tv Fast Money Halftime Report CNBC August 10, 2016 12:00pm-1:01pm EDT
>> trolls don't get invited to rio. you got to bring something pap lesson. >> sweetest revenge we can think of for leslie jones and think we're enthusiastic about the games now. wait until she gets here in the coming days and next week. have fun watching tonight. see you tomorrow. back to the judge and "the half." all right. cue, thanks. welcome to the "halftime report." i'm scott wapner. top trade this hour is it finally time for the financials after lagging the market for months. the sector's on a run lately leading some to say the banks are back. are the gains short lived or something more? ask our panel. with us the hour today steve weiss, josh brown, jon najarian and kevin o'leary. o shares investment, and kevin, xlf up, jpmorgan, goldman 8.
are banks back? >> scott, look at it this way. the fourth time we've had this conversation only to have our hearts broken 60 days late whir the fed doesn't raise rates. a great trade. investment? no. banks aren't ready for primetime. a sector that will lag against next year if the fed doesn't give 50 bips at least of rate hikes. think don't make money. roi, absolutely terrible. >> anybody on the other side of that? no one likes the banks here and thinks they're back? >> two things. kevin is absolutely right. where rates are right now and where pretty much everyone predicts they'll be for the foreseeable future, not good investments. not great businesses. kevin probably wouldn't invest in a community bank that walked up to him and said this is what we have in front of us to make money, but -- how much of that is already in these names, and how much of what we're seeing is the condition now has the opportunity to change beyond six months. i don't think anyone here knows the answer.
>> because your guy krinsky on, jonathan krinsky, technician a lot of people watched sitting on this sit right where kevin was yesterday saying they are back. >> let's's clear. whoa whoa, whoa. winch the s&p financials, not necessarily as dependent as that spread. look at xlf, xpy ratio down 9% over the last year. there is room for me in reversion and probably areas within the financials that recover quicker and with more force than maybe the big banks that we always end up talking ab's so i toned agree with kevin. the evidence is not quite there that these names are investable once again. >> how i look at the banks. exceedingly well managed. those ceos, i said before, tried, true, been through financial wars, through government regulation. >> if only they could manage
interest rates. raise rates themselves. >> they can't do. they've moved up a couple reasons. number one, seen economic data that's improved until they got productivity numbers. the fed is closer to going than not. does that mean december? possibly. but the issue is that even if they go it doesn't mean all that mu much. so it's a waiting game. you don't have yields that are fat enough to really pay you to wait. so where are you going to go? if you want to play leverage the cycle play schwab, but it you're an investor looking to get marked this level, where are you going? going into a sector that hasn't participated, and that, of course, is the bank of financials. >> year to date, no argument there. laid a big, fat egg. the worst performing sector by, by leaps and bounds. financials of the second best performing sector along with materials behind technology, which has had a phenomenal run. >> where the -- stand outs.
>> and credit card companies, getting the money for nothing and the chicks for free. that's why you've got visa moving up by 3% on the year when s citi group is down 12. take a credit card over any of these any day of the week especially after the weight put on you just talked about. i think they got ahead of themselves. i think a december rate hike but a one and done again and maybe another year before we get another quarter percent. i think each time you get a rally, take advantage of it, take money of the table in those stocks. >> a trade setup in goldman sachs. a is to be doubled bottom, 135 positive 140 powerfully. now the stock back above its 200 day for the first time since november. >> uh-huh. >> of course, rates would help goldman. an asset management business, et cetera, but not purely dependent on that. make money in a lot of other ways. >> political risk with goldman.
