tv Fast Money CNBC May 27, 2016 5:00pm-5:31pm EDT
>> and the bond market. i think it's going to be what happened overseas in the bond market. >> guys, thank you so much for joining us. that does it for "closing bell." "fast money" begins right now. "fast money" does start right now. i'm melissa. your traders are tim, steve, brian and guy. tonight on fast, stocks just finished their best week in three months. but if you missed the move, relax. we've got the one sector that could soon catch up to the market. plus, valeant shares, a takeover bid? what's the stock really worth? the godfather of biotech, the chairman of biogen will be here to tell you. there's a fast food bundle, and it could bring hefty returns to your portfolio. but first, we start with the words that could have big implications for your money. take a listen. >> it's appropriate, and i've
said this in the past, i think for the fed to gradually and cautiously increase our overnight interest rate over time. and probably in the coming months such a move would be appropriate. >> that, of course, is fed chair janet yellen speaking today. sounds like a rate hike is coming. if that's the case, what do you do with your portfolio now? >> it's almost a little disappointing, that the fed just decided this is the time. and data dependency-wise, i've fallen on the more constructive side of it. but i'm not doing cart wheels over the data release. fed is not priced in. if you look at your portfolio, those things that were dovish trades i think are extremely stretched. those things that were defensive essentially be careful of the things that are very, very cheap. i think that's something that the market needs -- and some of it you could say this does feel
a little bit like november when we were at 2100 on the s&p and one to two rate hikes were not priced in. there were a lot of people that were caught offguard. i do think -- i'm disappointed that the fed suddenly decided we're all going to get in line and say something. yellen, who by the way is the uber dove gets in line as she did today -- >> but how is this not priced in? if you don't know that the fed is -- i understand the percentages in the bond market. but if you don't know that the fed is thinking about raising rates in june, you're either sleeping dead or not watching cnbc, and that's inexcusable, except for the dead part, but the point being, if you haven't figured this out by now, it has to be in the market. >> so how can it be totally -- tim and i argue about this all the time, i don't think you can be totally in the market unless you know what happened. you don't know if it's june, july or september. it can't be in the market yet.
>> brian and i almost sound like we're at opposite sides. i actually think the market is too complacent. the fed is clearly -- this is as hawkish as janet yellen has ever sounded. i think what you're saying is you're incredulous that the market could be where it is, or are you saying that it is priced in? >> i think it's priced in. i'm shocked that it's even just sitting here, right? i think it's got to be priced in because that's what the fed has been talking about. it would be unbelievably, incredibly unusual if the federal reserve did not raise rates in june after they prepared the market. it would be an anomaly. for me, it's got to be priced in the market. what still goes into the bearish thesis is the strength in the u.s. dollar. we say it's 25 basis points, it's not going to matter, but i
think that's going to cause a big rally. >> up until four weeks ago there was a 4% chance of them raising. that's the real deal with the market. >> if your portfolio -- >> we've only had two weeks. how can you say it's priced in? >> i'm saying the news is out there. where are you if you're not understanding this? >> i think i side with tim on this one. back in the fall they telegraphed pretty much the december rate hike. it rallied from 1900 to 2100 on the s&p. we've almost seen this movie before. i hear what you're saying. the thing that continues to scare me is this, front end of the curve moves up, back end of the curve is stubbornly low. that's not a healthy sign, in my opinion. >> what is priced in? you're saying it's not priced in. does that mean the market falls? is that what priced in means? >> no, no -- >> yes. >> we don't know.
