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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  March 9, 2016 5:00pm-6:01pm EST

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"fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square i'm melissa lee. our traders are tim seymour, peter najarian, dan nathan and guy adami. tonight on "fast" a flashing sell signal in the market. one sector that could be setting up for the perfect short opportunity. we'll tell you what it is, plus square higher on its first earnings report since going public. we'll hear from ceo jack do,,y with the latest headlines from the conference call which is just kicking off right now and later a sobering call on the
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economy. analysts saying we're already in the midst of recession and why it could get much worse. first we start off with the markets. stocks ending slightly higher on the official anniversary of the seven-year bull run but with the ecb on deck tomorrow, the fed meeting just one week away from today, is the fate of the bull in the hands of the central banks? pete najarian, what do you say? >> i would say the markets are completely dependant on oil just like jeff gundlach said yesterday. the central banks say they adjust and i think we'll be adjusting along the way. when you look at price of oil, what really led the s&p? whether you look at the dow, it didn't do much and the s&p was up ten points, and why? energy absolutely underneath this market. f-chevron, go through the list, the refiners, what's pushing this market right now. i think jeff is right and oil is still in command of the market. >> 5% move on wti is half a percent move on the s&p 500 and you say oil is driving this market? >> well, yeah. look what's going on at least in theesing up of credit concerns.
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in a place here where this move in oil is now no longer a one-day move and oh, wow, sure, oil is going to rally but it's a sawtooth kind of a move and actually going to go significantly lower. if you look at the charts on oil they have now i think started to change at least their character. oil is now not only above the 50, above the 200 and you're seeing an upward sloping 50-day moving average and the longer an medium term level of oil is starting to change. ultimately it's all about central banks continuing to provide something that the markets need, but to people that think that suddenly it's going to change overnight, central banks are telling you we are not stepping away from the car any time soon, so, i mean, the risk is going into the fed. oil is 37% higher from their last meeting, and, yes, they are worried about that, but for people that think that suddenly the fed is going to step all over this market i think it's proven that they won't. >> i think central banks do matter. i agree. central banks are absolutely the story and central bank missteps continue to pain themselves into a smaller and smaller corn their
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requires them to be more nimble and nimble, and i think at a certain point they are going to take a misstep. i don't know if it's draghi or bank of japan or if it's here or what happens in general, but i do think there will be a misstep along the way that will cause a bit of correction in the s&p. 2025 is still my level on the upside. we'll talk about transports in a minute but ovx is still something you've got to look at. seems to have held 50. i know oil bounced today, but until that ovx breaks 50 on the downside, oil still goes lower. >> there's not as much stimulus as telegraphed to the market, for instance, like the ecb tomorrow and earlier than the expected rate cut. >> i have a slightly different view. >> the way i see it, monetary policy has run its course and you can take about what the three central banks are going to do, not going to mean a whole heck of a lot and what the world needs is a fiscal stimulus and the world is not capable, especially when you have industrial commodities.
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i think that's indisputable, and if you want to bring it back to the u.s. stock market, okay, well, q1 earnings, supposed to be down 7%, 8% year over year. if oil goes up for all the wrong reasons and stays higher, then it becomes a really big head wind where u.s. corporations that are actually having a very tough time. >> what are the wrong movements for oil? >> i think for some of the reasons -- listen, no doubt about it. like, obviously it overshot on the downside because it's up 45% in the last month. >> is it up? >> that's refreshing to hear. a lot of people are saying oil is going to 20 bucks. >> it could, tim. obviously if you look a month on, up 45%, it overshot on the downside because it was a coiled spring on the upside. at some point it's going to find some resistance. to me if all of the conditions that were in place that sent it down to 26 in january or early february. >> what are they? >> start to perk up again. we know what they are. the companies are massively burdened with debt.
