tv Fast Money CNBC May 3, 2016 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT
betting on helping you clean out your insides, too. thank you for joining us. rob cox, michael santoli. "fast money" begins right now. kelly, thanks so much. fast money looking over times square. our traders on the desk, pete, karen, dan and brian. tonight on fast, everyone obsesses about apple. there's another tech stock that's on a brutal losing streak. and it's piquing the interest of some of our traders. we're going to give you the name. a top strategist said we're setting up for an 11% rally in the s&p. what has him so bullish. stevie cohen set the bull market is coming to an end. what's got him so worried? but first, apple's long national nightmare finally over. the stock surging more than 2% today, closing just off the highs, lifting the markets along
with it. and it all started with these comments. >> when i read the stories, it seems like people think it's over. how can it be that you can't have this system? >> i think that's a huge overreaction. look, we just had a -- actually, an incredible quarter by absolute standards. 50 billion plus in revenues and 10 billion in profits. to put that in perspective, the 10 billion is more than any other company makes. so it's pretty good quarter. but not up to the street's expectations, cleefrl. >> that's tim cook with jim cramer exclusively last night. the tim cook turn-around. that's what happened today. >> it was very oversold. a lot of negativity about it. it was due for a bounce here. the fact that tim cook had to go up to ec to sit down with jim cramer to get that bounce is a
little concerning. if i was an investor, it wouldn't make me feel that well. and get like a 1.5% bounce today. it just wouldn't. i think today it smacks of desperation. >> bounce in a bad tape. >> stock down 10% on the year. >> even in a short-term bounce? i'm saying, was tim cook's reason for doing that interview for a short-term bounce? >> not at all. i don't think he thinks day to day. in the interview he says, i don't even know where the stock closed. i give him that credit. it doesn't have anything to do with tim cook. >> the stock had its worst losing streak in some 18 years. was down eight straight days before today. the premise of the question and the answer was, did the street get it wrong on the earnings? tim cook said essentially yes. >> he said yes, i say no. the earnings to dan's point, when you stop being the growth company that people are expecting, when you don't hit the knobs that people are looking for, they'll look for
every reason in the world to hit the street. i think it's the right reaction, but it depends whether you're short term or long term. i'm long term. jim cramer talked about the services area today. talking about the area that is growth. $6 billion, 20% growth, that's the area where i think that continues to grow. when you've got the customer appreciation level of 95%, they are satisfied. >> i just have to interrupt her. >> come on in, big boy. >> those services revenues were down. they were up 20%. you know what they were last quarter? up 26%. they're not exciting. people are seeing through this sort of stuff. the fact that tim cook has to go on jim cramer's show and -- >> he's characterizing it like he called up jim cramer and said, i need to go on your show, and i need to stop this losing streak. >> if he wasn't on the show today, would the stock have been up or down. >> i don't think he cares. >> what i'm saying is, the
answers were poor. >> the only part i agree with you that the answers were poor is when he gave the two-year example in terms of china. that part i would agree with you. other than that, he came on there to defend exactly what they're doing and the direction in which they're going, and services will be a huge component. >> let's look at the company. all they've done -- they've upgraded the iphone, and that's all the business is. going forward, what is the growth driver for this? i don't know what it is. it used to be china. he came on last night and tried to -- >> you want to get me started on -- >> on the conference call, last week he said india is where china was 7 to 10 years ago. if you're holding your breath for india, that's a problem. hold on one sec. let me just tell you. the annual -- iphone costs 26% of the annual household income in india. 13% in china. less than 2% in america. so yes, we have the lower price
now. that means lower margins. don't hold your breath for india. >> you guys are talking about apple as if it's already gone the way of a blackberry. >> dan is. >> b.k. said they haven't executed on anything. >> they haven't. all they have eve done is upgrade the phone. they've done a great job of upgrading the phone, but what else have they done? they were supposed to revolutionize the music industry. >> they sold 12 million watches in a year. >> how many of those watches do you see walking around? it was a flop. >> are people being too quick to write apple off? >> new long term, you bought it last week. >> i've been long for a little over a decade. i believe in the company. i believe in where their direction is. i also thought it was interesting, tim cook pointed this out about the acquisitions, he said, you know, we do three or four of those a month. they don't make major acquisitions, still the largest acquisition they've made to
