tv Fast Money Halftime Report CNBC September 15, 2016 12:00pm-1:01pm EDT
fight for every last american job and every american company, which really a lot of companies in this room, i can tell you. we're going to be fighting for you. because you're bringing the jobs. we're a nation that tamed the west, dug out the panama canal, and won two world wars and put a man on the moon. it's time to start thinking big once again. that's why i believe it's time to establish a national goal of reaching 4% economic growth. [ applause ] and my great economists don't want me to say this, but i think we can do better than that. now they're upset. they'll be very upset. but i think we can do and maybe substantially better than that. in working with my economic team, we put together a plan that puts us on track to achieve
that goal over the next ten years our economic team estimates that under our plan the economy will average 3.5% growth and create a total of 25 million new jobs. you can visit our website. just look at the math. it works. [ applause ] this growth means that our jobs and plans including our child care reforms that ivanka trump, my daughter, is so involved in will become -- i like her, too. will be completely paid for in combination with proposed budget savings. it will be deficit neutral. if we reach 4% growth, it will reduce the deficit. it will be accomplished through a complete overhaul of our tax regulatory, energy and trade policies.
[ applause ] right now under the obama/clinton policies, the economy grew only 1.1% last quarter, a number that was shock ing to people who who do this professionally and for life. it translates into millions of lost jobs and certainly millions of lost good jobs because we don't have good jobs anymore. those jobs are gone and going. this is the weakest so-called recovery since the great depression. over the last seven years the economy grew only 2.1%. the slowest period in 70, 7-0, 70 years. had the economy grew under obama at the same rate as reagan, it would have meant 10 million more
jobs. perhaps most shockingly one in six men annged 18 to 34 are eitr in jail or out of work. meanwhile, another 2 million hispanic americans have been added to the ranks of those in poverty, on top of it all the obama/clinton policies have doubled the national debt. it took more than 230 years for the you states to accumulate its first $10 trillion in debt. it took president obama less than eight years to add another $10 trillion. now it would be one thing if that money had been used to completely rebuild our nation, our military, our infrastructure, but that didn't happen. instead the opposite happened.
we doubled our debt and in return we have dilapidated infrastructure, failing schools, a badly depleted military, the greatest people on earth, and they have a badly depleted military. its equipment old and tired. never has so much money been spent so poorly and so unwisely but we're going to turn that all around and here is how. it begins with bold new tax reform. don't worry, they're going down. as outlined in detroit our tax plan will greatly simplify the code and reduce the brackets from seven to it three.
the new brackets will be 12, 25, and 33%. but low income americans will pay no income tax at all. our plan will remove millions and millions of workers from the income tax role enit titirely s that work we do in washington can be discontinued. they'll pay tax but they'll pay tax when they start making a certain amount of income. by lowering rates, simplifying the process, we will add millions and millions and close special interest. it will be on the working and middle class taxpayer. they will receive the biggest benefit and it won't even be close.
they have built our country. we will not forget. [ applause ] this is a working and middle class tax relief proposal. the tax relief will be expanded by my child care proposals that i have worked on with my daughter ivanka. these proposals are central and very powerful central element of our comprehensive tax reform and economic growth plan. families will be able to deduct the average cost of child care from their taxes including stay-at-home parents. because this deduction is capped it will be disproportionately and it will benefit working and middle class families.
got to take care of our m middle-class families. the parents will also be able to enroll a tax-free dependent care savings account for their children or elderly relatives. low-income households will benefit from an expanded earned income tax credit in the form of child care rebates and a matching $500 contribution for their savings account. a married couple earning $50,000 per year with two children and $8,000 in child care expenses will save 35% from their current tax bill. that's a tremendous savings. [ applause ] and they'll have a better life. a married couple earning $75,000 per year with two children and $10,000 in child care, expenses
will receive a 30% reduction in their tax bill from what they're paying right now. by contrast someone earning $5 million like the people in this room, will receive virtually no change in their tax bill at all. one of our greatest measures is our 15% business tax rate down from the current 35% rate, a reduction of more than 40%. i nknow that's what you people have been waiting for. an explosion of new businesses and new jobs will be created. it will be amazing to watch you watch and it will happen. we will also allow united states based manufacturers to fully expense the cost of new plants and equipment.
