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tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  March 7, 2016 12:00pm-1:01pm EST

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awe of the serial short coming and material shocks, s&p is pulled within 2% loss for the year. >> in mid 20s a few weeks ago. >> unbelievable. a chore for the afternoon. let's get back to headquarters and the half. ♪ all right, carl. thanks. welcome to "the halftime report". the commodity crush and whether the worst is really over. with us for the hour today, joe terranova, jim laboren that will, pete najarian, and. from crude to copper and almost all points in between, commodity stocks are been rallying, leading some to think the bottom is in. the names which have shot higher in recent weeks will keep going. but is that really the case? the debate begins now. joe terranova, is this for real? almost every space, wti since january 20th up near 40%.
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brent now at the highest levels of the year. gold, copper, et cetera, and the stocks within that complex have all just ripped. >> and since february 11th, most shorted stocks in the s&p 500 up 20%. this is a massive short covering rally. there's two questions you want to answer for yourself. is the bottom in? the answer to that right now, only is in will there be an exogenous event that takes you back to the lows. not an economic event. recession pulling off the table. secondarily the question, where do we go from here? higher. we go higher from here. $37.50 in oil. higher from here. higher in all the names that are tied to the goldilocks formation. >> you're shaking your head no. >> i'm on the other side of this. i agree that it's a short squeeze going on. but i've got to say that we haven't solved any of the fundamental issues in the commodity space, which is simply oversupply. >> who cares? >> eventually, everybody cares, joe. >> nope, wrong. it's about performance, it's
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about short covering, the future space. >> short covering doesn't last forever. it doesn't. >> short covering right now is actually accelerating in each of these commodity names. short covering is accelerating in a lot of the commodity and resource types. >> eventually, it runs its course. what you're left with is too many minds and too many holes in the ground. >> problem is how high is high. >> also, i think what's happening today is a little bit of a reaction to what went on in china with the congress there. saying they're going to have 6.5 to 7% growth. and you know what, i'll believe that when i see it. >> i'm going to read something jim cramer said earlier. we may have reached a bottom in a number of commodities, bottom in oil, iron ore, copper. that doesn't mean the stocks keep shooting higher. mary ann bartells, what's your take on what cramer has to say and how the space itself is reacting? >> the thing is, you don't even know if you have a bottom. you can say it is a bottom. we won't know until we wind up testing this. yes, do i agree this is a massive short covering? absolutely. in crude oil have they covered
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the large speculators, no, they haven't. i've watching the level 38 on wti. if you break above that, more shorts come in, and cover. and you can average out up into the mid who 40s. i don't think this is in the clear. the long term major down trend for commodities hasn't been broken yet. i think we're celebrating a little bit too soon about the lows being in. >> can i point out one of the obvious things here? you've got iran producing oil, first oil tanker reached spain yesterday from iran. and as soon as you get to $40, if you get to $40, the shale oil producers are going to be all over that. >> i'm going to tell you this. some thought you could get to $50. in fact, a report out today from a consultant group, very closely watched group within the energy industry whose results are not made public. they have been made public today. they spoke to reuters, and they say $50 is the target for oil, that the bottom is, in fact, in. that opec is going to get supply cuts. and that the route is over. >> you know, i think when you're
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looking at all of this, you've got to look at each one individually, right? i mean, i'll give an example of that. take a look at the way copper has traded over the last couple weeks. we look at copper going from 2 to $2.27 in a rapid fashion. and then you look at oil and the steel names and at what's going on with coal. all of these things you put together. last friday, we were talking about the xme paper. massive coal-buying in the xme. that paper very short-term. maybe to your point, jimmy, it is short covering. there is a little bit of a panic out there with short covering. is it sustainable? everything we're seeing. the one thing addressable now in terms of longer term are the names, and once again, take a look at the performance since march 1st of conoco phillips versus exxon and chevron. it's up 20-some-odd percent. exxon and chevron up 1 or 2%. they addressed the major issues everybody was concerned b. did exactly what everybody said they shouldn't do. don't touch this dividend. now look at the way the stock is performing. same thing with kmi. 70% cut.
