tv Squawk Box CNBC March 4, 2016 6:00am-9:01am EST
"squawk box." good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. happy friday. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sor kin. as joe mentioned, it is jobs friday. we'll be getting the government's employment data for february at 8:30 a.m. eastern. economists expect the payroll to increase by 200,000. they're looking for the unemployment rate to remain steady at 4.9%. i think the average hourly wages are expected to be up 0.2%. let's check out the u.s. equity futures. you'll see this morning that there are some very modest advances. the dow futures up by about eight points. s&p up by less than a point. if the dow and s&p were to finish up today, it would be four days in a row, and that's the first time that would have happened since october. green arrows in asia overnight. the hang seng gaining more than 1%. the nikkei and shanghai composite both looking at modest advances as well. overseas in europe, right now in
the early trading most of the major averages are trading higher. the dax is up by better than o.6%. the cac and ftse both sitting just under 0.6% higher. north korean leader kim jong-un has ordered his country to be ready to use its nuclear weapons at any time. he told the military to be in pre-emptive mode attack. the saber rattling follows harsh new sanctions imposed by the u.n. over north korea's nuclear program. also, new data this morning on where investors are putting their money to work. nearly $5 billion went to riskier, u.s.-based junk bond funds. that's making the group's largest inflows on record. federal prosecutors have now moved to dismiss the indictment of chesapeake energy founder aubrey mcclendon, as expected, following his death. mcclendon died in that fiery one-car crash the day after being indicted. a law enforcement source tells cnbc that the justice department's broader
investigation into possible collusion in the oil and gas industry is ongoing. generating buzz this morning and all day yesterday, what a day, the fiery gop debate following the mitt romney takedown. john harwood joins us now from washington with the highlights. i stayed up pretty late, john. saw most of it. >> reporter: couldn't make it to the end, huh? >> i couldn't make it all the way to the end. it was kind of like the others. there's only four people left up there. makes it hard to put someone in the middle. >> reporter: when you only have four people, you can focus your insults more tightly. look, this republican debate is getting to places we haven't seen before. incredible amount of schoolyard taunting and attacks. marco rubio, who earlier in the campaign talked about running a campaign that didn't attack other republicans, it was focused on the 21st century,
justified his attacks on donald trump. he's done it over the last two weeks, and he justified it again last night. >> this came pain for the last year, donald trump has mocked everyone with personal attacks. he's done so to people sitting on the stage today. he's done so to people who are disabled. if there's anyone who's ever deserved to be attacked that way, it's donald trump. >> reporter: now, donald trump of course responded, and he responded in a way that we haven't seen before in any presidential campaign forum, much less a nationally televised debate. take a listen to how he responded to rubio. >> he hit my hands. nobody has ever hit my hands. i've never heard of this. look at those hands. are they small hands? and, he referred to my hands, if they're small, something else must be small pip guarantee there's no problem. >> reporter: joe, i just don't know what to say after that. i've covered politics for a long
time, and i haven't heard that before. >> you heard the initial insult. that he has small hands. >> reporter: and i was dumb struck. i'm still dumb struck. >> if someone was implying something about me, i might say i'm fine in that area. >> reporter: that's true, you might. >> i don't know. i'll try it on you sometime. you're not just going to sit there and go, oh, yeah, i guess i could do a little better. >> reporter: yes, i am. >> oh, you're right, i'm not much in that category. problem my whole life. rubio started it. he said he's got small hands and you know what that means. actually, john, did you see that analysis? it was really well done. it was on politico or something. a guy took a bunch of pictures, shots of trump's hands in reference. went back and looked to see if
there was any truth that they were small. they said he's 6'2". it came out they were -- you know, i don't know where that came from. i have no idea, but it's stupid we're even talking about it. >> it started from the short fingers. >> maybe it came from that. i thought megyn kelly's question to rubio was better but not answered. she quoted him from three weeks ago saying he would never get down in the muck because he's only going to talk about polpol. he wouldn't be able to face his children. he then went on to talk about spray tan and hand size and we're not going to make america great, we're going to make it orange. he spent a week doing that to no avail in terms of the numbers. the other thing with kasich, he's been very -- the adult in the room. the adult in the room has managed about 4% in most of the
states that have voted so far. i don't know. i don't know what to tell you. >> reporter: that's a fair observation about kasich, although i think when you have a smaller debate stage and kasich has more ability to talk and get his message out that, benefits him, and it benefitted him last night. he wasn't going there. >> when we him on here, it's a great forum for him. debates are not his -- i don't know. he always falls back to the record thing. >> i feel like i've heard a lot from jay kasich on the debate, given his ranking in the polls. >> and he's saying he never -- a lot of people -- they also blame the debate questioners for why they're not doing well in the polls. because you haven't given me enough time. a lot of time, that's the result of the polls not really putting them in a position where they deserve a lot of time. i don't know. it's always a chicken, egg thing. which came first?
the media coverage or the popularity of the candidate itself. >> we in the media play some role in determining what gets air time and what gets exposed. so your point is taken. but listen, guys, can i talk about something else? >> you going to talk about romney? >> you going to talk about romney? that was surreal. or you can talk about duke. >> no i want to talk about the fact that later today i'm going to have an exclusive sit-down interview with hillary clinton. talk about her economics plan, her jobs plan. that's the other side of the presidential campaign debate. she's in a strong position against bernie sanders, but she's not done. she hasn't finished locking up this nomination yet. she's going to be giving a speech in detroit outlining her jobs plan. we'll sit down with her after that. >> you going to talk about the elephant in the room, or you just going to -- they going to tell you what to talk about? >> you've got to be kidding me. i'm going to talk about what needs to be talked about. >> well, what you think needs to be talked about or what someone
else might think needs to be talked about? >> the obvious question you're referring to, yes. >> all right. . good, john. i'm counting on you. i'll be watching you. i'll be watching you and your very large hands, man hands. all right. thank you. >> hey, becky. >> yes? >> will you be the hall monitor of this show? can you control this guy? >> you couldn't wait to get to that sound. can you palm a basketball? i don't think you can. >> i definitely cannot palm a basketball. >> i can't either. >> and i definitely can't dunk one. >> usually, joe, when i dunk, i have to grip it with both hands, otherwise you can lose it when you get up to the rim. >> yeah, when you dunk, sure. who did we see dunk the other day? >> steve balmer. did it with a trampoline. >> for me, you'd have to do that too. mine is adjustable, the one i have in the driveway. i'd have to lower it and have the trampoline to get anywhere
close to that. but you're number 17 now. duke is back up there. >> carolina this weekend. last game. >> we got creighton on saturday. xavier. all right. see you later, john. thank you. we're counting down to the february jobs report. we are just hour away from february's big jobs number. telling us what to expect right now is michelle gerard, rbs' chief analyst. michelle, start off telling us what you're expecting today. the average consensus is 200,000. >> we're right around that level a little better. 210,000. i have to tell you, i was worried that we might see a weaker print. some of the numbers have softened a little bit. when you look at it, there are some categories last month that were just unusually low. so if we don't get a revision,
it's hard bottoms up to get a much weaker number. i feel like we sort of might be due for a temporary setback. i think the economy is holding in much better than people feared. so i wouldn't be inclined to overreact if this number is a little softer. i have to admit, i'm a little watchful that perhaps we might -- we just seem overdue for a little bit softer print given some of the other numbers that we've seen. >> julian, how does wall street react? are they looking for one of these goldilocks numbers again, one not too weak but one not too strong where feds are forced to raise rates sooner rather than later? >> i think you have an acceptable range. we're on the low end, 175. the point is what's happened is the negativity over this first two months has built so sen intensely, such that you're at a point that all you have to do is surprise positively by the smallest of increments and you
have an outsized positive market reaction. that's a good place for both the economy and the stock market. >> so that suggests the street really does want to be reassured we're not heading into a recession. >> that is. but at the same time, you have after fed that if you look at the january minutes, they use the word uncertainty 19 times. that tells us that they're going to be very hesitant. they're going to want to see more data. maybe pce creeping towards their 2% target before they get aggressive the next hike. >> you know, richard fischer, the former dallas federal reserve president, was here this weekend. he said they need to raise rates quickly, sometime between now and august. if it hasn't happened by august, they're not going to be able to do it during an election season. >> i have to say, i personally don't think that is as much of a concern when you're already in the process. i think it's hard to initiate a tightening cycle close to the september, october time frame
where you could risk unsettling markets. but when you're in the middle of a tightening cycle, to kind of carry forward, i don't think that's going to be a significant input into the fed's decision. i mean, i think in general, the timing that we're all thinking about, that they'll probably move in june, then perhaps september. those kinds of predictable, gradual adjustments i don't think should be a problem. >> like a quarter point hike shouldn't seem like it's a big deal in any direction, but when you start looking at the potential strength of the dollar when you have other nations that are at negative interest rates, that's what concerns people so much at this point. every quarter point is going to make the dollar that much stronger and put that much more pressure on our exports and on our markets. >> well, again, i think here the fed does take a little bit longer view. it's absolutely true that, you know, if the fed moves and people anticipate further moves in the future, there's going to be some upward pressure on the
dollar. but ultimately, if that helps for other currencies to somewhat weaken, which then helps global economies to do better, they're in a sense borrowing some growth from the u.s. in the longer run, that comes around to actually helping our exports. from is a bit of a rebalancing. >> does the fed actually think about that? >> we've heard the fed. >> we're going to give a little growth away, we don't care about other economies. >> they have talked about the fact that ultimately a stronger dollar can boost exports in the longer run if it does help global growth. so i think that -- >> man, that is a long thought process. >> i don't think so. i think the market gets too shortsighted in terms of the fact -- >> if we start thinking about the dual mandate that turns into the triple mandate, the idea we're thinking about trying to help other economies so that they can then in turn buy more from us. >> i'm not trying to say that as much as i'm trying to say people say the fed can't hike because
of the dollar, and people only focus on the fact that a strong dollar is immediately negative for u.s. growth. i think the fed tries to stress out that if you really think it through, ultimately it's not clear if the u.s. -- i'm not trying to say they're trying to help other currencies in the currency war. if the fed doesn't move, it puts more pressure on other central banks to have to ease as we've seen. you start this cycle that ultimately it's sort of a race to the bottom. other central banks have to do more easing. then where does that stop? >> i see what you're saying. julian? >> one of the untold positive stories at last five or six weeks is that if you look, not only has oil bottomed and credit improved, but lo and behold, the commodity currencies, the ones that have been feeling the most pressure, the canadian dollar, the mexican peso, the australian dollar, they have strengthened, and it's not a-typical for the
currencies to have already discounted what the fed has done. we've seen actually peaks in the dollar at the start of rate hike cycles in the past. i think that's definitely part of, you know, the fed feeling a bit more reassured. >> would you tell people to buy stro stocks here? you think we're stabilizing? >> yes. we feel good. our year-end price target is 2175. we feel like this negativity bubble that built the first couple months has really been eased by the fact that you've essentially taken recession off the table to a great extent over the course of 2016. and expectations are very low. as we all know, the market is a game of expectations. valuation is good, particularly against a subdued yield. >> thank you both for coming in today. >> thank you. coming up, gop unfighting hitting a fever pitch yesterday with former republican nominee
mitt romney bashing trump and urging the party to elect any of the other three candidates. he would like a brokered convention. therefore, if each one wins their own state, no one gets a majority. then in some diluted notion, he thinks the party might come to him for another replay of four years ago. right. we will talk presidential politics and last night's debate with former governors bill richardson and jedd gregg. that's next. in your dreams.
