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tv   Squawk on the Street  CNBC  September 15, 2016 9:00am-11:01am EDT

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we want to thank today's guest host former honeywell chairman and ceo, and harvard business school professor, gentlemen, thank you both. it's wonderful to see you. >> thank you. wonderful to be here. >> folks, that does it for us. make sure you join us tomorrow. right now it's time for "squawk on the street." ♪ strike it up, this band is going to play my tune ♪ ♪ strike it up good thursday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer, david faber at the new york stock exchange. busiest day of the week for macro, retail sales, wholesale inflation, philly fed, we're not done yet. we'll get to all that. europe mixed. bonds are reacting to mostly disappointing data here at home. apple shares up more than 9% this week. iphone 7 models sold out around the world.
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credit suisse upping iphone estimates and earnings. wells fargo being investigated by federal prosecutors. the latest on the controversy facing the company and what its ceo told jim earlier this week. if you want to watch nfl football tonight. apple shares aiming for fourth straight day of gains up more than 9% so tar this week. company announcing initial quantities of the iphone 7 plus have sold out worldwide ahead of tomorrow's debut in stores. the same goes for the smaller iphone 7s in jet black. also credit suisse boosting estimates for both this year and next. it's led the dow for two straight days. after all that misery having been added in march of last year. >> tim cook came on "mad money" when the stock was at 93 and said, listen, it's not the end of the world. nobody believed him. said it was a desperate act. 20 points later doesn't seem all that desperate. i think that what's selling --
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we all have our checks with these. we know sprint came out very publicly. we know t t-mobile came out publicly, this is a very well selling phone, what we keep hearing is the same thing the "new york times" said, it's faster and has a lot more storage. and those are what people turned out to like more than the bud, which some people don't like. >> people want to say uh-oh, production issue. >> is it that? or is it demand issue where it wouldn't make sense to be able to satisfy -- >> look. in the end you never know. but one thing we do know is if you are skyworks solutions which has the most intellectual property, $7 per phone, and you see this thing selling out. these companies are not like, hold it, wait a second, get 100 seamstresses together and put together some sweaters. these places can turn it on in a
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second. everybody has the same abilities these days to if you get a phone call from apple you don't say, listen, tim, i'm really jammed up this weekend i'm making samsung -- no. he's like, okay, we'll work 24/7. an important client you tend to work 24/7. when i was at goldman sachs, i tended to work more for my bigger clients than the people who i was losing money on. strate strategy. strategy. >> good strategy. >> they'll be able to make all the funds they want. they'll meet the demand. >> it's been a good strategy to own the stock just over the last week. >> why is that? >> it's had a very strong performance. >> is it when you look at the notes you all these people with buy -- i call them faux buys. >> you did nice technical work last week where technician said it held may low in the 80s. that was a signal it could be headed i think our target was in the 140. >> yes. and i'm glad you brought that up because this is a stock, when you have a stock this widely held, there's more than just the input of the phones, more than just the input of the analysts.
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the technicians play a role because it's such a retail name. the whole thing was it would never go over 110. if it went over 110 to change the picture dramatically. we're not chartists, david, my work with you the last 20 years never impressed me as a chartist. >> no. >> but there are people that just panic. they panic. like saying own, don't trade at 93, i would see hedge fund guys in restaurants saying you idiot, tim cook, come on, and like not going to make the playoffs, whatever. guys, relax, sells at eight times earnings. it's going to sell at eight times next year's earnings because earnings are going up. >> we'll see. you mentioned the verizon story versus t-mo and sprint, two carriers who haven't had it for as long. >> no. >> and not in -- >> and i think a percentage of their overall base was a smaller number of iphones than had been
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the case at verizon and at&t. some wondering if there's a take here from verizon anything that can be ascertained from the hard work. >> i worked on that yesterday. when mcadam was on "mad money" in february at the super bowl, he said he expected demand to be much stronger than people believed for the 7. and sales are consistent with what he said. >> okay. so there's no readthrough then to the subscriber bases of verizon or at&t. >> absolutely not. people want to make that readthrough because people are still fighting this war. doing calvary against tanks, but no, verizon is completely consistent with what was a very surprising comment by mcadam saying that the sales are beginning to be much stronger than people said. two things he said, one, we're going to buy yahoo. no one listened to him then. and the other is that he said,
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well, look, what's going to happen is sales are going to be much stronger than people expected. so, i mean, if it's hiding in plain sight, he said these things, they turned out to be true. >> stock's been a little weak lately. maybe on this but also of course given the prospects of a fed rate hike, dividend paying stocks and verizon certainly -- >> i totally agree with you. i think att was actually very -- i was surprised they were less promotional. you know att well. they don't impress me as being really promotional guys. >> no, not overly. not overly. certainly not compared to mr. ledger. >> well, no. mr. ledger's you know, i don't think there's anyone more -- well, there are guys running for president that are. >> in the times today for robert allen. >> that's right. >> at&t in the 80s and 90s. >> and had to deal with a lot of the government. >> some of the early deals there, yes, that's right. >> but att i think when you dig
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down with them are happy with the sales, perhaps not more happy than our friends who are a little more promotional. just have to make calls on this stuff. reporting. you've taught me that. >> it does help. >> meanwhile, federal prosecutors said to have begun investigating wells fargo's sales practices that led to the bank's $185 million settlement with regulators last week. published reports say u.s. attorneys offices in manhattan and san francisco are conducting probes and have sent subpoenas seeking information. of course we already know they're going to face senate banking and elizabeth warren next week. >> here's the way the process works. consumer finance, the protection organization, basically says, look, there's a lot of wrongdoing. and if you're a u.s. -- >> only after that read it in "los angeles times." so it starts there. >> but the way -- there's always a great mystery about the way they work. a lot of friends from law school, we'll talk about my law school experience later in the show, who work u.s. attorney what happens is a shocking process. they read the newspapers and they pick up the phone and they
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say i want to know what's going on. i mean, john stumpf said on "mad money," listen, we basically made public to the regulating authorities all the people who did this stuff. now, you could say, well, let's find that smoking gun john stumpf sending a letter. no, you're not going to find it. i don't think there will be a smoking gun, if there is it would surprise me. but the government -- they read the papers like us. and, you know, you think they read the papers and say i'm not going to pay attention to this? come on. call the consumer bureau and said did you have anyone who you know did criminal work. >> right. does any of it add up to beyond public -- >> headlines that really wreck a reputation. >> okay, yeah, but do they? >> no. >> do they? >> no. i mean, the government -- if someone -- >> it seems to come and go. >> right. the government would tell you we make a lot of phone calls. we do a lot. if there's a subpoena, then that's a little different. but even a subpoena doesn't necessarily mean criminal. that can be -- now, justice department is typically
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criminal, but may not bring -- all i'm saying if you go back in time and you saw that the justice department was investigating j.p. morgan and citi, okay, and investigating bank of america, you might have thought there was going to be criminal prosecutions. could you have been more wrong? >> absolutely. that's a great point. >> could you have thought? there was attorney general of the united states and mr. west coming after these guys. and did you see any criminal? that's the top dogs in the country. >> this on the eight-year anniversary of the bankruptcy of lehman brothers. >> right. and remember arthur anderson. mike cherthoff did go hard on that one. >> that certainly figured into some of the thinking of many who followed. >> yes. >> after the crisis. >> and put out of business. >> prosecution or lack of prosecution. but specific to wells here and what they're facing and the continued focus that will be on whatever it was really happened there in the breakdowns, what does the board of directors do in something like this? >> and at what point does
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buffett have to say something substantial? >> i think buffett should because it's opaque from the point of view. he doesn't have to do anything of course, but opaque from the interview with what john stumpf told me. look at the board, there's a fellow quickly former ceo of deloitte who's very powerful. who can stand up, so to speak, is the way we look at it. there are a couple of what i regard as people who are big in politics but not necessarily banking. mr. pena in politics, on a very important committee. they have a corporate responsibility committee and they also have a committee -- an audit committee obviously everyone has an audit committee. steve sanger ray from general mills on that. odd ones, second guy who ran -- two rock guys. classic rock guys. >> right. >> i mean like stone rock guys. it's kind of an odd -- when you looked at the board did not have your typical -- woman major
