tv Fast Money CNBC October 6, 2016 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT
have you, thanks for joining us. >> thank you. >> a lot of fun as always. once again, mike and i will be back tomorrow. we'll see who's anchoring with us on that day. that's it for "closing bell." thanks for joining us. "fast money," the gaining is feisty tonight. >> right now. it's crazy. "fast money" starts right now. live in the nasdaq markets, i'm melissa lee. tonight on "fast," stocks are near all time highs. why is bank of america's head of equity calling this market terrifying? she's here to explain what has her so nervous. tech giants are bailing from the bidding war. how much time does jack dorsey have left and would the company have been worth more if private? with hurricane matthew approaching, we'll take you to the ground and tell what you it could mean for the market.
first, the crucial jobs report that has big implications ford for the election and the fed. if you see a good number, what should you buy, what should you sell? guy adami. >> first, what is a good number? i would suggest anything 225 north to me would be suggestive of a good number. if you ask me what would you do on the back of that, i would say you get a number like that, the bond market will sell off, i think. and the stock market should sell off as well. i've got to tell you something, we've seen a number of different circumstances where you've had situations like that and the exact opposite has happened. so quite frankly, i don't know the answer to the question. i think a good number should be extraordinarily negative for the market. but in the market we find ourselves in, the opposite might be true. >> the thinking is a good number means the fed is definitely in play and therefore stocks take it? >> i think you could see a muted reaction until monday. and really, what i'm looking for is what happens sunday night, okay? so if we have a kind of hot
number, let's say it's 200, pretty decent, then sunday night we have the presidential debate, and it goes anywhere similar to the way it went a couple of weeks ago, then i think you see the market start to rally. you probably see the s&p work back towards that prior high. by election, maybe 2200. to me, i actually think november is not on the table. i know that the probability of a november hike has kind of inched up a little bit. last week it was 15%. now it's about 23%. i doubt it goes too much higher. i think the markets will be okay with it, at least the equities in the near term, as long as things stay on track. >> it looked today like we were going to break a significant trend line in the s&p 500, one that extended back to the february 2016 lows. we got abothe ecb saying we're going to do a qe taper. the market took that as a good sign and rallied from that. tomorrow, i think we're in this
very dangerous zone for the market. it's right on a trend line. everybody will be looking and technically ready to sell. too hot a number, interest rates go up. too low of a number, then you have to question earnings estimates for next year. there's a needle to be threaded here. right down the middle, you better hope we're not too hot or too low. if that's the case, stocks go up. >> not surprisingly, brian finding negatives in both sides of this. i actually agree with brian. ecb and boj are more important, their policies are failing. they've indicated qe could be coming off sooner, pushing up rates everywhere. back to your question, the more robust number means things working in a high risk environment do better, cyclicals, banks. em has been rallying with a higher dollar. those things that will respond to better growth. >> how is emb rallying, just because oil is rallying? >> em has outperformed the s&p
by about 15% since may. that's not just because of the oil rally. it's because central banks are in a position to cut rates. they've already adjusted their currencies. industrials, cyclicals, things that have valuation defense. when we talk to sabina, she'll talk about places where valuations are a problem. >> here is the fly in the ointment. >> i love flies in ointments. >> i like my ointment fly-free. but the penultimate jobs report, for the november elections, we get one days before, this is one where one could digest the most. we had an october jobs report that came in surprisingly strong. >> sounds like a conspiracy theory coming. >> well, yes. and that helped, obviously,
obama, you know, with his second term. here we are. >> but does a strong job report help the incumbent? because that means the federal reserve raises rates. maybe they do it in november. i'm not sure a strong jobs report helps hillary clinton. >> here is the other fly in the ointment. also in october 12th, the one and only jack welch questioned the rojobs report. here is the tweet he sent out. these chicago guys will do anything. can't debate so change numbers. >> this is obviously what, 2012? chicago guys meaning rom emanuel, president obama, the current president, obama. >> i thought it was interesting. >> i'm not buying this. i'll say this, hold on real quick. i think the exact opposite could be true. if this is a great number, somebody like trump could come out and say, see what they did,
