tv Street Signs CNBC May 5, 2016 4:00am-5:01am EDT
>> guiding dividend will increase a minimum of 10 br% >> tesla shares ending higher. despite another round of executive departures. and coming up. bond guru jeffrey gundlach says negative rates are part of the problem. so what then is the solution. >> really trying to fight deflation with deflation which is sort of like trying to put out the fire in your house by pouring gasoline on it. not a good side. >> good morning. and welcome to "street signs." we did get a bit of good news across the markets. kicking off in the green. although we are seeing some weakness in the french market. this as investors can't to chemo an eye on oil. both wti and brent moving sharply up.
moves of over a dollar as fighting in libya threatens to halt the flow of oil from the country. and this while a massive wild fire in canada has disrupted its oil production. that wild fire has forces 80,000 people to flee their homes. a state of emergency has been declared in the entire province of alberta. the moves to the up in the oil price helping oil majors here in europe. also looking at -- earnings this morning dropped 38% at rep sol. but the good news is that figure was better than expected. rel sol up in spain. the spanish oil joint also said activity in the refining business helped offset weak nns overall crude prices. rel solve one of the top movers.
let's give you a broader view trading in europe. an hour into the session here. good news for the markets so far in may it's been a rough month. you will until today's open we are some 2 to 3% across the continent. the market here this morning, getting a boost from bt. also the oil majors seeing a rebound in basic resources as well. the xetra dax is flat at the moment. franch cac 40 dipping and the italian main market up by half a percent. and bt is is at the top of the ftsisy 100 after beating expectations. the telecoms giant also announced it was spending about
6 billion pounds on rolling out super fast fiber optic and broadband. ceo gavin patterson rebuffed speculation linking bt with a takeover of uk broadcaster channel 4. >> as far as i'm aware channel 4 isn't up for sale and in any case we wouldn't comment on any sort of speculation. what i would say is the focus i guess or the center of gravity of the company is changing. we're becoming less dependent on open reach to drive the profits for the group as the whole. 60% of the profits are in the unregulated downstream part of bt in the uk now. >> growing aggressively. and with that comes this very large increase in net debt. we know why of course because most is ee. do you see that your acquisition
strategy is going toi isease of now? are the shareholders saying you bought a lot of stuff and gone massive, is it time to bet everything in now and see how -- or actually do you just carry on with the big deals? >> the ee deal is a significant one. we've started the integration process. it's gone well. today we'll be upgrading the markets and forecast by 10, approximate. in terms of our priorities, it is paying down that debt. we do generate a significant cash flow as the business. but we do want to use that to pay down debt. but at the same time we can offer investorers an increased dividend. and today we're guiding over the next two years dividend will increase by a minimum of 10% in each of the next two fiscalfisc
>> joining us is equity analyst at bruin dauphin. pleasure to have you with us. the stock getting a bump today after erjs. is it they beat forecast or something somewhere in here? >> i think it is quite a dividend. there was already a decent rise backed in. think think the free cash flow guidance a couple of years out and confirmation that there is growth in the revenue line. >> let's talk about what sells potentially baked in. we. >> my model i had 1% revenue growth out ten years. and decent cost cutting numbers on a stand alone basis. so for me bt wasn't a good value
unless you think there is some value in the ee deal. excluding that it is more or less fairley valid than if the deal with create value there is maybe some upside. >> the nounsd from bt to invest another 6 billion bounds on broadband network here. how do you view this? >> i think it is just part of bt's very long-term strategy to improve broadband. at a rate that is good enough to show consistent improvement but not overspending. i think that's been the strategy all along has been to deploy a better network for an okay price. i would image bt would respond to sky saying look, if you want the 6 billion of cap x in yourself, then just go ahead.
