tv Squawk Alley CNBC April 4, 2016 11:00am-12:01pm EDT
good morning, 8:00 a.m. in tesla headquarters in palo alto, 11:00 on wall street. and "squawk alley" is live. ♪ ♪ welcome to "squawk alley" for a monday morning. jon fortt, kayla tausche and myself back at post nine. also joining us, the founder and editor in chief at the information. jessica lessen. good to have you back. >> thanks. >> a lot to talk about. let's start with tesla. shares seeing a nice gain after more than 275,000 people preordered the new model 3. those preorders for a car that
won't even start production until late next year. now while it's a good headline number, all those deposits, of course, are refundable. but jon, a lot of discussion about how many they can make, how quickly. how much money they have to make them, no matter what the orders are. >> i view this as an indication of interest, not necessarily of demand. i mean, this is a $35,000 car in a way that a starting price with 7.500 off if you get that federal subsidy. but the first one to roll off the line that people are waiting in line for, they might be $55,000 cars. it's not like these people went through credit checks to make sure they can actually afford that. and if they have to give the money back because they can't afford the car, so what. you look at luxury car sales in 2015, bmw, $346,000 and was number one. that's getting close to these numbers. so can they even make these -- this many. can all these people afford them? lots of open questions here. but very interesting interest. >> jessica, they almost need the
two years or year-and-a-half lag time. this is a company that despite how far it has come, still needs these indications of interest. we got a tweet from musk over the weekend, said, definitely going to need to rethink production planning. >> absolutely. >> still trying to wrap his head around this. >> and musk is a showman too. let's remember, this is great pr and impressive number. but right now, it's just a number. that they are milking for good pr value. they've got to make the cars, as jon said. this is a company that has a track record of, you know, missing deadlines. i mean, cars are tough products to make, for sure. it's complicated. i think there are a lot of open questions. and we won't know for a while. i think we're going to keep hearing a lot of enthusiasm around the number. but also, they definitely most likely have to raise more money to feel this as well. so, again, a lot of questions. >> is there a feeling that people believe in the company's prospects more in the valley, because either more people have them or charging stations are more common?
>> there are is a ton of enthusiasm in the valley for tesla. absolutely. there's enthusiasm around the world. i was just in china for a month reporting. china is excited about tesla. but they're also very excited about a lot of the competition, as well. it's early in this game. >> you mentioned they would need to raise more money. obviously, running a capital-intensive business. we saw them sell more shares. elon musk himself bought a lot of this. would that need to happen again? >> it could. they have a ton of options for how they can raise money. but i think that that's an important question, right, to speak to the demand point. you know, tesla is a company, kind of operates on the brink sometimes. and so they're going to have to retool a lot. as elon himself is admitting. if this thing is this excessive, it might be. >> the wall street journal did point out in tw 2015, cash flow was negative $2.2 billion. >> so is netflix. >> right. but they don't have to make cars. but -- original content also
expensive, so point taken. this is the ultimate -- >> no doubt about that. >> next, injectionca, this week the information is holding its subscribers, some in new york city. one of the big topics, of course, mutual fund investments in startups. companies like snapchat, drop box, have reportedly been marked down in recent weeks. you going into this summit with trepidation? will people be talking about valuations in a bearish sense? >> absolutely. there is a lot of caution. and still a lot of concern about this mutual fund in private tech issue. we're still seeing the ripple effects of these funds, like fidelity, marking down their stakes. and we're starting to understand a little bit more about why they're doing that. and it is some caution about the companies. but now i'm starting to hear that entrepreneurs are having second thoughts about whether they want mutual funds in the companies now. and part because they're going to be having, you know, some public data out there, as well. and they're kind of saying, you know, why go through all this bother. so that's a new thing that's crept into the conversation
lately in the valley. >> you guys wrote about that specifically, pertaining to snapchat earlier this year. but they went back to the well. raised more money from fidelity. obviously, at the end of the day, money is money. >> absolutely. so getting fidelity in a later round, particularly when you can see an ipo, makes a lot of sense. but some funds want to do a rounds, b rounds and that's a tougher sell for entrepreneurs. >> jessica, this still feels pretty healthy to me. this didn't -- the drop in valuations didn't turn into an avalanche. it seemed like we reached peak negativity in mid federal government february. you look at fit bit, better. go pro. even groupon. >> that's the public side for sure. >> but it sort of reflects, doesn't it, how people feel in startup land in a way. people seeing bargains and not quite thinking everything is going down all the way. >> i think there are questions. i mean, we're still in an ipo
dry spell, right? so sure, we can be bullish on uber and snapchat for now. but there are still big questions about when are these companies going to get out, if they even want to. many don't. i agree that the great ones are going to continue to find capital. it's there. we're seeing huge venture funds being raised now. founder's fund with the big one reasonable. so the capital is still there. but not for the ones where the revenues aren't there. which is a good thing. >> slack just last week raised a bunch of new money. $3.8 billion valuation. 30% higher from last year. >> they had been seeking 5, though. slack is a great example. the capital is still there, but they had to temp down their lofty expectations a little bit. >> stock markets 3% from its all-time highs. is there a sense in the valley that people in private assets, dodged a bullet? that jon references in february? >> there is a little bit of relief, i think.
