tv Worldwide Exchange CNBC March 14, 2016 5:00am-6:01am EDT
good morning, central banks on center stage. the fed, boj, boe and smb all set to make major policy decisions in the coming days. ready for a rally? asian stocks to start the week higher, and in the green with the dax above 10,000. plus, your money, your vote, key primary contests now just 20 hours away. and presidential hopes are pulling out all the stops. it's monday, march 14th, 2016. this is "worldwide exchange."
a very warm welcome to "worldwide exchange," i'm wilfred profit. along with susan lee sitting in for sara eisen. good morning. >> let's get straight to the markets. futures why not a decent end to the week. a very strong rally friday as people digested that ecb decision and decided it was positive risk assets. today, they're looking at profit taking. the dow by four points, s&p by about 5. nasdaq by 10. following strong gains on friday, not too much of a correction expected today. a quick look at the ten-year note, interestingly, back close to 2% for the treasury, highlighting that risk-on sentiment that we've seen in the last couple of weeks. >> good monday morning, let's get to this morning's top stories. the bank of japan beginning its two-day meeting today. a federal decision on wednesday central banks in england and switzerland will also meet this
week. other global news, an attack in the turkish capital of ankara leaving 24 dead. officials say car bomb targeted civilians in a busy bus stop in the city. no one so far has claimed responsibility for this attack. in europe meantime, germany's angela merkel suffering big losses in regional elections and protesting the open government refugee stance. and out of the midwest, an amtrak train traveling from kansas to chicago derailed in kansas. local emergency services are at the scene. there are reports of injuries. we'll have more on that, as we have it. switching gears. let's check in on global markets this morning. asia first up showing a positive session. we do have mixed data out of china. industrial production slightly lower than expected. retail sales slightly lower than
expected. fixed asset investment much better than expected. and that of course one of the fiscal maneuvers that the government could be pulling. nonetheless, you can see positive take on this. here's a look at europe. european trade is looking pretty positive itself at the moment, albeit a little more muted than friday. friday, great performance for the banks deciding that that was in fact a positive session from the ecb the day before, when thursday was mixed performance. friday's strong gains just put the week in posted territory. we're looking at a decent start. germany at 1.6%. interesting that merkel's position in the election, the market struggling this morning. >> oil has been up four straight weeks, the same thing for u.s. markets so it seems that the trend is still intact, as oil goes so goes the benchmarks.
we're losing 2%. $37.72. and barrel brent crude, down 2% or so. let's check on the dollar and the performance as we have so many central banks meeting, boj, boe, smb. the u.s. dollar against the common currency, 1.11. versus the yen, it's interesting that we're looking at more strength. the pound sitting at 1.43 and change. gold, on the safe haven play. gold prices there you go, 1257 an ounce. >> clearly, the ecb was center stage last week. but i think we can't get away from the fact that all of is this having such big impact as you're saying. that's highlighted this morning. because oil is down, that's why u.s. futures are pointing down
lower. oil still leads the market. >> i would also say it's a commodity story. as we mentioned last night, production may have missed. i think the story that everyone is taking from what i'm hearing is the property bill. infrastructure spending 51% in the month of january. that's why we've seen the likes of iron prices again, right. >> that's right. we're constantly focusing on monetary policy. the big lever, and big infrastructure boosting the numbers there. let's get back to market data. there's no economic data but plenty of key reports in the week ahead. tuesday, february retail sales, ppi, and the fed begins its two-day policy meetinging. on wednesday, cpi, housing starts and the fed's decision. economic forecasts and janet
yellen's forecast. let's get you to continue news. blackstone selling strategic hotels and resources and for a price tag of $6.5 billion. blackstone completed it less than a year ago. and buying new york's waldorf astoria for $2 million last february. they're still on the acquisition trail. >> and a lawsuit claims he sexually, physically and emotionally abused a woman over a period of 13 years. he calls the suit extortion and says he plans to file a cross suit. the lawsuit said he had a sexual partner forge a deck indicate and could not longer tolerate his behavior. after paying her $10 million, he
refused to honor the relevant of this agreement. he's seeing for breach of contract. i believe it contains graphic details that he raped the woman. >> yeah, this was an explosive story going across silicon valley. and were something is attacked -- especially hellaciously, people pay attention. let's get to stocks to watch. pfizer abbott taking a hit after people in india pose a ban against codeine-based medicine. chipotle, with a recent filing and activists investigators, opposing a plan to give oscar munoz an additional role as chairman.
