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tv   Squawk Alley  CNBC  September 13, 2016 11:00am-12:01pm EDT

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elections, with referendum in italy. and i think that's going to drive more of the market volatility going forward. and i think what we've seen the last couple of days in markets, there's a lot of debate going on in terms of the diminishing returns from central bank policy and also kind of the fortitude of the banks to stay the course. >> thank you for rushing over here from the panel. appreciate it. >> thank you very much. >> dawn fitzpatrick, head of global equities and management. lot here to come from delivering alpha. i'm off to a panel. we'll be talking to the executive chairman of alibaba. right now over to carl and the gang at nyse. carl? >> thank you. good morning, everybody. welcome to a special edition of "squawk alley." i'm carl quintanilla. obviously an important day, big
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day. cnbc, institutional investor hosting the sixth annual delivering alpha conference in new york city, bringing hedge fund titans and investors together, offering their views on policy, the economy, politics and investing. in just a few moments we'll hear from elliott management's paul singer. that's a big one. first, bridge water associates making news a moment ago, talking about rates along with former secretary tim geitner. take a listen. >> when jamie dimon says to raise interest rates you think that's wrong? >> that's right. i think that's wrong. at this stage, the risks are so asymmetr asymmetric. there's no doubt you can slow the economy, world economy, u.s. economy. look at the inflation pressures, it's a horrible thing. you look at the demographics. all of those things means that the risks are so much more on the downside.
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>> with all of that seemingly appropriate, we do have a selloff today, dow down 212, pretty much session lows. s&p is down almost 30 points with horrible bredth all morning long. let's bri sort of interesting. you have to sell off, right? in this blackout window before the fed. mood delivering alpha has challenged. we have these median income numbers for 2015. are we too skeptical or too bullish on the overall environment right now, jan? >> i think we've actually been edging a little too bullish. that's probably the reason markets are struggling in the near term. we got to a point where 57% of advisers were suggesting they were bullish on the outlook. that's peakish levels.
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longer term there's still a very healthy degree of skepticism, right? short-term moves, we get really bullish. we got up to new highs in july, but longer term it's really hard to get a very strong long bull case in the face of tremendously slow economic growth and a fed that is inching toward tighter policy and a lack of belief that other central banks can really continue to accommodate to inflate multiples. >> when you say it's hard to find a long bull case, you mean long the market or long term? >> long term. >> if so how long term? >> longer term. we're so many years into this cycle, right? the economic recovery has gone on since 2010. the market has been recovering since 2009. you get long in the tooth. investors start to get nervous. at the same time, monetary policy getting tighter, investors are a bit nervous. we're ultimately going to fall into recession the next three to five years. and how do you position for that?
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we've already seen such a long-term bull market. how do you continue to adopt that longer-term trend? that's what's creating this sort of skepticism. >> couple of different ways to look at that, though. one thing is to say things overall are going to get worse. you know, the consumer isn't feeling these numbers that we see from 2015 that suggest, you know, income up 5.2%. pretty good. another way to look at it, the consumer is going to feel it soon. there's all this pessimism around the election cycle. politicians are trying to drum this up. really things aren't that bad and it's going to show up later. which way do you lean? >> cash story is so important. too many investors are holding cash and the fed isn't making it easy on anyone. friday there are risks to waiting too long and the next trading day, there are risks to going too soon. that's the same thing, right? that's not making it easy. for us, government yields are
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probably too low. credit still looks okay. and for folks that were teased into the fact that value stocks may be safe, that's the richest part of the market, right? that's the market we're telling folks to have some caution on. but for us, from an asset allocation perspective, the fed is not making it easy. in the near term they're going to go this year. in the longer term they're not going to go as much. that's the key for things like the dollar, merging markets, which make us bullish now. >> when you say they're going to go this year, you're not banking on september or are you? >> some people were saying same old jets over the weekend, same old fed. the fed has always waited a quarter when they -- when folks think they want it to go. look at last year. september wasn't really 50% pricing. some people were saying yes. they pointed to december as going. i think that's what they do. they go in december, not in front of the election.
