tv Power Lunch CNBC July 28, 2016 1:00pm-3:01pm EDT
told twice as many out of the money calls. i'm still in it. >> you weren't sold, pete? >> i loved it, but i talked him into it. >> groupon. buy, sell, hold. >> sell. >> thanks for being here. appreciate it. >> thanks to all of you for being here. "power lunch." i'm tyler matheson. good afternoon, everyone, and welcome. we've got a trifecta, a hat trick, a triple play of battlegrounds today, from wall street to the race for the white house. a megadeal in the cloud. cloud wars. rising fear that a car crisis could be coming. car wars. and an escalating war of words between hillary clinton and donald trump, candidate wars. we get set to kick off the final day of the democratic national convention.
tonight, hillary clinton officially accepts her party's nomination, and just minutes from now, we're going to speak with one of wall street's biggest backers of the clinton campai campaign, mark lazri. that's katy perry doing a sound check. she's wearing a black baseball cap that says hrc for hillary rodham clinton. >> i'm assuming you can hear her roar. >> right now, in fact. >> welcome to the busiest earnings day of the quarter. the dow is down, but apple continuing its solid run. your big dow laggard right now happens to be boeing, down about 2%. let's get downtown, and our own bob pisani with a scorecard on earnings season as we officially reach the halfway mark. bob, how are we doing? >> the numbers are slowly improving, but still negative. let's look at the second quarter scorecard. the s&p 500 as a whole, these are companies reporting as well
as companies that haven't yet reported, what we call the blended earnings rate, down 2.8%. that's not good. it's still negative, but it's better than it was a few days ago when it was down 3.7%. so the earnings narrative is very simple. we were supposed to have bottomed out in the first quarter. let's take a look. so far, that narrative is holding up. we were down 5% on earnings in the first quarter. right now, in the second quarter down 2.8%. and we're scheduled to go positive, 1% in the third quarter, and notably positive in the fourth quarter. the key story is ending four quarters of negative earnings growth. that's what we call that earnings recession. so here is the key issues for the second half. brexit in china quiet right now, but oil is a major problem at $41. dollars have been a lot stronger recently and that also could be a problem for major multi-nationals, including companies like colgate. overall, it's too soon to call an end to that earnings
recession, the four consecutive quarters of negative growth. but q1 was likely the bottom for earnings and second half guidance is holding up. that's the key reason the s&p 500 has been holding up near the highs. back to you. >> let's go back down to philadelphia and michelle live at the dnc. hi, michelle. >> hi there, tyler. the countdown is on to hillary clinton's big speech, and all week leading up to her big night, speakers have been making the case that donald trump is unfit to serve. last night, michael bloomberg took his wax at the fellow new york billionaire. >> i'm a new yorker, and i know a con when i see one. >> here, another new york billionaire, mark lazri, $13 billion hedge fund, where chelsea clinton once worked. good to have you here. >> a pleasure. thank you for having me. >> we're using the stick mics in
case katy perry starts singing again. chelsea clinton worked for you. she's got to make a speech for you. is she going to have what it takes to deliver votes to her mother? >> yes, i think what you're going to find, she's exceptionally bright. she's a great speaker. phenomenal human being. i think you're going to find a phenomenal speech. >> if speech have done any searches on the dnc wikileaks, your name comes up. not your e-mail, but you're referred to. >> i am. >> you're on a list of people who could be invited to play golf with obama. did they invite you? >> they did. >> did you go? >> no, i don't really play golf. >> was it nice to be asked? >> it was very nice. i think it's very nice any time you can spend time with the president of the united states, i think it's a real honor. i would have loved to, other than the fact i think it would have been very boring for him to be on a golf course with me. >> there's another e-mail where you are referred to.
responding to a question about you. they're going to come to you for money. she says we're asking for $100,000 for the convention. do you want a different ask? did they hit you up? >> they've asked. i haven't given yet. >> are you going to? >> probably. >> 100 grand? more than that? >> i don't know what the number is yet, but i'll probably end up donating. >> how do you think about it? >> i think part of it is, look, we have to do our bit. my view is i've been phenomenally lucky. i wasn't born here. i was able to come to this country. i think it's a real honor at times to be able to do some of the things that i'm doing. >> when people look at this, and you're not the only one, they make references to it. and "the new york times" described when they read through all these e-mails as the incredibly revealing sometimes ingratiating transactional nature of money in politics. i think some people look at it and say they're disgusted by it.
should they be? >> i think, look, i think it's people's opinions. i don't have a problem if somebody is upset about it or if they're not. i think for me, if i'm giving to the democratic party, it's because i want to end up helping others. i think that's sort of my view about it. i think at times it does get a little bit crazy because you're being asked to give quite a bit of money. and i think what you'll find, for me, i'll never give to a super pac. i'm happy to give what the federal limits are, in essence what the government says you're allowed to do. >> is there too much money in politics? >> yeah, i think there's way too much money in politics, yes. >> should there be anything done about that? >> i think people are trying to do that. i think what they had done when they had limited -- before super pac s, when there were federal limits, i thought that was great.
>> brian? >> hey, brian. >> good luck to your bucks. the milwaukee bucks this year. you and i have spoken in the past. you're the son of a schoolteacher. you were raised in an extremely middle class guy. you've now achieved wealth and fame. wall street is blamed for a lot of things. some of it well deserved, maybe some of it not so much. you're a wall street guy. how does that feel? you're talking to the leaders here, are there times when you've had to sort of stick up for wall street? >> well, you do. at the end of the day, in any industry, there's going to be some bad guys and i think we have our fair share. but the vast majority of everybody, and i think in any industry, whether it's wall street or anything else, everybody's trying to do good and everybody's trying to help. i think what i do when i'm talking to people is try to explain, you know, everything that wall street is trying to
do. we're trying to help the economy and trying to help this country. >> do you get ticked off sometimes? >> i'm sorry? >> do you get angry sometimes? >> ticked off. >> oh, i don't know if it's angry. i think you get very frustrated. i think frustration is a better word. then you sort of put your head down and say look, this is going to take a while and you keep on working it. i look at this like it's going to take five or ten years. for wall street, it can get its good name back. >> there was a time when it was talked about you being the ambassador to france potentially under barack obama when hillary clinton was running the state department. that didn't happen. do you have any still diplomatic aspirations if she becomes president? >> i think it would be great to serve your country. the problem is with all the costs and the conflicts that are there, it's just too hard. for what i'm doing, i love it.
i think it's great. i'm able to invest capital for our investors and for myself. it's something i love and it's something i'll continue doing. >> when you say the costs and conflict, you wouldn't really have to take that position. you would have to completely disengage from the other, correct? >> that's correct. and that's something i wouldn't be prepared to do. >> tyler. >> mark, would you favor higher taxes on super wealthy individuals like yourself, number one? and do you favor a repeal of the carried interest rule in taxes? >> look, i think ultimately, at the end of the day, taxes are probably going to go up. and i think that's fine. the question is by how much. and regarding the carried interest, i think to me, whether we pay ordinary income or capital gains, i don't have a problem with us playing ordinary income. i know a number of you are trying to keep the carried interest. but if you're asking my personal
opinion, i don't have a problem with it at all. >> on july 18th -- we can turn to the markets, before we let you go. you were on cnbc july 18th. >> yes. >> and you said the continued rise in the stock market didn't make sense to you. you still feel that way right now? >> i do, but at the end of the day, if the market is going to continue going up, really what that's saying is the economy is fine. what we do, where we're purely a dead investor, at the end of the day, that's all good. if equities keep going up, that means the value of our debt also is going up because there's more equity value. >> and you're more likely to get paid back. >> much, much more likely to get paid back, yes. >> there were concerns about whether or not there's issues the economy. >> look, i think the economy is doing fine. i'm not a big believer that the economy is going to do 2% or 3%. but i do think the economy is going to at least doing 1% to 2%. and that's fine. if it does better, that's great. >> are we a nation that 1% or 2% is fine? >> no, you want to be making 3% or 4%. i totally agree.