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general from the air force. i mean, there are people in that room who could say, can i please find out what happened. but it's not the board -- it's not there's no rex tillerson's on the board. rex tillerson meaning a ceo of a major company who does not play for dinner. >> right. >> but there are a lot of there who might think are in government who could raise questions. >> rule one, typically on a board all you need is one strong voice. >> the deloitte guy, the ceo of deloitte, former ceo. >> yeah. >> not a guy that i would necessarily want to, hey, you know, cross sell hurt anybody, no. serious guy. serious guy. >> and finally, i'm sure you've read, for instance, doug cast today asking whether the bank ever deserved a premium valuation and whether that now continues to be deserved. >> yeah, i read doug. real money pro. look, they were doing ten accounts per person, which is amazing. they dropped a little bit when they -- they'd actually been saying they were doing a little
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softer cross sell. but the fact is, they own 30% of the u.s. mortgage market. whose mortgage is wells? are you going to go call wells and say, listen, i want that mortgage i pay you -- i want to switch to astoria. >> i've had no issues. >> no. >> they've been perfectly good. >> it's a little sticky to get your stuff. >> yes. >> when you're one-third -- they've made a lot of acquisitions. you're not going to be able to say this company didn't know what it was doing. they did domestic, they didn't do well. they're not whales. they have a good business. and that's worth something. it's worth something. >> it's worth $35 billion. >> it's got more than 3.5 yield. >> when we come back, twitter gearing up to stream its first nfl game tonight. jets/bills, a lot at stake for the company. we're going to fill you in, take a look at the premarket and breakdown all the macro data we
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breaking news on industrial production. let's get to rick santelli in chicago. rick. >> well, carl, this is the eighth read of the year for this
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data point set, production and utilization. down 0.4 industrial production which means it's a tie. we've had four negative numbers for 2016 and four positive numbers. if you look at the utilization rate, 75.5, a little less than we were looking for. and that follows sequentially 75.9. so definitely not the type of number we were looking for. we look at the long end, continues to move higher. we're back over 170 in a 10, whether it's lack of confidence in central banks, the retail sales data, or is it just a continued move as fresh longs flee the long and we'll continue to monitor. but even this weak number doesn't seem to be putting a bid back in the long end of the treasury curve. carl, back to you. >> big morning. rick, thank you so much, rick santelli. it's a big moment for twitter as well as it looks to attract advertisers. the company's going to live stream its first nfl game tonight. new york jets versus the buffalo bills. twitter will show the live feed
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on its mobile app and website. of course if you want to watch it on your big screen, you can do that. >> i was going to say the 70 inch versus that, i'm still going with the 70 inch. >> yeah, i would think so. >> are you going to watch the game tonight on twitter? >> i did not plan to. first of all, i don't like tired night football. that's what we call thursday night. >> because everybody's tired. >> second, i'm not a bills/jets game is not reallies a fascinating to me. i bench tyrod taylor, i picked up the eagles quarterback, definitely a good move there. >> you can open the twitter app on your tv and you can watch it -- >> look, i do watch -- >> you want to contribute, i guess that's on your phone. >> i will be candid, i do watch football with twitter up. and i follow on my home page everyone from espn. i follow almost every sports writer. i'm not kidding. and i have, when i see a great touchdown, i do tend to say something. so i think that i will say that this is a real positive because i always watch twitter and watch football.
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>> how are we supposed to -- we've asked this to adam bain on twitter absorb maus when a lot of this is going to be logged out subs? >> boy, you're so right. i just don't know -- look, i think in the end we want to know is coca-cola going to be there, is bud going to be there, but, yes, i think it's the first natural synergy a lot of us have been waiting for. but at the same time i remember when yahoo had that tampa bay game and it was a great comeback game, that sunday morning game, and no one thought anything of marissa mayer any more than they did friday or monday. >> listen, the main focus for twitter continues to be the speculation about, you know, will somebody come calling that we haven't heard anything out of that board meeting last thursday. they have kept it very tight in terms of any leaks or anything, what was shared or what went on there. so they continue to make improvements on the platform. it's not clear they're going to get anymore maus to carl's point previously and the top line isn't growing very fast and exec
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top equals ebitda -- stock base comp equals ebitda. and people leaving the companies. >> wow. that was a big kibash. >> as far as the cord cutting conversation goes, our own boss, steve burk, said he can't get his kids to have cable boxes. >> oh, yeah. >> it's generational. >> my kids don't have cable boxes. and they watch everything -- >> the proliferation of younger people there, who has cable. do a quick survey in the newsroom, and none of them. if you're under 30. >> no, it's true. >> i have like every cable provider, i have directv because of the football package, i have comcast and i have time warner. i have verizon. >> i'm aware that you have everybody. >> well -- >> and you have different homes where you have different things. >> it's like my kids like, wow, that's why i want the buds because i don't want to strangle myself on them on the treadmill. you know, when you watch strike
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back or when you watch narcos. >> huh? >> well, you can start -- he swims. he can get the 7. you can get the watch. >> i can, that would not be good. swimming is a very -- it's nice to be away from everything. really you're in your own zone. i don't want distractions. >> you can break news. >> texting sources while you're doing a turn. >> i think i'll stay away from that. >> come on, david, you can swim and source and att numbers. >> how about reading a book? you ever do that at night anymore? just reading a book. you do. >> book, like the traditional like -- >> like an old fashioned big book. >> like when we were growing up? >> somebody said the other day, i think about all the things i could accomplish instead of being on twitter, and then i tweet about that. it's true. we'll get cramer's mad dash and the count down to the opening bell. one more look at the premarket. dow and s&p down five of six, we're back in a minute. yep.
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stirred it... mm-hmm. drowned it again... mm-hmm. and now just feel if it's cold. yeah. cool. [camera shutter clicks] [whistling a tune] smokey just gave me a bear hug. i know. i already posted it.
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♪ ain't nobody dope as me ♪ we got about seven minutes before we get started with trading here at the nyse. you want to go to sporting goods companies on the mad dash. >> i want to go -- there is like a don draper thing going on with your hair. and it's cool. i would keep it like that. >> i swear, i didn't do anything. >> no, you did -- >> i didn't. i used the same shampoo, i did the same thing i always do. >> i wouldn't change a thing. >> okay. >> it's like don budge, the great tennis player. >> yes. >> it's going right. don't change it. wow. >> no.
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i swear. nobody touches the hair. nobody. >> it's don -- i'm looking at my producer. he agrees, it's don draper. now let's actually try to make some money. >> yes. >> don draper. >> i'm having a martini while the show's going on. >> but you shaved. >> yeah. >> dick's sporting goods. this is a last man standing play i cannot believe. sports authority closed, right? and then we know eastern mountain sports had trouble. how about this, david? one of the divisions i've always hated is this galaxy golf. but golf smith, go read your "new york post," which i know you read every morning. >> yes. >> golf retailer stumbles into chapter 11. golf smith over par, always wanted to use that. this is another one where there's a lot of overlap. now look at this, this was when we started hearing about all the problems in the industry. this is when sports authority did its giant giveaway, and this is now sports authority out of the picture. and now golf smith in trouble. and you know what, david, this is going to get the old premium multiple. >> i can remember when best buy
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soared after circuit city went chapter 7. >> remember that? richmond based circuit city. >> yeah. and then not so much for best buy, which has had periods of success. >> totally. yes, thought last quarter was okay. what i really like about this is remember we thought sporting goods would be wiped out by amazon? >> yeah. >> if you have one brick and mortar player, that can compete. and this is the only place we think of now. remember, these guys, under armour, nike, adidas, and now go golf, which has been the worst. a lot of times it was double digit terrible numbers from golf. >> right. >> terrible. so i say it is still a buy. it's been a buy ever since. >> okay. >> i would stick with it. remember, all these hedge funds and guys -- closet index guys, they need to have, i said last night on "mad money" they have foot locker need to have this, they need something with earnings per share growth and dick's is the best. last man standing. you changed it, david. >> i didn't do a thing.
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you're watching cnbc "squawk on the street" live from the financial capital of the world. the opening bell in just about 60 seconds. a busy morning on this anniversary of leman's chapter 11 filing. a lot of macro. the biggest story there of course is the disappointment in retail sales, the first drop in five months. auto's a drag, but even excluding autos seven of 12 categories down, jim. >> i know. august was a weak month. i was on cracker barrel call yesterday, cracker barrel traditionally very good at the numbers. remember, gasoline down. and they basically took guidance down gigantically. did not give you anything other than, one, it's a very promotional environment. last time i looked the only guys competing them is like gas stations. and then food and home, so cheap people aren't going out as much. it was a jaw dropper. it was a very bad conference call. very bad.
