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tv   Squawk Box  CNBC  April 1, 2016 6:00am-9:01am EDT

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friday, april 1st -- yep, and i don't know if we have anything plans. they already fooled us with the rundown. "squawk box" begins right now. live from new york, where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box." good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. we're counting down to 8:30 a.m. eastern time. that's when we get the march jobs reports. forecasters say the economy probably added 213,000 nonfarms jobs in march. the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.9%. check out the u.s. equity futures. they're down a little ahead of this. the dow was down yesterday by 30-some points. you can see this morning the dow futures are down by about 43 points. s&p futures off by seven. the nasdaq down by 17. that pales in comparison to what we saw in japan overnight. stock there is selling off significantly. check that out.
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the nikkei was down by almost 600 points. that's a decline of 3.5%. among some of the things that were cited was a weak business sentiment result from a survey from the bank of japan. traders also citing weak earnings expectations in the united states. again, 3.5% decline. >> it's not our fault. it's japan. >> i think that's a little separate from what we see here. >> call someone, what do you think? they just come up with that. they didn't hear it from a single trader, i'm sure. oh, how about this? >> well, you saw what's happening in europe. there's a selloff under way there too. some of the indices down by over 1.5%. again, what's happening here in the united states pales in comparison to all this. we only saw things down by 40 points here this morning so far. >> let's give you a little wrap-up on what's happening in the first quarter. it is now officially in the books. it actually was a pretty stunning turnaround for stocks. the last time the dow had a gain like this in a single quarter was more than 82 years ago. the blue chip average fell more than 11% to start the quarter.
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as we all know, it staged a comeback, and a big one at that, finishi ining with a gain of 1. for the three-month period. the s&p 500 rising 0.77% for the dwa quarter. as for commodities, gold had its best quarter since 1986. the nasdaq seeing its first negative q-1 since the financial crisis. it's down 2.75%. also, the dollar rally dissipated with the index seeing its worst quarter since 2010. >> don't rush into this dimon bottom thing. jamie dimon, okay, that was more coincidental and had more to do with jpmorgan's stock. it has more to do with giving confidence. >> he wasn't calling a bottom. >> no, so let's not call it that. the more interesting thing is we never, once again, got the capitulation bottom that every single person was calling for. we said it at the time, you never get that. every single person, there hasn't been any blood on the street. no, no, we need more blood on
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the street. that's why you never catch it. unless it's like something in 2008 where it's 666, how perfect is that on the s&p, but once again it sort of makes just the tenuous bottom -- at least it looks like that initially. then you turn around and it's april 1st and you're saying it's the best recovery in 82 years, when no one really said anything about it. that's the way the market works. but was it really the bottom? that's the thing. there are still higher highs and lower lows. that damon -- damon? matt damon bottom. a rundown is a list of the guests. i said that at the top, that they fooled us with the rundown. for me, it was just a lineup of global warming alarmists. paul krugman was going to be on set for me. the head of media matters was
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going to be here to talk about -- you like everybody. you get along -- >> equal opportunist. >> there is one person they put in there for him. i can't say who. >> why? >> i'll tell you later. >> we can't say yours either. you've had some run-ins. >> yours i thought was a joke and that was the end of that. >> we had spitzer coming on to talk about reputation. >> the disgraced former governor. >> all right. anyway, that was our april -- we both fell for it. >> well, the first thunging, i said, look at your 6:20 lead. look at my 7:40 lead. >> wow, paul krugman is coming back on. i can't believe -- i swore he'd never come on. i'm going to give that to andrew. no, he can't do it because he works there. that won't be objective. i go, okay, i'm just going to do it. i'm going to be nice, but if he says something just totally
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ridiculous, i'm going to have to, right? >> how long did you think about it for? >> not that long. i messaged someone about -- oh, i can't say who. >> just leave the whole thing alone. >> they pranked us the day pfr. >> it's april fools. we haven't planned anything. except these two clowns we're going to put on as experts in a second. no, i'm kidding, drew. drew, love you, man. >> it's okay. i can take it. >> you can't. >> kidding. you guys are great. let's get another -- >> you're just bitter. >> yeah, right. u.s. equity futures down 45 points. weren't that bad earlier. it's a little scary with what's happening in europe right now. i'd be surprised if those are the worst levels. who knows. maybe europe turns around a little bit. oil was down but not significantly. that never helps. actually, it is down now, 70 cents. that almost is 2%. the ten year, mark grant says
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1.25. i don't know what kind of world that is if we're at 1.25. it means the rest of the world doesn't roecover at all. >> and they don't come out of negative interest rates. >> anyone that keeps saying -- any company that has lousy results and says it's because of the stng dollar, that's going to raise eyebrows. >> the huge issue is -- look, the reason they went to negative interest rates, at least the ecb, is because they needed the euro to weaken. it hasn't happened. so even going to negative interest rates hasn't worked that strategy, which how the heck do they get out of negative interest rates at that point? >> some day they should learn that just, you know, when everybody tries to devalue the currency at the same time, it has to be relative to other currencies. if everyone does it, you're getting absolutely nowhere. >> they thought they were doing it as we were raising rates, but we tricked them. >> sort of looked at janet yellen, the dove of all doves. let's check out gold also. looked for a while like it was
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really going to make a run. i'm still thinking about gold. maybe buy a little somewhere. >> you're the one who convinced me years ago not to. when the end of the world comes, which is the only time you're going to need gold, you're not going to be able to use it. >> guns. you need guns to get the gold. >> bingo. >> you didn't do that either. >> we're not preparing for the end of the world. joining us is drew matis. also, benjamin segal. gentlemen, thank you both for being here today. drew, let's start with your expectation for the jobs report. that's what so many people are going to be watching today. >> yeah, so on jobs, we're expecting a nice healthy report above 200,000. unemployment rate coming down. we're also looking for the manufacturing survey that comes out at 10:00 to move back above 50. >> is that ism today? >> the ism today. what that means, in our opinion,
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kind of the recession risk, whatever risk you have at 829, your recession risk should be much lower in the u.s. >> benjamin, if that's the case, what do you think about the stock market? do you agree with that? second of all, where do you value stocks as a result? >> well, my focus is outside the united states. the u.s. economy clearly looks healthy. but the rest of the world has got this advantage of coming off relatively low exchange rates. we're seeing the recovery in the euro in particular. we've seen the yen snap back. so for us, domestic equities outside the u.s. actually look quite compelling. >> what happened with japan overnight? a decline of 3.5%. that's a significant wake-up call. >> that is a significant wake-up call. you're seeing the yen strengthen from the 120s into the low teens. we know the challenges that japan has with its demographics,
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with its debt. i think the yen has to go weaker. our focus is on japanese businesses that export out of japan but with the strength in the yen, that's obviously been challenging for them. i think it's perhaps a contrarian opportunity to take a closer look at those names. >> although, we were just talking about the idea of these countries trying to race to the bottom with their currencies. as long as the u.s. federal reserve is on hold, that's going to make that very difficult. we're not making their jobs any easier. >> absolutely. i think certainly for the time being, maybe not forever, but we're -- we've reached some sort of level. the euro was at 1.35. it's now at 1.14. >> it was also at 1.05. >> it hit a bottom. that was obviously extremely inexpensive. still, at 1.14, it's pretty compelling. >> even if rates don't move from here, you like these overseas stocks relative to the united states just based whereon the currencies stand. >> i think that move has been
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overblown. whereas historically we've been overwhelmingly focused on the exporters, the benefit from the stronger dollar, i think the stronger dollar takes a pause here so it's safe to take a closer look at the domestic businesses. if you get the ongoing currency strength out of the u.s., that could be an interesting transaction. >> drew, let's just talk a little bit about what the fed sees. when janet yellen spoke earlier this week, she painted a picture that's very different than the economic outlook that you just talked about. she talked about concerns. she's very bothered by what she sees around the globe right now. can the united states economy continue to chug along, even with all of these global concerns? >> we seem to have been doing a good job so far. i think that's the fist thing. the second thing is, you know, the forecasts that we're looking at are pretty much what the fed was looking at last december when they said they were going to hike four times. all the sudden they cut that down to two really for no good
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reason. when clients ask me why janet yellen did what she did in march and they didn't go in march, my answer is because she wanted to. if you try to put it into a model, the numbers don't work. >> you think she's just wrong? >> i think she's wrong. i think she overestimates the importance of zero rates and stimulating the economy. you know that i believe higher rates would actually be good right now. it would also take pressure off the rest of the world. that's where she gets it wrong. the one bank that's most offsides in the global economy today is the federal reserve. and it's creating stresses across the world. >> so it would take pressure off the rest of the world, which in turn would help us, or do we care about the rest of the world? >> longer term, it would help us. anything that's good for the u.s. economy for the next three months is probably going to be bad over the next three years. if we want to get out of this, we have to stabilize growth in the rest of the world, which means exporting some growth. >> that's a really different mandate for the federal reserve.
