tv Fast Money Halftime Report CNBC June 23, 2016 12:00pm-1:01pm EDT
clear reminder of why it is so important for this supreme court to have a full bench. for more than 40 years, there has been an average of just over two months between the nomination and the hearing. and i nominated judge marek garland to the supreme court more than three months ago. but most republicans so far have refused to even meet with him. they are allowing partisan politics to jeopardize something as fundamental as the impartiality and the integrity of the justice system, and america should not let it stand. this is an election year, and during election years, politicians tend to use the immigration issue to the scare people with words like amnesty in hopes to whip up votes, and keep in mind that the millions of us, myself included, go back generations in this country where the ancestors put in the painstaking efforts to become citizens and we don't like the
notion that anybody could get a free pass to american citizenship, but here is the thing, the millions of people have cokochl forward to get right with the law and the policy, and they have been living here for years, too, and decades, and leaving the broken system the way it is, that is not a solution. in fact, that is the real amnesty to pretend that we can deport 11 million people or building a wall of spending tens of billions of taxpayer's money is betting on what is really just factually incorrect. it is not going to work. it is not good for this country. it is a fantasy that offers nothing to help the middle class and demeans our tradition of being both a nation of laws and a nation of immigrants and in the end it is my firm belief that immigration is not something to fear and we don't have to wall ourselves off from
those who may not look like us right now or pray like we do or have a different last name, because being an american is about something more than that. what makes us americans is the shared commitment to the ideal that we are all created equal, and all of us have a chance to make of our lives what we will, and every study shows that whether it was the irish or the pols or the germans or the eye are tallians or the chinese or the japanese or the mexicans or the kenyans -- whoever showed up over time by the second generation or the third generation, those kids are americans, and they do look like us, because we don't look one way. we don't all have the same last names, but we share a creed and commitment to the value s ths t founded this nation. that is who we are.
and that is what i believe most americans recognize. so, here's the bottom line. we have got a very real choice that america faces right now, and we will continue to implement the existing programs that are already in place, and we won't be able to move forward with the expanded programs that we wanted to move forward on, because the supreme court is not able to issue a ruling at this stage. and now we have got a choice about who we will be as a country, and what we want to teach our kids and how we want to be represented in congress, and in the white house. we are going to have to make a decision about whether we are a people who tolerate the hypocrisy of the system where the workers who pick our fruit or make our beds never had the chance to get right with the law or whether we are going to give
them a chance just like our forebearers had a chance to take responsibility to take responsibility and give their kids a better future. we will have to decide if we are the people who are going to accept the cruelty of ripping children from their family's arms and respect the value of families for all of our communities, and if we are going to be the people who educate the brightest in our universities only to send them away to compete against us or whether we encourage them to stay and create new jobs and new businesses right here in the united states. these are all of the questions that voters now are going to have to ask themselves and are going to have to answer in november. these are the issues debated by candidates across the country both congressional candidates as well as the presidential candidates and in november, americans are going to have to make a decision about what we care about and who we are.
i promise you this though, sooner or later, immigration reform will get done. congress is not going to be able to ignore america forever. it is not a matter of the, but it is a matter of when. i can say that with confidence, because we have seen our history, and we get the spasms of politics around immigration, and fear moernging, and then our traditions and our history and our better impulses kick in. that is how we all ended up here. because i guarantee you at some point every one of us has somebody in our background who people didn't want coming here. and yet, here we are. that is what going to happen this time, and the question is do we do it in a smart rational sensible way or we just keep on
kicking the can down the road? i believe that this country deserves a immigration policy that reflects the goodness of the american people, and i think that we are going to get it, and hopefully get it in november. all right. i'll take two questions. two questions. >> mr. president, this is one of your highest -- >> go ahead. >> realistically, what is the risk of deportation of more than 4 million people, and you say that we can not deport 11 million or 4 million in this chunk of time here -- >> and let me be very clear. what is unaffected by the ruling today or the lack of a ruling is the enforcement priorities that we put in place, and our enforcement priorities that have been laid out by secretary jeh johnson at the department of homeland security are pretty clear. we prioritize criminals. we prioritize gang-banger, and we prioritize folks who have
just come in. what we don't do is to prioritize people who have been here a long time who are otherwise law abiding and who have roots and connections in the communities, and so, those enforcement priorities will continue. and the work that we have done before with the dream act kids, and those policies remain, and so what this has prevented us from doing is expanding the scope of what we have done with the dream act kids and keep in mind that though, that is just a temporary measure and all it is doing is basically say ing ing e kids, you can have confidence that you are not going to be deported, but it does not resolve your ultimate status. that is going to require action and although i am disappointed by a lack of decision by the
