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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  April 20, 2016 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT

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pretty much where they stood on this. wynn is up off the lows. you want to hear what's going on. >> is that nevada? tourism in nevada, that will tell you something different about the consumer. >> carol and mike, thank you, guys. "fast money" begins right now. >> "fast money" does start right now. i'm melissa lee. traders on the desk are pete, brian and dan. tonight on fast, earnings bo nan sa. qualcomm is slightly higher. las vegas sands is tanking. we'll have full team coverage throughout the area with the headlines as they break. a top technician said new highs are coming if two very important things happen in the market. two tech stocks traders see moving, $50 billion tomorrow. the names and how to play it. but first, we start off with the market that just won't quit.
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another day with the dow and s&p closing at 2016 highs. despite an earnings season that's seen big misses. and today coca-cola. which begs the question, could we see new all-time highs if earnings continue to be lackluster, dan? >> yeah, you can. it may surprise you coming out of my mouth, but you can. and it's likely to happen. here's the next pivot point you have to look at, the s&p 500, the high in november here. if we were to fail in and around where we are right now, that's something that would give bears a little juice here. but the thing is about earnings, we're very early in the earnings season. expectations were very low. especially when you consider the fact that we got the bulk of a lot of financial stocks earnings. the stocks traded pretty well. once we get to the back half of this, into more consumer related names, in retail, i think we may have a slightly different picture. i think that investors right now, who discounted low
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expectations, may have much higher expectations in the back half of earnings season. i'm not expecting it to blow out and make new highs, but it could happen. >> is this called climbing a wall of worry? yes, the expectations were low. but somehow a lot of the earnings came in lower than the lower bar. yet we're still rallying higher. >> although some of them beat the lower bar. you look at some of the financials. they were so low. all they had to do is basically step up and that started with jpmorgan. what's really driving the markets right now isn't just the financials, but the financials is definitely one part of the engine. look at oil and you can almost predict where the market is. look at the great reversal today. oil was down. the xle barely moved to the down side. once we flipped in oil, suddenly the energy stocks holding on to the two-day average. if you can have materials working for you and energy and picking up a little momentum in financials, look at goldman sachs.
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incredible from negative to positive. not great numbers, to your point. when you look through what's going on right now, with the weaker dollar and oil going higher, that seems to be the magic number. >> and treasuries, you've got yield at three-week highs. the ten-year year-old is 1.808% to date. more people getting risk off. >> risk on. >> risk on, sorry. taking off risk. >> i was about to say, i didn't get what happened today at all then. >> moving away from the safety plays. and moving into the risky plays. >> it doesn't matter about earnings. i think everyone's forgotten about earnings. >> it was all about earnings. >> i don't know. i think in my game, it was about yellen, it was about oil, it was about global growth or lack thereof. i think once china stabilized, it said, who cares about earnings. as long as china stabilized, it's macro. for that point, now look at what dan said the pivot point, 2016,
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we closed -- it topped out at 2111. i think it's to a t where we topped out today. so we have to see what comes tomorrow or the next couple of days. i don't think earnings matter one bit anymore. they pushed us into risk assets. >> oh, i don't know. >> you see energy, materials, industrials -- >> here's the thing. it's oil. we've had oil rip 40% off the lows. that was the big concern out there. not only did it weigh on emerging markets, but also weighed on the banks. all of that is taken off the table. eventually earnings will matter again. the market's just not trading on that. >> the bears -- >> no, no. >> a little air in the -- >> listen, what i've always said is the risk to my bear thesis is the fear of missing out. the fomo trade. that could certainly happen. if you get oil continuing to rip, people will start saying -- >> that point that you just
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brought up, once you throw in the towel, not everyone is throwing in the towel yet. all of a sudden when you get bears, and i had to capitulate 150 handles up, and once you do that, we've run now another 50, 60, 70 handles. once everyone gets in the pool again, the money on the sidelines is no longer there. >> i just wanted to be clear, at this point i don't have much on. i don't see the risk -- the risks to me are still out there. there's plenty of potholes. there's still more risk to the down side than the up side. knock yourself out, but you're not going to do it on top of bk. >> here's a crazy notion. take a look at the earnings calendar. there's a lot coming out in the next couple days. imagine, just imagine a world in which these are coming out decently, not lackluster. what happens? >> then you do -- listen, i actually do think earnings matter. they matter for a whole host of reasons.
