tv Fast Money CNBC September 23, 2016 5:00pm-5:31pm EDT
meals any more, with all of the different components. there is something nice about it all coming together. like a lunch box back in school. >> you like it just in the little box? >> having a cookie with lunch. that's what i'm saying. mike and susan, thank you both for joining us here on "closing bell." that does it for us. have a great weekend, everybody. "fast money" begins now. >> "fast money" for our friday starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site over new york city's times square. i'm mel lee. tonight on "fast," twitter having its best day since it went public after we broke the news the social giant is in play. will a bidding war ensue? we'll it tell you how to profit. and three days away from the all-important first presidential debate. so what might come for clinton that could spook the markets. and later one of our traders says there is one dow component setting up for next week. we start off with the story of the day. apple shares falling nearly 2% on a report from research firm
gfk that raised concerns about sales of the latest iphone 7. and it wasn't just apple. check out the suppliers also tanking in the late afternoon trade. how concerned should we be about this report? do you buy the stock here? brian kelly, what do you say? >> i don't buy the stock here. and but yes, i would be concerned. so last week, when apple was up 12%, we on this show talked about, you know, what's going on with this? is this a real sign? we said you couldn't extrapolate, because these were t-mobile and sprint, most likely discounted sales, so it wasn't something you could say the whole ecosystem was expanding. now you have a lot of buyers in there that probably don't have a lot of profits, a very itchy trigger finger. i think you wait. you have to see if it holds 110 and it takes time to play out. >> it's interesting, because it's really about where we are on the stock and where we are on the chart. also, it's amazing how quickly we're able to upgraduate the second half of the year forecast on apple when we hadn't
validated claims. if you think about snap morgue had a good report out two days ago saying their supply team actually said they're increasing the build up to about 75 million units from 70. but that this still well below where they were in 2015 around $87 million. do you want to own apple long term. it's a very undervalue company in the medium term. you don't have to own it. >> let's make a quick note about gfk. bob pisani reached out. this is a report released to subscribers. there were weak sales of the iphone 7 according to their checks. we still brought that to you because the stock did move on this. does that show you the skepticism that investors have about the apple story still? >> yeah. i agree with tim. long-term, you could make a case on the stock to be a bull. i do believe there are too many iphone 6s and 6ss out there. i have a six. i'm not going to upgrade. that's the problem. two-thirds of the sales, 60 -- there's one -- there's one guy
that's going to -- not enough of foes out there to save apple right now. i think technically you wait for 105, 110 again. and i think you just sit on your hands. i don't think it's going to be an outperformer. >> doesn't the size of that phone speak to the confidence, tim seymour? >> it is a tiny phone. >> 6plus. tim has tremendous hands. >> it's like a tiny,itty bitty phone. >> it's a conversation we don't want to finish, fellas. >> fair point. so apple from the middle of 2015, we had this very well-defined down trend we finally broeb broke out of a few months ago. steve said good opportunity for this stock trade between 115 and 118. it's effective where we got. we also failed at levels we last saw six or seven months ago. so what happens from here? in my opinion, it goes back and retests the breakout of that trend line that you saw. probably comes in around 105 or so. if you're not inclined to trade the stock, that's fine. if you haven't been in the stock, i do think you can get an
opportunity to buy it, that 105 level. >> now we've got to wait. what's the next catalyst out there? maybe they make some kind of acquisition. we talked about maybe they do a car acquisition or something like that. but it's still an iphone. >> i would think that would be bad. terrible. >> almost to the up side, though. >> talking about possibly being -- it's a catalyst, number one. but doing something like mclaren. if they went out and bought a major car company, i think that would be terrible. that's what people are talking about. >> if they bought patents, it's a better story. >> but you're still waiting. it's still an iphone company. that's the problem. now you wait for the ocho to come out which i guess will be next year. >> ocho. what's interesting also is some of this came at the expense of samsung, right? so if you were thinking this is a zero sum game of people that can buy a phone kind of like this with an asp above 650, part of the argument was samsung's demise was apple's gain. look at samsung stock. it was down about 2.5% today,
