tv Squawk Box CNBC June 23, 2016 6:00am-9:01am EDT
staging a sit e ing ing a sit i congress. >> live from new york where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box." good morning everyone. welcome to "squawk box" here an cnbc i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. u.s. equity future this is hour, dow futures up about 168. s&p up 19 the nasdaq up by 46. all coming after polls, the latest polls released seem to indicate the stay camp has a lead. the ugov times poll has the stay camp ahead. daily mail says stay is ahead by six percentage points. and bet fair is now saying there is a 78 probability that the uk will remain after the latest
polls. you can see that what's been doing not only here but overnight in asia. let's look quick overnight in asia up see the nikkei up about 1%. hang sepg up about a third of a percent. the trading in european equities right now where the polls are open in the uk. you can see the dax, the cac up about 2%. the fooths up about 1.5. italy up about 2.3 and spain, the ibex about 1.7%. currency is where this is playing out. >> the undecideds. if you are undecided. the brexit people are like fantically brexit. the ones that are brexit they have been brexit all along. and if you are not decided yet you are not fantically brexit so you are a stay.atically brexit so you are a stay. >> what i worry about is -- >> worried -- >> the markets -- >> price --
>> -- caught all -- >> this is now an asymmetric risk at this point. >> 148 top pound. >> take look at the currency boards again. sterling -- >> -- round it up. >> 148.54. crude oil which the markets have been playing so much attention to. 49.84. >> across the pond now. the top story and polls are now open in the uk for that referendum on whether to leave or stay in the european union. and for our u.s. audience here are key times to watch. polls close at 5:00 eastern and at 8:00 we're expecting the first official returns and estimated about half of the votes will be counted by 10:00 or 11:00 p.m. eastern time. so keep it locked here on cnbc all day today and tomorrow for up to the minute coverage on the uk referendum. in the meantime we want to get across the pond and start with wilfred frost in london this
morning. wilfred. good morning. yes indeed it is polling day. all of those comments that we've been arguing over really go out the window. it comes down to the voters and how they decide. you just ran through some of the crucial times. we'll start to get as you said those early results at about 12:30 tonight in london, 7:30 p.m. in new york. and we should have the final result by about 3:00 a.m. friday morning new york time, about 8:00 a.m. here. which is also when london equity markets ipo up. the latest financial times poll, a two point lead for remain. sterling as you said hitting a high very recently. the last 20 minutes we've seen markets taken extra step up. that is on speculation that one remaining poll due out my nin. we don't have that data quite yet. let's have a look at some of these front majors this morning here in london.
the daily mirror saying don't take a leap into the dark. meanwhile the sun saying this could be independence day. two very clear different views and again we mentioned yesterday. do you go with the heart and back exit or with the head and back remain? a lot of people deciding themselves today and yesterday i did catch up with one person who's heritage everyone wants to know about. sir nicholassomes. the grandson of sir winston churchill. sir nicholas a conservative party mp, his grandson i asked how he thought his grandfather would have voted if he was around today. >> he 51 years dead this year.
and if you were to put him here today does anyone really believe that in all that time with all his experience tham looking out over a very unstable fragile uncertain world he would really think there was a good idea for britain to cut itself loose from the continent which he does so often have to ride to the rescue. >> so there is the view of sir nicholas soames about how his grandfather winston churchill might vote. i'll bring it back flow to what to expect today. 46.5 million people are eligible to vote in this election. last year's uk general election turnout was 66%. turnout will be a huge factor. the weather has been poor overnight. flooding in southern england. is's cleared up here now in
london. scotland is expected to be very heavy rain this afternoon. turnout is going to be key of those 46 million people. it is all to play for still in london. >> okay. wilfred. we appreciate it. we're going to check back with you of course throughout the program and throughout the day. you are going to be with us back and forth. so thanks. what do you think? >> u, 2,000 is not 48 million. but i don't know. >> i think the question with the polls in the uk and here is how accurately do they measure? >> we're not really using polls as much as. >> -- the past. >> betting market. >> and the stock market. >> and again who plays the betting market who plays the stock market? it is a much more elite oriented group of people who -- >> -- out yesterday that the betting polls there are there,
if you look at the -- if you break it down on the bets placed for or against, leave or stay, the leave camp wins. it is just an out size bets have been placed by a few investors who are betting on the remain. it is a different way of looking at things too. >> it is not like a big game either where georgetown or villanova. and this is different. there is actual data. i don't know. especially with the pound. 148. if it goes to 132 from 142 do 132 is not so bad. >> -- i any there is a loot mony more money that ride on that. >> other things happening. you might not think there are but there is a new ipo heading for wall street. tech firm twilio. we're running out of words to name companies. twilio priced at $15 a share. just above its targeted range.
this company provides phone and text message services to app developers. it will trade under the ticker twlo on the new york stock exchange. in washington they are calling it chaos. they weren't in the their chairs. they were on the floor and singing we shall overcome but different words. it was we shall eventually pass a bill or something. and demand on gun control legislation. representatives from both sides of the aisle were shouting at each other as the democrats refused to let republicans resume regular business. and paul ryan called in a publicist stunt. and adjourned the chamber until after the fourth of july and democrats continued to sit in even after the session was adjourned insists we get tougher
on the center of isis activity over in the middle east i think is what they are demanding. are we not? >> i didn't hear that. >> oh that is not -- oh. we'll get an update from john harwood. one piece of legislation that made it through the session, a 1.1 billion dollar funding bill to fight the zika virus. republican s passed the bill. democrats have protested the 750 million in budget cuts used to fund the bill. it faces a tougher battle in the senate. >> between the senate and house i would like to see them get this settled.
it's been months they have been wrappingal other there. >> the olympics. it is always something. salt lake city and terrorism. and i'll bet you once it starts that content is so -- it is just. >> it isn't about the olympics those it is about -- >> [ inaudible ]. -- rory mcilroy is not going. so and so is not going. you know, but i'm still saying i think people are gonna. >> popularity is still going to be there we think. >> still going to be there we the exactly. >> while investors await the outcome of today's vote in the uk. in the u.s., weekly jobless claims out at 8:30 a.m. eastern. at 10:00 a.m. you can look for may new home sales. forecasts have slumped nearly9%9 last month. and dallas fed president rob
caplan is speaking in new york about economic conditions and the role of economic policy. and we're joined by -- also in london we have. the markets at this point look like they are expecting that stay vote to come. what happens if they don't get it? >> i've long thought they will choose to remain at the end of the day. that they will follow the advice of the most famous playwright and rather bare those ills they have then rather fly to ers they kn not off. >> whoa.
>> indeed. i think they will choose to remain. if they don't i think no one knows exactly what will happen and it will start a long process which is hard to predict how long it will be and the outcome. i think they will choose o remain. ed. >> are markets priced correctly if they choose to stay? or would there be even more upside potential? if the vote goes more than 1 or 2% in the favor of the stay camp. >> as soon as it is over they will focus on fundamentals and i think there is mixed picture. if you look at big german companies for example they have a dividend yield two or three times what it costs them to issue debt. almost appears to be an arbitrage opportunity. at the same time there is weak growth still. in the united states we did get a disappointing labor report last time around. i think we are going to work higher over time but don't think there is going to be a large positive reaction as a result of
remain vote if they were to occur. >> we have seen volatility over the last week or two. as people really tried to figure what was going to happen. do you think this volatility has lot more room to run? >> good morning. as the very nervous day in london. whatever happens there slb some movement in price. even though the market is pricing for a remain. they are still pricing in some possibility, some probability, maybe it is only 20% of a brexit. and the relief when that possibility removes will improve or will at least call people to take off their hedges and move prices. >> kwhand of hedges ha s have y seen? how heavily has this been hedged? >> the currency has very much
become the battle ground. and what we look at there to get a sense is volatility measure there is the options market. and there we have seen actually it's come down a bit but last week we were seeing levels of volatility expected in the british pound that would mirror what we saw around the time of lehman's clasmts if there is a vote for leave we can expect considerable larger swings. if there isn't the there still will be a little relief rally. >> and back to fundamentals. if you look at the united states market fundamentally you take out the brexit but still have the central bank being probably the biggest weight that's getting thrown around in the market at this point. how do you look at fundamentals with the central bank so involved? >> well it seems pretty clear that the central bank is either because of their own will not going to be very gresz aift raising rates. maybe one more time this year but also the normal rate of interest is very low.
think think we're going to start to see earnings become a more positive story. we've been in a two year earnings slump. sequentially that's compared to the first quarter. the second quarter is going to be up 7 or 8% in earnings i think. and the second half of the year we'll finally get year over year earnings growth. if that is correct the better earnings story will provide a little fuel to drive prices somewhat higher in the second half. >> if you are looking are for 5, 6,% earnings growth where are we valued right now? >> valuations are difficult because we're really in a new world with interest rates at zero. i think we'll probably get returns in the mid single digits. i think that is more or less what we're looking for is continued returns and a kind of 5-7% range. >> doesn't sound bad given the year we've seen to this point. >> i think that is exactly right so politics and the market are smar --. can't be somewhere with nobody.
so where do you put your money? and i think 6% return out of stocks doesn't look too bad considering zero in you are why savings account. >> are you telling people u.s. stocks is the place to be right how to. >> i've been overweight in u.s. stocks for a while relative to the rest of the world by about 5-10% or so. i wouldn't be surprised if we end up shift hag in the future. valuation base the u.s. has a two poult multiple point premium over efa. at some point i wouldn't be -- >> going where? to the european stocks if the vote goes the way you expect it to today is this. >> yeah. into europe and potentially emerging markets which have their own difficults have bounced a bit this year but underperformed now for several years so it is a question of whether the macro stuff dies down so the fundamentals
valuation and earnings growth start to become more prominent you could start to see money flow back that way. >> what emerging markets do you actually like? some have been so tumultuous and some with very good reason. look at brazil. would you jump in there. >> i tend to look at broad asset classes and not so much individual countries. i think indonesia looks interesting. down the list each country looks different. india is promising in some ways but just lost the central banker and valuations are cut so each has a different quirk to the story. i think the playing if broad asset class. >> like mining stocks or something? >> just emerging markets as an asset class as opposed to picking individual countries or sectors within them. >> and thank you for being here. and tim thank you for joining us today. >> thank you. coming up when we return. democrats staging a sit-in protest in the house of representatives calling for a vote on gun control legislation. we've got john harwood going to be with us. and details next. plus a run down of the latest head lines from the campaign trail ence the thrill of
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but there was a couple of events yesterday. a donald trump speech and then a hillary clinton rebuttal to the speech that probably i don't know. just depends which newspaper you look at. but that was a pretty interesting interplay between the two candidates i think. >> you have a lot of action in politics yesterday joe as you elu alluded to. democrats decided to dramatize things yesterday with a sit-in on the house floor led by john lewis, the former civil rights leader who represents georgia in congress. they commandeered the house floor. paul ryan, the speaker tried to lose the c-span cameras that normally broadcast house action. the democrats protesting used periscope via twitter to broadcast and the tv networks picked it u. it was a chaotic
scene as the house was trying to get through a bill to fund the zika virus. let's take look at the action on tloor. >> gentlemen from texas with recognition. >> i send to the desk for the committee on rules for filing under the rule. >> resolution provided for consideration of the bill hr 4768. >> we have a motion at the desk. clerk are report the motion. >> don't see that every day on the house floor and finally republicans had a enough of it and adjourned two days early in the middle of the night after passing that zika bill, adjourned early for the fourth of july. now separately in the presidential race you had donald trump finally sponresponding to two big round house punches hillary clinton has taken. first on national security and then on the economy.