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worrying about growth in every country. >> they're doing that now, but they're looking at it on a very short-term basis. >> benjamin, if you had one country to pick, what would it be? is it japan? you like europe better? >> i like the u.k. at the moment. i've been pretty much a skeptic on japan. domestically, i think the companies are relatively uninteresting. we like the robotics manufacturers and all the people in the supply chain there that get into smart manufacturing. for me with sterling where it is, with all of this concern around brexit -- >> does that mean you don't think a brexit is happening? >> i think that's got to be the central scenario. even if it does, a lot of the selloff in the sterling is due to the uncertainty. whether you have brexit or don't on june 24th, wooerl kne'll kno. just the removal of that uncertainty is positive for sterling. the selloff has been overdone,
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and u.k. is my number one at the moment. >> benjamin and drew, thank you for coming in today. good to see you. >> let's talk a little politics. donald trump attended a closed door meeting with rnc chairman reince priebus. john harwood joins us now with more. >> reporter: andrew, donald trump has an issue on his hands because his own behavior has made his front runner status a little shakier than it ought to be. he's got a big primary coming up in wisconsin. the question is going to be, can he gets those delegates he needs for a first-ballot nomination, and is there going to be maneuvering to keep delegates from him? he was talking at the rnc with reince priebus and aides about how they're going to relate over the convention. donald trump put a good face on it, but of course they've been fighting recently. donald trump said he wasn't going to be bound by his pledge to support the republican nominee because he thought he'd been treated unfairly by the party. this is an opportunity for reince priebus and his aides to
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explain the rules and talk about how it's going to work, talk about how it may work after the convention if donald trump is the nominee. there wasn't a lot of detail about the outcome of the meeting, but donald trump is trying to hold on here. dealing with the party with some level of diplomacy, which he hasn't shown so far, is going to be important in uniting the party. we've got the new york primary and others in the northeast where donald trump is stronger. >> john, how do they deal with idea that everybody has walked back that they're going to support whoever the nominee is? has he ginn up on that, priebus? >> reporter: you know, i think it's not all that important. what john kasich does or what ted cruz does. >> matters what trump does. >> reporter: i think the more important thing is how does the
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republican party as a whole, how do the voters react to it. if donald trump can run the table and win the rest of these primaries and get nominated, that's going to show he's got fairly strong support within the party. parties tend to come together because they have to after fractious fights. we saw that with president obama and hillary clinton. though, this is something that's much more intense and difficult than anything the democrat experienced in 2008. but republicans have got a big problem in 2016 regardless. if donald trump isn't the nominee, you've got a big risk of fracture. but the fracture comes less from the top, from the voters. >> trump doesn't have wisconsin radio. those guys, i don't think of them as establishment republicans. i think of them as sort of populist type guys. they're with cruz. cruz is ahead in wisconsin. the one guy that could probably
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keep most of trump's supporters -- let's say that cruz gets a plurality, beats trump. >> reporter: looks likely based on what we know now. >> just in wisconsin. >> not just in wisconsin. you need a bunch of winner take all states. >> reporter: i'm sorry, joe. are you saying a plurality of all the delegates? >> is that possible? that all the sudden cruz becomes the front runner? >> reporter: quite unlikely. >> so trump's got it. >> he needs like 90%. >> reporter: it's very likely, joe that, trump will have a lead going into the convention, but if the lead is 1150 or 1200 and you don't have 1237, that's when the scramble comes on. that's where you have the real potential of fracture. that's where donald trump and his people would say, hey, wait a minute, we're first. we just got a little bit to go. all these people are trying to snatch delegates from us. of course, if we get to a second
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ballot, you've got a real free for all because the cruz campaign is better organized, more connected to the republican -- >> i think if it was cruz, you could keep some of those trump guys. >> is there any irony if the fact trump has done no official fundraising for the rnc at all, and some of these other guys clearly have? >> reporter: well, i think that'll change. i think one of the things that was discussed in the meeting, you don't know, is donald trump really going to try to sell finance in a general election? i don't think so. >> no, he couldn't. >> reporter: most of the indications we've gotten is he's going to take public money, and he's going to have to coordinate with the rnc. he hired a few days ago a long-time republican operative to deal with the republican party on the convention and beyond. that's one of the things they're going to have to work out, exactly how that's going to work. typically, a nominee kind of
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takes over the party structure and it becomes an extension of the campaign. >> there's a piece about bernie sanders. the great irony is you have people like bernie sanders saying we don't want to take this dirty money. yet, if they became the nominee, all the money that someone like hillary clinton has already raised for the party ultimately goes to him, unless he says he doesn't want to touch it. >> okay. we get to go. john, it's autism speaks. we're trying to figure out what shade of blue to wear. at least i was. >> duke? >> no, it's not duke. >> unc. >> that's why i'm bringing it up for john. great piece on your favorite team, the tarheels, on how they settled on a new type of blue different than what michael jordan wore. it's called pantone 542. we all struggle with what shade of blue to wear for autism speaks day. tallest buildings in the world are all going to be blue today. bob wright was on yesterday. bob and suzanne, very active in this, our former boss.
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great piece in the journal about how north carolina fans probably won't all be wearing the right shade because there's a new shade. i know you just can't talk about north carolina enough. that's why i brought it up for you today. they look strong. >> reporter: they look very strong. they're the favorite to win the final four. i wouldn't sleep on villanova. i think they look pretty tough. >> they do, but -- >> it's going to be very difficult for syracuse to beat carolina. >> john, just admit it, he's such a nudge. >> i like buddy. >> reporter: joe, i don't bring the hate. >> but you have a favorite north carolina team. the state is not big enough. >> reporter: i have a favorite north carolina team, but i don't hate the other north carolina team. >> all right. you're so pc.
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all right. thanks, john. i was happy about this. the chinese company is not going to get that great american asset. anbang walking away from its 14 million bid for starwood hotels. what they're saying about that move next. stay with us. stay in the family. the great american family. helping to make america great again. plus, a fast food stock on the fast track. mcdonald's trading at all-time highs. we'll talk to an analyst about the company's remarkable turnaround. asp) shark diving! xerox personalized employee portals help companies make benefits simple and accessible... from anywhere. hula dancing? cliff jumping! human resources can work better. with xerox. which allergy? eees. bees? eese. trees? eese.
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call or go onliand switch to x1. only with xfinity. welcome back to "squawk box." china's anbang insurance group walked away from its planned $14 billion offer for starwood hotels and resorts. eunice yoon joins us with more. >> reporter: it finally looked as though anbang was going to be in a position to close the deal. suddenly, it pulled the plug. nobody really knows why. in a statement late yesterday, the company said that the reason was because they were considering market -- because of various market considerations.
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but at the same time, today in china we put in a burch of calls to the company, nobody was answering the phones, and we finally got some clarification later in the day when one of its partners that is funding the deal or was funding the deal, a private equity firm, said that the company just didn't want to get involved in a long, drawn-out battle. he also said anbang has a strong financial position, but at the same time, it has to be on the right terms. now, there have been long-standing concerns among shareholders and investors about whether or not anbang would be able to fund this deal. the financial structure is very confusing and murky. even by chooe these standards, anbang is considered mysterious. what we do know about the company is it's very well politically connected. the chairman is married to the granddaughter of the late paramount leader. in fact, the chairman was trying to address some of the financial issues earlier this week by speaking to the chinese press in a very rare interview, where he said the assets of anbang are in
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excess of 1 trillion. still, investors are concerned about the murky structure. even so, the talk here is that anbang might not have been facing regulatory issues in the united states, but it could actually have faced regulatory issues back at home. that's because foreign investment for chinese insurers is limited to 15% of an insurer's total assets. as you guys know, anbang has been on a massive global buying spree. so that has been one of the big concerns for them going forward. >> thank you, eunice. that's exactly what we're hearing on this side of the pond. there were questions about whether the u.s. government would have let this deal go through. it was an issue, by the way, that even folks close to starwood and others had been trying to raise throughout this. we should say now that the battle is over, it now paves the
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way for marriott to officially buy starwood. marriott's ceo will joining us here on the set at 7:10 a.m. eastern time to talk about the company's bid and the deal. >> see how happy he was on that shot of him there? >> you got that from yesterday? >> his commentary afterwards was very upbeat. >> can we see that shot again? is that too much to ask? look at that. woo-hoo! >> what i want to ask him is whether he should have ever had to raise any of the bids. >> that's what i mean. they jacked up the bid by a billion dollars. you wonder if they're ticked off by that. >> and whether anbang could have ever gone through with it to start with. >> we don't know whether it was cheap or expensive to start with. cramer might know. >> cramer said it was a giveaway. but because of the other player, they definitely had to pay more. >> i'm saying if the player never existed -- >> it's not that much more. >> a billion dollars? >> yeah, a billion dollars on 14. >> pocket change.
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>> chump change. >> i don't know. >> we have guys that are worth that much. >> a billion dollars sounds like a lot to me. >> mcdonald's playing catch up. investors are loving it. stock trading at all-time highs back to its -- i don't know what that even means? i have november idea wh idea wh. it's at an all-time high. its ipo was in 1965. it's not just the golden arches getting a boost. >> an all-time high for a company that started trading a few years ago is different than one that's been out there for forever, i guess. >> no, it's not. >> sounds interesting. >> sonic and wendy's are also higher, both up more than 10% in the last month. joining us now is bob derrington. looking at some of your
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comments, bob, i thought they got back to where they are by minding their ps and qs and just doing it better and fresher and faster. i look at some of the stuff you're talking about, and this looks like the same thing that got them off track in the first place. what is this stuff they're going to start trying -- egg white and turkey breakfast bowl? what is this other stuff? signature crafted burgers topped with pico guacamole, maple bacon dijon, sweet barbecue bacon. they have all this weird stuff they're going to introduce. so they haven't stopped innovating. >> listen, to be fair, happy april fools' day. those things i mentioned within that piece i sent -- >> that's april fools? >> no, no, no. >> oh, i thought that's what -- bob, you're a card, you need to be dealt with. it sounds like a pc april fools'
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joke, but it's not. >> it is not. to be fair, like we've talked about, there's a new sheriff in town. what that means is that easter brook is doing his homework. he's not going to just throw something out in the marketplace and hope it works. they're testing a lot of thungs. they're testing things to make the brand far more relevant to a more broad audience than just those who use the brand at this point in time. given the success they've had early on, i wouldn't bet against some of those things. >> and everybody is up, as you point out. fast food across the board is doing pretty well. all of them doing pretty well. i like your analysis. it's because everybody's working now. there's no unemployment. so everybody needs fast fuel on the rise. they're getting their fast fuel from fast food, right? >> well, to be fair, listen, a rising tide is lifting all these fast foods. >> except for jack in the box. >> yeah, they're the laggard, but they're playing catch up with some of the promotional
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things they're doing recently. to be fair, everyone has been on top of the game within the big five brands, the hamburger brands, over this past year. some of the best comps we've seen for this group in literally well over a decade. going forward, i think, you know, there's clearly a broader consumer base who is using these restaurants, like you said, for fast fuel, as well as if you look at the millennial generation coming on, they're adding another 80 million-plus consumers who are feeding within this fast food trough, so to speak. >> i thought the millennials didn't like fast food. has that changed? >> listen, to be fair, specifically more often than not you'll see them gravitate towards a chipotle, for example, or a starbucks. but when you only have pennies in your pocket, typically with these deals going on right now, you can literally -- they're bringing in a lot of consumers that may or may not have found their brands to be relevant before, including kids like mine. >> you say the face of
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mcdonald's is changing dramatically, but it still appeals to everyone. that kills you, i know, because it's not pc. there's no kale. what is the pc? millennials are not just in this country. millennials across europe don't feel bad about going to mcdonald's. it does have that pc stigma. they haven't seen that movie where the guy gets fat. >> no, it's because you go to the mcdonald's in europe and it looks clean and the food seems -- >> what are you saying the ones here look like? what does that mean? it looks dirty here? >> oftentimes they do. >> what else did you say here? it's a melting pot for consumers. it's not just up here or down here. >> it's for everybody. the coffee stuff. >> mike bloomberg is just going, ugh. >> the five big players have really figured out how to
