tv Fast Money Halftime Report CNBC September 6, 2016 12:00pm-1:01pm EDT
what if the fed hikes anyway? with us for the hour, joe tear ra noev dia, stephanie link, josh brown. josh, you tell me. another ugly read. non-manufacturing backs up last week's manufacturing report, disappointing. jobs report below expectations. what happens if the fed goes anyway? whams to stocks? could be an adjustment. look at the history of surprise hikes it's different from the history of well deteltelegraphe hikes. i don't know if it's necessary. a whole cult of commentators saying, about time. we finally have this over with. plus, you have no idea what the accompanies statement will be, if they were to go and then say, well, this was really a dovish hike or whatever it is we're creating. look at the big picture, scott. u.s. stocks mixed. the phangs are going nuts. same old same old. new all-time highs for face bbo,
google a lot of the action is overseas even so. look at emerging markets. eem up 1 po.7% on the day. >> and since august. best run since august. you have to pick your spots. if you're going to wade into this market with all that lies ahead, you better pick your spots wisely. >> i think you're right on that. i think there are pockets of the economy doing well, and pockets that are not doing well. clearly manufacturing has had struggles for a long time and i wouldn't get too wrapped up in one month's ism services. see how it plays out. wasn't a good report. see how it plays out. >> not firing on all kricylinde >> autos, housing, still strong. even peaking, still xrorong. consumer, consumer sentiment and confidence, a big part of our economy and those are the things i point to. kniss not a perfect environment by any means. i do not think the fed will go
in september, but i think there's a shot they do it in december. especially if we get better economic data points, but tell you this, all comes down to earnings. i think earnings get better, a better dollar situation and oil prices recover. >> joe, the financials aren't betting on the fed anymore either in september. >> no. >> weakest performing group of the day. >> yes. and rates ticking lower. >> on that ism number, lower. >> second consecutive lousy ism number, the services part of the economy looks like it's struggling. also keep in mind while we had the manufacturing recession, it was the service s side of the economy that kept us going and everyone pointed towards that. now the weakest report on the services side since february of 2010. that puts the fed, i think, back on hold. tonight san francisco fed president williams will speak. very important. but also the composition of the tape tells you something today. utilities are up over 1% today. energy is up 1% today.
gold and silver higher and the japanese yen, safe haven asset higher again. to me that telegraphs the possible correction could be coming. >> industrials down today. about one-third percent. get right to steve liesman. as a matter of fact, he is cnbc senior economics reporter joins us on the phone. steve, i appreciate you calling in. i guess the question now is whether thei ism leads to a schism on the fed. i don't no what to do with this number backed up by the other one? >> hey, way to turn a phrase, scotty. a good way to put it. to me, this is a disappointing number. it's a number that's going to be taken seriously. as was discussed in light of the disate appointment in the ism manufacturing. i will say a lot of the commentary i read this morning sees this more as a blip, not quite so much weakness in the ism services or the service sector as indicated by this number. a lot of folks saying, hey,
running hot. not surprising that it slowed down a bit. the idea was that the economy more of a vacation in august than people might have expected. but ultimately the trouble is that if it is a fluke, both number was a fluke, there's no data really to correct it between now and the meeting. the fed has to go into this meeting with concerns about the rick around the economy, without real center of the strength of the economy. even though the gdp tracking numbers are running at 3%, even though that jobs number last week was good enough for the fed to hike, but only in a vacuum, in context of other data that's out there, scott. you have to be concerned that other things are weakening and the fed, which has shown time and again is going to be patient about raising rates up. >> sure. >> to a fault according to some. >> i go a step furter saying how does a self-described
data-dependent fed possibly move in september with this datta? they just cannot. >> well, i can tell you what the hawks argue. the hawks argue vociferously, no matter what happens with the data we are far away from the emergency rates needed when this economy was literally on its knees. i guess that's figuratively. in any event you know what i'm saying. that there's no reason for emergency rates, but there's some argument for -- the hawks would say. i shouldn't spend too much time on this. that's not when the center of the board is pt center of the board, cautious and depend on the on unfortunately the near-term data to make shethese sweeping decisions an raising rates. >> correct me if mime oi'm wron. this debate will pick up among pundits we hear from if the data
