk to you again. >> so you're still positive on the things we heard from corporate america and what we have seen. >> i think so. the markets were starting to anticipate this, not just a world recession but it will drag the u.s. down and the u.s. consumer but if you look at retail sales and they adjust for inflation it's up 4% so i agree the consumer is spending and you're also right apparently they're doing well enough to
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save money because they have gotten this wind fall. so i think the consumer is in good shape. i like the u.s. economy. i like the u.s. as the place to invest on a global basis. it looks great. >> you don't buy the fact that the higher end consumer may be pulling back more substantially. >> they may just have it all i think a lot of people are maxed out on the goods side of it. the goods side of retailing is extremely competitive. if you're looking for deflation it's been in consumer durables. so consumers are getting used to getting bargains all the time. they're not waiting for sales. everything is on sale all the time. you go to macy's and go up to the cash register and they ask you, do you have a coupon and if they don't they'll give you one. >> you're making the case of why you need to be concerned about the retailers. what you're telling me is that
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margins suck. >> the market has become a market for stock pickers. you have to really know your companies and while the overall consumer can be in great shape that doesn't mean you're going to buy anything related to the consumer. you have to look at the companies and the competition. >> you have to be selective. you can't just say it's walmart or target. it's target. target is killing them. they're destroying them in the big box area. tjx is destroying them and by the way, strong margins. there are places and it's all about selection and it's which stocks and which companies have the best management right now and those are the companies that are doing well and those that are blaming it on the stock market for instance, that would make me concerned right there. >> there's one word that you mentioned that has me concerned overall. and that's the biggest issue. markets aren't going to go up in a deflation nary environment. we have seen deflation spread throughout. >> that's a very important point and the reason we have deflation
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is the markets because markets have become extremely competitive. they have been competitive on a global basis. companies are managing the business for margin. they used to just -- >> profit margins have peaked. >> well. >> last year they peaked. >> they aren't going to get much better. that all time record high but i'm saying companies will do whatever they can. like use technology to reduce costs where ever they can. >> let me ask you this. do you they the chinese, the yuan whether they want to do it or not is devalued or not? >> i think they're going to let it creep down. i don't think they're going to do a massive 10% shocker. >> i'd say it's got to go down 25%. the average currency valuation is 34%. if they do a slow basis it's going to get worse. capital is coming out. >> it's really a tough call. >> but here's my point. even if they do that's exporting deflation because we're going to be less competitive. germany is going to be less competitive.
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so isn't that like a real warning sign? >> again this gets to the whole select ift issue. there's companies and industries where things have been so commoditized. who follows the calculator industry? who cares? and loi otolaryngology businesses being commoditized too. health care, bio tech, there's good margins so it's very selective. >> you still think we're in a bull market but you, yourself, you pulled back your target by some 300 s&p points. >> i got ambushed. i wasn't the only one. i think we all got ambushed at the beginning of the year by two fed officials. fisher and the fellow over at the san francisco fed. both started talking about we're really going to increase the fed funds rate four times this year and the market just doesn't get it. and jon williams. so as soon as the market heard two of these key officials and really intent on four rate hikes
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it got hit and now the fed is trapped because if they raise rates because the stock market is doing better and the economy is looking good they'll get hit again. so i think the fed is done. i can't see how they raise rates after the reaction. >> the whole year. >> why would i buy a financial stock right here and now? a sector that you like? >> well -- >> if the fed is done, if we're worried about exposure to oil and gas and everything else, why would i do that? >> they're cheap. that's the only good reason i can come up with right now and i do think that they do have a problem with the yield curve. but i think this is not 2008 all over again and some of these stocks are priced like, you know, jp morgan selling well under asset value so i think they're just cheap and we have seen how the market has come back since february 11th at this end of the world scenario and maybe this is going to be all
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right overall. >> maybe that was the low. >> we did that. >> the bottoms done. >> i really thought that january 20th was the ka pitch you lags low and we contested that and went lower on february 11th and i think we tested it. i think it's going to hold. we're looking at a choppy market. kind of sideways action last year setting us up for a resumption of the bull market next year. next year i'm looking for 2200 or maybe 2300. we're already back at 1930 and you know it's like -- >> for this moment. >> for this moment, exactly. >> it's good to talk to you. >> thank you. >> coming up a ray of sunshine for the cloud companies and dominos delivers while today's big earnings movers ahead in the blitz. apple and the government taking center stage on capitol hill. how tim cook and the fbi director are each making their cases today and it can get pretty fooisty when the brothers have a difference of opinion.