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segment the market and nows can on the consumer that is most relevant to their brand. that's a big change, i think, in the marketing of these businesses over the last decade or so. it's clearly -- there's a little bit different niche for each one of those five. >> did you see yesterday -- if you're at a school -- they got pictures of kids eating these michelle obama school lunches. they throw them away because it's like cauliflower and broccoli. the kids aren't even eating them. if you don't serve the right stuff at the school, your going to get fined now. you won't get the money you get for lunches. >> yeah, it's a good idea. >> really, to serve cauliflower the kids aren't eating anyway? >> trust me, as somebody who makes lunches, you figure out quickly what they won't eat. >> mcdonald's is back. thanks, bob. see you later. everything i say today might be april fools. i can say anything i want. >> you do that every day. when we come back, tesla unveiling its affordable
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in new york state, we believe tomorrow starts today. all across the state, the economy is growing, with creative new business incentives, and the lowest taxes in decades, attracting the talent and companies of tomorrow. like in buffalo, where the largest solar gigafactory in the western hemisphere will soon energize the world. and in syracuse, where imagination is in production. let us help grow your company's tomorrow - today - at business.ny.gov welcome back to "squawk box". time now for the executive edge. elon musk taking the wraps off the highly anticipated model 3
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late last night. almost like an opening for a video game. the affordable tesla, some are calling it, happened at 11:30 last night. phil lebeau joins us with a look at how important this is. >> it's huge, andrew. the early demand for the model 3 in terms o of the number of reservations. as of this morning, more than 150,000 people around the world have put down a thousand dollar deposit to get one of these vehicles. this is the model 3. as you mentioned, they unveiled it late last night in hawthorne, california. a couple of things to know about the model 3. the range, a full-powered range, once it's fully charged, 215 miles. so that's how far you can go fully powered. delivery starting late next year. base price, $35,000. here's musk last night. >> it'll be $35,000. [ cheers and applause ]
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and i want to emphasize, even if you buy it no options at all, this will still be an amazing car. you will not be able to buy a better car for $35,000. >> i bet you will hear that a lot as they bring this vehicle to market. take a look at annual deliveries for tesla. this is crucial. remember, this year tesla has said that it'll get between 80,000 and 90,000 vehicles delivered. then as we see the model 3 come online, we'll see those numbers go up dramatically from there. last night musk talked about these deliveries of the model 3 and the fact they will begin, he promises, next year. >> so when are deliveries? well, they're next year. [ cheers and applause ] so i do feel fairly confident that it will be next year, yeah. [ laughter ] >> i love the laughter afterwards. if they can hit that target and deliver the first model 3s late
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next year, that's really the next catalyst people will be pointing to in the future. take a look at shares of tesla. guys, the notes are already out this morning. they're blown away by how much demand is out there already for the model 3. again, the early indication, at least 150,000 people have put down a $1,000 deposit. it's fully refundable, but andrew, i've covered this business for a number of years. it's one thing when companies say we got hand raisers, people who are interested. it's far different when you have somebody who will say, sure, here's a thousand dollars. and somewhere down the road, i will probably order this vehicle. >> right. >> wow. it's amazing to me there's only about 100,000 of these on the road right now. i feel like i've seen a lot of them. but there's only 100,000 of them on the road. >> costs a lot. >> are you talking about overall? >> overall, just looking at the numbers of the deliveries from 2012 through now. >> right, right. but remember, you're in the primary market, one of the primary markets here in the
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united states. most of them are in california. but you've got the east coast as another big market. >> phil, how much development still due on that car? some folks apparently took rides last night. tesla was driving people back and forth. there's only one screen in the entire car. it's a 15-inch screen in the middle. there is no dashboard. it's all on this one screen. there were some questions about whether it would end up being a head heads-up display. >> look at this as a pretty good indication of what the model 3 will eventually look like. it will be tweaked before the first deliveries happen. don't be surprised if that front configuration you see now will be different by the time it gets to delivery. >> phil, what's a supercharger do? how long does a supercharger take for a full charge? >> i'd have to look. i think it's about 20 minutes right now, joe. i don't know at the latest. >> you can charge one of these cars in -- >> or you get 80% to 85% in 20
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minutes and a full charge in a half hour. i'd have to double check on that. they keep on bringing that time down rather quickly. it's one of those things that they believe is a true difference maker in terms of people saying, look, if i buy one of these, i don't want to be sitting here charging this at a charging station for 45 minutes or so. tesla is saying, no, that's not going to happen. >> 20 minutes? that's less than becky's land yacht to put gas in it. >> no. it's fine. it does not take that much gas. >> like 80 gallons. >> especially not at two bucks a gallon. >> that is amazing. 215 miles, 20 minutes. that's a game changer. >> i've heard the cars are really save. >> the battery technology, the charging technology, not just for tesla, but all evs, it's coming down dramatically. >> that's cool. i don't know what the physical constraints on that are. i wish i knew. it would be cool if it was just instantaneous. we can put a man on the moon,
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damn it. why can't we charge immediately? is there anything faster than a microwave? that's what homer says. he's got nine seconds to go on something. doh! isn't there anything faster? anyway, thanks. coming up, banking sector jobs could shrink by 30% in the next ten years. cue the bernie sanders cheers. that's according to citigroup. we're going to tell you why next. and the ft's martin wolf joins us to talk banking, the odds of a brexit, and security in europe. as we head to break, here's a quick check on what's happening in the european markets. that's sort of affecting us over here in the states as well. all red arrows.
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welcome back to "squawk box." a new report out from citigroup saying that technology in the banking sector could cost 2 million workers their jobs. it's all about the rise of financial technology, the sort of uberization of the industry. here to talk about that scary headline, at least scary to some, and more on what's going on in europe and elsewhere, martin wolf, the chief editorial commentator at the "financial times." great to see you this morning. let's start with the tech issue, then i want to talk about your views on brexit and what's going on in europe and some of the security issues. when you look at that citi report, and you've written about the financial industry for so long, should we be happy or upset about what technology may ultimately do to the industry? >> well, first of all, it seems to be quite plausible i think this is an industry whose activities are not likely to grow very much over the next
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decade. they're about as big as they can get. technology has tremendous potential for improving productivity. if you're in the industry, it's bad news. i think for the rest of us, it's terrific news. this is an industry which seems to me to have incredibly high costs. the costs have not been falling. there's lots of evidence of unbelievably low productivity growth. just amazing. which is ripe for technological destruction, or reconstruction. it's happened to the music business. why not to finance, which is sort of sitting there almost like a great big sitting duck? >> martin, i've tried to think about some of the ripple effects. you probably can't see us necessarily through the screen, but if you're right here right now, across the street literally on every corner is a banking branch. there's a td ameritrade over there. there's a chase just down the street. the reason i say that is not only are those jobs up for grabs, but the real estate value
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is up for grabs because so many of these places -- and this is not just true in new york, but across the globe. you see it where you are in london. what happens? >> well, if an industry declines, and there have been massive declines in industries, of course, over the last 150 years, something else grows. i have no idea what will grow, but what seems to me so important in the case of finance is, you're right, of course there will be big adjustments, but this is an intermediating function. the job of finance is to collect money from the public at large and use it productively and efficiently to ensure people. if that is done much more efficiently than it has been done in my view in the past, dramatically inefficiently, in fact, it must be good for the rest of the economy. the gainers, i think, will outweigh the losers massively. it's a tremendous potential, but of course it will be disruptive just as it has been so disruptive for the media.
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>> martin, real quick. given what happened in brussels and all of the security issues in europe, how has that impacted the conversation in the u.k. about a brexit, and how has it changed your handicap of what may or may not happen? >> i don't think it's dramatic, though it's another element in the sort of for brexit. it depends whether there are many more. i still think the migration issue, what happens as it were with the migration season coming up, the scale of the numbers coming into europe will be a far bigger issue, unless there are a lot more of these. remember, the british are quite used to terrorism. we had decades with it with the ira and people, to some degree, shrug their shoulders about it. >> i know we have different market prognostications on it, but your bet is no, doesn't happen. >> my bet is that it's somewhere
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sort of 5-3 against. the likelihood, we'll take the conservative position and stay in. >> okay. we'll take that to the bank. martin wolf, great to see you. >> it's a great pleasure. >> pleasure. when we come back, will this be the summer of zika. fears are rising as mosquito season draws near. government officials have gathered in atlanta to help prepare the american public. know you have insights from professional investment strategists to help set your mind at ease. know that planning for retirement can be the least of your worries. with the guidance of a pnc investments financial advisor, know you can get help staying on track for the future you've always wanted. i'm spending too muchs for time hiringnter. and not enough time in my kitchen. (announcer) need to hire fast?
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welcome back, everyone. fears are rising this is the summer of sticka across america. today official from the cdc, white house, local health and human service are in atlanta to come with a game plan combat the virus. meg has more on the story. >> reporter: hundreds of state and local officials are headed to atlanta for this summit to prepare for when zika comes to the u.s. and potentially starts spreading more broadly. let's take a look where zika is spreading right now. we have a map showing 33 countries and territories in the americas where zika is spreading locally via the mosquito. that's concentrated in brazil and colombia but it is spreading. why do we worry about zika? symptoms are considered mild and most people might not know they have zika. because it's been linked to this birth defect known as micro
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microencephaly. we had traveller associated cases coming into the united states from folks who have been in these countries. we don't have transmission via the mosquito yet. that's what preparations today are for. this is carried by this mosquito. we have a map of u.s. cities considered to be potentially at risk. for you this is an analysis done by the national center for atmospheric research. they looked at cities where the mosquito exists as well as a number of travellers coming back from those cities. southern cities like miami, houston, orlando really are most at risk. we have a big circle over new york city and the size of that circle is related to how many travellers are coming back in. we should have a lot more on this today including an
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interview with tom freiedenfrie. >> is there a vaccine coming. by the summer, especially given the weather, how hot it will get new york could be affected. >> reporter: it's not only possible that cities could be affected. in term of the vaccine folks think we can get a vaccine into early testing this year. that's several years potentially. the focus needs to be controlling the mosquito. >> what are we doing for testing. if we find out if there's an outbreak here when we find out babies are born with this. >> reporter: the new york public health department is looking at this very closely. >> are any tests being done? only one in five people show symptoms. >> reporter: right. people in those areas where they had it, would test if they had symptoms like it and pregnant women can be vigilant.
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coming up, the jobs report just out in 90 minutes. we'll talk about it and bring the number back in a moment. tme, we believe in the power of active management. we actively manage with expertise and conviction. so you can invest with more certainty. mfs. that's the power of active management. on top of your health?ay ahh... ahh... cigna customers have plan choices
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>> announcer: live from the beating heart of business, new york city. this is "squawk box". welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc, first in business worldwide. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. let's check out the futures at this hour. they have been weaker this morning. right now the dow futures are still down by 50 points. s&p futures off by eight. nasdaq down by 19 follows some slight declines yesterday. all the gains that had been building up and put the market at new highs. oil prices this morning you'll see wti is under some additional pressure. down by 2.4%. back to $38 a barrel at 37.41. some headlines making news. standard & poor has cut its outlook for china's credit rating. the government reform agenda is moving slower than expected.