the go-to lightning rod name assuming hillary becomes company. she love to bash that name. frankly, these banks, targets of politicians. >> biggest backers on the street are goldman. put money into a suntrust hedge fund. >> between now and november, best thing she can say how much she's going to make them pay. i listen to it every speech they makes and from trump's camp, too. they're still bashing. is the political cloud going to push this p down until you resolve on the other side of the election? on the other hand they're making no mun, no return on -- >> do you feel, though, that the market believes her statements against wall street, are general jin because i don't. >> i agree with you, but that actually doesn't help her. think about it. it's kind of an interesting dynamic we have politically here. but i'm thinking about on the other side of, you know, you think about which one of these candidates wins. makes you think about sectors
like biotech, what's going to happen to repatriation of dividends. talked about that once. companies like apple, favored, 10% tax versus 40%. thinking maybe go overagt on biotech because i think there's -- >> worried about how, the politics, you should be worried about biotech. i'm long biotech but parties both agree on health care. riskier than the brokerage -- >> true, but i would like two back winds. the political environment good for me on that sector. >> right. >> but i want to see a chance for snob get a return north of 6% on assets, which is where you're getting -- imagine goldman sachs. you told me a decade ago they'd make 6%, 7% on assets, i would say not even a chance in hell. >> a good debate as to rhetoric versus reality. what josh is getting to. josh's long made the case sitting here, more on -- rhetoric, more so than reality. >> absolutely. >> what about the idea there's just too much reliance on the
fed, period. that if the u.s. economy gets any kind of continued sort of moment momentum, another good jobs report, rates will go up on their own? and therein good for the banks. >> institutions holding up to 30% cash, it's stunning. talked about this everybody quarter. i keep going out to my 19 institutions how much cash you put to work? the answer, none. nos p not putting it to work like in used to. never seen more cash on the sidelines in my life. >> more worried about politics and uncertainty with the direction of the economy for the political election. >> talking about -- >> talking smaller institutions managing endowments. those guys do not have quarterly performance metrix to worry about. talking the next ten years. how come you're not putting all this cash to work. they're saying, why? i don't have to perform next quarter and worried like crazy we're going to have a massive
correction. >> manifested in hedge fund exposures, which are very, very low. as i talk to hedge fund managers on personal assets, nobody knows where to make money. >> but isn't this another way to look at it. when that comes back into the market we're going to get a heck of a run, because we're not talking about small amounts of dollars. these are billions. >> is it a reasonable argument, take the next step say ultimately we don't get a financial crisis this year it comes back to the market? why wouldn't it be looking at a goldman, a jpmorgan, a wells fargo? very well managed companies. >> you need 50 bips to make it work. 50 bips. two hikes, september, december. if we get there, so right. another 10% on investments. >> best place to make money, not in equities public, long duration vehicles investing in the void that's been created by regulation. by dodd/frank. that's where the money's being made. that's where the margins are the
fae fattest, fewest dollars chasing and valuations lowest. where you make -- >> we have the perfect segue. if not the financials, which sectors do the street's top strategists think are best set to outperform? don chu crunched data and he is at the wall. hey, dom. >> talk about the biggest sector. two others make up the top three. look at it overall, sentiment on wall street now among strategists is tilting towards the more cyclical plays. say just to point this out here, look at technology overall. asked analysts on wall street what they thought about overweights and underweights, technology, generally speaking, a handful, merrill lynch, all feel technology is overweight in this country environment. health care. interesting only because some say it's defensive. biotech side, perhaps more market volatility, a little more
cyclical. health care, goldman sachs, ubs, morgan stanley feel health care is a notable overweight there. the underweights. look at this one here, because materials. we know the commodity side of things not at robust these days, a decent run as of late. see if it stays. boa, morgan stanley, deutsche, underweights on materials. consumer staples. one of the betters earnings growers beating estimates and whatnot. still though, citi, ubs, consumer staples underweight, maybe valuations have something to do with it. look at the way strategies line up, about a lot of bigger sectors. if it really is tech and health care leading the way higher to be bullish for the market, they carry a lot of weight. right? >> picking winners, lately. right? i look at these calls and think, herd mentality. all firms behind the exact same picks. is this the best places to be?
