tv Fast Money CNBC August 1, 2016 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT
so, i think that whatever number comes out this month, it could still be derailed the next month. >> the bar is high. >> very. >> 50 40 0, 500. >> guy, thank you so much. that does it for us on closing bell. see you in atlanta tomorrow. "fast money" begins now. live from the nasdaq overlooking new york city's times square, i'm melissa lee. your traders on the desk -- tonight on fast, worry about an august swoon? don't be. weave we've got the three stocks that tend to rally during summer. plus, the man who called the declining -- another group of storks will suffer a similar fate. later, while the s&p continues to make new highs, some unlikely countries are crushing the u.s. markets. but first, if you haven't noticed, i've been away from the show. >> worried sick. >> it's actually been two weeks. two weeks.
riding a bicycle. if you told me two weeks ago that apple was going to rally 7%, crude woul see losses of 13% and biotech stocks would rally 13%, i'd say you're crazy. what is going on here, tim? >> let's talk about apple quickly. i don't think anything changed with their business, a although we got an earnings print, if you lins to the community, one of the things they're saying is they can they think trade at a higher multiple. anywhere from 13 to 14 depending on what the e prk s outlook is. because the growth is better. we're getting into a period where you have this refresh cycle and inn some of the risks around the business are out of the way. i think that's what the market has gone through. and i think the decorlation of oil to the s&p is something we're quoing to talk about here, be we have a place where really nothing haze changed. we're still many this melt up
mode and then the absence of the fed and any major macro event, that's what's happened to this market. >> nothing is changing yet. seems like this may be interpreted as positive of healthier action. we have money going into the areas of the market that have not had favor this year. >> would you rather be buying a stock, 20% earnings growth or been inflated. look at the bye tech space. the overhang is obviously an election year, i get it. but you look at the bye tech, the larger names, gilead. big cap stocks numbers and i think we're come tog a point now where people have the confidence and the growth. >> i don't know how much tim let on, how much the consensus was so negative on apple. got that out of the way. the rotation of stacks out of dividend, but when you look at the rotation, xlu is off 2% from its highs. xlp are off 2% from their highs. gdx, monitor, still up 122% year to date. to me, i don't know if that
really is it worthwhile event to rotate off dividend. i think the market is confused. >> definitely has energy for sale. but i think it's confused on dividends. doesn't know what to do. >> what should you do? what are you doing? >> it's a rotation of the market and just been time and time again. we've seen different sectors, but look back to february, where the xle was then. where oil was under 30. suddenly, you get this huge run up to 50, now, you've pulled back. rotating out, the chevrons, all the rest of those, then everybody's looking. you talk about dividends, but where do they tart to shift. even tarting at brexit. you start to see the shift, you look for value, but growth and dividend. starting to look at semiconductors. they're hitting 52-week highs. look at tech. ibm trading about 161. a lot of these were left for dead, but because of what we learned, in certain areas of the
financials, better than the worst thing that expected. then apple, the bigs of the big, then look at amazon, google, facebook and we've gone time and time again with these financials. zpl. >> financials are going to be dead for the foreseeable future. >> are you guys both saying the same thing, which is that it's swrus about rotation and that nothing is really changing? >> the deck chairs have moved around the table and we're still at all time highs. i think the money is till on the sidelines. guys are waiting to chase this market, which means to me, there's still risk to the upside. having said that, there's a greater risk. >> numbers, that's what's strange. >> we know what they can do. google, what can they do. >> we knew -- zpl could they
deliver? >> the energy suffers in general, the etfs that were -- exxon mobil and chevron. they represent a massive percentage of dividend names. >> what i need to know know at this point is that 40% of the s&p 500 has reported there abouts, so what do you do? chase this rotation, this shifting of deck chairs at this point in do you still go into technology, into biotech? >> the most value is going to be in techland. remember, if there's as much cash on sidelines as people said. >> and within technology. >> i think within technology, the semis aren't really what does it for me. it's probably you're chasing growth. first of all, google gis you the best combination of both. it would be google, apple. and it might be cisco. gl so, within the rotation, what are you buying?