big, big deal. on top of that, we will bring back trillions in business wealth and this is wealth that's parked overseas. nobody knows how much it is. they say it's $2.5 trillion. i have people who think it's $5 trillion. we'll bring them back and it will be taxed only at the rate of 10% instead of 35%. and who would bring it back at 35%? obviously nobody because nobody is doing it. i think it's going to be something that will be so phenomenal, far beyond what people even think. by taxes it at 10% instead of 35%, all of this money will come roaring back into our country and lots of good things will start to happen. we will turn america into a new magnet for jobs, and that means
jobs in our poorest communities. so important. and right now we have companies leaving the kcountry because taxes are too high, but we actually have companies leaving the country to get their money. that's a first. that's happened. next comes regulations. one of the keys to unlocking growth is scaling back years of disastrous regulations unilaterally imposed by out-of-control bureaucrats. regulations have grown into a massive job killing industry it's one business i will absolutely put to an end day one. mra [ applause ] in 2015 alone, federal agencies issued over 3,300 final rules and regulations up from 2,400
the prior year. and reduce it is household wealth by almost $15,000. by congress and public safety and i will eliminate all needless and job killing on the books. there are plenty of them. [ applause ] the waters of the u.s. rule, it also means scrapping the clean power plan which the government it self estimates will cost $7.2 billion a year. this directive will shut down most if not all coal powered electricity plants all over the
country they're shutting down. remember what hillary clinton said. she wants to shut down the miners just like she wants to shut down the steel mills and shut down the steelworkers, and we're not going to let it happen. [ applause ] we're going to put our steal workers back to work. according to heritage foundation by 2030 energy restrictions will eliminate another half a million manufacturing jobs, reduce output and reduce incomes by $7,000 per person. and today you have workers. i see them all the time and meet them all the time. they're part of this massive group of people that have just come on to this movement they
make less money than 18 years ago, working much harder, oftentimes because of the disastrous obama care that we're going to repeal and remrplace, oftentimes they're working two jobs -- [ applause ] so they're working harder. they're older and they're making less. it's like me, i'm working harder than i've ever worked, also, but these are minor. who cares about that? hillary clinton wants to go even further and her plan could cost the economy $5 trillion. a trump administration will lift restrictions on all sources of american energy reduction. according to the institute this will increase the gdp by more than $100 billion annually. add over 5,000 new jobs annually.
increase wages by more than 30. increase federal, state, local tax revenues by almost $6 trillion over four decades. increase economic activity by more than $20 trillion over a 40-year period. in addition we will streamline the permittinging process for all energy infrastructure projects which are desperately needed. include the billions of dollars in projects held up by president obama currently being held up. finally comes trade. the foundation for everything. the trade deficit with the world is now almost $800 billion a
year. who is negotiating these deals? anybody in this room negotiating these wonderful deals? we have a deficit of $800 billion a year. that's going to change so fast. between world war i and the year 2000, the united states averaged a 3.5% growth rate. but after china joined the world trade organization our average growth rate has been reduce d t only 2%, manipulation which is a big one, and intellectual property theft have taken millions of jobs in wealth right out of our country. so sad we allowed this to happen. our incompetition incompetent
politicians were not pay iing attention. this should have never been allowed to have happened. there is no great secret that many of the special interests funding my opponent's campaign profiting from these terrible trade deals. they are terrible. they are terrible for everybody. they advise hillary clinton, the same people who gave us nafta, china's entry into the world trade organization, the job killing trade deal with south korea, another disaster, and now the transpacific partnership that they're pushing so strongly. they just race to get comments from, have been proven long for over such a long period of time. every prediction has crashed.