date. >> based on the beets performance they shouldn't be making acquisitions. what's the major acquisition that they've done anything with. even the small ones they haven't done anything with. >> have you ever owned apple? >> sure. >> when was the last time you were in the stock? >> years ago. i did try to short it. >> he's going to tell you that you missed out on these tremendous gains over the last -- >> no, i wasn't going to do that, i just wanted to know if he owned the stock. >> it was years ago. >> since you brought it up. >> by the way, were they having a sale at ricky's on bear suits today? the world has universally been in love with their products. look at the sell side, the stock down 30% from the all-time highs. they're still 45 buys, and that doesn't really matter. i don't care what the sell side is, except when they move in mass. if they downgraded their views
of the stock last week, then it would become more in line with basically investors. >> they probably wanted to, because the price targets are obviously still sort of way up there. even the most bullish would probably tell you that, you know, maybe it's time to pull that in. they're thinking more big picture, longer term, karen. >> i don't really see a catalyst in the short term. i think the more disappointing thing than last quarter is the guidance for the next quarter. that was actually more disappointing. i agree with pete that two-year china, that they talked -- that tim cook talked about, that was also a little bit disappointing. he's saying we don't get credit for $10 million of revenue. they are a $520 billion market cap. so they're getting credit for something. all that being said, i don't think -- you know, this is what we call dead money. i'm okay owning dead money with a fantastic balance sheet. i'll wait. i believe the seven cycle. i'll wait. >> let's be constructive. for people who are sitting there
determining whether they're going to buy this stock today at, what, 94 and change -- let's call it 95 after the comeback. do you buy it? >> you do, especially if your game plan is don't touch it. even end of the year, that's more difficult. but if you actually believe, i know dan does not, but i believe in the end story. the progress will open up the opportunities, i think, in tiff parts of the world. >> let me bring another voice into the conversation. that is jim cramer himself who is watching the program and says tim, quote, 1% cook in the desperate bid to break the eight-day streak? is this a baseball league? >> this is a jim cramer, thank you for watching the program. and it's not what i said. i said it was a pretty anemic balance. he spent an hour on your show, a fantastic interview, i just didn't think he answered the questions well. it wouldn't make me feel better about the longer term stuff. i believe in the fact that india
is an amazing long-term growth opportunity. i wouldn't hold your breath for it right now. like karen said, there's really nothing on the product front other than the iphone front. they just guided gross margins in the quarter they introduced a new low-end phone to 39%. the peak was 43.87 in 2012. when they introduced the iphone 5. the stock sold off 45% in the period they went from 44% gross margins down to 39%, where they are guiding to about now. the stock sold off 45%. we are down 30%. i think it can go down 35%, 45% from last year's highs, over the next six months, while you wait for that new phone. that's my trade. >> i thought i made my case already, but i'll go right back at it. i disagree. i think the acceleration will go a little faster than you expect. >> why? >> because i don't think -- >> the shift is changing dramatically towards lower
priced phones. it was 691, all-time high. android asp, 80% of the market share globally, 215. they're a third of the price of apple. there's no way they're going to be able to maintain these gross margins. if you're holding your breath, waiting for the opportunity and the smartphone penetration to happen, it will happen at a less price point than these phones. that's what i believe investors are trading. >> are 11 times earnings? >> good. >> any yield. >> all right. be sure to tune in to "mad money" tonight. jim cramer has even more with apple's ceo tim cook. you don't want to miss it, 6:00 p.m., eastern time. we have breaking news here. the story in chicago. phil? >> scott, it looks like more recalls may be coming for takata, as it is close to
announcing the recall of 35 million more air bag inflaters, according to dow jones. remember, they've already recalled more than 28 million of these air bag inflaters. it's been estimated that eventually we could see a recall of more than 80 millionaire bags, and air bag inflaters here in the u.s. again, dow jones reporting that the federal government is poised to announce takata recalling another 35 millionaire bags and air bag inflaters. scott? >> phil lebeau, thanks so much. you guys want to trade this? auto sales? >> they haven't done a great job of managing this crisis. >> let's just talk auto sales today. we had good auto sales today. the question is, how sustainable. are we at peak auto sales. my view is we probably are, when you listen to the auto dealers. we are at peak auto sales. while everyone's talking about apple, very quietly a
different tech stock just hit a new all-time low. it's attracting a lot of attention on the desk. and a bold call, saying we may have finally witnessed the bottom for the u.s. dollar. find out what has that firm so bullish now. we're all over the after-hours action. zilo higher. we will have the latest from the calls. we're back after this.