more stocks to watch, alibaba announcing that logistics's arm is completing a funding round. they did not suggest how much money is raised. michael kors continues to rally as the retailer continues to expand in asia and menswear. that's barge to barrons. and ingersoll rand could rise 20% in next year. despite the plunge which has weighed on its investors. i'm excited. it's basket season. that's right, march madness has arrived. as fans watch the games and participate in office polls, the ncaa tournaments can also drive employers mad. let's get to landon dowdy. >> good morning. a big welcome to "worldwide exchange." it may be a high point for ncaa fans across the country but time is money for their employers. the action between the 68
universities sets off tuesday and wednesday with the play-in games. it starts thursday with north carolina, virginia, kansas and oregon as the number one seeds and about to get expensive your boss. with an average salary of $25, every hour spent on march madness could cost employers a total of nearly $4 million in lost productivity. workers will have more activity than ever to games streaming across apple tv, road crew and amazon tv. that's likely to be 51 million to participate in office polls. however, outplacement firms say employers should think twice in reigning in the madness. sources say that could result in long-term awareness in morale. wilfred, welcome to america. i don't know if you know the ncaa tournament, but susan, you're a big fan, right? >> i am a big fan.
i'm not a tar heel like you. you are a tar heel. you were telling me that people paid $1,000 for the seats if they took on the blue devils. >> they do get expensive. i went to a tournament. they took on the wahoos, had a big win. i did not pay for those big seats. >> i'm looking forward to -- i've got until tomorrow, right? >> as soon as possible. still to come, a live report from beijing. we'll tell what you the country's new top regulator wants the global markets to know. stay tuned. you're watching cnbc. nger to fly and a passion to build something better. and what an amazing time it's been, decade after decade of innovation, inspiration and wonder. so, we say thank you america for a century of trust, for the privilege of flying higher and higher, together.
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comcast business. built for business. welcome back to "worldwide exchange." a very good morning to you. let's go to the screens. green across the screens in asia. we had mixeded data. a big infrastructure spending boost. that's sent markets high there. also decent machinery orders out of japan. decent data there, best part of 2%. europe also performing well. of course, we go to to friday's markets. that's continuing a little bit today. interesting to see germany at 1.4% despite disappointing regional election results for angela merkel. and oil prices a slightly negative open to the tune of
about 40 points to the dow. susan. a host of chinese officials speaking over the weekend including the new securities chief. he seems to believe that it will continue to support the markets. let's get to beijing with eunice yoon. eunice. >> thanks a lot, susan, the new chief of the regulatory commission the crsc met with the chief over the weekend. he replaces the former boss, mr. shellgon, a man basically blamed for mishandling the market turmoil with various steps of the government. more specifically the circuit break eer system that was put i place in january. he was very much blamed for it. it ended up creating a lot more volatility rather than calming the markets down. he wanted to reassure investors saying he vowed it was going to
help step it up and help the recovery by not putting in place a circuit breaker system anytime soon. and he also said that reforms to the ipo system are going to take some time. he also mentioned that it's still too early for a lot of the state funds to withdraw from the markets. all of those are comments that local investors really wanted to hear. and he also at the same time defended the government's past actions. this is what he had to say. >> the government responsibility remains with transparency and fairness or justice of chinese government market can never be shaken. we can only carry forward the healthy part of the government to investors. in the future where we fall where the markets constantly fails the government should make a decisive move to step in. >> and investors are taking the comments to mean that authorities here are placing a