but still a lot of nervousness. particularly, you have to remember everything was getting funded 12 months ago. and we saw five on demand, you know, dry cleaning companies or something like that. now there's one, right? that's probably a good thing. but it does affect the mood. it does affect what a lot of entrepreneurs are thinking. and vcs need their returns, too. a lot of fund life cycles coming to an end and thinking, okay, where is going to be my 10x to make my fund. so still some anxiety, even though there is a reprieve. >> the big shakeout of companies closing doors, have we seen that yet, or is there still more pain to come? micro shakeouts. i don't think we're going to see -- we have seen some trimming, some cutting back of burn. i think there's much more to come of that. we're nowhere near through that. but again, i don't think it's going to be an avalanche. nothing falling off the cliff. >> right. controlled chaos, i think we can all handle. congratulations on everything. and good luck tomorrow night. >> thanks. >> jessica lessin with the
information. meanwhile, we're keeping one eye on the markets, trading in a narrow range today despite closing at the highest levels of the year for the dow, nasdaq and s&p as well as m & a headlines. the dow currently down by a third of 1%, as is the s&p. the nasdaq down by a little more than that. shares of ge falling at bernstein. shares up 27% over the past year, but bernstein taking a bearish take on the industrial sector and a few names within that ge among them. that stock down 2.25%. when we come back, shares of facebook slipping on worries over the first quarter. what you need to know. plus, before buying oculus, mark zuckerberg stopped to talk. and the biggest data leak in history. more on the panama, and when we continue in a moment.
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we are watching shares of facebook this morning. analysts at deutsche bank saying the company's q1 results could come in light but positive about the stock long term. taking a look at the broader markets, though, the recent rally in stocks has left some wondering if the market is bumping against its ceiling.
our senior markets commentator, mike san totalliy is with us to explain more. mike, we're specifically talking about 2100 for the s&p which we had no problem breaking through in 2015. but it seems like this ceiling in 2016. why is that? >> actually, kayla, you discharge bumped through it many times in 2015 but never got far. a percent and a half, really, above 2100. i went back. we spent six months crossing and recrossing that 2100 line between february and august of last year. in fact, we did it 48 different days. that's one-third of all trading days during that span. we actually crossed this line. and never really got a whole lot of mommy it tunnel past it. what's interesting now, as we set sit less than 2%, is we almost at the same valuation, based on forecast operator learnings as we were one year ago. so arguably, we're kind of stretching up toward the upper end of that valuation range that has contained stocks for a while. so that's kind of the negative,
kind of selling opportunity type argument. i guess you could play the other side, which says, hey, a year ago, we had the same valuation. we were about to get three straight quarters of negative earnings. we didn't know that at the time. the bear market in oil was accelerating at the time, and, of course, went to depthses we didn't foresee. and also the fed was more of a wild card than now. so maybe we're in a somewhat better fundamental position to weather these levels. >> although in the near term, mike, we have morgan stanley out this morning saying don't try to be a cockroach this time around. don't try and make it through the rubble for what we are about to see in the markets. do you agree with that? do you think that near-term we have a lot of weakness coming as we go into earnings? >> i think -- i don't know that we have a ton of weakness in terms of how the market digests earnings. we definitely have an extremely negative preannouncement season. we have most companies basically saying things are not looking as bright. i wonder to what extent the market has already kind of figured that out. there is some risk, i think, in some of the cyclical sectors
like the industrials getting some down grades today. the stocks have run up and it's unlikely the earnings reports will be all that bright. the big question, i think, during earning season, how much has the market figured that out already and is ready to turn to other things. you know, one other feature, kayla, of this rally that we have seen is really the defensive nature of the leadership. if you look at the consumer staple stocks, my joke is that this year's fang would called food, soda or soap, because household product companies trading at expensive levels and everyone wants a buy for the dividend. so it's a different market tone, even if it's a similar level and a similar rhythm to the market. >> yeah. a lot of discussion this morning, as well, about breadth, mike. laszlo ber eveny looking at percentage of s&p names. is the market anticipating something like a top, because of what breadth is doing? >> i don't know that it's necessarily. i think the conventional wisdom, you look at a chart and say wow it seems smart to be a couple