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really what we need to do is see some growth here. we're seen four consecutive quarters of declines here. that's one of the reasons why, i think year over year, consensus was calling for 8 p 9% decline in the eps. so it's going to be low single digits. that's why you're at 2100. if they start to accelerate, and companies are basically saying the dollar is down 5% in the last four months here, we see a bit of a runway here for the balance of the year. that's the thing that takes you higher. i'm not certain it's going to happen. intel, 70% of their sales are booked outside of the u.s. here's a company that keeps meeting lowered estimates and guiding the out quarter down and meeting them again. to me, i think you have a whole host of issues here that don't speak to growth. i think the market could do a lot of what it did last year, trade a very narrow range, around 2000, 2100, and -- >> intel was up.
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i'm glad you mentioned that. >> as a trader, what i always look for is, bad news, good price, or good news bad price margins. that's why i would hold open the idea, hey, maybe we want to have a blow off the top. but watch t.i.p., which is the inflation protect bonds. oil's going higher, then the fed comes back in the game. don't count the fed out. they will be a wet blanket on a cold day. >> our next guest has two things that could send stocks higher. let's go off the charts with rich ross. rich, what are you looking at? >> look, steve talked about the fact that not everyone has capitulated, but this guy has. we've established our stocks. i've been out of this market since 1999. no one likes to get stopped out. you have to respect that risk. let me show you why i'm respecting those stocks and why as we talked about the potential for an exhaustive blow off the
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top through the new highs is quite possible. the first thing we're going to look at is the canadian dollar. why are we looking at the luni? this is the key commodity currency. look at this v-shape reversal here. the 50 crossing back above the 200 day. you're taking out prior support. the last time we saw this break above the 200 day was two years ago, back in 2014. when crude topped. this is dollar weakness. that's driving everything right now. crude oil, we talked about this. crude oil above the 200 day moving average, just like your luni for the first time in two years. you have to respect that bullish price action coming out of doha as well. once again, hard to deny what you're seeing here. energy, obviously following suit. not only above the 200 day for the first time in two years, you have the nice v-shape reversal just like you saw in the canadian dollar, where we
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started this. weaker dollar, fuels crude, fuels energy. it's now the second best performing sector year-to-date. s&p up over 10%. when energy works, the world is a better place. we've seen that over the last two years. now, this is where it gets really interesting. s&p 500, market breadth, decline line, telling you that breadth is expanding. this was notably absent from last year's rally. we've broken out to a fresh all-time high in market breadth. the stocks above the 200 day, almost three-quarters of the stock above the 200 day. doesn't mean you can get another down tick and doesn't feel great to buy the market up 16% in the last two months, but these are pretty bullish statistics. and finally, you can see very strong correlation between the s&p, that's the orange candlestick chart and blue line here, what do we like about this chart? on the way down this breadth lags here. this is the market and there's
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your breadth. breadth is leading us higher. the prices are going to follow breadth and push out to a new high. you're only about 1%, 1.5% above the high note. what i'm saying here is that if you are not prepared to stomach that sort of bullish breakout to a fresh new high, then i don't think you can be aggressively short here. the upside might be limited, i get it, up 16% in the last two months. but once again, breadth is telling you the weaker dollar is telling you the stronger commodities, the stronger credit, is all sort of telling you what you're seeing is might be to believe. >> rich ross, thank you. do you respect what these charts are telling you? >> in certain areas of the market, adding materials going into the energy spaces. tech resources is one of the names. you probably saw the paper. unbelievable paper in there today. that's a name that went from
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under 3 to suddenly trading to 11 and now buying upside calls. huge numbers in there. i'm rolling into those. the breadth is a huge thing. financials, energy, materials is leading the market. that's why i think it's going higher. a major bank says one of the fast casual stocks is about to surge. stocks near all-time highs. the four names in particular could be flashing a big sell sign. we'll tell you what they are. later, earnings palooza. american express rally. all the headlines when "fast money" returns. i could get used to this. now you can, with the luxuriously transformed 2016 lexus es and es hybrid. ♪
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that's why at xfinity we're opening up more stores closer to you. where you can use all of our latest products and technology. and find out how to get the most out of your service. so when you get home, all you have to do is enjoy it. we're doing everything we can to give you the best experience possible. because we should fit into your life. not the other way around. welcome back to "fast money." united states airlines, look what's happening with shares after hours. the company reported first quarter earnings that were better than expected. beating the street by 5 cents. but a lot of focus after hours on q-1 prasm, passenger revenue per revenue seat miles. down 7% in the first quarter. the company said it's going to be down 6.5% to 8.5% in the second quarter.