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>> he should dump some losers from his portfolio but they disagree on which one. the battle of two ponytails coming up. you're watching cnbc first in business worldwide. [plumber] i need to be where the pipes are. so i use quickbooks and run my entire business from the cloud.
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welcome back to the halftime report. shares of hp falling after the company's first quarter revenue fell nearly 12% on continued weakness in the pc and printer markets.
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the company is projecting 2nd quarter earnings below analyst estimates. the worst day since november. the last time that they reported as one company. >> thanks so much. apple ceo tim cook speaking out about his refusal to crack open the iphone of one of the san bernardino killers. the fbi director was on capitol hill earlier pressing his case. josh. >> well, scott, the battle lines are drawn here and neither side giving ground in this fight. this morning on capitol hill, fbi director james comey made the governments case saying the fbi is not trying to establish some broad precedent here that this would apply to one phone. take a listen. >> i love encryption. i love privacy when i hear corporations saying we're going to take you to a world where no one can look at your stuff. i don't want anybody looking at my stuff. law enforcement which i'm part
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of really does save people's lives. rescue kids. rescue neighborhoods from terrorists and we do that a whole lot through court orders and search warrants and search warrants of mobile devices. so we're going to move to a world where that is not possible anymore, the world will not end but it will be a different world than where we are today. >> now comey also noted that apple has been cooperative but the two sides reached an impasse on this issue and meanwhile tim cook took to abc last night to explain his side of the story. >> we have no more information about this phone. the only way to get information, at least currently the only way we know would be to write a piece of software that we view as sort of the software equivalent of cancer. we think it's bad news to write. we would never write it. we have never written it and that is what is at stake here. >> now cook suggested that he is willing to take this case to the supreme court if necessary. apple remember has until
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tomorrow to formally respond to the court. scott back to you. >> josh, thank you for that. as if there wasn't enough maybe for investors to already be thinking about when it comes to apple where the stock is going to go. is now this something that we should be worried about if you're an investor in apple? >> there's two ways to think about it. one is that they're very concerned about the security of their phones. the data that goes in the phones. that's a positive thing and some arguments put forward. the other way i think they could turn this into a much better positive is instead of being defeated say they can come up with the software solution to provide law enforcement and really build their network security. >> public opinion on this has been pretty split which tells you there is the possibility that you could have some sort of buyer backlash down the road. does it not? >> yes. except they're not going to be the only ones so it's going to be spread out so all devices in the sector. so whether it's even the tv that you're watching, your phones,
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your ipads, your computers, it's all the same. this happens to be lightning rod right now. >> i don't think so. i think there's other issues facing apple such as, okay, what's going to be the next killer product. they haven't come up with one in a long time. >> anybody have a difference? >> there could be a negative form as far as the pr. >> but the leading presidential candidate on one side calling for a boycott of the company. >> he uses an iphone and tweets out pictures and i think a lot of us that love the product are behind mr. cook when he says i want to keep this a secure network. i don't know if it's 50/50 split or 70/30. it's not a majority, a serious majority that want this to just be an open key that the fbi can read all of your tweets, ims,
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instant messages. that's what he done want to give him. he called it the software equivalent of cancer. i think it would be a cancer for the stock if they just collapsed and did it. >> what happens if they say no. they court and they found something on there that was a terrorist attack or someone getting killed by information on the phone they could have prevented. that's a worse case scenario for apple then because all of these protests will then take root and could have saved lives. >> does this hurt the stock? >> no, tim cook is doing the right thing by fighting this and if he ends up going to court and they push him on the whole thing and they have to develop something scott, he stood by his principles, he stood by apple and the government itself stepped in and now it's on the government and not apple. >> how worried should you be about big bank exposure to the