>> even companies themselves telling you that as far as materials. look at the offering in u.s. steel. x. you saw they upped it from roughly 17 million shares to almost 19 million shares, $23 a share after a furious run. they're taken some cash, judge. in other words, looking at it saying we think this is a great time for us to raise cash. i think a lot of the managers are looking at these stocks and the material space the same way and obviously the people -- >> relative value. because you think about the way people allocate money. institutionally. they're looking for cheap assets. not in the stub sectors. anything related to staples, telecom, utility, bond-like equities, worked well. valuations stretched. in the case of utilities, a 19 multiple. never seen in history. of course they're going to these scenario. >> take tech. perfect place to have the conversation. given where the nasdaq is. tech, highest levels in 16
years. nasdaq hits new intraday high yesterday. >> you don't have to go fang for fe tech. microsoft, great trade. great return of capital. own the old dinosaurs and still be a participant in a rotation into the tech sector, and have less down side risk than owning a zillion pe netflix. i mean, that thing broke its 50-day average. >> stocks, by the way, the fangs that you speak of, have staged a comeback. they've been incredibly strong over the last -- month if not more. >> the big gray boxmakers that couldn't get a rest over the last couple years. now all of a sudden working, breaking 10 and 11-year highs because they offer return of capital. their growth at a reasonable price valuations and they're companies left behind as everyone's paid attention to netflix and facebook and on and on. so, you have semis doing well pup have some of the software companies that don't get a lot
of attention doing well and they're not all 100 times earnings. >> and companies like rackspace, essentially model, its broken. everything going to the cloud, yet a purported bid. by far, my largest weighting, allergan, health care grows, guess what? in every cycle, whether a recession, or whether the economy's booming. continue to grow and will grow. >> talk about political risk. i mean, you have strong thoughts on political risk to financials but not health care? >> no, no. i agree. the thing is, you can't stop the tide of health care spending, because i don't care whether you rekriscind obama care or don't. i love that investment team. very long health care have been through all the volatility. i'm staying long pap 20% allocation for me at a sector. that's max. most i can own in those names.
thinking what happens when you have a big event? like, and i look at the political thing, you know, staying agnostic to one party or the other, but i think a 50/50 chance. it's not -- it's not -- i don't assume hillary gets elected. i actually think -- a story for you. i went to hiyannis and landed tn minutes after trump got there. asking those in the airport, what are you going to do? every one voting for him. working 9:00 to 5:00, they've made up their minds. i thought, gee, what about all the stuff he's saying? they don't give a, they don't give a hoot. >> the electoral math doesn't work if you can't take pennsylvania. >> maybe. to assume he won't get elected -- >> fueling up democrats planes for 50 years?
>> anyways, i talked to somebody there that night, gave to the candidate. wife went. husband didn't. he didn't want to be photographed with trump but he's giving dough to him and voting. he won't tell anybody he's doing it. it's going to be the most interesting election. a stealth number out there. like brexit. i don't think these polls mean anything until we get to october and then we talk about political risk. i want to buy sectors either hillary, doesn't kill me with her rhetoric, maybe josh is right, only rhetoric, but i'm liking a theme of a lower corporate tax rate, repatriation, elimination of estate tax. i prefer that platform. >> what do you think about this. >> last point. >> you have the election. a one day, one week, two week eve event. congress at odds, what will probably happen, at least two years. >> she wins, by the current margin which i don't suggest is what's going to happen, not only does she win the white house but they actually take the senate.
and do serious damage in the house. so if it tightens, which i think is reasonable to expect it to tighten, that's a different story, as it currently stands right now the political risk is a democratic landslide. >> we haven't talked a lot about it. there's ramifications to a landside. >> for either party. >> yeah. the closer we get, scott we're going to talk about this. >> we are. talk about it more later today in this show. >> is that a promise? >> yeah. you know why? a lot more coming up on the "halftime report." >> all right. >> announcer: an earnings beat. a strong showing at the box office, and a move into streaming. is the magic back for disney? plus, positive reviews for yelp on the street today with multiple upgrades. but are they too bullish? we'll debate. and -- the shark will see you now. kevin o'leary is taking your twit e questiter questions live
back on the "halftime report" after starting the day in the red, there's a look at shares of disney, they've turned around following an earnings beat. company announcing an over the top direct streaming service and major league baseball's bamtech. stock down. had your opportunity, at least maybe an opportunity to get into the stock like you said you were looking for. did you do it or not? >> no.