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but ultimately, that level of fed fund rate, pace is going to be lower. >> are you on board with december? >> we think december as well. there's no justification to go in september given the weakening in data and labor market index is the single most important thing. >> that won't stop people from talking about it. >> absolutely. >> if janet yellin were a real leader she would cut off the mikes right now. should she be stifling this commentary? >> like greenspan before her. he never allowed this to happen. it's confusing for the markets. next trading day you had somebody offset what was said before. way too much information. fed got themselves into this by publishing all this transparency, dots, inflation forecasts. i think that's put them in a tough situation. >> we asked for transparency. we got t i can tell you that. >> unintended consequences. >> for better or worse.
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gina, phil, thank you for that. good to see you. we continue to watch the markets. dow is down 211. we are getting breaking news. we'll go to steve at delivering alpha for that. steve? >> thanks very much. release from the atlanta federal reserve, carl, saying deni nis lockhart will step down in february 2017 after nearly ten years of service, known as a centrist, a guy you would follow to get a good read on which way the fed would be going. also one of the noneconomists on the bank. atlanta fed saying they would announce a process to talk about the process to replace him some time in october. carl, this is a very interesting time for the federal reserve to be replacing a bank president in that the bank president specifically have been criticized for lack of diversity, lack of minorities as well. although there are more women now than there have been in the
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past. as you remember, the fed up organization in jackson hole as well as others throughout the country have criticized lack of diversity specifically on the president's side. not so much on the governor's side. we'll be watching this process carefully to see the extent to which the atlanta federal reserve board of directors who ultimately picks and then is confirmed in washington, who ultimately picks that candidate, how they respond to the criticism. carl? >> really quick, steve. given all the attention we give to the atlanta feds gdp forecast, is there anything special about lockhart as a fed official? >> well, i mean, you can say that this gdp now became available under dennis. the fed has always been covetous of its models. the atlanta fed was one of the first ones to really put it out there and say here is what our tracking model forecast looks
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like, a development that's been followed by other federal reserve districts. i think lockhart was special. he's also special because he's quite a fly fisherman. my guess is that's how he's going to use his time. >> it always comes back to that, steve. >> as you know. >> any more breaking news we'll come back to you. when we return, mossberg is out with his definitive view of the iphone 7. why it leaves him impressed and annoyed at the same time. secretary lew, his keynote, plus top money managers. pan dora gets a deal with major record labels. we'll get details on that. red across the board. dow down 220. s&p now 2129. hey gawhat you got here? mobile trading desk b boyoys a
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we are watching shares of pandora down almost 2%, assigning direct license agreements with two of the three major music labels sony and universal, plus labels and distributors, still negotiating with warner, hoping to sort that
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last one out in time to launch a new app and some services at the end of the year. this, of course, comes as the company is preparing to launch a multi-tier on-demand service that would compete with the likes of spotify, title, apple music and the rest, guys. this is important to pandora's business model, gives them more breathing room on their radio side with ybut also gives them l to work with in selling subscription services. pandora one subscribers who are paying $4, $5 a month up into these tiers. the music industry is hoping they can. >> 20% of the shares outstanding are still being sold short. tim westergran has given himself till the end of this year to turn it arne. he has a few steps to go. >> he does. i visited them a couple of weeks ago when i was out on the west coast. genome project is this labor that gives them an interesting,
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intellectual property advantage, the way they break down every single song along these multiple metrics. they do a really good job, in my opinion, with that piece. they're up against giants. apple, amazon, google. i mean, you -- you couldn't have a more david and goliath type story. not a surprise that they're short. apple orders for the 7 and 7 plus have come. both mobile and sprint have commented, saying preorders are up four times in sprint's case than last year's. this, on the day that io s-10 is slated to be released as well. walt mossberg has tested apple's latest offerings, weighing in with his review. he joins us now. the dean of tech reviews. walt, this is tricky. last year with the iphone 6s,
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you said, yeah, pretty good update. you don't necessarily have to update. if you have the iphone 6 and you're happy with it. with the iphone 7 you seem even more hesitant. we tend to compare these phones year to year. most consumers don't necessarily do that. how big an upgrade is this? who should upgrade? >> well, i mean, i think -- look, they've -- it's an excellent phone. it was an excellent phone last year. it was an excellent phone the year before. it's pretty much the same exterior as those two, as you know, john. they've actually added on the inside a whole bunch of significant improvements, which i won't run through all of them. battery life, water resistance. more memory at every price point. but what really hangs me up on this this year are two things. one is that we know, or at least
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they're strongly hinting that a big, radical, awesome resign of the kind that we have been used to coming from apple for years is coming next year. the reason it looks the same this year, they wanted to take two cycles to do something fantastic. so, why would you want to buy this one when you might want to wait till next year? the second thing is -- and we've talked to death about this. but they've removed the headphone jack. for a lot of people, that's a pain in the neck t means all the headphones and ear buds that they own will no longer work or will require an adapter. they're trying to move the world to wireless. they've invented their own wireless. i'm wearing one of them. it's this ear pod thing. >> very fashionable, just to have it in one ear.
