>> jp penny hasn't sold appliances in 30 years. jcpenney. >> the last check on tesla shares, 195 or so in the after-hours session. see you back here tomorrow at 5:00 for more fast. my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. mad money starts now. >> i'm kramer, welcome to mad money. welcome to cramerica. i'm trying to make you a little money. call me at # 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. should i stay or should i go
vote in the european union makes you numb. we're dealing with total overload at this point. we have prominent rich people that don't care about stocks. we have hedge fund managers talking about how the pound sterling will crash. we have wall to wall coverage of this event in every periodical. more than i can recall when portugal, ireland, italy, greece and spain were about to go belly up a few years ago. i think there's a real possibility we could be taking something that isn't a big deal. at least most certainly for the u.s. and turning it into one. if major countries had truly defaulted during the euro crisis a few years ago i think we could have seen a collapse of the
western world. this issue again could easily have rivaled the panic of 2008-2009 in our country. i'm choosing not to worry as much precisely because everyone else is. it will be my job to recommend the stocks that shouldn't have been hammered because they had nothing to do with britain. of course, we have to wait for the people who have decided they had nothing to fear but fear of brexi it itself to panic and dump their stocks for this exquisite buying opportunity. if you don't wait for the selloff, you may buy too high. everyone else seems to be waiting for brexit to play out. i'm stuck watching companies that report numbers and they're either not so hot or they're
being received poorly. take two that reported today. carmax is disappointed with very slow same store sales. while they were proud of the results themselves, i remember the days when things were spoken hot at this company. they sold a lot of used cars. that is bad news for this industry, that many believe is peaking. lennar, saw stocks sore at the opening. it came right back down to earth and then some. the market reaction i felt was way too negative. i can't tell the market what to do. perhaps the gross margin expansion doesn't occur. i'm glad that after the close, kb homes put up these numbers. that's a lot of the economy there. at the same time, both canadian pacific, the giant railroad to the north and westerner, the
about a heamage trucking company said business was sub par. leading to giant declines in the stocks. canadian pacific was hurt by the wildfire out west. westerner owned up that the business is simply sluggish. fedex closed on the quarter, it wasn't enough to please the critics. you put it all together. they're all painting the same picture janet yellin did. congress is not as strong as it was. and to me, that's far more important than the brexit vote. oil had been down badly, managed to cut the losses. the rebound was helped by a stunning statement from slumb slumberge. nearly doubled u.s. oil production are 20 to 30% below
break even if that's the case, oil production isn't going to go much higher that's certainly good news for the oil patch, as is the work that schlumberger is doing. now, this turn drove pioneer natural i told you last night, to buy that one back to the price it did, that giant secondary last week. up more than three dollars, stunning move. once again, a sluggish economy creates more buying in the stuff you buy. begged people yet again to sell jm smucker. stock rallied again. meanwhile, a pair of stocks that hadn't been able to get out of the way, facebook and apple. they saw some good news. stocks went higher. facebook's instagram revealed it past 500 million users. apple got the green light to open some retail stores in
india. a lot of it was held back to say there's nothing new in the iphone 7. the crucial company to watch right now is microsoft which paid billions for linkedin. a business that was growing much more slowly than instagram and saw it's stock rally above where it was i told you they needed to buy growth. there's a real scarcity of cloud social and mobil stocks out there many people thought microsoft overpaid for linkedin. how much longer can this darn twitter stay independent? doesn't it make you think about it. we know twitter is announcing long video. we know it's cache. twitter's still got that part time ceo. does he get up in the morning and say, should i go to square, should i go to twitter?
what should i do today? i don't know. maybe it's the calendar. who knows. >> maybe we'll go to the other company, get those credit problems worked out. >> if microsoft stock rallied, how about google or facebook, they could shell out 18 billion for twitter. microsoft has enough cash, they could combine twitter with linked in. adobe reported numbers tonight that weren't enough to satisfy those that no one could do. biotech has become the best house in a rough neighborhood. this is the address of biotech. the bloodletting is extraordinary. maybe you have to feel the pain of those that own valiant which seems to have a stock that's disinterest greating before our eyes.
i don't like swimming with jaws. just plain nasty. here's the bottom line, let's circle back to the only story that matters to everyone else. brexit. and i want to leave you with a question that i'll be posing quite a lot on friday morning. what does a decision by the u.k. to leave the european union have to do with the price of bristol-myers? the answer? nothi nothing. >> caller: big giants fan from new york, i have been a facebook stockholder since the ipo days. i've seen big gains. is it time to sell? and do you see a stock split coming soon? >> stocks play -- i don't wan to -- look, everybody's decided the stock is as bad as apple stock lately.