seller than a buyer. and this is set up like in november when we got to 2100 in november. everyone was talking about year-end rally is going to continue. seasonal strength, we're out of the woods, had our correction. i feel like now people are more cautious, maybe less invested, more defensively positioned. i think that's a net positive. maybe we see how an initial pullback plays out. and then take it from there. >> so the valuations of the fang stocks obviously carried the market in 2015. facebook is the only one in that bunch that is positive so far this year. do you think that the market and investors should be going back into those stocks because they have been beaten down or do you think the food, soda, soap names will continue to carry us forward? >> i don't know that they have been beaten down. you're right, facebook is that one standout. of course, apple is not one of fang, but that is also a standout. kind of interesting, because it doesn't have the towering
valuation. i do think that growth stocks -- stocks that represent higher risk appetite should probably start to participate a little bit more than the defensive stuff if this rally is going to continue. it reminds me, you know, in 2012 we had that really nasty selloff in 2011. you had a recovery into the beginning of 2012, another election year and also very defensive. people were kind of reluctantly participating in stocks by buying stocks that look like bonds, which is kind of what they're doing now. then broadened out from there. i think you would want to see it broaden out maybe into some of the higher growth. what's interesting is, why did fang perform so well last year? because the world said, we are scarce of growth. we don't have growth everywhere we look. we have to buy up the names that have some of that organic growth. this year, everybody is saying the world is scarce of reliable yield. so we're going to buy those stocks that have that reliable yield. so it really is a different orientation, be again, even if the index level looks familiar. >> great context to have as we
begin the second quarter. always appreciate your insights. mike san oily at headquarters. before buying oculus, facebook ceo mark zuckerberg stopped to talk and get advice from our next guest. jeremy bailenson head of stanford's virtual reality lab and literally wrote the book on virtual reality's impact. he's going to join us in a moment. you can stream it all.eans like that anthony michael hall movie where he fights with the girl. the one where he gets rejected by the girl. even stream the one where he creates the girl. with unlimited data, you can stream all the anthony michael hall movies you want. i wonder what he's up to these days maybe he's shopping in an at&t store? get unlimited data and your fourth line free when you have at&t wireless and directv. plus, get up to $650 in credits to help you switch.
the situation for the vets. because the vets all over our country -- all over our country, the vets are suffering. and frankly, we take care of illegal immigrants than we take care of our vets and it's going to change. but i said, unless they become president. because we'll do things that will be good. number one, i'm going to renegotiate trade deals, and they're going to be fair. and we'll make deals and have the greatest negotiates in the world. carl icahn endorsed me. so many unbelievable endorsements. we have the greatest in the world, greatest business people. we don't use them. we use political hacks to make these massive trade deals with foreign countries. and we don't want to use political hacks any more. it's over. we've got to use our best. we have to use our finest. and we don't do that. so that's going to start happening. but with nato. so nato, we are paying a tremendous amount of money for nato. and it's not fair, folks. it's not fair.
and i would get together and i'll say to the countries that haven't paid, and they're paying not their fair share, and they know they're getting away with murder. but why should they do it? nobody calls, nobody talks to them and says, you know, we're defending you and you're not paying. i want them to pay up. and i want them to pay delinquent. because for years they haven't been paying. this isn't like it just stopped. for many years they haven't been paying. i want them to pay dlelinquende. and if they want to leave nato, that's okay with me. and frankly, if it affects nato to the point where we're not going to have nato, we'll come up with something else, don't worry about it. we just have to do it. you always have to be able -- in deal-making, you always have to be able to walk. you have to be able to walk. so i took a lot of criticism. they said, here was the headline. "donald trump wants to dissolve nato." that's not what i said. and i said -- and this isn't the "washington post."