the question is can we get there. and hopefully we can. but if you're make 1% to 2%, that means you're growing. you're not growing by as much as you want, but at least you're growing. and that's the goal. if your downside is one to two, and your upside is three to four, you're going to want to take that. >> thank you so much, mr. lasry. you enjoy katy perry? >> yeah. >> she stops now that we've finished the interview. marc lasry, thanks so much. tyler? >> michelle, thank you. bond market news alert. seven-year notes up for auction. rick santelli tracking the action. what's the demand, rick? >> well, just as marc said, if you can make 1.5% to 2% sound good, i can make a really mediocre c grade for this auction seem wonderful when you look at how horrible the previous two have been. 28 billion, seven-year notes. yield at dutch auction. 1.34. pretty much where the market was trading up at the end.
65.5. indirect is a little better. that is actually, other than the last auction, had to go back to february of 2013 to find a lower one. dealers take 26.8%. but a c isn't bad, but in a way it is. investors still scratching their heads trying to interpret all the variables and i don't think the bank of japan tonight is going to make it any easier. tyler and the gang, back to you. >> all right, rick, thank you very much. coming up, the cloud. you can't go a day without hearing about it. oracle betting billions more on it. everybody's talk about it. but what exactly is it? a rundown of the cloud and some of the key cloud players that maybe are the next to get bought, coming up. i asked my dentist if an electric toothbrush was
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welcome back. your big corporate story today, oracle buying cloud competing company net suite for $9.3 billion. it continues oracle's push into the cloud. it also makes oracle founder larry ellison even more of an uber billionaire since he also co-founded netsuite and is its biggest shareholder. kind of like a quarterback throwing a long touchdown pass to himself. that said, you can't go a day without hearing about this thing called "the cloud."
what is it and who's in it? to massively oversimplify, the cloud is any software running from somewhere other than your desk top or on a nearby server. and that way, microsoft's old hotmail is in some ways cloud computing. microsoft, google, alphabet, and amazon are really the big three big players right now providing everything from e-mail to file sharing to pushing software to your computer from some other location. now, oracle and sales force are making big moves into the space, like that $9 billion deal that was done today. and that is leading a lot of people to wonder, what other companies may be targets? there's no way to know for sure, but here are some of the smaller and mid cap players in various cloud computing sectors. you've got workday. ultimate software. service now. tyler technologies. and zen desk. again, there are others. those are just five names that stuck out to us. now, let's bring in an analyst
with piper jaf rhfre. our own john fort also with us now. alex, any of those companies that we just mentioned, or maybe some others that you cover, do you believe ripe for a buyout? >> yeah, brian, thanks for having me on. i'd say, you know, you can look at service now as one of the really scaled platforms in the space. the stock was indicated down 5%, their reported earnings yesterday, stocks up 5% today. i think that would be a transformational acquisition on par with, you know, microsoft's acquisition of linkedin. you look at an ultimate software, which really has what we think is a dominant market position in human capital management. we also think zendesk makes a tremendous amount of sense for a number of vendors looking to leverage the power of customer satisfaction. also we think it makes sense for a tuck-in for somebody like an
s.a.p. >> i think it's really important to realize what stage we're in right now with the cloud. we've got these infrastructure companies, infrastructure as a service, sort of the hardware portion of the cloud. that's amazon. that's microsoft. google and oracle trying to get stronger in there. but amazon and microsoft far and away ahead. we're in this period where those who are strong are trying to get stronger and distance themselves from the pack. now, this clearly makes sense from netsuite's point of view. it is an application player. it neetds to get beefed up in order to grow. oracle clearly thinks that in some way, this is beneficial to them, loading their cloud. versus them ending up -- they're probably not going to end up with amazon. ellison's got 40%. >> you can get it. >> if you're larry ellison.
>> they say larry ellison was not involved himself in discussions about the specific deal. and his shares won't count in what needs to be voted. >> to john's point, there's a big difference between gmail and google sheets. and some of these enterprise. the corporate sides of the transactions. that's where netsuite lives. who else is in that enterprise space where we wouldn't talk about them in our day-to-day lives but the i.t. heads at our companies would? >> i think sales force is the one that really sticks out. you can look as recently as just last year when there were all kinds of speculations floating around about microsoft and sales force. it's how you do your payroll. i get paid every month. when i go online, i can check who's paying me.
it's in the cloud. those are two that are obvious ones that stick out. >> it's a company that was sort of people soft, built all over again by the people who built people software, basically drummed out by larry ellison, when oracle did its takeover. workday is there, but it's unclear where it might end up. they're very close to sales force and mark benioff, so sales force sort of plays as a potential acquirer, because it's been so successful in the cloud, from an application and increasingly platform perspective. but also potentially acquired by the likes of microsoft. >> going to alex, i know we've got to wrap. is sales force at a $55 billion market cap, slap a 30% premium on that, pretty much you're
looking at $70 billion. are they too big to get bought? or could an ibm, who needs to grow in this space, just throw caution to the wind and throw the money down? and i have no knowledge. i'm just throwing ibm's name out there because they're the name we haven't talked about. >> you know, brian, that's a great question. i think some people will speculate that sales force is too big. i'm not one of them. i think that we are still, you know, maybe in the early innings of really a transformation in enterprise software, and i think software in general. so, you know, i don't -- i can't say that's not a possibility sometime in the future. >> it would have to be google, microsoft, or amazon, i think, to take out sales force. i mean, ibm, sure, it's still pretty big, but i doubt mark benioff goes to someone who looks like ibm looks right now. i mean, they're certainly in the hunt. they're certainly trying to burnish their cloud credentials, but i can't see mark benioff selling to ibm, which represents
the traditional enterprise that he's been railing against for so long. microsoft has turned the corner on that score for quite a bit. >> is the cloud becoming so much of a fad that as an investment play, that it's time to be cautious about it? >> no, but it has become so mainstream that you can pretty much take it for granted. it's not some wild new thing where if you close your eyes and throw a dart at a cloud company you can expect it to do well. now you have to think about who's really got strategic advantage in the cloud, or who's a really worthwhile asset who's got something nobody else has gotten. >> but it's an overused word. nobody's putting their floppy disc into their computer and downloading software anymore. i argued this two years ago, that we should stop calling it cloud computing. it's just computing now. >> it's like the old dotcom. everybody was a dotcom, because -- >> http:// -- >> this is the time we needed to
distinguish between google and microsoft when deciding where to put your money ten to 15 years ago. just because it's got dotcom and users -- >> i still use lycos. excite at home. >> alta vista. >> now you're just bragging. >> thank you very much. >> sales of harley dickinson disappointing. we're going to find out what politics have to do with it next, in this revved up edition of "power lunch." there you see the stock, basically flat on the day, down 13% over the past 12 months. an. but she's a dentist so...i kind of have to listen. she said "jen, go pro with crest pro-health advanced." advance to healthier gums... ...and stronger teeth from day one. using crest toothpaste and mouthwash makes my... ...whole mouth feel awesome. and my teeth are stronger too. crest-pro health advanced... ...is superior to colgate total... ...in these 5 areas dentists check. this check up? so good. go pro with crest pro-health advanced. mom's right...again!