>> you have andrew saying, it's overvalued. i don't know, how about we take a longer term view of facebook, it's doing quite well. how about that instagram. facebook's finished. we can't buy any stocks here. sean in new york, sean. >> hi, dr. kramer, thanks for taking my call. >> of course. >> being an it major in college, i can't help but notice the future growth potential in cloud computing. of course, my question is in regards to the sales force. i like the growth, but i'm uneasy about the insider selling and how close it is to a 52 week high. do i buy now? >> maybe you wait for someone to get a chance to be disappointed off brexit. everyone tells me, you know, the world's going to come to an end on friday. if it is, that may be a good time to buy sales force. >> what do you think of xerox?
their spin off. >> i thought it was going to be better. i thought the xerox spin-off was going to be good. no one cares for it at all i got to tell you, i kind of believe in it. it's not working. patrick in texas, patrick. >> love the show, recently picked up a couple of your books, started reading get rich carefully and i'm thoroughly enjoying it. i was wondering about netflix and what do you suggest? >> they are shelling that netflix. the stories, amazon coming after them, you have to be worried about international slowing. there's a piece yesterday very negative about the growth rate. i have a feeling this stock is going lower. and -- oh, that's it. should the u.k. stay or should it go? i got to let you know for a lot of stocks.
the price of natural gas has been on fire. over the last few months. does it have the fuel to continue rallying? or is it running on empty. polaris makes some of the coolest toys adults can buy. is it time to look elsewhere for new wheels. dan pulling the curtain down on act one of its 30 year run. as it begins to split itself into 2. i'll tell you what it means for investors. stick with cramer.
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so does the natural gas have the fuel to continue rallying thanks to the record breaking hot weather or is this running on empty. >> we're going off the charts to answer that question. carly is a brilliant technician who is the co founder of my colleague at realmoney.com. garner totally nailed the recent commodity breakout when we last checked in with her back in march. she said the whole complex is ready. given that track record, what does she think of this breathtaking run in natural gas? long story short? garner is skeptical that this move can last. you know what she's thinking? and what are her reasons? why don't we start with some context. gas is especially hostage to weather patterns. the fuel suffered massive losses. . people needed less fuel for
heat. lately we've reversed those losses because of this historically hot and dry summer, which is everyone burning lots of electricity to blast their air conditioning. natural gas has displaced coal far faster than anyone realizes. whenever we use power, the price tends to go up. they're feeling the summer heat. however, as much as garner is enjoying the run, he thinks the commodity is about to peak. and her view, the market is over estimated the demand for natural gas cooling purposes and underestimated the power for seasonal tendencies. what does she mean by seasonal tendencies. take a look at this natural gas. this is an unusual chart. based on the last 15 years of data. rather than depicting prices, it shows us probabilities. the axis will show the time of the year, but the y axis ranks the odds being in a relative annual high or low.
with 100 representing a typical peak garner points out that natural gas prices firm up during the spring. in anticipation for the summer heat. this rally rarely lasts. in most years, natural gas prices begin to sag in mid to late june which is where we have the highest probability of a peak. if this seasonal pattern holds true, the commodity is nearing its highs right now. how reliable is the seasonal pattern? get this. >> in the last 15 years, october natural gas has declined from october to december. from july to september, they have fallen in 13 of the last 15 years. what about the weekly chart of natural gas prices. while the bulls have been running the show lately, and you can see that, natural gas seems
to be running out of up side. the percentage oscillator, tracks whether natural gas is incredibly overbought. and it's currently in the high 90s, that's very very overbought. meanwhile, the relative strength index, another important momentum indicator, that tries to indicate change ahead of it is nearing 70, that would indicate a dramatically over heated market too. >> garner notes that in the past, natural gas has been stopped in its tracks. you can see, boom down. here down, it's a great correlation. natural gas prices will be facing resistance. the down trend dating back to june 2014, represents a ceiling at 225. can you see the ceiling right here. two mid-2015 swings high.