this is others. i said, "donald trump wants to have people pay." donald trump wants to adjust for terrorism, which we have to do. donald trump wants to do all of the things that i explained. donald trump wants to get all of the back money that's owed to us by all of these countries who have had a free ride or close to a free ride. and donald trump wants to make the united states rich again and great again. and wants to help other nations. i want to help other nations. but we don't want to be the fools. we don't want to be the dumb patsees that we are all over the world. because that's what's -- >> that is donald trump on the campaign trail in wisconsin ahead of tomorrow's primary. of course, he has been making comments about the country being headed for what he calls a massive recession, saying it is a terrible time to invest in stocks. if he makes any other comments on the economy, we will bring them to you. which candidates are best for the stock market and regulating banks, business and wall street. we probed just that.
and steve liesman back at headquarters with the cnbc all america economic survey. >> yeah, kayla. we also have an answer to whether or not americans agree with donald trump on investing in the stock market. let's go there first. we'll get to the other things in just a second here. look, we're approaching sort of record numbers -- or record low percentage of americans who think this is a good time to invest. all adults down 31%, a decline from the prior quarter. and you can see one of the lower percentages we've had. and our financial leap. that means if you have $75 no,000 of income and $50,000 or more in the stock market, they're down 49%. rare for this group to be below 50%. and that is approaching or equal to the low we saw in november 2012 when we had one of the fiscal cliff outbreaks we had. let's take a look at the other issue here of stock ownership. 53% of the public owning stocks. that's sort of towards the high side. it goes up and down between 49
and 53. let's go to the issue of breaking up banks. 36% of the public says the government should have the power to do so. 55% said the government should not interfere in the size of the banks. interesting political breakdown here. when we look at dems, 54% think the government should interfere and republicans, 47%. look at the democratic support for not interfering. that's what brings that number up to 55%. pretty bipartisan right there. okay. now, which candidate is best for -- drum roll, please. the stock market, 31% for trump. 17 for clinton. 32 say none. regulating the banks, 26 for trump, 16 for clinton. 25% for bernie sanders right there. and how about regulating business? again, trump beating clinton, 25 to 18 with none doing quite well. and you can see sanders beats clinton right there. so some competition for the democratic front runner from her left when it comes to regulating business. one other thing i want to show you here. which is an overall clinton and
trump are pretty even steven when it comes to overall issues on the economy. 24-24 on u.s. economy. 21-21 on wages. 21-22. so jon, while we see clinton beats trump in head-to-head contests, when it comes to critical issues on the onomy, the two are pretty even. jon? >> very interesting, steve. and perhaps it speaks to how the candidates marketing of themselves is playing out. steve liesman with those survey results. meanwhile, facebook into consumer virtual reality, oculus rift shipping now. not all have received it yet. how far away are we from virtual reality becoming mainstream for consumers? and what's it going to take to get there? jeremy bailenson, director of stanford university's virtual interaction lab. his work reasonable quoted by the supreme court in outlining effects of immersive media. engineer jeremy, great to have you. i want to get straight to
questions of ethics and morality. i've tried a number of different headsets. now we worry about the impact of bullying in social media. given what we saw a few days ago with twitter sort of corrupting microsoft's tay and what we're dealing with now in encryption rules, could we end up with a society where there are whole realistic virtual spaces encrypted and we don't know how people are interacting and what the impact is on them? >> first of all, thanks for starting with such an easy question. let's get right into it. so virtual reality is an experience. you put the helmet on and you are immediately transported. you feel like you're there. so what i like to say is vr puts a game factor on any other media experience. you're not watching something. you are doing something. so from an ethical standpoint, any experience you could do at the touch of a button, you can
now be in vr, you could be traveling somewhere else, in a violent video game. you could be in a military simulation. if any programmer can dream it, you can live it. and the brain treats it as real. >> so are you making any kind of judgment, a., on whether that's a good or bad thing, and b., on whether we need guidelines, protections, rules on how this is rolled out? at least so that people know what they're getting themselves into? >> so we absolutely need guidelines. and do i think it's a good thing? this would be, jon, like me asking you, is the video feed that we're getting now -- is this a good thing or a bad thing? you can use it to tell amazing stories. and you can use it to show horrible images that are counter productive. virtual reality is a medium, like any other medium, about what we do with it. do we need guidelines? absolutely. the tag line i'm developing -- so i've been studying virtual reality for close to 20 years, as it's becoming mainstream, what i think about is you should do things in vr you can't do
anywhere else. but you should never do something you wouldn't actually do. >> huh. we already break that rule when it comes to video games, right? first-person shooters really popular. and most people, hopefully, who play these wouldn't actually do that in real life. are you saying we need to be more careful in vr than we are with other types of media? >> first let me be clear that we do not yet have too much data on violent video games inside vr. my personal opinion from having spent a lot of time here is i actually don't think people are going to want to play violent video games in vr. right now, you can play these games and you can play for three or four hours a day and you can still fundamentally be a decent person. when the way you are shooting somebody is you actually hold up the gun and the blood splashes on your chest or you have a knife and you're actually feeling tendons pop in the neck, i just don't think people want to do that. it just feels too real. >> jeremy, in terms of