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>> that's the point. it looks kind of like a plastic earring. be honest with me here. >> well -- >> and if that's your style, that's cool. for all i know, maybe it will become something everyone will want to wear. it's going to cost $159 and give you two hours of phone talking time between charges and you'll have to put them back in this little case to recharge. they recharge quickly. >> here is my issue with the way apple has approached this headphone socket thing and the wireless thing. i appreciate that they've got this w1 chip to make wireless work more easily with future versions. they're introducing this new chip and taking the headphone socket out at the same time. it would have been nice if they introduced it a cycle ago and then take it away, the headphones, once they've proven this out. to do both at once, isn't that
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kind of jarring? >> i completely agree. i'll add a third thing. why do this in the year when they don't have a big redesign of the outside? in other words they're asking you to buy a phone that looks just like the last two. and i want to give them their due. there's a lot of advantages. it still looks like the last two. and, as you say, they're taking the headphone jack and trying this wireless thing all at once. it seems like phasing those things might have made more sense. but we'll see. the market will decide. as cnbc knows. >> as it always does. walt mossberg with his view of the iphone 7. thank you so much for joining us. >> take care. it's been a busy day at delivering alpha. as you know by now, secretary geitner, secretary lew, ray dalio of bridgewater and now
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paul singer will talk in the key note this afternoon, right about lunchtime, in fact. let's get to delivering alpha and mr. singer and kelly. >> how serious is the situation today? >> i think we are in the middle of close to a 40-year experiment in how leveraged can a system be and in how many ways. the global derivitives market is something like $700 trillion. of course, that doesn't exactly represent a proxy for risk. between the fact that 75% of that is interest rate derivitives and that in 5,000-ish years of history there have never been interest rates remotely close to where we are now causes me to think that this
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long down trend in interest rates, which now have something like 30% fixed income trading at zero or weirdly below despite the fact that it hasn't worked. they say it has worked and what they say about it, meaning central bankers and those who apologize and those who support and cheer on central bankers, they say, well, growth hasn't really picked up. but in the absence of what we're doing, it would have been a lot worse. i don't think that's right. it's possibly right as far as it goes. what i mean by fiscal, i'll explain. fiscal policies that would restore levels of growth significantly higher than those
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described by ray dalio and tim geitner, restore that to the developed world in the absence of fiscal policies in tax regulation, trade, education policies that would deal with the consequences of technological -- in the absence of those policies, sure. monetary policy is the only game in town. but eight years of effort ever-declining rates and ever-increasing radicalism in other monetary policies have not created a sustainable, accelerating uptick in growth. what they have done is created a tremendous increase in hidden risk, risk that investors don't exactly know or have faced about
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their holdings. and i think it's a very dangerous time in the global economy and global financial markets. >> and by way of reminding people as well of 2007, when i read in julian tutt's account, you sat with the g7, correct, and told them of your concerns about the market at that point and said we look at a lot of these exotic mortgage instruments and look what's happening and think the banks are ultimately going to have huge problems and they're overleveraged and we want to warn you about what will happen. geitner and others were in the room, as i understand, and sort of said okay. so, even for people today, who might have heard your warnings before, would you say now we're at a point like in '07 when that index was cracking, when you see bond markets cracking? is now that point? is that enough to warn people today like you would have wanted
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to warn them back in 2007? >> a comment or two about that time and that episode. it wasn't just myself and jimmy chanos. i permanently went to germany because we had several relationships in the finance, it was practitionors that had a deeper understanding of where the financial system was in terms of risks.
