tv Worldwide Exchange CNBC August 30, 2016 5:00am-6:01am EDT
>> good morning and welcome to "world wide exchange." i'm sara eisen. >> i'm wilfred frost. good morning from me as well. best day for the s&p 500 in weeks. best day for the dow in two weeks and gains are set to continue. marginal gains. s&p up less than a full point. dow jones up 17. nasdaq up 2. one more trading day in the month, two, today and tomorrow. we are seeing another month of gains. fractional. we still continue the streak of not having a 1% move, but the path of least resistance appears to be to the upside. >> lowest volume day of the year yesterday. so far a continuation of the interest rate from the stocks from friday did well. all be it confusingly bond yields did slip down. banks were the best performing sector. equities playing catchup with the dollar move we had with rate
rise expectations. see energy do well despite oil prices slipping. a couple of dislocations. let's show you the ten-year treasury yield. right now. backing up a bit yesterday. taking higher this morning. we are below the 1.60 level. sit a heavy week of economic data ending with the ultimate, the job numbers for the month of august. we say it every month it takes on greater importance, but it really does after the comments from the central bankers in jackson hole looking for the trend of job improvement and wage gains to continue to raise as early as september. the bond market pricing that in more than 50% chance nor december, not september. we'll see where rate expectations move with the data. >> certainly expectations have
come forward a little bit. let's have a look at what's happening around the rest of the world. europe rallied when wall street opened and opened positively. pretty positive today as you can see. germany and france up 1%. ftse 100 closed yesterday. flat. italy and spain bouncing back. we had data out of europe which will come to in a moment for you which has helped markets this morning. asia also seeing decedent trade for the most part of the back of strong close on wall street yesterday. japan as you can see, just below flat. that was particularly strong yesterday after we've seen the yen weaken since friday. >> as for the broader market picture, go across and show you oil which is gaining this morning. wti 47.33 after selling off yesterday by more than a percent. brent is inching toward that $50 a barrel level again. 49.60. up .70%.
gasoline prices firm as well. as for the u.s. dollar, this has been the center of the action. especially the dollar versus the yen. this reflects short-term interest rate expectations. it is particularly tied to the two-year yield. which is also tied to where the market thinks the fed is going. we are looking at a three-week high for the u.s. dollar against the japanese above 102. it's not a huge move, but worth watching as we try to figure out september or december or even a rate hike this year. the euro continues to sell off with the dollar stronger again. versus that currency. and the dollar stronger against the pound as well. 1.30. as for bolgold, down 2% for the month of august this year. some of the gains we've seen in 2016 have backed off on the stronger u.s. dollar that we have seen. >> indeed. want to mention as well the jurpz data in terms of what come out in the last few minutes. lowest level since october 2013
so disappointing reading in terms of business sentiment in europe as you can see earlier, european stocks still doing well today despite that. might be down to expectations of more easing off the back of it. either way, strong gains across europe today. >> i wonder if there's a brexit effect on this. wider europe. >> in terms of business confidence, yeah. -- >> will state aide from ireland. if t it could believe ordered to pay approximate billions of dollars in back taxes. claim for taxes from the world's multinationals. the u.s. press secretary josh earnest responded ahead of today's decision, listen. >> the united states is committed to tax fairness. we want to make sure that the
kinds of agreements that we reach with other countries are not manipulated to allow certain companies to shirk that responsibilities. >> he says on one hand this has been a point of contention between the u.s. and european authorities. this idea that potentially europe, the european commission which is centered in brussels, going after u.s. multinationals, especially technology companies pretty hard when it comes to anti-trust rules. alphabet, amends, some of these tech companies because you want european tech companies to compete more. denies the political implications, but this is a big issue between the two. >> of course the same time the white house would love the companies not to have headquarters where they're keeping a lot of earnings. either way, the actually ruling comes out at 6:00 a.m. eastern time and know what the find is.
thought to be in and around a billion. the biggest so far to date has be 1.2 billion. it's not going to break the bank for apple. this is much more significant that's going to move the share price in the short-term for apple. i do think it's significant if terms of symbolism and not only for apple, but also for ireland. this is embarrassing for them. >> they've been courting this companies for years. >> they thought they tidied up their own domestic tax already. this ruling says it's not. it's embarrassing for them. hurts their aid and abbility to businesses. and after brexit, this will annoy people being told what to do in terms of their tax systems. they thought they had already sorted out. >> brussels telling national government. the whole issue. live in brussels this morning. we'll go to her in just a few minutes where the decision will be handed down.