money." just to tie up one thing on this apple conversation we were having, a lot of numbers were being thrown out. and one may have been thrown out inadvertently. >> i think i accidently said $10 billion in revenue, not profits. if that was the case, dan is going to be so spot-on. >> that's really good margins. >> profits. >> i'm glad we did that. thank you. take a look at twitter. ugly story, fall near 3%, hitting a near all-time low, $13.90 a share. which is a more than 80% drop from its all-time high of $74.73 back in early 2013. pete, ugly story obviously. >> it gets uglier.
jack dorsey has to figure out how to get the advertising going back to twitter. we know who stole the social media advertising budget, facebook's winning, twitter's not. look at their monthly active users, about the same. somewhere around the 310 million area. it continues to hold there. when you look at the guidance, q-2 guidance, they're looking for 677 million, they projected around 600 million, something like that. it just is not showing us any life at all. that's why there's still pressure on this stock. i see no reason yet to get in this name. the only thing anybody's convinced me about twitter under 18 is maybe it's an acquisition target. but that's not a great recipe to go in and say i'm buying it for that reason alone. >> it's a disappointing stock. i've opened it and gotten -- lost money on it. my point is, we all use it.
we all see the value in it. but somehow it's not -- >> others see the value in it. >> apparently it's been a heck of a trap. my point is, until they -- i don't think they should focus on monthly active users. they're not facebook, they're not going to grow like that. focus on the people using it now and embrace the fact they're the largest newsroom in the world. when they do that, the advertisers will come back. until then, b.k.'s got to stay away. >> the story is remarkable when you look at twitter, and facebook, and some of these other social media players. most specifically facebook. >> you know, facebook has a $336 billion market cap for a reason. when you look at twitter's enterprise value of $8 billion, you say, they have 320 million active users, and facebook has 1.5 billion and growing. twitter is way too cheap of an asset of a property, of a platform, of a product. there's a lot of things they're obviously not doing right. they're not growing their audience, and that's a big problem. if you have patience, i've been
long it, i've been wrong it, but if you have patience someone else will figure it out for them or they will actually crack the code themselves. >> is it about live video? i still don't know what's going to move this thing. live video, nfl, but the nfl story came and went. suddenly we're not talking about that anymore either. so what is the driver? >> the problem, i think, the street rightly or wrongly at this point is fixated on the growth of the monthly active users. >> and if they can't answer that question as to when that growth is going to pick up, because it's been stagnant for several quarters now, that's the issue. how can you get more bullish on a story when the metric is not change. >> unless the management can say we're doing something different, then i'll get excited. as long as they're focusing on monthly active users, it's not happening. >> not an entirely new idea, clsa's mike mayo saying goldman
needs to deal with precious shareholders to diversify its businesses. and that buying a trading platform would increase deposits by $52 billion. do you like the mayo or pass the mayo? >> i love the mayo. he's a analyst. i don't know why goldman would need to go market to get the etrade customer. i think you'll be able to get deposits elsewhere. i don't think it's critical. i don't think it's -- i don't think it's where goldman sachs is heading. or should head. but i love the mayo. >> it would tarnish the brand in a bit. not that etrade is a bad name. what i'm saying is, goldman sachs has this perception of the investment banker to the world, right? they're doing these big deals. so to go downstream like that to me kind of tarnishes the brand elsewhere, in my view. they do need to find growth. it's a tough operating environment for banks in general. but still, goldman still seems
to be the best -- >> tarnishing the brand -- >> you mean themselves, you mean? >> i tend to lead towards what you're saying. i think the premise is sort of interesting to kick around. but do we think this ever shows up in reality? i would think not. it just doesn't seem like something -- it doesn't seem like the direction goldman wants to take. >> for example, ubs had a terrible wealth management quarter. that's what their expertise is. that's what they're good at. they would be much better off than buying etrade. conference call under way. julia boorstin is there in l.a. in the meantime, here's what else is coming up on fast. >> that's what traders want to know about the dollar, which continues to make new lows.
