tv Closing Bell CNBC April 18, 2016 3:00pm-5:01pm EDT
we're going to raise million dollar for that as well. i think it's going to be pretty good. >> we'll have to leave it there. >> good luck. >> continue growing their wealth. thanks so much for watching "power lunch." >> and "closing bell" begins right now. we'll see you back here tomorrow. >> hi, i'm "closing bell." oil was at $50 a barrel. they've outperformed oil by a little bit. >> that's been a big question. >> that's been the question. can we keep going higher. it comes after that doha agreement or lack thereof. we'll have more on that. >> adam parker is also going to join us. he's going to talk to us about why he says his clients aren't focused fundamentals.
and the biotechs sbas he things could have a potential upside. >> and jeff bezos. >> producing an agreement. the real story could be a power struggle in saudi arabia that appear taos be emerging. we'll take you live doha for more on that story, but let's begin with netflix. two big stories out. our julia boorstin is standing by. josh is all over ibm. give us a little preview here to kick things off. >> when netflix reports all eyes will be on ids streaming video subscribers and whether they need or sur paez the nearly 18 million that would reach this quarter and we could expect particular focus on how many they project for the second quarter. also the impact of some price hooiks rolling out next month in
the u.s. the company's forecast to grow revenue 25%, $1.97 billion while earnings per share are expected to fall. this is the company's global expansion as well as more original and exclusive conflict. we'll also be listening to see what is said about amazon's new offering. prime video service, stand alone for $9 a month. that's a direct attack on netflix and a dollar less. netflix shares declined about 3%. amazon shares are up 1%. we'll be back after the bell with numbers and the commentary from reed hastings. kelly and mike? >> you mentioned, too, maybe this significance isn't just so much to make a point of, hey, we've got to this inventory available and it's out there for you but to also kind of poke netflix on the even of its
earningings with a lower price. >> to undercut the list price and act as an anchor. >> i wonder about that that they might be able to impose over time. that's part of the bold case here is that netflix really does have room to do that as they've tried recently to raise prices. >> absolutely. they've been building out their range for some time. if you look at the alternatives, they have children's programming, original shows from marvel, their own exclusives like "house of karsd," so ned felix is trying to off a lot of things to different niche audiences and they have so much different data that they've been able to use that to develop these different shows and figure out what kind of content to buy. certainly a battle over it.
>> julia, we'll see you in a little while. meanwhile josh lip of the has more on what we can expect with ibm. set it up for us, josh. >>my big blue can be on a tear. analysts expect eps of 209 on a revenue of $18.3 bill. they're calling it their strategic imperatives. it will account for some 40% of sales by 2018. since that market bochled in february, ibm stock up nearly 30%. analysts chalk that up to a few different reasons. also remember a court ruling in japan granted a $1 billion tax refund.
that could give the company more financial flexibility. and finally ibm did announce or close ten acquisitions in q1 with the street which means it could contribute meaningly to the top line. no surprise after that big run. we kpould see who's right after one hour. back to you. >> thank you. josh, thinking of streaming, we had an announcement come up about it amping up its offerings for video going forward. >> hosting video streaming, outside providers essentially using, i guess, big blue's streaming stability and cloud analytics. it seems like they're staking everything to crunch large amounts of data. >> it almost seems as if they can pull this turn around plan there's questions how profitable ibm will be in that case going forward.
>> you're right. they're telling them to commit capital. a lot of skepticism. they want to know as ibm skates as to where the puck is headed, the new growth areas, are they on track. software, a big deal. steve mills steps down in november. they want to know how software's performing without him and then broad hi how is ibm performing as the corporate clients simply change the way they want to get their computing done. >> any vulnerabilities there. so much to talk about coming up after the bell. thank you so much, josh. we're going to be speaking to the ibm ceo. don't miss it. it's coming up the next hour. >> as we get back to the market, jeff reaves, peter costa, and, of course, our own rick santelli.
>> i think it's a shift in sentiment. we saw it get dovish. i think it's important a lot of the performers we've seen. they were some of the big snapback plays but i don't think there's a lot of potential there. i caution people not to look too much into the rebounding since february. i think this is going to be persistent. i think it's important what's sustainable and what's not. i think some of those risky plays, i think we've seen all we're going to see from them for a while. >> do you agree with that, peter, how are you thinking now about where oil prices will go? >> i think there's a little more room on the upside. i think we might touch 45 and probably trade between 35 and 45, i'd say for probably the whole summer. but i think one of the things that we're seeing today also is
a divergence. i think the s&p is starting to uncouple a little bit from the market even though this morning the oil is down and the market opened down. but as oil stayed around, you know, down a little bit more than 1%, the market rallied. so i think there's going to be an uncup ling between oil and u.s. equity market. i thought it would be later, but i think it's starting a little sooner and i think what you're seeing, people have a little bit more positive feeling over what looked like a very mediocre to bad earning season. i think that there's some surprises there and i think they're trying to take advantage of that. >> rick, on the macro front, not a lot of change in the general story. relatively soft. the dollar's been, you know, kind of quiet. we obviously had the ten-year treasury staying in its range. kind of downgrading prospects for the u.s. economy. do you think that the market had already figured all that out and this is just the economy and the
markets that we knew we had all along? >> well, it's the economy. we definitely knew we had all along. the treasury market has been telling us that for years but i think it's also central banks nobody is mentioning. it's about central banks and a bit of desperation. ny read the doha meeting wrong. i had a trader on the floor who had it right and nobody believed him. he said, listen, you can only win in this kind of energy situation coming from a position of strength. what we saw at the heart of doha was desperation. russia running out of money, saudi arabia had so many issues going on right now and the motion over time of technology and fracking of how quickly some of this shuttered supply can come online. we think we know the answer, but we've been wrong a lot on the technological side. the nikkei is down and the dax after its consecutive close of 10,000. it hasn't happened since last
year, beginning of next year is still down on the year. and the final comment about ship to shore. as long ads they continue to shift the central planners and bankers will continue to show up blass sheets not in a good way but a debt-laden way and almost continues to leave the equities in a sweet spot for a moment. >> there might be a u.s. consumer benefit. jeff, it looks like you see here, you know, the consumer bed is the place to be, is that right? >> yeah, yeah, definitely. i think consumer spending is so pretty strong if you look. 200 jobs, 200,000 jobs out of clockwork. i think that's going to continue. i do actually think that the dollar is going to firm up a little bit. so some of the retail plays i'm looking at like home depot or macy's because they're insulated, i expect it to bounce back the second half of the year, so now might be a good opportunity to get in the rest of the retail displays. that was a pretty good move
previously to kind of insulate yourself from a strong dollar, but i would definitely start looking at the stocks now. the focus on energy is a little bit too much. it's 7% or 8% of the s&p 500. i'm not going to act like oil doesn't matter. but the divergence does provide an opportunity for people to look beyond energy. look at some of these growth names that are out there and take advantage of it like maybe netflix. >> i'm guessing you're going to say it's not important but what about the general idea that the indices are now close to the all-time highs that we may want to get up there and have another look at them? >> i think 18,000 is not really a big thing for me. 2,100 on the s&p would be, and i think that looking at the beginning of the year, there are a lot of fairly bullish analysts that felt that 2,100 -- you know, we see 2 rkds,100, 2,150,e getting there faster than most people thought.
