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tv   Mad Money  CNBC  September 6, 2016 6:00pm-7:01pm EDT

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after i say this. silver wheaton. breaking out to the upside. say it. >> hi ho silver, giddy up. >> where did that come from? >> see u yyou back here tomorro. don't go anywhere. "mad money" starts right now.si! >> where did that come from? \s my mission is simple, to make you money. there'sal a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer, well come to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. people want to make friends, i'm just trying to help you make money. my job is to entertain, educate, so call me or tweet me. just when u to give up on this market -- >> sell sell sell! >> just when you're starting to wonder what the heck am i doing
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in this darn thing? you get money falling into your lap from mergers, from acquisitions, and from incredible rallies in high growth stocks ♪ hall lieu wra >> despite concerns what the federal reserve may do, and that's something that weighs on the market every single day, the dow leaked out a 46-point gain. s&p advanced, as analysis dabbled climbed to an all-time high. the reasons? i think it's the endless merger activity. these two groups keep the market from rolling over. even when you expect after a weak employment number friday? a ton of pes millennium? or negative numbers this morning? you've got to admit the negative case does have some merit. but let's consider today's action. let's start with the blockbuster, that the giant company could snap up monsanto. listen to me, the idea that you can own a stock like monsanto
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when it could be on the verge of getting a $127.50 bid, i find it remarkable. frankly monsanto hasn't been doing all that well. prices for all sorts of agricultural commodities are being crushed, but these companies could be go ahead ahead with the merger anyway. to me it's about the ability to bet against stocks. remember unlike most retail investors, hedge funds like to have short bets on at all times. they like to wager that certain stocks of weaker companies are going to go down. if you had to create a security 245shd be going down right now, it would look a heck of a lot like monsanto. this deal is a reminder that nothing everything is based on short-term occurs, and you have to view stocks through the prism of whether it's worth a potential acquirer than buyers and sellers in the stock market. next there is the run in eog
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resources. there is a pattern that i have flagging for you endlessly, very good, very forward-thinkingsh and make acquisitions that would otherwise not be possible. eog the largest oil produce irin mostly stock to buy yates petroleum. a storied company with fantastic assets, including the western part. sure, oil is low. it got hammer last week, but this kind of deal gets eog some fantastic acreage, and it lessens the firm's reliance on the eagleford. i keep wondering what the heck when are the majors going to start fishing in the permian. but they're all consolidating the good prospects, where the acreage seems as plentiyful as it is for oil in saudi arabia, yeah, saudi arabia.
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at least according to the dean of the permian, scott sheffield, who was on brian sullivan's show today. the important thing is as so often in the energy patch, the acquirer stock is soaring. eog rocketed up more than five bucks not until lining the moves made by and the aforementioned pioneer when they did similar deals. they issue stock, buy -- acquire acreage, book, it's a virtuous cycle. the moral here if you simply thought of oil stocks, well, you would be -- >> sell sell sell. >> -- selling every one of these names, but the opposite is true. they're being optimistic in the face of lower oil prices and they're killing it. talk about the pipelines a group that's been annihilated. this cohorts long the -- bain of investors.
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two pipeline companies he endridge and spec ra get together to create the large es pipeline in the country. both companies have perfect balance sheets, they do a good job complementing each other. neither company needed to do the deal. the stock from spectra was up, but again because of the wisdom of this deal, both stocks went higher. specter vaulted 30%. the takeaway -- a left for dead sector suddenly comes alive, because two companies decide to merge. next up, no one could blame the people who sold seth, some of the best tools to quickly identify diseases, when it announced a delay in the key diagnostic device back in april. the stock plunged on a pushback.