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sounds like my ride's ready. don't get stuck on hold. reach an expert fast. comcast business. built for business. it was a slug fest in detroit last night. if you went to bed early, here are some of the highlights. >> this little guy has lied so much -- >> here we go. >> -- about my record. >> look at those hands. are they small hands? and he referred to my hands, if they're small, something else must be small. i guarantee you there's no problem. >> breathe, breathe. >> lying ted. >> you can breathe. i know it's hard. >> when they're done with the yoga, can i answer a question? >> you cannot. i really hope we don't see yoga on this stage. >> well, he's very flexible, so
you never know. >> everybody loves the -- yeah, it's our fault. >> because we watch it. >> no, because we get such a kick out of it. prickly, prickly. they got to throw the prickly term in there. size matters. they've got him -- >> the whole thing is so embarrassing. >> well, you're so above any talk like that. joining us now -- you embarrassed? >> i'm embarrassed for all of us. >> for the country. >> it's hard not to be. this is what it's become. >> right, okay. >> you don't feel that way, a little bit? >> i think that ronald reagan would probably be like, whoa. >> ronald reagan who wouldn't go into the oval office without a jacket on. >> probably all the bushes. they're all like, what is this? anyway, the reaction to mitt romney's takedown of donald trump, that's going to be something we talk about. former new hampshire governor and u.s. senator jed gregg is here. and former new mexico governor
bill richardson. they're going to have different views, obviously. jed, i'm going to start with you. i kind of think of you as sort of republican establishment, but then i don't think of you as republican establishment. but what is your take on the notion that the establishment now thinks that if they, i don't know, disrespect the -- whatever you want to call donald trump, whatever you want to call the people backing him, what if they were to say, we're just not going to listen to you and do what we want to do and select who we think passes muster? what would that do in the general election? those 35 worst would say, you're on your own, wouldn't they? >> probably, yes. i'm glad you think of me, joe, by the way. that's very nice of you. >> i do, often. >> i think there's no question about what donald trump has done has brought into the political process a lot of folks who historically haven't
participated in the process at all, or if they have, they've been marginal players. from both sides of the aisle, he brings in a fair amount. the simple fact is the numbers work in his favor right now. if he were to win florida, that would be game, set, match for rubio. if he wins michigan, it's going to be a blow to kasich. although, i think kasich did extroe extraordinarily well last night. my view is trump is headed towards the nomination, we're just going to have to figure out how to deal with that as a party. >> what do you think went into that romney speech? it was 17 minutes. it incapsulated every perceived flaw, misstep, or criticism that had been leveled at trump over the last six months or even longer than that. was there a closed door meeting
somewhere? which republican elder would have led that? do you know behind the scenes what happened, jedd? >> no, i don't. but let's be honest about this. there are no republican elders. in this scenario today, in this fact pattern today, republican elders, even if they existed, would be basically out on the street corner. mitt romney spoke to people who already felt the way he felt, which is that donald trump is crass and erratic, which i happen to agree with. but he didn't speak to the trump base, which is basically frustrated with people like mitt romney and people, i guess, like myself when i'm establishment. when i'm not establishment, hopefully they haven't. they're just basically frustrated and angry. they're looking for somebody who expresses that frustration and anger. donald trump is a showman. he's shown he knows how to do it. >> he certainly had more fire in
his belly yesterday in trying to defeat trump than in trying to defeat barack obama. i don't know. governor richardson, you're watching this. i mean, i'm reading a lot of stuff from the left side of the aisle. i saw one guy, you can quote me, ha-ha-ha-ha was his quote for the debate. tickled to bedeath by all this. >> well, it was the most incredibly negative yet entertaining debate i'd ever seen. i think i've seen every one. here's my take as a democrat. there's two schools. one school that says trump will be the nominee and will be size to defeat, johnson versus goldwater, over 40 states. that's a traditional view. there are others like myself that think hillary clinton will be our nominee and will win, but we've got to be very careful because trump has tapped into a
negativity, a populism that's out there, and i think we have to work extra hard, we the democrats, with young voters. we have to work the turnout of the base, make sure they get out. african-americans, hispanics, it's a little mixed now. i think we also have to find ways to, yes, defeat bernie sanders, but keep the sanders coalition, which is significant in the democratic party, reasonably happy and acceptable to hillary clinton. so she has a little balancing to do, but i think she has the skills to do it. >> that's the same -- you know, you could have been describing the other side too. bernie sanders is keying on some of the dissatisfaction and anger as well, and hillary clinton has to walk the same line the republicans need to walk to not totally alienate that party. you don't want those people staying home. you don't want young people staying home if bernie sanders isn't -- >> yoe, i don't want to break in on bill, because i really do enjoy his analysis.
i think his comment on the debate was pretty accurate. i think the democrats have a bigger structural problem than the republicans. at least donald trump is a capitalist. bernie sanders is a socialist. hillary clinton has moved to the socialist position to try to pre-empt him. they're going to have a lot of trouble getting back from that, quite honestly. she's going to be a strong candidate, i presume, but she's going to have to deal with the fact that her party has moved so far left that they really are no longer -- >> socialists are getting a do over. i read this morning, i saw on twitter socialism is no longer a dirty word to people under 30. we're getting a do over. none of them know it doesn't work. >> somebody forgot the 20th century. >> i think you're going to see in this speech in detroit that hillary clinton is making, this economics speech that john harwood mentioned, she's going to address the fact that the democratic party is going to be a pro-growth party. jobs, economic inequality.
i think that's fueling both parties, the main issue in the election. so i think you're right. the party is swinging to the left. my view is that this is where young people are heading. they're heading towards the left. they're more progressive. whoever captures them is going to win this election. i think the odds are better that we the democrats will do that, but we still in the general election, my view is a centrist candidate wins. trump is, you know, too extreme. he's intellectually dishonest. he's national security. i mean, he's going to have republicans responsible like you turning against him on national security issues. the guy is worse than an isolationist. i think it's going to be an interesting race. however, this populism anger he's tapped into, it's an imponderable. we don't know where it's going to go. but i think the odds are that it'll go more with us. but we shall see.
>> senator gregg, you seem to be much more mild on donald trump today than you have been historically, both on our program and as the show has been going on, i've been going back to look at things you've said about donald trump historically, which have been terribly, terribly negative. to me, it almost demonstrates what seems to be happening in the party, which is to the extent that now it looks like trump is the front runner, everybody is just getting in line. do you feel like you're getting in line? do you feel like you're not being able to say what you've said historically about him? >> no, i think i'm still pretty tough on him. i called him crass and erratic about half a minute ago. the simple fact is that donald trump has, however, brought on this populist base -- >> you said previously he should not be the nominee, right? >> i don't think he should be
the nominee. i think john kasich should be the nominee. honestly, i'd be very disappointed if he is the nominee. it will be very hard for our party to deal with that. >> that's why i started out by saying he's an establishment republican, and there's not a single establishment republican that wanted donald trump to be the nominee. but they all are dealing with the 35% to 40% of the people that have put him in national leads and winning all the debates. >> what's happened over the last couple months, even on the show, is you've had ceos and politicians come on and they'd say, clown, disgrace. they'd use all these words. the farther trump has gotten along, the less they're inclined to be critical. >> as demonstrated by mitt romney, to your point. >> he looks like an anomaly. >> how was the reaction to christie getting on board with trump? did that go well for him? >> in some quarters, yes. in some quarters, no. >> all right.
yeah, sure. okay. thank you -- >> listen, the pathway here you guys are missing is that trump is our nominee. hillary is their nominee. somebody runs as a third party candidate, say bloomberg, carries new york, goes into the house of representatives, and we end up with paul ryan as president. >> or we beg mitt romney to run again. anyway, senator the executive edge stories that will give you a leg up on the trading day ahead. we'll tell you about them, including a preview of today's jobs numbers. new data on start-up investments and a potential comeback for i chipot chipotle. as we head to break, a look at s&p 500 winners and losers.
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welcome back to "squawk box." time now for the executive edge. it is jobs friday. we're going to get the government employment data for february at 8:30 a.m. eastern. economists expect the payroll number to increase by 200,000 and the unemployment rate to remain steady at 4.9%. u.s. equity futures are now slightly higher. i hope we're going -- you're going to do this. this one bored me. >> did it bore you? >> no, this one bored me. the one i want to talk about when we get a chance, did you see the virtual reality? i didn't understand. >> that was cool. >> i didn't understand a virtual reality roller coaster. >> i've been on one before. >> i don't think you have. >> disney. >> the simpsons one makes you feel like you're on a roller coaster. this is one where you're on an
actual roller coaster, but it makes you feel like you're flying. >> you're not in just a box one? >> no, you're on the roller coaster wearing the stuff, so you can feel like -- >> all right. that might make me throw up. >> like, if you go on the simpsons ride, i got almost nauseous. >> at disney, you're in the same place, and it moves you around in that box. >> think if you were actually feeling the g forces of a roller coaster but actually seeing yourself flying with super man. >> i couldn't do that. >> that sounds cool, doesn't it? >> sounds frightening. >> the thing that i don't understand is why you even need to technically be on the roller coaster. >> because when you're in the bock, you don't feel like you're really doing anything. it's kind of lame. >> they jerk you up and down. you sort of feel like you go downhill and lose your stomach. >> but not like when you're on a real roller coaster. >> i caught that, by the way. let's tell you about another story. not as exciting.