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the second thing that struck me about that is the amazing arrogance of the policy makers. they didn't listen. they treated us as if we were ignorant children and, of course, they didn't do anything. neither did the german policy makers, parenthetically. but after the crash, it's all been one way. the emergency action following the crash despite the fact that central bankers, including, of course, the fed, had no idea of the risks that were building, had no idea of the vulnerability of the financial institutions to the confluence of these risks, the structured products, real estate boom all in sort of a self reinforcing dance, they had no idea about that and so, to me, the credibility of the fed
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and the treasury, but the fed going forward was severely challenged. but the immediate aftermath of the crash policy was appropriate, reduce interest rates sharply. stand ready to supply liquidity in the midst of a crash. well, the crash period, you know, occurred over a period of its most intense phase, in a period of weeks or months. by the middle of 2009, it was time for a pivot. and no country in the developed world -- and i'm talking about japan, europe, the uk, the united states. no country actually made the pivot to the other policies that could make the economy -- that could restore growth, that could cure the structural impediments
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to growth and bring growth back to something close to the previously experienced levels of growth. i believe that -- i strongly believe that it's just not the case that the developed world -- let's talk about the united states -- is limited to an assumption of 1 1/2 or 2% per year real growth going forward. and i certainly don't believe that if it is limited it's because of demographics. >> so you think it could grow at 4% to 5%? >> no, but something more than this 2% that america is stuck in. >> are we possibly at that pivot point in the u.s. now, fiscally speaking? should donald trump be elected president? >> well, i don't want to speak
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about politics at this juncture. in two months or so, we'll know the answer to the -- which envelope or if both of these people are still on the stage at that time. but what i do believe is that pro growth policies are policies that could and would increase growth. for example, i believe it would have been vastly different for the growth rate of the american economy and the problem of underemployment and unemployment and the reduction in the labor force participation rate, which is every bit as important, perhaps more important than the headline unemployment rate, had mitt romney been elected president. there would have been a number of policies in tax regulation and things that i talked about a
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couple of minutes ago, that would have generated a higher rate of growth as distinguished from the continuation -- >> fascinating discussion with elliott singer, talking about the credibility of the fed, various policies that he believed might have taken us -- and might still take the economy to a higher growth rate than it currently has. arguing also that the argument from policy makers that things would have been worse had they not acted as they had, in his words perhaps is not exactly right. dow continues in the selloff down 234. when we come back, a lot more from delivering alpha, including best ideas panel from some of the top names in investing. more on apple, some preorder numbers are out. secretary lew making headlines on eu taxes and more. don't go away. at b
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good morning, everyone. i'm sue herera. mike pence holding a news conference after meeting with house speaker paul ryan. calling david duke a bad man but again refused to call him deplorable. >> donald trump and i have denounced david tubing repeatedly. we have said that we do not want his support and we do not want
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the support of people who think like him. >> german authorities say three syrian men believed to have been sent to germany last year by isis were arrested in raids today. the three travelled to germany via turkey and greece, the route frequently used by most migrants to europe. attorney general eric schneiderman announcing a settlement, resulting in probes of the children's online privacy protection act. tracking technology that illegally enabled third-party ventureders to track children's online activity. let's get back to "squawk alley." carl, back to you. >> thank you. seema mody. >> european stock extending their losing stock to four.
