tv Fast Money CNBC May 6, 2016 5:00pm-5:31pm EDT
they're never coming back. they're never going to be, you know, what they were ten years ago. it's just not going to happen. there's a view, and it's going to be increasing discussion among politicians. i know we have to go, about this issue. you can't bring the old america back. >> you finished just in time. thank you so much. we're done on "closing bell." have a great weekend, everybody. "fast money" starts right now. "fast money" does start right now. i'm melissa lee. steve grasso, david, and guy. a curious thing is happening in the market. it's got traders flat-out frustrated. we'll tell you what it is and how you can take advantage. plus, we've got the one group of stocks that could benefit if either hillary clinton or donald trump win the presidency. and later, this is no fairy tale. how would you like to get paid to buy shares of disney at a discount?
sound too good to be true? we'll teach you how. but we started off with a reversal in stocks today. one surprising group of stocks we have not talked about in a very long time, the fang stocks, they led the way. will investors start to look to get back into growth names, guy? >> the fed's clearly on hold. that number this morning i thought was pretty lousy. a lot worse than i thought. bad news wound up to be good news. will people get back in? i thought the facebook quarter was outstanding. if you look the way the stock has traded since then, it hasn't given a lot back. i think facebook is great. amazon is back to doing things the right way. very 2015 quarter, the last one that we saw. google, hard to say right now. google finds itself in an awkward position. i think netflix, although selling off from an all-time high, i think there's tremendous value there. i get this competition coming but it's not here yet. out of the four of them, if you
ask me where the most beta is, it's netflix. >> sold to you. i've said this for a while. i've been wrong for a bit but now it seems to be becoming the case. competition matters. they're paying for these properties. i'm indifferent whether i watch a show i like whether i'm watching on netflix or amazon. netflix is by far the sell of those names. i guess i would have to be involved in facebook. but i think you have the low growth environment out there. that's what we're seeing with the economic numbers. so that to me is why these are back in vogue. but i would rather do it as a pair. >> knowing or at least believing that the fed could be on the sidelines, possibly for the rest of the year, does that lay the perfect groundwork for a flight to these growth names? >> it absolutely does. there's other reasons why they rallied today. look at the retail space and the lis location based on jcpenney, the concern about earnings next week.
amazon obviously is something people gravitate toward. facebook was a gift at 85 bucks. this is a b stock. it's amazing the way it's trading. google, i think long term, is a play you want to own. i agree with guy, i think netflix is a very good company. they've really nailed it from the u.s. penetration perspective. and they're going after the international market. i think they're going to do very well. >> the one thing i would be nervous about is netflix. i think that's problematic, too much competition there. i was a big fan of the international growth but it's not the time period for them. the biggest thing is why do they sell the utilities. that for me is -- are people worried about their capital? we know they're not raising. are people worried about their capital? is it not buying growth? is it worried about your capital now? >> didn't we see -- i know we're making a big deal about the interday moves. we did see a sell-off in the utilities, and they did -- money went into information technology. they went into industrials.
they went into consumer discretionary. >> right. you're right. it is a one-day event. my fear, though, is if we know that rates are going to be low for an extended period of time, you would think that you would have that knee-jerk reaction. you would immediately have seen utilities pop. we did not see that. to me i think people are worried about a cataclysmic sell-off now versus a trading range. >> when i saw the jobs for this morning, i thought immediately, whoa, feds on the sidelines for a long time. >> we talked about that last night at the top of the show. we started this show with the bad news being good news. initially you saw the big sell-off. steve was just talking about it, bad news is in fact good news. the fed, there's no way in my opinion they do anything in june. we can argue whether or not they should. going forward, i don't think they'll do anything until post-election, which puts us into december. fed on the sideline should be
good. now you're talking about an s&p that is very rich in -- >> we're talking about an s&p that was rejuvenated last year when we have a handful of names that are responsible for either the uptick in the -- >> if we go to new highs, i agree with that. >> i don't think the market rallied because all of a sudden we figured out the fed was going to be on hold. they said the fed is still on course for two rate hikes and the u.s. dollar/japanese yen rallied. that was your risk on signal. that had nothing to do with anything else. the market was down all day until dudley spoke. >> it is correlation good news? everybody thinks u.s. dollar, japanese yen going up is good. ultimately it will be bad. but for today it was good in the market. >> for the markets, for this market environment, for whatever reason you believe the markets rallied today, what do you buy? >> absolutely stay with the gold
trade. off the recent high, but i still think they're trading really well. i know tlt sold off today a little bit. i'm steadfast in my belief interest rates on the back end of the curve are staying down. >> do you stick with utilities? >> i think you have to stick with utilities. but i think another way of looking at it, you would say, what would you buy, what would you sell as well. i would sell energy names. i believe energy has ticked up. based on the canadian fires. i don't believe that -- i think that's a transitory event. not impactful enough. i think you'll see it reverse next week. >> i do agree with him. energy names, i think the metals and mining stocks will roll over. i think retail will roll over into next week. buy retail the end of next week. >> i've got two things. stay gold, pony boy, just like guy. stay gold. >> oh, come on! >> well done.
