tv Worldwide Exchange CNBC August 26, 2016 5:00am-6:01am EDT
good morning. fed in focus. wall street getting ready to par issue every single word out of janet yellen's mouth today. officials look for direction gathering in jackson hole. i spy ha headache. privilege and paranoia. hillary clinton delivers her most scathing critique of donald trump as the fight for the white house gets personal. it's friday, august 26, 2016 and "world wide exchange" begins right now.
>> good morning. happy friday. welcome to cnbc. i'm sara eisen with don choo. been in all week. >> it's been great to be here. filling in for wilfred frost. he'll be back next week. >> it is new music friday. kicking your day off with brand new brittany spears. >> sounds the same. >> she can pump me up though. >> more brittany news later in the show. let's check in on global markets. u.s. futures another mini selloff yesterday. importantly, the nasdaq's first back to bake daily decline in two months. we're flat this morning. not a lot of risk taking going on ahead of the big janet yellen speech. nasdaq futures under a tiny bit of pressure here. health care has been a big story. that has dragged down the embassies. that has had a rough couple of
day is. and the worst week for bio tech and health care. as for the ten-year treasury note yield, we hover around 1.55 level. will janet yellen cause higher yields is the big question. if she talks up the strength in the federal economy. the need to raise interest rates this years. any clues on that. >> of course it's not just the ten-year. we show you the ten-year because it's a benchmark number. we're going to watch aacross. the two year. especially because of the shorter rate side of things. if it seems like it's been a blur, it is monday through friday today. every time we checked that ten-year note yield it's been 1.55 or 1.56. >> interesting it's not moving as we pointed out on economic data. we'll get more revision to second quarter gdp this morning. everybody is wondering what
third quarter gdp did. second quarter is 1% region. will we rebound to 3% growth in the third quarter. that's what the atlanta fed has us tracking at now. that would be positive. look for clues in that gdp report at 8:30 where we go from here. >> a lot of people pinning the u.s. picture in hopes for the second half of the year. we'll take a look at those pictures later on. let's check out european equities. maybe at least following a little bit of sentiment that's going on right now. we're talking about losses across most of the major markets in europe, but not massive losses. the dax in germany off 1 quarter of a percent. the ftse and the uk flat we're going to call it. very marginally. >> after better data continued. >> right. exactly. they got a look at their economic health with their gdp numbers. ftse mib in through down.5%.
spain off. sit read. if you're watching you can see that. if you're listening we are lower, but only fractionally. let's talk about the overnight session in asia as well. a mixed picture. the nikkei in japan down over a percent this time around. 105 points shaved off. the shanghai comp pretty much flat. >> just if yourta'retai tallyin all up. add it all up and still not a full percent. >> as for the broader markets. oil has been a story. under a bit of selling pressure after a strong week. wti still sitting above $47 a barrel. down almost half a percent this morning. brent is down a 1%. nat gas at multiweek high
yesterday. giving a little back in mornings. about a percent. >> as for the u.s. dollar ahead of janet yellen and jackson hole, we've seen a softer dollar across the board. starting with the euro in the middle there. 1.1286 stronger again. the pound stronger after better consumer conferred data continues to point to strength post-brexit vote in somewhat of a surprise for the uk. dollar weaker against the japanese yen. that's stronger yen of course focus all week long remain above the technically important 100 level. as for gold which is important to watch, ahead of yellen: there has been selling of gold this week. minors have gotten hit. >> you think you would be catching a bit this morning. >> and here we are on the back of the stronger dollar. to the tune of .30%. >> 1328 last trade for gold. moving on, janet yellen
could command the bulk and i say that -- of course it will. the bulk of the market's attention today. few other items of note on the agenda leading up to the main event. first of all, we're going to get the second revision of q2 gdp. growth is forecast to be slightly lower to 1.1%. also look out for july sbreshl trade numbers. as for the earnings side of things, big lots the discount retailer reports before the opening bell. it's the only very large one we're watching for because it fits the theme of the consumer data we've been looking at for the most of the week. >> another mixed picture. >> exactly. it seems like the data at least from the corporation side of things on the earnings front maybe not quite as clear or pointing to at least as positive a story. >> it's really company specific. it's industry specific and it's
income bracket specific. >> right. >> even though tiffany shot up yesterday, it wasn't like the sales rebounded. word wi worldwide they were pretty weak. >> the middle to low end of the jewelry market. >> fed chair janet yellen steps up to the microphone at the annual central bank forum in jackson hole hosted by the kansas city fed 10:00 a.m. eastern time. any hunts of a timetable for the interest rate hike. some may be ready to act as soon as next month. appearing on cnbc closing bell, allines says yellen is in a tough spot right now. listen. >> some central bankers have down played jackson hole. others like bernanke use it to signal policy changes. her inclination is to down play jackson hole, but she's being pushed to make a major policy statement. i don't think we're going to get that. she's being pushed very hard by
