tv Options Action CNBC July 15, 2016 5:30pm-6:01pm EDT
state television has report td martial law has been imposed. also, we've been gets -- the state department telling u.s. citizens in turkey to shelter in place. and in doors, so also u.s. embassy confirming that shots were heard in ankara and both bridges in istanbul have been closed. let's update you on what's happened so far. military has claimed they have taken over turkey according to local media. the prime min stir yildirim saying there's been aattempted coup. in terms of travel, all gates have been shut. unsure and unclear whether flights attempting to land will be able to do so in turkey's largest airports, but that's the latest that we have. back to you. >> thank you so much. again, just to recap the market reaction, we have seen somewhat of a reaction on the back of
this. we have a softening o f the s&p 500 futures and a bid to safety here with the u.s. dollar rise ing against turkish lira. so, mike, welcome to the desk. what do you make f this situation in terms of the impact of the markets and how we should interpret this. >> there's a couple of things you want to think about. i meeb, first of all, from an economic standpoint, turkey's gdp is only a small fraction of what the uk is. we saw what happened there. people got rattleded. uncertainty always is going to create some volatility and a pullback, but in the grand scheme of things, the question we want to ask ask is are the economic implications going on great. i think the answer to both of those questions is probably not. i think this is going to take several days for us to really know how this is going to shake out. erdogan, whether he says he's in control now or not, clearly, he's not fully in control. and that's not like lily to be safely resolved, whether or not he comes out on the top of this or otherwise. the other thing we're going to
see is an increase in office. right now, the s&p options are probably only about 0% above their low over the post credit cris crisis period, so extremely cheap puts and my expectation is you're quoigoing to see a significant increase. >> vix closed at 12.5 today. when you b look at the futures term structure, it's like a 20 towards the end of the year. it is telling you people see risk later on, just not right now. i'm not a big believer in buying premium when you can just because it's cheap. i think it's more important to do it tactically when you're thinking about some sorts of events like this, the cumulative effect. if this is not resolved this weekend would be the best kags scenario, you're going to have
stuff lingering. >> before i saw this news, said that i thought staples were just too far, too fast and i would be a big siller. if there's one area where i know don't expect to see significant weakness relatively speaking, that would be it because it's still flight to safety. yield trade. it's probably less sensitive. >> we should note that the turkish etf, the tur, that etf, that was lower on the back of this news. so we're watching that, just sort of a proxy to the reaction on the events to the events happening in turkey. down about 5% here. >> well, look, our u.s. equity market has discounted everything. not saying of this magnitude, but stories that resemble things of this magnitude. will this be different? probably not. probably more of the same. the one, two day effect op the market, then back to where we were. to your point, colonel jacobs
was on. you can't just continue to poo poo these stories. you've got to believe their citizens will want to start to get their money out of banks. that's the first time i would do if something lake that were to happen. greece is tucked into that corner, but i can't believe this is is a positive thing for global markets. >> we talked about the dollar quickly. there was already upward pressure on the dollar. it's traded between 92.5 and 100.5. you know what it closed today? at the midpoint, about 96.5. you would make the argument or you could easily make the argument it was upward pressure after the brexit vote. the british pound today closed just a few ticks over a 31-year
low. euro has been trading between 105 and 15. the dollar has upward pressure ear and that, you talked about tligt fo safety, that seems to be. >> inflation day that that we got now at the end of this week also if you were discounting any possibility of a rate increase, as you start to see simp toms of inflation, you have to reintroduce the possibility. and that of course if we were talking about what stocks you want to be in and wh you don't, the one issue you're going to have with rising dollar is weakness for those multinationals. >> that's true. in terms of where we're seeing, this past week, guy, you pointed out, it's been a terrible week for the bond market. tlt saw 30% decline in the week alone. events like this, when you pair them up with the other events that have happened in the past couple of day, it would seem to suggest that perhaps there could
be that flight to safety. >> if you ask me monday, tlt will be hire. yields will continue to go negative. we went down 132 here in ten-year in the united states. where is it now? 156. that's a big move in a week, so can you see it back in the mid 140s, yes. i still think regardless of all the economic things we talk about, there's tremendous downward pressures on rates globally, this will do ng to help that. >> for me on what's goin on in turkey, let' bring in bob. bob, great to speak with you. it's of course a developing situation, but accord iing to ns reports, both sides have basically used the media to promote their message, so president erdogan is on a cell phone with cnn turk apparently saying that we will overcome this. while the military faction has gained control over the state broadcast eer putting their message forth.
