tv Power Lunch CNBC June 20, 2016 1:00pm-3:01pm EDT
>> any change from what she said last week. that's going to be the most interesting. i don't think she k she can't move. >> thursday is still coming up. >> keep your eye tomorrow on earnings. i think that's an excellent bell he weather of what is going on. >> great having you here the whole hour. >> thank you. >> come see us soon. >> i will. >> rebecca patterson. "power lunch" begins now. thank you, scott. "power lunch" does begin right now. the gang is all here. brian is here. melissa, michelle and i'm tyler mathisen. stocks are rallying but off session highs. latest polls showing support for britain's staying in the eu. regaining momentum ahead of thursday's crucial vote. >> all of the major averages gaining more than 1% this hour. the dow is higher by 1%. a gain of 207 points. nasdaq, higher by 1.5%. gain of 72 points, 4 snchlt 872. the s&p 500 higher by 23 points,
2,094. we got to get to dominick chu. he has a market flash. >> global retail now. earlier in the past hour we told you the news about walmart taking a 5% stake in jd.com. they're going to swapt businesses a little bit. walmart giving over the china operations to jd.com and getting a 5% share. they were up about 8 pat% going into that trading halt. they are now up about 8%. so trading just a little bit below where they were when that news first came out. just call to your attention what is happening. there again, michelle, all of this on that bit of news that walmart is turning over its walmart china operations. it now be operated by jd.com. and i guess in compensation for that, walmart will get a 5% stake, approximately in, jd.com. back to you. >> operating in china has been tough for a lot of u.s.
retailers. home depot got out of there a long time ago. they were so frustrated. >> absolutely. one more thing, of course, you're talking about dealing with this whole on line marketplace phenomenon as well. you're looking for people, big players to team up here and in this case, the world's biggest brick-and-mortar retailer. we'll see how this changes the retail landscape in china. >> big american companies really need a partner, an on the ground partner in china. we've seen that play out time and time again. dom, of course this helps jd.com compete against ali. -- alibaba. they really focused a lot on groceries as well. >> the idea can you have possibly same day deliveries, some of the delivery options with jd.com delivering some of the services. you're talking about trying to capitalize on the infrastructure already being put in place by
jd.com having that infrastructure, if you will, to distribute the goods. the competition is going to be very fierce. it could be a very large market if you can just get a slice of it. it could translate into some real profits here. walmart citing the gains it could see as a result of this particular transaction. we'll see if it plays out. the stock -- walmart is closer to a 52-week high now than it was just back in november. remember, it hit the 52-week low. the shares are closer to the other side of the spectrum. they've been selling off 30% to the down side over this year to date period. >> all right. dom, walmart contributing to the move that we're seeing today. thank you. to the big rally now, bob pisani? >> 5-1. advancing to declining stocks. we've been steady even after the european stocks closed. nine out of ten s&p 500 sectors are to the upside. we're astonishingly will 8 of the 10 are up 1% or more. that's a broad rally. steady as she goes. look at everything here.
bank stocks up more than 1%. consumer discretionary, industrials, technology, materials. as i mentioned, eight of ten sectors up more than 1%. we're strong right across the board. it doesn't matter where you look. look at the financials, the money center banks like citigroup are strong and regional banks. they're all up more than 1%. the bank index up is 2% overall. industrials, no matter where you look, if you look at the rails like csx, truckers, airlines line american had a rough week last week. honeywell is at a 52-week high now. even the machinery names had a rough start to the year. all up about 1%. materials the same thing. the weak dollar really helping. all the steel stocks like ak steel are on the upside. industrial metal stocks, the big global iron ore names all to the upside. finally, you think there is something lagging here.
why wouldn't defensive names lag? but even that's not really happening. kraft, super value, look at these. all up more than 1%. this is about a broader rally as you are going to see anywhere in the market. back to you. >> as you mentioned, bob, part of the reason we're seeing this rally, the latest brexit poll is a move towards staying in the european union. that's why the stocks are rallying to day. wi willford frost joins us. >> i'm joined now by greg hands, the chief secretary to the treasury. he's the chancellor's right-hand man. greg, great to have you with us. >> good afternoon. >> as we have been discuss in the studio, markets move sharply as we were mentioning. it is all over? they have this tied up now. >> i think it is still athrthre
days to go until the actual vote. i think the very strong foremanance from david cameron last night in the debate, that i think has also helped move things in our direction. still a lot to play for. just getting the feeling i met a lot of people this morning just getting to improve a little bit. >> talk us through, from your perspective, working in the treasury, the impact on the british economy, perhaps the broader european and global economy if britain did leave. >> i use ed to work in the financial markets before the current job i got. i think the impact on the uk economy would be very, very bad. i think the impact on financial markets in london and those working financial markets would be very poor as well. those aren't the treasury numbers but all the independent forecasters, imf, ukifs are all saying similar things at the impact would be very negative. >> in your time in the world of
finance and now in politics and looking at the financial side of politics, how many times you have seen revisions to short term gdp forecasts? >> well, quite a few times. there have been such revisions. those are a little bit volatile. but what we are saying unanimously is the long term gdp forecast, the uk leaving the european union would be very negative. >> the treasuries forecast that's got a lot of news here that it would cost households 4,300 pounds each if they left the european union that, is based on a forecasted gdp to 2030. >> it's not forecast. it's a scenario. so what it looks at is what would be the difference to gdp if the uk were to leave the eu? so it's not a forecast. >> what is the forecast in the short term? >> the thing, is it's not just the treasury numbers. there are other independent commentators saying similar things. a big negative impact on uk gdp
if they left the european union. >> regardless of whether that is correct or not, that view on the economy, do you fear that focus is more on other issues, particularly immigration and you can shout about the economy all you like. but if someone has a bin in the bonnet about the immigration issue, they're not going to listen to the economic argument. >> the economy is streamly important. the campaign hasn't actually been able to demonstration how immigration will be an elect on the european union. but what i would say is that, you know sh that's a big price to pay. crashing the economy and to have to solve immigration. i think that is a huge problem. >> just quickly, your experience in finance, if we did vote to leave, how much could sterling fall on the day? >> it's not my job to speculate from. that but what the treasury forecasts, the treasury numbers have shown is perhaps 12 to 15 cent fall in sterling. the governor of the bank of england said sharply so those
are the sort of numbers that we in the treasury are looking at. >> thank you very much. greg hands joining me here. back to you. >> all right. thank you so much. meantime sh we got the results in from the most recent two year note auction. largest auction since november of 2015. it sold at the lowest yield since september of 2015. take a check on the yield here. a little spike higher, .741%. that's where we stand at this moment. brian? >> perhaps no group of companies is watching at brexit vote more closely than the big banks, citigroup, morgan stanley and j.p. morgan chase. 10% to 20% of their revenues are from europe. so any chaos there can have a big impact on their bottom line. let's bring in a financial analyst. he likes the shares of many of the big banks. he also brought a bag of carrots. we're going to get to the reasons in a second and the carrots. the actual vegetable, mike.
first off, your macro take on if we get a vote to leave the eu, what happens to the shares of the company you cover? >> the shares of the large u.s. banks declined with a leave vote. it would increase the cost complexity and friction for the large u.s. banks. and let's take a perspective here. for the entire decade, the u.s. banks have selected london as the hub for the european strategy. so if you want to unwind that, the result would be a move of thousands of jobs from london to frankfurt, paris and elsewhere. >> you think they fall. listen, year to date, citigroup and morgan stanley are down 17% and 18% respectively. they didn't fall year to date s that in part on this eu vote or something totally different? >> it's been exacerbated most recently here. but the concern is the resiliency of the balance sheet, the earnings revisions downward for lower prolonger rates. and regulation.
