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tv   Worldwide Exchange  CNBC  June 23, 2016 5:00am-6:01am EDT

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thanks, steph! no problem. even to friends in a growing number of other banks. ya'll ready to go? come on fellas let's go! easy to use chase technology for whatever you're trying to master. good morning. the wait is finally over. it is brexit decision day. uk citizens going to the polls right now determining their count rice future in the european union. >> investors around the world trading cautiously ahead of the referendum results as a vote to go could send shock waves through financial markets. >> the financial poll t politicians, the pundits and the all important british voter. we've talked to them all and have today's top story covered from start to finish. it is thursday june 23, 2016 and
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"worldwide exchange" begins right now. ♪ darlin' you've got to let me know ♪ >> good morning. and welcome to a special presentation of "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. i'm sara eisen. >> and i'm wilfred frost, we are live in london just across the river thames from the houses of parliament. the financial times poll of polls gives the remain camp a two point lead. the latest betting odds also favor remain. the implied possibility is 77%. weather undoubtedly will be a big factor. it has improved here in london overnight. it was pouring with rain, and severe flooding still in the south of england. weather expected to get worse again later today especially up in scotland. >> and the polls stay open till
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10:00 p.m. uk time. polls have been all over the place. our other guests of the morning. stewart wheeler. he's been a major political donor of the anti-european movement. 5:30 a.m. eastern. an tole clet ski. and and we're seeing markets rally around the globe. u.s. extend futures showing solid gains here in the early action. s&p futures up almost half a percent. dow futures higher almost 100 points. nasdaq up double digits as well. this after a second positive session in a row for u.s. stocks. as for the treasury 10 year note yield. crossing that 170 level.
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and the dollar, everybody watching currency as the 24 hour markets which will be the first to react. in the meantime as the british people go to the polls, the euro and the british pound are stronger. the pound in fact overnight reaching its highest level of 2017. strength against the u.s. dollar. keep an eye on the japanese yen though signaling caution as it is strong. >> the pound was above 148 earlier. no longer. it is just below that level but strong oren the day. european equities also stronger on the board. asia finished mixed with the nikkei up strongly. hong kong up slightly. the shanghai composite was just below flat. oil price, wti and brent. gold is up now nearly 8% in recent time periods. now the big story of the day.
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sara summed up beautifully. we've gone for the two red top papers. the two tabloids. independence day. clearly backing a vote to leaf. the daily mirror saying don't take a leap into the dark, clearly backing a vote to stay. sums up the question on voters minds today. 46.5 million people eligible to vote in this election. big question how many of them turn out. >> and how many of the undecideds will go towards either camp. there still is a big section. j.p. morgan suggests there are still 9 to 10% of those polled undecided. which will they go? with the more emotional? as we've heard. we've been on the streets over the last 24 hours. people saying they want to leave because we want our sovereignty back. we want the old great britain to come back. we need to be released from the chains of brusselss and the eu. and on the other hand, those
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looking down the abyss towards an independent uk outside of the eu and worried about what that means for wage, for the cost of vacation, and their travel plans. and for the overall british economy. that is what is at stake here today. >> absolutely right. heart versus head. leave versus remain and it is down to the british voter today. we'll have all the developments for you throughout the day here on cnbc. right. with the polls showing the brexit vote still within a narrow margin, a decent -- excuse me, a descendant of one of the uk's most --. sir winston churchill says that leaving would be a terrible mistake. [inaudible] he says it is likely many people have waited until this last moment to make up their minds on how they will vote. listen in. >> my big worry is a bielection
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where it is okay to give government a good kick this is not about that. it is about the future of this country. most important vote in my lit e littlittle political lifetime. >> tremendous job ensuring security across the region. i also asked if his grandfather winston churchill were here today how would he vote? >> my grandfather started his public life when queen victoria was still on the thrown. and he charged in the last -- using a sword. he served six of the kings and queens of britain and he was the present queen ice first prime minister. and 51 years dead this year.