continues to be weak, they wouldn't mind adding a tool back to the toolbox if they had to cut rates and some point, if they believe that a recession is closer rather than furter away? >> so that argument, scott, makes sense, if you don't think about it too much. but what the debate on that idea has been, which makes some sense, is, you don't want to put the economy into recession so that you have the tools to be able to take the economy out of recession. so this idea, i'm pretty sure, carries very little weight. i think op you are teportunisti correct. climb back positive rate possibilities when they could but couldn't do it in a way -- scott, the market trades on four things. think about it when it comes to the fed. it trades on whether it will go up or down. but it also trades on whether it thinks the fed will make a mistake going up or down. and sometimes when you see the market react in a certain way,
for example, if the financials would fall on good economic data, the market would be pricing, you know, is the fed going to make a mistake. what you're seeing is a correction back from when the market thought the fed might be tightening, and i'm looking at the fed funds, up 17% for september and notice that december has fallen under 50%, and i don't think that's wrong. i think in and around the 50% threshold for december makes sense to me. there's a retail sales data coming. the thursday before the meeting. i don't think that can put the fed back on track. i looked at data going forward. nothing is strong enough now between now and the meeting to undo the stink of the ism manufacturing services report. what you see is what you're going to get -- >> in other words, and i'll let you go, steve, the liesman indicator says the fed is not going to move in september? your best guess today as we have this conversation is -- >> yeah. aye know that's a reversal,
because i argued the jobs number was strong enough to do it but i can't make that same argument in light of weak manufacturing, and weak services right now. even if the numbers are a fluke. >> good to hear from you today. thanks for calling in. >> hello from north field, minnesota, my friend. >> hope you have a -- a fish on the line. steve, talk to you soon. steve liesman, joining us, of course, on the phone there. all this as adam parker at morgan stanley raises point on the s&p to 2300 from 2200. goes up 100 s&p points. >> a rich valuation. could it get there? year-end target. that sounds to me like he's thinking we're going to have some form of -- >> not this year. not year-end '16. a 12-month forward target. >> 12 months from now. sure. >> first blush i thought the same thing. looking for 100 from now to the end of the year. no. 12-month out target, revise that every month, good thing, and everyone -- >> strategists have been slow to hit the trigger on raising their
s&p targets. he becomes at least in my recollection one of the first now to come out and say, okay. stocks, i believe, can go higher, and maybe significantly there so between now and 12 months, where, you know, we've heard from lee cooperman, sat on this very desk, don't expect too much from stocks going forward, because the environment. >> no. because of -- >> valuations are. >> sure. if you think earnings are at a trough you can make a case to being bullish. by the way, we didn't dlthrough the past weekend, mmp & a. using capital and balance sheets, trying to find growth and using strategic vision to build on that growth. it we have like a 2% gdp. >> not on their own businesses. >> buying back a lot of stock. they are increasing their dividends on a rapid rate. now you're seeing a lot of m & a. these are the kinds of are things want to see corporations doing and i think it's very
positive. will we get the earnings to recover, to be seen. i believe given again oil prices recovered. interest rates remain low and favorable. i think you can see a higher earnings picture going forward. >> before you get to that, though, the question, is the market in a vacuum from now until the middle of october when you have earnings season? >> no doubt. >> where you have to be a little concerned about, you know, a potential modest correction. >> all right. talked about the financials. one of the worst if not the worst performing sector here at noon said to, and new at noon, the battle between comerica and csla bank analyst. with is now releasing a new note this hour calling for change at the top of the dallas-based bank. good to see you again. you've called for this change before. this is your sort of doubling down? >> well, no the in as clear terms as we do in our new report. we're saying in our report, let's make a deal, there's three doors for investor.
