tv Squawk Alley CNBC April 14, 2016 11:00am-12:01pm EDT
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>> welcome to squawk alley for a thursday. john fort is out today but kayla and myself at post 9 joined by mike santolli. good morning, guys. it's a little trepidation ahead of china gdp tonight. the season is heating up and bank of america in the green after earnings and revenue beat estimates but they're down 18% on concerns about the global economy and topping expectations. delta, in fact all the airlines seeing nice after profits beat estimates. they're impacted by a stronger dollar but their fuel costs are coming way in. after 14% in two months will earnings will seen as good enough? >> the early evidence is maybe. honestly it seems like we can at least support these levels if oil cooperates and all the other things hold in place. it does seem as if i think the reaction to the banks yesterday shows you that people were
leaning too hard against that group. didn't own enough of them. they had a little bit of a buying panic. in that context the fact that bank of america can add into those gains yesterday is probably a good thing. outside of the banks i'm looking toward next week the industrials. it's been a really key sector. quitely out performing after a bad 2015. a lot of the chart readers are saying this is the group right now. it's a china play and everything all in one. >> the question is whether the market was not giving the banks enough credit because it was the most beaten down sector. >> in terms of the industrials they're not showing evidence that it's for the better and really it's the china panic play so they got way beaten down in february and january and by the way, since january 25th, 3-m
came out with a descent outlook. that's the moment the industrials sparked to the upside. >> you point to some of them being used as a source of funds to make it more aggressive in growth and tech. are you seeing that? >> it was the story yesterday. it's really early days if that's going to happen but yesterday you did see the staples and utilities and telecoms down. they are the ones that lead this entire yesterday actually. really the only strong points. they did start to buy the tech stocks yesterday. small caps way out performed. also on a very short-term basis, speculative indications that the market started to run hot yesterday and today in terms of grabbing for upside plays in terms of call options but it's only recently. s&p still hasn't been able to pierce 2100 but the dow is just 80 points away from 18,000. psychologically this time around does it matter? >> i think the way it matters is these have been levels that have felt smart to sell before so
it's not so much that hey we're here. 18,000. let's have a sense of achievement. it's much more about the smart may was to fade the market when it got to this point. last year in 2100 the market crossed it 55 separate days. it's more than one out of every three or four trading days. the market toggled back and forth around that line. haven't been able to get much more back to date. >> there's some apparel that might have been brought back. hats, shirts, the like if we get there. >> we'll hear about it on social but are you seeing anything different about this environment other than those other 50 some odd days? >> the difference is i think there's a little more skepticism. the starkest difference is today verses the autumn rally of last year. we came off the september lows and you got to 2100 in early november and then i think all the talk was year end rally, seasonal effects are in our
favor and you don't have the same talk on this back toward 2100. >> stick around. >> that's a net positive. people understand that. you're not going anywhere. a lot more to get to this hour. the cfo will be joining closing bell in a first on cnbc interview. tune into that. another black eye according to the journal federal regulators could try to ban the companies founder from the business for at least two years. meg was in the city with that story. >> that's right in another big scoop for the wall street journal he uncovered a level that the centers for medicare and medicaid service had sent back in march essentially saying this on going audit of their laboratory their answers were insufficient saying essential through laboratory's allegation of compliance was not credible and evidence was not acceptable. with this comes the threat of sanctions including a potential ban of the founder.