they ratcheted up the numbers. >> they rigged it. >> this is what the establishment is trying to do to me, vote for me. it could work against it. >> against -- >> against -- >> hold on. >> think about it. it's not crazy. >> that's just a fly in the ointment. >> three flies tonight. >> the welch thing is totally ridiculous. this is a guy who used to manage ge's earnings, a one-cent beat every single quarter. it was total nonsense at the time, i don't think anyone gave any credence to it. i think a strong number clearly helps the democrats because it shows we actually have some sort of lift-up credibility. the fed, if he wants to come at yellen, but that's a different issue. >> the fed moving in november or december doesn't do anything for the president or the economy. >> but the jobs report can. and in turn, that can -- >> that's what i mean. they're not going to go until november. the 25% probability, there's no
history that says they're going to move. they need north of 60. it's going to happen in december. as much as we can talk matter of fact ly right now. >> it goes right back to it better be right down the middle. that's the only scenario that works for actually both candidates and the market. so i think you get too hot, then that's going to be a problem. too weak is going to be a huge problem. >> for you it's a lose-lose situation in terms of the number tomorrow. what do you do? >> you buy puts today, because volatility was cheap. you can buy 'em tomorrow afterwards, it will probably be relatively chip. that's probably the best move to do right now. >> i just don't see much downside near term below 2100 in the s&p 500. i certainly don't see it below 2050 anytime soon. i think we're getting in the seasonal period. i don't think they're going to go in november. i think the market will be
comfortable with a december hike especially if clinton wins and you see us drift up at the end of the year. >> higher rates have pushed this market around in the last couple of weeks. >> right at the moving average. you know where we were last year when we raised in december? we were at 2.2 in the ten-year yield. >> you just don't think the risk/reward is fantastic here. i think it's up one, down two. that's your risk/reward relationship. >> on the jobs report. >> you know, bk just made a great point about volatility. i could make an argument that volatility will get further crushed because everybody is looking for that. sabina is going to talk about how scared she is. i agree. but this market has been -- it's been impervious to everything. i could see a scenario tomorrow where instead of going up like it should, gets whacked.
>> wow. regardless of what the jobs report tells us tomorrow, this could be the end of the bull market. bank of america warning a recession could be months away, and investors are not taking it seriously enough. the head of u.s. equity and quantitative research, sabina, great to have you with us. whenever a strategist uses the word terrifying -- >> did i say that? >> yes, you said it to our segment producer, really captured our attention. >> i don't know if i'm terrified, but i'm concerned. what i'm concerned about is we are seven years into a full-fledged, all out, central bankers doing everything they can to stimulate demand. and yet, sales growth is actually decelerating. we haven't really seen this demand recovery. the other day we looked at all of these indicators that have been pretty good at forecasting recessions, and extrapolateding, we'll hit a recession in the
next 12 months, which i don't think is discounted into the market at these levels. you look at the data, i'm a dat dat data-driven gal, i just don't see the underpinnings of support that i would like to see in order to get bullish from here. i agree with you, i think it's more risk than reward at this point. how big that drop is, our year-end target is 2000, which is what, like seven percentage points lower from where we are today. but what scares me is, the market has been so fragile. remember what happened in january, we got a whiff of bad news and all of a sudden the market is at 1800. i think that speaks to the reaction function of the market. there's a lot of itchy trigger fingers, that could roil a fairly come placiplacent -- >> i listen to that and think i want to be in cash.
>> if you've got to be invested, the two sectors that look the best to me right now are health care and tech. they're both pretty cheap on a relative basis. health care has taken it on the chin because of hillary risk and, you know, fears that the m&a cycle is over. it's now trading at almost the lowest multiples that we've seen. but meanwhile it actually has good growth. it's one of the few sectors that's been boposting good grow. and it is hated at this point. and that i think is critical, because positioning has driven a lot more than fundamentals over the last several years. the fact that nobody wants to touch health care until after the election means to me it might be a good buying opportunity. >> i'm curious, you said 2017 we could be looking at a recession. is there one indicator that folks at home should look at that if it turns this particular way, then it's time to take some profits? >> the holy grail.
