tv Squawk on the Street CNBC November 2, 2016 9:00am-11:01am EDT
suboptimal. you can tell me life is relative if you want, but i'm curious knowing her the way you do. >> i can tell you that people who are pushing hillary left like neera will say that. but i will tell you people that know hillary or what she will do when she works together with opb. >> bob johnson, the one and only. we appreciate you being here. be sure to join us tomorrow. "squawk on the street" begins right now. ♪ good wednesday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber at the new york stock exchange. the s&p poised for a seventh straight decline, something we've not seen in five years as bonds, gold, the peso, the vix all point to heightened volatility ahead of the election. europe's lower as well. oil down four days in a row and
inventories are on the way. our road map begins with the election six days away. polls show pretty much a dead heat. hundreds of economists including prize winners urging voters not to vote for trump in an open letter. >> alibaba shares are on the rise this morning, the world's largest retailer showing strength and cloud and in mobile. and big beat for time warner, company also raising full year forecast as it gets ready for that merger with at&t. call is wrapping up and we'll get you headlines on that. but first up, futures are moving lower a day after the s&p extends its losing streak to six. data from adp shows private sector added 147,000 jobs last month, that is below expectations. meantime, the fed's latest interest rate decision and policy statement 2:00 p.m. eastern time. and of course six days until the election, jim, the past six days on all of the assets i just mentioned, is that all jitters ahead of tuesday? >> you know what, i'm going to say it is. i was talking with my friend
sara eisen off camera, people should watch your show at 5:00 this is hilarious she and wilf go right and back on politics. and there was a conference call last night -- yesterday by craig arnold, new ceo of eaton, i don't think people realize how much ceos are trying to avoid talking about politics. they will do everything they can to just say be straight. he finally came out and said it, he had a bad quarter. sorry to read this but i have to. we're struggling with data feeds very much like others but we think the message that kutds through all these conversations is uncertainty. think about any person running a business today and making a long-term capital commitment in the face of an economic environment and presidential election that's been as noisy as this one with as much uncertainty around the environment we're going to be dealing in, it's a little bit understandable that companies are pausing and waiting to see how things play out before they make a decision around major
capital multi-year commitments. bingo, that's what's happening. and i think every ceo just like they have that stuff at the beginning where they say that stuff, you know, like this is the future, blah, blah, blah, they should have that. because this is the first guy honest enough to say this is what's happening, people. now, it's not only electronic arts call because people still play video games. it's not on the domino's and pizza hut because they're still eating pizza and it's not on the molls molson because they're still drinking beer. the only stuff still selling is video games, pizza and beer. >> you need to look no further from this letter that carl referenced to understand why there might be some uncertainty if there's a trump presidency. the economist saying things like his statements reveal a deep ignorance of economics and inability to listen to credible experts who mislead fake and economic statistics pushes fallacies about the trade competitiveness, promotes magical thinking, conspiracy theories over sober assessments of feasible economic policy
options. fascinating stuff, but it goes to the point that you're raising, i think, and it's been raised by that ceo which is simply we don't know what it will be like. >> i see you that speech and i raise you with a tweet from bernie sanders about insulin up 700% when there's a price war n on insulin. i don't know if you saw -- 41 open at 35 because there's a price war. so you have a senator who's going to be incredibly powerful, right, if everything goes his way in the senate. and he tweets that a lily drug, which hasn't had a price increase, right now there's a price war, is too high. which you could argue it is. and all the drug stocks get completely hammered. so we've got economists who don't like magical thinking which by the way year of magical thinking a very good book, we've got a tweet that destroys the drug stocks and in this environment what are we supposed
to do? let's pick up some united technologies, i feel great. >> you are not in a buy the dip? >> i feel awful. >> you're not in a buy the dip mood. >> i bought the cubs going in. i'm thinking about buying -- i bought the cowboys on sunday. >> buy a lot of soup. >> no, campbell soup is having a terrible quarter. see, there you go, right? why don't you buy health care, eli lily, sorry. >> right. >> domino's delivered early on in the quarter. estee lauder, people have to look good when they step out because of selfies. instagram -- oh, i'm sorry, people don't do instagram anymore. >> they do snapchat. >> snapchat is from -- it's 15 to 18-year-olds who want what you want. instagram is the demo. >> that's not right. snapchat's got the demo. yes. >> they don't have the demo and the advertisers don't want it. >> what?
what? >> the advertisers want instagram. im telling you this. >> really? >> i saw a story last week that goldman's advertising on snapchat. and i saw a story yesterday that j. on insta. >> is anyone advertising discovery? >> not enough i guess. internationally it's a bit tougher, yeah. and in general. although the advertising environment's not that bad. >> no. i'm coming back to this notion that this has become a very tough quarter as it goes on. and if i look at even the companies that reported earlier, they weren't so close to the election, they were pre-comey, and pre-comey had some better numbers. you now have the conference calls themselves if you listen to them, like the guys are like, well, you know, could you speak up, please. >> i did make a list of companies raising guidance today. zillow, etsy, time warner and
square. >> yelp had good numbers. terrific. those are some new economy companies. square, those were all very good. square had some very good things to say. yelp by the way it's radical transformation. time warner i'm going to leave to you. the electronic arts call was incredible. that stock was just crushed in after hours. and then you listen to the call and you say well who are those morons selling it. the call was extraordinary how good it was. people love playing video games at this moment. by the way they're not even sprucing their house up. they're just sitting there, we know that because home depot goes down every day. they're not wearing new clothes. they're wearing old clothes. the only thing good judging from tide numbers from proctor, they're washing their clothes. and febreze, maybe their space smells better. >> activision is tomorrow. >> i think activision and take two will be very good.