maybe that tells us that we're a little overboard. >> we're eight points way from that level. >> right. exactly. i look at that and i look at the numbers that -- you know, the analysts had talked about at the beginning of the year. those are my targets. i think 2,150 would be -- that would be a good year considering where we've come from. >> especially considering where we've been. thank you so much for joining us this afternoon. jeff, pete e rick santelli. we still have 45 minutes left to go in this session. but, again, what a turnaround. intriguing to talk. the dow is up. the nasdaq sup 15. >> we'll continue talking about that dow run to 18,000 even if it's not some magical number. plus we have morgan stanley's chief equity executive, adam parker. also ahead saudi arabia startling, an opec igs to freeze oil production. we'll discuss who's calling the shots in the kingdom.
certainly some psychological levels. the dow back at 18,000. the s&p as we heard peter constantine, we're looking to see if it can reclaim the 2,100 mark. the energy stocks are among the big gainers after saudi arabia threw cold water on a deal. there's a look. >> kelly, helping out, crude oil trading pretty firm after a meeting in doha of those major oil producers ended. the real story may now be the power struggle. brian sullivan is in doha. he's covering the aftermath and he can give us some color on the saudi point of view and how this nonagreement came about. brian. >> yeah, mike and kelly. thank you very much. the what, no deal.
the why. nobody wu going to golong if iran wouldn't. the minister saying why are we going to do a deed. for 20 plus years, the who, the big guy, the big gun in global oil negotiation was the saudi oil minister. he ran saudi arabia's oil business. he basically controlled the world's oil. everything he said, the utterances he gave could move markets. that's why when he walked in the door yesterday morning throngs of reporters jumped all over him saying he had a potential deal. he had a big smile on his face. it looks like that might have been a little bit of brinksmanship. i'll paraphrase them. meet the new boss. maybe not the same as the old boss. it's become clear the new biggest power in oil worldwide still remains with saudi arabia,
but it's the 30-year-old calling the shots, the oldest shot of the king of saudi arabia. he made comments about iran. it became clear after yesterday that the saudi delegation here perhaps was not calling the shots, that maybe the shots were still being called from saudi arabia and that allay ail i nemi was not actually in charm of the decision-making. so i think, guys, yes, we did not get a short-term deal, no, we're not going to see a freeze any time soon, however, i think if we take a bigger picture and look out, we say, okay, aly al naimi. maybe he has been throned. he may be the one calling the shots in the global oil world. we can take way what we want,
guys, but when we listen, maybe there's a different person we need to start listening to. >> brian, i'm also just wondering. he's been unpredictable in other avenues, whether it's the war in yemen, other regional proxy fights with iran. so if we now know that this political figure blatantly is calling the shots in the oil market, how do you think that changes relative to what nigh emeigh might have done or would have done in the past? >> i think that it's not about oil. i think you make a lot of good points. if you talk about the price of oil, maybe a deal got done. there's battle for market share where saudi arabia can still charge a premium. so i think we have to look at oil. we've always had a look at geopolitical issues. it's more about price and market share. it is now about a direct tie from the oil field to the king
of saudi arabia and his 30-year-old son. we're going to wrap it up. >> fascinating. thank you. it's been a long day and a long weekend following that meeting. brian sullivan joining us there out of doha. so who's the boss in saudi arabia, the oil minister, the deputy crown prince or the king himself. let's talk more about the power struggle emerging. good to see you again, francisco, a and what do you make of the shifts and what is happening behind the scenes? what does it portend from the direction of oil prices from here? >> well, look, we actually didn't expect a deal precisely for the comments that mohammed had made recently. we knew iran was going to it all along. i think the prince may be trying to expert his influence on the
markets from afar, but the key point here is that saudi wants to maintain the level of certainty there's no better way to get the market higher than by discouraging investment around the world. that's exactly what they're doing by creating this incredible uncertainty and removing al naimi from his commanding position within the global market. >> francisco, that makes a lot of sense, however, on the other hand, the response to the oil market to the fact there was no agreement on the production freeze, what does that tell us that the market is trading firm enough? is it more imbalanced than before? >> our view has been with the fourth quarter o thf year would be the first quarter of
inventory dross. we will have brought that forward to a third quarter where we have a bit of balanced market. so i'm not surprised the market is not selling aggressively. we probably got down to 40s, high 30s. that's happened overnight. but they have acted very positively. we're going to see prices in the higher 40s by the driving season. so we think there's still an upside here. but this is going to be a bit of a "w." we're going to see a lot of choppiness. even though we're going to see a more balanced market, there's more on the macrofront and on the supplies sigh. for instance, kuwait started facing this weekday a strike in its oil industry that's removing some supply. that may come back in a week or two weeks, we don't know. that's going to create pressure as well. think i the bottom line is the saudis want to retain a lot of uncertainty in the market. they want to make sure.
>> just briefly, francisco, then, is it the case that saudi arabia's main role here at this point -- we know their market share globally has fallen a half to a third from what we have seen in past decades or opec's market share, so is there main influence they could have helped to stabilize prices but by this point in sort of reneging on that it's like, okay, well, good luck to try to finding some sort of calmer range from here. is that how you read it? >> that's exactly how i read it. they also have a very strong balance sheet and they're playing both advantages really hard. one of the things the prince said as well is he said over the weekend which i found a little disturbing, he said we can go to 11 1/2 million barrels a day if we want, 12 1/2 if we want to. i'm not sure he's signaling something but certainly for as much as we know from this
person, i mean he should not be taken lightly. he's making a lot of comments, which are reshaping the world of oil. >> that's made it so clear. thank you so much for joining us. about 35 minutes left to go still. and despite all that the oil price kind of hanging in there and markets certainly are. look, the market's up 19 points, the nasdaq up 15. >> and general motors is up after detroit said they're back. car punching inflating numbers. >> also earnings from netflix and ibm. we'll bring you the numbers as soon as they hit the tape and instant analysis. stay with us. t td ameritrade, they work hard. wow, that was random. random? no. it's all about understanding patterns. like the mail guy at 3:12pm every day or jerry getting dumped every third tuesday. jerry: every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart
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welcome back. let's take a look at the map. it raised disney's price target to $121 from $104, and, of course, this comes a week after disney's liva "jungle book." $80 of that was out of my pocket. >> $80? >> four people, 3-d movie. >> is it good? >> it's good. i'm not going to go against the consensus that it's a lou--.