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people are doing what they need to do, scott, because they know that there is an opportunity coming forward at some point in time, where they're going to be able to buy some of these in a very, very big discount. >> even if it is short covering, joe makes the point, who cares? the trend is -- >> that's why you trade. look at my disclosures. everything i've got now, xme, cliffs, names are absolute trash names. but in the short term, they are going to move the very fastest as you go. i mean, it's all about putting your money where your mouth is right now. when you see what's moving, it's the trash names. joe talked about the trash names. those are the names that are getting these unbelievable moves, and you've got to be there for the very short-term. but do not overstate your welcome. >> treasure for the market then. if you remember, when the freeports of the world down 70%, and leading -- preceding the stock market's big rollover, we were saying on this program, isn't this the worrying sign. look at all these stocks trading in bear market territory. chesapeake, up 65.
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murphy up 57%. kinder morgan, as you say, pete, up 55. range, diamond, an darko, transocean, marathon, apache. those are just the names up 40% or better. and i've got a whole lot more that have done darn well. >> and one of the reasons why you have to focus and adapt the strategy pete is talking about is, has anything changed about facebook's fundamentals? phenomenal quarters, consistently over and over again for the better part of the last 18 months. but yet the stock is sideways year-to-date. market not focusing on the fundamentals. the market right now is focusing on the high beta, highly volatile type of names now. they're anticipating that on thursday, the ecb is going to give the markets even more. another ten basis points, negative interest rates. more bond-buying. the bank of japan, the pboc and back here domestically in the u.s., you have to acknowledge, we have the goldilocks formation. i don't think you're going to see the march hike. that's going to lend itself probably to a lower dollar. that's good for commodities and
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resource names. is it long-lasting no. but a trade. >> mary ann, do you side with jim or do you side with joe? yes, it's probably short covering. but does that mean it has a short life? >> i still think it has a short life. this is not where the leadership is in the market. it's not in commodities. china is slowing down. it's not growing. it's already built its cities and tunnels. you're not going to get that long-term demand. so i think when you just look at the commodity space, it's going to be in a trading range and could wind up being in a trading range not just for quarters but could wind up being for years. that means energy and the material sector will probably also need a period of time of healing. how are these companies going to grow their earnings? they need to figure out where crude is going to actually stabilize over a period of time. we may not have already seen all the downgrades for the energy companies by s&p. have we seen all the dividend cuts? this is a capital -- >> probably not. >> and so i think we're celebrating a little bit too soon. >> look, some are looking at some stock moves, and it's
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outside of just the energy patch. and, you know, with the miners and iron ore is being one of the most important things to watch in the market. reason why an old stephanie link name, valay, up -- last i checked, 8%. >> you see the iron ore prices? went through the roof last week. >> watch u.s. steel. >> you can't sustain that sort of move. and if you look at the fundamentals of iron ore, i think australia may have been -- for a matter of fact, put online the largest mine ever. iron ore is terrible. you wouldn't buy it on the fundamentals. no way. >> so even on the grander scale, let me interrupt for one second. where are we seeing huge paper? fxi. suddenly people are going in with thousands of contracts. the eem, for instance, today, again, a huge call spread being bought in there. but everything is short term. to your point, trades may be dash for trash. still trades but not longer term. >> i need to get to the bottom of whether you guys think this
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is sustainable and buyable or you sell into it and take advantage you've got from the market. >> it's tradeable and roll upable. great example. know how i talked about the gdx paper? been in for a long time. i'm out of 90% as of right now. my thought, if there is anything left, why wouldn't i want to be along for the ride? why wouldn't i buy more calls, higher level, take off everything that i've got, and still have an opportunity if we're going to go any higher as a trade. >> you're a seller, jim. >> take the money and run, scott. can't be any clearer than that. >> as example, okay, last couple of weeks we talked about concho. buying concho, 80, 85. you're a seller, 100 to 105. half the position. you're letting the other half ride, to pete's point. using a strategy of using stop losses but not getting out right now until the market tells you to get out. the market is not telling you to get out. you see the performance. the ad names. it's broad-based, reinflating.
