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tv   Worldwide Exchange  CNBC  September 22, 2016 5:00am-6:01am EDT

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good morning. stocks rising around the world today as the fed kicks the can on raising rates. under pressure on capitol hill. mylan's ceo defends her company's epipen price hike. and decision 2016. a new nbc news poll finds hillary clinton leading donald trump nationally but the race continues to get tighter. it's thursday, september 22, 2016, "worldwide exchange" begins right now. ♪ good morning.
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welcome to "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. i'm sara eisen. >> it is the first day of autumn today. >> fall. >> autumn. even if i say your word, you would pick me up for saying it wrong. >> fall. >> happy fall, happy autumn. the summer was wonderful. over too soon. it's throwback thursday today. the theme is coming, what is it? a fall theme. look at that. >> let's get you caught up to speed on the markets post federal reserve and post rally day on wall street. the market actually climbed more than 1%. it looks like futures are pointed higher again. a smaller amount this morning. dow futures up 20. s&p up 1.2. nasdaq futures up 6. the ten-year treasury note yield the fed decides to pause and hold off, wait for the economy to have room to run. the ten-year yield at 1.64.
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yields came lower after the fed. a lot of focus on the forecast or the dots for when fed members think the rate hikes will come and a lot look forward to 2017 where they pared it down from three hikes to two hikes. >> the pace of hikes might be slower. also focus on the division in terms of voting, three people dissenting. people saying it's not just so simple, hawkish versus dovish, all sorts of intellectual disagreements. >> i think that's good. janet yellen addressed that, she said we don't withinenn't want the same page. the three dissents came from three fed presidents, not governors of the fed. the governors are more closely in her circle. that would be a bigger deal and
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real sign that there is disagreement. we knew the regional fed presidents would disagree. that's why the markets were so confused in the commentary in the lead-up. >> all sectors were up, consumer staples and banks were the laggards but still in positive territory. it was applauded by markets, but not too positively. let's look at today's other top story. we've had a second night of violent protests in charlotte, north carolina following the fatal police shooting of a black man on tuesday. police firing tear gas at demonstrators. one person is in critical condition after being shot by another civilian. north carolina's governor declared a state of emergency. we'll have a live report from charlotte in a bit. >> let's check in on the global markets. as for the european markets, the european equity trade just getting going here. looking positive. energy producers and materials are leading gains in europe toad
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on the back of higher oil prices. the german dax up 1.3%. the ftse 100 in the uk is lagging on the second the only one of the group not up more than 1%. it has been outperforming so far lately. italy and spain both higher by more than 1%. japanese markets in asia were closed for the autumnal equinox holiday. >> you can say it. >> maybe in japan that's what it is called. they've been celebrating autumn a lot lateliment. >> they have a lot of autumn days off. >> why don't we have a fall day off? >> we have thanksgiving. your first thanksgiving. we see gains across the board after the fed stayed on hold. that eases some pressure for emerging markets, even if it's in the near-term. we're seeing currencies rally. >> when it m comes to thanksgivg
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in a work context, what will you be most thankful for? >> you and my 3:00 a.m. wakeup. >> don't sour it. just for me. perfect, likewise. let's look at broader markets quickly. oil prices strong yesterday up again today. of course the dollar softening in regards to the fed decision has helped all commodities including oil prices. the dollar did slip a half percent yesterday against a broad basket of currencies. oil prices today, 45.8 for wti. up the best part of 1%. the dollar, let's look at that. broader index down about a half percent. a bit more movement today in the opposite direction. the dollar bouncing back against the yen. up a half percent. it is, though, however a little weaker against the euro and the pound. so, some more confusing movement