yeah, unfortunately, there is no single indicator that has accurately predicted every recession. obviously if there were, none of us would be here. but i think the ones that we looked at were ism, which has had a pretty good lead on recessions. the slope of the yield curve. new building permits. temporary employment trends. and then of course i'm blanking on the last one. read the report and you'll see. >> ism has a fairly good record and a long history. folks at home, if they see ism below 50. >> in general, if you take a longer term trend, and i agree, i think that the devil is in the details here. if we do see a reversal in any of these indicators, then i would change my tune. if you extrapolate from the general trend, the curve steepened, but like you said,
rates are 175, is that really -- >> that's the question, what's the sector you should stay away from? >> when i look at all ten sectors, i think consumer discretionary looks to me like a little bit of a trap. it is the most labor-intensive sector in the s&p. this is where you're seeing age pressure starting to crimp margins. you've got tremendous deflationary pressure from new entrants like fast fashion, airbnb putting pressure on hotel prices. this is basically a sector that's being disrupted. deflation is what we're seeing. margin pressure plus deflation, not a great story. >> savita, thank you. health care. i do think health care is way too cheap. i understand the political risk, the rhetoric that's out there. it will end at some point and people that are starving for valuation will find health care again. so i think, again, ibb, it's
dicey but you want to be there. >> she didn't want to say terrified, i'll at the you what terrified me. the last time the fed embarked on a rate tightening cycle was 2004. the s&p went up from 800 into 1600. here we are now, seven years at zero percent and the s&p is up 200 plus percent. that's what terrifies me. we don't know what will happen if the fed aggressively starts to -- >> you're terrified but you don't mind be long? >> q1 could be a disaster. >> that's a big word, rather than normalization. >> regardless, at some point we're going to actually have to start to get away from -- >> you actually think they're going to hike rates multiple times in 2017? >> back in 1998-1999, all of a sudden it went up, parabolic, it
literally doubled in five months from november 1999 to the high in march. i don't know what could happen. but there's a lot of crazy stuff going on right now just like back then. i don't think they want to see a bubble like that. >> this is a terrified man here. >> they're not inflating bubbles. >> you should have thought about that seven years ago. >> commercial break! >> mcdonald's is celebrating its one-year anniversary of all day breakfasts. the thrill may be gone and the shares are showing it. what's their next move? plus tech giants bail on the bidding war for twitter. how much time does jack dorsey have left? and oil at 50 bucks a barrel, a top analyst says it's got more room to run. he joins us later. much more "fast money" straight ahead. where, in all of this, is the stuff that matters?
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shares are down 4% this year, a year to date low. tim is stuffing his face with an egg mcmuffin. >> whoops. the trade is that ultimately at this valuation -- >> i'm going to go to somebody else. >> i'm good. first of all, we touched on it in the last block, the pressure on the labor force, the pressure on commercial real estate, food prices are due to spike. fast food is a tough place to be right now. when i look at the dividend yield and quality, still a turnaround story, this breakfast story is a widening of the base. that will get more people into the store. >> this is the one-year anniversary. >> so investors are going to say, what is that, can they sustain the growth or can they increase growth on this. so i will defer to tim because he caught this one well below 102. the way i would trade it, i would actually wait for it to pull back to around the 102, the
breakout level, see if we get some new information, then i would look at it. >> top restaurant pick. let's go beyond mcdonald's here. >> okay. >> why isn't anybody eating -- >> because this is live tv. >> i'm the only one that wanted to use mcmuffin. >> top restaurant stock, please. >> i'll give you three in order. >> three two one or one two three? >> now i'm confused. the first is cmg, any good news out of that, the stock is 485. jack in the box has pulled back a little bit, i like jack in the box. i do like mcdonald's. it broke out last november from 105. it could round trip it into earnings on october 21st. let's go to courtney reagan. >> camping world at $22, according to reuters. the company will begin trading
tomorrow at the new york stock exchange under the ticker cwh. this of course is the rv dealership. it's owned, the ceo and founder is marcus lamonas, you know him as the host of cnbc's "the profit." again, the ticker is cwh, tomorrow at the stock exchange, the ipo pricing at $22, the midpoint of the range according to reuters, melissa. >> thank you very much, courtney reagan. when courtney says maintains substantial control, that means more than 50% of the voting rights. this is one in which an investors buys in, and they really have to believe that marcus, who is a founder, is the right person to be in complete control, because as a shareholder, you have less vote. >> he made the company, this is a rollup of all the rv companies out there. he made this company. as an investor, you want to invest with this guy. if you go by his rules, what is it, people, process, product,
he's the people, they have a great process, and a great product. ahead, the president has declared a state of emergency in florida. the latest from the ground and what it could mean for the market. i'm melissa lee. you're watching "fast money," on cnbc, first in business worldwide. here's what's coming up on "fast." >> announcer: oil has been in fire. if you missed the move, a top analyst says there are three stocks you can buy to cash in. he'll be here to explain. is the clock ticking on twitter and jack dorsey as ceo? herb greenberg will weigh in when "fast money" returns. plana overages. wow, no more overages? so that means... go on...say it... we'll finally be in control... and we're back... introducing new at&t plans with no data overage charges.
