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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  May 10, 2016 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT

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dr. jay, are you buying it? >> i also think it will be great for the olympics. great for the election to get any edge they can get. but for olympics, drinking an america, good. >> and america. anyway. thau thank you, jane. time now for "fast money." "fast money" starts right now. i'm melissa lee. your traders on the desk are pete and steve and dan and guy. a top technician said a major shift occurred today in the market. it could signal the next hot trade. we will tell you what it is and how you can get in. plus, with the markets moving higher today, three dow stocks hit all-time highs. the names and what they have at in common at the bottom of the hour. why some traders are betting for pretty big moves. first, we start off with a story of the hour. shares of walt disney falling 6%
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after the biggest media company posted its first earnings miss in five years. the conference call has just started. this is crucial, because remember, people want to know what's going on at espn. what can we expect, julia? what was behind this miss? >> there are a couple of key issues that investors will be really interested to hear more about on disney's earnings call. just starting now. first, bob iger's outlook for the media network business and espn in particular. everyone's going to be really curious to hear what he said about cord cutting, stabilizing or not and what the potential is for advertising as well as digital revenue. we're also looking for iger to talk about the footnote in the release. they're taking a a charge in connection with the discontinuation of self-published video console games. a third thing we're going to be listening for, any insight into disney's overseas parks
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business. disney's domestic parks have been performing well. disney shanghai is launching in about a month. any insight into the impact there. disney shares are trading down. it looks like they're now down about 6.5%. as this is the first time in years that disney's earnings per share have fallen short of wall street estimates. disney, of course, has never provided guidance, but both the top and bottom line growth fell short of those wall street analysts' projections. ajust eps up 11%. though the numbers are growing, they did come lower than wall street analysts had been projecting. we'll be listening into the call and be back with the headlines. >> thank you very much, julia boorstin. disney shares below a hundred bucks a share. remember, last summer, it was the conference call that really took the stock down. this is going to be critical what happens in the next hour. >> 121 that day. ever since it only revis ted
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once. it's been basically going sideways or lower since. how do you trade disney at this level? it's basically comprised of four companies, but still at the xoer media company. not disastrous, but it was a miss. you have to ask yourself, what's the right valuation for disney in this environment? they still deserve a premium valuation, in my opinion, better than cbs, better than viacom. the right valuation is about a 16 multiple. slap 6 1/4 earnings on that, which is what they're due to earn and you have a hundred-dollar stock. i think bare value is $100 for disney. >> you're a shareholder. >> everyone was concerned when guy talked about the $120 level. everyone's concerned about the skinny bundle and espn. cable numbers actually look good. if you look at cable numbers, those were good. broadcast numbers were lower. broadcasts, we're talking hundreds of millions. cable numbers we're talking about billions. i want to hear a lot more about espn. i want to hear a lot more about
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parks. and a lot more about media. i'm not understanding what the reaction is. >> double-digit earnings growth. i know they missed the number, and the first time they missed in forever. but their growth is still there. to me, when we still look at a company that has growth and it's as big and old always disney and they have double digit earnings growth, and year over year, i think this is an opportunity. to guy's point, he's talking about is it fair around a hundred dollars. it probably is fair. this is where i chose to get in last time. went a little bit lower. i still like this name. i own it presently. i would add to it today. >> the only problem is that growth, you're talking about decelerating. high single digits this year and next year on the eps basis. when you do the back of the envelope type of numbers, look at time warner and cbs, they just put up numbers last week. they were pretty good. they traded 14 times. tonight disney traded at 18 times. if you're going to have this missed execution, here's a
