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tv   Worldwide Exchange  CNBC  March 10, 2016 5:00am-6:01am EST

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good morning. it's decision day at the ecb. will the central bank announce more stimulus? the global markets in wait-and-see mode. square's revenue beat the street. shares rising on the news. but investors still want to know if ceo jack dorsey can really run two companies at the same time. and the race for the white house. sparks fly between hillary clinton and bernie sanders as focus turns towards florida and ohio. it's thursday, march 10th, 2016. "worldwide exchange" begins right now.
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good morning and welcome to "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. i'm sara eisen. >> and i'm wilfred frost. let's get straight to u.s. equity futures this morning. slight gains yesterday. today we are looking at a little bit of green on the screen. really not very much to talk of. ultimately we are flat in the premarket session. the dow called to open up by 9.5 points. a quick look at the yield on the u.s. ten-year treasury as well. of course that's been an important risk gauge. 1.862, as you can see. just in the end of february, start of march, that yield has been ticking up. a little bit of bond selling, a little bit of risk-on sentiment. >> central banks on center stage today. the ecb meeting in frankfurt. policy decision expected around 7:45 a.m. eastern time. president mario draghi will hold a news conference about 45 minutes later. the ecb is widely expected to roll out more stimulus. let's show you the euro ahead of the decision. under some pressure. not a whole lot though.
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it is below 1.10. we'll keep an eye on it. it could change. if it weakens considerably, that could be a sign he gave the markets what they wanted, potentially even more. european equities as well. sort of little changed ahead of the decision. a little bit lower but not a lot to speak of. the expectation, wilfred, a rate cut into negative territory, an expansion of the quantitative easing program, and potentially also pushing out the date of how long the qe program is going to last. anything else you're hearing? >> i think the key one with this comes down to whether they increase the size of the purchases. currently 60 billion a month, could be 70 million. i think more than a 5 or 10 billion increase raises a further question. does he have to change what bonds he is buying? because there aren't really enough of the traditional assets. very complicated.
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either way, let's go back to that 30-day euro chart we had. yes, people expecting more easing. yes, the euro has weakened on most time frames. the last ten days or so, we've seen it bounce. it's a 30-day chart. we have it coming up for you in a second. it has weakened, but it's just bounced back a little bit. the last ten days or so. so we're expecting easing but perhaps there's a little uncertainty as to whether we get a disappointing mario draghi as we did in december or whether we get super mario, whatever it takes, let's blow this thing out of the water. >> in december, investors got burned. they were disappointed because the size of the qe did not expand. that's why most economists are looking for a 10 billion euro expansion in the amount of qe. draghi got the message loud and clear. >> if he delivered that 10 billion with a little bit of a rate cut, that would be enough to support markets. right. not the only central bank in focus today. overnight in asia, a surprise
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rate cut from new zealand's central bank. the benchmark cash rate dropping to a record low 2.25%. policymakers there citing china as a major risk to the bank's outlook for economic growth and inflation. the new zealand dollar, the kiwi, tumbling on the news. although, as we look at things now against the u.s. dollar, it's up a little bit. >> but it got slammed. this was a huge surprise. they had just said inflation was looking up. this is a sign that we are about to enter a whole new waefz of global easing. >> indeed. so that one a surprise. meantime, south korea's central bank left its key rate unchanged for a ninth straight month. this was expected. economic data out of china today. consumer inflation there picking up faster than expected last month. the big reason, rising food prices. overall, though, here's how major markets in asia closed today. the shanghai comp, although that cpi was better than expected, reacting to the fact it might lessen the ability of the central bank to ease because inflation a little stronger than expected. so the shanghai comp fell.
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also, producer price inflation was disappointing. the nikkei responding more to the strength in the u.s. and europe yesterday. >> and a weaker yen, which is helping some of the exporters. as for the broader markets, let's show you what's happening in currencies, which gives you a good read on sentiment. the japanese yen is weakening for a change. that's in the middle, where the dollar is strengthening. the euro will be the pair to watch today. euro weakness ahead of draghi. we'll see what happens 7:00 a.m. eastern time. gold with all the central bank action and talk has come under a bit of pressure lately. it's down about half a percent. we'll be watching that of course in the wake of central banks as well. negative rates has been overall pretty positive for gold. we'll see the reaction to draghi as well. >> so central banks in focus today. if there's been one main driver behind stocks of late, it is oil. check out this chart of crude versus the s&p 500 this year. lots of correlation, particularly you would say in the last two or three weeks, since stocks started to rebound.