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of a takeover by food giant kroger. dan? >> mel, the stock opened within 1% of a 52-week, five-year low today. possibly kroger is looking at whole foods. call volume exploded. it was seven times average daily volume. a lot of that call buying was in october calls, weeklies, regulars, the whole shebang here. the highest trade of the day was up about $2 from where the stock was trading. it was banging along the bottom here, you have that big short squeeze. what's really important, when i go back and look at this chart on a long term basis, this rumor could not have come at a better time. the stock was down 9% in late july after they reported a disappointing quarter and poor guidance. again in september, when one of their competitors, sprouts, had
a disappointing preannouncement. timing of this one is pretty suspect. and then all the call buying, a bunch of people chasing it, that's not how i trade these things. >> who thinks whole foods could be a takeout? guy does. >> a lot of things happened on february 11th. it was a day when there were kroger headlines about them making an acquisition. they're back again. i don't know if kroger is going to pull the trigger here but the space has been in place. the stocks have been awful but there's been a lot of chatter in the space. the lows that dan just flagged on that chalk board, you can own this stock and i wouldn't fade it if it starts to rally. more options action, check out the full show 5:30 eastern time tomorrow. whole foods isn't the only name in a possible deal, google reportedly bails out. could ceo jack dorsey's days be
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welcome back to "fast money." in the second half of the show, crude surging above $50 for the first time today, and one analyst says there's more room to one. he'll be here to tell us how high it could go and which stocks benefit the most. plus hurricane matthew come closer to making landfall, the latest from the ground and what it could mean for the markets. first we start with twitter's stock falling 20% today after neither disney nor alphabet are recorded not to make a bid for the company.
apple is unlikely to make an offer. is there anyone out there that could buy twitter and is time running out for the social media giant? our good friend and cnbc contributor herb greenberg joins us from san diego. herb, it seems like everybody's bailing. what's twitter's best option? >> well, twitter's best option is to sell itself at some point. the question of course, will that be at a lower price point, which is my guess. you know, i continue to believe, and i must be the only person on the planet who believes that facebook would be the acquirer of this. it's a niche product and facebook has won that war, to see that stream going up and down the side next to the facebook -- >> why does facebook need twitter? >> incremental value. because it adds incrementally a different group of viewers who look at things differently. people forget, facebook and twitter, just like linkedin and other social media, they're all a little different. so what i use facebook for is
very different than what i would use, say, twitter for. i would never put on facebook half the -- i would say garbage, half the stuff i put -- >> not your stuff, herb, come on. >> the twitter feed of gold, yours is, herb. >> what about google? you talk about facebook is a pew play social media company. google has failed miserably at social. this would give them a mobile messaging platform. what about google? >> that's what we all thought, google would have been the ultimate buyer. even with google plus, it would have been a great stream down the side. when you look at something like tweetdeck which many of us use, that's how you can see these different things all along the side of one another. yes, google would be a great buyer. the bigger question is, if you believe that the business is challenged and that each successive quarter is going to be different, then you assume the stock price comes in, and if the stock price comes in at less
than $10 billion or back to where it was before it became a public company, then somebody sees it as something to tuck in. i've said this from a long time ago, it's still better as part of somebody else. >> would it have been better private? never going public? >> yes. >> okay. >> no, no, always. always thought it should be a private company or part of something else. >> could it be taken private at this point, in your view? >> well, taken private is an open-ended question. by what? it needs to be folded in. it needs to just be doing what it does. remember, very good brand, solid brand, sold niche. larry cramer put something out on twitter today saying all media should get together and do a consortium to buy this thing so it's the new wave ap. but it's not as easy as it