spooky for the kids. >> the two have 25% potential upside. the article says detroit is back in vehicle sales profitability and financial strength. >> even though we're seeing that, our next guest says those numbers could be inflated due to what's known as car punching. this is when dealers punch up cars that stay on the lot as loaners and demos. graetz t great to have both of you. jesse, what is car punching? >> some of it is very natural, very normal. you want service people to have good loaners but the problem comes when you have too many of
them and they just sit on the lot. they don't have any miles on them and they get sold as used cars. >> and you guy s went and tried to tally up if it's more than usual and it looks like it is? >> it is. it's normally 150,000 car as year that are perfectly legitimate as demos and loaners. we saw almost twice as much as last year. >> wow. >> do you wantmy opinion? i think it's worth noting. i do not think it's the reason we saw record sales last year. jesse's numbers, and i'm not going to argue with the math, it's spot on. it's not something you want to see per savasive and much large. car punch, so to speak, are car sales that happened but haven't happened yet. that's 0.016% which were close
to $17.5 million. so it's worth noting, it's probably more of an issue for dealers and investors. >> that certainly seems true. the numbers don't make that case. but, jesse, i wonder if it does tell us anything about the environment in the industry in general, relying on a lot of incentives and other levelers manufacturers can pull to try to get sales up. >> it is just one more thing. it's pretty small in the overall scheme of things. i just heat to see it happen before sales have peaked. sales are still going up this year and this is just the wrong time of the cycle to be pumping excess into the system. >> you know they tell of the skepticism. we're seeing, you know, so much yore kbanic interest in people, just all these car verticals
that are launching. it's interesting, right, that investors don't seem to be giving these guys that much credit for the sales growth that we're seeing in this country. >> they give them no credit at all. you look well north of 10%. they're doing great in the biggest most lucrative market in the u.s. gulf of mexico and ford are doing well in china, which is the largest market worldwide and yet routinely i will have people shrug their shoulders if i bring up general motors or ford. i'm not sure what it's -- i'm not joking around. i'm not sure what it's going to take for them to generaet either interest with the mass market, the kind of buzz that makes people say, hey, have you paid attention to ford or general motors lately, and that's not because they're putting out terrible cars and trucks. they're better thain ever have been. the problem is they shrug and say, it's as good as it gets. it's not going to get any
better. which is why the barron's article, the stocks are so cheap. what are they? five or six times future earnings? you look at it and say what else am i going to do. you can't go much lower. >> are these the best of times or worst of times? >> these are really good times. the problem right now is that nobody wants this to be over. we've had extraordinarily strong growth and nobody wants -- everybody wants one more sumner the hamptons before things tail off. >> that will resonate with people around here. thank you for joining us. phil lebeau putting conduct around there. >> we did have a flash. my friends at barron's, that
call didn't work out quite as well. >> that would be more the magazine cover indicator in which this one should be a little bit alarming too. >> exactly left. 's get over to sue herera with the cnbc news. >> here's what happened. three syrian men and children were killed when a rocket struck a turkish border town. the town has witnessed almost a daily onslaught of that from isis. about 1,200 demonstrators have been arrested since april 11th. they're protesting such issues as political campaign funding and easing college student death. the 120th boston marathon was held today in near perfect conditions. ethiopians took both the men's
and women's races. and the chernobyl nuclear plant has gone on from being a nuclear catastrophe to a popular tourist attraction, believe it or not. the mishap occurred in ukraine 30 years ago this month. thousand ace arrive each year to see the destruction with their own eyes. i dolkt know if i would want to see that. >> i'm not sure what the half lye is of a strategy. >> also i would still worry about residual radiation. >> without a doubt, yeah. >> whack to you guys. with just over 25 minutes to go, the dow is still up. just up about 95 points right now. just below that 18,000 mark. meanwhile adam parker tells us which health care stocks he likes best. later ibm ceo speaks with us. what he says could set the stage
welcome back. under 25 minutes left. each of the major indexes are up a little over half a percent today. they weren't going to sell off on this no agreement in doha and we're melting up. what's happening here. >> you know what we found? we're diverging from oil. oil had been the leader for so long and now we're getting what we didn't expect or traders didn't expect. now i think we're finally focusing on earnings and if we can beat on the bottom line and top line, we can rally, especially above 18,000 as far as dow goes. >> that's the question. we're also approaching the old highs in the s&p 500. we're a little over 1%. is it going to be less than half bad earnings numbers? >> the bar is set pretty low. we saw the financials from today. they really exceeded. the forecast is going to be important. netflix is going to be a big one. that's forecasted at an 11% move. they had news out. that didn't help them this morning from amazon. so is it a by-product of that or
what can they do going forward? they're going to look at what's going on ahead. >> our next guest sees the land of opportunity. adam parker is a chief financial strategist from morgan stanley. he joins us now. good to see you, adam. there seems to be a bit of a sentiment change going on at biotech. what's going on there? >> one of the ways we look at it is health care. we did that recently. i think the big concerns are around m & a and drug pricing post in a political year. drug pricing is always going to be an issue. sentiment has gotten more negative. you've seen that from exposures. i think you vn above average earnings growth and i don't think drug pricing will as onerous as what's priced in.