"wall street journal" reporting that mutual funds that helped fuel the technology boom are cutting the value of start-up investments at a faster pace. those mutual funds are making fewer investments. it's an ominous sign for silicon valley. this is interesting stuff. there's a lot of people in silicon valley that are up right now. >> this is your unicorn story. >> the journal analyzed 40 mutual start-up investments and found 13 are now officially under water. among those under water positions, snapchat, evernote, which i love and use. and remember, we talked about how they're having sex in the stair wells. >> what? did i miss this? >> there's discarded protection devices, whatever the hell you want to call them. >> are you kidding? >> they're condoms.
there's condoms on the floor in the stairwells of this place. we've had the ceo on our show. >> i don't remember having this conversation with him. >> he's been fired because there's drinking and sex and all sorts of things going on at the office. >> part of the benefits program. >> fringe benefits to come along with it. >> the perks. >> this story i actually like. a new survey found consumers are more willing to eat at chipotle. digital coupons for free entrees in the back half of february may have helped draw customers back in. we didn't want to eat there because we were worried about e. coli, but oh, wait, it's free? we'll be there. chipotle also hired a famous pr firm as they work to recover from the battered sales. sales dropped off incredibly sharply after all the e. coli stories. the firm is best known for helping johnson & johnson recover from the tylenol tampering incident in 1992.
>> my point earlier, when we were talking about where we've sunk to, i think look at the cess pool that is twitter. look where we are as a society. look at tv. look at what's -- >> so sad. >> first episode of "billions." >> what are you trying to say? >> we like tawdry. we're all ready for this now. we're ready for this because -- >> this is where we've evolved to is what you're saying. >> to be cutting edge, to be now. i'm not disparaging it. i'm saying just admit we've come to this point where none of us ought to be going, oh, my god, they talked about hand size. you know what i mean? >> i just don't want the president talking about it. >> i haven't seen "house of cards," but i'm sure that president is probably much cruder. >> he murders people.
>> there you go. >> oh, boy. when wi when we come back this morning, when activists attack. carl icahn pressure d. the company agreed on the spinoff and will ipo later this morning. the ceo will join us next. you're an at&t small business expert? sure am. my staff could use your help staying in touch with customers. at&t can help you stay connected. am i seeing double? no ma'am. our at&t 'buy one get one free' makes it easier for your staff to send appointment reminders to your customers... ...and share promotions on social media? you know it! now i'm seeing dollar signs. you should probably get your eyes checked. good one babe. optometry humor. right now get up to $650 in credits to help you switch to at&t.
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pressure from activist investors, including carl icahn, who started to push for change a little more than a year ago. manitowoc food services being spun off into an independent company, which begins trading this morning. icahn will be the second largest investor in the new company. the ceo of manitowoc food service joins us now aid head o that open. >> which company? >> manitowoc. >> which you don't think about. i think of cranes and stuff. >> well, that's the reason why we have split it. many people thought about cranes when they thought manitowoc. actually, manitowoc ice is the largest ice manufacturer on the planet. every second ice cube consumed in the u.s. comes from our machines. >> i like that. you manufacture ice. >> what's the margin on ice? >> you don't manufacture the water. you just freeze it, right? >> yeah, of course.
you freeze it. >> filtered water? >> oh, yes. sanitation issues. that's very, very important. and that's driving the innovation. we don't talk about margin, but if you look at the industry, it's a very, very, you know, margin-rich industry. it's a good place to be in. >> while you're here, we mentioned chipotle. can you speak to what happened there as you think about your own company and the steps you've taken to keep the food supply safe? >> well, let me not talk specifically about chipotle. let me talk about food safety. >> they're not a client, are they? >> they have equipment from us. it's about food safety and health issues that are driving the need for good equipment. i think chipotle example has shown how difficult it sometimes it is and how difficult it is to adhere to standards and processes. i think they have it under control right now. i don't want to comment on the details of that one, but food
safety and health is driving our equipment demand. so therefore, the chipotle situation has shown how important it is to have good equipment in the kitchen. >> by the way, do you make the ice or just the machines that make the ice? >> we make the machines that make the ice. >> you don't do the ice itself. you're not selling the ice bags. >> no, we're not selling the ice. you bring water in. water gets filtered. i invite you to one of our facilities. >> i'd love to. >> also in mexico. >> we're around the world. >> could you take water that would make a tourist sick and by the time it's made out of ice, would it -- is it filtered to the point where you wouldn't get sick? >> yes, definitely. we use zone technologies for that one. you have sterile environments like health care environments. that's also the market potential. think india. i don't know if you've traveled to india. when you come back, you usually have your issues.
>> really? >> yes, of course. that's all the potential for our machines. >> do people advertise they have your machines there? that would be a selg point for a restaurant. >> they sometimes do, yes. absolutely. we have restaurants that are proud to have manitowoc equipment. >> really? >> yes. >> because even if you have -- i tried just having beer in mexico. but the beer is sitting in a vat of ice. >> the moment you get ice in it, it's probably not sanitary. you don't have a manitowoc ice machine, you still have the problem. >> carl icahn, he's not on your board but has a representative. >> yeah. since we're finally splitting, and you know that today we're debuting on the stock exchange, andrew langham is going to be on our board. >> do you hear from uncle carl every now and then? >> yeah, we have an active
dialogue from all our investors. the board has been very supportive on his ideas. it was the right thing to split the two businesses off. it is really -- the food service business and the crane business are two very different businesses. very different cultures. >> just speak to this in terms of growth and the multiple that should be applied to your company relative to the old crane company. >> the multiples in the food service space. cranes, they're below ten. let's look at what the stock is going to do, but we've seen already that the majority of the value was with the food service business. >> when we look at that last name, think of the poor tv anchor that says what's coming up. first you've got to get through manitowoc. then the ceo's hubertu hubertus muehlhaeuser. very intimidating. >> i nailed it.
>> you were close. you were up all night though. >> calls for a name change. we're going to change manitowoc and i'm going to call myself michael. that's my second name. >> burt. isn't your name hubertus? >> yeah, but not burt. >> good luck with trading today. please come on back. this is a great conversation. you're down in florida? >> yeah, we're down in florida. that's the headquarters. we're going to be there. looking for good people. we have great growth prospectives. bottom line and top line. >> looking for work? >> always. i mean, yeah. looking for good people. >> thank you. >> thank you. >> spread too thin already. >> coming up when we return, the fourth season of netflix's political drama "house of cards" launching overnight. julia boorstin will give us on update on the streaming service's original content and tell us whether season four is binge worthy when we return.
>> all at one time. "house of cards" fourth season, just launched or dropped or whatever we're calling it. the original show back in 2013 kicked off netflix's massive investment in original content. it's helped reinvent netflix as a premium cable alternative of sorts and helped its stock soar about 280% over the past three years. now "house of cards" is just one of the many new movies and tv shows hitting netflix this month. season two of marvell's daredevil launches mid-month and that is $5 billion total on content. a new report estimates netflix's domestic streamed hours are the equivalent of about 6% of all traditional tv hours watched. up from about 4% in 2014. now given that traditional tv hours fell by 3% last year, about half of that change is attributed to netflix. netflix's total viewing is more
than aadoubl double amc's chann. now the question is how netflix competes with the likes of amazon which is ramping up its spending on original content and hbo launching it's standalone to overseas markets. it's about having stand out contend and shows like "house of cards" to convince consumers it's worth paying that monthly fee. >> what's the margin that netflix has relative to the others? >> you mean in terms of the investment in original content? >> do we know. >> we don't know. when you look at hbo it's part of the time warner family. so time warner has a different way of handling this because hbo has a lot of its original content, license movies. netflix right now is spending more on original content than hbo is but netflix is licensing
it for the u.s., for overseas as is hbo. so right now we're seeing hbo ramp up its spending in original content licensing the likes of "sesame street" to get more kids viewing as netflix ramp up. everybody is spending more on content. >> how far behind is amsz? -- amazon? >> i don't know. they are working on their stand alone product. i don't know how far behind amazon is. they have been spending more on original contend but don't have as many originals. >> one thing that amazon does that i want netflix to do, you know when you to on an airplane and can't download the stuff to your ipad -- you know what i'm talking about. amazon on its original programs -- >> only on their original. >> some of the licensed stuff. has to do with whether they have the license or not.
like spotify you can download the music to your device. >> "fuller house" they renewed. >> is there anybody from original on there? >> yes. most. >> they are. >> except for the olsen twins. >> is bob -- >> bob saget. >> olsen twins are in france with sarkozy's half brother. i get confused. how do you know? maybe not. coming up, donald trump defending his tax plan in last night's gop debate in detroit. he invoked the great american larry kudlow. he said everybody agrees with larry.
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the showdown in motown. four remaining republican presidential candidates battling it out in a raucous, rowdy debate in detroit. the high, the loss and the impact on the race to the white house. >> jobs friday and we're counting you down to this morning's big number. how will the markets racket. full analysis ahead. >> a picture worth a thousand words or $16 billion. snap chat raising more money but doesn't mean its value is going up. the second hour of "squawk box" starts right now. ♪ >> announcer: live from the beating heart of business, new york city, this is "squawk box".