industries that will be disrupted by vr, we've gone through the list of real estate, we have talked about travel. car manufacturing. obviously, sports. does one industry need to lead this into mass adoption? i mean, people make jokes about porn guiding the internet into its heyday. who needs to do it here? >> so the one you didn't mention, which i think is the huge elephant in the room is social. so right now, think about the amount of time we spend on skype, texting, e-mail. we know that people like to be around virtual others. but the reason why we still fly across the country is to get this virtual handshake, this -- you really feel like you're face-to-face with someone. i've seen a couple companies in the valley, one in particular, called high fidelity, where you -- it just feels like the avatar is in the room and you can feel their touch and -- you know, literally, we call this social presence. it solves the need for travel. the reason why this is a home run financially is because everybody else has to create content. you've got to create all the 3-d
models and the story and the narrative. with social, you just build the architecture and then the people just talk. so the content creation has taken off the table. >> well, jeremy bailenson, i'm glad we've got people like you thinking deeply about this stuff. i hope your faith in human nature bears out. jeremy bailenson from stanford, thanks so much. >> thanks so much. up next, it's being called the biggest data leak of all time. what you need to know about the panama papers. plus, european markets just about to close. how did the markets fare across the pond? we'll have that for you after a short break. ave medicare parts a and b and want more coverage, guess what? you could apply for a medicare supplement insurance plan whenever you want. no enrollment window. no waiting to apply. that means now may be a great time to shop for an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. medicare doesn't cover everything. and like all standardized medicare supplement
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download the app and get 15% off your first order with code "bulk." good morning, everyone. i'm sue herrera. here is your cnbc news update at this hour. the first group of migrants to be deported under a european union plan to limit the amount of migration to europe arriving in turkey from the greek island of lesbos. some 400 nonsyrians migrants and refugees were scheduled to arrive. paul ryan meeting in jerusalem, the first nation ryan has visited since becoming speaker in october. both saying israel enjoys the support, both in the white house and in congress. a volcano in central mexico exploded monday. the eruption reaching a height of more than 6,500 feet. that volcano lies just 50 miles southeast of mexico city. and protesters camping outside the office of duke
university's president a fourth day. demanding the firing of three administrators, including one accused of using a racial slur against a parking attendant. they are also calling for a $15 minimum wage for all campus workers. duke's president met on sunday with the protesters. you're up to date. back downtown to "squawk alley." >> thank you very much, sue. let's bring in simon hobbs to count you down for the close, which actually happened already. >> three weeks of losses in western europe. we have got gains. we still have got gains, though we are off our highs if you took a weighted average. friday into today is when the ecb doubles down on its qe and you see the bond markets continuing to rally as a benchmark. you can have a look at what's happening to the ten-year german yield, moving further into negative territory. actually senior member of the ecb suggesting acting forcefully and will continue to act forcefully. there is more ammunition if they think inflation expectations are
continuing to deteriorate. so you hear basically 13 basis points. remember the low we got in april of last year intraday was five basis points. so we're still positive but coming awfully close to those lows. the big move is today on the stock market in europe. the four french telecom operators. remember there was a deal on the table to take those four to three. that is basically broken down. they're not making money because these guys iliad came in as a low-cost competitor. martin wig, the billionaire, trying to sell his $10 billion euros to orange, which is 23% controlled effectually by the socialist government in france and couldn't do a deal. huge amount of falling out about voting rights moving forward. so you can see the way in which those stocks deteriorated throughout the session. meantime, with a strong political bias, the imf is having to defend itself against an accusation through wikileaks that it was essentially prepared to push greece to the point of
default by leaving the negotiations in order to get the germans to give them debt reduction. this is the letter -- the headline of a letter that le guard sent to the greek prime minister denying that is the case. she says a negotiating tactic is simply nonsense. back do you guys. >> thank you, simon. and a massive leak of documents, known as the panama papers, has revealed offshore holdings of dozens of politicians and public figures around the world, raising questions about corruption and financial disclosures. eamon javers is in d.c. >> they're comparing this to the edward snowden leaks and wiki leaks in 2010. it's called the panama papers incident. it broke around the world yesterday. a consortium of investigative journalists starting in germany broke a series of stories through the day yesterday. here's what we know so far about the panama papers. about 11 million documents are
leaked as a part of this overall leak. the documents come from a panama-based law firm called monthsic phenomenon saka, helps companies set up shell corporations and also allegedly helps them set up situations where they can have anonymous members of the board of directors or false members of the board of directors to help hide assets for global folks around the world. we're looking at reports now that 12 current or former world leaders maintain the offshore shell companies as a result of the information that's come out of leaks just so far. russian leader vladimir putin's name is not mentioned specifically in these documents themselves. but his close circle of advisers and friends is mentioned, and there's an effort here to track a lot of the money that is close to the people who are close to vladimir putin. we have a statement here from the law firm itself. here's what they say. we have not once in nearly 40 years been charged with criminal wrongdoing. we're proud of the work we do, notwithstanding recent and willful attempts by some to mischaracterize it.