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jackie deangelis joins us this morning. great to have you up early with us. >> great to be here. >> is this going to continue? >> it's been interesting. i'm going to lay out two cases for you so we can really look at this and analyze it. definitely a bit of a momentum play to the upside. we're down a little this morning but holding over 38. that's very significant. this is the time of year it typically happens. we had an inventory build yesterday, but we're seeing those builds shrink a little bit. gasoline we saw a drawdown because you're going to expect more people to hit the road. the weather is nice. they're going to want to be driving around. that boosts demand. this has been about supply and demand. we have a huge glut. if we start to consume some of it, that's good for oil prices. we've had a lot of opec chatter. all of these headlines have been supportive but no substantive action. we're not really talking about an actual freeze yet or a cut in production. we're not really talking about saudi arabia tapping the market to raise money, although we were discussing it a little bit
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yesterday in more detail, that they're looking to do that. these things have all been positive. we hit those technical levels, algorithms kick in. oil prices start to move higher. the shorts cover as well because they're not necessarily coming into the market to be net long, but they don't want to be short either. the downside bias goes back to the dollar, your favorite, the currencies. with the ecb, if we see dollar strength, you could see more pressure on crude prices. also, remember, an interesting phenomenon here the u.s. as the prices start to rise, the producers may pump more. they feel more comfortable doing that. if that happens and production goes up again, they could slam the price right back down. that's the interesting point right now. you need that supply-demand balance. if everybody doesn't play along to achieve it, we could see more volatility. >> and we are looking ahead to a date later in march where we're seeing producers meet to talk about the output freeze. when is that? what's likely to happen? >> so it's not confirmed just yet. we still are talking about, you know, emergency meetings,
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getting all the members together. remember how difficult that is to get everybody to communicate on a level like that. if we hear something more firm about a date, that a conversation could take place and we could see production cuts, that certainly going to help the oil price move higher. again, i add that to the chatter category. >> they're talking about a date. therefore, that's a step. >> right, exactly. >> jackie, thank you. good to see you. it's another relatively light day for economic data. it is thursday, though, so we get weekly jobless claims out at 8:30 a.m. eastern time. they're expected to slip slightly from the previous week. claims have held below 300,000 for more than 50 straight weeks now. so that is a good sign when it comes to layoffs. then at 2:00 p.m., we'll get the monthly federal budget statement. dollar general, party city, and vail resorts all reporting before the opening bell. square reporting better than expected growth. shares rising on that news.
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square ceo jack dorsey yesterday on "closing bell" responding to investors betting against the company. >> i think we need to constantly show we're focused on the right things. we're focused on building great tools for sellers and that they value them. we continue to see that growth. i think we're not only a first mover in a lot of areas, an innovator in a lot of areas, but also we have the best experience. we certainly compete with a lot, but what we find is that our competitors are only going after one part of the equation, whereas we're looking a the a cohesive end-to-end of what a seller needs. >> jack dorsey is also running twitter. an article in "the wall street journal" today reporting that the social media company has been offering additional restricted stock and cash bonuses to retain talent. twitter has been struggling to keep workers amid questions about the company's future. the stock trading below its ipo
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price, down more than 60% so far for the year. it's something that jack dorsey addressed on the call, the fact that investors still have this concern that he's going to be able to turn around twitter at the same time as running square. he addressed it, played it down. but i think those questions are still going to swirl. >> absolutely. twitter certainly under pressure. still to come here on "worldwide exchange," it's d-day for mario draghi. we'll head to frankfurt for a live report from the ecb next. but first, today's business birthdays. twitter co-founder biz stone is 42. he's gone on to co-create a social media app that encourages users to use photos to ask questions. and our very own david faber turns 52. in his two decades on cnbc, the "squawk on the street" co-anchor has broken several stories, including rupert murdoch's surprise go for dow jones. >> he's going to kill us. he hates talking about his birthday. but he doesn't wake up early. so he's not even watching.
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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." let's get you up to speed on the market action. futures right now a little positive. we found a slight bit of impetus to call the dow open. a top imf official saying the group could cut the global forecast in the weeks to come.
