tv Fast Money CNBC March 23, 2016 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT
i'm sue herera and here's the latest at this hour. reports not confirmed by nbc news say the suspected bomb-maker in the paris attacks was one of the two suicide bombers who died in the brussels airport blast. officials say the dna was verified as one of the attackers. president obama held a joint news conference with argentine president in buenos aires in the wake of the bruce el attacks and defended his strategy against the islamic state. >> there's no more important item on my agenda than going after them and defeating them. the issue is how do we do it in an intelligent way? what has been working is air strikes that we're taking on their leadership and infrastructure and financial systems. >> moantime the state department announcing secretary of state
john kerry will travel to brussels on friday to express his condolences and meet with belgian and european officials. belgium is holding a mass vigil outside the brussels stock exchange. they left flowers and lit candles for the victims of the bombing attacks. this as the country began three days of mourning. you are up to date. "fast money" starts right now. "fast money" does start right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square i'm melissa lee. our traders on the desk are tim seymour, david sieberg, karen finerman and brian kelly. tonight on "fast" something happened in the market and it's eerily are reminiscent of the moves right before the august swoon. what that is and how you can protect us and is perma bear peter schiff about to come out of hibernation? marc faber turned bullish yesterday and could sciff follow
soon? one thing you need to know. today the story was the volatility in oil, gold and bonds all seeing extreme moves and all coming as the s&p is now negative on the year, so is this a precursor of what's to come next in stocks? brian kell? >> you know my view that i do think we go lower. let's just say you don't share b.k.'s view and you think things will go sideways and we'll have a correction. volatility where it is, one, you have to be cautious. today's move in my view was the dollar. we had a strong dollar today. we had three fed presidents come out and talk about the fact that they may actually hike rates in april and look at what happened. we had the yield curve flatten and had the financials come in so for me i think if you want to be aggressive in this mark, you sell the financials and when you're done selling them you sell them once again. >> mentioned volatility and the other asset classes because when you see the volatility it doesn't stay contained to the asset classes and eventually goes to equities as well. >> are we going to try a time again when the markets do you know what to the bed because
that's when it feels like everybody is trying to do here. frankly, i think markets traded very well when you considered the news yesterday out of europe and when you consider the fear and consider what the dollar should have done and you consider how weak the dollar -- i mean, the dollar has been very, very weak, and it should be rallying in this environment. 50 bips today is not a turn. events. >> it's a turn of events in the sense that the three federal governors came out and said we were looking at hiking rates and the yield curve flattened. that's a huge change in the market. that's something that we haven't seen since we saw -- since back in january. >> the way i look at, that first of all, three fed governors, the fed has been all over the word. am i listening to stan fisher who tells me three fed hikes before 2016 in the fed has to be pulling back, too. a little inflation is what everybody wants here. in fact, if i look at tips and security and inflation protected securities, core inflation needs commodity prices stay high, and these exactly where people have been wrong. everybody is expecting the central bank policy doesn't work, it's working. >> i think the market has hung
in there pretty well after a huge run to see a meaningful pullback wouldn't be surprising, and we haven't even seen that. volatility index up today but not nearly reflecting anything like panic or anything like that. i thought it would have been up maybe more, so, i -- i would buy more s&p puts and hold what you like. >> i don't think anybody is trying to time the market necessarily, but if one is to believe that what we've seen in the past is volatility and other asset classes being transferred to volume tilt in stocks, at this point what's a risk/reward to remaining long the snarkt. >> i don't think there is one. we're at a level that probably takes sales and look at the volatility index in the front month. i'll tell you what. when you look at that and break it down, there's a disparity there that's pretty striking. it's really, really pressed so i look at it say total complacency on the investors' part and no protection for moving the market to the downside. >> everybody is saying oh, okay,
fine. we're getting a little bit of a pullback. for a bear like me that means nobody is protected. >> the way i look at this the market is responding to the events in europe and saying this is an awful, awful event but guess what. it does not change the course of the global economy in two days, and the fact of the matter is equities should be trading expensive to every other asset class in this environment and yields are negative. >> i agree with you. >> should be trading expense fife you're going to have an economy that goes down. you'll have earnings that have been going down and are going to continue to go down. they are really expensive. >> why don't you say earnings can continue to go down. >> because all indications are we're headed towards a recession. >> all right. i want to know what you guys are doing today. b.k.? >> i'm just saying that the probability of a recession has not changed that much in the last several months, and we've already seen multiple quarters of earnings recession which most. >> so what did you do today?