so there is enough issues impacting the back here. >> about the issue of them moving, perhaps to frankfurt or paris. the uk still uses the bound. they never actually joined the currency union. they're part of the european union. do you really think frankfurt or paris would ever be welcoming to banks? i mean, find that astounding that london would lose to those cities which make it clear on a daily basis how much they hate banks. >> well, there is just the reality of doing business in many countries. if you want to go ahead and have, you know, your hub outside of london, you might need duplicate data processing centers. perhaps you need more people to clear securities outside of london. you'll need all sorts of complexity to just manage, you know -- >> the day to day. >> you have more friction in capital flows from uk to the rest of europe. athat creates additional complexity and cost. >> i feel like i asked you this question several time. i'll ask you again. the european banks are telling us that there is some sort of a
risk, a bigger risk, maybe a contagion risk. how do you handicap twlornt is fallout on the u.s. banks from what is going on with the european banks. i mean you have european banks trading at levels we have not seen since before the financial crisis. it's got to be telling us something, no? >> that's tough to handicap. i will say that u.s. banks balance sheets are in the strongest shape in decades. this is a nice segue to the bank stress test. i have a lot of news on this over the next two weeks. the bank stress test involves scenarios of 10% unemployment. negative 6% gdp. stocks in the u.s. following by half. and only after that stress are banks allowed to return capital through dividends and buy backs. so as bad as brexit would be, it's not life ending for the u.s. banks. the banks are so resill yenlt. >> i'm so glad to hear. that and life is not going to end for the u.s. banks. i know americans will be
comforted by. that how big a deal is brexit though? and it is a transitory effect? as you rank the hierarchy of risk to u.s. banks which a lot of the viewers may have stock, where does it fit? it is number one? it is number seven? >> it's not number one and it's not number seven n the short term, markets don't like uncertainty. banks have to deal with that uncertainty. it could hurt trading and other capital market activities. it could hurt economic growth. as you said at the start, you know, 10% to 20% of the rev knees of the largest u.s. -- >> what do you expect the stress test to show? any surprised? >> i think the stress test will show that banks have the most resir resill yenlt balance sheets they've had in decades. the fed has a big stick. one out of seven banks have failed the stress test the last three years due to equally take theive, subjective equally take theive factors. what won't show, unfortunately, the fed as big as their stick, is they need more carrots. >> the carrots.
>> so i went shopping. >> we get to the carrots! >> that's gross. >> look. the fed unintentionally is keeping large banks bigger for longer. because what i say to the poor performing banks like citigroup morgan stanley, bank america, when i say poor performing, returns for the cost capital. i say go ahead and downsize. derisk. sell off assets. one thing they say back. the other thing they say is we lose the revenues. who is to say we're able to use the freed up capital for buying up stocks? that's the carrots. that's what the fed is not doing. the fed, unintentionally is keeping large banks bigger for longer by not distributing carrots to the banks. you won't see carrots the next
two weeks. >> we are one step closer to a snowman, by the way. quickly, you call jp morgan chase the lebron jamgz es much banking. is that your favorite stock? >> that is one of our top three. >> one of. >> our top three stocks. as we said, lebron james, he is good at offense. he is also good at defense. jp morgan has a dividend yield of over 3% which might be an increase in the dividend of jp morgan. you'll continue to see that strong defense. we also think they'll have better offense here as they benefit from better markets recently. >> what's up, doc? >> yeah. >> not manufactuy of the bank s. but soon they will be. mike mayo, thank you. and thank you for the carrot. i can see better already. >> that is super insightful. >> meantime, the stock rally continues. yeah. i own a home and an apartment. but coming up, is this rally really all about the vote
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what do you see? what do you stick with? >> well, i think the move in gold is not long lived. the selloff, that is. this is one thing that i thought there were three things specifically, the british pound, gold, and the vix. i think vix going down that certainly could continue if we get the positive vote out of referendum to remain. i think the british pound rallies. i don't think that either those have a long term negative impact on gold. i it this risk off or risk on is why gold is down today. so that's the one i would say of the three. >> so basically, you would buy gold? >> i would. in fact, i'm probably selling more puts in the afternoon today on gold. >> yeah. and tim, you know, some of the moves are really profound. we're seeing within the markets. i mean european financials, for instance, take a look at shares of deutsche bank. take a look at what is moving the most, what you would save? >> the things getting the most of a, sashgs brexit off rally, i it this eu banks are still a place where as we talked about
mike play yoe shed more positive light on the banking sector than many probably feel. but the reality is that there are still issues con fronting the eu banks and include capital issues that are not the u.s. banks. having said that, you remove brexit from the front burner. i think the european banks will continue to rally somewhat. that is a rally you save. it's not a place i would want to be short. i think the places that you look to see where i think there is a brexit or not is the dollar. and the dollar which even in the worst of the polling last week really couldn't cap a rally in the face of a fed that was stepping back. i think all of the inverse dollar trades that we have seen work already this year will continue to work. and i think if you're playing both commodity and playing emerging markets and even playing european stocks which, you know, could actually rally with a strong euro, even though typically they actually would like to see a weaker export euro and better export environment. the dollar to me is really the
thing to watch. 9380 at the endst week is a long term average. i think if it doesn't close above, i think the dollar weakness starts to accelerate dramatically. the and the trades that already worked through difficult times are going to work much more. >> thank you. i have to leave it. there dr. jay, tim, i'll see you to night. >> thank you. >> all right. we're all over the big rally. the dow, nasdaq, s&p 500 each up just 1%. plus, daily fantasy sports getting a boost here in new york -- not here, i'm in new jersey in, new york state. we're good. okay... what if a million people download the new app? we're good. five million? good. we scale on demand. hybrid infrastructure, boom. ok. what if 30 million people download the app? we're not good. we're total heroes. scale on demand with the number one company in cloud infrastructure.
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a major wildfire burning in california near the mexico border. hot and dry weather fueling the fire making it harder on firefighters. 1500 acres burned so far. the fire is only 5% contained. the city that is 45 miles east of san diego has been evacuated. >> all right. let's take a check on the final gold trade there. they're crossing for the day. and this is the story of the day. move out of the so-called flight to safety of assets of the markets. we're seeing weakness in the price of gold down by .4% as we are seeing this rally in equity taking a check on the rest of the gold complex. we're seeing green arrows across the board. copper of note up is by 2%. palladium up 3.6%. and platinum is up 2.2%. also, let's take a check on the dollar. we mentioned this is a major driver of the commodity trade going negative against the yen. we should just moments ago we
should mention that the dollar index as a whole, that is at the lowest level in more than one week. you can see that tick downward right. there. >> like the rest of the market, me list yashgs retail stocks are rallying to day as well. the xrt, a huge retail etf up nearly 2%. but it is still been a very tough year for the retail stockholders. the average down 15% this year. we're going to tell you more about the big names that are slumping in the retail sector this year. plus, watching this broad market rally again. here's how some of the most widely held stocks are trading to day. google, apple, microsoft, jp morgan chase all doing pretty well.