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that's guidance released a couple of weeks ago. op the conference call a few minutes ago, the company talked about the pressure and the fact that demand is simply not growing as quickly as capacity. not only at united airlines, but for the industry overall. the bottom line is this, guys, the impact of low oil, yes, it brought down the costs for united and the other airlines, but it also allowed so many cheap seats to come into the system. companies, airlines offering those discounted entry level seats because they could with the lower jet fuel. as a result, that's pressuring passenger revenue. tomorrow morning, "squawk on the street" is going to have rt first interview with united's ceo oscar munoz. only been on the job day-to-day for the last month. "squawk on the street," you don't want to miss it. he'll talk about earnings and what's going on with the board. back to you.
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>> that will be a good one. phil lebeau, thank you. pete, long ual, what are you looking for? >> looking for upside in there. >> this is exactly what everybody was afraid of. >> this is the laggards. delta and american outpaced united over the past few years. you look at this name and i think some of the moves today, some of those board moves today, that they've made, some of the activists got a couple of seats. they didn't get all six, they got two. i think that's going to change things. there's more expertise on the board now. >> does that increase demand? >> i don't know. but i think the problem is, by the way, i think that some of the discounting, i think some of these guys have made huge mistakes along the way. when i travel, every flight is still full, and i travel a lot. >> when you look at who's outperforming southwest, i think when you look at these through the prism, not prasm, through the prism of all the airlines put together, you've got to go
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with the outperformer. i think you have to stay with luv. if you want to trim, trim. if you want to get long, i think you stay here. >> what do you think? >> the whole thesis on the airlines is they finally learned how to run their business. clearly they're back to their old game here. >> not all of them. >> okay, but it seems like united airlines is, right? >> that's why i -- >> and so what are they filling with? filling with cheap seats. my point being is that if you have rising oil, if you're in that camp, you think the market's going higher because of rising oil, then you have airlines that are not running their business like they have in the last year or 18 months. and they have rising oil. >> but with oil going up, i thought the consumer was good when the oil was down. >> it depends on why you think oil's rising. if you think it's because china's global growth is getting better, that's the reason why -- >> i don't think that's why oil is rising. >> no, no, i'm saying if you do. >> yeah, i don't.
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>> if you do. >> let's extend this airline conversation to transports. i think for most of last year, it was easy to pick the transports as a space and say whatever you wanted to look at, whether it was rails, trucking, whether it was airlines. and now they're massively outperforming. etf, the transports up 26% off the january lows. obviously the airlines are a part of that. i actually think at $145, i think iwt sets up as a very, very good short. really, 150 would be an ideal sort of entry point that was a massive consolidation from last year. i see oil up here, i see transports lower in the near future. >> to a trade you can sink your teeth into. coverage on the food stocks which kicks off our top trade tonight starting with the owner of applebee's and ihop. they see significant upside to the stock. also assigning a neutral rating to denny's.