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and it got people worried. >> tpi this morning, food costs down the most in three years. >> isn't that incredible? >> as we've been talking about food deflation. there's the opening bell. and the s&p at the bottom of your screen. at the big board it's allure magazine celebrating the 2016 allure best of beauty products awards. over at the nasdaq etf manager isectors celebrating recent debut of isectors recent growth in itf. >> a lot of stories out there sector specific. target for instance, talks to "the washington post" about their grocery strategy. >> i think target's really trying to find itself in a world where walmart's gotten very aggressive and amazon obviously always aggressive. target is trying to figure out what it really is. they made that deal with cvs for the front of the store and i always thought it was interesting larry merlot in the cvs call thought it went smoothly and target was much more halting about it. so are they a drugstore?
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no, they gave that to cvs. are they a grocery store? no, they're not a grocery store. are they apparel company? yes, but apparel we don't think that much of right now. target's kind of very difficult place. talk about small format, i always felt that was a great idea, but they're squeezed. the dollar stores are squeezed on the lower end, target's squeezed in the middle. there just doesn't seem to be a lot of room for anybody other than walmart and amazon right now, and a couple of department stores to compete against sears, which apparently i've been watching the credit agencies on sears, i think that's important to keep an eye on. >> as you move into the holiday season every year there tends to be a focus on the factors and on sears' ability. they've done a decent job there of finding access to capital. >> yes, always. and they always say they can sell this, monetize that. but jc penney remember on that conference call marvin nelson said we're going over store overlap. took it to a sell, northface
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limited upside northface big macy's. target again does a lot of this kind of lifestyle clothing. i'm worried about lifestyle clothing, worried about electronics at target, not a good place to go. i'm trying to figure out who target is. they do have this -- they expect more, you know, pay less. and they have to start giving us something to expect more of. and they haven't been able to do that. and i think that's the problem. >> yeah. a lot of cross currents in retail. walmart's got this fee dispute with visa in canada. they're boycotting visa at some stores up there. >> it's been a sucker's play to ever go against charlie sharf from visa. visa is a powerful company. so is mastercard. apple tan goes visa. >> it is true. it is one of the quietest $200 billion market cap companies you
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will find. not quite there. about $192 -- >> you never see charlie, but he's not a guy i would want to tango with. >> i don't know mr. scharf, but i don't want to tango with anybody. >> he would be a tough negotiator. very tough. >> we do have a deal here today at the nyse. over my right shoulder noble midstream partners. it was ten times over subscribed. >> very big yield. >> got 75%, listing here 12.5 million shares at 22.50. so they're raising $280 million. it does look like it's actually going to be higher. 24 to 26. >> have done well here, look, there's need for pipeline. i was looking at rbn today put out a piece about how inventory numbers are not really following because we're exporting the same as we're importing. we spend a lot of time on
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wednesdays -- i no longer regard as that value. the midstream companies in the pipeline business have been the best place to be for wealthy individuals to try to get that money. magellan by far the best. >> in this area hard to imagine you could do an ipo at all. the proceeds going to help pay a distribution to noble. >> but the yield's good. noble i happen to -- you know, noble's a very good company. >> is it? >> it's a very good company. and i think the one i like, mike been on "mad money" a bunch of times but noble historically remember they have some terrific assets. there's only 22 counties in the whole country right now that are profitable at $40. but noble has tremendous leviathin assets. >> oh, right. >> if they could ever get that turkey pipeline, they'd be able to disenfranchise -- >> yeah, yeah.
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>> yeah. >> mcdonald's according to reuters getting some final bids on these north asian assets. i know you've been looking at the credit suisse note. >> yeah, well, steve easterbrook hasn't been talking a lot lately. he's the ceo and he's kind of been off the radar screen. they're talking about sluggish numbers at credit suisse but reiterate 132. i think there was this tremendous kind of energy around mcdonald's and then had the not so great number in u.s., and people stopped talking about it. but the japan number's been good. i think mcdonald's is a good steady situation. and i would not sell it bottom line. i like the yield. they have a lot of cash flow. >> the two stocks we of course focused on at the top of the show are moving in opposite directions. apple up over 2% yet again. this is a very good week for that stock. >> yes, it is. >> and wells fargo nearing a 52-week low, about 45.79 right now. 52-week low 44.50. so still $1.30 above that. >> no, it's bad.
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i was looking through the stipulated final judgment this morning superior court of the state of california, they were the other party. number 50 in the other provisions stipulated final judgment shall not prohibit or bar the office or the people from bringing future criminal proceedings. i mean, it wasn't like they agreed to something and they were immune. so there it is. it's not like -- so if you're the u.s. attorney from california, you call the guy -- you call the people who did this judgment, say listen, we do want to do the criminal proceedings. who do you have? who spoke to you? who can you give up? how high does it go? so that's kind of the world they're in. but we're not going to hear it again. we're not going to hear something. it's going to be quiet from now. because they can open investigations all they want. if they pick up the phone, make a call on their apple phone of course, they pick up the call -- they actually use land lines at the justice department, say, listen, i want to see those papers. is that an investigation? i guess so, right. can i see the papers l.a. county court. >> to your point it's not
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indicative that there's actually going to be a complaint filed and criminal action undertaken. >> but look at it. i mean, there was a dispute between new york and new jersey over some of these banks where paul fishman was much more interested i think in bringing some cases. >> right. >> new jersey federal -- you know, u.s. attorney there. so i think that you have aggress i prosecutors who read the papers and see that you can bring criminals -- hey, guys, who did you speak to? how high? was it branch manager, regional manager? where did it go to? can i see the e-mails you have? and the e-mails tend to, you know, colin powell e-mail -- >> actually, yes, a lot of people victim of e-mail hackings. >> you want to go so much more with a yes or no in your e-mail after reading the colin powell e-mail. >> you just have to assume you're being monitored at all times. >> front page of the times, assume your stuff is on the front page of "new york times" or on the front page of "new york post." >> after i did my chinese hacking documentary four years ago, there's really no doubt
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they've got everything. >> how about if you tweet pictures of yourself like in, you know, positions? figure that's going to be on the cover of the "new york post"? >> yes, i would, if you're a political figure. >> that was ill advised. >> it was ill advised. well, actually, i'm looking -- i was going to ask you about cellgene, jim. this is a follow-up number of weeks old, but i've been watching the stock a bit lately. they were the second bid for medivation. they came in at 80.25. >> wow. >> they were very aggressive. >> really. they paid too much for septos a lot of people feel. >> i'm curious about your thoughts about how they're feeling about m&a over there given they were willing to be extremely aggressive for a company that was bought by pfizer at an even higher price. >> well, cellgene has the unbelievable franchise they've been very interested in trying to get beyond to other franchises. but have they had great success? i think they have good success, but some of the other drugs have not turned out.
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what i've been waiting for is krones disease. i keep looking, nothing. that's what you need to see. so maybe they're concerned they need more. but cellgene has a lot of fire power. >> it does. and gilead also has a lot of fire power. we point that out a lot as we move here into the final quarter of the year with expectations for m&a still fairly high. not necessarily as much in health care as technology. >> pfizer paid $5 billion for a company that is atopic dermatitis, and yesterday even though allergan had a huge bid or huge premium, they paid $600 million for a company that does atopic dermatitis, very big market and a lot of crossovers. there's a lot of underlying m&a, but i also think that this group is a juggernaut ahead of -- you're going into a juggernaut election. >> speaking by the way, finally, speaking of m&a, monsanto now trading below 106 on a $128
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offer all-cash deal to be acquired by bayer. their number in notes this morning, one in particular, i forget who saying we don't think this thing's going to get approved. that's a bit of an outlier but it does show this is going to be a long slog for them. >> what are you hearing about the attitude? >> you know, the clock just stopped in the eu, that's happened many times for many corporations. it's not necessarily indicative they're somehow going to be facing an onslaught, but the clock has stopped. it's going to take time to get approvals. >> you did a great interview with the bayer ceo and monsanto. you made it very clear, look, farmers are protected class worldwide. and the farmers want innovation, and a lot of the farmers, been a lot of lawsuits with monsanto and farmers, but that's well known. the farmers want these seed companies to be played against each other. and then suddenly, you know, you get -- monsanto's not going to start a new seed that is going to compete with bayer.