supreme court, the deadlock, this does not substantially change the status quo, and it doesn't negate what has always been the case which is if we are going to the solve this problem effectively, we have to have congress pass the law. i have pushed to the limits of my executive authority, and we now have to have congress act. and hopefully we will have a vigorous debate in this election, and there is this is how a democracy is supposed to work, and there is going be a determination as to which direction we go in, and as i said, over the long term, i am confident about the direction that this country is going to go in, because we have seen it in the past. if we have not seen it in the past, america would look d differently than it does today, but whether we are going to get
this done now sooner so that it does not continue to be the divisive force in the politics and we can get down to the business of pulling together to create jobs and educate our kids and protect ourselves from the external threats and, you know, do the things that, you know, we need to do to ensure the better future, that is going to be determined in part by how they turn the out. one more question. >> two going forward. going forward are you going to be able to do anything more for immigrants going forward in terms of the executive action before the election and the next presidency. and two, do you in any way take
this as some republicans have presented this as a slap at your use of the executive authority, this tie vote, and is this in any way going to circumscribe how aggressively or forcefully, you use the executive authority in the remainder of the time in office? >> oh, okay. i -- on the specifics of immigrati immigration, i don't believe there are additional executive actions that we can take. we can implement what we have already put in place, and that is not affect ed by this decision. but, you know, we have to follow now what has been ruled on in the 5th circuit, because the supreme court could not resolve the issue. and we are going to have to abide by that ruling until an
election, and a confirmation of a ninth justice of the supreme court so that they can break this tie, because they have always said that we are going to do what we can lawfully through executive action, but we can't go beyond that, and we have butted up about as far as we can on this the particular topic. it does not have any impact on from our perspective on the host of other issues that we are working on, because each one of the issues has a different analysis and it is based on different statutes or different interpretations of our authority. so for example on climate change, that is based on the clean air act, and the epa and the previous supreme court rulings as opposed to the theory of prosecutorial discretion that in the past has every other president has exercised and the supreme court was not definitive
one way or another on this, and the problem is that they don't have a ninth justice, and so that is going to be a problem. and with respect to the republicans, i think that what it tells you is that if you keep on blocking judges from getting on the bench, then courts can't issue decisions. and what that means is that then you are going to have the status quo frozen, and we won't be able to make some progress on some very important issue, and maybe that is the strategy from the start. but it is not a sustainable strategy, and it is certainly a strategy to be broken by the election unless their basic theory is that we will never confirm judges again. i hope that is not the theory, because that is not how our democracy is designed. >> and with the chastisement -- it is a one-court decision
that said we can't come up with a decision, so that is a little bit of the stretch. maybe the next time they can -- and if we have a full court issuing a full opinion on anything, then we take it serious seriously. this we have to abide by, but it is not any kind of the value statement or decision on the merits on the decisions, all right. thank you. >> mr. president -- >> is that -- all right. that is the president of course commenting after the supreme court deadlocked 4-4 on the immigration order effectively blocking it, and the president saying to dday that congression inaction led to the order in the first place, and he called it frustrating, and john harwood is listening in from the nation's capital, and john, how much of a blow is this to the president's legacy on immigration? >> well, it is a blow in the sense that he cannot codify what he has ordered as he indicated
the enforcement priorities that he has established remain in place so that practically speaking the people who would have been shielded by the codification of the executive order are not likely to be deported, but it is a informal thing. it is not what the president wanted. on the other hand, the frustration that he felt and that a pro immigration reform activist feel may be translated into greater political activity, and so when you are losing substantively, you will win politically, and the president was trying to put the pressure on the republicans by saying they have not passed immigration reform, and they won't confirm the justice who could break this tie. not sure how successful that is going to be, but that is the thinking. >> john harwood, thank you very much, live from the nation's capital with the very latest following the president's comments there. and we are going to be taking a quick break and come back to get into the big story of to day on
wall street, and that is of course, the brexit vote. great britain is going to the polls today, and the u.s. markets are sharply higher as that vote takes place, and we are on the ground live in london with the very latest, and all of the analysis on what it means for your money when we come back. aren't getting the most out of it. the ibm cloud is uniquely designed for all kinds of data. like data from the weather company for 2.2 billion locations. or billions of health-related data points. even social sentiment in real time from hundreds of millions of people. it's all in the ibm cloud. if you combine that with the data your business already has- then things get interesting. so right now we're working with a retailer to blend social and inventory data to help predict demand. we can help a hotel chain match weather and local event data so they can adjust room prices from minute to minute. and another company we work with can apply analytics to sensor data to save millions in energy cost.