donald trump went after hillary clinton saying he's the one who can change washington because he's an outsider and she can't because she's been corrupted by the system. here is donald trump. >> the other candidate in this race has spent her entire life making money for special interests. and i will tell you she's made plenty of money for them. and she's been taking plenty of money out for herself. hillary clinton has perfected the politics of personal profit and even theft. >> theft, that is a pretty strong charge. hillary clinton later said donald trump was going after her personally because he can't compete with her on the issues. to be continued, joe. >> do you think? >> yeah i think so. >> what month? st? we'll get through this brexit thing, john and then we'll see. and then we'll see. keep me updated on that -- it is like 130-some days. as every day passes we can mention what the actual number
is. i think it is 130-something. do you know? >> we did joe have a much more sedate donald trump in the wake of -- >> nice haircut too john. >> him or me? >> your hair always looks nice. him looked a little neater than it has. boris johnson on the other hand. i love this. did you see this? it looks like gary busey versus colin firth. doesn't it? i love those two guys. that is gary busey. did you see? >> that would match the mug shot. >> it looks kind of like you. >> people say gary busey kind of looks like me. kind of true. which means gary busey a lot better than looking then most people think. john thanks. are you going to be back with us this morning? or it is all brexit all the
time? i'm not sure. >> depends if i'm invited. i don't know. >> we'll see. i'm gonna put in a good word for you. see ya. >> when we come back the future of yahoo. a company preparing to sell its core internet biz. we'll talk to chief operating officer dan roczen swag is woma, with new cabinets from this shop, with handles designed here, made here, shipped from here, on this plane flown by this pilot, who owns stock in this company, that builds big things and provides benefits to this woman, with new cabinets.
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welcome back to "squawk box" everybody. our top story this morning, the polls are now open in the united kingdom for the referendum on whether to leaf or stay in the european union. the polls will close at 5:00 p.m. eastern time today. and then at 7:30 p.m. we're expecting the first official returns. it is estimated by about 12:00 a.m., midnight, we should see about 75% of the votes that will have been counted. that may not be enough to really know at that point. and around 3:00 a.m. we'll see the final results. stay with us through today and tomorrow morning so you can get
up to the minute results. right now looks like the markets are betting the uk will vote to stay. you can see right now the dow futures are up about 173 points above fair value. the sterling market looks very strongly like things are continuing to gain. if you check things out you will see that if we were looking at currency right now you would see it just broke. the pound is now above 149. that is the first since december of last year. 149.19. time for the executive engine. we're focusing on tech topics this morning. ceo of cheg also the former coo of yahoo. red eye you just came back?
>> i came back from london. spent a week in london. >> so having been there. before we get into the whole tech scene. you were in the center of london where i know it is a little more elitest than elsewhere. did you get a sense of the remain versus the out. >> it is as tough as people say and it is really interesting because it breaks town by age groups, breaks down by wealth groups. breaks down by region. so the north will probably vote to leave. the south which is london will probably vote to stay. the truth is nobody knows the impact and part of the challenge has been that they have done a really terrible job of articulating since they have been in the union why it's been good for them. >> what does the british tech community think of this. >> thinking beyond just the borders of the uk. anything that makes it easier to go pan european is something that the uk tech community will
want. the community is extraordinarily vibrant. you have a whole entrepreneur scene set up where they have been engaging with young entrepreneurs and tech entrepreneurs, wringing them into the palace, introduce them to large corporation, venture capitalists. they have created hundreds of jobs and they get funding and get them into the supply chain. very similar to silicon valley. very similar to the new york tech scene which is they have ambitions well beyond london and the uk. they are the community that would stroet stay? >> silicon valley. everybody wants to be silicon valley. who is number twoun in your mind and number three? as everybody tries to compete to be effectively the number 2 to silicon valley or recreate silicon valley. >> there is nobody even close number two at the moment. each of the community, the largest tech communities beyond that are new york right here. and you have a lot of companies here.
oscar, c cadre here. and. >> i lev here. seems insignificant. to google, facebook. >> all the silicon valley is an entire industry dedicated to one thing. you have two streets that are all the money. two streets that are all the students that are coming out. so the whole town exists around tech entrepreneurialism venture capit capital. europe has so many different constituencies but it is much larger than silicon valley based on the number of people. the entire city of san francisco is -- new york would be second. london is probably third and london is the one that are organizing that are really trying to make it a silicon valley or something like it. it will be different. it lsh culturally different lew the critical mass of engineers and money is all in silicon
valley. >> yesterday said it is going to be much more difficult to do business in the eu if brit season not there at the tablains not there at the table. >> true. the fact of the matter is you have to deal with all of the local laws. imagine having to do which we do here with all the local tax laws. and if you have to go back to that in europe it will be really difficult. it is not just the exchange rate. just the ability to hire -- >> much more aggressive about regulation. than maybe some of these tech companies would want. >> true. >> think about what's happening to -- >> google. the truth is the focus has been on google or microsoft. so -- >> hazen't -- >> hasn't been the smaller companies. >> do you think that's been to protect the smaller companies? do you get that sense?
>> me personally? >> yes. >> i can't figure out half of the reasons they go after things that are five years ago issues. the issues are more about messaging and the future that we're doing. regulating google on desk top search doesn't feel as important to me as it would have been ten years ago. today it is about the messaging system, the communication, ai, all things they are not focused on. so i do get the sense they focus on the larger companies in the spirit of trying to help the smaller companies but i don't think it is going to matter. >> real quick your name made some headlines recently because you hooked one the dan gilbert. >> i didn't hook up with him. i work with him. >> you work with him. i wasn't saying it in that sense. >> -- very handsome man. >> not that there's anything wrong with that. >> -- he of course bidding on yahoo with some financing support from warn buffett.
another name. you use tods work at yahoo. what is the future of yahoo? do you think it can be an independent company? >> i think it is not going to be an independent company and having to be sold. there is so much momentum with the sale and so little momentum in hiring and so little momentum in the core business. and i've said it before. it needs a fresh start. it needs to be out of the press. i've never seen a company with such a small market cap get so much coverage. look it is an enormous asset. but it right now it needs a focus of what is it going to be five years from now? the internet still can benefit from a large front door. there isn't one really. we've moved to the app kmurnt. messaging app, social apps and searching apps and travel apps but there is really no front door to the internet. there is no place to start other than the specific function. >> you go to google for search
or something. >> yeah. and so it does attract in the u.s. about 800 to 200 million users. 2/3 of the u.s. population still uses it. the question is how the you turn the business around? it has audience. it is not get the value out of its audience that others are clearly getting. that's been the issue. i do think it is a powerful asset and can be improved i just think in the current circumstances -- >> out in the open? meaning it has to be private or merged with another asset? >> it doesn't have to be any of those things but i've been gone ten years. it's had six ceos. three active investors. one hostile take over and a partridge in a pear tree. nobody's had the time to just build the company. and i'm not saying the people running it have been making the decisions. let's not confuse the two. i'm just saying look at all the
discussion. it is hard to attract ploys and hard to keep them. and hard to convince them to stay. and how do you pay them and -- >> -- one of the things they say over and over again. marissa would say just give me more time. give me two more years i can get there. >> i'm not looking to defend or not defend anybody. that is not my point. my point is it is a great asset that with the right time and the right investment can be much stronger -- >> finally you think it is fixable? >> i believe absolutely it is fixable. >> could be -- geo cities? >> geocities is one yahoo bought before i got there. >> there are other internet stalwarts from the late nineties that have gone. >> but they all come back. today we've got every single seamless -- >> amazon, google. >> you have the big five. apple, microsoft, facebook,
google. you have those guys that are -- >> -- as you say. >> yeah. >> it's got over a million -- a billion users. >> e-mail account. >> i have a yahoo e-mail account as well. the difficulty is too many people use it as the spam e-mail account. the difference is how do you get them back as the primary account? >> and there is a title on an article i was reading the higher education bubble is about to burst. what does that mean so we know? >> well let's look at the numbers. you have a trillion dollars spend. 1.3 trillion dollars in debt. the class of 2020, the class that just got admitted now is the class that was born the year google was born. so it's only known the internet generation. >> most of them have never called a landline. >> one out of five. and one out of six has ever submitted a handwritten paper. the point is this industry has
been designed for looking backwards not forwards. this generation is on demand. thinks it should be lower cost. this is fascinating. high school users about 25% more than college users which is about a hundred percent more than parents feel you can learn just as well online as you can offline. so yes there is a bubble. too expensive. it is not relevant to the job skills of today. the debt is too high and people are going in and failing out. so every variable there suggests it is going to burst and what we're trying to do is supply all the different things the students need. get into college, reduce the debt, pay less, get a better grade. internship, job. tutor. cheaper books. all of those things matter. it is astonishing to me. still at the a state zpool you bought new books the cost of the books are 25% of the cost of tuition. it costs as much to buy books now as it did to go to yale 50 years ago.
the cost of money is moving in the wrong direction around higher education. >> thanks for coming in. >> anything for you andrew. you know that. >> go raiders. thank you. all right. coming up. we'll head out to the big yard, the so called social center of every prison. beyond sports, exercise and leisure activities the rec area is inmates come together. >> nobody's out there yet. we're going to be the first ones on the playground. >> it is where alliances and formed and unfortunately andrew where a lot of zut disputes are settled out there in the big yard. and just in case for newly arriving inmates sit back. >> who's going to get my fork. >> i'm always worried i'm going toshived on the set as is.
