tv Fast Money Halftime Report CNBC August 5, 2016 12:00pm-1:01pm EDT
that jobs number, market high, guys, and then, of course, opening ceremonies tonight. i assume you'll all watch jrchlt . >> we will be. >> find out who writes the cauldron. great to see. 7:30 p.m. eastern time. that does it from "squawk alley" and from rio. over to scott wapner, the judge, and "the half." carl, thanks so much. welcome to the "halftime report." i'm scott wapner. top trade this hour, tech on a tear. the sector at its highest level in 16 years with stocks from social media to software off and running. with us for the hour today, jon najarian, stephanie link, josh
brown and john spalen zahny, chief macrostrategist with cig group. and spurred today by a blowout jobs report, many big stocks are on the move this hour continuing what has been a great quarter, and, josh, it's been tech. tech's the best performer in the quarter. i mentioned all of the sectors that are ripping. stocks like microsoft at levels not seen since january of 2000, nvidia, highest level since 1999. >> yeah. well, the last to break out, but certainly making up for that. look at the xlk, the tech sector, s&p circuit spider. what's important here is, it's slightly overbought. short-term rsi. about 73. could see a little bit of a pullback there, but momentum is a positive thing. not a negative thing. turning our attention to the ndx name, 71% of the nasdaq names
above the 200-day moving average. go back a full year to find that. the difference between now and last summer, accelerating. last summer, that percentage was tapering off. breadth is expanding. leadership names are acting like leaders, and i think that it's way more positive than it is negative. >> doc, check this out. social media, give you a few names from each space to give you an idea what we're talking about. zynga up 20%. a alphabet up. old tech, qualcomm up, cisco, fang stocks working, amazon up, netflix up. does it continue? >> yeah it does. and when you look at the gold pro, it's coming off, of course, a horrible performance, and this is one i've owned here for about the last month. gold pro is up i think 27%, judge. over that same period. all over, just the last month,
not even the quarter, amberella, what makes gopro up, up i believe 20%. does it keep going? i think it does. i think there's a lot of reasons that microsoft with the move not just into the cloud but, and the -- over with, you know, the distribution of all of their office suite via that and instead of having to buy that all on software, judge, i think this is a tremendous move and the microsoft move in particular has room to build. >> this, steph, is the rotation people have been looking for. you get the better jobs report, a great jobs report last month. yields moving higher, yield plays fall out of favor and then you want to be, if you think the economy is pretty good, want to be in cyclical plays like tech. >> what i've said a while and obviously very early in saying it. early part of the year, but i did think that the second half of the year setup was pretty goodened a the jobs report per spect in every way.
especially the wage number. 2.6% annualized growth is a very good number. upper end of that seven-year range we've seen. still want to see it grow and xmand. gives me confidence the economy is the trajectory is on the right path. if we see a second half pickup you will see cyclicals outperform defensives. i'm not abandoning the defensive trade. you still want a bargain. august is a trky month but i think you'll see the second half of year set up very good. noke a laggard and by the way, probably underweight on many portfolio managers. knew that with apple, and that behind a big part of that move. a catch-up trade for sure. >> jon is this, in fact, confirmation of that rotation that people have been looking for? >> i think, yeah. i think also discounting the fact that something good will happen in november. getting tax cuts, infrastructure spending. the fang stocks took off nicely. really off the charts. i think, again, as jon said, microsoft going after linkedin,
semis on fire. sic cisco pays 3% dividend. bag cap, old cap, nothing, but staying big. not to mention the biotechs are rallying, merck, a little biotech company inside of it. we're seeing all of that money put to good use and good work and i think the rally continues. >> josh, are the fang stocks back? i mean, i said facebook is up 10% in the quarter. after kind of being left for dead there. are they back? are they going to emerge as leadership group again? >> maybe not. because i think that the way to really feel about these companies is that the ones that can continue to outperform expectations, three out of four are, they're their own story. i don't think people are trading them in a block. i think people decide i want to be long google, long facebook or add to these possessions. i don't think people are saying, put on the fang trade. these stocks, the good news is