i don't think it is priced in. back in december -- hang on one second. back in december, when they were raising, we thought xlus, utilities were going to sell off. they rallied 17%. we thought the dollar would rally. it didn't. it's still down from that level. we thought gdx would sell off. it didn't. it's up. so everything that we thought we knew back then, you couldn't have priced it in. my point is, what do you do right now? that was the question out of the box. i think you buy xlu. stay away from the dollar. i think you buy gdx. >> utilities 22 times pe when the markets are 17 1/2 in some of the crowded trade? >> people thought it was the biggest screaming short when they raised in december. it was up 17%. it's only pulled off a couple of percentage points. i still think you're safe. where is the yield, where is the search for yield? look at high yield. >> recently they've been going to cisco, microsoft -- but
they're not crowded trade yet. >> so the trades that are -- that would be for an economy that should be growing, and if the fed is hiking actually it's for a good reason, because the world is doing better, those are cyclical trades, those are things that are still very, very cheap and don't look like they're reflecting an economy where the underlying businesses are a lot better. em has already made a major adjustment. i do think fed hikes in june, i think there's a little pressure in the short run. i think as you're buying this pullback right now, ask consistent with what i've been saying, i think these parts of both sector breakdowns and across the lobe have priced in a lot of fed. the first blush, buy that weakness. >> two years ago, when gdp was 2.5%, 3%, that's when they should have done it. they're hiking at the wrong time. but i think they're hiking because they have to because they want to give themselves some runway in case on the back end of the year they have to lower rates again. not because they want to,
because they have to. not because the economy -- this is my opinion -- not because the economy is getting better, because they need to give themselves a cushion god forbid something bad happens on the back end of the year. >> i absolutely think the gold market -- i get it. steve just mentioned where it was and how it sold off. gold is going to work regardless of what the dollar does. i still think tlt is a long side trade. >> yellen signaling a hike is coming. what is next for the s&p? who better than our own steve grasso to give us the next levels to follow. >> as confusing where the opening of this show has been going, the market has done a whole lot of nothing as most of us remember. this is the recent -- i should say this is the all-time high. my premise is, you don't buy this market until there is a new high. you can't get sucked in right here at 2100. when we haven't been able to
fail, fail, fail. we haven't been able to make a new high here. we haven't been able to take out the 2134. fail all along here. you have another fail here. this is the level to watch. but i'm going to say that i don't think you should buy the market until we take out this level. that's the important level to the upside. to the down side, you get retracement. you go from here to here. you get your first level of retracement, winds up 2040. that's close to flat on year. a couple of years ago we were at 2025. this is the big trading range from where we are here, to where we bounced, 2025. this is still a trading range. but for it to be a trading range, you have to sell it at the high of the trading range, buy it at the low. this is not the time to be buying. >> what are the odds we break through 2134? you said you wouldn't buy the
market until we bust through that level. >> on instrumentsly we're closer to that level than we are the lows. there's pretty good odds we do bounce through. i would not put new money to work. i'd rather be lightening up, which is what i've done. to put new money to work, you need to take out this level. >> i think small caps hold the key. i think you should be watch the russell 5200 over the last couple of days. i've been talking about the russell short side as a hedge because i think it's a high beta hedge for a lot of other things in my portfolio. >> is it still? >> so are the longs. it doesn't mean you throw it out. >> up next, facebook taking direct aim at google. how worried should google investors be? plus, oil breaking 50 bucks for the first time all year. but with a crucial opec meeting next week, should you take profits? and later, do you see them making their way on the set. find out what the godfather
in a move to expand the online ad network. what does it mean for google, which is still the dominant player in online advertising? >> still the dominant player, but this is definitely a shot across the bow. if you look at what facebook is looking to do, they're one of the only companies out there that is really successfully been able to monetize mobile. if i was alphabet or google, i would be concerned, in terms of facebook what do you do with it. everybody's looking for that growth in this particular industry, this particular time. i think there's enough in this, enough of a catalyst here, that you could see facebook break out to new highs. what i would say is you trade facebook at this point. generally i don't like to buy the highs, but on a breakout i would buy for a trade. >> facebook or google? >> i think you have to go with facebook. but this is a granular issue of the same thing we're going through with the s&p. you have to wait until the overall market breaks out in order to buy all these stocks that are high. facebook over google, within's
up 14%, google down 4% for the year. google is the wolf on top of the hill. facebook is the one climbing the hill, always hungrier. >> i don't know which wolf i want, the wolf on the top of the hill or climbing up. >> climbing wolf. >> okay. where would you be? >> i would say the top of the hill is this wolf. i think google to me is certainly -- being treated if they don't dominate -- look, mobile, brian, everybody's executing in mobile. the whole world's moving to mobile. google's search business is the same on mobile. in fact probably more enabled. that's a valuation, that to me is a company with a cash cow. i don't care they've broken into two pieces. >> next up, a big day for valeant, the stock jumping more than 5% on a takeover offer.