it has just crashed. they've been so absolutely wrong and they've been so bad for our country. wages have declined and households are making less today than they were in the year 2000. i proposed a detail plan to reform our trade policies and bring vast new jobs and wealth to america. we need our wealth back. this includes the following steps. i'm going to direct the secretary of congress to identify every violation of trade agreement that a foreign country is usinging to harm our country and our workers. that's what's happening. they're being harmed and our country is being harmed. i will use every tool under
american and international law to end these abuses, and i will use our greatest business leaders and finest negotiators, and i will tell you some of them are in this room right now. not all of them but some. and i know who you are. and, honestly, we're going to be calling on you because we have people negotiating the biggest deals in the world far bigger than your company deals. your company deals are like little deals by comparison. it's true. you take some of these big companies and you look at some of these trade deals, hate to say it, but your companies are peanuts. but we're going to use our best. right now we have political hacks. we're going to start with nafta which is causing so much damage to our country. we will entirely renegotiate into a deal that will either be
a good one for us as a country and for our workers or we will terminate it until a brand-new and productive deal can be signed. [ applause ] we'll also -- and we have to -- we're going it to keep america out of transpacific partnership unless we can do something that's phenomenal and i'm not seeing it right now, i can tell you that. i'm not seeing it. [ applause ] next, i'm going to instruct my treasury secretary to label china and i like china. they're my tenant. they buy condos all the time. they're just fine. we're going to apply tari if ffs to any country that devalues its
currency to gain an unfair advantage over the united states. they are a manipulator grandmaster level. our politicians don't even have a clue how to play the game. we have a trade deficit this year with china of approximately $500 billion. $200 billion, $400 billion for years. i'm going to instruct the united states trade representative to trade cases against china. china's unfair subsidy behavior is prohibited by the terms of its entrance into the w it to and i intend to enforce the rules. they're not playing fairly and
our politicians don't understand how to play the game. [ applause ] if china does not stop its activities including its theft of american trade secrets and intellectual properties, i will apply counter veiling duties until ceases and desists. you know what that means. just the single action of enforcing intellectual property rules alone -- just alone, would add millions of new american jobs. in true protection of america's intellectual property in china would add 2 million jobs a year within the united states every single year and we do nothing. we allow them to get away with
it. if you can get away with it, they're going to get away with it. we're going to stop the outflow of jobs from our country and open a new highway of jobs back into our country. we're proposing a $4.4 trillion tax cut that will score as a . $2.6 trillion under dynamic growth models which is how taxes should be scored. [ applause ] this includes the child care plan that we announced the other day. our economic team has further modeled that the growth induced savings from trade, energy, and regulation reform will shave at least another $1.8 trillion off the remaining debt.
that leaves around $800 billion. this money can all be saved through simple common sense reforms. if we spent on nondefense and nonentitlement programs we can save almost $1 trillion over the next decade. one penny. we can all do that. save over a trillion. this does not touch defense. our military is so depleted and that does not touch entitlements. the ten-year growth average, then our jobs proposed will actually reduce the deficit. people who are currently
receiving unemployment or welfare will finally be able to find jobs. this is the most pro-growth, pro-jobs, pro-family plan put forth perhaps in the history of our country. this is what our new future will look like. i'm going to get rid of massive amounts of unnecessary regulation. all of these regulations on your business and in your life, i'm going to unleash american energy, repeal and replace obamacare. i'm going to appoint justices of the supreme court who will follow the constitution. mra[ applause ] i'm going to rebuild our depleted military and take care of our vets who are treated so badly. [ applause ]
in many cases our vets are treated not nearly as well as people who come into our country illegally. we can't have that. i'm going to save your second amendment which is under siege. i'm going to stop illegal immigration and drugs from pouring into our country and tote ally poisoning our youth a others. it's a tremendous problem. and, yes, we will build the wall. the wall will be built. and just in case you're worried about who is going to pay for it, mexico will pay for it. being totally serious about that. mexico will pay for it. we look at the trade deficit we have with mexico. it's massive. the wall is peanuts compared to what we're talking about. mexico will pay for the wall and i will renegotiate our disastrous trade deals, especially nafta, and we will only make great trade deals that
put the american worker first and put the american worker back to work. that includes our miners and our steelworkers. they're going back to work. we will rebuild our roads. our bridges, our tunnels, our highways, our airports, schools, hospitals. we'll rebuild everything. american cars will travel the roads. american planes will soar the skies. and american ships will patrol the seas. american steel will send new skyscrapers into the clouds. american hands will rebuild this nation. american energy harvested from american sources will power this nation. american workers will be hired to do the job.