three out of the four of them look good technically. and continue to outperform expectations. forget about the acronym. company is doing fine. >> fang and only fang last year. thighs ye this year, fang and everything else. you mentioned all the names. so many good earnings report from this quarter and impressive, on average, technology 30% exposure in europe. yet still able to deliver very good growth, very good margins operating leverage. i think it expands. goes beyond fang. they can continue i think and also continue to think that cloud works. i think security software is a contrarian play and you want to look at some of those blowups we're seeing today over the last couple days and still want to own some growth and value. >> no one wants to ring a register at all on the areas that have had pretty good runs and the stock? whether cloud or elsewhere? >> not yet. the fundamentals are still
strong. get around the valuations. even facebook. valuation at 31 times forward but the company's growing 45%, 50%. same aamazon. google probably cheapest of the fang and look at cloud names where you're going to see growth. i think you'll continue to see the momentum there. >> by the way, oh, apple up 13% over the last month. somewhat of a stealth rally, not so much. it had the big earnings boost that shut down a lot of the naysayers. >> yeah. a lot of people true bears going into the quarter obviously and a lot of the bad news in it, we said last time. those under calls worked out well. going forward, you know, last time everybody said, apple tied to china bmi. remember that story? all of a sudden china pmi rallies, apple railed a little more ar china pmi came out. the other thing going on. china healing, going to services. more fiscal spending there. good story in india. right? just started a national sales
tax. what will they use that money for? inf infrastructure? build roads? developing that company. japan, same thing. >> doc, you don't own the dofst. anyone on the desk that doesn't. why? >> in my portfolio, judge, i thought i saw better opportunities in other stocks. i still think i'll get a shot to buy it again at 100 before they have the big announcement for the iphone 7. so i could be wrong about that, just like i've been wrong about getting into it too soon. >> what as technically, josh? how does apple set up from here? >> looks great, but run into resistance to some extent. needs good news to put it over the top. good news about apple, meaning good news, pretty much no one expected 2-it-to come and a great setup in this name over the years, you kind of buy if in the middle of a no-man's-land in terms of product cycle and low and behol people get more positive getting closer to the
cycle. that's where we are now. >> a huge benchmark name. over 3%. if you're yauunderweight that, chase. if you think fundamentals changed, a catalyst. that's happened since reported. the quarter okay, guidance a little less bad than we thought, but we have, still waiting for the product cycle story. so the problem is that portfolio managers can't wait for that for a while apple was decoupled itself from the market. is it getting back to a point where jobs report was good. if the market takes another leg, if the rally gets re-ignited one of the questions we're asking, does apple go along with it or still remain its own story? >> i think it's tougher to say that it's going to follow that pattern, because the phone market, every year, becomes more and more saturated. more and more of the apples upside depends on people getting a replacement phone rather than the first person to buy a new phone nap said, the ecosystem is
growing substantially. an area of the story people are more and more willing to talk about as it gets bigger and more important and new markets. so china is not what people thought two years ago. still a new market. india is wide open. so there are things that aren't in the stock yet, maybe a little harder to get excited about as the overall market rallies. >> to the extent you think jobs are improving and waging improving and the consumer has more money in their pocket, you could make a case for apple participating, if you think consumer is going to participate. i would say a little of both. josh is right to a lot of his points, but in addition to if you think the economy is improving, stock should do well. >> and also the fact we're in a bull market. even though people don't want to recognize that fact. people are looking for things to buy that are down. apple down on 92, and looking to put money to work. that's not a bad place to be. i think we saw a lot of that money rotating it.
the waiting, helping the diamonds and the qs at the same time. they're ripping apple, ripping qs too. >> a stallout in the rally if there was, stretch of eight straight down days for the dow, seven, eight, whatever it was. >> only in that period. >> i was going to say the period dow only down 1.4%. it's been in range. so does dotoday's jobs report pivot us out of that range? forget the -- we've moved. >> the overall market. is the rally re-ignited because of what happened today? >> yes. and the reason, look at xlf versus xlu, judge. obviously the one with the fins, xlf versus the utility etf, look at the opposite dreshgz directi they're going in a big way and then look at, like, online lenders. take -- which is another area that benefits from. look at brokers.