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after the international energy agency cut its forecast for both this year and next. where we're seeing the action, iea taking its toll on france's total among "the biggest loser"s. reversing course, a bit of a balance, yield slightly above zero after hitting a two-month high in yesterday's trade on the germany front. we have a monthly survey showing german economic sentiment was unchanged in september from a reading of 0.5 in august, two points below consensus. the results also come in the wake of disappointing production and export data after the brexit economy. inflation holding steady in august at 0.6% despite the rising cost of imported raw materials following the uk
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referendum. number of economists see that data leaving the door open to a potential rate hike from the bank of england which, of course, meets on thursday. meantime, british pound currently at 1.3 against the u.s. dollar. now speaking of the uk, brexit minister says parliament may have to ratify legislation needed for uk to leave the eu. parliamentary committee davis saying it's unlikely the uk would revert to a world trade organization rules after exiting the eu. on the topic of brexit, bridgewater's ray dalio and former fed secretary tim geetner said populism raises potential concern for markets. back to you. delivering alpha is under way in new york city. earlier today, jack lew making news with his comments saying eu is imposing a retroactive tax on
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apple. take a listen. >> the action of the european commission took is out of the framework of normal tax policy. it is a retroactive tax that reaches into another country and other jurisdiction's tax base in order to make sure that a firm pays its taxes. we agree with them that firms should pay their taxes. when it's u.s. income, we think that tax should be paid in the united states. >> meantime, iphone 7 reviews are out. and the verdict is -- well, it's pretty mixed. lip to the 7 may be wise for some. usa today says if you can hold out, you should. senior writer and tony sakinati. demand is four times the previous iphone. is that proof positive, that this will be a really big deal
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for apple? >> i think you have to keep those data points in context but they're clearly positive. first, there are only two carriers. secondly, all the u.s. carriers are running very aggressive promotions where you can trade in an old phone and get an iphone 7 for free. we didn't see these kind of promotions last year. so the comparables a little bit different. all that said sprint and t-mobile might account for 5% of floebl volumes for apple. after the first four days to have those up three times on 5% of your base is certainly encouraging. it's early days and the promotions are different. >> and because we won't get much sales data from apple, it will be important to deduce from these. we just spoke to walt mossberg about this. the appearance isn't that different. the big features are the camera and things inside. if people can't see the difference, can't feel it, will that be an obstacle for them? >> yeah, i have to say i liked
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his one earring look with the single ear bud. it's interesting that the biggest difference is one that's getting a lot of sort of amusement and puzzlement, which are these wireless headphones or ear buds. i think the biggest thing going for it is that its patrys don't explode. that doesn't bode so well. as mossberg said earlier, i think people are holding out for what going to come next year. early numbers, just like toni said, they're from t-mobile, sprint. it doesn't account for such a large percentage and customers are basically be asked to sell their souls for another two years to do this trade-in. not sure what to make of the early numbers quite yet. >> given that the 6s update wasn't that huge just in terms of the growth that apple saw
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from one generation to the next, is the bar maybe not that high for the significance of the 7? reviews said if you're happy with the 6, you don't have to upgrade to the 6s. the reviews say if you're happy with what you have, you don't have to upgrade to the 7. people's phones are getting old. might we finally get that bump from the upgraders whether there's that review or not? >> we could. that's the multi-billion dollar question. phones that are used and have been resold. that install base is 50% higher entering the iphone 7 cycle than it was two years ago, entering the iphone 6 cycle. certainly the install base is much bigger. our belief is over time you should have more iphone unit sales. it's tricky to know how many might upgreat this year and how many might wait.