we will put new american metal and new american steel into the spine of this country. jobs will return, new factories will come rushing back to our shores. we will make america wealthy again. we will make america great again. thank you very much. god bless you. thank you. thank you very much. thank you. thank you. [ applause ] >> thank you, sir, we will now
move to our fire side chat format where we're pleased to have as our interviewer john paulson, a member of the economic club of new york board and president of paulson and company. we would also like to thank those members who took the time to share their thoughts and ideas on topics and questions for mr. paulson online so that they could be perhaps used in this conversation. i think we also had some members of the board and others provide input directly. thank everyone for that. the chairs, i think, are ready, gentlemen. please take your seats and let the conversation begin. [ applause ] >> thank you.
what happened with the teleprompter, man? hey, he's a little late, right? oh, well. i had nothing to do with it. >> first, let me thank you for speaking with us today. i think many of us found your economic plan very bold and ambitio ambitious. i was talking with marty feldstein -- excuse me, glenn hubbard. >> big difference. >> and, you know, we were talking about how many economists have resigned themselves to a low growth, 1.5%-2% range for the u.s. you believe with your economic policies we can grow 3.5% plus. could you summarize the key components of that plan and, if possible, quantify the contribution to the increased
growth? >> certainly. i think that i watched the world and i look at china and other countries and if china goes down with gdp to 7% or even 8%, it's like they'll have a revolution. and then what do they do? they start devaluing, devaluing, they do all sorts of things and get it back on track one way or the other, and i've had friends come to me that have been devastated, people that are manufacturers -- that are great manufacturers, very successful people, but they become less and less success ful because they can't beat the system. and this way, too, it's a rigged system. and they're almost doing well and then, boom, there's a mess of devaluation in china or other countries and there are plenty of other countries out there. some are hurting china now. the fact is they have 7% and you see it when they start dropping to 7% or 8% they consider that to be a disaster and yet we're
stuck at 1%, probably the real number is 1%, but certainly no more than 2%. and we try to live with it. we can't do that anymore. so we're going to unleash tremendous opportunity. we're bringing back the trillions of dollars that doesn't come into this country. and that does really -- i said it in my remarks, that does bring a lot of companies out. they go to get their money. they leave. not even because taxes are too high, they leave to get their money. we're going to unleash a lot with the regulations. i'll tell you the thing that most surprised me in going around because i've been -- i've been everywhere. i have been working -- just started on june 16th, who knew this was going to happen, right? but it started on june 16th and it's been an amazing thing. i speak to big businesses, the biggest businesses in the world but i also speak to the small business people and the farmers. if they had their choice between
this massive tax cut from 35% down to 15% or regulation relief they would take almost 100%. the regulations are a disaster. they're killing people. they're killing the farmers. they're killing the energy folks. there has to be regulation for safety for environment for certain reasons. but it has gone so crazy and it's gotten so excessive. but they would take that over taxes. we're going to unleash a tremendous number of jobs coming in plus great cutting, waste/fraud abuse. think of that word waste. with the penny plan -- just a penny out of every dollar. i know you can do that easily, but we have to appoint people to head these massive agencies. if they were companies, they would be very large companies. they would be up there -- some would be bigger than any of the
other companies. you take a penny off the dollar and you do that for a number of years and all of a sudden really great things start to happen. in addition to that we spent an amount, we're going it to increase, we have no choice, we're going to defend other countries and they are not paying us nearly what they should be. billions of dollars on defending other people. some of whom don't appreciate the fact we're defending them. they don't pay us. those countries will pay for the defense but it's a fan as it it particul fantastic number. it's a shocking number. it's a shocking number. we defend japan, germany, saudi
arabia, south korea. we have 28,000 soldiers right now. these are economic behemoths. wealthy countries. a general came to refute my statement. doesn't mr. trump know that japan pays 50% of the cost of its defense? and i said, why don't they pay 100%? the numbers are massive. a lot of good things will happen. >> thank you. >> thank you. on the corporate tax rate, the cornerstone of your economic policy is reducing the corporate tax rate to 15%. secretary of the lew proposed a 28% rate. the uk is at 20%. ireland is at 12.5%.