dour o door one, current restructuring we think the plan adds $3 per share. it's good. door number two is a takeover adding $17 per share. that's a lot better. but door number three is really what's new, and what we're saying there is, if comerica doesn't sell the bank by next year's annual meeting, then it's time for a new ceo, and we think a new ceo could add $7 a share, which is better than the status quo. so what's new here is, here saying, the restructuring is fine, but the other two options are better. >> stock hasn't done badly over the last six months. done quite well? >> the outperforms this year coincided with increased shareholder frustration and shareholders voice concerns as you recall, scott. wep attended the annual meeting and spoke up. surprising to see so many others speak up. >> i think i remember the day you tried to ask a question on the call, and they didn't even entertain you. didn't take your call?
>> that wasn't as the annual meeting. absolutely you're right. the july earnings conference call announced the new restructuring plan i pressed star one. i can do thumb exercises, do it better. definitely in the q and they definitely decided not to take my call. that's bad governance and a microcosm of the broader corporate governances at comerica. >> mike, who buys them and is it realistic to expect someone to buy them before the next meeting or next annual meeting? because it's challenging, environment now, and companies aren't equipped to do a lot of m & a. >> especially in the regents. >> right. >> regional occurs? when's the last time? >> the pace of bank acquisitions picked up. stephanie you mentioned, additional ceo competence. i think the time is ripe for more bank acquisitions, and it's fine. if comerica doesn't want to sell, that's fine, but the ceo has been in place 14 years. if you look out of the s&p 500 there's five banks that have
been, where the ceos have been in place 10 or more years. >> i would say that's an asset. >> the other four banks ceo in place ten or more years, stocks gone up three times, eight times 13shgs times even 72 times in mnt bank. three, eight and 72 times stock price appreciation compared to the 1/5 decline at comerica under the ten you're the last 14 years. this isn't being an activist or agitator but holding people accountable saying this is capitalism. why if you underperform 14 years do you still have a job? this is the way comerica would and does treat the other 9,000 people that work at the firm. so i see comerica as a test case for the broader banking industry. are we holding a top bank executive accountable and we can talk about the financial crisis, everything that went wrong, but a lot was misplaced incentives as i testified to congress. a lot of it lack of accountability at the top. here we are in 2016 going into
2017, let's hold the people especially top bank executives accountable for under performance. >> from a cyclical perspective, is this the right time to sell a bank? think where the industry is as a whole, comerica really has no say in. probably the most regulation they've ever faced. right? i think you'd agree with that. and then where rates are, these banks are not nearly as profitable as they are at a better point in the cycle. wouldn't you wait and want to sell it when things are going better and possibly get a better multiple? >> look, they don't sell the bank, that's fine. less just get a new ceo. i think that's what in the shareholders' best interest. but an acquirer would pay for the upside to comerica given sensitivity. the issue, only one of two banks in their self-defined peer group that failed to achieve they're call for capital in every one of the last eight years. they've need add better plan b. maybe the environment gets
bett better, maybe it doesn't. it's up to the ceo to be the top contingency planner at his or her firm and he's failed to do that. >> bow big. morgan stanley, buy, jpmorgan, buy, positive on all banks. that i mentioned there, anyway. what happens if the fed does not hike rates this year? does your opinion of the financials change, if we remain in this extraordinarily low interest rate environment longer than maybe we think? >> this is still the opposite of what we saw in 2006. 2006, everybody, you know, collectively, the market was bullish on financials and they blew up a year later. i see -- exaggerated pessimism about the bankings and over the next year, record capital, record liquidity, resilience in earnings. saw it in the second quarter after brexit. banks did fine and another day where utilities are up and banks are down. yet the banks had more utility-like outcome. look at jpmorgan.