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there. >> dollar/yen has been all over the place. 1% moves in both directions after the boj went into confusing uncharted territory, begging the yield curve. we'll see what happens. a lot of meacommentary overnigh thinks it's creative at least that they're getting away from traditional policy levers which has not seemed to work, but they need fiscal policy, structural changes, is anything going to work? >> the response by markets has been better than some others. you remember the temper tantrum when the fed tried to finesse things, the markets didn't welcome that. still need to see if this feeds through to the actual economy in japan. a look at oil prices which have performed well in recent days. >> let's focus in on the top story. the fed decision. janet yellen telling the market
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she would expect to see a rate hike this year even though they paused in yesterday's meeting. our senior economics reporter, steve leaiesman joins us with h view. you had a chance to digest everything. >> will you write down the big numbers of 3, 2, 1 1/2. >> he's writing it. >> i'll ask you what those three numbers represent. here's what the fed did, they gave a generally upbeat view on the economy saying job gains were solid, household spending growing strongly. the case had grown stronger for a rate hike but held off on raiding rates for the time being. >> most of us judge that the case for an immediate increase in the federal funds rate is stronger but that it would be sensible given the finding of a bit more running room to wait to see some continued progress, evidence that we continue to
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progress towards our objectives. so, for the time being, we are going to watch incoming evidence and you can see from the s&p that most participants do expect that one increase in the federal funds rate will be appropriate this year. >> the fed's case with room to run comes from this chart it shows job growth has been strong over the past year, almost double what the fed thinks is needed to bring down the unemployment rate. but the unemployment rate has barely moved, hovering around 4.9%. this happened because 2.4 million people have come back to the work force in the past year. some coming you a the sidelines who have dropped out. the fed wants to see how far this process can run. job gain with no tightening in the job market. so that could mean a rate hike in december. but maybe not. now back to the three numbers, did you figure it out?
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>> the number of hikes from last year has been falling? >> no. they are the benchmark rates of the following central banks, the philippines at 3%, new zealand at 2, australia at 1.5. all three banks stood firm in the wake of the fed's decision. >> norway this morning also stood pat. >> i don't know norway's benchmark rate, do you? >> it's higher. >> i know they didn't change it today. >> that's a bonus question i didn't have on the syllabus. >> there you go. >> the fed is not in a vacuum, everybody is looking to them. >> reacting. >> they're reacting. it feels like we're in a post qe world. i'm not sure what that is. they're still being easy but want to transition no something normal. if you're a long-term investor globally how do you navigate these waters?
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>> i think it's worth while looking at what wias thought to be the answer to the question. the outlook has come down substantially a quarter point for '16, 50 basis points for '17. 50 for '18. that orange line now where the fed is is where the cnbc fed survey was. the fed has followed the market lower. i think you can rely on banks being low and rising gradually over the next couple years. another great question at the fed yesterday, other than mine, how do you have rates going up so much when you have growth coming down so much. even that new lower chart may not be accurate as to where it is. it will be interesting to see if
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the market steps down again and decides if the fed is here, i'm going to be here again. >> the other thing that chart says is the only place to watch preview and analysis of the fed is cnbc. >> great point, willfred. excellent point. >> i was reading paul donovan's analysis, he said the most interesting thing was the depth of division. and as we look ahead to 2017, i harder to predict how they'll act in each meeting. and we should try to step back from it all. it's very unclear how they're all making their individual minds up now. >> i'm not sure that's right. sometimes dissent leads you astray. sometimes dissent leads the way. it's possible in this case that dissent is leading the way.