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the company told you not to worry about it. but that was cold comfort for those banking on an earlier launch. it turns out you should have listened, because today, the cramer favor life science titan bid $53 a share for seth, who went out at $34 on friday. wow, the trigger-happy seller simply got it wrong, a nice gain. then there's johnson controls, which is merging with tyco to create the number one building efficiencies play, wonder if that deal has been consummated. meanwhile, the company lulls shedding the slower growth auto parts company, allowing it to soar. listen to what the ceo had to say about this transaction this morning? >> i think in 18 months or 12 months from now, i think what we should expect is that we will be introducing ourselves to our customers, and if you're in the commercial buildings market you understand tyco, johnson controls. together i think we can do
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something pretty special. >> it's a fabulous deal, fab lulls company, all because the execs were willing to surrender that are -- maybe you're thinking, c'mon, jim, who can find these companies? johnson controls, eeog, spectra, other than you watch the show, you might not know it, but if you watched the show, you would know it. they're not obvious, i give you that. let me come back with you at a growth thesis. when you hear the feds taking action, you don't just stand there, you reached for the companies that will do well, even if the economy slows. it's a time-honored way to invest in a drining environment. how about alphabet, formerly google, in the sweet spot of good growth. what's alphabet up lately? what have they been doing? how about cutting back on money-losing projects and funding winners. disciplined spending, that's
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what an investor want and the ceo is giving it to you. it rallied 11 bucks. how about am azen, appeared amazon hit an all-time high. how about foiblible arer facebook with a stock only now starting to react what was probably the most -- up three to an withdrawal time high, or net flex piper jaffray says is undervalued, on the sum of its parts. i'm on episode 3 of "narcos." >> f.a.n.g. is back in business. disruptive high-speed optical, telco services, or overseas with the al i baba which has doing nothing but go higher. it takes an awful lot of factors to overcome the downward pressure going into a slowing
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economy, but these companies show that only can the pull-down be stymied, it can be beaten with the right set of circumstances that happens more often than you might think. joe in new jersey? joe. >> caller: hello, cramer. thank you for all that you do for us home gamers. you make a difference. >> thank you, i appreciate that. thank you very much. >> caller: my question is about hewlett-packard inc. >> yes. >> caller: a broker called me and said that it's the stock to buy. what a 3.5 dividend, high earnings and low p.e. ratio? should he keep it our sell it? >> this is very tough. i didn't like the cost going in. i thought they could cut costs. that being said, it wasn't a disaster, it just wasn't great. i'll take a pass, and if they get the cost cutting right,
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then -- ♪ hall -- hallelujah >> caller: in may you discussed tractor company, since then it's down over 12%. is there a fundamental problem with the company or is this a buying opportunity? >> it did miss the quarter and missed in a way i wasn't crazy about, but i see -- we had a very wet spring in a lot of places, which meant bad gardening, not so great situation for a lot of the farmers, too. but that said, if you can get the stock at $80, which is just a few bucks from here, i think you'll be in good shape. all right. don't throw in the towel on this market yet. i see the issues. we're going to talk about them later in the show. with the rate hike on the table i know won't be smooth sailing, but m & a and growth stocks are
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leading it higher. it hasn't been a banner user, but as home construction accelerates, i'll tell you which ones could be refurbish your portfolio. then it's a pharmacy throwdown. rite aid, kroger, walgreens, which has the best prognosis for profits? wonder where the stock will be headed ahead of what everyone is saying will be a blah announcement? >> announcer: follow jim cramer on twitter. have a question? tweet cramer #madtweets. send jim an e-mail to madmoney@cnbc.com. or give us a call at 1-800-743-cnbc. miss something? head to madmoney.cnbc.com.