it is a sensible strategy to try and get some regulatory relief in return for what is quite big cap ex. >> they got a big regulatory win a few months back. is there still risk we could see the opinion turn differently? >> i think the off come announcement wasn't necessarily completely positive. it did leave the door open for separation. i think the regulatory pressure will probably continue to be there all along. but i think as long as bt shows it is improving its quality of service and allowing enough access, then i think it will be able to go ahead with its strategist. >> and gavin patterson did tell colleagues that gravity is moving away from open reach. do you think we'll see some acquisitions from bt? >> probably no. there is a big question whether content is really that
beneficial. certainly the increase in the tv content and the premier league and other football rights acquisitions ha shown it sob to be value accreted because it's brought more people on the network but having just spent a large amount on ee, maybe there will be something. >> stay with us we're looking at two other companies in the sector. it appears as though they have been unsuccessful. nick, is there any hope this deal gets saved? >> i don't think so. -- came out against it very strongly. it's highly unlikely now. >> the chief concern is when we
talk about -- joining forces but raises the question is is there another buyer. >> i would hope so but i don't know who that might be. might be a private equity buyer. might be -- it is unlikely to be somebody outside of the uk market in terms of a trade buyer. because across border has not historically been that great. i don't think another buyer is going to come in. >> and if we could get a view of the stock as well. it has taken a hit over the last seven days. >> certainly has been very much talked about in the market. it does increase the chance of telephonic requiring further equity funding. has a --.
>> thank you so much. let's move on to one of the losers here in the european session this morning. and that is centrica. the stock off some 8%. this after the company announced plans to raise 750 million pounds through a private placement of shares. they plan to use the money to fund two acquisitions and trim its debt. also a view of inmarsat. the global satellite cutting guidance after first quarter profits fell by 40%. inmarsat said the trading environment was proving tough after demand weakened in the first three months of the year. and at morrisons, their stock is
trading hire after first quarter products. thanks to competitive pricing, improving store standards and fewer promotions which also helped offset structural head winds in the uk super market sector. >> rsa first quarter profits also came in ahead of expectations but premiums well largely due to some asset exposes in latin america and russia. the ceo has warned of a challenging external environment. the earnings still coming here fast and furious. we ant your view. the address is "street signs" europe at cnbc.com. and @stre"street signs" cnbc. let's get a fairing. sharia is standing by. fairly quiet day when you look
at the markets but give us the overall view there. >> well the overall view as you alluded to is one of a little conviction. we do have trade volumes that much thinner on the ground because japan, indonesia thailand are closed. pmy from china. reasonably constructive. above the 50 marker line which means that the sector is in expansionary phase but a slower pace of growth in april. market consolidating at these levels. the pse composite in philippines and the philippine currency under pressure today. and let's not forget as well one of the reasons is political uncertainty relates to the
outcome of the election on may 9th. and it's really down to one man. and potential victory could be very problematic for the philippines because he's been perceived as very very tough on crime and criminals. he's something of a dirty harry in philippine politics. so it could really create a fair degree of uncertainty in the political establishment if he does win on monday. on that note back to you nancy. >> well it appears all the global markets are keeping eye to very political issues around the world. thanks for that update and we are counts down for non pharm payrolls as well. >> the political side here. well he's outlasted 16 other candidates and now donald trump is the presumptive nominee for the republican party. on "street signs" coming up we
in may and going away for metals but an up tick as well we heard from the ceo. he's not a believer in the bear market rally that was going on in commodities. do you agree? >> we've definitely seen. [ inaudible ] however we're at that stage where the chinese government -- inaudible. i would say the demand search has been backed by sentiment. i don't think the real demand is price as good as prices have become now. we were flirting with 70 dollars a ton last week. that was too high and i think we're returning to normty. >> eoality. >> eo. >> china is no surprise. others put their hopes on more stimulus. do you think we're seeing result of some disappointment there. >> i think we've seen the stimulus hard over the first quarter. the challenge is sustaining that is going to be very tough. china went to old school
tactics. and [inaudible] in construction and manufacturing. what they are now doing is having to target that a lot more. they don't want another real strait wubl. with that you have seen sentiment push hard. i think steel production is probably peeking out. with that that means some of the apparent demand for iron ore may not last. >> overcapacity a great issue. not just the demand side of course. how bad is over capacity when we talk about specific sectors? >> -- we have too much of. and we can argument the second derivative may be getting better and still i this i we have 250 million tons too much capacity. let's put that in context. in the uk we have a -- closing down. you need to see somewhere in the order of 50 or of of those type of steel mills close down globally to bring us back to