now the company had ten days to respond to this. they said in a statement last night they did respond within that 10 daytime frame. they said we received the letter and we have responded. theranos has not received any sanctions at this time. if they do we'll work with cms to address all of their concerns. this is hypothetical right now but the sanctions on the table if cms deems their response insufficient again include revoking the certification of that newark, california laboratory. with that comes the prohibition from owning and operating in this industry for two years. that would effect the arizona laboratory which does 90% of its business. so this is what we're talking about when we're talking about regulators threatening a ban from the industry. so the next step here is to see how cms responds to what they got back from theranos. >> fascinating story that just continues to evolve. one story involves the make up
of the board which on paper looked like the most impressive board you have seen. >> >> it's most of what you heard about the company. you haven't heard a lot about what it has meant for the valuation of the company and all the rest of it. obviously just fascinating and also the flip side of the whole story coming in which is somehow, this individual had created this kind of new way despite the fact that being a very crowded area for very large companies. >> you hear about these start ups being essentially bulls in a china shop and some companies argue it's a freshman mistake. it's being the industry standard and doing it in a certain way
and then we'll figure it out later and that's the model. >> the next chapter here will be profiling start ups trying to play in this space. they're going to get scrutiny. >> that's a really great point. i have been hearing from people in the health care industry that they're very frustrated by this situation and limits the ability to get funding. what a lot of people say mike was making a really fantastic point is ask questions and get it later and that doesn't work with this industry and you saw it with 23 and 3 getting slapped down and saying we understand that regular withdrew lay tos are a much more important part of this industry than they are in other silicon valley start ups? >> does it stifle innovation on a net basis? >> well, funding is limited to other start ups that have great ideas. that could hinder it and that's what folks in the industry are worried about.
>> everybody is watching to see what he reports next. mike is going to stick around a little bit longer. >> meanwhile t markets have been hanging in there just above the flat line. the s&p is up by 0.3% right now. the dow is up by just a little bit more than that. 17 points. gains by the dow s&p and nasdaq if they hold on to them will be their third straight. that hasn't happened in a month. nasdaq has just gone negative. shares of seagate falling after the company cut the outbreak because of weaker demand. that stock down close to 20% this morning. carl quite a move for a stock that many had been betting on in recent months. >> when we come back, a cnbc exclusive interview with former fed chair alan greenspan. his take on interest rates inversions and a lot more. muscle tech earnings quickly approaching. we'll talk to the top analyst about why facebook is a pretty
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the morning and meeting with former fed chairman alan greenspan. >> i am here with chairman greenspan. always a pleasure. nice to meet you. >> they also found u.s. growth forecast for this year. you have a theory on what's holding back the u.s. economy. what is it? >> i think you first have to look at where the problems are. and they immediately come out when you begin to examine productivity. going across the international spectrum with remarkably few exceptions every single major country, developed country and a number of developing countries are sagging badly and the last five years the growth rate has
been 5.5%. and depending on how you measure it and that's basically true of everybody. i listed an analysis of all the countries. i picked up 2-thirds out of productive growth rate of less than 1% over the past five years. >> is this related to the fact that corporate investment has been low? wages have been too low. companies are not spending enough. profits are such a decline for the third quarter in a row. what's causing all of that? >> it's basically -- it's basically the issue of corporate profitability as it's seen in the future and as a result what you're seeing is corporate investment has come down very
significantly as a percent of gdp everywhere and when corporate investment falls and productive sags the question is why did corporate investment decline? well if you look at it in the bookkeeping sense, it's because gross domestic savings everywhere across the spectrum, political spectrum has been severely undercut in virtually every single country. >> we need to cut entitlements. >> the demographics, the populations are aging. japan's numbers go. >> so there's a political problem. >> it's fundamentally a political problem. it's a political problem. most things are political problems. this is a very difficult problem to solve. >> i know you leave the
political coverage to your wife but who is going to solve this problem? >> my wife. >> are any other candidates talking seriously? >> we could have solved the problem in the united states a number of years ago. that's a very clever way of controlling the deficit which is what the problem ultimately is and with bipartisan support. >> meantime it's all on monetary policy to do the dirty work. >> it's done everything it can
they're not helping that much and since that determines whether or not you're getting an effect of what has happened that obviously is done what you expect it to do and bring long-term rates down and price earnings ratio in the equity markets go up and no real impact on lending and the economy is picking up. >> it's the net positive.