in and out of the name. i'll get back into it. the takeaway from the quarter is disney is fine. don't have the cable bundle figured out yet. doing experimentation. doing things with directv, with some of the mobile companies that are creating next generation bundles and maintaining relationships with the incumbent cable companies as well as making acquisitions in streaming companies and ultimately you either think that disney will break with 60 years of tradition and totally blow it, or you'll realize that every five years there's a new technology delivery mechanism, but at the end of the day, they have the content and figure out a way to make money from delivering it appropriately. so if you believe the latter case, which i do, then you can get past that issue and then look at all of the other parts of the business that are firing on all krillened e ecylinders. revenue up, film revenue up, parks doing well, merchandise doll well and ultimately will get this part right and people willing to sit through it buy it
at a 20% discount to its 52-week high will be rewarded. >> what about the idea, system stewart, pulitzer prize winner put for this thought on "squawk box" this morning, the conversation there, days of disney generating a blockbuster growth in this highly profitable media arm, unit, whatever you want to call it, espn, are over? >> they always say that. >> over. >> false premise. false premise. going to dynamic. >> not saying it's dying, but the kind of growth and d deliverable giving to the bottom line, not going to be seen again. >> wait until you see what dynamic pricing can do for these guys, judge. same sort of thing for major league baseball. look how people can move prices on attractive events. that is what disney is talking about. they talked about it on the conference call this morning. dynamic pricing for the online delivery. that's going to be huge for them. parks were up 6%. films up 40% year over year
numbers. i think that -- you know, with marvel and with lucas -- >> betting on a studio is difficult. >> they've got two of the best, though. >> one or two ways this resolves itself. >> three of the best. >> remember the calls, ml inherited ge at $60 a share? one of his first pitches to boston. i was in the audience. i remember the very first time and analyst got up, putnam or fidelity and said, jeff, when are you going to take the financial services out of this mix because it's a black box? a decade later he did it. >> finally. >> when the stock -- >> because it was -- >> is this same inflection point for iger, when are you going to take espn, split it out of the rest of the model? let shareholders decide? he is obviously with yesterday's call decided he's not going that way and signaling to the streak. >> i don't think he should. >> a debate that will start to happen. i will say this, though. after listening to him yesterday and looking a the calls data, i
personally went into the stock today, which i haven't done in a long time. >> right. >> that doesn't mean ousa is doing it. i like what i heard from him. the guts to go over the top and start to take espn revenue with dynamic pricing, with bundling, whatever it is. he signals he give as damn about that and is holding it together. that doesn't mean everybody else is on side. a human cry to take espn out into a separate hold. >> i don't agree. too many synergies with espn. whether in the parks or abc. marketing. you spread the cost of buying the product, buying baseball, buying of the sports across multiple distribution channels? i don't really see that ever happening. espn, the growth, the business of content to some degree and the distribution has been commoditized. you won't see the growth you've seen in the past. >> right. >> so i disagree with you on that. >> disney, pro growth or low growth? >> lower growth for espn.
>> it's a utility. a median utilities? >> not quite. still a unique property, but now the power is gone -- >> but wait a minute. to john's point if they can meter, charge you for the amount you're using it or can say, all right, ncaa championship, the big one. guess what? it's $2 extra this month. whatever the formula is. >> josh, when you unbundle, how many households are there where it's included in your cable bundle? like one of my daughters who doesn't care about sports. you know? that's not going to take it. >> that's the past. >> not the past. current. no, she still gets it. doesn't want it. >> but they're not talking about what the consumer's accustomed to now. thinking ten years plus in the future and my children who are in their -- under 10, are going to have a different attitude than i might have. >> but the earnings miles now are not ten years. >> haven't even addressed the issue of succession, a large reason sounds like you bought
the stock today is -- >> no, no. what i heard yesterday is, he's in for at least 36 more monthswhat i heard. that's me listening to him on the question of succession, getting every day he gets iran viewed. he likes his job, pretty good at it. board likes him, i smell 36, enough for me to trade higher. what i want. coming up, lights dim for sun power today. ralph lauren soaring on earnings beat and new at noon, one year since china stunned global markets by devaluing its currency. now we have details about what the country could do this year, and if other drastic moves are in the cards. where we explore. protecting biodiversity. everywhere we work. defeating malaria. improving energy efficiency. developing more clean burning natural gas. my job? my job at exxonmobil? turning algae into biofuels. reducing energy poverty in the developing world. making cars go further with less. fueling the global economy.
