tv Worldwide Exchange CNBC March 1, 2016 5:00am-6:01am EST
good morning. breaking overnight, chinese stocks rally, shrugging off weak economic data, but will green arrows across the rest of the world follow suit? >> happening now, barclays shares under pressure after the british bank posts a full-year loss and cuts its dividend. >> and decision 2016. voters in a dozen states head to the polls today to pick their party's candidate for president. it's super tuesday, march 1st. "worldwide exchange" begins right now. good morning. welcome to "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. happy super tuesday. i'm sara eisen.
>> and i'm wilfred frost. a good morning to you. we have it all covered for you coming up. barclays' latest numbers and restructuring plans, glencore's rough results, a legal victory for apple, and so much more. plus, we'll talk politics on this super tuesday. >> first, let's check on the market. s -- markets. looking to recover after a late-day selloff, ending february in the red for the s&p and the nasdaq. dow eked out a gain for the month, though a loss for the day. futures up this hour 84. nasdaq futures up more than 25 after an upbeat done in asia after europe has managed to shrug off wall street's selloff yesterday. >> absolutely right. let's have a quick look at that asian trading session. positive territory. a response to yesterday's rrr cut we discussed yesterday on the show. this first trading session since that happened.
also had chinese government data showing large factory activity contracted for the seventh straight month in february, falling short of estimates. chinese pmi dropped but remained above the key level of 50. a deluge of economic data out of japan today. household spending dropping more than forecast, but the unemployment rate declined, topping estimates. meantime, japanese prime minister shinzo abe is expected to announce today that he's setting up a new advisory panel to debate new spending stimulus. in australia, the central bank kept its cash rate unchanged at a record low of 2% as expected. this was also the first time for stocks in asia, as we said, to react to that rrr cut. there's the performance. you have the shanghai comp up 1.7%. small gains, but nonetheless in the face of disappointing data, not bad at all. >> the only other thing i would point out, because everyone is so focused on it s the chinese currency, which was set stronger for the first time in six sessions.
also, the japanese yen is weaker. that helped the nikkei recover, even though they got a soft batch of economic data. >> the japanese yen, whilst we're on it, was down 6.9% in february. we saw the dollar move down 1.3% for the whole of february, but the move against the dollar extraordinarily strong. 7%, highlighting the pressures that the nikkei has been facing. >> strong yen. they hate that. now to europe and the early trading there. we are seeing some positivity. the ftse 100 has been very strong in the u.k. despite the fact that barclays has been under pressure with the rest of the banks. there you see the early trading setup. the dax in germany gaining the most, up 1.3%. better chinese session has translated into bigger gains for germany. those export-sensitive sectors getting a boost. the ftse 100 at a multimonth high despite that falling
british pound. everybody wants a weak currency. some of them are getting it. >> the resiliency of the ftse 100 is quite impressive. there's the brexit point. more relevant, the fact it has such high commodity and energy exposure. it's done pretty well in the face of that, when you add the tanking banking stocks. >> sort of unlike what we're seeing in the u.s. session. yesterday we went back to selloff mode. the banks were the hardest hit in february in terms of sectors. what was also interesting to watch about yesterday's session, and we'll continue to monitor it today s oil gained 3% yesterday. yet, the s&p closed lower. oil closed at the highs. stock markets closed at the lows. the question is, what is now driving the u.s. stock market? is china a bigger concern? there were some chinese concerns overnight yesterday. what's the narrative in the u.s. market heading into a jobs
report, an all-important fed meeting? is it this idea central banks have lost it? >> i think that's still front and center. i think again today, the debate will focus back on banks again as barclays, a big international bank with exposure here, has suffered. >> march 10th, mark your calendar, ecb. a number of big individual stocks out of europe. barclays reporting a net loss of 394 million pounds. it slashed its future dividend payouts. the company plans to restructure its business into two core divisions, focusing its key markets of the u.s. and u.k. here's the ceo talking to our colleagues in london. >> we're cutting the dividend for a very simple reason. we need to accelerate the closure of our noncore business. if we can get the majority of our noncore businesses, things like the italian retail
business, which we sold recently, or the u.s. wealth management business we sold recently, if we can close these transactions and just have barclays illuminate the core franchise we have and let the profitability of that core business stand for itself, barclays would be in a very good position. >> talking about the dividend cut. we're going to hear much more from him. jes staley will be joining us for a live interview on "squawk box" at 6:05 eastern. it's a good thing they have him. it's been a tough set of first results. >> and for european banks in general. i think particularly interesting to focus on that interview coming up. at the open, they were down about 3%. those losses have accelerated, as you just saw. lots of questions for mr. staley to answer. a very strong trend across