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company who could have four cents. >> why the conference call so far? >> i agree. but what i'm saying is, yeah, it may find support at a hundred dollars. >> i agree with you, it's troublesome they couldn't find the 4 cents. it's troublesome they missed. when you look at the pipeline of the movies, there are things that don't filter into that. i totally hear you when the market and the investors have spoken. the stock is down. this is terrible. >> i think people forget that things like this can become broken. apple, a universal bullish -- >> i don't know if you can say that -- >> this is a thing that, there's universal bullishness on august 4th last year. and all of a sudden it hit like a mack truck. if you look at the chart, at what's happened since early august, it's made a series of higher highs and lores. to think this is going to turn itself around -- >> i don't think you can compare a hardware company with a --
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>> i'm not comparing -- >> sentiment, i hear what you're saying. from a sentiment standpoint, i don't know if you can compare the two. this one was actually overbought going into earnings, and things can either unwind or come in -- >> i want to go back to what the news is on the broader market. huge advances across the board. we have many dow components hit all-time highs. the biggest volume day of the year. >> we saw -- remember the day starbucks reported, microsoft, ibm, apple. what did it mean for the broader market? absolutely nothing. the s&p has looked past every single piece of potentially bad news and ratcheted forward. can the s&p trade lower tomorrow? perhaps. but this is not the reason to sell the broader market in my opinion. going back to disney, it comes down to this, do they deserve a premium multiple over cbs? i say yes. is 16 the right number? i don't know if it's the right number. >> i say yes, too. because of the studio. when we look at the studio and
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look at the success they've had, i think that's something they can hang their hat on. and i think that continues. with espn, we'll know on the conference call. it's important to look at the fact that this stock like ibm had a 15% run in the last three months to where it is today and now pulled back 6%. the names that have run into these earnings and skyrocketed in, they're the names that seem to be able to not hold, unless they beat in a big way which they obviously missed tonight. i'm long. right around here. this will probably be a long-term hold for me and i will probably add tomorrow. >> 86 is the recent low. you know my three-day rule. i'm going to wait and see where this thing shakes out. i think everybody's talking about the level par $100. that's going to be a major stick point. if the market performs the next couple days, this one hangs around par, i'll buy it above par. >> comparisons to apple because that's what you believe or is that a cautionary possible tale to heed? >> i think the thing about apple
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is that every leg lower there were defenders all over the place. it kept on going lower. the point that i'm making about disney, it's not too different when you see the stock over the last year. my point about disney, a sentiment thing. when you have secular shifts that are going on that don't turn on dime, that don't turn in a quarter or two, that's probably what you're going to hear from iger. if he can say this is going to start to see better comparisons, then they're going to buy the stock. >> then who is the next ceo? >> he is. >> exactly. right. in addition to whatever problems the company may have. >> i do think he is the next own-i know that sounds ridiculous. i don't think he's going anywhere. he can extend it as long as he wants. i think we'll have this next year, two years from now, bob iger still in that seat. >> the best day for the dow since march the 11th. the 10-year treasury barely moved. let's get answers from dan.
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thanks a lot for joining us. always great to see you. >> thanks for having me on. >> when you see these asset classes not move as they should move, does that give you pause? >> i think there's a number of factors driving it. if you look at the payroll data that came out on friday, it was weaker than the market was expecting. that allows the fed to continue to be on a slow and deliberate type pace and wait for more confirmation that the economy is starting to pick up. in that type of environment, you would expect the feds to be relatively slow and deliberate. ultimately 10-year yields probably hang in there at the levels we see right now. if you take another step into consideration, look where global bond yields are. look at germany, 10-year yield in that market are about 12 basis points. look at 10-year jgbs, you know, the u.s. still looks pretty attractive to global investors.