it's a very confusing situation here. >> one of the key things is that martial law has been declared and the other thing we can see is that this was a very sophisticated operation. they went for the key communication, television, radio and transportation nexus us of the country. they closed off the bridge between europe and istanbul. they closed off the key arptds in istanbul and ankara. there were reports of militaries surrounding the ministries. reports of helicopters and f 16s over the capital. which would indicate air power. they were trying to show the coup has air power. one of the things we have been told and i haven't seen the information you just reported and erdogan and cnn turkey, is that he has been at a sea resort on avegas and had been isolated
from the rest of the government and would see only the prime minister speak on behalf of the government. not the strong man of turkey speaking. the question becomes now is how much of the this coup is being carried out by a significant portion of the military. it would appear that in fact, with this level of sophistication, this level of planning and level of excuse in a short time have gained a great deal of power quickly. zwl is it unusual perhaps that on a military side of things, the people who are trying to that there is no face of this movement? >> that is something that herbally on, you don't see in military coups like this. you wait a little while. but certainly, one o f the thins
we were told is that the head of the push irk military, general acar, was being held as a hostage in ankara in some location. so i think it's not, it's not that uncommon in a coup situation. where you would wait for a while to see the strong man of the coup take his place in front of the cameras. but i think that is is something that you'd better see by tomorrow in order for this public to understand just where this is is coming from. >> so, we have colonel jacobs on before. he mentioned that it might be better for the united states for this coup to take hold. which puts us in an interesting place, right? do we want it to, how do you support a nondemocratic coup against an existing leader in that country? >> well, the u.s. and erdogan have had increasingly difficult relations.
this further complicated this in syria. this makes the region less secure, adds to the volatility and the military situation. i'm pot sure which way the u.s. would want to go, but again, it is absolutely a fact that the u.s. relations with erdogan have been increasingly difficult over the last several years. >> when you think about the various possibilities of how this could turn out, bob, is there a scenario in which you see the becoming involved? >> i don't think there's a scenario where the u.s. would become involved, there are a number of joint u.s. turkish nato basis. one, the base at -- where there's always going to be some tension between the turkish and
u.s. forces in a situation like this. what you might see d the u.s. military taking a happeneds off role and backing off and letting things carry themselves out. i think you might see some level of concern at these joint nato bases. >> going to leave it there. thanks for joining us. nbc vest gaift reporter. so, i mean, sounds like we need something quickly to happen. >> something quickly. he pointed out you would expect to see the face basically of this coup. if they're successful, presumably, you're going to get their face one way of the other. if you see that, that is going to give some people a little bit more comfort in the direction this is taking. when it's a faceless coup, when you just see jets flying around and tanks in the streets, you don't really know who's in control. that's a very unsettling situation and i find it unlikely that the united states would support this kind of action,
whether behind the scenes, you say it wasn't working out that well for us initially. this might turn out to be a good thing in the long run if they introduce a democratic process to put somebody else? . >> i think that's the most important point. as guy said, you think about the market, your investments. your markets have really taken much more horrible things in stride over the last few years and so, i wouldn't expect a big downdra downdraft. if it does happen, to the tune of 1%, that's not what people are trading markets on. but the broader point is this, if you continue to see a bid in gold, in u.s. treasure kiries in the dollar, it speaks to the fact there is this demand for safe haven assets despite the s&p 500 being added to highs here and that's something i think is worth keeping an eye on. >> got to take a break, but back with much more on this situation in turkey. i'm here at the td ameritrade trader offices.
steve, other than making me move stuff, what are you working on? let me show you. okay. our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place and lets you visualize that information for any options series. okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. impressive... what's up, tim. td ameritrade. won't replace the full value of your totaled new car.
the guy says you picked the wrong insurance plan. no, i picked the wrong insurance company. with liberty mutual new car replacement™, you won't have to worry about replacing your car because you'll get the full value back including depreciation. and if you have more than one liberty mutual policy, you qualify for a multi-policy discount, saving you money on your car and home coverage. call for a free quote today. liberty stands with you™. liberty mutual insurance. here at the td ameritrade they work all the time. sup jj, working hard? working 24/7 on mobile trader, rated #1 trading app on the app store. it lets you trade stocks, options, futures... even advanced orders. and it offers more charts than a lot of other competitors do on desktop.