how did you settle on 15% as the target for the u.s.? >> well, a lot of that has to do with the cutting. i think we'll unleash something that is amazing and a lot of it is competition. ireland is the lowest, a little bit lower. we're the highest in the world in industrial cup tries. we added to that the cutting, the cost cutting, and there's tremendous fat. it's interesting when all of us buy companies we like to buy companies that are poorly run. we're not a perfectly running machine. tremendous fraud and abuse.
it's politically motivated. they'll buy equipment that's not as good as equipment they want. the equipment they want, the generals want, it's better and less expensive. we have so many things we can do if we do it properly. we're going to make america great again. [ applause ] >> now it's time for the issue in reducing tax rates, the impact on the deficit. so what offsets would you propose to compensate for the reduced revenue? you mention you believe over time your economic policy can be revenue neutral? >> we think, and hopefully beyond that. eventually with time this will work out, absolutely.
in terms of neutrality, the amount of business that we generate. you have it to look at the list of companies. this they're taking all their small cars and will make them in mexico. it's like a story in mexico. we're going to keep our companies here. our companies are leaving us because taxes are so high. our companies are leaving us because they can't bring their money back in, because of regulation. the regulators know they're leaving us. number wone, we're going to kee companies here. they're not going to be leaving anymore because they'll have a better deal than where to go but, importantly, we're also coupling that with cutting costs.
there are many costs we're going to be cutting and will be enhanced by certain things like i told you about with the military and other countries which a lot of people didn't even know. i don't think people knew we defend, as an example, germany or japan south korea and we're defending south korea. saudi arabia as an example we know. lots of wealth. lots of money. you could ask how long would saudi arabia be there if we weren't defending them? i think we should but we have to be compensated properly for that defense. i'm sure they'll be thrilled to hear that. mra[ applause ] >> onish. >> you that came up previously
was the potential for default. a perfect credit history. is there any scenario you would consider defaulting on the u.s. debt? >> no. no. you could buy back debt. i don't know, somebody put that back. buy back debt. this isn't like you're building a real estate project and the market crashes and you have your shot at a bank. i love those days. i loved that. i love buying back debt and negotiating debt. with the united states you're talking about something beyond a gold standard. the answer is no. you can do things but, no, the debt of this country is sacred, 100% sacred. you have to do it. >> regarding regulation you said
we have too much regulation. and that excess regulation impedes growth. what would be your strategy for reducing excessive regulation? >> well, i go back to the heads of the various groups, agencies, all of the different parcels of government. we put, honestly we put political people in. people that gave contributions, we put people that work the system. when you say can you cut 1% off your budget they look like this is impossible whereas people in this room, they hear 1%, they say, i can do it all in one year. i can get it down to 25%, maybe more.