3% dividend yield. it rates stay lower longer, that dividend yield looks attractive. >> lebron james of banking? you brought a prop, too. >> we have the bobblehead of lebron james the banker. remember, that -- >> send that to jamie. >> remember, jpmorgan, lebron james of banking because good not only at offense in terms of gaining market share, also at defense answers being resilient during difficult times as they proved after brexit and a lot of banks have preserven. >> is jpmorgan the one you have most confidence in terms of earnings expectations? realistic, or bank of america, a lot more costs take out of the system and have a higher earnings power? >> it's moving in the direction of jpmorgan resiliency and jpmorgan through that during the financial crisis, had a 3% dividend yield, layer in buy back, 6% cash back yield. by the way, taking banking industry's dividends plus buy
backs adjust to the rate environment, that yield is the highest in history. start talking in terms of the highest in history you know there's value there. comes down to, when do you recognize that value and, scott, less rate hikes certainly that the absence of a positive in the short term, but we only have one rate hike built in by the end of next year. we think we're being pretty conservative. >> comerica is like dennis rodman or where would you -- [ laughter ] >> not the lebron james. >> those are really good performers. got to come up with a -- decide to find bank performance now. have to pick nba players. >> i smell a new segment coming up. >> i do, too. >> talk to you soon. thanks. >> my mayo. reamike mayo. reached out to comerica. did not respond back. and a supplier of automotive products and services have resumed trading being halted on news majority shareholder icahn
esht prizes purchased the rest. one cent above the current trading price before the halt of $9.24 but represents a premium of 86% above moguls closing share price of $4.98 in late february. this offer $9.25, just $2.25 above icahn's original proposal. and icahn appearing at cnbc delivering conference in one week from today on september 13th. for more in230e go to deliveringalpha.com. still a lot ahead on the "halftime report" today. >> announcer: wall street. waiting and watching apple. the company has a big event tomorrow. we could get a first look at a new phone a new watch and much more. will it then invigorate the stock? that's next. plus -- a postlabor day sale for retail stocks. the sector going out of style. is it a good time to try some of these names on? more "halftime report" with
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advisers joined us and said he was worried about the company. >> my concern is the, apple's best days might be behind it, because there's nothing to replace the iphone, and so it's a company that generate lots of cash but may be a small company in three, four years. we may put our money elsewhere. >> this, steph, being the whole best days are behind it question. we mentioned drexel hamilton, brian white, his target, $3 million 56. i mean 186. >> expectations are low for the iphone 7. being a bridge to the iphone 8, the game changer. expectations have come down enough for apple. numbers came down. gross margin expectation is down pretty big. i like the expectations story, the gain, right? >> how do you reconcile that with a chart jim cramer says doesn't look good? does not look great? >> it might not look good. 12 times or 12 times x cash the stock is attract ish and there's
value there. have patience and probably get clohesser to the iphone 8 to perform. >> sock up nearly 20% since may. >> maybe year forward? >> if you pull the chart back, youing the chart back into last year. >> can't pull it forward. i don't know what he's looking at. >> up 20% since may and i actually do believe that a lot of the expectations for the iphone 7 are priced in. i think that's what has happened over the last couple months. >> for sure. >> looking for an allocator from a money manager many stand point, look at technology, such a strong recovery in old technology. you have the names like cisco, like oracle, like sectitexas instruments. those of names i want to own and act an a technology replacement for apple. in years' past you didn't have that's oh, by the way, facebook. 128, moves higher, possibility for international expansion, and absolutely at 128 i'd buy it.
>> when was the last time you went into an apple product launched as big as a phone is, it's the bread and butter for the company, where it's like ho-hum? people don't care. the bar is so low going into this event in ways i don't even ever remember going for the marquee product? >> that's my point. expectations are low. not a game change perp iphone 8, or might be called the 10, will be much more meaningfully of an upgrade. >> is there a chance people are, their expectations are too low? >> could be. i would say at this valuation, sure. >> apple has gone 325 days without making an all-time high. what it had in place was a persistent pattern going back to late 2014 of higher, of higher -- of lower highs. in other words on each rally it didn't quite get as high as it had before. that speaks to the pessimism surrounding the stock really
since the 6. what you'll see here this week i couldn't tell you. everyone is talking how controversial they might get rid of the headphone jack and not enough of a change on the form factor. okay, fine. what the stock is telling you here is that it's got solid support at the 200 day. it now has a, a price above its 50 day. and i don't think that the chart looks quite as bad as what some people are saying. i think the chart actually looks constructive for a stock where -- >> i think people take a look at this chart and maybe other charts that look better. maybe look at facebook with a breakout, the other fang stocks you mentioned and those get a lot more favor than apple? >> sure. the fang stocks are -- facebook's trading, what, 60 imti times, a difference between facebook and apple. forget about, tune that out. focus on apple for apple. not a lot of anticipation going into this. not a lot of hype. you're paying a discount to the market.