bringing in a resistance level at 310. that's about as high as it gets. in short, natural gas can rally another 20 cents from here, but then garner thinks a reversal to the down side. it can break out at 3 per million or btu's, garner says this would be more likely more than the bulls can handle. especially when you combine them with the already over bought nature of the commodity. throw in that nat gas almost always peaks near the end of june. it's an interesting setup, isn't it? >> here you can see that natural gas has been roaring, it's very simple as part of an expanding trading range pattern. garner says this very pattern suggests the commodity will turn less than 10 cents above where it's trading right now. this natural gas rally is going to run out of steam sooner than
later. maybe you take a look at chess peak. maybe that's too high. what happens if the commodity peaks sometimes. based on the long term trading channel, possibly could fall down to 2009 to 218. that would represent a full retest of the spring lows. it's possible it could sink back below $2. garner doesn't think that's likely. we have been experiencing some abnormally holt weather. with all the seasonal factors going against this fuel. garner doesn't want you getting complacent. especially since natural gas is heading lower real soon. we're probably about to go through the hottest summer on record, which should lead to surging demand for electricity and natural gas. much of this is baked into the price of the commodity, the charts in the seasonal patterns suggest that natural gas will
peak soon. from then on, it's likely to get slammed until the fall. given our track record, i think it might be a good idea to take profits. nobody ever got hurt taking a profit. there's much more mad money ahead. including my take on a company that could be the king of the road this market. grab the keys, taking a road trip. a major american conglomerate is splitting itself into two companies. i'll tell you how the millennial mind-set is impacting the market. stick with kramer. tokyo-style ramen noodles.
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that getting 78% of its sales from atv's, snowmobiles and motorcycles. at the same time, they're a domestic company. generates 70% of its business throughout the u.s. thor industries was born in 1980 when the founders decided to buy air stream. since then, thor's made a strategic acquisition, to the point where it's one of the world's largest manufacturer's of rv's, travel trailers, fifth wheels and specialty trailers. now that you know what we're dealing with, let's dig in. it sounds like a weird story from viking mythology. first it's worth pointing out,
from the generational bottom in 2009 through the end of 2014, it was polaris leaving thor in the dust. the latter gained 476%. last year, polaris gets a tongue twister, they got polax plunging. thor held steady. polaris down another 3%. part of the issue here, is simply that polaris stock got way too overheated in that monster run from march of 2009 to november of 2014. polaris got hit with nasty head winds a year ago. creating a perfect storm that cut the stock in half from its highs. polaris highlighted a number of internal factors that drove the stocks awful performance last year.
resulting in even higher costs. scott wine called it, and i'm going to quote him, one of our most disappointing executions ever. on top of that, there's the inventory issue. as it boosted production aggressively during the boone times of previous years, in 2015 there wasn't enough demand to serve up all this additional supply. they had to offer rebates on their all terrain vehicles. in addition, management acknowledged they've done a lousy job of forecasting the results. even worse, polaris has quality issues. they had to recall atv's, due to fires.
tragedy and it hurt the brand. then there are external factors like the super freaky strong dollar and then there's competition from the likes of honda and yamaha. both of which benefited from the weaker yen. we didn't have much of a winter last year. how can you expect to sell snowmobiles if there's no snow. that's the reason they had to cut their guidance in the middle of the quarter. in short, polaris is real life proof of murphy's law. they dropped the ball repeatedly, and the result is the stock that justifiably has been pummeled. four industries, a very different story. where as polaris has been trying to expand overseas.
thor is all american. their products are made in the u.s., almost entirely sold in the u.s. and canada. while they may get a boost when the global company is doing well. that's going to influence when the rest of the world is doing poorly. then there's the competition. polaris has been eaten a lot by its competitors. the rv industry is basically a slap happy ologopoly with ford controlling 7% of the market. plus, thor's rv's have been spontaneously catching on fire. . catching on fire for sales, not catching on fire. at the same time, thor has made a conscious effort to sell its business in recent years. polaris continues to diversify in more and more categories.