>> so today i think you can buy s&p. i would buy spy puts if you want to say long things and if you want to be aggressive. >> spy sputs and footlocker, traded the same stock price yet footlocker is a 13 multiple of what nike is so i want to be long that. like to wait a day or two or three after a big selloff like this. i would be happy to own it here. >> i would say footlocker's wholbusiness is predicated on trouble. >> yeah, you're saying it shouldn't be sold off on the same day nike is because they are not the same business. >> because they are not the same price at all. >> right. >> i think the emp names, sell them and buy the refiners based on the inventory data they hit for a short-term trade. that's what was occurring in the tape today in that space. general, if you're a lange-term investor wait for a pullback for -- for lower levels to get
back involved here because i do think we're topping in the tape just in general. i think things moved way too far and way too fast and i think that so many short sellers that got burned. when this market moved. nobody is willing to short the tape right now so that's just going to take a little bit of supply. >> that's exactly what's going on, everybody. everybody remembers how -- high five, bid. >> the point is that i think we're in a place where everyone is expecting the market to pull back and that's exactly what's driving the market higher. now you said being long the market. it's not about being long the market. it's about being long stocks and ultimately getting to a place here. fedex looks expensive and home depot looks expensive and these are places i would be fading this rally. >> all right. we talked about volatility in asset classes which brings us to the move of the day, the gld, the gold etf falling nearly 2%. the yellow metal is your best and safest best in a stalling market and he's here to tell us why. time to go bear hunting with your specific capital ceo. peter schiff, good to have you.
>> thanks for having me back. forgot how casual you are. >> yeah. >> looking good. >> peter, let's get to t.gold. you've been bullish gold for a long time. what makes it more compelling in this environment? >> well, first of all, unlike the stock market gold is still up considerably on the year. it's down today because the fed is back to its old trifnlgts i think they are bluffing an april rate hike and they played that game all last year. they waited until december to finally pull the trigger a tiny rate hike and that was a disaster. we're off to the worst stock market start in history. the only reason the market rallied is because they backtrack and now all of a sudden they are testing the water on backtracking again and i don't think they are going to like what happens. >> do we need stocks to go down in order for gold to go higher? >> no. in fact the funny thing is gold went down today because people are afraid of the fed raising rates. what happened the last time the fed raised rates? gold went way up, so if anything, if the fed does that
again and the stock market tanks gold will get the safe haven bid but ultimately i don't think the fed wants to put another pin in this bubble. i agree we're in a recession. i don't think we're going in a recession. i think we're in one right now, and i don't think the fed wants to add a bear market to a recession. i think they are going to keep this bubble going. they are going to talk as if they can raise rates because they don't want to admit that this is a bubble, but they don't want to let the air out so i think this is a buying gold. >> so for a good portion a lot of moves, gold went up and the dollar went up on the same day. in your view can that correlation be broken? the old correlation of dollar goes down and gold goes up, can the dollar and gold over a long period of time go up together? >> well, they could, but i don't think that's what's going to happen. i think that the dollar is going to go down, too. in fact, against most currencies the dollar is down this year. the dollar was up today, but if you look at the trend i think the trend in the dollar has reversed because the dollar gained for years based on the idea that the fed was going to be raising rates, but i know
that they can't do that and the minute they raise rates they put us right back into recession and they have to cut rates and have to relaunch qe so ultimately the dollar is going to sell off so it's not just the buy the rumor and sell the fact. it's buy the rumor and sell because the rumor is not true because the fed can't actually deliver the rate hike that the market expected. >> and i hear you. the argument on gold, gold probably going higher for different reasons and you've been bashing the fed forever and you said interest rates were going to 10% because the fed was financing something that they couldn't do in this economy. the statements about the economy ultimately get you to a place where, first of all, as far as i'm concerned, the market can remain more irrational and i think you must believe it has to have been for the past six years and it's been going higher longer than someone can stay solvent, not saying you, but the point is how long do you try to bet against the fed in an environment where the fed has proven they can do whatever they want and people who have tried to game the fed have been wrong. >> betting against the fed has been very successful. the fed has made a lot of