♪ welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc, first in business worldwide. i'm joe kernen along with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin and we're 90 minutes away from the february employment report. the economy likely added 200,000 jobs last month. futures are a little bit higher. up 23 now. what if we got 280? >> if you got 280, i don't know. >> one analyst said at this point wall street is hoping. >> you heard trennert yesterday -- >> i'm not going to do the voice. a quarter point is just right. >> you missed it. you left. jason trennert said basically they shouldn't go, terrible thing for them to give back and go negative interest rates. >> that's my argument. if a quarter is really so good to stay this low, then just do
it. do the steroids. go down a point. go negative unless maybe a quarter isn't high enough. is it exactly right? we got it exactly right at a quarter. don't you think at 4.9% unemployment we could have positive interest sfliets an economist doesn't think about negative interest rates. they think -- anyway. >> inflation is coming back. starting to see -- >> average hourly wage growth is 0.2% today. >> we'll see what the real numbers are at 8:00. let's look at the other top stories. snapchat reportedly raising $175 million in fresh funding from fidelity and other investors. "wall street journal" says the messaging app is raising the same money at the same valuation a year ago. not an up round. new data on where investors are putting money to work. $5 billion went to risky engineer u.s. based high yield
junk bond funds marking the group's largest inflows on record. federal prosecutors moving to dismiss the indictment of deceased aubrey mcclendon. the justice department's broader investigation to possible collusion in the natural gas and oil industry is still ongoing. more shoes to drop. >> strange way to read the story. >> which part? >> not you. >> just -- >> the guy is dead. of course the indictment -- it's weird we have to tell them that. >> it's form of process. >> i understand how that works. but you would assume the investigation is ongoing but it no longer includes indictment -- right you have to formally have to drop the indictment. can you indict a dead person you want to -- >> i don't think you could. however, i did talk to a lawyer a few days ago when this first happened. yesterday. no, yesterday who had mentioned
this idea that to the extent that there were going to be other people who they were going to try to bring in, in their case against aubrey mcclendon, it might harder to give them immunity or go after them because you won't have him. it changes the dynamic a lot to the extent there is an ongoing investigation. >> another fiery gop debate in the motor city last night. trump, cruz, rubio and kasich battling it out. it turned into a shout fest with plenty of name calling. >> this little guy has lied so much. >> here we go. >> about my record. >> here we go. >> he has lied. he doesn't go to vote. he's absent. now the people of florida can't stand him. he couldn't get elected dog catcher. >> don't worry about it little marco. don't worry about little marco. >> donald, please, i know it's hard not to interrupt.
breathe. breathe. breathe. can you do it. you can breathe. i know it's hard. i know it's hard -- >> when you're done with yoga can i answer the question. >> you cannot. >> i really hope we don't seo goon this stage. >> he's very flexible so you never know. >> i don't think the people in america are interested in a bunch of bickering school children. >> donald learn not to interrupt. count to ten, donald. count to ten. >> you're the liar. you're the lying guy. >> release the tape. >> excuse me. i've given my answer lying ted. >> let's leave it at that. >> another moment worth noting from last night's debate while defending his tax policy donald trump mentioned our own larry kudlow. >> larry kudlow, great guy. everybody respects him said my plan for taxes and tax cutting is the best by far of everybody. >> joining us right now on the
"squawk" news line is cnbc's senior contributor larry kudlow. good morning to you. do you support trump's tax plan as he's suggesting it? >> i have for quite some time. mostly his business tax cut plan. i've been arguing for several years we need to slash the corporate tax rate across the board to the 15% rate and trump came out with a 15% tax rate down from 35 to 40. when i say across the board one other thing i really liked about it is it's for large c corps, big corporations but smaller s corps and pass throughs. so everybody will get a tax cut and what the work shows pretty much every where now the biggest beneficiaries of lower corporate tax cut is middle income wage earners.
because they get better wages, they get better benefits and get better health care. yes, i supported it. i think it's probably the single best growth measure possible. >> larry, when you look at the debate last night and i was saying i thought the whole thing was embarrassing for everybody, irdon't know if you feel that way. >> you say the hand part. >> the whole thing -- the mud was terrible. >> you were specifically talking -- >> the hand thing. >> not the hands but what he was implying about his manhood is what got you. >> yeah. >> have you been on twitter? >> i've been on twitter. >> you watch sitcoms. you live in the world today. you know this stuff does happen. >> i do. but i'm not sure what's going on in twitter the cesspool that is twitter. larry can you speak to that. >> i don't think it's a great moment. the last three debates have been
a little bit like a tenth grade rank out session and it doesn't do anybody any good. on the other hand, you know, marco rubio and donald trump going at it -- rubio is hanging by a thread, let's face it. almost impossible for him to get the delegate vote to be nominated. i think politico ran a story or somebody ran a story rubio has to 2k3w5e69% of all the remaining delegates and all remaining primaries so he's fighting for his life. i thought he had a very poor night. i think he's so absorbed -- trump is in rubio's head. you can see it. >> larry, a lot of times it helps to get things like filtered down by saying i want a one word answer. i tried to came up -- while i watched mitt romney's 17 minutes. i was trying to identify what a one word would describe what i
was feeling when i was watching that. i finally came up with, i think, i wasn't amused i was bemused. doesn't that mean you're sort of tickled watching the richness of the irony of a situation? what was the one word you thought of when you were listening to mitt romney yesterday? >> if you give me two i would feel better. how about political eunuch. >> to be able to turn that, after watching the stuff from four years ago and even mrs. romney they were very differential towards donald trump because they need him. then four years later -- i mean that's really like yago almost. >> reading through the text of mitt's speech it was very short
on actual substance. if he had big policy differences that might be one thing but he didn't. he was bringing up all this rank out stuff and where trump has been hit in these debates. >> but i watched wolf blitzer say these were substantive and it will cause a recession. these things, he's got stuff in his taxes, all this stuff that you don't know if any of it -- it was all hearsay or conjecture of what will probably happen. >> look, donald trump has an unconventional view and attracting a lot of unconventional people through the republican primaries. republican primary numbers are swelling whereas the democratic primary numbers are crashing down. now, my point here is to say trump wants a large scale tax cut, mentioned the corporate tax which he was generous and kind enough to mention, my support.
but i think a lot of people support him. mitt romney was very much in favor of similar tax cuts four years ago. and actually in some respects i think trump has a harder line on foreign policy than mitt romney did. so i don't particularly understand what we're getting at. >> more successful businessman than myself four years ago. referred to trump as a more successful man. >> right. mitt -- i really don't know what the intention was. he's not going to run. he couldn't possibly run. he's just stirring the pot. in some ways in the debate last night the most interesting part maybe substantively or politically is that they all said they would support the republican nominee. now that's -- they said -- >> they expected him to sign it
but they won't reciprocate. they will lose the 35% or 40% he's got. these guys are like the gang that can't shoot straight. >> my point is, though, they are contradicting mitt romney. romney says one thing in the morning and they contradict him at night. they will support the pledge. mitt romney will not run for president. mitt romney has no political clout right now. he just is stirring up trouble. and on this one i'll give marco rubio some credit last night because when he said he would support the nominee, including donald trump, he said the most important thing is to defeat hillary clinton. now if you're a republican, that is absolutely correct. mitt romney didn't have the grace to say any of that. so, look, this is going a short story at best a 35, 40 hour story. it's going to go nowhere. i don't know mitt what he had in mind.
no good. >> i need an all of the above. >> does it matter how we say things? to the people who have been disappointed with this, who have not wanted to get on board with trump's campaign i think their primary concern is how we talk about things and the manner that a lot of this is being discussed in. does that matter? >> this will be forgotten, becky in two days, at most. it's a two day story. the real issue here -- the real issue here is that donald trump is wrapping up wins and he's wrapping up delegates. now ted cruz is still in the hunt. he's got some ws, not many but he's got some. he's still in the hunt. the guy who i thought did very well, kasich, he stayed away was john kasich. he had a positive, optimistic message. >> larry, to me this is the important piece. we've been talking about tax
policy and you're talking about the merits of what donald trump is staying or not saying and i would suggest to you if you poll the people voting for donald trump that whatever -- i'm not even sure they know what his policies are. i think his policy prescriptions are almost irrelevant to them. it's the rhetoric, it's the language, to becky's question, they are tapping into his frustration and his anger with everything going on but not to the extent that they know he has this plan or that plan or some other plan. >> there may be something to that. i don't think ordinary folks dig down deep into the details although i think they would love to have better take home pay and love to have lower taxes and the united states would be much more competitive because capital would flow to the u.s. from all over the world. a much more hospitable business environment in this country and that's what trump is getting at. and that's what i support pop
your point, more of the optics of this, i continue to believe and i have not endorsed anybody, let me make that clear. i like his tax cuts but i'm not endorsing anybody. trump projects strength. he's the strong man up there. that's true from the very first debate. i think people want a strong leader in this country. whether it's donald trump or not, he really is out in front on that. it's almost an intangible thing. you look at him and you say this guy is a strong man who could very well lead america back to greatness. i think that's an intangible psychological thing trump has had all along and the others don't know quite how to deal with it. >> it's all in the eye of the beholder. larry, thank you. >> thank you. >> we should tell you we have a programming note, john harwood
will be sitting downtown other side of the aisle with hillary clinton. you can see that later today on clo "closing bell." >> you got hillary. >> for other people's eyes. i know where you're going. i understand where you are. >> when we return we are just over an hour away from the february diplomat report. we'll find out what investors are looking for and how markets reactor. and former minnesota governor tim pawlenty will be joining us. it's all coming up here this morning on "squawk box". open floor plan. what do you mean? well there's no privacy anymore. and how many times a day do i apply the ointment? nowhere to have a meeting... and it's just...