infinera shares are getting whacked, down more than 30%. this comes after earnings. nomura security titled thesis demolished. jp morgan chase, raymond james, and others. still to come, ford shares also down, although not nearly that much, with an earnings miss from ford. we're going to dig into why that is raising some fears of the auto rebound that we have seen in the last few years may finally be skidding to a halt. first, let's send it back to michelle at the dnc in philly with what is coming up. >> we've got a lot more coming up. hoping to talk to a bernie sanders delegate. what do they do now?
just like the ted cruz delegates at the rnc. when you walk into the booth in november, your candidate's name isn't there. so what are you going to do? clinton or trump? that's the big question. we're also going to discuss just how big a footprint or fingerprint bernie sanders has left on the democratic party at this point, moving so far to the left. what is that going to mean when it comes to november? and also discuss, is donald trump going to try to hijack this thing all over again tomorrow after hillary clinton speaks tonight? that and more, coming up on "power lunch." hello prashant b. co-founder of the fintech services start-up. hello watson. your analysis of social media and conversations on various trading floors, helps us uncover insights. insights that help investors predict market closes, well before markets close. you know, your analysis has helped us improve our predictive accuracy by over 500%. 550.2, to be precise, but we can always do better.
hi, everybody. i'm sue herera. here's your cnbc news update for this hour. senate minority leader harry reid says republicans in congress are to blame for lifting donald trump to the top of the gop ticket. he's calling for trump to receive fake national security briefings and not to divulge anything important. >> what i've suggested to the cia and i'll suggest it here, i would hope they would give him fake intelligence briefings, because they shouldn't give him
anything that means anything. because you can't trust him. pope francis riding with young people with disabilities through part of the heart of krakow on an electric train. he's visiting the country to participate in world youth day. incessant rains in nepal have caused flash flooding and landslides, killing at least 58 people. helicopters rescuing people stranded on the banks of a river. june through september is the monsoon season in nepal. a new study by the insurance institute for highway safety shows that red light cameras actually save lives. it said fatal crashes from people who run red lights go up by almost 1/3 when red light cameras are turned off. that is the cnbc news update this hour. back to you, ty. >> thank you very much, sue. let's get some breaking news now from kate kelly, the activist investor who just acquired a
stake in buffalo wild wings at it again. what are they buying now? >> i'm told by somebody familiar with the position that mercado has taken a stake of more than 5% in the industrial crane manufacturer terex, the connecticut-based company that recently saw a plan takeover by the chinese equipment maker zoom line collapse. mercado believes there's value to be had in looking strategically at this name, potentially selling off certain parts of the company, but not all, while streamlining others, trying to realize cost savings and restructuring efforts that may make the margins a little bit wider and the company more profitable. they're also fans, i understand, of the ceo john garrison jr. one model for this shareholder plan could be karl icon's activism, another crane company that icahn bought shares of.car activism, another crane company that icahn bought shares of.
mercado, a san francisco-based hem fund, runs about $1.5 billion. it's been active with bank of new york, and as you mentioned, earlier this week, they announced a new stake in buffalo wild wings. the effort there, i understand, is to see more of an embracing of the franchising business rather than bringing restaurants in-house. >> so what, again, is his play with terex? what would he like to see them do? >> so it's a business with multiple different parts, and essentially i think they want to see a study of each part to determine what makes the most sense. a couple of piece, it sounds like mercado would like to see sold off. however, in other cases, they want to see if through restructuring business lines and perhaps cost savings, things like that, they can make the company leaner and more profitable. but they think it's undervalued, as you do, when you go long on a stock. it's trading at about $23 as of today. >> and the stock is halted, we should point out. >> is that right? mercado got in the high teens,
low 20s. they think it could see a much higher multiple. sol there's some bullish sentiment out there. two foreign competitors thought about buying it. last year co that cranes tried to take over terex, only to be interrupted by this chinese company zoomline, so the one deal fell apart because of the competitor deal and that deal fell apart as well. >> kate, a comment and a question. terex may be a little odd, they have a big investment or had. focused on the consumer space. so terex may be a left turn for them. but the question is this. as someone who followed a hedge fund for years, don't you find it interesting that as the alpha in the market tends to go away, hedge funds aren't basically outperforming the s&p 500, that more and more players seem to be going into activism? what i hear is that hey, these
days it's the only way you can make money in a hedge fund. >> that's an interesting observation. activism has done well. i know that year-to-date, it's been a fairly winning strategy. and studies have shown that activists by and large seem to have a positive impact on the names that they purchase and become more engaged with over a five-year period. there's a harvard study that shows you'll see an upside in the stock. that's worth noting. the ideas are hard to come by. one thing wwe seen is the problem with crowding. you think about bill act man and valeant pharmaceuticals. i might say mark mcgwire was a protege of bill ackman at one point.
this is obviously his latest move. >> all right, kate, thank you very much. let's move over to dominic chu for a quick market flash. >> both rising over the course of the mid afternoon here, as you can see. and this was on the heels of bloomberg headlines, saying a number of miller's larger shareholders were seen backing this particular deal. that's according to sources with familiar situations. yesterday we had the same discussion because there was skepticism because s.a.b. miller was said to have halted the immigration work they were doing to evaluate a new deal that was put forward. also want to point out, coors moving because they could be a beneficiary in case sab miller-ab inbev combined has to
sell assets. >> thank you very much. also in the news today, harley davidson. yeah, the stock mildly higher right now. but jane wells was on the conference call. the stock being up a bit today does not reflect at all what you heard on that call, does it? >> no. i call it the sad trombone call. turns out u.s. sales fell a lot more than expected last quarter. >> clearly, this is a disappointment. >> okay, not all bad news. it did gain market share in the quarter. and the ceo says they have no plans to discount their way out of this. "we're in challenging times, political, economic, and cultural forces are working against confidence and security for people everywhere in the world, so i guess that affects
motorcycle sales." back to you. >> thank you very much. let's get now to the bond market. rick santelli is tracking the bond action -- is there bond action at the cme today, rick? >> there's always bond action. it's just a matter of how much action. with today's better than expected seven-year, compared to the dog style ds of the previous two auctions looked pretty good. but look at it intraday seven-year and think of sully's question. look at the one week of tens. but maybe the biggest story continues to be the dollar index. a bit counterintuitive. look at the intraday chart. dollar on the highs. interest rate yields moving down. it all makes a bit more sense. back to you. >> facebook investors, congratulations. you just hit a mini jackpot.
can those good times last? let's bring in mark lehman. welcome. good to have you with us. is facebook -- i mean, they seem to be clicking in every single way. is the company out over its skis a little bit in terms of the valuation of the stock? >> clearly the stock has performed mightily in the last couple years, like you noted. they have accelerated the growth, like you've talked about all day long. let's remember -- and i said it on the show before. they have a world cup finals every day multiple times a day. they figured out how to monetize those platforms pretty well.