what do you sell? >> on biotech, i think there's going to be head winds, no question. technology, i'd sell near term. i think you sell the metals, technology and i'm buy e of biotech. where we stand now. gl it's up 25%. >> six month high. >> from a relative value perspective, i like biotech. >> i like these technology names and i've been in them and i'll continue to be in them. i see no reason to be out of cisco, no reason to get out of these chip names. not necessarily the big names, but i like intel. i think it has a chance. there was weakness in certain areas, we kind of new some of that, but we were a little surprised because anything related to the cloud for intel. wasn't as good as expected, so that was a disappointment, but the tok was coming off a 52-week high. you're $36 a share. not far from that now for all the right reasons. they still have growth. >> look at cisco's yield. >> i think you have to lighten up on the travel and leisure
stocks. i think zika is going to be a bigger story. we saw the ebola blip. >> exxon back down near 84 bucks. got a major pullback in a name that okay, exxon should not be ' 'reacting to top line oil prices. there's some people that think maybe they'll p able to massage earnings and there may be something out there. but again, you've got a major pullback in big cap oil. major dividends. >> would you buy with that? sounds like you're saying buy it. >> exxon. >> $2.2 billion negative and free cash flow to support their dividend. all these companies talked about using free cash flow the to support their dividends. >> i don't know what it's like to talk about this. >> not all stock is good as gold. >> agree. a lot of these stocks are
trading like they're fearing a global recession. obviously, that's all been out there. this is not breaking ground. markets made new highs, but i think this space is trading a little odd to me. >> speaking of oil here, the dip below 40 might have been surprising, but now to our next guest who said two weeks ago on "fast money." take a listen. >> but this point, '08, '09, we continued higher. i think we're going lower and crude back to 40. >> so where's crude going now and what stocks could soon follow in carter is back at the smart board. do tell us which one. >> i think crude probably lower still, but today's, something that looks similar to crude before crude came apart, so wanted to take a look at the metals and mining come plek. there's an etf that captures this group well. xme. i've got here for you a one-year chart and the lines really speak for themselves. you have a tight relationship between metals and mining and we've had this 20% pullback in crude even as the stocks have
continued. take a look at the one-year picture, the two-year picture. the divergence at this point to my eye signals that the plu line is on borrowed time. this is two years against crude. here's two years against the s&p 4040 energy sector. the entire sector and the median stock in the medals an mining is about 2.7. exactly the same as the s&p foreign energy. so again, playing for some convergence of these two lines. the blue line is going to go the way of the orange to some extent. so, a couple of other charts, this is the actual etf in relation to its price. it's farther above trend than the last six years. just to put this in context, it goes back to the higher bull market high in '07. this ricochet now steeper than the one coming off of the '09 final crisis low. that's incredible. and at this point, this is about where you get pullbacks.
we haven't had that yet. another thing to look at is in terms of retracement. this low is 12. this 78. a $66 move. 25% takes you to where we closed today at 28.50. a quarter of the move and you can draw your lines like that. you could draw them like that, but either way, your difficult level, it's a crowded space, looks a lot like certain energy stocks did before the whole thing came apart. >> what is the risk to the downside and what level do we need to hold in order to avoid that? >> you can get things in the order of 15, 20, 25%. similar the what we saw in crude. crude piqueded at 51 many change and prints as low as 49 in change today. >> within that etf, is there a differentiation between the types miners? >> some of the steel, gold as well. three quarters in here.
not in this -- they are in that. certain parts. >> all right, carter. thank you. who agrees? who says you should stick with medals? >> i think stick. when ever china starts talking about its fiscal -- >> i don't agree. >> i think this a lot of this basing for me. when ever china utters the words fiscal deficit or increasing that, steel rallied 180% off the february g-20 meeting. ran another 50%, so i think it's basing here. do i think you should jump in? >> below 50. last night, what happened. gold, steel, everything china up overnight and in the face of that. you look at that and say, why, it's because of stimulus. >> so, you disagree with carter as well. >> i think steel's going to roll over.
>> pmi was sideways. it was down from 50 to 49.9. >> absolutely years. >> but steel was up from february 184%. as soon as they increased their deficit. anyone would be dead on to pull up a chart in u.s. steel and say this is overextended. but u.s. steel, this is what i want to say is different medals and miners, the balance sheets are significantly better. they've been able to lengthen maturities. they have a total free ride to 2021. that's where people have been wrong about the commodities based on these minors. >> steel's great, but i'm sure a lot of people want to know about gold miners in the winning trade. is now the time to put that into the rotation category and start lightening up? >> i have been in for a very long period of time and slowly rotate, but mine is a little different. it's to continue to be in, but take money off, so i'm rolling up and i can't continue to look for more.
