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tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  March 8, 2016 12:00pm-1:01pm EST

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others not doing well include logitech which is down 3.5. so a little bit of a shift versus what we had seen in previous days and just all the stocks beaten down. big day tomorrow. kayla has jack dorsey at 4:30. let's get back to headquaters. ♪ >> carl, thanks so much. welcome to the halftime report. our top trade this hour, the spectacular surge in commodity stocks and whether the rally is sustainable. joining us for the hour today, joe, steven, and pete. stocks are giving back some today and at the heart of the sell off the trade everyone is talking about from oil to iron ore, copper, and almost every other commodity that rally since mid january lifted stocks all across the sector. a run that lifted the market as
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well from its lows. question now is how long can it last and that debate fwins right now. is this real in commodities or not? >> it's been massive short covering. if you take a look at hedge fund flows they start borrowing and start exiting the short positions in these names. >> you couldn't wait to start the show and tell me that it's not. >> i don't see anything that changed. as a matter of fact thing versus gotten worse. we've seen what china came out and said with their trade numbers so that economy is not picking up and they have major issues there so that will continue to lead to just lower commodity prices and also if you take a look at the iron ore producer, you have seen the major rally there, in fact, the supply has not ended. so we had valley come out and announce new joint venture. >> 8 or 9% we mentioned on the show. >> but capacity has not come out in iron ore so to me nothing has changed. you can see short covering. there's way too much bearishness. lots of late players came to the short positions.
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>> valley giving back 13%. and you made the argument though that you do think it's real. you do think that there's legs to go in what we have seen in commodities. take the other side of steve. >> i take the other side of steve. jimmy and i had a conversation about this when oil was a dollar higher so i never liked to say how high is high. i like to use stops underneath the market. this has been going on for the better part of five weeks where crude oil is recovering and on significant short covering. there's further upside. i'm long at 33.5. i do think that some of the numbers in regards to petroleum imports in through china are very encouraging. they were up 19% to 8 million barrels a day. that's the highest on record so obviously you're seeing the chinese for the first time importing oil. that's a good thing. some of the licensing in terms of the refiner imports, they're being granted at an expedited rate. so that's lending itself there
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also. so i'm wrong at 33.5. this has been going on for awhile. how high is high? i don't know. i still think there's further upside. we'll see. >> can we just address the chinese buying? to me that's not an indication of demand. that's an indication of capital flight. the only way to get capital out of the company legally is buying oil and companies. so that's what they are doing. >> and he vieth but it also takes much needed barrels off the marketplace because the other side of that is they are limiting exports because they didn't move the $40 barometer. so the exports aren't going out so they're taking in and not giving out. >> the moves have been remarkable. the stocks that have rallied back. the kinder morgans of the world and some of the names that are up 50% since january 20th, those lows, maybe coen sides with a little bit of healing in high
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yield. energy rises and oil rises and the stocks rises as well. >> you separate the commodity from the commodity stock. what happened is the stocks themselves had the ability to now strengthen their balance sheets and some of them as you saw issued debt and issued equities. that gave them the stability when oil was over $30. i think that is why we are going to have a temporary pause but i believe this is part of a temporary trend. >> a pause in the commodity stocks. >> you need to form a base. >> we have almost gone straight up since january 20th. you have a pretty good debate. yesterday we had that note not usually made public but it was by the consultant group which is looked at and they say oil at 50. you're going to get supply cuts. today you have jeff curry of gold man sacks saying forget it. this is not sustainable. the recent weakness of the dollar. the strength in gold. the policy announcements in china and the pick up in chinese credit are just not sustainable
