tv Squawk Alley CNBC August 1, 2016 11:00am-12:01pm EDT
♪ >> welcome to squawk alley for a monday morning. kayla and myself at post 9. john fort out today. joining us this morning, the new york tiles columnist. a lot to get to with a lot of tech news today. our top story will be tesla buying solarcity in this deal worth 2.6 billion. the deal involves two companies founded by elon musk. shares of solarcity this morning. interesting headlines. some say muscle scoring position grabbing the throne of clean energy in this country and around the world. is it that simple? >> i guess you could look at it that way. >> the more simple explanation
is that he has a lot of interest in one of these companies, like he has a lot of -- at stake here and this is an unusual way to bring these two companies together and i'm not sure that it makes sense. i think he would like to have us look at it as becoming the leader of clean energy but it's still, there's still a lot of questions about this deal and i'm not sure that it makes sense for investors for the company at all. >> it's not a done deal. there's still a 45 day go shop period where any other suitors can make themselves known and musk is the largest shareholder in these two companies but it will be interesting to see how shareholders feel and how they vote about it and i'm wondering if you think that either of those hurdles will not be overcome by this deal. >> yeah, i think it's possible that the deal won't go through. it does seem though that they have kind of, you know, they have barrelled against kind of all opposition so far. so it does seem likely that the
deal will go through. what will be the deal is whether this makes sense for tesla as a company. there's the idea that tesla is better when customers can get solar installation and battery installation in a very seamless way and tied together with their cars. what is unclear is why they can't do that right now and why solarcity can't do that right now and what makes it better is these two companies are together. and hasn't defended this basic premise. >> we want to bring in the senior writer. good morning to you. >> good morning. >> musk, if you believe in hill is thinking, he is playing 3-d chess and we're playing 2-d chess. when he talks about the grid, what are the rest of his critics and skeptics missing? >> well, i don't know if musk knows something that we don't know? i agree, i don't see why you can't implemented his master
plan currently having them do as two separate companies. it's interesting that musk just came out with his big manefesto for what he sees for the future a couple of weeks ago. the last one was ten years ago so obviously timing was strategic here. but in my opinion, tesla has a lot of other issues and priorities that they should focus on right now. model 3. i think the auto pilot crash that happened we are just beginning to see what is going to be a much bigger issue and i don't think that they have taken it seriously enough. at least publicly. >> tesla is the bigger of the two companies by a pretty wide margin but some people on twitter are saying why not change the ticker to musk. fold everything into this portfolio. >> well, it is really hard not to be sin car length about this deal. musk owns 22% of solarcity and it's run by his cousin and it's
hard not to be sin car length about this. >> your thoughts on that. not necessarily the enterprise? >> you are at this point. there's lots of technical operational questions about tesla. like can they produce the number of cars that they need to but basically what you're betting on when betting about tesla and now solarcity is you're betting on elon musk. this guy to be fair beat expectations every single time. it's been amazing to see and i think essentially if you believe elon you're in this all the way and he's done crazy things in the past and survived. >> he is still kicking. there's no doubt about that. >> he is a visionary. i'll give him that.
and there's really nobody else doing what he is doing. he can make fun of his master plans but it seems like he is actually been able to deliver more or less on a lot of what he says that he was going to do and that was going to happen ten years ago. that said, i just don't know if this is the right move for tesla. i mean, i don't think it's going to make or break the company but i also don't think it's necessary. >> let's move on. beijing based ride didi will acquire the business unit in this teal worth up to $35 billion. it ends the push to dominate the space in mainland china and shows how hard it is. and people are trying to read into this, that there's some new chapter in uber maturation. they're less willing to go toe to toe and go to war in some parts of the country. do you believe that? >> no, i think this is just
travis sort of looking at the reality here. like this was a audacious probably impossible mission from the start. they did -- they spent a lot of money there. and the rest of their operations are profitable so they were spending their profits on this market that was always kind of a pie in the sky market and they got -- they didn't get nothing for it, you know? they still have -- they will have a stake in this new operation which will be an essential monopoly in china so, you know, they could make a lot here and this is an almost impossible plan. >> there's no love lost between the two companies that compete with each other in china. we spoke to code a couple of months ago and here's what she had to say about the competition.