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so i do think that the farmers are going to have a lot of power to try to stop these deals. protect the cash. i've been saying to the dow people and dupont people as much as i think they're great, guys, the farmers do not want this deal. now, they say, well, listen, don't worry about it. they don't compete directly. but that's not the issue. the fact is that they could compete if they wanted to go into the other guy's turf. and that's what the farmers want. >> future competition. >> yep. so keep an eye. >> dow's not changed much, but apple is once again the leading component 114 and change. let's get to bob pisani. bob. >> 10%, 10% move in apple. that's a $50 billion market cap added to apple in the last week or so. it's remarkable. broader market basically flat, about even on the advance/decline line. take a look at sectors here. remember recent market leadership groups were technology, banks and to a certain extent energy. that's sort of what it's like, but you can see it's kind of mixed here today. industrials a little concerned
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there. they're flat lining to slightly down in the last month or so. talk about that more a little bit later on today. we were hopeful today would be the big day for economic data. it was. we got eight or nine data points and maybe indicate what the fed might do next week. unfortuna unfortunately, it's been very mixed on the numbers. retail sales were a bit of a disappointment. industrial production sort of echoed the disappointing ism numbers we had, not surprisingly it usually does a little low, ppi in line, capacity utilization in line but slightly down. they tend to echo those ism numbers overall. so if you take a look at the august retail sales numbers, i always find them fascinating look at year over year and you can see the trends. online sales still double digit gains every single month when you compare the year over year numbers, august to august. people are still going out drinking and eating, bars and restaurants strong. building materials, do it yourself business, home depot, lowe's business, still strong although maybe decelerating just a little bit. and there you see the retail trends. people not buying as many clothing accessories. and department stores down every
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single month when we do the year over year comparisons, mid single digits here 5%. so the trend is continuing, non-store sales, internet sales continue to take market share. you can see today's numbers here. home depot, sherwin williams, diy crowd doing better, kohl's, korss, l brands, little worse. today's market action similar to what we've been seeing for months on end in the retail space. we've had a little volatility recently. exactly where are we in the stock market right now. here's my thoughts. we had two weak days, friday and tuesday. one strong day on monday. so friday and tuesday selloff was on heavy volume, monday's rally on very tepid volume and tepid breadth here. i'd like to see a little clearer signs that the up days have heavier volume and better breadth than the down days. we have not seen that. so cautious still. but the good news is overall if you look at the numbers, we're still mostly in an up trend right now. so let's move on, talk about what's going on with ipos
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because a nice interesting ipo today. this one was attempted in december and couldn't make it. this is an oil and gas pipeline company, noble midstream. obviously they're coming out of noble here. the price talk was $19 to $21. wait a minute, they priced at $22.50, because demand was strong. in fact, they're pricing it a day earlier here. this is the first master limited partnership since 2016, june of 2016. they had a yield of 6.2% in december. they decided not to go. they upped yield to 7.5%, better market conditions, higher yield. come back to me, folks. show you the crowds over here. take a look, noble right now indications for noble $24 to $26 right now. so $19 to $21 price talk. price is at $22.50 above the range, indications right now $24 do $26. doesn't look like it's ready to go. another 15 minutes or so. i'll keep an eye on that. but at least this ipo certainly successful and not many energy ipos at all this year. maybe it will start a trend.
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back to you. >> guys, thanks so much. bob pisani. get to the bond pits, a busy morning it's been in fixed income and macro. rick santelli at the cme. >> hi, carl. indeed we actually paid some attention to fundamentals. the weak retail sales in particular. but keep in mind the markets moving the most. already we're moving pretty well. and i'm speaking at the long end of the curve. look at intraday of twos. we definitely moved on the number mostly lower but came back hovering in mid 70s. remember we finished august at 81, six basis points lower. look at the intraday 10, a bit of a dimpt response, wouldn't you say? we finished at 1.58 in august for 10s, which means they're up 15. a lot of curve steepening. look at the week of the bunds, we're moving in tandem, everyone though it was our data, everything in the data, central planners, central bankers all make a march arm in arm with bund yields up 11 basis points since their august close. now let's stick with the
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sovereigns. let's look at what gilts are doing. remember today was bank of england's big day. they didn't do all that much, but gilt yields followed everybody else. they're up about seven basis points. look at that chart on june 23rd start of course that was brexit. now let's look at that yield curve specifically i've been mentioning. so whether you look at 10s minus 2s since early may, 10s minus 5s, 30s minus 5s, everything is reversed, a lot of flattening into steepening. forget the philosophical issues, what it used to mean back in the day, those metrics, those messages aren't congruent with today's markets. all you need to know is the steepening curve is underscoring the rise in rates rather aggressively and it's across the entire curve and it's symmetrical with pretty much the sovereigns in the uk and the sovereigns in germany on the bund side. carl, back to you. thanks, rick santelli. when we come back, could paypal co-founder peter thiel be picked
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to fill the vacancy on the supreme court? in the meantime dow now down out of five after six losses. back in just a minute. experienhe thrill of the lus is f sport. because the ultimate expression of power, control. is is the pursuit of perfection. ♪ it'peyton on sunday ♪ mornings. ♪ e-man! what up, peyt. you know i have directv nfl nday ticket. i get every game, every sunday. all in hd. yeah. i know tha so you wanna come ov? i'll me chos!
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from venture capitalist to supreme court justice, peter thiel has told his friends that donald trump would nominate the paypal co-founder to the supreme court if he becomes president. sources telling "the huffington post" thiel does have a law background, would also make him the first openly gay member of the court. back in 2014 in his book "zero to one" he wrote about applying for a clerkship with scalia and kennedy, although he did not get an offer from either. start to pay more attention to reports like this over the next eight weeks that's for sure. >> that would certainly be a like a great legal scholar before you get on the supreme court, but this would be a
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change of pace. >> though in the earlier days of the union there were appointments to the supreme court of people who had a lot more real world experience. >> right. that's a good point. >> than there are now. and even the current justices have pointed out the lack of diversity, not necessarily female or male but more about everybody went to yale or harvard law school. and all were judges prior to taking their seat. >> look, i mean, trump's going to appoint people who are like-minded in terms of the political interests. but i don't laugh at this. i don't laugh at this because peter thiel is one of the great business people of all time. justice briar is a great businessman. had the fortune to know him at harvard law. and you want -- if those of us who like stocks you want a pro-business guy, peter thiel would be hard to find a better guy. i'm saying it's not as nuts as it first may seem. >> you also have a law degree, i would point out. >> look, i was a judge on
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"apprentice," i helped fire melissa river. >> true. >> were you writing for the set or the court at that time? >> will you accept appointment to the court? >> i will serve. >> you will? okay, will you still come on the show every morning? can you do both? >> like mondays. i'll take monday off, right? maybe i make the morning and miss the evening show or make the evening show and miss the morning, we'll talk that over but i can make this work. >> okay, good. >> those guys, they take the whole summer off. it's easy. easy as pie. i'll do a documentary too while i'm at it. >> awesome. >> when we come back, stop trading with jim. later today senator elizabeth warren on "power lunch" talking wells fargo and more at 2:00 p.m. eastern time. s&p now positive for the week. and apple once again about half of the dow's gains.
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time for cramer and stop trading. >> you know, there have become a discount to the semiconductors if they were involved with apple. the ones not involved with apple or just plain uninvolved with
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cars. skyworks just got clobbered because they had the most content in apple. so they had been penalized. corvo, the actual chip company, rf chips, nxpi, but they've gone much more into auto, and never forget broadcom. but skyworks was the one that was linked and went down pretty much every day apple went down. so now it's getting its justice deserved. it's a very good company. >> what's on mad tonight? >> well, we're going to be analyzing -- i got a company that is what you do if you want to be an amazon advertiser. now, the company's name is potoc. that's actually a bird found in the amazon. but if you want to advertise on amazon, you have to use these guys to come up, it's your store front. i want to find out about this because i tend to click on the ads that are best in amazon. i do. on the store front. it catches my eye.
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kp if you don't -- i mean, insect cheeld. >> amazon is doing that specifically because they know it's you. so it's targeting. >> no, no, that's elon musk calling me a simulation. >> no, no, amazon does that too. it's part of what they do. >> amazon announcing a wind farm this morning capable of powering 90,000 homes. they're everywhere. they are everywhere. >> i would not want to compete against amazon in anything, right? >> right. >> rockets. >> no. >> musk, in the end it's going to be musk versus -- it just has to be. >> jim, see you tonight "mad money" 6:00 p.m. when we come back a lot more on this apple rally which rolls on. and we'll explore what to expect from donald trump as we count down to his speech today on the economy. dow's up 33.