slv has been very nice. gdx pushing, so i still think there is room to your xwe. i think it runs, but i'm hedging myself by taking some off and rolling up look for more. >> i think there's a difference, by the way -- >> whoa. >> whoa. >> and guy is not here. what he would be saying is if carter is at the apex of his game right now, so we know that and everything he said is very important. i actually think that the medals miners correlation to oil is something that doesn't have the same argument. were they really subject to the same? i think there are names that are way overextended. >> when you see a comparative chart like that, the thought is that the correlations because the businesses are correlated or the supply and demand. what's correlated is nothing to do with that. it is the way people behave. people find things that are on their knees and they run for them because they can make money. i get a double, a triple. the behavior here is what's so
correlated and that's important. >> the behavior and positioning. so, very important to recognize the steel, i mean, obviously, hit a massive run at 250. mattel, mt is up 54%. this is a name that wasn't as highly shortive. if you're looking to buy the steel names op a pullback. gold name, i think they pull back as well and i'd be looking at something like that, but mt relative value is a buy. >> up next, the man, the myth, the legend. we're talking jamie dimon, telling cnbc today the banks are a buy for the long-term. maybe not surprising. our traders ain't buying that. we'll explain. plus, biotech stocks surging into six-month highs. analysts will tell us what the street is missing about this group and concerned about august swoon, we've got the three stocks history says will do well in august and one is a scratcher. when fs munz runs. new bikes aren't selling guys...
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you know, there's regulatory pressure, banks and banks document lifts over time. and our client rs happy. that's what i worry about. build the company today and the stock price will take care of itself tomorrow. >> that was jamie dimon talking to wilfred frost on "power lunch" today. saying the big banks are buy for the long-term. he bought in february, pretty much at the low for jpmorgan. >> i think the banks are interesting. they're plagued by the entire set up with regard to the election, which is obviously on him, but i believe the banks are a trading vehicle right now. i wouldn't step in and put my eggs in one basket. i like bank of america. i think that's a stock you want to trade. >> well i think here's the difference between yield. i think long growth will steadily been picking up. i think we continue to see massive long growth and that's the key here if we don't have a
rise in rates. we need to see a steady pick up of loan growth. i think that could occur. housing purchases. they're going out, first time home buyer, going out into the marketplace. thai going to shift out of the cities wrrk ever the jobs. >> we've seen homebuilder, i think tim's here. up 20% year to date. management shake up there. but if you look at those things, those have reaped the benefits, but the banks still haven't. >> it's a great time to own the homebuilders. not so sure. what about credit cards? i understand that you buy a house, you go to home depot, buy product. my long-term feez in the bank, yes, they're well capitalized, yes, in a much different financial situation. obviously, the political arenas, the biggest concern now for the banks, do you think rate rs going to rise at some point in the future? i do. >> so, are you saying, you're saying it's a trading vehicle?
if you're saying the strengths, the strength of a bank are credit and in home buying and mortgages, then why not just go out and buy the home depot? buy the credit card. processing companies. instead of banks. >> if we're going to pile on. is what's your view on oil? you think it's going lower, right? if it is -- all these credit issues. >> the difference is this. it's again about sentiment and ment mentality. people believe we've seen the bottom in oil. we don't know what it was before. people believe the bottom is where rnd in the 30s, low 30s. they're comfortable with that. very different -- >> i will say that again, i think this whole thing with the yield curve and its flatness is so overdone when people talk about banks. banks have made a ton of dough. we've been much, much lower that
that, but banks have had an enormous operational leverage to the main economy. >> i think jpmorgan is the place to be. pete. >> if we got anything out of the earnings cycle which started with jpmorgan, long growth. what's there. and so because of that, even though we're talking about this yield curve and everything else, jamie dimon said it's not great. he was buying. 54 bucks a share. now trading 63. >> for a sector that's under weight. extremely under weight in portfolios, but a long shot, right in a sector people are just like biotech, waiting for that chance to step in on valuation alone mainly because they're fearful of the known. the unknown is what's going to happen with the election and potentially, what's going to happen with rates. it's an unknown variable. >> otherwise relatively healthy. >> that's usually a mistake. >> there's a difference between biotech and banks. you can value a company's pipeline, where as for banks,
much more difficult the value what the trading environment will be with the loan growth environment, the m&a environment. pipeline for banks. >> it all comes down to sentiment and positioning and right now, the positioning is extremely light. people very underweight and i'm telling you once things turn and they're going to turn quickly. you're going to walk in, be like, what the heck, how did it miss that move? >> to me, it's all about the credit cycle and auto numbers tomorrow, very important. if we have a problem, it's probably on the auto side. >> all right, still ahead, tesla agreeing to buy solarcity, but is it a good idea for tesla hair holders? you're watching "fast money" on cnbc. here's what else is coming up on fast. >> this is your portfolio. this is the stock market in august. and this is your portfolio in august. >> any questions? >> yes, where should i put my
money? well, we happen to have the three stocks that surge when the america ki goes up. plus, here's what russian stocks are doing to the s&p and we're we'll tell you the other surprising markets kicking the you know what out of the usa when "fast money" returns. what powers the digital world. communication. that's why a cutting edge university counts on centurylink to keep their global campus connected. and why a pro football team chose us to deliver fiber-enabled broadband to more than 65,000 fans.
