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tv   Squawk Box  CNBC  October 5, 2016 6:00am-9:01am EDT

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♪ live from new york where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box." good morning. welcome to "squawk box" on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen. andrew is at the cambridge cybersecurity summit today. he'll join us at the bottom of the hour. >> two out of three ain't bad. >> took me a while. >> i didn't pick up on that. andrew will be joining us. all three of us in a half hour. u.s. equity futures at this hour are indicating a flat open. if we were to open right here. you can see that the dow futures are down slightly. s&p is really flat. it's up by 0.01 points.
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yesterday stocks were down for the third time in four sessions. not far off the session lows. that was just a decline of 85 points for the dow. a loss of ten points for the s&p 500 and a loss of 11 points for the nasdaq. check out what happened overnight in asia. the nikkei was up by a half percent. mainland china markets closed for that week-long celebration that they do. in europe, in the early trade, at this point they're under a bit of pressure. biggest decline coming in france with the cac down by 0.8%. ftse off by a half percent. the ftse has been the big story. ftse up yesterday. the british pound falling to the lowest several since 1985. we'll talk more about that in a moment. look at crude oil prices. cried down yesterday in the regular session. it did pick up some ground in the evening session after we saw a surprise draw down in api
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inventories. $50, right within spitting distance. 49.44 for wti. >> among the top stories, becky is still here. >> yes. i'm still here. >> it's interesting about how that is uniquely -- unique to a woman. this, the whole thing, knowing what's coming, waiting, just -- i can't -- i can't imagine. i used to be afraid of shots. i'm not big on, you know, what 50-year-old men need to do every five years. don't like looking forward to that, that day either. >> this is different. >> this -- you have done it before. you're good at it. you've done it before. >> it will happen the. >> wasn't so great at it last time. >> took 50 hours last team. >> i'm nervous, too. >> because of your shoes. >> just -- you know, when it happens, people panic. it's important we do this right. >> you'll be the voice of calm and reason, i'm sure. >> all right.
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>> judd, if you done this? he's nervous. greg is nervous. i see the look on his face. i think it's one of the big three stories. a packed economic agenda adp employment report at 8:15 eastern. the forecasts call for a rise of 173,000 in private payrolls. may not equate exactly to what comes on friday. that's slightly lower than in august. at 8:30, august trade deficit. at 10:00, we get the ism services for september. factory orders, kneel kashkari, jeffrey laker, and charles evans all speaking today. that's great. in earnings news -- >> evans already speaking. he said he would not be opposed -- i'm jumped ahead. >> someone wrote he is not a voting member.
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>> but he has been a huge dove. >> larry summers, did you read his stuff? >> i know. ready for them -- >> he is sort of criticizing the fed a bit. >> gently. >> you got to, i guess. in earnings news which which is coming it happens every quarter it doesn't happen immediately like october 1st. >> takes a while to put the books together. >> that's what i meant earlier. i said cook the books, i misspook. >> freudian slip. >> exactly. >> monsanto and constellation brands report a result before the open today. yum brands is out after the close. as i said, fed speak continues to dominate the global market conversation. just talking about chicago fed president charles evans, telling journalists in new zealand today that he's fine with raising interest rates by year end. but here's -- it's all been the
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rub. depends on whether u.s. economic data continues to come in firm. the fed doesn't know better than us. >> that sounds like a lower bar than he's had. >> do you have confidence that economic data will come in firm? >> no. >> i don't either. so we're back to we might. but it depends. something always seems to happen. seems to get in the way. >> not this month, maybe next month. >> it's october, right? >> evans didn't shoot down the idea that november could be a live meeting. i'm incredibly dubious of if they're going to do it, probably december. >> friday's number will be important. he adds further moves, we would need to see inflation accelerating. evans suggestsing isuggesting a most likely come in december. we're at 50% or something? is it that high? >> it was. i haven't looked at it in a week. >> he's not taking november off
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the table completely. he becomes a voter next year. just in time for when they actually might. we're watching currencies. the british pound falling to a three decade low against the dollar on brexit concerns, hitting the lowest level since the uk miners strike in 1985, which is when billy elliott was happening. did you see billy elliott? >> no. >> the back drop of the whole thing. >> the miners and the strike? >> yeah. the backdrop. in this country we won't have more miners strikes s fshgstrik is elected. we won't have anymore mines. >> west virginia. >> things do move, it's not good. but it's hard for the people going through it at the time. >> we should talk more about the
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top corporate stories. the one at the top of our list is twitter. the "wall street journal" reports that the social need where company is expected to field offers this week. the paper says salesforce ceo marc benioff has been building a case to investors for why his company should be the buyer. among other names looking, google and disney. they have much deeper pockets. marc benioff seems to be interested in this after losing linkedin to microsoft earlier this year. shares of twitter up another 4%. our top political story is the faceoff between vice presidential candidates last night at the debate. john harwood was watching it. they didn't have the fireworks that we had seen with some of the presidential debate that we had already watched, but both candidates got a chance to lay out their side of the story. >> they did. becky, before i get to that i have to agree with the one wise
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thing that joe said at the top of the show -- >> what's that? >> the experience of being pregnant pregnant, about to have a baby and having a baby is unique to a woman. there's no debating that issue. >> i want you to think about it, harwood. you need to think if it was you. okay? that -- you know, men we face certain things where we get nervous and stuff. but nothing compares. >> i know what i heard on the radio on the way in, tom petty, waiting is the hardest part. i can completely relate to that. >> you never felt something alien, you're sitting there, you see the guy -- >> you never had a co-anchor repeatedly show you videos of alien popping out of the stomach. >> that is true. >> you never felt something alive inside of you, have you in. >> other than a burritos. >> exactly.
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burritos sometimes alive inside me. >> all right. >> go ahead. >> let's get to that debate. first of all, bottom line, mike pence gave the republican ticket and donald trump ahead what they most needed, which was a solid performance, calm the jitters of the fallout from the debate donald trump himself had and the subsequent comments he made. mike pence was solid in defend ing conservative principles, if not donald trump's principles. both candidates had consistent strategies they executed. mike pence looked a bit better executing his than tim kaine did. kaine consistently went after donald trump and threw in the face of mike pence statements that trump made that alienated some voters. here's an example. >> senator, he's going to
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release his tax returns when the audit is over. >> richard nixon released tax returns when he was under audit. if you can't meet nixon's standard, people ought to have -- >> people can't understand either one of you when you speak over each other. i would ask you to wait until it is that the other is finished. >> we're having fun up here. >> now, mike pence's strategy was to redirect questions into criticism of the obama/clinton administration, as he called it, since she was his secretary of state. he took an interesting apreproa to the criticisms of donald trump that tim kaine threw his way, saying there is no way donald trump could say some of the things he said he said. donald trump did say some of those things, but if you were a viewer, you would say he's a guy
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deflecting some of the things being thrown at him. >> he says ours is an insult driven campaign? did y'all hear that? ours is an insult driven campaign? if donald trump said all the things you said he said and the way you said he said them, he still wouldn't have a fraction of the insults that hillary clinton leveled when she said that half of our supporters were a basket of deplorables. she said they were irredeemable. they were not america. >> of course this is not going to fundmentally change the race. nonetheless, a solid night, good news night, sheadlines saying mike pence won is what the ticket needed. but you don't know what trump's own reaction will be. i communicated with a top trump
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campaign aide said pence won overall but lost to trump, he doesn't like to be upstaged. whether the positive reviews for mike pence will annoy donald trump, whether mike pence's refusal to go point by point and rebut charges at the top of the ticket will annoy him, we'll have to see. in the end, it's in the hands of donald trump and hillary clinton in st. louis. >> that sounds like a stretch. that's someone looking at donald trump's personality, with a microscope and going, let's see. he's thin skinned and defensive. what if this vice president exceeds him. i'm telling you, have you heard the first pick a guy makes when he becomes the nominee, the most important thing they remember him for is his vice presidential pick. i liked dan quayle, i think a lot of people at the time said that was not great for h.w. sarah palin, some people thought that was a hail mary before you
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needed a hail mary. in hindsight there's no dispute, i don't think, that you can say that -- out of the people he had in consideration, that trump had in consideration, pence was a great pick. even the never trumpers have to say that almost, right, judd? >> i think it was a good -- i said it was a good pick at the time. i still think it is a good pick for donald trump. >> for people who think they can see into trump's soul and think he's a complete psycho, then that would be, hey, i'm mad. my campaign might do better but i'm mad because this guy has -- that looked better than me. i don't believe that will happen. >> joe, look, as i told you, i think the bottom line was that this was a good night for mike pence, that it helped the republican ticket. i'm telling you what somebody who works for trump's campaign told me. >> when you're on, john, i want you to succeed as a news person
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when i toss to you. i'm not hoping you screw up, lose your train of thought or look bad. i don't care if you do better than me. >> but how do you feel if andrew upstages you? >> would get to me. no. we got to go. if that ever happens, i'll see how i feel. for more on the debate and the next presidential debate coming up on sunday, let's bring in judd gregg, and kaine, too, a senator governor. and former congresswoman elizabeth holtzman. good to see you. >> very nice to see you. >> you watched? >> i did. >> did you have some coffee this morning? >> no, no, no. i want to go back to sleep. >> i was up last week until 11:00 watching that one. it set me back. you need to do damage control or did he did okay?
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>> i think he did what he needed to do. >> tim kaine. >> yeah. basically show -- introduce himself to the american people. he's not well known. mike pence is not well known. people saw that he's a knowledgeable guy, has experience and raised issues in a strong way about donald trump. >> judd, you had the early call on the gray hair, meaning wisdom, maturity. you went long ago that route, right? >> yes. gray hair. >> do you see it the same way as the congresswoman? >> i think they both did a good job. as a practical matter, i thought senator kaine had too much caffeine before he got on the show, probably got hyped up on his one-liners. pence came across much more basically thoughtful and substantive. as a practical matter, these vice presidential debates, unless there's a major messup, even then -- certainly the
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quayle one was a significant one and that didn't affect the outcome -- people can look at both candidates, okay f somebody happens with the president i can be hopeful with this candidate. as a practical matter, this election is morphing into an issue of what happens to the united states senate. let's say the present poll numbers are correct, and that hillary does win running a quasi socialist campaign as she seems to be doing, the only thing that will balance our government is keeping a senate republican. the senate race is down to three basic races, new hampshire, pennsylvania and north carolina. it's important if you happen to be a conservative or believe in government that is of moderation versus excessively large government and government that moves left aggressively and a supreme court that is out of control that we maintain the senate.