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♪ good thursday morning. welcome back to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla along with sarah eisen and david faber at post nine of the new york stock exchange. markets once again starting out in a mild mood. dow's up 24, about half of that is apple which leads for a third consecutive day. big day for macro. we got some more data now
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crossing the tape. rick santelli's got that. rick. >> yes. we have our july read on business inventories. it was unchanged, which means that if you look at july as unchanged, that was the weakest month over month pop in inventory since it was down 0.1% in february. it hasn't been a great day today. retail sales many are giving it a pass just using adjectives like weak. but really was weak through and through. yield curve continues to steepen. looks like the 10-year may test 1.75 very shortly. carl and the gang, back to you. >> rick, thank you. as rick mentioned a slew of data out this morning, initial jobless claims, retail reduction all ahead of a big meeting for the federal reserve next week. let's bring in steve liesman for more. steve, eight economic reports, do we have a clear picture of the economy? >> yes, how do you process it all? you're probably asking i'm going to give you two ways to process,
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later this morning i'll give you a third. first, how did all the data do compared to expectations? was it better or worse? retail sales worse, core retail sales worse, ppi a touch better if you like less inflation. industrial production was worse. are you getting the theme here now? hold on because you look at the next thing, philly fed, better than expectations, empire stayed worse, jobless claims were better. best you can say here, folks, is mixed picture. consumer doing okay on the jobs but not necessarily spending a whole lot of money. there's the retail detail. a surprising decline in miscellaneous store retailers. we highlight that because that's where your internet spending is done, down 2.4%, building and garden equipment down, autos, gas stations, down as well. department stores taking a hit. not a los of positivity. most of the numbers on the
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street was negative though some maintained consumer is in good shape to spend but perhaps took a summer pause. bank of tokyo, mitsubishi says the driving force of the economy this year just blew a tire and went off the road. but steve stanley ak amherst points out the underlying fundamentals for the consumer remain quite strong. disposable income gains are sufficient to support solid gains. another way to look at it is relative to expectations, there are fed rate hike probabilities they have declined. i think i woke up this morning they were 14. this number had been as high as 30%. so there's the market moving away from any expectation that the fed will hike. and, sarah, we're down i think to like 44% for december. >> yeah. so how do we process whether this is just a blip for august? especially with the u.s. consumer. certainly manufacturing has been weak for a while. we've had a number of ceos talking about the industrial production. but the consumer chunk, which is
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so important. how do we know if it's going to rebound? >> let me do an air chart. the way we measure gdp is we get the prior quarter level, and then we see is the next month above or below that, right? so june was a pop up, and we'd been kind of just slightly negative since then. we're still on pace for the quarter to do 3%. we have reasonably strong job growth. you've seen the data we've given you about incomes. the money seems to be there for consumers to spend. so i don't think i'd be quite ready yet to give up the ghost on the consumer. the other third way, sarah, we're going to show you how to process this number is we take all of this data that is connected to gdp and later on this morning hopefully i'll come back with the cnbc rapid update to show you how this effects estimates for the third quarter gdp growth. >> sounds good. see you then, steve. thank you. let's talk about the market reaction because we are seeing stocks on a mini rally, dow up 22 points, bonds interestingly
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enough are selling off with yields higher especially 10-year and 30-year. bryan jacobsen, and art hogan joining us. brian, the data, especially big ones, industrial production and retail sales weaker. how do you explain higher yields on the 10-year and 30-year? >> i was hoping you could explain it to me as to how we would get higher yields on this weak data. i think actually part of it is that you have to look at different parts of the curve. if you look at the 2-year treasury when data came out, you saw yield went down yet going out along the 10-year suddenly moves higher. i think in a weird way what you have here is almost an untwisting of the yield curve. if you remember back to 2011 and 2012, the federal reserve implemented operation twist where they wanted to raise the short end of the yield curve, lower long term interest rates. and now we almost have a sort of natural unwinding of that. i think this is just sort of the
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longer end of the yield curve moving back to more reasonable normal levels. and we could see the 10-year treasury move up towards 1.75%, 1.8% as we go into the fomc meeting next week. >> and here we are at 172. art, i'll get your take on the explanation for the market reaction to the data, but bringing in stocks. because what we had seen were stocks and bonds selling off together and going up together, little bit of a reversal, at least right now. >> yeah, sarah, you bring up a really good pointd, it's correlations and how that doesn't make sense right now. i think to brian's point, i think everything he said about the yield curve is probably correct in terms of unwinding that's long overdue. but also we have to remember none of this is happening in a vacuum. so anticipation what the bank of japan is going to do also has a lot to do with the yield on the front end of our curve. the important message, sarah, is correlations will break down at some point in time. stocks and bonds don't move in the same direction frequently. and today's probably the first time we've seen that inverse correlation as we should.
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but what's more important is as you look out at that yield curve regardless of near-term moves, we're not seeing an inversion. >> we've got a fed that wants to get away from emergency levels of monetary policy. agnostic of data. we're probably going to see an increase in rates and probably happens in december. and the marvegt, you know, has a mixed message. fed waited too long and wants another rate hike in. >> we're waiting for bank of japan next week, i think it was j.p. morgan yesterday called this kpcomprehensive assessment the most important monetary event for the remainder of the year. if it's hard enough reading tea leaves in washington, it's three times as hard to read them in tokyo. >> that's a very good point. i said that at the front, carl. it's not happening in the vacuum. it is the bank of japan probably affecting the yield on our
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10-year more than anything we're doing here in terms of monetary policy. i think you make a very good point. for this to be the most important monetary policy event of the year, we're running out of a lot of this year pretty quickly. it's not as though -- we've got a fed that's clearly choreographed the message they want to raise rates, it appears they're going to do that regardless of what the data tells us because they've been too low for too long. we're probably going to get 25 basis points in december and reassess after a national election. i think the national election is what has consumers on the sidelines in september and probably through the election process because that's an unknown. whoever the president is, there's no incumbent. it's going to be somebody new. it's a large unknown quantity. and i think that's what has the market sideways for an extended period of time and certainly has consumers sitting back and not making big decisions until they know what the result of that will be. >> yeah, certainly, brian. we know that the market does not like the unknown. it breeds fear. right now though the focus is on the unknown for the federal reserve. what they're going to do, when they're going to do it and whether it's even going to work. are you seeing the election uncertainty play out here?
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>> i'm not sure how much of this is due to uncertainty around the election because it's not as though we didn't know there was going to be an election. yes, it's a close race, but it's not like we haven't seen this before. and, plus, markets kind of actually thrive on uncertainty as much as we like to say they don't like it. that's why you get an equity risk premium, right? because of that additional uncertainty in there. i think that actually the uncertainty around what the house and the senate might look like is probably playing a little bit more of a role in the way in which the market is acting right now. not so much on the presidential side because remember with our system of checks and balances it takes two to tango, three to tango if you want to include the supreme court in there. the election uncertainty i think maybe is playing a very minor role. this is real economic data, industrial production, softening retail sales numbers, that's just not pointing to stocks in the near-term moving materially higher. i think we really do need to see the data strengthen in order to support a further move higher. but yet you can see the long end
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of the yield curve continue to march to more normal levels. >> art, what is the upshot for you when it comes to this market? sort of an unconvincing rally right now. summer's over, volatility's back. what are we in? are we in a dip? a more prolonged drop? what is the forecast from here? >> to brian's point, i don't think we can put too much emphasis on any single data point or group of data points especially when they represent economic activity in the month of august. i think we're at the point in time where the path for least resistance is lower and probably will be lower, but i don't think it's replicating what we saw last august probably somewhere between 5% and 10% on a pullback. we're going to see election results, we're going to realize the fed raised rates and it doesn't matter. this time next year we'll have forgotten whether they raised in september or december and the market will move forward. i think the important thing is we've seen an inflection point in earnings growth the third and fourth quarters certainly look like better than first and second quarter. and as does gdp growth. so i think we're probably at a
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much overdue pullback in this marketplace. it probably equals 5% or 10%. it's not going to be 15%, i think we move forward after the actions. >> that is a forecast. thank you very much, both of you, for joining us on these markets with the dow up 40. brian jacobsen from wells fargo and art hogan. going, going gone, apple sells out of 7 plus. and third party candidate gary johnson makes it on to the ballot, all 50 states. trump is gearing up to give an economic speech. we're going to have the latest from the campaign trail when "squawk on the street" comes back.