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like hot cakes...made of cheese. got a crazy idea you think you can turn into a success? we know you can and we've got a domain for you. go you. godaddy. the s&p 500 may be at an all time high or close to it, but some surprising countries have been crushing u.s. equities this year. seema mody has more. >> politics, signs of economic reform and yields are driving investors over stocks overseas, starting with latin america, where brazil and argentina are up 30% on hopes that change of leadership in both countries will warrant change over time. and a rebound in economic
growth. in russia, stocks there are up 22%. oil has come off its lows and inflation in russia has fall ton a rate of 6% down from 15% in 2015. the big stand in asia is indonesia, which has been captivating investor attention ever since pro business leader became president. he has been trying to battle corruption therefore alleviating investor fears. now, all of these factors fuelling the market e the tf, the eem, which is up about 12% versus the s&p 500, higher from 206. that continues to trouble investors, whether the rally can kopt even if the medicine does raise rates in september. specifically, for those countries that are sitting on a lot of dollar denominated dead, so that will be a big test. the fed does raise rates in
september, can the emerging market rally sustain. >> all right, thank you. in the news room with that. so, tim, we got to go to you. which one? >> places where central banks are going to be cutting. yeah in brazil has the highest rate, the rial has gone from 330 down to 230 and you've had a major, mange trade, you take a major trade that's taken place there. i think in russia's case, watch the ruble, watch 67 break and stay away. otherwise, i think russia will continue, they are cutting rates there. i love korea and again, if you look at the south korean wan, this has bun within of the best performing currencies. i think samsung continues to go higher. those are markets, but em on the 36.25, that's a key level. i think it's praeking higher. i think it's a ve verse head and shoulders. >> are there stocks in the -- some of the stock, tim and i have been nor a long time, but
i'm out of that. it's made an incredible run. huge run to the upside, across the board in just about every one of these. i've seen huge paper op the downside in the puts. i have to ride on to that because it seems to me like a pullback. >> to what? >> just pulling back. maybe 10%. but you know, basically, you get up there. >> given people underneath. >> certainly. >> that is the sentiment right now in em and the fund flows are favoring it for the first time. this has been a five-year bear market. zpl whey is it in is it mainly because developing markets have valuations that are getting so stressed, it's just forcing people? >> stabilizing eps. >> $2 billion i think is the number. in the last two weeks has gone into emerging markets. it's not sustainable. >> the brazilian one is literally a dash for trash. i know where tim is on that, but i look at it as mostly trash. >> last word. >> again, brazil, the indices
are mostly the banks. consumer plays are still alive and well in these place, but expecting too much too fast is what pete is saying. they've got a lot of politics ahead of them. i think the best days are le hind. there are three standout stocks that tend to beat the street in august. and later, big pha ma on deck. from pfizer toaler began, which of these names could see the biggest moves on earnings? we'll tell you when "fast money" returns. about what happens when you turn sixty-five. but, really, it's what you do before that counts. see, medicare doesn't cover everything. only about eighty percent of part b medical costs. the rest is on you. consider an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. like all standardized medicare supplement insurance plans, it could really save you in out-of-pocket medical costs. so, call now and request this free decision guide. discover how an aarp medicare supplement plan could go long™ for you. do you want to choose your doctors? avoid networks?