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and if you were to put him here today does anyone really believe that in all that time with all his experience that looking out over a very unstable, phalange -- fragile, uncertain world we how would rarely think that is good idea for britain to cut itself loose from the continent which he had so often had to ride to the rescue. >> and of course this is very relevant because winston churchill by many is assumed that he would vote out. boris johnson wrote a book on him he's on the leave camp. interesting o the hear his grandson there saying he would vote remain. >> the british press calling this david cameron's churchill moment as he urges voters to remain in. joining us now one of the biggest donors to the anti-european union movement. stuart wheeler, welcome.
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good to see you. i guess you would agree that winston churchill would vote out? >> i would certainly vote out. winston churchill by the way said he thought the eu was a very good thick but that we should not be part of it. >> you are one of the biggest donors to the anti-european movement over your lifetime. how big a day is this for you? >> is this a day you have been waiting for all your lifetime? >> i think it is absolutely crucial day not only for me but the whole country. it is going to effect the history of this country as well as of course of europe for a century or more. >> are you feeling confident the vote -- >> confident will be putting it too high but --. i think they have a much better chance of that. >> what if you lose? what in britain does vote to remain in the eu? what happens to your movement? >> what happens to who? >> your movement that you have been funding and -- >> my movement.
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unless as the very substantial margin against us it will g just go on. people will discover that what cameron has been saying is going to happen is not going to happen, is largely lies and i think we'll before very long it will happen again. >> what do you make of mr. --'s comments yesterday that there be flo refo no em reform either way. >> you just said a moment ago you said the audios in the betting markets 3/1 underplay exit vote. you also founded ig index. what are the betting markets missing? >> i don't know. they may of course be getting something we don't know about it. there may have been secret polls or too early for exit polls but there may be something we don't know. but otherwise it is quite extraordinary that when the polls suggest what i think you
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americans say describe is too close to call, that the ods should be 3/1. it is is hard to say why that should be. >> i am not an american sir. >> oh. >> it is an american program and we're on american television. when you say that david cameron has been lying. what exactly do you mean? and why aren't you afraid of what would happen to the british economy on the out side? >> very good point. three days ago he was questioned by an audience and every question he really brought down to saying again it would be a terrible effect on the economy and that is why you have got to vote in. but the fact is there won't be a terrible effect on the economy. do know that the europeans sell 70 billion pounds or more in excess of what we sell to them. they cannot afford to stop trading with us. >> but it is a bigger percentage of britain's economy. those exports to the eu than
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they are for individual countries like germany and france. the uk a lot more dependent than europe on the uk. >> true because there are 500 million people and we are 70 or something. but nevertheless it is businesses that really will decide these matters. >> of course the campaigns now are down to the voters today. as you look back at the way the anti- anti-campaign has been run. how do you sum it up? >> i think we have done a good job. dominick cummings is very keen on not relying on one's own instincts but taking polls and everything like that to find out what the truth of the matter is and what people really mind about. and i think he's got to the bottom of it. >> do you know -- cheeky
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question, in total how much you have donated to anti-eu causes in your lifetime. >> yes i do know. but i'm not going to tell you. >> fair enough. -- history iic day for your cau exit cause. polls still too close to call. right still to come here on this special edition of "worldwide exchange," how public perceptions of the people in power has changed since the uk referendum campaign began. the damage david cameron's government has suffered no matter the outcome. >> and a list of u.s. stocks that could be most effected and most exposed to a brexit, as they have the highest percentage of revenues generated directly from the uk. we'll be right back on "worldwide exchange" ♪ i enjoy keeping people up at night. my analysis shows your stories are actually about human connection, even love. great storytelling needs drama and empathy. my cognitive apis can help any business
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better connect with its audience. you should try writing a book. find a remote hotel. bring the family. i do not think that is a good idea.
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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." we are live in london, just across the river thames from parliament. more now what to expect from this vote. top pollster joining us. ceo of ipsos. first question i have to go to is turnout. everyone knows it is going to be a big factor. is the weather going to change things? >> well the received wisdom is the brexit voters are much more determined and will come out
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even if there is ten feet of snow or water. the remain voters are less motivated. i athink if it goes down to a fw thousand votes you would say god decided it would rain. but i'm not actually expecting that. >> we've heard so many polls and reporting on so many different polls the last few days and weeks. your latest results. and how exactly your methods and how scientific it is. >> any poll, however it is conducted assuming it's been done well, everyone done perfectly is subject to margins of error about 3 or 4%. and the nightmare for pollsters is precisely this type of event. where the polls are rough 50/50. when we tell you 53% remain or leave. that could be 50% or 56% and often the media like to brush over that.