i would expect this continued montization. it's some of the things people are not talking about. >> what are those tail winds that people aren't talking about? >> why did unilever pay a billion dollars for shave club. this is a name that is well regarded by investors. this is an investor base that buys their razors online. clearly they thought, hm, maybe they know something about the consumer more than we do. that's a metaphor for what facebook has for all their advertisers. what do they buy, when do they buy? look at the electoral season
coming i. they'll pinpoint electoral districts better than any tierz around. that flexibility is not new to facebook. i think what's going to happen through the rest of the year and into '17 and beyond. >> do they have the best management in the business? >> i think they do. you look at the stalled growth of twitter and the numbers of other companies, it's clearly extraordinary what they're doing. and how they stick to it. this is the most mercantile company i think we've seen in the last 20 years. how they monetize things. how they pinpoint things. how they go out and do something. post ipo, they didn't have a mobile strategy. today they have the mobile strategy. i don't think it's slowing down. >> what do you think their share of the ad market ultimately will be? >> you know, tyler, that's a great question. i mean, i think it is unlimited currently by a competitive
landscape, right? boy, they've got to watch out for amazon. i'm not quite sure there is one currently. that being said, there's going to be, right? innovation never slows down. this country is great at innovating. that's not going to change. right now, i don't see it. i think advertisers are more importantly not seeing it. >> thank you very much. mark lehmanm of jmp securities. >> up next, we're going to head to aspen, sadly, not really. what do the experts there think about donald trump's comments about russia? walter isakson, power lunch premier guest coming up next. hey gary, what'd you got here?
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contemporary topics. first, i want to ask you a question that springs out of them more broadly. the internet and its success, it seems to me, is largely based on the trust that consumers and users have in it. what happens if people stop trusting the internet? >> i think we're already starting to see that, tyler. everybody can get hacked. there's a whole lot of insecurity in the internet. everybody here in aspen talks about the fact that it's almost impossible to make it safe. i think one of the next big
plays over the next five to ten years is a possibility of somebody creating or some groups creating an alternative more security layer on the internet. perhaps not even based on tcp ip, the protocols we use for the internet. so that when we're communicating with our banks or health records or insurance companies, we need a way to do it more securely. that costs a lot of money. but thousand we're spending trillions, not just on cyber security, but on the lost ability to trust things, trust e-mails, trust servers on the internet that they're secure. >> you see it as a real threat to the future of the internet and many of the businesses built on it. let me play -- >> the fact that we cannot really be verified and trusted on the internet now, there's got to be a way, whether it's something like an evolution of the block chain, or a way of
creating a secure layer on the internet so that people can communicate with banks, their doctors or whatever. and know that it's secure. at least banks can communicate with each other without thinking their servers are going to be hacked. >> i want to play for -- i'm sure you've never seen the byte from donald trump yesterday where he talked about inviting, if that is indeed what he did, inviting the russians. let's get your reaction. >> russia, if you're listening, i hope you're able to find the 30,000 e-mails that are missing. i think you will probably be rewarded mightily by our press. >> he was tweaking everything a little bit there, walter, it seems to me. how do you react to that and how do the people who are gathered there with you react to that kind of comment from mr. trump? >> here in aspen, you have really the top security officials of this nation,
whether it be from the cia or the dni or the defense department, or people who have been in charge of homeland security. and all of them are deeply, deeply worried. leave aside the politics for a moment. with the notion that foreign governments can use -- can influence our political system through hacking in. say it's the russians. we try here in this security conference to figure out what are our critical infrastructures that need to be protected. and we always start with things like the electricity grid, or our ports or whatever. i think the discussion today, especially in light of the possibility that russia has hacked into and trying to influence the political system, is does that rise to the level of a critical infrastructure and does it demand a retaliation. this is a serious, serious issue. people say if the electricity grid goes down, we're in trouble. if our democracy goes down.
if russia can influence our electoral system, that is an even bigger issue. and i think that's what people here are talking about. and they're somewhat stunned by all of this. >> they're less concerned, if i could just -- if i'm interpreting you correctly, they're less concerned about what mr. trump said or didn't say, but by the very fact that apparently russian state sponsored actor tos did hack the dnc and then did release that information, and that that in itself is the threat. >> nobody here officially has said that it was russia or said that on the record. but they are concerned that this is a critical infrastructure need, and it's not -- i assume donald trump -- i don't know if he was joking or being sarcastic. but it's not considered here particularly a joking matter. i think people want to steer clear of the politics, but the fact that people aren't taking this seriously is very bothersome. we've had a group led by michael
chernov, secretary of homeland security, and jane harmon, and they pulled together some officials and they're about to release a statement about how critical this is that we protect this infrastructure and our political system from a hack, whether or not it's from russia, whether it's inspired by donald trump. they're leaving that part out. but they're saying that this is something we've got to take very seriously. and this is a critical infrastructure. >> walter, it's brian sullivan. i understand the focus on russia, and in many ways trump did it to himself. about half the press conference seemed to mention putin or russia. who else, though? let's forget russia for a moment. do we need to worry about? north korea? are they a real threat or a hollow tiger? is it china? what else are you guys discussing as possible threats? >> one of the things that surprised me, and i won't quote all of them by name, but these
are some of the top officials, is that china is cooperating more, not less. and things have gotten better in relations with china. with russia, it's the other way. i think the main concern here, too, besides the critical infrastructure hacking issue is these lone wolves and self-radicalized jihadists. and for that, they still believe that isil, as they lose on the battlefield, as they're about to lose in mosul even, that they're using the internet to attack us and to help people self-radicalize in this country which means that you have to have a different type of battle. it's not really taking the battle to them in the middle east. you have to go to the muslim communities around this country, and sort of say help us, if you see something, say something. so it's a way to stop this -- these sort of crazy people who decide to radicalize themselves
and claim they're doing it because they read a tweet from isil or something. >> i was going to ask you which of your books on these various slackers that you've written about, kissinger, franklin, einstein, jobs, you'd recommend to our presidential candidates. you've had jobs appointed by president george w. bush and by secretary clinton. is there any job in government that would interest you right now? >> oh, no. i think there are a lot of people who go into the next administration. i'm very happy here writing books and i'm not sure that i'll bring a whole lot to the party. the one book i would recommend that, you know, the person i in some ways would most like to have a beer with is benjamin franklin. benjamin franklin was somebody -- he really knew that the strength of our country was bringing people together with different backgrounds and different ideologies, and saying we can find our common ground.