european banks. interesting to see what he has to say to that. i think the dividend cut is getting a lot of focus here. also, selling out of their african business, which is quite significant. relatively profitable compared to other areas. the fact they're selling out of that or intending to, but there's not one single big buyer on the cards yet. they're just announcing they have to do that to raise capital. another tough set of results for one of europe's leading banks. we're also watching glencore today. the company posting a 30% drop in full-year profits, citing a slump in commodity prices. but glen jcore says it's still confident. down 3.5% today. >> mentioned oil. let's show you the broader asset markets at this hour. oil continues to do okay. better than it's been. let's check on oil prices. wti 33.98. nice moves higher, at least for
the bulls, that have been waiting for some relief. brent, interesting to watch. pretty flat right now. 36.55. we saw the highest settlement yesterday on crude oil. we'll see if we can continue to build on that through the u.s. session and whether stocks follow, because they did not yesterday. >> wti did finish february in positive territory. only just, but in positive territory for the first time in four months. though, that doesn't tell the full story. very volatile during the month. only a week or so ago was it leading stocks sharply lower. the fact we were up for february for wti, not quite painting the full picture. but an improvement from the month before. >> let's show you the ten-year treasury note. we did see this move into safe-haven assets yesterday amid a broader selloff. that's reversing. again, positive tone. we'll get auto sales later today. that's the big economic driver of the day. the dollar index. dollar closed lower for the month of february, but it has made a move higher here in the
last 24 hours. check out the action on euro. it's a weak euro and a strong dollar. we're back down to 1.08. it's not great for u.s. corporations. it is good for europe. and it is in anticipation of a move from ecb's mario draghi. especially after more deflationary numbers out of europe yesterday. gold, the mover of the year so far. one of the biggest gainers in terms of assets. we're actually near one-year highs on gold. back up to 1240. i think 1260 might be the 12-month high on gold. continuing to build on its gains, even though we're seeing gains in equities. >> great looking chart. one of few out there for 2016. new york fed president bill dudley is sounding cautious about raising rates in the near future. the drop in oil and other commodity prices, as well as tighter financial conditions, could lead to slow growth and weaker inflation. dudley says the balance of risks may be starting to tilt slightly
to the downside, but he's only slightly marked down his growth forecast to about it 2%. >> more important commentary overnight. u.s. treasury secretary jack lew says commitments by china and other countries at the g-20 meetings this past weekend have reduced the risk of currency devaluations that could fuel turmoil in global markets. lew, who did speak with china's premier on monday, says beijing has given a clear signal here it won't engineer major devaluation of the yuan. he declined comment on china's move to lower reserve ratio requirements for banks yesterday. he says he got the word, it's okay, you don't have to freak out anymore about currency wars. >> right. let's get to some corporate news this morning. a legal victory for apple. a judge ruling late yesterday that the justice department can't force the tech giant to provide the fbi with access to locked iphone data in a routine brooklyn drug case. it's important to note this isn't the case involving the phone of one of the san bernardino shooters. but analysts suggest yesterday's ruling could help apple in its
argument on the san bernardino case. >> deal news this morning. new york stock exchange owner i.c.e. confirming it's considering a bid for the london stock exchange. no approach has been made so far, and no decision has been made whether to pursue an offer. is this ahead of brexit? everyone wants a piece of london stock exchange. >> the timing of deutsche boerse's bid was interesting, at least on headline front. london stock exchange price has done fantastic. other stocks to watch today, valeant revealing it's under investigation by the securities exchange commission. no further details on the nature, but there are reports that this s.e.c. probe is separate from the investigation into salex, which valeant owns. yahoo! says it may write down
the goodwill value of tumblr. this comes two years after the firm spent more than $1 billion on the blogging service. >> other stocks to watch. mixed quarterlies from crocs. the shoe maker reporting a fourth quarter loss, though sales did top consensus. exelixis posted better than expected fourth quarter results and shares are responding nicely, up almost 10%. speaking of health care, rockwell medical could have its worst day in more than 15 years. this after the firm saw fourth quarter sales slide way down by slower growth of its key kidney drug. >> economic data takes the lead over earnings reports today. the ism manufacturing index out, expected to edge up slightly in february. january construction spending is also out at 10:00 a.m. we'll get a first look every month at consumer demand.