the market base to do so. >> this directionless trading. following the speech in jackson hole, the interpretation comes from her number two. sits down with the stanley fisher. that's squawk alley today. >> corporate news, senators are turning up the heat on mylan. the drug company announcing yesterday it will reduce the out-of-pocket cost of the emergency epipen allergy injection for some of the patients following a wave of criticism. this comes as the price of the drug has increased nearly 500% over the past few years. lawmakers aren't satisfied. chuck grassley appeared on closing bell and said the savings card is not enough. and shared his solution and theory for why mylan decided to increase prices for the epipen in the first place. >> draw down the price and we want to know whether that
process can be speeded up to get competition to market. because i think one of the reasons milan had the guts to move this price up so rapidly is because they do have a monopoly and about 40% of their client el is medicaid. they can cheat the taxpayers as much as they cheating individual families. >> mylan this week the shares of that company down 12%. a little over that at this point. mylan certainly a lightning rod of a company. both politically and economically and market wise anything else in this week's trading. >> i talked about this story on msnbc yesterday. it gives you a sense of how much outrage there is for this price hike. the optics are not good. her salary skyrockets. the tax inversion to move to the netherlands.
the fact she is a democratic senator's daughter. it goes on and on and on. and people look at this very common, very necessary drug for their children that they have to buy at the back to school season. >> what resinates with me is this idea that there are so many people out there where an epipen is a necessity. >> this is the only optioning. >> i know many of my friends all have kids who needs these. i luckily don't have a food allergy, but i can only imagine what it's like to be a parent and deal with these issues as well. you know the software update reminders on your iphone you're constantly avoiding holding off could cost you. apple strongly advising to download a new patch for ios devices following a recent hack attempt. landon dowdy joins us with more. >> apple issuing a security update. following a recent hack attempt
in the middle east. the rare software was discovered when cyber thieves used it to target the iphone of a prominent activist. researchers say he received a text messages inviting him to click on a web link. that i have discovered the link would allow hackers to remotely take over his phone, use the camera and microphone to snoop on him and track information from apps. researchers say they alerted apple a week and a half ago and the company quickly developed a fix. the tech giant advising customers to download the latest version of ios for security protection and researchers say the spy ware may have been made an bi an israeli company. nso says it cannot confirm any information in this specific case. as you mentioned. something we get on our phones all the time. you're constantly deleting it or
putting it off. this may be worth the update. >> update your phone. got it. thank you. moving on to stocks to watch. game stop second quarter revenue missed analyst forecast on weak sales of video games themselves. t the retailer siting push of new videos. getting consumers to buy products on the consoles instead of in stores. see the shares off 8%. trading auto desk is raiding full year guidance following better than expected results. maker of design and engineering software seeing a surge in s subscripti subscriptions. those shares up 3.5% in early trading. ulta reporting outlook. those projections are just slightly short of analyst's expectations. that stock has been on a nice run.
25% in three months. down 1 percent 25 in the early hours trade. >> nice looking chart. >> a texas jury has found general motors ignition switch has been linked to 400 injuries and death was not to blaem for a fatal crash in 2011. judge determined the driver in the crash was reckless and at fault for that accident. the auto maker paid $2 billion in criminal and civil penalties incomes with the faulty ignition switches. volkswagen. the german auto maker will pay to kor dealer losses. this comes in the wake of the company admitting it cheated on diesel tests. the new settlement will cover 650 u.s. dealers. most are due to a drop in sales following the emissions scandal. certainly a large story to follow there. still going. and coming up on the show,
choppy trading overseas. the world waits for janet yellen to speak at 10:00 a.m. eastern time. a live report from london and singapore coming next. stay tuned. you're watching and listening to cnbc first in business, worldwide. ooo th choose effesglidefride to s. chse ke-lovingunderarm-ca, bikiniine-aring. fe our aduswirl and flexball, ps thve dip anvot. chse tsmoouswirl and flexball, angoet iars. go get it. .cch gilman used his shew cdird fr bank of ame toarn 1%h evywreevery ti at pces thbaing cages. ♪ [ croweers ]
if your watching you can see a mixed picture behind me. it really doesn't tell the story. we're flat across the board. dow jones futures down just a point. 18446 is the basis. not much movement there. is trevor ploufs&p up wnt 25%. nasdaq down 1.5 point. janet yellen is going to happen in the jackson hole. a lot of that in a holding pattern. let's that i cake a look at oil ice brent $49.15. that's down by a full percentage point here as well in gasoline prices you can see off 1% as well. let's turn to the global markets. louisa bojesen covering the early action for european trade for us. let's start with the close in asia. important economic data to get to and shri.