i think you have pretty good growth potential. >> adam, what about big pharma? it's also obviously under some kind of pressure here. you had some kind of drama with faizer and the invery jens here. does it also look, chief, based on your work? >> it does. what we said is which variables are associated with growth premium, things like r & d, head count growth, et cetera. then we said where are we overor underpaying for the growth and our work shows biotech and pharma look attractive and software and a lot of the consumer staples look unattractive. in part because we think the growth was is mispriced there. >> adam, when morgan stanley shows net and growth exposures of the hedge fund industry back to two and three year averages, where will the s&p 500 trade? i'm kidding. this is a line from your frustrated report to back out
for a second from the market discussion. you're saying questions like those are driving you crazy these days. what's your beef here? >> well, no. my point is just that people are focused on sentiment and position. e feel like every time i do a meeting, investment and sentiment dominates the conversation and we hear about cash growth and fundamentals. i think it's because we had such violent moves in the market. my earnings is that earnings will grow this year. i thought that february 10th. i still think that now. the fundamentals haven't changed that much. it's been more about that that's caused the violent movements. i think that's where it's coming from. they're hoping once they get more ee quill lynn liberia reyum, they can focus on trying to find winners and losers. >> do we see a path to that focus returning? it seems like it's been a
tactile market. it seems it's not been dramatic enough. >> look. my personal view, you know, we were arguing that we were bullish early in the year, that, you know, things were mixed and not terrible and we stayed bullish through the down turn. i think it jeff makes sense to be a little more cautious given the huge move in the market. so i don't know if i invented the concept, but, you know, wine goes well with cheese. i think it's the same thing. what did i say? sell in may and go away? it seems like it's setting up the same way again this year where you don't have a lot of positive cattsibl positive catalysts. morgan stanley's house view on those, they say yes to both. we're going to end oupen a
strong dollar path and stronger chinese economy. so my view is if you're trying to buy low, sell high, you can't be as optimistic. that's why we're being a little more optimistic. >> i think you're a couple years late to the wine and cheese pairing. >> i thought i made that up. >> the dow, adam, ticking next to your head is ticking above 18,000. any comment on reaching that level? >> just to what's priced in now, if we're forecasting 4% earnings growth this year, another 4% in 2017 and we keep on that run rate all the way through q1 of 2018, so in other words two years forward and then a year from now we pay 16 times that forward earnings, that's 2050. we're a little bit below where we're trading now. i think people are assuming the price to earnings ratio keeps expanding, and i don't think that's like it.
right now they're going to ride the wave on sentiment and look for a catalyst to sell. look, i'm trying to be a little more cautious in the market level and find areas that are dislocated. i mentioned biotech earlier. i'm trying to find areas that don't seem like they're pricing in. >> when you come up with an interesting take on ford and general motors come back, adam. thanks for joining us. good to see you this afternoon. >> take care. >> 15 minutes to go. as mentioned, we were just flirting with that $18,000 level. as we know, the significance is just for the "nightly news" report. maybe they see that and search and go, hey, wait a minute, i thought the market was bad. >> it shows it didn't fall apart. >> no one's breaking out a baseball cap just yet. >> meanwhile amazon is successful in shopping and streaming but its e payment
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actually amazon is going gangbusters. they're the fastest in revenues in history and the crowd business is growing much faster, its enterprise business growing much faster and jeff has said it can be as big as the retail business. >> that was bill miller's bullish call on amazon here last friday. now the company making a big push into the epayments business. kayla tausche has more on that. >> analysts estimate that last year amazon processed more than $200 billion of transactions that year alone, but it's strategy to compete against paypal and visa and some of these other incumbents. they've really fallen flat in recent years so far as doing a web checkup but they have launched pay with amazon. they're now focusing with some of their strategic partners to benefit their customer, like
take, for exam tell, mota operandi. we spoke exclusively to amazon payments chief patrick gauthier on the heel os that and how it fits into amazon's overall ambitions. >> nigh goal is pretty much every merchant but the very largest, we will want to have a strategy to talk to the amazon customers because the amazon customer is often one that is very engaged online. it's somewhat of a shorthand for "buy things online," and if you're a merchant, you absolutely want to talk to these kinds of clients. for the merchants, they may see the rivalry with amazon, and that's fine. >> so far 8% of amazon's
customers have used the pay with amazon products. there's obviously a lot of room to go. some of their payment rivals have been put on notice but it's up to the retailer to do some seoul er sole sear soul searching with how data they want to share with amazon. >> we'll wait and see. amazon making some overtures of its rival there as well. okay, kayla, thank you. >> we have ten minutes left to "closing bell." dow is under the heise. floating with the 18,000 and 23 at s&p 500. >> we're minutes away from netflix and ibm earnings. no matter how they perform we're told he expects it to language. he'll explain why right after this. i invest with e*trade, where investors can investigate and invest in vests... or not in vests.
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and low energy prices but, of course, the energy prices have recovered from more than 50% and the dollar is getting a little bit weaker, so as the year progresses, the earnings are going to be less of a headwind and the market is starting to anticipate that already. >> how much, i guess is the question. you've got the market trading at its highs. the market has gotten more expensive than it has been. >> i think the market has gotten slightly ahead of itself. if all of a sudden you continue to see more support from central banks and the united states and janet yellen sort of delaying what president dudley mentioned this morning, it's going to continue to be gradual in nature, all of those things will add some support. >> just a brief word on house do. you see that as supportive of the market here? >> this year i look at it, something around 3 1/2 times faster than the overall economy. one of the things that concerns me is i look at mortgage debt and the housing market index.
we are not seeing a huge growth in mortgage debt outstanding. >> you want that? >> well, the reason that's happening is because fico scores are going much, much higher. that means that there's less propensity for a bubble activity. but at the same time housing could be growing faster because they're keeping the fico scores excessively high. this time they haven't gone down very much. >> you're always fighting the last war, i guess. that would help the economy, maybe the market, too, anthony. we'll leave it there. >> that sounds impressive. four times as fast as the market. i like that. >> after the bell, with ee just minutes away from netflix and ibm results. we'll bring them to you, we'll have an exclusive interview as well as howatson is impacting the bottom line. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. you pay your car insurance
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(cannon sound) mobility is very important to me. that's why i use e*trade mobile. it's on all my mobile devices, so it suits my mobile lifestyle. and it keeps my investments fully mobile... even when i'm on the move... ahhh. welcome back. two minutes to the "closing bell." dow up 100. bob, the script didn't really play out. >> no. >> we were supposed to have a break in oil prices. >> remember dough half. we all shorted money going into doha because we figured, hey, there's no agreement f there's no agreement, oil doesn't drop. then the market opened. you could see this.
as soon as it started turning around, volume started picking up because they were basically covering their shorts because i think they were mystified. why didn't oil drop a lot more. you saw energy lead. nobody thought they would. that's another example of the short covering. >> once the energy sector didn't break and it held together, there seemed to be this grind. >> that's another point. we mentioned the dow hitting 18,000. we're 300 points from a new high. there is an upward bias to the market. there's no reason for it. a lot of people say we've got the weaker oil, the dollar weaker, the fed with a floor under the market. now we've got to watch the industrials this week. ge is reporting friday, caterpillar, several new highs, honeywell is at a new high. 3m. there's expectations already built in. they're going to have positive
comments. my point is something's happening here. we could be at new highs in the blink of an eye. >> thank you. we appreciate. the "closing bell," nyc government services. up at the nasdaq, emerge americas. kelly, over to you for the 4:00. thank you, mike. welcome to the ""closing bell."" it looks like we made it. the dow going out with a gain of 105 points. nearly 18,003 is where it's finishing. it's been since last july. same kind of gain for the s&p 500 today. bear traders watching. we're only about 5 1/2 points shy now. and the nasdaq up 21 today to 4960. in fact, netflix is down.