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energy crash? the five star manager whose focus on the financials separates fact from fiction for us and he's arguably the greatest investor of all time. but even warren buffet makes some mistakes from american express to ibm. at least right now those stocks have been under pressure. john and pete combing through the portfolio for the stocks they think he should drop. it's a brother versus brother debate and it's coming up next. as we head to break a look at some of the names hitting all time highs. church and dwight, campbell soup, kimmer by clark, reynolds american. we're back right after this. ♪ every insurance policy has a number. but not every insurance company understands the life behind it. for those who've served and the families who supported them, we offer our best service in return. usaa. we know what it means to serve. get an insurance quote and see why
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we are back and if you have been having a tough go of it in the market this year at least you have some well-known company including that of the world's most famous investor. a look at warren buffet's berkshire hathaway holdings show big declines in names like american express, ibm and others which is why we put john and pete on the case to decide which names the oracle should sell. buffet hardly ever does that but we'll have some fun anyway. >> he did that in the case of, what was it, exxon mobil, pete, where he took a huge hit on that
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one. he's taking a huge hit on the number of the names we had up on the board. the one i think he should dump, general motors. he loves buying when there's blood in the streets. he wants some sort of competitive advantage and excellent management. i don't think these guys have a competitive advantage. i think they have more like legacy problems than they have a competitive advantage and as far as mary bara i'm not hanging all of this on her but i think she has not proved she's an excellent manager so two of his three criteria general motors no longer meets that criteria. >> that's why i picked american express. i look at this name and when you take a look at the chart of this name going into hast year and 2015 it looked strong. it ended up hurting me and the reason was part of the other issue, co-branding. they're not competing at all. not only did they lose to costo
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but they also lost to fidelity. they're losing to other areas as well. that's why it's american express losing to visa and mastercard. they're going through an entire restructuring so they're addressing these issues and the problem is this stock is still going to be stuck for a long time right where it is right now which is well beneath the 50 day and well beneath the 200 day and it's going to be down here for quite sometime because the only growth they have is financial engineering. >> neither one of you said wells fargo. from a dollar loss standpoint it's the second biggest in the portfolio as of the last filing. >> i think to the point earlier, the one thing is looking at these financials they're just so cheap. there is a possibility. at some point in time when that comes we don't know. when we start to see the yield curve change a little bit that will help all of the banks but in the meantime i think you're satisfied looking at this name as a name that could start
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moving based upon where it trades from a valuation perspective. they have some potential. look at the names john and i are talking about right now you just wonder in the environment they're in are they truly one of the top competitors which is something they always like to have. i don't put them right there right now. >> no one said ibm for that matter either. >> i was leaning toward that one. i almost went to that one but i'm going to give him a little credit here. here he is the one that lost this stock and bought it cheap and bought it higher and bought it really cheap in the 120s and made a nice move. >> and it's also to the curve. >> he's going to settle the score. what do you think about the picks. >> the two names that don't fit in this portfolio, they're general motors and those are highly cyclical companies. nothing else is cyclical like
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that. energy is really not like what is happening with the saudis. it doesn't have that deep fundamental down. as i look at it. >> in a position year to date as well. based on what we think he still owns by virtue of the berkshire filings of late. $3 million is the amount of loss there. american express is next, pete, to your point, at a little more than 2 billion. in an overall portfolio value loss of 7 billion or nearly 6%. >> the other thing about american express that you can understand what he wants to hold on to he owns this stock from 1964. i was basically born end of 63, almost 64. that's how long he owned the stock. >> he's a lifer. >> but the values there. you don't know if the value is really there in gm because of
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the declining business. it's a matter of time before it goes back up. >> maybe we'll ask him some of these questions or you guys will or the team will because mr. buffet himself will be joining squawk next week. tweet your questions for the billionaire investors. use the #ask warren. it's here on cnbc at 6:00 a.m. on monday. always entertaining. coming up the emerging market etf is down more than 25% in the last year. is the sell off a historic opportunity to buy? somebody thinks so. plus what lower for longer oil prices mean for the banks. he joins us with his take on energy risk in the financials. (patrick 1) what's it like to be the boss of you? (patrick 2) pretty great. (patrick 1) how about a 10% raise? (patrick 2) how about 20? (patrick 1) how about done? (patrick 2) that's the kind of control i like...