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activity last month will help send china stocks down more than 1%. we'll be looking ahead to jobs friday in a moment but there's a slew of economic data out today in addition to those numbers. u.s. automakers will be out with marsalis figures, also going to get the ism manufacturing index and construction spending, also consumer sentiment. david tepper as raised its take in terraform power. there was a lawsuit saying some directors breached their fiduciary duties. >> jobs friday. less than 90 minutes away from the march jobs report. the consensus forecast are looking for 213,000 new nonfarm jobs. steve liesman is here to join us with more on what to watch in today's numbers. >> good morning. a lot to watch. we're heading in to this jobs
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numbers with convincing evidence the strength of the job market will continue but questions about whether the good times can continue to roll on. here are the estimates. 213 versus 242 last month. unemployment rate look to remain unchanged. just a little piece of data. more than 75% of the time since january 14th the number has been 200,000 or higher. that's 20 of 26 months. the unemployment rate 4.9%. average hourly wages growing 0.3 compared to 0.1. here are the strong thing. strong trend. claims suggests 200,000. adp spot on. and we've had mild weather. the nfib, used tube very good predictor. it's disjointed right now or become unconnected with the payrolls right now. growth numbers don't suggest anywhere near. labor for growth we're watching
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and we're watching hours worked. he said it was a negative report last month because of hours worked decline and we're watching wages. jpmorgan rying the pace of job gain will slow but expect solid job growth to be reported for march. we have potential payback but the weather remain unusually mild in march. bill dudley last night aligned himself with janet yellen's cautious approach to raising interest rates. i'm listening today, guys, cleveland fed president speaks. i think she's an inner hawk who is not allowed that to come out. >> she sounds more hawkish. >> former research director for charlie plosser. if she says the word april today that will be six. >> who have dissented. >> not quite dissented but
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suggested april after a fed chair suggested anything but. >> happy april fools' day. >> i'm on tv instantly. if she says april. >> she could say april in the context of -- did you skip yesterday? >> was that yesterday? >> arthur was on -- >> i've been texting with ed over the -- >> everybody is going wow i watched that yesterday. you skipped through that. >> we're launching a research project based on our conversation yesterday. >> on wednesday. >> i texted him yesterday. >> don't confuse me. >> i don't know what day it is. >> just read the prompter. >> that how i do this. >> stick around. for more on the markets and economy ahead of the jobs report let's bring in our guest host
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rerebecca patterson. >> i was worried i was a joke. >> had to be a legitimate name. >> okay. she's cio of a trust and a cnbc contributor. >> thank you for that introduction. we are. >> even invested in the same sentence. he'll sue me for something. rebecca, there's no april. >> no. >> two more this year? >> there might be. there might be. >> mark grant said 1.25 where the ten year is going. >> i think june is very much live. >> it is? >> more than 50% priced in. i think the fed would be happier if we got closer to 65%, 70% before they pull the trigger. a decent payroll data today would help.
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personally i think it's unlikely you get something before the election. so maybe one at year end. >> even with the 242 and rip roaring supposedly jobs numbers and the gdp can't get out of its own way. >> yellen speech on wednesday and everybody was there. steve there was. i was there. it was interesting she did emphasize this was a personal view. or maybe he wasn't there. you're always there. >> he was there in spirit. >> he's always there in spirit if the fed is involved. anyway yellen said even though the unemployment rate was 4.9 she felt there was a lot of slack in the market whether you're look at the participation rate or broader measure of unemployment which is still at 10%. she's not ignoring their mandate but taking it with a healthy grain of salt. >> if she wanted to go in june and wanted to get the market's expectations built up she didn't do it.
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>> let's not overreact, because what we've seen from the fed in the last several years is replaying over and over again. they threaten to go to the exit. we saw it in the taper tan tum. then they hesitate because the data or markets don't cooperate. we saw that 2019. few months later they feel comfortable. they go. they did the same thing last fall. they are doing the same thing now. they want more information. i don't think this is any different than the situation we were in last fall when you had a big market correction, fed got very nervous. sounding super dovish. the markets last fall priced the fed fourth december initially, so they are not going to go. they are so dovish they will never go. the fed said wait a second. >> here's the question about weak gdp growth and strong job numbers. which one is right? >> there are two stories going on here. one is we're just in a mediocre growth world now.
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we're a 2% economy. not the 3% economy. gdp numbers earliare erratic. as you pointed out in your comments the payroll numbers are steady as a rock. every quarter we get a 2% annualized increase in payrolls. i tend to put more waeight on te payrolls on a short term basis because they are steady and easier to measure. >> do you think these numbers, these gdp numbers will be revised higher and we're in a stronger growth environment than the gdp numbers indicate. >> we did a piece a few months ago showing that historically when you get this kind of gap between payrolls and gdp the closing is from the gdp side. >> rebecca one of the big plays right now, it's a groundhog day play in the sense here we are again. we're likely to have another weak first quarter.
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but you have made money in the last several years banking on a second quarter rebound. now i don't remember being in a situation where corporate profits were quite as challenged as they are right now but are you sitting here positioning yourself that the data will turn around from a growth standpoint and from a corporate profit standpoint another second quarter rebound story? >> there's a base effect with earnings we'll see better numbers on the corporate side over the next couple of quarters. in the short time a lot will depend on oil. we got headlines from saudi arabia they will no longer freeze production. >> here we go again. >> if you get another leg lower in oil you might bet nor corporate volatility and more nervous guidance. but i do think if oil is near to finding a floor, whether we're there or not we're close to finding a bottom. more stable oil. more stable dollar which is a change in our view over the last month. i think we'll be reducing some head winds we've had and china is looking better. pmi numbers out of china out
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before 50 on manufacturing. it didn't erase any long term challenges but the short term picture looks better. q4 was revised, q1 gdp could get revised up. it's not as bad as some people feel. >> sorry, ethan you have to go. we'll have more from rebecca. in just a little bit. when we return they got engaged, broke up and yes now they are getting back together and marriott winning the bid for starwood. we'll joined by the ceo of marriott, arne sorenson. and which candidate has the best plan for the economy. and how prepared is your company for a cyber attack? the numbers will shock you.
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box". walking away. the company exiting it's $14 billion bid to buy starwood capping off a bidding war. quite the soap opera. clearing the way for the other bidder marriott international. joining us now is the winner of this contest, marriott's
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president, arne sorenson. we should congratulate you in a year or two when this all works. given that they walked away and given there were so many questions about that bidder to begin with, do you look and say we just ponied up a billion dollars more than we had to. >> we would have loved to have this company for a billion dollars less. but they were real with their first bid. they came in at $78 a share. 10, 11% more than the deal we had on the table. fully financed. no conditions. we had a note from starwood that was out. >> it was just the last bid. >> just the last bid. we never talked to anbang. >> do you want to speculate? >> they decided not to go forward. >> we had news from china saying inside the country there's questions about whether regulators in china were
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prepared to let them go forward with a higher bid, not here. >> lord knows. we have no insight to that. what anbang has said it's expensive. to be fair it's worth more to us in some respects because we got immediately $250 million in negotiations. so we're paying lower than what they were paying. they had no existing business. >> what does that mean when you say cross synergies you can eliminate on one side or another. >> basically overhead costs. we can combine these with broader distribution. we think there's tremendous upside. >> so now that you've won, the challenge is, of course, putting this all together. >> right. >> which creates its own risk. you look at the combination, you think the highest execution risk is what? >> the most important thing for us to succeed at is the loyalty program. you got with sbg and marriott
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rewards two big groups. >> i don't lose my points. >> we got to make sure you're enthusiastic. >> a lot of reports among the groupies who are worried about this. >> from the moment we announced they said what's happening to my points. will it get better, will it get worse. now i think we can make sure benefits stay the same if not get better but offer them a broader selection of places to stay. >> how long does that take to roll that out. should we see an outcome on this in three months, six months, a year. >> i hope we can do things quickly. we have amex and jpmorgan chase visa. we got two different time share companies. we got to work through all this. >> it's been under quite some pressure. are you going to stick with ten or go with jamie or can you have both? >> one of the great things about this deal when we first announced it in november is i
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had, i heard from jamie dimon within hours and others from hours. it gives you a sense of the interest of these companies in what we do. they are all good partners of ours and we'll work through with them. >> a year two from now do you have to pick sides? >> in some areas we'll pick sides and some areas we won't have to pick sides. again, we'll involve our customers in this. these loyal customers are the primary reason for doing this deal so we want to make sure they feel good about it. >> cancellations in brussels? >> in brussels. >> rome. >> much less so. you get a little softness. obviously you end up with much more visible police presence in all the european capitals in the last week or two. sadly we've been through this a little bit before. we would expect this will be, you know, a few weeks, maybe a couple of months, and then folks
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will start to come back. there's another event. >> what do policymakers need to do here and in europe. what if there are 300, 400 more guys they brought back. >> they got to share data. you think about the u.s. knowing who these folks were in brussels and brussels not knowing who they were. we got to get to a place where governments are coordinated. >> how about security? >> we have a code level in every market around the world and some which are potentially red. we are searching information before they get to the hotel grounds. >> trouble spots. >> in an event like this, we will elevate the threat code. >> do you share information? meaning you have the bookings so you know who are supposed to be coming. you have the credit card. you should know who is coming going where. does that information get shared with governments or security officials?
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>> usually not. i mean in a particular market where there's been a rumor maybe of an event happening, the government, local authorities probably would tell us something and they would be on the ground some effort to coordinate and make sure hearing what we can hear. >> what happened in paris bookings after brussels. how long did it take for the paris bookings to come back up after november. >> so that was mid-november, i think. and they probably dropped 20% to 25%. >> have they stabilized. >> in january, mid-january the team there was starting to see light that they are come back. by february, march before brussels we were probably running down high single digits from the year before. >> what happened after brussels did it change any? >> i don't have data for paris afterwards. i'm sure it didn't help. >> is there any intent to collapse some of the brands because of the opportunity in terms of the synergy or to rename certain properties from
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an advertising perspective you actually instead of having to advertise so many different brands you can do just a couple of them? >> generally no. remember we advertise often through this loyalty platform so we're not necessarily marketing each of 30 different brands with its own separate marketing funds. we got separate owners at each of these hotels. our contracts are long term. we manage. we don't tend to have the fright you're a hotel owner to say we just decided to to change the brand name on your hotel to something else. that would be something that really you had to work through with a collection of owners. i think instead we'll try to do it. we try to drive distinctions between brands. >> that's interesting. which of the brands do you think are too close right now? >> well, i think in the broad -- let's take an easy one. ritz-carlton and saints regis two strong luxury brands. they have been competing against each other.
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ritz-carlton is a bigger brands than st. regis. a bit better known than st. regis. we think there's plenty of room for those luxury brands. >> when you do -- it's interesting -- >> we'll have to find some things around product cues, service cues that say here you know you're in a st. regis. >> any ritz-carlton or st. regis. >> i'm a hotel snob and you know it. >> you are a leader of not just the company but you're a leader and written on anti-discrimination measures. you were 100 to sign the north carolina bill. what's going to happen in north carolina? is there a threat, an implied threat from the 100 ceos of what's going to happen? what would you do in north carolina if this doesn't get repealed. >> be very interesting to see how this moves. you saw particularly in the lbgt area a massive shift towards
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acceptance in hospitality and there's a counter wave in some places and you got customers who vote with their feet. when we spoke up in indiana we were getting cancelations from groups that were saying why should we hold our meeting in indiana. indiana moved quickly to say, you know what? we don't want that label on our hospitality, on our culture. what happens in north carolina exactly who knows. there will be some politicians who are, i think, not terribly bright who think that they can put a stake in the ground and be proud of this. i think they will hurt business in their state. >> up saw georgia, the governor vetoed that immediately. i read every where "huffington post" georgia governor vetoes. never once. georgia's gop governorever -- oh, no. that goes against the narrative. it wasn't a democrat that did it. >> that's right. very thoughtful guy who said -- >> it goes across.