as wilfred mentioned in less than an hour. >> more news from the apple front. mark your calendar. major product event on september the 7th. unlike prior invitations. no clues to what the company is cooking up. the tech giant will use the event to unveil the new iphone and possibly an apple watch. >> people figured out that was the top of the apple shape. >> did you see that? >> no, i didn't. >> we read into every little clue. >> i like it. >> something multidimensional. >> could be a new device. >> we'll have to wait and see. insiders say apple may remove the head phone jack from high phone which would require the use of bluetooth headphones. >> next week. looks like the deal was not sweet enough. we're talking about monday leez
taking over hersheys. it was disappointed with the outcome. would have created the world's largest candy make. last week hersheys turned down a new bid by mondelez. that worked out to be about $107 a share. quickly we saw a reaction from hersheys shareholders selling off to the tune of about 12% there. disappointment. that was potentially the mma premium. those shares, mondelez shared gained after hours up 3%. the ceo of mondelez was quoted in the release using the disappointed language saying no way given some of the shareholder issues at hershey they were going to be able to make the deal. removes a layer of uncertainty. hershey would have given them a
good domestic play. mondelez has huge emerging markets, european exposure. international company. the one spot where they could sort of complete the whole global snack making business is in the u.s. that's what hersheys has. >> american chocolate is not as good. >> i'll give you that. moving on. economics reports. home prices in the 20 biggest metro markets. to have risen more than 5% in june. at 10:00 a.m. look for august consumer confidence. on the earnings front, aber com by and fitch reports before the bell. after close we hear from h&r block. >> still to come on "world wide exchange," today's top stocks to watch. all of the movers in the premarket session. but first, we're sending out birthday wishing to warren buffett who turns 86 years old
today. berkshire ceo. founder of zara. >> happy birthday. warren buffett. we'll be right back. ♪ [cheering] ♪ the highl♪ advanced audi a4. nomy favorite part adjustable base, is to be able to lift your legs up a little bit, and it feels like i'm just cradled. change your sleep, change yr life... change to tempur-pedic.
welcome back to "world wide exchange." very good morning to you. we are called higher just fractionally. 0.01% for the s&p. a fraction more for the dow. nasdaq called slightly higher. in general, it was the interest rate sensitive sectors like banks off the back of that more hawkish commentary from janet yellen on friday that did well. the other sector that did well slightly surprisingly was the energy sector. oil prices were off yesterday quite significantly. over 1.5%, but the energy sector did do rather well. today, oil prices expected to bounce back a bit. wti higher by 0.85%. 47.4 for wti. been a strong month for oil prices. for a developing story we've been watching this hour. major decision set to drop on apple. european regulators getting
ready to rule whether the tech giant should pay billions of dollars in back taxes. joining us from brussels on what we're expecting in 45 minutes time, julia. >> reporter: good morning, sara. as you're expecting, the european commission here expected to rule against apple. deeming that the tax arrangements they have with ireland are illegal. they amount to state aide. if that is the decision, they order ireland to give 1.3 million dollar of unpaid taxes or more. that's not an insignificant amount, but it's dwarfed by the estimated $19 billion estimate that j.p. morgan suggested the apple could be ordered to pay. now, if you compare either of these two amounts and compare that to the amount of cash apple has sitting overseas. over $215 billion.