priority on market stability. they're also -- a lot of people are expecting that the authorities are also placing priority on social stability. because over the weekend, we had thousands of protesters in the northeast rust belt of the country which is an area that has a lost coal mining. there were several people out on the streets demanding more unpaid wages. and they also were protesting these reforms saying that the government, when they're addressing these overcapacity issues need to make sure that they take care of workers. and actually over the weekend as well, we had heard from the regulator of the state-owned enterprises and he actually had said that investors really should not expect to see radical restructuring here. because they want to make sure that workers come first. so, again, wilfred, susan, a message out of the authorities here that eireiterate and
reinforce the overall in tone of this conference that growth is going to take precedence and that reforms will take a backseat. guys. >> eunice yoon there in beijing. we did see the rallies last night in asia. in talking to trading guys, it's not volume that's coming on to the market. in fact, they're being very tepid with their buys. they want to see where the currency is going. the overhang in china is where did the yuen go. >> it has managed to gain a sense in their minds that they're controlling the currency better than they had at the tart of the year. have a look at c nbc.com to see that. still to come here on "worldwide exchange" -- new polls this morning find donald trump ahead in florida and
illinois. but john kasich holds an edge in his home state of ohio. we have the latest from the campaign trail of tomorrow's key primary contests. but first, the national forecast from the weather channel's jen carfagno. >> good monday, susan and wilfred. how about an average day. that's what the temperatures are going to the northeast. a bit chilly actually with some rain coming in as well. we'll add a little bit of snow even in parts of new england so, yes, march can be a very sort of crazy month when it comes to different weather. we do have thunderstorms. same thing that brought thunderstorms or tornadoes last evening. moving through the mid-atlantic, bringing damaging hail. and northwest has got a big system blowing in literally, strong winds, hurricane force over the weekend. winds coming down a bit into the northwest. temperaturewise, a lot of the country either at or above average especially through the middle.
we're well above average, nearly 90 for this day in dallas, texas. i'm meteorologist jen carfagno for weather channel. cnbc's "worldwide exchange" continues after this. ♪ earth hour is about empowering people making a difference to change climate change with passion and excitement earth hour is about inspiring climate action celebrating a global movement and impact ♪ join us at earthhour.org 19th march at 8:30pm ♪ karl, don't you have fryeah, so? ng over? it stinks in here. you've got to wash this whole room are you kidding? wash it?
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nasdaq, just about 8 points or so. let's check out oil prices. oil prices have sentence four straight weeks of gains, hence, four straight weeks of gains for benchmarking. looking at $37.72. and brent trading off at $39.73. gas coming off 1.8. susan, thank you. let's go to politics, there's only one full day of campaigning, hundreds of delegates are awarded on mega tuesday. this is after a few days of shoving and yelling between donald trump supporters and others in the crowd. tracie potts joins us. >> hi, good morning. donald trump has a rally overnight, after three rallies that we saw over the weekend that were not so peaceful. trump that the rally denied that he had anything to do with being responsible for these protesters. five states vote tomorrow with
hundreds of delegates on both sides. florida and ohio, the biggest prizes, winner take all. donald trump is leading florida by double digit. >> i think we're going to do great in florida. >> reporter: he's in tampa tonight after a week of violent protests. bernie sanders denies he's sending them. >> donald trump is a pathological liar. >> reporter: hillary clinton said trump is inciting them. >> he's lighting a fire. holds his hands up and claims he shouldn't be responsible and he should be held responsible. >> reporter: clinton has got a big lead in florida, but it's marco rubio who really needs the sunshine states. >> the words of a president are consequences. >> reporter: slamming trump as he continues his bus tour today. in ohio -- >> i believe we're rising. >> reporter: -- john kasich is now leading in his home state. ted cruz is claiming a tie in north carolina despite the polls. >> it's going to depend on time, who knows up and votes on tuesday.