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even though houses have been doing well as of late, it's been an awful year for some of the largest players. everyone from restoration to wayfair seems to get their
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stocks completely slammed. all of which begs the question -- given how strong housing is, what the heck is wrong with the furniture space? and can any of these stocks make a comeback? let's take a closer look starting with one of mice old favors williams sonoma, along with the pottery barn, wessel many. the stock has plunged 40%. a decline year to date in 2016. this is a pretty stark reversal for williams sonoma. ever since the great recession it's been on an upward trajectory. as it built out the online business and introduced new concepts like west elm. ever since august of last year williams sonoma has struggled. first it got hurt by lingering inventory issues caught by the west coast port strike. while it seems like a temporary
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problem, for the last year williams sonoma's numbers have been pretty darn inconsistent. just with the quarter -- they delivered in-line earnings, and same-store sales growth that was either flat or down everywhere, except the very red-hot west elm division. management cut their full-year guidance for sales and earnings, citing general softness in the retail market, more cautious consumer. we're talking about home goods here. before you extrapolate from that commentary, remember the previously -- did just fine during the past quarter, which means the problem here is not with the consumer anymore or with the mall. so where does williams sonoma go from here? on the one hand they have tried-and-true brands, and they've been squuting on the nifb tore initiatives. however it's hard to believe the business will miraculously improve unless it gets busy discounting, marketing and
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offering shipping deals in order to get people to come back to the stores. selling for just 14 times earnings is actually just in line with other furniture place like restoration hardware. and pier one, training 11 times earnings, you get the picture. how about restoration hardware? how about it? this ones beloufd luxury chains with the beautiful stores and gigantic catalog has fallen from grace over the last ten months. the stock peaked at $106 just last november, plummeted down to 33 and change we're talking about a 68 decline in less than a year. in fact a few months ago restoration hardware actually hit a ten-year low after reporting really ugly quarter. some sent the stock down 20% in a single session. something has to do with the fact that before things started falling apart it was a high-flying growth stock, and when these high flyers stumble, you know their stocks tend to go
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into free fall. and unfortunately restoration hardware has done more than just stumble. the company has posted a series of disappointing quarters. a the first it seems like maybe the growth was following large numbers, but at this point it's clear there are very specific negatives. the new modern furniture line that it launched last fall has turned into be a bit of a disappointment. they rushed the concept to market resulting in major delays as the suppliers couldn't meet the tight deadlines. some led to shortages and massive wait times. in this age of snap gratification, we talk about it all the time with retail, nobody likes waiting, this is the amazon generation, even for a exquisite piece of furniture for regions that depend on strong oil prices, you know florida fallout, texas call down, sheesh, but there's another possibility that explains the weak in.
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maybe restoration hardware is losing market share. at the same time it might be reaching the end of the total addressable market. there's only so many can available to buy high-prized furniture out there. can it turn things around in the ceo gary friedman recently bout a million worth of stock in the mid 20s, which turned out was pretty much the bottom. i do not think this man who has been on the show several times bought the stock idly. if it pulls back, where gary does insider buying, i would be tempted to buy right along with him. what about the wayfair? multiple -- we've had them on the show. not just wayfair, but also joss & main, birch lane. it seemed like wayfair could do no wrong, a series of -- but in 2016, it's fallen into a rut, down 15%.
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when wayfair was red-hot, the analyst loved this company. it kept blowing away the estimates, and it seemed to be a major disruptor. finally giving consumers a play to bide a wide variety of quality furniture on the web. lately the company has begin missing estimates on the bottom line, reporting wider than expected earnings losses. these misses drove hop an essential part of the bare thesis that despite its impressive revenue growth, wayfair is a long way from being profitable. but it was the latest quarter that sent it into a tailspin. causing the stock to collapse 20% in a single session where these furniture stocks suddenly a crucial part came under pressure. stock got hit with a series of analysts, downgrades and estimate cuts and made us think maybe online isn't where people want to buy furniture. what's next for wayfair? look, i think the company can
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beat the estimates, and gave a lowball guidance. wayfair is spending a fortune to build out their international platform along with the distribution system. long term they had pay off, but short term are costing -- on top of that, i keep wonder if maybe furniture is we have those things that's better sold in person. you want to lie down or check it out, right? you know what made me think this, marvin ellison, he called out furniture as one of the company's strongest categories in the company's lates quarterly announcements. you know what? basically saying, look, you probably watch to try it on before you guy. in short, i think there are too many worries to jump into a battleground name. no need to be a hero especially in the end furniture is the -- something you can't get from browsen on one of these wayfair web sites. one other thought, we like recent at home. good business model, we like the
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bricks and mortar style, as much as we don't like web furniture, but it's one to watch. even though we know consumers are buying furniture, like williams snowstormo, restoration hardware or wayfair. i recommend staying on the sidelines with these three furniture stocks until we know that they've gotten their acts together. i do bush you know what's my favorite? j.c. penney itself, because its stock has pulled back mightily from 1120, all the way down into 9 and change, almost where it was before reporting the breakout quarter. that is too cheap, people, with marvin ellison calling the shots, i then penney is the best furniture option out there. it's not just furniture, and maybe that's the secret to success in this different category. much more "mad money" ahead. i've walgreen, rite eight and kroger, but it's not just about -- one of this is stocks stand out above the rest, and
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tim cook is prepraerg himself for a big presser. wondering what you should do with the stock ahead of the company's potential new products? that's why i'm going off the charts to find out where it could be headed. it's a little surprising. is the fed station a could you from "dumb and dumber"? i'm saying there's chance that's exactly the case. stick with cramer.