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apple hitting a high this week, iphone 7 plus up this morning. the company also reporting the initial run of the iphone 7 plus is sold out around the world. is it time to put to rest the innovation debate on apple? joining us this morning henry blojic, business insider ceo and angelo seno. good to see both of you. have they answered that debate? >> no. this is an incremental upgrade. it's better. sure it helps, the stock usually runs up into the launch a little bit. is it going to radically transform the company and suddenly return it to growth? highly unlikely. >> anglo, are you that
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skeptical, i guess is the right word? >> i mean, we're a bit skeptical, but i will say this. i think what we've seen thus far initial indications are we got good momentum for the iphone 7. i don't think it lasts kind of throughout the cycle especially as you kind of inch towards that iphone 8 cycle next year. with that being said, i mean, i think it's a very encouraging sign, i think apple continues to innovate and create products that consumers want. and i do expect that installed base to continue to increase partly because of some of the issues that samsung is having right now with the note 7. >> it is hard to overstate how horrible that is for samsung. it's unbelievable. they finally come out with a phone that everybody loves from a design perspective, they think it's great then they start exploding. i was on an airplane earlier this week, they're specifically saying no samsung phones on this airplane. it's just a disaster. and it happens right as apple's launching a great product, iphone 7, they make wonderful phone. what a gift. >> how do you get your head
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around the sold out notion, right, the lack of numbers the opening weekend? is this the kind of thing where they've reached a point where there's no way they could have capacity to meet opening weekend demand? >> i think that's the way to think about it. you don't know what it really means. they're selling globally now as they do this. so it's really hard to get a picture of that. again, it's a great phone. they will sell tens of millions of them. it's just not a radical a change as the iphone 6 when they came out with a big screen and finally caught up to samsung and you had this huge rush where they also had big price increases, big profit increases, that was the time to radical change. >> if that's true, angelo, why wasn't verizon more bullish in their commentary yesterday? >> yeah, i think that's interesting. i think when we kind of take the four carriers together in its totality, i think overall it's a good indication for apple. however, when we look, i think, at what's going on within the carrier space, i do expect that
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the value carriers continue to take market share here. you know, at&t did -- appears to be doing okay. however, you know, when you look at especially t-mobile and sprint, it appears they're offering something that the other two big carriers aren't, and that is leasing programs. and i think ahead of a potential super cycle next year, i would expect that there are going to be some consumers that migrate towards the leasing option. i think this year more so than any year. that would be a great option for consumers. i think that's part of the reason. but it's tough to really say why, you know, verizon is struggling, you know, relative to maybe at&t. >> so, angelo, what does it mean for the stock, which has already had a pretty nice move here up more than 8% for the week now trading at multi-month highs? i mean, this is a breakout. so how much more readjustment does there have to be based on the recalibration of expectations around iphone 7 and plus demand? >> i think you've kind of seen
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easy money being made here. our view is the momentum for the iphone 7 will start to wane in the coming months. but that being said i do think that the stock continues to grind higher. i think you've got new product launches, potentially on the horizon next year, that continues to increase the expectations for apple. and because of that i would expect the stock to continue to re-rate to the upside. i see more upside here in the coming quarters. with that being said, i mean clearly we've seen a great move here. and i think, you know, it could be due for a pause. >> now leading for the week, for the month, for the three months and this is a large liquid name. have you been surprised? >> it's been a nice move for apple shareholders. no question. my guess is we get a lag after the launch and then as we get into the first quarter we probably get another lag. talking about everybody's already focused on the next cycle, which is supposed to be a more radical change. so that will probably keep
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excitement levels high. that said, the iphone is still by far apple's most important product. the watch hasn't done much. macs aren't doing much, services are growing but very small. this is a product that is maturing, so even if you have a radical difference, it's not likely to suddenly transform things the way the 6 did, which was again massive -- >> why do you have confidence that they are innovating and working behind the scenes, they're a secretive company, on the next big thing? >> so what is the next big thing, sarah? >> well -- >> is it the car? i mean, this idea that apple is going to suddenly roll out an automobile in five years and going to transform the global auto industry is a hallucination. first of all, it is so many years out it doesn't matter. second of all, the car business is a fundamentally different business. and i will be very surprised if apple makes a huge splash there even if you say they're going to whip up a tesla overnight, you're talking about 10% incremental market cap starting
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five years from now. it's just what else are we going to come up with? augmented reality? that will help a little bit. is it going to be another iphone? i doubt it. >> but, henry, to be fair, the focus is on health care with a watch now which is a growing industry where there's a lot of costs that can still be taken out. and yes, of course, they're not going to necessarily create an automobile, but autonomous driving is going to be here at some point. it's going to be very important. you certainly want them to be a part of all of those important trends. >> absolutely. i think they can be. but i think that what there's still an expectation that they're simply going to pull another iphone out of a hat. and i think what people miss in that is the iphone is an incredibly unusual once in a lifetime product. it is the most profitable product in history. it has become an annuity because you're hooked into it. people will shell out a huge amount of money to buy them and then keep upgrading them every two years. it's incredibly unusual product. apple's tried a lot of other things.
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everyone was so optimistic about the ipad. ultimately the iphone cannibalized the ipad. so i think the idea there's some massive new thing that will be a repeat of the iphone, i think it's wishful thinking. >> it would be amazing if lightning struck twice, like it has on the phone. guys, thank so much. good discussion. henry, angelo, thanks. coming up on the show, you can finally get off your couch and still catch the game. we're talking about twitter's first nfl game, which is live tonight. we've got the details on that. much more ahead on "squawk on the street" with the dow making a move higher here up 61 points. s stay connected. thmicroft clouoffers infinite scability. the miosoft cloud helps our custers get up and running, anywhen e planet. whever the a phone, yocould ver do that before. the cloud gave us a sile platform treach acrossur tire organization. itel us communicate beer. advanced analytics toolso track wn ccriminals. cloud hel transform business.
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little less than one hour into trading and we're looking at the highs of the session here with the dow jones industrial average up about 60 points. leading the dow for the third day in a row is apple. i said that it was up more than 8% this week. it's actually up more than 11% so far this week and is now trading at nine-month highs. it is helping technology outperform. best performer in the s&p despite what we saw which was some weaker economic data especially industrial production and retail sales. twitter meantime getting ready to kick off its live
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streaming of the 10 thursday night nfl football games tonight. julia boorstin joins us with more from l.a. julia, how does this all work? >> reporter: sarah, this is all part of a big expansion of how the nfl is offering its games digitally. twitter buying streaming rights to ten thursday night games giving it the right to sell a certain amount of ad inventory paying about $10 million, according to sources. now, twitter's reportedly helping to bring in as much as $50 million in revenue. of course it will have to share that revenue with the nfl. now, the nfl's not just partnering with twitter to grow revenue and reach. just last week the nfl launched a snapchat discover channel, first pro sports league to get this prime snapchat placement. this is part of a two-year partnership in which snapchat and nfl will sell ads and share that revenue. this season nfl network and nfl red zone will be available on sling tv and on play station view. plus, earlier this year the nfl expanded its partnership with youtube to put more games
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online. now, this is the nfl looks to ramp up digital revenue, these partnerships are also about drawing attention to its core business, television. its games are at the most valuable live tv programming with this season's ad rates up about 8% to an all-time high. the hitch though, the first weekend in football saw ratings declines across the board from thursday through monday. now, of course with all these new digital ways to watch, there is the risk that people won't tune in to the more valuable tv ads. but the nfl's hoping that all these new platforms will help grow overall interest in the game. guys, back over to you. >> all right. julia, thank you so much for that. our julia boorstin. when we come back, donald trump getting ready to give an economic speech this morning right here in new york. we're going to talk about the campaign trail after a break. in the meantime, take a look at where stocks are trading this hour. dow close to session highs here up 65. you're watching "squawk on the street." stay with us.