basically taken back the entire market cap loss. i think that's probably appropriate, especially considering how diversified samsung's business is. back to apple. one of the catalysts, they indicated there is not going to be a car deal any time soon. and i think if people are trying to trade this stock in the short run, i think it's trading in the same range it's been trading in. there is nothing about the fourth quarter and the holiday season we think is going to outperform. in fact, we've already seen that. but i think this is a stock people feel very comfortable owning, and in a market where people are very worried about valuations. >> don't you think there are a stronghold in phones, it's closer to declining than increasing at this point. they're still dependent on iphones. >> to the down side. >> the risk is to the down side. it's always been cheap, a value investment. i just wonder if it's a trap like it's been so many times in the past. >> i guess if we look at where their international installed base can go to, and this is the story. dan has made some good points on the show india is not going to happen overnight and everyone thinks india is going to be
china. there are plenty of markets. i think the eco system is still something that keeps people coming back for more. >> are we allowed to go downstream? >> i would love to go downstream. >> in a boat, like together? >> row, row, row. >> with paddles? >> yeah. >> being very romantic. they made movies -- okay, sorry. so sirius down 5% today. basically ballistic since. i want to say this spring it's gone from 35 up to 55, pulled off today. how do you trade the stock? well, it's not expensive. you would think it is. 13 times forward earnings report at the end of october. a chance you see the 2012 high come back around 46 bucks. if it gets there, i think you buy with both hands. >> if we see continued pressure on apple as well as the downstream, that really hemmed the markets to the up side. will that put a lid on the markets at this point? what do you think? >> i don't think so. and i guess i was of the belief that apple last week or ten days ago was not really the savior for markets. i think we were actually seeing
it is he same time. cyclical names. apple is the same thing. ultimately, the stock had a ferocious run for apple. 90 to 115, and that's -- i think a stock that probably took a lot of market cap with it. no, i don't see the market -- >> bob pisani saying it's actually attributed to a large part of that move in the overall market. was because of apple. and therefore, you have to take a chunk out of it, if the market comes back -- if apple comes back in, i think on the edges, the whole market does -- >> i don't know. i mean, listen, apple has had a history the last couple years of trading against the market. we have done plenty of shows, apple is the only safe haven out there. with a stock that's going to pay that dividend with that cash, i mean, on a very short-term day-to-day basis, did it hit the market today, maybe one day last week, did it have some kind of impact? possibly. but over weeks or months, i don't think apple has that big of an effect on this market right now. >> in an environment where valuations are being questioned where it is widely believed that volatility will increase in the
elections and maybe to year-end until we get the fed to raise rates, is apple the place you want to be? >> wow. as opposed to every other stock in the -- is apple -- >> not saying apple or nothing. but, i mean, is apple a place that is relatively safe? >> i think -- well, okay. i'll play the game. i think your down side is probably 6 or $7 from percentage terms. 4%. if you can deal with 4, 4.5%, that's fine. to get to the broader market issue, i hear you. i think there was talks of a rounding top by jeffrey gunld lack the other day. 2134 is a level we flagged. why, because it's the high from may 2015. that's where we broke out from. i think that's still critical support. i think a lot of people on this desk feel the same way. yes, we broached it a couple weeks so ago. we never stayed below that long. that to me is a critical level that needs to hold. >> the other big tech story of the day. twitter surging to 20% on news that david faber broke that is moving closer to being sold. our traders name names of who they think will actually do the
buying. and the first presidentialdant just days away. we'll tell you which industry groups and stocks could be july vulnerable. and reports opec will not reach a deal next week. why one technician says there is more pain ahead for the energy trade. stay tuned. woman owns this hou, with new cabinets from this shop, with handles designed here, made here, shipped from here, on this plane flown by this pilot, who owns stock in this company, that builds big things and provides benefits to this woman, with new cabinets. they all have insurance crafted personally for them. not just coverage, craftsmanship. not just insured. chubb insured.