good morning, guys. >> top of the morning, sara. ler let's start with japan and the inflation data continue to stress we admire in the deflationry environment in japan. 2% inflation target looks increasingly elusive. it's like the play, waiting for gado. that does put pressure on the bank of japan. we are watching dollar yen. if we remain in these kind of regions around the century mark, possibly lower, that could cross the mind of the boj. we are spinni inning wheels her until we get charity from janet yellen. next week will be interesting. we do have a lot of regional data to get through. including the latest gdp data from india. that where we stand. i'm going to hand off to louisa bojesen in london. >> all waiting for the knotting hill carnival to kick off. we are waiting on the fed this
afternoon. by and large we're seeing very flat trade taking place in europe. the stock 600 reflecting that. starting a couple of points lower. as the indications were, we're just hanging on to a little bit of selling. when it comes to main equity markets, most trading in negative territory. the ftse on the week down half a%. the dax off half a percent. the cac off just a hair. the ftse mib seeing a bit of a rally coming into the financial stocks in italy that has had otherwise been so down. when it comes to the sectors out there. draw your attention to the pharmaceutical health care sector. off just a half a percent in trade after the repositioning in europe. we're not seeing in huge moves following from the mylan case state side, but a lot of people will be looking closer at that sector to see whether were looking at changes to how drugs are priced in the future.
auto a little higher. basic resources up 1%. leading the gainers board, media. shi of 1% at the moment. mixed market. flat. waiting on the fed of course. >> and the carnival. have fun. >> hope the weather holds up. louisa bojesen. thank you. up next t war of words. the name calling on the campaign trail getting more personal. we'll have the details straight ahead. >> as if it couldn't get more personal. >> as we head to break, here's national whether forecast, jen carfagno. >> little humidity out there. we have a front coming through. not going to make a big different in temperature. it will youer out the humidity a bit. we're watching for more showers and possible storms across the middle of the country. today zone for possible we've been monitoring the trop i think so. there is a tropical wave we're keeping an eye on. regardless of what happens with that, we've got the chance for
showers and storms in florida today and through the weekend. not necessarily tropical related. just a lot of thunderstorms in the forecast. in the west we continue to be very hot. seattle hitting the 90s. record highs fell yesterday and they will again today. that's your coast to coast forecast. i'm jen carfagno for the weather channel. "world wide exchange" continues after this. cay's en used the smelof lingeng garbage
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exchange." good morning. let's get you up to speed on the marketaction. adding points to the u.s. futures board. dow up 21. nasdaq up # 4. this is all ahead of the widely anticipated speech by janet yellen at the kansas city fed jackson hole summit at 10:00 a.m. eastern time. ahead of that the dollar is under some selling pressure. really has been for the last few weeks. weaker against the japanese yen and weaker against the euro as well. euro below 1.13. see where we go. p found stronger post confidence in your opinions. 1.3206. let's show you oil. wti crude flirts right at $47 a barrel. off .5%. brent down a full percent this morning. 49.16. there's gasoline. nat gas is at a multi-week high. >> now moving on to politics. the attacks on the company trail are ramping up for sure. both presidential hopefuls
exchanges racially charged accusations. just how intense is it getting, tracey. >> reporter: pretty intense. let's start with hillary clinton. we'll give you donald trump's response too. she's now saying his message and some of the people she's hire reside not only attracting, but em pouring dangerous hate groups. >> they're out. they're out. >> reporter: donald trump on cnn overnight. it's what he said about mexicans, muslims, women and others that's got hillary clinton tieing trump to hate groups. >> these are racist ideas. race baiting ideas. anti-muslim, anti-immigrant, anti-women. all key tenants making up thor emerging racist ideology known at the alt-right. >> when democratic policies
fail, they are left with only this one tired argument. you're racist, you're racist, you're racist. >> reporter: clinton dogged by more e-mails and official meetings with donors to her foundation. >> hillary clinton's action constitute all of the elements of a major criminal enterprise. you know it, the government knows it and she knows it. >> reporter: clinton is arguing trump's strategy and his team have changed, but his ideas haven't. >> we know who trump is. a few words on a teleprompter won't change that. >> reporter: now neither candidate is out campaigning today. trump has private events in nevada. back to you. >> certainly watch what happens ahead of next week and see if that heats up. >> now to sports and the on going ryan lochte saga. brazilian police have filed the swimmer with filing a falls robbiery report.