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welcome back. the dow lower today locking in its first six-day losing streak in nearly a year. oil fell almost 4%. the s&p ending the day lower, but the north america tack managed to stay positive. here's what's coming up. some of the biggest names on the street are sounding the alarm for stocks in august, but there's one may not have heard of. plus, another big week for
earnings. we'll tell you the health care stocks that could see planlg moves. shifting gears to tesla, the company has agreed to an all stock deal to buy solarcity for $2.6 billion, but will it hit the speed bump with with shareholders? phil? >> they're not expecting a speedback, at least wen you lust b to the confidence you heard from the investors this morning and oh, boy bithe way, almost every analyst said the same thing. not sure i agree with the financials on this deal. i like the long-term strategy or i get it. 25.37 per share. basically what it's going to work out to when the deal is all said and done. at least according to tesla. there's a 45-day go shopping option, so they can look for another bid. get somebody who can pay them more. they expect the deal to close in the fourth quarter. the largest shareholder for both tesla and solarcity is elon
musk. but he won't be voting in terms of with tesla's hashareholders. he's recused himself, so it's up to the disinterested shareholders, if they approve. that vote is going to be an interesting one and the question came up today about whether or not elon musk, given the ties between these two companies, he's the chairman of solarcity, given the ties between these companies, will or not it's a conflict of interest. here's what he said. >> reporting around this merger is that the reporting that oh, all sorts of con b flikts of interest, no they're if we don't merge. the point of the merger is to get rid of the conflict of interest. >> his strategy and he's been laying this out since late june, is is that you're creating basically a one stop shop when it comes to green, clean energy. the gigafactory is at the heart of that. we went on a tour of it last week. thaifr already starting to build and ship power wall, energy
storage units sold to residences around the united states. power packs, which go to the utilities. those are going to start to be shipped in the near future and we believe they are on track to bring down the battery costs as they have projected. having said that, you look at the shares of tesla and solarcity, basically in tandem for the last five or six months. before that, not really, but now in the last five or sixth month, they have traded in and m. guys we don't know the date of the vote from tesla and solarcity, but they expect it to close in fourth quarter. >> phil, for all the skepticism surrounding the deal, the fact of the matter that tesla stock is high r from the day before the deal was announced. the earningings are going to come out this week and i think that will be sort of a key test because if there are any execution problems then the questions about this deal will resurface. if they continue to execute and fulfill their bullish forecast, maybe not so bad. >> and i think the interesting
thing is in terms of whether or not they hit 80,000 vehicles dlifedded this year. now, we know what they've delivered in the fist half, but whether or not they change guidance, whether or not they give a fairly optimist accounting in terms of how they're ramping up production of the model s and x and getting ready for model three, which the first ones will be delivered late next year. that's what people are going to be keying in on tomorrow afternoon. >> thank you. also on the call, musk said that they will likely have to do a small equity capital raise next year and stocks will sort of took it in trid. there are a lot of thing that is the shareholders right at this moment in time granted right after the deal was announced, huge hit to tesla market cap, but for now, taking in stride, waiting for the earnings. >> it really is spectacular to watch how this stock has traded. the autopilot investigation, all of the rest of that and it's held the 200 day moving average.
we talk about this, it's been very high. back to the historical levels, so there's a lot of interesting factors about how this stock is trading now. sitting here, call ilt $230 a share. i don't think any of us would have expected that given the backdrop of what we've had. >> 28% short interest in the name, so you have that underpinning the stock. expennive name. elon musk keeps you on your heels. how does this help production. >> it doesn't. nothing. >> it may not hurt though. it may not hurt though. >> distraction right now. >> good new, folk, it's an energy company. the same company we've known all along. >> it's still a, if you thought it was an auto company before, it still is with an energy unit. solarcity is a spaul piece of tesla's total mark. just to pushback. >> and that's fair. but he's expressed this vision of the future. which is that this is basically insulations, energy, storage, cars. it's okay, it's one stop
shopping for efficiencefficienc. i think there's synergy, but tell me it should be trading at the multiple. >> if he wants to be an energy company. >> why is he throwing out those huge production numbers? >> get everyone's eyes off the ball. he's throwing out heez huge massive production numbers that he would never attain. and at the end of the day, it's a car company. it's people buy into it all they want. alternative energy play. >> selling your view. >> sell. >> still ahead, are we in for a major end of summer correction? why the bears are coming out of the woods and the toks that can be your best bet. plus, biotech is up nearly 12% in the past month, but can the gains last? a top analyst explains why he thinks there's more room to run. much more "fast money" ahead.