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they're calling on policymakers to take comprehensive action to strengthen their economies, echoing comments from imf managing director christine lagarde last month. back in january, the imf projected global growth of 3.4% in 2016. that was a downgrade in itself. and 3.6% in 2016. while he expressed concerns about a slowdown in china, he does not foresee a hard landing. just echoing other imf comments we've gotten in the last few days, warning about global growth and the need for policy action, especially fiscal policy. they've downgraded their growth forecasts nearly every meeting over the last few years. >> we're not likely to get any fiscal policy today, but we are likely to get monetary policy action. let's get to the big story of the morning, the ecb. cnbc's julia chatterley is in frankfurt waiting for the central bank's policy announcement. what can we expect? >> reporter: well, he's got a lot of options. good morning. if we look at qe, the bond buying program, he could increase the monthly asset
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purchases. currently around 60 billion euros a month. he could extend the maturity of the bond buying program beyond march of next year. he could also expand the collateral. then if we move on to rates, he could take the deposit rate further into negative territory. that's where a lot of the speculation has been. he could also just chuck more money into the system with their long-term lending operations. but as far as the market's expectations, they're expecting between 5 and 10 billion euros of additional purchases per month and a ten basis point deposit rate cut. that's your benchmark. the question is, can he meet those expectations, and does he exceed them by giving us more in the q&a session? i have to say, the traders i've spoken to are staying positioned in the market. far more reticent to take positions into this meeting than they were back in december when everybody was very disappointed with what they came up with.
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so all options on the table at this stage. speculation for an increase in the monthly purchases and a cut in the deposit rate of ten basis points. >> i imagine he might try and pull something out of the hat because we know he likes to do that. just on a different topic. in the press conference, do we expect him to be quizzed and to answer any questions on a potential brexit? of course, mark carney getting a lot of headlines this week for making clear his views on the topic. will mario draghi do the same? >> reporter: it's an interesting one. i'm sure he'll be asked, but he tends to be quite cautious about wading into the debates, particularly when it's not one of the individual eurozone countries. it'll be interesting to see more how he gets out of answering that one, i think, than actually saying something about it in general. >> julia, thanks so much for joining us. we look forward to seeing what mario draghi has in store for us. joining us now to talk about the potential impact on the markets, jim russell.
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he's a portfolio manager at ball and gainer. as far as u.s. stocks, we're coming off our sixth positive session in the last seven. futures are looking up. could mario draghi hurt the newfound rally for u.s. stocks? >> sara, it's a good question. we do think the expectations for the ecb bank action today are pretty high. as you know, we have three central bank meetings here in a row. bank of japan follows the ecb next week. and of course the fed. i think the moons and stars have aligned already for some pretty good action in the stock market. so i think perhaps we're set up for maybe a bit of disappointment, especially where the ecb is concerned. expectations are high. >> when we think about u.s. equities, jim, do they really care what's happening outside, given that we've had better data recently? it paints a picture of strength in the economy here that makes whatever the bank of japan or the ecb is doing a little bit more relevant than perhaps when global growth fears weren't
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quite so high. >> we do think it matters. we think it matters for several reasons. we think export data out of the u.s. has been somewhat weak in recent months, especially out of the manufacturing sector. secondly, we think the ecb and the bank of japan combined with the fed have a pretty palatable and tangible impact on the currency markets. we would hope that whatever comes out of the next three meetings results in perhaps a slightly weaker dollar. it's hard to see that with so much rate cutting and further quantitative easing out of the ecb being the chatter. but we're hopeful the net result of the next three meetings will be a weaker dollar, helping manufacturing and corporate earnings here in the u.s. >> that's sort of a confusing concept for investors, jim. this idea that if mario draghi delivers f the markets cheer him and he overwhelms and he's super mario again, the euro will weaken substantially, and that means our dollar strengthens,
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and that's been a huge headwind for corporate america. so how can that be a good thing for u.s. stocks? >> we don't think it will be. we think -- we're hopeful, yeah, the ecb takes a more moderate approach today and speaks to these programs, doesn't strengthen the euro -- no, strengthens the euro and weakens the dollar. so it's just hard to see that with all the aggressive talk around rate cutting and further quantitative easing in europe. we're totally cognizant they're in a deflationary scenario and probably action is needed. but we do think that the scenario is set up for a negative in the u.s., meaning a strengthening dollar. again, headwinds to u.s. earnings. of course, other things that are not necessarily positive that go along with a stronger dollar, such as continuation, weakness in the manufacturing sector. >> and lower oil. thank you, jim. >> and lower oil. >> jim russell of bahl & gaynor.