lochte will be able to decide whether to introduce a defense in brazil. police also sending the indictment to the olympic committee ethics commission. not all bad news for him today. ryan lochte has picked up a new sponsor after four others dropped him. pine brothers soft tloet drthro drops says lochte should be forgiven. the companies cough drofs are forgiving on your throat. >> i see what they did. little press opportunity for them. see if it works. >> still to come, top stories. >> and more insight on the market as we await janet yellen's speech. we'll get you set up on how to trade this one. ben liadler joins us next. and join in for michael gapen later in the show. you're watching cnbc, first in business. worldwide.
fast internet speed to drive performance, plus cutting edge wifi for your employees and customers, and voice mobility so your calls find you wherever you are. get some of our most advanced products at a great price with over $500 in savings. call today and ask how to get these savings plus a $250 prepaid card. comcast business. built for business. good morning. fed in focus. the market looks desperately from direction from fed officials gathering right now in jackson hole. and ignore at your own risk why putting off yourm iphone software update could get you hacked. it's friday, august 26, 2016 and you're watching "world wide exchange" on cnbc.
good morning and welcome back to "world wide exchange" cnbc on a friday. i'm sara eisen along with dom who is in for wilfred today. >> it's new music friday and i don't know any of these songs. >> that's the point. we're teasing you. this is the latest from justin beeber and d.j. snake. >> let's get a check on the global market sara. we are seeing, yes, shocking very splat markets ahead of what could be a very big day for the fed. s&p off -- up now 4 points. doup jones up 26 points. nasdaq up 5-6 points as well. let's see if anything in europe has gotten better. we did see marginal weakness across the board. we did see a bit of an imprement. cac in france down by abo about .10%. the ftse flat. the ftse mib in italy off.
the ibex in spain flat as well. as for the asian session overnight. we did see a little bit of weakness coming out of japan. the nikkei down over a percent there. the shanghai comp flat. >> after a new low for japanese inflation, which never is good news. as for the broader market, cross asset picture this morning. oil 47.13. down. as for the ten-year treasury note yield, we hover around the 1.55 level. tight ranges, light trading, looking for direction. maybe janet yellen can provide that this morning. let's also quickly s lly show y dollar which has been weaker and weaker this morning. the euro stronger just below the 1.13 level.