>> it's best understood in the context of the fact that there are certain currencies that are much stronger. ten year italian euro note yield is significantly above where switzerland would be. now that spread will stay there irrespective of the overall interest rate. all of a sudden you're going to keep that space and rates are going to turn negative so the demand exceeds and it is negative interest rates. >> so this is dangerous. is that your view?
>> financial intermediaries require positive interest rates. i wouldn't blame it on the negative interest rates. it got us to where we are. you will always get negative interest rates if there is a spread. now the spread exists because of the quality and security is difficult. you can't change that and ultimately you solve negative interest rates when people decide that they're getting tired of foregoing currency and stick it in the fault. >> which we are saying very quickly in the moment that we have left, i want to ask you about oil because you have been thinking a lot about the impact of the economy and deflationary
pressures. has oil bottomed? >> it's too soon to tell. at the moment we have about 2 to 2.5 million barrels a day global surplus it's caused a pretty large number across the board of producers who cannot function at those levels. what is occurring is we're seeing a gradual decline in the united states down about 600 barrels a day. >> we don know if that's enough. >> and it's going to go lower because most of them are still able to get cash flow but they can't meet their overhead costs
new drilling and new expansion will not occur because the price is too low. you need about $60 barrel in the united states to really rejuvena rejuvenate shale. >> i know you have been thinking a lot about this. thank you for joining us here at the headquaters. back to you guys on squawk alley. >> thanks so much. sarah in d.c. mike seems to be saying that the problem with growth in this country is a political problem. is that impassable? >> a political problem because of a failure to have a long-term solution on, you know, fiscal issues comes out in favor of the frame work and makes all kinds of sense. i still think it doesn't get to why everyone is in this condition. you also talked about the productive gap which to me is
striking because he was credited and productive is growing adjusted to that. is it more dem graphics or something else. >> we'd like to have that problem now. what i thought was interesting was and it's broken and because of that savings go up and investments come down and you wind up with a negative spiral. >> negative interest rates that's the back word impact of negative rates. what is the response to people that have money? you save more. that's not exactly what they're trying to get at. >> monetary policy has done everything it can. >> not helping very much it says. >> thanks as always. mike santonlli joining us today. >> facebook snagging a high profile google employee. we'll have the details when we come back. if you have medicare
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a company hiring regina that ran google's advanced technology group. the hardware part of the moon shot division. she will do something similar on facebook working on experimental hardware. dugan was the director. not sure if it signals facebook getting more into hardware. of course oculus was first there but she will be working on something called building 8. >> yes. interesting how corporate defections have been a big story this week. go pro managing to steal talent from apple and that resulted in a big game yesterday and nothing on the level, much more than facebook is getting today. >> these aren't necessarily 8-k level employees where you get a filing with their salary but curiosity does it. >> we love intrigue. that's for sure. meanwhile, some intrigue in europe as their session is going to end in about 2.5 minutes. simon is back at post 9 to wrap that up. >> a relatively flat session.
you have an out performance from italy because the banks are still moving higher but an underperformance from the united kingdom which is flat overall. bank of england tint move on interest rates today but there's already softness in the u.k. economy from what is happening in advance of the vote to leave the european union and in particular it says the capital expenditure and commercial property transactions are being delayed so a warning there from the bank of england. for the record the deflation we got has been revised overall and the big companies at the start of earnings season in europe. the likes of uni lever are suggesting their volume growth in europe has been erased by declining prices. there you see the main movers today, burberry warning about soft demand in the future.