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but that tolerance is there actually on every number you quote. >> for u.s. viewers particularly tell us the difference how easy it is to predict a normal uk general election where we have geographic -- >> in britain with e use constituencies and the person with the most votes in the constituency gets to choose an mp. about 70% of the constituencies nothing happens because we always know the party ahead is so far ahead, everyone when tony blair swept a victory only a minority of seats changed hands. in theory it should be easier because every vote counts in a way that doesn't happen in a general election. >> the ftsi 100 is up again. it's been up a number of sessions. the british pound is now at the highs of the year. that is telling a different
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story than what your polls are telling. >> the polls tell us what people were thinking in my case the one we're about to publish, what beam are thinking yesterday. what the markets are doing is trying to predict what they are actually going to do today. and 30% of people even yesterday were telling us they might change their mind. we know one in ten might make up their mind in the polling booth, where it is illegal for me to go. so the markets are guessing about the future. the polls are telling us who people were thinking yesterday. >> talk us through the next 24 hours. when do you think you will have the answer? and what will you be looking for throughout thursday night? >> there are a number of key seats. to be honest you may as well go to sleep and not pay any attention until late at night in the united states because it won't be until about 3:30, 4:00 a.m. that we'll have enough of a clear. >> 4:00 a.m. local time in london. >> local in london and 11:00
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p.m. or so in new york. so it will be some time. and if it is very close it may even be later. if you see the bbc making some forecasts at 4:00 a.m. you can be fairly certain what the result is. but if there aren't any, all bets are off. >> it is going to be a long night for all of us here. >> it is. >> there's this narrate they've the younger vote is more pro eu and the older vote is more on the side of exit. >> absolutely true. older people and particularly working class older people are massively for leave. and younger wealthier people are massively for remain. >> although i did find a nice group of young blokes as the pub last nights and they were all levers. >> fancy that. what a surprise. and just quick. young people expected to vote remain. does --? >> there aren't enough there to materially make a difference but the issue is young people are just less likely to vote. so they get outvoted by the older vote. and the weather of course makes potentially that even more
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likely. so lots o play for. we'll see. the markets have already decided a remain win. but i think there is a 1 in 4 chance still on brexit actually happening. wait and see. >> thank you very much. ben paige, the ceo of --. still to come we find out what the people in positions of power and people in the pubs have to say about today's referendum. >> some deep dive reporting here in london. >> and drinking from sara. >> well i was just talking. you know i'm not a beer fan. here are some of the celebrities backing a brexit. we'll be right back on "worldwide exchange" live from london on the day of the british referendum. cathy's gotten used to the smell of lingering garbage...
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5:22 am her kitchen yup, she's gone noseblind. she thinks it smells fine, but her guests smell this.