mistakes. look at disaster that happened in the housing market because of the fed and there were people who made a lot of money bet being against the fed. >> are you talking about '08? >> yeah, the housing bubble inflated over a number of years and if you bet against the fed and bought gold, look where gold was in 1999-2000. it was under $300 an ounce. the fed one of the main reasons it's now above $1,200 so buying gold is a bet against the fed and that bet has paid off more than stocks. >> i just don't agree with that. first of all, stocks went from 650 or 666. >> straight up. >> went up three and a half times. gold went from a peek and is down. you're in a place where everything the fed has done. you may not like fed policy from a pure economic perspective and it may be something that's a road to ruin. who knows. i don't like the fact that we can't normalize interest rates either but the reality is that has worked for asset prices. >> so what. it hasn't worked for the overall economy. why do you think they can't normalize interest rates? why do you think they are still
so low after seven years, because this is a gigantic bubble and if the fed tries to raise interest rates we'll have a worse financial crisis than the one they caused in 2008, and so you can't say that this is a success. it is a complete failure. people just don't know it yet because the high hasn't worn off. >> i think pumping liquidity in marks that were seizing up and institutions that were failing right and left, this is the job -- >> the fed lit the fire and now you're claiming you should get them credit for putting it out. they didn't put it out. they put it out with gasoline and it's coming back bigger. >> the fed is trying to reverse course so you're actually going along with the fed if you're bearish here in a sense. they want to pop this bubble. >> no, no. they don't even want to admit that it is a bubble. why do you think on this show when they first started doing this, when they launched question, when they brought interest rates down to zero i said it was a monetary roach motel and i said that for a reason, because i said once they check us in, they can never check us out and that's what they are finding out right now. >> where's the dollar going because he thinks it's going higher? where do you think it's going? >> i think it's going lower because i don't think the fed is
going to be able to deliver the rate hikes. i think we're going to get back to zero, maybe even negative. i think they are doing qe4. >> how much of a recession, how much worse does it get? >> i think this recession -- >> we're not in a recession. >> hold on. let him go. this is his view. >> never know you're in a recession until afterwards. they didn't tell us were in the great recession of 2008 until it was almost over, right, so i think by the time they revise the numbers i think this recession that we're in now probably began at the end of last year. >> how much worse does it get when they raise rates is what i'm asking? >> i don't think they are going to. eventually the market is going to force higher rates. >> okay. >> but i think this recession is going to be greater than what we now call the great recession so we'll have to rename that one because this one is going to be bigger. >> going to be the worst recession. >> and i think whoever replaces barack obama is going to inherit a worse recession than the one he inherited from bush. >> all right. >> peter, thank you for stopping by. >> my pleasure. >> fiery discussion with him. >> and happy birthday. >> and happy birthday.
>> peter schiff of bureau pacific capital. >> lots town pack here. >> good dialogue. i'm in tim's camp and i think you look at a lot of people who have been extremely negative and constructive on the market, right, there's an intellectual sort of ability to like look around you and see what the fed is doing and what other pockets. market are do, but have you to separate things when you're reacting and investing, so i say to you if you fought the fed this entire move higher would you have lost a tremendous amount of money, and if you listened to the intellectuals talking about the fact that there are things that are swaying, you would have lost, you know, your shirt so i look at it and say be very careful and don't necessarily fight the fed under any circumstance. >> up next. something is happening in the markets and it's reminding some traders of what happened just before the august swoon. we'll tell what you that is and how you can protect yourself and the so-called smart money is getting crushed with some of the biggest names feeling the most pain. weave got one hedge fund that's steadily beating market, and he says there's one thing you need
to be buying right now. he'll reveal what that is and later one. fastest growing media companies is suddenly coming under attack. the author of the scathing article that claims device media isn't all that it's cracked up to be. we'll explain when "fast money" returns. man 1: i came as fast as i could. what's up?