it's nothing. j.p. morgan said the share price won't be affected, but the politics are more important. ireland has plenty of relationships they want the protect. apple said they will protest if they feel they're being treated unfairly. then you have the u.s. treasury. even as late as last week they said they believe the european commission are unfairly attacking u.s. nationals operating abroad here. they also reserve the right to retaliate with tax measures of their own. when we look at the number that gets announced here, if it's at the lower end, you can see it as a symbolic move by the european commission under pressure from ireland and under pressure from the u.s. if it's a big number, it's a bold move and sets us up for a landmark legal battle. >> we'll be waiting to see what that number is. aside from the specific number and what it means for apple going forward, what about the fact this is happening at all
for ireland because they had thought they tidied up the tax affairs sufficiently so this wouldn't come to such a ruling. >> reporter: no, you're absolutely right. this is an awkward situation for them. this tax case with apple dates back to decisions made 25 years ago, 1991, and 2007. so it is a historic deal. what it could mean for the tax arangsmentes currently is another suggestion. j.p. morgan said if it refers to current tax aranrangements it could be a hit. the follow through is very important on this. it is awkward for ireland and awkward for europe too. they want to attract u.s. multinationals and this sets up a far bigger battle. >> is what apple is doing unique to apple? they have 5500 people employed around the city of cork ireland. can you tell us a little more about what is at issue here and
whether it's an issue that other companies face as well? >> reporter: well, it's a great question, sara. it's not only apple. remember, you've got companies like microsoft that are making heavy investment, alphabet, google, of course that are also investing in ireland. so for ireland, this is very awkward. they want to protect those relationships. if you look at what the commission has done historically, they've already ordered apple to pay money to italy as well. it's not just apple's setup with ireland in focus. other european countries where it's operates. the spillover affecteffects cou far larger than just ireland. >> we will await that ruling from brussels. thanks for joining us this morning, julia chatterley. >> still to come, top countries in this country. plus soccer fans. this could be the craziest goal you've ever seen.
stay tuned. you'll want to see. before the break, let's get today's national forecast from jen carfagno. >> good morning. we're watching nice weather from the northeast to the front moving into the midwest bringing thunderstorms. big rain potential plus in the south we have a lot going on. glancing low today from what is right now tropical depression eight. going to bring extra rain fall on the order of a couple inches, but that's probably about the extent. today's rain is not because of that here in florida. nonetheless, we've got rain in the forecast. west coast looking dry. the northwest in seattle will be closer to average. very warm conditions continuing across the southwest. dallas has another dry day with heavy rain potential out there across texas. i'm jen carfagno with your
forecast. "world wide exchange" continues after this. that's it. we need really tight temperature controls. engineering, aerodynamics- a split seco too long could mean scrapping it all and starting over. propulsion, structural analysis- maple bourbon caramel. that's what we're working on right now. from design through production, siems technology helps manufacturers meet critic deadlines. i think this'll be our biggest flavor yet. when you only have one shot, you need a whole lotf ingenuity. when whirlpool builds an appliance, they put everything they know into it. but once it's sold, there usually isn't a way to keep improving that product. today, whirlpool can analyze iot sensor data from connected appliances on the ibm cloud. so they cacontinuously learn how customers are usintheir products. and how the machines respond harnessing data to make great products better - that's what the ibm clou.
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more than 1% selloff yesterday. energy stocks did well during the session. wti 47.42. brent the international benchmark up a percent as well. seeing oil gaining along with the u.s. dollar this morning. seeing the opposite over the last few sessions. keep an eye on that into the wall street open. we will. right into politics. election day. not the big one. primaries in several affected by the presidential campaign. tracie potts joins us from washington with all the details. >> reporter: good morning. good morning everyone. let's start with the campaigns. both of them this morning are facing tough new challenges as are some of these other politicians that have been affected by this race. debbie wasserman shultz and marco rubio in florida and john mccain all fighting for re-election. >> people judge me on john
mccain. >> reporter: all affected by the fall out of clinton versus trump. >> build strong borders. build a wall a, end illegal immigration. >> reporter: donald trump preparing to lay out specifics in tomorrow's immigration speech. he's going after black voters with a supportive pastor apologizing for tweeting this photo of hnk in black face. clinton's team has troubles too. >> i love him. i have forgiven him. >> top aide announced she is splitting with her husband, former congress man anthony weaner after more allegations of texting. >> like family not just to hillary clinton, but to the whole campaign. >> trump >>. >> leonel campos can't afford another scandal. something else for donald trump or anybody else to build on. >> also a key figure in the
investigation of clinton's e-mails. >> reporter: in fact the federal judge is telling the state department they have to release e-mails related to work outside the agency and get it done by mid october. >> the latest twist in what is an unusual campaign. thank you. in washington t white house says that president obama will try to convince u.s. trading partners he can still win congressional approval for his free trade deal. during an upcoming trip to asia he will try to save tpp. senate majority leader mitch mcconnell said will not be voting on it this year. putting it to the next president. both hillary clinton and donald trump said they are opposed to the so-called tpp. it does not look likely. >> looks fractionally more than the deal with europe. >> the transatlantic.