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>> that's automatically going to be the anchor for u.s. bond yields? so i'm curious, obviously you're not going to necessarily say the stock market is overvalued, but does this tell you perhaps that this is free money induced rise in stocks? because we're not seeing the expected move in the bond market. >> i think we've been in this cycle where you get relatively weaker economic data that comes out. it allows the fed to be more dovish in terms of, you know, the speak that comes from the fed. ultimately what ends up happening is the market ends up showing that risky assets, end up rallying. we see that in high yield and investment grade credit, commodities as well as the equity market. what ends up happening is financial conditions ultimately ease, given the rally in those markets. that gives the fed some ability to start talking a little bit more hawk ir. then we see this cycle unwind. we haven't got to a point we've
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exceeded -- achieved the escape velocity to get out of this cycle that we've been in. >> greg, one of the negative yields, $8 trillion or so in global yield, global bonds that are negative yields. what does that mean? what are the ramifications of that? >> it causes distortions in the market at the end of the day, when you think about -- it really harms savers. clearly it's an environment where you're not being paid to save. you're actually being punished for being a saver. there's an end in terms of the value that you get from having negative rates. it clearly has some detrimental impact when it comes to the banking sector. it's still very early to tell whether or not there's any real benefit in terms of stimulating growth when it comes to having negative yields. i think the jury's still out. >> greg, we're going to leave it there. thank you for joining us. great to see you. >> thank you very much. >> it's interesting, basically he was talking about what guy
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has been expounding to here on the desk, and that is rates will remain much lower than a lot of people think for much longer. >> they don't go anywhere. to me, that's the one thing that sticks out. facebook making new highs, risky assets in general, sectors that got pounded last year because of fears in systemic risk. but the fact that the yield in the 10-year is stuck at 175, and the 2-year yield is where it is, it tells you there is so much risk right now. buy things amazon, facebook, at all-time highs, at some point the chickens are going to come home to roost. >> so that means essentially we're never going to see that -- not never, but we're hardly going to see the reaction we would normally see, and that is a sell-off in the bond market, a sell-off in gold and the safeties in assets. >> maybe. you know, time will tell. i think the reality is, we talk about volatility on this desk all the time, right?
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we try to pound the table to help people out, to protect them to the down side. to dan's point, if we got a multipercentage sell-off, 4%, 6%, 8%, i think the people who are in their stocks would be able to have that protection in place right now as low as it is. so it gives you the opportunity to ride the facebook or amazon or apple, whatever the name might be, that you think that you want to continue to hold. that's what i've been doing all year long, whenever the volatilities have gotten low, it gives me a chance to protect. i think you've got to protect positions and portfolios. be sure to tune in to "squawk box" tomorrow with a very big interview with jamie dimon, tomorrow morning 8:40 a.m. eastern time. amazon, joining the 1,000 price target club. if history is any indication, it could be the kiss of death. we'll explain. blue chips are on fire. we'll tell you the three dow stocks hitting fresh new all-time highs today. and one thing they have in common. look at shares of disney. they are tanking in the
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after-hours session. all session lows are down by 5.7%. we'll hear from the ceo bob iger on the quarter and the espn subscriber numbers when "fast money" returns. images, videos, social updates. we call it dark data. 80% is invisible to most businesses. the ibm cloud has tools that can help see dark data and put it to work. hello, my name is watson. working with watson in the ibm cloud, we can help an energy company predict pipeline corrosion. and help a start-up to use social data to predict market trends. now businesses can get more out of their data. that's what the ibm cloud is built for. now businesses can get more out of their data. you wouldn't order szechuan without checking the spice level. it really opens the passages. waiter. water. so why would you invest without checking brokercheck? check your broker with brokercheck.