>> we've got the kate spade ceo exclusive on "squawk on the street" at 10:00 a.m. when we come back, the race for the white house heating up. it's super tuesday. voteders in dozens of states are headed to the polls to vote for their choice of president. we'll talk to strategists from both parties about who has what to win or lose today. we'll be right back.
welcome back to world world. a very good morning to you if you're just waking up. green across the screen in asia. a little red from south korea, but that's closed. everything open is in the green today. we had some disappointing data out of china, but markets more responding to that rrr cut we got about this time yesterday. it was after the close yesterday. so this is the first chance markets have had to react. the shanghai comp up 1.7%. europe also shrugging off a slightly negative early open to focus more on the asian trade than that late setoff we saw on wall street yesterday. we're looking at gains of about half a percent. the ftse 100 up despite a big fall for barclays. futures pointing to a positive open to the tune of 100 points. sara? >> now to today's trade of day. our data team wanted to see what march looks like. will it be more rewarding? well t turns out if history is any guide, stocks could see some gains this month. over the last decade, the dow,
for example, traded positive eight of the last ten years. but the biggest and most reliable gains actually came from small caps during the month of march. that's from our quant firm. it's a historical guide on seasonality. doesn't factor in some of the weird things we're going through right now, when it comes to raising rates and diverging policies. for more, go to cnbc.com and check out cnbc pro. >> let's get to some political news. it's super tuesday. historically, this is a showdown that ends some campaigns and solidifies others. nbc's tracie potts has this. >> reporter: donald trump hoping to build on his front runner status today with his closest challengers aiming to collect enough delegates to remain competitive. >> a vote for donald trump tomorrow is literally a vote for hillary clinton in november. >> reporter: for ted cruz, that means winning his home state, texas. >> so what we will see, i believe, is donald trump and me
coming out both with a significant chunk of delegates and everyone else far behind. >> reporter: there could be trouble for trump this super tuesday. buzzfeed reports there's a secret "new york times" tape where trump reportedly rejects his own promises to close the border. >> you should be very troubled by a candidate like donald trump who tells "the new york times" one thing and the voters another. >> drurp should ask "the new york times" to release the audio of his interview with them so we can see exactly what it is he truly believes. >> reporter: bernie sanders is hoping to pick up winning today at home in vermont, massachusetts, the midwest, and maybe even texas. >> i think we'll do better there than people think. >> reporter: hillary clinton is already looking past super tuesday, focusing on trump. >> at some point, you can't just say whatever pops into your head if you want to be the president of the united states of america. >> reporter: tracie potts, nbc news, washington. >> and donald trump picking up a big endorsement on the eve of super tuesday from nascar ceo
brian france. at a rally, france and other current and former drivers gave trump their official backing, even were called up to the microphone. a nascar official says france's decision is a private, personal decision. the endorsement prompting marcus lemonis to tweet, quote, there's no place for political endorsements in any business. your customers should have their own mind. >> well, there we go. lots more debate, of course. let's continue that debate. joining us now is morris reid, partner at mercury public affairs and a former deputy director of vice president gore's campaign. and joe watkins, a former white
house aide to president george h.w. bush. great to have you both with us. morris, let's kick it off with you, if we may. as we focus on this democratic side of super tuesday, is this now hillary's to lose and therefore is the risk to the downside that she doesn't do well enough during super tuesday? >> well, it'll be clear that there will be momentum coming out of the super tuesday for her. i think that bernie sanders has enough money and he'll continue the race because it's now become a movement for him. but it will be clear that hillary will gain momentum. you can see she's starting to turn her focus to trump. they're looking past super tuesday now to the general. >> well, looks like the polls show that trump is leading in most, if not all, of the states. is it too late for some of the republicans that oppose him to stop him? >> i think it's going to be really hard for most of the other folks in the field. right now he ought to win at least eight of those contests out of 11 tonight. he may win more. he probably will come in second