this complexity is what led to polaris' paint debacle. thor's been doing a pretty good job. benefiting from a number of tail winds. they acquired postal aluminum. part of an effort to control costs by bringing elements of the supply chain in house. more and more baby boomers are retiring. leaving them with lots of free time on their hands. on top of that, because these recreation vehicles are real gas guzzlers. the lower price of oil has been a positive for them. and a variety of reasons like the zika virus. domestic travel has become a lot more attractive in the u.s. that helps thor's rv business. the most recent quarter reported a couple weeks ago, was a fabulous beat. even after the huge decline in polaris in the last two months, the stocks are valued at the same level. a little over 12 times their
2017 earnings estimates. thor is doing much better. they deserve to trade at a premium here. there are too many moving parts, too many questions. if you're looking to own a maker of leisure equipment, i say pass on polaris and give thor a chance. if the u.s. economy slows substantially, these two will be in the doghouse. if you believe our economy is doing well enough, to keep rv hope alive as i do. may i speak to ed in pennsylvania. ed? >> jim, how are you doing? >> i'm on fire, how are you? >> depends on what you tell me. >> will i get to stay up all night tonight and thursday night. i get to pull two all nighters, i love that. >> caller: i'm an investor at johnson controls. >> sure. >> caller: and i was wondering how will the merger with tyco
and subsequent spin-offs affect my stock price. >> i think you're going to do fabulous. >> i profiled these two as a merger, i should almost hit it again, it's so solid. you are in good shape, sir. those are two companies that are determined to make a lot of money for you. and how much do we like that on mad money. unfortunately, i like scott so much, the ceo of polaris. you don't want to. i stick with thor, only if you think u.s. economy is still in the right road. a company that sells $20 billion of products a year. then there's 80 million millennials in the u.s. alone. it's estimated we'll be spending $200 million by next year. it's their world, let's face it, i don't know if we're living in it any more. i'm thinking, rapid fire, in tonight's special edition of the lightning round. stick with cramer.
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a little more than a year ago, we learned that danher was planning to break itself up into two separate companies, a heavy duty industrial business and the science and technology business. i've been pushing for this breakup since may of 2014, since then, the stock's giving you a 30% return. the news was still a little surprising, because they spent decade decades growing acquisitions. this is the last company you expected to split up. it became a more pit of unrelated businesses. product identification,
automation and water quality systems. it had become a confusing and cumbersome piece. recognizing just how much value could be created by a breakup. the split is now fast approaching. on two weeks, exactly on july 5. the company will spin off its industrial business as a new enterprise, keeping the science and technology assets under the danher banner. what will it look like once the separation happens. before i get into the details, if you already have a position in danher, for every two shares you own, going to get one share in fortive. it gets the professional instrumentation business. meanwhile, danaher keeps the life sciences, dental and water quality. that means the new company will be many much more consistent
company. one less sensitive to fluctuations in the economy. we also found out danaher was acquiring paul corporation removes contaminants from all sorts of substances. the company's biggest take over ever we thought that was terrific, we still do. the assets are staying with the new danaher. over half of the company's revenue, will come from the life sciences and diagnostic's market. you start breaking it down into more detail, you find a common theme. the business has a lot of recurring revenue. that should account for 60% of the total. consider it piece by piece. first there's life science and diagnostics division. this is one of the two takeovers, the purchase of radio
meter in 2013, followed by the big acquisition of one we loved. beckman colter. for 6.9 billion in 2011. that's a deal that made danaher one of the biggest companies out there. there's danaher's dental segment. they sell a wide variety of consumables. including dental imaging and restorative care products. you know we love the dental market. we just had henry shine on last week. they're a star. third, danaher has a water quality division. they help analyze, treat and manage the quality of all kinds of water. we just covered the water industry last friday, and all the money that's needed to keep
your drinking water clean finally. the product identification business. the only industrial like asset that's keeping the spin-off. it's basically an industrial printing business. nearly all the company's product identification is on market share. that's what the new danaher is going to look like. is it worth owning frankly i think this breakup remains a huge win for both companies. the spin-off creates two new companies that are much easier to understand and more importantly they're easier to value. this makes our job easy. straight up industrial, while the new danaher is straight up a life sciences company. you got two fairly straightforward companies, wall street will love that there's a
reason why i'm focused on the new danaher. the industrials have been underperforming lately. the two divisions are down a.5% and 1.5% respectively. the business that houses water quality, life sciences and diagnostics. total revenue increased by 2.4% danaher is spinning off its high growth sciences company in cyclical markets that are occurring. at the same time, half of their revenues are derived from colter. they're still in the early stages of tried and true business practices. plus, the deal gives danaher