normal level. that is going to be a long term problem to solve and just an overhang while it is there on margin expansion. >> talk to me about copper hitting a two week low. the challenge can copper is something something. inventory levels are not high. i think around 4800 to 5,000 is about the right level at the present time. >> you see the miners. >> miners last thing they want to do is lower production. higher production in fact helps lower cost. with that the pressure comes do we have to see more capacity
cuts. this rally we started talking about restarts. that is not what we need fundamentally in commodity markets. and markets incentivizing them too at the present time. i don't feel that will last them. >> what extend do you view --. you can't ignore the moves in the dollar as we continue to forecast what the fed will do for the year ahead. >> three head winds for commodities last year. the dollar, lower oil and a weaker china. they have all turned around this year. now in terms of the u.s. dollar we think there will be strengthening in the second quarter. the ux q1 was weak but we think the healt with that we'd be quite cautious in gold. >> do you expect the correlation between oil and metals to
remain? >> the correlation between oil and copper has been strong over the past couple of years. it only tend to break down when you get a fundamental shift either way. with that would have to be oil market probably recovering the second half of the year. we think copper would like that. we'll take into focus the political race under way in london. londoners are heading to the polls today to elect a new mayor. this will replace the outgoing incumbent, boris johnson. all of this as the brexit intensifies the race and garnering attention from the capital. we asked about the significance of the brexit vote. >> i would differentiate from preparing for plan b from talking to banks what they are playing. so we are not really doing any
exercise with regard to brexit. my people always tell me don't answer -- questions. but clearly a brexit, at least in my mind would be the single most important financial event we're having this year. so you need to think through and talk with banks what they would be doing should this happen. i personally hope that the uk stays as part of the european union. but clearly this is a decision of the british people they will take on the 23rd of june. >> what would it feel like across financial markets? >> first i would feel a little more lonely because germany and the uk have always worked together so well in the international arena. and many positions between germany and the uk are to some extent similar. and we share many of the uk positions, as they also share some of ours. with regard to the real danger, i think the biggest danger would be to the uk itself through its
financial center, to its economy. and that would be where the first hit would be actually. should this ever happen. >> well let's give you a look at how futures are trading just before we go to break here. as we did see a shadropoff in u markets. more on that after the break. but first bond king jeffrey gundlach is warning of the dangerous of negative rates, saying central bank verers have problem. and cnbc fed president john williams. and dennis lockheart at 3:05. you don't want to miss those interviews.
back to "street signs." i'm nancy hulgrave and these are your headlines. crude climbs amid disruption fears and wild fires in canada overnight. >> bt beats on the bottom line and ramps up investment in super fast fiber and 4 g connections. putting shares on track for their best day in two months. >> we can offer invests increased dividend and today we're guiding over the next two years dividend will increase by a minimum of 10% in each of the next two fists. >> john kasich suspending his campaign.cals. >> john kasich suspending his campaign. clearing the way for donald trump to become the nominee. >> and alibaba, one manager takes a bearish view on the stock. >> we are short it.
and we are short it for accounting reasons. questions on the metrics and the cash flow. good morning. and welcome back to "street signs." we've got european equities picking up some momentum about 90 minutes into the trading session here. and this is good news for investors who were starting to worry about sell in may and go away. because the 600 has been off nearly 2.5% before the week. but a different picture today. green arrows across the board. and the italian minute has been the outperformer all morning. investors continue to keep an eye to energy prices. wti and brent both up over a dollar now. part is down to fighting in libya which has threatened to
halt the flow of oil from the country. and a massive fire in canada. it's forced 80,000 people to flee in the canadian city of fort mcmurray. meanwhile we're also taking a look from views from jeffrey gundlach saying that negative interest rates are a form of deflation. cnbc was at the sohn investment conference in new york and caught up with the widely followed investor and asked what the thinks. a bit more on that in a bit but first we have to bring uk data on the services pmi coming in 52.3, compared to 53.7 in march. just a touch shy below a reuters
poll. overall the reading for april is the lowest since february 2013. so as mentioned, sterling off just about .1% against the dollar but we have seen it moving lower this morning against greenbacgreenback. meanwhile back to those comments we were telling you from hedge fund manager jeffrey gundlach talking about negative interest rates and exactly why he thinks they are a bad policy choice. >> it is pretty obvious they are deflation. they are a form of a tax on wealth. but also outright deflation. if you have a hundred dollars and invest in a hundred dollars and get 98 at the end of five years, that is deflation. so they're trying to fight deflation with deflation.