we're waiting for earnings. julia boorstin is watching for us and josh. we'll see you in just a moment. mike santoli back with us on the panel for the hour long. cnbc contributor stephanie, faust money trader guy adami joins us as well. welcome, everybody. what did you think, stephanie? >> amazing. what was most impressive, oil was down most of the day. we didn't sell off like we had been over the last couple of months which is real decoupling, which is very encouraging. we didn't get the deal but we had the kuwaiti contact. they're going to continue to shut production and i think the supply/demand balance will become more of balance. and, again, we're not as dependent on the oil crisis,
which is very encouraging. >> they were breathing a sigh of relief, mike. there were a lot of things going on. >> i say it's totally true. one of the reasons, maybe, steph that oil did not really pull the market down, the dollar was slightly softer again today, so it seems like it's not -- oil's not telling us that it's this big deflation trade and the dollar is going to run to the you up side andite goes doing hurt earnings and everything else. it seems like we're in this window where good news is good news. again, i do think it makes sense as we get up to these old highs for people to say, you know, what was really fixed here exactly. >> oh, sure. and also how expensive is the market relative to the earnings people are paying up for, guy. again, we're going to talk about
netflix in a moment. that's certainly not the case for everybody but it would seem unless we start to see some acceleration, people are paying up. >> people are paying up and you mentioned valuation. first of all, kudos to the people who have steadfast. i have not been one of them. it is an impressive day. shrugging off the nikkei was 3.5%. shrugging off the head lines and a number of things and here we are with four s&p handles. very impressive. quickly, let's talk about it. if the s&p is talking about $120 worth of earnings, let's make that the number. that's somewhat consensus. >> again, the question begs to be asked andanced.
i think we're at the top end of that range. >> the other piece of that, what's the equity where nothing is really cheap, right? $7 trillion in government debt. so i'm not saying that means you pay any price for stocks but it sort of supports the idea of an s&p yield. it's not crazy to be dealing in this area. >> it's the reason why you have a lot of companies doing well and paying out dividends and people buying those dividends. i mean that's why you're seeing caterpillar and mcdonald's and others doing so well. i kind of feel like we need that sector to do well for us to feel good because it was such a leader for the last several years and to have them absent from the marketplace, it's really surprising. i was encouraged to see a broad based rally. >> it's helped toss people out
of the space. with the financials here, we moved to that part of it. it's not like morgan stanley was doing a lot. we have morgan stanley. what do you think the broad takeaway? >> the money sector was a little more than the morgan trading. i bet goldman will be better than morgan stanley, but that's not really where you want to be in terms of the crux of dpn chals. >> they're doing very well on loan growth and expense cuts so that's where you'll see better performance. really good numbers. >> i think the big new york banks told you they were oversold. people didn't own enough of them. they're not really having a terrible time but they're just barely kind of earning their cost of capital, barely if they're lucky, book value.
it's not an exciting story but it's enough that it got the stocks up to this level. outside of jpmorgan and wells, it's enough. >> by the way, we're waiting for these big earnings reports. we're also waiting to find out who buys yahoo. today's the deadline. >> you're not going to necessarily hear the announcements, we hear every bit of news. i do think, you know, it's not surprising to hear that verizon remains in the lead. the question is what kind of price are we going to be throwing around as we get into assumedly a second round. >> let's take a quick check of shares on netflix. those shares are starting to dribble out here for about $56 movement it looks like it's moving quite substantially more than that. down about 13%. we'll get a little more detail. julia, what does it say?
>> kelly that's right. wall street had been looking for 3 cents in aerpgs per share. revenue coming in a hair lighter than expected. total revenue was $1.98 billion. that's up 24%. wall street had been looking for a 25% increase. when you look at the stock down 13%, that comes down to the company's forecast for the second quarter. the company's looking for addition of 2 1/2 million new subscribers in the corner. that's far less than what wall street had been expecting and that's because they were out of this quarter. adding more subscribers than expected. 2.2 million were in the u.s. half a million more than expected in the u.s. overseas they added 4.5 million new subscribers but it looks like they're going to grow fairly dramatically in the second quarter where they're projecting the 1/2 million new
subscribers, so it does tend to be light but it seems like they're expecting some impact from the higher prices impacting some of its older customers. the end of the grandfathers in at these lower prices. i'm going to continue to dig through here, but it looks like it's those forecasts for q2 that's what's weighing on the stock right now, especially with the earnings big. kelly? >> julia, thank you. let's get over to john writ injer. he's president of technobuffalo. i know we're just looking at it, but what are your initial thoughts here? >> they've had an incredible rise. amazon announced $8.99, undercut netflix by a dollar and twitter which somehow got the rights to stream "thursday night football" this coming season. revenue stream is only from streaming and dvd rentals.
ty think netflix has a lot to worry about over the next few months. >> guy adami, what say you? >> that's what people are looking at squarely right now. i ool say this. this stock was trading around 78, $79 earlier this year. rallying up to 110. what we're seeing is a 50% correction or retracement of that move. this is a pretty critical level. mark cuban was on, i want to say, last summer talking about how at 94, $95 the stock looked pretty interesting. my point is this has been for a lot of people, a line in the sand. it's imperative it holds right here. >> just hugging the $94 mark. john, going back to your point, i understand that twig goert the nfl, but is that really what this is about. >> does it actually go back to
how much pricing netflix has with its core customer? >> i think it goes back to perception. al zon put $6 billion toward programming this year. they're building themselves as the king of streaming. they don't do any live. but looking at competitors like amazon coming at them, there's a lot of cross-streaming. they carry a lot of the same offering. nobody wants to be the only one in the office who didn't catch up on the "house of cards." that really at least in the near term they can replicate what they have in the u.s. so maybe that's what's giving people pause right now? >> yeah. and that could be it. netflix is paying about $75 per subscriber, which is going to give them a round of $45 profit
at just under $10 per month subscription plan. if they keep pushing that, the more they spend t more subscribers they get in. but there's got to be a limit how much they get in. >> let's pause here in a moment. we'll come back to netflix. ibm's earnings are also out now. let's check in on that stock as josh lipton givens us the stock. >> let's get you those results. ibm reporting 235, kelly, on a revenue of 18.7 billion. a healthy beat on the bottom and the top. just looking at the segments, the strategic imperatives, ibm is skating toward cloud analytics. mobile security up 14%. total cloud revenues up 34% to $10.8 billion over the past 12 months. cognitive solutions.