>> every prison has its own culture. unwritten protocols. geographic areas and if you are going to play pool just know there are usually certain guys that get to go first. also to do the weights too. >> just like squawk. >> yeah. just like squawk. so there it is. when we come back we'll be out there. you're squared now. you got like a nervous feeling. orange is the new black. it is a jungle out there. anyway, when we come back, the brexit effect on stocks, currencies and the emergency market. later we're going to tackle the political imp cakes of the day's referred with kevin hassett & in a world held back by compromise,
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there it is. welcome back to "squawk box." we just showed you the front page of some of the london papers on today's brexit vote. u.s. equities are sharply higher now. up 180. and the european market --. joining us how a brexit might impact the markets. mark chandler, global head of brown brothers. and more. mark, i'll start with you. because we're putting i know the betting market is in u.s. presidential elections and other areas it always seals these leak gam pl gamblers have a good idea of things. but foreign currency is not that different and 149 on the pound
doesn't that ice a remain vote? doesn't that mean it is going to be stay? or are we set fup ar bigger drop. >> we're warning clients today that there is a risk that the referendum ironically despite the build up now becomes a bit anti-climate tick. a week ago we are trading 140.10 and now 149. in the last days we've seen risk come back on. and we've had big van advance in all the major currency this is week except the yen. i think the market is really pricing in what the polls are tell us is very close but the markets are saying the remain is going to win handily. >> that was interesting what you said. because even if you get a remain, suddenly the world is not perfect. and some say it really solves nothing. and i saw somebody was saying it is going to be a feel of a dark
dreary rainy day when you realize you get what you want and you are actually going to stay in this mess and then i can't imagine 149 holds. >> i'm thinking really that the fast money, the speculative money, the leveraged money, the gamblers. they have responded. and the slower money, the people managing our pension fund, life insurance assets. we don't want them to be responding quick to the headlines and stuff so they are going to take a little longer to get reinvested into the uk market which might offer bit of an underlying bid for uk assets as that he has managers get back involved. >> oil in a second jack. but to michael quick. some people do think the gold trade, i know it well, it started about 1210 it's moved a fair amount that there is more left in it given what's happening right now. do you think people should stay long gold? >> i think it is a bit asymmetric. what's interesting is the smart
money a as they say in quotation figures. the commercial traders are quite net short. the financial specters are long. we've seen gold dmom in while the currencies are rallied. i would guess you have an asymmetric risk here. if we stay markets probably end up -- gold probably ends upcoming down a little bit. if we leave i think you get a spike up. >> yeah. so brexit notwithstanding. just -- >> correct. >> okay. but let's not talk about it for a second. just talk about central banks and yellen and everything else we talk about. .8% gdp. whereas the outlook for gold right now? >> i think the long-term outlook for gold is pretty drooer honestly. gold act as a couple things. one is a hedge against let's just say incorrect central bank policy, or policy that is competitive devaluations around the globe and gold is the one
currency you can't competitively devalue. so i think folks have a large position there. the other is for insurance effect against inflation. and we're still in secular deflationly mode. i don't think there is a feckle continue to competitively devalue. >> who doesn't think that? anyway -- >> it's a fair point. >> jacques, i don't know -- brexit? speak about the energy complex in terms of brexit. once we get through this, what's going to dictate? >> this is definitely a small piece of the energy pie. i think what you really need to focus on is what's changed this year. and what we've seen is that there has been a very strong correlation since 2011 between inventories and oil price. this year oil price bottomed and inventories peaked. >> i guess, you know there's two sides to oil, and that's supply and demand. i am not sure which is -- i guess everybody is focused on
supply but demand is staying consiste constant at low levels. that's where it plays into the demand things. supply, does it come back at $50? does it make sense for people to turn things back on? >> i think you are hitting the right points. if you think about what's going to happen this summer. the world uses more oil in the second half of the year than the first half of the year. expectations for record gasoline demand. on the supply side we have got significant disruptions in nigeria and libya. on the refining side, a lot of maintenance. we'll ramp up refinery production. if you pull them all together. higher demand, lower supply, you see a gradual draw-down in inventories. that's a positive environment for oil price. >> thank you, trading block gentlemen. i bet you later today with the brexit thing, what do we get up to? >> eight to ten box of people
like nodding and -- anyway, thank you. i don't know. >> a lot of opinions out there. we're trying to harness as many as we can today. >> gauge the seriousness of the story. when we come back this morning, the french government taking on amazon over a new delivery program. we have the details after the break. you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc, first in business worldwide.
welcome back to "squawk box" this morning. we're talking europe. a lot of europe this morning. brexit. a different story here. france is taking on amazon. the prime service launched in paris last week. a local mayor in paris saying amazon told french authorities about plans for the delivery service only a couple of days beforehand. in a statement, she said the operation risks are, quote, seriously upsetting commercial balance in paris. the mayor said protections need to be put in place to prevent unfair competition between amazon and local businesses. you have heard the story before. >> yeah. >> heard anecdotally other stuff about -- interesting. you have more than 50 employees. free lunch. >> a lot of rules. relative to here. coming up. state department official will be our guest host. he says, even if britain votes
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welcome to a special edition of "squawk box," live coverage of the british vote to leave or remain to the european union. we'll bring you the latest from london, expert analysis from around the globe, and reaction in the markets. it's thursday, june 23rd, 2016. and "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ come on and let me know, should i stay or should i go ♪ >> live from the beating heart of business, new york city, this is "squawk box.." welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc, first in business worldwide. i'm joe kernen along with
rebecca quick and andrew ross sorkin. the polls are open now because, you know, it's earlier -- or later in the u.k. we're counting down to the close of referendum. we might have a good idea before going to bed tonight. 7:30 to 8:00. >> that's the first stuff. by midnight you'll still only have -- 75% by midnight. if it's a close vote. >> 149 british pound blowouts. >> depends which districts are turning in the vote. a look at european markets right now, which are, wow! they've caught up, really, with what's happening here. most of them up over 2% except for the ftse 100. across europe, strong markets. check out the futures. the futures here are what -- i didn't see us. 200? >> 175. >> 20 on the s&p. 43 on the nasdaq.
and we still look at oil. might be better to look at the foreign currency. we'll take a quick look at oil. back just under $50 on wti. >> obviously the brexit vote dominating investors' attention this morning. investors will have a few economic reports to consider while they await the brexit results. the labor department will be out with its weekly report on initial jobless claims at 8:30 eastern. the government will release the may report on new home sales at 10:00 eastern time. ousted is viacom directors can remain in place following a ruling by a delaware court. the judge said the five directors removed by sumner redstone can stay until a final ruling on red stone's competence. bed bath and beyond came in with earnings short. 80 cents a share.
comp sales down by half a percent and the expectations were they would be up. the stock is down 3.3%. developing news overnight out of washington that's in all the papers. democrats took over the floor of the u.s. house all day and all night demanding a vote on gun control. they even used their chairs. it's called a sit-in. they were actually sit on the floor. despite the sit-in the house is adjourned until after the july 4th holiday. democrats are still there protesting. singing and stuff, "we shall overcome" with different words. house speaker paul ryan calling it a publicity stunt, in his words. what did "the daily news," the daily snooze, the paper worth -- costs more to buy a copy of the paper than the whole company is worth. they said nra's lap dog. heel, paul, heel. good boy.
typically understated, the nra. or "the daily news." you like that? even the "new york times" at least pretends not to be quite -- right? >> no comment. no comment. let's talk brexit. polls are open in the u.k. stocks higher at this hour. big focus on the sterling and the currency markets. sara eisen joins us with more across the pond. good morning. >> reporter: good morning, guys. clearly global investors are optimistic. here in london we have encountered some nervous people, including folks who have been lining up in the past few days at local currency exchanges to actually go in and exchange their british pounds for euros. and in some cases even dollars. we are not talking about a dash for cash or running to pull cash out of banks or anything, but it's more of a reflection of some of the dooms day predictions for the british pound if the british voters today vote to leave the eu.
clearly that's a bad bet because the british pound is charging forward as you were just discussing. 1.49, up to 1.4950. highest level of the year on optimism that britain will vote to remain in. in the last hour, a new poll showing 52% in favor of remaining in. betting odds continue to favor it as well, now moving past 80% according to betfair. why will the british people do this? amid continued debate over british. economics. sovereignty. we talked to one economist this morning, a former executive editor at the "times" here in london. here is what he said about the remain camp and the motivation behind it. >> people who are voting to stay in are voting on the economics because, frankly, it's an open and shut case. it is very, very clear that at least in the short term, by which i mean the next two years, the british economy and
particularly the financial markets are unquestionably suffer. whatever you think about the long-term consequences, the next two years would be very bad. >> reporter: clearly that's how investors are positioning right now. the german stock market, the dax on track for its best week since back in 2011. clearly the germans and across europe are watching what the british people are doing today, guys. wanted to share with you a cover of the most popular german tabloid, "the build" getting buzz here today, making a number of promises to british voters if they vote to remain. among them, they're willing to acknowledge that the third goal in the 1966 world cup final, england versus germany, is legit and crossed the line if britain remains in. some of the other promises include stopping to wear sun screen in solidarity with sunburned british people and
reserving towels for them so they can have the best positions at the pool. the german people are also willing to move their clocks back an hour to be on british time. clearly the european establishment and the mainstream papers urging the british voters. guys, there are still a good chunk of undecided voters here. maybe that, the acknowledgement of the 1966 world cup goal, will sway their opinion. as we continue to keep an eye on the weather here. back to you. >> sara, sounds like there is a lot of tongue in cheek in the german tabloid stuff. maybe they've had enough of the brits thinking they should get a second chance to negotiate this. >> reporter: right. you're hearing more at the elite level. buzz from the eu president saying out is out and suggesting that the brussels politicians at least, which are sort of despised by the leave camp here in london, are going to make it
very difficult for the u.k. if they do vote out, say when it comes to renegotiating trade and other economic issues. clearly that's been one of the key pillars of the leave argument that's been very popular here. we'll see how it plays out. >> wow! takes a tabloid to step out there, though. banning sun screen so we can be sunburned like the british. >> sunburned just like you. >> they didn't throw in free dental work for -- i mean, that's getting sort of nasty, isn't it? >> that's what i mean. there's going to be relationships that are frayed no matter which way this goes. >> sharing the recipe so you don't have to eat crummy english food. >> you're good at this. >> the eu exists so there wouldn't be world war iii caused by germany. bringing in new voices on how this could play out. gabriella sanchez. at jpmorgan funds.