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i hate those stereotypes. >> one question real quickly. marriott shares came under pressure yesterday when anbang announced it is pulling out. what do your shareholders not like about this? >> i think they like this deal. >> stock went up and down. >> you have some technical things. we announced to short marriott and long starwood. the shorts covered at times. we had some short positions being reimposed last night. obviously there was some likelihood that possibility that anbang would increase its offer so the starwood pressure is there to -- you can't look at this on certainly after hours trading. this is what have we achieved long term and we're thrilled. >> come on back. congratulations. coming up, jobs and the road to the white house. which candidate has the right plans to create jobs? we'll debate.
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i don't know if we'll debate it. i guess we will. to bring our best thinking to their investments so in a variety of market conditions... you can feel confident... ...in our experience. call a t. rowe price retirement specialist or your advisor ...to see how we can help make the most of your retirement savings. t. rowe price. invest with confidence.
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welcome back, everybody. among the stories that are front and center this morning, blackberry out with its quarterly results. it lost three cents a share. revenue was well below estimates although blackberry says
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software and services business has more than doubled over the last year. stock is up 11 cents to $8 to'7". we'll be getting marsalis figures from u.s. automakers. analysts think sales will be up from a year ago. tesla has taken the wraps off its less expensive model 3. the $35,000 car doesn't actually go into production until next year but phil lebeau tells us 150,000 people have put down $1,000 down for a deposit. now we're less than an hour away from the march employment report. one of the big questions on wall street who has the right policy plans to create jobs in america. rick bergman runs the enterprise freedom action company. they have a campaign against. front-runner donald trump. and with us is the forr chief economist and economic adviser to vice president biden and cnbc
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contributor. good morning. i'm start with you jared because i was reading something about bernie sanders and i was trying to compare what he's been saying about jobs and how that's actually resonated at least with certain democrats relative to hillary and before we get into the trump thing i want to get your view of whether you think what he talks about makes any sense at all given your politics. >> you kind of have to break it down piece by piece. he has a very ambitious infrastructure investment program, a trillion dollars often years. hillary clinton is about a quarter of that, $275 billion. now pretty much every democrat who thinks about this and by the way a ton of republicans believe infrastructure investment is important both in terms of jobs but also on the productivity side. we're not investing enough in this economy and that kind of investment would be positive. if you compare clinton and sanders what you see oftentimes is that bernie is far more ambitious, hillary would say she's a lot more realistic.
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>> rick, if trump becomes president what happens to the jobs. what are the numbers? what do they look like >> i can't figure out what his plan is. i've listened to him through the debates. i looked at the website. everything he has got on there is pretty pat when it comes to reducing taxes and then everything else is renegotiating trade with china. and if you listen to trump you would think that's a pretty easy prescription for making america great again. just renegotiate the deal with china, cut taxes and we'll have explosive job growth. fiscal and monetary policy is more complex. i think he'll be in a position to undeliver. >> can you make any sense out of the cruz position or does the kasich position make more sense to you. >> cruz and kasich are more serious legislators and they got
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a better handle on the fact that this is not just a, you know, a campaign that's going to live off of sound bites. but at the end of the day i haven't seen trump agree that there's anything that's already been proposed that's break through that's going to make a difference. he's auditioning for this job like people audition on that apprentice program. when you audition for a job you need to tell people what you're going to do. at this point in time most of the people who are in favor of trump are buying in to his attitude but not buying in to his policies because i can't figure out what they are that make a big meaningful difference. >> two things. rick just reminded me of something that hillary clinton has on her agenda that's important, actually two things. one thing you talk about apprenticeship she has $1500 tax credit for apprenticeship. that's something that works well in europe that we don't do enough here. one thing about trump and i completely agree with everything rick said.
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it's hard to even understand what he's saying because he changes from day-to-day. on international trade one thing -- by the way, every other candidate both republican and democrat talk about is taking action against currency manipulators who depress the value of their currency to get an advantage on the trade side. i think that's a good idea. i agree trump may not be the guy with the legislative chops to get there but currency manipulation has been a long term problem. not with china right now but with some other countries. on the manufacturing side there again hillary clinton has a pretty ambitious plan for revitalizing innovation within the manufacturing sector. >> jared, thank you for agreeing with me on something. i'll play off something you said about that apprenticeship program of hillary clinton. while we're trying to get young people into jobs, at the same time as you're familiar with, we're now raising the minimum wage -- >> another good idea. >> yeah. in new york and in california to $15 which is basically double
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the federal minimum wage. now even liberal economists, in fact, i imagine jared would agree with me on this, liberal economists will tell you we've never been in these unchartered waters before. while we're worried about people getting into apprenticeship programs we're doing away with these entry level jobs because people in the business communities are now investing in technology to do away with people working in these jobs because customers are not going to be willing to pay for the price of these minimum wage hikes which are quite frankly outrageous. >> i think what you have to do there is look at a couple of nuances. hillary clinton is on board for a $12 minimum wage increase, bernie sanders for 15. >> hillary is now on board for 15. >> not for national. that's wrong. and listen, here's the thing about 15. this is where hillary is. there are places in this country where i think it can work with a long phase in. i don't think it makes sense for a federal level at this point. i think what hillary endorses
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and a lot of other liberal economists endorse is there are ideas like cities, seattle, l.a., maybe new york with a considerable phase in it could work. you're right it's out of our kind of historical sample. >> well, i'll take the last comment as gospel and disregard the rest of it jared. >> let me ask both of you gentleman one last thing the immigration piece. that's also become the issue de jur. do you think by keeping immigrants out of the country will change the employment story? >> which one of us? >> both go for it real quick. >> at the same time. >> both talk. >> no. i think it's a terrible idea. remember 11 million of them are actually here and working already. so i don't see how getting rid of them helps at all. >> rick? >> well, you know, the visa program very important because we don't have the educated
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workforce in this country that we need for some of helps higher level jobs. you got 1500 kids, more than 1500 kids dropping out of high school every day, seven days a week. you got kids who are coming out of high school with degrees that as newt gingrich used to say can't read their diploma. 30% of these kids with high school degrees who can't get in the army because of reading deficiencies or math deficiencies. we need to bring people into the country with skills because if we have job creation we need smarter people in these jobs. the mexico thing it's been proven fairly recently there are more people going back to mexico than coming in from mexico so the whole thing with the wall is probably old news and a little overstated as a solution. >> jared, rick, thank you guys. producer wants all to read the teaser at the same time. because people will change the channel and that's not what we
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want or any more people changing the channel. anyway. still to come virtual reality game. not is going to curse. that will scare the dickens out of you. while all this while trying to save a kitten. why? kidding. plus a staggering report on how unprepared corporate leaders are for cyber attacks on their companies and just how much these threats are costing businesses around the world right now. "squawk box" will be right back. ♪ in new york state, we believe tomorrow starts today.
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check this out. if you were on the fence about trying a virtual reality game, this may just change your mind. the company is releasing a promo video for virtual reality zone. the center will open on april 15th in tokyo. one of the simulation games is called acrophobia. it's about the fear of heights. you have to save a kitty that's 650 feet above the ground. you have to bounce on the plank and get the poor stranded kitty without falling off. the virtual reality zone will have a horror game.
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that sounds worse. a driving game and a skiing game. >> when he were in davos facebook had that thing where you could play -- >> a horror game. >> stabbing with you. >> up looked over and the guy says to you why don't you take a step off. only if i can hold on to you. >> horror. according to a new report from cyber security firm, over 90% of corporate executives around the world say they can't read a cyber security report and are not prepared to hand all major attack. pretty scary considering last year the center for strategic and international stewies said nearly half a trillion dollars was lost from cyber crime. the chief security officer at tanium and the chief information security officer for the nasdaq and gentlemen thank you both for
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being here. let's start with why you came up with the study. what dew point to find out? >> when you look at nasdaq's role in the industry we're part of the critical infrastructure that supports our capital market system. additionally nasdaq is a trusted market operator and supplier of market technology to many exchanges globally. when we looked at the cyber landscape it's obviously extremely important to us that proper protections are in place. that the proper readiness is in place as well. and when you look at the level of the frequency of cyber incident, the severity of cyber incidents that's dramatically gone up in the last two or three years. when you look at the sophistication of the threats and threat actors they've also increased their skill set. what has not kept pace with that is the education level, the understanding of the impact of cyber across all industries. >> what shocked you most? >> i think the most shocking
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statistic was really the fact that the individuals at the top of an organization, so executives like ceos and cios and board members didn't feel personally responsible for cyber security or protecting the customer data. it was 40%. >> it gets hacked, out, there we tried our best, it's not our problem. >> imagine if they didn't feel responsible for financial success of a company. that was relatively shocking for me. they are handing this off to their techies and placing their heads in the sand. >> some of this stuff is pretty complicated. what should ceos be doing. what can they be doing. we hear companies saying they are doing stuff and in lot of cases spending a lot of money. are they not doing a enough. >> the challenge is education. we're expecting these individuals to understand a very complex topic that's not in their area of expertise. we need to first educate them on what cyber security is. make them flew he in cyber security. second thing is there's no cyber security financial statement.
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right? there's no standard metrics to measure cyber security. as a result we don't have those metrics to measure across organizations and education needs to understand those metrics. >> part of it is almost the dirty little secret nobody wants to admit they were hacked. there's not a lot of public disclosure because you feel you don't want your customers have a crisis of confidence. >> exactly. confidence, you have to underscore confidence when you are dealing with cyber protection. you know, overall when you look at the landscape and we talked about education level of sea level -- >> you're not going to train them all. >> this is not a technology problem. that's at the heart of this. this is a mine set, this is a cultural issue. you have to awant to a culture of responsibility. security has to be top of mind of everyone in the organization. you cannot just default to the tech team, to the information security team or the group risk
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to worry about your issues. this s's issue. once everyone adopts that we'll get to a quicker control on this matter. >> do you think there are certain sectors of the economy or certain corporate sectors more at risk than others. certain companies have gotten smarter about it faster. >> absolutely. any part of the industries that are considered critical infrastructure such as the financial industry have been a targets very early on and have been in most cases the early adopters whether new technology, new processes or have tried to adopt a culture of security. >> what do you think about law firms. >> it's not a surprise to us. you know, they have a wealth -- >> they have some of the most critical information. >> exactly. when you look at deals that law firms work on. >> health care industry. >> it's across all the industries. we had this conversation about law firms i think it was three years ago where we had a rash. i think, you know, that is really the biggest problem is
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cross industry. and law firms are particularly important because they have real interesting data. they have nation states because they are doing international trade deals. they have financial attackers because they have information on m and as. they have a lot more information. >> they just made them bicker targets. >> we want to thank you both for coming in. >> thank you. >> i love that conversation. but i did think about what if you just afraid of heights, what if you just go head long and keep doing it. because when you have a plank on a floor and you're not really high you can walk up and back. you would never fall. >> you'll never win. >> on a normal plank you do it on the floor. >> it's the aspect of adding the height. >> what if you go head long and you keep falling. would youdesensitize yourself from heights.