but a top strategist said the bottom is in. and he'll tell us what has him so bullish. plus, a top brokerage firm said the s&p is about to rally 10%. >> what are you talking about, willis? >> what do they see that others don't? the man behind the call will be here to explain when "fast money" returns.
welcome back to "fast money." we have an earnings alert on cbs. julia boorstin, give us the details out in l.a. >> well, scott, cbs ceo is riding high on the highest quarterly earnings ever. surprising growth in advertising. giving a bullish outlook for ad sales saying he believes the company could see double-digit
pricing increases. cbs expects to set a record for political ad revenue in a presidential election year. he also said the digital ads are going to be increasingly important, but you still get more bang for your buck with broadcast. >> clearly there's a shift in dollars coming back to network television. part of this is because there are questions now arising about the effectiveness of certain digital advertising platforms. and as a recent study by standard media index showed, there is a direct correlation between tv advertising and sales results. >> as for the rise of all the new digital options that consumers have, as well as the skinny bundles, he said smaller tv bundles are a huge positive for cbs, with subscriber rates for cbs higher than what cbs gets from its other current tv distribution partners. when asked about those reports that cbs is looking to collapse
is two classes of shares. he says that cbs is a strong independent board and is evaluating all the options out there. he said he won't comment on rumors. as for the spin-off of the radio business, he said creating a stand-alone company seems to make the most sense. they're also evaluating interest from outside parties. tomorrow a first on cbs interview, that's going to be on "squawk on the street." >> julia, thanks so much. julia boorstin live in l.a. advertising strong. >> this ties into the exact conversation we were having about twitter. what he's saying, certain properties, offline, talking about twitter, they know facebook's doing very well, one of the things that twitter did say is they are changing more towards video ads. that was one 6 tof the reasons the bad guidance. maybe budgets are being redistributed. we talked about the election year, it's going to be big for tv. but don't forget the second stream lastly on cbs, expected to have about 20% eps growth, trading 14 times.
>> i thought the most interesting thing was the election year. we know there's going to be huge advertising coming. every election cycle, newspapers and tv. so places i would look is newscorp, that's another way to play this. "new york times" is another way to play the election year. >> are you saying you like this? >> i like this along with. if you want to pick something else, say, maybe disney's not going to get as much ads, and you want to offset any market risk, you could short disney against buying cbs. that's not a knock on disney, just to do a pair straight. >> what has one top strategist saying the s&p is about to rally another 11% higher from here. and later, very, very rare comments from hedge fund legend steve cohen. he says the bull market is coming to an end. it's the shocking sound that has the entire street talking tonight. we're going to bring you those comments when "fast money" returns.