so guys, one of the big questions in this is going to be who leaked this information, and why? is there an edward snowden here of global international finance now? back to you. >> eamon, so much discussion today about the coverage of this story. or the lack of it. do you think the world is guilty in some part of snowden fatigue, leak fatigue? >> i think that's part of it, carl. part of it is also just the way in which this story got out there. remember, it was a german newspaper that received the initial leak. they worked with the international consortium of investigative journalists. that group chose select media participants to pair with on this story. so they gave those folks a several-month heads up. and they were running at these documents for a long time. checking them, vetting them, making sure they were real before they all popped their stories simultaneously. now a lot of the other media organizations that weren't part of it are going to struggle to catch up here. i bet you're going to see a whole bunch more stories over the coming days, carl. >> and especially, eamon, just given the scale of this leak, 11.5 million documents, it will
take a lot to get through them. thank you in washington. so what does the panama papers leak reveal about where the world's wealthy have parked their billions? robert frank has more on that. robert, what do we know? >> kayla, thes about of dollars stashed offshore by the world's wealthy have helped support everything from miami real estate to fine art. press reports say 29 billionaires use offshore structures involving monthsic, the panama law firm. very few of these billionaires are named. but forbes saying many appear to be from russia and eastern europe. what's interesting is that no american billionaires were u.s. clients have been named so far. u.s. assets, they have become a favorite destination for some of that money. the miami herald reporting yesterday that 19 foreign nationals created offshore entities that purchased miami real estate, and eight of those foreign nationals have been linked to corruption or tax evasion or embezzlement the in their home states.
half all real estate purchases in miami are all cash and overseas buyers bought $6 billion worth of home in southern florida last year. so that's about a third of all local spending on real estate. offshoring is perfectly legal in many cases but has helped support the art market. reports say russian billionaire dmitry purchased more than $2 billion worth of art, including a famous he bought for $118 million, the piece sold by steve cohen. his trusts were already disclosed last year and were created for a estate planning purposes, were legal. it shows that growing scrutiny of this offshoring could lead to more calls for regulation and add additional pressure on both the art and real estate markets, which right now are a little fragile, given the financial markets. back over to you. >> good stuff, robert. thank you so much. robert frank back at hq. when we return, bill gates investing in a company trying to bring reliable wi-fi to cars, trains and planes. more on that.