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$11 price target. pete, you're citing the riblet as one of the reasons why you like applebee's. >> mega rita, you've got to go with that. the mobile app and some of the pricing, they've got themselves positioned very nicely. specifically, i'm talking about applebee's. they found themselves in a great sweet spot right now in terms of fast casual. now they've got this mobile app that gives people, it's adding to at least the takeout menu. it gives people the opportunity to drive up and take away. or even drive up and actually stay within the store itself. but i think some of the moves they're talking about, they're also talking about second half of the year, same-store sales. they think they started to rise in the second half. that's why the other two names are sitting there at hold. they think they're not going to be very good. they think they're going to come down. >> the riblet. >> the riblet is a big seller. >> apparently. the call on duncan, they said
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that they are street low for the q-1 forecast. they think further down side for the sales. if duncan doughnuts is losing, can we say mcdonald's or starbucks -- >> i'll take a page out of pierre's book. i heard you talking about starbucks. let me tell you, i got my first free coffee. i was actually -- i think this app may catch on, i don't know. i heard you talking about it and i thought it was very interesting. starbucks, we were talking about new highs. the market's going to make new highs. starbucks will make new highs. >> that's what i'm talking about. still ahead, a five-star fund manager said he's identified a new trend in techs that could lead to the next best trade. and what could make you a whole lot of money.
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here's what else is coming up on fast. >> yeah? that sums up the market. but a couple of stocks might be too high. plus -- >> $1 million. sorry. $100 billion. >> well, maybe not that much. but two tech giants are expected to move an estimated $50 billion in market cap tomorrow. the names and how to play it, when "fast money" returns. business. so itr when work takes you across the globe, your unlimited data travels with you to 140 plus countries and destinations at no extra charge. and that's not all. because with t-mobile there's no overages. ever. switch your business to t-mobile at work. and get four lines. with 10gb of 4g lte data each for just $35 per line.
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i'm courtney. welcome back to "fast money." take a look at shares of mattel, dropping to around 6%. the barbie maker reporting a wider than expected lost, though a beat on revenue. currency continues to be a major headwind for mattel around the world. sales for barbie actually coming in flat and constant currency for the wheels segment, those sales were up 9% in constant currency. revenue in boys and girls segments and american girl all
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lower than what consensus was coming in to report. fisher price sales in line on the conference call, ceo said the outlook for 2016 is largely unchanged but said mattel is setting up well to restore real growth in 2017 and beyond. interestingly, coo richard dickman said mattel almost completely offset the loss of the disney princess license in the first quarter. that had been a big concern for the street but other disappointments in the quarter. >> courtney, thanks so much. so strong projections for 2017 and beyond. what do you do right now? >> you sell it. i'll tell you why you sell it. because somebody long the u.s. dollar, i can tell you it's not a headwind. i don't know what's going on there. the dollar has been down. there's something else going on there. they're not operating the company the right way. >> you don't even know what stock he said. >> he said sell it. >> i'm talking about ibm, right?
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>> barbie? >> barbie seems like that's not still the worst place to be. i think it's actually okay, which is a backhanded compliment. i still think the disney partnership is a different issue. that was a huge segment of what their sales were. >> do you think it's in the name already? i do agree with you -- i think it's in the name. >> yeah. >> up next, a very busy market headline. later, what could move nearly $50 billion tomorrow. we'll give you the names when "fast money" returns.