we can find sensible solutions. and i just -- you don't have to read my book. i just hope people read about ben franklin if they're going to be entering the next administration. >> i think he liked a beer, every now and then, from what i read. >> oh, yeah. he helped invent his own kegs of ale. when george washington came to philadelphia for that momentous constitutional convention, there was ben franklin at his house on market street cracking open a keg of ale for him. >> what did he say, beer is proof god loves us and wants us to be happy. >> walter, always good to see you. looks beautiful out there. walter isaacson of the aspen institute. we'll be back to michelle at the dnc. >> speaking of philadelphia and benjamin franklin. insurance started here, too. that was his company. coming up, we're going to talk to one of the bernie sanders delegates. what are they going to do now? what do they do in november now that bernie sanders isn't on the ticket? they've shown incredible deference to bernie sanders in
two huge earnings reports. we will give you the lowdown ahead of the results, just minutes from now. two hours, three minutes. and then there's, of course, the other countdown to hillary clinton's night at the dnc. she'll take the stage, accept the nomination, and make history. but will she win over a primetime audience? "power lunch" returns in two minutes. you tell your insurance company they made a mistake. the check they sent isn't enough to replace your totaled new car. the guy says they didn't make the mistake. you made the mistake. i beg your pardon? he says, you should have chosen full-car replacement. excuse me? let me be frank, he says. you picked the wrong insurance plan. no, i picked the wrong insurance company. with liberty mutual new car replacement™,
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market moving earnings will cross at 4:00 eastern. we are counting down to the biggest speech of all in philadelphia. presidential candidate hillary clinton taking center stage to lay out her agenda to the american people. front and center this hour, the street. ford stock is on an earnings miss. phil lebeau joining us with more on ford. tough day for the company. >> really tough, brian. this is the worst day for ford
stocks since 2011. take a look at the earnings the company posted. 52 cents a share, well below the estimate of 60 cents a share. its earnings guidance for 2016 is now at risk. it's not an out-and-out warning, but a soft warning of saying we may not be able to hit the target that we set earlier this year. it was up more than a billion dollars in terms of incentive spending. that averages to an increase of $438 per vehicle. that's greater than what the industry saw overall in terms of the increased incentives. and on the conference call with analysts, ceo mark fields talked about the pressure the company is feeling to do more now in order to lock in sales. >> now it's really about replacement value.
in addition, you've seen used car prices go down. when used car prices go down, there's an impact on the new car market. >> they're up substantially in part because they're going a year over year lapping with incentives for the f series, which were not very high a year ago. there is an increase there. but it's far greater than fiat chrysler. look at gm. at the same time, the focus in north america is increasingly on truck and suv sales. sergio marshione confirmed they ultimately plan to only makes trucks and suvs in the u.s., they expect that to happen by the first quarter of 2017. you're looking at an industry with higher incentives and those are cutting into the most
profitable vehicles, which are trucks and suvs. >> so they're not going to make any cars -- the challenger made in canada. the dodge dart. they're not going to stop making the cars, and no one's going to lose their job as we know it. they're simply going to replace the u.s. production with trucks or suvs, right? so no one's going to get a pink slip from this, that we know of. >> right. in fact, they're adding jobs. so no jobs are being cut. it's simply sergio realizing what are the most profitable vehicles i am going to sell? trucks and suvs. what's the hottest brand going right now? jeep. how do i leverage that? i put that production into north america. you take the low margin vehicles, which are cars, you don't make much money on cars in the auto business. so you ship that production, or you contract with an outside
firm to sell those cars. it's not as though chrysler won't sell cars. they'll sell them. but somebody else will probably be manufacturing them. >> phil, stick around. joining us now to talk more about this, adam jonas, head of global research at morgan stanley, and michelle krebs at autotrader.com. is this quarter a ford problem or is this quarter ford just being the water shed of a bigger problem? >> we think it's both. we think it's representative of the industry issues. we think we're in the extra innings. at a point where you have to make it worth someone's while. ford might be exposed to some of the pressures on the sedan market, the car market. under the malawi regime, they made an enormous engineering and product effort to reposition their vehicles towards products that were perhaps more successful, some of them more successful, and $100 barrel an
oil environment. >> michelle, do you think we're at or nearing, as adam seems to, the peak of this cycle? >> we've actually thought that the peak should have been earlier. we have been warning about this for quite some time. if you look at our forecast for july, we're expecting sales to be 2% less. we've always said that this year will be maybe eke out another record, but possibly not. and as the year has progressed, we have thought probably not that it will. >> phil, when i hear our two guests talking, it's something you talk about a lot, the fact that companies -- when they start having to put incentives on cars, it costs them money, it hurts their profitability. is that what we're going to see more of? >> well, it looks like we're heading in that direction. we're not at the level where we
were back in the early 2000s or before the recession when you really saw ridiculous deals being offered because there was so much production out there because the automakers had to keep the plants open. they've stripped on a lot of production. so they're much leaner. they don't have the plants with the excess capacity that they once had. having said that, tyler, historically, this is an industry that has not done well in terms of showing discipline when it comes to not going crazy with incentives if the market starts to slow down. it could be different this time. we could see an industry that does show discipline. but historically, that has not been the case. >> maybe they're going crazy in the other direction. i spoke with my uncle. he's a big independent used car dealer in virginia. i always ask him, how's business? he said, i wish i could get more trucks. pickup trucks, used ones with low mileage, they're hard to find, super expensive, so they're not much of a used discount. seems like with this fiat chrysler news, here we go again.
the big three all making the big cars because gas is still cheap. what happens if gas prices go up? is the bottom going to drop out again? >> first of all, i don't think the bottom is going to drop out. we do a report every month called the scarcity report. there's huge demand for used trucks, both light duty and the super duty. >> he said he can't get them. >> and they can't get them. they're in big demand and short supply. >> is the auto industry going to get stupid again? gas is cheap, let's make some big trucks. and they may not. but if they do, suddenly americans don't want big 6,000 pound cars anymore. >> what i would say too is remember, the sport utilities and trucks are not what they were ten years ago. this isn't all driven by gas prices. there are other factors. we think affordability of vehicles is a huge factor.
the price of everything has gone up and wages have not. there's this huge shift toward sport utility companies, but they're really car-based. 60% of the market now is trucks in these utility vehicles versus cars. so there's a big shift in the market as well. >> adam, what's your favorite auto stock? >> our top pick amongst our north american names right now is fiat chrysler. >> because? >> we think that the management team understand the sense of urgency that the industry is facing. both in terms of where we are in the cycle. and transforming a business that's selling cars to one that's selling miles, sometime, and experiences. we think that sergio and his team perhaps i think even related to that move of concentrating on the jeep and ram brands where they are highly
profitable, are positioning the company to be more attractive to investors, more profitable segme segments. so we think he's increasing the flexibility he has to do what he does best, which is to potentially negotiate. i'll leave it there. >> it was a pleasure. phil lebeau, thank you as well. we'll see you soon. >> let's send it back, meantime, to michelle at the dnc in philadelphia. >> thank you, tyler. we are less than eight hours away from hillary clinton's big speech tonight at the dnc. if you caught any of last night's speeches, here's something that stuck out. >> we all need to be as vocal as bernie sanders' supporters have been during this election. that's right, feel the bern. >> we all should feel the bern and we all should not want to get berned by the other guy. >> now hillary clinton's challenge, unifying her party, winning over her critics,
winning over the bernie sanders supporters. with us now, reverend john stanley, a delegate from wisconsin who says he will not vote for her. good to have you here. you're an ardent bernie sanders supporter. for the last several days, the leadership of the democratic party, you heard it from the vice presidential nominee and from president obama. they are trying to court you. did they win you over to hillary clinton? >> no. >> why not? >> they didn't, because hillary clinton -- i am very against everything that hillary clinton has done. people don't ever talk about her c colluding. they talk about debbie wasserman colluding. >> that's the leader of the dnc here. >> yes, exactly. >> top i don't agree with the things she's done and the corruption. >> here's my question, though. bernie sanders didn't get on the
ticket. so november is coming. i post the same thing to the never trump people. most of them were for ted cruz. when you stand in that booth in november, what box are you going to check? >> i am going to check for hillary clinton. >> wow. that's a big statement. why? >> i am going to -- because i am voting for people who -- one of my own delegation came to me, a latina, and she is frightened. she is so scared of trump. and one of my biggest objections has been about voting in fear. but she is terrified of trump deporting friends and family. i am not supporting hillary. i'm never going to vote for hillary. i have no intentions of voting for hillary. but we do need to vote for something. we do need to vote for people. but i am voting for her, and i'm voting to support those.