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talk about walking around a house. >> might give you a heart attack. >> there's the kitty. >> rush head long out there, doggone it i don't care if i fall. i'll do it. if i fall -- >> you don't feel that way. you honestly want to hold the hands of somebody. i'm not joking. >> when we come back is the high end of new york city real estate, is that market really about to go bust? our wealth reporter robert frank is set to take the wraps off a new report next. in the meantime check out the futures ahead of today's jobs report. dow futures down by 66 points. s&p futures down by ten. napds down by 20. that's nothing compared to what happened in japan overnight, down 3.5%.
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welcome back, everybody. amazon is tripling the number of its instant order dash buttons to over a hundred. they are tied to a specific brand and let customers place orders for things they run out of. the latest edition include lysol, purina and trojan. okay. >> there you have it. >> convenience. >> i don't think it will be fast enough. >> wow! >> i didn't say that.
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>> that's a marketing gimmick. >> you have no idea how fast. believe me you can't even, from what i hear. look whose here. mr. rebecca patterson. never fast enough. let's reset this. there are reports high end real estate market is about to crumble. dare i say a big apple bubble. here to separate the fact from fixtions cnbc's wealth editor robert frank sheer. >> you would think it would be time for a correction in mants but manhattan real estate actually -- >> let him do his thing. >> -- continues to defy economic gravity with prices in mants hitting an all-time record. the arj sale price of a new york apartment topped $2 million for the first time in history. according to a new report from
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douglas and miller the appraisal company. the average price per-square-foot set a record. total sales increased 8%. apartments sold faster. discounts are down. almost half of all apartments sold are selling for above the asking price or at the asking price. there are some signs of a slight slow down at the very, very top of the market. apartments in the top 10% in manhattan sat on the market average of 122 days. total number of resales fell for the third straight quarter. now get this the most expensive sale in the quarter was at 101 central park west. five play rooms, a staff room, went for $35 million and the seller were keith and peggy anderson. keith is co-founder of blackrock. they bought the apartment for $12.3 million in 2003 so they nearly tripled their investment.
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>> wow. it's actually tripled investment on some of these things. >> they did a renovation. >> but still beats the stock market. >> right. >> to be able to flip. >> again given the volatile stock market, slowing economic growth and all this talk about the overseas chinese not buying any more. >> 2003 they bought. >> but you think that this feels like it should be getting to a tipping point. >> here's the big caveat. yes very strong. yes we're seeing increase in sales. a lot of these sales are for contracts written 18 months ago for new buildings that are just closing now. so we're getting this artificial inflation. we could have what i call the condo cliff where all of these previous deals wash through the system and then -- so we can't tell how the markets are doing right now based on this first quarter information. >> you won't know until the wave
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hits. >> we could be seeing a delay. the numbers tell us it's still very strong. >> roberts, thank you. when we come back the final countdown we're just over 30 minutes away from the market, the fed and investors around the can't wait to see that's the march jobs report. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. ♪ over 100 years ago as a benchmark for average. yet many people still build portfolios with strategies that just track the benchmarks. but investing isn't about achieving average. it's about achieving goals. and invesco believes doing that today requires the art and expertise of high-conviction investing. translation? it's time to bench the benchmarks. there's a lot of places you never want to see "$7.95." [ beep ]
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countdown the jobs report. will the data upset the markets after the dow had its best rebound in a quarter since 1933. and how will the numbers play out in the political arena. marriott out lasts the competition. china's insurer anbang walking away from starwood clearing the way for arne sorenson's merger plans. the joke is on google. the tech giant is dealing with an april fools' backfire this morning. we'll tell you all about it. the third hour of "squawk box" starts right now. ♪ we don't get fooled again ♪ don't get fooled again >> announcer: live from the most powerful city in the world, new york. this is "squawk box".
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welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc, first in business worldwide. i'm joe kernen along with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin. we're kourntsing down to the jobs report now just over half an hour, 30 minutes away from that march data. we're going to get the numbers from tlab department right at 8:30 a.m. sharp. economists are expecting nonfarm payrolls to rise by 213,000 that's the number to watch for. big number that no one had last month. no one was at 242. i don't think. were they. >> there was somebody on our panel who was really close. >> we heard that the hours was down. >> was it sandy that came the closest. >> and wiped out some of it. >> that was more important than the headline number. >> famous economist is here. the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.9%. ahead of the numbers futures right now continue to trade
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lower. we're now down lower than 50 on the dow and s&p down about 9. european markets were all down this morning. energy -- are you doing this? >> no. i was waiting. >> okay. i guess i will. down a dollar now on crude down back to 37 and change. and ten year is 1.78. would you, rebecca, would you feign if it went to 1.25. anyway that happens? >> i think you would have to get some sort of shock to get us there. >> we can do that. >> we had a few shocks in the last few months. it wouldn't be my base case. >> it's not outside the realm of possibility. >> you look what happened to japan with the tankan survey. the bank of japan think they have to take rates further negative. europe stays negative that puts pressure on u.s. yields. >> because the pressure you're getting from negative interest rates. >> that's a big move.
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>> it would be. on thatcherry note let's talk about the first quarter. it was a stunning turn around for stocks if you were watching over the entire three months. the last time that dow had a come back like this in a single quarter was more than 82 years ago, all the way back to 1933. the average fell by 11% but erased those losses finishing a gain of 1.5% for the three month period. commodities, gold had its best quarter since 1986. but it wasn't all pretty. the nasdaq seeing its first negative first quarter. anbang walking way from starwood. dropping a $14 billion attempted the buy. the surprise moving capping off a three week bidding war and soap opera that clears the way for marriott to buy starwood. it's president spoke to us in the last hour about the latest turn of events. >> i think what anbang has said is it's expensive and to be fair
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it's worth more to us in some respects because we got immediately $250 million of cross synergies. we're paying lower than what they would have been paying because they had no existing business. >> let's check out the reaction of shares of starwood and marriott. starwood down a little bit expecting perhaps people thought a bigger deal might still come. marriott shares are down. they look like they are the winner. there's execution risk to this transaction. a lot of shorts came back as part of the deal. i was most fascinated by the fact that this ripple effect to everybody else, debate about what will happen to american express an jpmorgan, coca-cola, and pepsi. a lot of people on a lot of sides and a big shake out over the next couple of years. >> control yourself. you didn't start pushing him on the free wi-fi across all platforms and all names. >> that's for the next.
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>> when he comes back. you'll twist his arm for that. >> it's crazy. >> when you go into a ritz-carlton you have to pay for wi-fi. >> it upsets me to no end. >> babies in first class >> that's worse. >> i was with you on my last flight. i was. which was you. sorkin is right. >> when is the last time you saw an airline advertise first class with a baby. >> this kid was like -- >> we were on the same flight. going to davos. >> i felt bad for the parents. >> flight is hard for a little one. >> your turn. >> don't call me. >> elon musk taking wraps off the highly-anticipated model, model 3 late last night. i want a model like super s. i don't want this one. i want to see something cooler than the model s. some are calling it the
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affordable tesla with a sticker price starting at $35,000. phil lebeau errors more than 150,000 have put down $1,000 deposit tons car. that was well above what people thought. elon musk pointed out that influx of orders comes despite the fab that production won't begin until late 2017. >> $35,000. [ applause ] >> i want to emphasize that even if you buy it no options at all this will still be an amaze charge. you'll not be able to buy a better car for $35,000. >> tesla shares as you can see are doing very well on that, up about 15 points pre-markup. the market cap now. only $30 billion. . >> they have just over 100,000 cars on the market. delivery will start in 2012 when
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it was 2,000 cars. sthok me you see this kind of activity around a company that has 100,000 cars on the streets. >> if you really got it, you got the electric car. >> i hear it's safe. >> safe. well made. >> i got tour the tesla factory which was extraordinary. it's an engineering wonder. the cars, the thought that's gone into them is truly impressive. >> any people in there >> there were a lot of robots and people operating the robots. largest factory in north america. >> what do you mean super charge. 215 miles. all coming together. that's pretty exciting. acceleration. comfortable. >> they are safe. >> do you have one? >> no. >> would you buy that one? >> i would certainly consider it. >> but no sound. if i was in england. >> i'm concerned. >> walking the wrong way. >> i wouldn't hear it sniemd
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like the home put some sort of sound in there. seriously. >> i thought they add ad sound to the prius. >> the jetsons. >> it would fit, problem. >> you can pick your sound. you can choose which songs. >> like your phone. >> your ringer. >> we are less than 30 minutes away from the mr. employment report. let's get more on the economyover all. alan krueger is professor of economics at princeton university. tim kai tim. cain is senior economist at joint economic committee of u.s. congress and our guest host is rebecca patterson. we heard from janet yellen this week and her view of the economy is quite a bit dimmer than a lot of other people have been forecasting, have been seeing.
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what do you think about the overall state of the u.s. economy? >> i think the u.s. economy is continuing to recover. it's slower growth than we would like. if you look at the household survey we had the strongest job growth in the last quarter since 1983. i think recovery will continue. the risk is the rest of the world which the fed is focused on. >> does the rest of the world catch up to the united states or do we continue to out pace and live in our own isolated bubble? >> we're fortunate because we still are driven by the domestic economy. we're exposed financially to what goes on internationally but less so to the trade channel. there are periods where the eurozone was very weak and u.s. economy expanded for long periods of time. so i think we might be in that time of period now. >> tim, how do you see the u.s. economy right now? >> i think it's about right.
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i got to tell you. i focused on my research and then went i come on the show i look at the data. i thought any excel sheet was broken. because the one employment claims are solo. that's a key indicator for whether the u.s. is heading for a recession or whether the labor market is strong. so it's strong i doubted that microsoft's product was working correctly. it's fine. >> there are times people say people have gotten washed out they can't claim unemployment. do you think that's the case? >> no, that's something that's in the back of my mind. but we're talking about numbers lower than ever, ever. like -- so much lower than historically unemployment insurance claims have ever been relative to the size of the labor force. no. the predominant force is it's a tight labor market. where i disagree even though there might an equilibrium, it's healthy but not as strong as we would like. there's something suppressing
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the labor market overall. it's underperforming. i don't think the federal reserve can goose it any more. it's a mixed bag. i don't think it will get much stronger than this. >> tim, i have to ask you, though, if things are humming along like that, if things look so great, if the unemployment claims are solo and the job market looks so healthy how come we have all these candidates running on a message of hey things are terrible and we're is going to make it better. it's hard to equalize those two views. >> it really is. from my perspective you have a candidate on the right and a candidate on the left who have gone fully populace. i guess they believe it. another cane in hillary clinton who i think has let herself get pulled, sold her soul on trade. it's disappointing. populism sells. that reinforces the points that the labor force participation rate -- millions of people just can't find work any more and so there is something really
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unhealthy in this labor market, underlying what looked like very strong numbers. >> i was going to ask alan about his prediction that was so well known. who is right. was there really less slack than we thought, inflation coming back quicker than we thought or were you right or were the people that disagree with you right? >> i think the jury is still out to be perfectly honest. i was looking pretty good until a few months ago. we saw some recovery in labor force participation. we'll learn if that continues. core inflation is over two. so i think frankly that the curve is working the way one would expect. i would give you and alternative hypothesis for the populism right now. the economy is stronger than it was four years ago when president obama was re-elected in a landslide. think sort of what's going on now is a delayed reaction to the financial and economic crisis. and the situation was so bad in 2009, 2010 when i was working at the white house, people were too
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scared to complain in a way. >> is this a tale of two americas half of america that's prospered and done well and the other half has been left behind. >> that's gone on for 30 years. why is it boiling over now. the economy is strong enough where people feel confident enough to express those concerns. where before you are i in an airplane engines are having problems, you don't complain to boeing you want to land the plane. >> we'll continue this conversation in just a moment. we do have more from our jobs panel leading up to that jobs report in about 17 minutes. coming up, how is princeton? >> admission letters go out today. >> wow. >> or emails. >> are you getting a lot of applicants. you looking for students or you getting -- how is that? >> we're always looking for great students. >> still a couple of years away. how is the school >> doing great. we're doing really well our endowment. >> the tigers.