take it easy. just relax. when you hear 1% for ten years, it's a massive difference. 1% a year for ten years. so i would really have it done at the level of the group running whatever individual thing within government they're running and they'll be able to do it if we have the right people. we don't have the right people. we have people had who shouldn't be doing what they're doing, people under them that are farr more competent they they lose respect for the system when they see what's coming. and i can't tell you how strongly i believe this. the trade deals are so bad. nafta has destroyed the manufacturing leg of our country. you look at places upstate new york where they lost 40% of their manufacturing and they're going to lose a lot more before it's over. hi hillary clinton said she would
bring jobs back to new york -- she meant new york state, upstate new york, outer long island. it's unbelievable. building after building that's empty. they left. they all left. so when we negotiate great trade deals -- and we're not even including that to a large extent in the numbers that we're giving you, when we take nafta and make it a two-way highway, not a one way so that, yes, things go out but we have at least equal and i mean at least because we have a lot of catching up to do. they have stripped this country of its manufacturing jobs and companies have destroyed companies. thousands and thousands, millions of jobs. we'll get that back. we're going to get that back. whenever i talk about cost cutting and balancing, a big part will be great trade deals. a man to negotiate, i think i'll put him in charge of china. you know what, we'll do very well. just put him in the room for a few days.
we have to use -- when china enters that negotiation, they come in with 20 people that are the toughest, smartest, meanest. they don't say good morning, isn't it a lovely day, isn't it wonderful? how did the yankees do last night? there's no talk. it's like we get down to business, boom. no games. this is why we have deficits of $500 billion with one country. we rebuilt china. and i say that with respect for china. i have a great relationship with china. they used to tell me, before i announced i was running -- i have many friends from china, the biggest people, the richest people, they cannot believe what china gets away with. they said we can't believe it. when he said i was running for
president, they called and said, we didn't mean that. they didn't know this was going to happen. they would say, your government is stupid. now they deny they've ever said that. >> on staffing, how would you run a government to make it more effective? what would be your criteria in choosing the administrato administrators? >> competence, love of what they're doing, how they get along with people, references. no different than when you're running a company how you hire top people. it would be no different. the government, you need people with heart. you need people that are truly,
truly capable and you need -- i think so much has to do with past history, how have they done, how has it all worked out. you under what i mean. we do -- people are so politi l politically correct, they're afraid to walk, to talk, they can't speak. they're afraid they're going to say the wrong word and they'll be shunned from society. don't worry. it only lasts for about a week if that happens. but we have to stop being so politically correct. we have to get the best and the finest. if we don't we'll be in trouble for a long period of time and maybe never come out of it. i honestly believe, and i'm not saying it because it's myself, this is the last time -- this is going to be the last election we have a chance to make it strong again, all of the things that we want to see.
for many years, many decades, and because it's going down. the supreme court justices that i told you about before if they put certain people on the supreme court our country will be a whole different country. we're going to be a large-scale version of venezuela. we're going to be a totally different deal. this is the last chance our country has to really get better, to get well. it's so important, not just because of me but the ideas that we have. the ideas that we need to do what we have to do. i think it's going to be a very important election and it that's why we're seeing such enthusiasm. we go make a speech, john, and
we have 25,000 people show up and 30,000 people and we announced one day -- we had one in pensacola the other day -- we had massive, tens of thousands of people showed up. we announced a day and a half before the speech on twitter. we don't even take ads. people want to see great things happen with this country. the people really love this country. even other countries want to see great things happen because it's so important. this is going to be the most important election we're going to have for many many decades and i'm not sure you're going to have a second chance at it. [ applause ] >> donald, on jobs, what industries do you expect would benefit from your economic plan it to create high-paying jobs
going forward? >> i think h&r block would be a disaster. we're simplifying -- how about people -- the tax is so complicated. you need 180 iq it to under it. and people have to go and have their tax returns done. when they're done, you have ten different tax people and ten different answers to the same person. the whole thing is crazy. so that would be one industry that wouldn't do well. but i think almost all industries -- i can tell you an industry that will do well and an industry that we can use and i know prices are low now, but when prices go up is the energy industry. we have amazing people and they're being decimated, absolutely decimated. we found out whether it's
fracking. we have more than just about anybody in the world. our land is so valuable because of what's underneath it. we have to be very environmentally sound. it's important. it's incredible when you look at what's happened. we'll be stuck in the middle east forever. we have to get out of that war. we have to knock out isis. i didn't want to be in that war. i wasn't a politician. nobody cared. we have no choice. the way they got out was bad to get out so quickly and to not leave anybody behind. you see the atrocities they committed. yesterday i guess it was 22 or 24 people hung from racks of a slaughterhouse and throats cut. i mean, can you imagine this? nobody has ever heard of things like this before.