sounds. >> that's what it is already. >> that cuts to the point, it shouldn't be bought by a media company, because they need everybody's content. shouldn't these guys just be left alone to do it themselves? i realize the numbers aren't as robust but how about just leaving the company alone? i don't even though that it has to be public. who cares? >> if you leave it alone and the stock price goes lower, and somebody picks it up. somebody will find value in twitter. it's a niche product. we didn't always think it would be a niche product. it's proven itself to be a good, strong niche product. >> herb, at&t and verizon have been going the back and forth. you saw at&t did that thing, amazon web services. is it looney to think a company like verizon, who by the way is probably ten times the market cap of twitter, would it be nuts for them to take a flier on this company? it's not going to blow their business up if they're wrong.
to your point about incremental value, it's there. >> as long as they don't bass tar di tardize it for the rest of us. you want to make sure if you're the buyer, that you're not the dumb buyer. there has to be a reason to buy it. as somebody who tracks oracle, that would be a terrible acquisition for oracle, no value added that i can see. there are companies where it wouldn't hurt them. that's what's important, that they can actually keep this going and create a -- find a way to monetize it, find a way to set the advertising across a broader plane. >> if by october 27th, the deadline twitter set in terms of taking bids, if that comes and goes and there aren't real bids that materialize, can jack dorsey survive? he managed this process and this process has been going horribly. >> can i tell you something? anyone running two companies, we've all said, everybody said it, that's crazy.
but honestly, you could have jack dorsey, somebody else could come in here, it's not going to make a difference. i don't believe somebody else -- this is one of those companies, you know, look, they have a good team. you've got good people working there doing their thing. it's not a dorsey issue at this point. at least that's my opinion. again, anyone else could run it. i don't think you would see a different end result. >> herb, great to see you. >> great seeing you, melissa. >> herb greenberg joining us san diego. what do you think of twitter here? >> interesting thoughts. i think the euphoria over the last few days will prove to be phoria. there is intrinsic value in this company. i am worried about, as bob refers to, the evaluating evaporating value. >> every person who goes in and
talks to twitter saying, i want to buy you, runs out the door screaming, and announces to the world, we don't want to buy them anymore. there's something wrong. how come everybody's leaving? >> there's no official anything about anything. >> it's not like they have a communication problem. they didn't put themselves up for sale. companies like pandora put themselves up for sale twice, hired bankers. we have not heard that twitter hired bankers and started a process. i think to jump to that conclusion is a little -- the way i see it is this. this is a company that lost a lot of money since they went public, $1.5 billion in net income. somebody doesn't want to blow their earnings up. >> everybody knows that going in. it's not news. >> what is the replacement value, what is the scarcity value for 300 monthly active users? >> so let me tell you. google, they have a realtime search problem, and they have no
social media, and they actually could bring this in. >> at what price? >> at least 26 bucks. that was the ipo price. the board cannot sell it for a dime less. >> all this happened on the same day that dow jones industrials reports that snapchat has filed for an ipo. $25 billion valuation. what does that do? because whenever you get a valuation, it starts with a benchmark, right? it either validates valuations that exist in the market for other userer erusers, a dollar . that's the backdrop that we have. >> if that's snapchat, we have a serious -- >> those are great. >> first of all, that valuation makes the instagram deal look
like genius, which we've all said it is. it's amazing, i will say that i agree with everything that dan nathan just said. >> really? >> unequivocally. i think the deal gets done, it gets done at 26 bucks. i'm not sure if it's google. >> it doesn't sound like you think that. >> i think it has to get done with the right buyer. i don't think they want to sell to the wrong people. you have to remember who started all this, one of the founders and ex-ceo, he floated that thing out there, he wants to get it sold, he's a big shareholder. energy stocks are surging as crude oil continues to rally. one analyst says there are three companies in the sweet spot, i'm give us the names. billions of dollars are at stake for two big drug makers. much more "fast money" right after the break.