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you talk about monetary policy and the fed raises and that's what started all of this. it makes it that much harder for these guys to serve advice their dollar-denominated debt. >> which caps? >> no shortage of them, petrobras. >> are they going to take down the global economy? what are we talking about here? people are talking about credit concerns in the energy spaces a-ins we're talking about mortgage-backed securities in 2008. they are not even close. >> what about china, tim? >> what about it? what are you telling me china is going to do? >> because of credit concerns it will impact the price of oil because we still have to work through the bankruptcies and take oil production offline. >> i think there was a deese enconsensus that there was going to be no shortage of defull in bankruptcies in the oil space. have a little bit of a reprieve with the move in oil over the last month. >> a lot of people have. >> if for any reason we see oil back with a two handle on it, 29.99 for all i care you'll have the same concerns that sent risk assets lower in january and
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february. >> first of all, i don't mean to be glib but oil at 48 before we see it at 28, first thing. >> that's a good prediction. >> and the second point is oil goes to 28. does that mean china blows up? i mean, again, what are we saying here? >> what causes oil to get to 28? you believe that oil is a key to the market. >> i do. >> what keeps you up in terms of what sends oil lower? >> i look at it right now. is it still short covering or not? we all know how currencies and commodities trade and currencies and commodities trade in huge volatile trades. >> and they overshoot. >> and guy was just talking about the ovx. heck, a month ago it was 82 hand here we are barely holing on to 50. it's absolutely incredible and why is that moving? have the fundamentals really change that had much for oil, i don't think so. a lot of short covering and a lot of that has spurred the move to the upside. not saying we go down to 28 but i wouldn't be surprise federal we find a new range that becomes 35 to 45 or something like that. >> we have to get to the aforementioned ari wald.
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in terms of what you did today, is there positioning ahead of the ecb news? >> yes. >> okay. >> if you're a trader look at what happened over the last three weeks, you don't say things are going higher, things like the australian dollar, why would i be talking about that now because that to me is way overbougt and it means mining shares and emerging markets. a lot of things, the fundamentals have changed but they haven't changed so dramatically that they are going straight higher. yes, you take profits in the most overbought stuff. >> this side of the market? >> i think the market is sold now to the downside and you've seen this all over the globe. we've sold off here and new want to be back into something for a trade. the tlt with a long entry. >> i think you sell it and focus on the iwms for the reasons i mentioned before. >> i think you can be long energy and protect yourself because as we watch the volatility -- >> i'm in the xlp an started to move more and more into the
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energy names and i'm holding on to crutch because that's my crutch. >> s&p rally fell from its low on february 11th. time to take profits? our next guest thinks so and he has one chart that could be the biggest short. let's go off to ari wald of oppenheimer. >> let's start, first, with the s&p 500 and see what we have here, and we can see the very sharp rise off the february low. we've now retraced a very key retracement of the losses since the fourth quarter at around the 2000 level, along with retracing that number, we're also approaching that falling 200-day moving average. the trend is down and we're getting back down to trend. this looks like an opportunity to take profits to us. now, if you're looking for shorting ideas, we think you want to help improve your odds of success. short stocks likes the s&p 500 have rallied back to resistance and have a weaker structure. what do i mean by weaker
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structure? look for names that are below the october 2014 low. the s&p was able to hold that level. stocks at or below there i think are set up as much more attractive short transports in area. here, we have the rally into the falling 200-day moving average. here is a much bigger breakdown in transports, well below where they were in october 2014, much bigger topping process, a bounce and a downtrend and sell it right there. how about a name in particular. and one of our favorite shorts is actually rail company kansas city southern. here again, the big bounce, been an outperformer over the past few weeks but now it's coming into a lot of overhead resistance. again, the falling 200-day moving average, the big three-year top, you know, a lot of traders looking to break even, that tried to buy at the prior support levels. we think you short it right here for a protective stop. put it right at the recent high of $88. you close above there. you're at it and from a risk
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reward this looks like a great short idea for us. >> ari thank you. ari wald of oppenheimer. doesn't like the transports, in particular sell kansas city southern. >> mavis double tops around 120. from the end of 2014, end of 2015, since that time you've had a series of lower lows and lower highs. we're right up against one of those now. to me, to ari's point, 85 bucks. i mean, if you want to play things from a short side and understanding that it's difficult, but against 85 on the long side the risk owe reward sets up pretty well especially since the iyt is moving up against the trend line. >> i agree with the iyt. to me these guys set up under a lot of the criteria that ari just mentioned they are below for the most part their 2014 october lows and they are still in massive trends have had big bounces. ones i look to put out. >> like risk reversal. >> i mean, this is fun.
