tv Fast Money Halftime Report CNBC April 18, 2016 12:00pm-1:01pm EDT
many people. whether they will actually lose many of their subscribers but there's only a $2 hike. >> only a $2 hike. they would say it's been well telegraphed but they have been having a problem so we will see to what extent they expect that to affect churn. it is nearing noon on the east coast. that does it for "squawk alley." let's send it over to scott walker. welco report." our top trade this hour, the good, the bad and the ugly and what matters more to the rally in stocks. with us for the hour today, jim leventhal, pete najarian and joe terranova. morgan stanley's stock has been moving higher today. oil sliding sharply on the doha disappointment. then there's the ugly. citi, the latest big firm to take a knife to its u.s. growth outlook. what matters more with the dow
only about 30 points away from 18,000? >> i think you know, everybody all last week, all we talked about what was coming up on the weekend in terms of energy. energy is still the same range it's been for awhile. we started to adjust the range up 37 to 42. what's most important right now is the financials. they have been lagging. what will they do when we finally get to the financials. we have jpmorgan and bank of america. the numbers aren't great. we know that. the bar is set extremely low but look at the performance. look to see who's performing best. it's the beta names. citi, bank of america. so far they have had the best results in terms of the stock movement when you look at where jam jamie dimon started to buy that stock. look at the performance you get out of the beta names that trade well underneath book value. >> nasdaq almost 50 points, only
about 50 points away from 5,000, by the way. not 5,000. give me the nasdaq, please. so i don't misspeak again. oh, yeah. about 5,000. you're in the sun too long, that's what happens. >> who were you talking to there, god? that was pretty cool. >> again, can you tell me what's the fastest land mammal? we will come back to that. let me tell you what's going on. here's what's the most important thing. market breadth is improving materially. this is a point we made on the show last week. i think it's the most important thing right now. take a look at the iwm. here's a great example. this is the small cap index. these stocks have got no respect for years. much worse than the large caps we talk about all the time. it might close above its 200 day moving average for the first time in 2016, maybe today. maybe tomorrow. take a look at all country world index.
this is the whole global, xus. you are now seeing this index up 16% off its february lows and you are seeing the same thing, you look at health care, might close above its 200 day for the first time all year. these sectors have not been part of the recovery and now you start to see them come on strong. i really believe that's what investors should focus on if they are looking for the next leg higher should we break out. s&p only 2.5% off all time highs. >> think we can get there? >> i continue to believe we can. the path of least resistance is higher. earning expectations incredibly low. the conversation over the last couple months was all about what's the long book, who's got the energy exposure. well, energy is healing itself so that bodes well. a lot of the regional banks in the last couple days, not the big banks, the regional banks, are performing well. regional banks in the last week or so were actually outperforming some of the larger banks, and then you have what happens this morning in oil.
expectations in oil, boy, if you were short oil, you got exactly what you wanted this morning, except in terms of performance. the performance is incredibly counter to what the actual news is. >> i guess i was surprised that we are back at almost nasdaq 5,000, back at almost dow 18,000, back to levels that if you would have asked most sane investors six, eight weeks ago, you would think we would be crazy to be back here now. is it justified? deserve to be where we are? >> i'm a little more worried than my colleagues here. i think they made good points about the direction of least resistance is up and some of the technicals regarding the russell 2000 are all well made. i worry about the fundamentals of the u.s. economy. my thesis coming into this year was that we would have a strong u.s. economy and that would propel stocks higher. but frankly, what we are seeing is tepid growth that's getting more and more tepid. we talked earlier, you said the ugly is the citigroup downgrade of us gdp growth to i believe