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i'm sharon epperson. here's the cnbc news update. the fbi releasing a transcript of the 911 call with the man who killed 49 people in an orlando nightcl nightclub. the heavily edited transcript shows him pledging allegiance to a terrorist organization and admit together killings. >> the killer 49 and the shooter of 53 others identified himself
as an islamic soldier who colleged allegiance to a terrorist organization which is bent on killing americans. he does not represent the religion of islam but a perverted view which based on what we know today was inspired by extremist killers. >> gun maker remington is again asking a connecticut soup your court to stop a lawsuit against it from going forward. they blame the manufacturer for making, distributing and selling the assault rifle used in this sandy hook elementary school massacre. >> the fda says pharmaceuticals can start testing a zika vaccine on humans. it's tended to prime the immune system to fight it by introducing genetic materials that resemble the virus. >> and a private funeral ceremony was held for the two french officials.
at the request of the family, cameras were kept at a distons to ensure privacy. back to you. all right. sharon, thank you very much. stocks are rallying to day as that vote over whether britain will stay in the european union, feert surrounding it have eased just bate. joining us is michael binger, senior portfolio manager at grate yant investments. welcome. good to see you. is the so-called brexit vote influencing what you do with your portfolio in any sort of measurable way? >> no. it really isn't. if they did decide to leave the european union, he would have to take that into consideration because the eu economy is really the second largest buying unit and selling unit in the world. so the s&p 500 companies we invest in, they have a lot of exposure there. but i think if england did leave that, would be, you know, it's all speculation. anywhere from a 2% to 4% hit to the economy. maybe short term in nature. i think the polls this weekend shows that the england populous
is deciding it's better to stay than to leave. and that's a short term positive and relief raly. we're seeing that today. >> if they do leave and if then as we go out a few years some other companies -- countries might leave the european union, i would think that would play to the dollar's benefit there. and a stronger dollar would generally make large cap u.s. companies, multinationals less competitive. right? >> that's exactly right. you remember when greece and brexit and now all the countries behooves them to stay together. >> right. >> but if they don't, you're right. the dollar will be stronger against those local currencies. that's a head wind to earnings. and we saw that head wind the past year and a half really as the dollars got noticeably stronger. so yes, i believe you're right. i think we're seeing that head wind of the dollar strengthening. i think that is good. >> right now, which do you prefer snt big dividend payers or growth companies?
>> i still prefer the big dividend payers right now. it's been a choppy market. if can you get anywhere from 2% to 4% additional dividend that, is good. >> abbott labs one and under armour, even steph curry couldn't help them last night. >> let's take abbott. abbott is down 25% off the highs. they're in the midst of acquiring two companies. i think when that's done, i think abbott lab will be a very diversified strong company. you rarely go wrong when you buy a blue chip company down like. this i think it all works out. >> and under arm dour down. but they have a hot brand. they do have curry and brady. they have spieth. they got a lot going for them, right? >> yes. they do. this is a long term growth story. i mean, i look at under armour
doing five billion in sales. i see nike doing $32 billion. i think millennials resonate with under armour right now. >> go to our website to see how he is playing the oil recovery. that's on our website. melissa? >> let's check on the bond markets. we have red air rows across the yele curve. the two year note auction, the biggest since november of last year selling at the lowest yield since september of last year. we are just off the session highs on the yield. .737 is where we stand right now. take a look at that ten year note yield. 1.673%. just keep in mind, a few sessions ago, we saw 1.518 train day. so quite a move on the yield side and just the past week or so. ty? >> thank you, melissa. new york state's ban on fantasy sports could end over the
weekend. lawmakers move to legalize and regulate sites like draft kings and fan duel. the bill now heads to governor cuomo's desk. in a cnbc exclusive, here is draft kings ceo jason robins. cnbc's parent comcast participated in and investment in fan duel. and an nbc sports executive is a board member there. they do not have those companies or those individuals a stake in draft kings. jason, welcome. good to have you. did this law and other laws that have been passed recently in some six separate states, or have that correct that, basically regulate the games? did they save your business? >> well, i think that really the laws needed to be updated in order for business like draft kings to be able to continue to grow and thrive. they simply were not set up to address the business like ours. it was time and i think there was a need for regulation. so i don't know if i would say
saved. but i think that we really needed the laws to be passed in order to see kind of -- >> new york is your biggest state by number of customers, correct? >> it's a little belocale call. >> a little belocale call. >> but it's a very important state. how happy are you today? >> i'm thrilled. i mean it's amazing to see lawmakers embrace a new industry, to understand that people want it and the best thing to do is figure out how they can responsibly participate in it. it's good for state. there will be tax revenue generated. it's good for fans and the companies that are employing hundreds of people in new york and elsewhere in the country. >> how much you are going to -- as a rault of this law in new york, how much are you going have to pay to new york in term of tax? >> i mean, it will be millions of dollars. but that's okay. i mean, i think -- >> what's the rate? >> 15.5%. well, 15% and then a registration fee. >> 15% of what? of gross revenues in the door? >> yes. revenues generated from new york. >> revenues generated from new york. it's your revenue.
i'm going to ask you an uncomfortable question, how much did you pay to lobby the new york state legislature? >> i honestly don't know off hand. >> you did pay them some? >> we employed lobbyists and government affairs team members that were very hard at work trying to make sure that the lobbyives -- excuse me, the officials understood and were educated about the stock. >> it's education. legislature education. >> what i found, i know people are skeptical. but what i found is policymakers want to do the right thing. so they do need to get educated. >> there has -- there are about a dozen states or there abouts where the games are not permitted, basically. do you expect that this law in new york and those in other states will then become templates to do the same thing in states like nevada where obviously there is a very complex situation there. but washington state. there are some of the states where they are banned, louisiana, alabama, is that alabama or mississippi? that's alabama down there. michigan. do you think -- this will be a
template for those? >> i certainly hope so. i think that a lot of states are watching what is happening in new york, new york often does serve as a beacon for other states. but it depends on the state. some states will look at what new york did and it will be a template. others am look at it and say it doesn't affect our policy glchlt there are stories in the press about a possible merger of you and your other competitor fan duel. where does that stand to the extent you can tell us, number one. and does the passage of this law which is presumably will be signed about it governor, does that take the pressure off you to need to merge? >> so there is a topic i've been asked about quite a bit over the years. i think pretty much since we've been around. i don't really see much of a relationship between that topic and the topic of the new york law. i think that they certainly, you know, people feel like maybe the conversation changed or something like. that but i always been consistent saying that i found it to be interesting. nothing's really changed from
our perspective. and, you know, we'll see. i don't really think will is anything that's going to happen imminently. >> you have taken the steps internally to ensure that the customers of your business and i have been one can feel secure that what's going on inside is transparent and that no one is gaming the game? >> absolutely. and that's really what the regulations are all about. so each of them -- each of the rules will address things like. that we're doing that across the states. some states have passed. we're implementing it across the whole nation. >> thank you again. >> thank you for having me. >> draft kings. brian? >> well if, you're just waking up from a two day nap, here are breaking news. the cleveland cavaliers beat the golden state warriors to win cleveland's first ever nba title last night. this is not a story. they didn't just beat them in basketball, it is beating the bay area in the stock market as well. we know this because we have our
exclusive power city index. our group of 40 city and metro area stock index composed of companies head quartered in the region. and wow, cleveland does rock. you can see cleveland, the red line, crushing the bay area in stock returns as well. not only is it beating the bay area market, but the cleveland power city index up is nearly 10% this year, guys. making it one of the best cities for the stock market anywhere in the country. it is led by big gains in stocks of companies like j.m. smuker. there is a jam and jelly joke in here somewhere and in orderson corporation. some are metro area index. it is based outside of cleveland. but it's in the cleveland metro area, hey lebron is from akron. despite the loss, the warriors had an amazing basketball season but not so much the bay area stock market. the san francisco eti, barely up 1%. twitter, the gap, and wells fargo are bringing everybody else down. >> let's do a full disclosure.