>> are other bernie sanders supporters going to go with you? are 100% going to vote that way? 50%? 75%? >> no, of course not. >> make a guess, though. is it half? less than half? >> i would say that our delegation was almost all unified. >> to vote for hillary? >> yes. one of the most -- one of the hardest fighting delegations against us, i would say they were almost all unified. there were a couple people who were really upset. and i was one of them that walked out. but this goes against every single fiber of my being. but we need to go -- we knead to trust in the revolution. we need to use the revolution. i'm voting for those who say that they're going to hold hillary clinton accountable, that they are going to make sure that she does everything that she's promised here in the platform. that she does everything that she's promised america.
>> reverend john stanley, thanks so much for joining us. we really appreciate it. we wanted insight into the bernie sanders supporters. >> thank you. you don't know how hard this is on me. thank you. >> to say that you're going to have to vote for hillary clinton? >> that i would say that i'm casting a vote for her. i'm not for her. i'll never vote for her. >> i get it. >> i'm for the people. >> reverend, thank you so much. >> thank you. >> we've had big speakers all week. it culminates tonight with hillary clinton's acceptance speech. coming up on "power lunch", we'll find out who silicon valley wants to be the next president. and we have our powerhouse political round table featuring john harwood and ed o'keefe. plus, tune in tonight, cnbc's special coverage of the democratic national convention, 10:00 p.m. eastern time. you can watch hillary clinton live right here. "power lunch" is back in two minutes. this just got interesting. why pause to take a pill? or stop to find a bathroom?
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wall street gearing up for two big earnings reports after the bell. two companies with share prices in the 700s. amazon and alphabet. those shares right now higher. amazon by about 1.2%. alphabet basically calm. john fort all over amazon. first to josh lipton in france with a look at what investors need to focus on, alphabet's numbers. >> 2015 was a year to remember
for alphabet. so far this year, not so much, after surging nearly 50% last year. alphabet, parent company of google, is in the red year-to-date. heading into this print, concerns include those tougher comparisons in the second half. the impact of brexit, given that the uk represents an estimated 10% of sales, and ongoing pressure from regulators on both sides of the atlantic. now, today, the street thinks alphabet will report eps of 804 on revenue of 20.76 billion. and that would represent jumps of 15% and 17% representatively. so, can google's ceo win back those bulls? focussed in this report is going to be on revenue and operating margin trends for core google, as well as revenue and operating loss trends, which includes everything from google fiber to self-driving cars. investors might be spectacle, but the streets still very bullish on this name.
92% of analysts rate this one a buy. guys, back to you. >> thank you very much. john fort tracking amazon. >> amazon has been having a pretty good year. wall street's looking for $29.5 billion in revenue. $1.11 in eps. amazon's revenues expected to build quarter by quarter. this is an important set of results to watch because of guidance as well. analysts are going to be curious what effect prime day is going to have on q3. also expect to hear a lot about the cloud. the streets looking for cloud revenue of around $2.83 billion. if amazon somehow manages to beat that and achieve a $3 billion revenue quarter, that's, of course, going to be a big deal. for guidance, investors want to hear that q3 is going to come in around $31.6 billion, and as always, it's going to be an eye on amazon spending on content and on cloud to see how much profit might be left over. >> that is serious revenue growth, to 29 billion, from what it was a year ago. >> sure is.
>> john fort, thanks. >> and we'll have full analysis, by the way, on "fast money," 5:00 p.m. eastern, 2:00 p.m. pacific. i hope everybody joins us. let's go back out to michelle live at the dnc in philly. >> thank you, guys. from the after-the-bell earnings to the social media battleground in the race for the white house, we want to turn now to matt mahan, an online network for voters. shawn parker and mark benioff as backers. good to be here. >> thanks for having me. >> pretend i'm a dumb tv anchor. what is brigade? >> as you just said, we're building a network for voters, a little bit like linkedin is for professionals. we give them tools to declare their beliefs on the issues that matter to them. and connect with other voters so that collectively, they can take action in elections and through advocacy campaigns to push forward the agendas that they care about. >> how do you make money? are you selling access to that
information for hillary clinton, for example? how's that work? >> we're still a start-up. the product has been in the market for just about a year now. we're testing a lot of new features. once the network gets to scale, we think there will be an opportunity to go to candidates and advocacy organizations and play a match maker role. >> how many people do you have so far? >> we have millions of conversations and debates happening on brigade. if you take a look at the conversation on brigade.com -- >> but the conversation is one thing. members is another. >> that's true. we haven't released our data around the number of verified voters on the platform. we've been doing a lot of experimentation with connecting to the voter file. >> hollywood, we can assume, is generally a liberal place. it's a liberal industry. a democratic voter most likely, if you work in hollywood. not all of them, of course. silicon valley. is that also a democratic stronghold?
>> by and large, yes, though i think there's a strong pro-business contingent that doesn't always align with traditional policies and there's a strong libertarian undercurrent. >> i always think of silicon valley as libertarian, small government, stay out of my bedroom, stay out of my pocketbook, that kind of thing. how do you think they're going to break down? >> i'm not sure that's entirely true. i think silicon valley also has an appreciation for government's role in building infrastructure and investing in primary research. providing an excellent education system. i think it's a little more nuanced. i should say that brigade is a neutral platform, so we don't take a side on these issues. we try to be a platform to empower voters to participate in the process, however they see fit. >> so bottom line, when you think the election comes down in november, most people in silicon valley lean towards hillary clinton? >> that would be my guess this year. >> peter teal is a notable exception. >> that's true. peter teals, notable exception, yes. >> did it surprise you? >> you know, a little bit. because i think as a
libertarian, i'm not sure that the division of government that trump is laying out is totally congress r con grewous with that, but that's his personal choice. >> thanks. >> thanks for having me. >> matt mahan with brigade. >> michelle, thank you very much. now, let's get back to stocks. check out shares of u.s. steel. the ticker up a whopping 225%, just this year. a steel company. how much higher can it go, or will it go higher at all? the fundamentals versus the technicals ahead. plus, this is pretty crazy. a 13-year-old kid catching a 200-pound shark. the young man and the sea, tyler. we're back after this.