0 .9%. that's roughly in line with what the atlanta fed put out there as what they think -- >> maybe the ugly is actually the good in a twisted sort of way because -- >> because central banks, yeah, but you know what, how long can that go on? that's what i'm concerned about. how much can the fed, the ecb, bank of japan, how much can they really keep propping this market up? >> long as they have to. they have proven they can do that. >> the problem is they are out of ammunition. what we really need is fiscal stimulus. you aren't get that before the election. >> short term, we are talking about this year, like in a six-month time frame, the correlation between economic growth and the performance of the country's stock market is effective effectively. stocks in brazil up 25%. china, the fastest-growing, albeit slowing, but still, of all the big economies and their stocks can't get arrested. i don't know that that's really what's going to determine whether or not we break out to a new high. >> what's going to determine if we break out to a new high is
exactly what has gone on last three weeks and whether or not you believe there was a g-20 coordinated agreement behind the scenes, the u.s. dollar, that's what it's all about. the u.s. dollar, the rate of appreciation has paused. that has a direct benefit as it relates to multi-national earnings. that's positive and in the near term that's going to continue to lift -- >> are you guys saying, are you saying you should be a buyer of the banks? finally now is the time to buy the banks? >> specifically it's been bank of america. that's why i chose that name is because we were talking about which of the names do you think actually has the most upside. obviously we talked about it on the desk and we agreed last week, jpmorgan by far, best management probably out there. i think we would agree on that. of the big banks. but who has the most leverage and who has the most opportunity in terms of upside? i still think that goes to citi and bank of america. that's why i own bank of america. i will continue to own it, by the way. i'm not looking for a sell. i think when we start to see that name get -- start to approach book value, that's when
i start to consider selling. >> so somebody watching wherever they are looks at the bank performance, whether year-to-date, and -- >> looks like a year ago, by the way. >> all the numbers are down double digits except for jpmorgan which is only down 6%. that's year-to-date. they look at that and say why should i believe now these stocks are all of a sudden going to start performing from the bottom of february 11th, they have performed but all the issues that are still on the table are there. net interest margin is going to be an issue. markets activity, an issue. regulation, going to be an issue. why is now the time to change the equation when it comes to buying the banks? >> because in 2016 you have to be tactical. what pete is talking about, what i have been talking about, this is for a trade. if you are asking us where are the banks going to be six months from now, you are correct, there's not much visibility, not much clarity. there are overhangs as it relates to the financials. >> i don't see -- >> you get a lift in the near term. >> i don't see why it's a good
trade. the stocks are thrashing around in a fairly decent range but there's nothing attractive about them that tells you they are going to break out of that range. you say morgan stanley beats earnings. their profit was down 50% year over year. trading revenue is down like 20%. there's nothing good going on at any of these companies, and the stocks really don't rally that much even on good news. >> they have rallied. what's going to rally them further? >> whether you focus on a sector like the banks or you focus on the macro economy, what we are talking about is a tug of war between technicals and fundamentals. the technicals are very supportive. the fundamentals are deteriorating. you laid out the case very nicely of all the foes that are facing the banks. i laid out the things that are facing the economy. you got to make a decision. technicals for a trade that probably works. longer term, the fundamentals are deteriorating. >> technicals are not good either. >> all right. it's all coming into play.
moving lower after talks in doha ended without an agreement to cut production. we have the very latest. >> you know, i love the fact that josh brought up brazil. almost nobody predicted brazil's turn-around but ask people in three months, they will all tell thaw th you they did. that's the way this will go down. i will tell you something, they got pretty close. there was sort of a secret meeting saturday night. they had a draft deal done. in the morning, we talked to one of the ministers who said yeah, i like the deal, i have seen it, looks good, should be a quick, easy meeting. the oil minister of saudi arabia coming in with a giant grin. maybe it was just a poker face. all signs pointed toward a deal. we did not get one. i know you guys like to predict ups and downs so let's go through the bear case and then the bull case for oil following doha. obviously the big bear case is you got no deal. no doha deal. there you go.