like putting out a fire by pouring out gasoline. not a good idea. >> however the hedge fund manager did put forth a solution to the problem. >> since they went negative in europe the dollar has weakened and the euro has strengthened with negative rates. same thing in japan. the european stock market has underperformed the u.s. since they went negative. the japanese stock market's been terrible since they went negative. one of these days they are going to realize that negative rates are a problem. but if negative rates are a problem. and positive rates are a problem, you have a problem. so the solution has to be on the fiscal side. >> any theme is helicopter money. the fed and u.s. should do some stuff to stimulate the economy. >> we're along the path and i
think helicopter money has taken on the connotation of the bernky or milton friedman dropping cash from helicopters. we're talking about paying for things not with private debt but with debt that is basically held within the central bank and is that costless? no it results in higher inflation and ultimately savers in terms of negative restaurants it is the savers that is being taxed. but somebody has to be taxed and that is the way i see it going. >> bill gross warned there would be a rude end to such a scenario. he believes politicians will find it more palatable than the alternative of awe tearty and retegs. >> the dollar index did see second day of gains but remains
down. let's bring in valentin. great to see you. here we have the dollar on a rebound here. of course that is weighing on commodity stocks to the downside. energy moving higher now. questions about the fed. where do you see the dollar going? >> well longer term we do re --. there is uncertainty about the more near term outlook. we do believe that on the back of sustained improvement in the u.s. data from here, activity data joining the constructive labor market outlook from here, all that helping the fed hike rates. for june there are some risks for the next rate hike by the fed but we do believe the policy
divergence rate will reinstate itse itself. >> yesterday we got disappointment with the adp private perayrolls. what are you expecting from non pharms? >> i think payrolls will be sufficiently strong to keep expectations of future rate hikes on the table. the way we see the dollar at the moment is too many negatives in the price at the moment. the market is pricing in less than 20% chance of a rate hike in june. which i think is a bit of a extreme view really as it stands. so presumably the dollar will be responding much more strongly to positive surprises. and by positive surprise i'd like to highlight potential indications that wage growth has picked up in april more strong than expected and with that in mind i think a more constructive
view on the dollar may be warranted going to the release tomorrow. >> that is the view for the non pharmacist. but you could argue that the fed not really the most interesting story of the last week. it's been the bank of japan. were you surprised by the market's reaction to the bank of japan disappointment? >> there was disappointment, including us. we were expecting action last week. and the disappointment was evident unwinding the shorts put in place after. down the road think policy divergence should determine a gentle up trend from here. that is we expect more easing from the boj. in terms of timing while inherently uncertain, we do think that more policy easing may come ahead of the july elections for the upper house of the diet. preceded by more fiscal stimulus in may. if all of that is seen as
supportive for the japanese assets that may encourage foreign investors to do stuff. and going forward we do believe that should underpin the dollar-yen. >> in what form? the move into negative interest rates? more asset purchases? more creative easing? >> creative already. our preferred option would be for further cuts into negative territory, i guess obviously in contrast to what the previous speakers were mentioned but we cannot exclude asset purchases as well. >> i just want to get your view on sterling though. just a few minutes ago we did get services pmi for april. disappointed compared to forecasts but also the lowest since february 2013. when you look at the weakness in
the pound do you think it's more down to data disappointment like this morning or simply about brexit. >> the combination really. but the dominate theme is really brexit. last week we did see polls indicating that the stay in vote is in the lead. most recent polls were actually suggesting the opposite. and if anything one risk surrounding all of that. we have elections for a new mayor in london today. and may be the end of the honeymoon between johnston and cameron. they are trying to support their candidate but really tomorrow things are back to square one. and i think that the brexit risk should not be underestimated. we have long to go until the actual vote so things could still go either way. our central view is still that brexit will be avoided. that is why we are bullish. that set. the pound, we want to be cautious on the bound. weaker data doesn't help the
pound at the moment. it just increases the chance --. that is prudent to be cautious on the pound more near term. >> thank you. valentin marinov. thanks for joining us. shifting focus to brazil. rousseff closer to impeachment. standing trial for breaking budget laws. a committee is expected to overwhelmingly approve the motion in a vote tomorrow and send the case to the full chamber who will then make the final decision on whether to try rousseff next week. and tenure as prime minister of turkey is set to come to end. officials speaking to reuters say he'll be replaced in the coming weeks.