in texas to ted cruz. that actually helps him because if he can keep cruz in the race long enough and knock out rubio on the 15th, if he beats rubio in florida, that's a big advantage for donald trump. also, you have to remember that in four of those states with proportional delegates being rewarded based on how many votes you get, donald trump, four of his opponents are polling under 20%, which means they'll get no delegates. cruz is polling under 20% in three of those states, which means he'll get no delegates either. donald trump will end up winning a lot of delegates on super tuesday. it ought to be a big night for him. >> morris, from the democrats' perspective, who do the democrats want to come out on top of this slug fest that's happening on the republican side at the moment? >> cruz or donald trump could be an interesting race. this is hillary clinton running. the clintons have a knack of turning out the republicans. so no matter who's on the
republican side, it will be a difficult, competitive, and maybe even nasty campaign in the general. but i think that cruz or donald trump could be an interesting race for the democrats. >> i mean, my question, joe, is what happens for the republican party if trump does dominate super tuesday, as you predict, even if he doesn't win texas? can the party get behind him? i think he only has about five actual republican lawmakers backing him at this point. there's now a new meme on twitter, #nevertrump, that's being perpetuated by the republican party. can they really rally behind trump? >> well, that of course is the million dollar question. right now there are people who have said that they wouldn't support him, but we know in politics, what you say today may not hold up tomorrow. after all, some of the people endorsing him said they would never want him to -- they would never support him already. chris christie said you don't want to support donald trump, and he was one of the first endorsers of donald trump. i think you'll see more mainstream republicans come out in support of trump as he begins
to look like the eventual republican nominee. but time will tell. there are a lot of wounds that need to be healed. trump is a very different kind of candidate. he would be a very, very different kind of nominee as well. >> morris -- >> i don't think he's all bad for the republican party, to be frank with you. the fact is that 40, 50, 60 million people have tuned in because of donald trump. now, he may say some outlandish, appalling things at times. i think you'll see him temper that if he becomes the nominee. but this guy has helped galvanize the american people to follow politics at a time when traditionally they're not paying attention. so i don't think it's all bad. >> morris, he certainly has galvanized a big portion of support. one other name, of course, who could galvanize another portion of support is mayor bloomberg. is he, in fact, the biggest threat to hillary clinton right now if he were to decide to come into this race? >> the biggest threat to hillary's campaign is not being able to connect with voters. this has been her achilles hill.
this is why you've seen the rise of bernie sanders. i think bernie sanders has been very helpful to mrs. clinton in getting her game ready for the general election. but i don't believe you'll see bloomberg get in the race unless it's a trump and bernie sanders or a cruz and bernie sanders race. there's no space for him if hillary clinton is in the race. >> very quickly, joe, you think this "new york times" tape that they have allegedly having trump off the record going back on some promises is going to hurt him? >> well, trump so far has been teflon. nothing sticks to him. there have been so many instances already in the last seven or eight months where we thought that there was a smoking gun that was going to be a campaign killer for donald trump. none of it has worked. nothing has stuck to him. i wouldn't expect this to stick either. >> not even the kkk stuff. >> what will stick is the fact that when you become a general election nominee, you can't just go and hie ber lees and sound bites. you have to have a plan and
strategy. >> gents, we're going to have to leave it there. joe and morris, pleasure to have you with us this morning. >> come back for the general election. that's going to be interesting. when we come back, remember that cruise ship forced to turn around last month after being caught in an awful storm? well, it's headed back to port again today. we'll tell you why. >> but first, as we head to break, here's today's forecast from the weather channel's jen carfagno. >> sara and wilfred, on this super tuesday, we've got some super soaker of a storm system. a lot of rain expected, as well as severe weather. let's get started. we've got 8 of 14 states in primary today voting dealing with the active weather. so we are looking at severe weather, which is going to be timing out from morning to afternoon and early evening, moving from west to east today. time will be everything in heading out to the polls across the southern states in the tennessee valley. then we have the snowy side of things and wintry weather across wisconsin into michigan. even the chicago area dealing with another blast of wintry weather. the east is dry for now.