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in their view. >> i don't think it's sustainable either. it's short covering. i agree 100% with what steve was talking about with short covering. everything we have seen, scott, for the last couple of weeks has been very short-term in terms of what we're seeing in our world. the beauty is it gives you an insight into how far out are people willing to bet on these moves? if you look at the xme last week they rolled out one week. they moved from friday to friday. if you go through the various areas throughout this cycle and you start look at energy names and material names and you see all the shorts and how big the shorts are there, of course it's short covering. there's no doubt in my mind and when you see the volumes the way they're coming in right now in all the individual names the only exception to that would be in gold. gold we have seen go way out. >> it doesn't necessarily have an expiration date does it? short covering? >> well it does. >> it does when you've got derivatives and options out there and the people that want
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to see where the thing is going to go and how long they perceive this is going to happen, it does. >> with the short covering you have the prices on shorts to borrow stocks where it would cost you 10%. that means it would cost you about 10% a month to stay short. so that's the expiration when you can't take that pain anymore. when the stock gets called back. >> i'm being tongue and cheek here. the fact that we don't have a short covering rally for longer than we've had it. >> you can in the future's market. maybe not in the equity names. maybe not in the equity names that you can trade the options. the futures market and the options is incredibly limited so you 100% can in the future's market. >> do we still have the sound of joe because we talk about since january 20th and we have made a big deal about what the markets themselves have done both from the commodity itself and then the stocks. crude is up 40%. if you recall on january 20th and 21st and i hope that most of
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you do, joe said this about what he sees in the market and whether a bottom could be in. let's listen. >> i think it happened yesterday. it was expiration on oil. a lot of this is stuff just 25 years in the business watching the oil futures market. watching the market itself. there were a lot of shorts yesterday that really, after 12:30 or 1:00 pressed the down side in both oil futures and in the s&p itself. they are stuck short down there. the next 500 points for the dow are up. oil is going to rally above 30. >> so you were referring to january 20th. since january 20th, crude is up 40%. iron ore is up 44. copper is up 13. energy as a sector is up 16. materials are up 14 and some of the stocks within it are up more than 50%. where is it going now? >> i still hi that the pain is above 40 dhrs in oil. i still see that.
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i could be wrong. everyone could be right. this could be the moment to sell out of it and as i said before, below 33.5 i'm completely wrong. it's time to neutralize your position but i still think it's above $40. if it gets above $40 is it going to 45 or 50? probably not but there's more short covering to come. >> we want to stay with the commodity trade here. it's such an important trade in the market and some of the biggest players are holding events including chevron outlining their production and spending plans. morgan joins us live with the details. >> well, chevron ceo outlined three major points today to maintain and grow the dividend while slashing spending and ramping up production. so chevron is cutting cap extargets for 2017 and 2018 to $22 billion annually. that's down as much as a third and that's happening as major projects like australia's facility come online.
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2016 cap exis staying the same. the energy giant expect process duction growth through 2020 with 2016 output flat to up 4%. the game plan, shorter cycle, higher return investments. other formations versus investing in long-term mega projects that the company says are uneconomical at the current prices. chevron can continue to pay its dividend through 2017 and that's assuming that brent crude recovers to $52 barrel and of course the question is with brent below $40 today, will it actually hit 50 and sustain it any time soon. so if you take a look at shares of cbx they're trading lower right now down nearly 2%. that's on the heels of lower crude oil and just a programming note, ceo and chairman john watson will be on closing bell for an exclusive interview as well. back to you. >> thank you so much. with the latest for us there. if you were to buy something in the energy space today what would bit?