take a listen. >> they're saying we're buying market share. we own 87% of private car service and almost 100% market share in taxi. so do you need to buy more market share or not, right? have you seen other places mark a leader by market share. it's the smaller player and need to buy market share. >> >> trying to buy market share, is that what uber was doing? >> you know, maybe. i mean, i actually -- i'm a little disappointed in this case with them pulling out here. obviously there's a track record in every tech competitor that's gone into china has been completely outdone by the local competitor and you see it time
and time again, right? that said if anyone had a fighting chance it was probably uber, whatever way they were going about it. uber is a very controversial company and travis gets a lot of heat but they have super, super aggressive and obviously he had reasons for giving up but it is giving up on the market. >> we'll see how it evolves from here. kanye west weighing in on reports that apple is in talks to buy tidal. west says the fight between apple and tidal is using some choice language messing up the music game and apple should just give jay his check for tidal now referring to fellow tidal founder jay-z. >> we have seen apple be
confronted by large entertainment personalities, will that happen this time? >> i don't think apple is going to make the deal because kanye tweeted something. this is different from the taylor swift situation but kanye is right actually. he's always right. he's right about this. it is bad for consumers and it seems bad for the music industry to have so many streaming services with their own exclusives and different deals. it seems like consolidation is maybe good for everyone and tidal is particularly suited to apple because apple prides itself on being the premium exclusive end to the market and that's what tidal has been able to attract. exclusive acts, early releases. that seems well suited. >> steve jobs tackled this differently. what would steve jobs have done?
how would apple music have he evolved before steve jobs? >> i don't know if it would have. if anything he would have had it more closed and more exclusive. we now know what twitter's purpose is. it's for kanye west to ask silicon valley to do what he wants them to do. so that came out of this. if you remember he asked zuckerberg for a billion dollars not long ago. >> but he asked on twitter, not on facebook. >> he made that mistake. >> he is set up perfectly to run for office in 2020, that's for sure. >> oh, yeah. >> thank you for joining us today. >> thank you. >> meanwhile we are watching a slight reversal in the markets on the first trading day of august. the dow is up 23 points. the s&p and the nasdaq are positive as well. we did see july manufacturing activity up for the 5th month in a row although a touch lighter
than wall street was expecting. construction spending also fell to a one year low in june. we're watching a few stocks this morning. alphabet and galxosmithkline focussing on bioelectronics. they were moving in opposite directions but both are now higher with the overall market. shares of etsy moving higher as well. the online crafts marketplace today with a buy rating and that is enough to lift the stock by a cool 17%. >> when we come back, tech stocks trading at the highest levels in 16 years but our next guest says the best is yet to come. plus forget e-commerce, amazon soaring on the success of its cloud business. more rivals now want a piece of that action and then tim cook says he's with her. why the ceo of apple is hosting an event for hillary clinton. when squawk alley comes back. the heirloom tomato.
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still down 2 act awfully close to a 3 handle. >> good morning to you carl, that's right. oil prices are trying to test that $40 level yet again. now interesting because barclays was out with a note this morning. it said the drain is clogged and that's the problem here when it comes to oil prices you have a glut in crude oil and gasoline and some demand was robust this year but not enough to work through the inventories in a
meaningful way. that demand is going to drop off in the next month or so and we head into the winter and global demand as well. europe and china specifically. that creates a picture that could be troublesome. in terms of the macro supply story as well the focus has some off of the saudis but they'll continue to pump to keep that share up against the iranians so we're back to a supply demand problem. what i'll say is there's one caveat. people care about the fundamentals until they don't and that's the dollar. fluctuates could cause small blips here and there but the three handle is in focus here and once we hit it that's when the momentum adds on and the crude oil trade. back to you. >> people are watching the effect of that on the credit markets as well which we'll keep an eye on for now. the s&p hit a new record high and among one of the best performing sectors is the tech sector seeing a surge in july reaching the highest level in 16 yearsful let's take a look at