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man 1: he just got fired. man 2: why? man 1: network breach. man 2: since when do they fire ceos for computer problems? man 1: they got in through a vendor. man 1: do you know how many vendors have access to our systems? man 2: no. man 1: hundreds, if you don't count the freelancers. man 2: should i be worried? man 1: you are the ceo. it's not just security. it's defense. bae systems.
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s&p sectors lead by utilities. energy is a drag along with materials. >> thanks scott, here's what we're watching at this hour. a lawyer for volkswagen telling a federal judge the german auto maker is making progress with the justice department, epa and california. in reaching a resolution over
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excess emissions in nearly 600,000 diesel vehicles. the judge says he wants an agreement by march 24th. a french court has given the go ahead to evict hundreds of migrants from shelters at a camp in the northern port city of cala. they can evict the migrants but can't entirely raise it. schools must be kept in place. a u.s. coast guard vehicle capsized while responding to a fishing boat that ran aground off the coast of new york. all five members on board were removed from the water. seven people were on board the fishing boat. the restaurant is getting worldwide attention for the latest item on its menu. it's a hamburger patti put between two mini pizza buns. it's getting a lot of play on social media. that's the update at this hour. i don't think i'm going to eat that. >> they used to serve pizza
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burgers in elementary school at lunch. >> i'm serious. >> now i know where josh brown is. >> i still remember that. >> crude oil is falling nearly 2% today. bertha is there with more. >> in a chalupa in a taco and then you're talking. meantime, oil if it weren't for bad news we have record inventory levels. no signs of an inventory cut. we seemed to have held about $31 million. do you think we'll hold these levels here. >> for me it's going to be a little bit difficult. when you look at the oil volatility index it's still extremely high. i like to see that thing drop below 50. when you get oil swinging 4% a day that's what the oil volatility index is indicating. it would be difficult and not just hard to price oil but hard to price the cds market and hard to get volatility out of the stock market.
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it would be difficult to move higher and get liquidity into this marketplace until we see the volatility start to ease and then maybe we move higher but other than that we move back down to 30. >> with all of that volatility, you think we push even further below 30 potentially. >> i don't. i disagree with brian. i think that the fact that we're now spending the 6th day in a row. lower highs and lower lows that we have seen since november is really important and we're getting good news in gasoline and bad news in crude oil. we turn most of that crude oil into gasoline. gasoline is up another 1% today. that's great and finally they're going to line up with all the other producers in a production freeze and once all the producers are lined up they agree to freeze, that's a baby step but a baby step in the right direction toward actual production cuts. >> guys, we'll talk a lot more about oil and the economy. our guest today on the live show will be ron paul.
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the former congressman and he always has something very interesting to say. you're not going to want to miss it. that's live coming up on futures now.cnbc.com. scott. >> bertha, we'll be there, thank you. financial stocks bouncing today after pretty tough sessions of late as investors try to gauge how much exposure some of the big banks have to the oil and gas crunch. the president of capital advisors joins us now on set. it's good to see you again. >> always a pleasure. >> we learned new information about what kind of exposure big guys have like jp morgan. should we be more worried? >> no i think quite frankly it was misread by the market. they layed out and said all right in worst case scenario, 18 months, $25, who knows where oil is going to go? here's what we get to write off in reserves. they're still going to make 27 billion dollars if they do that in that year. so we're not talking about capital destruction at the big banks. we're talking about less
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earnings. they're already pricing that in. they all trade at numbers that look like 10, 9, 8 times earnings. 80 or 90% of book value. the big banks are safe as far as energy exposure. the energy exposure is in the high yield market. that's really where it got underwritten at this time. >> i think maybe there was a window into lower oil for longer seems to be hurting people like jp morgan and others at a faster pace than we expected. that was the surprising news that came out this week and not so much the numbers. >> i think people have racheted down every time oil has dropped, right? $30 here's the number. 25 now there's the number. so at some point all of these efforts to stop the collapse of oil was going to work. >> it's worse than that. you can't point to a figure. and the longer it stays there the worse it is.