>> scorn on that particular one. either way. neither looking very likely. >> moving on to sports. opening night of the u.s. open, the final grand slam tennis tournament of the year. we go under oath the lights to the stadium and center court, which is sporting a new retractable roof this year that can open or close in just seven minutes. defending men's champ was in action. taking on jersey of poland. he was tested, but stood and one. i will be there. the next story features some high flying acrobatics on the soccer field you would expect from the likes of ronaldo, but it came from the high school ranks instead. check out this play from colorado. combine high school junior racing toward the goal and jumps
to avoid the goalie slide, does a front flip with a half twist, sticks the landing and caps off the play by scoring. unfortunately the goal didn't count. called dillon offsides. >> that's pretty epic. >> you should go recruit him. >> we need the help at the hotel. >> still to dcome, "world wide exchange" top stories and plus justin beeber has new believers today. why the pop star is joining the book or world record. stay tuned you're watching cnbc.
good morning. billion dollar billion. the european union could hand apple a hefty bill this morning. snack break, mondelez drops multibillion dollar bid for hershey, leaving investors with a bitter after taste. plus how instagram could be beating you at your own game. it's tuesday, august 30, twoo 2016 and you're watching "world wide exchange" cnbc. ♪ ♪ >> good morning and welcome back to cnbc. i'm sara eisen. >> and i'm wilfred frost. good morning to you from me as
down yesterday, but it's been a strong month of august for oil prices overall. wti is up 13% this month. ten-year note sold off a fraction. up again. in terms of the yield. the dollar yesterday continued its strength from friday all be it in more muted fashion and is at the moment a little bit stronger against the yen as you can see by 0.4% and up. smaller amounts against both the euro and the pound. gold prices been moving in the opposite direction since friday. it's up a little bit more today, a third of 1%. 1322 the gold price. developing story after nearly three-year long investigation, european commission expected to rule whether apple received illegal state aide from ireland. could be ordered to pay billions in back taxes. the case against apple could be the biggest example to claim for tax from the world's
multinationals. press secretary responding ahead of the decision late yesterday. >> the united states is committed to tax fairness. we want to make sure the kinds of agreements that we reach with other countries are not manipulated to allow certain companies to shirk their responsibility sgls the decision is set to come down in less than 30 minutes from now. apple shares as you can see up half a percent. julia chattily is there for us in brussels. we'll have the decision when it comes. looks like this deal was not sweet enough. mondelez walking away from plan to buy hersheys. ending talks after month long campaign after hershey rejected latest offer. mondelez saying it was disappointed from the outcome. quote from the ceo in the press release last night. the combination would have created the world's largest candy maker. last week turned down an offer by mondelez, second offer since
june. bid 23 billion for that firm. amounted to 107 a share. the failure of a deal may reinforce the idea on wall street going to continue her current strategy even without that big domestic chunk of business they would have gotten from buying hershey. meanwhile, alphabet executive who has been on the uber board. stepping down from uber. this comes as both firms are working hard to perfect the self driving car. google ventures invested
>> alaska airlines cutting 225 management jobs at virgin america starting october following the completion of $4 billion takeover. that represents about 8% of virrin america's work force. all nonunion jobs. southwest airlines reaching a tentative deal with pilots after four years of talks. the union says it will provide retroactive pay back to 2013. we are wrapping up our
summer sizzler series this week by taking a look at the top sectors in the s&p 500 that really sizzled in the as you were heat. landon dowdy joins us with all the details. >> good morning. summer is winding down unfortunate unfortunately. he's a look. look accideing back at the data noticed rotation. strong consumer and improving economy. consumer discretionary in at number five. thanks to improving job market and wage growth. urban out fitters. health care. ubs saying the health care companies having a lot of cash and steady earnings growth over the past few years. biogen is up 28%. industrials are in at number three heating up 5.2%. they're a new addition this summer as investors are on the lookout for invest point. financial which is you've been talking about a lot are number
two. up 7.2% on the prospect of higher interest rates from the fed. number one sector this summer, tech. up 10.5%. history of outperforming towards the tail end of bull markets. sea gate up 48 pakt. >> very interesting. all sort of bullish. this rotation. landon, thank you. it is time for our top trending stories, and, of course, we start with this one. the tributes pouring in this morning for gene wilder. the actor best known for rolls as willie won ka and the chocolate factor. he was 83 years old. news of wilder's death spreading quickly throughout hollywood with celebrities taking to twitter. mel brooks who directed him in several mchugh sovies.