time for the trader blitz. five trades on five stocks making news today. michael kors, not doing much, though beat on the top and bottom line. comp stores down. >> fashion. fashion. you want volatility in your portfolio, buy some fashion. the way i look at it. nobody has been able to guess which five to own at any one time for two quarters in a row. i can't believe how volatile the sector's become. retail risk, fashion risk.
it's got technology risk now. i mean, like -- i'm not loving the sector at all. >> doc, maybe ralph is the place to go? >> oh, my gosh. >> surge? >> absolutely. earnings blowout as far as the bottom line number. they crushed it. and guidance was strong, too. stock opened and just has continued to trade up throughout the day, judge. up almost 11% right now. >> steve weiss, southwest airlines, current quarter revenue fall more than expected. stock's down nearly 2%. >> you want technology risk, kevin, look at airlines. delta yesterday. southwest talking about their quarter, because some technology glitch. i think ignore all that. i still like -- >> three days' worth of pain bow of that glitch from delta. >> you'll feel it in the earnings. these companies, near monopolies, issues with delta, passengers, you say, had nowhere else to go. i still like them. still think the models are in great shape. i own american. nopt selling. >> wendy's, josh?
down a little more than 1%? >> putting in a hammer. look at the daily candle. probably resolves in better shape than it looked this morning. a well-managed company, smart investors behind it in a tough industry. could kevin's point on fashion, the burger wars, every quarter someone's doing better with a different promotion, and wendy's is fighting that war. not an interesting stock pap good company, but range-bound since 2014. >> doc, look out below. sun power down 30%. >> the list of companies cutting price targets, judge, some as much as 50% on the price target. this was just a horrific quarter. ceo cuts his salary to one. a lot say over paid that. stock's down to lowest level since 2013 rand going land goin >> overpaid at a buck? >> hard. a 30% loss in the stock, perhaps
not. scotty, what else is happening at this hour. the justice department and baltimore police agreeing to negotiate reforms that can be enfoerpsed by the courts. this following a scathing report criticizing officers for using excessive force and routinely discriminating against blacks. the report the culmination of a yea year-long investigation. >> these violations deeply eroded the trust between the police and the commune its serves. trust that is essential to effective policing as well as to officer and public safety. >> wikileaks is offering a $20,000 reward for information into the killing of a democratic national committee staffer. seth rich who worked on voter outreach was shot twice in the back a block away from his d.c. home last month. following his death, con speerpspeerps conspiracy theories surfaced on the internet. reducing the amount of two air pollutants could save thousands of american lives each
year. they used a commuter model to weigh health benefits. and it's that time of year again. the girl scouts are offering up new cookies. they'll make two versions of the new s'mores variety beginning in 2017. next year marks the scentennial for girl scout cookie sales. big in our office. scott, back to you. >> thin mints. >> you got it. >> samoas. >> the best! >> these look all right. the s'mores. >> we'll know next year. i'm sure on the list and we can buy them. >> around here i'm sure. >> i could take those thin mints down by the sleeve. >> no kidding! a head start out of the centennial. >> competition in the newsroom on that one. up next, mr. wonderful taking your questions. tweet us @halftimereport. use the #askkevin. first a look at the s&p heat sector map. staples tell re comes leading the way.
s&p down 5. back on the "halftime report" right after this. announcer: "halftime report" with scott wapner is "the" place for market-moving interviews. >> you don't call a company a sewer because the company made a mistake. >> announcer: real money -- >> we are short both tesla and solar city. >> announcer: -- real debates. >> people think that globalization has hurt businesses. it's not. it is technology that's hurt businesses. >> competition is a good thing. i don't want to go back to a single marketplace. >> announcer: the most profitable hour of the trading day. >> i love this show! all i do is get to tweet about this show! i'm on the show. this is like the greatest momenten my life! >> announcer: the "halftime report." weekdays at noon eastern. or stop to find a bathroom? cialis for daily use, is the only daily tablet approved to treat erectile dysfunction so you can be ready anytime the moment is right. plus cialis treats the frustrating urinary symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently, day or night. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex.