all right. we are back on the halftime report, and it is the market's moment of truth, and the voters in the united kingdom deciding the future as the possible brexit hangs in the balance with your money of course. as part of a special pam, jim lebenthal, and joe tear know va, and stephanie who is the head of the cme global trading, and we want to get that vote that is under way for five hours or so as britain is deciding its future place. and courtney ratliff gibson, great to have you and congratulations to you on your recent marriage, and congrats on that. >> thank you, guys. >> and what is your view in the overall view of this in the bigger picture, and the markets are taking it far with the
uncertainty of looming of how it will turn out. >> and that is what it is, it is uncertainty, and you can think that it is going one way or another, but no one knows and the simple fact that you can not even get the exit polls is something else that, you know, it says that, okay, is this rally really real, and does somebody know something that the rest of us don't, and the effects of it are actually if they leave or remain, and it is re real. it has a e tremendous impact on the global market. >> and steve weiss, are you comfortable at buying u.s. eq equities at this moment? >> i don't. right now with them staying in is baked into the market, and baked in yesterday and the day before. so we have seen the market come back a little bit as we are getting further into the afternoon, and so right now, the biggest risk is to the downside. so i would rather wait, and if you are going to be taking a look at what happened through june with the hedge funds, and i am looking at the expose sure, and one of the prime voters put out this note, and they have done nothing, and so the hedge funds remain constant, and
having said that, there is an excess of the capital going back for the four or five months, and that is is for other reason, and if you wait, and there is a big sale, and they do leave, you buy, and you may also have a sell on the news, and i have dry powder, and other issues going for ward and i would wait. >> i want to go live to london and i want to do that with our own sara eisen, and she has the latest there with how everything is looking there, despite what is quite rainy, sarah. >> yeah, everything is looking very gray here in the city of london, and you have missed a downpour in the last hour or so, and it is important, because it is playing into the turnout of the votes today, and the polls have been open since 7:00 a.m. this morning and little after 5:00 p.m., and we have less than five hours the go, and the polls are closing at 10:00 p.m., and the turn outis key, because according to the polls leading into today, it is still very
close. the slight edge in the polls to the leave to remain. and we are talking about 47% to 4 45%, and we will get another poll later today by ugov and there are no official exit polls, and so the polls close at 10:00 p.m. eastern time, and at 12:30, we will start to get the 12:30 a.m. this time early indicati indications from certain polling stations, and various locations will be reporting into the wee hours of the morning here. the results should be clear by the time that britain wakes up and has breakfast which means in the united states, it is a late night for the trading desks, because we will get it late in the night. the polls are close, and the betting odds and the u.s. markets as you have been talking about will continue to favor the remain, but i have to tell you, scott, the folks that we are
talk talking to on the ground here are pretty much split as we are talking to the people going into the polling stations, and convincing, and well informed public on one side where you have the fears of immigration, of globalization and they want the take their country back, and voting to leave, and on the other side, a sound economic case for remaining in a fear of the unknown, and the unprecedented and unchartered territory the of leaving the eu. of course, we will continue to bring you the updates as we get through themo them throughout the night. >> yes, i know that you will. i have heard of the phrase asymmetrical risk if the leave vote wins, and that is in your note today. what does that mean? what does it look like to you if in fact that happens? >> i used that term a week ago when sterling was 142. i said it is a asymmetric, and since then, the polls have clearly favored, at least the betting polls which is what the market participants are looking