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on their devices. order up. it's more than just wifi, it can help grow your business. you don't see that every day. introducing wifi pro, wifi that helps grow your business. comcast business. built for business. . let's turn now to the markets as we countdown this morning's february jobs report. joining us now is rbc capital markets chief strategist and managing director and chief investment officer of bessemer trust. do we want a number that's just right. if it's too hot would the market not like it because it naens fed is back on track. too cold recession fears come back. is it important? >> this may be the least important jobs report that we've seen in a while. the economy --
>> something important people at home. >> listen. we're so far away from recession and i think that's been -- >> host important number of the month. >> yes. you want things move to forward. good jobs number will tell you thing will move forward. the fed wants to raise rates but the world economy needs to calm down. we don't need more jobs. we have low unemployment rate. they need tofrg chill. that's what's been happening. i don't think this jobs number will make a difference. >> we need some demand for workers and then people have to pay up and everyone benefits. you didn't mean that. >> of course we need more jobs. the stock market doesn't need a strong number. but more jobs is always good >> you're pretty sure there's no inflation or i'm sorry no recession on the horizon for sure, you're 80% sure? >> i'm putting in 95%. mid-93. >> do you think it can get too
hot, 280 would the market sell off on that or do we embrace that >> right now the market is not pricing in a lot of the fed this year. by november, december we get up to around 60% chance of a hike. if we get a big number today and a little bit of dollar strength and higher yields that might get people nervous again about the multinationals and what that could mean for china and outfloss from china. you do want a goldilocks number to keep the market sentiment. >> i can paint a picture where it's bad that people worry that something happened the first of the year, auto sales we're worried about. consumer hasn't been as great, supposedly. if it was a bad number people would say wow. >> the crazy thing about payrolls, you do this every single month, so do we, it's a volatile number. you can have big revisions. we could get a bad number today and be completely revise ad month from now. >> if there's a big revision to
last month's numbers what does that mean in terms of they base it off the revision for the gains that come or base it off the old number? >> in term of the market reaction? >> if we're guessing it is up 200,000 -- >> no. >> still 200. >> is there a bad enough number for the market to go down or do we still want -- is it more about the fed staying -- >> again, this is one data point. >> 80,000 would the market go down. >> short term but they are going look at the revisions from last month, look at the earnings numbers as well and i think we've had enough data points recently, jobless claims are doing fine. service sector business confidence survey was soft. so i think people will brush it off as a one off. any selling you get on that i would go the other way. >> so by the end of the year, you know, oil, the comps won't be as bad and the dollar the
comps won't be as bad and profits may look better compared to 2015. will we be 10% higher in the stock market? >> something like that. last year everybody is talking about an earnings recession, zero earnings growth but x energy, 7%. this year it looks like we'll be something like 4% or 5% earnings growth excluding energy and next year if we don't have this oil drag you're looking at single digits. we don't have a big earnings problem. i think this whole oil issue, it's a debacle is really obfuscated or made it hard to see the fact that things are not great but they are not falling apart and i think that's probably the way this plays out between now and tend of the year. >> that's one thing we need to watch in the short term with oil. it stabilized, risen a little bit, everybody is happy. you're seeing flows back in the high yield into emerging
markets. but if we wake up and the newspaper headline tell us all the tankers in america are full could we get another leg lower? so i think we're not necessarily out of the woods on this yet although definitely extreme position, the valuations, the fact that opec is talking is making it a bit more two sided. >> one thing that makes me uncomfortable oil is so volatile. to have oil go from 26 in change to almost 35 means it's a lot less likely to be sticky. this thing could rip forward or pull back. you want to move forward. a little bit more tempered and calm and right now the volatility, you know, on oil -- oil in particular. something this volatile you got to be careful to celebrate your successes because we have no idea whether 40 is the next number or 30 is. if i was looking at volatility which is way lower you're more likely to believe that this is likely, these levels are likely to stick. >> okay. thank you. >> thank you.
. welcome back to "squawk box". among stories that's front and center we're an hour away from the february jobs report. economists there looking for 200,000 new nonfarm jobs and unemployment rate remains steady at 4.9%. check out shares of the movie theater operator carmike cinemas. it's being bought out by amc for $30 a share. that stock up by 15%. amazon dropping its d disencryption feature. >> it wasn't popular. people didn't want it? >> weren't taking advantage of it. for whatever reason. people have a very strange view of -- privacy is a very complicated issue for people these days. >> new survey shows consumers are finally ready to return to
chipotle. digital coupons for free entrees in late february may have drawn customers back in. chipotle is hiring. the chain works to recover from battered sales after that e. coli scare. shares dropped 28% in the last six months. >> a major sand storm sweeping through northwest china on thursday. strong winds creating walls of sand send aing gravel flying hitting speeds of more than 67 miles per hour. the storm was so bad that schools were cancelled. train service stopped. and police banned all vehicles from entering certain areas. coming up, the gloves, we keep saying that, the gloves came off so you could see everybody's hands last night at the gop debate. >> i never heard of this. look at these hands. are they small hands? and he referred to my hands if
♪ ♪ don't worry ♪ about a thing ♪ every little thing will be all right ♪ i'm not convinced. >> i don't know about that. >> this movie, have you seen "i am legend." now i hear this song and i think of that. i have a food feeling bath scary feeling. >> i wish you didn't remind me of that. >> beautiful dog, german shepherd. anyway if you haven't seen it sorry.
mitt romney had some strong words for donald trump yesterday urging the country not to vote for the unpredictable and mercu rirch al president candidate. moments ago on the "today" show matt lauer asked romney why he waited so long to speak out. >> i wanted to be involved in the campaign as a referee and when there were some foul balls call them and keep some people guide on the path to becoming our next president. but the time came when donald trump's outrage had reached such a level that i simply had to speak out. you get to the point where you say your grandkids will be saying to you, papa, what did you do to stop donald trump and i had to get out and speak. >> he's right. we all agree. it would have been better if he was an referee all along instead a player in the sport. anyway joining us now to talk about this and the future of the republican party, that might be too hard, former minnesota
governor, tim pawlenty. i tried to figure out, governor, how i felt yesterday. i'm a big supporter of mitt romney as a man, person and businessman at bain. i thought he had some great policy ideas four years ago. what was your feeling yesterday as you watched that? you were nodding or like questioning what got into this guy? >> well like you, joe, i have a high regard for mitt romney. he's a tremendous leader, tremendous business success and a tremendous person. but the core of his argument was that donald trump has character flaws and the people who are supporting donald trump have factored in his character flaws. i don't think that donald trump is a saint. they know he has a bunch of warts. it's already baked in the cake and won't change much. >> that's a pretty reasonable analysis. that's the key thing, governor. you say all that stuff about trump you can immediately transfer that right to 35 or the
40% that -- and maybe -- who knows what part of the republican party these people are. >> they are not voting on character, they are voting on change. not to say that character is not important but they want somebody very different. they want somebody to come in and break the furniture. >> whether it's 30%, 40%, maybe it's 35%, for whatever it is for the republican establishment to decide that someone doesn't pass muster in their eyes and that this is not a democratic small d, a democratic process it goes state by state, to imply that this is something they need to decide that's what the democrat with a capital d that's how they decide. they get the hunt dread sma-- h smartest people. like obamacare. they are not smart enough to under it and whether they like it or not we'll do it because it's our decision. usually republicans don't act
this way but they are. >> there's one other aspect. if you're a grassroots republican activist and for years if not decades establishment leaders have been telling you we're going to cut your tax, balance the budget, rein in spending, repeal obama car, we store entitlement, restore the military and they don't do any of it eventually you say you're all full of bs. it's not working. we'll try something dramatically different. >> i asked judd gregg whether he was an establishment republican. does anybody call you and say what the hell do we do? you're still involved. i mean there was a closed door meeting to say let's get this to a brokered convention, let's get mitt to start it here? >> there are a bunch of people that talk like this. but there's no one big power in the party that could do it if they wanted to. i support marco rubio. i decided about a week or two weeks ago to support marco rubio.
you get all the upside with him without any down side. he doesn't talk the american dream he's lived it and a person of good character. i think he's got the total positive package in that regard. look we get the politic that culture demands. what you saw in that debate was a reflection of our culture. >> governor, you're supporting rubio but we talk earlier about how he would have to win 65 puerto rico of t65% of the remaining delegates. if he's not the nominee if trump continues would you support him? >> i always support the republican party nominee. i have to say, marco rubio is my choice. i would sure support the nominee in this case but it would be a very new adventure for all of us if donald trump is the nominee. if you want to defeat donald trump there's still time you have to consolidate the field to one candidate. they are not willing to do that.
the country is my first priority. >> if you're looking for anybody but donald trump to support, ted cruz seems like's a more likely candidate because he's had more wins. >> they can make a rationale to stay in the race. that's an individual decision for each of those candidates. but i think if you look at who is most appealing to the country, it is marco rubio, in my opinion. >> if you get down a situation, though, where donald trump doesn't flat out win the nomination before the convention and end up with a brokered convention, if you walk into that with someone, donald trump has won the fast majority of the delegates walking into that and he doesn't win what happens to the party. that looks like a back room deal that takes away from what voters themselves wanted. >> great point. my strong, the strong advise. look, compete. win it, lose it but don't steal
it because if somebody gets in there and tries parliamentary monkey business and steals away this endorsements you'll have a massive mess on your hands and in the party and the election. >> yeah. so many things for the opposition to sort of just be laughing about and just embracing and that's another thing watching these guys where they would try to rig it and take it away from the duly, you know if you go seat by state and he wins 1,200 delegate, if they try to do that, that will sink the election because they won't get -- >> it's back room deal. >> the other thing, joe, if you've benton floor of these conventions and understand the modern day republican party not at the donor level but at the grassroots level these people are in it for their true believes and cause and the fact that some power broker, donor,
super p.a.c. national mouthpiece will come in to the convention and tell these delegates what to do is disconnected from reality of the modern day grassroots movement. part of the disonance in the media they don't understand what's gone on at the grassroots level. >> governor, thank you. >> you're welcome. >> we appreciate your input today and see you soon hopefully. >> okay. >> when we return, a check on the consumer, the ceo of saks fifth avenue gerald storch will join us right after this. tment , we believe in the power of active management. by debating our research to find the best investments. by looking at global and local insights to benefit from different points of view.