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every big merger is a will they or won't they story, as in will the regulators block the deal? or won't they? that's what investors have been worried about ever since walgreens announced the plan to acquire rite ade, especially -- since the goism has gone
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aggressive on blocking deals. however, last week we got this huge development that i think make it more likely will at last be allowed to go forward. before i give you the details, let me catch you up. late last october walgreens, a stock we own for my charitable trust, offered to buy rite aid for $9 per share, saying they had appearsed the risk very carefully and would work with regulate arors to make the deal happen as soon as possible. when you have a transaction like this somewhere the largest drugstore chain is trying to snap up the third largest, so the combined company has less overlap. right from the get-go walgreens said they were willing to sell as many as 1,000 stores to get the regulators on board. there's some places in this country where there's only two
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sizable drug stores. so if walgreens was allowed to buy rite aid whole log, they would end up with local monopolies, which are supposed to be illegal. that's why the federal trade -- but it's not just enough to divest stores to prevent overlap. walgreens needs to sell these overlapping stores to a -- ready -- well-capitalized buyer that will actually keep them open and run them, because if they sell the stores to a buyer who ultimately shuts them down, that doesn't solve the antitrust problem. if anything, it makes the problem worse which brings me to last week's major development checked be what the regulators ed to give this deal their blessing. last week stated that kroger --
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kroger, the gigantic supermark change has emerged as a potential buyer that they may need to sell. if this report is true, this could be the final hurdle before the federal trade commission approves the merger. why is it so important that kroger pop you said? because like i just told you, walgreens needs to find a buyer with the financial wherewithal to keep these stores open. kroger is exactly the kind of credibility company they need with the scale to buy all the locations in one fell swoop, which is much clearer than selling on which the divested stores, selling them to a buyer that's less financially secure. believe me, this is something the regulators really care about. that's because the ftc, which is ruling on this, got burned on this issue not too long ago, and since then -- well, they have gotten more wary. the ftc got its nose bloodied by
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the albertson's/safeway merger. what exactly happened here in the ftc gave them to acquire safeway so long as safeway divested itself of 168 stores, just like with the rite aid/walgreens sale, they didn't want too much overlap. albertson's and safeway sold 146 of these stores to hagen, and the ftc gave the merger their blessing, but amazingly less than a year later, hagen filed for chapter 11, closed most of the stores they had acquired. they didn't call these stores hag-ways for nothing. they sold 29 of these stores back to al better son's which totally defeats the purpose of making them sell the darned things in the first place. there's nothing that the ftc can do, but looking back hagen was never really an appropriate buyer.
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before buying 146 divested locations, hagen only had 18 stores of its own, so the transaction increased the footprint ninefold. i say red flag. and while the employees count from 2,000 to 10,000, it became overnight five times. even worse a year ago, hagen filed a lawsuit against albertson's itself alleges that they had engaged in coordinated effort to eliminate competition, and hagen, one weeks later hagen filed for interrupt bankruptcy, and they were way too small to compete against al better son's. the ftc doesn't want to see something like that happen again on its watch. that's why, when an acquirer needs to sell off the assets, they started caring a lot more about who these sell these assets too. that plus staff shortages, i think is what's behind the amazing wade since october for
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this deal to close. that brings me to walgreens and rite 5id specifically. kroger is pretty much the opposite of a tiny operator like hagen. they have 2800, so while adding 500 location would be significant, it's not like hagen going from 18 to 164. kroger has a strong balance sheet and frankly among one of the best-run superstore chains out there. they have pharmacies, and represent a viable competitor to the merged in the areas where they overlap. with kroger potential emerging as a willing buyer, the ftc can be confident they won't look at the repeat of what happened with the al better son's/safeway deal. i feel pretty darn confident they will let this acquisition happen.