at, scott, they are going to stay. what we are seeing with the rally today is the possibility that you can't confirm it of the private exit polls to ta, and now, close to 11.50 which is a relative fair value if they say stay, and asymmetric from here is one thing, and it does not mean if they stay, it is going to go higher, because it is not much above $11.50, but if they leave, sterling is $1.30 tomorrow. >> and so you agree with the soros doctrine on this which is if you are voting leave, look out below, because you could have a 10 to 20% move quickly in pound dollar? >> yep. >> and george soros would know all about the pound, because he is very good at it. he is right, and he is also right, and other analysts are right in highlighting a global issue for the markets and it is not a uk issue. >> more than anything, a currency issue or -- >> no, it is a global market, and it is about currencies and
the interest rates and ultimately about stocks. this is not -- >> and not immediately? >> yes, i am with you, steve, it would be pretty dramatic, and i think that the market is saying that it is going to be a get it, but a it is a major event for the markets if it happens and hopefully it does not happen. >> and you like many are following the betting parlors rather than the classic polls? >> always. when you are look at the polls that are really, really hard to look at in the uk and looking at the election, and the scottish referendum, you have to go with the betting polls, because they are the most accurate and that is why sterling is 1: -- $1.48 and staying in. >> and that is why managing the portfolio, you have to say, what is the difference of being invested and not, and agree with steve, that not being invested in, and that is is the direction of the vote going n and you are coming up at the end of the quarter to look at the portfolio, and a decent quarter of recovery and now do you want
to make the decision if the market goes through the highs of last year not to be fully invested? i don't want to be having that strategy. i want to be -- >> you are a buyer of the u.s. stocks here today? >> right here today, and right here last week i talked about being fully invested and i don't know if you agree, paul, but if the downside is what we see tomorrow, and it is a 10 to 20% decline which i agree with on the vote the leave, i think that the ecb comes right in and tries to support the markets, and it is a knee-jerk reaction, and the markets lift, and maybe it does not take a couple of days or the couple of weeks, but over the course of the few months, and that is the right strategy. >> and to be clear, i want to make sure that you are saying the right thing when you are talking about the 10% to 20% decline, it is the pound and not the stock market, because that would be turn out the lights. and i am with you on this by the way. the market is telling us the outcome, and you need to be invested here and i am going to bet with paul at my peril, because you have to realize a
couple of years even if they vote the leave before all of the rules are put in place by which they would leave and that is a lot of time for the market to adjust without throwing up all over itself. >> and now, i want paul to react to that and there are suggests that while there are two years sort of reignitinging and we are getting or getting back trade agreements, it could take a lot longer? >> yes, the swiss, it could take 12 years, and forget about the two years, because i think that, you think of negotiating anything, and trying to buy and sell a house, and these are trade agreements with every country in the world, and this is dramatic. >> and then they will start to the run until they say that we are getting out, and nothing to say that the british government has to agree with what they are doing. >> yes, and on that note, think about the next step, that you would get a new prime minister in the uk. >> no doubt. >> and think about, that and this is volatility after volatility that could play out here, and we need to pray that it is no. >> and so we have plenty of time
here? >> yes, 30 more minutes for you. >> it will take that. >> and thank you for being here. >> absolutely. >> great to have you here on this historic day. sglnd paul medley, and kourtney r ratcliff gibson as well. thank you, both. and coming up we will talk to john rogers from aerial investments about why they should stay in the eu. working 24/7 on mobile trader, rated #1 trading app on the app store. it lets you trade stocks, options, futures... even advanced orders. and it offers more charts than a lot of other competitors do on desktop. you work so late. i guess you don't see your family very much? i see them all the time. did you finish your derivatives pricing model, honey?