following escalating tensions between the prime minister and erdogan trying to replace the prime ministership with an executive presidency. and there's one. donald trump the seoul ole rema republican candidate. and let's go live to tracie potts. where does he go from here? >> from here his biggest challenge is uniting this fractured republican party. they had a slug fest and started out with 17 candidates and finally down to one can donald trump the so called last man standing. but not everyone is behind him. yes he's got half a dozen key
republicans including the top senate leader on capitol hill endorsing him but they have to work to bring this party together. there are others, governors. former presidents. both former presidents bush who have had they are not going to weigh in on this at all. and the man who appears to be the presumptive republican nominee. donald trump says he's not really worried about that. he says some people's endorsements he doesn't want or need. he says he will be able to brick the party together. and he's resting on the fact that he has brought together a record millions of people in the primaries. he thinks he can go after hillary clinton in this race in the fall. now, it is not a done deal for clinton. he's way ahead in the delegate count. bernie sanders is still out there campaigning. in fact he just opened a kentucky office. they are voting mid month but hillary clinton has her sights set on donald trump and she's calling him negative,
aggressive. bullying. she says he's a loose canon and loose cannons tend to misfire. so gives you a sense what we may be hearing many t the coming months into november. >> on the point of hillary clinton, do we have any indications what the polls are telling you how a national contest is shaping up between donald trump and hillary clinton if they are the nominees? >> right now in most of the major polls and recent polls she's up by double digits. donald trump will cite other polls that say that he is beating her. but most of the polls not only are showing her beating donald trump but also showing huge negative numbers for trump even though he's got millions of people voting for him and what that tends to say about the republican party is that even though certain groups, women and other groups, latinos may not like donald trump in terms of
favorability, hasn't stop millions of people from voting him. >> excellent stuff tracie. thank you so much for joining us. tracie potts from washington. and you want to stay tuned here to cnbc because donald trump will be on "squawk box" at 7:15 a.m. eastern. plus, here an "street signs" as alibaba gets set to reveal. tune in to find out if they are having success. we'll discuss coming up on "street signs."
helped 20th century fox in the first quarter. >> fox shares rising after the company reported better than expected revenue. 21st century fox reporting revenue growth of about 6% to $7.23 billion, earnings coming in right in line with expectations at 47 cents per share. it was the company's cable tv business that drove results higher than expected. higher affiliate as well as higher advertising revenue across domestic and international channels. the studio benefits from the --. but the studio's revenue came in short of expectations. how though the bottom line was stronger than anticipated. companies earnings release the demonstrated value of our brands and content will drive business forward in both the existing and evolving landscape references challenges and opportunities of digital distribution. back to you. >> and there was a tasty set of
earnings from kraft heinz with shares up nearly 6% in after hours trade. the company posted better than expected profit of 73 cents. and that was thanks in part for strong demand for its ketchup and string cheese products. making me hungry now here. whole foods trading higher after the bell. earnings beat of 44 cents a share on revenue of 3.7 billion dollars. however whole foods saw comparable store sales decline 3%, compared to analyst expectation of just a 2% fall. the company says it now expects to be at or below the low end of prior sales and eps ranges. fitbit tumbled after the wearable maker issues weaker than expected guidance.
josh murray has been following. >> heading in fitbit had been joid a nice run. since its february low it charged higher more than 40% as new products were well received. but that ended in the after hours after this report. first reported eps of 10 cents and street looked for 3 cents. so an easy beat there on the bottom and top. but there was also disappointment. fitbit said it sold 4.8 million devices and analysts expected close to 5 million. and guidance that q2 did beat expectations but the company is guiding for q two eps between 8 and 11 cents and that way undershoots the expectation of 26 cents. margin guidance was also underpressure and that could be in part from discounts of older products he says. he has a market perform on the stock saying the product cycle
is unclear and the competitive environment is only getting tougher. fitbit raises guidance for the year, between 2.5 and $2.6 billion. i'm josh lipton in san francisco. >> and it was a smooth ride higher after hours for shares in silicon valley out maker tesla. >> at the scene la tesla is is . --. elon musk also suggested his company will raise capital. >> is going to make sense for us to raise some amount of money.