filtration -- i like this new danaher as a company, what about the stock price. the prebreakup sells for 18.8 times next year's earnings estimates. it should be clearly valued differently. how differently. let's consider some comparisons. thermo fisher, the huge life sciences trades at 16.6 times the numbers. it's too low. i think the stock should sell higher. elmers, a life sciences company, similar to the new danaher. danaher is already a premium to that. letter a is a good comparison to the lab side of the business, it sells for 21 times next year's numbers. illumina sells for 23 times earnings. 24 times earnings, what we do, we put them all together, figure it out. and i don't think it would be too crazy for the more danaher
to get a higher multiple and trade it 21 or 22 times earnings. that's a subjective, but that's what i come up with, it gives a decent amount of post spin upside. they can really shine. buy buy buy. >> i think this spin-off is a win-win. danaher is the stock that's in the best position to run after the break off. if you own them both, no problem, i'm convinced that fortive will become a better, sharper more focused company. ♪ before a movie star unwittingly gave you
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>> what's up? >> caller: i'm in industries. what can you tell me. >> it's been hurt by a strong dollar. we've not been able to recommend the stock. layla in ohio, layla. >> hi, thank you for taking my call. i have ino's, they just begin testing for zika virus. should i ask for my -- >> i think you sell half the position. i know this company. but i don't want to get too aggressive, because you have a big gain. let's go to thomas in indiana. thomas? >> boo-yah jim. >> from here on, we lose a minute of daylight. what's up? >> i need some mad money. my favorite fast food is popeye's. >> she's doing a good job. i think that last quarter was
good, the fast food industry -- let's go to kenneth in tennessee. kenneth. >> boo-yah, jim. my stock is it allergen. >> this is going to go down until they close that deal with teva. once they close that deal, you're going to get a bid underneath, because they're going to start buying back stock. >> small energy company based in denver, name of the company is bill barris corporation. >> absolutely, that's an energy stock that's recovering. i would say, time to caching. >> jose in california, jose. >> boo-yah jim. >> is it going to make me money? >> no, it's another one that we think is going to be hurt by the fact that natural gas has run too far, too fast we like oil.
let's go to jude in new jersey, how are you? >> i'm good, how are you. >> i have a question for you. >> applied technologies, gcp. is that a good investment? >> i don't know, i have to do some work on that baby. >> let's go to don in new york. >> my problem is alcoa. >> they're splitting up into two, and i think the value will come out then, you have to understand, have you to be patient. once it splits up. it's only then it's going to come out. >> i was just wondering if you believe the increase in caterpillar is a false move or -- >> no, no, i don't. i think every hedge fund brother starts the stock in the mid-50s to 60s.
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let me give you a peak into the mind of the modern consumer. experience is in. you pay for netflix or a costco membership, but you won't pay retail prices. you don't mind being seen in a dollar store, because you think it's smart. you would rather be caught dead than pay the posted prices. swallow your pride and go to walmart, only if they deliver your stuff to the car. you go to six flags over the movies because it lasts all day. you would rather uber than own a car. if you do have a car, you drive a few extra miles for cheaper gas at costco, and you bring your smart phone to compare prices. you think going to neiman-marcus is insane. you can almost get something
cheaper online except for tjx. you'll spend money on estee lauder which you buy at you will ta. your parents just signed up for facebook. you like to tweet, but now it's too mean, you wish they would clean it all up. you're not willing to spend $500 for platinum american express card, with when you can pay nothing for an affinity card. you would rather rent than buy, buying requires too much money. you can always live at home. you would rather have shifts than call shots over your own life. you multitask, so as not to waste a minute. you pay for the skinny bundle if you pay for it at all. you get your news from facebook and redit. you don't like paying for content online, because the internet is supposed to be free.
you order from your phone because you don't like to talk, except to skype with your parents. you don't open a traditional checking account. if it's not an app, not on your cell phone, chances are it's not part of your life. how -- do you know how many jobs get destroyed? in that limited world, you're crushing many businesses while creating others. the businesses you crush require traditional jobs that don't require a computer science degree from stanford. this is the world we live in now. it's a world where the fed is trying to figure out what it can do to spur conversation. welcome to 2016 no one is ready for it, and everyone's stuck in it. i described the challenge for so many employers and employees many i want you to think about it tomorrow when janet yellin testifies again tomorrow.
no president will probably ever understand, when you have secret service protection, you use uber, you don't have to buy any of that. you wonder why we have low inflation and no growth, it's all zero sum. of the 2016 economy, these n these here united states. put some distance between you and temptation
entire solar panel and then battery in your house operation. 40% of the float of solar city is sold short, so you can expect the big spike in that, and the decline in the stock of tesla. also after the close, adobe, a lot of people freaking out. the stock happened to have a remarkable run from where it was in february. i still like it, kb homes, i told you there's a core value there, and i'm sticking with it, tomorrow night, i'm going to see you from cnbc's bureau in san francisco. we're bringing you some amazing things, it's all part of our invest in america, defining the future series, i have to tell you there's some very special stuff coming up, that we have planned. i'd like to say there's always a bull market somewhere. i promise to try to find it just for you right here on mad money. i'm jim cramer and i will see you tomorrow.
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