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it's defense. bae systems. we are back on "halftime report" and we are going to courtney reagan with the latest. >> president obama expressing disappointment in the supreme court 4-4 decision that blocked his immigration plan to shield the millions in the u.s. from deportation. >> today, the supreme court was unable to reach a decision. it means that the expanded set of common sense deferred policies the ones that i announced two years ago can't go
forward and until there is a ninth justice on the court to break the tie. german officials say that a suspect at a shooting at a cinema is dead. there was a threat in the town of vierenheim which involved a weapon, but no other injuries. merrill lynch will pay a fine that it misused customer cash, saying that the brokerage unit should have deposited the customer funds in a reserve account instead of engaging in complex options trade to reduce the amount it needed to deposit and they will be a $415 million fine. and the university of texaf ruling has been upheld for the university of texas the'
affirmative action program. justice kagan had to recuse herself because she worked at the university at one time. and now, there is a set ol 482,000 claims with owners of vw beetles in the united states that have rigged emissions. and volkswagen is not commenting, but, scott, this is working out between $1,000 and $7,000 in compensation per vehicle and depending on the vehicle and the details that we have not heard of, and 10.2 billion, and that is according to the associated press is the final price tag for settling the claims with the diesel vehicles here in the united states. scott, back to you. >> thank you sh, phil. i want to standby to the talk to you about the tesla down grade, and morgan stanley's adam jonas and we know him well, and considered to be the guy, and the closely watched to and listened to voices on the stock, and at one point the most
bullish on the name, and he had come off of the price are target in the last few month, but today, he cut it even further, and downgraded the stock. can you comment? you told me earlier today in your words that the note was damning for tesla, and can you expl explain? >> absolutely. because if you are following adam jonas and you and i both follow him, and he is not somebody who screams out ridiculous ideas and he is measured in the approach, and you may disagree with it, but the approach all along is that tesla is building the vehicle and the infrastructure that will continue the grow in the future, and that why i he a price target of $333 and i believe in where tesla is going as an auto company and battery supplier with the giga factory, but in the note he said that you have done a complete turn here by saying that you want the buy solar city, and it does not mean that you are going to be building the cars better or more efficiently, and it does not help the auto business and he c cannot explain what it will do
to help tesla in the long term financially, and you can make the argument that long term thee the ret cli for the company, but what adam jonas' note is to tell the bulls with tesla, you are out there for a while without a whole lot of support, because there is nobody on wall street who is looking at this and saying, yeah, this is making sense. >> thank you, phil. great for your insight there, on that, and i was looking forward to that phil lebeau in chicago. >> and the note, the risks outweigh outweighs the rational. that is from adam jonas, and the street is sort of weighing it, and a lot of people have been opining over to the last 24 hour, and we rewaiting for adam jonas to weigh in, and now we have it. >> i am surprised that the stock is up to $195 and wait for the lawsuits to start coming, and this is a textbook case of poor corporate governance, and this ist not a public company, and no synergys with the both green in terms of the environment, but otherwise, no synergys. >> and look, it remains to be seen?
>> well, i have bought more bottles of water shopping for a car. >> and wall street says to the prove it to us. >> and look, i have bought five water bottles buying a car than solar panels, so he should buy water. >> and where is tesla mobility? a lot of the optimism that the adam had previously was bit on the fact that tesla gets in the ride-sharing business and launch an app similar to uber or looift a --lift, and that -- and lyft, and adam does not have that vision, and i agree with steven, it is a stock that is not ing to the to be seeing the upside. >> and the started at $245 and then down to $233. >> are and he also did not take into account what solar city might need for the estimates. and so he is getting the negative on tesla, and took the 2018 numbers down, and the 2018
numbers have a two-handle in front of them in terms of the earnings per share, and you are still 100 times earnings per share, and there is a deep air pocket here. >> and the space x as well in there, and who has been buying the space x bonds and who has p been buying the solarcity bonds? it is too hard. >> and space x, has a lot of the solarcity bonds. i know that there are questions out there from several invest investors -- >> and valid. >> and we had an analyst on yesterday from oppenheimer who said that the activity in the bond market suggests that solarcity has an issue with the debt. >> 100%. >> so if you are looking down the line and you say, who owns the debt, and space x owns a decent size of the debt, and i don't have the number because it is on the top of my head, but it is out there, and public knowledge that they have debt from the company, and it is some -- >> well, i did some work on it
before, and it is is stunk. >> i am sorry that we are always cutting you off. sorry. >> it happens. >> it is a tease to keep people coming back to watch. >> we will try to get more on that before we come back, for real. and coming up, john rogers from aerial is going to break down the group and what it could mean for the sector next. the "halftime report" with scott wapner is the place for moving interviews, real money, real debates.