richard bernstein, ceo of richard bernstein advisors, could be anyone. probably a thousand within a four-block area of where we are. he still will not adopt a middle initial. our guest host for the next two hours, bob hormats. you must know joshua bunker ramo. >> i do. our offices are almost next to one another. >> do you sometimes share thoughts on world events? he is a pretty smart guy. >> he is a smart guy. we talk quite frequently, though he is in china a good bit of the time as well. >> okay. so what -- it is brexit day. >> yeah. >> obviously. so i always want to get past brexit and say, what do we do then, but i guess we really can't. gabriella, what happens and how does it affect the different markets? >> the market is clearly believing that it's much more of a remain vote.
but we really think it's a very tight outcome. so that makes, due to the market movement this week, it makes tomorrow a very asymmetrical response. i think, if there is a remain vote, maybe we don't even see that much of a risk on pop in the markets. but if it is an exit vote, then we may see much more of a downside for the pound and generally speaking for risk assets. >> normally markets don't set themselves up for even bigger drops. from one -- people say the british pound could go to 1.32 if there was a leave. it was at 1.40. they don't run it up to 1.49 so all of a sudden is drops 17 cents. >> i agree with you, joe. the problem with discussing this is you can be proved wrong in the next 24 hours. very wrong in the next 24 hours. we have thought all along that they were going to stay because the economic consequences are not very good if they go, if they decide to leave.
i think everybody knows that. but i think that -- i think this is just another series of issues. again, i can be proved wrong in 24 hours. another series of issues that keeps people very nervous and on the sidelines. i think by this time next week people won't even remember what brexit was. >> you know, go to bob on this. it's almost like getting to this point where there is a referendum highlights some real problems with what's happening in europe right now. just that we are at this point. even if they do decide to stay, immigration issues don't go away. the feeling of the 47% that maybe loses, the people who want to leave, they're still mad. they still want to leave. it doesn't -- it doesn't settle things and it doesn't help cameron if it is a close vote. >> absolutely right. i think this demonstrates the intensity of the nationalistic, xenophobic, anti-immigration feeling that exists in the u.k., other parts of europe.
there are other groups in europe that would like to do the same thing. >> here. >> and here. a lot of the rhetoric that you hear in england, in the u.k., in favor of leaving is very similar to the rhetoric you hear from donald trump and his supporters. >> boris johnson is a trump pair. a lot of similarities. >> boris johnson and nigel farage -- >> there is a huge group in texas trying to do this. >> a text-it. >> it's real. there is a group that's almost modeling after the brexit idea. >> i'm sure austin would stay. >> yes. >> maybe merge with cambridge, massachusetts. >> the national front party. there are numerous parties across europe that want to leave the eu. the rhetoric in the u.k. is similar to the rhetoric you hear among trump and his supporters. pull back from globalization.
pull back from in their case europe. pull back from any immigration policy at all and turn inward. it's a turn inward away from globalization approach. you hear it in the u.k. and you hear it here. >> they stay and the fed will raise. the market sells off. >> then we go back to actual fundamental, right, for each market. >> fed raise if they stay? >> no. i think for july your question is right. >> september? >> the bar is incredibly high for july. but i think september starts coming back to the table. >> as we get closer to the election? >> even as we get closer to the election i think, if we continue seeing better economic data, better labor market data, consumption remains strong. i think september is on the table, but july is clearly a very, very high bar. >> just because we won't have enough data for them to say this was just a one-off week trend? >> exactly. janet yellen has made it clear in her speeches that she is concerned. >> i think rich wants to
legislate permanent zero interest rates. do you not? >> no. >> you want them to raise? >> i don't want them to raise -- >> ever. >> no, no. i'll try again. i don't want them to raise by date. i think that's very foolish. i think, if you look at history, the fed has always been very reactive. they have been a lagging indicator. i think this fed has tried to be somewhat of a leading indicator and has found it very difficult to be that. so now they'll resort back to being a lagging indicator. the more you hear about data dependency the more lagging they will be if that's the right way to say it. look, if they start to raise rates in september and in the fall, we're all going to say, what took them so long. the nominal economy will be revving up. we will see that. they will react to the strength in the economy. they're not going to do anything proactively. they're not going to normalize rates for the sake of normalizing rates. >> what do you mean they try to be pro -- you're giving them credit for one rate increase?
they voiced that they were going to be. >> look at what happened. >> i don't care what the markets say. look at paul volker. >> i don't think we're in a situation that's as dire as what volker faced. >> true. you are not talking about as dire of a situation. they raised a quarter point. >> the important thing to remember about volker was, at the time he was extraordinarily unpopular, right? he was not a long-term fed chairman. the politics were such that -- >> but that's okay. >> he is my favorite fed -- favorite fed chairman of all time. but i think that -- i think this fed is learning the hard way that being too transparent and too far out front is not good. >> it's good on the way down but not so good on the way up. >> the whole idea of the dots has shown that they're no better at forecasting than anybody else. >> drove home that point. we don't remember their economic forecasts for the past five years, which have been probably
100% too high every year. >> why did you want to tell people that you're as bad at forecasting as anybody else? i don't think it serves them well. >> staying, bob? >> i am staying, because we can't totally assume that brexit is not going to win. everything is saying that brexit is going to lose, they'll stay in. >> you'll be here until midnight, bob. >> the thing we have to remember -- one point -- one point to ponder is that this vote is a vote for divorce. the terms of the divorce will take two, three, four, five, six, seven years to work out. a massive long-term uncertainty. >> i am brazilian. so we add on a bunch of names. >> could you lend him one? >> i could. you can take silva. >> that's not bad. >> i like effen. richard efen bernstein.
jd powers initial quality report which measures problems with new vehicle owners, that report is out. joining us with the rankings and more is phil lebeau. good morning. >> reporter: good morning, becky. i hope joe is watching. >> he is. >> reporter: his beloved porsche is no longer number one. >> whoa! >> reporter: not like it's fallen off the map. it's dropped to number two. here are the latest initial quality ratings according to jd power. this is based on surveys people fill out after the first 90 days of ownership of a new vehicle in the last year. over 80,000 people fill out the surveys. kia is now number one in terms of initial vehicle quality just ahead of porsche, hyundai, toyota and bmw. kia has been improving its quality over the last ten years. sales up 4.3% this year. that's more than double the pace of overall sales in the industry. where is the improvement coming
from? not particularly when it comes to info tainment and in-car connectivity and cleaner launches of newer models. >> the new vehicles coming out are coming out launched very well. very well thought out in the design phases of their vehicle. >> reporter: now, i notice you didn't say anything about not seeing a big three brand among the top five. that's all right. there is good news, however, for the american brands. for just the second time in the 30 years that they have been doing this survey, all three of the big three saw an improvement in initial quality. and again, that's only the second time that's happened. by the way, the most improved brands? jeep and chrysler. kind of ironic about jeep given the headlines every the last week regarding the gear shifter. shares of the big three. the story we have talked about for some time. it's not really clear what it's going to take to get these stocks moving. but certainly whether it's better sales, better
profitability or improvement in quality, it's not resonating with investors. >> phil, i think it was like five -- might have been more than five years ago. i know we talked about it on the air. i had rented -- remember hyundai long ago? i rented a kia. it was an unbelievable car five years ago. smooth, nice in acceleration. i am not surprised. i am not worried. if you want a kia, you get a kia. people who are going to buy a porsche are not saying i'm getting a kia. who i feel bad for is bmw. they got hyundai and kia and another one ahead of them i think. toyota. if i were, you know -- i would be cracking the whip over in germany. >> reporter: for the european automakers, not just bmw. porsche has to worry about this as well to an extent. the problem is simplification of the in-car connectivity systems.
just because you can put a toaster in a car doesn't mean you should. koreans have learned this. that's one of the reasons the cars are getting rave review the. they've simplified it. it is easier to use for people. >> hyundai has come a long way, as -- hyundai. as some refer to it. it's come a long way, as has kia. >> you want a metaphor for globalization. that's it. five global car companies. >> amazing. >> it really is. 20 years ago you would not have seen that. >> we're not talking about tesla. we have to do that at some point. bad news if you're a flu myt mist user. you may have to go back to getting a shot. futures at this hour are rallying huge ahead of this morning. the polls closing in the u.k. on the brexit. i think it's still an asymmetric risk. on the downside.
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households. the decision could leave pediatricians short of the vaccine. cdc says about 30% of all flu vaccines given to children were the nasal spray. flu mist is owned by astra-zeneca and uses live but weakened strains of the virus to stimulate the immune system. i'm not sure what the latest study shows you. back to the needles for us. >> not a surprise, is it? >> no. too good to be true. >> you need the needle. you know the exercise machines where you hook up little things to your muscles and sit there? that doesn't work either. you have to do it. when we come back, a brexit war of sorts. kevin hassett of the american enterprise institute supports a brexit. aaron klein says the u.k. should remain. we debate the pros and cons of both sides right after this.