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today it's about 80% are upgrading. the dynamic of the composition of who is buying phones, today it's all replacement. five years ago it was largely first-time buyers. >> i have to say i'm almost embarrassed to admit this, but i am still on an iphone 5. i will be upgrading, but it's not necessarily because i'm that excited about this new phone. i totally fit into that demographic. it's embarrassing aas a tech writer. >> she has a point. that leads to my follow-up. why is it that people upgrade to the 6s or se instead of the 7? any way you have of calculating that? >> as far as apple is concerned, people buying new phones is good for their business. whether they upgrade to a 7 or iphone 6s, the margins are
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likely pretty similar. the plus models tend to have better margins. the revenues are a bit better on the iphone 7 obviously because of the higher prices. but for apple and for the investment community, it's really number of units sold. and i think apple has increasingly tried to provide alternatives for consumers, whether it be the se, one-year-old phone or current model phone. that's going to be the dominant driver of its economics less so the myths. >> legal battle to come between apple and the eu. treasury secretary weighing in today. he's starting to use apple as a carrot for tax reform. sure it's a consumer-facing company. it has household name recognition. do you think it will work? >> i think it could, actually. i think it's really interesting that, you know, apple, which we used to look at just as product
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innovation, right? that's where it was trend setting. now the attention has been much more on apple versus the fbi and apple versus the eu. there's still a lot that remains to be seen. i think it will be a trend-setter in terms of tax reform. so, yes, a lot could happen just because of what apple has sort of started again. this time around it's not on the product innovation side, which is kind of funny. >> to be continued. michal lev-ram and toni, thank you for joining us. wells fargo announcing big changes for retail bankers. the stock is taking a hit. we'll have details. plus, delivering alpha with the dow down 248. we'll be right back. the launch window. we have to be very precise. if we're not ready when the planets are perfectly aligned, that's it. we need really tight temperature controls. engineering, aerodynamics- a split second too long
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coming up today on the half time report, we are live. jim chanos will be our special guest. plus the man who beat the s&p 50015 straight years, bill miller gives us his stock strategies today and we'll have advice for many top and successful investors today with the markets under significant pressure from right here at delivering alpha. we'll see you in about 20 minute s or so. can't wait, guys. see you in a bit. >> thanks so much, scott. >> meantime, secretary jack lew kicked off our delivering alpha
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conference with a strong warning to eu. steve liesman did that interview and joins us with some highlights. good morning, steve. >> jack lew did not mince words, calling it retroactive, outside the framework of normal tax policy and also warned europe keep its hands off what he sees as essentially u.s. tax revenue. >> we can fix a broken tax code, make it so our companies don't feel like they have to leave the united states to put their income overseas and we can fix our broken infrastructure. what i don't think is right is for tax authorities in other jurisdictions to reach into our tax base and to remove the ability for us to execute what i just described. >> lew said the controversy, should motivate u.s. lawmakers
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to amend the tax code, which has one of the highest rates among the developed world. he also commented on wells fargo employees opening phony bank and credit card accounts, if bank prosecutions need to go further than just monetary fines. >> we have made clear, we don't believe that anyone is too big to jail. it's up to prosecutors to decide how you pursue the criminal charges. it's not up to regulators or policy makers. what i can say is that the pattern of behavior that we've seen here is something that needs to stop. >> lew said the case shows the value of the banking format known as dodd/frank created the agency, and why dodd/frank should not be weakened as proposed by the republican nominee for president. lew added it's a wake-up call
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that inside corporation culture and compensation matter but would not answer directly when asked if a company should claw back compensation from executives who oversaw employees conducting questionable activity. carl? >> steve, thank you very much for that. great stuff this morning, by the way. >> thank you. >> at delivering alpha. the selloff is affecting the market capital at various banks. we want to get you a market update fr update. >> jp morgan takes the top spot from wells fargo, very big problem with regards to its sales practices. $237.7 for wells fargo. two of the biggest banks in america switching spots with regard to who is the biggest with market value. back to you, kayla. >> wells fargo had taken that a
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couple of years ago from citigroup. wells fargo announcing it will eliminate all sales goals for retail bankers effective january 1st after the $185 million settlement with various regulators for allegedly allowing employees to open up to 2 million accounts customers never wanted. the senate banking committee plans to hold a hearing on wells' sales tactics. shares of the bank on pace for their worst day in almost four months. jim kram ee eer will have an exclusive interview you don't want to miss on mad money tonight at 6:00 pm eastern time. in december, i sat down with stump a stumpf about these issues. here is how he responded then. >> we had thought potentially that wells fargo had dodged much of the enforcement actions that
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faria actions coming out of the doj. now we're hearing about potential enforcement from the occ and san francisco fed over cross selling, which has been a strong point, bright spot for wells fargo. i know you can't talk about the case specifically. but talk about the culture at the bank and whether you think that there needs to be more done to solve that issue. >> first of all, i am proud of our culture. i am proud of our people. our whole business model and the reason we get up in the morning to go to work is serve customers, help them succeed financially. when they do well, we do well. and everything that we do every morning is a wind up to make that happen. so, what's good for a customer is good for us. we draw very bright lines around that. >> draw very bright lines around that. that's what he said then. we'll see what he says tonight, carl. the report was the occ and san francisco fed pursuing the investigation. san francisco fed was not part of this settlement. the question now is whether there is still any investigation out there that's still ongoing.