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all right. resident shark kevin o'leary gets asked a lot of questions on investing on twitter when he appears on the "halftime report." today we would like to answer some of those live on the air. chris henderson asks do you use futures to hedge portfolio risk? >> i do in two ways. all my international positions which in europe and asia are different currencies, take europe, for example. swiss francs, you'euros, britis pounds. i hedge those 50% using currency forwards. i've taken out the market
capitalization of each of those markets and said look what happened with the british pound. lost 4% in one evening. i was 50% hedged. trying to mute that risk. one way i do it, and look at overall domestic portfolio and by puts on the s&p. big position. thinking to myself, these are great markets. i like to be an optimist, but i also want a little downside protection. you know? learned from my buddy beside me. buy a little protection. >> doc, strategy sound good to you? >> oh, yeah. anytime you can be in an asset and truncate the risk in that asset, you should do that. >> they're cheap. >> we do it with automobiles, with homes. i wouldn't you do it with a big asset, in some cases even bigger. >> when you see, like, the vix trading below 12 like it has and rarely does, we've seen six times over the last month, do you increase your protection? or your protection is constant and lower it? >> i keep adding to it, because
like you, looking at it in amazement having doing this for 160 years, i'm a vampire. >> 161. >> it shocks me we are assuming such perfection to the end of the year. >> right. >> anyways, i'm willing to lose on these, but i like -- basically hedged about 30% of the position. >> moving to the next one. o'leili's milk shakes. what will it take for you to get back into apple? >> i need to see services hit 25% of revenue, and right now it's about 9% or 10%. i am -- we have this debate about apple every time we're together. this is a consumer electronics company. i don't care what anybody says, yet the whole story about apple is it's different because of an ecosphere you'll sell services on. there's evidence on the, you know, what's happened with this pokemon thing. they're booking huge numbers through there, and that's the kind of thing i like to see. now, is that sustainable? i don't know. show me a trend that gets me
from 10% to 25% on services and i'd be long apple again. then you have proven to me the ecosphere is worth something i can't get in a samsung or can't get buying toasters. because to me the iphone 7 is a toaster. >> what if you're paying up 20% in price by the time you get that evidence? >> a good point, josh. why you're a long now on apple, i assume? betting they're going to solve that problem. show it to me in the next quarter maybe i'll pay up at 10%. show me something. right now it's a toaster company. >> asks, you work hard to stay on top of your game. how do you avoid burnout and what do you do to recharge? >> i ride the bike. used to play squash. my back's killing me. to be honest. ride the bike 45 minutes. watch you in the morning and read bond reports from europe and basically try to zone out that i do half an hour of yoga and i'm ready to play again, ready to go to battle. to come here. got to do a little exercise in the morning. i get up at 5:30.
>> bond guys mow more than equities. making nothing on bonds, and going up forever in equities. that's a problem. worries me on the bike every day. >> smart guys for sure. coming up, reviews are in for yelp and the street bullish. a number of upgrade. do you get in after the big earnings beat? stock up 14%. first, tyler mathisen, what's coming up on "power lunch." >> do the yoga, best way to get focused. coming up top of the hour on "power lunch," burgers and handbags, what they say about the health of the american consumer. great rotation, investors piling money into tech. the stocks that should be on your buy list and the ceo of intrexon, his plan to fight the zika virus. "halftime" will be back, after this.
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from rochester to the hudson valley, from albany to utica, creative business incentives, infrastructure investment, university partnerships, and the lowest taxes in decades are creating a stronger economy and the right environment in new york state for business to thrive. let us help grow your company's tomorrow- today at business.ny.gov "halftime report." oil is sliding after this morning's inventory numbers, jackie deangelis know becauses she's at the nymex. >> good afternoon, scott. after the inventory report we've seen a reversal. scott nation looked bullish on its face. why did we turn around? >> actually saw a big build of stockpiles. expecting a draw. now down almost 2% below $42. i think the only thing keeping the market above $40 a barrel is
the fact we're worried about venezuela and libya. the place where is we have outages now. they were to come back online we'd be well below $40. >> all right. session lows today under $42 a barrel. bob, get your take. rbc second shout-out to them, this is a bear trap. do you agree or think we're going higher, too? >> no. i do agree with that and agree we scott, but this week is likely to be an up week, although not by much. settled at $41.98. so $42, $42.05 enough to call it an up week obviously. i'm looking for refinery through putt pu puts to slow down. as long as we're seeing draws at the peak of the summer driving season now, you'll see crude pull out into refineries. as we tall ofall off on the sum driving demand, not see it pick up on global demand. >> watching the price closely.