across the board. we're seeing futures tick higher. actually, they've been improving all morning long throughout the hour. dow futures now up 132. s&p futures up 16. nasdaq futures up 41. we start the month, it looks like, on a high note after february closed lower. the dow did manage to close higher for the month. we'll see what happens. oil is higher after a strong finish for asian stocks overnight. >> indeed. a super tuesday perhaps for markets as well as politics. in washington news today, clarence thomas breaks his silence for the first time in a decade. the supreme court justice spoke during oral arguments on monday. he asked ten questions in a case over banning someone with a misdemeanor domestic violence conviction from owning a gun. he has said he doesn't need to ask questions, as he relies on written briefs in a case. >> that was big news yesterday when he spoke up. well, stop me if you've heard this one before. the royal caribbean's anthem of
seas cruise ship will cut its latest trip two days short because of a severe storm forecast. it's the same ship that actually sailed into an atlantic storm early february, forcing passengers to stay in their rooms for 12 hours. royal caribbean tweeted that some of the guests on the current trip are have experienced norovirus symptoms, but that's not why the company is cutting the voyage short. sounds like a nightmare of a vacation. >> absolutely does. hope they'll get back safely. a passing in the world of hollywood. oscar winning actor george kennedy has died. kennedy won best supporting actor for the 1967 movie "cool hand luke." he played a convict. in late years, he became a recognizable character actor with roles in "airport" and "the naked gun" series. george kennedy died at home in idaho. he was 91 years old. >> when we come back on the show, this morning's top
triple-point gains at the open. >> we'll have david einhorn's new performance numbers straight ahead. >> and forget the plastic toy. your kid's next happy meal could come with a virtual reality headset. it's march 1st, 2016. you're watching "worldwide exchange." >> good morning. welcome to "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. i'm sara eisen. >> and i'm wilfred frost. let's check in on global marks this morning. futures pointing to a healthy positive open. the dow called up by around 130 points. 136 to be precise. the s&p called to open higher by about 15 points. the dow breaking its losing streak in february, closing just in positive territory. although, the s&p and nasdaq were down for the month as a whole. much better performance in february across the board than we saw in january. quick look also at european trade, which is managing to hold
on to gains, having had a very slightly negative open. it's now focusing on the gains we've seen in asia as opposed to the selloff late in wall street yesterday. the ftse 100 is up 0.8% despite around a 10% slide for barclays shares. more on that in a moment. let's have a look at asia, where we've seen shanghai close up by 1.8%. focusing more on that rrr cut yesterday than on some data out overnight, which was a little disappointing. >> the policy easing they announced after the market closed. though, it didn't help our markets yesterday. let's show you the broader market picture. we have seen a divergence. oil marching higher with stocks going lower yesterday. oil is higher again today. perhaps stocks actually following suit this morning. wti crude above $34 a barrel. that happened in the last hour or so. 34.22. brent, the international benchmark, has also ticked higher by 1%. almost to $37 a barrel. significant moves up in the price of oil. let's show you some of the safe
haven trades, which were in demand yesterday, and are now reversing. a better sign for better sentiment today. ten-year, 1.75. in terms of the dollar, really making a move higher against the euro over the last 24 hours. the euro is at a one-month low. we're in the 1.08 region. we were like 1.10 last week. so 1.0866. a strong dollar. it's also a strong dollar against the japanese yen, which is a better sign for sentiment today as well. that was a reversal from earlier after a weak batch of data out of japan. and the british pound finally getting some relief. we've still got a few months until brexit. there are still risks around this currency. gold strengthening even with some gains in equities and some gains in the dollar. there is certainly a healthy bid for gold today. 1241, near a one-year high. >> let's get to some top stock stories. barclays reporting a full-year net loss of 394 million pounds
and slashing future dividend payments. the company plans to restructure its business into two core divisions, focusing on its key markets of the u.k. and the u.s. barclays will exit assets in a number of other regions. here's ceo jes staley talking to our colleagues in europe earlier. >> we're cutting the dividend for a very simple reason. we need to accelerate the closure of our noncore business. if we can get the majority of our noncore businesses, things like the italian retail business, which we sold recently, or the u.s. wealth management business that we sold recently, if we can close these transactions and just have barclays illuminate the core franchise that we have as a transatlantic bank with a strong consumer franchise, corporate bank, and investment bank and let the profitability of that core business stand for itself, barclays would be in a very good position. >> we'll hear much more from staley later this morning. a live interview on "squawk box"