you work so late. i guess you don't see your family very much? i see them all the time. did you finish your derivatives pricing model, honey? td ameritrade. more news now on the situation in turkey. the president is communicating with a people of turkey by an unusual method. >> erdogan, the head of the party, prime minister, has been the president of the country. people have been wondering where he is and he's making contact with cnn turkey. a local media group and he's saying that the coup attempt will not succeed. he said they'll pay a heavy
price and those will face trial. he goes on for calling, the push irk public to take to the streets against the coup attempt. i want to bring up again the travel alerts from the u.s. state department because we have been hearing from the u.s. state department and telling all u.s. citizens in turkey to shelter p place. stay in doors. turkish state television saying martial law has been imposed. >> thanks so much. we know u.s. bound flights traveling from istanbul, which are already in the air, will be allowed to land here in the united states. this according to the faa. as reported by reuters at this hour. in terms of the sectors that we would normally look to, already, the travel stocks were hit today because of what happened in nice, france, yesterday. >> defense stocks. people will rage against these
names. i'll say this at the risk of sounding dopey, but in this swas, i don't think valuation matters. i think defense spending goes up. these guys are well run companies with a global reach. lockheed martin is my favorite in the space. own on a general die ma'amics too. >> the valuation is about comparable. you're talking about lockheed trading at 19 to 20 times forward earnings and there isn't a single soul in washington who wants to put their name on le deucing defense spending. that's political suicide most likely. so i don't think you're going to see that. in fact, i was looking at these earlier today, just net of what happened in nice and this only adds to that. only travel to europe? people have to be having second thoughts. this is the border of course of europe, but this is is one of these things where you're talking a look at potential terrorism. we have belgium, france, now, this. it's got to be disruptive. the airlines were cheen, but aren't going to catch a bit on this. >> on the right side of your screen, we were looking at
iphone apparently president erdogan of turkey was communicating with the public by facebook live and so, they were showing a shot of face time. gl facebook live, all -- >> there you have it. there's the shot. modern method of communication for the president. i think the real was on guidance. because of the lead up into the end of the quarter with the brexit vote, what this does is places a whole lot of uncertainty now for forward guidance and so, in some ways, you could say that okay, maybe it gives another mulligan right now, but i think it's really important going back to the dollar, when a lot of companies gave guidance. the dollar, especially for multinational, was with 2, 3% lower. now, it's hire and likely to continue to have a bid under it, so that could be something that
suppresses forward guidance into the meat of q 2 earnings. >> going to take a quick break, but we'll have more on the coup in turkey on the other side. stay tuned. i'm here at the td ameritrade trader offices. steve, other than making me move stuff, what are you working on? let me show you. okay. our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place and lets you visualize that information for any options series. okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. impressive... what's up, tim. td ameritrade.
you work so late. i guess you don't see your family very much? i see them all the time. did you finish your derivatives pricing model, honey? td ameritrade. coverage continues with ray on. what is the situation on the ground as we understand it, the president erdogan has called on the people to protest the coup in the streets and public squares. >> yes, that's correct. we are in shock. people are crying on the streets. we were having a nice dinner out and we just realized that the cars are no longer passing and then we checked the social media and there were a lot of information, misleading
information, then we saw some pictures, military holding the bridges, both of the bridges, actually, and then the -- actually like we couldn't find a taxi to come back home. we have to walk two, three kilometers and then there are long lines at the atms. people are trying to withdraw money and people cry iing tryin to like -- we just saw like two cars in the car crash, people are really inpanic. now at the moment, there's a, the government tv is totally shut down. they're making a broadcast, but people are saying that this might be a pirate broadcast because turkey's top general is
is being held hostage, one of the news that's coming, but at this time, it's very, very soon to confirm this information. we know president erdogan made the statement and called people to go on the streets and fight for their right, fight for democracy. >> you work for trt and there are reports that the military has taken over the offices, forcing the journalists to make statements on behalf of the people who were trying to enforce this coup here. they're also some reports that there were explosions close to those offices. ve you been in touch with cloegs about this at all? >> i mean, as far as i could hear from the groups and so on, people at the television in istanbul who are based here, apparently, the military went there and all the phones of the workers were confiscated and sent home. and apparently, i have really
liked we should say this is not concern, but there are lots of information and apparently, they say there's manager going on in ankara and the trt. building, so it's everything is vague. we cannot say, i cannot confirm anything. what i can confirm is like we are in shock, i can really, as a citizen, a journalist, really scared. we can hear fires being shot and we see a warplanes crossing. it's like this over into our everything is changing. i don't know what's going o happen. >> we appreciate your filling in. thank you so much. be safe. journalist with trt in istanbul. gunfire can be heard from the street, citizens are panicking and they're making a run to the atms.
i'm here at the td ameritrade trader offices. steve, other than making me move stuff, what are you working on? let me show you. okay. our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place and lets you visualize that information for any options series. okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. impressive... what's up, tim. td ameritrade.
using crest toothpaste and mouthwash makes my... ...whole mouth feel awesome. and my teeth are stronger too. crest-pro health advanced... ...is superior to colgate total... ...in these 5 areas dentists check. this check up? so good. go pro with crest pro-health advanced. mom's right...again! here at the td ameritrade they work all the time. sup jj, working hard? working 24/7 on mobile trader, rated #1 trading app on the app store. it lets you trade stocks, options, futures... even advanced orders. and it offers more charts than a lot of other competitors do on desktop. you work so late. i guess you don't see your family very much? i see them all the time. did you finish your derivatives pricing model, honey? td ameritrade. we've been following a military coup. turkish military troops have announced a cur few and martial
law. turkey's government has encouraged people to take to the treat to protest, saying everything would be done to put down the attempt. go cnbc.com for that. "mad money" starts right now. my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now! hey, i'm cramer! welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to help you save some money. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me@jimcramer. no sleep next week. no sleep for the next three weeks. why? because we're about to enter the valley of the shadow of the real earnings season, and it'