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an it's the local banks. it's reserve based lenders. and what production would be. so they're getting destroyed. so high yield. one credit investor says 100 billion of energy investment grade credits will go into the high yield market. that will crush the high yield market. it's the local banks that you have to worry about. >> correct. >> as a portfolio manager i have been avoiding the local banks since the fall of 2014 because, you know, you can't measure that risk. that risk is bank destroying capital. right? the big banks it's 1 to 3% of the loans. they can absorb those hits. they're priced to absorb them. the local banks, who knows. >> when you talk local banks one of your top picks has been a regional bank. a local bank. but you're talking in local areas that are texas related and other areas. >> texas, oklahoma. >> west virginia, right?
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>> you have got fracking. you have got coal. >> but here's from moody's this morning. lower oil prices could still test across our global rated portfolio in term of the baseline credit assessments and long-term deposit and debt ratings. do you see what they see or do you dismiss it? >> no, i'm not dismissing it. i'm not saying there's not content in it. the big bank versus the capitol to absorb it. the housing crisis was 13 times bigger and resided on the banks balance sheets. high yield market has a lot of it residing. the big banks 1 to 3% exposure. i'm not ready to buy banks in oklahoma now. >> to southwest airlines 2% is energy. the reason in terms of announcing what they're writing off is because they can't write them off until they're nonperforming. you keep seeing that. they're so far up in the capital structure they stand a better
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chance of recovering the loans and banks. >> here's the big question i have. what bank is getting sold off the most right now unjustly because of people's perception on exposure? what's the biggest bank and smallest banks talking about locals. >> i like bank of america at 82% of book value and 10 times depressed looking earnings. we have real upside to the earnings. >> if the fed ever raises rates we have real upside to the earnings. all the bad stuff is priced in here. so i would say bank of america is at a level very attractive to me. i love the southeast. i talked about it before. it was 27 on december 2nd. it's 21 today. and things are fine. i mean, earnings are fine. growth is fine. i mean it's in charlotte. it's in raleigh. it's in the research triangle. good things are are happening. >> you don't see it as another head wind for the fact that we thought we got to the point where the banks have been
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releasing their reserves and that was a good thing and now we're back in a scenario in which they're increasing them and even in better levels than we thought as a result of the crunch. >> if you're in the markets that have energy loans you're increasing reserves. if you're in other markets you're actually increasing and you like that. there's loan growth. there's loan growth in the southeast. these guys are growing at mid single digits to low teens. the good banks are stealing stuff from the big banks that are so trapped by all the ratios and regulatory issues that the small banks have a big advantage in term of growth and if they're building reserves banks are supposed to write off some of their loans. these days banks never lose money. they're supposed to lose some money when they lend money. that's part of it. >> i'm assuming that you were at the jp morgan day. >> i was not physically there. >> when jamie bought his own stock, what was your reaction that day? >> i thought it was a terrific signal to the market and the
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market received it very well. not only did jp morgan go up dramatically that day, the entire space went up dramatically. >> i felt it was. i was surprised by the magnitude of the drop. yes it was crowded going into investor day. i wasn't long jp morgan going into investor day but valuation seems pretty fair here and i think it's a vote of confidence. it's a long-term investment. i'd love to see the other ceo step up and buy some stocks. >> there you go. we'll see what happened. >> it's appreciate it. >> chinese stocks posting their biggest one day loss in a month. emerging markets may be the trade of the decade. our call of the day coming up next. want to get their hands on.