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still to come on "worldwide exchange," hillary and bernie square off. sparks flying in last night's democratic debate. the highlights of that coming up. but first, as we head to break, here's today's weather forecast from the weather channel's reynolds wolf. >> sara and wilfred, what a day yesterday. all kind of rough weather in the central and southern plains. we could see another round of that along this boundary. good chance of severe storms, heavy rain, flooding possible, and tornadic activity along the gulf coast. very mild conditions ahead of this. atlanta with partly cloudy skies. pacific northwest, we have a chance of rain in the valleys but high in the mountains, snow for you. no snow to be heard of or seen for much of the mid-atlantic down into atlanta and south and central florida. beautiful springtime warmth can be expected. 66 on the front range of the rockies. bismarck with 64 degrees. 54 in chicago. you're watching cnbc. more coming up on the other side of this commercial break. ver?
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welcome back. in political news this morning, we're now five days ahead of a critical primary test. democrats hillary clinton and bernie sanders facing off in a high-stakes debate while republican marco rubio appears in a town hall. tracie potts joins us with the latest from the campaign trail. >> reporter: good morning. miami, florida, seems to be the center of things right now. the democrats were there last night. the republicans debate there
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tonight. hillary clinton, who's 30 points ahead in florida in the latest poll, says after what happened in michigan, she's not taking that for granted. hillary clinton campaigns in tampa today facing new questions about her e-mails, the republican party suing for more, and about whether she'll be indicted. >> oh, for goodness -- that's not going to happen. i'm not even answering that question. >> reporter: immigration a big topic in last night's miami debate. undocumented children pouring into the u.s. without their parents. >> i say welcome those children into this country. secretary clinton said send them back. that's a difference. >> that is not fair about what i said. i did say we needed to be very concerned about little children coming to this country. >> reporter: on the other side, marco rubio is now publicly acknowledging -- >> it's going to come down to florida for me. we need to win here >> reporter: and on donald trump.
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>> against florida's 99 delegates, we have a very different story. >> reporter: meantime, front runner donald trump so far ahead in florida he's campaigning in north carolina, focusing on isis. >> we got to knock them out. going to knock them out. >> reporter: something he's also hoping to do in florida tuesday. now, trump is up 23 points in the latest republican poll down in florida. that's over marco rubio. but they have already started voting. they do early voting in florida. more than a million people have already cast their ballots in the election. officials say they could be looking at 2 million before the polls even open on tuesday. >> and so many people say michigan is a good barometer for what would happen in ohio because of the demographics and the fact they care about trade and the manufacturing base. how do those states, ohio and florida, look for hillary clinton after that surprise upset in michigan? >> well, florida is still
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looking pretty good. she's 30 points ahead in the latest poll. but again, she was 20 points ahead in michigan. so that's why she's trying to spend some time in florida. but clearly spending a lot more time in ohio. we've seen bill clinton spending quite a bit of time in ohio as well. she's got a shorter spread there. she's about nine points ahead of bernie sanders. so certainly some room for movement. we've still got several days before that primary. >> tracie, thank you. we'll see what happens. should be an interesting few days. we'll watch those polls. tracie potts in washington. only thing you need to know about the election is ohio decides it. not just because it's my home state, but it is the most important swing vote. >> it's going to be huge. >> yep. can't wait. wework has raised nearly half a billion dollars in a new round of financing led by chinese investors. the company says the funding brings its valuation to $16 billion, and that would make it one of the world's most valuable start-ups. interesting timing because it comes as other start-ups have
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marked down their valuations. this shows, i guess, that the spigot has not fully been turned off. it's more discerning. depends what kind of start-up you're in to see if you can get those eye-popping valuations. $16 billion, humongous. >> lots of similar companies popping up. new york has lots of them. the east side of london. >> have you ever been in one of these offices? >> i have, indeed. >> they're cool. you like the beer taps? >> personally, i prefer a little more privacy and desk space. i'm not so good with that. i like to work or play. i don't like the mixture. >> except for this desk. >> apart from this, of course. gosh. don't be silly. now, facebook is swapping some cash with masquerade, buying the company behind the popular face swapping video selfie app. terms haven't been disclosed. already has about 15 million users. masquerade lets people add filters to their photos or
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videos, very much like this one, to make them look like celebrities, animals. this wasn't intended to make us look like anything. it was a simple face swap. >> you look better with my face than i look with your face. >> my face looks like an ape. >> take it off the screen. >> let's get rid of that. that was our face swap. we promise you'll never have to see that again. still to come here on "worldwide exchange," this morning's top stories. plus, mcdonald's expanding its all-day breakfast menu. the details of that coming up. it's throwback thursday too. we're throwing it back with girl groups. we want to hear from you. tell us what music you want us to play hear on "worldwide exchange." follow and contribute to our collaborative play list on spotify. more songs, more analysis, more stories coming up on "worldwide exchange."