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>> i own some and i just think that group is just way, way oversold. not the whole group. there are are upstreams that can go bankrupt undoubtedly. downstreams are not particularly cheap. those are the ones that deal with the refiners but the midtreatment that focus on transportation storage with longer term contracts. >> one of them here? >> it's the index. that's the overall index. some of the midstream ones, it's a little bit on the riskier side but i think it's also solved. they raised a billion and a half dollars from their general partner about a month ago. i also think if you want to go to the refining side you have tllp. that's got a good yield. >> you're saying if the viewers sort of agree with you, the mlp if they're not so familiar with individual names. >> absolutely. that's for the retail investor that's not doing work, we have been working on this for four months. it's the way for them to play
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it. >> in that same space what you're talking about here, you're talking about amj and that's one of those we put up here for unusual activity. huge buying in there scott. that's going out into the far distance and i'm not talking about weekly trades like right now. what we're seeing in all the rest of these types of names where we're talking more about short covering but in something like that where people are actually going out into the future and giving you a bit of a time line along with the huge size and the huge commitment of capital that they're putting into the trades. >> i like the refiners. i think they have been sold off. this is the season that it's slow. demand goes up, volume goes up. you're going to get paid to hold those. >> can i ask you a question about that? the seasonal trade is from december to march, maybe april. so we're through that number one. number two, if you take long only funds that have to have a waiting in energy. lower weighting than normal. they have all been hiding in the refiners so if the group reverses i see that money coming out going into the range
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resources and into the other names. >> but i think money has come out of it already marathon had an issue with it. >> what's the highs though. >> they're still down about 20% off it's peak and i think if you look at the quality guys these are twuns that you want to own. energy is still 7% of the s&p. >> you certainly make an interesting point here that we have been listing off names of stocks that have come back. kinder morgan, murphy, diamond, range which are up almost 40% from the lows but they're still well off their highs. >> right. >> let's look at the financial institutions we were talking about one month ago the potential and the high yield and the impact on regional banks from energy exposure. look month to date. up 11% month to date. ibtx up 7%. texas capital, 14%. so these are names that a month ago we were highly concerned about if you think there's
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stabilization in the energy space and their energy loan exposure is 7, 8, 9%. these are names you can acquire. >> i think that's a fools rally. i'm still concerned because a lot of the lend as good reserved base lending. those reserves are worth at least half of what they were. and they look at these loans and they have no idea what they're doing. they just want loan growth. i'm not going to mention one that you mentioned where the ceo is coming out and saying we have no risk. the entire book is energy loans. of course there's risk. >> you don believe the higher yield rally either? >> no, right now there's 17 investment grade ratings for example. down dramatically. nine are on the bubble. likely be downgrade. you could see according to the credit people, 50 to $100 billion of investment grait grade energy credits going down into high yield. just because oil stabilizes at 40 if that's what it does, doesn't mean that the profitability is picking up.
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they'll still lose money and they're still upside down. so no i don't. >> all right. here's what's coming up on the halftime report. >> still ahead, turbulence for the airlines. >> i had a dream last night that we went down. >> yeah. >> it was terrible. you were in it. >> what? >> activists are shaking things up at united and jet blue is losing altitude. we'll tell you how to trade it. plus our international sandwich correspondent might have a little indigestion today. josh brown weighs in on shake shack's big drop and the rookie is making trades. our newest competitor unveils his first move in the halftime portfolio. it's all ahead on the halftime report. equals great rates. it's a fact. kind of like grandkids equals free tech support. oh, look at you, so great to see you! none of this works. come on in. ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪
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man 1: he just got fired. man 2: why? man 1: network breach. man 2: since when do they fire ceos for computer problems? man 1: they got in through a vendor. man 1: do you know how many vendors have access to our systems? man 2: no. man 1: hundreds, if you don't count the freelancers. man 2: should i be worried? man 1: you are the ceo. it's not just security. it's defense. bae systems.
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february available down to about 10 to 10.5%. they're pointing to tougher comparables. those shares still hovering near session lows right now by about 7%. meanwhile southwest reported a 13.5% increase in another me trick. revenue passenger miles for february. that's smaller than the 14.7% increase in another me trick called available seat miles. it's not reclaimed positive territory and a story just broke for us, an activist group launching a proxy fight against
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united airlines pushing for new board members including the former ceo of con ntinental airlines. he says united's lows are not about the ceo oscar munoz. >> they're keeping oscar and not running against oscar. everybody loves, including me, oscar. it's the board that has got kind of a country club atmosphere. obviously hasn't been paying attention. hasn't set the right goals and quite frankly hasn't followed good governance processes and procedures. >> now moments ago an internal memo obtained by cnbc, oscar said that the two funds involved here want to put their nominees in control of the board and our company. he also urges united employees to stay focused on running the airline overall so a very big piece of drama developing in the business specifically with united continental. back over to you. >> big enough that phil flew in
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from chicago to talk about it. thanks for being here. our experts on all things airlines and automobiles. they say it's not about oscar but if oscar supports the board it is about oscar some what. there could be a fight looming here. he kept saying it's about the board of director and this country club atmosphere. where have the two hedge funds been for the last five years. this is not a secret that they have been underperforming to the rest of the industry. where were they when they were falling short relative all the airlines and for him to say in the dark of the night they got rid of jeff. no it was after a federal investigation said he was
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exchanging a route for the work that needed to be done. >> they did get rid of him kind of overnight. >> when they were finally presented. >> when the news broke. >> but let's be clear here. united airlines struggled relative to their competitors. look at the stock over the last five years. everybody has said this is a sleeping apology yantd. how many times have we heard that over the last five years. sleeping giant could be doing so much better and now they have oscar munoz in there and hasn't had a chance to put his fingerprints on the company and make the changes that are necessary. now that he's coming back on a full time basis next week he has the chance to institute the changes there. they want to throw some chaos into the board room. >> better late than never. can you make that argument or are you making the argument that where have these guys been? they're late to the party. >> that's my argument. my question is where were you for the last five years. >> i don't really understand that question.