the dollar versus the japanese yen. dollar under pressure. hovering above the 100 level. the pound is stronger, worth noting the data continues to show a better picture of the uk, at least immediately after the brexit vote. better consumer confidence numbers this morning keeps the pound above 1.32. gold is higher this morning on the back of the weaker u.s. dollar. it has sold off this week though. >> along with gold minors. >> bill dudly of the new york fed and talking up the economy and need for interest rate hikes. that's the question of the day. >> of course. takes us to where we're going next. janet yellen could be commanding the bulk of the market attention today. some other items on the agenda as well leading up to the big main event. we're going to get the second estimate at 8:30 a.m. eastern time. growth is forecast to be revised slightly lower to 1.1%. also look out for july international trade numbers and the final report on august
consumer sentiment. that's out this morning as well. as for the company side of things on the earnings side, big lot reports before the opening bell. it's the only one really of note. another data point on the overall consumer health picture, specifically on the lower to mid end of the income and spending spectrum. to today's korptd news story. mu apple has issued a security update. researchers in toronto discovering the spy ware after it was used to target a prominent activist in the united arab. it would have allowed hackers to fully take over an iphone 6 allowing them to use the drank to snoop on him, track his movements and record data. apple was notified of the flaw last week and quickly developed a patch. what we're hearing this morning is must update your phone when it tells you to download the update. >> i'm looking at the phone now and i do have the 9.3.5 patch so
i'm up-to-date. >> that's the latest one. i have a feeling i am not. >> 9.3.5. >> after the show. back to the broader markets. the fed summit in jackson hole wyoming. janet yellen steps up at 11:00 a.m. we look at how wall street might react. ben laidler. global strategist. good morning. >> good morning. >> is this too much hype and expectation? >> i would say yes and know. on the news today she's going to keep it pretty neutral. it's going to be a technical discussion here. i think markets already reacted so what in terms of expectations, especially for september and partly december. the fed is reasonably comfortable with that. they don't want to prejudge all
the data between now and the first of september. having said all that, we're in a place where the valuations are very high. sentiment i would argue is not very poor. we're if in quite a fragile place. from the equity side, that's driving all the attention on the fed. >> does the market have it right. when it's hovering near record highs. haven't seen much movement. no onwuone percent moves in wha can remember. what is the market getting right or wrong in interpreting all this data. >> this fed the going to stay dubbish. we're not lo dovish. i think the multiples are pretty well supported. i do think we're very frooj ifr economic uncertainty wherever you look is way above average lechls. that's going to continue to eat into gdp expectations.
earnings expectations. leaves us vulnerable to the next piece of bad news. i don't think we're going to get that today, but it's a tough world out there right now. >> you're in the camp that says things are too quiet and this is the calm before the storm. >> storm maybe. we have a 10% pull back of equities here. >> this year. >> by year end. >> what triggers it? >> that's a good question. so in my flippant answer would be we don't know until we see it. it's observe after the event. a lot of news flow coming out of europe. maybe it's yellen today. maybe i'm wrong. and, you know, oil prices, japan, i don't think gets enough focus. i don't know. i just my point is i think we're pretty vulnerable here. >> sure. >> let's figure, you have your convictions about what the market could be doing, from a strategy standpoint, that's what you get paid to do, how are you telling clients to position themselves for the rest of the year given what your views of
the market are going to be. >> cross asset basis. if you are equities the, u.s. the safe haven. the one structural that we have is emerging markets. the dovish fed, stable dollar is releasing a lot of pressure off emerging markets and probably the most exciting earnings in margin stoirp out of the next few years. investors have done well this year. investors are still well underweight. >> the fact the fed is going to wait to middle of next year so raise interest rates. what you're hearing from core members of the fed including dudly and fisher is that a rate hike might be appropriate this year. why don't you believe them. >> i think they're going wait until employment is closer to 4.5. gdp maybe 1.1% for the second quarter. they're going to wait until that's closer to 2. i think they're going to be cautious. we've heard a lot of this talk
before over the years and proven to be pretty cautious, even if we're wrong, i thinking this is a very delayed, very slow cycle which is going to support equity multiples. >> does feel like the bond market is with you on that one. thank you. thanks for joining us. ben laidler from fsbc. >> we promised you more brittany spears. her life story is going to get the lifetime treatment. two our film entitled brittany the movie. tell the story of her life starting in louisiana. her relationship with justin timberlake and most recently her comeback following the highly apply sized 2007 struggles. it's the stuff of a lifetime. it was only a mart of time. >> i was in las vegas a couple of weeks ago and i was so upset to hear the brittany show was not on because she is taking