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that you know we are spoiled but it does raise the question, is the bear market being born? is the bull market just taking a pause? we'll hunt for value in this down market. we're going to speak with one top five star fund manager that's out performing this year. we'll tell you what they are that he really likes right now. he's always entertaining and has a lot to say. he joins us to talk about apple's big fight with the fbi over encryption. scott back to you. >> all right. thanks so much. stock markets in emerging countries have been crushed as you know and now a well-known firm sees what it's calling a possible trade of the decade. pimco saying in a new note today the exodus from emerging markets is a wonderful opportunity. quite possibly the trade of the decade. we made it our call of the day. is this the right call? >> i think emerging markets and the head winds that they were facing judge with the potential for four rate increases which most of us agree is not on the
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table any longer, especially what bullard last night and again today with what he was saying, the fed, mr. bullard -- >> john is this the right call? rewind what i said. >> let me put it this way. >> john, is this the right call. >> you have two of the biggest emerging markets. the bricks, right? brazil and russia. those two you take them out of it and it is the right call. you leave them in it's the wrong call because they will drag down result of the rest of the emerging markets, i believe. >> pete. >> i think it's just too early of a call would be my point, scott. i don't understand why this isn't going to persist for a little bit longer. i think -- do i think after three years they have been crushed? absolutely. does it mean it's by the decade, i don't think so. it's still a little bit of time scott. especially if everybody that comes on here each and every someday right about where oil is going to be over the next 12 or 18 months. we're stuck between 25 and 35. i think that's huge pressure on the emerging markets. make it far too early to jump in
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now. >> no. it's not. and i'll tell you why. because -- >> you're bottom picking, huh? >> yeah. tighten your time frame because usually we're hearing about generational opportunities. it always has been and always will be. you have to get in before the momentum starts and you have to get it out before then. so there was a school of thought at least put forth by one investor. within the last few years that brazil for example, it's so bad it's good. >> it's so bad it's getting worse. >> it's so bad it's getting worse. does that ever look like again a long-term opportunity? let's say ten years out. are you going to be thankful you did five or ten years from now? >> you can't -- you may get lucky and that may happen but unless you know who is going to be running the country, unless you know that all the corruption
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is that's so pervasive is going to be done away with, unless you know that inflation is going to come down and there's a reason we're a country and have to open their markets, people want to buy farm land there and you can't unless you're brazilian. i'm not making that bet now. >> if you looked at brazil and said just ahead of the olympics, literally ahead of the opening games when they're totally choked off and spent off off their money that's when you might see a low in brazil but not yet. >> that didn't work f greece. greece overspends. that put them into the issues that they're in. >> true. >> i think there's better ways to hughes money. >> coming up, who deserves to be crowned trader of the year in 2016? it's been a difficult competition thus far. but big news today, pete dusting off the cobwebs making trades and he'll explain exactly what he's been doing and why. plus a financial stock down more than 40% today. just today and a miner posting the biggest loss ever. those stories in the trade in
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the blitz.
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let's check the leaderboard. jon najarian is leading the way. the only one in the green now. there is joe ternova, pete, stephanie link. you made some moves. >> twitter has been moving around and got a little bit of a lift off of some of the lows. maybe higher but today it is down a bit. let's get out of twitter. who knows what will end up with this company, but it is something dragging on my
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portfolio and i got rid of starbucks. not for any negative reasons about starbucks now, i'm thinking from a value perspective, where we are on the s&p, could this name get sold off if we sell off and test the lows once again, which i feel like maybe we're stuck in this range, scott. so why not take some of that off now, some of that exposure. i went into gdx today. that's what i bought. i put a full position on there in terms of that, the portfolio. it is one fifth of my portfolio. that's what i did today. i love the paper we had in there. >> i think you were telling us about that yesterday, the day before or maybe both. we had seen some -- >> it has been going on. the call buying has been insane. i'm kicking myself because they first came in way back in december. >> kind of surprised you waited this long. >> i shouldn't have. but i'm convinced because they continue to come in there, i see put selling, call buying, somebody feels like on the days it goes down it doesn't go down much. on the day it goes up, nice move to the upside. >> you're picking on najarians today.