i mean, oakland, right? oakland claims the golden state warriors. >> yes, but there were not enough companies based in oakland. >> i don't want people out there to be outraged at you. i'm looking out for you, brian. that is our team. it is oakland's team. it's not san francisco's team. >> no, they were the san francisco warriors for a long time. >> yeah. >> we're talking about a -- >> they're playing in rutherford, new jersey. >> oakland, you are right, oakland the disown san francisco in many ways. oakland is the new san francisco. but it's all we got. >> well said. >> cleveland lost. >> fascinating. headline, melissa lee hates cleveland. >> no! >> what? that concludes that. >> you're going to throw me under the oakland sfwhbus? >> major news out of donald trump campaign this morning. we'll have that story. plus, which candidate do people
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call today at see car insurance in a whole new light. liberty mutual insurance. donald trump parting ways with campaign manager corey lewandowski. the decision was trump's and he personally told him this morning. you may remember that he was involved in an incident with a reporter when lewandowski grabbed her arm. prosecutors declined to press charges. are you worried what will happen with the united states' reputation if donald trump or hillary clinton become president? people are worried. steve liesman joins us with the results of that survey. >> thank you. fascinating results.
let's start off with a look at the most important issues are. not health care. not taxes and government spending. not necessarily foreign policy and terror. it's a close second. the economy is the number one issue. watch what happened after the horrific attacks in orlando. we were polling in the middle of that. foreign policy and terror gains. the economy fell 7%. so much more on the minds of americans. take a look at which candidate they peprefer when it comes to these candidates. >> 55% say clinton. 27% say trump. how about trade with other countries? interestingly, clinton gets the nod here, too. but our polls, one for the republican side, one for the democratic side, both stha is bad news for trump. the republican candidate should have a double digit lead on national security issues. take a look here at which -- what the president would be on our world standing in the u.s. under obama, they say in general
31% say they're making the world a lot worse. how about clinton and trump? take a look here. this is the last numbers here. 44% say our standing in the world would be a lot worse under a president trump. and the reason is because it's 76% of democrats, 12% are republicans but 44% are independent, exactly matching the overall number say it would be worse. folks, i've been doing this for a very long time. we never get big numbers like this on the extreme. when they're like this, it's a very meaningful number. in general, we ask the extremes, we to end get answers more in the middle. of course, all of that equates to who will you vote for? you can see this slight edge, 40 to 35 for clinton over trum weapover trump. so both those numbers are very, very large, michelle. >> let's talk to the pollsters who helped do you this. jay campbell joins us.
and michael roberts joins us. both are here with us. what do you make of the numbers related to donald trump? so hillary has a slight lead when it comes to who you are going to vote for. yet the margin of error is donald trump pretty close. should he be worried at this point? >> what we have here is a combustible electorate. and, you know this is a functionally tied race as far s polls go. you have independents favoring clinton by three points. i think both of the candidates are very flawed. and this high number of people that are undecided, a hallmark of a election where we have two candidates with very high unfavorable ratings. so you see the people pushing to the middle and are pretty much suffering if a lot of uncertainty in term of what kind of candidates these two candidates will be. >> we're looking now at a
graphic that shows the neither voters. 35% independents, 23% blue collar. want to ask jay campbell about the 20% of standards voters who are undecided or say neither. where do you expect them to break, jay? >> given the way other voters are breaking, those who have already made up their mind, they're breaking for clinton by an extremely large margin. it teams the 20% who still haven't made their decision say that neither candidate is real i didn't think one for them. pretty good bet that they're going to break pretty heavily for hillary clinton at the end of the day also. some of them will go to trump as some sanders supporters already have. it's a much spaler proportion. >> j.r., are they as likely to vote, though? isn't there a chance they can just stay home? >> there is. certainly. there is a chance they'll stay
home. believe it or not, we're still at the early stages of this general election. it doesn't feel that way. it really s and we have two conventions to go through and two campaigns and two major national parties that are going to do everything they can to get voters out the door. and you can be sure that dnc and the hillary clinton campaign are going to target those bernie sanders supporters very, very hard in the coming months. >> i know it's an old phrase. does it still stand? is it still the economy, stupid? i don't mean you sh st, stupid. we see that clinton and trump are tied when it comes to who is best for the economy. and neither has an advantage. a little advantage to the middle class and lower class for clinton. but ultimately when it come to the overall pocketbook issues, seems like it's a horse race here. >> look, on both sides of the aisle, the candidates are putting out messages that are appealing to the bases and speaking to two different groups of people. on one side on hillary's side
sheshgs speaking about moving forward. capitalizing on the progress that's been made in this economy even though we look at the economic measures, they're flat. that means two-thirds of americans are feeling like things are pretty pessimistic about where the economy is or where it's going. but she wants to move forward. on the other side, donald trump is talking to a disaffected group of mostly -- not mostly, but a core group of older, more rural people who are seeing economic ceilings at every turn. so they're speaking and he's talking about returning to american greatness. look, they're talking to two different sets of people and what they have to do is try to talk to that middle section of people who are undecided. and try to really sway their opinion and get their economic juices flowing. >> thank you. i've been working with them for ten years. among the best in the business. one of the best polls. >> i'm glad to know we have the best. 25% of the people up for grabs. it's crucial. >> there you go.
>> thank you. oil is rallying to day. higher by more than $1. a gain of 2%. $49.11. we're talking about the $50 level. energy stocks the biggest gainers in the s&p 500. marathon, murphy oil, sw energy. devin energy as well. big movers there. marathon oil, when you talk about the small numbers, you get 11% move. we have much more on this rally coming up on "power lunch." don't move. it's more than a network. it's how you stay connected. with centurylink as your trusted technology partner, you get an industry leading broadband network and cloud and hosting services. centurylink. your link to what's next. experience the thrill of the lexus is f sport. because the ultimate expression of power,
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comcast business. built for business. stocks remain in rally mode. this, of course, after the latest polls show that's the remain camp is gain something momentum at this point. take a look at the all time highs being made in today's session. consumer staples, interestingly, that's a theme. conagra, general mills, mccormick making new highs in today's session even though it is a third worst performing sector on the s&p 500 today. >> facebook is a steady gain they are year, up 9%. they're holding the shareholders meeting moments from now. we go there live. plus, jd.com shares are soaring. they bought part of walmart's china unit. what that this means for walmart.
in china? >> well, it looks like it's going to help a fair amount. they're going to get a lot of new eyeballs to the site. they'll have a store of sams.com on the site as well. that will be something new. it brings a lot more traffic to walmart. we'll have to see if that's the way it develops. but it looks like it's a pretty good deal initially. there's financial impact to walmart in the second quarter that will be a discreet item of 16 to 19 cents which means no book a gain on sail of 5$59 o million. >> could walmart continue doing this on its own or did visit to have a local domestic chinese partner? >> i think that's hard for us to say. i wouldn't know the answer to that as well. but i think having this partner is probably a pretty good one. this partner looks like they
have the most revenues in the dot-yom world in china. it looks like it's a pretty good deal. can you see the stepup from the assets that they sold, the market may not have been valuing that at all for any of their improvement in china. now they own still their direct sales business, they're selling off the marketplace platform to jd. >> could this be a precursor to other deals in local economies? i mean, would walmart, do you think, or it could benefit from striking up these sorts of deals in other areas where it wants to capture market share? >> well, an area of improvement in walmart is on the last two conference calls is their dot-com business. it's not growing fast enough. and the marketplace has been one of those areas where he wants it to grow faster. so if there are other deals that could happen, sure.