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it's reinflating a lot of the asset prices that have been down for the last six months. and most importantly, it is a trade. >> all right. let's head down to jackie deangelis now on the floor of the nymex. taken brent to the highest levels this year and wti, as i send it to you, up 5% right now. >> hi, scott. that's right. a remarkable move to do. but traders are telling me this is a continuation of the strength we were seeing last week. this is sort of the seasonal momentum that transitioned that we were expecting to happen march, april time. it's happening at this point. equity strength is also going to propel oil prices higher, even though there are those out there saying it's oil propelling the equities higher. i will say this. it's not just in crude oil, also in gasoline too. retail prices, as well. we're seeing it at the pump. lundberg survey saying prices are up 7 cents in the last two weeks alone. also traders are saying no one wants to pick a short term top here, even if they have some
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more down side bias here. because there is too much momentum. this is a technical trade, once we breach these levels, keep going higher. and, of course, definitely you guys mentioned short covering happening today, scott. >> jackie, thank you so much. interesting moves today. so mary ann, if you don't think is sustainable, are you telling us you think the market and this rally is going to roll over? >> yes. i don't think it's over. i feel like we have been through a whole cycle already, in two months. i've been in a bull market and a bear market. >> because you say it's not a good rally. those are your words on our notes. >> from a technical stand point, this is a terrible rally. what you're looking for on a strong rally is the breadth market to be very strong with confirmation of volume and you don't have it. plus we didn't get the capitulation you normally do. so i think it's too early to celebrate. and i think the next thing we're going to start talking about, especially if we continue to see good economic data, is when is the fed raising rates? >> you can have a rally for a long time with a crappy breadth, couldn't you, and we saw that
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with high growth names. >> yes you can. just to go back to commodities, we haven't talked about the dollar and there is a strong inverse relationship. if the dollar actually gets stronger, if it the market believes the fed is going to raise rates, what's going to happen to commodities and commodity prices? they're going to roll over. >> human nature, when you get the gains, very quickly, is to want to exit. jim is a classic example of that. okay? i sound like donald trump right now. but jim, a couple weeks ago told all of us on the show this is the absolute bottom. great call. awesome call. but he's getting the gains so fast right now he wants to sell everything. that's the human emotion side and that's why i say stay in the low. >> some people are looking at what it has given you as a gift. as a gift, right? >> it is a gift. >> going lower -- a nice rebate. >> if you lose that gift, you feel like a complete idiot. you do. >> all right. good stuff. >> discipline. here's what's coming up on the "halftime report." >> still ahead -- a downgrade
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for duncan. and super-sized hopes for shake shack's numbers. find out which food stocks traders find most appetizing right now. plus, cracks in the iphone. why one analyst is lowering his outlook for the company and what it means for the stock. and -- >> omaha! >> he's gotten paid the most of any nfl player in history. he's also the league's most marketable star. >> i like it. >> we've got the dollars and cents of peyton manning inc, before and after retirement. it's all ahead on the "halftime report." there's a lot of places you never want to see "$7.95." [ beep ] but you'll be glad to see it here. fidelity -- where smarter investors will always be. if only the signs were as obvious when you trade. fidelity's active trader pro can help you find
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smarter entry and exit points and can help protect your potential profits. fidelity -- where smarter investors will always be.
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welcome back to the "halftime report." some of last year's biggest winners are lagging, missing out on the broader market rally. among the names falling are those fang stocks, facebook, amazon, netflix and alphabet, parent company of google. down as much as 3%, as you can see there. so far this year, these tech-ish type names, also consumer discretionary, no winning trade. facebook the only stock among them still positive for the year, up by a couple percent, while amazon, netflix down. alphabet off by 7%. so again, a bit of a reversal in the early part of this year's trade. >> dom, thanks. momentum going the other way on these names. is fang dead? >> i don't think it's dead.
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but all last week, all we heard every day was everybody coming on talking about hey, we're going, we don't want growth. blah, blah, blah. and it seems like that is playing out. not to any significant degree. >> amazon is down 17 year-to-year, netflix 14. >> and some -- >> alphabet. >> i think some of the concerns of netflix actually are very legitimate. this morning, walking on "squawk box," there was some good reason why there are some smart analysts out there talking about being on a hold right now. expansion globally, yes. but are they in the right products to give that expansion, going the right way? >> what about mary ann, the idea that moneys coming out of areas like this, and then finding a home in the beaten down cyclicals, industrials, transports? >> there is money coming out. but in terms of technology and fang, we believe this is the digital era and a lot of innovation comes from technology. and technology is just going -- the sector is going to be a natural bull market. and it's -- what pockets do you want to be in?