he blessed me with his friendship. >> jim carry saying gene wilder was one of the sweetest energies ever to take a p human form. if there's a heaven, he has a golden ticket. billy crystal calling wilder a giant of comedy and a true genius. >> charlie and the chocolate factory has to be an all-time favorite children's movie mpk. justin bieber scoring eight listings in guinness box of world record. 30 million streams on spotify. bieber also breaking the record for having 17 songs on the
billboard hot 100 at the same time. a lot of beliebers out there. gr grats justin. >> don't be surprised if you start seeing changes in your innings gram stories. instagram will suggest stories for you with the help of algorithm and users you already follow. sort of like what snapchat does with stories of new york city or other events. it will be interesting to see the reaction. >> i'm not a fan of the instagram story. >> i have not tried it. >> i haven't posted one. i don't like even following them. i think sha should be kept separate. instagram is more cure rated and now it's losing that. >> big night we should mention for cnbc prime. tonight on the prophet, los angeles company is floundering. brother and sister have stepped in to help.
can't get him to change his ways. unless marcus can succeed where they failed, this company will go out of style forever. this sound like a good prophet and here's a sneak peek. >> how many of these have you sold? >> 20. >> how many of these have you sold. >> 50. >> no, that's been wholesale launch products. and the three of you liking the design isn't a process to me. >> do not miss the profit
tonight on cnbc. still to come on "world wide exchange," today's must reads. head to break, check out how european markets are shaping up. 1% gain. ftse 100 up much less than that, but still in positive territory. don't go anywhere, you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. i'm vern, e oranoney retirement rabbit from voya. orange money represents the money you put away for retirement. over time, your money could multiply. hello, all of you. get organized at voya.com. it's scary when the lights go out. people get anxious and my office gets flooded with calls. so many things can go wrong.
in the paper catching our attention this morning. my pick in the "washington post" titled a putin sponsored october surprise on the hints we might get more release of something. e-mails from russia. writing here perhaps they'll show the clinton decisions. tongue and cheek, but got to be a serious concern. this devlves into this whole ne dimension with russia widely believed to have cyber hacked certain campaigns, including the release of the democratic national committee e-mails and others. >> also tongue and cheek to the aspect of this is what we're
focused on of the top issue. are we going to focus on the fundamental sgls it could be damages. >> it could be, but it's tongue and cheek to the possible list. >> i recommend the piece because it's a serious look at why russia would do this, is russia doing this, what the history of russia doing this is because it is extremely unusual. >> my pick foe dos on a further aspect of this campaign. really piqued my interest this morning. how healthy are clinton and trump. voters should not have to decipher a letter. rely on internet rumors or guess at the health of presidential candidates. anyone seeking the most powerful job in the world should hand at credible records for all voters to see. i pick this because i see it as a relevant factor when both candidates are around 70 years old, but it's so different in
britain. you never have health as an issue coming up. i don't think that's because we're necessarily polite to our political candidates or not, it's simply they're always much younger. that separates out because the lead at the prime minster the leader of the party most seats in the legislature. you never get elected when you're so old. retired by them. the system is different. >> do they have to release the tax returns. >> become an issue since panama paper. they all have to do it. health is never on the agenda. >> absolutely, i remember john mccain who turned 80 yesterday was running. then this question is, do you like sarah palin because he's sort of hold. >> it's a legitimate question. we're approaching the top of the other. team is getting ready for "squawk box." kayla joins us. >> nothing, you lose, god day, sir. >> good morning guys, it's a great day to be on "squawk box." the one thing that i am most excited about is that we have
the one and only wilfred frost joining us later today. -- which is technically an historically the weakest month of the year for stocks. so we'll talk about that. what to expect in september. what to expect when you get that jobs report. we have a very interesting guest to talk about, this recent debate on mylan the epipen drug pricing. the chair of pennsylvania ethics and policy division. he's been a close adviser too many a government official on million issues so we'll talk to him about how obamacare has become basically a monopoly in so many counties across the u.s. as well as this issue of drug pricing. a lot of interesting conversations coming up on "squawk box." wilfred, i know you'll be here if many of those too. >> i'll be there as quickly as i
welcome back to "world wide exchange." a developing story we're following this hour. the european commission expected to rule that apple received illegal state aide from ireland. the tech giant's tax arrangements are found illegal, it could be ordered to pay billions in back taxes. cnbc is all over it. julia chattily is in brussels where the heart of the european commission is delivering this verdict. let's discuss markets here
state side. futures called higher, all be it slightly. yesterday we saw half a percent gain gains and.25 for the nasdaq. pretty much flat as you can see. joining us now, daryl chronk. guilty or not guil good morning to you. thank you for joining us. yesterday we saw banks lead the charge. is that justified? if we do get a hike going forward. >> that's good for financials as a whole. i know you've talked a lot about being one of the most underperforming sectors. faced a lot of headwinds. >> i'm just wondering on that about the rate hike outlook. if we get a solid jobs number and the expectation right now is, what, around 200,000 again for the month of august.