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that's what this election will be about. >> three, four, five months ago, the polls, whatever you use, they have gone from hillary to trump catching, almost being ahead, back to widening after her convention, back to close -- all the time, the trumpers have been saying we have to worry about the senate. you wrote it off a couple times you tied and were even. why be so defeatist the entire time? you won't have to worry about the supreme court. >> you're right about that, but you have to be realistic. >> again, you know more about the enthusiasm gap. you saw what happened with brexit. that was 52/48 stay, and it was closer. i would think you would be more half full than after empty and
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be more optimistic. is mrs. gregg as defeatist? >> you two have to talk, because he thinks you moved too far left. >> i think hillary has an excellent chance of winning now, it's not over, but people have begun to see donald trump's real temperament and persona in a way they had not -- the debate was to focus the attention of the american people. >> how much does sunday's debate weigh in? >> i think not as much. people have already made up their minds. to say hillary clinton is a socialist -- >> quasi. >> not even quasi. >> she's to the left of sanders. >> i don't want to break in like kaine did last night. >> it's an insult to socialists,
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i agree. >> the most telling thing is how, in his own state, new hampshire, the republican candidate for senate, the sitting senator -- >> senator ayot. >> that was smooth. >> said that trump was a model for his kids and then walked it back. why did she walk it back? >> because of her own election. >> because the people in her state don't see donald trump as a model for children orb adults. that's true around the country. >> not her finest moment. >> i think it's -- facing reality is important. >> let me defend kelly ayot, he's been one of the best senators in the senate. they represents new hampshire very effectively, because she speaks as an independent, speaks her own mind and understands complex issues. she is a very strong senator.
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>> was bill clinton a good role model? he was president for eight years? >> i think when he ran -- >> before we knew about him. >> well there were some issues that arose during his campaign. >> but would you say -- you're not running for any office, was he a good role model for our children? >> in the end with monica lewinsky, he showed lack of control. >> that's just one name. >> is there any hypocrisy -- >> we're not talking about -- you're mixing apples and oranges here. it's one thing to talk about infidelity. it's another thing to have a temperament where you lose control -- >> it's not just infidelity -- i was in government for 20 years, congress, was in new york city, i was there when the first bombs went off in the world trade center and the mayor was out of
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town. you need calmness, measured response. reasonable. that's not what we saw with donald trump. i know what you need in a crisis and what you need as a president. i think the american people saw that. >> i was talking role models. >> there's only one person i know right now in this room who understands the presidency. that's becky. she has two young kids, she has a third one coming soon. and she deals with you guys all the time. she could be president. >> i mean -- >> thank you. appreciate it. but no thank you. >> you'd be great. >> thank you. thank you both for coming in. we'll talk more about the debate and things that are happening on wall street. when we come back, jobs are in focus. we are just two days away from the september employment report. it could have a big impact on the fed's plan to hike interest rates. much more on this after the break. and we'll talk jobs and the fed with former treasury secretary larry summers. he'll join us on the "squak"
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the countdown is on to the friday jobs report. today we'll get an early read on what we might be able to expect on friday. that's when we get the adp private payrolls at 8:15 a.m. eastern.
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joining us is chief economist from mizuho securities. steven, let's talk about these jobs numbers. it is important because there is this idea that potentially november is still alive meeting. i don't believe that. december probably still on the table in a big way. >> every meeting is live. they made that clear. november is a live meeting. are they likely to move? probably no. is december a possibility? these people have been talking about it for 36 months and done one rate hike. there's a credibility issue here. and as the old president rolls off, new president rolls on, if they don't do it now, they probably won't do it in 2017. there's a high probability that december will be the last move
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for 12 months. >> why is that? are we falling off a cliff? >> we're not falling off a cliff, but the my is stuck. we've downshifted this year from 2% to 2.5% to 1.25. if we notice the articles coming out, there's a glut of apartments or condos in a lot of major metropolitan cities. >> some fed officials pointed out recently, look, we're writing off a lot of things, like the dollar strength, the oil. >> we didn't ease when the dollar rose to 20%. we didn't ease when oil collapsed 50%. now we will raise rates because the dollar stabilized and oil
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stabilized at a low 4rw level. >> does the 2% target for inflation make sense? >> we should have a higher number. 2% is ineffective in japan, the wrong level in europe and it will be the wrong level here. i wish the fed would let the economy get to that point. we need to make sure we don't get deflation in this country. >> you think their policies are harming the economy? >> i think their policy is misguided. they're smart people who have an old view of the economy. they're living in the past that we have a world of excess demand. we have a world of excess supply. that's why larry summers is talking about the things he's talking about, krugman is talking about the things he's talking about. i think it's nothing more than special cases of excess supply. that's a bigger, more dynamic problem and requires a different approach in fiscal policy and
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monetary policy. >> if there's an excess glut of supply, how do you fick that? >> there's several things you have to do to get around it. you need tax adjustments that keep the budget deficit and create new incentives to hire individuals. >> for companies to start spending again. >> even if not spending but hiring individuals as opposed to putting machines this their place. >> like turning back the hands of time. >> to some extent we need to. if we change capital gains tax laws, we could get a big effect. anything less than five years becomes ordinary income. anything after five years becomes tax free. >> so get rid of capital gains entirely if you hold on to it for five years? >> exactly. then you will have a shift to a longer term investment process. the big problem is the short three-month earnings target that prohibits anybody from doing anything in a realistic time frame. >> if we raise the capital gains
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rate and then just spend a lot of money on infrastructure building, won't that work? that's demand. >> the problem with the infrastructure building you don't get a lot of the shovel ready projects you thought unless you change the rules. the dep comes in and says you need a knew environmenew enviro. >> that was a softball, and i put it over the plate for you and you said what i hope you say. >> there you go. >> so obama's shovel ready project didn't work? >> no, there's a good likelihood if we have hillary clinton in place -- >> capital gains going up to 47%. >> her need to move to the left will do the same thing that happened under obama. when you're looking at this situation, you know, we do have to consider that we need a new
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approach to this process. unfortunately no one has come up with that yet. there's things to do out there, but they're politically tough and you need somebody who doesn't want to be re-elected in order to get them done . >> micron says they see signs of strong demand. the first quarter outlook is above estimates but an accounting change makes that forecast look less than robust. down almost 4.5%. and sompo will buy endurance specialty holdings for $6.3 billion. sompo will be buying the casualty insurance company. it's the second largest deal by a japanese insurer. >> must have been in big trouble because of the deflationary environment. >> hard to make money on the
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premiums. acacia communications expects third quarter results to come in higher than previously forecast this is an optical networks product maker. coming up, the aspen institute is in cambridge, massachusetts, but the aspen institute has teamed up with cnbc and m.i.t. as well. teaming up to host the cambridge cybersummit today. andrew is there. he'll have walter isaacson and talk about the biggest issues in cybersecurity next. as we head to break, here's a look at yesterday's s&p 500 winners and losers. guess what guys, i switched to sprint. sprint? i'm hearing good things about the network. all the networks are great now. we're talking within a 1% difference in reliability of each other. and, sprint saves you 50% on most current national carrier rates. save money on your phone bill,
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♪ >> welcome back to "squawk box" on cnbc. we've been watching the u.s. equity futures, so far nothing to write home about. yesterday the markets ended down for the third out of four sessions. >> right now we want to turn our attention to cybersecurity and a conference being held on this hot issue. andrew joins us from cambridge, massachusetts with a special guest. good morning. >> hi, becky. we are at the cambridge cyb cyber summit. i'm here with walter isaacson.
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a number of amazing people will be speaking here today. michael rodgers. you will have the whole list. john carlin, walter, andrew mccabe, michelle reagan. >> some of the old m.i.t. professors who probably taught joe. >> i want to talk about, we were at a dinner last night, you appreciated how insecure or unsecure our cyberworld really is. people talking about attacks literally happening as we're speaking. >> yeah, at dinner somebody is getting word that they're being attacked. >> it's an amazing thing. >> they're sitting with an fbi person. okay. am i supposed to tell him? >> you have an idea which is to separate out the current internet we live in today and to create almost a parallel internet. >> i don't think it's a physical
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parallel internet, but something that darpa, which helped create the original arpa internet, which created clean slate, you can have a part of the internet, a set of protocols, in which not only do you know where the packets are going to but you know where the packets came from. that's one of the genetic flaws built into the original internet in the 1970s. you never know where the packets are coming from you can be anonymous, a hacker, a bot. if you had internet with secure i.d. verification, authentication, costs a lot of money, but nowadays we're spending trillions of dollars, and if you hang around m.i.t., the iq point the being allocated to cybersecurity, we ought to reduce that. >> when you conceived of this event with folks what is it that you want to get out of it? you put government people
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together with business people in a way that's unique. >> what happened is coming out of some of the events we had been doing in aspen, people like lisa monaco, the president's assistant for homeland security, people like admiral rogers and others involved in cybersecurity said there is a disconnect between three groups, people in government, like the intelligence, people in industry, apple, yahoo! and people in the academic world. let's get a few of them together and say over the next five years how will we rebuild things to make things safer. >> couple of news items, marissa mayer of yahoo! you saw the news that she and the company may have helped the u.s. government search through hundreds of millions of e-mails. >> searching for key phrases. >> and other companies saying
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they did not get the request, and if they got the request they would say no. do you believe that happened? >> yes. i believe that happened and why we need to have this conversation. there should be a certain thing government should be able to request and do. with a court order say we need to know who's been going to this server that is serving isil near syria. we need to know who is getting information in and out of it. we have a court order, help us do that. as a society we ought to say, okay, that makes sense. we don't have rules of the road as we do in most of our lives when it comes to cyber. government can tap a phone with a court order, can it tap e-mail with a court order? >> if you have a yahoo! mail account, would you be unhappy? >> no i'm weird and will probably get attacked on this, i have a yahoo! mail account it got hacked, as you know, a few weeks ago by the russians, they hacked into it.
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they then grabbed control of my twitter account, started saying nasty things. i'm mad when i get hacked by an outside actor. if the government is checking to make sure i'm not providing information, i'm perfectly comfortable with that. i think most people aren't. we have to fine the rigd the ri balance. >> the election is upon us and julian assange may be upon us. what may he have or not have? >> the russians have been hacking in everywhere, arizona illinois, they did the dnc. they're doing these hacks, part of it is to push donald trump who has been close to putin, shall we say, but part of it is so to mess up the system. we don't have one big national election system. it will be a mess if the russians keep hacking in, leaking material through
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wikileaks or other places and it undermines confidence in the electionment one thing we'll talk about today, is our election infrastructure something that cybercommand should protect. >> walter isaacson, looking forward to it. >> with you all day today. >> absolutely. back to you guys. >> we are out of time but we both have questions. >> questions? >> bring them on. >> mine is super official and frivolous. >> walter -- >> i want the super official one. >> we will get that in a second. i do want to follow up, as a yahoo! mail user myself, i'm less upset with the idea that the company got hacked and more upset with how the company dealt with it. if you want to change your birthday, they say no, they want to make sure you get age appropriate information. the idea that they're still holding on to this and telling you it's your problem to go figure out. here are some things you can do
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that might cost you money. my bigger concern is that they didn't tell anybody about this for a long time and they're not helping customers since. >> yeah. obviously they're not doing a great job handling it. but in every single one of these things we can claim the company or the government for not doing a great job handling it, but we need some rules. one is if you want to be anonymous on the internet, you probably should be allowed to be, but what about somebody like me, if you don't want to be anonymous, if you want to be verified v a verified i.d. only let people into your e-mail account that have a verified i.d., we should build a system like that for people who want to communicate with verified, authentic people. we get more and more away from that in the merck of anonymity. >> andrew, are you in the center
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of the campus? what building are you in? >> that's a good question. we have a huge producing team, where are we? >> creskie. >> the joe kernen atrium. >> we're in the joe kernen atrium. >> i'm glad they finally made good on the promise to name something up there. did you go into boston last n t night for dinner? >> you'll get a call from the development office. >> we went to the liberty hotel in boston, which used to be a jail. >> the countdown to jobs friday is on. today at 8:15 eastern, we'll get an early read with the adp private payroll report. keep watching "squawk box" for the instant data and the market reaction. we'll be right back. the experts at cdw brought i.t. orchestration to a global outerwear manufacturer,
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allowing them to handle the recent popularity boom in fanny packs. it's pretty fly. unless being '90s is your thing. well, cdw and hpe services gave them the flexibility they needed to scale up their scale up their cloud resources, making sure supply meets demand. poser! [ classic ringtone ] what's crack-a-lackin'? hey, did you remember to set the vcr? increased flexibiilty by hpe services. i.t. orchestration by cdw.