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>> they should do a show about those things. >> when you talk about options strategy and stuff, kick it around. do you have a show like that? >> yes, you do. the one concern i would have talk about shorting some of the rail names specifically, what sector have we heard more and more talk of consolidation in in the rails. one thing to keep in mind right now because you start shorting these things and you know canadian pacific has been active. we know the names they have already attacked. is that over with? nothing has actually happened but still a story for sure that's out there. >> i would be worried about the rails more than the automotive business. that part of the shipping chain has really weakened up. there are very, very good trends. look at january and february volumes for a lot of these things. people are saying the transports are dead bus the fundamentals are dead and are not seeing a year over year return. a lot of these comps are very, very easy and wouldn't run too far away. 85 i get it but i would be buying that next dip. >> up next, thinning and smoking
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hot returns. sounds too good to be true, it isn't and the some. hottest returns from the casinos and cigarette stocks. is it too late to buy. plus, square out with its first earnings release since going public and the stock is rallying. we'll hear from ceo jack dorsey on the quarter and the competition and the next four stocks that look like they are gearing up for their very oven seven-year bull run. the names that are set to sore when "fast money" returns. maas to boston when i was two. there was 14 of us in a four bedroom apartment. to be the first kid to buy a house... ...it's a very proud moment. whatever home means to you, we'll help you find it. zillow.
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welcome back to testify money. investors are having a bit of a lethal attraction to vice stocks and that kicks off our top trade. wells fargo named philip morris its top pick saying it's redefining the smoking experience. the stock is up 9% this year and joined by pierce altria and look at the casino stocks, wynn resort up 18% and las vegas sands up 14%. should you buy into the vice stocks, guy? >> we've talked about wynn resorts. i thought it would get up around 100 bucks, faltered around 82. i think room to the upside will surprise people. in terms of the devices i don't like, because i dig gambling. >> do you dig gambling? >> but i don't smoke, never have, never will. philip morris talks about it,
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386 talks about it all the time, but you're now getting to levels that you last saw three or four years ago. i would be scared you're bouncing up against a double top. in terms of tobacco names this might be a little late. wynn yes, tobacco no and i'll throw one more way in terms of vice. we've talked smith & wesson for a long time. >> don't bring that up. >> why? >> it's going to upset some people. >> but in terms of philip morris, specifically in the analyst note they spoke of a new smoking platform which is not even factored into the model. >> i think they are so internationally exposed they have dollar exposure and because of that i'd rather be in reynolds quite frankly. >> good ole american smoking. >> reynolds does. >> why would you go to altria and not philip morris. >>? >> i would stick with reynolds because they made the acquisition of lorillard.
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>> i only reynolds and altria to me very diversive. they have a lot of financial investments, things that have paid off for them so that's what you want to look at. these guys have reinvented themselves overnight. >> let's get to the move of the day. biotech getting whacked. check out the shares of edf, down 1% and could be heading even lower according to mr. dan. >> look, it's down about 35% from the all-time highs made last year. it was down 40%. that was the max last february, but the thing is, the balance, at one point it was outperforming the s&p and outperformed on the downside so it just kind of gave it all up and when i look at the top five holdings, they make up about 45%, am again, regeneron, they all look horrible and from a technical standpoint there's no
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bid or relative outperformance so here's one. i know these guys probably like individual names. celgene is probably the one that has the best expected growth verse us its multiple, you know, and so to me that is the one that you want to pick one and start legging into it and it's really important to note for the broad market that this was a group very important last year because of all the m & a and a lot of activity going on in general and it's not participating this year so to me it troubles me a little bit. >> go ahead. >> there's a political overhang. >> 1100%. >> should we still concern? investing into individual names. should we be concerned how it impaction the movement? >> listen, i love celgene and the whole space and said this condition and this climate, they are unownable right now because any bit of rhetoric will knock it down. back in the fall, ivb is going to 280, guess what, went to 220 and stopped on a dime and rallied back to 340. we've now said once support becomes resistant we've not been able to recapture 280.
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i don't think you buy it until it flushes on the downside. what you haven't seen is in order recaptures 280. >> what about in terms of overall health care, the second worst performing sector on the s&p this year. >> all of the presidential elections, and started with hillary's tweets and even then both sides of the aisle have come at and attacked the whole health insurance industry. the best in the business, favorite name is nyeser. why is this unmolding? nobody knows how this is going to unfold. >> i'm in the big-cap naturalas right now and obviously the consolidation factor, trying to buy some of the names when we saw them and the problem is i don't think we'll see the m & a trades. >> health care is a very prouded space. the markets have had an ridiculous run so stay out of the ibb.