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good morning. it's mario draghi's big day. an ecb decision just hours away, and it could be a game changer for global markets. new this morning, changes in the driver's seat. volkswagen's top u.s. executive is out in the aftermath of the diesel emissions scandal. and a subject near and dear to our hearts. breakfast. mcdonald's is expanding its all-day menu. it's thursday, march 10th, 2016. you're watching "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. good morning and welcome to "worldwide exchange" on cnbc.
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i'm sara eisen. >> and i'm wilfred frost. we're counting down to today's big ecb decision. let's have a look on what markets are doing ahead of that. futures just holding on a to a little bit of green. nothing too pronounced. six days of gains in the last seven. it looks like we're going to continue that, although not with too much conviction. the dow called to open up by 23 points. >> although it's been improving throughout the hour. >> but still, small gains. let's have a look at europe as well. we're looking also at a mixed picture. we have the ftse 100 down half a percent. germany and france just about flat. let's have a look at asian trade. we had some strong cpi data out of shanghai. the market there responding really to what that might mean for the ability of the central bank to ease in the face of slightly better inflation as opposed to the strength in the economy. it might imply we had producer price inflation, which was soft.
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japan responding to gains yesterday in europe and the u.s. and a weaker yen. that's up 1.26%. quick look at oil. that's been absolutely key in the last few weeks. we are looking at slight declines today, albeit following strong gains yesterday. >> if you zoom out and look at the market and where we are right now, the fact that we have held the recent gains for u.s. stocks, there are a few factors driving it. oil, of course, number one. energy stocks led the gains yesterday. energy coming off today. still, also importantly holding its gains. the economic data in the u.s. has been better. this is a data-light week. this is an earnings-light week. that's where central banks come into play with the currencies. that's going to be the first reaction. that strong dollar has been so painful for u.s. stocks. this whole idea that central banks just don't have what they used to have to juice the mar t marke markets, it's going to be tested today. that's why the ecb decision and reaction is going to be so important. >> i agree.
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i think the fact we've held on to gains is important, though i'd say it's not been a strong performance. u.s. equities, i'm not sure they'll react that much to what happens in europe. i think the european markets will -- for me, the u.s. is responding to two key things. one, oil, which is ever present in the last two or three weeks. two, what we might see from the fed next week. that's why it's treading water a little this week. we haven't seen strong gains or losses either way. but it has continued, as we've said, six days out of seven with gains, albeit in a more muted fashion. >> the only other thing i would add would be china, which really spooked investors at the beginning of the year and has since managed to stabilize. they've gone on a communication offensive, which is what investors wanted in terms of policy. it's been less of a factor, that 2% slide in the shanghai comp with the resilience in u.s. futures is a good thing. we'll see what mario draghi does. we also have individual stocks for you to watch today, starting with the cloud storage company box, posting a smaller than expected loss. it saw subscribers increase, and
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that helped its bottom line. share reacted positively to the news. chipotle closed a boston area restaurant to clean up after a norovirus scare. it will reopen today. the stock came back off the lows on that news. ambac financial has added to its ceo's responsibilities after a major shareholder went after the company. part of the attack was aimed at the ceo's pay and performance. the stock is higher right now. tailored brands announcing it will close about 250 stores. the news comes after the retailer saw quarterly sales decline by more than 10%. though, that change in strategy seeing the shares jump 6% in premarket trade. volkswagen announcing its top u.s. executive is stepping down. this in the aftermath of the diesel emissions scandal. that stock down about 2% today. hugo boss closing stores.