t.d. ameritrade. schwab, moving 5% to 5% today. look at though and then some of the life insurance names. the generworths get most of the year. 4%-plus moves there. >> today's the day to get into those? finally? >> yeah. well, especially spg like a genworth ats 3 $3. got down below $2 not long ago. lincoln lnc. look at pru as well. some of these i think metlife in particular judge got hit, i believe, just two days ago. >> yesterday, yeah. >> yesterday. and then that provided you with a great opportunity. so, yeah. i'd say these could certainly provide that boost to the s&p 500. >> and the biggest surprise to me is that we've seen the backup in yields as much as we have. so since july 8th, the ten year bond has gone up 20 basis points, and so today was kind of critic's in my view that this report if it continued to see
mo momentum, more upside in yields and banks and financials participating, horrible performers year to date. get thez to go, maybe we can -- >> score card on the screen. josh, you don't think that today's jobs report re-ignites this rally? >> i question the premise. i don't think the rally ended. i think we've been in a very, very slow grinding breakout, one sector at a tile. today financials joining, nice. look at xlf, completing inverse head and shoulders pattern. >> my point, and we got to this point in the market, we hit new highs and then sort of stalled out. we had a string of down days for the dow. people questioning -- >> perfectly natural. >> let me finish. >> go ahead. >> people questioned whether august would see some kind of correction. >> yeah. >> this today's jobs report does it remove that? >> no. could have a question next week. china could say something crazy
sunday night. the idea that -- >> not talking about a 1% or 2% correction, but an 8, 9, 10%, real correction, gets people paying attention. >> the question is not could there be a correction? there always could. the question, are you ready to take advantage of it when it comes and different types of investors have a different answer. some repair with diversification and markets zig and happening to zag, a cash balance maybe a short strategy. without a doubt august is not a great month historically compared to say january or february, but doesn't mean anything, because look how bad january and february were this year? you can say things like, well, 60% of the time august is down. okay. but nobody tells you when you're in the other 40 or not. i would not get worried about calendar, season stuff. focus on improving be ining bree
stocks doing getter. and now all of a sudden perking up, positive stuff and the fact it's coinciding with stronger than expected economic data, a break outisn't the citigroup economic surprise index, not negative things, guys. >> good stuff. what else is coming up on the "halftime report." >> announcer: stocks may be hitting an all-time high, but wall street's biggest bear says, not so fast, and that stocks are headed for a correction this year. plus -- top retail analyst david telsey upgrading to coach, putting a buy rating ton ahead of next week's earnings. more "halftime report" with scott wapner in two minutes. oh watson, your japanese is very good. thank you. (speaking japanese) exactly. i can understand nuance, context and idiom in seven languages to help companies all over the world with everything from retail solutions, to banking, to cyber security. (speaking japanese)
welcome back to the "halftime report." stocks at all-time highs. our next guest is throwing cold water on the rally. the biggest bear on the street. ben laidler, global equity strategist as hsbc joins us live from new york city. welcome, ben. >> thank you. >> you came in today with the lowest target. wondering how you're feeling now after that jobs report? >> certainly a good jobs report but we're cautious on equities including the u.s. you have economic policy uncertainty, really high around the world. brexit clearly didn't help. we think that has real consequences in terms of cap ex, earnings growth and the u.s. is not immune. context of u.s. valuations on a 25% history, u.s. earnings growth, still seeing down side from here and sentiment far from poor.