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fang got a little expensive. and so you're starting to see some profits. but there is other parts, particularly in software, that have done very well. there is parts of semi conductor that can still do very well. as every gadget that we have, drone, robot, needs a chip. >> problem is, joe, some look at fang and say it's still expensive. some stocks are still pricey. >> yes, yes, for sure. listen, i don't think you want to take facebook, i don't think you want to take amazon and i don't think you want to completely liquidate them from portfolio -- >> what initiates new money into those stocks rather than somewhere else that presents a more attractive value? right? what's the catalyst to do that? >> the catalyst for that would be some of the areas of the market right now, which are experiencing a mean reversion, growing tired. but we're not at that point, just yet. so you can't expect that. as example, talk about fang stocks, talk about a merging markets. that is where money is flowing. emerging markets almost
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unchanged for the year right now. could we have ever thought that over the last 6, 12, 18 months? emerging markets left for dead. that's where some of the momentum type of trades that we saw in '15 in the fang names, that's where the money is going right now. so your expectations should not be that excited that fang is going to return very quickly. >> okay. from fangs to food. and some of those stocks in the spotlight today. as shake shack gets set to reporting earnings after the bell. also duncan brands getting do downgra downgraded. pete, lunch time, we start with you. >> i would go with mcdonald's. not only do we see activity in there constantly, ever since it was below 100, up reasonable, we had some activity last week, i continue to look at the company and i love what steve easter brook has done and not only the menu itself but going to the all day for breakfast. and a lot of people are now talking more and more from a real estate perspective. i think that's strong. but also the restructuring in terms of drive-thru trying to
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make it efficient. some offerings, trying to make them not necessarily healthier but efficient for the operators to be able to get people in and out. i think they're moving in the right direction. something that was stagnant for far too long. >> what about jim shack? shake shack. >> this has the feeling of a broken growth stock, scott. we have been talking about the fang a minute ago. >> is rally back from some of the depths it was down to? >> yes, from the depths. if you look at the chart, really doesn't show that much of an up trend. >> the last month. give me a one-month chart on shack as we have the conversation? go ahead. >> look, they put up the one-year chart and that doesn't look like a massive rally there. >> there is your rally. 21% in one month. >> it's still at 100 times earnings. it's got to be priced to perfection and you've got to see perfection. you're starting to see indications the growth is slowing. still very high. but the growth is slowing, making it difficult for a 100 pe. >> and duncan. >> duncan is interesting, performs and works well.
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i want to go back to the burger names for a second, whether sonic, wendy's or jack in the box, those names have significantly underperformed at prior performing relatively well in the last couple years. i think those names return once again. i also think a name like yum, which for most of us, we had -- did not have high expectations for. you're beginning to see a little of a return there to yum. money coming back as it trades in the upper 70s and lastly a domestic pizza name, drop knows, trading at 133, one heck of a run over the last three weeks. that's a place i like also. >> what about food stocks? discretionary names, restaurants -- >> right. so we look at your credit cards and swipes at the bank. we're trying to contrast that, okay, the consumer should be spending that windfall from lower crude oil prices. and where they're spending is in the restaurants. so, i mean, they're going to pick and choose where they want to eat. but net net restaurants should do well. >> not similar to what you heard from jamie dimon on the air last
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week. the consumer spending, t & e and other areas. are these the places to be, not just food but more broadly discretionary names, restaurants, other entertainment ideas or otherwise? >> i think the most impressive thing out of the last earnings cycle has been a lot of discounters in terms of the retail space and how well they're doing in the traffic numbers of a tjx, of ross and some of the rest of them. when we got through this, teen retail is so difficult that we're going to have ups and downs throughout that. what's been the most consistent has been those names that i just mentioned and those that have exposure. and i know that we're going to be talking later. but a name like a nordstrom, because of the fact they've got exposure with the rack, they've got that discount area, as well as the e-commerce, very, very strong. coming up, jim cramer thinks casino stocks have bottomed. so why is jon najarian selling out of one? he's going to call in to explain that move. and disney's new hit. >> hi. >> om goodness.
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they really did hire a bunny. what? >> "zootopia" dominated the weekend box office. what the movie means for the stocks. all coming up next. at ally bank, no branches equals great rates. it's a fact. kind of like grandkids equals free tech support. oh, look at you, so great to see you! none of this works. come on in.
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can a a subconscious. mind? a knack for predicting the future. reflexes faster than the speed of thought. can a business have a spirit? can a business have a soul? can a business be...alive? victoria stilwell, you appear on tv working with canines. are you a dog lover, watson? i do not own a dog. but i work with veterinarians. how do you do that? i help them analyse over one hundred thousand pages of medical studies. that's great... 'cause they can't exactly tell us what's wrong with them. isn't that right, rusty? rusty. who is a good boy? who is a good boy? you are. yes, you are. watson, i think you need to work on your dog voice.