>> we're at about a fifth grade reading level here. the dollar today, look at uup. the fact that the dollar didn't weaken on the idea that the fed was out of the picture for a while to me is very positive for the dollar. the dollar going higher. >> even with the move -- >> well, i was going to ask you a question. i know this is a half hour show. can you name three actors or actresses in the -- >> i have no idea. >> diane lane. i've got to tell you something, she rocked it. of course, she had tom cruise -- >> i think b.k. was in that movie. >> the index remains at a very curious level. grasso will mosey on over to the board. >> let's do this. we're talking about levels here. where you should worry about the trading range. let's just assume that the trading range is still here, because it's been here for what
seems like forever. let's look at it through the prism of the recent low. 1810. your recent high, 2111. so if you draw -- everyone knows i like to draw my levels. if you draw that, using those levels, in mind, you come up with basically your bounce level. 1960. down to 1925. that seems to me in this world cataclysmic. let's just keep those in mind, put it on a bench, put it in the rear-view mirror for now. what's the big level? this one's not working. it's 2043. that one's not working. flat on year. that's the most important level. that was the biggest level today. that's what you want to keep in focus. if the market holds, your 2043 level, then all bets are still on. if it breaks down, 200-day moving average. 2012. if it breaks down, cataclysmic. i think we do revisit these
levels. i think we revisit this level. so we've looked embarrassed because we all thought this was going to break down from that point. we rallied aggressively up. but we did have a ceiling put on us. so trading range still sticks. most important level, 2043. >> you think we will revisit the 1810 level? >> i think if we get another sell-off next week, because i do believe the correlation is oil, s&p, if we see oil break, this breaks, the market breaks, and people don't have the stomach for another break. >> do you think we've seen the lows for the year? >> i don't necessarily buy that. i wouldn't use technicals in this scenario to say the market is going to sell off. it's going to take something for the market to sell off. i can't tell you what that is, but it would take an event. i look at this market and say people got burned on the shorts. you're not going to see them come back anytime soon. that's going to be a way. i don't really believe that you're going to get the sentiment so negative that it
will drive things lower unless there's some sort of event. >> why can't it just be a strong dollar again. like grasso is talking about. we've seen the oil market roll over this week. we saw the dollar firm up. why couldn't it just be the same thing that we had -- >> i don't think it takes us down that low. i don't think it's cat a clacly. is the market priced at a level you could see a pullback? no doubt about it. >> will we move to the fear of another fed hike? >> what if the dollar rises when the fed's not even hiking? which it did today. that's my point. that is a whole new bag of worms that we've got to deal with. >> bag of wormgs? >> is it bag of worms? >> bag of something. bag of glass. something. >> something's holding some bag somewhere. >> good point by b.k. >> apple shares hitting their lowest level in two years. you might want to hear what one
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let's talk defense stocks kicking off the top trades tonight. check out the moves in these names this year. both outperforming northrup up 13%, lockheed martin up 11%. defense stocks the best defense? >> yes. we have been right about this for a long time. it was '08 when the first obama administration was coming in. these stocks were getting hammered. we talked about how folks, you make a mistake if you're selling these names, defense spending is going to continue to rise regardless of who is in office. what do you do? you absolutely stay with these names at the end of the election. what happens after that? i don't know, we'll have the conversation in november. you get a dividend and i think the stocks go up. >> check the tapes, guy has been
with it. i agree with everything you're saying. no matter who wins the presidency, the likelihood of more defense spending, the world's not getting any safer, more defense spending is coming. >> no one wants to be responsible for making that cut. god forbid something does happen. they all talk a good game but it never works out. >> biotech stocks getting crushed today. check out one of the culprits, the big one, down a staggering 40%. actually hitting a 14-year low, after disappointing earnings and cutting guidance. other pharma names getting hit. these are also large hedge fund holdings. >> it wasn't just specialty pharma that got hit, it was really the top holdings in the hedge fund world. if you look at the pfizers, amgens, everything got smoked. it was just a de-risking across the board. if you go to the bottom tranche of that, those are the names that are actually fine in the
morning. there really wasn't any movement. they were flattish on the day, if not up, which suggested they were probably short. so i look at the space and say, we are at a level right now where there's been a tremendous amount of de-risking. the hedge funds are taking stuff off. look at large cap biotechs only. small names, very small cap names that had a year or less in cash. walk away from or you can basically stand there and sell them short with both. >> what will get investors to take a look at the multiples in the pipelines and start investing on fundamentals. you did make the case, actually, a month ago? >> but there needs to be a big acquisition. >> will it remove the fear about drug pricing? >> allergen getting the -- >> we still don't know how the valuation -- >> these were valued on a different pricing mechanism. >> not necessarily. >> well, they were.
>> trading ten times earnings, right? forward earnings. growing at 20 -- >> how do you know what the forward earnings are? >> what is metivation worth now? >> that's a different story. that's a different game. that's a name that i probably wouldn't buy. but you look at the gileads of the world, whether or not they can get on another business. i like that story long term. allergen, i like that story long term. there are stocks you can look at and say, management is clean as heck. they get incredible pipelines. >> do you buy? >> do various drugs make people stop talking? >> aw! >> so harsh. >> let's move on. apple falling again today, hitting the lowest level. after a disappointing earnings report. the stock is down nearly 17%.