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>> tigers. >> admission notification go out on april fools' day. >> that's cruel. >> just kidding. >> coming up, an april fools' prank gone bad for google. plus where the jobs are. you don't have to look any further than your phone or tablet. it is social media and the money going into this sector means more jobs in the future. that story coming up after the break. we're minutes away, basically it is, the final countdown to the march jobs report. a must see market moving moment for your money. we'll be right back.
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welcome back to "squawk box," everyone. we're inches closer to the march jobs report. the futures, they have been weaker this morning. right now dow futures are down by 56 points. this comes after a decline for the dow yesterday of 30 something points. of course that happens just as we're looking at the market before that sitting at new highs. s&p futures down by nine, nasdaq down by 16. this april fools' day the joke is on google. the company add ad new feature to g-mail called the mike drop which was next to the standard send e-mail button. allowed people to send messages with an animated minion
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character dropping a microphone. but it ended the conversation making the sendser not see any subsequent reprice. some said the prank insulted their contacts and others claim they were losing employment opportunities. if you were using this to try to get a job. -- >> using a minion. >> have you been on google today? i don't know -- is this an april fools' thing instead of it saying i feel lucky, i'm feeling trendy. >> mine says lucky. >> i feel puzzled. >> it's reflekreflection of you. >> i'm feeling hungry. >> my neck hurts. >> mine just did it. >> roll your curser over it. >> mine doesn't say anything. >> roll over it. >> roll over it.
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>> wait because you're on a mobil. yeah. >> anyway. it is estimated spending on social media here in the u.s. will hit over 27 billion by 2020, more than double the levels seen last year. the money fueling a hiring spree by platforms that need digitally savvy people. in our latest installment where the jobs are, mary thompson joins us from tumbler's our. >> reporter: tumblr is one of the top ten social media platforms. it's home to millions of bloggers. a number that's expected to grow by 30% as sumblr adds to its payroll. ten years ago tumblr didn't exist. facebook was in its infancy. for companies these days, it paz
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to be social. >> it does create an opportunity for businesses to reach out to consumers. directly. >> reporter: this professor noting social media's rise also presenting opportunities for job-seekers. from graphic designers creating the platform's look to security specialists who ensure data is protected to app developers for mobil sites and data scientists. >> it's a pretty wide combination of different skill sets. >> reporter: people with these skill sets all focussed on working to keeping the customer come back and engaged in the site. >> this is not a fleeting phenomenon, not a fad or trend, it's a fundamental permanent shift in how organizations and consumers depend on each other, how they talk to each other. wloip you talk pay in social media it varies with the job. artists can start in the low 40s, engineers and developers can fetch six figures. now, of course, in determining exactly how many social media jobs are being create sad little
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difficult because often they are lumped into marketing and i.t. jobs. coming up later in the day we'll speak to tumblr's president in the type of traits they are looking for in workers they hire. coming up when we return happy birthday apple the tech giant turning 40 years old today. looking at the tech giant over the years from the first macintosh to a billion devices around the world. happy birthday, apple. ♪ the all-new audi a4, with available virtual cockpit.
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technology moves faster than ever. the all-new audi a4, with apple carplay integration.
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welcome back to "squawk". it's apple's birthday. steve jobs founded this company. there are a billion active apple devices around the world. 11 billion active app doefrls and the firm is responsible for 2 million jobs justin united states and 4 million in china. it's current levels apple bigger than intel, ibm, isis corks qualcomm and adobe and yes that's combined. as for how the products have changed over the years. take a look how the personal computer has transformed from the apple 1 to today's macbook air. you can basically do everything on your iphone. the first edition was released in 2007. that company could have been owned by ge. we found out yesterday --
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>> that was at a different time. wouldn't have been this because it was before jobs came back. different scenario. >> we could have bought it. >> andrew couldn't have because he's younger than apple. >> true. a little bit. one year younger. >> my professor when i was in grad school bought, i think 1978 and he bought, that was an apple 1 or 2. all i knew how to do was play this really cool game. >> wozniak edition. it had his signature on it. >> it is an antique. >> as a child. >> this is the final countdown. but investing isn't about achieving average. it's about achieving goals. and invesco believes doing that today requires the art and expertise of high-conviction investing.
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welcome back. let's go around the horn now and get our panel's final predictions. we're less than three minutes from jobs number. first up steve liesman, what is your number? >> look at the flowers. 190 something like that. yeah. 190. there we go. 190.
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i'm not sure what that flower is meaning here. it is april flowers bring may showers. >> hippie dippy. >> may flowers. >> some rain above you. >> you want to tell us the number. >> no i'm not is going to bother you with it. >> rick santelli what's your number, sir? >> 188. 188,000. >> 188,000. >> i'm high ball right now. 220. >> 220. okay that's nice. we like a high number. that's good. tim kaine? >> even though april is the coolest month i'll say 222. >> alan krueger we play "price is right" rules. >> i'm committed to 205. >> you don't want to change? >> any guess from 175 to 250 is quite possible. >> we have a tight range this time around.
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>> this is a weird month because we didn't get the moratoriumal data ahead of the payroll. >> i used the isms in my model. it makes it more accurate. >> what's the krueger model? >> the krueger model? it's a wide range. the numbers get revised. >> can you guess? >> no. i look at the consensus and shave one way or the other. the consensus has the lowest forecast ever even though there's a lot of noise if you use the consensus. >> you're 95% confidence range is plus or minus like 100,000. >> yeah. >> to be accurate it could be, if it comes in at 220 really is 320 or 120. >> okay. we're now just seconds away. we got 30 seconds. we should take at that quick look at the futures board. the futures, all this could change. dow could open by 50 points, nasdaq off by 14 points and s&p
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500 off. >> i don't know what would change it. >> excuse me? >> what do we want? bad news. >> you have to think the market is secure in a down side because it's so dovish. >> gentleman we have to go to hampton hearson. >> reporter: 215,000 march nonfarm payrolls increased by 215,000 jobs. the unemployment rate is 5%, average hourly earnings up 0.3%. the last time we had an unemployment rate of 5% was may of 2015. private sector job growth in march, plus 195,000, private-sector jobs the net revisions for the two months net decline of just 1,000 jobs over the two months from what it previously had been reported. big story inside the numbers, manufacturing actually declined by 29,000 last month. that's the most largely monthly
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decline in that particular sector since december of 2009. the labor force participation rate actually increased to 63%. that's the highest since march of 2014, the u 6, 9 policy 8% versus 9.7% last year or excuse me -- yes, last month i should say. that 5% unemployment rate how did we get there? basically an increase in both employment and unemployment. more people came back into the labor force looking for work not all of them found jobs. job gains, retail trade up 48,000, construction plus 37,000, health care plus 37,000 as well. we already mentioned loss of 29,000 in the manufacturing sector mining was down by 12,000. so the average job gains over the last three months now 209,000 per month over the previous 12 months, 223,000. >> thank you for that hampton. for more reaction on the data let's bring in our panel.
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you said you thought this was a great report. >> yeah. we saw almost no revisions to last month, 215 on the headline this month which is a good number. i was very happy to see hourly earnings tick up a little bit and participation rate tick up a little bit. to me this is a very healthy steady as she goes improving labor market report. >> when we get into good news is good news s-bad news bad news we should get to rick to understand how you think the markets will take this. rick? >> reporter: well i'll tell you what. in watching the way the markets are trading yields are popping up just a little bit. i think that's more of a function actually of some of the issues regarding the end of the quarter and the change in direction to the fed comments earlier in the week by janet yellen. but all in all i think that this data, like much of the data is pretty consistent.
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you notice where all the variance has gone in these numbers. it fixes the macro picture of the globe and it's output and been doing a pretty good job in terms of equities today after going into the end of the quarter a bit down yesterday. i fully suspect we'll continue to hover near unchanged. so everything is anchored in the same place on the board. >> steve, we talked about this, every candidate claims the economy is terrible. >> so, i think some of the rhetoric on the economy has been over the top. people who call it a disaster, i think, they have been wrong. you can't really tell people who are telling you in poll after poll that they don't thereof economy, that economy is good. that they are happy when they are not. i will tell you our data coming out monday for the all america poll, cue the music.
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should have some great music. what we find is we're running above average post-recession. but we can't kind of break out of this rut we've been in. i want to go through some of the data. one of the big numbers here is this 396 into the workforce. it is interesting that now that the political class has gotten info this idea of people dropping out of the workforce, people have come back in. you have had this very large influx into the workforce. on the year-over-year number we were up 2 million people and alan told us during the break we have this retail strength, retail hiring strength up by 47,000. retail numbers have been lousy. jobs are being created in the service sector up 199,000. we have construction going strong. the housing sector has been good. but this manufacturing decline, 29,000 is big and one other, two other factors doing well leisure
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and hospitality up 40k. that may be seasonal. and government is back on track up 20,000. big number for government. >> i think heard tim wanting to weigh in. >> look, this is a steady number. i think it totally is in line with what's happened over the last year. the average has been 222,000, 215. so it's solid. the reason people are fearful and the reason this populism works is one out of 30 people that had a job that were in the labor force before obama became president aren't in the labor force. that's a paradox that hasn't been fixed. >> well it's not really that much of a paradox. at least half of that is because of ageing of the population that was predicted by the economic report when president bush was president. part of that is cyclical and we're seeing recovery in that in the last six months. this is a good report. no surprises in the report.