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i'll tell you where they were. returns have been phenomenal. they were there making money. all they do is travel and sas. software as a solution. par has a phenomenal reputation as private equity in vc. they were making money. >> we just showed a five year chart. >> they go where they see the opportunity so they didn't have to be there. >> no. wait a second they're relative to their competitors. >> relative to the competitors they were not doing as well. >> i'm not talking about united. they found other opportunities to make money. maybe they consider the rest of the universe and i think there's some holdings there to be closer to full value. they say where has carl icahn been for all of these years. that's not their job to be the watchdog of the industry. their job is to make money for investors and now they see
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making money for investors in united. it's as simple as that. >> if you're an investor and you heard them say it's a country club mentality that they have been asleep at the wheel, why are you announcing something. i understand what you're saying. an opportunity to make money. why weren't you saying something two years ago. three years ago. >> i don't disagree with you at all. but the issue here is we want united to have the same comps as delta. delta is the best run airline so the stock trades at a premium compared to the other airlines. whether you get activists or new management as an issue i think what's more important here is that we have somebody watching to say margins should be up to where your competitors are. why are you still flying routes unprofitable. you have one of the best airlines out there. there were so many excuses in terms of technology. i want to see some improvement with margins. i want to see them improve. >> why not? why not let oscar munoz
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implemented the changes he plans to implemented. >> you have to say they're also doing a pr game. they're coming in and buying the shares at the same time. putting some pressure. who knows what they're going to do long-term. i think in a way i also don't want management to think wait a second we can do things that we did in the past so let's get a real team in there and say focus on profitability and making money. >> not that share performance tells the whole story every single time but if you have been a longer term shareholder in united at least over the past three or five years you're nothing but happy. >> we have done very well. >> stock over the last three years is up 78%. we just showed it over five years. it was up 130%. >> delta has been fabulous and then you have united and american both have work to do. with oil prices at these levels they should be making so much more money. >> there's no argument there. there's no argument that they are lagging their competitors. >> but the other issue too is
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that if you're a big investor and you want to shake things up a little bit and you sense a moment of weakness which at the very top of united there's been a few moments of weakness, you see blood in the water. this is the perfect time to say we have been on the sideline and then folks think this is an 80 dhr stock but of the big three this is the lager. >> there's nobody in disagreement. so this is just the right moment for the activist to finally step up and say you know what, we got ourselves in position to attack on the board front and if we can get six of the 15 seats we have ourselves in a great position now to take over and make sure that this is run the right way. >> if you go back to 2013 it was largest holding then.
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so i am guessing that they have given the board enough time. >> lucky to have you here today. thanks. >> good to be here. >> coming up our resident burger expert calling in to talk the big tumble on the outlook that the company save with everyoarn. stephanie link behind it yesterday singing the company's raises. why is an analyst saying it's time to bail on the stock then? a retail debate just ahead. owen! hey kevin. hey, fancy seeing you here. uh, i live right over there actually. you've been to my place. no, i wasn't...oh look, you dropped something. it's your resume with a 20 dollar bill taped to it. that's weird. you want to work for ge too. hahaha, what? well we're always looking for developers who are up for big world changing challenges like making planes, trains and hospitals run better. why don't you check your new watch and tell me what time i should be there. oh, i don't hire people. i'm a developer. i'm gonna need monday off.