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ding, flies, meow febreze air effects heavy duty has up to... ...two times the odor-eliminating power to... ...remove odors you've done noseblind to [inhales] mmm. use febreze air effects, till it's fresh and try febreze small spaces... continuously eliminate up to two times the odors... ...for 30 days febreze small spaces and air effects, two more ways... [inhale + exhale mnemonic] to breathe happy. second >> a lot of the opposition is i think rather romantic desire to return to a sort of 19th century past. plus the hostility on the huge issue of immigration. >> the time to stay in and continue to benefit from european membership, not leave. >> we'd be back in charge as
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opposed to having to rely on rules coming to us from the eu. >> i'm expecting the cameron government to be -- this is a heads up. and i expect them to focus on this anger. and i think best way to focus on thissing anner is creating more opportunity. >> brit seasain is better off o lifeboat than on the titanic as it sinks. >> it would be better for u.s. britain and global interests. i would note that great brit season the only free market democracy that sits at the four top tables in the world. >> brit season one of those countries that is in everything. we're in the eu, the commonwealth, nato, the g 20, the g p 7 and so on and gives us a tremendously influential position. >> the european union is basically a project that is moving more and more power away from national parliaments to brusselss and to the european union and elected commissioners. and we don't want to see that. >> the british exit would be the
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world's most expensive and most acrimonious divorce in history. >> i'll bet they don't leave. that is where i put my money down. >> you put your money down. how have you made that bet? >> i put my finger skmup just make a guess. >> the united kingdom isn't the only country with a future at stake. global alliances could change depending on the outcome. i spoke with the british defense secretary and asked how world leaders, such as vladimir putin, would want things to turn out in this vote. >> -- start to fracture. it is only through the european union for example that we've been able to impose sanctions on putin for his annexation of the crimea and his behavior in the ukraine. that was done through the european union. nato couldn't do that. the united states couldn't have done it on its own it was threw
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europe and only threw british leadership those sanctions continue. >> he says a brexit could weaken security in the west and also commented on the uk's strong relationship with the united states and washington's view on today's referendum. >> we are very strong allies of the united states. and the united states has made its position about this referendum pretty clear. that it does not want to see britain leave. >> and we've been hard at work here. from politicians to the average brit. wilfred got a chance to chat with voters to see how they are leaning as they head to the polls. have a look. >> i'm probably going to vote to remain. i think being part of the a bigger union is a big thing for me. >> i think it will be in. because i desperately need the sovereignty. and also i was pleased to hear that anybody who can come here
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has got to work for four years before they can take anything else. >> i'm voting remain and from economic point of view is better for economy. >> i'm going to vote for leave. i'm sure there will be an economic impact and initially it won't with very good but i'm sure we'll recovery from it. >> ie look at the eu and it is so corrupt and so wasteful. grave train just roaring around europe. and i think how can i vote for those people? >> definitely a brexit. main reason immigration. and i think we need to make our own rules not the eu making rules. >> i'm not going to decide until i'm thul in the booth. >> some views there from the all important voters. it comes down to their decision today. still to come here on the special edition of "worldwide exchange." this morning's top stories and market action. plus he says a brexit could spark a financial crisis on the
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scale of 2008. anatole clet ski joins us nexka. you can fly across welcome town in minutes16, or across the globe in under an hour. whole communities are living on mars and solar satellites provide earth with unlimited clean power. in less than a century, boeing took the world from seaplanes
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it is brexit decision day. uk citizens going to the polls to determine their country's future in the european union.
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>> investors around the world trading cautiously ahead of the referendum votes. >> the final poll, the politician, the pundits and the all important british voter. we've talked to them all and have today's top story covered from start to finish. it is thursday june 23, 2016 and "worldwide exchange" begins right now. ♪ i want to break free ♪ i want to break free >> good morning and welcome back to a very special presentation from "worldwide exchange" live from london here on cnbc. i'm sara iez rn. >> i'm wilfred frost. i have to give a shout out to the d.j. today. some great songs to splitting up. breaking apart. great choices. all eyes on financial markets around the world are on the uk today. let's check on the global
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markets. they are higher. enjoying a little more of a relief rally. the dow called higher by 197 points. significant leads. some talk the latest poll might have slipped through to some market participants so we're not ready to get the details of that quite yet. the dollar, the euro is higher. the pound also higher. a six month high. european equities up across the board. we've got the ftsi 100 up sharply 2%. 1.5% and the dax and cac up 2%. it seems like something has got to market participants in the last 20 minutes or so. we saw the nikkei close up, hong kong up. shanghai slightly down. >> could also be the british pound which is a at the highs of the year. that has really surprised people how that currency has taken off, given the fact that there is still a risk and the polls are
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very close as to how this will turn out. >> absolutely right. now we have a very special guest to discuss what a vote to leave could mean in the latest market expectations. we are going to do thatjust a couple of minutes time. >> shall we look at the papers? >> let's have a look at the front pages. >> clearly this is the last case plea. the daily telegraph adamantly urging british voters to vote out of the european union. the time has come. very dramatic front pages. dramatic and colorful. going with their three biggest arguments. boris johnson the most outspoken and familiar face on brexit. out is out. there won't be another deal. i am surprised i have to say since being here at the level of hatred for brusselss and for mr. yunger. >> mr. yunger does top the list
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no doubt about it. >> and ever since he brought up this idea about the european army there's been a will the of backlash what that would mean. and that in mind. julia chatterly is in brussels with a look at the story from that side of it. >> good morning sara. as you rightly said within 12 hours of the voting beginning the commission president jean claude juyounger and he may not the line that he's givening all the way long. it was if uk voters decide to leave, that is it. there is no further renegotiation. i.e. you can't use this vote as leverage for further talks or negotiations going forward. boris johnson at the leave campaign i think decided to misinterpret what he said there.