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welcome back to "fast money." a news alert on walmart. let's get courtney back in san francisco. >> changes are coming to the walmart board. the changes will be proposed at the shareholder meeting on june 3rd. current board members, and a
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former walmart ceo will be rotating off of the board. this is done largely with succession planning in mind. these are planned changes. two of these members have served for ten years. mike duke, of course, has been on the board for some time following his stint as ceo. what's very interesting is the next generation of waltons will be joining the board. so jim walton's son stuart walton the chief executive officer of game composites, that he started in 2013, will be joining the board. now, historically three waltons have been sitting on the walmart board. they will still have three waltons on the board. 67% of the board remains independent. and overall, the walmart board is reducing the number of seats from 15 to 12. over time, walmart has changed their board composition. meyer is a member of the board, so a bigger tech influence in
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recent years there for the walmart board. i don't think that anyone, when i say anyone, i mean the majority will oppose these changes. i do believe these will go through on june 3rd. melissa, back to you. >> court, just to be clear, all the people are leaving but only one person joining? does that imply the board gets smaller? >> the board goes from 15 to 12. permanent until they decide to change their mind. because over the last several years walmart has begun to add positions that weren't there previously, or add seats that weren't there previously. >> courtney reagan in san francisco, thank you. >> it didn't trade well today. in a market that was, you know, highs of the year so far. it traded at the lows of the day. i don't think this is news to necessarily trade it off. if you want to take profits, there's a great opportunity here. >> i agree. the stock is basically up 13% on the year. up 26 % from the november lows. they guided down this year. i don't think the board changes
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are too impactful. i know people like the dividend. it's just below 3% yield. but a market multiple for walmart, no growth, i think there are better places to be. >> a number of big names with earnings after the bell. american express, and qualcomm, and las vegas sands. kayla, we kick it off with you. >> melissa, positive news for american express shareholders. card member spending up 6% in the quarter. although the company did say that it was spending more money. expenses up about 5%. marketing up 19%. rewards and cash back, which comes directly out of revenue, definitely putting a dent in the company as it tries to regain the customers that it would potentially be losing from some of the co-brand partnerships that will be rolling out. for exchange impact, softer than the street had expected. but it was really the confidence that the company had to say that the guidance they had given for 2016 and 2017, that it remained
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appropriate that drove up the shares in after hours. the fact that the company was willing to say what we know about the business right now, leads us to believe we can reaffirm those numbers. although on the conference call under way now, the cfo, jeff campbell, said that could change a little bit throughout the year. take a listen. >> there is a bit more uncertainty around the second half assumptions rather than the first half of the year. we believe we've taken a balanced approach, we'll have a clearer view at the end of the costco relationship as we progress through the year. >> of course, $1 billion expense benefit when that costco partnership ends. but it's anyone's guess after that rolls out what the company's fundamentals look like. of course, it was 20% of amex's overall loans. if you take a look at loan growth for the quarter, when the company takes out the costco and the jetblue loans that are ending, when they take them out, they would say the loans are up
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11%. but if you keep those in, they're down 14% year over year. the company is also saying with costco gone, they'll have to hold less capital, they'll have to hold less in reserves against loans that could potentially go bad. but campbell did say without the costco economics, the results of their mission with the fed could be a little bit different. so the question-and-answer portion is beginning right now. we'll get you headlines from that as they develop. but for now let's send it over to jon fortt who is watching qualcomm. >> thanks, kayla. this qualcomm stock has been volatile after hours. the stock now down roughly 3%. the reason why it appears to be down, i guess 2.5% now, because of talk about licensing. qualcomm has said there's been some weakness globally in the premium tier, the demand overall has been better than they would have expected in a number of areas. that weakness in the premium tier, combined with the fact that they're trying to rework
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licensing deals in china is leaving them guide cautiously on licensing, which can be an area where there's a lot of profit. the more they talked about that guide, the more the stock went down after hours, after initially being up, and then down, and up and then down again now. qualcomm tryg to communicate that china remains strong for them, driven by the lte transition, that overall they have big expectations for the 820, to be contributing a healthy amount to chip margins, beginning in q-3, and increasingly in q-4. management sounds a bit more confident to me than they have in recent times. again, outside of that premium tier. particularly feeling good about china, just not on the licensing line and that's what's hitting them after hours. back to you. >> we'll send it to -- >> to jane i should say. >> sands, despite the miss, you would have thought it was a great quarter. the ceo spoke on the call,
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succeeding against the odds. the game market share there. and that it had its first sequential revenue increase in two years. despite two new properties from competitors opening up. but, quote, march softened up. revenue per day spending by non-vip, so-called mass consumers was up 10% in a year. the earnings before things like interest and taxes popped $1 billion for the company. as lvs gained share with macau, addison was bullish on the new resort opening in september calling it a whopper. >> i have not a shadow of doubt that the parisian, which is targeted to open in mid-september, will replicate the success of the venetian as another famed iconic resort destination for macau visitors.