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>> shares of shake shack sinking after the company gave weaker than expected guidance. it's down 61% from the 52 week high. josh brown owns it and joins us now on the phone. what do you make of the quarter which was really good and the o outlook which we don't like. >> i thought they had a great quarter. they beat on earnings. they beat on revenue. they beat on sales. they launched new products that were very well received and their expansion plan is right on target and, you know, really, the question is where does this name belong of course and it
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probably tint belong at 96 after the post ipo short squeeze. but maybe it probably doesn't belong in the low 30s either which is where it bottomed earlier this year. so i am long-term investor here. i can see the bigger picture which is that there is a secular shift to higher quality food and this is going to be one of the winners. so i'm not particularly bothered by it. >> it is, i guess, a pretty good insight into what happens when you are a high multiple stock in the market like this. >> sure. yeah. >> you got to beat it. >> you have to knock it out of the park. >> you have to crush it. >> you have to kill it. >> look amazon went down 200 points because they couldn't watch what they pulled the prior quarter. that's the nature of these stocks. it's perfectly understandable when you get a big fat multiple people want more and more and
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more. they don't get it every quarter and if you're a real shareholder you would prefer to see the company give conservative guidance. they're going to do 2.5 to 3% same store sales this year which is perfectly fine. it may not make sense for the current mull m but people get it. i'll tell you one other thing. some of the disappointment among analysts and some of the price target cuts came as a result of what the company is saying on labor costs. they're talking about having an industry high give or take hike to wages for workers. danny meyer knows more than any of these people put together. he gets the fact this this is a service industry and if you have to pay them more than they make at mcdonald's or arby's it's going to make for a better customer experience and people are going to come back. i don't mind that that's a cost this year.
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it's smart business. >> josh, thanks, see you soon. >> do you own the stock. >> i do own the stock. i think it's a great company. it's a very highly valued stock. there's going to be a better price point. there's limited amount of stock. >> you got 10% better price point today. what are you waiting for? >> you have to wait some more. the growth is going to start getting out of the name. get lost in here. value guys will think it's too experience. >> coming up a win for billionaire investor as the sunsets on a solar deal. those details and what he told me earlier are just ahead. plus an unpopular call of the day. there's a lot of love on the desk for nordstrom but it's time to sell it. that battle is coming up next. ts your first week? long. it'll get better. i'm at the edward jones office, like sue suggested. thanks for doing this, dad. so i thought it might be time to talk about a financial strategy. (laughing) you mean pay him back? knowing your future is about more than just you. so let's start talking about your long-term goals...
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>> hello, here is your cnbc news update this hour. two people were killed and two more wounded in southern turkey after repeated rocket fire from across the syrian border. it was believed to be an attack from an area controlled by isis militants. the turkish military returned the fire. maryland's highest court ruled that william porter charged in the death of freddie grey must testify against his colleagues while he awaits retrial.