you have also got maybe a market share battle coming because iran which was sort of the big specter here, they want to ramp up production. saudi arabia, maybe as a thumb in the eye to iran, may ramp up production as well. you have those productions go up. nobody else is going to cut. now you got this market share battle and sure enough, opec, although this was not a pure opec meeting, certainly does not come out of this meeting looking any stronger. let's make the bear case now. i think it was joe that mentioned something about oil not falling as much as anybody some of the shorts had fall. they can thank kuwait. there's a big strike in oil workers for kuwait. we will put a little red line through that, because al arabia reports that kuwait is saying in a couple days we'll be back to full production and maybe go to two million barrels a day maybe as a thumb in the eye to the striking workers. kuwait may not hold the bull case for long. do you have u.s. production down 700,000 barrels year over year. maybe we get opec to somehow
come back together in another meeting before june. those are the bull case fundamentals. supply/demand doesn't come away that different except for kuwait but i can't highlight enough, lot of the reports in this region suggest kuwait is not going to last long. we'll see what happens. there's your bull case, your bear case. all the cases. >> who is on the case in doha. we will see you coming up in just a bit. what does the doha disappointment mean for oil stocks? let's ask the top ranked integrated oil analyst on the street. he is with evercorps isi and joins us on the phone. doug, welcome back to the program. what happens now to the stocks as a result of no agreement in doha? >> well, we think the path forward for the two sides is to consult each other ahead of the opec meeting but quite frankly, we don't think there's going to be intervention in june either, so in that scenario we think the bull market is likely to rebound
the old-fashioned way with lower oil prices leading to stronger demand and weaker supply. we think this outcome is under way. we think oil prices have increased for this reason and we think they are going to continue to increase. we think they end 2016 at 45 to 50 and 2017 at $55 to $60 for barrel. we are overweight integrated oils. we like bp, chevron, exxonmobil but it's partially because the dividend yields of 48% will prove pretty resilient we think in a market environment that's fairly lackluster. the stocks will proven defensive in this scenario. >> sounds to me this is more as even sort of you admit, it's a chase for yield a defensive stance to play offense in a market where there's otherwise not many areas that you think will be advantageous between now and the end of the year. >> it is that, but at the same time, let's not forget that the market fundamentals for crude oil are improving.
supply and demand are on divergent paths. we think the second quarter of 2016 will be the peak quarter for inventory adjusted for demand globally and we think they decline thereafter and if that's the case the market will strengthen and will probably continue to. we really don't disagree with the idea that some of these near term outages might be just that. brian makes a good point. maybe iran's production is higher or saudi arabia's production is higher. my question would be who else. >> quickly, because we have been showing your brent prediction, i'm sure a lot of our viewers focus on wti. what's your outlook there? >> well, wti will be pretty close to brent, maybe a dollar or two lower, that's about it. 55 end of this year and next year. take off a dollar or two for wti. >> great to talk with you. thanks for jumping on the phone. still ahead, betting on the motor city. are ford and gm turbo charged for a big rally? plus, disney gets upgraded
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disney has been one of the most hotly debated stocks and is the focus of our call of the day. shares upgraded to buy. the stock is higher this hour. you own it, jim and pete. what do you think of this upgrade? >> i like the upgrade. i think they are focusing on the fact there's a lot of studio franchise value here, both in the marvel and star wars franchise. they are also right to point out the cord cutting issue which has weighed on the stock at this point has to be on the stock. it has a forgiving valuation, about 18 times earnings. it just crossed 100. i think it goes higher from here. >> what about espn? what's espn? >> aren't you tired of that? >> jim cramer this morning making that very point. is there too much focus on espn? >> far too much. far too much. >> that's where i would actually say that's my focus. that would be my biggest concern. the succession plan. that's the one i think when we talk about disney all the time, we talk about some of our favorite companies out there. for me, disney is one of them. it's about who's really in
charge. bob iger has done a magnificent job. we all agree with that. >> why not focus more on the studio? >> there are focuses and they have done a really nice job at disney. if you listen to what skipper has to say, who runs espn, you understand all of this has been way overblown. that part's ridiculous. when you look at the succession plan, that was in place, that's the one question mark that's out there. i think that's still further out into the future. but i think that is, if there's one weight on the stock right now for me that's what it would be. >> i think the lows are in from february down, somewhere 89ish. i think that will hold. i think the stock needs a catalyst. i kind of lean towards what pete is talking about, let's get some clarity on the management side. for you, i just, you seem a little bearish on the overall economy. do you think disney can overcome an environment where there's an economic contraction? >> it' vsy good point. i think really what i'm focusing on is historically, this stock has traded in the low 20s as far as a multiple so seeing it at