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>> they're still waiting to see how many tables they'll get at the parisian. management said repeatedly, we just want to be treated fairly. they kept referencing all they've done for the area. in a rare nod to the competitor, they're hoping the new wynn palace along with the parisian will be a turning point. even complimented steve wynn's ability to put on a show. the marina based sands, blaming a strong dollar, but sands highlighted their 34% increase of visitation from china year over year. adeleson joked about the possibility of maybe negotiating in singapore, to sell when allowed, maybe mall assets there. the joke was, quote, trump isn't the only good negotiator. finally, melissa, what about las vegas? las vegas sands, not one question on the call about las vegas. revenues came a little lighter than expected there. though revenue per available room was up 10% year over year. back to you. >> jane wells, thank you.
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lots of good humor in the conference calls to keep things lively. we've got axp and qualcomm. >> look at qualcomm tomorrow. the bad news, just like intel had, we'll see if it starts to trade higher. i think tomorrow morning, or tomorrow by noon, you start to see it trade a little bit higher for a trade. >> what happens if -- >> well, this is just for a trade. >> oh. >> i think a name like las vegas sands we have to take into account, those that have outperformed are the ones that they've really got to blow it out of the water or else they're going to get hit. i think is a great example of that. look at wynn, up 46% year-to-date, sands up about 20% year-to-date, i don't know number they would have had to put up for that stock to continue to the upside without some sort of a pullback. i think the market share gains they're making at macau are great. i think steve wynn and the insider buying he's been doing has really been a tip to what he
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thinks is really happening in the asian markets right now. >> just to touch on both of them, qualcomm, the real winner in that space is the connected car huge for them. 3-d graphics chip. up 10% year-to-date. qualcomm up 4% or thereabouts. if you look at las vegas, they have singapore. they complained about singapore. but they get $3 billion from singapore. wynn doesn't have anything there. so if you want growth, when it comes back, las vegas. >> effectively short qualcomm, what do you do? >> listen, i reduced it for a lot of the reasons that b.k. just mentioned. it doesn't matter what qualcomm says. i'm out of the way. i agree, if you saw it at $50, it's a cheap stock. one quick point. taiwan semiconductor talked about the smartphone. we have apple on monday. connect the dots here. listen, expectations are low for apple, too. but i don't think there's a ton of down side right now in quaul gum.
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news alert on apple. josh lipton has the story. >> well, melissa, news here on apple. we were expecting originally to hear apple's latest earnings results on monday. that has now been changed officially to tuesday. i can tell you, i just got off the phone with apple. the reason for that change is because there will be a memorial service for bill campbell on monday, which apple executives will be attending. of course, bill campbell, a legend here in silicon valley. greatly admired, respected, coached a number of luminaries from steve jobs to larry page, sat on apple's board. there will be a memorial service for him now on monday, which is why apple's results will be on tuesday. melissa, back to you. >> thank you very much, josh lipton. certainly we've seen earnings postponed for reasons like this in the past. at the same time you do get an extra day here to trade into earnings. >> you know, it depends on what
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has been built up into apple. the stock has moved off of those low mid-90s that everybody talked about. then back over 100. it's sort of in that area right now where i think everybody's sort of in never land. it's not 120. i think people would be a little more negative on it, and it's not in the 90s. i'm not sure how aggressively people want to be positive. bill campbell, not only a phenomenal person, was the football coach up the street here at columbia university as well. shout-out to his family. he was the man. >> you know, apple, i think a lot of people would be very interested in buying at 100. like you said, it's kind of in no man's land. but listen, until the fall, there's really no catalyst here. i think people are pretty unimpressed with some of the updates. they just updated the mac book. there's nothing really new going on there. the watch update were bands. we need to see something interesting. new screens coming, not even in