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welcome back to "fast money." the cloudy wars are heating up. google had its first global cloud users today announcing it's planning on unveiling 12 new cloud data centers within the next 18 months and under the guise of its new chief plans to boost its marketing efforts giving google a significant boost among the competition where amazon still takes the top spot in terms of infrastructure market share. karen? >> yeah, you know, as a google holder, nice that they want to be a home depot, more an old as opposed to a new economy. wynn, that's good because google has had more success in a new economy but still a tiny, tiny player. amazon with 31% of the market and a distant second i think is microsoft at 9 and ibm at 7 and google at a trailing fourth,
okay. 4% and in fourth place. this is going to be an uphill battle for them, and i don't know that it's going to be wildly profitable. as a google holder. if they were to get an amazon multiple on their cloud, that would be fantastic, but i don't think it's going to happen. >> well, for me what's interesting. i think this is negative news for amazon in the sense that aws, their web services, is the growth engine. it's the reason why amazon trades at the multiple that it does. now that chart we had up there shows amazon with the lead but it also shows four formidable competitors coming out there. let's just say google gains a couple of shares and microsoft gains more percentage. it's going to come out or likely could come out of amazon and then the story on amazon falls apart so that to me is like kind of a canary in the coal mine. >> listen i think amazon did $9 billion in revenue in aws and it's projected to grow 55% this year. that may be low. you look at google. google did about a billion. there's a multi-strategy
platform going on where people want to use different outlets so i say google is going to benefit. will actually benefit and not a hit to amazon whatsoever. >> that's projected to grow without competitors. >> it will take a lot for google to catch up, although people do want to invest there. >> usually a hit to the smaller competitors that are having trouble competing. >> absolutely. >> right now amazon is dominating a way nobody is going to see them relinquish much space but i think amazon is almost priced to perfection at this point and it's traded higher and up and down. they have actually showed profitability but this is not a reason to go out and buy amazon. that's in the price and why it trades at 200 times earnings. >> coming up next, k.b. homes soaring. the rally is confirmed to still be intact. we'll explain. i'm melissa lee, cnbc, first in business worldwide. moantime, here what else is coming up on "fast." >> in this universe there's only one absolute.
everything freezes. >> including stocks, and the lack of movement in the market is reminding some traders of a scary period for your money. we'll explain, and later ♪ hey, hey, you, you, get into car ♪ >> bad advice, dude. because auto stocks are stuck in reverse, and it might get a lot worse. we'll tell you why when "fast money" returns.
welcome back. cnbc's seema mody is here with details. >> reporter: a big mover after hours. home builders first-quarter earnings and results beating expectations. the company's earnings statement jeff remetzger said we ended the quart we are a healthy backlog and continued positive backlog and reinforcing our favorable outlook and this is a somewhat good sign for the struggling housing market as the industry is going through a supply shortage that coupled with rising demand is driving up prices. again, despite the headwinds shares of k.b. homes up about 13% this year. melissa? >> thanks very much, seema mody. want to go to b.k. because his final trade was itb, builders.
>> i can quickly go from here to zero. itb down 1.5% and looked fantastic after this. see what happens tomorrow. if you followed me that, use today's high as your stop out of that. now this doesn't square. what k.b. reported doesn't necessarily square with the broader picture data that we're getting from the home sector. you also look at average hourly wages versus home price increases. home prices have increased tremendously, so for me i'm going to remain bearish in general on the housing sector until you start to see earnings. >> the offset to increasing home prices is mortgage rates have still remained low. on a monthly payment basis, it's okay. >> it's a lot easier. >> yeah. >> what's interest, i kind of think housing is going to recover by 2017 to historic levels which means that these guys are drastically underperforming. this stock going into the numbers has rallied 30% off the lows. doesn't mean though that maybe the lows weren't excessive because this stock got destroyed going into the market downdraft. i think it should be trading 15,
16 times which means this is a $15 or $16 stock and i think these numbers, i think ultimately validate the fact that their business is back on track and their cash flows are better but it's had a huge month. >> i'm with you. i think there's going to be a recovery in the home space and i think the housing market is going to continue to work. there was a massive shift with the millennials and moving to city and migrating to cities and jobs were there. when jobs tart to spread out which is what you're trying to see, you'll see a migration back out to more suburban type areas and i think that will take -- >> home formation has actually declined the last couple of months. >> that's one of the drivers of it and i know mortgage rates have stayed low and if priced are rising, even they have essentially remained flat. they are low and remain flat through this period. >> rents have taken off and began through the roof. you can buy a property for $175,000 and $200,000 and make 12% on your money and rending it
back. >> at some point that picks up. >> i kind of agree with b.k. from an affordable perspective you may have a cheap mortgage and the affordability level has never been worse and that's why house sales have not been higher and we have to overcome there. one hedge fund manager who is up more than 14% this yore says there's one-year that you need to own right now. he'll tell us what that is and one of the fest of the growing media cops in the game as many sitting down with fire. mortgage-backed bonds. an interview you don't want to miss right after this. oh remotes, you've had it tough.