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. welcome back, everybody. jpmorgan ceo jamie dimon joined us yesterday and had some thoughts to share with us on how he sees the u.s. economy. >> what we see is the american economy, the actual economy, the 145 million people working, more people of working, wages going up, they are spending money,
spending gassing savings, their balance sheets are in better shape since it's been recorded, the consumer. they are buying cars at all time records, home sales are going up, household formation are going up. >> let's talk more about the state of the consumer. hudson bay, gerry storch joins us now. he's in new york where they just opened up their new store. hudson bay completed their $250 million acquisition. you're moving quickly. we just talked with you about this acquisition. >> we just close don't acquisition on february 1st and just yesterday we opened the first physical store inside of a saks. it's the premium off price retailer. the internet is growing rapidly. so by putting the two together we provide that experience. we're seeing this more and more
convergence between the internet and bricks and mortar retailer. so the world is not so simple. and the internet clearly growing very, very rapidly. we grew on the internet by 23% last year. which is more than double the rate of the growth on the internet as whole. so bricks and mortar and internet belong together and is the motel of the future. >> the question, not the internet -- but the question about the off fifth brand and lower price brand has been will it cannibalize saks fifth avenue. >> we think it appeals to a younger generation. get them into the brand. then they can shop both places. >> they graduate eventually to saks fifth avenue customer? >> yes. and sometimes the saks fifth avenue customer wants to buy
something less expensive. so we think they work very well together. they built a brand. it's a lot of fun. that's what retailing is bp when you go visit the gilt store it's on fire. the biggest buzz you ever heard. >> how are you dealing with brands that would like to you sell at full price and then see you selling the stuff at off price? what is that conversation like? one of the struggles gilt had earlier on when they were independent they were getting this merchandise early on and then some of the brands said this is not so good for us. >> the off price business the leftover product is the product that sells on hearance anyway, sell in a third market somewhere out in the middle of nowhere. this gives the consumer a good chance to get into a brand at a less expensive price and appreciate it and come to buy it at full price. we think that notion of
recruitment leading to a long term customer is very important. >> do the vendors -- >> most vendors understand that. they understand you have to do business in multiple places, including the internet. it's a form of social media marketing at the same time that you're selling something. when i walk into an event sometimes we just bought the largest department store in germany, $3 billion. when i tell people they go oh, that's nice. we just bought gilt, oh, my gosh you have gilt. that brand is on fire. people love it. it builds brand. >> let's talk about the state of the consumer. let's start in the united states. how is the u.s. consumer feeling? where are they more likely to shop? >> better than has been reported. i believe there was an overreaction to the initial reports from the holiday and now you're seeing numbers are better than people thought. we reported recently that our sales for the quarter up 1.8%,
comp sales. our department store group was up 4% for the quarter. so it's not like the consumer has vanished. it is clear that weather was very hot and that affected certain categories. very clear tourists are not in manhattan. business is going to the internet. not clear that the consumer stopped spending. you see some pretty good numbers out of people. depends on the segment. tjmaxx had good numbers. >> is it doing better? >> we had 6% for the year. we're very excited and growing quite rapidly. >> just in terms of that high end shopper are they still shopping or graduating down? >> by and large still shopping. i believe our saks fifth avenue -- >> market volatility does that impact sales >> it does. our full line stores are off 1%. that's not exact lei meltdown.
still pretty good. i believe that these trends have been grossly exaggerated. people have built on what happened with the weather, you know, what happened with currency and some other things and shifting going on between winners and losers retailers have drawn the conclusion. >> u.s. consumer you think is doing okay. what about the rest of the world? >> pretty good. one of the thing we love is we're diversified. when one rises the other falls. generally speaking it feels pretty good. >> gerry, thank you for joining us. coming up when is it time for the candidate move to from the primaries to the general. it's a joke. that's what's coming up after last night. general election. what do you think -- what's the worse -- no one has ever died on the set, andrew.
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his home was raided. michelle caruso-cabrera will have more on this story in a few minutes. people have hurt themselves with coffee coming out of their nose. >> that's a good day. >> they say they love it. but they are dealing -- >> you said nobody ever died on my seat and i almost had a heart attack. >> it's even a word that's not cable banned. it's fine. let's look at the stocks to watch. discount retailer big lots earned $2 per share. fell a bit shy with the company pointsing to bad weather and later start to tax refund season. big lots announced 21% dividend hike and a new $250 million share repurchase program. >> people get their tax refunds and go to big lots. >> don't you >> that's news to me. >> hard to get a refund these
days. >> no refunds for me. >> some don't withhold. >> i write checks. >> staples missed estimates by two cents with quarterly profit of 25 cents per share. same store sales fell 4% although the office supply retailer did say north american margins have improved. and udr is joining the s&p 500 index effective after today's close. it's a real estate investment trust that specializes in luxury apartments and replacing keurig, green mountain which was bought by private investors. when we come back, special coverage of the number of the month begins. the february jobs report is just 30 minutes away. our panel will help us countdown
plus give us the instant analysis after that number hits. the futures this morning have been, yeah, a little bit higher. again we're talking three days in a row of gains already and dow futures are up about 37 points. s&p is up by 3.5. nasdaq up by 14. we're on par for our third week of gains in a row.
♪ it's the final countdown the wait is almost over, the jobs report now just 30 minutes away. we have the numbers and the instant market reaction and analysis from charles glacier. >> showdown in motown. gloves coming off. >> people of florida can't stand him. he couldn't get elected dog catcher. i've given my answer lying ted. >> breathe, breathe, breathe. can you do it. breathe. >> breakdown of the battle royale in detroit. >> nothing but net.
the steve cuph curry taking a st silicon valley. the final hour of "squawk box" starts right now. ♪ >> announcer: live from the most powerful city in the world, new york. this is "squawk box". welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc, first in business worldwide i'm sore with joe kernen and becky quick. synchronized your watches. we're getting ready for the jobs report. poll forecasters say the economy likely added 200,000 jobs last month. unemployment rate expected to hold steady at 4.9%. take a look at u.s. equity futures. everything could and may very well change. dow jones looks like it would open 34 points higher. nasdaq open up 13 points aer and s&p 500 open 3 points higher. a developing story out of brazil at this hour.
former brazilian president has been detained by authorities in that country. he's currently under investigation for alleged scheme involving petrobas. michelle caruso-cabrera will be joining us with this story, she has more and will be with us in a few minutes. >> time now, as it always is on this day, it's the first friday of the month. is that it? time for the jobs panel. can you count on that unless it's like the second -- if it's march 2nd, they need a week to cook -- to put the numbers together. there's some weird things where it might not be. usually the first friday. kate moore is here. jeff rosenberg from blackrock. douglas holtz aiken is a former
economic adviser to john mccain and inaugural member of the republican establishment so we can get his views on which way this election is going to go and what the pharisees are thinking. right? this must be stopped. you guys got to step in. these people under sane that are out there voting. and professor from university of chicago booth school of business under president obama. i know all your answers already because i was watching you last night austin. you did a good job. and diane swank founder and ceo. we're done with that segment. we have no more time. no. who wants to start. where will we be, jeff >> i'll go this way. is there a number that can either be too hot or too cold. do we need a goldy locks number?
>> got a number. what hurt the markets last month you had better wage inflation and weaker headline payrolls. said the economy is slowing and said the fed has to tighten. we look for that to flip. better economic number in terms of the payroll but weakening or slowing that pace of job growth in terms of wage inflation. that's the combination that the market would like to see because it will keep the fed and pace of normalization down but say overall the economy is doing okay. >> there's five of you. i'm trying to think if this is a debate who would be in the center. >> this is a size that statistically significant. interesting different perspectives. i think we do need a goldilocks number. >> what would that be. >> less than 200. some place between 150 and 200. >> so they don't go up. >> where people are not thinking of the fed having to consider to continue the normalization process in march
and june may or may not be on table. i want gives people time to digest and focus on the equity side on the first quarter earnings which will be mixed. >> can you get away with that? normally we should want as americans to add as many jobs as we possibly -- that we possibly can. but we're already at 4.9. maybe you can say 150 to 200 is good enough if the market likes it and we're already at full employment. you don't want necessarily some of the negatives that come with it. >> from an equity market perspective and when he a print that was far north of 200 the market would have to start pricing in fed action than it is. >> i would just add in from the equity market perspective there's that but the equity markets aren't pricing the political risk. something that's much better going forward which is not what i'm forecasting much better. we're in a race, global economic
race to beat back the tides of political extremism with more healing and fundamental healing in labor markets and that, i think, is part of the problem. >> just on that point, we're focused on the payroll figure but a lot of focus on the wage figure. wage figure will tell people how volatile the markets are. as long as the headline figure comes in around 200. at set point 2 wage number getting back to the pace, the slow pace is better. last month we had .5. this was special factors. that's what scared the market if it's a tightening labor market fed has to go much faster. >> the point too you get half a percent year-over-year. >> when diane says political risk with some of these extreme views with these candidates i think she's talking about bernie sanders, but -- >> bernie said we can get to
3 -- >> what's that >> bernie said we could get to 3.8 unemployment on a permanent basis. if there were a debate stage i think we all know that joe would be trump talking about what's in his pants and whatever it is. but i would be one of the guys that attack. >> your going to go there >> i would be attacking from you the side. i think on jobs -- >> all right little austin. >> look, i got big hands, joe. i think on jobs there's two things to be. the first is, in brazil, in china, about to be again in europe, we're really on intelligent of me the edge of meltdown. it's unrealistic to think we'll just keep plugging along on a very positive basis, and we've
had the weird reverse blessing that productivity has been negative and when you have negative productivity people have to hire in order to grow, but i think that's going to stop and when those two things come together, i think we're likely to see the improvements in the job market slow down quite significantly. >> thanks, austin. i want to get to doug quickly. doug talk about jobs. i was kidding about the republican establishment, but you think trump, i think from reading your notes you think this man has to be stopped as well, i guess. my only question is, is that the right way to approach it if 35% to 40% of the people that are voting in these states -- is that what republicans should be trying to do? done that -- they know better than the people? >> no. i think the key is to be respectful of voters who are supporting trump and their concerns. there's a lot of distress out there. there's a lesson of the
republican establishment failure to deliver on their promises. but i don't think trump is the right candidate to take those concerns. he's waver thin on policy and everybody is to be bit concern about tone he carries into any discussion about his presidency. so, you know, i don't think it's really about donald trump. it's about the concerns those voters have and thanksgiving right person respond to them. you know, on the jobs briefly i echo what austin is saying on the productivity number that's the biggest concern. we're getting away with job growth but we have no sustained growth. today we'll get a pretty good jobs number. i think it will be bigger than most people think. i'm focused on the average hourly earnings. that's the key. >> where do i want to go from here? i thought austin was with me. >> i any severe make fun of
anyone's hair. >> did we have a follicly challenged candidate? >> bernie. >> bernie just looks like einstein or something. i'm not sure what we call it. everybody stick around because we're going to come back after break and kick more of this stuff around. i got to be everyone. jeff rosenberg, douglas, detain, kate and austin. see austin you pick on me and then i forget about you. anyway, he must be tired because that was -- do you do anything but appear on television shows now, austin? >> hey, they can't get enough of me, joe. >> they really can't. that's right. they need a token on. he gave you a little grief. do you see anything, any problems with hillary whatsoever? has anything occurred to you? all right.