>> i'll give you some of the things you said, but the brexit fallout seems to be over-rated, at least for the impact outside of great britain. >> i think that's hope over reality. haven't seen the data yet and will see it over the next few months and we've been cutting gdp estimates in europe and in the u.s. and i think this just undermines further the earnings outlook, the cap ex outlook and again it's happening at the back drop of a market riding very sharply, sentiment bounce back and valuations at the highest level we've seen in a very, very long time. >> cap ex a concern following the most recent gdp report and we focused on that a number of times questioning what it means for the overall market and if it would cause companies to cut back on dividends. what if now you have another good jobs report that backed up the last one that companies actually start to feel more confident, that they start spending more? that they realize that the brexit fallout at least here in the united states may not be as
severe as some people think or as it could be elsewhere? >> yeah. the key to change our view is revenue growth. really what we're lacking glowly. you get that, i think the outlook is much, much better. absent that, though, seeing year-to-date less than 2% jobs growth in the u.s. very focused on services. manufacturing still very weak. business investments very weak and i argue those are the crucial bits for s&p 500 earning and don't forget, wage growth continuing to creep up here. u.s. corporate margins, 30-year highs coming under pressure here. absent revenue growth, the key, i think those margins get undermyroned and look where s&p 500 earnings and expectations are for next year. far, far, too high. the next story. cutting those from 13% to 14% down to zero just like this year. >> hi. i was wondering what you thought about the atlanta fed print yesterday, 3.7% for the gdp?
>> yeah. i think the fed's going to stay reasonably cautious here. i think they're going to look for gdp growth -- to accelerate closer to 2% rather than the sort of 1.2% of last yaur. un un unemployment to come down. pencilled in one rate hike only in the middle of next year. see how that pans out but i think the fed will move cautiously. >> ben, appreciate the time. thanks for joining us. >> thank you. >> ben laidler with hsbc. what do we any of his thesis, guys? >> i can see why he's cautious at least, judge. >> not cautious. flat out negative. >> not saying short the market. he does have a 10% lowered target than where we are but i don't think he's saying be short this market here. it's interesting the way the fed and in particular, you know, the fomc focus in on, okay, forget
about gdp. that doesn't matter. it's the jobs report. and if the jobs report was bad, which is was through two different months of the past four, then they'd say, okay, well, it's really the things are going to pick up in the second half, to steph's point, and we don't need to worry about the bad jobs report. in other words, economists are always juggling these things. ben happens to be one of the folks that has to do that on a broad basis for had. sbc. i understand why he's cautious and don't think that anybody -- >> i mean, historic, throwing shade all over the whole global story. >> yeah. >> and -- >> going to have to be cut down, that brexit will have a much bigger impact than people think. >> and when you test among the brexit thing, it hasn't played out yet. it played out for all of like 24 hours. that was it. >> we still have to see how that whole thing shakes out. >> tone. >> not willing to give it a total pass. i think europe is actually slowing and vulnerable.
read his note. more worried about europe and japan thersz the u.s. the point the market goes higher if earnings go higher. you have to, you do have to watch his wage comments that will tie into margins, if we just go higher. but i believe growth, second half of the year, will maybe offset where the margin story plays out. >> keep hearing this thing about manufacturing is, you know, the underlying data -- it's not coming back, guys. you're anchoring to the 1970s. kiss it good-bye. we're a services-based economy. unfortunate. maybe you want to see more things made here and improves a little but that's just not what we do. let it go and looking a the services economy, it's in really good shape. getting in better shape. we're 70 consecutive months of adding payrolls. not fake jobs. they're not -- people doing things required in this economy, and on the business investment front, let's understand, this is not a leading indicator. business investment is not going to pick up until the signal is sent that it's time. and that is not going to happen
until we reach a certain threshold in the rest of the economy. when it does happen, it happens all at once. it's unfortunate. we obviously would like to see that component better, but housing is great. employment great. much bigger issues. bristol-myers, plunging, competitor merck soars. joining us with the latest. plus from priceline to gm, the headlines behind the stock moves and stradtrades. that's next in "the blitz." where we explore. protecting biodiversity. everywhere we work. defeating malaria. improving energy efficiency. developing more clean burning natural gas. my job? my job at exxonmobil? turning algae into biofuels. reducing energy poverty in the developing world. making cars go further with less. fueling the global economy. and you thought we just made the gas. ♪ energy lives here.