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and could save you in out-of-pocket medical costs. call now to request your free decision guide. and learn more about the kinds of plans that will be here for you now - and down the road. i have a lifetime of experience. so i know how important that is. welcome back. gains up over a percent. shares lifting the etf higher, pulling some weight there. after the mattress maker posted better than expected sales in the first time in three
quarters, helped along by better sales amid lower overall expenses. shares have traded around five to six times their average daily volume over the course of the past 30 days, guys. just when you thought it was safe to go in the water, a 13-year-old boy gets the catch of a lifetime. johnny mandiel caught this sand tiger shark. it was a long fight. a couple of pictures. this was a 200-pound fish released safely back into the ocean. rare to see tiger sharks so close to the shore. this is called catch and release. >> i hope that my 12-year-old is not watching the show right now, because it's a place called seaside heights. think snooki and everything. and she's always worried about sharks. i'm like, there's no sharks
hi, everybody. i'm sue herera. mike pence campaigning in the battleground state of michigan. he and his wife karen visiting party headquarters in grand rapids. he said donald trump's message about making america great again will appeal to voters in that state. >> he's a fighter. he's a builder. he's a very candid man. he speaks his mind to the american people and he has a vision to make america great again. >> obviously he's the vice presidential nominee. vacationers in cannes, france, have been banned from taking backpacks and non-transparent bags on to the beach amid fears of further attacks. the ban comes days after a priest was killed by isis
extremists in a normandy church. homeownership in the u.s. has fallen to its lowest level in more than 50 years. the census bureau says 62% of households owned a home in the second quarter of this year, the trend most pronounced among millenni millennials. chipotle has confirmed plans to open its first burger restaurant to be called tasty made. it will debut in lancaster, ohio, serving burgers, fries, and shakes. that's the cnbc news update at this hour. brian, i'm going to send it to you. that's kind of a crowded field. >> nothing surprises me anymore about anything. cynical. i'm 162 years old, sue herera, thank you very much. the oil market is closing for the day.
>> we flirted with that 41 level today. 41.04 was the intraday level. goldman was out with a note today indicating that the fundamentals are fragile, saying watch the dollar in this trade. also saying it expects to see prices to mid 2015. higher than where they are now. back to you. >> wall street keeping a very close eye on today's big meeting of the bank of japan. inflation continuing to stagnate over there. the idea of helicopter money has been floated by policymakers. >> a very aggressive and unconventional measure. helicopter money refers to money being dropped on the economy by policymakers, trying to jump start growth. japanese central bankers could look to it as an option to combat years of deflation and ultimately boost consumer demand. but how would they actually drop the money on the japanese economy? according to experts, first, the
government could offer loans to consumers and small businesses. the second option is to give japanese citizens a tax rebate. and the third option, perhaps the easiest, is print money and transfer directly into the bank accounts of consumers. the hope is that extra cash resulting in consumers spending more on goods and services, increasing prices and ultimately nominal gdp of japan. but there are many risks. deutsche bank warns that households could save money and not spend it. which is why analysts say the japanese would have to be a bis strategic in the deployment, putting the exploration -- >> an expiration date. >> really want to make sure that if they do want this concept, they won't just save it, they'll spend it. >> literally print money and send it directly into consumers' accounts? where do i sign up for that? >> this is the biggest monetary policy experiment at play.
japan needs some type of option here in order to kick start it. >> japan needs something besides more money. you know what they need? they need more babies. the demographic cliff is really scary in japan, in all seriousness. they actually had a holiday, i don't know if they still do, which is basically stay home and make a baby day. >> to encourage people. >> and the older folks are saving. >> so where in the world is the best place to put your money right now? your next guest is out with a map called the good, the average, and the ugly. the u.s. looms large in that list. the ones in yellow are average. and the ones in red, as you might expect, are ugly. let's run through some of the
highlights, beginning with the good. and it consists of the u.s., germany, and argentina. the average, among others, great britain, south korea, and taiwan. and the ugly, check this out, china, russia, nigeria, brazil, turkey. rashir sharma, author of "the rise and fall of nations." ruchir, welcome. good to have you with us. since we were just talking about japan, where does japan fit in your rubric here, or did you even look at it? >> of course i looked at japan. what i tried to do was basically look at the ten most important factors that drive economic growth and which countries look as good, average, and ugly. japan ranks somewhere between average and ugly, part of what you just referenced. demographics. i think that demographics is one of those very underappreciated factors behind economic growth. the entire growth differential with let's say the united states
and europe comes from the fact that its population is, in fact, contracting. >> you say the u.s. is among the good. is it good because it's really good, or good because the others are bad or average? there is not run region in the world where economic growth is higher today compared to the pre-crisis era. bc being before crisis, ac being after crisis. growth is everywhere. and the growth rate that the u.s. has been generating is higher than other developed countries. it is lower than what it used to be, but compared to other countries in the world, the united states looks relatively good. >> you put argentina, whose stock market is up about 42%
over the past six months, in the good category. and you put brazil, whose stock market is also up about 40%, in the bad. what's the distinction? >> argentina is seeing a meaningful turnaround take place under the new leadership. so there's a new cycle of reform. as my research shows. the first two years of a new leader coming to power, when you get the maximum bang for the buck in the stock market. in brazil, it's a bit more mixed. yes, we're seeing a positive sign. it's very unsure if they can return to any meaningful growth. so the hundred-year history of brazil is that brazil goes up for one decade and commodity prices go up and brazil relapses. i just find it very difficult for brazil to sustain any economic growth rate, given the environment for commodities.
the reforms in argentina are quite heartbreaking. >> ruchir, thank you very much. the book is "the rise and fall of nations." thank you. we have a mystery chart for everybody. it's kind of a cool thing that we did here. so this chart, that's amazing. >> that's a good chart. >> doesn't get much better. this is the best performing stock in the s&p 500 since president obama was inaugurated on january 20th. what stock has done the best. it's up more than 4,000%. it keeps hitting new highs. do you care to guess? the best stock since obama was inaugurated in the s&p 500. the answer is, after the break, of course.
>> president obama, former new york city mayor michael bloomberg attacking donald trump last night at the democratic national convention. tonight, hillary clinton takes the stage. what does she have to do to control the agenda? with me, "washington post" political reporter ed o'keefe and cnbc chief washington correspondent john harwood. gentlemen, good to have you here. seems to me there were two missions for this convention. you had to quell the bernie sanders voters. we had on one of the bernie sanders supporters and he grudgingly admits november, he thinks he and all his cohorts are going to vote for hillary clinton. check the box. if you believe them all. second, reduce her level of negatives. has that been achieved thus far? what does she have to do tonight to achieve this further if, indeed, that's been reduced in some way? >> well, i don't know if you can say that that's been achieved. look, it's very hard to change opinions about a public figure who has been well-known
nationally for 25 years. what you can do is try to give something to hold on to to have different opinions. bill clinton linked personal stories to her values, to her work in public life. she's going to try to knit together those threads again tonight. we'll see in polling afterwards how much the needle will move. >> even as she does find great, wonderful -- what is to prevent donald trump from hijacking the news cycle again, like he did yesterday? he's so good at that. >> he is. . that's been part of the concern for democrats. he could do or say something any day that could totally upend it. i think they're going to be very concerned. yesterday, it was kind of a gift that was handed to them in the fact that he suddenly just
suggested that rush should start -- >> it was a gift to the democrats? >> to the democrats, because it helped amplify the point that they were going to be making all night anyway, is they have concerns about his temperament, his judgment, his ability to be commander in chief. >> the folks were saying look at what he did, he managed to get them talking about hillary clinton's e-mails all over again, and all the nice things that have been said about her the night before by her husband, that didn't make it past 10:00 in the morning. the whole news cycle was hijacked by him. and yes, it led to criticism of him. but once again, the focus on her e-mails. >> which is why i've been struck, talking to some democrats here this week that have said she's got to do something, whether it's subtle, whether it's momentary. to sort of acknowledge all this. and say, you know, i get it. i know i'm imperfect. maybe explicitly say, i'm sorry. >> we've heard speakers in the last night try to skate towards that. look, she's made mistakes, just like i have.