>> it's again talking about softness in advance of the brexit vote on june 23. that's partly because there's a surge working it's way out of the system as a result of tax changes. again, on brexit, we now have the opposition leader, jeremy korbin today, a socialist through and through suggesting he will support the campaign to keep britain in the european union despite the fact that he voted against it in 1975. that's important. he carries the bulk of 9 million labor party voters. one of the 28 members of the european union when he came to new york earlier today on squawk box. he gave this warning about what will happen if the united kingdom votes to leave the european union. take a listen. >> this brexit does happen if
you'll generate a long period of uncertainty because a legal dispute will start between the u.k. and eventually hopefully not in my way of he seeing things and commission the other country. how do we disentangle many legal obligations. this will put a break to the investment in europe and this is not good. >> the italian finance minister on squawk box this morning. giex to you. >> on the heels of what mario told us a few days ago. >> yes. >> he did not believe in the end they would exit. >> let's hope so. as far as many people are concerned. >> thank you. when we come back, jack lou talking to cnbc about tax inversions and responding to claims that these new rules came as a shock. >> i think that it should have been no surprise to anyone that we were working on this because we have been working on it for a long time. >> plenty more of our exclusive with the pressure ri secretary in a moment. ♪
says russia sured up the syrian army to the point where it can conduct military operations despite a russian military draw down. he was speaking during a marathon call in tv show for the russian people. according to various reports it appears donald trump's campaign manager will not be prosecuted for an alleged assault on a reporter in florida last month. the palm beach county state attorney scheduled a news conference to announce his decision not to prosecute. and sharp electronics unveiling the world's first humanoid phone. it's shaped like a human and the smart device can recognize it's owner's face and device in conversations. the price, $1,800 and it's going to hit the market next month. that's our cnbc news update for this hour. let's get back to squawk alley. do you want one of those carl? >> thank you very much sharon. treasury secretary jack lew
speaking out about inversions in our exclusive interview with sarah. she is in washington to recap what he said today. hey, sarah. >> hi, carl. treasury secretary jack lew made it clear that pfizer and allergan should not have been surprised to see the third installment to block inversions which would have let pfizer move it's headquaters over to ireland. rules that ended in the break up of this deal. here's the treasury secretary defending his recent actions. >> if you get all the benefits of being in america and doing business in america to be able to change your address to avoid u.s. taxes is wrong. we said we wanted to stop that and we are continuing to look at what tools do we have? so i don't think that anyone should be surprised. most americans are offended by the idea that this can be done. >> but the issue was sort of the way of going about it retroactively. >> it wasn't retroactive.
that's very important. we said the way these things are done. >> and allergan that made acquisitions. and it's an interesting one. they want the pattern to become clear that the companies plan over a multiyear time horizon to be able to build up a big enough foreign presence so that the inversion can take place where it meets the technical rules not to be subject to u.s. tax. what i'm really focused on is shutting that pipeline down so this is not available as a matter of policy going forward. and as with all policies. and it's the rules after the facts and keep changing them and keep changing them.
>> it's a well established practice of issuing guidance and based on legal interpretation and everyone engages is subject to changes in law and rulings and i think the porn thing here is everyone has been on notice for a very long time. it hasn't been a secret. bipartisan concern. my only frustration is that legislation hasn't been enacted to deal with it and we remain focused on what administrative tools we have to stop the pipeline as much as we can until congress needs to act. >> there's the treasury secretary not ruling out even further measures that his department could take when it comes to blocking inversions and defending himself saying it's clear and given guidance that the company has been prepared for this regulatory risk.