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maybe they didn't get enough in the statement. but what that means and tells you is the next move is going to be a rate hike. two different metrics here. it's been since 2014 that we had three dissents. i read someplace else, i haven't checked this, it's been five years sense we had three hawkish dissents. it's been quite awhile. the dissent in 2014 was lakota dissenting in a dovish way and fisher from dallas and plusser from philadelphia dissenting in a hawkish way. my consensus is moving towards a rate hike, but we have to figure out this new metric room to run. how do you measure if we can keep bringing people into the work force and not lower the unemployment rate? we'll be looking at wages and
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inflation. to me it puts the fed governor at the center here. she made the major speech on this a week or so ago, and this seems to be animating the federal reserve. >> today's twitter question is the fed holds off for now but will it hike in 2016, yes november, yes december, no, not at all this year what say you? >> i think they'll go in december if the data remains reasonably positive on the job market. >> you and 45% currently of the twitter universe. steve liesman, thank you. good to see you. on the agenda today, investors will get a pair of economic reports. weekly jobless claims out at 8:30 a.m. eastern. filings are expected to hold steady. at 10:00 a.m., look for home sales. auto parts retailer, auto zone
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will report earnings before the opening bell. ecb president mario draghi gives his keynote address at a conference in frankfurt at 9:00 a.m., and mark carney speaks in berlin today at 1:00. >> yes, more central bank news. >> you mean that genuinely. heather bresch got grilled on capitol hill yesterday. lawmakers blasting the drugmaker's steep price increases of its epipen. it was said they jacked up the price of the life saving product to get filthy rich. have a look. >> after mylan takes our punches, they'll fly back to their mansions in their private jets and laugh all the way to the bank. while constituents suffer, file for bankruptcy, and watch their children get sicker or die. >> one lawmaker noted that mylan
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said it would soon sell a generic version of its happy pen for about half of the price on after the price increases ignited national uproar. mylan's chief defends the company's response to the controversy. >> i'm honored and proud to be the ceo of mylan. i spent my career working to break down barriers to access and expand access to high quality medicine and lower healthcare cost. i wish we had better anticipated the magnitude and acceleration of the rising fenl issues for a growing minority of patients who may have ended up paying the full wholesale acquisition costs or more. we never intended this. we listened and focused on this issue and came up with an immediate and sustainable solution. >> shares of mylan in yesterday's session closed -- looks like in the premarket -- they closed higher and are higher a half percent in the premarket. this will be a company and industry that continues to face
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political scrutiny. >> whether it's a political race or hearings, you guys do drama very well. >> so do you guys in parliament. leon cooperman is telling investors he and his hedge fund, omega advisers, refuse to settle insider trading charges. the s.e.c. charged the 73-year-old and his $5 billion firm yesterday with illegal trading in atlas pipeline partners six years ago. cooperman says he plans on fighting the charges and will continue to envest money for clients. coming up, the top stocks to watch. first our facebook and twitter question of the day. it is on the topic the federal reserve. holding off now, but will they raise rates in 2016? the fed is projecting it will. do you agree? november, december, not at all?
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send us your response. we'll show you the answers later in the show.
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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." good morning. got a few stocks to watch today. starting with redhat reporting better than second quarter results. numbers coming in above analyst estimates. they benefitted from solid demand and continue to close a number of deals over $1 million.
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jabil scircuits fourth quarter profit falling by half. they plan to streamline capacity and support infrastructure which will result in $200 million in charges over a two-year period. bed bath & beyond same-store sales fell more than 1%. they are still sticking for their profit outlook for the year which gave investors a bit of a relief. >> great store. >> bed bath & beyond. >> yeah. big fan. still to come on "worldwide exchange," a new poll finds hillary clinton leading donald trump nationally. the race continues to get tighter. the latest from the campaign trail on this, the first day of the fall when we come back. what's the value of capital? what's critical thinking like? a basketball costs $14. what's team spirit worth? (cheers)
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[rock music playing] announcer: don't let e. coli mosh with your food. an estimated 3,000 americans die from a foodborne illness each year. so, always separate raw meat from vegetables. keep your family safe at developing story this morning, a state of emergency declared in charlotte, north carolina after a second night of protests over a fatal police shooting turned vile when. sarah rosario joins us from charlotte with the latest. >> it is calm here in charlotte, much different than a couple hours ago when hundreds of people took to the streets protesting the shooting death of 43-year-old keith scott. we have anger and racial tensions boiling over after yet
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another shooting. >> a second night of protests brings out police in riot gear. hundreds taking to the streets to protest the shooting death of of 43-year-old keith scott. last night one person was shot. the gunman was not a police officer. >> i don't know. they shot somebody. there was blood, a crowd of people. i don't know. >> the violence continued with several people injured including office officers. on tuesday night demonstrators shut down an interstate, looting trucks, setting fires and throwing rocks injuring 16 officers near the scene where keith scott was killed earlier that day. police justified the shooting saying scott ignored commands to drop his weapon, despite others
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saying scott did not have a gun and was holding a book, and was shot while waiting for his son to get off the bus. an evening beginning with a peaceful candlelight vigil was soon overshadowed with a display of violence. today the governor has called in the national guard and highway patrol to help officers in charlotte. the officer accused of killing keith scott is now on paid administrative leave. sarah rosario, willfred, back to you. to politics, less than a week to go before the first pittal debate and a new "wall street journal" poll puts hillary clinton back in the lead. tracie potts joins us with more. >> reporter: in the lead but not on the trail today, presumably off preparing for the debate on monday. donald trump is in pennsylvania today with a big energy speech this morning, rally tonight and both are commenting on that unrest that sarah was talking about in charlotte.
