tv Fast Money CNBC August 26, 2016 5:00pm-5:31pm EDT
ackman. bill ackman supported this story this morning. completely contrary to what ackman said today, i have never given jerry's an order to sell. he bought 2.3 million more. the share's up 4% afterhours. mike and evan, thanks for joining us. we'll hand it over to "fast money" right now. >> "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking times square, your traders on the desk -- tonight, shots fired. billionaire investor carl icahn shooting down ackman's quhents saying not only is he not selling stock, he bought more today. we'll have details. plus, morgan stanley betting the farm on amazon, one business that could senn the giant soaring down to road to its next trillion dollars and later, health care stocks gets smoked on the heels of mylan's
controversy. first, we start with janet yellen. steve liesman is on the ground where it all took place in jackson hole, wyoming. steve, she? >> well, she was clear i thought this her keynote speech here at the meeting that rates will likely rise soon. here's from the speech quote in light of continued solid performance of the labor market and our outlook for economic activity and inflation, i believe the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened in recent months. that means it's coming, but was unclear about when the fed might hike, but later, i asked the vice chair, sfan fisher, if a rate hike was possible in september and maybe one this year. >> i think what the chair said today was consistent with answering yes to both of your
questions, but these are not things we know until we see the data. people people get upset about ut saying we're data driven and i see criticisms of data driven. i don't know what the alternative is to a coin? >> so, his comments prompted reversal in stocks. based his outlook to improve in the second half of the year. several officials think first half growth could rise to about 3% in the second half of the year. >> i think we'll have some strengthening in the second half of the year, yes. i think the economy's on a good track. i think the employment numbers show that. i think the inflation numbers are coming up slowly. they're below our targets still, but move ng a right direction. >> the consensus looks for 180,000 and that could be enough for a fed that thinks it's at low employment to move on rates,
so that's my call. i'm think ofg making here. if they do 18 0, maybe that sales a hike. sfl you think u sam fisher sort of did yellen's dirty work? the markets seemed to be skeptical when she spoke, but then reacted sharply when fisher spoke and seemed to believe him that the hike was on the table at this point. . >> i was a little surprised by the market's notion of rallying. i think it's consistent with the hike this year. the case is strengthened in resent months if r a rate hike. why did it rally? now, again, fisher did say yes to the possibility of one in september and maybe more than one this year. and maybe that's what spooked the market. not sure if it a, paid attention to what yellen said or what
fisher said. i don't see a lot of space between them. maybe fisher put a more hawkish spin on it. i think the difference is a quarter point in december. zpl steve, thank you. of course, when that quarter point happen, that's what the markets are so fixated on. i asked the that question because the market reaction on the back of stan fisher's comment seemed sharp, especially as bewent through the day because take a look at what happened in the ten-year yield. went up from 1.5 and change earlier in the session. the dollar managed to close sharply higher and you look at sort of the high yield plays, utility, intel, com. they were the sharpest decliners among s&p sectors here, so how do we parse this in your? >> the s&p 500 was down today, but it wasn't really like a crater. wasn't down 1 or 2%. barely down. so, we had a lot of intraday volatility. for me, i focus on the currency markets. the dollar index is telling you
something. it wasn't down that much. there's something in there for everybody. people listen to stan fisher. that means the dollar's being strong. that's where i would stay. >> stop sign fisher is the same guy that said they were going to go four times. froms consider the source. i don't know if they're doing the dirty work, what i would say is you know, bill dudley and who else did we get? evans. we had a case where we had a lot of fed speaker, but ultimately, the case is there's starting to be some consistency with this message, but to their credit, it's coming after housing market is tarting to really take off. we have wage growth, a durables number yesterday that had the component coming alive so, to say these guys don't have a reason to be more positive, they're more constructive on the economy and that makes a ton of sense to me. >> i think they've had data that's looked positive already.
there's been so many times where they could have raised rates. they've chosen not to. last night, we talked about what happened happen. we said utilities staples will probably sell off. gold would probably sell off and what would run would be financials. got a little of that. got the utilities. didn't get enough of financials, so i think financials are stuck between that getting spooked of higher rates for the overall market, but positive about it for the financials specifically. >> the reason why i asked steve and i used the word dirty work, because the market expectation is essentially low in terms of rate hike in september. and so after yellen spoke, it seem sort of like more of the same an then fisher came out and it sort of was like, no, this is actually could happen. whether or not you believe fisher as a source. >> i believe him. to tim's point, the data has been better. all the goal posts they've put forth have been met, so why wouldn't they move in september?