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we're back on the "halftime report." huge moves in bristol-myers and merck on the heels of a cancer study. joining us on the phone with details sending stocks in option directions, meg. what's happening? >> scott, this was really a shock to the market this morning. evercore calling it possibly the biggest clinical surprise of his career. >> hmm. >> involving phase three study of bristol-myers drug and seen clinical trial after clinical trial reading out positively for this drug. when it failed this morning in this space, pre-trile in lung cancer, everybody was shocked.
competing with merck in this space. merck had positive clinical trials for its drug earlier in the summer. this is a giant patient copulation. high unmet medical lead. putting the market virtually $12 billion a year for patients who haven't tried other drugs before, and it didn't read out positively. people aren't saying because opdivo doesn't work as well, it's poe potentially in the way they tested the drug. merck went for a narrow are set of tests. bristol-myers went for a bigger patient population. that's the difference. seeing merck rising on this news. bristol myers sinking quite a bit. also implications more broadly for other companies working in immunotherapy including es tra zdenka, roach and pfizer. a shake-up in the whole sector
now. >> for certain. meg terrell. thanks for calling in. talk soon. josh, steph and jon, all bought brittle myers. doc? >> bought it for clients, bought it in the pre-market even, judge, before some of the more in-depth stuff was actually coming out, just because we believe this company is not just about one drug. not a one-trick pony, but when you spend the money to get to the phase three, which meg can talk about ad nauseam, a drug i phase three you've spent hundreds of millions of dollars to get to the that point. why they're hitting the stock so hard today because of the spend. they're not going to shelf this thing or throw it away. just as meg said, they're more likely, judge, i believe, to move on concentrating on a different group of patients, and saying, okay. this works, and/or it works as a cocktail -- that move in, steph in bristol-myers, coincides with the comment of the biggest
surprise of his career? >> i understand. >> what gave you confidence to get into it today? >> even take out the numbers, about 2 billion, take out 5 billion over the next five years. but we don't even know what it will look like in two years lit alone five. well sponsored or the sell and buy side. people loved this name. that said, maybe total revenues from 10% growth to 8%. earnings from 21% to maybe 18% growth. this is still a very impressive growth story and it's now on sale, a nice yield. i think by the way, you could also own merck. own them both. >> boa upgraded merck to outperform. >> seeing certainly big momentum on this news. probably adding 1.5 billion to revenues this year. maybe 2 billion next.
>> about $10 north of where merck is currently staying. you bought bristol-myers as well. >> immediately right on the open. one of the things that separates professor professional investors from those with not much experience yet, the idea risk actually goes down an stock plunges like this. not up. the perception, rvgisky. you have a 20% discount on one of the top blue chip stocks in the world. forget about the united states. you now have a 2% dividend yield. paid above what you get on treasury. to steph's point, we don't know what the five-year implications will be. it you're an investor, you have an opportunity. if you're a trader, even. look at the risk/reward. 58 and change. you want to risk to make 15 or 20? not a terrible risk/reward either. i didn't have to think long about t. and your merck calls?
>> the same drug jimmy carter took when he had his melanoma and it cured hill. one of the reason it was treated as a huge drug. on the bristol myers side, get it cheaper because of so many holders of this, institutional holders who have to sell the stock now that it's down so much. the overhang is over 500 million shares and own 51 million on the table. a lot of guys still have to sell over the next coming days probably a week or so. go into high 50s and you can get a better price. >> sue herera has the latest headslines. >> what's happening this hour, apple is offering a bug bounty. yep. you heard me right. the tech giant will pay you up to $200,000 if you discover and report a flaw in its software. and if you donate the rewards to charity, apple will match that. the mayor of fairfax, virginia, is in legal trouble. police say scott silverthorn used a gay website to find partners and offer them me
methamphetamines in exchange for sex. arrested thursday night when he allegedly agreed to meet an undercover officer at a fairfax hotel. and fifa's committee clearing the president of misconduct allegations. the move follows weeks of speculations that he would be suspended from office. but fifa investigators found no conflict of interests and no violation of code of ethics. with the olympic ceremonies hours i way, brazil is increasing its security presence. members of the public security force made a point of patrolling the media center this morning. additional soldiers are patrolling olympic venues as well. you can see the opening ceremonies on nbc. that's the cnbc news update this hour. back to you. >> 7:30's tonight. >> you got t. sue herera, thanks. coming up, a handful of retailers reporting earnings next week including coach up 28% this year and dana telsey updated to outperform and joins