coming up at the top of the hour on "power lunch" we are all over the vote in europe, will the uk stay or leave the e snushgs of course, how it is going to impact your port fofol and the opportunities to make money right now. and macy's is naming a new ceo and the stock is down 50% in the last year, and where the retail giant goes from here, and asia is passing the united states is one key economic metric and it is big one, and we will tell you all about it. all of that is at the top of the
hour on "power ". >> all right. mel, we will tell you all bt it, and the financials are the best performing sector, and now, investor john rogers of ariel funds is betting that it is going to turn around and he is here on set, and so pleased about it. >> thank you. >> i was expecting a remote, and so glad this you are here. i am hearing that the banks are cheap, and cheap, and you are the value guy. but they are cheap for the reason, aren't they? >> we think that there is extraordinary bargains in the financial sector, and in particular, the banking czars and 50% of the market value is 50% of the discounted market value, and it is best because of the private equity, and a lot of barga bargains out there. >> and i can see you trauing a line in the sand if you will between the firms and say money s center banks and the citis and the jpmorgans and the other
contemporary banks that we are talking about and do you like those as much? >> well, we like them because they are larger and more efficiently price ared and everybody is looking at them, and the al teternative investme areas are where the true bargains are, and so do you like these banks? you bought jpmorganing right? >> i did. >> and you bought pit day that jamie dimon did? >> yes, i thought that if the ceo is behind it, there must be something specific there, and i also talked about a stock picker's market, and when john is talking about the investment banking with thely sards and the kkr,s and jpmorgan has that and the in addition to the go into high net worth piece, and it is a buy and hold and not looking for the 20% growth tomorrow. >> and john, on the european banks, how do you go to get it
with the banks of the credit suisse and the irs, and those are significant headwinds and how are you look at those? >> those are under siege by the regulators and we will try to find the financial companies without that pressure. i met with the president of the management of the cre, the financial investmeneinvestment and looking for them, and others like that, jjl. >> and you have made the financials the largest group in the sector breakdown, and is that a newer move or adding to what has been a large position? >> we have been adding to what is a large position since the financial crisis and so much risk aversion, and so many people are afraid of the volatilities of the financial sector, and you get the companies with 10 to 11 times the earnings and relative to the stock, and these stocks are so, so cheap here.
>> and john, a question here to come at it from a different way, and play the devil's advocate which i have done, and in ters s of the kkr and la sard, and we have seen a number of the top bankers leave and they have left and taken big clients with them, and alex schwartz of guggenheim built a phenomenal team, and so we have then seen them not access the pipeline, and we rein a mature market, and when you see the interest rates will move up at some point, and all of those are mitigated against being able to, you know, exit private equity investments, and so how do you teal with that at this point in the cycle, and doesn't it denigrate the value proposition? >> and the long term, and kkr has been outperforming for so lon long, and great returns, and the great management with henry
kravts and a great global franchise, and the lazzard has the brand name, and the synergy s with the investment business and the banking business and the recovery business that they have in case the economy is weak. we like the scale, and the the best positions of the big, big glowle ball brands. >> can i ask you, because it is the story of to day, and the brexit, which we are following, do the value investor look at the major market event such as this as an opportunity to put money to work if things don't wosh out how the market expects? >> exactly right. we have been preparing for this, and we think that the volatility is your friend as warren buffett always says, and so if the brexit goes the wrong way, and the market stocks are down 10%, and the financials are down 15 or 20%,b and as value investors and contrarians we will be picking up in the bargains to buy with a lot of pressure on the markets.
>> and great to is have you with us, and thank you for spending time with us. john rogers of course with ariel investments. and why one uk investment manager wants the uk to stay. we will find out why straight ahead. we will go to london. and the stocks there penske and invesco and xerox and ppl and -- well, there they are on the screen. i laugh, i sneeze... there goes my sensitive bladder. sound familiar?
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>> welcome back to "halftime, and the polls are going to be closing in five hours to determine if britain is staying in the uk. and our next guest is vocal in remaining, and you are the ceo and founder of wynton financial capit capital, and he is going to join us exclusively today from london. david, so pleased to have you on the show today, and thank you so much for your time. >> thank you. >> how do you think it is going to play out? >> well, it is still in the lap of the gods, isn't it? but ultimately the bookies are in favor, and the markets are, you know, moving to affirm a likely remain victory, but it is still very, very uncertain. i cannot say that i know for sure, but the odds are in favor of the remain vote. >> and we said that you are
aware of the britain stronger in europe campaign, and why have you taken that stand? why is that your point of view? >> well, it is -- i think that i have taken the stand not because i have a hugely hugely strong v the political record and pros and cons. i'll leave that up to the economists. i'm a mathematician, i find it hard to be certain about anything as can you imagine. but sent. ally, i'm in favor of international cooperation and international praise. i'm proud of europe's -- britain's role in european civilization. i think european civilization is a force for good. i think it will be bat bad for britain to pull out. >> so you're a mathematician and you trust the numbers. when you look at the markets today and seat significant appreciation and the market trading so close to the historical highs, what does that tell you on a quantitative basis giving this situation with