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>> square's conference call under way and we'll hear from ceo jack dorsey on the conference call. meantime, here's what else is coming up on "fast." >> feeling the seven-year rich? >> the bull markets might be coming to an end, but we've got the next four stops gearing up for their very own bull run, and we'll tell you the names. plus -- >> i'm going to make him an answer he can't refuse. >> well, don, from one good foreto another and i hope it's insightful because one member on wall street said we're already in the midst of a restriction. much more "fast money" still ahead.
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welcome back to "fast money." we've got a news alert on volkswagen. phil lebeau joins us on the "fast" line. >> reporter: the ceo of volkswagen of america and has been issuing apologies for the last year about the emissions scandal is now leaving the company by mutual agreement between himself and volkswagen. he's stepping down as ceo of volkswagen of america. he's being replaced by a longtime veteran henrik wolf ge
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en who is now in charge of volkswagen of america. i spoke about the leadership of volk wassen and the departure of michael horn and the exact quote was this is like rearranging chairs on the deck of the "titanic." the ship is taking on water. doesn't matter who the captain is in charge. so that gives you some sense about at least one vw dealer feels about the departure of michael horn who, again, is leaving volkswagen of america. he's been the ceo for a couple of years now an has been the face of the company as they continue to apologize by i guess have not fixed almost 600,000, not in compliance with the regulation. >> when all scandal happened, you thought heads had to roll? does this help volkswagen move closer to closing this chanter?
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>> i don't think so. the date you're looking for is coming up, march 25 "24"th. that's when they have to tell a judge how they plan to fix those 600,000 vehicles. >> phil, thanks for phoning in. phil lebeau with the developing story on volkswagen. what does it do for the landscape of the industry here? >> i think it's a really interesting time. auto is one of the biggest moves, industrial names and key levels on ford. the difference here is these cops have very cute valuations. the fundamental business, auto shipments minus 8%, seen the auto loans newspaper. none looks terribly good, not extensionive companies and have good dividends. >> i lost yields and gm checked in the other day, a few options buyers in there. if it holds on to 30, i think it goes to 32 so i'm looking at it right now. love the yield and valuations are ridiculous. >> i think they both trade at six times earnings for a reason. something is going on. still down 20% and we know that the monthly sales have been great and a lot has to do with
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the fact that they have been picking up a lot over volkswagen the last two months but to me you see them back at the lows from january probably before the market -- >> i'm shocked to hear you say that. i can't argue with that. all have trade d. >> like how? >> amazing going into building. >> can we squeeze tesla in? >> huh? >> i don't even know. >> why? >> it's a huge statement on where he thinks this whole thing is going. >> i mean, you've got -- >> something more -- >> i don't know. >> it wasn't my quote. >> don't yell. >> i know. it's not my quote either. >> just saying. >> and it's not phil lebeau's either. can we squeeze tesla in, up over
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3.8% over the last month. >> how oil has been tradeing? >> petization it all the time. i don't think it's coincidental, but i will say this. i don't think now you chase the 225. that's been the key level pivot. if it gets there you fade. >> up next, happy anniversary, seven-year bull market. what about the stocks getting ready breaking to new highs? names in the bright spot and why one trader is betting on even more gains ahead. much more f-fun up next.
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welcome back to "fast money." the dow ending the day in the green and the s&p and nasdaq closing higher. the best performing sector of the day is oil that jumped nearly 5%. in the second half of f-fun, shares of vox getting crushed since their first day of trade a year ago and shares soaring after hours. is this the beginning of a frowned? plus, one of the most influential minds on wall street is here to tell us why he thinks
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we're in a recession right now and why thing could be -- could get a lot worse very soon. that's later hon in the show. first, in celebration of the official anniversary of the bull market we thought we'd take a look at some of the stocks that led an lagged on the way up. breaking it down is a man who has been celebrating all day, sneaks's dom chu. hey, dom. >> celebration, well, i guess i'm more an an sent rate the. there's been a huge trend since 3090. a huge part of the trades from you lock at the company during the shun have been preponderance ploing you look at underarmor. apparel winner mock and we're up closer to 15% and you have a stock like regeneron
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pharmaceuticals, up 3,000 property and general growth properties, the mall operator, the mall proner, that real estate investment trust. "moulin rouge"ly beat enup in the crisis and those are at 10% aren't among the current s&p 500 members, as for the lag yard line in surprise i guess, it's will the palincks, those stocks have at all ben by two-thirds or $1/4 of their value and how much they are down during that time span as well. leaders and lag yards, i guess it all depends, at least for the celebration, about what you were long and what you were short during this period of type. we know the overhaul market was up but some stocks have really lagged behind. back over to you guys. >> thanks so much, dom. dom had a bottle of champagne. >> is he by himself?