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welcome back. right now it's time for the executive edge. blackrock is cutting prices across its core group of etfs. the lineup will feature lower
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cost ratios on 15 stock and bond funds. the move comes ahead after new government rule requiring them to put clients requests ahead of their own. that ruling could come in 2018. >> next story is mine. do i have to introduce myself? >> wilfred frost is here. >> otherwise it could have been confusing. >> we slipped into break. >> uptown is not an issue. >> you're fast. >> as long as you leave promptly before 6:00. before 6:30. >> before 6:30. >> you're here for the rest of the show. >> i am. new study shows the british financial industry could lose up to $48 billion in revenue in a so-called hard brexit that would
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leave the company without restricted access to the european union single market. the report by oliver wineman find if financial firms lose their right to sell services across europe 75,000 jobs may disappear. some big numbers from this consultancy firm's report. >> offset a little of that angst with the editorial in the wall street journal today. >> on? >> on brexit, becoming great britain again. a paragon of free markets. the atlantic coast preparing for hurricane matthew. the ceo of generac joins us next. "squawk box" will be right back. this car is traveling over 200 miles per hour.
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♪ for decades, investors have used a 60/40 stock and bond model, with little in alternatives. yet alternatives can tap opportunities that traditional assets can't. and even though they're called alternatives, they're actually designed to help meet very traditional goals. that's why invesco believes people should look past conventional models and make alternatives a core part of their portfolios. translation? goodbye 60/40, hello 50/30/20.
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welcome back, everybody. hurricane matthew inching towards the coastline of florida. the storm already prompting the sunshine state, georgia, and the carolinas to declare a state of emergency. and coastal evacuations. now, storms like these have residents in these areas preparing for the worst. joining us now to talk about keeping the lights on during a major storm is the president and
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ceo of generac holdings. it's great to see you in person. >> great to be here. >> sorry for the circumstances under which we're talking to you about this but this is the preparation before a huge hurricane. what do you see from your perspective? you get calls coming in? >> yeah. obviously we start positioning inventory. we get customers and people who really want to get that product in the area that's going to be impacted by the storm. our phones have been ringing off the hook since this weekend when it was clear there was a possibility at least the track was going to be close to the u.s. we get a ton of phone calls from people who haven't used a product in a long time. these are products that get a lot of infrequent use. something you pull out of your garage every three, four years and put gasoline in and fire up for the small portable generators. people forget how to use them. we get a lot of phone calls around that. and then the permanently installed types. >> what can you do with the permanently installed ones this close to a storm?
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can you get stuff in? >> you can. you have a couple -- it's a very short window here still available. it starts to get pretty difficult if you have an impact from an event. you have to wait until the power comes back on. it's a process. it's a home improvement project, basically. there's a permit involved. there should be. there's the process of contractors. and it's a pretty involved type of installation. >> gasoline powered ones, you're in for trouble because unless your gas station has one of yours, they're not going to be able to pump. >> and we saw that during sandy. >> and there's also lines for gasoline. i should recuse myself. i shouldn't talk to you about this. i have one. >> i have one two. >> i'm and a better person because i -- >> i don't. >> the natural gas, if anything happens any time, it immediately fires up and starts. >> natural gas systems are very safe. it's underground. the grid is aboveground so it's susceptible to weather and the
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things that cause outages. natural gas infrastructure in this country is fantastic. >> how busy -- i'm sorry. >> is the main questions you're seeing the main impact on your people questioning how to fire up ones they already have or people going out to buy them? >> it's both. the challenge, of course, is if you do have an outage event that impacts millions of people, you have everybody running to a retail outlet trying to find one of these products, a portable generator. there's only so much supply available. >> but how cyclical is your business? we haven't seen huge storms. we haven't seen huge outages like we had maybe five years ago. >> it's interesting. weather runs in cycling. i've been with a company over 20 years. i've seen these patterns where you have a couple years where you have aggressive weather or weather that causes outages. then several years in a row that you don't. much more tranquil weather. i don't know why it happens, but something with el nino they tell me.
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those are the bigger kind of weather cycles that happen. so that does impact our business. we've made a critical decision after sandy which was four years ago, we're coming up on the four year anniversary. not that we -- but there are other things we can do well. we've done a number of acquisitions and other things. >> you need to market it all the time. it's like when people go to home depot when the snow is coming and all the snow shovels are coming. it's like -- i don't -- you know, for people that haven't done it, when it's sunny, you need to do it then. >> yeah. you have to plan. it's a purchase you have to plan for. >> you can drive through miles of dark neighborhoods and you can see who has generators. >> it's our best advertisement sometimes. >> aaron, thanks for coming in. >> then the clowns are coming to the house. the scary clowns.
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jobs in focus. a preview of this friday's preview. four things the fed should be doing to fix the economy. former treasury secretary here to sound off. that interview is straight ahead. and "the wall street journal" says it could happen this week. details straight ahead as the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. live from the beating heart of business, new york city, this is "squawk box." >> welcome back to "squawk box," here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and wilfred frost. we've been watching the futures this morning and so far not much
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of anything to really tell anybody about. dow futures down slightly. down by about 5.5 points. the nasdaq up by just over two points. again, though, yesterday the markets were down for the third out of four sessions in a row. there has been some volatility around a lot of other areas. things like sterling, some of the other markets we've been watching. bond yields picking up. i think they're back around 1.7%. >> yeah. just shy of 1.7% today. making the headlines at this hour, investors looking ahead to 8:15 a.m. eastern time in this september adp report. consensus calls for -- mortgage applications rose 2.9% last week according to figures just out from the mortgage bankers association. that increase was driven entirely by a jump in refinancing applications. and amazon has introduced a new
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feature called prime reading. it allows pri it. twitter also making headlines this morning. "the wall street journal" reports that the social media company is expected to field officers this week. the paper says that salesforce ceo has been building a case to his investors for why his company should be the buyer. among the other names that are said to be checking twitter out at this point, google and disney, jim cramer catching up with chris saka last night. >> i mean, look. twitter would be complementary to many of those companies. there's no doubt about it. it has a unique set of data nobody else has in the world and faster than anybody else in the world. their problem is not the input. their problem is making it useful and easy and accessible for all their customers. >> so who buys it?
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>> i don't know who, but i can see why google has finally flipped the bit from thinking about it as not scientific and computer science enough to wow that's the world's best data. if we don't have that, our search results won't be as relevant anymore. i can see facebook saying we need to copy it over and over again. microsoft did the first revenue deal with us at twitter. i don't know about apple's ambition because they've never been good at social and community. but benoff loves it. i don't know. >> all of this talk has made twitter shares really jump. you could see the big spike it's taken. it's up to $24.22. blackrock is cutting prices across the core group of etfs. on stock and bond funds which are marketed to buy and hold
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investors. the move comes ahead of a new u.s. government rule requiring brokers to put clients' interests ahead of their own. what? in handling retirement. that rule which fully goes into effect in 2013 could leave customers investing more. i thought we reported on the same thing five years ago and i made fun of it. >> we did and you did. but it's going to go into effect 2018. i think it was like two years ago maybe. maybe three. >> yeah. we still got two years to wait. so we can talk about it for two more years. >> but you're right. the idea they would put their customers' interests first. >> they were under the buttonwood in the 19th century. and they finally came around and said i know we care about ourselves but let's actually put the client's interest first and see where that goes you wonder why there's a problem with wall
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street. this is you. wilf it says at the top. >> yeah nap is my name. >> it's a short -- did you go by wilf your entire life? >> mainly. since i moved here i get wilfred. >> well, joe is short for joseph. >> you had a choice for will and fred. wilf's better than fred. >> they're good names. but they're not mine. >> don't be so pc. >> anyway. fitch cutting its outlook to negative on wells fargo. fitch says wells could face damage to its reputation from recent regulatory actions and fines as well as earnings pressure. fitch did affirm the bank's existing rating, though, still at aa-minus. which is still investment grade. if you fell asleep early last night, you missed a lively
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vice presidential debate. it was their one and only chance to defend their running mates. plenty of articles note the republican vp candidate mike pence was able to stay cool under pressure during frequent interruptions by tim kaine. >> gentlemen, the people at home cannot understand either one of you when you speak over one another. please wait until the other is finished. >> those interruptions came fast and furious. pence also found himself on the defensive when asked to elaborate on some of trump's policies like banning muslims from immigrating to the united states. by refuses to answer some of the questions regarding trump's comments. >> did donald trump apologize for taking after somebody in a twitter war and making fun of her weight? did he apologize for saying african-americans are living in hell? did he apologize for saying president obama was not even a citizen of the united states?