should you buy a drop? and high-end homes, what the latest price data is telling us. all that top of the hour on "power lunch." scott, back to you. >> thanks, melissa. and turning more positive on coach and also about michael kors. >> coach is back? turning the corner? >> certainly feels a lot better. keep in mind they did an investor day june of 2014 talking about it will take two years for a transition, and june of '16, return to a positive comp quarter. reporting results on tuesday. i think the comp will be a positive. very low single digits. 1.5, 2% numbers like that, but overall, easy comparisons, the fact they have less exposure to department stores, the brand enhancement occurred. look at the disney collaboration, look at the new world bag, improvements in
acceptance of their product becoming more modernized. yes, they have outload exposure but diverse outload exposure not just the tourist malls, and still have cash to deploy. cash to deploy basically whether the more buyback or for an acquisition and have done a good job bringing weitzman into the fold with it contributing to the bottom line. >> cannot argue with the stock performance. up 31.5% over a year, is there a chance you're late to the party, da dana? >> well, this company generating, can get back to generating numbers again keeping the current multiple on that and certainly 49 is my first stop. i think it can go higher from there. i think when you think about the whole handbag sector, each in different stages of life. kors is now going towards maturity and using that cash flow story. and kate spade basically had a
more company-specific issue to transition to. >> dana, hi, stephanie. i have a question. >> hi. >> just a question on margins. i get the whole top line acceleration story. done a good job rebranding the company, but margins kind of continue to suffer. so when do you see that inflecting and when do you see it actually changing for the group? because of the competitive environment? >> i think right now one of the changes with this group is, this isn't a group that's going to have 30%-plus operating margins. this is a group that's going to be high teen, low 20s type of operating margins. i think overall you're still seeing a very promotional time period. i think the operating margins for companies like a coach will have steady state types of improvement and never back to where they are, but also coming out of the depressed trough where they had been. >> and kors, you go -- sorry to interrupt. more negative on kors. which, by the way, has had its own stellar run. >> uh-huh, and i think overall with kors, i don't think i call
it negative. just i think this is a year can with their transitioning. negative comps, reducing exposure in the department store channel, and you're first going to see a lot more newness in product offering's a think you have an acceleration in top-line at coach. i think a moderation in kors, flat north american business and my stocks trade on sales growth. sales growth is what drives stock price increases. >> gotcha. dana, have a good weekend. see you soon. >> thank you. dana telsey joining us. a lot of retail earnings next week by the way. how about this call? josh? >> coach over kors? >> you know -- >> 20 minutes left. >> no. i'm thinking how hard it is. >> thinking be a the pokemon go. >> thinking how hard with the two stocks. look, they have business execution issues sometimes, and sometimes get it right, but the institutes of fashion are so difficult in general, and then when you think about this narrower area of handbags and
shoes, even tougher. it's not my area. technically both stocks a mess. note interested in neither. neither trending in one direction or another just yet but i might change my mind. >> steph, correct me if i'm wrong. i remember it had to be a while ago, maybe it was a year ago you is ed that you wanted to bet on coach, making a comeback? >> yes. i have said that, and you can -- trade around -- >> give you credit. >> thank you. play around the stock. i don't own it. i don't own any of them. i'm worried about saturation in general. i don't know how many handbags a woman or man needs each year. >> doc, how much does a man need? >> my man bag? >> walked into that. >> but the reason why i've favored, or have favored recently in coach is because of the restructuring, because the company is piling in so much money trying to get the brand back to where it once was. you're at an inflection. the question i asked dana, if you don't have margin or operating leverage, i just don't know how much you have in an environment that's very, very
competitive. >> give me the best name on the list, then in a week that's going to have chock full of retail earnings? you have kors, ralph, coach, kohl's, macy's, nordstrom, jcpenney? anybody own any of them? >> nordstrom. >> and you choose that in the best of -- at the mall? >> no. got beaten down and i think they're diversified distribution is interesting to me. they have high end. do they have the rack? online. 20% of their total revenues. stock up to 3 6 with a 4 yield and i think the balance sheet can handle that'si'm not sure the stock can go back to where it was, probably think it can't, but barbelling it with an amazon, actually hitting on on cylinders, yet expensive, nurses the nordstrom, some upside div given valuation. >> and tj has earnings yesterday. bought it ed? >> under unusual activity. >> yes, sir. coming up, jon najarian tracking action in the options market.