at 6:05 eastern time. well worth watching. the share price has slid significantly during trade today. more corporate news. a legal victory for apple. a judge ruling late yesterday that the justice department can't force the tech giant to provide the fbi with access to locked iphone data in a routine brooklyn drug case. it's important to note this isn't the case involving the phone of the san bernardino shooters. analysts suggest yesterday's ruling could help apple in its argument there. >> and some deal news to tell you about this morning. new york stock exchange owner i.c.e. says it's krri inconside bid for the london stock exchange. no approach has been made so far, and no decision has been made as to whether to pursue an offer. >> much in demand, the london stock exchange. good news for david einhorn and his investors. green light capital is one of
the first hedge funds to post positive returns this year. green light gained 1.9% in february, leaving the fund up 3.3% for the first two months of 2016. bets on retailers macy's and di di dillards have helped so far this year. >> the ism manufacturing index out at 10:00 a.m. eastern time. it is expected to edge up slightly in february. a possible sign the downturn in the sector is coming close to bottoming out. also, we'll get that services number on thursday. january construction spending is also out today at 10:00 a.m. we'll also get the first look every month at consumer demand with auto sales. that'll trickle out throughout the day. medtronic, auto zone, and kate spade all reporting results before the opening bell. we'll also get a look at the health of the auto sector. landon dowdy joins with us three things to watch.
>> good morning. auto sales coming off a record in 2015. today we'll hear from ford, general motors, fiat chrysler. sales numbers, economists say lower prices at the pump are fueling sales for trucks and suvs. while february is typically the slowest month of the year for auto sales, analysts are fraftding 17.7 million units sold. that would be the highest for the month since 2000 according to auto shopping site edmonds.com. second, pricing. with many anticipating we're in near peak auto sales t raising concern pricing will come under pressure, forcing dealers to raise incentives to secure sales. a third thing to watch, auto stocks. the sector is already under pressure. if the report shows the slightest disappointment, we could seize investors hit the brakes. >> even good news has been bad news for these stocks. not much of a lift. landon, thank you. now to today's top trending stories. we've got a few good ones today. starting with this one that you
mentioned. you didn't sound excited though. mcdonald's introducing happy meals that double as virtual reality headsets. the boxes can be folded to hold a smartphone and will be paired with a virtual reality skiing game. the high-tech happy meals will be able for a limited time and only this month in sweden. >> i hadn't seen this graphic yet. it made me more enticed to try it out. it's also a nice excuse to go to the golden arches and have a mcdonald's, which i haven't done for a while. the next one, google is taking the blame for one of its self-driving cars crashing into a municipal bus in california. the car struck the side of the bus at 2 miles per hour, resulting in no injuries. google saying we clearly bear some responsibility because if our car hadn't moved, there wouldn't have been a collision. although, it's not quite like this was a dangerous collision of any sort. but any headlines on this are going to slow down the
development. >> you can bet this one is going to be dissected carefully and google will be defensive. when we come back, today's must-read stories. our picks, we're covering politics and the economy on this super tuesday. and yes, a wilfred favorite. a possible brexit. stay tuned. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide.
there today on politicingss on super tuesday. i went for today's "wall street journal" because it went to the economics of this election. the title "makes depressions great again." here's a quote that stuck out. reviving trade, they say, is crucial to driving faster growth, yet the paradox of trade politics is that it is least popular when economic anxiety is high and thus trade is most crucial. the trump candidacy thus introduces a new and dangerous element of economic risk. the board going after trump for some of his protectionist talk on trade, china stealing our jobs, we need to have tariffs on them. though, we should point out hillary clinton and bernie sanders are against the tpp trade deal with asia. other candidates also bashing china, bashing free trade, something "the wall street journal" argues in this post-economic crisis environment of slow growth we need desperately at this time for the global economy. >> we do indeed.