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top story this morning, polls are open in the united kingdom for the referredum on whether to leave or stay in the eu. for the audiences here in the united states. here are key times to keep track of. polls close in the u.k. at 5:00 p.m. eastern time. at 7:30 peyton manni.m. we'll e first initial returns. 3:00 a.m., final results should be announced, that's about the time some of the pre-market activity starts taking place in london. 8:00 a.m. london time. the markets at this point seem to be feeling fairly confident that things are going one direction, whether the smart money is right or not is anybody's guess. you can see right now the dow futures are up about 162 points. s&p up 18.5. nasdaq up by 40. a couple stories front and center. couple of earnings reports out this morning. blackberry reported a break-even
quarter. surprised analysts who expected a loss. revenue came in below estimates. gave a full-year loss forecast that is smaller than consensus saying it's on track for 30% growth in software and services this year. we'll see where that stock lands. also reporting this morning, consulting firm accenture. raised full year outlook on profit margin. tech company twilio begins trading today on the new york stock exchange. the share above the range of $12 to $14. twilio makes tools for app developers. >> makes a huge difference. twilo, twilio. >> by the way, the fact that they priced on the high end given everything that's going on in the ipo market -- >> maybe unless the range was already lower. >> too low. could be. >> you know what it does?
ever done a twilio? >> no. >> no idea. do you twil? >> i think hormats does. >> my wife is a techie. if it's to be done, she'll do it. >> we don't know if there is a verb. >> i'll ask her. she knows all this. the debate over whether britain should exit or remain in the oou.k. is not just being wad overseas. bringing in two u.s. policy makers. aei's director of research for policy, kevin hassett says they should exit. aaron klein says they should stay. kevin, most economists have said they think the u.k. should stay. why should they leave? >> people focus on the near-term disruption. the basic principle is that in the long run the u.k. has a choice. do they want to negotiate regulations and rules with all these failed socialist states in
europe, be on the hook to bail out the greeces and portugals and spains in the future, with almost unbounded obligation or go back to being adam smith's vision of a country that's free and prosperous. i would vote for the latter. you have to recognize this will be adjustment costs for sure. >> where do you think the costs are most likely to land? >> markets will be very nervous. they don't like uncertainty. there will be a lot of uncertainty of how it will work out. if you are an exporter or importer, people will be nervous. >> the british people, would they be biting off their nose to spite their face? that's the argument many are making. george soros and others have said this. >> the way to think about it -- suppose you had to negotiate all the rules that run your companies with, say, the communist socialist government that might be about to emerge in spain and that you and spain have to work it out and that's what you're going to do. or suppose you get to work it out on your own.
which place would you rather invest in? of course the place where becky gets to set the rules. that's ultimately the choice. the eu is spinning out of control. it's become a big regulatory monster and getting away from it is a good idea. i'm not all about the immigration thing that i know is one of the major factors driving the voters. if you look at the competition between governments that we need so governments have some discipline. then the way to make it happen is not to form a big government monopoly in europe to squelch the competition. >> if comment had to pass muster with msnbc. is that it, kevin? >> say it again, joe. i didn't understand it. >> never mind. i don't think i want to say it again. i'm already scared. >> aaron, that's an interesting argument. not the argument that's usually laid forth. what do you say in response? why do you think the u.k. should stay? >> i think kevin's argument is
interesting but fundamentally wrong. england needs access to the common market. they'll have to negotiate and deal with the regulations out of brussels and the european union whether they're in it or without it. the prime minister of norway says i wish i had a voice and seat at the table. kevin's logic will continually lead to breakup of states which i fear if there is a brexit. most polls say even if brexit passes within the u.k. scotland would vote to remain. we saw the scottish independence vote narrowly fail. ireland has had a unique period of peace and prosperity in part because they share a common border and market with ireland. is that in danger? things could spin out of control quickly if folks start to head for the door. >> kevin, what do you say to that? >> sure, i am for a common market. i don't want to have trade barriers anywhere. but i don't think like the u.s. shouldn't be thinking about joining the eu. i don't think canada should join the eu. we for sure should have lots of free trade, but i don't think
that, in order to have the kind of free market you need to function well we should all join the eu. >> there has been commentary from some eu leaders suggesting that they're going to play hard ball that there will not be a way to re negotiate some of this and it won't be an easy task, there will probably be punitive stipulations coming with it. >> there absolutely will be. this is a precedent-setting situation. in the u.s. we had a precedent where some states tried to leave and we played hard ball there too. >> you have to get in the back of the queue. >> most of the hard ball i could think of that would be damaging would violate g.a.t. it's not like they'll close their borders to imports. there are lots of free-standing countries on earth. a lot of them are doing way better than the eu countries. and they're doing it in part because the eu policies are so stupid. to get away from that -- in the end it has to be a positive for the economy. >> isn't the u.s. analogy a bit
stretched? the u.k. is part of europe, whether it's in the eu helping to make the rules or it's an island just off the continent. it's still heavily dependent on europe. and i think to have the notion that somehow, if you separate yourself out, you're not going to be governed by a lot of things that happen on the continent -- >> mexico is right on our southern border. >> we have nafta. >> i know. but no way we're going to share an interest rate. >> it's a very different kind of economy. >> or south america for that matter. >> the economies in europe are not all socialist. you have the biggest economy in europe is not a socialist economy. it's germany. >> that's true, for sure. >> there are socialists in there you're negotiating with. there are that too. there are a lot of governments changing hands in the next year or two that it looks pretty sketchy. >> we prefer to have a voice in setting the rules of europe rather than to be outside of it. second, if you want increased
trade opportunities, have you 27 other members of the eu that you can negotiate with, and you're in a free trade agreement with. and then you have 50-some countries with which the eu has free trade agreements. so you have a very large market. if you're talking about attracting investment, investment is much likely -- less likely to occur in the u.k. if it doesn't have access to all these markets, and they're not going to get a great deal from the eu when they leave, if they decide to leave. >> we should all get together. russia, china, have the whole human union, bob, and just, you know, make it totally global, which a lot of people would like to get there. why take another 50 years. let's just do it. share everything. >> people like margaret thatcher -- it makes total sense. europe is your closest -- >> let's do it with south america, then. bring in venezuela so they can share our currency. >> you're not talking about globalizing everything. >> some people are. >> talking about the u.k., which has europe -- >> you lull us into the slippery
slope. >> i know people like you. >> i'm with you, kevin. i'm proud of you. >> thank you. >> finally a credit to aei! finally. you come in here and -- >> kevin is a good guy. i know him very well, but i do think that the realistic thing is -- >> wake up and smell the brazilian coffee. >> wake up and smell what happens after the british leave. >> go ahead. >> i want to say, bob, you are talking about voice. imagine if, you know, when you're running a big financial institution, say, something you are familiar with, if you had to negotiate every single decision with 30 other people. or if you get to make the decision. which world is going to be a better place for you five years from now. so having a voice is not that relevant. i want to sing solos. i want to sing solos. >> i take your point but it's unrealistic. if britain leaves they'll have to have a prolonged negotiation with europe over terms of access
to get back in to sell goods and get a financial passport for the banks in europe. they'll have to negotiate with europe anyway. >> we have rules for all that. we have all this resolved. it's pretty easy to photocopy stuff and say those are the rules right away. >> that's unreal -- >> this story is so big, i think it's time. >> let aaron on. he and i agree. >> i am going to be out here in agreement with the "wall street journal." >> we've got it! finally, this is a prelude to later. all right. ronald mcdonald. i welcome him to the show. paris hilton. she is -- i think it's hot. who is the guy in the lower right? >> hey, "squawk box," it's hot! >> thank you. this will happen. i want aaron to jump in. go ahead. >> here is the situation where i am in agreement with the "wall street journal" editorial page. which i don't. europe is better off having britain. i don't often do it. europe is better off with britain's voice at the table.
they have to abide by their rules. it's unrealistic that g.a.t. and existing trade deals are enough. why isn't every county for itself. europe and the european union have served america's interest well. we have had peace and prosperity relatively on the continent of europe for 60 years. we had 60 years where that wasn't the case. that wasn't good for america. why are you playing with fire? >> oh, yeah. so now we're going to have world war iii because britain leaves the eu. that's a stretch. to go to the economic stuff. the kind of thing i'm worried about is think about all the regulation that you can have vary by country, like now the internet regulation varies by country. or you could impose central regulation which is something the eu is trying to do in that space. and then, you know, if you think about it, having big, centralized regulators controlling the regulation of something as important as the internet all around europe -- i am just saying i think i'd rather have competition between
countries setting the regulations. >> the economic logic of your argument is that all the european countries should break up. >> i would be for that, yep. >> guys, we have to leave it there. >> then you have 28 different sets of regulations. do you like that idea? >> total chaos before we had the eu. one more look at the octo-box. you'll see this later today, andrew. can we interview the guy below me? >> look down at him. >> hey, "squawk box." >> it's at 120, i think. >> does he speak? >> he does not speak. he doesn't speak. >> except in this case. coming up, both sides of the brexit camp neck and neck when it comes to the polls former chief of staff, former u.k. prime minister tony blair joins us in a bit. a look at european markets right now. "squawk box" will be right back.
underworld, come out of the cup board, boys and girls ♪ >> good music. we showed you the front pages of some of the london papers. u.s. equity futures -- i guess we should be happy that -- we like higher stock prices typically. be bad if it was down. be careful what you wish for. kevin hassett, if it leaves, then suddenly there is all kinds of, you know, chaos in the markets. i don't know if that's a reason long term to try to make this jury-rigged economic system eventually work, bob. most people who are pro-eu say, look, we did it, we've come this far. it doesn't work but we can't go back. that's about the best you hear from most people because it's such a flawed system. >> i think, if you look at it right now, there is no way they can stay where they are, which is to have their own currency and not be deeply integrated. >> it has to move forward. it's a big bureaucracy and it's very costly. no question about that.
the question is can you improve it and have a voice in improving it, or do you try to get out of it, in which it's still going to continue and will still be your biggest trading partner. but you won't have any voice in improving it. you won't be at the table. talking about the future, what happens at the moment, i think you're absolutely right. it will affect the market or not for a few days. in the british case it will affect it for several years because it will take a long time to figure out the terms of this divorce, a long negotiation under what they call article 50. in the end, for the u.s. and for britain and other countries, the hope is that britain will enable it to move in a more market-oriented direction, working with countries like germany. otherwise, the countries that want more regulation will prevail more easily with britain out. that's the long-term issue. thank you for that. we'll see you in just a second. when we come back we'll talk about stocks to watch this morning. and at the top of the hour, yep, we'll focus on financials and brexit. if you can imagine that.