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presidential candidates are reacting to the violence in north carolina. a battleground state. the police shooting of an unarmed man in tulsa, oklahoma. >> it's unbearable. it needs to become intolerable. >> reporter: donald trump at a town hall said to stop inner city crime -- >> do stop and frisk. >> reporter: democrats point out a federal court declared it unconstitutional. >> they look for the votes of people living in the inner cities and then they say we'll see you later in four years. >> reporter: trump's down 7 poents among likely voters in the latest "wall street journal" nbc news poll. clinton's team says she's practicing not sure as they put it which trump will show up. she's out with new web videos hitting trump on not releasing his taxes yet. >> you think it's like what's wrong. >> reporter: and using his charity's money to pay off legal
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settlements. >> there's nothing like doing things with other peoples money. >> reporter: trump's aligning himself with former rival ted cruz, backing cruz's push to extend governmental authority over the internet. here there's a top democrat asking the irs to look into the trump foundation. the agency is already looking into the clinton foundation. >> thank you very much for that. still to come, the top stories, including global stocks rallying on the back of the fed decision. much more analysis and what to expect in markets today. don't go anywhere. narrator: the best place to find adventure... kubo: come on, this way. narrator: in the forest. kubo: wow. narrator: so grab your loved ones monkey: don't even. narrator: and explore a world of possibilities. kubo: it's beautiful. narrator: visit to find the closest forest or park to you.
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good morning. stocks rally as the fed holds rates steady, reaction from well known investors coming up. >> yahoo! reportedly hit by a massive data breach exposing millions of user accounts. details ahead. and going for number one. new rankings of the world's top universities. it's thursday, september 22, 2016, you're watching "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. ♪ good morning. welcome back to "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. i'm sara eisen. >> i'm willfred frost. it's the first day of the fall. got it right? >> good job. >> sad to see the seasons change. so we're playing the best songs of summer throughout the rest of
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the show. >> good theme there. >> let's check in on global markets. a nice rally yesterday after the fed did not change rates, pretty much 1% across the board. led higher by energy and commodities. the softer dollar and reaction in no hike in rates allowed commodities to rally and the sectors did as well. banks and consumer staples were underperformers. a broad rally yesterday. markets expected to open higher. the dow 60 points higher, the s&p, 6 points, and the nasdaq 7 points higher. basic materials and energy materials are leading the way in the european markets. germany up 1.7%. france up a similar amount. the ftse 100 up 1%. asian trade has been positive. various factors playing into asian markets the last couple of
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days after the bank of japan decision as well. japan is closed today as well, another autumnal day off for traders. hong kong and shanghai up a half percent. as for the broader market, oil. the next big meeting is next wednesday when you have a meeting of oil producers getting together in algeria discussing whether they want to freeze production. wti firmly above 45, 45.75, up almost a percent. brent up above $47 a barrel. 47.16. gasoline declines. it's been strong this week. as for the ten-year treasury note yield, yields have come down a bit. buying of treasuries on this idea that the fed was going to raise rates at a slower pace, specifically in 2017. that's what the forecast or the dot plot showed. you saw reaction to buying
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treasuries at the long end of the curve. the 10-year and the 20-year. as for the u.s. dollar, weaker across the board after the u.s. federal reserve decided to stand pat. it was interpreted as a dovish outlook on interest rates. the dollar is stronger against the japanese yen which is something japan wants to see. hovering above the 100 level. something japan does not want to see it fall below. the dollar is weaker against the euro and the pound in reaction to the federal reserve. gold on the back of that weaker dollar has been selling off since the federal reserve. it's a bit stronger this morning. a lot of gold traders saying it's a confusing meg, take it for what you will. the fed did leave an interest rate increase on the table for 2016. >> though gold did gain yesterday. that was the one surprise. gold up 1%, up for the week as a whole. more in markets in just a second. first a developing story