and even funds, tom lee, is scared of the end of summer calling for its downturn in toks in august and this as we head into one of the worst months for stocks and also one of the most volatile. but there are some stocks that typically survive amid the august swoon. paul is with us to tell us which ones. everybody wants to know this, paul. gl i think to the point is if we get a rally if august, it's going to be earnings related because we're going to be reporting earnings and so far, we're seeing good numbers in the eps revenues and guidance has been strong with even between upgrades and downgrades, which is not common. you typically see more down lower guidance and we haven't seen companies menging brexit in their quarterly calls. less than half of companies have mentioned it and in most case, they've been saying it hasn't been affecting us. let's look at companies that typically do well in auction and typically react well to august reports. the first name is nvidia, the
top performing stock in the s&p 500 in october. the it's averaged 11% return. 90% of the time, it's been up. the only other stock that's been add human, it was unchanged in 2007. nvidia after its august earnings reports, eight out of the last ten time, which is in historically, the best quarter for the company. so that's the first one. second, sales force. again, valuation is typically an issue when you mention sales force. but last week's buy of oracle by net sweep makes the valuation more justifiable. net sweet was bought at 11 times sells. it's down well during august and it reports later this month. revisions by analysts are currently skewed negative to the company, so that's negative sentiment and it's reacting positively to earnings, 75% of the time.
in its august quarter, so again, there's you sort of have almost a put on the stock because there's been these buyout rumors, the stock last year that went up, never went down and if jpmorgan last april said takeout could be north of $100. finally, the third, catch my breath. >> outside of technology, that's vulcan. >> vulcan material, one issue, it comes up when you talk about infrastructure. it's the one bipartisan issue in politics right now. the stock was down 6% today after it missed earnings. but they did reiterate their guidance and they did blame the weather, which is an easy scapegoat, but when talking about an infrastructure company, outdoor weather related issues can delay prokts and vulcan has been up 80% of the time in august. last ten years. average return slightly less than 4%, but again, it has a seasonals at its back and it's trading right above 115.
>> paul, thank you. which ones would you buy? do you like any of them? >> i'd by sierra. nvidia, i'd buy. i think that's a great company. i'd stay away from humana and vulcan, i'd toss the coin in the air and guess. >> i think materials are very interesting. starting to see recovery and prices and asphalt. if you look at the fiber of their business and what we've talkeded about in terms of housing formation and what needs to happen in the housing sector, the it's happening much slower, but that's bb a consistent long-term trade and therefore, i think it will continue. >> what kind of play rather in so long. >> at least two weeks. >> played it poorly when you were gone. i feel like we cheated. >> i can't believe you guys playeded without me. would you rather, pete, intel or nvidia. >> nvidia right now. just because i think they are positioned nicely in the gaming world and because of that and i
see it everywhere i go, i would go with that. >> you? >> you want me to play the way i usually play? >> united rentals. i would play nvidia, too. the internet of things. this is where you want to be. they're in the connected house n the card. moves the needle a lot more than intel. >> still ahead, five seconds rally. even bigger gains ahead. three stocks that will take the sector higher. right after the break. plus, a big week for earnings ahead and health care stocks are shaping up to be the biggest movers. what the to expect for pfizer and amgen. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. [announcer] is it a force of nature? or a sales event? the summer of audi sales event is here. get up to a $5,000 bonus on select audi models.
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take a look at the nasdaq, surging nearly 2% and hitting a fresh high in today's session. which names will help drive this rally higher? michael, great to have you. what's changed over the past six months? has sentiment changed or manager really fundamentally changed? >> i think it's both, melissa. great to be here. if you look at the fist half of the year, the biotech stocks were hit so hard on drug pricing concerning and tweets and these stocks have been big
underperformers. when you look at the second out of the year, people are climbing the wall of worry on drug pricing. people have di jekted the political rhetoric. today, president obaositive ear week out of celgene and amgen and people are tarting to realize it was too much doomsday. good fundamentals, earnings and clinical data and a recovery. these stocks are still down year to date. they can get back up to even by the end of the year. >> you're highlighting though a few stocks here. celgene, vertex, as well as kite. do you think that these stocks will outperform the group? do you think basically, the entire group will lift or will it be be a stock specific sort of action that we'll see? >> i think that in general, this backdrop of biotech will continue to improve u. because of the things we talked about. i think within the sector, celgene, vertex and kite have important clinical data over the next couple of months that can send the stocks to be
outperformers within that. so look for the data. >> what's going on with the sort of the well loved big cap biotech stocks, gilead. are they still expegt iing to da deal with their cash? >> yeah. gilead sortover stands out as sort of a one off. you see that stock is underperformed poil whooil the rest of the group continues to move higher. i think most of wall street used the hep c, the cure markets as a one off and i think people are waiting on them to do a deal to get that stock back up. so the good news is although they've had some issues on their numbers, the rest of the stocks have outperformed. so, waiting on a deal with gilead. >> okay, after the elections, michael, will things become much better or will things become worse in your view? in that we'll get a candidate, maybe they'll get around to talking about what they will do. >> yeah. look, i think that we can move higher.