is she going to get close to that suggestion? does she need to? >> i think she's going to acknowledge that in a long career in public life, there are reasons why you accumulate baggage and scar tissue and try to persuade americans why they should look to her as somebody who will fight for them. not easy to move those numbers. but the one point on your trump point with the russian e-mails yesterday. not all publicity in a presidential race is good publicity. and when he's outside of that republican primary and talking to independent voters, college educated, moderate, white voters, they're people for whom he's at risk of having them conclude, no, i just can't go there. that was the value of mike bloomberg yesterday. the more controversies, like this issue over the russian espionage, the more danger he has of some of those people falling off the table. >> thanks so much. ed o'keefe, john harwood. your money, your vote.
hillary clinton takes center stage tonight. tune in to cnbc's special coverage of the democratic national convention, 10:00 p.m. eastern time. brian? before the break, we showed you a mystery chart. it was the best performing stock of the s&p 500 since the president's inauguration back on january 20th, 2009. and unless we got hacked, you didn't know what it was. but now we're going to tell you. it is ulta salons. that's right. ulta the ticker is up again today and it is up a cool 4,203% in the past 7.5 years, guys, and it continues to hit new highs. i can't speak for you, tyler, but i am doing my best with the heavy purchase of beauty products, as you can tell. >> all right, thank you very much, brian. the treasury expanding its trackdown on criminals using u.s. real estate to launder money. robert frank with that story. >> governments around the world cracking down on offshoring and money laundering by the rich. now treasury is expanding a
program aimed at luxury real estate that was used for hiding cash. the treasury rolled out a pilot program in march with manhattan to miami that forced buyers who used llcs to buy property to disclose the real owner of the llc and their real source of income. now, they're going to expand that to add 12 other jurisdictions, including all the outer boroughs of new york, broward, and palm beach counties of florida, los angeles, san diego, silicon valley in california, and bexar county in texas, which includes san antonio. this only applies to properties priced at a million dollars or more in florida, two million or more in california, and 1.5 in the outer boroughs of manhattan and new york. but it's only for those who pay in cash. treasury is saying, this is amazing, 25% of the deals that they looked at in the pilot program were suspicious, including a $16 million cash withdrawal by one person and another person who moved $7 million around through south american shell companies. real estate agents put a brave
face on all this, saying it's not going to affect sales, and most of the clients are clean, but clearly this is not going to be good for the market and it adds pressure. >> thank you very much. robert frank. it is an under the radar name up more than 20% in the past year. analysts expect it to rise another 30% from here. that and two other big polls in "street talk" next. in just over an hour, "the closing bell." right now, the dow basically flat. nasdaq in the green. amazon and alphabet earnings on deck. has to maneuver quickly. that's also true of a good car company. people have always bought cars. but we saw an opportunity in sharing cars. so we moved fast and launched car2go in 29 cities, all around the world. doing that required dozens of data centers, designed for speed and performance. we built our business on the ibm cloud. because that's what the ibm cloud is built for.
we haven't forgotten about street talk. we'll make it quick and short. first stock, am gen on the back of last night's big numbers. the analyst takes the target to 209 from 193, 23% upside. they've beaten and raised six of the last seven quarters. positive data coming down the pike along with the expiration of a 10% royalty they have been paying to phaser. a share repurchase because likely the stock has been hot. duncan brands, another stock getting smacked with a
downgrade. clsa cutting to underperform from outperform. that's basically a sell. jeremy scott notes a solid performance this year but sees limited traffic going forward. he thinks the slowdown of unit growth is possible. as such, he can't justify more multiple expansion on duncan and downgrades it to an underperform. your final name, the smaller under the radar stock, cray, seattle based maker of super computers, beginning coverage with an overweight rating. analysts say it's well positioned to consolidate market share in the 3 to $4 billion high end high performance computing market. thinks a product called airies can deliver annual growth now next year. he's got a $41 target on cray. that's 31% upside. analysts bullish on cray. that's your under the radar name and that is street talk.
it's time for trading nation. steel has been hot. u.s. steel and a.k. steel each raising 20%. this week both stocks nearly tripled over the past year. is there still money to be made in steel or is it time to sell them? jonathan krin ski, when i see a name like u.s. steel up 200%, a, i'm happy for investors who got in at the right time but, b, i'm a little skeptical. >> i'm skeptical as you are. the management did a very good job of working out the operational details and taken a lot of the cost structure out of the equation but he still missed on revenues and there's very little evidence they're going to have any organic growth going forward. so i think the story here is much more of a short squeeze. the shock is 30% short outstanding and the big move you're seeing now is the last of the short squeeze on the stock so i think it's much more of a sell than a by right now.
i would be scale all the way up to 30 because i think it's going to come back and probably fill that gap that we saw yesterday. >> wow, hitting the x. jonathan, when you look at the charts, i know they're chock full of momentum but is that about to continue? >> i think it probably continues. they're in the material sector, that's the best performing sector from the february lows. it's a stock that's in a strong sector and it's showing relative strength within that sector, so we like that. if we look at the chart of u.s. steel, the first thing you'll notice is it didn't make a new low in february when the overall market did. that was the first indication that maybe the downtrend was ending. it's had a great rally. it broke above the neck line of $20. it's another 30% upside from here. the one little issue before that if we look at the long-term chart, we can see that u.s. steel is just getting back to that downtrend line from the 2007 highs and 2014 highs and
comes in around $29. near term, maybe 29 but we think it heads higher from there. >> this is why we do it technically and fundamentally. boris concerned fundamentally. the technicals seem to be strong and getting stronger. thank you very much. you can go to our website, ht : http://trading nation. we are back in two. >> announcer: and now the latest from trading nation and a word from our sponsor. yep.
♪ that is carole king doing a sound check, practicing for tonight, singing "you've got a friend" the song she composed in times square in new york city. people have heard she's here because even though this place doesn't gavel open for more than an hour, hundreds of people already showed up to listen to her sing. >> michelle, which convention has had the best entertainment? >> well, the rnc had a great cover band, i have to say. they did great country. they did great rock. really famous celebrities, it's
been the democrats mostly, right? katy perry later tonight. we saw her earlier. carole king tonight. all the broadway performers who sang yesterday. so yeah, playing true to form to the way we think about certain constituencies. >> alicia keys as well. of all that you saw last night and i didn't get to see mr. kaine or more bloomberg, which one had the greatest impact in the hall? obviously you can't really compare anything to the president, but biden was pretty good. >> it depends on what you were trying to achieve. if you're trying to get those bernie sanders supporters to come along, president obama ex horting them to do so. tim kaine doing so i think is super important. if you're really trying to say it's not safe to vote for donald trump, that's the message you're trying to get out, i think michael bloomberg was probably most effective. tonight 10:00 p.m. eastern time, it's really hillary clinton who's got to seal the deal with her speech. she's going to face off against
tremendous orders like president obama the night before. >> to quote carole king, the great carole king, my only criticism of these speeches, it's too late, baby. >> too late for you to see? >> i'm just an old man. i go to bed early. michelle, thank you. >> we'll be watching tonight. thanks for watching, everybody. "closing bell" starts now. hi, everybody. welcome to the "closing bell." i'm kelly evans at the new york stock exchange. >> and i'm bill griffeth. today is the biggest earning day for this quarter and one has been standing out for the wrong reasons. shares of ford down 9% on the back of weak guidance and auto sales that have been a bright spot in the u.s. economy to this point. could this be a sign of more pain to come we'll talk about that