walmart showing the willingness to make those deals happen and to take some aggressive move in the dot-com world. whether or not that happens or not will dependent on how they can fashion those and whether it makes sense for both parties. >> all right. thank you for your analysis. appreciate it. >> thank you. >> it is coming you on 2:00 p.m. on walt. about a minute shy of it. let's take a look at where the markets stand right now. the stocks are off morning highs. the major indices all up more than 1%. it's a 200 point kind of day for the dow jones industrial average. through see it up 199 at 17,874. s&p 500 up 22 or 1.07%. nasdaq, biggest gainer in percentage terms, up about 1.4%. what texas crude is having a nice day as well. up better than 2.5% on the button. facebook's annual shareholder meeting kicked off. big proposal making news. the ceo mark zuckerburg's push
to change the voting structure of facebook shares. we're live if redwood city, california with, that story. >> hey, tyler. that's right. facebook shareholder meeting just kicking off right now. there is a live audio stream online. in the hotel behind me, facebook's expecting about 200 shareholders, that is the number they had last year, to hear the results of some key votes and participate in a q&a. on at agendaa, electing the company's board and improving a proposal to provide a new class of shares to allow mark zuckerberg staying in control of voting shares even as he sells to fund his fiphilanthropic efforts. despite opposition from the shareholders, there is no question that facebook's proposals will be adopted because ceo zuckerburg controls about 60% of voting shares. we'll be listening for the comments to shareholders reiterating the ten year plan.
he'll also see what sparks the shareholder q&a. we'll see if anyone raises questions about peter thiel's role as director after backing a lawsuit against gawker. she and the company support his board membership. and it will be interesting to see if there is any commentary about facebook's role of the upcoming republican national convention. facebook plans to maintain the support of the convention even as apple reportedly has pulled out of the convention due to the opposition to donald trump's policies. that according to poe lit ing i. let's get a shareholder and analyst take on facebook the stock. thank you for joining us. larry, let's talk about the
bullish case. you made mant on facebook for your investors y not trim some or have you? >> well, i think you have to look at facebook being a unique bird. the company has come from practically nothing to $2.5 billion a year or a quarter of cash flow. the revenue growth is very fast. they and google dominate a market where they have an advantage over the competition in that they can prove that their advertising works for the users. users in terms of the advertisers are growing rapidly. users in terms of the consumer of the product are growing very rapidly. it's a global platform and revenue growth is very quick. facebook has grown so much. it is done all of the things that you say. certainly the law of large
numbers may or may not be catching up with facebook. but why not take the profit off the table in the stock you made because he owned it for a long time? >> well, i think the reason is that the runway is very, very long. the revenue growth is very dynamic. over 50% for a company this large. it's a unique animal. it's 35 times trailing cash flow. and that's not a terribly big number. and when facebook increments revenue, and they incremented revenue $1.8 billion in the last quarter, the only cost thez have are costs in terms of strategies for future growth. their current employment and the necessity to employ servers. so a very, very high marginal profitability. i think in order to justify in this interest rate environment, a 35% -- or 35 time multiple, all you need is growth and cash flow of about that.
and you're really close to twice the multiple of the trailing cash flow in terms of the most recent quarter and i don't see any reason why that is going to slow down very significantly. although, i'm very respectful of the law of large numbers. so i think it's a marvelous business. it has a long runway and reasonably priced. >> i have to bring in ali here. we saw facebook and pressure on facebook based on an analyst note on google expressing concerns about ad trends. i'm wondering how much of the -- should we view it as trouble for google means trouble for facebook or trouble for google means good news for facebook? >> that's a good question. i think it means somewhat of a good news for facebook in term of more ad dollars being allocated towards social network advertising. however, you know, to touch on larry's point, overall, we view the company as pretty positive.
it's network effect, strong netwonet effect around the large user base and engagement is positive. the data they compile every day, user data, certainly positive. the steps they're taking to try to get into the virtual reality space and, of course, utilizing their artificial intelligence technology is positive. but looking at where the stock is right now, it's trading at pretty close to the intrinsic value we give facebook which is around $120 a share. so we're being cautious. don't forget, these guys have additional competitors. much smaller competitors. but, you know, snap chat is coming out there and doing pretty well. they made enhancements to the app, to the discover page and story page. and they've added api. so there is some competition. and we just don't see revenue growth to continue to grow at
the same rate. we do see see ddeceleration. >> thank you. weaver cou we are counting down olt days of the june 23rd vote whether or not to leave the european union. cnbc is going to provide live coverage throughout the night on the vote. bring you up to speed on when we expect to see results. so thursday, june 23rd, the polls close at 10:00 p.m. in london, london time. that is 5:00 p.m. new york time. at approximately 1:00 a.m. friday morning if london, we'll start to see the first official numbers come in. around 3:00 to 4:00 a.m. friday morning, it's expected that it's expected that about 50% of the returns will be accounted for. here's one place to watch. currency traders hedge funds, there is more particular pollster group that they're following. it is focused on northern england. one of the first districts expected to report at 1:00 a.m. there is very little doubt that they will vote for a brexit.
quet is by how much? if they vote for a brexit by a huge margin, six points or more, that's expected to be a big sign to suggest that nation as a whole may vote for brexit. the closer it is to sunderland, the better it is for the remaining camp. let's bring in wilford frost. we saw a slight shift in the polls. >> absolutely right. i think it's great you brought up that regional point. i think it's very important to focus on. the first results will come out in the north ofening glanld. you know, of course, i'm based here in london. it's very cosmopolitan. it's educated. it cares about the economy. london very much expected to vote remain. and vote remain strongly. earlier today i caught up with a leading political consultant who by the way said that swing over the weekend he feels has been
significantly overdone. i asked him what is the feeling in the rest of the country outside of london? >> i trouble a lot around the uk. you go to different parts of the uk and obviously in one private a couple weeks ago pretty hard to find people who say no coming out to remain. >> and needless to say, of course, michelle, the currency traders, the equity market traders created that big move that we've seen today. they are predominantly based in london. that may not -- that maybe one of the areas that people have overreacting a little bit in the market move today. the other point i just add as well, from all the people i talked to and not saying that my friends are representative of the whole nation, but people haven't changed their mind if they're planning to vote leave. it is something we're looking at in the undecided area, a small area. yes, of course, it will be crucial. but we haven't seen a vast change in sentiment over the weekend. we've seen some undecideds shift
to remain we haven't seen lots of people that are planning to vote exit. so the moves have surprised me a little bit. >> yeah, i was, too. good point. thank you so much. wilford frost will be there all week for brexit. let's bring in peter bookmar. he is chief market analyst with the lindsey group g to see you here. the pound when i look at the way it trades tells me that resman going to win. when i look at the bookies, they lean toward remain as well. if it hadn't been a tie, you know 3shgs-1 now. it's 4-1. the polls are closer. what should i believe? what do you pay attention to the most? the markets? what do they think? >> the markets got it wrong a couple years ago with the election. but markets usually more often than not get it right. so i'm going to lean in that direction. to me, it's so 50/50 that i'm not going to venture to guess. >> follow the currency market if you follow any market? >> yes. the markets are just as manic as
people's psychology is. >> i was speaking with a currency trading firm. they said the implied volatility in the pound is so big. what could happen? it could be so large that a lot of hedge funds just won't trade it for pure risk management fuchlt get it wrong, can you put yourself out of business. >> right. i don't blame them. the pound is having the biggest rally in seven years today on just the poll over the weekend. >> so to me, that just says it all. >> which shows a tie. >> exactly. a tie. and the other one is only three points nlin the remain. to get a violent move is certainly a signal that people should not be betting on this if you plan on speculating. >> friday, if they vote to leave, what do you think happens to the markets? >> i think the initial reaction is chaotic. i think it's a lot more complicated than. that i'm still struggling with whether this is just going to be just one gigantic inconvenience rather than anything more nefarious than. that it's going to take a few years for the uk to physically leave. i have to believe that the eu is
going to do their best to try to keep everybody else within the euro-zone or somewhat calm and satisfy whatever demands they have in the future. i think there is the potential for this to be an all about to do about nothing. >> wow. we'll see. very nice english reference there. i like it. >> thank you. >> we talk about brexit, thank you so much. all right. still skid beneficiadish about how do you track and retain top talent. and the world's biggest manage managers, what are they saying when they talk about brexit? all that and more on "power lunch."