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you will look in vain to see donald trump ever taking responsibility for anybody and apologizing. >> the democrat also went after trump's refusal to make his tax return public which pence defended. >> we have a tax code, senator, that actually is designed to encourage entrepreneurship in this country. >> but why wouldn't he release the tax returns? >> we're answering the question about the business thing. >> i do want to come back on this. >> his tax returns showed he went through a very difficult time but he used the tax code just the way it's supposed to be used and he did it brilliantly. >> how would you know that? >> because he's created a business that's worth billions of dollars today. >> how do you know that? >> more on last night's debate and what you can expect in this weekend's presidential debate is still to come this morning. all right. between politics, a rising dollar, anxiety about the upcoming jobs report, it seems the markets are just playing a waiting game. for more now on what to expect, julian emanuel at ubs along with
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jack caffrey. we also have earnings and all of these things go into the view of what they see as the state of the economy for the november and december meetings. then you throw the election in. what would you do? what do you think you shoulded do in terms of -- what do you tell clients? >> i think if we look at the data, the fed is talking about wanting to raise rates because thee see the situation improving. >> hasn't paid to look at what the fed is saying and bank on their forecasts for five years. right? >> they have certainly been constructively more optimistic tan the reality has wound up being. but they have, i think, looked, forecast, and then responded to say the world isn't getting better and thus we're not going to tighten until we see the data get better. and that is watchful but
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reactive. >> and you think that what we see on friday and you think that earnings, all these things are going to justify an increase. and the markets should be able to handle that. they'll finally do that. the stock market will cooperate. >> i think you point to this issue which is earlier in the week you had a lot of focus on comments from the cleveland fed saying november must be a live meeting. sorry. not cleveland. november was off the table because they won't go through everything they were looking at. i also don't think the fed wants to be where -- with rate increases looks like we'll get one. maintain credibility. that's not a happy place to be if you're a policy maker. you don't want to be boxed in. you want the optionality of what you're trying to do. >> they probably do want one. they probably want to say they did one. >> the psychological is exactly the same as it was coming into
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the december meeting last year. >> that worked well. for the markets. >> it temporarily didn't. and actually when you look at the setup right now, you could get the same type of reaction over the next several weeks prior to anything in december. but the fact is that we've had some false dons. the data is starting to turn slowly once again. in that respect friday's jobs report is quite important. we think that actually the interest rate market is telling you that the fed is going to have the runway to hike. that could create a little indigestion. but that's the way you get to higher prices in the stock market next year. >> jack, even without a hike, do you think we're set for a much stronger dollar both the rest of the year and next year? because the last couple of days has shown us that on the other sides of all these, the yen, the euro, the pound, there's fundamentalal reasons for weakness on those sides opposed to just strength on the dollar side. >> i think historically you've seen the dollar doesn't really
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strengthen once the fed begins tightening. but we don't have many episodes to draw statistics in that regard. to policy and trying to be a more free trade issue and letting the pound weaken. bank of japan has been trying to weaken the yen except it tends to still be a safe haven currency. so we come back and forth to one being to the earning. and making everyone crazy. >> so where's the rest of the world right now? take your pick. japan, are they headed back towards normalizing rates or are they still full bore the ecb back towards equalnormalizing? >> you're a long way from normal. >> how do we go the opposite way and pretend we can do that when that's why our 10-year is still at 1.6. >> a lot of it is the
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competition for the incremental interest rate dollar, let's say. the fed has leeway to hike, then the spread between the fed and the rest of the world is such that, you know, you could slowly start to move out of negative interest rates. i think that that is a large part of why we heard the dialogue from the ecb yesterday talking about the start of qe tapering. they want to move away from that. it's just a question of being able to. >> if that gets above 11.77, that's where they're off to the races. is this it? are we ever going to see 2? >> yes. >> in the next year? >> time and level never at the same time. >> that was big of you to say we'll see 2. >> right. what's normal in japanese interest in the next years? we still live in a world where you normally -- traditionally
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you'd want to see nominal interest rates in line with nominal gdp. we're well under that. i think we're going to get through just slowly and gradually. >> are we headed back that trajectory or do we risk getting down before we see two? would anybody place a bet on that? >> we don't think so. >> you don't think -- >> if you look at the last several months, we're staying lower for longer which has been the mantra for some time. but the fact is that you've got more volatility now around that lower rate and that's normal when the data starts to jump around. ultimately we think we're starting to plant the seeds towards firmer rates in the months ahead. >> thank you both for coming in today. >> thank you. still to come, former treasury secretary larry summers will join us to discuss four things the fed should be doing to fix the economy. and later an update on hurricane matthew as it heads towards the
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southeastern u.s. "squawk box" right back. used a 60/40 stock and bond model, with little in alternatives. yet alternatives can tap opportunities that traditional assets can't. and even though they're called alternatives, they're actually designed to help meet very traditional goals. that's why invesco believes people should look past conventional models and make alternatives a core part of their portfolios. translation? goodbye 60/40, hello 50/30/20. ♪
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welcome back, everybody. let's take a look at some stocks to watch this morning. micron technology shares under pressure this morning after the chip maker reported a smaller than expected quarterly loss. also issuing current guidance above estimates.
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however, they are discounting that because of an accounting change by micron. despite a what seemed to be good news on the surface is winding up with the stock down by 4.5% this morning. mcdonald's is near a deal to sell franchise rights in singapore and asia. the deal will be worth an estimated $400 million. that company already operates restaurants within saudi arabia. still to come on "squawk box," larry summers joins us next. and don't forget government and businesses are waking up to a new reality. cyber warfare. we're going to have more from the cambridge cyber summit later in the show. andrew is there for us. we'll hear from him in just a bit. "squawk box" back in just a couple of minutes. isn't major medical enough? no! who's gonna' help cover the holes in their plans? aflac! like rising co-pays and deductibles... aflac! or help pay the mortgage?
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invest it in your all business. wouldn't you love more customers? i would definitelyove some new customers. sprint will help you add customers and cut your costs. switch your businesso sprint and save 50% on most current verizon, at&t and t-mobile rates. don't let a 1% difference cost you twice as much. oooo! for people with arg loss, visit in his latest blog, larry summers says there are people -- that this is no time for the fed to be creating uncertainty with talks of a rate hike. secretary summers joins us this morning with his plan for the fed. it's great to see you. thanks for coming in. >> good to be back with you. >> your blog has kicked off some controversy. we've been kicking things around
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here. we've heard other people kicking around things like this. you say this is not the time to raise interest rates. there is some criticism in this plan for the fed. soft criticism, but you would be doing things a little differently. >> look, first thing to say is the fed is completely honest, totally trying to do the right thing, and any suggestion that they're behaving politically of the kind we've seen in the campaign i think is ludicrous. janet yellen is the least political person in the city of washington. and the political thing to do isn't to be calling for increases in rates. so i think what needs to be very, very clear about that at the beginning. that said, i look at the economy and unemployment is below target. and inflation is below target as well. so that doesn't seem like a time to be stepping on the brakes. and inflation expectations have
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actually declined significantly over the last year. that's another reason not to step on the brakes. >> did they miss their window though? was this -- >> i don't know whether they had a window or not because we haven't had a moment when inflation expectations have been anywhere near 2% as captured in the market. i think what's going on is what i warned about several years ago when i talked about secular stagnation which is a whole set of structural changes in our economy. meaning that the neutral interest rate, the one that propels things forward at full employment is much lower than it used to be. and the fed's moved some on that. but the fed hasn't moved nearly as far as the market on that. and the fed right now is behind the curve on the recession deflation problem. the market is telling you that rates are only headed up as far as 1.1% on an expected 1.5%. somewhere in there on an
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expected value basis. and the fed's saying they're going to be raising them to 3%. if the fed is that far behind on an inflation problem, there'd be a hysteria in the market place. yet you have exactly that pattern in the other direction. and i look at the number of people who are without work, many cases because they're withdrawn from the labor force. the fact that total hours in the economy which is probably a better measure than the total number of people has been flat for the last six months. i look at the fed's own labor dashboard. i look at the degree of uncertainty that exists in the global economy. and i say why is this the moment for the brakes?
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look at it another way. they raised rates in december. you know, because of that the economy was presumably a little tighter, little slower than it otherwise would have been. they were way -- they're well short on growth and well short of inflation expectations. in terms of their forecasts from december. if they hadn't raised rates last december, they would have been closer to those things. they've missed on their forecast every year for the last seven. you've got to learn something from that. >> larry, secular stagnation, savings glut, over supply, and lack of demand. who could have predicted this? i've been convinced that rising populations around the globe, peak oil. all these arguments are supposed to be happening and it's been the opposite that's happened.
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>> well, if you looked as i did a few years ago at the trend in the real interest rate, it had been trending down since the early 1990s in terms of the long-term real rate. yeah. there are a whole set of factors. one huge one is technology. because of airbnb, people aren't building hotels. because of e-commerce, people aren't building malls. you need less fewer large studios. >> you get to shop everywhere instantaneously. >> lay firms don't need as much space because they have the cloud, not filing cabinets. they have artificial intelligence, not paralegals. >> fewer lawyers is always a positive. >> whether it's a good or whether it's not, it does mean less -- it does mean less building.
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we've got a lot more inequality. the marginal dollar going to a wealthy person is less likely to be spent than the marginal dollar going to a lower income person. so i think there are a set of factors 37 the imf did an analysis of this several years ago. they concluded that there had been a significant decline in real interest rates. i think we've got to learn to listen and draw from experience. many of your friends, if i might, joe, were hysterical about hyper inflation because the money base went up. >> it's pretty amazing. >> they were obviously 100% wrong and they haven't said so. >> larry, can i ask you about something you said a couple weeks ago? what regulators have done to strengthen banks hasn't strengthened them that much. is deutsche bank an example of
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that? >> i think there are a whole set of special issues associated with deutsche bank and there are some special issues that distinguish european banks from american banks. look. the indicator that was flashing red in 2008 was the market value of equity relative to total assets. the people and frankly i was one who saw that as a serious problem and said we needed more capital in early 2008 turned out to be right. and that indicator which i think is a very good one relative to what are inevitably measures of regulatory capital is flashing great concern with respect to deutsche bank in europe and i think the emphasis needs to be on capital raising rather than
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on what i think is somewhat questionable efforts of reassurance. >> are they messing up by saying they may be pulling back on capital requirements? >> i think in europe there are some real questions about the degree of commitment to doing what's necessary with respect to capital. and i appreciate the political difficulties. but i think that huge amounts of damage to financial stability have been done historically by the fear of dilution of existing shareholders. and that's not whose benefit the system should be regulated for. the system needs to be regulated for the benefit of the overall economy, for the benefit of those who depend on a flow of credit. and i'm not an expert on the details of deutsche's
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information. i would emphasize the importance of equity values as an important signal that should be heeded. and the question of capital, looking in capital in part through the perspective of the market value of equity. >> so to put the issue to bed once and for all for deutsche and others, do they need state aid? do they need a state bailout? >> i'm just not in a position to judge. they need more capital. they need people to believe they have more capital and i expect that that -- that some of that capital can be raised from the marketplace for european banks. albeit at some cost to existing shareholders. look, i think the other lesson of these things is they're always done too late. they certainly could have raised capital, they may not have liked
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to raise capital. but they could have several months ago. and when you miss those opportunities to raise capital, it becomes more expensive. >> like lehman found out. >> that would be the -- i think there are a lot of differences between these two situations, but yes, that would be a lesson -- u.s. banks certainly appear much stronger at this point. but i think we certainly shouldn't in any way become complacent. there are always risks, historical experience suggests any year the economy is not in recession there's a 20% chance it will go into recession. it's different at that point and if you look at the middle east, if you look at generalized difficulties in europe. if you look at what's happening in china, if you look at the
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political risks here in our country, this is not a moment for any kind of serenity. >> we want to thank you for coming in today. it is always a pleasure to see you. >> good to be with you. among the stories front and center right now, the adp report about 45 minutes away. expecting 173,000 jobs for september compared to 177,000 in august. that's just one of several economic reports due to ed ta. the august trade deficit is out at 8:30 a.m. eastern. and both the ism manufacturing index as well as factory orders will be out at 10:00 a.m. eastern time. restaurant operator yum brands is out with quarterly earnings after today's closing bell. is expected to have profit of 1.10 per share on revenue of $3.5 billion. >> you got any tacos in england? i don't think you ever had a taco. >> i have. but i admit that i pronounce
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that one wrong. >> taco. >> they're so good. the worst taco is great. >> i'm more of a -- >> how do you say that? you said that the other day. >> haiti? >> i like it all. >> i think i said haiti. i corrected myself without being pointed out on that one. it sounded wrong. >> i want to give you a best actor oscar. >> i'll take it. do you have power to do that? >> yeah. you guys win just on -- larry, i just violated everything from james madison university that i was telling you about. i just -- there's 35 things you can't say like never say i know exactly how you feel. you never, ever say that. never say the same thing happens to me too. these are all banned. james madison was the place. and i think i just violated six of them talking to you. >> i don't mind. say what you like, joe. >> i do. to a point. thanks to an increase in
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refinancing activity. diana olick joins us with what people are waiting for with refinancing. >> now you got me thinking about breakfast tacos. back to mortgages. total mortgage application volume rose thanks to the 5% jump in refis. obligations to buy a home, not as strong. down 0.1% for the month. and now down a sizable 14% compared to a year ago. that may be due to a surge last year before new mortgage rules went into effect. now, mortgage rates moved back higher yesterday as markets react to speculation that europe is going to follow the u.s. that is tapering its bond buying. this sets the stage for more increases ahead which begs the question why are nearly one in four barrowers still not refinancing. ran the numbers and found a lot
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of these loans are either seriously delinquent are at once been delinquent. another chunk of borrowers have so little balance left on their loans that a refi wouldn't really be worth it. and still more have loans owned by private investors which makes a refi more difficult. in the end borrowers, 13% of them have rates above 5% and could save on a monthly payment. the mystery is why don't they, joe? >> that is the mystery. i would -- you know, i'm looking over -- i don't know how to say good-bye, diana. there's so many things here that i'm not allowed to say. >> just go back to tacos. >> that's a good idea. thanks. coming up, the weather could turn ugly late this weekend across the coast. we're getting an update on hurricane matthew's path. as we head to break, take a look at u.s. equity futures.