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david cameron has been saying if we stay in the eu we can renegotiate. we can't do that if we're not at the table. boris johnson said if david cameron thinks and says this renegotiation with can happen within the eu as the sham, a snare and a delusion. i this i whatever european officials say are going to be used by both sides in this campaign. but for my sense here they want to keep pretty quiet. because their big bet here is ultimately the uk is going to try and remain within the eu. and that is what they are betting on. >> julia. if we do see a vote to leave which, countries? which votes? which polls should we be looking at next as to whether similar things happen around the rest of europe is this. >> this is the really interesting question wilfred. because of course what i've heard in the last 24 hours is there is no plan b here. no one wanted to talk about a plan b if there was a brexit
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because they didn't want to influence uk voters. so it leaves the ecb ultimately on the hook in the short-term to try and provide liquidity and to address any ensuing panic. it depends which analysts you ask on which country is most at risk here. look at italy. over 50% of the population here supporting anti-euro parties. having said that they have got high debt. so you can kind of maybe assume here that they would be too worried to push things too far because they know they would get an attack from markets. i think you have to look at portugal. you have to look at greece as kind of bailout countries. we know portugal is backing from the reforms they have done. they have also got problems in the banking sector and i think of course france as well. election coming up. national -- risk. that is one to watch too. guys back to you. >> and some of the known unknowns. if britain does vote it. julia chatterly in brussels for us. thank you. and i've got to say as far as
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the european response by favorite, the winner goes to the german build report that is in one of the tabloids today. promising uk voters they will get rid of the sunscreen for sympathy of british tourists if britain votes to remain in. let's talk about other factors to watch out for and what might happen to markets if britain votes to leave. joining us is anatole kaletsky. good morning to you. thank you for joining us. >> good morning. thank you. >> let's talk about the potential market impact if britain does vote to leave. earlier this week george soros compared to it black wednesday to when the pound fell sharply and said the pound could hit 1 115. is that realistic? >> i think so. i thought the last two months really for the rest of this year the markets are more likely to be driven by politics than by
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any of the economic fundamentals really since things settle down in china and if you think, that call around 124 makes sense for this reason. right now the odds in the market are very overwhelmingly that actually brexit will not happen. the latest odds i was looking at were 80% britain will stay in and only 20% it will pull out. now if britain stays in the sterling probably goes up from 148 today maybe by about 5% to where it was trading before round about 155. that logically means that if the odds turn out wrong t loss should be about four times greater. so you are looking at a fall of about 20% which is what george soros described rather glaringly on the front page of the guardian. >> are people voting because they are worried about the economic side effects? or just fear of the unknown?