and here is an arbitrary rules to block it and when it comes to companies deciding whether to take those actions. so the treasury there on what he did with inversion and leaving the door open to possibly even more. >> he talked about all the things that his office is working on and of course any policy maker trying to draft policy especially in congress has to be worried that come january that policy could get rolled back. what sort of -- what sort of sentiment did you get from him on how worried he was that all the work they are doing right now could be a wash? >> well he of course played it down and wouldn't get into the election politics on this issue that you raise i asked specifically about trade with all the protectionist ideas out there from senator sanders, hillary clinton and the
republicans as well bashing the tpp, the trade deal that secretary lew has come out so strongly for and i asked if he was worried that those are going to get rolled back and he said i'm not worried about it and chocked it up to campaign bluster at this point and he's continuing to forge ahead in what as you reference is a year where they can't even get corporate tax policy done so everyone agrees on bipartisan support and so treasury secretary lew is doing what he can do to get his priorities through. it's one reason he called on congress to pass the imf reforms that have been awaiting congressional approval over the last five years. something that frustrated him as well and meantime his office is going to be working hard on this inversion issue. >> ironically he tells you that if you're working on a deal that has real economic benefits then this is not going to interfere with your plan. of course if allergen and pfizer were here they would say that's exactly what our deal is going to bring. >> it interfered with their
plans. absolutely. he's aware of the criticism and he's not taking it. he legitimately thinks it was well telegraphed and they should have seen it coming. >> great stuff, sarah. thank you so much. >> up next, tech earnings just around the corner. top analyst will tell us who is best bets for the short and the long-term. that's happening in just a moment. don't go away. there's a lot of places you never want to see "$7.95." [ beep ] but you'll be glad to see it here. fidelity -- where smarter investors will always be. if only the signs were as obvious when you trade. fidelity's active trader pro can help you find smarter entry and exit points and can help protect your potential profits. fidelity -- where smarter investors will always be.
high end high return. saying it could rally by 28%. kate is our call of the day. that and more guys on the halftime report. back to you. >> simon hobbs, live streaming what internet stocks are the best guest going forward. facebook could be the safest stock to hold on to this quarter. mark is a analyst with rbc capital markets and with 1.4 billion users do you think we're not getting to the point where the law of large numbers will catch up with them? >> look, the law of large numbers has been catching up with facebook for awhile the
year over year growth is low double digits. call it 11 and 12, 13, 14%. the market understands that. it's interesting that facebook is bigger in china and there's an interesting play here. were facebook to ever be allowed in china so that could be a doubling of their user base. fundamentally this someone of the strongest assets based on survey work we have done. still growing interest among advertisers and shipping dollars. it's the strongest advertising asset in space today. >> first quarter is usually a bit seasonal. 10 to 15% declines. have you done any channel checks or surveys on whether that is the mark that we're looking at this quarter? the stock is very close to an all time high. it's not one of the top three
longs for the year but in terms of estimates it's one of the safest stocks in the space. it's very hard to do that with facebook. you want to step back and we do advertiser surveys every six months and indications are positive. that's why we think the fundamentals are going to be positive here. >> i was going to ask if you thought it was wider this quarter than past quarters. >> it's about the same, carl. the issue with facebook similar to the issue you had with google about almost ten years ago was that it's really hard to get one or two data points that will prove the quarter to you. probably a half dozen people within facebook itself that actually know what the numbers are so to believe and make a bet based on one third party service coming in with one or two data points that's a very risky naive move to do. we struggle with the border
advertiser surveys and that's how we make our calls on facebook. reprefer the annual calls. >> the data point that's been the wildcard for investors for the last year has been expenses. the company says 2015 would be a significant investment year. is that going to continue this year or have we pretty much seen the most aggressive part of the spending behind us. >> from a longer term perspective kayla i hope it's another aggressive investment year. the day that facebook tells the market that they don really see any new major investment opportunities is probably not the day you juan to be owning the stock with a 30 plus multiple on it. people own the stock in part because of the near term momentum carried out by video ads and offered by instagram but the long-term holders in the stock want to see multiyear investments and at the top of the list is probably what came out of this developer conference
earlier this week which generate almost no revenue. if they can figure out monetization on that you have a new scenario there. both not just in 16 but in 17, 18, 19. that's what the market wants so this should be and i hope it is and the company says it's going to be another major investment here. >> on amazon another commentary this morning. some on the sell side hoping that the gross margin miss was an outliar. do you agree? >> yes. we when out of our way on the last quarter a lot of that was to be expected. they came into the december quarter last year and they missed. they didn't generate a lot of upside. the stock is going to correct close to an all time high. but we talked about it was the set up for long-term bulls and there was excess demand by third party vendors to be on amazon and sell on amazon. that's a good problem for amazon
to have. so we don't expect to see the gross margin pressure they saw in the fourth quarter. we don't expect a repeat of that this quarter and then looking broadly at the amazon story all the data points that came from ou survey work from the google clou platform conference, they all looked to us like pricing is pretty benign in cloud computing and there's still one clear winner in this space. that's one of the major reasons you juan to own the stock. >> that's one of the reasons why amazon is your current top large cap long facebook number five. we'll see how earnings come out in a couple of weeks. we appreciate seeing you always. >> thank you, kayla. >> when we come back, super ageneral issuing an ultimatum to johnny manziel. either get treatment or kiss representation good-bye. drew will join us in just a moment. dow session highs up are 28.