>> reporter: in florida, nearly 2 million people have already voted. back to ohio today, we'll see mitt romney, the former republican nominee, he's been outspoken on anybody but trump campaign. he's going to be campaigning with john kasich in ohio today. >> tracie, is it make for break for rubio and kasich if they fail to win those florida and ohio contests respectively, are they go to be put out? >> reporter: well, they certainly could. numbers indicate there's certainly reason that they might want to, especially rubio, so far behind in florida. maybe not as much for kasich. he's insisting he's going to win. knowing even if you win, that doesn't get him much closer to the nomination. the numbers just don't seem to be working for him, but what it could do allow him to hang in there. it slows down donald trump so he can hang in there until the convention in the summer perhaps for the nomination. in other words, it just leaves him in the game.
>> tracie, thanks very much. the independent on sunday in london reporting that president barack obama will visit london in april to urge british voters to stay in the european union. obama has previously said he want s britain to stay in the e to maintain the transatlantic partnership. meantime, obama is getting ready to visit cuba this coming sunday. starwood hotels, at&t and merrimar marriott are reportedly looking to complete a deal. at&t looking to get a deal with monopoly. selection sunday has come and gone we're just days away from the start of the big dance. the field has been set for the ncaa men's college basketball tournament. 68 teams are setting their sights on reaching the final four in houston this year. the top seeds, kansas jayhawks,
north carolina tar heels, oregon ducks and virginia cavaliers. who's the favorite, liking kansas followed by michigan and north carolina. >> before the names are revealed by cbs on sunday. halfway through, a filled in bracket was leaked on twitter. some people were skeptical it was real. but there were signs when the matchups on television aligned with those on the brackets. the ncaa says it take the matter very seriously and it looks into it. cbs meantime has no comment. disney's animal kingdom roars again at the box office as "zootopia" claimed the number one spot. the animate film raising $50 million. 10 clover field lane the
low-budget film by abe bra hara respectly start with healthy $25.2 million. and the question today will the fed or bank of japan cause as much of a stir this week as the ecb did last week? or is it much about oil markets? get in touch with us on "worldwide exchange." do cast your vote. we'll be bringing you the results of that poll. >> and the boj is probably going to move in july and probably expanding their asset services. >> and a lot of pressure on the boj, first the performance they hoped. >> youstronger yen, right? confidence at least. we're going to a break here. coming up next, this morning's top stories.
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ant-sized machine capable of moving a two-ton car. it's monday, march 14, 2016, you're watching "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. ♪ a very good morning to you. and a warm welcome to "worldwide exchange." on cnbc. i'm wilfred frost along with susan lee this morning sitting in for sara. >> thanks for the music. whoever does the music on the show does a very good job. >> i'd love to claim the credit. it's got nothing to do with me. let's check in on global markets. futures futuring to a negative open, all it be a small negative opening. we're looking, though, at today, the dow down about 32 points at the open. s&p and nasdaq down similar percentages. they are not following europe and asia where we have green pretty much across the screen. europe turning in a great finish across the week on friday. and the bank responding well to
mario draghi's easing, one day after easing, mixed. today, we're looking at gains across the board in europe. in particular, germany 1.6%, despite a disappointing performance of angela merkel in local elections. let's look at asia as well. asia responding to more infrastructure changes in china as opposed to disappointing retail sales dates da. we also saw machinery in japan with strong gains across the board for asia. and we haven't seen this type of buying since october last year. let's check on the broader markets, wall street with the advance, finishing at really four weeks of gains and seeing their best days since the beginning of this. that does have something to do with oil pricing. oil prices have been up four straight weeks. and today looking at texas crude coming down a little bit, down 2%. and brent crude, close to .67%.
and with the ten years, let's go with the dollar. so many type of banks meeting, boj, smb, and bank of england. and the euro/dollar. and the u.s. dollar. the yen, as you see, looks like the u.s.s. losing ground. and the yen is strengthening with the pound, sitting at 1.43 at change. gold still about 1200 an ounce. 1256 to be exact. j.j. kinahan joins us, good morning to you. >> good morning. >> thanks for joining us. at the end of the last week we saw is a nice rally indeed. what drove that and can it continue this week?