this 18 seems attractive to me. you may say does it deserve low 20s for a multiple. this is where i go to the studio franchise, particularly star wars which is young in its latest generation as well as marvel which is unstoppable at this point. >> one thing with the cord cutting, this is really an important point, i do not think the stock's out of the woods just yet. but i am constructive on the company because without a doubt, there's going to be upheaval of business models. no one is going to be immune to the idea -- >> great point. >> -- that people want content unbundled, different ways to get it. the fundamental point have you to think about is if anyone is going to get this right, wouldn't you want to bet that it's disney? wouldn't you want to bet espn has the content people wanted regardless of what the model is we will use to pay for it or what device we will access it on. that's the content people are going to want and disney will figure it out eventually. >> let's do our trader blitz now. four trades on four stocks making news today. first, united health. announcing it will stop offering affordable care plans in michigan. joe? >> going to be an interesting
conference call tomorrow morning when they report earnings. this is an earnings that you do not want to miss as it relates to health care. clearly it is a bellwether. i do believe the stock will push above 130. i like the way it sets up technically and fundamentally. >> josh, what's the read on hasbro, star wars toys, home run? >> yeah. i love this story. i have always hated the idea that we are only going to buy apps for our kids and they wouldn't ever pick up an object again to play with. hasbro says that's wrong. the stock price says that's wrong. it looks great. higher this morning. really glad to see it. >> barron's is positive on intel. are you? >> i am. the stock has been stuck at around 30 for several weeks now based on this tug-of-war between the data center group which everybody thinks will do really well and lackluster pc demand which is understating it. pc demand is really through the basement here. ultimately, they are reporting earnings tomorrow evening. i don't expect anything from pcs but if they can give any guidance going forward that is positive, the stock breaks out to the upside.
>> pete, what do do you if anything with yahoo! and who may or may not buy their core business? >> sounds like there's a lot more that are not interested, based upon what we are hearing today. if that's really the case and there's just one that obviously brings down some of the potential people were expecting out of this name. >> verizon is the name to focus on. >> that seems to be the name everyone is focused on. >> you own calls? >> i do. i own them in yahoo! because i expected a few more of those people to be interested. >> what if it's a take under? >> that's the concern. that's why i'm not in the stock, i'm in the calls. it gives me the opportunity to be there if it happens. if not -- >> is there any reason to be positive on this name? maybe there is. >> look -- >> everybody is so negative. maybe that's the reason in and of itself. >> there is some talk private equity firms are sniffing around. if that's the case that puts a floor on the bid. verizon as a strategic buyer would probably pay more than a private equity buyer would. >> verizon is probably bidding against itself. i agree with jimmy. there is probably a floor
somewhere here. i doubt very highly you will see a scenario where verizon puts in a reasonable bid and like ten companies come and clamor for it higher. i think people are just bidding to be in the conversation. >> if they are bidding against themselves that's where the take under strategy is the right strategy. $30, $31, come in at that level. >> i will give you redskins tickets or something. >> wow. that was a direct shot. >> here's the thing. >> those are worth a lot. >> if verizon does buy this property and they get the u.s. content operations, they spin off some of the peripheral stuff -- >> you guys don't even have a quarterback. what are you talking about? >> coming up, barron's making the case detroit is back and ford and gm are screaming buys right now. jim likes that trade. everyone else on the desk is skeptical. stay tuned. take a look at the dow 30 heat map. starting to show only 30 points away from dow 18,000. wow. $40 for crude.
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it's more than it's multi-layered security and flexibility. with centurylink you get advanced technology solutions. including cloud and hosting services - all from a trusted it partner. centurylink. your link to what's next. all right. check the market there. there is the dow, about 15 points away from retaking dow
18,000. hasn't been there since the middle of july. i'm just wondering what people should be thinking about as they look at that number. considering where we were at the lows of what 1810 on the s&p. some people saying go to all cash at that moment. here we are 2% or so away from retaking the all time high. what should you be thinking about for your portfolio? >> really interesting question. i think the whole concept of go the all cash is probably always a mistake. i think there's nothing wrong with being tactical. let's keep in mind we were very close to a full-blown bear market. we were down about 12% but there were a lot of areas in the stock market down 25% and 30% and it's not inconceivable we could fl at the highs again and revisit. the idea of all cash is a mistake because when you get down there, you are paralyzed. you want to buy back and at the perfect moment and it doesn't exist. >> do you take some cash here?