but first, rick santelli, what are you watching today? >> you know, i'm watching the markets this week digest last week's important data points on the jobs scene. and boy, here we are. not a lot of volatility. is this the way all of 2016 may be? it's possible. and it might be waiting for fiscal policy, but one thing is for sure. investors rejected the old norm of coming back, and that's the topic for the day. hi...i'm pamela yellen. you may have read my bestselling book "the bank on yourself revolution". over the last 25 years, i've researched more than 450 financial products. i found that one of the best-kept secrets to help you plan for your retirement is the home equity conversion mortgage. it's a line of credit for homeowners age 62 or older. and it's offered by a company you can trust- one reverse mortgage, a quicken loans company! call one reverse mortgage now to get the details. their licensed experts will tell you if you're eligible, show you the line of credit
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coming up, why the weaker dollar could keeps stocks climbing. and credit squeeze outs, apple to its focus list. we'll speak to the analyst behind the call. and oversold and overbought stocks in the market found, and how you can trade them down. see you in 15. now to rick santelli with the santelli exchange. >> thanks very much, jon. you know, maybe we should all have come to the final conclusion, or at least change our hypothesis based on what we have seen year-to-date for the markets. i think it was clear that when the december tightening of 2015, january completely rejected coming to a new norm. okay? they don't want -- excuse me. the old normal. they like this new norm. they don't want to recalibrate. and that rejection continues to show up in a lot of ways. if you look at the total return for a tenure, remember, it settled a few basis points under
230 last year. here we hover at 177. total return year-to-date, a couple of tenths under 5%. now i know that we're in positive territory, and there are dividend issues out of two of three of the major stock indexes. the nasdaq still light in negative territory while the s&p and dow lightly in positive territory. so what can we learn or what should we change by this? as i talked to traders on the floor, it's pretty simple. basically, they say that what the fed has done, and you could argue whether it's good or bad. but marginal companies are breathing because they have access to capital. think the high yield market. might have gotten messy, but has improved as of late. so if we look at the economy and the stock market, monetary policy kind of like a car, the front wheel drive, the only thing that's moving this car, the only way to transmit policy to keep this car rolling seems to be the stock market, a., and
to a lesser extent but highly correlated the weaker dollar. on the latter, the change in outlook for the fed has made a huge difference after the rejection by investors in january. so how can we look at what's going on and put it in a simple context? the music is going to keep playing by the fed. that we can agree on today than we could have just six weeks ago. and b., that there's no way monetary policy is ever going to totally fix what many thought it could fix when we embarked on much of these plans and policies and strategies in '07 and '08. it's going to end up being fiscal policy. it's an election year. so most likely, you'll get a rate hike at the end of the year after the election. but we can't really say what that fiscal policy is going to be. there is no way to tell. listen to all the news, whether it's on trump or it's on hillary or bernie. pretty tough. and much of the outlook of these politicians are differing. so what's the answer? the answer is going to be most
likely hang you're unchanged on the year, watch treasuries refrain, and look for a boatload of volatility when we swear in new politicians. because all of this will fall on their shoulders, because the fed has kept it together, but it can't make it better. back to you, jon. >> all right. thank you, rick. and cnbc and "inc" magazine kicking off in seattle today. we're live in the city, pro filing. better weather than in new york, too. hey, kate. >> hey, jon. we have experienced unreliable connectivity on the go, and one startup is out to change that. plus, they have come a long way since appearing on our cnbc disrupter 50 list back in 2014. take a look. >> you can't see it, but in the top of this car, there is a flat satellite antenna out to revolutionize the world of mobile communications. the product was created based in redman, washington, and launched in 2012 by nathan coons.
tell us how the technology works in the car. >> it's doing what otherwise you would need a big dish to do, sitting on top of the car. >> they have raised $120 million so far from investors, including bill gates and is manufacturing in japan with sharp electronics. the startup is offering a leaner, more cost effective and reliable model that looks more like a solar panel. they have also had partnerships with toyota. in partnership with toyota, this four-runner car just took a cross-country trip, demonstrating the connectivity capability. the product aims to replace the spotty wi-fi connections available today on trains, in the air and more. >> the service is bad because of the spectrum available. so there is not a lot of bandwidth you can push through that spectrum. in space, there is a lot more spectrum. and our antenna allows us to capture that spectrum and use it. >> while the technology is not yet available direct to consumers, coons would like to bridge that gap. >> in the future, i would like to make an antenna where we will
overlay and have a solar panel and antenna together so you can get something in the mail, throw it on top of your roof and have wi-fi with no other connections. >> now, the first product is set to ship at the end of this year to be used in the maritime industry in 2017. we have a great lineup in seattle, kicking off tomorrow. we have billion dollar buyers kevin o'leary, greg glassman and many more. so you won't want to miss it. back over to you. >> thanks so much, kate rogers, as iconic kicks off in seattle. as baseball season begins, a bit of controversy over how tickets are sold and new restrictions on how they can be resold. more details on that, after a break.