remember, ibm disclosing its financials. cognitive solutions, core software business, revenue $4 billion down 2%. global business revenue down 4%. technology services and cloud platforms revenue $8 billion, down 8.5%. and systems, that looks like it clocked in down 22% and importantly, kel y it looks like kelly maintained at least 13.50 for the full year thachlt conference call starting at 5 college 30. back to you. >> thank you so much. stephanie, what do you think of it? >> this is a classic we've been talking about, where the stock is beaten down, where currency can probably benefit them going forward. that's ibm, right? all of their businesses fell year over year but that was actually expected and there were some businesses that fell less
i'm not sure this is the best quality. if you're beating guidance, that's one yellow flag and they had a big tax credit. that goes away at the end of the year. that being said the stock is attractively valued, has a nice dividend. netflix on the other hand, there are too many question marks when it comes to competition. >> actually on that note let's flip over to netflix. our julia boorstin has a little more detail. julia? >> that's right. i want to look at those who are grandfathered in. most u.s. members pay $7.99 or $8.99. they're going to be fazing that out. they're going to hike up their
prices at the end. they say they only expect mod isly increased turn partially because these members have been with them for so long already and they say with the higher prices, that's going to allow them to invest more in content next year. they're taking up their expected spend in content from about $5 billion this year to over $6 billion on a p & l basis for 2017. so increasing the content spend from this year and next year, they talk about where they're going to be spending that content, amping up more local language productions and investing 5% of their budget in original films. certainly an area to watch. >> thank you. john rittinger is with us. >> ups is expects a drop-off. what i would be worrying about is the next. if amazon is spending $6 billion
on original building, that's going to have to keep going on. the reason people are so upset is they were told it was going to stay the same and amazon is offering a dollar less. i would be a little worried. >> guy adami sitting there patiently sitting through netflix and ibm that i completely understand why people are selling it off this guide for growth. that's scaring a lot of people. here's the question. why wouldn't you guide higher when you bet it. it gave them wiggle room to do something they haven't done in quite some time. hard to do an assessment. i'll say this. you know, there is slow growth. there's minimal growth here, and i think it's probably in the range of ibm. i'm more inclined to sell it than buy it. >> thanks for joining us, guy.
>> pleasure. >> be sure to stick around. catch guy adami at ""fast money"" at 5. mitch lowe will be appearing for an interview. you don't want to miss that. coming up, c fe o martin schroeder breaks down results and let as company know when it can finally reverse its trend of falling revenue. find out why with the man behind that call right after the break. you're watching cnbc first in business worldwide. man 1: i came as fast as i could. what's up?
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welcome back. after the meeting last week christine lagarde voiced her concerns about the u.s. economy. >> we've slightly downgraded the u.s. forecast precisely because of the impact on the dollar on imports. to the extent the u.s. dollar would sort of stabilize and not continue to appreciate, then certainly the forecast might be a little bit better.
joining us now is william lee. thanks for joining us. it is a striking contrast, right, with what's happening in terms of your economic outlook and where the markets are going. why downgrading your view here? >> because my old boss christine lagarde only did part of the job. i also downgraded but the one factor she didn't consider is the fact that fed policy itself is now becoming a source of uncertainty. it used to be that economists always hid behind uncertainty as sort of the placywhere you couldn't explain your forecast but i found way of measuring uncertainty and that measured uncertainty has shown that the headwinds produced on consumption, i've downgraded our outlook for below 2% for this year and barely 2% for next year. >> william, i have a question for you. if the gross is less than you think here in the states, that should mean that the fed doesn't do much this year which means the dollar should remain kind of either flat to maybe even weak. that should be good for
corporate profits, and so that makes me a little bullish about it. do you have any thoughts about that kind? it's pressured corporate profits quite a lot and one of the things that has been a big drag on the u.s. economy is fact that the dollar has been so high. we have yet to see it work its way through. it's about another year or so of downward pressure. so things are look leak it could get better, but we have to get through this rough patch first. >> is it the uncertainty or is it that there's a kind of built-in sort of governor here, so in other words if we get better growth the fed is perceived as being more aggressive and if we don't get good growth, that's the only time we're going to get the fed to be more passive? >> one of the things i found in my research, the old fed where i worked, the fed job was to nail
it. that was it. now the current fed is much more responsive. the fed is watching the markets watching the fed. in fact it reacts not just data but global events and it reacts to market events. that's unanchored monitoring policy so it actually becomes a source of uncertainty and because it's a source of uncertainty people are saying, gee, ienl not sure where financial conditions are going to be so rather than spending today, i'm going to put off spending or spend less. >> it reminds me of donald rumsfeld. certain uncertains and certain certains. people are throwing that around a lot. what's different from the past? >> what i'm using a policy put together by these guys at stanford where they counseled the number of times you guys the media use it in the press. just by comparison last summer whatten they had the evaluation
and you had all these market events as well as the post january period when we had huge global turmoil, it with was 30% higher. that 30% increase of uncertainty does it. >> we're flatled but calling into question your entire met d methodolo methodology. no, seriously, thank you for the insight. william lee from citi. appreciate it. >> let's send it over to seema mody for a quick alert. >> we're looking at the stock. down better than 20%. malkt says our first quarter results fall short of expectations largely due to lower than expected sales of products. now they're also citing weakness in europe. they say we have made management changes in the region and you're
looking a the stock down about 20% after hours. kelly. >> thank you, see ma. stephanie, this is life sig sciences? >> yes. i'd like to get more detail on that. this is not a cheap stock and the expectations are kind of elevated so you can see why the reaction is what it snies down 20%. we'll continue to follow it. netflix fairs also plunging. is this major red flag for what had been a hot stock? that's coming up. plus ibm's martin sh rotor is here as it continues its transformation into a cloud and data analytics firm. stay tuned. g plans. so when i found out medicare doesn't pay all my medical expenses, i looked at my options. then i got a medicare supplement insurance plan.
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welcome back. martin schroeter is a ceo with ibm. he joins us. hi, martin. >> hi, kelly. >> let's begin with the question that's been put out there as we comb through these results which is after topping the first quarter, why not raise guidance for the rest of the year. >> it's a good question, kelly. in the first quarter we had good progress in transforming our business. you can see that in our data, for installs, in growing the strategic imperatives in double
digits. we see they're paying off their driving growth we see that the strategy is working. we see that the sign posts we give to our investors around double digit growth is working. now we're 90 days in and we obviously have a lot of the year ahead of us still. so our technology services, business grew in first quarter. it's been on a pretty good growth path and we see it continuing. but at this point it's prudent to keep our guidance where it is. >> you're investing heavily. you're making quite a few aki decisions. ten by my count at least and then today this news. u stream being a recent acquisition. then you're talking about more support. how does this fit into it.