blair during all of the tenures and is currently ceo of intermediate, a conflict resolution firm. welcome to the show. thank you for joining us. >> good morning. >> assuming there is no brexit, meaning the remain camp wins, the camp that mr. blair has suggested is the one that is right in all of this, what happens tomorrow? >> well, if the remain camp wins and i hope to goodness it does and in fact i predict it will win by a bigger than expected margin, then we'll be in a much safer place than if we go the wrong way tomorrow. if we go the wrong way it will be a disaster. if it goes the right way it will be a bit of an anti-climax. >> you don't see the from your and political discourse that's arisen as a result of this particular issue continuing in some way that we're not thinking about? >> i think it will continue inside the tory party. it's badly split on the issue of europe. the labour party has a small minority of people who are
brexit. the tory party, can they put themselves back together again after this vicious debate. you won't have the same impact inside the labour party. the tories have split in the past. there is a history of them splitting on these issues. more likely they'll put themselves back together because they're also a machine for winning elections. >> when you think about the idea of the exit, a true exit, right now the markets are up, there is an expectation that nothing is going to happen, that the remain wins. is there any fear in your mind that people in the u.k. where you are now expect that it's going to remain so that anybody who expects it will remain stays home? >> there is that possibility. the weather is very bad today. turnout may not be as high as people expect. this will be about turnout. a high turnout. more likely remain wins. a low turnout, we may have a
brexit vote. traditionally -- ukip won the last european elections. if the turnout is low, it's possible that we lose and will have a disaster on our hands. i hope the betting odds are right and remain will succeed in the end. >> given your perspective and where you sit, the foreign policy impact of a brexit. not just the economic one but the foreign policy one. >> yes. it's funny. people have not been talking about that much during the campaign. it's been about economics or immigration. we would find ourselves isolated. no longer having the heft that we have from being inside the eu. foreign policy issues are decided in the eu. i am the special envoy in libya. you have a bigger impact with the eu. for a country it would be devastating in terms of foreign policy and politics as well as
our economics. >> okay. fair enough. jonathan. we appreciate your time this morning. thank you. >> thank you very much. when we come back, we're going to have former chairman and ceo of wells fargo, dick kovacevich joins us. key economic data that is going to drive the markets. is any other data besides brexit going to drive the markets? future right now. do you opens up 155. nasdaq up 39. s&p 500 up about 18 points higher. we'll see where this all lands. "squawk box" returns in a mo moment.
and "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ let me go, hey! ♪ ♪ live from the beating heart of business, new york city, this is "squawk box." welcome back to "squawk box," here on cnbc. remember that date, june 23rd. it will be either a date to remember or, ah, i don't have any idea what that was. i'm joe kernen along with rebecca quick and andrew ross sorkin. futures right now indicated up 140. pulled back a little. european equities all strong this morning as we have been reporting. all up over 1%. they were up actually more than 2% earlier. there has been a little bit of moderation in the gains. currencies, we were above 1.49 on the pound earlier. now it's back below 1.40.
significant move over the last week or so as the -- the remain camp started improving in the polls. and in the betting markets too, which is now -- it's rounded up 80/20. i don't want you to get nervous. you told me for sure they weren't leaving. >> i don't think they're leaving. i'm 99%. on the record. looking into the camera. i think the chances are very slim. >> that's a big stretch. it's 1.49 on the pound and 80% -- >> i think we've been wasting our breath for weeks talking about this. >> not until we went back to 80%. >> just saying. however, now, given the weather and everything else. >> leaving yourself a way out? >> no. no way out. >> 99%. >> yes. i am saying there is an asymmetric risk in the markets, if i am wrong, that it's going to be bad. that's all i'm saying. >> you and the consensus. you and everybody. >> the mainstream media. >> you actually started -- tomorrow is when they stay.
if you actually start saying i predicted that like tim geithner becoming fed chief -- >> tomorrow i'm going to say that. i'm going to come in. put my feet up on the desk. >> you're the only one. the only one that thought they'd stay. okay. okay. >> we have to do some headlines. polls are now officially open in the united kingdom for the referendum on whether to leave or stay in the european union. for our u.s. audience. key times to watch. polls closing at 5:00 p.m. eastern time. at 7:30 we expect the first official returns. estimated that about 75% of the votes will be counted by midnight eastern time. and we are going to check in with wilfred frost in london in just a minute. he is on the ground there. in meantime, investors have a few economic reports to consider while they await the brexit votes. labor department will be out with its weekly report on initial jobless claims at 8:30 eastern. the government will release its may report on new home sales at
10:00 a.m. eastern time. also been monitoring developing news overnight out of washington. democrats took over the floor of the house all day and night demanding a vote on gun control. paul ryan calling the protest, quote, a publicity stunt. republicans adjourned the chamber until after the july 4th holiday. democrats still there protesting. >> there were plenty of chairs, all around the room. plenty of chairs. >> right. >> they were sitting on the floor, andrew. i mean, that is kind of a -- >> it's symbolic. >> that's the point. then why -- >> that's what you do. >> it is for publicity, right? >> yes. that's part of what it's about. >> sitting on the floor and singing songs from the -- from the civil rights movement is -- >> but they're trying to make a point. that's what they're trying to do. that's the goal. >> it's publicity for a cause that a lot of people should care about which is guns. >> maybe the cause should be that we should take on isis more directly. maybe the republicans should
have a sit-in that we don't try to contain isis. >> fewer guns here. assault weapons and more effort to deal with isis. >> let's not get more riled up. >> anything he says won't be surprising. we know who you are and where you're frm. >> i'm consistent. the voters in u.k. deciding whether to leave or remain in the european union. let's get to wilfred frost whilst he is still in london. do you think i can use it in a sentence every day? >> i use it every other sentence every single day. it's great to be in london, back in my favorite city. new york is my second but it's a big, big day. i am outside a polling station. polls will be open until 5:00 p.m. eastern time. i heard you saying 80/20. it's now about 86/14. another poll giving remain more
momentum this morning. we know the polls close at 5:00 p.m. eastern time. early results by about 7:30 p.m. eastern time. a couple hours later. let's look at the markets to focus on as they open in terms of equities. australia opens at 8:00 p.m. eastern. bhp and rio. 9:30 p.m. eastern, hong kong opens. the u.k. bond market usually opens about 6:00. it's opening early. more volume by 11:00 p.m. eastern time. european equities open at 3:00 a.m. eastern by the time that the final results should be known. of course, currency markets open pretty much 24/7. we have seen big moves in the markets as we know today. earlier i spoke to jpmorgan assets management cheap european strategist strephanie flanders and asked her if we've seen
rally too far too fast. >> i think there are dangers in the rallies we've seen. it's inevitable with such a binary outcome. in the vast majority think it will be a remain vote all the people in the market will react even if everybody thinks it will be close. that's been the odd feature of this campaign from the start. >> she said the word binary. that's the absolute key to what we've seen in the market moves. the sense on the ground is that it will still be close. i don't know if it will be 51/49. either way, no whoaknows. but it won't be 80/20. it's because of the binary outcome. even if it's only 51% remain. they're already moving a significant distance. something to bear in mind. remain has had the momentum over the last week including the last 24 hours. down here on the ground, it still feels pretty close. >> okay. thank you, wilfred. great to see you.
we'll see a lot more of you throughout the day. we'll talk more about the potential brexit impact on the markets and the financial sector. bringing in dick kovacevich. former ceo of wells fargo. if you were running a bank today, what all of the preparations you would be making ahead of this vote, if you could tell us. >> well, the most important preparations would be, if the -- if you have the leave vote, you're going to have disruptive markets. currency markets, bond markets, equity markets. and you need to have the liquidity to allow the trading of those markets, and you need to be sure that you serve your customers because there is going to be -- the markets today, given what's going on, are asymmetric. if it's a leave vote, it's going to be ugly for a few days. you need to be prepared for that. now, having said that, you're going to get a lot of help from
the central banks. everyone knows that the markets will be disruptive and they're prepared to provide the liquidity necessary to calm the markets. it's not going to come as a surprise in the sense that, you know, a bomb or something might occur which you didn't expect. i would assume that the banks are ready and, yet, it will still be messy because the -- because the risks are so asymmetric. >> i don't want to necessarily compare this to 2008, but i remember going into the weekend around lehman brothers, again an asymmetric risk. everybody said we were prepared, the banks were prepared, and yet monday happened and they weren't. what is the possibility that there is some extension threats, systemic risk, that we have not calculated or organized around? >> well, i think they're always there. and all i am saying is that i think we're even better prepared, perhaps because of something like lehman, and that
central banks are better prepared to coordinate because they had to coordinate back then, and they have the processes in place and, yet, again -- i think they will be very messy if -- even if -- i mean, if there is a leave, even though they're prepared for it. but it will -- it will sort itself out. the real question to me isn't what happens in the first 24 hours or 48 hours. is where does it end up? at what level does it end up such that we now know what the impact is. and then you could have a second rout. if it really levels out at some very negative areas in equities and bonds and soe on, you may have a second round or even a third round. the first order i am less concerned about than perhaps the second or third order that could be either calm or the opposite of that. >> dick, bob hormats, how are
you? >> hi, bob. >> one question. i agree it will be messy in the short term if there is a vote to leave. but i think your second and third-order points make a lot of sense. as i mentioned earlier in the show, the decision to leave is really a decision to undertake a divorce. the difficulty is that, under the lisbon treaty, which is the operative part of eu law here, you have two years or more to work out the terms of the divorce, and then the u.k. is going to want to try to get some agreement on access to the large eu market. my worry is that this period of uncertainty is going to last a very long time, until you figure out the terms of the divorce, all the rules and regulations in the u.k. that are put in under the aegis of eu law, that is going to have to be determined. you may not have the same u.k. government a day after that you have today.
there is a huge amount of uncertainty. and my question is, how do the banks deal with that? that is going to be a big long-term challenge for the market, and that uncertainty could last for several years, which is going to reduce investment and reduce job creation throughout the u.k. and maybe parts of europe. >> well, i think that is a risk. but it's also a benefit in the sense that i -- i believe it's going to give time for people to get off of the political side of this and say, look, there is an enormous incentive to both the u.k. and the eu not to have an economic collapse. and it's in their hands. how they negotiate to give enough pain to the u.k. to keep other countries from doing this but not so much that it's an economic collapse for either the eu or the u.k. why would you want that, and why would you allow that? so i think, the more pain there is early, quite frankly, would put everyone on alert, we must
make this work. and i think they will. >> i agree -- >> but i think there is another -- >> and i was going to say, i think the eu wants to inflict some pain on the u.k. because they have a lot of separatist parties in the eu. they don't want to make it look too easy to them for a country to separate. so they have to inflict some pain on the eu to punish them so their own parties that want to leave will be somewhat diminished in their political power. on the other hand, eu is a big market for the u.k. u.k. is a big market for eu, so they have to find a delicate balance. as you say, it's not going to be easy to do. that's the concern i have. >> yeah. but i think there is another vehicle here that we have for two years. as you know, there's discussions of the transatlantic partnership to reduce trade frictions between the u.s. and the eu. what you could have now -- let's say there is pain going on,
maybe more pain than we want. now -- why not have a three-party discussion going on. the u.k., the u.s. and the eu. kind of a face-saving process. you can say, we were tough here, but now we have a whole new arrangement going on. i think you could use that vehicle to get rid of the politics or at least reduce the politics, save face and come back to some normality. i think it's on the table and a great vehicle to kind of get back to where we should always be with -- and still have the politics -- everyone gets their politics initially. >> i would like to see that continue, but it's going so slowly i'm not too optimistic that can be done in the short term. it's not totally clear that either the u.k. or the eu would make the kind of commitments that the united states wants them to make to consummate this deal. it's a good framework but a very slow process. >> dick, you play the markets. is there anything you've done
ahead of this potential brexit? >> no. in fact, my -- i will probably, if the markets really get ugly, i'll probably go into the markets because i think there is too much incentives for people to get back to normal. and the markets generally over react. i am prepared to go into the market if they really get ugly. which i don't expect because i think remain will win. if it does there will be some buying opportunities. >> dick, before we let you go. i know you're on the board of theranos. last time you were here, spirited discussion about the future of theranos. i don't think walgreens had dropped theranos at that point. how has that changed the dynamic in terms of the future of the company? >> it hasn't helped. i know elizabeth was surprised about it. in the long run i don't think it changes anything at all. she believes that the technology works. she is working on the issues that occurred. she believes those will be
resolved. and so, for the long term, we don't think it will be an issue. >> you hear jennifer lawrence may play her in a movie by adam mckay? >> i read that. >> will you be going to see that movie? >>. [ laughing ] i don't go to movies. if i see movies at all, they're at home. >> you have seen the real thing. dick, we appreciate it. >> thanks. >> thanks. when we come back, the great trade debate. we will tell you which states will be most affected by the presidential candidates' duelling trade plans. "squawk box" will be right back.