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it is time now for a segment we call the missing link. equities portfolio manager stephanie link, pushing her shopping cart for a bargain. joins us with word of a stock she has added to the portfolio. hey, steph. >> hi, scott. how are you? >> good, thanks. where did you find value? >> nordstrom. as you know, pretty much all of the department stores in the past year have had a really tough go of it. other than jimmy's jcpenney. but nordstrom down 26%. this is a best in class retailer. and i like it, because i like their concepts. they have the high end, they have off price, they have e-commerce. and oh, by the way, they own 20% of their real estate. so they may be able to monetize that, should they choose to do so. last year was a really heavy investment spend year for them. in fact, probably the peak in this cycle.
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your expenses start to come down, and while the top line is going to continue to be a challenge, given the macro, i think, at 15 times forward estimates, it's very attractive, not to mention, you get a 2.7% dividend yield while you wait for the top line to recover. >> you're buying into the whole consumer is actually spending this gas savings finally. whether they were, they weren't before. you think there is more definitive evidence they are. >> i think you are seeing it in pockets. mary ann mentioned it in the -- at the banks and at the credit card companies. jamie dimon mentioned it, as well. i think the high end, it went from everyone thought the high end was going to stay very firm. and the low end would benefit from the lower oil prices to kind of the reverse. now everybody wants the low end. and no one wants the high end. and i just think there is a balance. there is an equilibrium here and i think the stocks got so oversold. so i like this. this is not a trade by any means. you have to be patient. because there are some
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headwinds, given the internet and amazons of the world. but i like that nordstrom has a lot of different ways they can win. and, again, if they decide to monetize their real estate, that's an added kicker. >> steph, see you soon. >> thanks, scott. all right. tiaa, steph knee link. let's do our trader blitz four trades on four stocks. first up, united continental. its ceo, oscor munoz, set to return next week. >> he had had just taken over. a very, very short time frame before this happened. and thank goodness for him. the heart transplant, great to see him back at work. this company i still think has plenty of room to the up side. a great job in terms of helping out the shareholders, buying back stock last year. talk about another 1 million 2 this year. i think they're supporting their stock. i think this name goes higher. >> jimmy, you own disney, "zootopia" killed it this week. >> "zootopia" gravy on an otherwise tasty dish. the stock up from its high last summer. trades at 17 times this year's
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earnings which for this stock is a very low multiple when you consider the franchises it has. "star wars," "marvel." i think the concern over espn are fully in the stock at this point. you should own disney. >> yahoo! joe. star board taking aim. it's going to happen here. >> once again, continued uncertainty, you don't know what the management strategy is going to be. reverse spend focusing. the stock has had a nice run. i would take some profits. >> what do you do with gold, mary ann? >> i think the one commodity that can go higher is gold. i think you can get up to 1400. we see clients get nervous, buying gold as a hedge within the portfolio. >> all right. coming up, betting on the casinos. pete is in the trade. cramer is a fan. and today ubs says when is a buy? should you stick with the gaming stocks? we'll debate that. and jim laboren that will dominating the leaderboard right now. four traders in the green.
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jimmy up more than 9%. jon najarian making some moves. details just ahead. know your financial plan
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we're always looking for ways to speed up your car insurance search. here's the latest. problem is, we haven't figured out how to reverse it. for now, just log on to plug in some simple info and get up to 50 free quotes. choose the lowest and hit purchase. now...if you'll excuse me, i'm late for an important function. saving humanity from high insurance rates. hello, everybody. i'm sue herrera. here your cnbc news update.
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vice president joe biden speaking before several hundred u.s. airmen at a u.s. air base in the united arab emirates. he vowed the united states and its allies quo, quote, squeeze the heart of isis and destroy it. the emirates is the first stop on biden's mid east tour that will also take him to israel and jord jordan. international leaders discussing the migrant crisis gripping europe. they will formalize the borders of those heading north. the u.n. is appealing for urgent aid for the people of ethiopia as the country faces its worst drought in 50 years, leading to food shortages. water and animal feed are scarce, leading to widespread livestock deaths. flags over the u.s. capitol flying at half-staff to honor first lady nancy reagan, who died yesterday at the age of 94. she will be buried next to her
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husband at the ronald reagan presidential library in simi valley, california. our jane wells is out there. and that is the cnbc news update this hour. scott, back to you. >> now to a triple decker calls of the day. first up, pacific crest has cut apple's price target. the firm says second quarter revenue will be light due to slowing iphone demand. we heard this before. they keep their overweight rating and dropped the price target down by a few bucks. >> the headline could easily read you have a 25% increase to the target. i would take that any day of the week. look, so their estimates come down a little bit. the estimates are not going to matter until the iphone 7 comes out. that's what everybody in the stock is waiting for now. >> micron was downgraded to reduce. that firm cites market share concerns. joseph. >> they have to cut production. the dram industry has to cut production. i don't see it. and i think specific to micron, $11, i know it looks very tempting to buy it down here.