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welcome back, everybody. hurricane matthew predicted to be a category 4 storm by the time it brushes the east coast.
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evacuations have already begun in florida. nbc's miguel almaguer joins us with more on the storm's path and the preparations that are taking place there. miguel, we still see the sun but obviously that may not be for long. >> reporter: yeah, becky. those evacuation numbers are staggering. 1.1 million people who live along the coast here in south carolina have been asked to move 100 miles inland. that comes as the governor ordered some 280 school buses later on this afternoon to be prepared to move people inland if they don't have their own vehicles. matthew a category i believe 4 hurricane is working its way up towards our direction. working its way north up the atlantic seaboard. they're also bracing in states like florida and of course both of the carolinas here. they are prepared for a 100-mile-an-hour winds near. stores are running low on water and food. it's going to be a long couple of days here as many begin to work their way westward here
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away from the water line here. so it's going to be a busy day for many folks. thousands of police officers and even 1800 members of the national guard have been called in in south carolina alone as many people begin to heed those warnings and work their way closer inland. >> miguel, last night i saw on "nightly news" i think there were live pictures of people lined up, cars lined up, trying to get out of low lying areas already. is that the scene today? >> it is. it's not just those low lying areas. but even another area in big cities like the one we're at here in charleston, there are lines at gas stations already one of the local police departments here tweeted out if a gas station is out of gas, don't call 911 as apparently some people have been doing. so there is a rush on supplies. many people try to load up their vehicles and get their way out of here before that storm system works its way in here. >> you're one of the ones staying there so stay safe and thank you for joining us today. >> will do.
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thank you. when we come back, the chairman of douglas element is one of donald trump's closest friends and also an economic adviser to the campaign. he will join us after the break.
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and donald trump has been quietly ramping up his fund raising efforts pulling in $18 million in just 24 hours after i believe the last debate. here to talk is robert frank. >> we're joined by howard lorber. he's the chairman of douglas elliman real estate and also one of trump's closest friends. howard, good morning. >> good morning to you. >> i want to talk about real estate and i want to talk about the fund raising. but first on this tax issue that has been the discussion all week. you know, clearly it was legal. if you have a problem with it, take it up with the tax code. but the narrative of donald trump has been that his comeback of the '90s was based on shrewd deal making and creating value. should that change given that we now -- it looks like taxes were a big part of that comeback story? >> well, you don't really know if it was a big part of the
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comeback story. because the comeback happened pretty quickly and the chances he didn't have the chance even to use that loss carry forward. >> $960 million. >> in a short time. we're not even sure over what periods of time he used it or would have to be completely used now or it would have expired. his comeback was because he stuck it out, he worked out things with the bank, he's a good negotiator, and he lived another day to start again. >> right. but you've known him for 30 years. you've been in real estate. and you were with him during that early 1990s which has come into focus this week. what do you think is behind that $960 million loss? is it a paper loss? is it a cash loss? and what do you think happened to it? >> i doubt it was a cash loss. there could have been some, but my guess is mst more of a writedown loss. >> on maybe the personal loans he had. >> yeah. he had a lot of the bank loans.
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it was a bad time in '92, '93 in real estate. everything was worth a lot less. could have been just the markdowns. >> fund raising. you have been very active with fund raising. i think you had a fund raiser for him last week. are there big donations happening right now that we're going to see later this month? >> yeah. that was a very good fund raiser. it was thursday night. >> how much did you raise? >> we raised around $7 million, $8 million. for one dinner. >> and there's criticism that nobody's -- none of his billionaire backers are really putting up the money. are they going to? >> the list of people, i'm not going to disclose it. it will come out in the filings -- >> you're seeing big gifts, six figures. >> 100% six figures. and of course the way it's done is now it goes, you know, in conjunction with the rnc. then it goes through the rnc and they work on the ground game and
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the other things that support the candidates. so you're sort of limited to now -- it's about $400,000 per individual now. but there's plenty of people giving hundreds up to the maximum. >> so you've seen the characterization of donald trump in terms of temperament and much worse that you see from -- depends on where you look. whether it's the far left outfit. but you've known him for years. racist? >> no. >> gender -- >> i've never seen or heard a prejudice word from donald in almost 35 words. >> you're not hard of hearing? you're fine? >> he's prejudice against one type of person. the person that attacks him first. and that's what he's prejudice against. doesn't matter sexuality, color, religion, nothing. >> but are you comfortable with everything he's said on the campaign trail or do you wish he would tone it down a little?
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>> well, you know, i think it's not really what i wish. it's the public. and then also, you know, how he wants to portray himself and how the campaign wants him to portray himself. i'm sure there are certain things he's probably like everyone else in life, that he's sorry -- we wish could take back. >> do you tell him, look it's probably not a good idea at 3:00 in the morning to start tweeting about the former miss universe? would you have that conversation about him? >> you know, i was asked a couple time ifs he listens to me. i say yes, he listens. that doesn't necessarily mean -- you know, he asked a lot of questions. he likes to get information. he'll ask a lot of people a lot of things and make his own decision on what he's going to do. >> can he win if he still makes some of these comments? >> you know, i think he can. i believe he will win, actually. i'm still very bullish on him winning. and again, don't forget you have a candidate that is just a horrendous candidate coming off
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of a career which she didn't create a job, never put anyone to work, has hurt the security of us living here in the united states, benghazi. you can go on and on and on. you know, trump is a businessman. okay? no one's perfect. he's going to make some mistakes. but when you look at the other candidate, it looks like all she does is make mistakes. i can't point to one good thing that she's done since she's been around in politics. not one. >> i want to ask you about real estate. we just had the third quarter come in on new york. you guys cover a lot of markets. you cover florida. you cover aspen. you cover connecticut. what's happening in new york? it seems that what started as sort of a mild slowdown is accelerating and getting worse? >> i think before an election that's normal. but also, you know, you can't -- it's hard to analyze the data. now we report an 18% decrease number of units. but when you look at the volume
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because i look at commissions all the time, it's really only a 4% or 5% decrease. because prices are much higher. >> because they're selling more expensive apartments. >> especially in the new development area. selling a lot more. the average price per square foot for new development went up 35%. >> why is the top of the market the worst part of the market right now? >> because those are the biggest gains. you had a period of five to seven years where it may have been worth $20 million. or all of a sudden when to sell as a resale, they price it at $50 million, they got $40 million. not saying it was probably worth $15 million. it's just in the eyes of the beholder. >> your company helped sell that $88 million apartment that was the biggest sale in the third quarter. it went to contract in 2013.
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>> yes. >> do you think this year we're going to get anything like that again? i mean, $80 million, $90 million? are those days gone for now? >> we just sold an $80 million house in l.a. in new york knowing some things that are going on, i think the answer is yes. >> yeah? there's going to be a big deal? >> yeah. i think there'll be deals equivalent to that going up. >> good. good for us wealth reporters. thanks for come inning. >> thank you. >> robert, thank you. when we come back, stocks to watch ahead of the open. and later the adp private payrolls are out. mark zandi will join us with a preview of friday's government report. stick around. "squawk box" will be right back. '. where, in all of this, is the stuff that matters? the stakes are so high, your finances,
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let's take a look at stocks to watch this morning. endurance specialty holdings will be bought by japanese firm sompo holdings. that amounts to $93 a share compared to yesterday's close of $87 and change. and sears chief executive eddie lampert says the retailer continues to own and operate the kmart chain. the stock has jumped in recent days on word that sears was considering various options for some of the brands like kenmore, craftsman, and diehard.
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and netflix has struck a deal with luxury movie theater ipic entertainment. mcdonald's is near a deal to sell franchise rights in singapore and asia. and according to a report, it says that saudi arabia's reza group is the buyer an the deal will be worth an estimated $400 million. already operates within saudi arabia. still to come, breaking jobs news. the adp private payrolls will be released. the numbers, market reaction, and a preview of friday's government numbers straight ahead. plus a bidder for twitter. "the wall street journal" says it could happen sooner than investors think. that story and much more on "squawk box" in just a couple of minutes. guess what guys, i switched to sprint.
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sprint? i'm hearing good things about the network. all the networks are great now. we're talking within a 1% difference in reliability of each other. and, sprint saves you 50% on most current national carrier rates. save money on your phone bill, invest it in your small business. wouldn't you love more customers? i would definitely love some new customers. sprint will help you add customers and cut your costs. switch your business to sprint and save 50% on most current verizon, at&t and t-mobile rates. don't let a 1% difference cost you twice as much. whoooo! for people with hearing loss, visit breaking jobs news. the adp employment report is just minutes away. we'll bring you the numbers and market reaction straight ahead.