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from kkr, the big equity form and the activist hedge fund. while i think the block sales are allowing kkr has been selling stocks left to right and has nothing to do with the operation, but internal need to raise capital. especially when you consider that it's taking a licking from all these sales, yet still trades above where most of the block trades came at. guys, that's just plain -- bullish. here's the bottom line with kroger offering to buy any stores they might need to sell, and we think this might be the case, if that happens, it would be a good chance to still get regulatory approval, but walgreens is currently down nearly 15%, so even if the regulators block the deal, i expect the stock to move higher smartly, simply because it will remove all the uncertainlysh at this point you can win ever way. it's a terrific deal if the things goes through, but if it falls through, i think walgreens will buy a ton of stock, which
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should cause it to go higher anyway. david in massachusetts, david? >> caller: boo-yah, cramer. this is david from metro west boston, i'm a first-time caller. >> okay. >> caller: some argue the drop in subsequent slide of dmy was excessive given the formidable pipeline and track record. thus can we expect the positive move we saw on bristol-myers today to continue tomorrow and what is your yearend target for the best in class biopharmaceutical? >> okay. now, understand this is a european commission for actually not that big of a drug. what matters is that my charitable trust has been buying bristol-myers because it's way overdone. this is now ridiculous 9 it's true it did not work as well as we thought on small-cell lung cancer, but that doesn't mean it won't work in combination, so i think bristol-myers should be bought, not sold.
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larry in massachusetts, many time, many time. >> caller: jim, stunningly beautiful ground zero rising documentary last week. >> thank you. >> caller: sensitive probing journalism. your parents are proud. >> thank you, i thought about that a lot, because i think they would be. thank you, larry. >> caller: real quick, your central question -- can an address be a purpose? made me cry as my friend chris was on flight 11. late in july, you tweeted about cirrus therapeutics reporting a surprisingly negative phase 2 on colon infection therapy. complicated by the bad optics of management selling stock, brettaking 78% downdraft, barely stabilizing now. i listened to the initial call and read the quarterly. going forward, is there anything to look for to justify improves my terrible cost? >> larry, i've got to tell you. this was really tough, and roger
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had been on the show, seemed like a credible situation. i invite roger to come back. right now i just don't see a reason to recommend this stock. even though it seemed like such a good idea. unless roger comes back with a theory and a thesis, no, larry, but thank you so much for the kind comments about "ground zero rising, freedom versus --" all right we don't know if the feds will let the merger go through, but my prescription, i think stick with walgreens. it will be a winner either way. september is upon us. that means apple news is coming. i'm eyeing the stock to tell you if it's worth holding on to, and my view is a little contrary. full a dull jobs report, then this morning's more weak economic numbers. el'll reveal. summer is over, well, who cares, i'm back to work every day. i'm taking all sorts of rapid-fire calls. so stick with cramer! otust a ..
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as we approach tomorrow's launch of the iphone 7, i think it's worth trying to figure out what's going on with appear 8
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particularly since it's had a nice move higher. that's why we're going off the charts with the help of carolyn berolen. she runs fibonacciqueen.com, in order to get a sense of what the action might be saying? what kind of pictures are the charts saying in from her perspective it's almost more bullish than any chartist i know. let's start with the weekly chart first of all, breauxen thinks it was she knows what's gettable, because she predicted it herself. one of the biggest clues came in the form of what technicians call symmetry. this is a concept where present swings in a stock price often tend to be the same size, especially when the swings are going in the same direction, when you're looking at a
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decline, it was worth looking at the last big decline, because they might end up being roughly the same size. broden says the concept doesn't work all the time, but, in apple's indication the notion of symmetry almost perfectly prescribed where the stock's recent pullback would come to an end. just look at the stock's last big down swing going into the bottom of april 2013, that move, that was some move, right? it lasted for 45.71. now, check out the most recent down swing, which bottomed out in the past may, apple stopped going lard after 45.07 decline. pretty amazing. that's an almost perfect camp. if you follow that one concept you would have been ready to because the stock forunder u.s.