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but it's something i wouldn't do. >> stock down 31% over six months year-to-date. 18% in one year, 60. >> still wouldn't touch it. not micron. >> the problem is everybody is after market share, right? that's the real problem, scott. nobody is really going in there for profits. everybody is just cannibalizing each other and because of that, nothing for them. that's why this target is at 8. it could very well happen. other places -- >> give me one. >> i would rather be tied to apple. than in micron. >> kind of like opec focusing on market share. all right and winn upgraded to buy at uvs. and this morning jim cramer said the call is a little late. >> the numbers are done going down. and the numbers can go up. and steve wynn has done a remarkable job. i would say on any pullback, the numbers are so good that going forward you want to own it. now, i wish you could see this, 50 to 80 in a straight line.
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>> okay, the headline, of course, from jim, not so much that it was late but that it's a good place to be. >> it's a great place to be. and i think -- i know john just got out of whatever he's getting out of something or whatever. mgm or whatever it is. but what i like going on right now is winn is steve wynn gave the path by putting out that million shares. and another million shares. and essentially 2 million shares on an average price of $60 a share, that told the market everything we wanted to know. also addressing other issues we think might be going positive going forward, relaxing on some of the bands they have had in the past, including smoking but also relaxing a little bit with visas and so forth. so there are a lot of things starting to move, and at least shift into a more stabilized sort of a transition for the world. >> numbers are so good, you get it in the 70s. that would be fabulous. that is what cramer is saying about that stock specifically. but thinks the casino stocks in general have bottomed. here's a quick look at our leaderboard. as we said, jim in first.
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and jon najarian on his heels. and today made a trade. so jon, you heard what cramer said about winn. his point overall was that the casino stocks have bottomed. and yet you sold one. >> right. well, scott, i -- for our clients, we still own lbs and winn both. but mgm, i did sell out of. again, this is a short term trade in the portfolio. i agree with jim cramer 100%, although i think just as he said, 50 to 80 or in this case, 50 to 8 in the case of win, i think that's pretty much a straight line. we don't think you jump on that at the high end. i think you wait. however, we have overwritten calls like crazy in those casino stocks that i spoke of, and i did liquidate mgm today because i sold half as it topped higher last week and got out of the rest of it today. 200-day moving average seems to be pretty firm resistance here, and that's what we've come up
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against and pulled back in the case of mgm. i also bought ingersoll-rand today. >> ir. like this one. yep, ir. got an upgrade from the $68 price target. normal trading activity is about 250 calls already today at noon, traded 7,000 calls. and jpmorgan, aviation and transportation conference tomorrow. these guys present there. i think the stock is very, very cheap. broke above the 200-day moving average today first time since august last year. i own the stock, own the calls. and i added to the portfolio today. >> you call from the top of a double black diamond or from the lift? >> i am. we just got another six inches of powder at the base of that. >> feel terrible for him. >> i'll head home later. and by the way, jim, i know you've done some sort of a deal with the devil to get as high up in this competition as quickly as you have. so, again, congratulations.
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>> it's a long competition. it's a long competition, my friend. in the meantime, i'll pray for you out there in the snow. >> please do. >> yeah, enjoy the slopes. we'll see you back here soon. >> thanks, judge. >> jon najarian. you can follow the action at coming up, mary ann bartells going back to his technician routes are. she says breaking out and breaking down. plus, it's called the metal with a phd in economics. copper just had its best week in five years. what does that say about the health of the economy and markets? traders weigh in next. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide.