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>> he's in the newsroom right now. >> i hope he stairs with us. >> let's -- in terms of some of the liters of the bull mark, constructioner deschristian knee and i reept to romy a high growth high investment period like we've never seen before and you would throw in the storics and nikes and nenching in the other time, actually how that other group of stocks is underperforming right now which is kind of interesting. home depot traded down today and those are worth keeping an eye on. under armour, a high valuation name, much higher double the valuation than nike and they have actually had blips on the earnings front. >> right. >> the last year, i think you really have to keep an eye on those sports of things at this stage of the bull market.
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>> if you think the economy is getting better, then this has had a huge trip but look at where it is right now. 30 something fet so if you think the -- >> we'll ask these guys which stocks they think could enter their own bull market. tim, what do you say? >> i don't want to pick the ones that have already peaked. i'll look at stocks that have done poorly and that's emerging market stocks. south africa is up 27% and peru up 36%. i'm going for malaysia, the ewm which is i realize is far afield for many people but, again, you're buying an etf, not a stock, so you're buying an entire country which is down 55%, and a lot of this is tied to the china story, the devall fears, a lot of political concerns and a lot of trades are amid the trades that are working now. would already buy something with an enormous bad cycle
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disappointed in. >> i'm a little disappointed we -- strangely placed right on that roles -- i'm going with the minnesota poll. frank -- i am. particular name. the reason why. i think management is doing an unbelievable great job, a great job not just to repurchase but when you look at the yields and the reason it's as high as it is, every single year they continue to grow that yield so i lover what they are doing, dividend and shareholder friendly and they just grabbed someone from amazon to take care of the logistics. i think that's huge going forward. someone that can actually manage supply and logistics. obviously 16 years at amazon, that's going to be huge for target. >> dan? >> yeah. i'll look at hewlett-packard enterprises. we know it just spun out and looking for parts here. meg whitman is running this one here. they just reported last week. it's actually okay and the
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guidance was in line and they will buy back a lot of stock. they will use a lot of free cash flow to do it. i'm not so sure i love that that much but it's a cheap stock and they are doing things well and what miss whit man said is now they are a lot more nimble. if they can ever get some organic growth going, do a little m & a here i think this thing could be up 20% fairly'sly over the next six months to a year so this one i don't think the expectations are very high and i don't think you have a ton of downside. still get it and fill in the gap over the next couple of weeks is 14, 15 bucks. >> guy? >> medical supply. talked about how you got to stay away and talking about the next bull run, right? >> lock at what -- you know, i was the pick ador. >> what's that? >> that's the guy that puts the fears into the back of the bull's neck to make that go down. >> i don't believe that at all.
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>> you do that in college. >> for an internship. >> mckesson is my stock. i mean this, stock had a huge run into 2015 and then like the rest of the space it got crushed, almost cut in half, but this is one of the great technology companies also in san francisco that a lot of people were talking about a year and a half ago. nobody talks about now. fair valuation. i think there's a lot -- i think all the bad news now has been priced in, so if you're look for the next bull run it goes mck. >> speaking of technology on san francisco, an earnings alert on mobile payment service square jumping on its first ever earnings report as a public company. moments ago cnbc's kayla tausche spoke to the ceo and joins us now live. >> reporter: the stocks are well off its highs after hours and the company posted a widower loss than expected because of a charge it took in relation to its ipo and the revenue beat estimates for the quarter and
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the net revenue is up 49% growth payment volume which is how much payments the company transacted, up 47% and the revenues for the software and data division were up 272% over last year. on the conference call following the earnings which is ongoing right now, cfo sara fire apt beauted much of that growth to caviar which is its food delivery business and capital which, of course, is its merchant lending platform and i think the guidance is what really is driving investor sentiment here. the company said it would actually be profitable this year with adjusted revenues coming in up to $620 million. i think that's one reason why perhaps there was a bit of a short covering rally in the market. the stock was up 4% even before the earnings actually hit the wires and the stock itself is up about 40% since its lows or maybe even more than that off its lows from just a couple months ago, so i asked jack dorsey why people are betting against square and more broadly
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against him as a ceo. >> i think there's a lot happening in the market that is complicated. i think we need to constantly show that we're focused on the right things and focused on bidding great things for sellers and they devalue them and we continue to see that growth and i think we're not only a first mover in a lot of areas and innovator in a lot of areas but also we have the best experience and -- and we -- we certainly compete with a lot, but what we find is that our competitors are only going after one part of the equation whereas we're looking at a cohesive end-to-end of what a seller truly needs, and that is really unique, so i think there's still a misunderstanding of everything that we do and why, and as we continue to be able to tell our story, this is our first earnings call and our first shareholder's letter, first time we really get to get