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welcome back to fast money quoeg. earnings alert with mary thompson. >> more than 7% after-hours, the video game maker pushing a big quarterly beat. as of the end of march, they sold more than 14 million copies of "star wars" games to retailers, and the sequel on the way. monthly active users increased by 30% for the madden nfl modem game from a year ago. shares are essentially flat year-to-date. and of course, up in the after-hours session. melissa, back to you. >> thank you very much, mary thompson. so we had disney. which actually made the "star wars" movie. now we have electronic arts, which is making a video game based on st"star wars." >> these are things that have to make the migration over to digital. i don't know how many of them
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can. they all want to have a per-month payment plan. and i don't know who's going to pay for that. there's a lot left to be written. but i guess a lot of it is branding. if you want to go more of a madden, more of a sports, i guess that's your e.a. and the digital presence is activision. they bought king. i misspoke earlier this afternoon. i would say take two is probably where you should be. call of duty. >> moving on to amazon. top trade tonight. bernstein slapping a $1,000 price target on the stock, 47% increase from today's close. history says that may not be such a great thing. take a look at qualcomm. back in december of 1999, after they gained 2,690% in the past year, and we should note, this chart is unsplit adjusted, the target to $1,000. qualcomm gained for another four days but has yet to revisit that
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$1,000 area. more recently, there's the example of apple. april 2nd, 2012, a $1$2012, a $e target placed on the stock. nearly two years later, in june of 2014, apple announced 7 for 1 stock split. at 1,001 target would be about 143. where is apple trading right now? 93 bucks. >> i'm looking at amazon. at $1,000, it doesn't seem as crazy as the other ones seem. >> really? >> only because of the fact -- and i don't own it, i wish i owned it. when you look at all the different drivers that they've got now, now they want to compete on the youtube level. they've already got the web services which grew 64% year over year. they are the leader right now in terms of the cloud. the other thing pointed out by
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bernstein, they expect to see the margin expansion to accelerate over the next couple of years. everything seems to be working right now for jeff. dan i'm sure has things he can shoot across on this, but so far this analyst has been very, very accurate. the lead analyst in the field. >> but your point they have so many different levers, look at apple, it's really price. valuation, very precise metrics that you can actually look and quantify apple. you really can't do that. when jeff wants to really pull the levers, he could pull the levers and the stock screams higher. >> dan, jump in here. >> i've been wait. >> where's the bearish part? >> the stock is a new all-time high today. it looks beautiful. i look at analysts' ratings, five holds, no sells. so when you have this combination of universal bullish sentiment on the sell side, you have it amongst big investors. some of these guys keep talking about these are take, take, take. when you think about aws, talk
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about margin expansion over the years, the pie is getting bigger. when i think about microsoft and google nipping at their heels, they'll take a page out of amazon's playbook. i think it's going to be a race to the bottom on pricing here. ultimately you're talking about a business that's 10% of their sales of the the rest 6 their business -- >> but the -- the last time we debated this it was the day of earnings. the stock was trading at 666 basically. up 7% from there. i don't want to throw you in the bucket alone. >> go ahead, do it. i want to hear it. >> i'm not talking about you alone. you're going in the bucket. you're just going with tim. the point is, it was debated that it was in the price. and this is an example of how it's never in the price, actually in the price. so in a reality, the stock's up 7%. >> do you remember that qualcomm chart that we just saw? i have a memory. talk about buckets, that was going to hell in a bucket. you know what i mean?
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when amazon trades down $200, are you going to claim victory? >> no. but that's not my point. >> yes, it is the point. >> you know what, if you want to be like that and gameify this thing -- >> no, no, people are watching this. >> you've done the work. you've gotten people involved in amazon 7% ago. >> no, no, no. i've been bullish on amazon. that's a fact. >> where do you stand here, guy? >> my problem with amazon was this. two quarters ago they reported very 2014 amazon-like quarter. left a lot of people, including myself, scratching their heads. remember the price action was awful. this quarter got back to what they were doing all through 2015. obviously we can't talk about it on valuation but we can talk about the believers. they can continually pull the lever. >> what are you talking about? what levers are you talking
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about? >> have you ever had an intelligent comment to say about amazon, why it was going up? >> aws. >> i understand -- >> what is not -- >> maybe that's the problem. you don't understand what i'm saying. that's why you missed 500 points on amazon. i didn't take it personally, you did. >> no -- >> stop getting personal because you lose on that one, too. >> right. okay. >> finish your thought. then we'll go to break. >> 3.7%, when i talk about levers to pull, when they can turn operating margins that quickly, that says something. now, next quarter they can come back and disappoint in operating margins. when you get to this price level, this is where volatility kicks in. now you start to play in the deep end of the pool in terms of what comes out next quarter. >> the venture capitalist was unbelievable. >> $3 trillion. >> $2 trillion. >> anyway, gas tanked today.