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genetically efrpg neared materials that resemble zika. human testing expected to start in the coming weeks. inovio pharma shares soaring more than 60% this year. the company's ceo will join us in a "power lunch" exclusive tomorrow. >> time for street talk. stocks you need to know about, first up, corning. they start with a buy.
investor sentiment in the display market turned too bearish. and generally going in a stronger second half of the year. they have the size matters. screen size. it is more important to citigroup than volume of display adding every one inch gain in average lcd tv screen size equates to 7 to 9 cents in added earnings. buy big tvs, america. corning is smarter about hedging. the target is 13% upside. >> glw, you know what that stands for? >> glass works. >> yes. >> i'll be driving through corning on wednesday night. >> really? >> yes. >> next up, yelp. deutsche bank is upgrading to a buy. 33 to 26. the analyst sees stabilized sales force productivity more confidence in the management team and improvements in ad improvements. they boosted estimates to the high end of the company's guidance. the analyst says he sees considerable upside potentially from there. down side risk is high
dependence on google. a nice pop for the beleaguered stock. >> listen, yelp this year -- one year has been terrible. the last couple weeks it's done great. and we're going to have to see either more price upgrade. it is $2 above the consensus price. next up, spirit airlines. ticker save. upgrading it from an outperform. the story is back on track. the company looks better going into the second half of the year. part of an optimism related to the new ceo driving sentiment. it's about 30% upside. they said even higher jet fuel prices lately this he expect spirit airlines to grow earning business 15% next fiscal year. >> and, of course, as you know, the airline sector is a disaster particularly surrounding the brexit fears and i'm talking about the airlines more exposed to international routes. spirit not one of them. it had been sort of lumped into
that whole group. next up, pfizer. jeffries is removing them from the franchise pick. management is expected to decide much it's like a brexit vote. do they separate them from the rest of the group by the year end? if they decide to separate, it will happen about it end of 2017. argue ams in favor, higher valuation. capital arguements. against. lack of inversion. they went through the inversion deal. declining costs in the specialty gene segment. really what we're talking about is the odds of them separating has lessened. so, therefore, they're not as excited about it. >> will sunderland vote against or for the brexit? >> i lot of pharma. big, big, big wait. no. no. smaller l he's get bigger. the only winners, the bankers. today's. >> narrator: radar name, activity holding. it is a new name. a recent ipo, all the analyst calls starting to come out. it's an atlanta based payment solutions company basically huge
amounts of data to make sure the clients get paid in health care and retail sectors. jp morgan starting with an outperform. sun trust buy and a $24 target. goldman sachs and credit suisse the most bullish i saw anyway is $25 target. the average target price by the sway $23.50. so more than 20% upside, me list yashgs seen by most analysts on the newly ipo'd cotivity holding. >> the skeptic in me wondered who underwrote the ipo. >> all right. is your port foal overexposed? ahead of thursday's crucial brexit vote? the stocks most vulnerable to a brexit bust, that's next.
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penske automotive group, xerox, ford, ebay all have doubling digit revenue coming out of the uk. it's been a volatile ride for the stocks over the past month despite that, they have moved up in that time. xerox by more than 8%. ebay up by more than 4.a%. all right. how do you brexit proof your portfolio if you're of a mind to do so? let's bring in david nelson with bell point and sandivily vill y. good to have you with us. david, you have an interesting approach here. you like defense and infrastructure because there's a little european exposure there? >> no. i think these are themes that will do well no matter what happens with the vote. you know, brexit proofing your portfolio is impossible. this is two-ways to get you through no matter what happens. >> particular names in defense?
>> yeah. in defense, i like them all. but by current favorite is l-3 communications. lll is the symbol. it's right in the sweet spot. communications and intelligence, recon, surveillance. hard to believe that line items will go down in a defense budget that is likely to go higher. >> shocking of all shocks. a small cap guy likes some small caps. >> yep. that's exactly right. we look at a lot of history. you look at where the last ten small cap markets have gone since 1978. and average they fall about 35%. this time really no different. it fell 25% through the trough on february 11th, 2016. so i look forward from those trough periods. and on average, every one of those for the recovery periods is 58% in the following year. it is good quality companies that are not exposed to brexit. and there is a good recovery
there. >> my daily hamill son reference is to the history has its eyes on you. here you have eyes on history. after this bear market, the small cappers that you like go up a lot. these are things they sell to the police in the military. great cash flow business. but it's the body cameras that are basically a land driver right now. they never had more news announcing the company's history winning san francisco, los angeles, new york, chicago, and it's not the cameras themselves, it's the fact they sign them up to store the data that ends up being sort af software as a service type of business. they have that monthly reoccurring revenue stream. i like this one a lochlt i think it works out well. another company i like is financial engines. it is founded by bill sharp in 1996. this has -- this is the largest registered investment adviser c.
they gobbled up the store. so i think this is going to work out well for folks. it is one that welcomes good to me. >> it's interesting to me that each of you come at this from a different point of view. both of you arrive at security related stocks. >> interesting, right. >> yours larger, l-3, lockheed, northrop and so forth. i guess. and his was taser. >> i hadn't thought of that in terms of security in here. it's an interesting die nam wlak dynamic that is taking place. fear, intrigue, and even murder. so that's how i'm approaching it. the best way to get through. this. >> a number of your picks is pretty far away from that is home depot. >> actually, it is home depot and supply. it is a spinoff several years ago. it is private equity and brought back to the public market in 2013. you know, i think this is a company that is a distributor
that is probably amazon proof. they sell to contractors. not the likely items that you're going to pick up on a cautionary note. fair amount of get a company like. this when companies get spun out, they load them up. i think the financials are pretty good and they'll weather it. >> home depot supply. >> correct. >> i read too quickly. >> hds. >> we appreciate it. sandy, always great to see you. so what are the best and brightest young talent looking for in an employer? we'll bring ut data ahead. ♪ it's here, but it's going by fast. the opportunity of the year is back: the mercedes-benz summer event. get to your dealer today for incredible once-a-season offers, and start firing up those grilles. lease the cla250 for $299 a month at your local mercedes-benz dealer. mercedes-benz. the best or nothing.