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good morning everybody. i'm sue herera. here's your cnbc news update at this hour. at least six passengers were kill eed and more than 100 injud when a passenger train collided with a freight train earlier this morning in pakistan. a railway official says they suspect negligence on the part of the engineer of the passenger train may have caused that accident. chinese state media reporting typhoon meranti made landfall today. winds shattered windows, disrupted water supplies as well. the region's power grid was also extremely damaged. british cyclist chris froome and bradley wiggins among latest athletes to have their medical records hacked. there is no suggestion that any of the athletes named are implicated in any wrongdoing. and early birds camping outside the apple stores in
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sydney and tokyo the day before the much-anticipated launch of the iphone 7. about a dozen people donned chairs outside the store's main entrances in sydney and others, take a look at that. they brought their own tent. not a bad idea. all right, that's the news update this hour. let's send it over to jackie deangelis with the eia inventory report. hi, jackie. >> good morning to you, sue. that's right. we're waiting for the numbers on natural gas from the department of energy looking for an injection of $5 -- 59 to 63 billion. that range would be slightly under what we saw this time last year, slightly under the five-year average as well. while we're waiting for the number to come out, you can see prices are trending down this morning just a little bit here. and the department of energy actually saying that we got an injection of 62 billion cubic feet, so right in the range that i mentioned. and you can see the prices getting a little bit of a lift at this point but in terms of the natural gas trade remember this we're up 10% in one month
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22% year on year. there's been some enthusiasm for this trade but total stocks are still in really good shape ahead of the five-year average as we head into the winter so the enthusiasm to push nat gas up to $3 not really there right now. we're going to have to continue to see how weather shapes out and how demand shapes out as well. and watch these numbers. but generally speaking nat gas is trading in a range right now. back to you guys at post nine. >> jackie, thank you for that. jackie deangelis. donald trump is getting ready to speak at the economic club of new york today. our own john harwood joins us this morning with more on that. hey, john. >> reporter: hey, carl. donald trump's going to lay out his economic vision at the waldorf astoria behind me. let me just first start by setting the race, new national poll out this morning, cbs/"new york times" showing like other polls have a tightening race. when you have a clinton-trump matchup just a two-point advantage for hillary clinton now. when you include the third party candidates, gary johnson and jill stein tied at 42, now, let's compare the economic plan
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donald trump is contrasting his with. hillary clinton is proposing to raise the top rate for incomes above $5 million to 43.6%. she's proposing to apply the buffett rule, minimum 30% tax on incomes above $1 million. it's a deficit neutral plan. she would also only allow deductions to be taken against the 28% rate. donald trump on the other hand has previously outlined a plan to have a top rate of 33% on personal income, top business tax rate of 15%. his plan originally was scored at adding about $10 trillion to the deficit. his advisors now say it's down to about $3 trillion over 10, but they also project big economic growth. then you also have from donald trump a temporary freeze on regulations. he makes an exception for that of course because he just announced this week proposal for mandatory six weeks of paid maternity leave for new mothers. and then finally donald trump wants to renegotiate trade
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deals. donald trump's going to weave all those together into a speech today at the new york economic club and try to make the case that he's going to produce growth in jobs, guys. >> at the same time, john, we've been in this period where everyone's been talking about the health of both candidates. are you getting the sense we're going to put that to bed and start talking about more issues ahead of the debate? >> you know, i think some people will keep raising those issues. and donald trump's episode with dr. oz, the reality tv doctor, aired today. that's not going to quiet all the questions. but i tell you my view, running for president's really hard. it shows who you are in terms of your personality, what you're all about as a human being. it also tests your physical stamina. and i grant both of these candidates, hillary clinton and donald trump, the presumption that if they're fit enough to run around the country for a year and a half to run for president, they're probably reasonably fit to be president of the united states.
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that doesn't mean they shouldn't release medical information, and they've both released some. but, you know, not adequate for a lot of people. but i think both of them are likely fit enough to assume the oval office. >> yeah, it's a lot of travel, long hours, lot of handshaking. it's hard to stay healthy over the course of a year or more. john, thanks for that. john harwood, we'll come back to him later this morning. for more on this we're joined from san francisco by veteran democratic strategist crystal fenis now ceo of park street strategies. with us from post nine, senior advisor boris upstein. boris, how granular can you get in a speech at the economic club in new york? >> you'll see a lot of details in this speech. you'll see details on tax brackets, corporate tax bracket, details on some specific regulations that mr. trump wants to do away with that are really burdening our economy. there will be a lot of specifics
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in this speech and big contrast is going to be hillary clinton wants to tax, tax, tax while donald trump wants to actually reenergize the economy, cut taxes for all brackets and make sure all americans are involved in this revitalization of the economy. we haven't had 3% gdp growth in eight years. this is anemic growth, the worst recovery we've had since the great depression. donald trump will turn that around. >> he talks a lot about mandating jobs coming back, targeting specific companies, apple, ford, you name it. will he delve into how he's going to convince these companies to do that? >> absolutely. and a part of that will be in his speech. there will be more policy rolling out over the next what we have 52 days now, i'm not sure the exact count. so exciting so much going on. so you lose count sometimes. but we have about, you know, 50, 55 days, there will be a lot more coming out on that. we'll absolutely make sure jobs come back to this country. we've lost several hundred thousand jobs just because of nafta. we'd lose 2 million more because of the tpp. donald trump and his administration will make sure that does not happen. >> at the same time hillary clinton goes back to the trail
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after three days of rest. will she be matching trump on specifics word for word? >> well, i think she's going to go out there and probably focus, if i was advising her focus on more positive vision in terms of taking the country. bashing trump, he does a good enough job of bashing himself. i don't think there's a lot of value in terms of that. but i think she's going to point out, you know, when you talk about specifics, i think to me the one statistic that points out if you want to be an economic stewart for this country and your economic plan is going to add $3 trillion to the deficit after reducing it from $10 trillion and pretend that's a good economic plan, i think you've got a fundamental problem. listen, trump is clearly trying to have a reset in his campaign. and his campaign team is trying to enforce some discipline upon him -- >> up by six in the latest -- >> you know what, i didn't interrupt you. don't interrupt me. >> i'm just asking you a question. >> don't interrupt me until i finish.
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>> it's just a question. >> so the reality is -- the reality -- listen, i know that donald trump kind of teaches you guys to interrupt people, but i'm not going to buy it, okay? >> go ahead, chris. >> so, i mean, i think the reality here is that donald trump i think is facing some serious economic questions. his team is clearly trying to get him prepared for the debate, which i would say is a smart thing to do. but when you're on the debate stage, you are not going to have a tell prompter telling you what to say. i think this is the fundamental challenge trump has going up against hillary clinton experience and policy knowledgeable. at the end of the day trump's details are what lacking a teleprompter speech is not an economic vision. >> so you can go after both of them, you know, go after each other on these issues, boris, but the crowd that he's talking to today it's global economists, it's academics, it's wall street, ceos and number one complaint we hear about trump's economic message and plan is on
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trade. and i know he says that he is for free trade, but he wants fair trade. but this idea of tariffs on mexico and china and this adverse trade scenario could really cost our economy. so how does he answer those questions? >> that's not going to happen. what he's saying is tariffs will be on the table as part of the negotiation. so will getting up from the table and walking away. as all of us know who are in business, that's part of negotiation. everything has to be on the table. that's a big reason why he's been so successful in his own business. because he is someone who negotiates well for himself and his partners. so as he talks to these people today and throughout the country, yesterday he was in flint talking to people suffering under this clinton/obama economy, today he's talking to economists people from wall street, he's bringing the message of we need to get america working again. we need that gdp growth back up. everything under the clinton/obama economy has failed. and as far as trade goes, donald trump is absolutely for free trade, but he's for smart trade. >> and clinton, you know, i would have the same criticism, chris, why doesn't she go on the
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opposite side of that? why is she turning away from asia, which seems like not only a politically awkward move with president obama and secretary lew just this week at our delivering alpha conference saying there's still room for tpp to pass and a lot of economists saying it would be very helpful for our economy. why is she going against it? >> well, i think you have across the country especially amongst the middle class working americans a lot of questions and a loss of confidence in these kind of trade deals. i think, you know, if there's one amazing thing to say in terms of common agreement is that i think both donald trump and hillary clinton have some serious questions about, you know, certain trade deals specifically the tpp. i mean, what she has said is unless it is negotiated in a way that clearly protects workers in this country, she's not going to support it. and i think that is going to be a major sticking point. but i think you have to go back and compare and contrast these two candidates in terms of their broader economic vision as well as where they want to take the country.
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i mean, to me the part that i still struggle with is when you look at donald trump the lack of policy details. go to his website, he has about 9,000 words covering all of his policy versus clinton. now, i know that policy wonkishness does not matter sometimes to certain individualingindividual individuals, but the reality is a measure of where you're going to take the country -- hold accountable. >> one last thing here, boris. in recent interviews on our network and others he suggested that the stock market is a bubble. that janet yellen should be ashamed of herself for being hyperpolitical. is that a topic for today or no? >> well, first of all to what chris said on the tpp hillary clinton is lying. she said over 45 times that was a gold standard and was in favor of it. now she's changing her tune the way the political winds blow. that's what democrats do. >> fair enough. >> on this specific issue and as we're sitting here i think we can pretty much agree that rates have been kept low for too long.
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that's the perspective donald trump has and does seem like the fed doesn't want to make a move right now because it would upset the election. so that's his perspective as a citizen and as a businessman, he's absolutely able to have that point and he's entitled to it. >> guys, we're going to see what the speech brings today. we appreciate you raising the card. boris, chris, guys, thanks. as we head to a break, take a look at shares here of wells fargo down again almost 3% in the aftermath of the sales issue. know now federal prosecutors are looking into this. much more ahead on "squawk on the street." stay with us. unch of dreamers look up to the sky and sa, "whyot?" and collaboration tos from l made rkesciencsimple anthe unch crew met for a moment oreflection. bere a of is, cdw orchesated a collaboran using pcs withthntel 6th gen core vpro processors.