meantime, for more on the futures market head to the"fu" there. and now seema mody with new analysis on what the country could do next. >> earlier this year a growing belief among investors and some hedge funds china would continue to weaken currency and embark on a one-off evaluation to kickstart growth and make their chinese goods more competitive overseas. we've seen a gradual depreciation, analysts massively scaled back expectations of a one-off devaluation. here's why. look at the language of the chinese leadership of late, shifting policy direction more focused on stabilization, trying to play the long-end game. speaking to some beijing experts, china, their focus,
ensure they don't cause global market volatility. ims, fdr inclusion in the fall and not going to get or instill market confidence shocking investors with another one-off devaluation. the big wild card in all this, scott, if china's economy decelerates as a rapid pace, you could see the short positions build up in the chinese and we know it has been a popular trade amongst some well-respected investors induding david tepper and kyle bass among others. >> thoughts? weiss? >> such a large outflow of capital. $100 billion a month. saw it go from $4 trillion down to $2.7 trillion. >> just about a year ago? >> yeah, and into this year. >> our markets fell out of bed. >> and feshlly believed also. the average market devalued currently by 32% and theirs down 7%. you saw crowded trade and they didn't do it. why? because it's china and they can basically put out whatever numbers they want.
miraculo miraculously, trickled down to nothing. like every other central banker got into the party. seen ten year come down to 2.7% from over 3%. buying and easing there. basically under the penalty of death, do not take capital out of the country anymore. a big deterrent. right now, i would say that ultimately, it will come down. trying to be good neighbors but could care less about these stabilized global economy. it's not what they think about. >> i think they're trying to elevate their market in economic status going forward. seems to be a big priority for the chinese leadership especially ahead of big elections coming up in 2017. >> yeah. i don't disagree with that. but i'm not so sure they're troop elections. >> all right. last word. seema, thanks. >> thank. coming up, yesterday carl icahn joined us exclusively to discuss why he supports donald trump's economic plan. kevin o'leary's take, next. plus, a josh favorite.
woman snoring take the roar out of snore. yet another innovation only at a sleep number store. all right. republican presidential nominee donald trump unveiling his economic plan earlier this week. and yesterday activist investor carl icahn and big trump supporter called into "halftime report" to weigh in on that plan saying he agrees with trump's take on the u.s. economy.
here's what he said. >> we have a massive problem, and donald is addressing it. the democrats are not. donald gave a speech that was to my mind right on about it. and if he sticks with that economic theme, he should definitely win hands down because i don't know why you wouldn't vote for him. >> i just want to get sort of your take. part of the issue is one thing icahn says if he sticks with that economic theme, it's been difficult for trump to stay on message. >> here's my take, i'm canadian and switzerland, i can't vote. i moved to boston in the early '90s. my kids, they were born there, they have a stake. i took the opportunity to make the markets because we don't have the same america today. i listen to icahn and i look at the companies i own today, 32 private ones in this country and they tell me they are buried in regulation. they don't have incentive to
hire employees because they have to pay lawyers. so when icahn talks about this and the archie bunker worker, it speaks to the constituency where most of our job growth goes, small cap companies. he says a lot of crazy stuff, my sense is if what's going on out there he could deliver a growth strategy which would include a 15% small business tax. that rings with every one of my business owners. they're voting for him, i'm sorry. they're all voting for him on that one. repatriation is good for some companies. every farmer wants to see the estate tax repealed. it's so unfair to work your whole life on a piece of land and have 55% of it stolen from you after you die, why? being taxed a second time. every farmer will vote for that. these are plans that are going to get votes and you can criticize until the cows come home, but if he stays on message here, he will stay within