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expert on international economics. so much ahead on "power lunch." scott, back over to you. >> mary ann bartels putting her technician hat back on today. so what are the key levels we're watching? because i don't know -- if people know, you're a technician at heart. >> i am. what the s&p did is reached what we call a double bottom. we broke out, and we're now trading up into key resistance area, which is at 2,000, where we're trading today, up to 2020. if you break 2020, you'll probably do a run for 2050. this is a lot of overhead to get through. we don't think you're going to get through that very easily. there is still risk we have to come down and test these levels. >> what if the fundamentals trump? maybe things got overdone on fundamental concerns that may not fully exist? >> well, i would say the market actually went down on fundamentals. e has been contracting. earnings down 5%. >> and fear. >> yes, and fear. but their top line growth isn't there and margins aren't there. really what we have to pay attention to, what are analysts
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doing with their numbers? still taking them down. that's the risk we have, is e can stay under pressure. e stays under pressure, then we see p, which is price come back do you know. >> 1820 is where you think the s&p could bottom out. >> that's -- we can certainly test it. again, it's going to be on that e. if you can't grow those earnings, the risk is, you test this, and if things get really negative, maybe you take to a new low. >> let's talk about what's breaking out and what's breaking down. out first. >> well, here's new leadership no one is talking about. i'm not hearing you talk about it on your show. consumer staples reaching a record all-time high. they are expensive by historic measures. what you have are large cap companies with great balance sheets, good dividends and raising dividends. i just saw hundreds of clients in florida and all of them are asking me, where are they getting dividends, especially now that we're talking about negative interest rates around the world. we're not looking for it here. but if rates stay lower for longer and there is no yield, where are clients going to go? this is one sector they think
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they'll start shopping in. >> how about breaking down? >> here's the thing. we talked about commodities at the top of the show. that's old leadership. that leadership started in 1999. and when we look at the energy sector, and we look at the material sector, they're significantly broken. so we're talking about them rally because of short covering so they went down and up a lot. this is not where we're seeing new leadership emerge. we think this is old leadership. >> mary ann bartels on the technicals. copper up 8% in just a month. jackie deangelis at the nymex with more. >> good morning, scott. copper hitting multiyear lows. we have staged a comeback. what's been driving this rally and is the worst behind us? >> well, i think that, you know, china is willing to go more all-in. which is kind of something we knew. the fact that there is a little bit of backwardation in the copper curve means there is a supply. but the most important thing about this rally, some of it
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came with alongside of dollar strength. now it looks to me like the euro is stronger. that could kick it up. if the euro breaks below 109, that sort of weakness would drag commodities down. but other than that, i think it's green light. >> jeff, any concern we've come too far too fast when it comes to the copper trade and we may be overbought here, as scott said? 8 merced 8% in a month alone? >> great point, jackie. i do not think copper is overbought. yes, we have come off the 193 low in january. a 20% pop since the low was in. i think it was deeply oversold. a great point about china. i'm going to try to keep it simplistic. i have it on here. it's all about china, controlling the supply. they're going to reduce supply, prices go up. so right now look to the october high, 242. we should go test that level. so i think the bid will continue in copper. >> all right, gentlemen. thank you. we'll see you on the live show tomorrow, 1:00 p.m. eastern. futures >> did kill berg take a shot at
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eurio? >> yeah, and he didn't get a chance to respond. >> i've got no response. check in with five minutes and i'll have something great. >> not even a veiled shot. straight at him. >> just came at him. >> guys, thank you. coming up, two press conferences happening within a few hours. peyton manning set to make his retirement official. tennis star maria sharapovards what she calls a major announcement. it's up next. and as we head to break, energy, materials and health care. s&p up nearly 4. we're back after this. here at td ameritrade, they work hard. wow, that was random. random? no. it's all about understanding patterns. like the mail guy at 3:12pm every day or jerry getting dumped every third tuesday. jerry: every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart
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welcome back to "fast money halftime report." the message the president was conveying to the american people was do not listen to the presidential candidates on the left and right who act as if nothing was done after the financial crisis of 2008-2009. he pointed to the effects of dodd-frank and said they're real. >> wall street reform, dodd-frank, the laws we passed, have worked. i want to emphasize this because it is popular in the media, in
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political discourse, both on the left and the right, to suggest that the crisis happened and nothing changed. that is not true. >> now, what the president was talking about was among other things the higher capital requirements on banks, which mean that the prospect of another crash and failure and big systemically risky institutions taking down the economy is much diminished. that's not what you hear from presidential candidates who look at how big banks are bigger and say we haven't solved too big to fail. president obama was rebutting them today. >> jeff harwood, thank you. do you like the banks or not? >> from a very, very long-term perspective i think there is a lot of value there, but -- >> that says no to me. couch it with very, very, very. very, very, very long-term. >> dodd frank is really -- we have the best tier one capital that we have ever seen. the banking system is definitely solid. but the thing is how are the banks going to grow?