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behind. yankees taking aim at stubhub this season, now prohibiting prohibit at home tickets from being used to interyankee stadium. what does this mean for fans? joining us at post 9, one of our favorites, ceo jesse lawrence. good to have you back. >> thanks. >> so how are the economics of the ticket business changing? based on what the yankees and now the red sox are doing too? >> i think what teams have realized, there's more value in controlling the market in a way that gives them access to both primary and secondary. the red sox this year have sort of followed the yankees' suit into secondary, which they did three years ago. the yankees this year are -- the division between primary and secondary, making people use digital is really forcing them to a back into the yankees' ecosystem which a lot of people think is bad. but based on increased supply in the marketplace, could be a good thing. >> so the rapid inflation in secondary is sort of capped in a sense? >> well, it introduces another -- the yankees don't sell out 10,000 seats every game. the secondary market has 5,000 seats every game. if you think about it as a
holistic market, 15,000 seats. a lot. people think of the market second dear. we're thinking more about primary and secondary. >> the yaervegs have an ecosystem to draw fans back into lesser teams throughout the country maybe don't have the heft the yankees do. do you think this is something that can be replicated or not? >> i think the yankees and red sox will be the first leaders, because the first movers, because there's more money there. i think over time, as the stubhub deal comes up with mlb, i think it's in two years, you start to see teams picking and choosing the solution right for them. it's going to be different, really, for every team and every market. >> is there anything that's going to shift the nature of the overall market? because it seems like more and more, every day families can't afford that iconic trip to the ballpark. is technology going to really turn the tide in any way, or might it slow down the price increases? >> i actually think -- baseball is one of the cheapest tickets out there. there is very few games in an mlb season you can't get in for under 20 bucks. so that's the good thing. the difference between primary
and secondary in that context might be a few bucks. but i think baseball -- the big marquis games may be some price issues. if you want to sit down low, there's price issues. i still think baseball is one of the most accessible, if not the most accessible ticket market out there. >> what explains chicago? 30% is a rlot. based on the postseason last year? is that it. >>? they're favored to win the world series. >> i'm trying not to jinx it, but yes. but you wouldn't -- that's not going to as contract league. it's more about specific teams that have proven themselves lately. >> absolutely. so the mets were the second biggest increase. not surprising. still a lot less than the cubs. but number two in the market. they're actually number five in the market with 107 average price. >> there is a small sporting event this evening in houston, the ncaa finals for men's basketball. what do ticket prices look like coming out of the weekend match-ups, going into tonight? >> this is actually the second most expensive final game we
have tracked in the last six years. only behind last year, duke and wisconsin. it seems the average price is 615 bucks. last year a little over 700. it seems that north carolina teams drive expensive tickets when it comes to final four. >> not just any north carolina teams. the tobacco road legendary -- >> in the name. >> that's right. >> i would have a horse in this race. so i'm obviously bias. but are there any statistics that would indicate whose fans are going to be more represented in tonight's games? >> we have seen more buying volume from unc fans. it's a bigger alumni base overall. the villanovas is pretty hungry. been a long time. that's a big event. not as many alum in the villanova universe as unc. >> wisdom in crowds, right? we'll see what happens tonight. come back soon. we'll talk about concerts and everything else going on. >> absolutely. thank you, guys. when we come back for more on opening day and the ticket prices, catch mlb commissioner
their 200 day moving average. credit suisse saying the company's potential and annuity like revenue from services being underestimated by the market. their target goes from 140 to 150. they're talking services doubling by 2020. they think average users spend goes to 113 bucks from 61. >> apple -- everybody had a reason why the stock was going down below 106, below 100. now that it's up, you know, 111, there's no reason. it's just back up. >> well, the journal last week said if apple is going to get groekt from anywhere, it has to be from services based on their performance of hardware. that would be a pretty big bet to make for a company that size. >> it has to be from services. unless the i phone 7 is great in which case from somewhere else. >> we didn't delve into the facebook deutsche note today. they're calling for potential growth reset as q1 gets reported. are you nervous going into that? >> these quarters for facebook to me matter a little bit less.
it depends how they perform toward the end of the year and how these price increases they've done in ads gets sustained. >> we'll see if things get heated up earnings wise in a few days. good to be back with you guys. >> good to have you. >> to headquarters, scott wapner and the half. ♪ guys, thanks so much. welcome to "halftime report" i'm scott wapner. the weakening u.s. dollar and why it's the gift that could keep the rally going. with us today, joe terranova, jim lebenthal and rebecca patterson, chief investment officer. the story for stocks lately has been the dollar, dropping versus the euro and other currencies over the past few months. it could be a nice rescue for earnings, which are good about to be reported as well. is this the surprise catalyst to keep stocks climbing? that debate beginnings now, joe. i begin with you. dollar index