valeant rejected the offer made just a few weeks ago, before joseph papa took over as valeant's new ceo. guy? >> an offer that had no firm offer price. the whole thing was a little -- it is shady, only because everything that's happened over the last six months has been extraordinarily shady. why wouldn't you think this is as well. i understand if you're short the stock in something like this comes out, there's nothing like taking profits. to me that's all this is. i think there's tremendous headline risk to the down side despite what we saw today and the last couple of days. >> david said, you know what, for a stock that had declining stock price, why wouldn't they reveal if they had a bid in the spring as opposed to now. why would they reveal it essentially after the close on a thursday ahead of a long weekend. all sorts of things didn't add up to him. >> yeah, listen, that's exactly why i think this stock is a no-touch at this point. you don't want to -- you don't want to necessarily try to short
it unless you're using options. you're going to get a lot of these stories coming out of here. a lot of conjecture and speculation. >> if you use a really hard stop and tight stop, the recent low 23 and change. but i think if you use a 25, 26, you want to cut your losses. this is going to be a tremendous volatile stock. and none of us have an edge, not claiming to have one. i think a lot of the headwinds, or the stuff that is known, or priced in -- >> i hear you. as a trader, that makes a lot of sense except for the fact how do you put a hard stop on a name that if the announcement comes out about a bogus deal and -- that stock will be cut in half. >> define risk strategy. that's the only way to do it. i think you could take a flier out on this name. >> let's bring in the chairman of biogen, known as the godfather of biotech. he joins our meg turrell over at the smart board.
i want to start off with the first question. you are known as the one's been at the forefront of biotech m & a. when you look at a name like valeant, what do you think the options are at this point? where do you see it in two to five years? >> well, suddenly, i have no edge on this more than any of you. but looking at valeant, it's pretty clear to me that they need to do something about streamlining their business and reduce that. that's something everybody can see. their business has been put together for many years for a position. it doesn't make that much sense together. it would be highly reasonable the new management team will go through a series of transactions where they would sell off pieces. they'll decide what to keep that would be the core of the new business. they would reduce debt and go from there. all of that can amount to an
outcome that is compatible with an appropriate growth in the stock price. i can't tell you, i'm not the expert, but i can tell you, joe papa is a very competent, experienced pharmaceutical executive. i'm sure he's done his due diligence. i'm sure he believes he can make a difference. i would bed on joe to know what he's doing. >> a lot of folks say that valeant may have overpaid for some of its assets and there's no way it can get a premium, or even back what it spent on buying some of these assets. do you feel like they need to say, clean slate, we'll get what we can to help pay down debt at this point? >> i think that's pretty clear that that's what they will have to do. they were paying on occasion excessive prices, because their business model was based on borrowing, buying, expanding sales, expanding nongap earnings and moving forward. they need to have a lot more discipline. at this point, that's what the in you management team does, it
gives you the flexibility to denounce the past, look forward and make correct business decisions. i'm sure some of the assets that will sell at prices below what they acquired. >> i want to ask you more broadly about the biotech market, and ask you a question through valiant. all of this scrutiny on drug prices and what's going on with valeant, how much do you think that has affected valuations in biotech? >> obviously the conversation, you know, primarily within the political campaigns has focused on this issue. the last time i was here back in october, i predicted that, you know, the price, as the campaigns wind down, isn't as fast as i predicted. but one thing is clear. regardless of the populist rhetoric that you may hear from candidates affecting real change in the space of pricing, is going to be a very difficult thing. it requires congressional action