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welcome back to "fast money." here's what's coming up in the second half. the dollar is on the decline. but is the worst finally over? the strategist tells us the secret sign that the dollar has finally found the floor. steve cohen saying the bull run is over. the shocking reasons he thinks investors are in for more pain. later this hour. let's start with the markets. at one point today, the dow was down more than 200 points. the volatility has you thinking about selling, our next guest has a clear message, don't. the s&p is about to rally 11%. let's go running with the bulls now. the managing director, chief investment strategist with oppenheimer. currently has the street's second highest year-end target on the s&p 500. john, thanks for being on. >> good to see you as well. pleasure. >> some people think that this rally is about to roll over. you're saying you think it could keep going. why? >> john, i think it could go on.
particularly what we saw, the strength of the rally from february 11th through the end of march. then we kind of waffled in april. not uncommon after you've had a powerful rally to come to this type of a malaise. people focus on slower growth, worries about china. it's not that those aren't legitimate concerns, it's just that the overall effect is, this u.s. economy is growing, at a sustainable pace. and you still have significant negativity around equities. the functionality of equities is beginning to becoming obvious to a lot of people in a world where interest rates are still near zero interest rate protocol. >> some will say it's growing at a sustainable pace of 2/3 of 1%. how sustainable should that be. >> not uncommon. >> the fed could move in june.
others might say, and some will probably say the exact same thing on this desk, what's really changed since the february lows? >> well, i think that a considerable amount has changed. for one, we've got stabilization in the price of oil. if anything, oil has rebounded something like 70%, even though to date came off of its recent highs. but it's rebounded over 70%, but remains off over 50% from the june 20th, 2014 highs. you've got the dollar now in decline. 9 out of 10 g-10 currencies, and down against 20-some emerging market currencies, those were all big worries. there was worries about the strength of the dollar against the emerging markets. >> right. i guess, john, i'm sorry, i guess my point is that, yes, i mean, i know what those assets have done. but the point is, they haven't done it on any fundamental
change. they've done it on technical moves, or for whatever other reason they have reversed course. the bearish case is, though, they have to reverse again. the dollar is done going down. and that oil's done going up. >> i disagree with you. i think what we have here is not so much that oil will go back up, or the dollar will start back on an upward trend, but i think what we're really looking at at this point is we get a little bit of stability in here, the biggest problem you have is when the equity markets and bond markets have been taken hostage by the commodities market, or currencies market, you get the type of volatility, the trading on feel versus fundamentals that takes over a market and creates volatility for a while. but when things settle back in, and you've still got the fed highly accommodative, q-e in europe, the chinese genuinely trying to turn their situation around, nothing is easy. but the overall effect to me
looks like we've got a good chance at 2300 this year on the s&p. >> john, thanks so much. >> thanks for having me. >> you bet. let's get the other side. >> the other side is everything that john mentioned is already in this. at 1810, all those concerns probably didn't look that concerning. 2060, now you've got to be concerned about all that. we look around the world, as you mentioned, nothing's really changed. >> you don't think we get from 1810 to 28? >> no, it's gone much further than i thought. that doesn't mean that my view has changed. we could see another sell-off here without a doubt. let's look at oil. oil's up, like he said, 70%, maybe 40% or so. tomorrow we could get an oil inventory number that shows 80-year highs. i don't care how you slice it, that's oversupply in weak demand. i just think the runs in everything has been overdone. and at 2060, the last thing you want to do is getting raging
bull. >> is this overdone to the upside as the decline was to the down side? >> why can't we see some sort of a rotation. it's been energy, materials, utilities, that's what moved the market to where we are now. we haven't seen enough participation out of the financials. not saying that we should. because i'm looking at some of those names. >> but you have from the dimon bottom -- >> and that's held still. >> but we haven't tested it yet. >> it's a pretty nice run. >> i'll give you we've had a nice run. but it hasn't held. >> if you look at some of the other areas right now, why not see the rotation, maybe from -- >> karen? >> i think dorm ha wha was a te. >> that's a fair point. >> listen, i've got to tell you, i think that gentleman said from oppe, since stabilization the february bottom, if the dollar doesn't do what it does, we