interestingly, my pick today is not totally dissimilar. "the financial times" article is titled "donald trump, victor orban and the west's great walls." building barriers is not the solution to the problems of the world or the west, butter this in danger of finding that their voters have stopped listening. it outlines some of the reasons for why we're getting these calls for protection measures. people fearing mass immigration, being increasingly skeptical of globalization. there's certainly themes both sides of the atlantic that see a massive rise in popular support for these types of people. >> this is the brexit conversation as well. >> and sparked by slightly different reasons in the u.s. and europe, but nonetheless seeing these types of characters doing well. >> yep. all right, we're approaching the top of the hour. the team is getting ready for "squawk box." joe kernen joins us now from new york, who surely has some ideas on this.
no matter how many op-eds come out that say trump's policies won't work, his momentum continues to surge. >> the whole walsh is l issue i interesting one. even in europe, just securing a border doesn't mean you're keeping everyone out. i think that's what we miss sometimes about the issue here. i was watching the former mexican president on yesterday on some cable show. he doesn't -- he understands that an absolutely porous border isn't in anyone's interest. he tried to, you know, get something done, and it never passed congress. both sides are aware that the current state is not ideal either. i was looking at -- you picked one -- like you said, sara, it's interesting. the journal at this point keys on trump and his anti-trade policies when they're probably not as draconian as either
hillary clinton or bernie sanders. the president is having his own problem getting tpp through. but you know the establishment -- we knew it was coming, establishment republicans. i think "the wall street journal" probably fits that mold. just the sheer vol yaum of anti-trump stuff today. we have staring at the conservative gutter, donald trump gives credence to the less caricature of bigoted. gop cage fights make democrats winners, showing that some republicans will never vote for trump. every one of them today. it's super tuesday. i don't know if it's going to do anything. he still looks good in all these races. in spite of all that, markets up triple digits. oil is over 34. maybe we'll have a strong session after a weird one yesterday. that wasn't oil, wias it? >> it wasn't. oil closed up 3% and the market dipped. >> although, as you rightly say today, joe, we're called to open
by triple digits, focusing more on asia. >> china's currency went up last night. that was key. >> indeed. lots more coming up. joe, thank you for that. coming up here on "worldwide exchange," march is traditionally the start of one of the best times of the year for stocks. will 2016 hold the pattern? we'll ask the chief global strategist at weeden & co. in a few minutes time. and don't miss a live interview on "squawk box" with barclays ceo jes staley. >> and happy birthday today to justin bieber, who's all of 22 years old. >> my gosh. only 22. >> we'll be right back. mom, dad. son. now that fedex has streamlined our e-commerce and helped us grow our business, i think it's time we start acting like a business. ok. -here we go... oh, look at this... ok, so number one. no personal items are permitted in the workplace... ..so those will need to come down. we'll be doing some mandatory testing. and there's also a strict no dating policy.
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and if you thought that was amazing, you just wait. ♪ earth hour is about empowering people making a difference to change climate change with passion and excitement earth hour is about inspiring climate action celebrating a global movement and impact ♪ join us at earthhour.org 19th march at 8:30pm ♪ good morning. futures pointing to a higher start for wall street, up triple digits. the dow futures now up 120. s&p futures up 14. nasdaq futures up 37, recovering from a late-day selloff on wall street yesterday. joining us in studio to discuss
this is michael purvis. looks like we'll start march on a high note. we've been struggling to find the narrative for this market. yesterday oil went up, and stocks went down. we thought those two were tied at the hip. now what is it? >> right. well, i think some of the crude oil with xps correlation has been tick for tick most of the time. yesterday was an interesting standout there. i think one of the other concepts that's happening underneath all that is currencies. one of the reasons why i had sort of shifted from more of a range bound to a bullish stance over the last three or four weeks is if you step back for a second and look at the u.s. dollar, what's happened to that is the basket of developed it market currencies relative to the dollar, it just kind of failed. last year the whole story was about the dollar was the big tightening mechanism. it was going to destroy corporate earnings, be an economic tightener as well. but the dollar rally really started fading. you started seeing signs of that
technically early in the year. i think that translated into support for equities, which you're seeing, and also a little bit of a tail wind for crude oil as well. that's been constructive. >> it's all about currencies. >> isn't it fair to say that movement in the dollar is not as broad based as it perhaps had been certainly late last year, but even in january as well? you've got divergence of movement. how do you really play that? it's not a simple risk-on, risk-off trade. >> that's a good point. it's a little nuanced. first of all, look the a the emerging market currency basket. going back to the huge volatility that erupted in late august, really it was off china and sort of broader emfx. when the dollar started surging, you had an increase in tail risk of em, macro blowups, and real slowdown in emerging markets. one of the charts i liked was to overlay xps with crude but also with the adxy, which is an emerging market currency basket.