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overnight. a second night of violent protests in charlotte, north carolina following the fatal police shooting of a black man on tuesday. police firing tear gas at demonstrators. one person in critical condition after being shot by another civilian. north carolina's governor has declared a state of emergency. back to our top market story. the fed decision, janet yellen telling the market she would expect to still see a rate hike this year. >> most of us judge that the case for an immediate increase in the federal funds rate is stronger, but that it would be sensible given the finding of a bit more running room to wait to see some continued progress, evidence that we continue to progress towards our objectives. so for the time being, we will watch incoming evidence and you can see from the s&p that most participants do expect that one
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increase in the federal funds rate will be proaappropriate th year. >> bill gross having an emotional reaction to the decision. >> i'm choked with emotion and hardly able to speak. after hawkish talks and saying there would be two hikes in 2016, they deferred to interest rate hikes and provide savers with a bit of thin gruel to work with to provide for education retirement and healthcare needs. so i would say if not now, when? >> gross said all the fed contra detection has left investors confused. >> that was funny. i think dissents creates some confusion. there are three dissents as liesman told us early. the most since 2014.
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the question is does it portend a divided fed? for now it's not so big because they are from regional presidents, and not the governors. >> i'm surprised by the extent of the words by bill gross in terms of saying if not now when. no one expected september after the last couple of weeks. >> she said going in this week there is a 50/50 shot for september. >> he's been calling for one forever. no one was really expecting it going into this meeting. i think if at the end of the year we don't have any hike at all, that's more of a surprise. >> we have a reaction from jeffrey gundlach on "fast money" last night. land landon dowdy has those
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headlines. >> he said a lot of uncertainty ahead of a potential rate hike in december. >> i think december is a luhuge who knows at this point. think of the magnitude the fed guessing for today's move or nonmove changed over the past three months. here we got three months which including three presidential debates, presidential election. this is highly unknown what will happen in december. i'm not surprised that the work function that shows the embedded probability of the fed moving from the short end of the bond market is right about 50%. that is probably what -- any rational person would put the odds at, there's too much wood to chop economically and politically between now and december. >> he said what investors should be looking at more globally is the potential for central banks to switch tactics. pointing out the boj policy
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decision did not move markets like thought, and they may be sniffing out a pivot to fiscal stimulus. he declined to name individual companies he's shorting, but said some are restaurant, retail and airline stocks. that gets to our facebook and twitter question of the day. on the fed, the fed holds off for now, will it end up raising rates in 2016? it looks like now the plurality, willfred, of voters say no hike in 2016. they don't believe the fed. the second 41% in december. 13% say yes in november. that comes right before an election. david rosenberg, fan of the show writing in saying dissents are no big deal. volcker had nine, grown span five, bernanke two. went to make much of that. >> i'm interesting to see how close it is. december, 41%. i would have thought that would be the winner. >> in the bond market, they
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think 60% they move in december. i think it depends on what happens in the economy between now and december. last time around we had a weaker than expected jobs report if that turns around, you will see december probability go up. all the focus yesterday on the fed. today, a couple of economic reports. weekly jobless reports, filings expected to hold steady at 260,000. 10:00 a.m., august existing home sales. autozone reports earnings before the bell, and mario draghi gives a keynote at a conference in frankfurt. and then mark carney is speaking in berlin. yahoo! expected to confirm a massive data breach exposing millions of user accounts.