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>> no. i think it is very very clear what people are voting on. the people voting to stay in are voting on the economics. because frankly it is an open and shut case. it is very clear that in the short-term for the next two years the british economy and particularly the financial markets will unquestionably suffer. whatever you think about the long-term consequences, the next two years would be very bad. the people voting to remain are doing it for economic reasons. people voting for leave are doing for more emotional reasons, nationalism, dislike of foreigners. fear of immigration. and i think the general sense of arn angst we see all over the world. here it is the eu. and america it is muslims and mexican immigrants. >> and the what about other big
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currencies? the yen has been a bit of a safe haven. the euro hasn't reacted as much of the pound. what do you think of those? >> for the last month the gauge has been the pound. and the pound against the dollar. because that is the obvious way of betting one way or the other. but of course other parts of the world will be effected. the yen has you said has always been a safe haven. not so much for international investors but more the japanese drawing their horns in and pulling the money back home when there is a disruption so the yen would be bound to strengthen pretty much against over currency. probably even against the dollar. the euro is somewhere in between. the second order effect of a brexit vote would be on the euro. the first impact would be on britain. but it is impossible to come up with a the story that is
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positive for the eu or euro zone either from brexit. >> flows have y pleasure to have you with us. anatole. still to come here today's must reads. brexit or remain. no shortage of opinions in the papers today. >> before we head to break, a special weather report fro jen carfagno on what to expect here in the uk as rain is certainly a big factor as voters head to the polls today. good morning. sara and wilfred, of course watching the weather very closely today. i know we had inches of rain in some cases about a month's worth of rain in just a couple of hours here across parts of southeastern england as well as into london. now that big batch of rain has moved on but there is still the risk of showers and storms popping up today. this is our satellite perspective. the wright blues indicating some of the biggest clouds out there.
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that's moved on. but we do still have other areas that will pop into the afternoon and evening. in terms of today's forecast we're not done with the threat for showers and thunderstorms. we'll see that risk out there through the afternoon and evening although the big deluge of rain is over for now. but thunderstorms could still pop and just for the rest of the week into the weekend, rain is possible again tomorrow and then on saturday. that is a look at your forecast. i'm meteorologist jen carfagno from the weather channel. "worldwide exchange" continues after this.
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now to our must reads the stories catching our attention in the papers this morning. boy, there was a lot to choose from here in the uk. i picked financial times titled i have changed my mind on brexit. from a hedge fund manager. writing at first he didn't think it would be an economic catastrophe to leave. enormous leap of faith at this point. to believe the country will be stronger wealthier and more stable if we stay in the eu is for me at least no long fler question. so a complete rethink here of a successful hedge fund manager. he's thought about the financial and economic issues how much
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damage it would cause the british economy to leave. he says no. can't take that leap of faith. >> and i like arguments from people who change their minds. it is well worth reading. i i've gone for fwrun the times editorial board. the day of breckening. tomorrow jean claud juncker will convene a meeting with the presence of the european council and parliament if by then it is clear britain's voted to withdraw the mood will be somber. if the signs is britain has chose on the remain the temptation may be to call an early aperitif. and -- why he's not the most popular member of the european council here in.
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>> well he's been threatening. he's been threatening. out is out. i've got another one for you. brex palat. the living in australia british people. actually a significant population. >> if we are have more separations across europe i want. still ahead, sectors that have the most to gain or lose depending on the outcome of today's uk referendum. plus once the vote is over there are plenty of other global worries waiting in the wings. we'll talk about that. stephanie flanders coming up. you are watching cnbc live from london first in business worldwide.
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today is the day the british people are heading to the polls to decide their destiny within
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the european union. and that includes some of the biggest names on both sides of the debate. earlier this morning, david cameron cast his battle. we know which way. he is voting to remain in. he has made final rallying cries over the last few days in 24 hours. we'll keep an eye on that for you and of course the polls close 10:00 p.m. tonight so we're live with you throughout. we're also approaching the top of the hour so that means the team is getting ready for a special "squawk box"? new york city. becky quick joins us and both wilfred and i are very excited to join us with some updates from london. >> we're excited to here from you too. a big day. you are both there on the ground so we'll be gets updates at least every hour to see what's happening. we have a lineup of guests here as well to weigh in on the brexit vote. obviously it is a little too close to call at least based on the polls we've seen.