>> depends on your time frame. i would argue you should be doing this in a rules based way, not based on your feelings from day-to-day. >> you need to look at sentiment. i think the sentiment surrounding the economy, surrounding the overall market is still a tremendous amount of skepticism. a lot of people are playing this market from the short side. there's a lot of short squeezes happening from sector to sector. >> the fed is eventually going to pull the rug out from under the market. >> whatever the reason the reality may be, it is still inviting a lot of selling pressure. it leaps from sector to sector, whether it's energy, financials, materials, it seems to be moving back and forth. overall, i do not think you are greeting the markets right now with a degree of euphoria. there's pessimism. >> it was said to be the most hated rally of all time. now we hit the lows and rallied back. now people are looking for excuses -- >> look how close you are to the top. >> which is why i asked the question of whether you were
given a gift and you should perhaps ring the register a little bit. >> if you are running a portfolio, the way to look at this, let's all agree going to 100% cash is going to be in most cases almost all cases foolish. however, if you are managing a portfolio, and you see a stock that looks like it's overvalued, this is a great time to start trimming on it. if you have a stock that's on your radar screen and has been coming down into your buy zone, you don't have to buy the whole position right away. nibble awayt it over time. that's dollar-cost averaging. you make sure you don't -- >> the point you made at the top of the show, i know we have to move, someone e-mailing saying thank goodness for janet yellen and bill dudley. >> not true. if you look at forward four quarters earnings estimates, they are now starting to creep higher. there are other things happening in this world besides central banks. i think we understand the impact central banks have but they are not the only story. they are just a big part of the story. >> that's a big part of the story. oil's a big part of the story. finances, we are into earnings seasons, that's part of the
story. take a look at disclosures, i am probably the least exposed in the market as i usually would be at any point in time. why is that? the markets had this great rally, get an opportunity to take some off and in some of the names, buy puts at very very inexpensive levels to protect the portfolio. not just mine but in the wealth management group. right now, we are about 30% in cash. that's huge for us. that doesn't mean there isn't opportunities out there because i think there are. we talk about rotation all the time. this market is a market of rotation. that's what's moving us to the upside. right now the rotation seems to be pushing towards financials. >> let's talk about auto stocks because barron's is reigniting the debate over that group this hour with its call over the weekend that gm & ford have a 25% upside to their stock prices. what do our experts think? let's debate that. jim, give us the bullish case. >> the bullish case is the absence of a bear case. the bears are going to say we are at peak autos, how long can you sustain -- >> that's a legitimate concern. >> you have average age of cars on the road is somewhere above
11 years. that's very old. that means there's a replacement cycle that will be ongoing. i also think that there's too much overemphasis on the mi ln ya mi ln yals not wanting to own cars. when they have kids to take to softball and soccer matches they will want their car with the dvd player in it to entertain the kids along the way. finally, six times earnings on gm, i'm focused on gm because i own it, there's very little i see to the down side for gm. >> if you look at auto sales in the last couple years, the consumer spending on trucks and cars is actually flattened out. it's been the business side that's actually going out and spending on vehicles. last month was disappointing. that was the biggest negative surprise we have had since 2008. keep in mind, you had it in an environment where you have low gasoline prices and auto credit conditions as favorably as they ever have been. >> i go back to -- >> i call it a value trap for gm
and ford. that's the reality. >> go back to the most basic question. if auto sales have been so strong and the stocks have been so weak, what's going to change that now? even if you don't think that you are at peak auto. >> here's the thing. with the 5% dividend yield you have a nice earnings in a year just from the dividend. you get another 5%, i actually think for gm to go back up 25% would put it right where it was a year ago. basically, peak auto sales are based on this idea that they are going to collapse, that subprime credits are going to go down with it and auto sales are going to go down to 11 million or something worse than that. frankly, gm is going to still make money at those levels. frankly, i don't see it going down that low. >> absence of the bear case is part of the problem with this argument, unfortunately. that's why i disagree with you right now. that was your bullish statement at the very top. i think if you are looking right