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veep showdown. >> gentlemen -- gentlemen, the people at home cannot understand either one of you when you speak over each other. >> tim kaine and mike pence defending their running mate's stances on tax reform and the economy. "wall street journal" columnist holman jenkins is here with his take. plus firing back against hack attacks. we're live at the cyber summit. the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ live from the most powerful city in the world, new york, this is "squawk box." >> you don't know this? >> he just called us old. >> i did not. i said the music choices on "squawk box" are older. i never know any of them. i said the songs are old. >> as we are singing along. >> welcome back to "squawk box"
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here on cnbc. i'm joe kernen along with becky quick and wilfred frost. >> i never heard this song. >> you heard of the beast tles, right? >> sure. >> you're english. but we had led zeppelin over here at least. that's a homer simpson line. i think he did it with the rolling stones. anyway. we're counting down to -- you have everybody. pink floyd, the who. >> oasis. [ laughter ] there's actually a film coming out. >> that got a good laugh from everybody. we're counting down to september adp report. that one guy is so angry too. >> they're both pretty angry. >> he's going to be really mad that we all laughed at the same time. forecasts of 173,000 in payrolls. slightly lower than in august. could have said coldplay. we all would have laughed too.
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>> they're my favorite band. >> i know you listen to them. >> with the spinach bowl and macrame shorts. >> the 10-year note. it's now at 1.68. >> those are lines from "40-year-old virgin" which you probably also don't know. >> i remembered the line. making headlines this morning, mortgage applications rising 2.9% in the latest week. the average 30-year fixed rate dropping to its lowest level since july. also watching crude climbing to the highest levels since june. this after the latest api report showed all u.s. inventory dropped for a fifth straight week. the energy information registration up 1.8% today. and in global news, british prime minister theresa may speaking at the end of the party conference. she said they will respect the brexit referendum and take
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britain out of the european union. >> the referendum was not just a vote to withdraw from the eu. it was about something broader. something that the european union had come to represent. it was about a sense deep, profound, and let's face it often justified that many people have today that the world works well for a privileged few and not for them. it was a vote not just to change britain's relationship with the european union but to call for a change in the way our country works. and the people for whom it works forever. >> this being described as a water shed speech by various commentators. she cited the likes of churchill and thatcher throughout it. i'm feeling patriotic and moving the pound opposite. hitting 31-year lows. 1.27 this morning. on a programming note, don't
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miss philip hammond storm on "squawk on the street" with me at 10:30 a.m. few stocks to watch this morning as well. micron technology expecting an upbeat outlook. but investors are discounting that because of an accounting change by micron. they're also worried about broader trends in the market. the stock is down by 2.25%. twitter is reportedly expected to field bids this week. among the possible suitors, salesforce. "the wall street journal" says the ceo there has been building a case to his investors. google and disney are also mentioned as possible buyers for twitter as we know. we've been talking about that. david faber's been reporting on it. shares up close to 4%. and constellation brands increasing its full year guidance. that's good for a 3.5% pop for that stock. the white house is revealing new rules that will cut down on
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tax inversions by rebasing abroad. the aim is to prevent companies from shifting profits overseas in the form of tax deductible interest rates to a foreign parent. the new rules would change those payments in equity dividends which are not tax deductible. warned about unintended consequences and lawsuits. we'll get holman's view on this maybe too. in other political news, senator tim kaine and governor mike pence squaring off and the one and only vice presidential candidate last night. sparring over donald trump's tax returns, here's what they said. >> we have a tax code, senator, that actually is designed to encourage entrepreneurship in this country. >> but why won't he release his tax returns? >> we're answer the question about the business thing. >> i do want to come back on this. >> his tax returns that showed he went through a very difficult time, but he used the tax code just the way it's supposed to be used and he did it brilliantly. >> how do you know that? you haven't seen his tax
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returns? >> because he's created a business worth billions of dollars today. >> how do you know that? >> okay. the gop's nominee's taxes are the subject of a "wall street journal" piece today by holman jenkins. in the latest piece entitled "the trump tax setup." i find myself -- i've always hoped that hillary is healthy and well. and i find myself now even hoping even more so that she's very, very healthy and if she is elected able to serve her entire time. at what point were you making today on this? what'd you make of it? >> well, i mean, entire books have been written about trump's casino fiasco in atlantic city in the early '90s. there's nothing new here except for one tax return that said he took this $900 million loss and then we speculate all the press speculates that he hasn't paid taxes since then. we have no way of knowing whether that's true or not. this is a piece of news that's been sitting around 25 years
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waiting to be injected in the weeks before the race. the media have played along in a naive and disingenuous way. >> what happened in the early '90s? you point out business week estimated that donald trump was probably under water by $1.4 billion at that point. >> yeah. he borrowed a bunch of money in the junk bond market to build casinos, buy an airline, buy the plaza hotel. then the market went all to heck on him. >> how'd the market -- i was around but i don't remember. >> there was a steep recession in 90, 91. that was partly it. did not pan out the way people hoped. and trump's casinos were cannibalizing each other. >> bad business person? huge faux pas? >> a big roll of the dice that didn't pay off. >> people do that when they're in the private sector. sometimes it doesn't pay off. >> that's right. and at the same time the junk bond market died because of regulation and justice
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department action. and that -- there went his chance of refinancing to more acceptable rates. >> for some reason they thought it made sense to help companies get in trouble do this to recover. was there a rationale? >> supposing you're starting a small business in the first four years, you lose a million dollars. and last year -- in the fifth year you make a million dollars. while your average income over that period is zero. why tax you as if you made a million dollars a year. if in the sixth year, you're taxed at the normal rate. otherwise nobody would ever go into business. because no business starts out making money. >> should there be limits? i know this is all legal, but if we were to really focus on the tax laws at this point, how would you change them? would you put limits on some of these things? would you do away with them? would you keep them? >> i think the net loss carrying forward is fine. i don't know how trump generated these losses. it's possible they weren't real. but the irs has been all over his returns for the last 20
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years. so if there was a problem there, they would have found it. >> i'm not guessing there's anything illegal there. i'm thinking forward looking from here. we talk about how the tax laws need to change. >> i'd get rid of the corporate income tax switch just a pass through. >> is he not -- the job he's done explaining this has been unessential? >> he has not done a good job explaining. he said i'm a businessman, i suffered a reverse, i went on and rebuilt. that's the end of the story. >> and i continued to make payrolls and continued to create jobs. >> franchise taxes, all the taxes you pay to be in the casino business are huge and he continued to pay those. whether the company or he personally makes money, there's still a lot of tax revenue. >> my favorite thing is this happened and he's got his net operating loss, you contrast that to bill clinton, that's $16 million. he did pay taxes on that $16 million he made in four years with laureate university.
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but i look at the private sector contributions versus public servants that somehow are in a position to accrue vast wealth only because they were public servants. i just -- >> and tim kaine last night basically said nonprofit sector deserves our respect. the for profit is somehow scummy and not legitimate. >> i think it does deserve our respect after seeing what it did for the clintons. i'd like to have a couple hundred million. >> but you've got to generate jobs and growth and productivity gains. you don't get that from the non-profit sector. >> you've got a question for holman? >> i was going to ask off the back of the v.p. debate last night, do you think that helps in the tough week in the polls for mr. trump? >> if pence's point of view on all of trump statements that are indefensible is just ignore them. we don't have to talk about them. everybody's heard this. he's a guy that's been doing other things all his life.
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he's not a politician. let's not take that stuff quite so seriously, i think if that prevails and it already prevails with a big chunk of the electorate. i think maybe trump has a chance to emerge from this dark period. >> right. >> of course the next debate will determine everything. >> sunday night. >> yeah. >> because in watching that debate, a lot of people have made that point. one, hillary was very polished in the presentation that she made. but then again, the people that are tired of politicians, that by definition we knew that was going to be the situation there. >> plus hitting trump's indefensible statements does not cover up the indefensible report of the administration over the past eight years. >> so you're conflicted. you don't know what to do. everybody at the journal, you're -- every once in awhile you say this stuff. then you say my god am i saying something good about trump? you're constantly looking introspective and saying i don't
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know what the hell to do. >> i'm praying to see the trump i want to see. i believe that guy is there. >> we had trump's campaign manager on yesterday. she said she thought he was probably a little too nice to hillary clinton in the last debate and that he didn't get any credit for that. he has said that he very likely will be tougher. is that the donald trump you want to see showing up on sunday? >> he should criticize the record of the obama administration. i don't think going after bill's infidelities is necessary. everybody knows about that. but if you're going to talk about treating women badly circa 1996, there is a rich vein there to get hillary off the topic of this beauty queen. >> to come back to the tax point notwithstanding the point that you feel the press has covered it inaccurately and unfairly. to move it on as an issue, should he now publish his returns and explain loud and clear and the issue will be dead? >> he won't do that for the reason he hasn't done it yet. he doesn't want the world to see those tax returns. i think there will be a lot to
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have to explain. spent the last weeks of the election explaining. >> philosophically, wilf, there are going to be a lot of people that cover just legal tax avoidance as something that's really bad because your firemen aren't getting paid, veterans benefits aren't getting paid. other people have to make up the difference. then there's the other side that feel that people in the private sector have a duty to try to expand their business with payrolls and hiring and innovation and plant building. and that if i can -- whatever i can use to keep in the private sector, which is why holman thinks to get rid of the corporate tax in general. >> i understand, joe. i just asked a question. >> i know. but there is a whole philosophy that if you try to avoid paying taxes -- but i don't know many people that don't take their deductions all the way down the line. >> who has ever won for president who has the kind of tax return he does? you don't see that. it's just too much of an extraneous issue to drag in at this point.
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>> holman, great seeing you. >> great to see you. >> so brett stevens yesterday was -- >> wasn't that great? >> it was the greatest piece i've read but i thought someone else had written it. >> stick around. we do have breaking economic news. we are a few minutes away from the adp employment report. we will bring you that right after the break. how can good paying jobs disappear? it's what the national debt could do to our economy. if we don't solve our debt problem 19 trillion and growing money for programs like education will shrink. in just 8 years, interest on the debt will be our third largest federal program. bad news for small businesses. the good news? there's still time for a solution. ask the candidates for a plan to secure our future.
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there are you numbers right there. goods sector up by a paltry 3,000. the service sector doing all the heavy lifting up 151,000. so you might get some sense out there on the street that maybe they're a bit heavy in terms of where the average estimate is for friday. by business size, small medium
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and large all contributing. small a little bit less than it has been. about half of what it had been in the prior months there. medium and large business coming back a bit. but some of the interesting part here comes in the breakdown by industry. construction up 11 but there's manufacturing which has been challenged. going to go back to february, january this year. it's been negatives and essentially zeros for many, many months now. part of the flatlining of the manufacturing business. looking at the market, i think it's a little stronger isn't it? >> it is. we've been on the flatline for much of the morning. >> was it up already? based on your conversation with holman jen can i said? >> yes. >> actually based on our howard lorber. >> yeah. that was an interesting conversation. let's bring in another interesting conversizationalist here. mark zandi.