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let's get over to the cme group. rick santelli joins us with the santelli exchange. rick. >> thank you and good morning, david. and good morning, jim karen, thanks for taking the time this thursday morning. >> good morning. >> well, you saw retail sales, that was kind of the biggie and
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it was on the weak side. even though it moderated a bit, the long end took it hard selling off pushing rates up in the short end if it did anything rallied a bit pushing rates down. a bit counterintuitive for a big week data point. your thoughts? >> yeah, well, i think that's one of the things for this whole year is that really fundamentals haven't mattered and we have to ask ourselves why. we live in a world today where central bank policy seems to be dominating everything. that means fundamentals take a backseat and really about the technicals, seems central banks are stepping away a little bit from lower rates at least in the back end. they still like it in the front end, but they don't like it in the back end. and we're seeing that whether it's in japan or potentially the ecb. so we're seeing a steepening of the curve as there seems to be lack of sponsorship from central banks for back end rates. >> you mentioned the bank of england. we'll gloss over that. i didn't see mr. kerny add anything. whether you do things long on
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the euro end here in the uk or eurozone, one of the big catalysts selling off arm in arm is what mario draghi didn't say, your thoughts? >> no, correct. it's the proverbial dog that didn't bark. essentially it seems to be that even with mario draghi, the ecb or even more recently the boj, the talk seems to be that everybody is embracing negative rates. the central bankers still believe that works, but they're starting to hedge themselves. and they're saying we like negative rates, but we don't like the dill tier yous impact it has on other parts of the economy, it reduces confidence, reduces consumption, causes people to save more, not spend more. and hurts insurance companies, pension funds. so what they're saying is they want to hedge themselves. they still like negative rates. they still like pushing rates lower, but they don't like the impact of a flatter yield curve. so now the fed and other central banks are trying to go from manipulating front end rates to trying to reshape the yield curve to their preference at this point. >> yeah. you know, jim, you bring up a great point. and i want to really drill down on this. negative rates, we're talking
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about unelected officials, a monster bureaucracy, coming down in the form of central bankers embracing an experiment not only that is not provable whether it actually has any benefit, there's no history on it. but to embrace negative rates even ben bernanke is writing that we haven't outruled the notion in this country. don't you think negative rates a horrible idea? why do we let them make us frogs? why do we let these central bankers experiment with trillions of dollars of economic money in the future? >> well, we in the market can't control that. so what we have to do is deal with it. and one of the things i think that we have to deal with right now is that central bankers are reluctant to move away from one policy, which is negative rates today, without having another policy to replace it with. so i think they're trying to embrace it less, but they're not yet ready to abandon it. what they are trying to do is massage it a little bit and trying to prop up back end rates so it helps other parts of the economy. >> let me interrupt. we're almost out of time.
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you said the fed likes steep curves. i'll tell you what, they better be careful about what they like and don't like. the reason the curve is steepening is not necessarily for reasons they would like. and if they actually donor mallimall i -- do normalize rates or more draghi comments where the dog doesn't bark, it's going to get real flat real quick. all rates going higher, your final thoughts. >> exactly right. i think rates going higher if there's growth in inflation, it's a good thing, if rates are going higher because there's a central bank maneuver to not sponsor the back end as much, i don't think that's necessarily going to have the economic impact they hope for. >> jim caron, thank you very much for taking the time to explain your thoughts and views. david faber, back to you. >> all right. thank you very much, rick santelli. let's get now to john harwood. he's got more news on donald trump's medical records. john. >> reporter: david, the information that donald trump gave yesterday to dr. oz, and we've all been kind of guessing about because they didn't release it yesterday, has now
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been released in the form of a letter. it was an examination taken last week of mr. trump by his doctor harold bornstein. this is the same doctor who wrote the kooky letter they put out some months ago talking about donald trump as being the healthiest person who'd ever served as president or whatever. this is in more sober medical language with actual detailed information, things like his cholesterol level at 169, i'm not a doctor but i believe under 200 is what you want to hope for. hillary clinton also under 189, said he had had a colonoscopy last year that was clean, no pollups shown. he had no cardiac history or cardiac problems. otherwise the examination was normal. said he'd only been hospitalized once when he was 11, i believe for an appendectomy.
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as we talked a few moments ago, nothing from this information that we've gotten that suggests any barrier to donald trump serving as president of the united states. >> does it -- john, i wonder, does it clear up this discussion and debate the relative transpas of both campaigns, does this clear it up? because clinton did release similar records with all sorts of indications, her respiratory rate and all sorts of tests she had had, the mammograms. this teems like it's relatively similar. >> reporter: it looked to me like eyeballing this letter and comparing it to what dr. bardak released from hillary clinton yesterday, it was similar types of information. so i don't know what's comparable and it depends on, you know, what you don't know. but certainly the cholesterol numbers, the -- he had his height and weight 6'3", 236 pounds. clinton didn't have that kind of information.
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but they seem broadly comparable in terms of the lab results of particular kinds of tests. >> all right, john. thanks for updating. john harwood join us from midtown where donald trump is going to give that speech in front of the economic club. coming up, computeriz iz iz ordering and special sriracha toppings. we'll head to a test restaurant next. at 2:00 p.m. eastern time on the anniversary of lehman's collapse, the "power lunch" team sits down with senator elizabeth warren to talk about the state of banking, the wells fargo scandal and a lot of other topics. ♪jakeee, "day to fee"♪
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♪jake rse "day to feel alive"♪ ♪jake reese, "day to feealive"♪ from the creative galaxy in my idea box wod you lp me make art? hey, i have an idea! ♪e'llever get older. artygo be amazing! amazing! annocer: give your caboard box another life.
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mcdonald's is getting automated with computerized kiosks and specialty toppings. susan lee is at one of the mcdonald's concept restaurants in new jersey and joins us with a little peek as to what the company is up to. susan? >> reporter: hi, sara. you may recognize the brand but the way they're serving customers is changing. this is the first mcdonald's restaurant in new jersey, new jersey being one of the first four states across america to start implementing and using
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these automated kiosks as mcdonald's is embracing technology and changing the way that you order burgers and fries. so how this works is when you walk into a mcdonald's restaurant, instead of walking up to a cash register and giving your order to a human, a person, instead you walk up to a computer screen where you start swiping through and pressing through all the selections that mcdonald's offers including modern ones and my favorite, sriracha mayo and guacamole. then you sit at table where your order gets brought to you, yeah, on a plate, right? and the franchisee and the owner we spoke to of this restaurant say these computer kiosks are helping him because it's increasing the ticket amount orders. i think people tend to spend more at the key i don't say, because they see pictures. when they see pictures, they say i want that. >> reporter: so mcdonald's's ceo, dave easterbrook, he wants
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to roll out these kiosks in america after finding success with them in europe. panera has been using them. domino's, you can order a pizza on the app or the internet. starbucks is doing the same. analysts say you have these restaurant chains embracing technology, yes, to improve the customer experience but you can't lose sight of the fact this is ultimately about cutting down on costs. >> some of the rise in automation, kiosks, automatic payments, things like that, to some degree is a direct result of what's going on with labor costs as well as some of the other profitability challenges that they've had. >> reporter: so you're probably wondering with more automation what does this mean for the fight for higher minimum wages? well, mcdonald's has said this is not about cutting jobs, introducing these automated kiosks. it's about redistribution of labor and possibly more to the back end, but the analysts that we spoke to say that, yes, this might be the case in the short term, but ultimately this is about cutting down on costs.
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back to you. >> yeah. eliminating labor costs. you wonder what the long-term impact is going to be on these restaurant jobs. susan, thank you. susan lee at mcdonald's. we are looking at the dow up 90 points led by a big move higher in apple here, up another 3%. with that, let's send it to john with a look at what's up next for "squawk alley." >> people have been ordering up that iphone 7-plus, apple announcing they're out, the stock within a buck of all-time highs. we have the ceo of e.a. coming up to weigh in on mobile gaming and more on "squawk alley." abigail ggs d...
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ju steve.no. st s. live business, ped bp. when you run l you rusimp. good morning. it is 8:00 a.m. at twitter headquarters out west. 11:00 a.m. on wall street. and "squawk alley" is live. ♪

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