>> i think susan just talked a lot about it, crude oil being up 8% last week. if you look at the correlation between the cnn s&p 500 and cash, up about 70%. more interesting correlating to futures, we have almost a 90% correlation between crude oil and the s&p 500. so it's really interesting to me, everybody is sort of trading crude oil synthetically, whether they realize it or not right now because of how we've seen the year sort of play out. >> we also have a lot of central banks meeting this week. i just wonder where you think the markets are pricing in? >> well, if you look at fed fund rates markets are only pricing at 4% probability that the fed is going to do anything right now. in fact, you have to go all the way out to july before you see a 50/50 probability and november, a 70% that they'll raise rates. so, i think this meeting is going to be more about listening
for what do they say. do they give us an earlier indication of what may happen. and also, you know, how they feel things are sort of tracking versus inflation. because as you know, that's one of the most important things for them. they got a little bit of a bad jolt with the last employment report as we saw wages start to decrease. this week, we get ppi and cpi, we do get a measure of where inflation might be for the consumer and producer. >> do they eat an easing or welcome that we've seen elsewhere in europe and japan, clearly it sparks the idea that currency perhaps don't embrace. but in one case, it's sort of a de facto tightening? >> i think it puts them more in a conundrum to be quite honest than anything else. you certainly don't want to be the other one going the other way. yes, it's great that the bank of
england or the ecb may sort of be doing your work for you, so to speak. but on the other end of it, you don't want to look weak. but it will put them in a tough spot if inflation levels do start to increase. and they have to start raising while other countries are going the other way. putting the worldwide economy in a strange spot as you said, starts a currency war that imports and exports start to get screwed up also. i really think they would rather see the rest of the world be able to stop as their economy starts to stabilize. and the u.s. start continuing, they talked about it for two years also so there is sort of a credibility gap. >> maybe there's a dollar trade this week, j.j., a lot of the economists note from asia last night, a lot of people press the expansion of the stimulus next month. and going into deeper in july. >> yeah, absolutely.
what's interesting to me, it took a lot of people by surprise last week was the incredible move out of the euro on thursday, particularly friday where it went from the 1.0850 to 1.11. we will continue to watch that, that's part of the reason you guys talked about at the top of the show, rallied and then on friday, it's interesting that euro is continuing on its rally as we just talked about the u.s. dollar crude so high. >> j.j. kinahan, thank you for joining us. let's check in on corporate news. blackstone reportedly selling strategic hotels and resorts. price tag, $6.5 billion. blackstone completed its acquisition of strategic hotels less than a years ago now selling it off. and new york waldorf astoria for close to $2 billion last january.
some saying this is an example of a lot of these chinese companies looking to put money into the u.s. stage. let's stick with global news. apollo global is reportedly near a deal of 58 billion in shares. >> it's a fresh market. a fresh week. jury selection begins in a second trial involving a car accident allegedly caused by faulty gm ignition switches, it led to the recall of 2.6 million vehicles in 2014. it has been linked to close to 400 serious injuries and deaths. the first trial ended abruptly in january amidst allegations that the plaintiff gave misleading testimony. gm has already paid $2 billion in settlements and penalties but still faces hundreds of lawsuits. and this trial could be used as a test to see how a jury views
evidence and sets the basis for futures set on those. united airlines ceo oscar munoz returns to work today after a heart attack last october. employees says munoz top of the list is meeting with united labor leaders to resolve outstanding contract issues. in other corporate news, rico is recording yahoo! has completed several projects including yahoo! games, and strategy and several web-search projects. this is supposed to be in an effort to simplify the business. for today's top trending stories, russia's media mogul plans to upload his personality to a robot.