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it's up 2.7%. in other corporate news, calpers has reached a $130 million setment with moody's over residential mortgages. that stems from losses the pension fund suffered after the housing market collapse and defaults on mortgage-backed securities. standard and poor's reached a similar case with calpers back in february for $125 million. nasdaq is buying international securities exchange from deutsche boerse. the price tag is $1.1 billion. of course, very relevant to the ongoing debate about what happens to the london stock exchange. >> consolidation in that area. bank of america reportedly hiring a new team of investment bankers. reuters saying this group will cater to midsize companies. the bank has been focusing on areas where it believes it can gain market share. now it is time for today's top trending stories. new rankings of this year's most expensive cities. singapore still topping the list. hong kong climbed seven places to tie for second place with
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zurich. the annual economist and intelligence unit survey also showed paris slipping three places. >> i wonder if london is going to get increasingly cheap if the pound slides. new york is pretty expensive too. >> you're just learning that. >> right. >> just renting a new apartment here. >> particularly the rent. mcdonald's is expanding its all-day breakfast menu, launching all-day breakfast in october helped boost sales more than 5% that quarter. they're continuing. >> yeah, consumers were complaining that it wasn't a full breakfast menu. they could only get the egg mcmuffin. here's an example of a tweet. why doesn't mcdonald's have biscuits all day if they're serving breakfast all day? mcmuffins are nasty. all i want is a biscuit. well, after 9:00 a.m., that user will now get a biscuit. other breakfast additions as well. >> we'll see if it keeps working for them. united airlines introducing ten-across seating. >> this sounds awful. >> the update will add 20 more
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seats to certain boeing models, totaling 364 seats on board. emirates, air new zealand, and air france are among global kae carriers that already use the model. >> i can't imagine how little space you'd have. >> if there's nobody on the plane, you can lay out. >> how often does that happen though? instead, you're like this for the whole flight. it can be even worse depending on who you're next to. >> rising travel demand. they need to fill up those seats. >> just don't put me on one of those planes. and a south american penguins travels 5,000 miles every year for a reunion with a man who saved his life. a fisherman outside of rio de janeiro found the penguin covered in oil in 2011. a few months after the penguin was rescued and released, he came back to rio. for the past five months, he spent time with his rescuer in brazil and the rest of the time breeding in argentina.
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>> heartwarming story. time to move on. our twitter and facebook question this morning, what will we get from the ecb meeting? disappointing draghi or super mario? that's the big question for markets today. we'll give you the results of that poll coming up. also coming up, today's must reads, including the polls donald trump has not won. first, we want to share some sad news from the world of wall street. john gutfreund has died. under his leadership, solomon went public and played a key role in creating mortgage-backed securities. he was dubbed the king of wall street by business week back in 1985 and was immortalized in the michael lewis bock "liars poker." he was 86 years old.
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welcome back to "worldwide exchang exchange". futures pointing higher. dow futures up about 20 points. s&p up three. nasdaq up four. building on some slight gains yesterday. though, it could all change at 7:00 a.m. that's where mario draghi and the ecb announce their decision. 7:45 a.m., news conference. wtu crude is under some selling pressure after nearly 5% jump yesterday, settling at the highest close since back in december. wti crude, 37.86. brent at nearly $40.50 a barrel. >> decision at 7:45, news
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conference at 8:30. >> excuse me. thank you. >> don't want people tuning in too early. they'll just dbe disappointed. >> now to today's must-read stories. those catching our attention. all about politics still. after michigan, ahead of ohio, i went with "usa today's" ed board titled "trade isn't the bad guy: our view." almost 12 million people in america work in export-related industries. according to the white house council of economic advisers, they receive $1300 a year more than workers in industries not related to exports. what "usa today" is trying to do is point out the benefits of trade after it was a blatant rejection in the michigan primary, voting for sanders, who's more anti-trade, you could argue, than hillary clinton in his record, and for donald trump. they're saying, hey, maybe it's technology and innovation that's been hurting jobs. but they see why it's politically popular.
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voting against trade puts a face on the negativity. >> it could spiral if we get clear anti-trade. >> protectionists, yeah. >> switching to "the wall street journal" for my must read. sara will be pleased it's not from "the financial times" for once. >> really thinking outside the box. >> i know. reading more than one paper. there we go. the article is titled "the polls trump hasn't won." karl rove, the former deputy chief of staff to george w. bush, writing, mr. trump is the only remaining gop candidate who has never led mrs. clinton in the real clear average. by comparison, mr. kasich is ahead by seven points. ted cruz leads by a fraction of a point, saying that mrs. clinton leads mr. trump by 47-41. i suppose if we do get to those two people as the candidates, that's suddenly what the debate has changed to.
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>> i wonder how many independents he can bring in and how many bernie sanders voters might actually vote for trump. >> exactly. are they supporting sanders because of his socialism or because of his anti-establishmentism. >> just the charisma and anger against establishment. it's going to be fascinating to watch. >> still have to get through the nominations. >> the other thing, the polls are unclear, whether you can actually trust them. >> which as a brit, we know all about after last year's election. all right. when we come back, we're getting ready for the ecb meeting. speculation left and right. we'll check in with jeffries' senior economist next. and don't miss donald trump on "squawk box" this morning. he'll join joe, becky, and andrew live at 8:00 a.m. eastern. one not to miss as we listen to spice girls going to break. back in a couple minutes.