by visiting xfinty.com/voiceremote. the dow and s&p 500 finishing the day near session lows and a loss of more than 1%. ow tilts and consumer staples were the only to post a gabe today. here's what's coming up in the second half of "fast money." we go inside the new york auto show to look for the biggest
trends in the auto industry. which car company came out on top and vise media, the subject of a scathing article that lichens its business to an mortgage-backed security. that author explains what has him so troubled and let's start off with the markets. it's been eerily quiet out there and take a look at chart of the s&p 500, barely budging in the last five trading sessions and that has some people drawing comparisons to a very turbulent time so could this be the calm before the storm and breaking it down is always a man who is calm and never quiet. the one and only dom chu. hey, dom. >> i'm a guy who always likes to try to keep calm, carry on, that sort of thing, but there's a lot of ways you can look at this market, calm and quiet is one of them. let me show you what i'm talking about because today we hit our eighth straight day of no market volatility, and we're going to say market volatility gains or losses greater than a percent and go back to that today and you can see here just fraction
a. fractional gains and losses throughout the course of these eight days. the most volatile day that we've seen in that eight was the move higher back on march 17th. that was the most volatile one. if you talk about the call markets, interesting to put this in a little bit of context. no statistical significance implied here, but of the last time we saw eight straight days worth of no gains or losses worth 1%, that was back here and you have to go back to basically the summer of last year and twa basically the period ended right around just call it august 7th of last year. now the interesting part about this is that little calm period that we saw kind of in this moment here was right before, of course, the big august swoon. the markets in turmoil and that sort of thing. a lot of questions about whether we're seeing consolidation and no volatility setup here and ahead of what could be maybe the last time around a big drop to the downside. now, we don't know what's going
to happen here. it may resolve itself up and may resolve itself down and still something we keep an eye on and i'm going to channel my inner kingston trio here and say where have all the traders gone because the kind of volume woe offseen for the first couple of days this week, the lowest volume. year so low volume and low volatility. the question is how does this market resolve itself. back over to you guys. melissa. >> dom chu, thanks so much. worth noting that the 52-week low is 10.will and here we are sitting below 15 still. >> worth noting probably the first time the kingston trio has ever been brought up. >> 100%. i think it's interesting. it's interesting where the market is in terms technically, right. we're looking at the top of this channel that the market has been trading in. it turned right at the technical level and now also, remember, we're in a buyback blackout period so you have all these things at the very least it says to people i don't need to be aggressive with my buy orders and i have them on the other
side where i'm going to go much lower and at the very least a little bit of a pullback would not surprise anybody. >> our next guest says brace for more volatility, and you want to listen to him because he's the third best performing hedge fund manage they are year according to hsbc. he runs the diversified offshore fund which is $800 million under asset management. great to have you with us. >> thanks, meg is a. >> there's a quite before the storm and there's a storm coming. do you agree with that? >> the driver from our perspective is the lack of kwooesing, so for six years we had this surge of liquidity, this tide that suppressed liquidity in equities and that's gone now, and almost exactly when that ended were saw volatility start to creep back in many markets and finally made it into equities, had three 10% to 12% corrections in the past 12 months. >> do we see that swoon in
august and? >> well, it's important for me to put a caveat. what we do is very, very short-term trading so anything i say is based on computer predictions that are just a day or two in duration. >> sure. >> so i will tell you that right now our models are bearish on equities and bullish on fixed income and gold. what they are saying there's an established trend in fixed income and gold and that's going to continue. >> so along with gold, i mean, i know, according to the computer forecast. the corollary would be gold miners. i mean, we've seen quite a run in those as well. >> anyone with gold exposure in any way is probably a good thing to do. >> right. >> so in terms of how the market resolves itself, if there's going to be a lack of liquidity out there and that's going to be the normal state then what is the trend for market once we do have this sort storm after the calm and equities go down? >> i think the solution right now is to recognize that you have to be much more diversified than you did for the last 60 or 70 years so don't forget about fixed income or forget about things that are outside the