his bullish bet is in the travel space, and it is next, but first, let's show you the s&p sector heat map. big day on wall street today. the s&p is up -- >> notice what's red. >> i do. >> how it should be. >> yes. >> enough already with that. >> telecom and utilities selling off. a more offensive day. s&p's up near lir 18. we are back after this. for market-moving interviews. >> you don't call a company a sewer because the company made a mistake. >> announcer: real money -- >> we are short both tesla and solar city. >> announcer: -- real debates. >> people think that globalization has hurt businesses. it's not. it is technology that's hurt businesses. >> competition is a good thing. i don't want to go back to a single marketplace. >> announcer: the most profitable hour of the trading day. >> i love this show! all i do is get to tweet about this show! i'm on the show. this is the greatest moment of my life! >> announcer: the "halftime report." weekdays at noon eastern. where, in all of this,
welcome back to the "half." jon najarian makes his way to the telestrator. play isn't options action for me. what's going on? >> today a stock extremely volatile this week. royal caribbean, rcl. look at it. when the stock, beginning of the year, right around $102 a share. cratered all the way down. in fact, this week moved from 74 to 66 on the earnings and now it's right back up. look where it is right now at 74.01. what did we see?
unusual buying activity in both the august 75 calls and the september 75 calls. both traded well over the open interest, meaning we're seeing new trades opening up. look at these calls. moved up to this level for those sepp 75s, judge, bought a spread in royal caribbean because especially with this volatility like i already described, 74, 66, back to 74. in three days? that's why i have a spread rather than just outright calls. >> looking for a short-term kind of a move? >> they are. and obviously, i would think that zika and other things would, in some cases, keep people from moving to the caribbean on a ship. however, bookings have been strong, and when you looked at this latest earnings report, despite the volatility, in right back to where it was before. >> doc, thank you. >> thank you. >> all right. >> ceo bought shares the other day. 30,000 shares.
>> he did? >> yeah. 30,000 shares, that was the other reason the stock piled. >> glad you brought in up. oil prices falling, ending a rally. two-day trades, plus, the missing link. not missing we found her. take-out targets in the food sector. three stocks she said you need to own right now, coming up. andrea sikon. medical doctor from cleveland clinic, watson, let's review the electronic medical record of the next patient.. no problem. it's a pretty huge file. done. sorry for the wait.
that was quick. as part of our research, i also compared lab results with notes about prior treatments, then cross referenced it with thousands of medical journals. and i get the benefit of much more data, and a lot more time to plan the best treatments. i stay focused 24/7 and never sleep. you sound like a lot of medical students i know.