and we talk about waterboarding. it's an incredible thing. we're not playing on the same playing field, but if you look at the atrocities committed just yesterday with meat hooks. we have no choice but to totally decimate isis. we have to do it. we have to do it rapidly. we have no choice. and -- and then we have to get back to rebuilding our country. we have to rebuild the infrastructure of our country. we have to rebuild our country because it's a mess. >> last question. if you, if you were to advise the fed, what would you advise them to do regarding interest rate policy? >> well, as a real estate person, interest rate, of course o, but i think what's going to happen is you're goung to have them until january 1st because obama wants to go, he wants to play golf and leave. he doesn't want to have any stock market disruptions.
and i think there and i said, i think the fed is is being controlled politically. they're not raising rates. and they're being controlled politically. i think they're going to be low until i don't know if they're going to have a raise, but they're going to be low until tend of the year. obama, he wants to go out. shouldn't be working this way. shouldn't be discussing it. martin may or may not disagree with me. i just think it's a terrible thing that's happening because we're doing it for political. i believe the fed is very political. it's become very political. like many other groups. in this country. beyond anything i would have ever thought b possible. and so, i think you're going to have low interest rates until the end of the year. maybe no increase at all. and the market will stay artificially high. and then we're fwoipg to have to see what happens after that, but i think it's, they're not doing the right job. now, with all of that being said, you know, all my life, i like low interest rates. can you imagine? because i'm doing this, i can't
even take advantage of it, but that's okay. i will say it's very, it's become in my opinion, the fed has become extremely political. i don't think they would do, i really believe if it was a political decision or the right decision, they're going to go with the political decision every single time. >> well, that con clouds our fire side chat. once again on behalf of myself and everyone here, thank you very much for joining us today. >> thank you very much, everybody. thank you. >> thank you. >> okay, that is the hedge fund manager john paulson along with the republican nominee for president. donald trump. at the economic club of new york at the waldorf astoria hold in new york city. they wrap up their fire side chat there. mr. trump with a few sinkers for the fed. that interest rates will likely remain low until january and
that the stock market will stay artificially high as a result. those were his words. it did fold low a speech by mr. trump in which he laid out his plan for economic rerival. promising 3.5% gdp annually with the goal of 4%. saying even better than that, an immediate halt to new regulation says his policies will create 25 million jobs in ten years, no tpp. the trans pacific partnership. even if passed by a lame duck congress. saying quote, i'll bring prosperity toer part of the country. the only thing hillary clinton can offer is a welfare check that her policies won't create a single job. john harwood listening outside the hotel. what did you make of this peach? >> i thought the question answer period was interesting because you heard members trying to press him to be nor specific on
how he would achieve his goals. he wasn't that specific when asked about what sofrt approach he would take to regulation. said he would put good people in, not political people, but people who could make better decisions. wasn't specific about how you achieve 3.5% growth. the american society is getting older. we have diminishing labor force and he's talking about halting illegal immigration, even cutting levels of legal immigration, so it's not sure you you can achieve that level of given the trends in the united states. i also thought it was striking as you mentioned, scott, the welfare check terminology he aplied to hillary clinton's economics. we've got a very racially polarized electorate and we know that the debates over welfare that cull min nated with welfare reform in the 1990s were racially charged i think he was