what's happened recently is there's a developed market component. the weakness in the dollar that happened earlier late january into early february, somewhat factoring off this negative nominal gain, it's nudged the fed into a much more dovish stance, has been, you know, lately more the sort of key support driver. you really need em currencies to stabilize. you saw that this morning overnight. i think you also need to see the developed market currency, not dollar not be too strong against the euro or the yen. >> though we are at a one-month high heading into the ecb next week. >> exactly. what i'm watching is let's see what kind of jobs with e ge get this week. lately, to your point, sara, if you look at the citibank surprise indexes for europe relative to the u.s., well, a lot of last year, europe was actually outperforming the u.s. relative to expectations. that's just in the last three
weeks. that's really reversed. which explains part of this euro weakness. >> let's get your call on gold as well. it's been a great start to the year. are we finding resistance now as we try to push into the high 1200s. it doesn't seem to want to breakthrough that level. >> gold has been overbought. you have to look at technicals. gold has been overbought on the daily charts. for the most it's been in years, which i think is a bit of a signal there's a trend reversal going on. from a very short-term point of view, will it be consolidating some of this move? it has. but it's been consolidating in a constructive way if you're bullish gold, which i am right four in. i think the other factor i want to make about gold is it's not, to my mind, the fact that gold has been performing is not a risk-off signal. gold can correlate positively with u.s. equities. it really comes back to this key factor of what is the dollar doing? when the dxy failed to really
push through, that coincided with the gold rally there, which is also kind of mirroring what happens in equities. >> so you like the u.s. stock market right here, right now, as long as the dollar doesn't get too strong. is the strategy here to buy multinationals, big u.s. companies with exposure abroad that will get relief with this weaker dollar? >> yes, but you have to be careful where that exposure is. some economies will be doing better than others. i think even broader in the u.s. stock market, you can look at small caps, look across the spectrum there. i think u.s. equities right now are where you want to be long. >> michael, thank you. >> not long left in the show. let's have a quick look at futures before we leave. we're pointing to about 130 point gain for the dow, focusing
on positive european and asian trade. 120 points we're called to open higher for the dow. "squawk box" is coming up next. your path to retirement may not always be clear. but at t. rowe price, we can help guide your retirement savings. so wherever your retirement journey takes you, we can help you reach your goals. call us or your advisor t. rowe price. invest with confidence.
good morning. in like a lion. it's the first day of march, and traders are waking up to big green arrows for global stocks. apple versus the fbi. a judge in brooklyn ruling the government cannot compel apple to open a locked iphone used by a suspected drug dealer. and it's a big day for politics, as you know. voters in a dozen states head to the polls to pick their candidate for the nomination of their party for president. it's super tuesday, march 1st, 2016. "squawk box" begins right now.
live from new york, where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box." >> good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. we're going to start with the markets. it was a leap year jinx for stocks yesterday. you saw the losses yesterday push the s&p 500 into negative territory for the month. that is the third straight monthly decline for the s&p and for the nasdaq. take a look this morning. you'll see things are setting up to turn around at least a bit. the dow futures indicated up by 121 points above fair value. the thatnasdaq up by 36. overnight in asia, the hang seng and china's shanghai composite both closing up better than 1.5%. japan also closing higher. the nikkei up by about 0.3%. in europe in the early trading, there are some green arrows across the board. big gains for the dax, which is up by about 1.5%. in italy, that market also up by about 1%. also, we're keeping an eye o