that time off. she's not coming back until the fall. >> were you going to go. >> i was going to go. i don't know how much i would have paid, but i wanted to see brittany in concert. brittany certainly a topic of today's news. another top trending story besides brittany spears, an amazon bookstore is headed to the windy city. planning to open fourth brick and mortar bookstore? chicago by 2017. seems so odd. thought they were all dead and killed by amazon. life is not without a sense of irony there. prices will be comparable to online offerings and customers will be able to test out amazon devices like the kindle, echo, fire tv. nice way to cross promote. >> senate chat is set to reveal a new filter. shows the high school football
scores. provide snapchat with the realtime score updates from the game. gatorade is part of the new initiative. score boards will have branding. this coming after snapchat rolled out live gee owe filters for the nba. the numbers are growing. >> you're on it. >> but high school football. that tells you what the target market is. you're talking about high school sports games. that's going to be a big deal. you and i are both on snapchat. >> correct. i will not be using any score gee owe filters for a while. >> me neither. coming up on must reads. as we head to break, check out how markets are shaping up. we got back a lot of losses we saw earlier in the session. just in the half hour. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. llo. if it to go down... nooo.. then if i want to come back again... it's perfect. if it to go down... yeoo.. now th we' a adstable base, my favite rt is be able toift your ls up aittle bi
welcome back to "world wide exchange." today's must read stories. my pick from the "new york times." titled a complicated alliance with turkey. the obama administration is right to make efforts to keep relations with turkey from worsening. sit an important nato ally. washington has made it clear how highly it regards alliance with turkey, but that should not give mr. erdogan to violate human rights. a lot of themes developed there. just the idea that turkey is an
important part of that whole middle east picture for stability. >> absolutely. my pick, i had a lot of choocho from. i was going to go with the fed from the wall street journal. i went instead to the immigration issue, which is front and center for trump. it is titled trump faces immigration reality. it comes from the editorial board on the evolution of the trump immigration strategy and plans. the pligs questions as ever with mr. trump are whether his new tone will last and whether too much electoral damage has already been done, other than trade and american greatness, no issue is more closely associated with the candidate that immigration. it end on a positive note saying clinton is going after him for changing his tune, but maybe they're just scared he just may come to the right policy and win that demographic. >> a lot of people are saying right now this is the same kind of immigration policy that was
kind of touted by jeb bush or a marco rubio early on in the presidential cycle. >> first he said no amnesty. now he's saying a little closer to amnesty. >> if they pay their taxes. a lot of things going on. trump opponents will say he's flip-flopping and trump supporters will say he's evolving. >> it's an important business issue for a lot of companies we cover the exhibiticonomics of i the fact they're a part of the critical work force. we are paying close attention to this issue. someone we also know paying close attention to this issue is joe kernen, the team getting ready for "squawk box" in new york. just talking about the immigration evolution of mr. donald trump. >> it is weird. yesterday i saw jeb bush making comments. it's -- okay. i understood that, you know, in the height of a campaign season, people are going to say things that probably as we now to win
in the primaries. and candidates all over. hillary probably moved left and said certain things that won't be don't to satisfy bernie sanders supporters, but all those guys, cruz, bush, saz it functionally impossible to get a task force of people to root out all. >> rubio it's kboobl to do it. everyone knew it was impossible. trump said i'm going to do it anyway. once it becomes clear it was a reality and hi coe comes to tha reality. the left is mad at him for flip-flopping on something they thought was the worst thing to do anyway. >> it was impossible to do anyway. >> he acknowledges it and softens up and now he's getting it from both sides. his supporters who backed him --
anyway. >> but the wall will still stand. that's what he's known for. >> i still associate, joe, the wall with him. we're going to build it. >> so do i. i don't think that's -- i don't know whether you used it figuratively or literally. borders need to be secured. go to europe. when i go to europe, they don't let me in until they know who i am. >> and sometimes still don't let you in. >> even after they do know who a. . we're going to listen. it's fed day. most people say she's not going to take september off the table, but she's not going to put it on the table and it's going to be data dependent and blah, blah, blah blah. so whether we get the second hike in ten years to, you know, another quarter point, who knows. it does matter in the markets have been a little bit quiet and seems like they're -- what is it when they go like that. the volatility gets to a point. >> too quiet. >> thanks joe.
>> see you in a bit. coming up here, comments from fed chair janet yellen. they're sure to set the tone on the street for the rest of the day and perhaps beyond. get a prove from michael gapen. stay tuned. you're watching cnbc first in business worldwide. . gilm: go get it, marcus. go get ...cch giln us his ca rewds cret card om ban america toarn casback evhere, every me. ♪ [ owd cheers 2% bk grocerytores and now atholele cbs d 3%ack on g. which heed him give his ayers something tr thcash rewar credit bank arica. re ch ba foththings youuy mt.