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and beyond. scott, every year the rankings change. and every year does our measurement change slightly too? >> is it california this year? >> well, we look at a lot of different things. the basic categories also remain the same. the weightings change depending on how states sell themselves. the important area is always infrastructure. behind me is the port of oakland, the fifth largest u.s. port. it's part of the infrastructure that we look at as we consider the value of goods that flow through america's top states for business. and all 50 states. and those numbers could fundamentally change no matter who is elected president. donald trump, of course, wants to build that wall on the border with mexico. but he also has threatened stiff tariffs on china to prevent currency manipulation. and hillary clinton, she has turned against that transpacific trade partnership which she once called the gold standard. >> i just don't think that, when you add it all up, it meets the
standards that i set. and i couldn't look in the eyes of, you know, a voter and say, yeah, i am convinced this is going to raise your income because i wasn't. >> now, if all of this winds up with a reduction in trade with china, it's going to affect some states more than others. john at cnbc.com has been crunching numbers. he looks at the states affected the most. chief among them. washington state. that's where boeing makes its planes. $19 billion worth of goods shipped to china last year. followed closely by california, $16 billion. a lot of that computers and electronics. not just here on the west coast. texas shipped nearly $12 billion worth of goods to japan -- to china last year. that includes chemicals and machinery. tenth annual top states for business study is coming up in july on cnbc. but right now at cnbc.com, we're looking at the issues and what it takes to make states competitive.
we hope you will visit early and often. as always, we want to hear from you on social media using the #topstates. >> scott, what won last year? remind me. was it minnesota? >> last year was minnesota. texas close behind, four points behind. we talked last year about the different approaches the two states took to be very close to the top spot if at not the top spot. >> if you ever have california ranked number one for business, you need to throw the methodology out. you've done something completely wrong. so you know. as far as i'm concerned. if you ever get to california as top for business, people are going to say it's ridiculous. don't do that. just for me. >> there has been no danger of that so far. where california exels is access to capital and technology innovation. as you might expect, it gets nailed when it comes to things like cost of doing business, cost of living and so it's never
managed to get into the top tier, just in certain areas it does well. >> weather is nice. but the traffic is bad. in southern california, it's almost an offset. except now i have waves and google maps. now i realize there were side streets. >> you could have been taking. >> i could have saved seven years of my life, scott. >> there are a million other people also on those apps. >> and people who live on the small streets now are mad. i know. okay. all right, scott. i am not worried. he said it will never happen. it will never be california. thank you. could it be massachusetts? i don't think it could be. >> i don't know. coming up, i'm confused. twilio, twitter, they're different, right? andrew? people are going to twill and tweet. twitter paid $10 million for the rights to stream nfl thursday night games. now the media giant is trying to
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fresh ingredients. step-by-step-recipes. delivered to your door. get your first two meals free blueapron.com/cook. it's a tough race, and it could get tougher but there will be only one winner of cnbc's top states for business competition. >> south dakota is turning around. >> which way are your taxes turning? >> which state will win on work force, taxes and economic strength? >> how great are your utility costs. >> on tv, online and on your phone, america's top states for business starts tuesday, july 12th on cnbc. let's take a look at stocks to watch this morning. home depot was upgraded to buy from neutral at nomura securities. it says the home improvement
retailer is gaining market share and benefiting from the improved overall housing market. scott cohn was just talking about boeing. it was rated overweight in new coverage at morgan stanley. the firm says the jet maker has significant margin expansion opportunity and also says the stock is attractively valued at current levels. goldman sachs added financial, software maker intuit to its conviction buy list. i won't even use that word, conviction. points to better customer retention as well as optimism about subscription growth for intuit's quickbook online service. you're pointing back -- if you are convicted, that's where you -- >> that's where you're going. >> the yard where you can exercise. every exercise yard has a bench. they all have a bench, right? that's what those guys -- >> we know from our experience watching television and the movies. >> from driving past prisons.
>> i have interviewed people in prisons several times. seen the yards. >> white collar prisons. >> they have the same things. >> you have been to the bungalows. >> i have been to the nice ones. but it's not that nice. >> it's difficult to get a tee time. >> they have barbed wire around you. >> barbed wire around a lush golf course -- >> it doesn't exist that way. but there are some tennis courts. >> that tells a lot. twitter pitching its nfl ad service. the giant is selling ad packages for as much as $8 million per advertiser according to re/code. the price depends on whether or not the ads are shown during the game or alongside other nfl content. coming up, the fund-raising gap. donald trump trailing hillary clinton by millions of dollars. the gop nominee's national finance chair joins us to talk money on the campaign trail in a moment.
box." we are just a few seconds away from weekly jobless claims. futures in the meantime, they've been higher all morning. the dow futures near the highs of the session. up 172. s&p up 19. nasdaq up 38. the ten-year note this morning is yielding higher at 1.379%. rick a standing by at the cme. take it away. >> we were expecting around 270,000 on claims. last week was 277. we ended up with 259,000. so that is definitely a big, big drop. down 18,000. and back to levels obviously we haven't seen since the early '70s. i am not sure how many clues it gives us. if there were zero jobless claims and 1% unemployment i am not convinced janet yellen and company would be bold enough to trust the numbers to normalize rates. that is not the story today. the story today is brexit. or maybe lack of brexit. or how markets work or how much
they're up thinking the remain vote is going to win. who needs an economy. who needs economists. who needs central bankers. just have a referendum every six months or so. does more horse power to the market than many of the fundamentals of late. back to you, joe. >> rick, thanks. we'll be watching all this other stuff. it does pale in comparison. i don't know if we're on tender hooks really at 1.49? are we, andrew? >> no. we're not. except for the possibility that everything will go wrong. we've all read stories about the difference in the amount that's in the bank with hillary clinton versus donald trump. now we're going to get to talk about the fund-raising push, which is really beginning in earnest. donald trump says if he has to he'll put his own money in the coffers but would like help from
the party. joining us with an update, trump campaign advisor and national finance chairman steve stephen. thank you for joining us. >> good morning. pleasure to be here. >> i numbers -- i guess you'd say they're not relevant since things started in june. >> we signed the joint fund-raising agreement the last week in may. just started in may. the may numbers are irrelevant. donald financed the campaign ahead of time. there was no reason to have extra cash in the bank. >> i saw $13 million has been raised in conjunction with the gop and $2 million raised quickly just in the last couple days just for trump. is that -- is it even more than that now? you got updated numbers? we've ramped up the effort this month. this month we've had very successful events in new york. a dinner the other night. a breakfast yesterday. a couple hundred people were there. those events raised approximately $10 million in conjunction with the rnc. we just ramped up the online
program, which we couldn't be happier about the support we're seeing from people online in small donations. we have done about $6 million so far this week. in an unprecedented opportunity, the first email that went out on monday -- >> sorry -- >> donald matched $2 million online. >> it's a nuanced discussion. there's a lot of different facets to it. number one, he could self-fund theoretically. number two, there is a guy named jeb bush who had $140 million in the primary season and not got above 4%. sometimes it's hard to correlate money with results. though there are only two people now. when you read $40 million versus 1.3. it's daunting and it's not a good headline. >> i agree it's not a good headline. it's also a misleading headline. >> okay. >> first of all, as you said, i don't think donald needs nearly as much money as hillary does. so he has proven in the primary that he has been able to be very efficient. he has a huge online presence
with over 20 million followers. this is going to be a non-traditional campaign. >> meaning he gets free advertising when he shows up on -- on programs, when he does all these things and she doesn't do that. >> absolutely. this is going to be a campaign driven by social media and driven by free tv. let me also say, when people talk about resources, the rnc has over 750 people today on the ground, 500 people in the field. 5,000 people that are being trained in a training program to volunteer. so there are plenty of resources. >> are they going full throttle for trump? >> for trump and the rest of the party. >> there is one group of people who keep saying, if you can self-fund, self-fund. he comes out and says he is going to or he could if he wants to. does it make your job harder in terms of gop supporters saying to themselves, well, this guy can already -- he already has the money. if he wants to do it, he can do it. i'm going to give my money to other people in the party?
>> donald has said first of all the first focus in fund-raising is to fund-raise within the party and the joint agreement. it's critical for him and the rest of the party. he wants the party to be successful. he wants a house and senate controlled by the republicans. >> it's a two-way street. if i am helping you, you should be helping me. there have been questions about how committed the rnc or maybe beyond the rnc, just republican elites, are. >> i think that's absolutely right. i think it is a two-way street. both the fund-raising effort and the support. >> so you had -- the other thing is 700, in the clinton campaign 70 in the trump campaign. maybe 69 now with corey out. can you do it with less? would that be a selling point to say, look, i am running a campaign. that's how i'll run the government, with 70 people instead of 700. >> absolutely. >> really?