"halftime report", we're reporting from the imex. crude oils for futures now. on a down slide into the weekend. we had a strong job report this week that takes us higher, but what's behind the drop today? >> exclusively the dollar for crude oil. we know that because if you look at the commodities that are nominated in dollars, crude, gold, and silver, and one that's immune to that, purely domestic, is gasoline, it's actually up a little bit today so that tells you that the dollar is strong, strong dollar is really what's behind the break we see today in crude. >> despite the dollar, jim, do you think crude continues to slide from here? >> well, i think the negative argument for crude is compelling because it's not just the dollar. it's also chinese import numbers lower as well, and there's a real global slow down. however, we can, in two months time, crude traded off over 20%. to have a counter trend rally
within that is completely reasonable, and i think we're at the beginning of that. today's been a little bit weak. i think it could trade up between 43 and 44, and that's just a third of the down move before resuming lower. in the short term, i'm a bull. >> thank you so much. if you want more, go to futuresnow.cnbc.com, back with a live show tuesday at 1:00 p.m. eastern. back to you. >> thank you so much. have a good weekend. >> you too. >> i want to talk about eog. upgraded over at deutsche bank. did you say it's the biggest position you have right now? >> in the energy waiting, yeah, i do. i like the management. they've done a good job in terms of hanging in the best and challenging environment, but the quarter was good and guidance was good. >> you bought more today? >> i did. and same analyst downgraded oxy, and i trimmed some. i'm overweight there, 4% yield, doing the right thins, but i made good money there, but
putting that in eog because it's offense versus defense. i want in the decline we've seen and get more based in energy because i think in the fall, you will see oil prices gradually come up. >> what about the dollar issue the guys on futures now mentioned? i mean, it's significant. >> it's a big deal. >> potentially if there's a ramp in the economy, if the fed starts chattering. jackson hole looms. >> it is a big deal, but i think the dollar stays in trading range, and as long as it doesn't escalate from here, i think better growth and better economic data points we get lead to better demand, and the supply, after august, maybe september, that supply actually gets better as well, and so, again, i think you want offensive versus defensive in this sector. >> keep in mind, it's -- >> and you agree? >> well, yeah. >> you're still xle? >> on the dollar i agree. i don't know that getting into aggressive oil names, not saying it couldn't work, but it's not what i'm doing. it's not the dollar versus
nothing. it's the dollar-yen, issues where stimulus less than expected and will stop talking about it for a while. it's not the dollar in vacuum keeping me from being overly concerned from a sudden risk. >> the opec came out today and said they might relook at doing freeze later in the year, but i think that if the atlanta fed, gdp, going back to that, go up to 3.7%, even off a little bit, that means the economy's better, oil demand's picking up, and that bodes well for the sector. >> you're not buying it? easy money's been made? >> well, i -- there are some that i'm looking at. >> like what? >> well, steph just got me to focus in on anadarc, for instance, apc. there's strong unusual activity in this name today, and so they are starting to get some activity into the energy sector where we have not seen it in awhile as far as aggressive buying of calls rather than just
people selling calls aggressively against their portfolios. that's what we're starting to see. if that continues, it bodes well in the fall. >> up next, three hours into trade, looking at earnings next week. there's disney, baba, shake shack and more. talking about them next. opportunities aren't always obvious. sometimes they just drop in. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. cme group: how the world advances. bacteria can hide in food and make you ill. wow! announcer: but you can keep bacteria from ruining your day
>> i -- >> do you want to continue? this is the missing link, what are you watching? >> watching the food space. kello kellogg, and kraft-heinz with a good number yesterday, but they are ahead of plan. they are not done with m&a. i think if they go after mondelez or kellogg, and -- i don't know how it's going to play out, but i think mondelez is going after them, so i think it gets interesting. i think you got all in all great. >> second half trades. >> sure. >> took talk to me about fire eye. >> love to, judge. boy, what a winner. no. >> not. >> on the 28th of july, unusual activity the day of net sweep. jumped on the 17 calls in september because of the unusual
buying at the 19 strike. stock ran up, sold 19th against it. if i was just in the 17 calls naked, i would have lost 12,000 bucks. i still lost money on this trade because i bought something for $1.70 and sold something at $1.20, a 50 cents risk, but i lost $2600 on the risk, not a good trade for me -- >> could have been worse. >> limit the spread, limit your loss. >> disney reports next week. we just passed this week, the one-year anniversary of the comment about espn sending the media space in a tail spin. what do we think now? >> i'm watching it closely. this is a blue chip company i want to own because of great properties and a great film slate. down 9% year to date with a 1-4 yield, higher over time, not
getting in ahead of the quarter, but it falls materially, it's time. we know this news. >> i have none so far, so i'm not proud of myself. i'm hoping for a so-so quarter, and that's when i buy p. >> great stuff. have a great weekend. all of you now. "power" begins now. ♪ welcome to "power lunch," sending stocks to record highs, what happened to all the fear of the fed? we've got all your need to know about everything that matters to your money. plus, a tail of two pharmaceutica pharmaceuticals. it is the best of times and maybe the worst of times for these two names. and as the music says, we are taking you live to rio, not sure if anybody's dancing on the sand, but the world is ready for the opening ceremony of the 31st olympi olympics. fire up that