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bob hormatz is going to be our guest host today. he can give us a the broad perspective what it means politically and from the market perspective also dr. dick koefs vick to give us a outlook on what this means for the financial industry and how this may go depending how the vote goes down today. plus hearing from john taylor. with the hoover institution. he is obviously someone who knows the in ands and outs on the economy. and brexit not the only story. continuing to follow the campaign here in the united states for president and we do have steve -- on today. the national finance chair for donald trump. so we'll be talking to him about how he's going to be planning to raise money, some of the chain challenges the campaign's faced to this point and what he plans do to change that. and of course it is a huge day in terms of scott cone going to be joining us to talk a little
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about the states. the top states for business. something we do every year. we'll be look at not only at brexit but things happening here in the united states. >> see you soon. thank you very much becky quick from "squawk box." joining us now with a view on the markets. stephanie flanders. j.p. morgan asset management. with the pound at highest levels in 2016 it's been a little odd for us to watch the wall street action from here when it seems like a lot of people we talk to are very passioned and angry and want to leave is there a disconnect. >> >> the uk is divided geographically in terms of its economy with a lot of the economic strength of the city and the financial center and the southeast generally not reflected in other parts of the country. so i think if you just did spend
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all your time in london you would get a skewed view. and of course people here, many from all parts of the world have a particularly cosmo politan attitude. much like new york and probably unlikely anywhere else in the world. and again you can get a skewed idea. i think this is one of the things the elite and the government has been caught short by how tight this fight has been. >> -- things like the british pound and other risk skets have reacted too much to some of the swings edwards remain. >> i think there are dangers in the rally we've seen but it is neville wh inevitable when you have a binary outcome. if the vast majority think it will be a remain vote then all of those people in the markets will act on that even if everybody thinks it will be close. everyone has always said it is going to be very close. down to turnout. but most of them say we think
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britain will vote to remain. and. >> and i guess the question is how much of that is already reflected. jeffrey gundlach overnight commenting that european equities would be a sell if britain votes to remain inside the eu because they have priced it in. >> we have already clearly seen a lot of rally we might have seen tomorrow. i think the downside risk is there though. ironically we could have much more volatility tomorrow if it was a brexit result because of this rally in the last few days. if, you know, i find it hard in a way to believe that the markets wouldn't rally tomorrow if we get that remain vote. but i think there is certainly something there that you wouldn't necessarily expect a vote which is in line with most expectations. >> and stephanie. we saw a picture late last night
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on the financial terms --. what sense are e you getting from your clients in the uk when you ring them? what are they expecting? >> i haven't found them cueing up on the streets. i think there were some old things ands a a bit of war gaming by bank whose want to be absolutely prepared for anything that happens tomorrow. i think buyers always want to take a longer term view and try not to get caught in short-term volatility. so certainly we've just tried to risk off the table and avoid the short-term issues that might arise over the next few weeks. but no we haven't seen a lot of of panic selling. concern but no panic yet. >> we have been talking about the rally in stocks. we should mention there are signs of caution. the vix, for instance, which of course helps protect you against future swing and a bet on
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volatility has been surging and is near the highest levels of year so there is an air of nervousness. >> yes. that is palpable and you can see a it in a lot of the price movements in the volatility measures. as i said most think it is going to come out on the right side as far as the markets are concerned. but no one has any real confidence in that. just you cannot be sure which way is it is going to go. >> stephanie, do you think markets have ever been quite so focused on an individual vote as this one? >> you know, it is always hard to look for parallels. if you think back to the euro zone crisis there had been enormous focus on particular summits or particular nights when deals were being done. there's never been such a focus on a referendum vote, except perhaps if you think of referendum votes --. that was. >> there was a brexit vote before there was a brexit vote. >> there was indeed. stephanie flanders of j.p.
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morgan asset management. that is it for "worldwide exchange." "squawk box" is coming up next. we'll be here in london. >> all day, august all night. show me movies with romance.
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good morning. it is finally here. says here the wait is over. the uk, you know this by now i hope. heading to the polls to decide whether to leave or stay in the european union. we'll bring you live coverage from london. also expert analysis from around the globe. watching the response in the stock market. a broad rally is under way in europe and u.s. equity futures are trading sharply higher with the british pound about 148, the highest it's been. all this just in the last hour. we have a full run down straight ahead. and back here at home, democrats
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staging a sit e ing ing a sit i congress. >> live from new york where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box." good morning everyone. welcome to "squawk box" here an cnbc i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. u.s. equity future this is hour, dow futures up about 168. s&p up 19 the nasdaq up by 46. all coming after polls, the latest polls released seem to indicate the stay camp has a lead. the ugov times poll has the stay camp ahead. daily mail says stay is ahead by six percentage points. and bet fair is now saying there is a 78 probability that


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