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$90, when so many were bailing. since then it's given you a nearly 18-point gain. this is the largest company in the world. that's not a small move. i mention all of this, less than a would that before it bottomed, broden recommended watching for a powerful floor of support for the stock at just below $89 based on the symmetry calculation i just gave you. she totally nailed it. apple's actual low came at $89.47, just a few trading days later. so listen up, she's got street cred. she also rolled out another favorite rules. she calls herself the fibonacci queen. a lott of his mathematics, the ratios show up all the over the natural world. and they pop um in crucial points in the stock charts, too.
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i have absolutely no ideas why this works, but there's no denying that it does work pretty darned often. how does her methodology work? she looks at the spies and durations of past swings and runs them through the prism of the fibonacci ratios. 23.6, 38.2, 50%, or 100%. the bottom levels with the stock in question might be lightly to change its trajectory. the cool thing about what fibonacci queen does, it applies to the y axis and x axis, which is time meaning she can identify key spans of time, saying a particular week. in terms of calling the bottom in apple last may, that was all about spotting a cluster of thinks fibonacci cluster cycles. they occurred in the weeks ending may 6th and may 13th. sure it started going lower and started rebounding.
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but that's all rear-view mirror. why is this weekly chart important right now? simple. broden says the largest bullish pattern repeats itself and it could trade up to -- when i first heard it, i didn't want to say it on air, 146. that's right. 146. how does he come up with the price start? she took the last big with ink that ended in may and ran it through her prism of 172.2, which gets you to the up side target of 146. she believes apple has a good chance of working over the next couple years, this is not a moon shot. as long as the stock price continues to hold above the may low of 89. if that level gets taken out this whole up trend gets called into question. that said. why she can see it climbing to 146 there's some resistance between 110, less than three
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bucks above and the long-term price target. it's nearen a resistance zone from 110.70 up to is 12 first. if apple can clear only both of those. look, it's not just the weekly chart. first of all she notes fire off last week when apple's short-term for a 46 day -- 200-day 50, cost. this is a is it starting tong longer. now broden wants to point out -- it was an intermediate low on august 30th, and she thinks the stock could bound to 111 or 114 before it counters real
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resistance. if apple can clear the resistance at 113, then brod. en thinks it could bound up. representing a move of more than ten bucks. i don't -- iphone dud, stock goes down, that's all i here. here's the bottom line -- despite the hand wringing, about it doesn't seem to have any revolutionary feature that makes it a -- apple's chart, at least as interpreted, suggests the recent rebound was no fluke at all and might have more up side going forward. remember, not too long ago, the chart looked hideous. this is why i'm always saying you should never trade apple. just own the darn thing. "mad money" is after the break. th dyn prmrmce, top you ldve..
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>> it is time. it's time for the lightning round. and then it's over. are you ready, skee-daddy? it's time for "the lightning
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round." jay? >> caller: hey, cramer, thanks for taking my call. my question is regards shares of lazard. i bought some september calls. wondering if you think it's time to ring the register. >> yeah, this isn't a good -- it's a slow growth cost in an area but not a cold play. i would at least cut it in half. you don't need to play this one. dennis? >> caller: yes, crame-god. how are you doing? >> i'm doing well. >> caller: great show. agreed move by the bird getting the first-round choice. >> i don't even have a fantasy league. >> i was looking at a faithful in my port, public storage. it's been -- >> >> no, no, 3% yield. real estate investment truth, we're going to go away from that. it's not our pick. case in texas?
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>> caller: hey, jim, i own shards of -- >> i don't know man, i'm not digging these auto part stores, even delphi, i think the auto organization is is not the best, but you do have a best of breed there. >> caller: i love your intelligence and analytical insight. wow, thank you, man. >> caller: ge. >> my big position for my charitable trust, a lot of people went crazy about it, thinking this 3-d acquisition they made, which is two companies in europe matters. it does not. what we need is big, big buyback. that's what nelson pell wants ton, who is dead right. john from connecticut? >> caller: boo ya, jim. calling about a spec stock that i opened up. lmat.