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re/code says the breach is widespread and sear yo. earli serious. the data includes user names, password passwords, personal information and birth dates. now for some top trending stories. hollywood's finest appearing in a humorous video giving the reasons for why it's so important to vote in this upcoming election. the new super pac known as save the day is led by the writer and director of "the avenge errs." the video comes days before a national voter registration day on tuesday. >> not major celebrities, are
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they? >> i don't recognize most of these people. do you recognize all of them? >> no. >> who is that? >> julianne moore. >> i saw her. the next one. >> hoping for high turn out. >> i wonder if it moves the needle. everyone expects hollywood. we got a good glimpse of this at emmys. they assume hollywood comes out for hillary. >> we harken back to brexit a lot, but the establish. was encouraging high turnout thinking high turnout was encouraging for their vote. we got super high turnout, and it was a big push for the brexit vote. in n out is opening up a burger store in the uk for four hours yesterday. one londoner who missed out saying not being able to get in
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the in n out pop up yesterday pains me more than words can describe. i think you're overplaying it. it's not all that. >> you're the only one. it's such a cult favorite. >> i think it's like another fast food place. >> are you a shake shack over in n out? >> i'm a bayern burger. a chain in london. >> the u.s. loses its status as the home of the top university. oxford is now listed in first place. this is the first time in 13 years that a united states school is not on top. you got the first one, but none of the other top ten. penn state is there. >> hold on. read it again? who was fourth?
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>> university of cambridge. >> cambridge. i'm happy that oxford is ahead of the british ones. >> cal burkely, downity of chicago tchic for tenth. >> coming up, laurent potdevin on millimet "mad money ". >> i think jim should do that with us wearing lululemon pants. i'm anne. i'm a scientist. why don't you let me...
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welcome back. now time for our must reads. my pick in the financial times totalled the trumpian threat to global order. a lot written from op-ed writers on the u.s. election in a global context because of the u.n. general assembly happening in new york. world leaders talking behind closed doors about the election. the bigger changer lies in mr. trump's promise to withdraw, tear up trade deals, throw up trade barriers against china, e
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repudiate the paris climate change agreement. his policies are shot through with contradictions but constant is his belligerent isolationism. america will go it alone. hyper-realism some call it. so controversial of trump's policies of america first in a globalized world. a lot of op-ed writers are writing about that. you found something that went the other way. >> you went for the financial times. today i went for the "wall street journal." >> i wanted a good global view. >> mine is titled loyalty can't make me vote for clinton. it's written by andrew stein, a life-long democrat. he goes through some reasons why that is a justified point to make. his father was a new york city democratic chairman, et cetera. he writes i believe my party has
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become the party of the elites and money class and deserted his mission as party of the working class and disadvantaged. he once said president kennedy said of his speech writer, sometimes party loyalty asks too much, this is the case in this election. he says clinton is the personification of the establishment. the reason i bring it up is because we've seen quite a few high profile republicans saying they're not voting for trump, less democrats. he's not a high profile democrat but a significant democrat saying it the other way around. interesting to see there's both sides. >> party loyalty shifting. we are approaching the top of the hour. the team is getting ready for "squawk box." becky quick joins us from new york with a look at what's coming up. good morning. >> good morning. we'll be kicking around the politics question, too. because this is an election like
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one we've not seen in recent memory. all of these things happening, we're trying to look at it from the business point of view. there's a study out from the committee for responsible budget that looks at the latest economic proposals from trump and clinton, we will be talking about that with a number of guests today, including ben white and senator david purdue of georgia who will be weighing in on this. senator purdue is a republican. you're right, things are different that time. the parties are changing. candidates are changing. it's not necessarily your father's party on either side anymore. we'll look at a lot of those issues and digging into what happened yesterday with the federal reserve. a couple of guest hosts this morning, jillian ted of the financial times, peter boockvar will joins. we can dig through what happened
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with the fed, the market reaction on this. the rally was rather muted. if that's all you get out of the idea that you're not raising rates, you might raise them later in december, but rates will be lower for a lot longer than anybody expected. look at the futures today. gain of about 60 points or so that's nothing compared to what we've been looking at all week. you wonder how much of this is baked into the market. how much more good news could come of it. we'll discuss that with a lot of players like jim paulson. and you guys were just talking about jim cramer and the lulu lemon interview tonight. willfred, i know you're looking for yoga pants? >> i'm dying to see it. >> last night he had an interview with brent saunders of allergan, so we'll talk about what they're doing and play some of that cramer interview, too.