brexit? where are we on the other side of this vote? >> right now, i'm taking heart from the positive movement to the markets. but we really won't know until the, you know, the polls come out tonight and between 10:00 tonight. the thing we can know is the exit polls. if it's a clear win one way or the other, the exit polls will tell us. otherwise, it will welcome clear through the night. the markets doll something in the short term. they'll overreact or go one way or the other. and then tomorrow, things will settle down and we'll longer term investors such as us will have a chance to reappraise what this has done to the outlook and adjust accordingly. >> who do you say to those who say, you know, in the uk to heck with the eu. to heck with bureaucrats in brussels determining the best outcome for us. what do you say to those people who clearly have mustered up
enough support to even make this a conversation today? it's a painful thing. in a sense, there are going to be some people who lose from international cooperation. i think everybody as a whole in the world is a net gainer from international trade and cooperation. i think the alternative, we've seen in the past, they're not g they're really bad. but it is hard and painful. we're terribly proud of our own cultures, regions, classes and histories. and those oftentimes are in opposition to one another. and take you through talking and painful cooperation and we can work things out together on this awfully small planet. forgetting about the brexit vote today, based upon all the indicators and modelling that you do, given where the markets
are today and you can look at the europe or the euro stocks 5600, where do you models tell that you those markets are on a fair value basis right now? versus bunge or relative value you look at? >> you know, fisher black once said that markets are efficient plus or minus 50 or 100%. and the idea that some kind of precise value. the level of bond yield is critically important to stocks and we have to figure that those are being held at fairly low levels and say if you just have 1% or 2%, you can pay high value stocks. but if those don't turn out to be 1% or 2% to the long term, if
bond yields go forward the next 20 or 30 years, stock vam u shou value should be a different factor. >> let me ask you when someone like george soros comes out and warns of what many would say are, you know, asymetric results of a leave vote, dramatic moves in a matter of moments in currencies, is there some truth to what mr. soros and others we normous amount of markets have to say on the issues? do you worry at all about that sort of thing? >> i think george soros is a great political economist. there are a the love economists in the world but not so many political economists. i think that's why he's made a fortune. as he got older, he's become more and more focused on the political side of things. he's immensely pro european. he is a fantastic construction
spending peace and unity across a continent and great interest in seeing that xenlded to eastern europe and ukraine and putting him under the banner of european civilization which after the trials of the last century sh he sees as being a good thing. i'm with him on that. >> david, i know you went across toub in what looks like nasty weather over there. we're grateful for your time today. i hope to welcome you back on the show sometime again soon. >> thank you. >> david harding, he is the founder and he is the ceo in london for us to day. coming up, twilio is soaring on the trading debut. cou courtney breaks down why she bought the stock today.
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you bought this stock immediately. >> immediately. the reasony bought it, i mean it's my play on uber. you look at the client base. you look at who they're servicing and the growth of those companies, they're going to have significant growth as we move forward. >> it's interesting. i love the strategy. i love the trade. i think it's the right trade. want to buy it right out of the gate plus this offering very small.
>> very strong and making that point earlier. >> one investor covering a double digit part of this company. this is the first price we are seeing year to date that looks really strong. i love that trade. >> let's go to macy's with a minute left that we have. big news today. >> yeah. >> they're going to be leaving in the first quarter of next year. one of the most celebrated ceos around. hard to find anybody to say anything negative other than the results that company that's delivered over the last many quarters. what do we make of this? >> yeah. look, and every company, nobody has really been immune. target was for a little while. i think it's about time that there is a change. i don't think it's a bad idea. it's a new environment versus repla replacements. terry won't be going anywhere for a little bit of time. he's getting up. there congratulations. been a great run. great yield supported now. why not buy it? >> and i love the new strategy. they did a piece recently about
how they're redoing the stores. they're focusing on the experience in the stores. people are talking could they beat amazon? they can't. you don't walk in a store and i don't buy jeans online. there is a great, great move. having a president there move into that space is great. >> it's been great having you here. >> thank you. >> we'll see you soon. that does it for us. "power lunch" begins right now. >> we begin with breaking news from washington. john harwoodson the story. >> tyler, house democrats are now bringing to a conclusion the sit-in that they staged on the house floor for more than 24 hours. they didn't succeed in getting any gun legislation passed. they did succeed in get a lot of attention. that could have political consequences down the road. but members are heading out to have a press conference outside and that siege which paul ryan the speaker just announced disorder in the house and said they weren't going to let the house stop functioning has now ended and the house is on recess