>> sure. kelly, the video services business is a great example of how our point of view, we bring it together to benefit our clients. obviously the future of the platforms are hybrid clouds, and what that allows in the video world is that our clients can bring together not only their existing data, but they can build new data pools as well in order to put it in media entertainment companies. but at the same time, we also need to bring in our industry experts and our point of view is it's really important to help drive cloud into new areas. so we have a lot of interest.
video is how we seal elements of the point of view coming together between hybrid cloud and analytics that helps our climates understand what to do with all that data and an industry point of view to bring new businesses and new opportunities. >> do you have a view as well about the fact that you're obviously having to move in to and have new customers go out and make new relationships to tell a new story because there was one analyst survey that suggested you were most at risk for people canceling their kind of i. the relationships, yourself, the other legacy players. again, you're transforming the business, so does that mean you're kind of sales and marketing expense has to be higher going forward just so you can make sure you're communicating the fact that you have streaming video and all of these different capabilities? >> the investments we're making, kelly, spread across all elements of the ime.
as we build out the platform, the ibm cloud for health which has watson as an underpinning, we're going to build the data pods that deliver the data. at the same time we're reaching a new set of buyers, and so our markets and sales expenses will shift as well. but this has always for ibm been around shifting. we're currently running at a high rate of expense. but, again, that's to build some new businesses and market areas. over time we see all of that fitting within our financial profile that allow us to deliver solid low single digit revenue growth and high single eps growth. but, again, the shift is what we've been working on. we do spend -- we make dramatic investments in our r & d, but it's constantly changing. it's going toward cloud and
block change and watson whereas in the past it may have gone to develop and build out new semiconductor manufacturing technology. the shift is ongoing and we'll always be moving the bitz mod toll where we see value. >> martin, we know you have to go and get ready for the call. thanks for joining us. >> thanks, kelly. >> martin shroeter is the ceo. time for an update with sue herera. >> hi, kelly. >> he said it would be stronger and safer if it votes to stay in the european union. it was published by his agency. democratic presidential candidate bernie sanders walking the streets of midtown manhattan shaking hands, posing for photos. his campaign questioning what it says are serious apparent violations of campaign finance laws under a joint fund-raising deal between hillary clinton and the dnc. the mother and sister of a
murdered woman in louisiana stood with prosecutors, investigators, and crime victims' advocates, they're calling for the tech giants to allow the fbi to unlock fones when necessary. the musical "hamilton" has won. it has $60 million in advance sales on broadway. the last musical to nab the prize was "next to normal" back in 2010. that's the hottest ticket in town. i have not seen it yet. have you? >> now, any hope i had of getting one is gone. >> i'll buy the tickets and go next year because that's about when it's going to happen. >> maybe we'll go in havecies. it's going go a mortgage
payment. >> i know. con dwrat lagss to them. >> is now the time to get out of the stock? that's next. plus -- >> i feel devastated that we did not catch and fix these issues faster. >> elizabeth homes promising to fix the blood testing laboratories during an interview with nbc news, but is it too little too late. that's later on "the "closing bell." " systems. systems. it recognizes pedestrians and alerts you. warns you about incoming cross-traffic. cameras and radar detect dangers you don't. and it can even stop by itself. so in this crash test, one thing's missing: a crash. the 2016 e-class. now receive up to a $3,000 spring bonus on the e350 sport sedan.
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hire's how we finish the day. to close at 18,000 for if first time since last july. nasdaq up 21 to 4960. we have an earnings alert to get to with seema mody. >> hi, kelly. the stock is tanking. here's why. in line with expectations but down 5% from the fourth quarter of 2015. the company citing lower patent and royalty revenue from various customers. a as you see, it's down. >> seema, thank you very much. netflix down about 9% now. joining us to break it all down. also with us barton kroniquette. do you have doubts? >> that's right. kelly, we're still considering it. we were a little spooked by the q2 guidance which was below what was expected. the biggest question we have right now is the potential impact on the grandfathering of it.
other than that, i thought the numbers came in pretty respectable. i think what we're seeing with netflix right now is the normal ebb and flows of content spending. overall they remain intachlkt i think, really, the expectation is 2017 is going to be the major swing year to profitability. >> barton, we've certainly seen the stocks swing around throughout history and it's currently off the lows just after that report. >> right. >> but netflix is also maturing and so is the space and it still trades at quite a high multiple, so how do you justify even a $100 valuation here? >> i think it's a great business. i the you see that. you get the biggest pop when you launch in a none country
internationally. the data we're tracking says we're still in hypergrowth like latin america but they're starting to cool in the u.s., canada, and other countries will follow that. you layer it, i think amazon is a boogie man here. i think he caps on what they do with pricing. so i think you see a little bit of that in what they're doing with grandfathering. they were going to put that through in may full stop. now they're staggering it in. i wonder if competitive concerns are part of their rationale for taking that pace. >> tuna, you mentioned it's going to be a heavy investment year. what are any positive catalysts in the near term that would have me buy it today for the, say, next several months? >> the cattle list i can sum it
up is international, international, international. the addressable market, the rate of growth is going to decelerate. there's no question about that. internation internationally that's a different question all together. especially some of the emerging markets and newly launched countries they talk about 800 million in terms of the numbers of broad band households they're barely two thirds of that. as we look beyond this year and next year, the rate of growth will accelerate and i believe the valuation while it's of some concern but when you look at the period of retail sales on any number of relative metric, we think it's still an upside from here. >> barton, big picture. if you look at netflix and the corporate strategy in its letter
today with results saying they're going to raise more debt, they have $2.5 million of debt, they're a big consumer of capital. when is the el mat payday when they make this a very profitable cash cow business? >> the thing about netflix is there's a lot of incremental margin. i have no doubt they'll generate it in the future but it makes people twitchy now. you know, they can issue that. the market wants -- you know, is supportive of that but that can change on a dime, if the competitive situation and the subscriber uptick die namer has very, very bullish views. that doesn't make the reward worth the risk at this time. >> those shares under pressure after hours.
goldman sachs will be wrapping it up tomorrow morning. we'll tell you what to expect straight ahead. plus ceo elizabeth holmes talking about regulators planning to ban her. find out what she had to say later on the "closing bell." the right one for her? ist is this really any better than the one you got last year? if we consolidate suppliers, what's the savings there? so should we go with the 467 horsepower? ...or is a 423 enough? good question. you ask a lot of good questions... i think we should move you into our new fund. sure... ok. but are you asking enough about how your wealth is managed? wealth management at charles schwab.