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>> nfl super agent offering up an ultimatum to client and former cleveland browns quarterback johnny manziel. get rehab treatment or get dropped. he joins us on the phone to explain. it's good to have you back. good morning. >> yeah. thanks, guys. good morning, correct. i have represented johnny for almost a month now and one of the things that i talked to him about when i got involved because he had already been released and had been going through quite a lot was that
right off the outset, part of our plan of action was that he get treatment. that he get help. and get his life back on track. more pornly than football. and that's just how it's going to happen. despite repeated attempts to get him to follow through with that he has done that. and he is a young man and incredibly likable. he has this, what could be a great future and watch him frankly ruin it all. >> and things have not gotten better. and it's if he gets into that
and i would con to represen him. and be more effective in getting this young man to take the necessary steps. >> this situation materially changed. did you give him an ultimatum when you signed him or has it deteriorated recently to where you say 5 days and i say good-bye? >> there is a sense of urgency. there's a sense of urgency when i signed him. i have represented hundreds of nfl players in my 27 year career. this is very difficult for me. i could just as easily hang on to him as a client and hope that he turns things around and benefit from that but that's not what is in his best interest. somebody has got to get him to take charge and take control of his life. this is the only thing that i
can think of. i have implored him repeatedly. i talked to people that are very close to him. they tried the same. you know when you follow him on a day-to-day basis, there isn't the type of progress my progress and it's out of option. >> rosenhaus saw indications that demand for manziel is stronger than we see right now. is that not the case? >> and the notoriety and a
potentially brilliant future. but at this time football is the fartherest thing from my mind and it's football and whether he was on a team or he was just unemployed and what matters to me is this is much bigger than football. this is about really trying to help him, you know, turn his life around and get control of what i sense is a very, very serious situation that i'm concerned about. >> we have an update this morning but no response yet from its camp.
and i have reached out a number of times to put him in touch with outstanding people that i believe can help him off the field and if that doesn't happen in the next five days then, you know, my relationship with johnny as his agent will be over. i still will be happy to help him if he needed help but i would no longer be represenning him as an agent at that point. >> thank you for your time. we'll talk to you soon. when we come back, fan favorite returning to netflix tonight. the song might give you a clue. we'll be back in a minute.
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of your retirement today! [martha and mildred are good to. go. here's your invoice, ladies. a few stops later, and it looks like big ollie is on the mend. it might not seem that glamorous having an old pickup truck for an office... or filling your days looking down the south end of a heifer, but...i wouldn't have it any other way.
look at that, i had my best month ever. and earned a shiny new office upgrade. i run on quickbooks. that's how i own it. the second season hits netflix tonight. 3:00 a.m. on the east coast. the show run by tina fey was a big hit last year. netflix hoping it can help the stock. down 3.5 compared to a gain of 142% in 2015. a lot of the bears say that
price hikes are going to drive it. we'll find out next week. >> this is quite an example of finding a home. >> a lot of money spent on original content. let's get back to post nine where simon is going to do the half. starts right now. >> welcome to the halftime report i'm simon hobbs. our top trade this hour the raging bull on banks. with us is steve, joe, and pete and john. we have things down double digits and the sector the worst performer of 2016. our next guest says she the most bullish. he has been on the banks in 20 years as the earnings continue to roll in. mike mayo is the bank analyst at clsa and a good friend of the show. hello. 20 years.