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the report this week. are we going to see a massive retail record history? in the meantime, here's what else is coming up on fast. >> momentum stocks have been surging. but if you missed the move, we've got the stocks that you can still buy. plus, three dow stocks just hit all-time highs today. we'll tell you the names and what they all have in common, when "fast money" returns.
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let's check on the
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after-hour session. missing estimates for the last quarter and giving weak guidance for the current quarter and full year. look at the stock, down almost 30%. behind the disappointing guidance, the firm's recent acquisition of misfit said it will be diluted to the year. headwinds seen which many as competition for newer entrance into the space like the apple watch. again, off almost 30%. tough year for that stock. back to you, melissa. >> mary thompson, thanks so much. pete, does this tell us -- >> i don't think -- i would say they're absolutely struggling. they've got competition in the space now. unfortunately for them, it reminds me of gap, quarter now after quarter where you just can't compete. and because of that, i think there's no reason to try to bottom fish in this name right now. >> up next, disney tanking on a massive top and bottom line
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miss. the call is now halfway through. we'll hear from ceo bob iger.
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welcome back to "fast money." best day in two months. the s&p and nasdaq joined in on the rally jumping more than 1%. all of the major indices are just off the all-time highs. in the second half of "fast money," check out shares of disney. the conference call is about halfway through. we'll hear from the ceo bob iger. huge eureka retail earnings kicks off tomorrow. we'll tell you which stock traders are expecting the biggest moves later on this hour. but first, after a rough start to the year, facebook and amazon, looks like they're finally catching a bid. is it too late to get in? let's go off the charts with ari walz. >> we are indeed seeing signs
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that momentum stocks are regaining their leadership. let's first make the case for momentum, why you could own it in a portfolio. the chart here. the momentum index relative to the s&p 500 going all the way back to the '70s. all this index does, rebalancing twice a year, simply buy stocks with the best risk adjusted return. and yes, momentum doesn't always work, but we can see through time, indeed does tend to outperform. stocks that have worked tend to be the stocks that continue to work. now, let's dig in here a little bit more of a near term view here. here's the epf. mtum, after a rough start to the year, this etf pushing back to its highs from 2015. $75 mark. we think you get the break out here. make sure you hold 72. but we think this is a very nice
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setup. we think you break out in the momentum. that makes the case for momentum stocks in general. let's look at a few of them. first, united health care. a stock already broken out to the upside. this breakout level 126, that's now going to be support. i think you can take the height of the range, $16, measure that from the breakout point. you get a level of about 142. we think it gets there. and finally, facebook. can't talk about momentum without talking about facebook. and here's what i see in the chart. after all this volatile behavior in the market, facebook, through all that, was able to hold its 200-day moving average through all of it. so, yes, a little bit near term overbought, but i think as long as you're above the 200 day, the pullback, stock continues to work. >> ari, if you're expecting a breakout in momentum, should we necessarily believe there could be a slowdown in value, or whatever the opposite index would be? >> not necessarily. actually, that's not true. momentum doesn't equal growth.