>> i'm long. i got longer, actually, based on the fact it's been the most oversold in ten years or so. you look back, the august level was the one i was concerned with. the market overshot that level. traded down. the level always at 92. i think you've seen the worst. now, if the market sells off, apple's going to test that little bit of trading range. it could get gappy. another 7 bucks or so? let's call it 85 to 92. that's where i'll still be adding stock because i do believe eventually it will pop. all bets are off. if the iphone 7 is a bomb. then all bets are off. >> you know, what's the thing you call lower lows, lower highs, what's going on here? >> in 12 minutes, there's going to be a little show called options actions. i apologize, it's a huge show. talking about everything that's talking apple, talking about for
quite some time. as has brian kelly to my right. but bears have been talking about that when it ramped up to 132. >> so now we're within, what, 2% or 3% of the s&p all-time high. now apple's down 30-ish percent from the all-time high over that period of time? something's askew. i don't know what it is. but something is askew. >> the last time apple made lower lows and rallied was in august. there's enough to claim victory on both sides. >> if this thing breaks, if apple breaks 92, it's going lower. i'm telling you that right now. >> what if trump becomes president? just from the standpoint of the chinese sort of concerns, right? >> but that's a whole market story. that's not an apple story. >> i think it's an apple story. they get 90% of their cash overseas. >> but to his point, that apple is in danger. he's saying that it's not -- >> whoa, whoa. your point is it's in danger. but if he winds up being more
accommodative on the tax side, he's able to bring that cash back. >> so it goes both ways on that. >> he needs virtual reality. he needs artificial intelligence. >> and then he's on this network saying india is the next great place. now they're going to bring cash back here? >> india, it's ridiculous to think the margins are going to be as good in india. >> that's true. >> apple, by the way, does not have artificial intelligence. they don't have a major artificial intelligence anything. >> i got a wonderful idea how they can put the cash to work. there's a show called "fast money." this ecould sponsor "fast money," think about that. apple computer. it's hot. i'd even get onboard. >> i might upgrade. >> i might upgrade my machine. >> still ahead, retail's moment
of truth next week. some of the biggest names get set to report. there is one name grabbing a whole lot of attention. in the meantime, here's what else is coming up on fast. >> here's what apple shares did this week. and we'll tell you why they're just pennies away from doing something really bad. plus, it's derby time. >> i got the horse ride here, his name is paul revere, can do, can do -- >> and we've got four long shot stocks that can do. the names when "fast money" returns.
live shock at churchill downs, where the running of the kentucky derby will take place. dom chu, a sure thing in his own right, is breaking down at cnbc headquarters. dom. >> well, i am hardly a sure bet, melissa. but right now, a lot of money for the kentucky derby is being focused on the number 13 horse, because he is one considered as close to that sure bet as there is. at least right now. his name is nyquist, the early favorite sitting with 3-1 odds of a win. he's never lost a race, 7-0 record. his trainer, jockey and owner, all the same ones behind 2012 triple crown hopeful, i'll have another, who you may remember won a derby and preakness before withdrawing due to injury. now that leicester city won in soccer with 5,000-1 odds, let's look at the long shots for the derby.
if the number one horse right now is trojan nation, he's got 50-1 odds. number seven, oscar nominated is 50-1 as well. number eight, lanny. and number 12 tom's ready, 30-1. that's if those horses actually run the race. and remember, they're long shots for a reason. nobody expected them to do anything spectacular. remember, with these odds, they will shift all the way until post time. even if you aren't a racing fan, it's exciting to watch. the horses are busy prepping for the big day tomorrow, trial runs, and of course, be sure to tune in tomorrow, coverage starts at noon eastern on nbc sports network. it shifts to nbc itself at 4:00 p.m. eastern time. and the 142nd kentucky derby post time approximately 6:34 post time. >> let's turn to our own jockeys
for the stocks that carry long odds for gains. long shot stocks. >> could there be a bigger long shot than twitter? down 37%. i'm still long. and i'm suffering. they should go head-to-head with instagram and youtube. they have a product that they can't seem to monetize the proper way. i still think there is hope, however fleeting, however long shot it is. >> in spirit of the biotech, allergen. it's not because it's a long shot, because i hope it works. because i know it's going to work and there's a lot of negative sentiment in the space. i look at brent saunders, number one ceo in the space. hands down the best. they get an incredible pipeline. i'd be a buyer here. >> by the way, highest odds, we're saying long shot stocks. >> yeah. >> so for me, it's blackberry. a stock that i've been suffering with for a long time. >> blackberry? >> yeah. they have a lot of things going for them.
hi there. live at the nasdaq market place. a dreary times square. the guys are getting ready behind me. while they're doing that, here's what's coming up on the big show. >> shop till you drop! >> well, they may have just dropped, because retailers are rolling over. and it's about to get a lot worse. plus -- if you're looking to protect your portfolio, you might need to do more than that. thankfully we have the ultimate portfolio protection. and -- how would you like to get paid to buy shares of disney? at a discount. it ain