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welcome back to "world wide exchange." and good morning. joining us now to talk about what we can expect to hear from janet yellen the fed chair this morning, michael gapen, chief u.s. economist at barclays. with his expectations. so the wall street journal has this front page article, fed stumbles, fuelled populism. don't know if you had a chance to see it. out this morning, looking at how the fed is missing on the inflation front, missing on a
number of other fronts and now is facing lower credibility and lower popularity and having a very hard time trying to takele the problems that the u.s. economy faces. do you agree? is that criticism warranted? >> actually, i do. on the credibility angle, of course, they've struggled with the expectation and their communications that we're going to start raising rates and here's a path we're going to follow and they did it once and have found reasons not to do it again. those reasons may be valid, but there's a little bit of crying wolf aspect to it that i think markets have latched on to. so they're listening less. that is a problem. in terms of the populism, i would -- if there's blame delay, i would actually lay it at a combination of monetary and fiscal policy. monetary policy can't quite do redistribution and income equality. that's more on the angle of fiscal policies, but if you're looking at fed policies and you
think ultra accommodative low interest rates asset purchases have boosted financial valuations, but not necessarily generated the economic outcomes that people wanted, then you say, look it may have benefit instead a smaller segment of society than society as a whole. that underlies some of the populism backlash that the policy is face. >> greg: now, michael, it's dominic here. let's talk about this idea. there's plenty of blame to go around and a lot of responsibility needed to be taken on the monetary and fiscal side. can you tell us right now if the u.s. economy is in good shape or is it not? can it sustain an interest rate or can it not? >> i believe the economy is in good shape and strong enough to withstand another interest rate hike. i do think we'll get one before the end of the year. as joe said in the lead in, it will be data dependent. if we get a solid august report. i won't be surprised if
september is live. that's our view. if things are slower, i still think you get one by the end of the year. the domestic side of the economy remains strong enough and the consumer remains in good shape and one more rate hike to me makes sense. >> back to communication. this whole idea of data dependence to me is very confusing from the market's perspective given data in this recovery has been noisy and has been lumpy. so what do investors that i can out of that if she suppresses the whole data dependence thing again. >> it is a bit frustrating in that regard. i agree. i think that the economy has been awfully resilient, but there has been a lot of noise. data dependence is right in a very general sense, but they've failed to communicate that in a clear way. there's about 17 defer in additions definitions around the table of what data dependence means. one thing we know about data is data always gets revised.
getting a clear signal from it is hard. the fed is suspending a lot of time walking around naval gazing thinking about uncertainty and that doesn't tell markets a whole lot. >> speaking of data, outside jobs, what the key data point you would look at as an economist to single whether the u.s. is getting some kind of acceleration into positive growth. >> i just obviously consumption is 70% of economic activities. for me it's a derivative of that. i'm thinking durables consumption. autos. housing. if the consumer is worried about income and employment prospects, they're not going to buying cars. they're not buying houses. that data actually looks pretty good. says the consumers mind set in is a pretty good spot and the overall recovery should continue. >> finally as we continue to ponder the dlem facing the fed, you said that this u.s. economy would be okay. the fed does raise interest rates again this year.
would the global economy be okay. would the emerging markets and currencies and europe just sort of in ale flat line growth period, would that be okay. >> we're in a better place than we were a year to year and a half ago. for a few reasons. we've gotten more easing out of central banks. there's a limit to this and how supportive that can be, but the chinese have also gradually devalued against the dollar. it bleeds a little pressure out of the system. i think there's less likelihood for negative food back through dollar strength and then reverberations into chinese growth and emerging market growth. we're in a better position than we were a year ago. >> all comes back to the dollars. michael, thank you. michael gapen of barclays. what i'm watching will be the post interview with stan any fischer. who better to interpret.
good morning. it's the day we've all been waiting for. all eyes are on this, i dare say. janet yellen set to talk about interest rates and inflation. live from jackson hole. beautiful area. we'll tell you what to expect. you're apple device, meanwhile, could be at risk. what you need to do now to prevent hackers from taking over your phone's camera and microphone. plus the fire storm overepipens. lawmakers and leaders responding to the comments on "squawk box" yesterday. the hot seat is getting hotter. it's friday, august 26, 2016.
and "squawk box" begins right now. good friday morning. welcome to squax here on cnbc. i'm kayla along with joe kernen and and drew sorkin. becky is off today. we are counting down to the fed speech in jackson hole wyoming. listening for any clues about the rate hike. any pace of inflation in this country. u.s. equity futures at this hour, we've been counting them down to a few decimal points throughout the morning. currently dow was set to open up about 31 points. s&p would set to open about five. nasdaq would open about eight so we are relatively in positive territory going against the trend we've seen in week. overnight in asia, japan