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in fact, they say the best mix is having a mix of both momentum and value. we think value continues to work as well. you want to buy momentum. >> ari wald of oppenheimer. thanks. >> i love what we're seeing out of zuckerberg. i think he continues to reinvent who they are, and the acquisitions they have done have absolutely paid off. i know there are a few out there and dan will criticize me on what happened. that's a lot of money. but they've been able to convert all of their acquisitions up to this point in amazing ways. >> you asked ari if you feel it's value versus growth. you have to believe in the brakeout in the s&p. in order for momentum stocks to continue working, you need to cross over the 2111, which is the recent high. >> i think it's also an important distinction that momentum doesn't necessarily
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equal growth. >> it is about rates. it's about where people think they can actually get a return. the stock market hasn't gone anywhere in 18 months. what's worked. last year we know what worked, home depot, a handful of stocks. we've lost a lot of those. we don't see nike going up anymore, starbucks, apple. a lot of stocks, we've lost a lot of them. have a ball, go and buy bank stocks or some of the stuff that hasn't done anything. i know you think it will come off the bottom. they're still down a whole heck of a lot. >> isn't it better than just fang stocks we're seeing a rotation into other -- >> what i see from those charts is that the breadth is getting narrower. if you think -- >> narrower than fang? that's four stocks. >> we lost a couple of those. when you think about it -- >> people are rotating out of some of those names. we have facebook still. but coming out of some of those
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four names, and moving into other parts of the marketplace, right? >> the perceived value is what we're seeing financials participate since the lows in february. that's value that i don't think will get you to a new high in the s&p. they've run out of steam for all intents and purposes in my opinion. >> i'm not comparing it to fang, but i will mention that, you know what, they raised guidance. they had a great quarter. 15 times forward earnings to me is a reasonable multiple. if you're not looking to swim in the fang pool, the names you've just mentioned are pretty interesting. >> the dow and s&p posting their best session in two months. widely held stocks at new all-time highs. breaking it down is a man who himself is always high on life, that is. dominic chu. hey, dom. >> melissa, i get to be on "fast money" with you and the crew so why wouldn't i be high on life.
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speaking of those highs, let's talk about three stocks where the air is rare. like you said, these three stocks have three things in common. they're all dow components and worth around $100 billion each. and they're all at record highs. three things. first of all you've got johnson & johnson, home depot, some investors more bullish on the spring gardening and home improvement season. the golden arches have traders who know how to overlook things. there's act least one other thing these guys have in common, melissa. they each got a dividend yield north of 2%. so that may be a part of the investing picture and thesis for these stocks. back over to you guys at the nasdaq. >> thank you very much, dom chu. of those three stocks, which one would you be inclined to put fresh money in? guy? >> i love all three. we've talked about all three. given the choice of the three, and i wish dom was there to answer me back real quick, he
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had a run. it's late in the new york stock exchange. j & j, where we could put money now, j & j. i think the consumer products business is crushing it. i think that's the most interesting of the three. >> when you look at the three stocks you gave me, if you look at -- >> which is basically not answering my question. >> i'm going to answer your question. and then go lateral. i would say mcdonald's is probably out of the three, the place i would go. still a turn-around story. how they're getting more effective, more efficient. but when you look at mcdonald's, i think they've been performing well. look at domino's, probably for years now, this stock pulled back. everything was theoretically in the price. the dinl tal platform. their strategy. now you get a chance to buy a stock that's basically 20 bucks off its recent high, or thereabouts. i would think you could probably start dipping the toe back in
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domino's. >> i'm going to go j & j. they're a drug company. they're a consumer company. they're a device company. they can lean on any one of those. you look at the cash, $38 billion in cash sitting there as well. 16 times on a forward and almost a 3%. it doesn't feel overpriced. given the fact it's a 52-week high. >> home depot is breaking out right now. about as gorgeous of a technical setup. nothing is taking the stock down over the last year, for the most part. expect probably a beat. and a positive outlook. the stock is probably going to be north of 140. >> and it's spring. >> you're planning. >> you bull much. mulch. >> i don't have any garden beds. if i had, i would mulch them. >> holds the weeds down.
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we'll hear from ceo bob iger and what the real culprit was. traders are bracing for huge moves in some of the biggest retail names out there. what has them on edge. much more "fast money" straight ahead. s up. smart devices are up. cloud is up. analytics is up. seems like everything is up except your budget. introducing comcast business enterprise solutions. with a different kind of network that delivers the bandwidth you need without the high cost. because you can't build the business of tomorrow on the network of yesterday.