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out there and talk about how great our business is and why we're excited about it and how sellers see it. that's -- you know, we'll build that confidence so i'm not worried about that. >> so because he is here at square, it's square's first messaging and his message is on square and we asked him about spreading too soon and being ceo of two companies. he was focused very clearly on what square is doing because of how big today is for the company. though, melissa, we have to say with a report like this there's some pressure taken off of dorsey at least in terms of the narrative that he's running two companies that both have pay lot of growth to do and one is not even profitable and they both have their own issue, at least for square. there seems to be some issues that have been cleared up today. >> okay. well, that's fair that dorsey, i mean, being with square's earnings report out want to convey that notion that he's focused on the task at hand in
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this moment. at the same time, his acknowledgement that there's a communication problem, that falls squarely on his shoulders, doesn't it? i mean, they have been a public company for how long now, and he still has to worry about the messaging about, what the company does and that investors have to figure it out. i mean, that seems a little bit late here. >> reporter: melissa, are you asking me or the traders. >> i'm asking you, sorry, kayla. >> reporter: that's okay. no, i think that the company has, of course, been in a quiet period leading up to earnings. there's been, you know, a lot of issues with wall street analysts coming out with their research reports. i mean, i think the company's readers are in the apple store and transitioning to emz so i think there's a lot of parallel stories ongoing, run a food company and lending business and run a hardware company and a data company. i think there are a lot of parallel story lines that they are having to get sorted out and they are trying to do that today
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with investors. >> kayla, thank you. kayla tauschy with her exclusive interview with ceo jack-doers, and, of course, we can't omit twitter from the equation down 62%, 63% over the past three months. >> we were talking before the show because, again, i have a position at twitter, and, you know, we all follow the story. it's just shocking to me that a guy could be ceo of two publicly list the companies and clearly a guy, if anyone is capable, i want to grow up and be jack-doers. clearly it's a great gig and let's focus on square. ultimately you have a case where i don't think there's a lot of differentiation between them and the competition and the valuation is unsustainable. i think the stock is neutral after running 45%. i don't think you sell this company and short. >> to me it's short covering. short covering into the number and short covering now because the number was a little bit bert and look at revenue number and some of the guidance and when you look at the competition out there whether it's papal or apple pays, holy smokes, the competition is unbelievable. i don't know how they are going
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to be able to win and get market share like they need to. >> coming up, much more in the developing story on valeant. news breaksing moments ago that could have a major impact on the stock tomorrow. we'll bring you the headlines next and asher edelman, one of the wall streets of wall street and one of the bull's mandate for the fed, plus who he thinks is the best candidate for the economy. that and much more "fast" still ahead. smart devices are up. cloud is up. analytics is up. seems like everything is up except your budget. introducing comcast business enterprise solutions. with a different kind of network that delivers the bandwidth you need without the high cost. because you can't build the business of tomorrow on the network of yesterday. because you can't build the business of tomorrow can a a subconscious. mind? a knack for predicting the future. reflexes faster than the speed of thought.
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can a business have a spirit? can a business have a soul? can a business be...alive?
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us tells us you're not in a recession. what are they missing? >> i think it's pretty straightforward. the average american. >> we're not in' recession but 80% of the americans have been in a recession for at least 15 years. >> how does that translate into investing into the stock market. is it that -- is it a recession that nobody -- seems like nobody realizes we are in one and certainly nobody realizes we've
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been in one for 15 years. >> who is your nobody? >> i think the broader investing public. if you polled anybody on this desk right here -- >> sounds like you're talking more about financial oppression than you are economic decline. i get the fact a lot of people aren't doing as well because structural society isn't rewarding them maybe where they should. >> that's a social issue. i'm talking about money and economics. people can buy less for what they have now than they could 15 years ago and in their lives that's a recession. >> okay. how about the broader economy. how about the labor market that continues to tighten in the united states and in japan and in europe and i know that's a backward leading indicator and there's a job market that says the service sector is more than making up for manufacturing and commodity. >> and you are aware that we have fewer people as a percentage of the population played today than we did in 2007. >> yes. >> does that make the labor market worse? >> yes, it is.