i would say they're raising into an earnings recession, but i don't think that's the point at this point. i do think they should move in september. i think they'll get some crede bability pack. what my concern is again is this yield curve f, which by the way, continues to flatten out. whether it's good for banks, bad for bank, it's happened before, i don't know, but what does it signal for the economy when you have a yield curve that continues to happen? i think ten year, sift back down to 1.45%. on the front, you'll see the front end move up. >> i think you buy into the bond mark and yuletyties. everybody's expecting this gdp. it just hasn't. we haven't seen that. >> bad thing -- >> what do you buy, right? if you want yield, you bayou tillty, bobd bonds. >> but i think what we're getting here is first of all, this was coming off of the most extreme shoblg we've had in financial markets for the
economy. the fourth longest cycle since the 1800s and we have a place that's never impressed anybody and what's impressive is that the economy doesn't die of old age then we're actually continues to go and trudge higher. if some other components are starting to pick up and understandably, we're really waiting for other signs. in business investment still on the sidelines, this is ultimately constructive. >> i'm 25 basis points because the world is a better place is a very constructive backdrop and banks can make money in this environment. and you know, people think bank on the fly yield curve don't make money. do your history. banks were trading at flat multiples. >> it's because of -- most of them are good portion of the loans are tied to libor. banks are going to make money. >> they've been beat p up so bad. >> and get yield. get them on valuation, yield and
you potential ly get this tail wind of higher rates. >> here's the major thing, reefs are coming out, 18% of the financials. that's been the real yield inside of financials. they're coming out august 31st, so i wonder what that does to financials. breaking news out of herbalife. susan? >> just about 30 minutes ago, carl icahn says he has increased his stake to over 20% by another 2.3 million extra shares on top of his 18% holdings. herbalife ceo has come out with a statement responding to the icahn purchase and says we appreciate the support of all of our investors and we are particularly grateful to carl icahn and the conviction he shares and continues to show in our business as demonstrated by today's significant increase in his stake in the committee and this comes from chairman and ceo of herbalife. i'll get you more on the back and forth between bill ackman and carl icahn in a bit, but herbalife likes this boost from
carl icahn. >> thank you. of course they like it. is it conviction though driving carl icahn or vengeance? when it comes to the relationship? zpl the statement is kind of ludicrous, too. realized there's this public war and i realize for herbalife, it's been down to the basis of what they do, but to applaud an activist investor because he seems to be fighting a fight that seems to be personal, i wouldn't get in the fray. >> what you're see iing is old school block trading, playing out on tv. carl icahn, maybe he wanted to get out. maybe he didn't. got wind of it, all of a sudden, ackman's on tv. what would i do if i was carl sf go and buy 2 million shares today and drive that price up. not selling, thank you very much. >> is he overplaying his hand? respectfully, i'm with tim on this. the ceo making a comment that is a little bit ludicrous. i would submit that maybe on his
desk collectively, we probably know more about herbalife than carl does. i say that though, what he knew was bill ak had a monster short on. this was history going wak to his tas with with erwin jacobson and just took advantage of a weak short. could mean he's overplaying. >> still ahead, a solid day of gains for amazon after morgan stanley says they know what the next trillion dollar opportunity is for the giant. later, health care is now o second worst performing sector this week s. the selling beginning to look overdone. unch]
watch. what better day to bring it back. >> here's the recent high. we've done a lot of these retracements before. what we do pretty infrequently is the overshoot level. overshoot, it's 50%. you're 618 models. these are the levels. 21.84. where as the market stopped, recently, 21.93. bouncing around here. feels like an eternity. really hasn't been. if you get that fed rate hike, i think the market gets softer. look at this level here. that's your flat on year. look at the duration. shorter and shorter.
not that much to play for. so you have to believe the market is really going to sell off and stay down to be a bear in this market. >> there's also by the way, september's around the corner. it's next week. seasonally the worst month. >> we have a lot of risk out there. not only do we have the federal reserve, but you have the bank of japan, which is going to review its program. a lot of things out there. opec as well. i buy vix. >> if you look over the last month and a half, it almost ensures we're going to see the index being forced. the people feel that the fed's move even if they go once in september changing the story because one rate hike is not going change. i think it would be a constructive time for marketses. last year, he made a high.
if the russell rolls over, that could portend, i think the russell let us out this rear. >> let's get to our call of the day here. amazon shares are jumping. its next opportunity for the commerce giant. amazon vehicles, that allows users to -- selling the cars. it sells auto parts, which account for more than $7 billion in online sales this year. the company said it's expanding its footprint by opening three more stores across the country. we should note the analyst is clear. not just selling cars. there are franchise laws around us, what tesla can open up and sell directly to the consumer, but it can sell used cars because there aren't laws to protect the used car business.
>> it makes sense. no reason they shouldn't be in the business. it's a case where i think the company need to focus on their next opportunity and the commitment they've made into lodgistics and procurement, that's what they need to do. i don't think they have an edge. where amazon truly the is proven their model works is because of the warehousing, the investment they have. >> they're scale, so they squeeze out smaller players. they've seen it in everything they did and retail. >> an advantage here. they don't have scale. >> used cars are mostly local. >> i didn't mean that. >> sort of. >> you don't buy a a used car in california. >> they could have agreements with localities existing. they have agreements. never count them out. there's always when you have the volume that they can have, i think that's bullish.