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porter's first trial ended in a hung jury in december. three of tennis star maria sharapova's top sponsors suspended ties after she admitted he failed a doping test. nike was sadden by the news. the deal will not be renewed and portia has chosen to postpone activitie activities. a long-term sponsor was surprised and will monitor developments. surveillance cameras were rolling when thieves made off with an entire atm machine from a fresno convenience store. it's not clear how much money was in the machine although damage to the store front was in the thousands of dollars. the suspects are still at large. that's the news update. scott back to you. >> thank you so much. we had breaking news earlier today. the planned sun edison deal with vivint solar is off. they accused sunedison of
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failing to consummate a deal. they were going to buy vivint roof top's solar portfolio. that's been a big, big point of concern for appaloosa management. it sued to try to prevent them from buying the assets. spoke with him earlier today and he told me the following, this is probably a very good thing for terraform. one has to wonder what is next in the saga. tepper criticized the corporate governance as relates to the deal. the stock has also lost a tremendous amount of value. there is a look at sun edison at $2. got the feeling that this is just not over quite yet but i suppose we shall see. 2 days, 2 very different calls on nordstrom. putting a sell on the stock today but if you remember just
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24 hours ago our own stephanie link was glowing on the name revealing that she bought it. >> this is a best in glass retailer and i like it because i like their concepts. they have the high end. they have off price. they have e-commerce and they own 20% of their real estate so they may be able to monetize that. >> all right. so stephanie loves it. stephanie bought it. you own it. >> we own it. we like it. to be totally candid we bought it at the end of last year. probably too early when the stock was in the 60s and 70s tnch. >> the call says they don deserve a premium multiple anymore. >> you can buy it online, off line, you can also get it at a discount. it's a very well run management team. all the stocks have been thrown out. macy's, nordstroms, they're down 30% off their peaks. people think the whole business is going out. they had bad comps, bad weather or good weather in that case so i think that if you have a longer term, look out, maybe six
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months to a year these stocks could come back. >> retail is about momentum and you waited all of 2015 for positive momentum to return and it finally has. why would you get out now? i agree with what he and stephanie said. 20% online transformation. they have done an excellent job. >> a difference between getting out now and buying it now. >> buy it. >> wrae. >> buy it. 100%. you finally have the momentum in the space. >> the premium valuation, it's trading 15, 16, 17 times at the high end. i don't agree with the call at all. i agree with stephanie yesterday. i have been in the name. i'm not in it right now but they have the trifecta of great things. they have the online and the discount portion as well as the flag ship. >> they say leverage is rising and cash is diminishing. >> no, they are managing expenses better than anyone else. they understand the environment. look at their margins over the last four years versus other department stores. yes they're contracting but they're doing a way better job. they're reducing capital
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spending. they're cutting back on expenses. >> so positive cash flow, growing dividend and then it's not a peak multiple. these are depressed earnings so you have to look at it the other way. if it was selling at ten times earnings at a peak multiple i agree. >> we say best in breed and they say we don't care about that. you don't give a market premium to the strength of the brand anymore. >> i don't think that's true. >> i'll tell you that's what they say. they say they wouldn't. >> i wish you were here. >> 42 target on this thing. >> where was he when the stock was 70? >> yeah. >> he was flying a united jet. coming up, a pull back in the green back. the dollar rally on hold ahead of the ecb meeting this week. and urban outfitters is surging today on strong earnings. is that turn around here or is the company still stuck in a teenage wasteland. at mfs investment management,
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coming up on power lunch, one reason investors are there. the dividend in commodity stocks rally recently but can you trust the runs right now. high yield by the way also rallying the hyg high yield of more than 5% in the last month. one bull will make his case for this space right now. all of that and more at the top of the hour on power. >> falling against other major currencies for the fifth straight day. jackie at the imexoon. the dollar was down a little bit. last time i checked my screen up slightly so a little bit of a sea saw ahead of the ecb meeting but want to talk to you about what traders are anticipating here. a big move for the dollar after this meeting? >> no, right now we're not expecting that. we expect the ecb to announce further interest rate cut. maybe 10 more basis points. put it into further negative territory but most of us feel
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that that is priced into the market right now. so unless they come up with a larger stimulus package something of a surprise we feel that dollar is going to be very rangebound. >> let's talk about levels here. what should we be watching? >> well, it has been an interesting couple of decades for the dollar and it's trading around it's midpoint from its all time high to low ove the last 20 years so the range really being rangebound here, 90 on the low side. 102 on the upside and right in between there $96. that midpoint is where you want to buy below that level and sell above it and wait for the bank decision. all bets can be off and the king dollar could become a new all time king making all time highs. watch that 103 level to the upside but trade around the 96 level you get good opportunities to buy and sell around that. >> for more on how the dollar will impact commodities head to the website. we have a live show today at 1:00 p.m. eastern time and we're also talking about the s&p with our technical master. you don't want to miss it,