don't have the stabilization. i don't think -- >> it did what it did and we have this rally. >> think about what central banks are doing right now, the ecb and japan have gone to negative interest rates and their currencies gone the exact opposite way. here's the thing. our fed just told us last week that the -- >> what? >> they've upgrade d -- >> i get all blustery, but we hear a lot of nonsense. central bankers have lost control. so the fact of the matter is, last week the fed told us that, you know, they actually upgraded the globe, and downgraded the u.s. now the dollar's going down. they're going to become more accommodative. >> i'm just saying, the markets, you are what the market says you are, like bill parcels. >> last week a calamity was said to be coming. this is my macro main man over here, tells me that central bankers have lost control. that calamity will probably come
sooner than later. >> a legitimate question whether central bankers and policies have lost its efficacy. >> the markets have spoken, right? the markets have spoken on the ecb, the -- >> they have. they've gone up. >> no, the currency markets. i should clarify that. look at it. look at japan. >> don't talk about the u.s. >> but that's -- we can't just -- what do you mean? we're barely up for the year. come on, are you kidding me? we're talking like the market's up 20% for the year. we're barely flat for the year. >> we're barely flat in 18 months. >> exactly. look at what's gone on with the japanese, the nikkei, 225. these are all down. >> but don't you think there's been great opportunities for positioning, for trading, and going along with the rotation that's constantly going out in this market? because we've had the moves that have gone from the over 2000 down to 1800. >> we've made a ton of money on the gold because of the weak
dollar. there's always opportunities as a trader. what i'm saying here is nothing fundamentally has changed. and at 2060, you need to be extremely careful in this market. >> all right. we'll make that the last word. we do have a news alert on under armour moving lower after hours. seema? >> scott, that's right, under armour announcing key management changes. stafford will be leaving the company this july. also announced that michael lee, the co-founder of my fitness pal, will be the chief digital officer, as robert thurston will leave in july. shares off about 2% after hours. but still up 4% over the past 12 months. scott? >> all right, seema mody, thanks so much. pete, this is yours. >> you look at where it is right now, trading on the 200-day moving average. they come out with the earnings and destroy it the way they have. they've done a great job of managing the professional world as well.
and giving 24e8 selves a global footprint they needed. get that through basketball, get through golf, and obviously in the u.s., they do a great job with the sponsorship with tom brady. now, this is one of these names, you look at where it trades on a multiple, we talk about that all the time, it is a high multiple. but their growth is just as high. >> they would argue they're just getting started. by the way, news out earlier today that bryce harper, the washington nationals star, the biggest deal in major league baseball. you've got athletes who are at the top of their sports. >> and they're adding a great -- they're getting themselves placed better and better into college sports as well. they just had a contract the other day, california berkeley, $85 million deal with cal berkeley. they're getting into the big ten, in the pac-12, and obviously they're with merrill in the big ten. they're getting even bigger. >> i'm not going to bet against this name at all.
everything pete has mentioned i think is fantastic. i think you might get it at better prices. >> another stock? or wait for this to come in? >> i wait for it to come in. i like what they're doing. they've made fantastic awhich situations. i wait for the stock to come in. it will be in the 30s before i look at this. >> international is 15% of their sales right now. when that starts to turn on, that's going to be huge. we know how huge nike is in china. this is a brand, especially with the people you mentioned, the professionals, that could go national in a big way. >> still ahead, the secret sign that the dollar crush could finally be coming to an end, right after the break. rare comments from steve cohen on why this could be the end of the bull market. kelly is here with the words that are sending chills through the street.