>> or you can take the flip side, thinking it has scaled and it doesn't really. >> you could say that about anything. i'm not sure i would buy or sell amazon shares on this. they work out a shaving of it. they don't have to sell anything. whether it's used or new. zpl you go into a dealer, you get the costco price. >> big is a good word. it's a common thing. zpl for you, i never know what's common with you. vigorous. it's a gambling term.
they report on september 22nd. i think you buy azo on the weakness. >> doesn't ebay sell cars? >> yeah so, i think the biggest with jet.com. >> walmart is a big threat. >> that's a bigger threat than worrying about whether they're going to take a -- >> she had.com. >> are you kidding me? >> still ahead at this hour. retail stocks are surge, but is it time the sell the rally. we'll tell you why one of our traders is getting short. in the meantime, here's what else is coming on up. >> it may be national dog day, but what about stocks that are best in show? >> surely, you can't be serious. >> i am serious. don't call me surely. >> we're serious, too because we've got four stock picks ready to take your portfolio to dog
gone new heights. plus, trouble in the safety trade? not so fast. we'll tell you why one so-called safety stock is about to make a major comeback. that's ahead on fast. can a hpasteo ything well? this clean was like - w. felt ke i had just gone to the deist. uskif kewid they ao white..my tth a gwi. crest [hd]. 6x cleaning, 6x whiteng. and at wee supersensivy reef
the summerf audi sales eventis. ture? get up to a $5,000 bonus on asectudi models welcome back to "fast money." want to take another look at share of herbalife on the news that car icahn has increaseded his stake in the shares. up by 4% right now and it was a heavy volume day during the regular session as this back and forth was going on with bill ackman coming on this morning. in the afterhours session, it's
traded well north of 234,000 shares since 4:00 and on a friday, that's a lot of shares. they were out with a statement saying they were grateful the icahn and his conviction. conviction. >> the fact bill ackman's dragged him into court on a merit to be determined, that you've got an activist investor that's taking the other side because it seems like he likes to take the other side. this is a self-fulfilling moment right now. obvious, the stock's higher. anytime he says he cares about something, doesn't mean he's going to benefit from that. ultimate ly, you have a place here where this stock to me is really a case where none of us will know where these guys are going to come out on top. you should not be trading for either one. >> 40% short spres. it's a lot easier for a long an e dpoe. there's both massive egos here. this is a huge fight between the two of them. with a 40% short interest, you
could squeeze him harder. >> do not miss our all-star lineup at this conference. carl icahn will be back this year joined by some of the top names in the industry. that happens in new york city on september 13th. okay. now, today, if you didn't know, is national dog day. so we couldn't end the show without celebrating a dpu of our favorite four-legged friends. take a look at our traders with their dogs. >> i didn't know you had two dogs. >> who's dog is that? >> that's mine. ellie. >> grasso's got cats. >> rare breed of dog. only a real man can have exotic cats. >> guess so. and two of them. >> british blue. >> they're not alley cats. >> trade school. all right, so with these futures in mind, we want to go around the horn for some best in show. pay attention. best in show. stock picks. i'm going to go reverse. guy.
>> changing things up. >> mastercard's been a stock we've talked about since the inception of this show. people will complain that the valuation is too rich, but having come back from europe where nobody seems to take american suppress, it's clear mastercard and visa win. i'd take ma. >> for me, best in show is something that shines even when things don't look that good and today, if you looked at silver, slv, even though the dollar was up, gold went down, silver was up. quietly, it's doing something interesting. >> steve. >> yesterday, it was my final trade. dollar gen. butchered down 18%. i said it was day one. today was two. defended that 75.13 low on day one. let's wait for monday, but i think you're going to make a nice profit. >> tim. >> at the risk of -- i do have a
pick. avon. this has been a huge dog for the last couple of years. this is a name that's starting to turn margins around. >> that does it for us here on fast. catch us back on monday at 5:00. optio options action starts after this break. where, in all of this, is tthe stakes are so high, ur finances, ur future. w doou solve this? yoyopath a firm that advises govements and the fortune 500, and, caneliveright perto person, morgantanley. on what matters to you i'just a guy who wants to sell him that truck.nd just n so isetrcar. it td me what other pele i e area paifor. the truck i i nt. it td me what other pele i d cause we're a truecar certifd dealership, i alrey know the truck heants
amazing sleep stays with you all day and all night. sleep number beds with sleepiq technology give you the knowledge to adjust for the best sleep ever. the time is now for the biggest sale of the year, where all beds are on sale! save 50% on the labor day limited edition bed. know better sleep. only at a sleep number store. we are back and joined by a special guest. the one and only. i'm add mad as hell and i'm not going take this anymore. >> that's one one of our traders is saying about the health carousel off this week and he'll tell ewe why now could be the perfect time to get back in. plus -- that pretty much sums up the move in bonds today after janet yellen hint ed at a september rate hike. we'll tell you how much worse