mary thompson has more. mary? >> the bank's first quarter profits tumbling. 9 cents better than estimates as morgan held the line on expenses. revenue at the investment banking unit dropping reflecting muted ipo activity. trading revenue was better than expected though fixed knicks. it's wealth management performed as expected and revenue from its investment reflecting declines in emerging markets investments. the stocks over the last 12 months. morgan's return on equity came in at 6.2%. for this measure of profitable. looking ahead to tomorrow morning's report for tomorrow morning, its profit down 59%. it faces down counts. a 37% decline of revenue.
to the decline in profits i should say. look for expense controls to provide some if any upside to firm's results when they report tomorrow. back to you. >> guys, thanks. what are you looking for in these reports? >> the fact that the stock was only up marginally, i think people are questions what really is the return you should expect out of these businesses. 6% roe is not what you can expect hopefully longer term, at least not if you own the stock. >> 6%. >> that's morgan stanley. >> i know. and their guidance is 9-11. i don't know how yo get there. >> rates go up. >> that's a longer term kind of a situation. in the meantime you're left with a lot of businesses who are flailing a bit here. i do think they did a very good
job on expenses. and the wealth management business, the margins were much better than expected. people thought that they wer going to fall further which would have been a big thing. i think goldman will be better tomorrow but is it really where you want to be. i own goldman sacks for sure, but i think it will be better. their returns are better or higher -- not by much but they're higher. >> my take on goldman has been for a long time. don't have to be faster than the bear, just faster than the other guys and that's been their strategy and i think so far that looks like that. >> that was one of my dad's favorite jokes growing up by the way. now ceo rick holmes is speaking out on whether the company can survive. details in a moment. we're going to get you instant analysis and reaction and results from intel and yahoo!. don't miss it.
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>> i feel devastated that we did not catch and fix these issues faster. i'm the founder and ceo of this company. anything that happens in this company is my responsibility at the end of the day. we stopped testing, and have taken the approach of saying, let's rebuild this entire laboratory from scratch. so that we can ensure it never happens again. >> you're dealing with people's lives, you're dealing with test results that doctors prescribe medicine based on that. so one would think that you would have had that in place from the get-go. >> absolutely. and probably the most devastating part of this is i thought we did. >> do you think this company will survive? >> absolutely. >> no doubt? >> no doubt. >> tough, interesting. the story itself is tough. there are so many people's lives at stake here with what happened.
with the effort to try to revolutionize blood testing. now this step. it's not as if she spoke with the journal which is the one that broke the story months ago and has tried repeatedly to get information out of the company. but still an effort to explain what's happened, or express her disappointment, mike. >> sure. but when you say we're going to rebuild the lab from scratch, it's not so much, we know there's this way of doing things and we'll do it right this time. the whole company was based on a premise that they had a new and better way nobody else had come upon before. what does it mean to try to rebuild that from scratch. maybe it's not available within their power to access. >> it's really tough. i was very surprised she went on tv. this late in the game, you know. i would have thought she would have been right more visible right from the get-go. that said, i thought she sounded genuine. they have a client to fix it. whether it does or not, it will be some time. and then you have to trust the product. that's really what's going to be the key going forward.
it doesn't work. can you trust it, and we don't know until we know. >> and we'll wait to hear from regulators about what role they do allow going forward for her and her colleagues who built the company. by the way, this goes back to the existing blood testing equipment we have, of course, big successful companies. they do this already. the issue is, if they turn to using something more conventional, that's a difficult region to disrupt. >> exactly. one more competitor doing a similar thing. which is great. look, i think everyone should hope that theranos figures it out. maybe they do have something o proprietary that's better. >> low cost, just a finger prick, that's the holy dpral. >> but we need the safety, too. it's only a matter of time. time is going to tell if they can actually rebuild this company or not. by the way, to their competitors, can they get a leg
up on them trying to figure out their own technology and better them. it will be a wait-and-see. >> there's plenty of focus on the fact that people would love this kind of technology, that's not there. if somebody could come up with a way, working with them or themselves, the territory is there for the taking, so to speak. netflix has a subscriber problem. the panel's final thoughts. a check on ibm when we come right back. and flexibility. with centurylink you get advanced technology solutions. including cloud and hosting services - all from a trusted it partner. centurylink. your link to what's next. [so i use quickbooks and run mye entire business from the cloud. i keep an eye on sales and expenses from anywhere. even down here in the dark i can still see we're having a great month. and celebrate accordingly. i run on quickbooks.that's how i own it. (p...that, you haveit, wait! yoto rinse it first like... that's baked- on alfredo. baked-on? it's never gonna work.
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welcome back. let's check in on the two big earnings reports out this hour. netflix a little off the low, almost 11%. still, ibm down 2.5%. >> they beat on the bottom line. i think the guide abc was certainly suspect. the tax benefit was suspect. the margins were very disappointing. they have to do a very good job on their conference call to investors to bring back confidence. the stock is up 16% from the low. so i see why people would be taking money off. >> 16% from the low. $190 stock a couple of years ago. it kind of had this tremendous period of underperformance. then rallied back hard. i do think people have the
abiding question of what's the core run rate of the business here. what even is the core business. obviously they want to divert attention from the faster growing initiatives. but on the way there to when that all becomes the main majority of the company, it's kind of bumpy. >> it will be interesting to hear at netflix, the international growth, so important they launched more than 100 countries, but the international subscriber forecast is down significantly from when we saw this quarter. 4 million to something more like 2 million, perhaps is just a long way to get from here to there, mike. >> yeah. you know, i think the big calculus now is are they being conservative. the second quarter isn't one of their big growth quarters. really, international just really growing the penetration outside the u.s. where it's already mature has been the bull story for a long time. >> it is. but they're losing money. who wants to pay when margins are down. it's a tough sell. >> tomorrow morning we get goldman in the afternoon, intel
and yahoo!. do you think ibm will set the tone or is it company specific? >> i think it's very company specific. i don't expect intel to be any better. they have their own internal struggles too. that does it for us today. thank you so much. "fast money" begins right now. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking times square. tim, steve, dan and guy, tonight on fast. after-hours, netflix and ibm falling on earnings. those calls are now under way. we have full team coverage throughout the hour tonight. we'll also get reaction from the co-founder of that company. plus, stocks may have hit year-to-date highs today, but one trader seeing an eerily similarity to 2008. and later, the world's biggest oil producers can't agree on a cut. why did crude rally so far off the