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scott. >> we won't, jackie, thanks so much. time now for the trader blitz. first up auto nation downgraded steve to sell. >> yeah, look what's happening here in this whole sector is that you're seeing them sell all the cars coming off fleet. so off leasing and fleet so they're being sold pressuring used car prices. that's what goldman is focussing on. on the other side merrill upgraded their top buy recommendation just earlier in the week or last week. so the auto industry and auto nation down 6%. pete tell me about it. >> they crushed on the earnings number. and the real number everybody is looking at is direct to consumer. that was up double digits. that's what everybody was focussing on and there's a lot of strength. look at where that came from. i don't think you want to choose this one. i think you have to be patient. very very fickle world that
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we're talking about right here. online where they're starting to see that growth. >> you get sam add bams with a sell over at city. >> the opportunities as it relates to draft. volumes obviously not that strong for the name. this is a name that a year ago was 275. we're looking at 175 now and this isn't the only note. there have been many notes in the last month. i'd watch the stock over the next couple of days. this could be the moment where overwhelming negative sentiment bottoms the stock. keep your eye on it. >> qualcomm by 10%. >> we liked it all the way down where it's 40. 13 times earning. still a stock for the long time. >> coming up, the latest in the bottle for top trader. our rookie is making his first move in the halftime portfolio competition. his strategy next. ♪
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here at td ameritrade, they work hard. wow, that was random. random? no. it's all about understanding patterns. like the mail guy at 3:12pm every day or jerry getting dumped every third tuesday. jerry: every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement. there's no way to predict that. td ameritrade.
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we were talking about that downgrade of nordstrom. the analyst rick snyder to which he said where has he been since $70 a share. he responded rick snyder did tell people to sell the stock when it was at 70. he was just at another shop.
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so he is new at miller tabak but the call is not. >> makes sense. i still think it's -- >> they watch and they responded. >> we'll see who is right. >> okay. it's unusual activity time. beach brother john was so excited about john was so excited about what he found he called in from the rockies. doc, you are still on the slopes? >> no, actually judge made it back last night from aspen back to chicago. >> okay. >> in front of the machine here, and looking at some fit about it calls, f-i-t. the reason judge is that normal activity is 14,000. it has accelerated the last few days. we think because of a couple of conferences. yesterday it was the boich bank conference. >> i was reading yesterday about wild speculation about m and a. >> and there is rumors like this. but when you have something concrete like conferences like yesterday, again, boich yesterday. tomorrow they have a collin health care conference in boston.
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they are presenting about 10:30 in the morning, judge, at this one. it has already traded 23,000 calls today. i jumped in, bought the april 13 calls because of the unusual activity. most of it is in the very weekly calls that expire this week: but rather than buying those with such a limited time frame, judge, i decided to go out to april. so i bought the regular april 13 calls. i hope to hold them not only through the collin conference but if there is anything to this m and a, then hopefully we get a pop out of volatility. the calls are up 20% on the day with the stock not moving that fast to the upside. >> are you coming back to work any time soon, doc? >> i'll see you tomorrow. we'll be talking about this one tomorrow. >> your brother says you don't work anymore. >> half retired. long weekend. >> see you tomorrow. a comment on fit bit, bying options on unusual activity is
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one thing. buying it because fundamentalsly you believe it is a good place to be, those that's another. if you are in the stock, no. >> i'm not into the stock. >> i'm not saying for the trade. >> but this is not one of these crazy names where you are look agent valuation, holy smokes, this is some up in the clouds. s that company that's a real company that has a relatively reasonable sort of evaluation level. so it's not something that's completely ridiculous like sometimes we see. >> okay. i have a news alert if citigroup. dom chu has the details. >> all right, scott, what we are watching here is citigroup shares taking a leg lower after comments from the cfo at the rbc financial institutions conference in new york staking place right now. according to wire headlines from righters and bloomberg they are citing weak innocence their investment banking business. overale citigroup says that shares -- again, the company is now seeing equity and fixed income markets in the first quarter revenue headed down by about 15% from the same time a
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year earlier. they also see investment banking revenues down 20 percent year on year. in february, around the 3rd or so, j.p. morgan made similar comments. again, citigroup the latest big bank with diversified securities operations to come out and say that the quarter is chap shaping up weaker than it did last year. in this case here, citigroup basically saying the investment banking business at least going to be lower than last year. >> thanks for bringing that to us. city shares sell off. steve wise you own it. >> i do. >> this is a lot of time talking about the commodity comeback. the banks have done well since the jamie dollar volume. >> they have. citi group i was looking to get out around 50. now it's going to take longer. that shouldn't surprise anybody. because the other banks have
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said it. we read about layoffs. from merrill, we read about bonuses being down. >> it's not a matter of that. isn't it a matter of whether you should own these anyway right now? >> i think you should. we are close to a steepening of the yield curve. making money on the loan books, on the balances. >> i laugh at the steepening of the yield curve. so it's going to go from here to here. >> it's going to angle. >> it's steepening. >> that's true. >> you take what you can debt. >> coming up, halftime portfolio. steve wise weighs in with what the so-called smart money is investing in right now. back after this. sales event is on.