statistical error of being 50/50 chance of being president. that's my view. frankly, i would like to see some of those things instituted. because if we're going o get eight more years of what i've seen happen to my small businesses, no thanks. and i'm switzerland. >> someone who's not switzerland. >> i'm not, but i'm going to be neutral in this conversation. >> all right. >> says a thousand words right there. >> wait, hold on, how many farmers are you suggesting subject to the estate tax? >> anybody that has assets. >> 1,200 families. >> if you have $5 million with a land which is pretty well any farm these days if you own over 100 acres, yourng going to be subject to a lot of estate tax. tell me why that's fair? >> these are commercial farming corporations. these are not a farmer and his wife paying -- >> you're outside of champagne, somewhere in illinois, and you're going to have to pay 55% of anything north of $5 million just because your dad died. >> but that's not ultimately how
it works out. you're talking about people with leaving estate greater than $5 million. >> it's emotional decision. do you think estate tax is fair? i don't think it's fair. >> do you think the president has the ability to wipe out the estate tax? i'm not saying i'm for the estate tax by the way. >> i'm saying the last administration spent all political capital on health care. that was obama's decision and he drove a process through. the next administration, whether it's hillary or donald is going to have to decide. the tax code is so screwed up in this country. all of you agree on that. you have to. >> yep. >> i actually pay it. and it's screwed up. it's not competitive. >> everyone agrees. there's never been a candidate running for office in 30 years that hasn't said the tax situation is screwed up. >> we have to get competitive with europe. >> canada is cheaper and that place is socialist country. corporate tax is cheaper there. does that make sense? >> good news is that mr. trump himself will be on "squawk box" tomorrow morning. i'll be there as well. look forward to that 7:00 a.m. eastern time.
the republican presidential candidate donald trump on "squawk," do not miss it. coming up, three hours left to trade today, we're looking ahead to earnings, shake shack is there, alibaba, macy's as well. "halftime report" back after this. hey gary, what'd you got here? this bad boy is a mobile trading desk so that i can take my trading platform wherever i go. you know that thinkorswim seamlessly syncs across all your devices, right? oh, so my custom studies will go with me? anywhere you want to go! the market's hot! sync your platform on any device with thinkorswim. only at td ameritrade
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and phelps as in michael both take gold. raymond james goes to outperform as well. axiom they go to buy. >> deutsche bank -- >> does najarian capital go to buy? >> luckily we were. there was some very strong buying in this name weeks ago, judge. if you look at my disclosures, i've been long it for those weeks. our clients are long it. and it's a great day. we are taking profits. i'm not going to lie to you. we took some profits today, but we will continue to hold long positions in the name because of the positive news we got. >> look, report came out and said outperform, it's not a strong buy, i don't know what the difference is but they're looking at to justify their price target of 20 times ebitda. >> $45 price target. >> right. and to justify it they're seeing 40% ebitda growth for as far as the eye can see. if that happens, that's not going to happen. so if it's based upon that, i'm not a buyer. i just don't see those kind of
valuations finding a place in my portfolio based on those metrics. momentum can't continue, but a lot of short covering as we often seen in this market. >> mizuho goes to 40. rbc goes to 48. >> i will say this i used to work with the cfo, he's excellent. he knows what he's doing. he knows how to massage the street and long experienced in this type of company. so he can keep going for a little while. >> any stock that can move 14% on a single -- let's give it three analyst recommendations in a single trading session, let's call it four minutes, is not an investment. it's a speculation. because the next time somebody changes their mind, it's going down 14%. you like that kind of volatility? not moi. no thanks. >> french canadian. >> let's do shake shack in 20 seconds, josh. >> it's good. they beat earnings last time, but it didn't help. stock sold off anyway because they gave slightly lower guidance for the full year.
but then it recovered and then some. it's been a home run stock all summer. i'm long the name. i've got a small position. i have no idea what the earnings tonight will be. i do think that there is a five to ten-year runway for this to become a much bigger company. >> thank you. >> thank you. >> power starts now. dwraeed, shake shack is good. i'm tyler mathisen everybody. speaking of shake shack and the like, burgers and bags topping the "power lunch" menu today. what these two things say about you, the american consumer. a solar power disaster du jour. the one stock that is cratering to earth at this hour. and manmade mosquitos, how one company is betting on a zika fix with genetically engineered bugs. "power lunch" starts right now. and welcome to "power lunch." i'm melissa lee. three hours left in the trading