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>> if jim wears yoga pants tonight, i'll wear them another day. >> then i hope he does not. >> when we come back, michelle girard will talk all things fed. back in a couple minutes.
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now that fedex has helped us simplify our e-commerce, we could focus on bigger issues, like our passive aggressive environment. we're not passive aggressive. hey, hey, hey, there are no bad suggestions here... no matter how lame they are. well said, ann. i've always admired how you just say what's in your head,
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without thinking. very brave. good point ted. you're living proof that looks aren't everything. thank you. welcome. so, fedex helped simplify our e-commerce business and this is not a passive aggressive environment. i just wanted to say, you guys are doing a great job. what that supposed to mean? fedex. helping small business simplify e-commerce. our top global story is making sense of the fed. what did we learn as far as the fed's path from here? >> we learned they still think they're likely to move. that inclination to act came through in the statement and in the press conference. but we saw from their dots that we all look at, they still expect to move slowly and they think ultimately rates don't have to go as high as they used to. so, you know, this is, i think,
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the bigger story quite honestly. not so much will they or won't they in december. if the fed is only moving once or twice a week, that almost doesn't matter. what is more important for the market, are we embarking on a big tightening campaign? will we see more aggressive action? absolutely not. >> does the softness that we saw in the dollar yesterday, even though it was kind of confirmed that we might see a hike this year, show that the dollar is much more reactive to the longer term path of rates? >> that's it exactly. that's the right story. it's really more about the path and the peak rather than this idea about moving in december, will they or won't they. as long as they continue to suggest that they really don't expect that they're going to have to act aggressively, the markets don't have to reprice. i think exactly as you said, the dollar shows you that the market is appropriately much more focused on the longer run path than what will happen in three months time. >> let's talk about the data. it starts to pick up this
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morning. initial jobless claims, home sales, will it come back from the softness we've seen over the last few months that would allow them to get to their rate hike? >> that's the question. we've seen this from the fed before. we're going to, we're going to. we can't. >> the data is not letting us. >> the data will matter. we think it will hold in. though i don't think it will show upward momentum. the other big thing is the elections, how markets react to the outcome of the elections. there's a lot of big events, besides the data, even domestically and globally, a lot of things could happen which makes knowing for sure what will happen in december, presumably that's when they move, a difficult decision. >> we questioned whether the bank of japan has any tools left to react efficiently. this recent inaction from the fed suggests that's true here as well? >> it does. we've seen this from the fed chair on down suggesting that one of the reasons they need to be cautious is because they
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don't have as much room if they need to reverse course. of course they stress we've always got things we can do. there's an acknowledgment that rates at these low levels, it's much better for us to move more cautiously and to move too slow to err on that side than too quickly. >> if you look at the gains for the week so far in the equity market, utilities, industrials and financials are in the lead. the defensive, higher yield paying utilities on top and financials and industrials making a move higher. which is it? >> to some extent you've seen the expectation because the economy is not as robust you will see rates staying lower for long which hurts the financials, but on the other hand you see action out of the bank of japan that supporting the yield curve which helps. >> michelle, thank you very much for joining us. >> thank you. the results of our twitter/facebook question, when will we see a hike?
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14% november, 42%, december. 14%, none at all.
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a new poll finding hillary clinton leading donald trump, but the race continues to get tighter. "squawk box" starts right now. live from new york, where
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business never sleeps, this is "squawk box." >> good morning. welcome to "squawk box" on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with andrew ross sorkin. joe is out today. joining us is gillian tet, and peter boockvar. great to see you. >> hi. >> we'll get to them in a moment. futures are higher. the dow up by 163 points after the fed decided not to raise rates. that's a gain of less than 1%. you wonder how much more potential upside is really in this entire market at this point. again, you see the futures, up by about 54 points. we have been up every morning as we come in. s&p 500 up by six. nasdaq up by 16. doesn't always translate into gains. we'll see as we get closer to the opening bell.


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