now, i think i'm more interested right now at least for gm. for a lot of reasons you're pointing out along with the dividend yield and the fact they will still make a lot of money even with sales not -- >> if they are worried about the stock market topping, not saying it is, but -- >> by the way, we did top dow 18,000 again for the first time since july 21st. it has been quite a comeback. >> i know because i got a buffett alert on my phone. >> again, for the first time since july 21st, it underscores the magnitude of the comeback for stocks since say mid-february led by a number of areas, whether it's commodities which roared off their maybe bottom, financial stocks which since jamie dimon bought jpmorgan they have rallied back. sentiment has rallied back as china has looked a little better. the emerging market story worked for no other reason than it has. the economies in brazil and elsewhere are as weak as they
have been. >> chinese leading economic indicators at a 13 month high. brazil, you had a market selling at seven or eight times earnings with nobody pricing in anything. so it doesn't take much is the point from these emerging economies. just look at the action today. you open up your eyes in the morning, look at futures and then you see the open and basically see 26 of the 30 worst stocks in the s&p are energy stocks. fast forward two hours, only two of the worst 30 stocks in the market are energy. now you have the xle which opens down 2%, up over 1%, best sector in the market. you have the xop, the producers, which everyone was short, going into this. you have those up 1.5%. they were down 4% before the market opened this morning. so that kind of activity with a sector with no good news can rally. i think it speaks to sentiment and where investors want to be right now. >> amazing how quickly sentiment has changed.
>> just looking this morning, i see you are up 1% and raise you 100 basis points on the xle. it's up almost 2% for the day. the other thing, though, is you have to talk about what's gone on with the dollar. whether you believe something happened at the g-20 or not, clearly everyone talked in january about the rising dollar, the impact it would have as it relates to the chinese currency and were we in this global deflationary value where everybody would devalue the currency. the dollar is down. that is so beneficial. it's positive for the multi-nationals. it's a lot of the reasons why the material names are rallying, why we are -- >> from a technical perspective, take a look at xle. at 64 that was the 200 day moving average. rich ross was on last week talking about these technicals, about the 200 day. resistance. resistance. once you start closing above those levels day after day after day going back to last week, that starts to play out as well. take a look exactly where the xle is right now. >> dow with a gain of nearly 100 points dropping just below
18,000. recapturing it for the first time since mid last summer. coming up, the battle for your binge watching dollar. amazon turning up the heat on netflix with a new streaming video plan. can amazon steal customers away from netflix? we debate it coming up. y filmma. y filmma. are you a film buff, watson? no, but i am studying the visual storytelling in your movies. you know, it's amazing how much information is contained in a single image. one visual can make or break a film. i am analyzing images for factory managers, sales people and healthcare professionals. that's good watson. but not exactly movie material. perhaps the healthcare professional could be played by matt damon. you're learning, kid.
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i'm sue herera. here's with what's happening at this hour. a spokeswoman for the mayor says the explosion was caused by a bomb but there are conflicting reports. no reports of death. search teams in ecuador are trying to find people trapped under the rubble after an earthquake this weekend. thousands are being left homeless. a u.s. official confirming that secretary of state john kerry will meet with iranian foreign minister zarif tomorrow to discuss implementation of the nuclear agreement. johnny depp's wife pleading guilty to providing a false immigration document amid
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first time since july 21st. that was the last time it managed to close above that level. remember it was in mid to late august where we first had that big market swoon. most of those fears over what was taking place in china and the slowdown there. the market then came back a bit, then had another swoon to start the year. recovering in mid-february to find itself virtually sitting once again as we speak at dow 18,000 a gain of more than 100 points. big developments out of brazil where that country's house voted to impeach president dilma rousseff. our chief international correspondent michele caruso-cabrera here. the country has had one of the top performing stock markets. >> there were far more votes to impeach dilma rousseff than expected and that's significant for the following reason. i will explain. the next step is there has to be now a vote in the senate.