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>> and then if you take into account the people who are working in mcdonald's who used to run a computer for somebody else it's even worse than that. >> let's say you're back on wall street today, how would you express those views in investing or in any other way when it comes to money and investing? >> my view is always very straightforward. if you can buy control of a company or close to a control of the company where the hard assets are worth two times the stock price you can then work out something to do from there. that's what i would be sglog are there sectors you look out at right now saying if i were still in the game these are -- this is an area that i would go after. >> yeah, i look at some distress mainly in europe, but i look at distress. >> in europe? >> yeah. >> let's move on to the presidential elections. we're asking everybody essentially who you think the best candidate for the economy would be. >> bernie sanders. >> without a doubt? >> no question. >> i think it's quite simple. if you look at something called velocity of money, you guys know what that is, i presume.
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that means how much gets spent and turned around. when you have the top 1% getting money, they spend 5%, 10% of what they earn. when you have the lower end of the economy getting money, they spend 100% or 110% of what they earn. as you've had a transfer of wealth to the top and a transfer of income to the top, you have a shrinking consumer base basically and you have a shrinking velocity of money. bernie is the only person out there talking at all about both fiscal stimulation and banking rules that will get the banks to begin to generate lending again as opposed to speculation. >> okay. >> so from an economic point of view it's straightforward. >> we'll leave it there. thanks for coming by, great to see you. asher eddelman. >> the man is passionate about what he says. i don't agree with most of the things that he says but at least i'll tell you he's as earnest as can be and is passionate.
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i'm not wall street would agree with asher but maybe a lot of folks at home. >> sad news on wall street. seema mody has that story back at headquarters. >> that's right. one of the most powerful men on wall street has died. the well respected bond trader spent 38 years at solomon brothers and stepped down as ceo in 19919. he was featured prominently in the poker book. gutfreund was 86.
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shares of first solar earned more than 2% and some traders are betting the stock could hit new highs. dan is over at the smart board with all the action. dan in. >> options volume was hot today and the stock was trading pretty well. calls were four times that of puts and today when the stock was trading at 58 bucks there was a buyer 5,000 of the april 75 calls paying $1.90 to open. they open at 76.10, up 13%. when you come over to the chart here, you know, you look at what's going on, that was the believes high. the break-even is above it. this is the one--year chart and this trader is playing for a new breakout and i want to break it out a lot longer and when you look at the five-year chart you
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see that it's budding up against some serious technical resistance so here's a stock trading with oil and the higher oil goes the higher you would expect the solar stock like this. very important to remember though. these guys don't lose money, they make money and sales are expected to be up 20% so if you think oil is going to continue to go higher, a stock like this can continue to go higher. i suspect buying out-of-the-money calls is levering up an existing long position. >> thanks so much. for "options action" check out the full show at 5:30 pm on friday. coming up next, the final trade. i'm here at the td ameritrade trader offices. steve, other than making me move stuff, what are you working on? let me show you. okay. our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place and lets you visualize that information for any options series. okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. impressive... what's up, tim.
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for the future you've always wanted. [so i use quickbooks and run mye entire business from the cloud. i keep an eye on sales and expenses from anywhere. even down here in the dark i can still see we're having a great month. and celebrate accordingly. i run on quickbooks.that's how i own it.
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time for the final trade. around the horn we go. >> tim? >> markets could pull back a bit. iwm short is a good way to play? >> petey? >> i'm going right there with reynolds american, giddy-up. >> dan in. >> qualcomm, one i'm looking at on the short side. probably like it in the mid-40s, do not like it in the low 50s. i think you short it back to 45. >> guy? >> asher, man, coming at us with 15-year recession. >> feel the bern? >> pardon me. >> feel the bern. that's from some movie.
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>> yeah. >> anyway. >> "talladega nights." >> turn and burn, baby. >> coca-cola! >> 52-week high. >> interesting. i'm melissa lee. thanks so much for watching. see you back here again tomorrow at 5:00. more my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. people want to make friends, i'm just trying to make you some money. my job is not just to entertain you but to educate and teach so call me or tweet me @jimcramer. seven years ago, this market hit rock bottom. and then it caught fire. if you've been glued to your television, you might have caught it.

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