welcome back to "fast money." twitter soaring more than 20%, having its best day since it's ipo, the company moving closer to a sale. aditi roy is in san francisco with the details. >> reporter: hi, melissa. that's right. as david faber has been reporting throughout the day, twitter has received expressions of interest from a number of tech companies that are mulling over whether or not to make a bid for the social media companies. sources also tell faber twitter's board of directors, which just met earlier this month is largely desirous of a deal. so no sale is imminent, but twitter may receive a formal bid soon. potential suitors include sales force and google. sales force has declined to comment and twitter did not respond to cnbc's quest for comment. since twitter went public, the company has struggled with
growing its active user numbers and has faced tough competition from competitors like facebook and snapchat. twitter's recurrent some analysts say twitter could be attractive for its user base and real-time data. however, just yesterday rbc downgraded twitter to underperform and cut its price target to $14 from $17, saying twitter's value proposition to advertisers could be waning. rbc did say that twitter is still a unique asset with a strong value proposition to core users. melissa, back to you. >> aditi roy in san francisco, thank you. now we thought this would be the perfect time to play one of our favorite games. "the dating game!" for twitter. so our four traders are standing by all cozied up in the chairs ready to reveal who they think should buy twitter. let's introduce them first. bachelor number one, tim seymour, short sellers call him a jerk. when he's not trading, he's at a
bar downtown, so girls, drinks are on him. bachelor number two, brian kelly. contain yourself, ladies, he's flush with cash. referred to in the third person. if lucky, been known to take off his bear suit at the end of the night. >> whoa! >> bachelor number three, ladies call him the floor general, but has been kind of dead for years, so draw your own conclusions. and last but not least, bachelor number four, the italian stallion known to prowl the streets of times square. there is nothing this guy won't try, at least once. so these are your bachelors. we started off with you. who is twitter's perfect match? >> well, i think mel, ultimately if we're talking about twitter as a media company where their future is, i think what's the biggest need? i would go with a viacom. >> interesting. >> i think this is a case where you've got two partners that kind of need each other. maybe you need to listen up the audience. even though i think google is the obvious play. >> brian kelly. >> i'm usually not that obvious. but i will say the google on
this particular case. the reason why, it just makes the most sense. so they can have real-time search with google. they can can actually take advantage of what fwootgoogle i doing -- twitter is doing with the nfl. integrating with youtube. plus they have the cash to do is. so i think that's the best bet. >> we go to the floor general now. >> i do believe that google is the obvious choice. everyone points towards google. no one points towards apple. and apple should have their eyes on twitter. because they could integrate what bk just said, the nfl, with their apple tv. i think it's a huge opportunity, and it flies under radar. apple. >> italian stallion. >> i like long walks on the beach -- so -- >> yes. >> football game last night. jim cramer has a show on at 6:00. he's watch -- how is he watching the show? >> twitter. >> on twitter. so it dawned on me. espn is floundering, walt disney owns espn. it ain't gonna happen but it's not preposterous to think that the walt disney company -- >> long walk on the beach, huh?