some combination of equity and debt. and make sure the company has a good buffer of cash on hand. >> not everyone though is a believer in tesla at the sohn conference yesterday jim chanos said he's shorting the auto maker. >> one of our historical sign posts of a company in trouble is when numbers of senior people leave. over a short period of time. tesla fits that bill. we've got a chart, i guess we're going to to have to update it this afternoon, of senior executives leaving tesla. it is a flood in the past four years. that is not a good sign. this as company that can't forecast one quarter out. and everybody is confident still what they are going to make in 200 20023 or 2025.
i don't think they can do it. >> shares up in recent week. and broader markets habit half a percent of gains. also keep an eye on the u.s. dollar. two days in a row of strength, of course bucking that recent trend of dollar weakness and at the moment looking like another day of u.s. dollar strength. on that note nancy back to you. >> thanks for that one wilfred. tesla also weighing in on alibaba yesterday. alibaba reports before the bell today. and noted investor jim chanos reported he is still --. saying the country is still quote, the gift that keeps on gives for the short side. he questions some of alibaba's financials. >> we are short it.
for accounting reasons. we have questions on the metrics and the cash flow. and the biggest side of the business, the fulfillment is unconsolidated on their financial statements. i suspect the business is unprofitable and that they are funding it from the cash flows from the parent. so therefore there are no real free cash flows a t alibaba. >> here to take a look is jian shi. first what's your reaction to jim chanos telling cnbc he has concerns over alibaba. do you think those concerns are warranted? >> i think certainly he raised some interesting questions. but i think when we look at company's fundamentals is -- is
most important -- company in china. and talking to customers and chinese consumers the company is doing really well and pulling forward china's e-commerce growth. so i still believe in the stock quite strongly. >> on that growth for consumers specifically. investors will zone in on something today. what are you expecting on that something? >> we are not expecting a big surprise there because backn march the management announced the d -- hit. [ inaudible ] which ended in march. and that announcement basically implicate that for the march quarter the gmb will be at least $100 billion and the announcement was only ten days before the end of the quarter. so we are not expecting a big
surprise. >> so what does this say about the overall consumer spending, behavior in china because often alibaba results are used as a pulse in terms of the consumer. >> definitely. and the consumer growth. the retail growth in china is still quite strong. around 10, 11%. but in the most recent quarter. in the first quarter of this year, china online retail sales went up 22% according to the national bureau of statistics and we're expecting to see alibaba growth to be roughly in the low 20s. given that the company is already 80% of the e-commerce activities in china i think that is a reasonable number to expect. >> so given that strong position they already have it raises the question where do you grow from here? how is the growth into second
tier cityies going. >> it is one of the main drivers going forward. two things helping. is one, more rural consumers are using smart phones to access internet so the internet penetration is still going up in the rural areas. and another thing is that logistics services network is expanding in the rural areas and are covering more areas. so the ecommerce can expand to those remote regions and that is another boost to alibaba's effort in terms of rural expansion. >> how do you view alibaba's activities outside of its traditional e-commerce function? a lot of affiliates are expanding into the fin tech. just one area, payments and financial raise around 50 billion valuation in that neighborhood, i should say. is this important to the bottom line over at the alibaba parent company? >> in the short-term probably we're not going to see much of
an impact. but going forward i think this is part of alibaba's eco system, where basically you have the e-commerce. you have preferable services related to e-commerce. and as these emerging segments develop they can become future drivers of alibaba. >> and your view on other companies, competitors, others in the china tech space. what is your favorite at this moment? >> currently we are still favoring the larger internet company, including ten sen. and. --. and another view of how european markets are trading
good morning. market alert. crude prices jumping on a huge wild fire near canadian oil sands and fighting in libya. >> and tesla in the fast lane. shares getting a pop this morning. not everyone is sold on the story. we'll tell you why. >> and it's official. donald trump now the republican party's presumptive nominee for president. it is thursday may 5, 2016. "worldwide exchange" begins right now. ♪ just shoot for the stars >> good morning and welcome to