how last week's earnings have contributed in the surge for the sector. channing smith is a managing director for capital advisors and channing, what is so interesting about the move in tech is how broad based it is. every single subgroup has been up for the last five weeks. what exactly are investors chasing and when does that tied come out? >> they're chasing a secular theme. mobile internet, e-commerce, that's where the earnings growth is so you can have a weakening global economy but these trends are still in place and are still driving impressive earnings and revenue growth throughout the world. >> well, the growth that you mentioned we have seen at companies like facebook, amazon and google but that's where they're chasing the revenue growth. there's a front page story today, dividend's boost, tech stock allure and it talks about cisco and ibm are back in vogue because they're almost functions
like bonds. how long will that last? >>. >> there's reversion partly because they became so inexpensive. early this year it was trading at 4.5 times free cash flow. if it starts hitting numbers and the rate of decline gets slightly more positive they can move quickly it would be the one we still prefer and this morning talk about how in a break up scenario it might be worth $40. >> do you have to buy the old names or buy the old line dividend payers? >> no, look at apple. this is a stock that struggled that is off of its high by 20%
but this stock is trading 11.6 times forward earnings. we saw it and we too expect our terms in the stock market are probably 3 to 6%. we think over the next two years that's a total return with dividend and if you want growth it's a little more aggressive as you get a downturn the stocks should be punished but they continue to grow and beat expectations. >> over the weekend, barons pointed out that if you actually value apple on a free cash flow basis it's at the very bottom of the barrel. it's less than 8 times it's own free cash flow. it's cheaper than hpq. at a certain point does a stock become so undervalued that gains are inevitable or are you still waiting to see how the iphone 7 plays out and how the eco system
fairs in theecond half of the year. >> our view on apple has been over long-term at current levels because it's highly inexpensive. specifically the way we would look at it is even if the iphone 7 is a level of innovation we think the business is going to recover anyhow. their number of users because over the last few years have grown by at least 80% and there is an annuity type characteristic and it's undervalued so iphone opportunities occur to 215 over the next few years and the second long-term story as well will drive good free cash flow is that services business will double in contribution as well because they do have these highly affluent digitally transacting consumers and taking all of this together the stock has been inexpensive and continues to be.
part of the positive reaction to last week's results wasn't because of significant growth in the business and that can drive it up. >> we'll see what september brings. we appreciate your time this morning. >> thank you. >> still to come, jeff besos may be the king of the cloud for now but rivals like google are threatening that kingdom. then we're counting down to the european close. squawk alley will be back in a minute.
generating a record amount of q-2 and also boasting all time at 30% and analysts are now going to produce 12 billion in revenue this year and just to put that in perspective, all the revenue is going to generate but the competition is not there and google reported it's other revenue segment that includes it's cloud services jumps up to 30% and posted real advantages of its own. >> the structure is already in place running google search. running youtube. >> and a way of making it available.
and they could catch jeff besos with a couple of years but that would be a very tough challenge. google does run a network of sophisticated data centers and it's $80 billion but the company controls 5% of this market according to synergy research group. the tech giant that controls the second highest share of this market isn't google. it's microsoft which boasts big sales force and long standing client relationships. it's on track to hit that goal of 20 billion in annual revenue from its cloud computing businesses by the end of fiscal 2018 which would include azure as well as office 365. back to you. >> thank you so must have. let's get one more check on the s&p hitting a new intraday record. up just about 4 points but we'll keep an eye on that. we're also keeping an eye on the minutes to come before the close in the u. k. and across europe.