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and as long as they're not allowed to aggressively lend, it is going to take time. i would say in time the banks have great value. >> all right, throwing in the towel, that's what we're expecting to hear today from super bowl champion peyton manning and could hear from tennis star maria sharapova. eric gemmy joins us to break down the numbers. >> we're talking the number one athletes in each of their sports. we know peyton manning is going to announce his retirement in a few minutes here at 1:00. if you look at his all time earnings, number one in the nfl just ever almost a quarter billion dollars. so that blows away his brother, which is -- surprisingly number two, and tom brady at number three. so not only is he on field number oner, he's off field number one endorser, $12 million a year. most interestingly, though, he's got a papa john's deal that gives him 21 papa john's franchises in the denver area.
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he's making money in real cash and on the real estate franchise business. >> stock side too with papa john's, don't you think? >> he's getting this multivehicle investment here. so when he walks away, he'll still be an entrepreneur, still be an owner making rese ining r going forward. >> maria sharapova hasn't done bad for herself off the court overall. >> number one off the court. with seer riieaso serena, numbe court. maria has not been. we don't know for sure what the 3:00 p.m. announcement will be. we think that it will be a retirement, but it could be a new flavor of her sugarpova candy. another entrepreneur -- >> spectrum is that wide? new flavor of jellybean or -- it's come to that? >> some bionic shoulder. we don't know for sure. a major announcement. we think that's what the story line is probably retirement, because she's dropped out of
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this week's indian wells tournament and hasn't play in the the past year. almost 29, which is like 100 for tennis players. >> your definition of what a major announcement is. eric, thanks. that was all good. >> peyton manning? >> love him. i wonder endorsements wise, post football career, is that going to continue. is there still going to be an attraction to peyton manning going forward based on some of the stories coming out and the fact he won't be on the field. >> all the media outlets that air nfl games, all are recruiting him. >> let's have him on. bring him on. >> pete, a trade coming up where he sees unusual activity. a look ahead to the earnings out week. much more. "halftime report" back after this.
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when something unusual happens, one of the najarians, sometimes both, tries to find it
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and make a little money on it. what do you see today? >> harley, talked about the easy ride harley, hog. the april 50 call is active today, a big block of 8,000 trading for 60 cents. very aggressive buying here. stock made a really nice move since february 24th. up to a level where it is now. expecting to now pierce through 50. these options are very, very strong today. i'm in it. i'm in it for a few weeks. they're going up to april. i'm in april. >> your holding period is april. >> yes. >> how about some stocks about to report earnings. urban out fitters set to report today and shake shack. there is your look there, dick's sporting goods, another one to get to. urban. >> you're not going to know until earnings come out. this is a season for retail. it haves and have-nots. urban out fitters, strong franchise, could be in the haves category. >> dick's sporting goods. >> i love the name. we looked at foot locker and some numbers weren't everything we expected. i sort of continue to expect the
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same thing from dick's. they have done this in the past. they always seem to blame something about golf galaxy or something in the earns call. they're in the right sweet spot. got to execute better. >> marian, back to the story of the day, the run, commodities are making, leading some to believe that the worst is over. and you have a bottom in place in a number of different areas of commodities, whether it be oil, iron ore, copper, et cetera. dow at the high of the day. there is crude oil at the high of the day. you don't think it lasts? >> that's not -- that's the old leadership. i think everyone is looking in the rear view mirror. this is what happens when you enter a new secular bull market. everybody is focused on the new leadership. i think tech is part of it. i think health care is part of it. that's because the baby boomers, they're going to need health care. there is something going on in consumer staples. that sector is hitting an all time new high when other sectors look poor. something happening in that
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sector. >> marian bartel, see you again soon. "power lunch" starts now. scott, thank you very much. welcome, everybody, to "power lunch." i'm tyler mathisen with melissa lee, michelle caruso-cabrera and brian sullivan. a day of consequential fed speak ahead of next week's big meeting. to steve liesman in washington for breaking news. >> thank you very much. two high level fed officials speaking at this hour. fed vice chair stan fisher, fed governor a littlail brainerd. she says the tight labor markets from the strong employment report on friday does not guarantee higher inflation. both fed officials will talk about the relationship between inflation and employment being broken or at least not as consistent as it had been in the past. she says inflation is persistently


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