he's bringing top new york scientists together to find a way to upload the human mind by a robot ic character. >> very interesting. maybe bring the avatar to live, right ? pete rose, guess who he is endorsing in the presidential race? >> donald trump. rose was banned from the sport after evidence that he bet on gains he remains a popular figure in his home state of ohio. trump is heading to a presidential primary in states this tuesday now he has rose getting his endorsement. >> then he announced by tweeting a picture of a signed baseball saying make america great again. new research in favor of team work. scientists at stanford university have found a way to use a team of micro robots, the size of ants, to move a two-ton
car. quite extraordinary. >> it is. okay. we have a custody battle over a picasso piece heating up. the artist's daughter allegedly sold the bust twice, first to a family for $46 million. then to high-powered art dealer for $106 million. >> quite a big price. it seems national happy pi day. march 14, 3/14, of course is the ratio, circumference to diameter. 3/14 is also einstein's birthday. >> pi day -- i was thinking of the edible type. coming up, why ecb may have ended talk about negative rates
it doesn't mean that other forms of alchemy by central banks are dead in the water. we'll discuss that, still to come. it's more than a network and the cloud. it's reliable uptime. and multi-layered security. it's how you stay connected to each other and to your customers. with centurylink you get advanced technology solutions, including an industry leading broadband network, and cloud and hosting services - all with dedicated, responsive support. with centurylink as your trusted technology partner, you're free to focus on growing your business.
and financial companies, under the impression that tiered system of rates of banks held at the boj will prevent any damage to profits in the financial system, but the markets profoundly disagree with him. is this a very interesting take on why he thinks the banks aren't working. particularly in response to what i just mentioned, it's the fact that going into negative rates it's moved bond deals across the board and that's where you're getting banks, he's more supportive of minor taxes. an important like central bank's global good take on negative rates. >> that's interesting in japan because of the boj with their massive program, they own 80% of the curve. so there aren't that many bonds. my must read comes from the university of politics and "usa today," how can you miss the story of the weekend, right, the
editorial board's view titled trump, puncher in chief. the piece reads in part if trump were elected and attempted to carry out his campaign promising such as supporting all of the undocumented immigrants in the u.s. 60% of whom have lived in america for a decade or more the social unrest of the past several days would seem tame by comparison. how scary is that. >> over the weekend, he didn't apologize for the fighting. he just always doubles down and refuses to cede to common opinion. we're approaching the top of the hour. that means the team is getting ready for "squawk box." brian sullivan joins us. brian, good morning to you. last week and this week meant to be all about central banks. really the story was oil and will it be again this week? >> yeah, wilfred, susan as well. we're actually on a four-week
win streak for stocks. oil has gone up at the same time. we're keeping on eye on oil. we have got a guest that says that $50 oil may be or the horizon. also talk more about central bank policy. talk more about policy. tomorrow, you've got ohio and florida. that can literally settle the gop nomination and by the way, completely unsettle it. i know you guys talked about the brackets, we're going to get former new york knick great, charles barkley. it's bracketology, oil, the futures. who do you got, susan, the hamilton. >> the argonauts? no. i'm going with kansas. who's your pick? >> unc, it pains me to say that because of dowdy because i know
she's a tar heel. i think the tar heels are going to take it. who do you have? the oxford oxes? >> if the oxford oxes were in it, you know i'd behind them. sadly, i haven't got a pick. i'll go in detail today and tomorrow. >> the winner of this thing is always like somebody who liked the uniform colors. does warren buffett have $1 billion for a perfect bracket, it's never going to happen. just guess. >> we'll have to see. brian, thank you for joining us, 12 minutes to go until "squawk box." coming up, the fed is in focus this week, not for what it does, but for what it may say about future rate hikes this year. we'll get insight from central bank's think john sylvia from wells fargo. he's coming up next. om voya. val from voya? yeah, val from voya. quick question, what are voya retirement squirrels doing in my house?
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up, let's get up to speed on market asia. japan up 1.7%. good machinery there. shanghai up. mixed data. europe also up continuing the gains from late friday, albeit in more muted fashion and u.s. equities at the moment in a negative open, following what oil prices are doing and asia is doing. there are plenty of key reports in the week ahead. tuesday look for february retail sales, ppi, monthly survey and the fed with two-day policy meeting. wednesday, cpi, housing starts and the fed's decision. economic forecasts and janet yellen's news conference. thursday, jobless claims. lots of central bank action this week. let's go to john sylvia, wells fargo chief economist. john good to see you. >> good to see you, susan.