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he puts this thing together every month. mark, what's your sense here? on the one hand it's below the expectations. it's below some of the stronger numbers we've had. but there's this big debate out there among economists that this number 150 is even above what the economy should be doing given demographics and the growth numbers. >> yeah. it's solid. you know, it's double the rate of the working growth population. at this pace of growth, the unemployed and underemployed continue to approach full employment. it's not as strong as it was 6, 12 months ago but i think that's going to happen. you know, we have a record number of open job positions. it's going to be hard to fill them. job growth is going to slow and that's part of this process. >> have you been able to take a look at what numbers like this mean for the unemployment rate? one of the biggest things the fed remarked is we've been creating all these jobs but suggesting to folks like fed
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governor there's more slack in the jobs market and maybe we should -- i think the phrase they've used is give it room to run. >> well, i think there is more slack in the underemployed. not the straight up unemployed. the unemployment rate is consistent with employment. but we do have part-timers that want more hours and people that stepped out of the workforce that are coming back in as job opportunities become more available. that's why the unemployment rate has not fallen. we're going to blow through that slack pretty fast by my calculation by next spring. there won't be any more slack. it's going to be a very tight lie bar market. and a year from now at this pace of job growth, our biggest problem i think a year, two, three from now is not going to be unemployment. it's going to be a lack of labor. businesses will be screaming. >> i want to take care of two things with you quickly. first thing i want to look at the current fed funds chart which shows something like a 13%
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probability of a november hike. is the market too low on that? you think that's about right and it goes up to about 57% for december. >> november is right. that's the week before the election, right? i don't see that happening. there are -- >> not political. we just heard they definitely aren't. but you just said they are in a nice way. >> well, who told you they're not political? >> it just depends on how you say it. you say they're political or you say come on. and depending how you say it, people go yeah yeah yeah. capital "p" or a small "p." >> exactly. >> i wouldn't say they're changing the scope of monetary policy because of what's going on politically. >> i heard what you said. >> wait a second. >> i understand what you mean. and you're right. >> they're just not going to move on the week of the election. why would they do that? >> right. it could be four weeks later.
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>> zandi, i'm going to come to your rescue here. see if i could throw you a lifeline. because i want you to do double duty quickly here. you also help us calculate the rapid update. and that's been coming down. we were up near 3% expectation of the tracking forecast. now we're just at 2.6%. really lousy construction numbers brought it down. we have a range of 2.4% to 3.3%. does that feel right to you? >> yeah solid too. 2.5% to 3%. we're getting trade today i think that's a pretty big number. depending how that goes, that'll swing it up down 2.5% or up to 3%. by the bay, you take that in combination with the weaker growth on the year. >> and has 20 bucks in there. it all ends up. we were doing 1%.
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it's all going to average out to that. >> yeah right. steve, i've got a public service announcement. you know, adp next month is going with an expanded version of adp. more sectors are going to be included. and we're updating and enhancing the model that we use to take the adp number and predict the number. so i'm hopeful at least in historical back testing this is going to be a bit more accurate than the current model. just keep that in mind. >> there are seven guys with pocket liners and calculators that just got really excited about that. and -- >> seven? >> i'm sort of one of them. >> and joe. i'm sure he's excited. >> yeah. adp currently at 87.17 a share public service. all right. yeah. >> that was a great tease for the upcoming trade number at 8:30. that the same seven guys are very excited about. >> plus the additional three sitting here. >> oh, you're just making it up.
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>> no. still to come, netflix banking on the streaming giant deal. details on that and much more after this short break. opportunities aren't always obvious. sometimes they just drop in. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. cme group: how the world advances. yoyeah, i do.e? you guys are working on some pretty big stuff over there, right? like a new language for crazy-big, world-changing machines. well, not me specifically. i work on the industrial side. so i build the world-changing machines. i get it. you can't talk because it's super high-level. no, i actually do build the machines. blink if what you're doing
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involves encrypted data transfer. wait, what? wowwww... wow? what wow? there is no wow. new biwhat are we gonna do?ys... how about we pump more into promotions? nah. what else? what if we hire more sales reps? ♪ nah. what else? what if we digitize the whole supply chain? so people can customize their bike before they buy it.
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that worked better than expected. i'll dial it back. yeah, dial it back. just a little. live business, powered by sap. when you run live, you run simple. good news for bookworms. amazon's introduced a new feature called prime reading. it allows prime members to read select books and magazines at no
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additional cost even if they don't own one of amazon's kindle reading devices. the e-commerce giant service provides a rotating library, more than 1,000 books including "the hobbit," "harry potter and the sorcerer's stone" and magazines. meanwhile, netflix may come to a theater near you. inking a deal with ipic to screen netflix movies the same day they hit netflix. as many as ten original netflix movies in the next year will appear at ipic theaters in new york and los angeles. financial terms of the deal were not disclosed. when we return this morning, we do have some key trade data. the numbers just minutes away. plus more reaction to last night's showdown between the vice presidential candidates.
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former oklahoma governor mike keating will join us. "squawk box" will be right back.
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what's critical thinking like? a basketball costs $14. what's team spirit worth? (cheers) what's it worth to talk to your mom? what's the value of a walk in the woods? the value of capital is to create, not just wealth, but things that matter. morgan stanley
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♪ welcome back to "squawk box." here's what's making headlines this morning. put on some new edition and he'll know who it is. or is it one direction? >> there's two. new edition is the old one. one direction is the new one. >> i've never seen one direction. >> i have. but i took the kids. >> crude oil jumping -- >> joe, you've been to some taylor swift, adele. >> i've been to taylor swift twice. i know, i know. i like her. but it's more for the kids too. you have no excuse. you got no kids. crude oil jumping to a new -- that i know of. >> same here. >> that follows the api's latest estimate. showing a drop in supplies for a fifth straight week.
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mortgage applications rose 2.9% last week driven entirely by refinancing activity. the mortgage bankers association that rates fell four basis points to 3.62%. that's the lowest level since july. >> let's get right to rick. we've got some data. take it away. >> thank you, becky. well, we have our august read on the trade balance which is a deficit which is a smidge bigger deficit than we were anticipating. we were looking for something a bit under $40 billion. we ended up with something right around $40 billion. $40.7 billion to be precise. it's fascinating because we really have scaled down in a positive way, made it smaller. you know a lot of these are in the 30s and 40s. you have to go back quite a ways to get a number at 50. that's pretty good news all in all just scrolling through. you have to go a long way so you
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have to go back to march of 2012. so, you know, 39 fits in nicely to give you some context. the biggest deficit of the year was in february at $45 billion. the smallest was right around $36 billion in march. so you could see where this slips right in. of course we all saw the 154,000 a little bit jobs light. but then we grade on the curve now regarding the economy. maybe the more important trade to pay attention to continues to be what's going on with interest rates as we hover just under the 1.70 mark. we have to go back quite a ways other than maybe three closes higher than this to find exactly where the imaginary boundary line is. but probably what you want to pay closest attention to on a closing basis. because that according to many traders and technicians is the yield resistance we're paying attention to.
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becky and the gang, back to you. >> quick question on those bond yields, what's been driving that tick up? fed rate expectations coming forward again or something else? >> no, i don't think it's fed rate expectations. of course that can play into it. and we certainly do see that the 2-year is at some of the highest levels over 80. i think it's a lack of confidence in central banks, questioning of policy that should be questioned, and i think in large part janet yellen hinting about corporates. buying corporates and stocks have made many really nervous and start to assess exactly what's going on here. you know, these temporary measures have turned out to be over seven years. the cost benefit analysis is highly questionable. and in europe in particular they're dealing with the likes of deutsche bank which is kind of the aftermarket to the policy issues. why is that? because we see the issues that deutsche bank has to deal with. but once you get over those and they will get over them to some
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extent, there's this minor notion of profitability. what makes any business healthy. profits. where are these profits going to come from? what lines of business aren't suffering from the medicine of mario draghi? or the medicine of kuroda. i think that's interesting because our medicine is going to get more like theirs. everybody watching this ought to rethink. you know, if a quarter point is so small and american central bank can't raise it, but at the time they're talking about buying stocks and corporates, it's because they see the handwriting on the wall as to the questionable level of financial assets they've directly impacted. these are not the kind of dots we want to connect. >> thanks for that rick santelli in chicago for us. moving on, matthew expected to be a category 4 storm by the time it brushes the coast of the united states. evacuations have already begun in florida. miguel almaguer joins us with
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more. >> reporter: we're talking about massive evacuations. 1.1 million people asked to leave the south carolina coast and head 100 miles inland. the governor here making that order yesterday asking people to start moving by 3:00 this afternoon. it's the largest mass evacuation we've seen in this area over the last decade or so. the governor also says some 280 school buses will be at the ready for those who do not have vehicles to drive them inland. grocery store shelves have gone bare. there's even been a run on things like water. the governor says everyone should have three days of food and water at the ready. it's not just south carolina that's bracing for those possible 100 mile-an-hour winds. they're also bracing in florida where there's been a state of emergency issues there as well. the governor there asking for folks to also be prepared for this storm as it moves in. they're expecting storm surges to be anywhere from five to seven feet so it's going to be a long couple of days as it now
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moves its way north up the atlantic seaboard. back to you. >> miguel, thank you very much. again miguel almaguer in charleston. thank you again. right now let's get to politics. the first and only vice presidential debate of the 2016 election is in the books. much of the latter half of the evening focused on the candidates' foreign policy decisions. but a big chunk was on the economy. for a look inside the debate, let's turn to former oklahoma governor frank keating. thanks for being with us. >> thanks for having me. >> the last time you were on was in july. you did say you were voting for donald trump and that your twin brother has been one of his campaign managers in oklahoma. you've officially endorsed him as well as at this point, am i right? >> well, i said i was inching my way toward trump. i went through a number of other candidates. but i'm the co-chairman with ed neeson of the reagan alumni for
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trump. which i'm not sure it's been announced yet that organization but yeah. so i'm on the trump side. but becky, to your point, i thought last night was pretty solid on the part of both candidates. they were studious. they were informed. they were direct. they were articulate. mike pence did a good job of talking about the mess in the middle east. i think tim kaine did a good job of going through all of the serial statements of donald trump and how they have changed over the last number of months. and obviously his taxes. it was a good debate. the only thing i felt was a little awkward and little unsettling was tim kaine's interruption of pence frequently at the outset. then it all settled down. i thought it was good. the undercard did a pretty good job, i've got to say. i thought it was well done. >> do you think this makes a difference in this campaign?