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the employment report and for some job series, what is old is new again. one ancient industry means hiring by craft brewers is on the rise. mary thompson joins us from stamford, connecticut. our continuing look at where the jobs are. mary, cheers. >> reporter: cheers to you, becky as well. this is an appropriate story for friday, for any friday, i would say. last year the beer industry revisit ad key milestone, the brewers association saying that it counted 4,000 breweries here in the u.s., a number not seen since the late 1800s. craft brewers like half full are the driving force per thiend growth, growth creating jobs across the country. around for thousands of years, beers experiencing a kind of a revival here in the u.s. thanks to the popularity of specialized brews.
>> nationally craft breweries are opening at the rate of two a day. >> reporter: these small breweries make less than 6 million barrels a year while accounting for 12% to 13% of the industry bulk in 2015. bart watson sees it growing. >> there's a goal of 20% market share by 2020. >> reporter: the growth adding tens of thousands of jobs to the industry's direct workforce of 115,000. >> a small brewery will need a jack of all trades. a chemical engineer and fork lift driver. craft brewer will have specific position, lab technicians. head brewer. >> reporter: now depending on the job you can earn anywhere from the mid-20s to six figures in the craft brewing industry. those fix figure jobs typically going to experienced workers
like a master brewer which along with sales people right now are in high demand in the craft brewing industry. for more on this story read about it on cnbc.com. back to you. >> mary, you know i needed you the other day. you know what i'm talking about. >> reporter: i'm not sure. >> you had all -- because i had two people here never heard of slim whitman and you had all his records. >> reporter: slim whitman. yes, yes. and he was favorite in our household when i was growing up. that's right. i was excited to hear you mention him. >> yeah. what you guys missed they had these commercials that came on. this man sold more records than beatles. they ran them all the time. no one had ever heard of this guy ever. then they ran it again and again and again it became a "saturday night live" who the hell is slim
whitman. >> reporter: what was the song he sang? "rosemarie." >> he's a yodeler and big in europe. he sold more records -- this is true. he was huge. very big. anyway thanks, mary. coming up details on -- see i heard from her. >> you told me the other day and i still don't know who this guy is. >> you never heard of henny youngman. >> that's right. >> and never heard of the four tops. coming up details on brazil's former president being detained, michelle caruso-cabrera joins us next. plus the main event, the countdown to the jobs report. we'll get you ready for the most important number of the month. stay tune, "squawk box" is coming right back.
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news breaking in the last hour that the former president of brazil is being detained by police after a raid on his home and office and michelle caruso-cabrera now joins us. she has more on this story. >> luiz inacio lula da silva one of the most towering figures in latin america politics, the former president of brazil have been detained by authorities in connection to this huge scandal engulfing petrobas the state-owned oil company which has led to dozens of politicians being arrested. billions of dollars worth of
kickbacks and bribes going on and there's going to be a press conference later on in just the next couple of hours in brazil held by the prosecutor's office on the statement on their website said they are looking into whether or not he got sweetheart deals from construction companies that also did deals with petrobas to renovate home and whether or not he actually got any money. this is a huge event in brazil and huge event for latin america and also for the markets. the brazil real is rallying sharply. the brazilian market is higher. bonds linked to inflation are also rallying with yields falling things we don't talk about here but in a country where sflags problem and the central bank is not independent that's a telling signal that people think that maybe if we get closer to tend of this scandal which is really crushing the country you might see some resolution. >> rally is because we're reaching a resolution or they
are cracking down on corruption. >> i think both. there's been a crackdown on corruption that's gotten a lot of note in the last two years in brazil. the question has always been will it get to lula and the current president. day-by-day they get closer and closer. brazil is almost in a depression, deep, deep recession because of the decline in oil and what's happened to petrobas. the central bank hasn't been able to do what it needed to do in terms of combatting inflation, capital flight. they are in a tough problem combat capital flight you want to raise interest rates to help the economy you want to lower interest rates. what do you think the president wants them to do. the president wants them to lower interest rates. that's the dilemma they face. a huge deal. we'll monitor the press conference later on this morning and then the current president faces impeachment which is an extraordinary event for a
country that had ridden the commodity boom in a tremendous way and is riding it all the way down. >> what would happen if she is impeached. >> so then you see who the next president is and would they be more market friendly and less socialist than she is. >> michele, thank you very much. when we come back the wait is over the government's read on jobs. we'll have it right after the break. in the meantime take a look at u.s. equity futures. they have been higher all morning long. dow is up 27 points. s&p 500 up by 2.5 and nasdaq up by ten. we're on track for our third week in a row for being up in the stock market. stick around, "squawk box" will be right back.
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panel. let's start with kate. what's your number? >> i gave a very low number 150, unscientific once again. i want goes my point about being goldilocks. the market needs something that indicates job growth but nothing that scares them into thinking the fed has to move sooner than later. we need no fear on the dollar side as well. >> we'll go to austin. what is your number? i think you just gave it away. this game is not working very well. >> okay. i'm going to say 174 but i think the unemployment rate ticks down a tenth. >> we'll go to doug. >> i'm with austin. down to 4.8. but i got the bullish jobs number. we're at 220. no productivity in sight. >> diane this game -- you can't see it on your screen but this game doesn't work because we're taking these wide shots of the screen that show off your number before you even say it.
i just saw it. diane, go for it. >> 180. looking at 180. not way off of where we're already talking about. the unemployment rate stays at 4.9. we'll see, although wage inflation will look lower on a year-over-year basis we'll be at the 2.5% range. >> jeff let me tell everybody your number. >> it's random. my number this month is 250 just because of the high frequency data has been pointing towards better data. the message over the longer run which is important which is job growth slowing. slowing not because the economy is slowing but because supply of sling. that's why wage inflation picture is much more important for markets. >> rick we showed your number but radio folks don't know it. tell us what it s-rick. >> 210,000. i don't want to go too high and have too many jobs or too much prosperity.
might bring in the fed. >> i think it would be unwise for the fed would move even if we get a good number. they look trigger happy. >> of course you would. >> we haven't even started yet. >> hold on. >> zero is great. let's keep it at zero. fed has full confidence in the market. this is before they take away the money so the negative rates bite. reed that op-ed in the journal. switzerland and germany have horrible crime rates. that's why they want to take the saves away. >> steve liesman. >> my pseudo scientific number, in a model that has a plus or my nufs 53,000 which is not too bad but being dragged down by the ism employment components which have not done a good job of predicting job growth. i stick with the model that was good last month and i'm sticking with it because i'm trying to be consistent.
i don't know -- i think it's a very consequential number. the sense of recovery is hanging by a thread. in less than a minute we'll get a sense about how people feel about how strong this recovery is. >> i feel better having you at 130 and my 150 whatever doesn't sound bad. the other thing that's important we've seen a slight tick down in business confidence in the last two months in part because of concerns over global growth. so i worry that was going to have a little bit of a challenge for the labor market. >> we're going to find out in just a moment. we're a few seconds away from the release of the jobs report. let's look at the futures. the dow futures right now are up by about 27 points above fair value. s&p futures up by three and nasdaq up by 11. let's look at the ten year, treasury market right now. ten year is yielding at 1.832%. we'll keep an eye on all of
that. hampton pearson joins us right now from the labor department. >> 242,000. in february nonfarm payrolls increased by 242,000 jobs. the unemployment rate is 4.9%. average hourly earnings declined .1%. the last time that happened was december of 2014. with the revisions, there were an additional 30,000 jobs above what was previously reported for december and january. the private-sector in the month of february create ed 230 jobs. health care and social assistance plus 57,000. retail trade adding 55,000 jobs in february. food and drinking places another 40,000. and construction was up by 19,000. on the down side, mining continues to be a loss leader of jobs, losing another 19,000. manufacturing was also down by
16,000 in the move february. with the revisions the averages for the last three months of job gains to 30,000 per month. labor force participation rate dropped to 9.7% that's the lowest since may of 2008 or excuse me that's the new six i was referring, to real unemployment rate. labor force participation rate was 62.9 edging up. long term unemployed 2.2 million, 27% of the unemployed. back to you guys. >> hampton, thank you very much. very quickly for those that have been watching the market reaction, futures like this stronger number. you can see right now that, i think the dow futures are up by about 58 or 60 points above fair value. they were up 27. so we've doubled our gains. let's get back to our panel for reaction.
i don't think we play -- you went over but by far closest 250,000. came within 8,000. >> high frequency and a bit of a random error game. let's look at the market reaction. the market reaction is the opposite of what the market hated in the january report. slowing in terms of wage growth. keeps the pace of normalization off. headline figure tells people the economy is still growing. >> average hourly wages were down .1% versus up .2% that was expected. even though these are stronger numbers. >> the fed is concerned about slack. the headline figure the markets react to but fed is concerned about how tight the labor markets are. today's report says they don't have to racetrack chet things up. the headline figure says the economy and the fears over the
recession and mid-cycle slowing the data has gotten better. another piece in that. the markets like that. >> i want to read three numbers that are relevant to the discussion. 466, 502, 555. those are the new entrants in to the workforce the last three months. this is really backing up a concept from janet yellen who says there is slack out there that we haven't been counting. this is way, well above the population growth in the economy. we are taking at least some number of people off of the couches or who have been discouraged and left the workforce and slight uptick in the participation rate tells us there's slack out there. nobody knows where tend point is but the idea we did 550,000, talking about the household survey and employed 530 house to of them we're finding work for those people or these people are
attracted in by higher wages or whatever. and my model is terrible. >> it also shows -- >> rick, my model has the jobs going up basically 20,000 more each month right no november. until we're at 360. isn't that approximately what most models should be showing leading into november for this labor department? >> you know, i'm not sure any more. all i know is one of our guests said, you know, his model wasn't quite working, but he's going to stick with it. >> that was an employee. >> whoever it was they got janet yellen keep the model at all cost. listen to me, since 1979 -- >> once you get air time. >> i don't want to pull a trump but it's my turn.