paying a discount to tech even paying a discount to mother hardware names and a lot of things that could go right so -- on the 7 -- >> parts for am, interesting. a report last week, low volume day, week, sold off. great quarter, raising guidance. doing a special dividend. the company is going to be gaining market share within the iphone. so doesn't matter how much they sell. they're actually sell are more into the company itself. a name on weakness you want exposure to. >> remind you as well the number one ranked tech analyst, toni sacconaghi will join us tomorrow ahead of apple the highly anticipated event. let you know what they thinks counting you down. that's tomorrow. there he is. tomorrow on the "halftime report." jpmorgan thinks mondalez represents a sweet opportunity now, and jeffrey says, now's a time to buy gilead. we'll talk about those names ahead in "the blitz."
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coast. trading virtually flat on the day, 15 or so points. s&p, small move. nasdaq following suit. sue herera with the headlines. >> hi, scott. what's happening at this hour, everybody. an iranian military vessel came wirth 100 yards of a u.s. military ship in the central gulf sunday. two u.s. defense officials telling reuters the vessel forced the u.s. ship to change course in a maneuver they described as unsafe and unprofessional. gathering for a welcome dinner at the asean summit in laos. tensions are expected to be discussed. police say nine black lives matter protestors locked themselves together on the runway of london city airport. the protest halted flights for six hours helping to cause major headaches for air travelers. and at least one home and 600 acres charred by a wildfire burning in northern california.
the fire is only 10% contained, and it threatens about 300 structures. a mandatory evacuation order is in effect for the area. all right. that's the cnbc news update this hour. back to you. >> thanks. trader blitz. good year, buy over deutsche bank what do you read? >> interesting call, a stock tough on investors. right-sized balance sheets to the point deutsche things they could return 900 million to a billion to shareholders maybe in the form of increased buy backs. it's been down because there's concerns that the auto cycle peaked but worth remembering that 80% of goodyear's business is replacement tires. not new cars. so this one could probably get into the 30s i think. >> steph, mondalez, jpmorgan underweight, unrelated to oreos. >> sure that one wasn't for me? >> you can comment if you'd like. believe me, i did a double take when i saw that. >> they have reduced fat oreos,
very good. >> duff stuff. >> you and my daughter. so jpmorgan, overweight rating, restructuring story here. margin upside and if you think the dollar stabilized, 70% revenues outside the u.s. in merging markets. they have superior growth. stock lagged. i like this, i like kel locke, kraft, heinz, on a basket of these. m & a will come. and can analysts stop upgrading gilead? it's too cheap. not one single sell on the stock. everything price target, $104. zero reason to go in and buy gilead today because of the note. on the other side, buy iogen, b to hold, confuse you more, raising price target. >> i like amgen. >> okay. >> gilead is cheap.
have to do an m & a. a big deal and doesn't seem to be coming. >> cheaper all the time. jon najarian couldn't stay away. while he'll join us live from the pits in chicago. unusual activity today and it's in a security company. plus, retail is moving lower. number of big stocks are in the red. there's a look at the board. other bargains. on that board. talk about it, next. announcer: "halftime report" with scott wapner is "the" place for market-moving interviews. >> you don't call a company a sewer because the company made a mistake. >> announcer: real money -- >> we are short both tesla and solar city. >> announcer: -- real debates. >> people think that globalization has hurt businesses. it's not. it is technology that's hurt businesses. >> competition is a good thing. i don't want to go back to a single marketplace. >> announcer: the most profitable hour of the trading day. >> i love this show! all i do is get to tweet about this show! i'm on the show. this is like the greatest moment of my life! >> announcer: the "halftime report." weekdays at noon eastern. ins ..