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and the powerful rc coupe. ♪ this is the pursuit of perfection. trolling for a gig with can't blame you. it's a drone you control with your brain, which controls your thumbs, which control this joystick. no, i'm actually over at the ge booth. we're creating the operating system for industry. it's called predix. it's gonna change the way the world works. ok, i'm telling my brain to tell the drone to get you a copy of my resume. umm, maybe keep your hands on the controller. look out!! ohhhhhhhhhh... you know what, i'm just gonna email it to you. yeah that's probably safer. ok, cool. serena williams. hi watson. you are a fierce competitor. i've heard that. i have analysed your biggest matches.
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oh really? when down a point, you serve an ace 5.8 times more than other top players. you sound like a coach. i am not. but i can customize training programs based on biomarker data. watson, that's pretty impressive. you might say i am the serena williams of cloud-based cognitive systems. nah, i wouldn't go that far. it is a higgs forric day in our halftime portfolio competition. er is at is making his first trade. where are you? there you are. you are up two and a half percent on the year. what is happening. >> i'm swapping. i'm getting out of burt warner.
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i like it long term. but i think if you are going to buy something that has a catalyst, really cheap, ten times earn earnings, 12% a year. harman industries. harman is in your car. jbl, infinity. >> right shoo they are getting more and more into the luxury and smaller cars. >> cramer has urnged apple to go out and buy. >> they are the leaders. wireless in your car. even if you think auto sales are plateauing they are garnering more and more of a share in your car. >> it's interesting. you are swapping for a stock that has done nearly the exact same thing, both over a one month arc year to date, and a one-year period. over one year, warner and harman are down 40%. over the last month, harman up 16. borg up 17. >> so the auto suppliers have compressed multiples from over 15 to close to 1r 1. this is what happens when you get basically a recession
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potentially built in. my view on this is even if cars pla toe this company is going to grow. i like borg but i think harman is going to do better. >> remember you can follow all the action at all right. steve wise has his ears to the ground when it comes to the hedge fund world, is here with the smart trade or the big hedge as woe like to call it. what do you have to say n less than a minute. >> here's the most important thing. >> steve, is not josh. >> takes about three seconds. >> here's the most important thing. two thirds of all equity exposure is now in the u.s. that's the highest its abeen from hedge funds since '07 with the exception of a brief period in 2012. so there are risk ds -- joe and i were talking about there are risks to the brexit, what the ecb says and risks to china. they find the u.s. market the best market. >> ecb goes deeper negative on thursday. adds to the bond buying purchases. what happens to european equities with that? >> i think banks have to go down. we saw that commercial.
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and i think money goes in the u.s. and you will see something go into the cyclicals in europe. >> okay. stocks are going for six days in a row up. got some work to do today. the nasdaq, s&p, and the dow are all in negative territory. not by all that much. but that's where "power lunch" picks up the story right now. welcome to "power lunch." i'm michelle caruso-cabrera. tie tie, melissa lee, brian sullivan, we are all here. so is volatility. it's back today. well off the lows of the day. dow jones 17038. s&p at 1989, had fallen to as low as 1978 which i guarantee you was a bad year. wti lower by 36 cents per barrel. we start with t


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