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this also reflects the separation of honeywell's formuformer automation solutions business. shares are down almost 4% after hours for honeywell. >> thank you very much, courtney reagan. i'm just reading through the press release. it does cite impact of lower shipments to business, continued program delays, completion of business within defense and space. >> courtney just said, i think she hit the nail on the head, it appears as though the headline is really bad, that's why the stock -- but i think the separation of the business segments, the synergies that existed i guess no longer exist. i don't think it's as bad as the absolute numbers suggest. i think they're reporting differently. i know dan is looking to me because i'm trying to be pollyanna-ish here. if it holds to 111, the stock is
fine. >> this company reiterated third quarter guidance a month ago, and now they're changed the top end of the full year. it's a little strange to me that they have to do that. >> the sales are down. it doesn't seem to me that synergies are not working. sales are down. >> in terms of other industrials, general electric and so on, none of those are moving along with the decline that we're seeing in honeywell shares. also a quick scan of defense names, no impact there as well. >> these guys are right, it's a second consecutive downgrade. it isn't dramatic. the stock trading has banged around between 110 and 120 for the last six, seven months. if you're one of these people who like to pick things up, you can use this in the afterstock market.
meantime, we're watching hurricane matthew as it barrels toward florida. cnbc's morgan brennan is there with the latest. morgan? >> reporter: hey, melissa, that's right. as hurricane matthew begins to move into the florida coast, it's only about 100 miles east-southeast of palm beach right now. you've got more than 1.5 million people that have been strongly urged to evacuate over and over again today. so here in daytona beach, you've got residents and businesses that are bracing for what could be the worst hurricane to ever sweep through this area. so if you take a look here, we've got businesses that have boarded up their properties. you've got sandbags everywhere. this is a scenario that stretches back for miles off the beach. i will note there are a few holdout bars here in daytona beach still serving up drinks to stragglers, trying to make money as long as they can. we've seen a big uptick of flight cancellations, 3,700 flights have been cancelled for
the area so far, with the major business orlando hub fully closing down that airport, fully closing down tonight and into tomorrow. american airlines has been the most impacted in terms of flight cancellations because it's got that hub down in miami. many hotels are closed or closing. theme parks have closed as well, including notably walt disney world's resort, which since it was created and opened in the 1970s, has only, including this time, been closed four times in its history. this is really an ugly storm that we're sort of bracing for right now. and while there's a lot of business impacts and economic impacts already starting to show up here, ahead of this storm, i think the most important thing to remember is people just need to stay safe and smart and they need to get to safety. >> morgan, where are you headed right now? are you staying there in daytona bea beach? >> reporter: i am staying in
daytona beach, i'm actually at a hotel down the strip here. a number of officials, media, power company folks are going to be staying in that building as well. but in general, to the general public, these bridges are closing off tonight. >> all right. morgan, thank you, stay safe. morgan brennan in daytona. immediate impact, hotels, airlines, cruise ships, and a longer impact because it's going to potentially go up the east coast, could be a thousand miles of coastline that could get hit by some part of this hurricane. >> it's hard to make a longer term investment decision off of this unless there's some tragedy where it loops around and really does some devastation. but home depot was up today. i certainly wouldn't chase home depot based on the storm. coming up, health care will be in focus this weekend as bristol-myers and merck release key data on sunday. we'll tell you just how many money could be at stake. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, first in business worldwide.