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>> just pointing some stuff out. >> hey, man. you and i are like blood. >> starting trouble. >> he's a lawyer, you know. >> follow all the action at cnbc.com/pro. let's do our trader blitz. six trades on six stocks making news today. >> nothing wrong with this one. benioff came through. if there is one issue i have, when you look at it from a pe perspective, but forget that for one moment, the growth is extraordinary. they delivered when they had to. the guidance was strong. that's why the stock is up. >> what do you read for the overall enterprise expanse? >> that's why i'm holding on to microsoft. i look at microsoft as a cloud play more than it once was. and i know who they're competing against right now is opposite of that, oracle and sap. but i like microsoft because of the cloud play. >> dominos beat. >> beat in every possible way. the operating margins were extremely impressive.
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31.2%, i believe -- >> raise the dividend. >> raise the dividend. the stock is up 16% year to date and screaming higher. they're expanding on the franchise side. so everything good about what domino's is doing. >> i think patrick doyle is on mad money tonight. volley, worst quarterly loss. you're probably not surprised. >> steel is down, right? prices are down. iron ore, major component of steel, they keep building capacity because of projects they started years ago. you give a miner a dollar, it will find its way to the ground, $2 will. i would stay away from these. and brazil, which i don't like. >> lower than expected earnings from imax. >> incredible growth company. you miss on any metric and got a pe level like imax had coming into this, that y's why it is getting punished today. the growth is impressive. >> quickly, doc, bank rate, missed, downgraded as well. >> and the stock just tumbling,
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just taking apart -- i think stay away from this one. >> you think? >> let it flush a little further before because a lot of people are going to be te in ing to be it. >> biogen. upgraded at citi. >> quality company. i like biotech space. particularly the large cap bioteches. >> investing in the oprah story. weight watchers, shares up 40% since she lost tweeted about the weight loss company. earnings out tonight. find out if jon is sticking with that stock next. here at td ameritrade, they work hard. wow, that was random. random? no. it's all about understanding patterns. like the mail guy at 3:12pm every day or jerry getting dumped every third tuesday. jerry: every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement. there's no way to predict that. td ameritrade.
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let's look ahead to earnings starting with weight watchers. jon najarian, saw some unusual activity and bought it. >> those calls went from $2, judge, to $3.40. that is a nice hit. took half of it off. i'll ride most of the rest of this into the earnings tonight. >> how perfect for the conversation we started the show with? we'll come full circle here. gap, jcpenney, foot locker.
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earnings coming up. >> i'll take foot locker. a lot of people saying it is getting over the hump and maybe won't be there for the next year, next two, maybe, i disagree. i think they're crushing it now. i think the numbers will be impressive tonight. >> jcpenney said they're now going to have some items in the store for a penny, for a penny. >> inflation. >> penny for your thoughts. >> i think that will really help take their clients upscale. i don't like jcpenney, haven't liked it i don't like the department store space at all. gap, they had their issues, keeps going down, down, down. >> how about any one of these stocks, which one jumps out to you? jcpenney, gap, foot locker. >> jcpenney, another leventhal play. it is starting to accumulate strong activity in the march calls, so watch this one. >> you were pointing out, okay, we have a move in the market. crude oil has been slower for
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the session. >> yeah, kind of interesting. that would be the most positive thing you could say about the markets, the delinking. however, that correlation i think will come back. we got to get rid of them. >> all right, that's a conversation and big one for another day. that does it for us. thanks for watching. "power" starts now. thank you very much. welcome, everybody, to "power lunch." along with melissa lee and brian sullivan, i'm tyler mathisen. michelle caruso-cabrera has the day off. he's always entertaining and always has a lot to say, cybersecurity pioneer john mcafee will join us to talk about apple's fight with the fbi over encryption. we'll find out which side he's taking. look at this chart of the s&p 500 on a day it is higher by about three points. the stock market incredibly, incredibly, ladies and gentlemen, has gone nine months without reaching a new all time high. i don't know about some of you, i remember when it went 17, 18,

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