>> a big component of this is that we can run the campaign more efficiently. will we add more resources? absolutely. but this isn't going to be hundreds of people added to the staff. selected areas. you've seen this week. rapid response was rolled out. i think you have seen a series of great speeches that we're going to be doing on policy. >> do you know if there will be a guy to take lewandowski's place or manafort, all the duties have moved under him? >> there will not be someone to replace him per se. paul is overall managing the strategy of the campaign. >> you'll tell us who the vice president is? is that something you'll help us with today as andrew would say? >> not today but soon. this is going to be the most exciting convention you have ever seen. we are obviously going to announce the vice president. >> what do you think happened with corey? you're inside the tent. there were rumors -- >> what didn't happen with him. >> there were rumors he was going to plant stories or
something. what was happening? >> i think corey made terrific additions to this campaign and really helped donald to get where he is. >> on message. >> i think the campaign is in transition and growing. >> can i ask you about one other -- sort of a headline conundrum. one of the things that's come out in the past couple of days even is the idea to donald trump's -- the campaign has spent money that ultimately has gone back to some of his own properties and companies like his plane, mar-a-lago, things like that. i understand legally it has to be done that way, but it becomes -- how do you explain it to the public, some of whom look at that and say there is something wrong. >> or the contributors who say the money is going back to his properties rather than to the campaign? >> i think the press has been very unfair. >> what are the facts? >> i think the facts are, first of all, he loaned $50 million to the campaign. he has now forgiven that loan. so that is a contribution, and he has also said that he will contribute significantly more
money. >> that's a fact. see. did you know that? >> no. >> $50 million has been -- >> correct. >> we just forgave the loan. >> you said that's all he's worth basically. >> how much? >> we just forgave the loan this week. it's approximately $50 million. >> according to the "new york times." >> that's ridiculous. donald has plenty of liquidity. >> how much do you think he'll ultimately spend of his own money? >> let me answer the other thing i was going to say. there are strict campaign laws. you see money being recycled, going in and coming back to properties. to the extent he uses any property or he uses his plane, he has to pay himself back. that's just strict campaign laws. >> because the law is that, as a company, those cannot be in-kind contributions. >> correct. >> i think it's important because i don't think it gets out there enough. >> very strict laws for foundations as well. we know how closely those are followed. >> can i ask you one question -- question about the convention. is the convention going to be
exciting because there is going to be some very interesting policy issues discussed? or is it going to be because of theatrics, getting a lot of high-profile people? the one thing i think people still would like to know about donald trump is what are his policies? he says one thing one day and one thing the next. are we going to have, by the time of the convention, consistent policies, or is the thee atrickle element going to be the dominant one and policies pushed aside or downgraded? what's the convention about? >> i think this will be a convention about substance and about having the people understand exactly what the donald trump presidency is going to be. and i think it's going to be unbelievably exciting. so, you know, i think you're going to begin to see a bunch of policies rolled out. this campaign and this election is all going to come down to two things. national security and the economy. and i am absolutely convinced he has plans on both that will make
this country great. and on the economy, it's about tax reform. it's about less regulation. it's about energy policies that make the country self-sufficient. it's about fair trade, not just free trade but fair trade. i think you'll begin to see a lot of details on all these policies. >> will he discuss his views on debt? on this show he said he liked to fool around with debt. he was talking about discounting debt. troubled people in the financial market. >> i think he clarified that issue. >> only if you don't want it clarified and you still use it as a talking point. you are a trump surrogate and you are a hillary clinton surrogate. do you know if she'll have a press conference. it's been 200 days since she has answered a question from the press? did she outline outline of her well delineated policies? >> she gave two terrific speeches, one in ohio -- >> he just gave a speech yesterday. how about a press conference where she answers questions.
>> i don't know her press conference schedule but i know her speeches have been very powerful. >> okay. >> she must be afraid of press conferencesme conferencesme conferencesment. >> i think she works well with the press. >> we'll just sit here. we'll continue the conversation. it's great to have you here. >> thank you. when we come back, voting is under way for the referendum on whether or not the u.k. will stay or leave the eu. former treasury official john taylor joins us next. we'll get his take on what a possible brexit will mean for the economy. "squawk box" will be right back. ♪ can a toothpaste do everything well?
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welcome back, everybody. we have been talking about today's referendum in britain. while the debate continues, anti-brexit forces are talking about things too. some have wondered if there are overex an raci overexaggeration of the dangers. joining us is a senior at the stanford, university professor. you've written extensively about some of these issues. you think a brexit would be an economic mistake. why is that? >> well, it's an opportunity for the britons -- the people to trade with the rest of europe, it's generally a benefit, it's been a positive. i think breaking up at this point would cause a lot of uncertainty. i don't think it would be the armageddon people talk about, quite frankly.
it has a couple of years to renegotiate something if that's the way the people decide to go. i think also, put into this context, the british are a positive force in the european union at this point, and i think european union itself is having trouble. so think about this globally. i think there is another reason for us as outsiders to hope brexit doesn't happen. >> we spoke with another former treasury official yesterday and an ambassador who said that basically what you are kind of laying out too, that we are better off to have the u.k. at the table helping to make some of these decisions. the u.k., though, does have a high price that they have to pay for that. being at the table requires that you follow the rules. as the u.s., we may like them to be there, but who are we to say if they're thinking the stakes are too high that they're not ready to give up sterling and become even more integrated. >> this case is not a euro zone issue, it's not an ecb issue. they have their own currency at
this point. it has to do with trade flows. this question about the bureaucracy in brussels and the extra constraints it puts on the british is a serious question. if they can effect that in a positive way to reduce some of those extra regulations it would be quite positive for them and be quite positive for the rest of the world as well. so that's the way -- don't exit so much but use the voice. >> you must be a little bit torn, john. with your hoover compatriots. it's funny the way that a lot of the individuals come down on this. are you -- what? are you 51/49? you are not 100/0. i'm sure you've got -- you can see that the reasons a lot of people say leave is the way to go, i am certain. >> i see the arguments. i participated in -- over the years in a lot of negotiations with the eu. i know there is a bureaucracy. it's hard to deal with in many
cases. the british, i've dealt with them individually. quite frankly, that's most often a joy. we're partners in many directions. and if this happens, if there is a brexit, i think the united states should be there and thinking about trade agreements and finding ways to really help the situation. but at this point i think it's -- again, it's not going to be an armageddon situation. there will be a couple of years for us all to figure out what to do. i think you have to look at the best outcome possible. again, i hope it doesn't happen, but if it does we should be ready for it. >> hmm. okay. you know, john, one of the issues that -- that has come out with this is just the idea that things are not going to be able to remain in the same place. the u.k. either has to decide to get more deeply involved or to pull back. correct? they can't continue to have this arm's length relationship that they have had to this point with
sterling. do you think? >> no. i think this is a situation where there's a vote itself, and all the discussion about it and all the people who have put out the pros and cons. it will make people think. if brexit doesn't happen, i think it will be an opportunity for them. remember, the british economy is doing relatively well compared to a lot of the rest of europe. so they come to the discussion with some strength, with some experience. and that's going to be a positive. i think, if we support that positive, again, the things that have had to do with reducing the regulations, more sensible kind of fiscal and monetary policy for that -- in that regard, i think it would be a positive. but at this point i don't know what's going to happen. it's -- it's your guess as much as mine. but i would say we should be ready. and again, it's not one of those things where the fed has to be ready to take a big action. it's going to be a longer-term thing. >> sure. >> there is a sense in which we're overreacting to each little wiggle in the economy. >> bob, quick point?
>> john, bob hormats. i completely agree with what you are saying. i think having a seat at the table in europe will give britain influence that they would not have if they were outside. there are two other geopolitical issues. one point that people forget is, thatcher is the person who, a more nationalistic brit that's hard to identify in the last 50 years. she was the one who encouraged them to come in for many of the reasons that you are discussing. it gave them a more influential voice in europe. there are two political points that i think add to what you are saying. one is, what's going to happen internally in europe? the woman in charge of scotland says she wants another referendum if britain leaves, on leaving for scotland. the problems with northern ireland.
then it plays into putin's hands. putin's goal is to weaken europe, splinter european governments. weaken europe as a whole and week weaken the eu and >> europe is part of this and it's a real question with how we handle things with our foreign policy. >> those forces of nationalism and xenophobia would be strengthened if britain voted to leave. i think that's part of a broader geo political narrative that we have to and brits have to bear
in mind. >> i want to thank you very much for joining us today, john taylor. >> coming up, west coast cramer. jim cramer joins us live from san francisco. we'll get his take on the top stories of the morning. here are the futures. we'll be right back. ok team, what if 30,000 people download the new app? we're good. okay... what if a million people download the new app? we're good. five million? good. we scale on demand. hybrid infrastructure, boom. ok. what if 30 million people download the app? we're not good. we're total heroes. scale on demand with the number one company
cramer's getting ready for "squawk on the street" from the west coast this morning. he joins us from san francisco. good morning to you. >> good morning, andrew. >> how do you position yourself today ahead of this vote? >> look stealing from the rally here. by monday we're going to be thinking not about brexit at all but rather how the quarter was and whether things are a little bit better than what janet yellen said the other day because we're looking at the jobs number and the jobs number is very strong. >> and does the market -- assuming that the remains win, does the market rally or is it already so baked in? and do you see any risk? it seems almost asymmetric at
this point. if we do have an exit, then what? >> i've been saying from the very beginning, it's very difficult to pinpoint who would get hurt here. j.d. diamond they would have to move things. the banks, that flight to quality comes off. you're going to see some selling in bonds. that's going to help the banks. that would be the group to look at. and i think health care, yesterday we had a biotech rally that started that could have a few -- there are some legs. but in general, this was never our fight. had something we talked about in the media. when you're out here, all they wanted to talk about were social issues, whether it was social issues driving, it nothing financial. and there because there's a heightened sensitivity to social issues, it was a question about whether we were going to see a backlash against immigration and further globalization. >> jim, we appreciate it.
welcome back, everybody. let's get back to our guest host. bob, sum this up for us quickly. today is the actual brexit day. what happens tomorrow? >> well, if brexit wins and europe and the eu split, there's going to be a prolonged period of negotiations and they're going to be i think very difficult because on one hand britain and the eu have to decide the terms of the severance, the term of the divorce. there are so many parties in the eu now who would like to put pressure on brussels or get out altogether, and the national front in france being one but there are many others. so the other european countries can't be too easy on britain. on the other hand, it's a big
trading partner for them. so they have to make a deal which is economically rational but imposes penalties. even if britain stays in, these anti-xenophobic issues will stay. and in the united states, too. it's the same kind of forces driving brexit that are driving the u.s. >> thank you. >> make sure you join us tomorrow. we'll know it all. "squawk on the street" is next. good thursday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with david faber. jim creamer is in san francisco. voting begins an historic vote on whether great britain will leave the european union.