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welcome back to "fast money." disney is falling in the after-hours session. julia boorstin has been monitoring that call. off the session lows. what's going on? >> well, disney ceo bob iger focused on the studio's massive success with films like "star wars," the force awakened. it's about espn and the impact of new digital tv bundles, and the potential down the road. iger wouldn't give specifics subscriber numbers for disney's channel inclusions, but he said that they are a positive for disney. >> we're also in discussions with a number of entities, some current distributors that are coming forward with new packages, and some completely new distributors. all have expressed an avid interest in having espn and our other channels included in their initial offerings. and we're very, very encouraged by the discussions last
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negotiations that we're having. >> he was faced with a question about whether or not disney's interested in taking its content direct to consumers. he said disney is, quote, blessed with brands, and products that lend themselves to that direct relationship. he said it's not always simple, because there are agreements with distributors. but iger said that the video product that disney launched in the uk has been doing very well. and they're looking for more opportunities to expand that subscription product outside of where it is right now in the uk. iger also weighed in on the shanghai park, because of startup costs it will take a while before it contributes to disney's bottom line. but they're optimistic about that park's potential and looking at other park expansion opportunities in hong kong as well as tokyo. iger saying there are no updates on the search for a successor to him. but he says he currently has no plans to extend his contract and is confident there is plenty of time for the board to find a
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successor before his contract expires in about two years. one last point here. he seemed to be referring to the stock's decline in after-hours trading, now up about 5%. he doesn't think disney should be valued on a quarterly basis, because disney's creating intellectual property that will have an impact across disney's businesses for multiple years. >> julia, quick questions here in terms of the park business. was there any sort of color on how international parks are doing in general versus u.s. parks and whether or not there is softness there? >> i know that we have seen in general more strength in the u.s. than overseas. there has been weakness at disney land paris and in hong kong. he was bullish about the potential particularly in shanghai. and i'll have to go back and look at my notes, but it sounded like they do see opportunities in asia, for things to look good. especially once that shanghai park opens this month.
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>> did you get a sense iger was getting cagey as far as the bundle? he didn't really answer them. >> i think that he said things are going well. he answered them in saying that in both dish, sling tv as well as sony view, things are a positive for disney. saying that the skinny bundles are good because they're going to pay disney for the content. he talked a lot about netflix. i felt like he was making a point of saying that the digital transformation that we're seeing happen to the media industry is going to be a good thing for disney. talking about revenue from netflix, talking about that potential to go direct to the consumer. someone asked if they're interested in buying bam, which is one of the technology over-the-top platform companies that has created the major league baseball direct-to-consumer platform. they didn't say they would buy it or buy a stake in it, but they're very bullish about the
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potential. >> julia boorstin giving us the lowdown from the disney conference call, which is still under way, by the way. guy, what do you make of disney after knowing there are no plans to extend his contract as ceo? >> we started the show with saying, how do you value the stock. what bob iger was talking about is why they deserve a premium valuation. the entire space is getting ratcheted down in terms of valuation. disney gets sucked down in that. i do think they deserve a premium valuation. disney trades around 16. what's the right number? i would submit 16 is probably about right. other people would say it's higher. some people might say lower. but $100 of -- >> he alluded to when you go to a skinny bundle, people are going to want those channels, they're going to want that content. if you get a premium in the brand overall, you'll get the premium with the skinny bundle. the other point was, you can't valuate -- >> you're not worried about the
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skinny bundle. >> i'm worried about it. i think the margins will probably increase. everyone's worried about the same thing. whenever you're looking down that tunnel, it's the train that hits you from behind, not where everyone's looking. i think it's not in the number, but i'm hopeful that the margins will be expanded when the skinny bundle comes. >> i feel the same way in terms of the skinny bundle. the important part is the long-te long-term. i think it's interesting, they've been raising the prices. when you go to the parks, and by the way they haven't lost a lot of customers from raising prices, but when you go to the park it is so state of the art, it's amazing. you have to go to the parks to see -- i almost hit my coffee. >> i know, you got so excited about the state of the art parks. >> the runway for all these new franchises with the parks, that
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is a big hurng of their business. we all know that the stud owe is doing just fine. it's the media thing. we just don't know. what is really going on here is consumers are figure it out. the company doesn't know what the consumer wants. that's why every time he has the opportunity, mr. iger, to talk about netflix, he has to be positive about the implications consumers getting it wherever they can. i believe we'll go back to the fatter bundles. i think buying all this stuff a la carte is more expensive. it's more difficult. and i think tens of millions of people in america, my parents, who don't -- they just want the basic one. >> in a world in which -- >> in a world. >> you can do it. >> in a world in which walt disney does not have an espn business, and walt disney company ex-espn, does that merit a higher valuation? are you better without espn?