for those things to change. if there's any suggestion of immediacy, i just wouldn't see it. on the other hand, let's look at what happened in the last few days regarding the proposal by cms on medicare part b, and how aggressive the resistance was by all parts, primarily congressmen, republicans, and some democrats even. it's going to be very difficult. i don't think it's a real challenge, but it will capture the airwaves. >> how much of that sentiment do you think is already baked in, with all three candidates still left in the race are calling themselves sort of enemies of the drug industry? hillary clinton and bernie sanders saying that specifically. trump said he wants medicare to negotiate drug prices and it would save $3 billion. how much of that sentiment, negativity about drug companies is already baked into the ibb, the stock prices where they are? >> in my estimation, it's all baked in. it's old news, considered by the most knowledgeable people. they don't expect any immediate
changes. but we'll see how the campaigns reshape themselves once we have firm candidates on both sides. >> we could take this all night, but we've got to leave it here. the godfather of biotech. >> thank you, meg, and our thanks to the godfather of biotech. do you think it's priced in? >> tim was right about this. i'm going to talk to him about it. but biotech is trading like crude started trading like it bottomed out. nobody believed it. more bad news to come. it's now doubled in the last few months. i'm not sake the ibb is going to double, i'm not. but look at the stealth rally it's had over the last month or so. is he right? he absolutely could be. for me, ibb needs to close above 285 before i'm a believer. >> the unofficial start of summer. we've got four sizzling stocks ready for big gains. i'm melissa lee. you're watching "fast money" on
cnbc. here's what else is coming up on fast. >> crude's gone wild. but the fun could end next week as a crucial opec meeting looms. we'll tell you what has traders so nervous. plus, here's your portfolio. and here's the market. we'll tell you how to catch up, when "fast money" returns. overages, ever. ever a get your own 24 / 7 dedicated business account team. and with double the lte coverage in the last year you can get more done in more places. right now get 2 lines with 10 gigs each for just a $100 bucks. and for a limited time get a hot spot free, yeah free. switch your business to t-mobile@work today.
priority boarding... and 30,000 bonus miles. everything you need for an unforgettable vacation. the united mileageplus explorer card. imagine where it will take you. welcome back to "fast money." charlie sheen making his way back into the headlines. the latest celebrity to release his own line of emojis. the collection features some of his infamous catch phrases. but he's not the only celebrity with a set of emojis. our own tim seymour decided to launch a batch.
very own set of drawings, all available for download at the app store. >> i think the vest emoji is probably the one that most people will want. it says so much about a person. >> what is the most appropriate to use the emoji? >> when you're on tv and want to talk about stocks. i don't know. >> all right. in lieu of the final trade, we're commemorating the unofficial kickoff to summer. stocks could start sizzling as the temperatures go up. tim? >> when i think about sizzling, not just throwing my vest on the barbecue grill and burning it up, but oscar mayer, khe. this is ultimately a company that has obviously out30r78d. it's been in a place that is
very stretched. if we go into a period where the environment changes, because the fed raises rates, i think they continue to outperform. they traded at a premium. they're going to grow it. >> even hotdogs, right? >> two things. >> i don't know what they are. grasso? >> i look back on seasonality. under aur mormour, in july up 1. only outdone by january where it's up 11%. under armour seems like your bet for summer explosive returns. >> for b.k., take a european vacation. look over to germany. the fed raises rates, you'll get a stronger dollar. gxde, at least you've got the dollar hedge. >> remember why you sell memorial day. not to flip burgers. it's the folks who gave the
ultimate sacrifice so we can yuck it up. that said, i know you crazy folks are going to be out there spending the money you have. good for you. happy memorial day, folks. >> that does it for us here on fast. have a great memorial day weekend. we'll see you back here on tuesday. "options action" after this break. i asked my dentist if an electric toothbrush was going to clean better than a manual. he said sure...but don't get just any one. get one inspired by dentists, with a round brush head. go pro with oral-b. oral-b's rounded brush head cups your teeth to break up plaque and rotates to sweep it away.
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we're coming to you live from a hot and sultry nasdaq market site. it's so hot, the guys back here need a moment to cool down. while they're doing that, here's what's coming up in the show. ♪ >> ahead of opec, crude may be done bubbling up. we'll tell you what have some traders so bearish. here's mcdonald's plans to increase sales. ♪ >> we'll tell you why combos are the latest craze for the golden arches, and how you can profit. and, how would you like to buy