>> i do like long walks on the beach. >> would have interest. and just think about it. how they could integrate their entire sports package and other packages, as well. >> right. >> distribute. >> interesting. now, brian kelly is the only person who actually mentioned a company that was reported out by -- being one of the potential buyers. >> did i win? >> no, that doesn't mean you win. i ask you, could there be antitrust concerns, could google be getting too big here if it does acquire twitter? >> there could be. that was the big knock today. that there could be on that. i don't know, though. i mean, i just feel like they're already doing search. it's just adding on to what they're already doing. so i would be skeptical of the antitrust. >> you look like -- >> this bachelor thing said ultimately if twitter is that big of a concern on an anti-trust front how is the stock floundering. i don't see that this marriage is one that actually can take the stock down or actually could be a cause for not letting that deal come together. >> here's a question for you
guys. show of hands. show of hands, bachelors. who believes that crm sales force could be a buyer for -- >> could be? >> could be? makes sense. no, that it could make sense. >> nah. i don't think it makes any sense. >> you say yes? >> i think sales force is at a point where they could use their stock as currency and could do just about anything they want. >> but would that something be stupid if they bought twitter? >> stupid, that's a strong word. dispatcher doesn't like to use. because -- >> ill advised? >> ill advised. maybe we should pose a twitter question to the audience and -- >> there you go. >> put a little -- >> put it on twitter. >> put it on twitter. >> tweet that out. >> what bachelor makes the own sense. >> only thing i would say about crm, it wouldn't surprise me if they were doing this as a strategic type of play, trying to force one of their competitors into spending money on an asset. >> like a microsoft? >> like a microsoft, exactly. >> i think a bigger problem that twitter face social security that if none of these players or none of the players that are
likely to buy, then what's going to happen, you're going to see this 20% pop in the stock. >> yeah. >> disintegrate extremely fast. >> why is that, steve? ultimately, they continue to monetize, all be it very slowly. obviously their revenue growth isn't there. but the company has proven it's gottin twinsic value and at least there is a core business model that many people endorse. >> i agree. i'm still long. but unfortunately, you could have a good product and a poor stock. >> you're not selling this pop? >> no. i have held it for this. this has been the one catalyst that people say never hold a stock for. i'm an idiot, i've held it, i'm staying long. >> by the way, that is on twitter. so you can check it out. >> genius. >> would be nice to win the bachelor thing just for that. and great reporting by david faber. could we give him a collective shout? nice job. next, why it not feel quite like fall just yet, no need to worry. we're giving you four stock picks you can fall into before the leaves start to change colors. i'm melissa lee, you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. here's what else is coming up on
"fast." these two are gearing up for their first debate. and here's what it could do to the market. we'll tell you the one group of stocks that could be hardest hit. plus -- that's basically what happened to oil today. on reports opec won't reach a deal next week. and we'll tell you what has one top technician saying this is just the beginning of the breakdown. all that and more ahead this hour. ♪ (ee-e-e-oh-mum-oh-weh) (hush my darling...) (don't fear my darling...) (the lion sleeps tonight.) (hush my darling...) man snoring (don't fear my darling...) (the lion sleeps tonight.) woman snoring take the roar out of snore. yet another innovation only at a sleep number store. doenough for retirement?aved are you or your spouse 62 or older?
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so don't give me that crap. in the last year, the market has -- >> you bought gold. >> two years. >> you bought gold at the bottom too, i bet. right? >> don't be such a jerk. >> i'm just asking a question. >> a portion of the heated debate we had last night on the show between our own tim seymour and noted short-seller bill fleckenstein. it got a little heated. >> i agree with a lot of bill's thoughts on the fed. i think there are some major problems out there, and two, bill has been very consistent on this show. and he is the kind of a guest that people tune in to watch on our show and we need to let them talk. so to that extent, i was probably much more aggressive than i should have been or needed to be. nobody wins in that environment. ultimately, my frustration right now with markets, there's a lot of people -- and i'm not saying this was bill -- are coming in and talking about the fed as if it was the first, you know -- the first moment. markets have been doing this for
the last two years. we've heard about china blowing up. we heard about the dollar going to 150. we heard about a number of things that i think ultimately are -- haven't happened. and so markets are giving us what they are giving us, the fed is giving us what it's giving us and i think that's important. we love having bill on the show. and bottom line is, that was probably not my best interview. >> we hope that bill will come back soon. now let's get to the first presidential debate which gets under way this monday. will the trump versus clinton showdown spook the markets? which groups of stocks could be hardest hit on trump and clinton's comments. grasso. >> i think the obvious ones are ibb, probably will be brought up. will be hit. i think financials for both parties, by the way, will be hit. and i think if you look at what probably should be running on trump, he'll be pro energy. traditional energy. and hillary will bealitives. so maybe you see solar pop on this. it's been under pressure. >> yeah. definitely. >> maybe you get a day trade -- i don't think this is going to have the longevity trade.