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the only weakness was manufacturing. which looks like maybe it hasn't bottomed yet and mostly durable goods manufacturing not necessarily autos. >> number of influx into the workforce it's got to tell yellen she has time. . >> janet yellen thinks what? >> the influx -- krueger was doing great. he said it correctly. he's a stand up man to get up here and say what he said. he was spot on. he won the day until about five months ago which is the same time that the campaign started and everybody started talking about how people dropped out of the workforce. what happened at moment. people started to come back in the workforce. yellen looks at this and argued for a long time there's folks out there, they are slack, they are coming back. if there's a phillips curve relationship, we'll get larry to yell on that. slack keeps inflation down. that's the concept. what she is seeing is hundreds of thousands of people coming
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back to the workforce. you had a 0.3% rise in wages but not seeing tremendous wage gains and that's because employers still have their pick of employees. >> don't get too carried way. in the last 12 months labor force participation rate super. >> but you were on a trajectory of a decline. >> i thought it would level off. >> the trend was down. >> ageing will cause it to decline again in the future. we're seeing younger people come back to the labor market. that's terrific. i would like to see more middle aged workers come back. >> i'm glad we had hampton because we never had a jobs report on april 1st. this is not the day for -- that's not funny. trade on that and that's not a time for it, right? we don't do april fools' joke at 8:30. >> no. >> can i ask tim a question. tim, is there a possibility that these jobs numbers, again, i'm going back to -- we look at the polls. got a big poll coming out in
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monday. an in depth look at the relation of the economy to politics. can these job numbers change the dynamic between now and november? >> not at all. they said manufacturing is down. that's all these populists need to here. manufacturing will go down for the next 50 years. 80% of the economy is already a service economy. so look the populace have the ammo they need. those of us who know better this is a good report. >> beyond the populism if people have jobs, they have employment, they have a paycheck. now there's this sense out there i'm not doing as well as i should be doing. that's out there. but i've long maintained you can't tell somebody they have a paycheck in their pocket when they don't. that their wages are good when they are not. that generally everything is fine when it isn't. you have to be very careful about that. if people are coming back in the workforce and doing these strong job numbers you have to think there's a potential to have an impact on the economy. >> if house values don't rise that's the biggest chuchg jefg
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american's net worth. >> when your house price is going up you love the economy. >> rick you might temp they are. if it wasn't the rest of the world being so -- we would be talking about previous recoveries where we got 400,000, 500,000, 3%, 4% gdp growth. eight years later we're all patting ourselves on the back but still below 2% most quarters in terms of growth. better than the rest of the world but i still think it's not the potential for what the united states is capable of. >> hold on. joe i want to answer your question. you're exactly right. we can't -- we cannot grade on a curve when it comes to the u.s. economy. we cannot say we're better than europe because better than europe was a given for our history of recoveries. other than this one.
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and let's really be honest here. there's a lot of jobs being sub jobs. obamacare helped recalibrate the work week. >> that's not true. >> jobs are full time. zero on part time job growth. >> it true. >> noits not. it's just not. let's do the facts. >> i'm looking at the big picture over the last seven and a half years everybody is happy about the jobs report as we go into our japanese decade. >> what's the data say? >> i fact checked this. >> oh, yeah. eight years you didn't think it would take eight years. >> the numbers yesterday part time job growth is zero -- first of all part time job growth for economic reasons has come down. part time job growth for non-economic reasons as a voluntary choice has come up. the net is zero. >> what are the reasons?
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reasons we making up. >> what do you mean what reasons? i'm saying the data. >> you said economic and non-economic reasons. >> it doesn't matter. >> i don't have that data. >> it doesn't matter. >> the job growth in this recovery has been overwhelmingly full time. >> overwhelmingly. >> rick you can criticize the job growth just don't do it with facts that aren't true. >> to joe's point that we've been growing too slowly. maybe the point again and again that every time -- we're growing more slowly than in other recessions but -- other recovery since world war ii but this was the deepest since world war 2. >> other deep recessions have caused even deeper, i mean even morrow bust recoveries. a snap back. this was a different type of recession. >> this was the cause of the crisis. >> no one is unhappy about --
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>> i have a lot of sympathy for joe's point of view on this. there's been a lot of positive aspects to this recovery. i think you could have done better if you hadn't gone quite as far with some of the economic regulation that's been out there. i think quashing the banks has been, i think, having them raise the capital level was a good thing but i think you've gone too far with some smaller community banks. unleash the banks. let the banks be the banks. >> you work for the fed. if we had normal people. >> we got to have you. >> the back of your hand? no. >> what kind of guy are you? >> okay. folks, we need to thank the whole crew, alan, until, rebecca you'll stick around for the rest of the hour. >> when we come back, larry kudlow will jump into the jobs
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conversation. and the latest twist and turns in the road to the white house. right now as we head to a break take a look at the futures. standing where they were just before we got the jobs report which was almost exactly in line with expectations. look at the dow down 62 points. s&p down by nine and nasdaq down by 17.
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welcome back to "squawk box". joining us now for more reaction -- go ahead. cnbc senior contributor larry kudlow joins us now. glad you're in the green room because you walked out and sat down and said this is the worst recovery from a recession since world war ii. >> it has. not going change. >> we can pat ourselves on the back. >> that's what the atlanta fed forecast. >> if it wasn't for the rest of the world, they have always not kept up with us because they don't have the same type of exceptionalism. that's the only reason we feel good because they are worse. >> it's a lousy comparison. it's an odd thing. a lot of people say the u.s. can't grow because the rest of the world is slow. no, no. it goes the other way. if the u.s. is growing rapidly the rest of the world does better. >> it's our fault that the world
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is -- >> look, we are the largest component, maybe not statistically but when you look at the business numbers. we drive the economy for heaven's sake. yeah, i don't buy that. i think -- this is an okay jobs report. i won't take any exception. the big guest problem is mr. krueger is saying, look, 25 to 54-year-old participation rate is lousy. that's the heart of the workforce that's had virtually no recovery. tiny little recovery just in the last few months. that tells you something. those people are not retiring. those are the young people working for god's sake. we haven't fixed that. that's a big problem. and one last point. look at the numbers. average or median wages per capita. okay. this is professor john cochran of stanford. year 2000 was the peak. they haven't had a raise in pay, these are middle income wage
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earners have not had a pay raise since year 2000. now, look. that is not a republican issue. because some of that occurred under george w. bush. not just a democratic issue although it occurred under obama. it's an american issue. the reason why people are so angry at this election and why the outsiders are doing much better than the insiders. those folks want a raise and i will say for the -- s corps take it down to 15% full cash expensing, no double tax on the overseas companies because final point. what we had not had in this recovery is business investment. had not had it. >> larry politicians aren't necessarily going feel they get credit of that. it's complicated stuff. >> there's a messaging issue. by the way the republicans are
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just wildly off message. democrats aren't much better. but there's a messaging issue. look, you guys know kevin hassett, a brilliant guy. he and his team have done the work on this. the biggest benefici jefgest be the middle income wage earners. not the rich. not even the consumer. middle income wage earner. >> the funny part democrats largely do want to lower the corporate tax. republicans do. the question isn't do they want to lower it the question is by how much and what is the spread between where you are and where others are. right? >> you guys want nationwide $15 an hour minimum wage before we do anything with corporate tax. >> this is a very important tactic. they are focused on raising the minimum wage. i'm more focused on raising the maximum wage. the issue here is democrats are not pushing for this. they are not.
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obama occasionally gives lip service to about a 30% corporate tax which is way too much. >> he'll go down 28. number of republicans including paul ryan talked about 25. you're talking about 15. >> right. >> you're talking about 15. >> he's gaining on it. jeb bush had 20. >> right. >> donald has 15. those are the two best plans. hillary never talks about it. all she wants to do is penalize companies. bernie sanders, god bless him. >> i know you like donald trump's tax plan what do you think of his free trade plan. >> i think he's got a problem. a serious problem. look, i endorsed his tax cut plan. that's as far as i'm going. i admire him. think he's making a good run. he's not had a good two weeks, but, no. i don't like him on tried. i got ways to get around that i'm hoping to talk to him at some point, but, no right now his trade position is highly flawed. see that?
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even-handed. >> love this guy. the one and only. my good friend, larry kudlow. >> can we talk about -- we're going to get to the wisconsin primary? >> we will in a bit. when we return, we will talk to jim cramer. larry will stick around. we'll talk to jim. get his reaction to the jobs report and talk about that big hotel deal. yet many people still build portfolios with strategies that just track the benchmarks. but investing isn't about achieving average. it's about achieving goals. and invesco believes doing that today requires the art and expertise of high-conviction investing. translation? it's time to bench the benchmarks.
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let's get down to the new york stock exchange. i was just thinking of something, cramer. kudlow was here. kudlow and cramer together, that occurred to me to be a -- why we haven't thought about this. what is wrong with these people? >> there we go. put them together. >> what about a show together? >> two optimists with different ways to get there. >> jimmy cramer, you're the best. i haven't seen you in a while. you're the best. best, best. >> larry, i love your optimism, i love the way you argue, which is gentlemanly. if we did that in politics we would have something done. >> that's such a great point. because you and i had our disagreements. we also had our agreements. right now, jimmy, the incivility and the hostility between these
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candidates is so boring and vulgar, my fear is the republican party is just destroying itself. not because you hate trump or like trump or hate cruz or like cruz, it's the nature of the debate. it's so uncivil, it's turning millions of people off. >> it's almost as if what you hope -- you and i would get together before and after the show. it was very clear that what we would disagree on would be things that we were rational about. at the end we would shake hands and think, well, that was terrific. it's the opposite now. at the end it's even worse than when they get off the stage. >> i totally agree. there are some decent ideas out there. but you can't get through the noise to talk about it. and in particular, on the economy, jimmy's a growth guy. we both want to create wealth for ordinary investors in the stock market. people can't get through the noise. the noise factor is blocking out the whole discussion. >> we ask why we don't have 5%
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growth, i think the uncertainty caused by politics affects business investment. if i'm a ceo, i don't know who will get elected. i don't know what the policy will be. >> i'm dying to answer you. sandy is screaming in my ear. my lips are sealed. >> we'll be back. >> jimmy, love you. >> go, nova. we agree with that. >> i don't know if we agree with that. i like buddy heild. >> we can find anything to disagree about. >> we can. north carolina blue. we'll see you in a couple. when we come back, more reaction to the jobs report from our guest host, rebecca paterson. tune in monday, david rubenstein is our special guest host. that's monday starting at 7:00 a.m. another quick look at futures. things have gotten worse. dow futures down by about 95 points. the nasdaq down by 27.
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let's get a final thought from our guest host, rebecca paterson and larry kudlow. about ten seconds each. >> ten seconds. i just used two. i think we're in the late cycle expansion. i don't think that means stocks
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can't go up. it's just going to be choppy. be careful. you have to manage the volatility. >> that was 20 seconds. >> wisconsin race will be interesting. new polls show it's a tighter race, even though trump has had a terrible two weeks. the republican party is using ted cruz as a battering ram to damage donald trump and get paul ryan as the candidate. >> thank you both. >> ain't going to happen. >> join us on monday. right now, time for "squawk on the street." good morning. welcome to "squawk on the street," it is april 1st. no fooling, i'm brian sullivan, he is jim cramer. carl and david are off today. your friday road map starts with what else? that big jobs number. the march jobs number coming in a bit better than the consensus forecast. the government says we added 215,000 jobs last month. unemployment rate ticking up a notch to 5%. futures not liking it. the dow is down about 100 poin

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