if we get that, does that put september on the table firmly for a rate hike? >> we don't think so. we think september is a bridge too far. the language has changed lately from kind of the if they do another rate hike to when, but september there just isn't enough data. to your point, sara, the only issue could be if the job's number on friday comes in really hot after a 255,000 and 292,000 jobs report. then it does put the probability on the table, but we think the equation is more like december or maybe even next year. we've been saying all year we think the fed is on hold this year and does not do a rate hike. so december has kind of shifted after jackson hole to more of a 50/50. >> when you look at all the r reaction. it's only the dollar responding in significant fashion. was this a temporary move where we overreacted a bit to the
content janet yellen was saying, and, in fact, is there no change really from what she's expected to do and that's wait for a decedent print in terms of data. >> i think a couple of things there. number one, the reason december makes more sense or even next year is you get past money market reform, which happens on october 14, which has put an increase in the short side of the yield curve. you get past seeing on october 28 q3 gdp which we know q1 has been soft. looking for a stronger print there and get rates. washing money ashore has to get
converted to dollars and puts a dollar bid into the market. >> now that we've seen stocks near record highs again, what do you make of the valuations at these levels and are you on board with the idea that as long as we are in super low interest rate world globally, equity market valuations take a back seat? >> i don't know if they take a back seat. they always matter. you do see the trough in earnings. we would expect q3 to be stronger than q1 and q2. comparable start becoming much more favorable into q3. we think the markets looking out into the back half of the year, mainly starting to look at the turn into earnings growth, lines up a bit better. watching your segment earlier about the summer sizzle. we tend to think the areas of the market suggest the best value still going forward so things like technology, consumer discretionary, industrials, and even health care we think make
the most sense right now. we would fade utilities and telecom. >> thank you for joining us on the markets of wells fargo. we are going to leave it there. we have headlines crossing by the decision on apple. anti-trust regulators ordering ireland to recover up to $14 billion in illegal tax benefits from apple. this is about 40 times bigger than the previous known demands from it will european commission, 14.5 billion. now apple is going to have to pay back to the irish government. >> this is significant the size of this
on "squawk box," but that's it for "world wide exchange." have a great morning. s rst tim. gilman: go get it, marcus. go get it. .coach giln used s cash rewards credit rd from bk ofri to earn 1% cash back everywhere, every me. at places like the batting cages. ♪ [ crowd cheers ] 2% back at grocery stores and now at wholesale clubs an3% back on gas. which helped him give his players something extra. e cash rewards credit ca from banof america. more casback foththings you buy most.
good morning. news just breaking. the eu tax deal against apple asking the country to recoup billions in unpaid taxes. and sweets deal turning bitter. mondelez dropping bid for hershey. chocolate maker stock dropping shortstoply. plus cnbc obtain add copy of hillary clinton's daily schedule as secretary of state and eamon jabbers red all the pages. he'll tell us what he learned. it's tuesday, august 30, 2016. "squawk box" beginning right
now. >> good morning. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm kayla tausche. along with joe kernen. becky and andrew are off today. news crossing the wires. european yoonon ruling against apples tax. ireland gave apple illegal benefits worth up to 13 billion euros. shares of apple in premarket are down 1.5%. analysts had expected the fine could be anywhere from $200 million to $19 billion. really anyone's guess here. we have julia chatterley standing by in brussels with more. what can you tell us? >> reporter: as you quite rightly said, the estimat