equity and fixed income world. we've lived in a world for careers where it's been very, very easy to be long equities. i don't think that's going to be true. it's hard to remember that this boring fixed income market might be a very fine place to be, especially if there's a correction. >> what's the best case scenario for your strategy? what do you hope happens? >> we love volatility. in fact, when people visit our office we hand out a bag that says i love volatility. we thrive on how much the markets are moving day to day, not hoy or low but is it moving and not just equities but all asset classes. >> is that because there's inefficiencies there in the volatility that allows to you capitalize? >> yes. what happens when markets get volatile is investors become more predictable by our computer because the strategy that we use has the idea that innately in the decision-making are these instincts that have evolved in our brains for millions of years. they -- they give u this inexorable desire to follow the
herd when the herd is stampeding in one way. we remember the last couple of days of trading. we overuse that when we make decisions, so when people get emotionally aroused in some way by what's going on. >> right. >> that's what they get predictable. >> hope to leave it there. >> hope to see you again. >> what do you think? >> it's interesting. so, again, some of that predictability that i think is where markets have been. you can make an argument in the last three to six months. we're in a place where people are expecting central banks -- the ferksd as roy said, more volatility than less. i totally agree with that. i think you remove kwooesing. you remove central bank from policy. the question is how big is the storm, and when markets overreact in the other direction what's the behavior and then, again, there's opportunities in the other direction. i don't think the storm is this -- this tsunami that everybody is talking about. >> we saw a storm to the upside. >> right. >> from february 11th which was quite a powerful one, right? >> the calm after the storm in
my opinion. >> came after a huge storm. >> we haven't even come close to seeing the storm yet. >> held on. what is that storm? >> like a hurricane. what category hurricane? >> what i mean by that is a global de-leveraging. debt levels that have never been higher. a global de-leveraging which will -- >> i don't agree with that the at all. if you look at the u.s. financial institutions, for example. >> i'm talking on a global level we've never had debt-to-gdp never higher. >> central banks have dumped some money on the problem. >> hand now they are taking away. >> central banks can at least continue to dump as much on the problem as much as they want to so ultimately it's a bridge to the other side and so far it's proven to be a very successful bridge to slowly walk across. >> i don't know -- it's been successful for stocks, that's it. it's clearly proven that it's not successful for the economy and at some point that begins to matter because it goes into earnings and that's what we're seeing right now. >> i agree. i agree with you there's issues. i don't think china is going to rear its ugly head again.
massive debt issues there. we'll never know. china will be opaque for the rest of my life, right, so i can't make an investment decision based on china and whether or not i believe or don't believe the data. i will tell you though we did see a storm. we saw a massive storm, and the hedge funds are feeling the repercussions of that storm right now through performance and, therefore, nobody is willing to trade this tape. >> coming, one of the biggest auto shows of the year kicking off today in new york city. phil lebeau is live at the event. hey, phil. >> hey, melissa, the new york auto show has long been known as the place to seat newest luxury model. well, we've got a couple of high-end models that we're going to show you in just a little bit. when "fast money" returns, you want to see what the models are all about and the outlook for the auto industry. g in touch wi. at&t can help you stay connected. am i seeing double? no ma'am. our at&t 'buy one get one free' makes it easier for your staff to send appointment reminders to your customers... ...and share promotions on social media? you know it! now i'm seeing dollar signs. you should probably get your eyes checked. good one babe.