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>> we'll see what cramer can get out of stumpf on "mad money." close to session lows here now. dow down 252 points. dow down 252 points. 33 points off the s&p
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alpha, as we have, but also talking about whether brainerd offsets rosengrin and who we pay attention to as the fed officials are now done speaking. >> it's not so much they're disavowing brainerd, but i think there's a growing anxiety that the central banks may be out of bullets. that the bank of japan, for example, is going to have to expand its mandate to start buying other products. same thing is true of the ecb. i have been do you feel forever about september, and i think the markets are still doubtful. you can see that it's still around 20% or so probability, but that having been said, the fed looks almost determined to go in december, and that's concerning some people. you can see that the yields are creeping up. the ten-year is up above 1.7. this is a little bit trying. secondarily oil is already under pressure after the close. we're going to get the api
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inventory number. the feeling last week that the big drawdown that we saw was based on hurricane hermine and that tankers were afraid to offload until after the storm had passed, which meant that without new supply we drew down an enormous amount of land-based inventory. there is fear that you could see maybe a four or five million barrel jump in inventories after the close. >> because last week's draw was exaggerated. >> by that storm. after the storm left, the tankers did unload and replaced. >> what's the psychological level that is important for oil to hold here? >> i think probably around 43, and we may see a push towards that if i'm right about the big inventories after the close. >> big jump in the vix up above 18. any cause for concern there? >> i think people are sensing after having no volatility for
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nearly two months volatility has come back in. i think they're afraid that you can wind up with a surprise here. maybe from the central banks. you're going to get japan next week and we'll see where we start moving on this. it does look to me like they're not out of bullets, then they're certainly straining, and it's going to be a bit of a problem. i would keep my eye on the yield and see if that's going to cause further pressure. >> finally, when dalia reiterates his long-term opinion on the debt cycle, are you convinced? >> he is an absolutely brilliant man, but i'm not as convinced that it's -- what did he call it -- a beautiful deleveraging. doesn't look so beautiful to me. maybe beauty is in the eye of the beholder, but this looks like a struggle. >> art, thanks. art cashin here. a lot more from delivering alpha, and back in just a moment. don't go away.
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the best ideas panel. bill miller is out first with several ideas, and for that we turn to dom. >> generally bullish. you can see there he is speaking right now.
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miller is long-term -- therefore, his first idea long the s&p 500, short the ten-year treasury note. also, he says this is more of a call long-term on treasuries. stock specifically, he says valiant. it's now one of our largest positions. we think valiant is completely different as a company. slow growth, especially pharma should generate a lot of cash. also his last pick. amazon.com in a unique spogs. like facebook and google, they're attacking the ad markets. consumer markets ten tooiz times that size, and that amazon should grow 25% to 30% in the next few years. long s&p, short treasuries. valiant is one of the biggest positions, and amazon uniquely positioned to grow 25% to 30% over the next few years, guys. back over to you. >> really interesting ideas out of bill miller. thank you for that, dom. the action continues at delivering alpha later on this afternoon. joe cy of alibaba will talk to cramer. cramer will hold a back and forth on owning sports teams in this environment. then, of course, the keynote
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this afternoon with becky quick, steven schwartzman of blackstone, finishing things up with scope wapner and icahn. big fan ahead. >> what happened to alpha? >> let's get over to d.a. and "the half." guys, thanks so much. welcome to "the halftime report." i'm scott wapner life today from cnbc. sir sixth annual delivering alpha conference today in new york city. carl icahn to ray dalio are sharing their ideas right here. with us for the hour joe terra nova, josh brown, and steven weiss. markets, as you know, are having a very difficult day. the dow has been down about 250 points. dow and the s&p looking at their four out of five down days now. there's the dow down currently 246. the s&p and the nasdaq and the

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