>> i'm large steve. large steve. >> okay. >> larger than you steve. go ahead, rick. >> becky has bean moderator. she knows who to call on. you got to remember it was -- >> you had to bring that up, huh, austin. let's see. >> i'm still waiting for the hyper inflation to come that rick told us about five years ago. >> oh, really. is that when you were telling us how much people made that you shouldn't have known. i remember those days. yeah. i'll tell you what -- >> you can insult each other one at a time. >> i'm done. austin was at the debate so i'm done. forget it. you guys can talk. i'm not going talk over you any more. i'm tired. >> in. austin, you want to finish your point? >> my only point is gdp growth is very modest and we continue to have these strong jobs
numbers and so we eventually we're going to have to reconcile how can we not be growing that fast but the jobs are growing as strongly as they are and thus far the answer is because productivity is terrible so i think to get a strong number like this with negative wage growth is telling you, as doug said productivity has to continue to be on the floor. >> diane i hear you trying to jump in. >> productivity issue is one of the key issues going forward. we're stuck in a subpar growth environment. we're re-engaging workers and part of the reason why wages ticked down. you have more competition and that's great. also on entry level workers we know on college grads, i talked to a lot of ceos in the last two months they are paying up. those workers were hit hard during the crisis. >> under the "price is right" rules you were the winner at 220,000. >> i think that's right. it emphasizes what steve liesman
said which is quietly the american worker is much more confident than the chatter on wall street. people's confidence in current conditions has gone up in february. it was a good month for that. people are entering the labor force and, you know, we're not seeing what i would like to see in top line wage growth but there's a lot more confidence out there than i think the chatter on wall street would suggest. >> i want to turn your attention and rick i hope you do engage here and not insulted. but what's happening in the two year, nice spike there. i think it's too late now to re-engage the fed for this march but certainly rick as the data has come in a little bit stronger than expected and by that i mean essentially nonrecessionary. it hasn't come in as gang busters. but you have a correction from the reversion trade to muddle through trade.
>> well, i think the recession trade should enlighten us. even though the airplane of the u.s. economy glide path isn't scraping the runway if i was standing underneath it i could touch the bottom of the plane as it passes over. the point is as our glide sociopath, low whether it's a recession or not is really somewhat a moot point. we can get the jobs number up to a million if we pay people to shovel sand in holes and pay people to shovel sand back. in the old days we paid attention to jobs. because it had correlation to the economy. but that's not true any more. >> kate, rick makes a great point the lower you fly the closer the ground is so you have that volatility around it. but is the market rethinking what was in early february, january a possible recession trade right now and does this number help them move away from
that? >> the investment community is. i need to echo this. there's a huge disconnect between investor and what's happened to the consumer. very important part here is we're not through the end of the earnings downgrade for the first quarter and for all of 2016. that's really painful but if we don't get interest rates higher it's tough on the financials. we still know the loss from the energy sector and some is getting reflected in equity market sentiment and then we're gift certificating significant job creation a little bit of -- >> but it didn't hurt the market but maybe because of the wage -- >> things have gotten so depressed. so many take off their long positions and raise cash levels and step way from taking risk that -- i think we're at the top end of the range of where we should be until we fully digest the downward pressure on
earnings. >> kate and steve are stick around. i want to thank the rest of our panel here. coming up former philly president will join us with his reaction to the jobs report. we'll do that if today's numbers could impact central bank's next move. stay tuned you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide.
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welcome back to box. the economy adding 242,000 jobs last month. now that's a lot more than expected. steve liesman is here with a guest to break it all down. >> we're all here with a guest. >> you'll do the introduction. >> thank you very much. that's kind of you. let's bring in former philadelphia fed president, charlie plosser. let's talk about this jobs number and the federal reserve. in general the market has pretty much priced out the possibility of a march increase. it's probably redundant to ask you. if you were on the fomc this month how would you be voting? >> oh, it would be a lose call for me. one of the things that the market is not thinking enough about is if the fed chooses to passing march which most people think they will and that's probably the right guess. if the fed chooses to pass and they are really data dependent and we get through this soft
patch and the economy goes back to where fed has thought it would be for the year i think the markets need to anticipate being data dependent means the fed has to catch up. there may be rate hikes but one or two of them may be 50 basis points instead of 25. >> would you be nervous looking at numbers like this. and thinking you know what i'm getting more behind the curve but not only that the market until just the last couple of days, guys, pretty much priced out any possibility of a rate hike this year. and you would be sitting there as a policymaker and saying i'm losing my flexibility because the market is all the way over on one side of the ship. >> that's right. i think it's important that the fed keep open their options, express their data dependence and the market realize that means even if they don't act they could double down in june or secht if the economy continues to get through this soft patch well. >> if they were to double down in september, richard fisher was here and said he doesn't think
politically the fed could raise rates after august just because of the election taking place. do you buy into that theory? >> after sitting through ten years of fomc meetings, i don't really think they care. if they thought it was important they would do it. >> i did some research on that, becky and there's no correlation at all. the fed is just as likely to raise rates in a presidential year. i didn't do it by month. but the fed has never shied away from rate hikes or rate cuts in a presidential year from what i can tell. i went back 40 years to the point you could which was into the volcker area. >> joe what is this throw your colleague under the bus week? at least give me a heads up. >> what about month or year? >> i had a lousy month. i had a good month last month. i got go back and relook at my assumptions. doing my best, joe.
it's a different day. >> weren't you predicting the final number as opposed to -- >> the one that will be revised. charlie thank you for bailing me out. kate i want to bring you into the conversation which is this notion where the market is priced versus where the federal reserve is likely to do. take on charlie's idea, let's say the fed has to do some catch up or say the fed does more rate hikes than the market is priced for. is that a big negative or does the market like strong jobs and is okay with modest rate hikes? >> i feel the market is schizophrenic right now. you know, i think we keep on seeing really changing tuds and evolving tudse ining attitudes policy. charlie you made this point so
perfectly. if we're data dependent in the labor market and inflation data is pointing in one direction and equity market is not believing that the fed can move then what are we missing? is at any time financial conditions, dollar strength? are we expecting given this global economy the fed is tied to what other central banks do? >> i think the fed historically -- the financial markets look normally. the fed is looking more broadly, things beyond what's happening in the financial market or behind, beyond what the financial markets are thinking about and i think this has been true off and on for a long time. you're right. the markets tend to be schizophrenic. you don't like what they think today wait until tomorrow. you got to look through that volatility and look for the longer term. the fed has been predicting an uptick in inflation. i've been saying we'll get it. it is happening.
so patience is a virtue sometimes. not overreacting to short term events is important for policymakers. >> it's important for investors at this point too not to get swung so much in your own sentiment by the volatility of the markets to stay focused on the fundamentals. what's the longer term trend in inflation, in earnings, i think in margin maintenance that will allow you to stay invested in the equity market. >> what do you make of the numbers we saw in the last three months. i don't know what the average is in general we brought half a million people back into the workforce that labor force participation is ticking up. in a concept that says inflation and unemployment are related which i know you have your problems with and i don't want to get too deep in the weed on this phillips curve debate, i'm just going to be thrown off air, but anyway the idea that one employment and inflation have a relationship. there seems tube lot of slack
out there. a lot of people that dropped out of the workforce can come back in. >> certainly true last month and the question is how far is that? how long will that last? will we continue to grow or not? we don't know. the biggest problem with those models about relying on slack for your forecast for inflation we don't know how to measure slack very well. we don't know what the right labor force participation rate. we don't know -- >> nobody knows -- >> we don't know what productivity is. >> nobody knows where the fed will be at the end of the year. some people have a better guess than others. yours is better. give us an idea if you had to write down your own dots where this thing is going. what's your trajectory. where do we end in december and where they ought to be in 2017? >> i don't know. i would be data dependent. that's the answer too is the markets need to think about what they think the economy will do.o do. if the economy does mostly what
the fed thinks it will do, i think being near 1% is not a terrible thing. >> did you hear that? 1%. >> or better. >> did you notice futures are -- >> what do you think this means for the race? political race? frnlg>> to me, nobody has -- no has addressed the essential trump criticism which is that trade and illegal immigrants have cost americans their jobs. nobody is standing up for free trade. nobody is standing up for the current status quo and the political compromise we have. until that happens, until people who have been disaffected and -- by the current economic scenario that's out there now have another answer other than the villain is china the villain is mexico, that he will be popular among the disaffected.
>> we don't know what party is the party of free trade. >> there's a consensus among the elite, and they forgot to talk to people about this. to say here are the benefits of free trade. hoor are t here are the costs. somebody step forward and say there is no benefit here. >> charles, any good economist jokes? these are horrible. >> don't forecast well, forecast often. >> i've said that before. give them a number or give them a date, don't give them both. >> charles' comedic timing. >> he did it better? >> he did. >> he has the same hair, he could have the job. he has the background. come on, charlie. if charlie was senior, i would be junior. coming up, steph curry's warriors recording their 44th straight home game win last night. tying a record with michael jordan's 1996 chicago bulls. off the court, curry is just as busy launching his own tech
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welcome back to "squawk box." steph curry has launched a technical startup called slice, helping athletes optimize social media and engage more efficiently with fans. coming up, kate moore's market call of the morning. and a look at the futures. originally you saw the futures spike or pop on that news that was better than expected with the jobs report. numbers of 242,000. they gave back some of those gains. we're back to where we were before the numbers. dow up by 20, stick around, "squawk box" will be right back.
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and morning chitchat... less interesting. transportation can work better. with xerox. our guest hosts this hour, kate moore chief investment strategist at jpmorgan. you said we're up about ten. the market is grappling. too hot. gold goldilocks might have been better. >> i think the market sentiment bid is easier to call. we had the three major uncertainties, what will happen to policy what will happen to earnings, and what will happen
to global growth? i don't think today's number actually resolves any of those. if anything, we say march and june may or may not be in play. the earnings side, as i was mentioning before on financials and energy will be challenged in the first quarter into the second quarter. the growth is a big question mark. i'm not just watching the fed, i'm watching the ecb and the boj. the language, the literal language and the body language of the policymakers there to signal where we're going next. >> i thought your job number was more of a wishful number than one -- >> an aspirational number. >> you thought it would be better for -- >> if i'm honest, that's right. >> if you're honest, that's right. >> all right. we've got time for the market to do all kinds of stuff. who knows how it reacts to this. i think the political backdrop, at some point the political d p backdrop in this country, and what's happening, sooner or late
their might seep into the equity markets. thank you for being here. >> thank you. >> i'll see you on monday. we have a big show on monday. join us monday. "squawk on the street" is next. ♪ good friday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with sara eisen, simon hobbs and david faber. 242,000 is the jobs number for february. that's above expectations. revisions were up and wages stubbornly down.