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we've talked about how there have been some moments in these vice presidential debates in past years. but they haven't necessarily had an impact on the election. is this time different? >> i know the experts would say no difference whatsoever. the outcome is the outcome. but i think people are looking for excuses to vote for or against somebody. i think pence came across as thoughtful, humble, decent. that's something a lot of trump supporters who were inching their way perhaps want to see. a sense of humility, knowledge, and appreciation of the fact they could step into the president's shoes. both of them could. both of them are bright individuals. i thought what was really powerful was the two of them, their conversation about their faith at the end. i thought that had a real impact, a positive impact for both candidates. i of course thought pence did a wonderful job defending the sanctity of life. his pro-life positions are solid as mine are. i just thought it was well done.
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and i think people who are uncomfortable with one of the other candidates might say they've got a great vp and i'll vote for that guy. so i think that it was an excellent debate. i think it was pence by a nose for the fact he was humble and very informed. but kaine was very aggressive and also very informed. it was a pretty good performance. >> is it identical twins, governor? >> well, no. we're close. but obviously -- >> because that is such a -- >> i'm more of a student and dan was the athlete. >> you look so much alike. that's a great thing for a politician. you could say no, that wasn't me. i mean, you can basically never cop to anything you don't want to cop to. could have been that evil tw in. >> the older we've gotten, the more we look alike. but you could say i didn't say that. >> that's what i mean.
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can't pin you down on anything. >> haven't tried that yet. maybe i'll try it next week. >> you know, governor, you point out that the debates are important. vice presidential debate may be important this time. but certainly this second debate we're going to see sunday night between the headliners on each ticket is up there too. what are you looking for come sunday? >> well, i really think that mrs. clinton will be aggressive and she'll be informed. she's a very bright woman. but donald trump's a very bright man. he has been aggressive, perhaps too aggressive on occasion. and he needs to be informed. i think he does need to prepare. not over. prepare, but he needs to give his vision of why a stalled out economy is not good. i shake my head in wonder and sadness the young people living with their mothers and dad and those young people have college degrees and advanced degrees, i
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could not conceive of such a thing when i graduated from undergraduate school and law school living with my parents. but it's an economic fact of life today. i think if trump focuses on the bread and butter issues, i'm going to climb this economy out of the hole. i am going to end this ridiculous isis aggressiveness. and we're going to working to as one american family to be preeminent. i think that's great. >> that was the most frustrating thing about the first debate was hearing unchallenged -- i don't want to say supply side policies but things that benefit the private sector like lower corporate taxes, less regulation, things that really were used by reagan and even jfk. in fact, those were not positives for the economy but actually resulted in the financial crisis. that's what we heard from hillary clinton and it was unchallenged. that was the part that was most frustrating to me that this narrative that those things have been tried and that the only thing that really works is more
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redistribution, bigger government, and higher taxes. when that's clearly -- you know, anyone that's studied economics, that's clearly not true. >> yeah. it doesn't solve any problem. one thing i would like to see more focus on, tax policy to encourage income generation, growth, economic activity. obviously the schools are having a big problem educating people sufficiently well to be able to compete in the next economy. but to focus on day care and focus on even getting rid of the estate tax when 0.2% of the public is affected by that. let's focus on getting the middle income people rich. i think that's what's really important. >> focus on the policies. the policies that are being put forth by the candidates. it's that simple. >> agreed. >> governor, thank you. >> my pleasure. >> if you really are governor keating.
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>> i am. >> we need a telltale sign. >> yeah. yeah. maybe he wasn't available. hey, i'll do it. coming up, cnbc is partnering with m.i.t. and the aspen institute for the first ever cyber security summit. andr andrew's there. we're going to get a preview. "squawk box" will be right back.
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welcome back to "squawk box," everyone. johnson & johnson is warning customers that one of its insulin pumps could be vulnerable to hacking. although it does say the risk is low. that device, the one touch ping insulin pump attaches to the patient's body and injects insulin through catheters. the company learned the hacker could cause it to deliver insulin and cause hypoglycemia. it is low risk because they would have to be within 25 feet to affect the signal. johnson & johnson provided advice on how to fix the problem in letters sent out to doctors and patients. again, they are warning low probability but that is probably something to have high concerns about if you're a patient affected. the homeland security program cnbc and m.i.t. are hosting the cambridge cyber
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summit today. and andrew is there. this is one of the scarier stories i've heard recently. >> thanks, becky. we are going to talk about that scary story in a second. cnbc has partnered with the aspen institute as well as m.i.t. to put together a day really to talk about how government and business are supposed to work together in the future as when it comes to cyber security. and of course the scary story that you're talking about is one reason that we do need to find a way to come together which is yahoo in this report yesterday that so many e-mails yahoo e-mails and i know becky perhaps your e-mail as well since you're a yahoo user were potentially scammed. eamon javers is joining us now. >> we have a new statement from yahoo this morning. yesterday they gave a non-denial about this story. reuters broke the story which said ultimately that yahoo had
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cooperated with u.s. law enforcement or intelligence agencies to scan incoming e-mails for certain characters. they didn't say what characters. yahoo is now out with a new statement and what they're saying is ultimately more of a denial than what they said yesterday. they said the article is misleading referring to the reuters piece. we narrowly interpret every request to minimize disclosure. the mail scanning in the article does not exist on our systems. that's the new statement from yahoo this morning. >> do we know what agency would have been responsible for this? and michael rogers from the nsa is here today. we also have andrew mccabe from the fbi. and john carlin who is the assistant attorney general for national security. one of these groups would know about this. >> absolutely. there are people in the room here this morning that would know. i've talked to a number of nsa officials about this this morning. they will not say anything on the record about this story. i don't think that we're going to get a comment from law enforcement. we're going to try later on as we have them up on stage to get them to talk about this.
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but so farther buttoned up on this. presumably this is either the nsa on intelligence or the fbi in terms of domestic intelligence. what would make a big difference in this story is if we knew what specifically law enforcement and intelligence agencies were looking for. what words in those e-mails do they want people to look for? >> what would be acceptable and what wouldn't be acceptable? >> you know, when you talk to intelligence leaders privately as i have and as you have this week, they talk about going back to first principles of the united states constitution. the constitution itself talks about unreasonable search and seizure which implies that there is reasonable search and seizure. so it's up to every generation of americans to determine what reasonable means in that context. that's what we're doing here today. >> for example, the terms were terrorism, terrorist, or orlando club, for example. broad though. meaning all e-mail could be searched for those terms.
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would that be a appropriate use of this technology? >> you'd have to poll americans to see if they thought that was. clearly the specifics of this will make a difference. if americans can see what's being searched for, they would say that's reasonable. if intelligence agencies are searching for a list of trump supporters, for example, that would be a horrible abuse of power. so what they're looking for, what they're doing with this technological capability is so important. >> and can we just -- >> they won't tell us. >> can we just talk briefly about how widespread this is. this was about reuters -- not about reuters. about yahoo. other companies microsoft google and others have suggested using some wiggle words that they don't do this. do you think they do do this? >> well, i would assume just based on nothing other than knowing how the world works is that law enforcement agents and intelligence agencies didn't just go to one e-mail provider and asked for this.
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they asked a lot for it. we're seeing a range of different denials and non-denials and statements from these tech companies saying that the system described in the reuters article is not one that we put into place, for example. >> so there might be some technical nuance here that's being glossed over in the journalism as we turn zeros and ones into words readers can read. there clearly is a range soft responses here. >> eamon javers, thank you for that. guys, back to you. i should tell you we have a very big day. we'll bring you this entire conference live throughout the day with highlights and look forward to seeing you guys in just a little bit. >> we didn't have time last time, andrew. good haircut. it's looking good. good lighting up there, too. good lighting up there. >> it's nice and bright. >> well, now it certainly is, just like you. >> should we talk to the development office, by the way, for you? i know you're an m.i.t. grad. is there a check coming? >> they ask me for money a lot. >> okay. >> they sent me that tech
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review -- i don't know. suddenly they like me. i don't know, i didn't feel that love when i was there. i don't know. you been over to the harvard coup right across the street there? across mass avenue? >> not yet. but maybe eamon and i will make our way over at the end of the day. >> but you want to cross near mass general. did you go to the liberty hotel last night for dinner? >> we went for dinner, we were all there with walter isaacson. >> atta boy. >> former prison. >> yeah, doesn't feel like that now. and there's another new jail over there, too, very nice looking place. although i prefer not to find out -- anyway, when we return, jim cramer joins us live from san francisco. we'll get his take on today's top story. futures right now are indicated up over 50. 53.5 points. s&p indicated up 6. nasdaq looking up 11. stay tuned. we'll be right back. itched to s. sprint? i'm hearing good things about the network.
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out to jim cramer. he joins us live from san francisco where i figure, you know, everybody is just excited out there in silicon valley. and there's a lot going on. we have larry somers on, i get
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kind of depressed. we hear about secular stagnation and all these things that portend years of low interest rates, which i think portends years of just average growth. are we doomed to that, jim? >> well, i think that if you listen to the comings out here what you would say is that's a very old world view. that's a world which just basically says perhaps digitization is zero sum, we're going to lose a lot of jobs and in the meantime the world is not growing because just lack of what i regard as being fiscal stimulus. no governments are really getting involved. and i do think that in the end if you just look at pure industrials you're not going to see a lot of growth. but if you're out here, you see growth everywhere. and you see growth because this is about where the companies are putting their money in the future. and the future does look brighter. look, everything i see out here is double digit. i don't see anything less than double digit. and people are ashamed if they're not double digit.
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>> great advances are coming -- the time between them is dilating, it's been happening for years. >> don't say dilating. >> it's a dilating joke. sorry. all right, getting shorter. jim, is it possible -- i've heard people say with productivity with technology and innovation gets so great that we may have so much bounty that not everyone has to work and contribute? that we can all sort of just live off the fruits of how smart we are. would that work? is there something to work ethic? >> no, i don't think so. i think a lot of depending upon whether salesforce, facebook, alphabet, the idea that you don't have to go to stanford and be a computer scientist. they're trying to make it easier, not harder. easier for people to be involved in the new economy. meaning that you don't have to necessarily have anything -- a really strong academic backgrou background. you just have to have a lot of common sense.
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>> uh-oh. >> that's the direction people are going. small business will do better, small business creates jobs, a lot of small business positives out here. >> good. all right, jim, i love that view. >> thank you. >> that's the oakland bay bridge, i think. right? yeah. beautiful. i'm the company data hog. i do the sales, the marketing. i have to do that from my phone. we use tons of data. i really don't have to worry about it 'cause everything is unlimited. i need data and i need it now. it's the end of data limits for your business. get unlimited 4g lte data as low as $30 bucks per line. switch your business to t-mobile @work.
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that about does it for us. wilf, thank you for joining us today. it's been fun. >> pleasure as always. right now it's time for "squawk on the street." ♪ good wednesday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with david faber at the new york stock exchange. cramer is live at one market in san francisco covering dream force. big day for macro as adp comes in a little light, 154. waiting for ism, services, kashkari this afternoon, yields remain a big story as oil gets closer to 50. road map begins with twitter, speculation over who might buy the company hitting


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