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exchang exchange". futures pointsing to a positive open, albeit a muted one. this coming off six days of gains in the last seven trading days. we've just been treading water a little bit the last few trading sessions. nothing too pronounced. looks like that will continue. 24 points expected to open up for the dow. let's have a look at oil. oil has been crucial, of course, for sentiment. big gains yesterday. though, today we're down just a little bit. wti, 37.8. keep an eye on european trade. we have mario draghi's ecb decision coming at 7:45 a.m. eastern time. we're looking at really the main continental boards trading water. investors keeping ammunition ready for that decision. the ftse 100 down half a percent. sara? >> ahead of it, our twitter and facebook question this morning. what will we get from the ecb meeting this morning? choices, disappointing draghi, like we got in december, or super mario, like we got so many other times before. so far, it's a very close poll.
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we'll bring you the results a little later. >> he's always super to me. >> he is. i like his skinny ties, personally. so we're approaching the top of the hour. that means the team is getting ready for "squawk box." becky quick joins us from new york with a look at what's coming up. the all-important central bank decision, becky. >> that's right. we're going to be talking about that a lot this morning, sara. we have paul mccully, who's going to be our guest host from 7:00 to 9:00 a.m. today. we'll be talking about what he expects out of the ecb then get his reaction at 7:45 when we hear from the ecb. we'll also be joined by greg ipp from "the wall street journal." he's going to talk about what he thinks is happening and some of the negative implications from negative interest rates, including how it may crimp banks and stop some of the lending, which is exactly what the ecb needs right now. we'll be talking about politics this morning as well. you have that republican debate coming up tonight. ahead of that we'll be joined by donald trump himself today, along with carrey fiorina, who's just fresh off her endorsement of ted cruz.
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guys, here's another special guest we have coming up today. biz stone, one of the co-founders of twitter, will be joining us today to talk about a new foundation and some funds he's begin to to be giving out but also talking about twitter and what we've seen happening there. a lot coming up starting in about ten minutes. >> i'm upset. surely your most special guest is me. why didn't i get a mention? >> i was waiting. that was a big surprise and a secret. >> oh, okay. fine. you dug yourself out of that. >> wilfred is joining us alongside everyone i just mentioned. our big guest today is wilfred. >> i look forward to it immensely. >> thanks, guys. >> donald trump and wilfred frost. >> exactly. not sure i like the same breath with that one. anyway, let's discuss more about what to expect from the ecb here on "worldwide exchange." joining us from london, the senior european economist at jeffries international. very good morning to you. thank you for joining us. lots of different tools, i suppose, at mario draghi's
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disposal. rate cuts, qe timelines and qe size. what are you expecting from him today? >> well, we're looking for a 20 point basis cut and qe of about 15 billion. at the same time, i don't think it would be surprising to anyone if the package is quite different from what even we're going for. eng it's all about a combination of measures. certainly what we had in december is draghi supposedly disappointed the markets with a smaller than expected rate cut, but at the same time, he delivered quite a few different measures, extending qe. actually, we think this could be a template for what happens today. it's what's in the q&a that is what draghi will be driving at. >> does the decision, the announcement, the moves, and importantly the market reaction to today's ecb meeting matter for the federal reserve next week in its two-day meeting?