but this is some areas i'm looking at. >> wells fargo isn't going out of business, but if i'm in this debate, when i have the first opportunity to go after him, i would absolutely go after him. so if you don't hear wells fargo in the first ten minutes, something is going wrong. does that knock down the stock? it does. they're not going away, but there is still pressure in that name and that's one name that could find itself lower on tuesday. >> yeah, i would agree with all of those, particularly with the wells fargo. it's going to be like the biotech situation saul over again. for me, i'm looking at the bigger picture and bond market like tlt. the reason why is on both sides, the economic plans require some more debt here and nobody is really addressing that. and that could spook the bond market. may not, but i'm going to be certainly watching that and then obviously you watch the currencies on the side of that. >> bottom line is, both candidates are going to talk about fiscal policy. i do think you have a chance for materials. ashland, some of the names i think are big plays in there. i also think that vix is -- or volatility ultimately is what this is coming down to. i think as we get closer to the
elections, we're building up the -- englii think the stress s of markets to endure what could be a close election. and mike hartnett at merrill lynch came out and said what happens if you get a delegate stalemate and you have a place where you've got both parties after -- on the morning after and we've got some kind of a tug of war over who actually won. so i mean, there's a lot of scenarios here that are very concerning i think for markets. bottom line, i think the trades that still make sense are fiscal trades. >> we mentioned sectors, we mentioned stocks. how about the markets overall in terms of if trump is perceived as the winner or hillary is perceived as the winner. then what? >> i'll tell you, trump -- i think if he acquits himself well, this is my opinion, people that agree with this. i think there is a chance you could see futures sell off. not in a brexit way, but in a similar fashion. i think the better he does, the more the market potentially sells off. you could see a selloff of people feel he's doing well.
>> be sure to watch cnbc's special coverage of the debate, monday night 9:00 p.m. eastern time. here on cnbc. all right. it is friday. in case you missed it, fall is here. today is the first day of fall. and the days are going to be getting shorter. so in lieu of the final trades, we're doing stocks. you can fall into -- these are stocks that will rake in the cash. tim. >> well, a little controversial. royal caribbean. a favorite stock before zika. the company being very aggressive in terms of their growth plans. i think this is a stock that's down on its multiple, obviously. and i think you buy this weakness. >> brian kelly. >> well, for me, it's going to be in the material area. particularly because of what tim talked about, you're looking at potentially fiscal stimulus. but look at freeport-mcmoran, beaten up. grasso caught a great run on. this i think at 10 bucks, using 10 as your stop, looks interesting on a risk/reward basis. >> steve. >> electronic arts. battlefield won in october. it's right in the middle of take two, and active vision.
up 22%. year-to-date, i think you still have room to run here. >> ghee. >> going to chipotle mexican grill. can you believe i just said that? i did. look at the way the stock traded to do. >> options action is right after this break. we're drowning in information. where, in all of this, is the stuff that matters? the stakes are so high, your finances, your future. how do you solve this? you don't. you partner with a firm that advises governments and the fortune 500, and, can deliver insight person to person, on what matters to you. morgan stanley. [ yes. yes. ] uhhh, you're really getting the hang of this. anncr: want feedback that helps? verified reviews.
hey there, live at the nasdaq market site on this sunny fall friday. the guys behind me. here's what is coming up on the show. >> let's make a deal! >> the world's biggest oil producers meet next week on whether or not to cut oil production. and the news can send energy stocks tumbling. we'll explain. plus, how would you like to get long facebook for free? >> are you out of your vulcan mind? >> maybe just a little. but it is possible. and we'll tell you how to do it. and -- >> money's got to be the shoes! >> shoes! >> shoes. >> you sure it's