>> we're at the end of a bull market. multiples are very high. you don't really have that same wind at your back where everything levitates up. i'm not just talking about being long, i'm saying, in general, money is flowing into the markets. i call it the big bathtub that big money washes over here, and washes over here and then comes back the other way. it actually requires more timing skills. >> during the panel, cohen acknowledged his office had been down 8%. a decline that stemmed from long momentum stocks at a time when the market was in fact rotating into value instead. cohen's fears were realized by that 8% downdraft. a move caused by too many hedge funds in the same trades, deleveraging at the same time according to him. it happens at a moment where the portfolio manager in the market is particularly scarce, he added. cohen's now flat for the year from what i'm told.
as you well know, scott, others like bill ackman are having a far harder time at the moment, too, raising questions about redemptions and pressure on that 2-20 model. >> karen finerman has a question for you, kate. >> given that steve cohen is running his own money, i would see the moves to february would allow someone like him who doesn't have to worry about month to month, that he would really benefit from that kind of movement. >> you might think so. in this case, they were just wrongly positioned. i know this from a couple of sources, too. he said on this panel last night, he said this 8% downdraft happened over four days. he was really worried about this grouping in the market and corollary effect it would have on him. and the other thing is, he makes money on more esoteric situations, which is how he put it. if you look at .72 holdings, they changed what they're holding every day, but they hold
a lot of major names. a lot of highly liquid names. he means there's something in the financials that people haven't noticed or some sort of thesis at work that wouldn't be your longer term thesis. but still, i was surprised by that, too. >> the other thing, kate, is that end of a bull market, making a comment like that, the context is a little bit hard to grasp sometimes. that could have many, many more months to run. or it could be he thinks it means the bull market will end next month. you don't know. >> you don't know. in the context of it, scott, it was a panel, but they said, if you look at it, we're in a six to seven-year bull run in equities right now. there's a general feeling on the panel, and i think cohen was echoing this, that we're in the later stages. you're absolutely right, the three months, is it a year and a half? probably not two years, or three years. but how much within that spread
really matters, right? >> hard to know. as you said, it is extraordinarily rare when we do hear from steve cohen, so when he does speak, we take note. thank you very much. >> thank you. >> kate kelly, along with several others, including myself, will be at the zone conference all day, covering some of the biggest market moving names tomorrow. halftime report, we look forward to that at 12:00 noon eastern. we'll talk about a lot of names. many you know. you do not want to miss that. and be sure -- well, we already did that. you know what, jim is going to be on for the full hour again. >> he's always good, too. >> that's great. >> still ahead, could the dollar finally be headed for some relief? the crush is over, the man behind the call to make his case right after the break. ♪ you're not gonna watch it! ♪
♪ we can't let you download on the goooooo! ♪ ♪ you'll just have to miss it! ♪ yeah, you'll just have to miss it! ♪ ♪ we can't let you download... uh, no thanks. i have x1 from xfinity so... don't fall for directv. xfinity lets you download your shows from anywhere. i used to like that song. the dollar rebounding today after locking in a 15.5-month low earlier in the session. our next guest suggests the bigger move higher could be ahead. robin, welcome to fast.