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a registered investment professional at investor.gov. it's a great first step toward protecting your money. before you invest, investor.gov. welcome back to "fast money." the new york auto show opened to the public this friday but our own phil lebeau is there with a preview of the industry's new hottest automobiles. hey, phil. >> reporter: melissa, luxury is the name of the game at the javitz center this week and we've got a couple of models you'll want to check out if you come down here first starting with mercedes. the glc coup, the crossover version of the glc. it goes on sale next year. you might be saying to yourself it's crossover. why are so many luxury
ault-makers building a crossover? because sales since 2011 in that segment are up 279%. okay. so you don't want a crossover. you're looking for a performance automobile. look at the new nissan gtr. now, this is the halo car in the nissan lineup. that doesn't mean that it's a mass market automobile. you're going to be looking at something that's going to price at well over $100,000. probably in that $105,000, $110 range. in terms. market overall we had a chance to talk with nissan ceo earlier today and here's his thoughts in terms of where the u.s. auto market is this year. >> the u.s. market is in good shape. frankly we were forecasting for 2016 a 2% increase of the u.s. market. we're more on a trend 3.5% which is higher than we thought. >> mr. ghosn along with other executives say the same thing. they believe that the industry knows that the downturn is
coming eventually and that it can manage it, but melissa, we have seen this industry does not have a good track record when it comes to managing the top of a market. almost everybody agrees it's either this year or next year that we definitely will see the peak for auto sales. >> phil, thank you. phil lebeau at the new york auto show. that's an interesting point, that almost nobody in the industry can actually manage the peak well. >> right, i know. that's the nature of the business. so many businesses like that. makes me afraid to even think good earnings, that won't be enough to do it because people say, all right, well, that's the peak so, you know, it's going to turn. >> and the stocks reflect that. >> auto sales have been fantastic and these guys and margins are fine and ford selling more f-150s than they have ever had, and yet, ford, if you look at it. in fact if i look at this technically, if it doesn't hold 13.20 and we're in a pullback and doesn't have to be that.
i want to be long because of the negativity in the sector and talked about the mpls in the ought ore sector. >> non-performing levels. >> talked about inventories an inventory levels seem like they are creeping up at the manufacturers and they are putting a lot of pressure on the dealers to take on more inventory so sales have sort of stayed relatively flattish an inventories are building up so i'm concerned about that from a long-term perspective. >> i read the staggering stock. the average age of an auto on the road is 11 1/2 years which is a record high. >> got to get that ford pinto off the road, brian. >> i'll trade it in for a yugo. yeah, actually that is kind of -- i saw that stat as well, and because that stat has been going on for a while. remember, people put off auto sales during the great recession and then we had this huge wave of auto buying out there which appears to be, if it's not peaking at last flat lining at the same time as dave mentioned. you're starting to see production increase from the
dealer -- from the automakers ford and gm and guys like mike jackson, ceo of auto nation, largest car dealership in the world things are slowing down and to go back to our last discussion, if you lose the auto sales, it's been a huge dreifort economy which could impact and make a slower economy and lower earnings. >> brings us back to the storm. >> exactly. >> let's stick with the autos here. gm is down 8% and one trader sees even more pain ahead. mike coe here. >> saw two times the average daily put volume and you can see how volatile the stock has been, up 15% off the lows we saw several weeks ago and actually the trade we saw today was a big buy of almost 14,000 of the may 30, 28 put spreads. 40 cents and that pays about 4-1. can you so basically it's retracing right back to this area of lows here, and i would point out one thing here, too, which is this isn't the only stock that saw bearish activity.
saw above average in puts for today and also in some of the parts suppliers like johnson controls which saw 20 times its average daily volume also is making a hedge for bearish bets. >> thanks so much for that. check out the whole show. off this frida for good friday, and we're back the following friday at 5:30 p.m. >> how can we make it through easter weekend? >> watch last weekend's episode. >> a trade publication raises some trouble questions about the fast growing media company. more "fast" coming up on cnbc, first in business worldwide. k h. wow, that was random. random? no. it's all about understanding patterns. like the mail guy at 3:12pm every day or jerry getting dumped every third tuesday. jerry: every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement.
. welcome back to "fast money." i'm julia boorstin with the latest on vice. an article making the rounds saying the company's web traffic fell over 17% from january to february. we reached out to com score to clarify the numbers and spoke to vice who calls "variety's" character sakes misleading and vice's traffic has continued to slow. traffic in the digital network, the partner space that vice sell ads for taking a fee is what declined. "variety" quote intentionally
misconstrued the 17% dip in part anywhere traffic as a vice partner dip. that ad network in its entirety represented 3.8% of vice's total u.s. very much knew so the traffic decline is immaterial. the vast majority of vice revenue comes from licensing and production geels with the likes of hbo and the creation of sponsored or native content. last month it announced partnerships with samsung, toyota and others. melissa, back over to you. >> thanks so much, julia boorstin. for monlet's brung in the co-editor-in-chief at "variety" and wrote the article. >> good evening. >> vice comes out and says that your numbers are wrong. what do you say? where are you getting your numbers from? why is there this discrepancy? >> i'm getting my numbers directly from com score and i went to vice with those numbers and if you look at the comments in the story they are not
stating it is a misleading because it's not misleading, and if it's so immaterial why is it that as recently as january they continued to bundle in new websites that they do not in fact own? why, because they are trying to inflate their numbers for markets. >> you say they are using inflated numbers in order to get better ad rates. >> absolutely, and i don't mean to suggest that they are the only ones, probably the most prominent and aggressive example of a company that is essentially doing what is kind of like a usage securities where you bundle in other lesser marketing placement in with the vice placement just so it looks like it's a bigger number. >> so, are you -- i mean, vice is a very high-profile sort of fast growing media company. it's gone, what, $1 billion, $1 billion plus valuation when it raised some money.