stocks beginning the week to the down side but the banking sector is in focus. among today's losers in the t wake of the european banking stress test that hit late friday evening despite giving most of the 51 banks that participated a clean bill of health. italian banks as has been the banks all year, they're among the hardest hit today. that bank performed worst on the test but moving higher after a privately funded plan to raise capital. the idea being that now that the bad loans have had a price put on them, other banks will have to share similar values with their investors. a programming note for you, be sure to watch julia's exclusive interview with the italian prime minister matteo renzi tomorrow. >> when we come back, silicon valley meets capitol hill. why tim cook is backing hillary clinton for president and even hosting a fund-raising event for
member that died fighting for the u.s. demand apologies from donald trump. they were on the "today" show this morning. >> this candidate amazes me. his ignorance. he can get up and the entire nation, the communities, the minorities, the judges. >> afghan authorities say an overnight attack on a house for foreign contractors killed one and wounded four others. a huge crater as you can see there at the scene of the explosion and a highly damaged compound wall inspected earlier this morning. syria reporting heavy fighting at a palestinian refugee camp on a key road into aleppo. government forces repelled an attack by opposition fighters and luke akins jumped into the history books yesterdayment i couldn't watch it. he is now the only person to
survive a sky dive without a parachute. he bolted from the plane 25,000 feet and flipped on to his back at the last second and landed in a 100 by 100 foot net. i couldn't let my kids watch it. that's the cnbc news update this hour. let's get back downtown. do not try this at home. >> why do you even do that. >> he's done 18,000 jumps since he was 12. >> incredible. sue, thank you. >> despite high profile jutrump supporters, one of the valleys most influential ceos is throwing his weight behind hillary clinton. it's foundation capital general partner paul holland. paul, when brian was going to throw a trump event, the shade was enough to cause him to scrap it all together. is there a different standard
being held for clinton and for apple? or is it now just open season? >> well, i think one, it is open season. i mean, we're 97 days away from the election or whatever so we're going to be into that last sprint but i do think that it's notable. i had a conversation with another senior executive here in the silicon valley over the weekend and we were postulating that donald trump will probably have the lowest fund-raising totals of any republican candidate in recent memory. it's difficult to go out to your community here and raise money for trump. he's a very devicive candidate and someone that doesn't really represent the values of most of the people here in the silicon valley. >> there was a lot of support for bernie sanders before he dropped out of the race and a lot of money from rank and file tech and rank and file citizens in the bay area that went toward
sanders. are you certain that's going to go toward clinton or some of that is going to go toward trump. >> whoever is coming off of this concept that sanders voters are going to vote for trump, they're smoking something. there's no realistic chance that any significant portion are going to vote for trump. so i don't think that's going to be part of the problem. hilary has her own issue as a candidate but it's one of these things where the values just don't line-up from that perspective and when you layer in the dem graphics that we have out here in california with 60% of the voters are women, we have a very significant minority population here and a very different first generation immigrant here and they're about
0.0% and i would also note that i would believe trump and the trump team will abandon early in the race. >> what gives you that insight. you voiced your support for clinton in the past. you written that you know tim kaine and like him personally but what sentiment is going to tell you they're going to abandon it all together? >> yeah, i think it's actually just more of a function of being pragmatic. if you look at how they're going to have to run their race, number one, they're very thinly capitalized. donald trump has chosen to take an unorthodoxed approach. he's hoping his twitter following and social network engagement will replace what has been traditionally how you use campaign fund sog ing. so he is well behind and that will get worse out here as i noted. hilary and tim kaine are going to do well in the coming weeks and months here in california but you do simply have to look
at it, this isn't a controversial statement. this is just looking at the demographics here. he is going to do better in the red states and these are the blue states and in particular with the type of campaign he has run and now with hilary having picked tim kaine that's a very solid candidate that reflects more of the values out here on the west coast donald trump is going to have a difficult time. they'll have to do triage and pick their battles where they can win and where they can't and i don't think they have a real chance of winning on the west coast. >> as a guy that involves assessing data, you must at some level agree that there's a hidden vote in this country for him that's not being reflected in surveys or polls.
why there are people and certainly here in california and people elsewhere that are going to distort trump. there's resentment about the sbugs of government into all aspects of their lives. and probably approaching 60% of your income in some form of tax. federal state or local property or whatever it might happen to be. there's $100 in the paycheck. $60 of that $100 goes into that body and there's a tremendous amount of resentment associated across the board. when republicans put donald trump in front of the electorate they're going to fail. if they put a sarah palin in
front of the electorate they're going to fail. they're giving the democrats a free pass in many of these blue states because they're just not going to be competitive. if, in the next election cycle they can find a candidate that will appeal more broadly to these demographic groups that are growing as opposed to the demographic group they work well with and that group is shrinking. >> we appreciate your time this morning. >> what it means for other u.s. companies trying to do business in the world's second biggest economy. we'll speak with an early investor coming up next.
a big call today in the retail space. it's time to go shopping and two new calls on harley davidson. one big upgrade and one big downgrade. who is reving up and who is dead wrong. today at noon on the halftime report. we'll see you in about 20. >> beijing based ride hailing service confirming it will acquire the uber chinese business unit in that deal worth up to $35 billion.