i think there's a consolidation period and a pause as whether hillary or trump wins. i think the reality as we get into 2017, we're going the find like we did many the past, that a lot of the things they talked about is more talk. particularly if the republicans maintain control of congress, so that's the case, i think the street will continue to look past that realize not a lot can get done and we're going to move higher in 2017. >> mike, thanks a lot. appreciate it. joining us from san francisco. so, in terms of these names, do you think that this rally we've seen, the six month rally in ibb, is that here to stay? >> yes. i think it could be. especially what michael's talking about in terms of the political side of it. sounds like he's more bullish coming out of the political side of it than a lot of us started to feel. maybe back in november last year when hillary had a tweet. i think the interesting thing about celgene, we like the pipene, where they are. we like the fact it's a 16 pe
and this is a biotech with incredible growth. he's got a 125 or 35 a target. it's one of those name, i think this name can outperform. >> i agree. dwaif you credit for that last week. celgene is the pest pipelibest pipeline in biotech. bi ork gen, this could be a $320 tok by the end of the week because of the positive news flow we've seen in the name. something gets lifted up in one of those, where a little cover, stocks move. >> let's stick with big pha a ma and biotech. another week of earnings, mike khouw has the latest. >> hey, how are you? >> so, yes, we have three names that are reporting this week. collectively, we're see iing th options market a pli about a $10 billion swing in valuations. first, pfizer. markets implying about a 2% move. that translates just you should $4.6 billion move.
that stock and we have allergan. about a 3.7% move. that's about a $3.7 billion swing there and then finally, i bimarine. about a billion in market cap. all thee have been seeing bullish flow. in pfizer, only 2% and then average move significantly larger, the september calls are getting a good value on a cheap stock to make a bullish bet. the other two because the moves are typically larger, you see people selling calls, mildly bullish bets. >> in big pharma. >> pfizer. been there forever. slow and steady as she goes. >> i like pfizer. i think again, you look at the big pharma space. valuations are there. we had them on last week. i think it's interesting. having said all that, i think these are still wildly volatile stocks. not playing ahead of earnings. >> check out the full show
fridays 5:30 p.m. earn time. up next, final trade. ta tuned. i'm here at the td ameritrade trader offices. steve, other than making me move stuff, what are you working on? let me show you. okay. our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place and lets you visualize that information for any options series. okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. impressive... what's up, tim. td ameritrade.
i'm hampton pearson in our washington bureau. we want to take you to a rally in omaha, nebraska, where warren buffett a long time hillary clinton sportder going back to 2008. even before. is expected to perhaps endorse hillary clinton. the democratic nominee. for president. so far, in his introtuktry raushs, haven't seent hk yet. mr. buffett has called on mr. trump to release his tax returns. an issue that he and other leading democrats have raised time and time again with mr. trump. as far as disclosure and pointing out the fact that most recent presidential candidates in the modern era have in fact released their tax returns. as you can see, now, mr. buffett talking to that omaha, nebraska
crowd in anticipation of seeing hillary clinton and her irremar, but calling on trump to release his tax returns while we await hillary clinton in omaha, nebraska. >> thank for that. you can see hillary behind donald trump. excuse me, behind warren buffett. time now for the final trade. around the horn here. >> looking back on this pharma section, look iing at bristol myers. i think the stock's going higher m going to break through the 52-week highs. >> jc penney up. i locked in some profits. i think longer term, the is in tact. the overall market doesn't. >> talked about biotech. biogen. i'm a buy r of the stock. higher. >> no. a pleasure to have you back on the desk. >> wonderful to be back.
we had great help. great to have you back. if you're playing in emerging markets, a fine place to go to currencies aren't cheap and export. ewi korea is the call. >> i'm melissa lee. thanks again for watching. see my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now! hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends, i just want to help you make some money. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. how do you look at things? what's your time horizon? as we start august, which is historically the toughest