>> they're not going to do anything today or this week, but possibly in the next several months? >> i think you got it right. a trajectory of the federal funds rate that is going to set the tone for the marketplace. will the fed adjust downward again. its trajectory over the next year or two or will it leave it alone? at this point, yeah, it's probably 50/50 because it may be too early for the fed to play their hand. but my suspicion is, going forwards, over the rest of this year, they will lower the projected funds rate. the trajectory is too aggressive, given the inflation numbers that we see. >> john, we're just looking at the u.s. yield, of course, a ten-year tickup, close to 2%. yields have been rising over the last few weeks. is that not down through expectations of a possible rate hike this week or soon after?
>> yeah, i think it does signal that there will be rate hikes but once again, 2% treasuries this year, 2.25, whatever, is going to be pretty similar to what it was last year. what's effectively happening, wilfred, is that it's going to be a flatter yield curve overall. >> well, i want to touch on gold pricing, because it's interesting that we're talking about all of the central bank action. and gold is having a great year. it just hit 13-week high on friday. i'm assuming the market is getting more stimulus from the boj or somewhere else in the world? >> absolutely, i think the negative interest rates that you just talked about in an earlier segment sets the tone of what are investors going to look at. well, the risk is that inflation is going to be a little higher, you're not get anything returns on cash so gold is actually a good alternative for say lot of
people. >> let's talk gold for a moment. it seems its lost its safe haven state tuesd status. and it bounced from 1.08 to 1.11 in the space of an afternoon? >> well, wilfred, the balance, of course, you've got to carry trade. a lot of investors will borrow at inexpensive currency, at this point the euro or the yen and then lend that money in other opportunities for them that is the story for the slightly weaker dollar. but overall, we expect better oil, slightly higher interest rates that means that the dollar on average is up 3% to 5% against other currencies for the rest of this year. >> john, finally, as we look ahead to the rest of the year in the u.s., what particular data points are you focusing on? where do you still need to see
improvement to get confidence that is a decent recovery happening? >> well, i think it has to be inflation number us. the employment numbers are pretty solid. we'll see pretty decent retail sales and consumer spending numbers for this year. but we want to see something with respect to pricing power, showing up in the marketplaces. and i think the inflation trend has to be a little bit stronger to give us confidence that the economy really is operating closer to capacity and at a solid rate. >> do you think this tight correspond lace between the s&p and oil which is just about 70% correlated this year, that's going to stay sbakintact for th rest of 2016? >> i think, susan, it's going to stay intact. i think what's interesting, ohio has become a barometers for the global economy. stronger oil price, a signal of a stronger global economy. it's interesting how that relationship from developed in terms of investor attitudes.
i think that's the key in the next six months to a year in judging global economic growth. >> john sylvia, thank you for joining us from wells fargo. we only have about a minute left to the show. i want to say highlight. i really should say oil, but just look at the day's asia trade. we have mixed daylight dta. and yet we saw thank you markets i'd say the real development in the last month or so in asia has a little more confidence back in china, regardless of what's coming out. we've seen decent performance. >> etfs are buying in, once again, according to a lot of asia investors i'm talking to. sitting tight and waiting to see what the boj is going to decide in the next 24 hours. >> watching the yen as well. quickly, the answer to the twitter question, we asked if the fed or the bank would -- if
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good morning, the countdown to the fed's next decision. will the upcoming meeting put the bulls in a holds pattern after last week's surge? and front-runner donald trump accusing of rallies. and the other march madness. the ncaa brackets they are revealed but not without controversy, selection sunday. it's monday, march 14th, 2016. "squawk box" begins right now. >> announcer: live from new york, where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box."
good morning, everyone. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with andrew ross sorkin and brian sullivan. joe is off, guess what, today is national pi day, that's right, 3.14. what would pie be without the nation's largest pie makers, pizza hut. >> they are sending one over? >> what's that? >> i want them to send one over. >> pizza pie. looking for pies. >> is that why joe is off? is that why i had to come in, national pi day? >> could be. >> the markets are still waiting for the next fed decision. that meeting picks up tomorrow, wraps up wednesday with fed chair janet yellen holding a news conference. after four weeks of gains, dow