susan is in san francisco with the latest on that. >> i wish i was in san francisco. i'm back here at new york headquaters. let's talk about this big deal. it's the talk of the town in china. i want to tell you a story back in 2014 according to sources in china, he walked into didi's office back then and offered to invest in the company and saying uber is going to dominate this market yesterday so why not come in and join us. fast forward, a whole different story. didi dominates the chinese market. virtually 100% in the taxi market and operates in four times the cities that uber does and just a few months ago the president of did says they're closer than ever so you do the math. and it's value for uber china and subsidies and trying to gain
market share. so hey, you know what, for uber it's a collaborative and he is the founder of didi and also gets uber and going forward this is a lot of potential. and people in silicon valley and and really a warning and it's not grog to work. ebay was battling a small company in the early 2000s called alibaba and they thought ebay would win. not the case. and for someone thinking like mark zuckerberg at facebook thinking i want to get into the chinese market. makes a lot of trips to china. there's we chat that is the equivalent of book.
>> thank you so much. let's bring in an early investor in didi. it's good to have you back. >> thank you. it's good to be here. >> i know you can't talk specifics of the deal but what is most important to take away from it? is it about a change in uber's overall strategy or is it about the ease with which you do business in china right now? what are the lessons? >> i think this deal, this type of structure is something we have been discussing and promoting through the shareholders over the last year or so. we think that uber has much bigger fights to do in the u.s. there's logistics and other businesses. if there are bigger marks for uber to fight why does it spend so much money to fight it and the incumbent leader in china. it doesn't make such sense. if amazon or apple or any other big players in the u. s. or google come into this market how does it change the dynamics?
it's a shrewd move to do this. >> there's one group benefitting from this competition and that was the writer for both of the services. they go got to go for 40 minutes. it was so cheap. they were operating nonprofits over there. how expensive do these rides become for riders in china and what hampering does that put on the company's growth. >> that has minimal impact because it's by far a market leader. doesn't provide as much subsidy. and didi is more expensive but also has better service and extensive network, more drivers and so forth. so i think the writers in china are smart and this deal will have minimal impact on them. >> do you think we're going to see other deals in other spaces that sort of mirror this backdrop of competition in china? >> well as you all know, gdp was involved with the initial deal of yahoo! investing in alibaba and grows to a $200 billion
company it is today and benefitted handsomely from the process. that structure makes a lot of sense from u. s. start ups looking at china. the thing that it moves so quickly, work 9:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m. 6 days a week and they work so quickly and innovate very quickly that it's very tiff cut to come to this market late and expect to do well. so an alliance of the two parties make much more sense. >> hard for a start up to come into the market late and do well but if you are facebook or if you are netflix and you have wanted to operate in china for a long time, what lessons can you take away from uber? >> i think facebook and netflix, especially facebook has been very thoughtful of how they go into the market. we think that media is a much more sensitive category to he open up than e-commerce or transaction services but in a category that's not for the c y
chinese government, then partnering and investing in a local leader makes much more sense and there's room for both. more want to go out as well so when you see didi investing uber it makes the alliance that much stronger for both sides. >> do you think that uber can afford to be more aggressive in north america, europe, somewhere else? >> i'm sure they can. a billion dollars a year can do a lot elsewhere and that's very smart move and global marks and new markets and not just on china. >> thanks for coming in. >> you may have landed legal trouble according to the olympic committee. what are you watching today? >> i'm watching within a dozen
>> good morning, rick. >> good morning and thank you kayla. i really do think that new normal means that we get used to things and on the input side that that have changed and eventually the output side is something we can live with, at least that's the way many read it. i think it's much more abnormal and it's much more abnormal for a much longer period of time. so i think it's more aptly named the immortal abnormal. consider a couple of things as you look at a chart from early july of 2012, knowing that in july of 2012, just like in july of 2016 we set what was historic lows. at least going back, let's say, to the eisenhower administration. so i did a number of calculations trying to find some common ground from the 2012 venture to this one, and i really didn't find anything. as a matter of fact, they're very similar in so many ways. for example --
it's been, tomorrow will be exactly three weeks since we set that new low, right around 136, and if you look at the market at 148, we're about a dozen basis points away. if you go back to july of 2012 after three weeks, it was about 17 basis points away. there's a lot of aspects. why is that important, you're asking? because normally, when bottoms are the type of bottoms in any market, could be soybeans, canola oil, bonds, you know, everything's commodity-like anyway right now. usually you get a big bounce and those bounces mean that that bottom is sank kra sink. it's not necessarily true. eventually we did trade much higher in yield after the 2012 bottom, but the fed didn't pay attention, didn't normalize rates, so that missed opportunity. let's look at specifics. global central banking, they're not going to stop. i mean, it's evident by the relationship between corona and abe with regard to gentlemanmja.