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2016. there is nothing going on on the product front there. >> i love his impression of you. >> i don't think i talk like that. i mean, really? really, dan? anyway, apple. >> the support obviously the round number is par $100. when we have the bounce level, up to 109 and change. it's compressing within that zone. you want to see 106 hold. ultimately, i'm long the name. i will get longer the name because i do believe it's still intact. >> seema mody has a story. >> the feud between the founder and ceo is heating up. pullte sending another fiery letter to the shareholders stressing why the board should replace dugas immediately. chronic underperformance of the company with over $500 million
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losses since 2004, michael pulte said i'll be voting against the entire board at the upcoming annual meeting of shareholders. pulte will be on "mad money" with jim cramer at 6:00 p.m. you won't want to miss it. >> thank you very much, seema mody. what does this mean, the board room brawls? >> i think they're untradeable. i have absolutely no edge on what's going on here. i don't think it has anything to do with what the underlying fundamentals of the housing market and how they're going to do. this game is hard enough, why would you make it harder. i would stay away. >> let me tell you something, the housing market has been so depressed. i've been long pulte homes. people are looking for pulte to return to growth. they floated the name of buying kb homes out of it. that's how you trade it. these stocks have moved dramatically to the upsglid
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haven't we said said in the past, they enacted some change when a stock is underperforming. the outcome, no matter what it is, will push the company to do something. >> yeah. listen, there are plenty of examples on both sides. qualcomm kept going lower and lower as activists pushed the last couple of years. but in this situation where you have a family member of the original founder pushing for positive change, it's probably not a bad one to get behind. >> how about the fact that phil lebeau just talking about united, that the activists want to have change. they enacted some. this isn't exactly the same, but a similar situation where they don't like the direction, and this is the underperformer in the group. so they're getting much more aggressive about this whole thing. still ahead, two huge earnings out tomorrow. google and microsoft set to report after the bell. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. i'm here at the td ameritrade trader offices.
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steve, other than making me move stuff, what are you working on? let me show you. okay. our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place and lets you visualize that information for any options series. okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. impressive... what's up, tim. td ameritrade. parts a and b and want more coverage, guess what? you could apply for a medicare supplement insurance plan whenever you want. no enrollment window. no waiting to apply. that means now may be a great time to shop for an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. medicare doesn't cover everything. and like all standardized medicare supplement insurance plans, these help cover some of what medicare doesn't pay. so don't wait. call now to request your free decision guide. it could help you find the
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great time for a shiny floor wax, no? not if you just put the finishing touches on your latest masterpiece. timing's important. comcast business knows that. that's why you can schedule an installation at a time that works for you. even late at night, or on the weekend, if that's what you need. because you have enough to worry about. i did not see that coming. don't deal with disruptions. get better internet installed on your schedule. comcast business. built for business. traders are expecting big moves from two tech giants tomorrow. >> google and microsoft, about
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$1 trillion in the cap. the options market is implying about 6.5%, one-day move in either direction. that is versus the average over the last four quarters of 6.5%. option traders think that it's basically a move, basically in line with how the stock has moved over the last four quarters. microsoft, implied move is about 4.6% in either direction. what's really interesting about this one is that the stock has moved on average about 7.5% over the last four quarters. i don't know if you guys remember, but last quarter the stock rallied 10% after its earnings. there was actually another 10% rise on earnings a couple quarters before that. so when you think about one of the largest market cap companies in the world, moving 10% at a clip, that's pretty significant. you want to put some dollar signs around it. alphabet's moving either direction, $36 billion. microsoft, $20 billion. the microsoft move, i've got to tell you, is probably a bit high when you look at the muted