play i playing to the notion that significant number of americans have that nonwhite americans are just dependent on welfare programs and kind of sharpens that divide between those noncollege whites supporting him and the hillary clinton coalition, heavy with nonwhite voters. >> he began by citing some polls that suggest he's ahead now in some key states as you know better than most, the campaign lately has been won about character. more than policy. and the health of one candidate as in mrs. clinton. do you think now that trump has given another what we can term a major economic speech, really following that one in detroit several weeks ago tharks the campaign is now going to be focused once again on these type of issues, this message going forward? >> actually, i don't, scott. i think this is a campaign that isn't really about ideologies or
issues. this is a highly personal race, choice between two nominees that the american public doesn't feel very good about. that donald trump has been, he's had the momentum. he's been getting close to hillary clinton. new "new york times" cbs poll this morning, just behind two points nationally in a two-person race. tied with hillary clinton, 42-42, in a four-person race. but i think it's really about the fundamental nature of these candidates. and the nature of the two coalitions. hillary clinton's doing better than republicans have in the past. with college educated white voters. donald trump's doing well with noncollege whites. and that's a key split, but the african-american vote, overwhelmingly for hillary clinton. hispanic vote overwhelmingly for hillary clinton. she needs both of those to be the case for her to get to a n
winning number, but i don't think it's about economic philosophy in the end. >> as part of the policy, john, it's interesting. he promises 3.5% annual gdp, the goal of four mr. trump saying he can do better than that. 25 million jobs over ten years. at the same time, you have oxford economics saying the trump presidency would cost the economy a trillion dollars over the next five years from a loss of jobs and spendinging and possible trade war. on the note of trade, he took china on once again, head on, saying that he would say that they are and label them a currency manipulator. >> he would. even though of course the value of the chinese currency has been aappreciating. certainly, they have manipulated their currency in the past as part of an export promotion policy. that's changed somewhat lately, but he's playing on those old concerns about china's behavior.
there are many other concerns he talked about some of those as well, including intellectual property protection, but the trance pacific partnership is an attempt to as the president has argued, let the united states set the rules of the road more so than china, especially that part of the world. but of course, donald trump's been joined by hillary clinton in opposing that deal, but you're right. the views on trade are why many economists say that donald trump would have a counterproductive effect on u.s. policy. including the head of the counsel of economic advisers under george w. bush. he says trump's views are an thet cal to his views on how to promote american prosperity and growth. >> john harwood outside the waldorf astoria. thank you for that. i have the traders in front of me today for the last moments of
our program. john, i'll go to you first. you listened to the whole speech. what did you make of it? >> i thought he handled himself well in font of what would be a pretty hostile crowd. most of those people have written checks to hillary clinton. right? most of the wall street folks in that room have written checks to hillary clinton. >> several members of mr. trump's economic team. specifically -- >> mr. paulson. >> specifically to the comments about what the fed won't do. the fact that the market will remain artificially high. sxwl so, within one paragraph, you're saying the economy is a dase disaster. >> but you know, this is a campaign that loves conspiracy theorys. >> that also has strong momentum right now. i think nothing b about that speech is going to derail that. i thought it was a very good
speech. >> he sound much more presidential. >> i agree, it was a good speech. >> but obama in past has had -- >> let's wrap this up. for all of you that the markets are having a pretty good day. "power lunch" is going to pick that up as well. d guys? >> here's what's on the menu for "power lunch." instant reaction to trump's economic plan. steve is going to choin join us ahead. plus, you'll hear from elizabeth warren, why she's calling for for jail time for some of wall street big bankers and apple doing something it hasn't done in seven years. "power lunch" starts right now. welcome to "power lunch." th