>> great. thanks to be there with you. >> what backs up this thesis that you have that the dollar is going to make this move? >> we just think that it's probably fallen as far as it's likely to do. it's fallen quite heavily against most major currencies. the dollar index, also against the euro, the japanese yen, it's fallen very sharply. and with the nonfarm payrolls ahead on friday, we think that could be a very strong number. job creation above the 200,000 level. and we think that the fed should start to lift rates in the second half of this year. >> yep. brian kelly, up here on the desk, has a question for you. >> robin, i'm curious, in this dollar call, is this kind of a short-term ahead of the jobs number? or are you calling for something much larger, where let's call
it, say the dollar index gets above 100 again? >> yes, that would be our expectation, that it's more of a medium to longer term move, given that we've seen quite a lot of weakness for good ropes in the dollar. so it's more than just looking beyond the friday's nonfarm payrolls through the end of 2016, and also through into 2017. >> the risk, though, is that the fed stays on hold longer than you expect. which has been the correct play, not relative to your outlook. but almost everybody else's in terms of thinking the fed was going to move, and the fed didn't move. >> correct. i think it's fed in what is an election year to be seen to be perhaps influenced one way or the other. somebody said to me, you're not going to get a rate increase until december. i would -- i would be happy with
that. but i think if the data continues to be good, t jobs fr and we gete inflationary pressures, some lift in wage increases, then perhaps a june increase wouldn't be out of order as well. >> robin, appreciate the time. head of metals research. we've got a trade here? >> fed funds future pricing 12% in june. it's not likely anything will happen there. about the dollar, i mean -- >> the street is so offside. >> it would be nearly impossible. but i would say when you think about rates, look at the yield in the 10-year treasury at 1.8. the dollar and treasuries are telling you rates aren't going anywhere. the economy is not doing nearly as well as what whatever that job print is on friday. >> the other side of this is -- we've already seen the strength in the yen. corona talked about the fact they're going to do more easing if they need to do it. we've also had the bank of japan
say that. these moves have been one-sided. those are the magical words that those central bankers use to say, you know what, we're coming back into this market. i think mario draghi is having a freakout, too. >> there are those that make the argument that the jobs number is the true representation of what the economy is, and not the gdp. >> yeah. you hear that. i think the other thing is, just going back to what robin was talking about, i think it's interesting, because we had such great paper telling us about some of these metals, gold, silver, some of these obviously a reflection of the dollar. it's really interesting. we have not seen that continue the way we have. that sort of dried up. we've had this great run. are we going to see those stepped any further than they have? i'm not so sure about that anymore. >> do you think nathan definitely makes that shift over to the telestrator? >> i think he makes it. he's a quick son of a gun. >> a flurry of activity in, where else, but the options pits. our boy dan nathan breaking it
down. >> now we've seen oil, it's done its in trars are starting to lok the other way as it relates to oil and gas. etfs, today, the s&p, oil and gas etf had options volume trading 2 1/2 times average. puts were four times of that calls. one large trade caught my eye today when the etf was trading .7 15,000 in december. 33 puts.ng $3.85. that's about $6 million in premium. it breaks even at 2915 on december expiration. that's down more than 25% from current levels here. so when you think about somebody kind of making that sort of bet near the money, very serious premium committed, that's probably some sort of protection trade. bmaybket of oil and gas stocks. here's the xlp. we've seen the long downtrend here. it's consolidating. you may see a retest back to that downtrend line.
here's the five-year. obviously you can drive the lines wherever you want here. you don't really want to see it break that downtrend and go below it. here's crude oil. obviously looks the same way i would expect if the dollar's going to be range-bound and the dxy in the 94 range, we won't see it go a heck of a lot higher than these levels. >> not giving us what would dan do now? >> that's friday at 5:30 in options actions here, people. >> you did the tease. i don't have is. 5:30 p.m. on friday. the traders tell you what they're watching tomorrow, right after the break. the call just came in. she's about to arrive. and with her, a flood of potential patients.
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of the next patient.. no problem. it's a pretty huge file. done. sorry for the wait. that was quick. as part of our research, i also compared lab results with notes about prior treatments, then cross referenced it with thousands of medical journals. and i get the benefit of much more data, and a lot more time to plan the best treatments. i stay focused 24/7 and never sleep. you sound like a lot of medical students i know. time for the final trade. around the horn we go. pete? >> i'm going right back to minnesota. target's going higher. this thing's too cheap. >> a homer, okay. >> live nation. reporting again tonight, beat on most metrics. they've done a fantastic job there. >> for you guys trading apple, it will present the opportunities. i do believe you have a short-term time rise, use $92 stop. that's the low over the last year. >> mr. kelly?
>> igoing into the jobs report n friday, buy. >> good number? >> thanks. >> it's been >> fast money, half time tomorrow. mad money with jim cramer begins now. my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. i promise to help you find it. mad money starts now. >> welcome to mad money. welcome to cramerica. call me at 1-800-747-cnbc or tweetny @jimcramer. sell what's toouc