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>> we'll have to do more home work. that's the conclusion of "the lightning round." nile alt syem enthha the mke nile kid's a naral. buinkowim aly leou nile n on tt rtitythat, thatth jo erts
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can we all admit the federal reserve is looking dumb and dumber off the data we have seen, first the jobless, and
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weak service pmi from today. you have to wonder why janelle yellen offer any -- because some of this data has been stunning. what the heck vice chair stanley fisher was smoking? when he talked about the potential for two rate hikes this year with steve liesman, hey, look a the this. >> should we be on the edge of our seat for a rate hike as soon as next month? should we on the edge of our seats for more than one rate hike this year? >> what the chair said today was consistent with answering yes to both of your questions, but these are not things we know until we see the data. >> so we have to be on the edge of our seat except if we don't have to be? why on earth do they venture forth with the views in the first place, especially when it turns out the data pretty much contradicted what they were
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saying. why dot wait period, end every story. when the top two officials make the anonments you start to hear forecasts of a recession, from meal colleague who says the during goods is -- and that's a pretty disappointing. it's a bit of a head scratcher, you end up thinking what's the deal? why raise rates when the economy isn't producing jobs anywhere near the pace you want to see? what's the real thesis? that the fed has to do it ball while they have to do it, i call that circular reasons. all these seem to care about is things are smooth overseas, but brexit stopped them, before that oil stopped them, before that china stopped them. until i saw this sought, hey, it's fine, but two rate increases? no. two? no.
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i now believe the fed is going to tighten anyway and we have to prep ourselves for lower stock prices because of this weaker data. we'll get through it, though. what can you do if you think like they'll be offbase? i think you get ready for the possibility of a december 2015 type of sell-off. if you look back to that type of increase, you will see we had a short, insignificant move down, one that's barely visible, as the dollar took off, we took a header, s&p 500 falling from 2078 down to 1827 in february. i do not think the decline will be anywhere near as pronounced this time. that sell-off caused the big move down by oil. still we don't have to go on, and i think it's as good as any retreat giving the volatility index, the vix, which i meshes as xlasance is ridiculously low 12. that worries me. i know some people say this means i've become a bear. hardly. i prefer to say we have a new set of circumstances not as
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favorable to the bulls. to improve their own standings as i said at the top of the show. i also can't overlook how positive this next rate hike will be for the banks, but the s&p 500 ben at this time, about 80% doesn't benefit from a rate hike. i sea prepare for the worst by having an elevated cash position, selling into strengths. in janet yellen does -- let's say is fast to pull the trigger. you can get back in if they do nothing. having more cash and staying pedal to the metal, which is why it's the road that i want to truthful. stick with cramer. the lexus rx, rx hybrid and rx f sport. this is the rx, elevated. this is the pursuit of perfection.
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it's not just a car... it's your daily retreat. go ahead, spoil yourself. the es and es hybrid. this is the pursuit of perfection. i like to say there's always a bull market somewhere. i promise to try to find it for you. i'm jim cramer. i will see you tomorrow! lemonis: tonight on "the profit"...
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patrick: hi! lemonis: the owner of an l.a. clothing company is known for his witty designs. lemonis: how much longer do you think kanye sells for? patrick: until he becomes president. [ both laugh ] lemonis: but the way he runs his business is anything but funny. your liabilities exceed your assets. his limited product offering has put a crimp in sales. woman: you guys have hoodies, or no? patrick: not right now. lemonis: his struggling storefront has been a drag on earnings. patrick: this is like my office. this is like my home. dan: but it's an expensive house. lemonis: despite his family's best efforts... kelly: he's the little brother. we're always trying to take care of him. lemonis: ... he's too afraid to tackle the problems. this is reckless. if i can't force him to face up to these hard truths... patrick: i mean, i don't want to be, like, sitting here just...

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