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down. a pioneer scott sheffield is here along with the man taking his place at ceo pioneer, and they keep making money below 40s? we'll going to find out. and we're going show you the robots one major retailer is testing to help customers find what they want. scott, the other humans. back to you. >> thank you, brian. see you in a bit. kate rogers with a market flash. >> watching dow transports un r underperforming in the broader market. ch robinson, delta and southwest. transports actually up more than 5% year to date. back to you. >> kate, thank. haven't talked about transports much. guys? >> airlines are ugly. just ugly. many tried to buy them. >> including lee cooperman, who was here and many others on the show. >> i don't see it. >> as bad as airlines look and act. >> right. >> rails act very, very well. >> just tell me, then.
why are airlines acting so badly? people keep saying they like them? >> airlines couldn't even do well when oil prices were going up. they fell, stocks didn't do well. overowned gipping of the year. whereas rails underowned. much easier comparisons in terms of volumes better in the second half of the year. why the rails are doing well. airlines i think -- >> two different thing pms right? one consumer travel and the other is the shipping of goods. they're in the same index in terms of looked the at at transports but not a ton to do with each other day to day. so if you just take the rails, look, manufacturing, industrial, state of that part of the economy, you're off a very low base. >> a trade on the airlines? break it down. >> airlines, you need europe and you need non-zika, and you have zika and you have a europe, the big capitals are europe that people do not want to fly to and spend their time. no matter what you want to say
or people talk about looking through the valley, right now it's weighing on these shares and i don't think you get signals from the market or share prices that that is stopping anytime soon. >> also in the airline industry, understand you need to change the model for the business flier. need to begin to cater more to the business flier. you're having right now the advent of private aviation drawing those business fliers away from them, becoming a problem. they need to address it. >> joe terranova flies commercial no longer. >> i basically said that. >> unusual activity in the online security space is next. retailer getting beat up today pretty good. running through that sector next as well.
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welcome back to the "halftime report." our resident options expert jon najarian tracking big moves today in an online security name and he is doing it from smchica for us. doc, what do you see? >> judge, goldman and citi i believe both upgraded the stock middle of last month, and over the weekend barrons put out a positive piece on symc. is a ma symantec. now it's up over 7100 contracts, at that october 25 strike, judge. run them up pretty good, and
they're looking for more upside. new 52-week high out of the stock today. so apparently everything's great over for online security and symantec, the article said they see at least 25% upside in the barrons piece i cited. >> my number's right. three moss up 44%, already blasted off? going to go even higher? >> 25% more is what barrons said over the weekend. up 13% in the last month. 3% last week, judge and making about a 2% move today. so i'll probably be in these calls maybe up to three weeks, these are october 25s and i love the upside here. >> doing stuff in your portfolio with us, too? >> yeah. i told you last week i really wanted to jump in with plank, because under armour shares i thought were just too cheap. today i got the excuse, because those also hit the volume wasn't as extreme as in symantec, none
the less, under armour shares acontractive. unchanged this morning virtually this morning. bought it, added it to the portfolio. loved buying that one just a buck or two off the 52-week low. >> bailed on tjx, though? >> yeah. tjx didn't treat me so well, judge. i was in it ahead of earnings. earnings came out. the stock sagged, and didn't look like it had a lot of upside in the short term. on the other hand i got plank's company, like i say, two bucks off the 52-week low. >> buyer and seller sitting with us at the table. >> jon, the right environment especially after this morning. the services figure that came out. you're going to see the consumer trading down, i think, going back to the discount retailers. i think a little false sense of security in the month of august that maybe we could upgrade the shopping experience, and i think you agree some of the economic data is pointing towards, wait a second. go back to freeality.