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>> well, certainly that was an interesting story, going back to december, trying to draw parallels. certainly the view was that it was quite difficult maybe for draghi to deliver, to go for that 20-basis point cut. obviously it would have been put pressure on the currency, possibly upward pressure on the u.s. dollar. that would have made the job more difficult for the fed. i think at the moment, we're in a better position. no one really is expecting the fed to do anything until june. our call is that the fed will raise rates again at the june meeting but obviously still another three to four months away. i think the two can be quite dependent. you can have a move from draghi, then a pause while currency markets adjust. the fed can see what their prospects are. at that point make its call of what it wants to do. because nothing is really expected from the fed next week, i think ecb has a bit of a free hand at this meeting. >> what do you think european equities are responding to most of all at the moment? looks like they're treading water today ahead of this decision. is the decision crucial for the
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direction of european equity markets, or is it other factors it, like what the banking sector is doing or what oil prices are doing? >> i think it all depends what we get in terms of measures. certainly if we get an increase of sovereign bond qe, equity markets will simply shrug it off. it's very relevant to fixed income markets, government bond markets. equities are looking at china, looking at bank profitability. sovereign bond qe is not going to get them excited. if we get a deviation where, for instance, ecb comes out with something a bit different, maybe an idea that, you know, potentially some of the central banks will start buying corporate bonds or maybe in time they'll buy equities as well, that could really get them going. for the time being, it's the negative deposit rate. obviously china, other global factors. what ecb does at the moment has not made too much of a difference. it depends whether or not they do more of the same and deviate and do something a bit
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different. >> so credibility is key with central banks. who has more of it right now, mario draghi or janet yellen? >> it's a difficult question. in terms of credibility, we don't they mario draghi has lost any credibility. we took quite a different view. what he delivered in december was quite a big deal. maybe it wasn't the 20 basis point cut in the rate, but at the same time, forward guidance is very, very important for central bankers once you reach the lower bow. extending qe by six months is a very big deal. i don't they mario draghi would have lost any credibility in december meetings. >> has she lost any for the fed move back in december and the follow-up communication? >> i don't think so at all. i think it's very easy to rewrite history, look back in time and say should have done this, should have done that. in reality at that time, our conditions were strong enough for the fed to raise interest rates. everybody knew it's never going to be easy to start raising interest rates. we knew the fed is likely to pause and let the economy
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settle, the markets settle before they move again. moved in december. it is very likely the fed is going to move again in june. so i think that kind of conversation of central banks losing credibility, i don't think it's hugely relevant at the moment. >> what impact will today's ecb decision have on u.s. equities? >> again, difficult question. i think obviously if we get a positive response in european equiti equities, it will drive global markets higher. it's difficult to look at the effectiveness of central bankers. that's the reaction you get today. that's not necessarily a long-term reaction, something that will be sustained longer term. ecb knows it does not have a magic bullet. there's nothing that can announce they're going to fundamentally have people reassess their view on the european economy, european inflation. all these factors take quite a long time to sort of wash out, to kind of have their impact felt on the real economy. so markets may react one way today, a different way tomorrow. fundamentally, draghi and the ecb is looking through these
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short-term movements, really focusing on the fundamentals. what is it going to take to get the european economy going, to get european inflation back to target? that's the real question. what equity markets do day to day i don't think central bankers care about very much. >> thank you so much for joining us this morning. >> less than a minute left to go in the show. a few things to watch today. mine has to be the euro against the dollar. this is going to be the gut reaction to mario draghi at 7:45 decision, 8:30 press conference. it's going to move a lot. weakness would signal the market would be impressed. obviously central bankers like weak currencies. the more fire power in the easing, the more pressure that would be on the euro. it would hurt the u.s. dollar. it would strengthen. still could help u.s. equities. >> i'll be looking at bond yields outside of the likes of germany. so french, italian, spanish. how does mario draghi change the makeup of the bonds he's buying? we could see big moves in some of those more peripheral yields.
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that is it for today's show of "worldwide exchange." lots more coming up on "squawk box." that's the result of our twitter question. >> 54% super mario. you get use to pet odors in your car. you think it smells fine, but your passengers smell this. {ding} eliminate odors you've gone nose blind too, for up to 30 days with the febreze car vent clip. wow, it smells good in here. so you and your passengers can breathe happy.
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good morning. global markets focused on the ecb meeting. the markets waiting for mario draghi to make his next big move. hillary on the hot seat. another battle with bernie sanders while the gop candidates are gearing up for more mud slinging and other stuff and the fierce battle for florida and ohio. and can there be too much of a good thing, like three hours of "squawk box"? no. mcdonald's doesn't think so either. that means more breakfast. it's thursday, march 10th, 2016, and "squawk box" begins right now.
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live from new york, where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box." good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. the main event this morning is the ecb, which is meeting in frankfurt. policy decision is expected around 7:45 a.m. eastern time, and economists are looking for a possible cut in rates again. even below the negative rates that already exist with the european central bank widely expected to roll out more stimulus. we'll be hearing from ecb president mario draghi. that's coming up at 8:30 a.m. eastern time. ahead of the decision, the u.s. futures are sliektly positive. remember yesterday we did see some modest advances for the markets. six out of seven days in a row of gains for both the s&p 500 and the dow. this morning, the dow futures are up by about 23 points. s&p futures up by 3 1/2. the nasdaq up by six. let's take a look at the early trading in europe.


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