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signing the city's 1.5 cent tax on soda as those in attendance cheered. philadelphia is the first major u.s. city to have a tax on sugary beverages. >> hot dry conditions continue to fuel a wildfire burning along the u.s.-mexico border. it consumed some 1500 acres and 5% contained. it comes during a record breaking heat wave across san diego county. >> and pope frances meeting with former israeli president shim own perez at the vatican. the pope hugged perez at the start of the meeting and told him he was excited and grateful for the visit. the two discussed the recent wave of terror attacks across the globe. that's the cnbc update at this hour. >> the oil market is closing for the day. first, let's check out the price of gasoline futures. they're up by 5% today. let's get to jackie deangelos at the nymex for the rest of the close. >> good afternoon to you, me list yachlt you're right.
gasoline futures were up to day. they were up along with crude. crude setting new session highs in the last two minutes alone. up $49.42 is as high as we got. really trying to make that run for $50 a barrel. it was a currency move today. we saw that weaker dollar and also as brexit fears are easing that, is going to contribute to the strength we see in crude. expect this to continue. jim told me earlier $53.10 possible next stop. back to you. >> all right. thank you so much. stocks off of their highs right now. still in the green as we head closer to the close. let's get more from bob pisani on the floor of the new york stock exchange. bob? >> hello, melissa. just off the highs. we did hit 2100. that elusive number. take a look at the s&p 500. 2100 earlier in the day. we're at 29. it's off that. still steady as she goes. let's call it a pretty broad rally. we're off the highs. the brexit sim pressive. a lot more volume going to
stocks on the upside. the volume is light. particularly compared to the quadruple witching. and the volume, volatility, excuse me, is dropping right now. sectors, eight of ten sectors were up 1% or more. that's a broad rally when you have banks and energy and tech and industrials all rallying more than 10%. you can see this in the dow stocks today. just look at the dow leadership with goldman in the financials and j morgan up 1%. nike up is nicely. intel in the tech group. and new high there for 3m. a lot of the big industrials like ge is also up more than 1%. and that, folks, is what you call a broad rally. back to you. >> and that, folks, is what we call thank you, bob. appreciate it. all right. in january this year, ray monld james analyst projected year end crude at $70 a barrel. shortly there as after, you know what happened. oil tumbled. they stuck by the forecast. oil made an enormous come back. that brings us to doo to day. ray monld james raising the 2017
forecast to a cool $80 a barrel. joining us now to talk more about that is our analyst. all right. making this call. we're not at $70 yet. you are still sticking fwby tha $70 target about it end of the year? >> it should be around $70 about it end of the year and higher than that in 2017. the reality is at $50 oil where we are today, global supply would barely stay flat. probably it would continue to decline. just not as quickly as it has been. so we need, you know, 55, $60 to really stabilize production and then closer to $70 to actually begin to achieve, you know, meaningful supply growth. let's remember, demand is growing. demand is growing 1.5% this year. you know, hopefully 1% next year. with all that happening, it's not enough for supply to simply
stop shrinking. it actually has to grow again. >> where are we? there is so much going on. i'll forgive anybody out there including myself for not fully understanding where we are on a week to week basis. you had supply coming off. libya had issues. nigeria has issues. but supply is komg up from iran. demand, as you said, gently rising. where do we stand with fundamental supply/demand right now? >> global oil inventories in the last six months have increased. now we're looking for that to reverse in the next six months. we think global inventories will be declining in the second half of the year. they'll be accelerating in 2017. over a million barrels in 2017. almost as much by the way in 2018. and that assumes supply actually begins to grow by the end of next year. and that is a mirror image of the last two years have been
which is setting new highs. >> we know you more than equity guys. so viewer at home, if they believe what you're saying, they think that is great. how i do make money off this? what companies are well positioned or best positioned for the scenario that you're talking about? >> the number one, this is not the time to be super defensive in energy. something like exxon, stay away from. way too defensive. to play the oil recovery, you know, up to 70 or better in the next 12 months, you know, these ought to be highly or leavered names like marathon oil, new field, whiting petroleum, continental among smaller cap names. these are the highly oil leveraged, not gas. very different story in natural gas. but higher in oil companies and also some of the, you know, drilling companies like halliburton, for example, the one that's will benefit from the recovery in industry capital
spending which is really the next thing to watch. how these companies begin to put more rigs back to work as they feel more comfortable about the commodity. so that is going to be a really big thing to watch as the year concludes and we see what the 2017 capital budget are shaping up like. >> if you're right, capital budget should go up. we lost a trillion dollars in capital spending over the past two years. very bullish on oil. thank you very much. we'll see you again. >> thank you. all right, still ahead, the most attractive companies to work for according to a survey of more than 400 million members of linked in. we're going to tell who you brought home the corporate tiara.
ping-pong, unlimited food, check out perks. sales force is designed with helps and they give employees aa $2,000 travel stipen. now those are just some of the next level perks offered by companies that made this list. the linkedin's first ever list of top tractors. these are the place that's job seekers are most interest in and in fact by data billions of clicks way the network's 430 million plus users. now it may surprise no one that they told tech names top this list. but lesser known companies like pandora and striker show autopsy head of huge profitability fortune 500 companies like disney or procter & gamble or ge. they didn't even make the cut. now this list suggests that people are seeking the excitement of growth of start-ups even big companies that have growth, high growth
over blue chip scholars. while the list is dominated by tech, not a single company in the energy or the retail sector show up in the top 40. now it may also something to do with market performance. manufacture the top attractors have also seen outside returns over the past five years. look at the numbers much the top five names on the list have all at least doubled their share price in that period compared to the s&p 500, 65%. employees are following the money and they're following some of the perks i mentioned as well. back to you. >> all right. thank you. what does it take to attract top talent? how can companies keep ahead of other competitors? well, one thing we just learned, bill george, senior fellow at harvard business school, former med tronic chairman, is that attracting top talent may have something to do with stock price. >> well, tyler, i think it thooz do with a lot more than stock price and i don't even agree with the idea that it has to do with perks. i think it's about the kind of
environment you create for people to come in and make a difference. you're dealing with millennials. they want to make an immediate impact. they want to make a difference. en that is more than the compensation. they're smart enough where the compensation will follow. they doan want to stand in line in a highly structured bur of course sichlt they're tumbling. they want to work in a hor zonlt alt organization. goi google is a horizontal organization. but each team is really doing something really exciting. that's what they're looking for. perks won't hold them for very long. they'll go away very quickly or they even out. anyone can have a bad workplace and good perks. >> my experience with younger workers, said the old guy that i am, is that they don't want to get stuck. right? they don't want to get stuck. they want to do stuff now. maybe do stuff that's beyond their abilities now but they want to do it nonetheless. but they also, obviously, there is no coincidence there that
good companies have very good stock returns and they like to go to a place where they can make money, too. >> well, tyler, which is the chicken and which is the egg? i think they have good stock returns because they create a great workplace with great people that are motivated to do something. that's why an extension works so well. that's why facebook is doing so well. mark created a great environment there. it's create the environment where the best people want to work. you know you're working on something really important and you get a shot right now. i had a chance to run a division at 27 years old. the start, the consumer microwave oven business when there wasn't any. it was a great opportunity. we went from 10 to 200 million. it yaz a great opportunity. that's what they're looking for today. i always tell people -- go haechltd. >> ways going to say, there wasn't one microwave oven manufacturing company on that list of the great places to work. so are some people being overly swayed by the idea that here's
the hot amazon, the google, the facebook and so forth? and might they be overlooking? they downgraded procter & gamble, energy company. you are on exxon's board. they don't want to go. there boring! bad! maybe they're overlook something great opportunities in places that you might not expect. >> you had that right. because exxon can you go out f you really lot of business, you can go out and explore for oil and take on really challenging things. yeah, i think so. but you have -- people are a little insecure and they tend to fly like birds that fly if a flock. they may find this way or that way. they always want to go to work for a hedge fund. now the hedge funds are out so they want to go to silicon valley. i think there is that tendency. j & j is on that list. they're a great company. they want to go to work for j & j. they say millennials are flockers. let's go on to brexit. you're on goldman sachs's board. you've been obviously must have
been in some discussions there about what it's going to happen, what is the likely consequences are. i know goldman sachs has big plans to build a big financial center in london. what's going to happen? how are american companies going to be affected? >> i just talked to michael sherwood, head of not just britain but all of europe and the emergency markets for goldman sachs. what he told me is that it is shifting in the favor of the people who want to remain. that is the good news. and that's why i think the stock is up to day. but if they did exit, it's going to be, i think, a really big decline for what was great britain. it will start to shrink and become an island mentality. right now the big european banks, goldman sachs is not going to leave. they have billion dollars or close to a billion and putting into a headquarters. we're going to stay. we have 6,000 staff members. we have to have more offices all over europe and the middle east and africa if this happens.