tjx for that as is dollar general. >> dgf, dollar general, big sell-off as well. i say i know where consumers ask been speask -- have been spending money. those with kids like we have, under armour all time, all the day. i like the stock. 52-week low or near it, decent value. >> doc, appreciate you doing that for us. by the way, steph, you keep talking about consumer. you like the consumer? what do you make of these trades here? >> i like pockets of the consumer. i sold out the rest of my tjx today. they're at peak margins, tough comparisons, a whole investment cycle that's yet to kick in and a very well-loved and represented stock. tj, great company, great story. rather buy in low 70 if i could. flip side, macy's nordstroms hammered and easy comparisons. valuations are realistic and
reasonable. good dividend yields and restructuring things happening at both of them. so those would be the names i would look to add to if we see continued weakness. >> this weekend i was in baltimore, in the under armour store. josh will love this, of course. in the under armour store amazed at exposure for the women's side of the store, and everything that you seemed to like, myself, i'd see a pair of sneakers. wow. i really like those. women's sneakers. the colors, the presentation. all favored. that side of the store. i didn't realize under armour went that -- >> women's sneakers? >> i picked out three pairs, but unfortunately they're women's sneakers. >> where's he going? >> a very competitive space. >> where are your sneakers? >> they're not underarmour. is the pc back? we'll debate it next. it's our "call of the day." t they dd thst shopopxperiees. 're yourustomers
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timing's important. comcast business knows that. that's why you can schedule an installation at a time that works for you. even late at night, or on the weekend, if that's what you need. because you have enough to worry about. i did not see that coming. don't deal with disruptions. get better internet installed on your schedule. comcast business. built for business. bring you a quick update. earlier on this program clsa bank analyst mike mayo making his case again why coamerica bank needs a shakeup or takeover. we have a response from comerck. the company saying it is well positioned to drive enhanced shareholder -- well-positioned to drive shareholder value as we continue to provide high quality financial services and build lasting relationships over the past six-month period our stock
price has increased by approximately 22% and is up over 11% year-to-date. let's do our call of the day. welcome all of you once again back to the "halftime report." intel is at a 52-week high. ever core raise the price target, what do we think? >> they're going to be right. the stock is going higher. intel is not a pc play. they are in every segment of semiconductors you want to be in. and they're increasingly running into or going to have a big confrontation at some point with nvidia, which is the one that i own in this space. they're in deep learning, machine learning, a.i., you know, self-driving cars. so the more we talk about pcs, the more we confuse what's really going on. intel is a play on data centers, cloud computing, everywhere you want to be. the stock has gotten above 2015 resistance convincingly, short-term maybe it's a little overbought rsi at 74. on the next pullback if you're not long the name and looking for semi-exposure, i think intel is as good as you get. >> problem is data center
business. expectations have been high, company guided for double digit growth in this particular business for a couple of quarters, slash years, and they haven't been able to deliver. so if you're buying the stock here at a new high at 16 times forward estimates, you got to believe the data center can actually accelerate and that's a big question mark because the company has not been able to do that. so i like the story. i actually sold it though because i took my gains. i would be happy to buy it back at 30 or below, but i think here at these levels it's a bit vulnerable. switching gears, alumbar nu -- aluminum dropping to a new level. >> that's right. aluminum prices falling in august continuing the decline in september. jeff kilburg, what's the story here? >> we're looking at china. we're focusing on the biggest consumers as well as the biggest producer, jackie. if we look on the production side a little bit of a 3% drop in production, so trying to stabilize prices off of these lows, but look at the consumption. we focus on the exports.