>> so crude soil and also stocks, we've tried to not overcomplicate it this year. we think demand is going to be over supply growth in '16, '17 and '18. we feel brent is going to exit at 50, this is has been a group that's outperformed. we think there's legs to this rally. it's going to continue to provide positive performance. you think about the big integrated oil companies, it's going to be kind of hard not to make solid total return. >> what are your top picks, doug? >> it starts with shell, bp, chevron. all these companies are going to benefit from the cost reduction that they've undertaken this year from higher oil prices. they all now break even at $50 per barrel. these big dividend yields, 5%, they're trying to get -- we have a lot to work with here. these companies are getting a
lot more if you could than they have been. if we start to see returns in valuation, these stocks could go to being multi-year stocks. we're encouraged. >> we have to let you go, but you come back and visit too. doug terreson. tim, this is music to your ears. you have some of these names. >> i think rds is a great call. the question i have is whether the valuations that made the book value of things still things you could value where you did a few years ago. look petrobas, this is a company that's up massively over the last couple of days, partially because they're selling assets. >> health care, billions of dollars are at stake. meg terrell is here with a little stock therapy. >> hi, guys. folks need a little stock therapy or therapy in general, back in august. you remember when bristol-myers and merck had those massive swings, bristol-myers losing $20
billion in market cap in one day, merck gaining, on data for lung cancer, two big immunotherapy drugs. you can see how they split in august on this data. there is a european cancer conference starting tomorrow in copenhagen, it's essentially the european asco. really lung cancer is where people are looking because of what happened in august. merck and bristol-myers have similar drugs but they've taken different strategies in how they're testing them. essentially merck took a narrow patient population that they expected would be helped more by the drug. bristol-myers took a much broader patient population. that's what people are attributing the studies too. it was the bristol-myers drug that failed in a lung cancer study for patients who hadn't tried other drugs. this weekend we'll see more data from both companies. people are looking particularly for bristol-myers data. that data set in the same patient population as merck
assessed its drug in. they're going to try to see if they're similar. 60% of people expect those data to look similar. if bristol meyer's drug doesn't look as good as merck's, that could be bad news for bristol-myers. we'll also be looking at the hot new areas of cancer drug development, a lot of potential movers. >> i will choose. the he found last year, around this time last year, maybe it was on the show, cloveis went down in one fell swoop. this is for the risk, the people that are interested in a high risk/high reward trade. there's a 35% shortage in clovis. it has found significantly any hint of good news, it will get back to 100.
>> is it going to be as binary as in august? >> i can't imagine it will be as binary, that was the most shocking event anybody has seen in this space. >> that's good news for investors. health care is one of the weakest performing sectors, biotech has a cloud hanging over, then you have the hillary rodham clinton factor. >> and insurance rates going up next year which could impact obamacare. you have a lot of negatives in health care. i would be a seller. >> we even heard this from savita. >> everybody hates it. >> everybody hates it and at least in big farmer you have this biotech component, you have a pipeline, you also have a steady dividend yield. merck to me looks interesting on valuation. >> thanks, meg terrell, stock therapy. up next, the final trade. new bikes aren't selling guys...
what if we hire more sales reps? ♪ nah. what else? what if we digitize the whole supply chain? so people can customize their bike before they buy it. that worked better than expected. i'll dial it back. yeah, dial it back. just a little. live business, powered by sap. when you run live, you run simple. welcome back to "fast money." as you may have heard, today is national poetry today. in honor of the occasion, we bring to you deep thoughts by a man some consider a poet himself, elon musk. take a listen. >> announcer: deep thoughts by elon musk.
>> i need to find a girlfriend. that's why i need to carve out just a little more time. i think maybe even another five to ten. how much time does a woman want a week? maybe ten hours? that's kind of the minimum. i don't know. my family fears that the russians will assassinate me. in the distant future, people may outlaw driving cars because it's too dangerous. you can't have a person driving a two-ton death machine. >> says the seller of death machines. that was brilliant, i thought. >> that was scary is what that was. total, valuation, big dude, i think they turn it around. >> i was talking health care earlier, i think they sell some umh, take some profits. >> the twitter, no news. in the next couple of days
you'll probably see the stock at 17, that's where you buy it. >> chicago mercantile exchange. see you back here tonight for more "fast." don't but anywhere, "mad money" with jim cramer starts now. my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. ♪ hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job is not just to entertain but to educate and teach you. so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. i'm out at cnbc one market in san francisco this week for our invest in america,