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reaction that intel had today, and maybe qualcomm in the aftermarket. i would expect probably the stock to consolidate in and around 56 bucks. alphabet, on the other hand, who knows. good luck with that one. >> all right. dan, thanks for that. what is the best place in tech to put your money ahead of these reports? a five-star fund manager manages more than $2.7 billion in assets, josh, great to speak with you. >> thanks for having me. >> so in your view, it's all about the cloud. and yet the cloud means a lot of different things to a lot of different people and a lot of different players. i'm wondering what area of the cloud do you like? it seems like there are some areas where there is pricing pressure, more of a commoditized product. >> there's two big areas of the cloud. the first is infrastructure, and that's like amazon web services as well as microsoft's azure division, which has really been driving that stock. and then the software side, companies like workday and sales force, and service now who put
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up some great numbers after the bell tonight. i think both sides are good. i'm a big fan of amazon. i'm also a big fan of sales force work day and some of the software providers. >> why do you like amazon? in your view, is awf a big part of the valuation there? you're paying for a lot of other stuff in amazon, not just cloud. >> well, i like both sides of the business. but the awf side is really winning in this huge market. to think of a company that's at $8 billion in revenues, 8 in a market that's hundreds of billions of dollars. and with a huge lead. even against companies like microsoft and google. amazon is years ahead. i think we'll be talking about this story for years to come. >> you say also that you've added a fair amount to your position in tesla. given the "consumer reports'" concerns and concerns about the quality of the model x and execution there, when did you add to your position, and is that a factor in your decision?
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>> i was adding fairly aggressively in february when we had the big sell-off in growth stocks, including tesla. also some of the software companies we talked about. i'm not that concerned about the early quality issues on the model x. this tends to happen with new models. and tesla had that happen with the model s and ironed it out over time. i also think they're learning cycle by cycle, and that the model 3 is unlikely to have some of these issues. >> and you sold your position to microsoft. why? why don't you like it anymore? >> i still like what microsoft is doing fundamentally, but as you talked about in the segment just before, it has become a much bigger market cap company. a lot more has gotten baked in. the valuation i think is fairly full here. >> josh we're going to leave it there. appreciate your time. >> thank you. >> josh spencer of the t. rowe price global tech fund. what do we think of the cloud, pete? >> i still love microsoft.
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i'm still a part of that whole thing. amazon is an interesting play. it's one of those if you have to do an either/or, they're completely different. valuation, everything when you look at the two different companies. but ecommerce streaming and the cloud, he said years ahead of everybody in the cloud, makes you want to look at amazon a little bit closer. >> i tell you what, though, look at amazon did when we had the last swoon in the market. it got absolutely killed. after this rip, i would be careful. i understand the points on it. just be careful. if we get any type of pullback, amazon's going to take it on the chin. >> you talked about the cloud space. go pure play and s.a.p. they've outperformed there. those are names, work day underperformed. crm is somewhere in the middle. if you have to be in there, aws, everything to b.k.'s point has to be working with the market for this one to work. >> it's interesting what he said about microsoft. we don't usually hear them say it's expensive. microsoft trading at 20 times,
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you know it will be at mid single earnings in sales growth. people think about capital return. giving back $100 billion to shareholders over the past several years. up next, final trade. stay tuned.
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this shouldn't be about one picture on bill. i'm excited about it. i think it's much bigger than just honoring one woman. this is about saying that our money's not going to tell a much bigger part of our story. >> that was treasury secretary jack lew talking about the changes made to the $20 bill. harriet turembman will now be featured on the bill. >> to replace andrew jackson, a guy who didn't like currency at all, not a bad way to replace it. i know pete knew andrew jackson very well -- what was it, 1862? >> time for the final trade. steve? >> i'm going to the options. this thing's been on an absolute rocketship. >> twitter. ahead of earnings, 55 times is
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the charm in this. >> watch the agricultural space. these things are on fire. mosaic m.o.s., you can buy it. >> express up up a couple bucks. i wouldn't chase it here. my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now! >> i'm cramer. welcome to cramerica. my job is not just to entertain but to educate and teach you so call me. or tweet me @jim cramer. do you know what? people just don't want to believe that things could be improving in this world. they don't want to accept that

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