mario draghi and the stress tests. it fits. another area i talked to, charles beaterman today, that has really captured my imagination to underscore the dynamic we're talking about. three ms. money markets and margins. many are fearful. some of the biggest bond institutional bond gods are nervous we could get a big reversa reversal. it seems so logical but i'm not buying if for the following reasons. now, as money market reform comes we're not seeing lots of money leave money markets. charles aptly pointed out, seeing a lot more money going into treasuries. second issue, treasuries are now the currency of margins due to special capital treatment, fancy jargon for considering the demographic time bombs around the world and the notion of servicing debt that's out of control, they're going to find that they, meaning you a the agencies of governments, are going to find reasons to make
treasuries something you hoard and not necessarily sell. that happening in margins. all of those things are very much abnormal. will they change anytime soon? they may. for now, quite immortal. back to you. >> thanks so much. rick santelli in chicago. the olympic starts this week, but the u.s. olympic committee has been biz are for weeks now attacking a somewhat unique problem this time around. trying to stop other companies from using olympic hash tags saying that only official sponsors are allowed to use them. our eric chemmy has the later on that. eric? >> right, kayla. the u.s. olympic companies that are not official sponsors can not use hash tags like rio 2016 and team usa. some in legal experts think this is totally bogus saying hash tags are for everybody to use. meantime, the usoc is going
after commercial amenities to draw attention to their own. they can use them. media outlets can use them, too, and normal individuals expressing themselves on twitter, of course. the usoc's problem, any company that didn't pay to be a sponsor and then trying to use a hash tag to judge on the conversation bandwagon. sent letters to many companies asking them to stop. the wwe had their own team usa wrestling team on the july 4th broadcast with accompanies tweets. jamba joyce, girl scouts and bank of west, some of the companies that have used hsh d tag team usa in the past month, suggesting most of these offending companies use the hash tags just once, which could mean the usoc complained and never did it again. big sponsors mshg donald's, goek, ge and visa and considering eke of these sponsors pays over $100 million a year, the usoc is doing
whatever it can to keep them happy. back to you. >> i'd like to see the enforcement on that one, eric's see how that goes. >> exactly. >> a news alert from the fbi. aym aymeamon javers has the story. >> potential new case. unsealing a criminal complain avuszing an fbi employ of acting as an agent of china. the u.s. says the defendant has worked as an electronic technician at the fbi's new york office since 1997. also known at joey chun granted top secret security clearance in 1998 and the u.s. government says since at least 2006 he's dealt with chinese nationals allegedly affiliated with a technology company that appears to be in china. guys, developing story here, but one we'll have to monitor. see where all of this goes. back to you. >> we'll come back to you for details. thank you for that. more "squawk alley," after the break. s & p hit a recor.
away at session highs. >> trying to catch up to the rest of the averages. earnings period continues. look at where amc entertainment shares are trading. down, revenue and profit fell, attendance at the box office down 7.1%. what is hitting a record, food and bev rap tickeerage tickets customer. >> interesting. millennials going to the movies over ten years not encouraging and more toys and gimmicks trying to get people to leave their living room. >> more on your computer and tv than just about anything. >> check out etsy. not a large cap name. up almost 14% as citi initiates with a buy, target of 14, and credit to kramer, positive on thon -- cramer. up almost 8. >> and a new york based economy in brooklyn, people too bearish. earnings could be better than
expected. we'll see, of course, what happens there. >> and, of course, earnings parade this week. tomorrow proctor, pfizer, electronic arts, avon, a bunch of names, going to take us well into the weekend, and retailers next week. >> so much for a quiet august. >> no such thing. over to headquarters. the judge and the "half." all right, guys. thanks so much. welcome in to the "halftime report." i'm scott wapner. top trade this hour. dividends in danger, utilities, telecom to tech. stocks with popular and pricey payouts led markets to new highs think year and yields sit near historic lows. new questions about the strength of the economy, could this be a risk to your money? with us, joe terranovterranova,h brown and steve, and the yield