that's not our choice. because london itself has become one of the great financial capitals of the world alongside new york. and it's one of the most diverse places in the world. and so the real problem in britain is much like in the u.s., i think these are big issues where manufacturing jobs are not as pref lent. i think -- i hope they will stay. it could really hurt the european community. it is really put together, tyler, to bring peace to europe after hundreds of years of war in the aftermath of world war ii and the people that put it together. it is really started with peace. and then economic union and britain needs to be a part of that. >> all right. phil george, thank you for joining us from minneapolis. >> if you were a ceo of a retail stock or company last year, you were optimistic. after all, the economy was improving. jobs coming back. gas prices were down. unfortunately reality gets in the way of emotion. most retail stocks are down over the past year. some of them down in a big way. none, perhaps, more so than
luxury retailer nordstrom. shares of nordstrom have lost half their value in the past 12 months. i mean can you see there is a quite a negative run by the way. i was going to show the backup. you know the point and i know you talk about this on "fast money," only sears, cons and one other name has done worse than nordstrom. usually you think the luxury kbh companies are immune. >> you mentioned performance in the past 12 months. nordstrom is sitting at five year lows at this point. deterioration and the shares -- >> why? it's luxury. it's for rich people. >> it's a luxury trade. >> all of the sectors are hammered. this year is going to go down, when it finally happens, we knew it was coming. we knew it was coming because of amazon and others. but now it's here. it's arrived. >> nordstrom has one of the best web sites for buying stuff and
doing it seamlessly. it is really, really g. >> here's the thing. anybody here need more stuff? no. >> does anybody need more stuff? >> he we all came of age when chinese manufacturing really took off. when i was little, clothing was expensive. really expensive. it was a struggle to find a bargain, now, severing a bargain, right? the whole model changed. we have so much stuff. >> i also think, you though, seven proclaiming the death of retail. i do worry. i have a good friend of nine is a executive at a major retailer. my wife worked at retail for 21 years. the fact that homes and cars are selling so much, i really have been on this for two years, if we see that slow down, will retail pick up? right now everyone is buying homes. the stuff they need is not jeans or jegings, are those still around? it's couches. you know, lawn mowers. >> and when you buy a car and house, it tauz a big percent pe your income. you go to home depot and not
nordstrom to buy a sweater. >> even the lease ads, can you get this mercedes for $499 a moo with $8,000 down. all right. how do you prepare for -- >> are you ready to discuss this brexit vote? >> how do you prepare for a brexit? that is not a breakfast cereal. if you have billions on the line, the top hedge fund managers weigh in on the brexit. life insurance automobile insurance i spent 20 years active duty they still refer to me as "gunnery sergeant" when i call being a usaa member because of my service in the military to pass that on to my kids something that makes me happy my name is roger zapata and i'm a usaa member for life. usaa. we know what it means to serve. get an insurance quote and see why 92% of our members plan to stay for life.
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reliably fast internet starts at $59.95 a month. comcast business. built for business. the s&p 500 and most of the other major indices are surging today. our new record highs just around the let us ask. congratulations. >> excellent. >> so we've had a good day today. others are going, oh, it's the brexit vote. first off, is it. and do you think new highs are around the corner? >> certainly the breck it vote is going to be a toss-up. nobody can wager on it or against it. it looks as if everything goes through, it's okay.
the math rises by 3% to 4%, but if it's a negative vote, then we're down. >> okay. if you are correct and let's say they do -- i think they're going to stay, but say they vote to leave and the market does fall, please put those puzzle pieces together for our audience, chad, because even if they vote to go, we're talking about a five- to ten-year process. it's not like g.e. is going to suddenly stop selling stuff into france because of brexit paralysis. >> i completely agree with you. so there's the financial cycle aspect of it and the economic cycle aspect. the economic cycle is it's not going to be a meaningful difference for the united states or global growth expectations
for 2017. but for a financial system perspective, this could create some uncertainty, and when you have valuations that are priced to per effect, this could create an opportunity on the down side. commodity prices also weaken as well as emerging currencies. we're not expecting this to be the banking crisis by any measure. >> all right. you've got the whole thing. always giving you more. back in two.
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on my screen you see an excel spread sheet. what percentage of the vote each district accounts for. we're talking more about what the top hedge funds are talking for three days before the british go to the polls with kate kelly. this is such an asymmetric risk, right? up or down. what are they doing? >> it's brutal. hedge fund managers in the uk appear to be split. their political views are
remaining but on the market front, they seem to be united. take a look at a recent poll result. that's a pretty overwhelming majority and market positioning would seem to reflect that, too, in one key area. that's by leveraged funds. those hit a three-year peak early this year. this was january/february time frame but leveled off. with equal numbers. remember, of course, the pound is expected to fall if there's an exit. in the stockmarket there's a fresh means of optimism suggests there was a late hour surge. the euro stoxx rallied and we saw other major european indic s indicesing down the same thing. they said the expectation was 10% upside and 5% from the s&p from friday's closing levels.
so a lot of different data points there. that said some managers are simply leery of playing this game at all. here's the quote. it's hard to position for the events. for those who don't have the risk, it may be inherently wide. so kind of an interesting summation there. >> yeah. you have to have risk management within your portfolio, right? because if you get it wrong, some funds could go out of business. so if you think the outcomes are sigh divergent on either side, you stay away from the trade. >> exactly. if you can get out of position without taking too much pain, why don't you do that. on the other hand, i spoke to an energy manager who's got energy based companies. the dollar. strong dollar relative to sterling could be a benefit.
he's got to do something to even that out, right? >> yeah, absolutely. a lot of those hedge funds, they're doing their own exit polls. >> it's interesting. we could have our own spread sheet of all the different calls of what's going to happen. >> or just have it. >> that too. "closing bell" starts right now. hi, everybody, welcome to the "closing bell." i'm kelly erns at the new york stock exchange. >> welcome back. >> thank you. >> stocks are being drivenen largely by what's happening in the uk right now, the key vote on whether britain should remain in the europeanionion as you know is on thursday and stocks seem to be rallying that new polls are growing momentum for the main camp, but are investors getting ahead of themselves, getting too