is that why you're raising questions and maybe the valuation of vice shouldn't be where it is because it's inflating numbers because it points out most of its revenues do come from production of content. >> our article points that out as well. i don't anywhere in the article suggest anything with regard to its current valuation. what recent months. were those companies aware that vice has been playing this game all along and may have factors into their decisions. >> are you saying that other companies do the same. i mean, it sounds to me like it's a fairly common practice. don't you think that these investors are savvy enough to know what they are buying? >> i can't speak for the investors, and it is a common practice. however. you speak with anyone on madison avenue and they will say they are tired of this kind of thing and don't think it's truly
representative of what vice is. >> you are saying it's almost common practice and whose numbers do you think is most inflated out there then? >> i didn't make these numbers up and these are com score numbers. not the only indicator used out there. i'm not suggesting that this is the be all and end all. it is an important indicator. >> we'll leave it there. thanks for your time. appreciate it. the co-editor over at "variety." we reached out to vice for someone from the downto appear on the show and vice declined. let's talk about it. this is interesting, a broader issue, yes, it's common practice, but it raises a question. >> it raises a question, absolutely. if you're an owner of facebook or google let's say they are splitting stuff out across the board. such transparency on those platforms absolutely no risk in being fraudulent from their perspective and i look at it and say if anything comes out of this that's remotely concerning those are the names that are
going to benefit. is it like inflating on vice's part? there could be bundling going on. who notion with the outcome of that is. all of that's platforms will stay premiere. >> they are all grabbing for real estate and the advertisers know they have to be there but the question andrew is raising the issue, what are we paying for and that's a farrish u. it's the wild west. everybody is claiming they have eyeballs and this and that and i'm speaking in vague terms but his point is numbers are being pulled in from many different sporeses to put valuations on companies. disney has made $200 million along with a & e to earn a 20% stake in this. >> 1999 to 2000 all about eyeballs. how many eyeballs do you have out there? it's a paralel to it. >> you've got four ice. j. >> i wouldn't want to
discriminate against pirates? >> on that note i'm sure we've offended some pirates out there. coming up next, the traders will tell you what they are watching for tomorrow. got the final trade coming up next. ♪ in new york state, we believe tomorrow starts today. all across the state, the economy is growing, with creative new business incentives, and the lowest taxes in decades, attracting the talent and companies of tomorrow. like in buffalo, where the largest solar gigafactory in the western hemisphere will soon energize the world. and in syracuse, where imagination is in production. let us help grow your company's tomorrow - today - at business.ny.gov
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time for a little "fast" but not least. last week we told you about a salmon that appeared to be high on substances after researchers found dozens of drugs in their tissues and now a strange story coming to you from nova scotia. take a look at this frequenty-winged fish with glowing green eyes caught by a fisherman. people say the most mysterious creatures live in the water but these cases are downright bizarre. >> yeah. >> that thing is freaky. >> fascination of weird fish. >> it's a delicacy. >> but before we get to the final trade today is the last day of our page sarah and she was part of our "fast money" team. she's leaving for an exciting new project in miami, so thank you very much, sarah, for a fantastic job. time for the final trade. tim in. >> if you look at a lot of charts, fedex is one. there can be a bull r pullback and fundamentals and pullback, sell. >> after the bell gilad got news
of merck combing in and winning a case. i'd be a buyer at 93 bucks. >> karen in. >> foot locker, let it shake out a little and buy under 63. >> b.k.? >> sell financials and good luck, my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to save you some money. my job isn't just to entertain but to keech and coach you. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. or tweet me @jimcramer. sometimes, sometimes it just comes down to figuring out who has pricing power, who can raise prices and who can't.