that could happen as soon as the end of this month. it is expected actually next month. in order for the impeachment proceedings to proceed for dilma rousseff to go to trial, more than half the senate, a simple majority, have to vote to proceed. she then steps out of office for six months while they conduct a trial. there will be another vote at that point, two-thirds of the senate must vote to push her out of office. they have to hit that threshold. the reason the market rallied today is because so many more votes came in in the house, they think it's going to be politically easier for that ultimate vote to get the two-thirds vote in the senate. look at the people in the streets cheering. don't kid yourself. do you think this trial will really be about the facts? this is about whether or not these people in the senate think that it's actually the good political move to vote for impeaching her or not. >> these pictures are not because of brazil's performance in the world cup. >> no. because it was awful. >> you sure this isn't coachella? >> the reality is that the expectation is there that the
majority, 81 senators, right? so you -- >> two-thirds. >> well, that's the second vote. >> okay. yes. >> and that lines up with the summer olympics, right? because this is going to happen sometime, that vote where they will need 54 of the 81 will be in early august. >> if you move forward, yeah, six months in, exactly. i hadn't actually thought babou it. >> which means it's on the world stage. >> speaking of time, incredible performance of the stock market, three months plus 40%. the etf for brazil up 53% in a matter of three months. the real question is, you just got out of it. >> i did. the reason i got out of it, the options brought me into it. >> i don't think anybody would fault you with those numbers. >> back on february 25th we talked about the numbers. you look at the volume there, huge number of 20,000, those options went from 31 cents to $1.35 as of today.
there's a roeason you get out. you have to be very disciplined. this is a massive move. can this continue? >> sell on the ultimate news. >> most analysts would say exactly that and for the following reason. the person who would replace rousseff is far more market-friendly but ultimately, they are not sure he can really achieve changes in the brazilian economy that could matter in a way that would help it grow significantly. >> that's the ultimate thing, right, to grow. it is a dramatically underperforming economy, to say the least. say more. what's coming up? >> top of the hour, two big hours ahead. more on my big interview with the head of iran's central bank. is iran ready for the western economy? opec failing to strike an oil freeze deal. we will cover the fallout. harold hamm will weigh in on where crude prices go from here. plus earnings season surprises. an analyst nailed it the last go-round. we get his big predictions for this round of results.
that's ahead on "power lunch." >> such a lame earnings season yet the dow retakes 18,000. >> amazing. >> michele caruso-cabrera. coming up, the investor summit, where the biggest names on the street unveil their best ideas for charity. up next, a preview of what to expect from this year's event and how you can be in the running to pitch your top stock pick to some of the best money managers in the business. wow. interesting. you shouldn't have to go far
where you can use all of our latest products and technology. and find out how to get the most out of your service. so when you get home, all you have to do is enjoy it. we're doing everything we can to give you the best experience possible. because we should fit into your life. not the other way around. in a little more than two weeks some of the most legendary money managers on the planet will present their best investment ideas in new york city. this year's lineup including jim chano, daid einhorn, jeff smith, so many more, and we will be there covering it all. we are the exclusive broadcast partner, happy to be exactly that, and the best part is that the conference is all for charity. here with a sneak peek at what to expect is evan sone, one of the founders of the conference.
we are also joined by angelo marterell who had the opportunity to pitch his top stock pick last year. great to have you both. evan, tell us about the conference. we all know many of our know, ms may know about it. >> thanks so much. really, thanks so much to all of cnbc for being or partner there year and throughout all our conferences through the world. my brother passed away at the age of 29. he was a "wall street journal" traders. hi miggers and friends and colleagues approached myself and my family with this idea of starting this investment idea conference, whose proceeds would go to charity. though my brother was not a pediatric patient, he was treated on a ped rick wing as an outpatient, so we discussed to invest the proes into cancer research. so we really do everything from
cutting-edge medical research, state of the art medical technology, and innovative programming. now we run conferences, obviously the new york one is really the super bowl. the super bowl, but know now do conferences in london, toronto, san francisco, hong kong, tel aviv, and we're about to open up india as well. >> you have raised to date more than $65 million since the conference was founded in 1995. as we showed on our wall and, you know, i have witnessed in person and the orders as well, the speaker you get every year is remarkable the investment community has really embraced had. it's amazing 20 years ago there were about 70 people in the room, most related to myself or the speaker themselves, and there's now more than 3,000 people. i think people come back year after year for the content, but they write the check to the foundation.