we've seen a 7% drop in exports and that suggests china is consuming a lot more internally. so therefore we think these prices will stabilize and move back in the uptrend they've seen in 2016. >> do you agree with that, bob? do you think we're going to stabilize, potentially go higher? or do you think when we're on a decline like this there's room to fall more? >> when we're on a decline like this, there's room to fall more. i think jeff could be right in the short-term. i'd love to sell it close tore 1650, but the overall trend is down. the imf has china's growth steadily declining all the way through 2020 down to below 6%. china consumes the most, produces the most, russia's producing more. i'm looking for 1585. it's going to find some support around that 1626 level, but i'm looking for 1585 some time in the next month. >> all right. gentlemen, thank you. we'll continue the conversation online at 1:00 p.m. eastern futuresnow.cnbc.com. we are talking to the god father of charts, and also the commodities king, dennis gar
gartman, don't miss this one kicking off september with a bang. >> jackie, thank you very much. we'll do today's final trades and do it after the break. t e tdmerie stevtherhan mang ovst wh are you workingn? stevtherhan mang ovst t me su. ay ou need in one ple and ts agegyosualize at data informrmfoytionse.ay, ol. sivewhat up, tim rangof atockex. on cond.u n s t aicip findheerfectift out of trillis comon
facebook. >> continues to move higher. stay with it. buy it. international expansion. there are so many places to go in technology, and it goes back to what we talked about at the beginning of the show with apple. that's the problem i have with apple, you can find other tech opportunities. you couldn't do that in the last couple years. >> i'm with joe on that. i'm looking at google, facebook and amazon. the moves these stocks are making in an otherwise quiet tape, we're talking about if you have a lot of money to put to work, you're a fund manager, you sat around over the summer with a larger than average cash position which we know many did, you can get invested quickly in these large liquid tech names and i think there's some element to today's action. >> and real quickly, nvidia, which you called out, approaching $63 now. >> you did some portfolio moves as well in your own right. >> yeah, i did. i took a profit in pool, stock started to stall out and turned lower toward that 50-day. i'm running out of time. i can't sit on names that aren't going the right direction for the purposes of this particular contest.
i added workday, which the stock is bananas. i'm either going to be really right or really browrong. it's extremely volatile. very expensive but keep eating earnings. battleground, 10% short interest, but whatever. i'm in there. another name i own is a little more tame, curtiss-wright, basically an engineering and industrial play. they're in aerospace, defense, energy, et cetera, et cetera. the chart is pristine. really just a flawless uptrend. i think both can work. >> all right. we had our eyes as well, steph, on energy today. oil is down again, or at least it was. >> we've been waiting for some big m&a. and i don't know if this is really big m&a, but eog is leader in the industry and space and basically buying about $2.5 billion of yates, a private company, new mexico, delaware, different regions. not just permian, which is interesting. this increased volumes by about 5%. i'm glad this is a leading company trying to use its
balance sheet and stock too to grow and to expand. i think that's very positive. i would have thought by now exxon or chevron or ox si would have done the same, but they haven't. this is why eog gets a premium multiple to the group. >> joey, what do you think? >> i think exxon and chevron will and both up over 1% today as oil is lower. i think steph is right. we've talked for a long time about the possibility for deals permian base and shale survivor so to speak eog clearly one of them. i massively screwed that trade up. i got out of eog in the 80s. i know you stayed with it. great job. it is a big deal $2.5 billion. and look at others the rrcs, pioneer natural, do they respond and make an acquisition? it's a good thing and loosens up what has really been a tight deal market in that region. >> what's the headline going to be tomorrow after apple introduces this phone, steph? >> oh -- >> tell me what the stock price does, i'll tell you --
>> you're a headline writer. >> you're a headline writer. >> if the stock is higher, they'll say apple wows them with new device. if it's lower they'll say apple's out of innovation and tim cook's the worst. >> i just don't think it matters for the stock though. >> me either. >> we'll be watching and i know all of you will be as well. i know you'll be watching power, which starts now. i'm melissa lee, here's what's on the menu. false start, official and bubble some words donald trump used to describe the economy. where he's pointing the blame. and inside the numbers of $27 billion pipeline deal. and hitting the car lot to see what's really driving red hot auto deals. "power lunch" starts right now. put your motor in. i'm brian sullivan. here's what's happening at this hour. stocks slightly higher deeper into the day. despite some big deals out there overall stocknv