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that puts tons of volatility in their -- >> i'm going to say no. >> you know what creates volatility? and has been since august? i would say no. hey, maybe we should spin this off. i don't agree. >> yeah, i don't agree either. i do think at a certain point, the numbers are going to trough and you're going to see the tailwind versus a headwind. >> i love disney. my favorite when we go to the walt disney world studio. the parks. the rides. mr. toad's wild ride. >> because we need to know this. >> scary, man. ahhh! very frightening. jamie dimon tomorrow. this big interview coming up 8:40 a.m. a must-see interview tomorrow morning on "squawk box." still ahead, big retail names this week. we'll tell you who the traders are betting will be the biggest winner and the biggest loser up next. fast money traders know a thing or two about working out.
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they're about to put their fitness knowledge to the test right after this break. (politely) wait, wait, wait! you can't put it in like...
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welcome back to "fast money." planet fitness getting pumped up 5%. announced a $20 million share buyback. the gym operator same-store sales increased with 48 new stores opening in the quarter. pointing to the national advertising strategy and gym expansion for the earnings beat. the stock has gained just about 5% year-to-date. up 5% in the after-hours session. >> very funny, mary, pumped up. >> yeah. >> i'm going to go to pete for this one. >> oh, you are? >> the most fit person on the -- >> i work out at home. but i think they have an amazing product. and look at this buyback they're talking about. you can understand why the stock's up. i wouldn't chase this on that number though. >> let's stick with earnings here. three big retailers this week. options traders expecting by moves. dan is over at the smart board breaking it down. >> we had a healthy conversation about amazon.
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department stores in malls or station other stores, three reporting this week. i think you'll feel the adverse effects of amazon taking shares here. these were all horrible performers in 2015. they got off to a great start in 2016. but they've since given a lot back. the implied in the options market, tomorrow morning, macy's, 7.5%. that's a pretty big move for a $12 billion market cap company. we have kohl's at 8%. in either direction. nordstrom's, the same thing. from a market cap standpoint, macy's, that's about $860 million in market cap in either direction. we have $600 million for kohl's. and i don't think the expectations are high. each is off about 15%, 20% from their 2016 highs. they're getting mighty cloes to the lows in february. i expect if you get a miss and a
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downgrade of guidance for any one of these, they'll be right back at their lows. >> guy, which one would you expect to be the biggest winner or loser? >> i think macy's is in a position to do well. nord stronl's either misses big or wins big. if you want a safer bet at these levels, in my opinion, it's m. >> coming up next, the final trade. stay tuned. here at td ameritrade, they work hard. wow, that was random. random? no.
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it's all about understanding patterns. like the mail guy at 3:12pm every day or jerry getting dumped every third tuesday. jerry: every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement. there's no way to predict that. td ameritrade.
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time for the final trade. >> john legend a huge fan of the show. it goes higher. >> xlp, people still reach for yield. >> they're doing that in coke. 23 1/2 times. filling in the earnings gap. i think you have to let it go here. >> the negotiator. >> i found out from the twitter people that the wild ride is no longer. that's shocking.
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>> did they close in '76? >> the price of secondary, if they haven't already. thanks so much for watching. see you back here tomorrow at 5:00. don't go anywhere. for more fas money. my mission is simple, to make you money. >> i'm here to welcome you to the market. there's always money to be made. i'm here to help you find it. >> my job is not just to entertain you, but to educate and teach you. call me at 1-800-4cnbc. it's been an ugly earnings season.


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