they know the great work we're doing on behalf of pediatric cancer. these are really highly anticipated moments which you'll find out when we do our show there live once the speaker get up there on the stage, the lights are dimmed, the spotlight is on and rereveal the idea long or short. and the stocks moved instantly. >> i think at one point when he didn't mention the stock, it went up 12%. >> they thought he was going to mention a multileave marketing and it was martin marietta as a ecjo. we also have angulo here. you won a contest last year to actually deliver user stoic pick idea in front of the audiences that's available to you, either a student or professional to do that. tell us about how you won this contest, which by the way your
idea is judged by big ackman and several of the other top hedge fund managers of the world. >> like i said, it's a great honor. this is the super bowl of investment ideas. when i was at wharton, they told us, you know, there would be this sohn investment conference, and it's the biggest event there is, and throughout wharton you do pitches to your cohorts, your friends and say, what do you think? and i came up with this idea about tinder, which was pardon of iac, and i knowed that the sales side would say, you know what? there's no up side in tinder. when i heard that from the sales side, i went, wait a minute this guy is proper very happily married, so then i talked about it with a couple friends and they said that's a brilliant idea. that's, you know, i wrote the pitch, so on, and the investors.
>> what was it like standing up there? in the then avery fisher hall, now david ge gethen it haul, they're going to spend ten minutes listening to me? >> i caught your presentation, actually, and you got a lot of laughs. the crowd was absolutely engaged, and they loved your yesterday. i still remember it. >> congratulations for being here and for getting a chance to do that. sohnconference.org urn this friday at 5:00 p.m.? >> that's right. one thing we have done to take the presentations for the next level is the idea contest is sponsored by glg, and they're helping the finalists bringing their presentations to the next level. thank you thanks for being here. up next, netflix, should investors be worried? and jeff bezos has a new
streaming plan. the desk is going to weigh in next. and here's a look at the dow 30 heat map. the index is below 18,000. did hit it earlier today for the first time since july. ♪ every auto insurance policy has a number. but not every insurance company understands the life behind it. those who have served our nation. have earned the very best service in return. ♪ usaa. we know what it means to serve. get an auto insurance quote and see why 92% of our members plan to stay for life.
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we're back on the halftime report. ahead of earnings, which come after the bell, as that company faces new competition, amazon saying it will launch a stand-alone streaming service. both stocks year to date are down 6%. what do you do with this, joe? >> i'm going to say you want to be a buyer on a pullback. right now can be a bit rich. i'm concerned about the guide yoon. they country in a little light. also you've got the expiration of the two-year grandfathering of pricing babb to q1 2014.
i want to be a buyer on a pullback. >> how big of an issue is this amazon? >> how about the timing? the day netflix is about to -- >> bezos is genius, right? >> he's genius. now the narrative tiffs, and you may even get some calls to it. how will you be able to continue to great when besources is masse a $the a month may. >> how much customers of netflix -- i would wager almost ought. and now that they could be unbundle. >> between two stocks, which one do you like better? >> i would go it amazon. >> amazon as well. you have netflix trading at 100 times next year's earnings, and -- >> what's amazon equating at?
that's true, but i think there's more down side. >> we know more about what they are, we know the cloud and when they lift it up once in a while and show us everything they can do, amazon is different. >> good stuff, guys. see you tomorrow. power starts now. dow takes 18 for the first time since last summer. >> welcome to "power lunch." i'm michelle caruso-cabrera along with tyler mathisen. melissa lease is live at the conference on the beach. >> and brian is in doha, qatar, oil is until pressure at this hour. much more on that in just a moment. we begin with a big story in the market.