yelp is the confusing thing for me because that would indicate periodically they go out for a meal. >> well, it's hard to get out of the bunker. >> well, you know, yelp, they have delivery services. >> oh, okay. >> meantime, the battle between hillary clinton and donald trump intensifies with less than a week to go before election day. five days, 14 hours and 52 minutes. let's get to eamon javers live in washington with the latest. hey, eamon. >> good morning, carl. with less than a week to go you get the sense this is a race that is tightening in its final days. take a look at this "the washington post"/abc poll that's out showing a dead heat here between hillary clinton and donald trump. this is conducted october 28th through the 31st. hillary clinton 46, donald trump 46, gary johnson at 3 and jill stein just at 2% there. so a dead heat according to that poll. but i want you guys to take a look at this note that goldman sachs put out last night because i think it's important to get a sense of what wall street's baseline expectation is. goldman sachs says, secretary
clinton is still seen as twice as likely to win the white house next week as mr. trump. nbc's own battleground map shows hillary clinton with 274 electoral votes, that's more than is needed but is down from last month. they also show that donald trump has got a total of 180, that's up from 157 in mid october. so that gives you a sense that this is a tightening race. wall street's expectation i think you can use that goldman sachs note as a proxy for what the street thinks generally is going to happen on tuesday. so a tightening race, wall street's expectation still is a hillary clinton victory. anything different than that would be a miss by wall street expectations lingo. so look at it in that context that the experts here still think hillary clinton is headed for a win here but a very, very dramatically tightening picture. and that adds to all the tension going into tuesday, guys. >> eamon, we'll be talking to you soon. eamon javers in washington. we talked to mark cuban on
"squawk alley" yesterday. he put a hedge on some of the biggest he's ever had because of uncertainty related to the election. would you be doing that? would you be buying gold ? >> i feel if you feel this way, and others feel this way which means hedges are too expensive. now, mark plays with a lot of house money. if you're not, then you should go into cash. >> there's some puts. you could have bought puts a few weeks ago not that expensive. >> pre-comey, it's pc -- >> yeah, prior to comey. >> but before comey -- >> plenty hedge funds moved to more cash. not all cash. >> for people at home and for hedge funds actually i would raise cash, did that for travel trust, not hedge fund. if you could do fancy, should gold go higher here. i'm sucking in with the gold stock which is are terrible but gold itself is interesting. i just feel like we're in a moment here where it doesn't
really matter until this thing is over. particularly in health care. >> what if trump wins? >> what if trump wins? >> yeah. >> we readjust. business as usual. find stuff that works. we readjust. >> you think we go down november 9th, 10%? >> there's still a lot of people feel it's like 538. people still feel it's a done deal for hillary. >> that's where goldman is getting their stuff done. it's not like they have proprietary models, they're going off the websites everybody goes to. >> although this "the washington post" poll not only has trump and clinton tied now, but trump with an eight-point advantage on honest and trustworthy. it's also get out the vote ground game gap that we're trying to make sense of. by the way, we heard from peter thiel on monday endorsing trump. yesterday we talked to cuban and we did ask him what a trump victory would mean for the markets. >> if he's going to say things that are stupid and offensive,
that could lead to some sort of military action, not originating from the united states but from another country, that is the worst thing possible for the stock market. and that uncertainty because, you know, you have a candidate that doesn't know when not to talk, there isn't anything worse for the markets because that complete uncertainty, you know, the idea that what he could say tomorrow could impact markets worldwide, that's going to pull people out of the market. and part two to that is if we see any uptick in interest rates at all, then it's going to look like a great deal just to put our money into treasury or bonds or something very safe. >> so that's his point is that investors are not accustom to discounting what trump says, whether it's bluster, whether it's truth. >> well, yeah, i follow mark closely for, i don't know, for 25 years. i mean he speaks his mind. he's been right far more than he's been wrong. it's just, again, i come back to
the idea that in any regime there are things that work and things that don't. initially you have a big downdraft and then you take a look. >> most people are in index funds at this point. >> right. >> so if the s&p goes down 10%. >> do they want to step aside? you tell them to step aside and then it comes back up and you're the goat of the game. i mean i remember i told people to step aside dow 11,000, dow 10,000, goes to 6,000, said it was bottomless i'm with the late mark haines, say you idiot, you got us out at 10,000. when you tell people to get out, be careful. that's why i'm saying, look, we'll find a way to deal. if you want to raise some cash, that certainly makes sense. not a lot of things are working here. but if you just say get out, that's been a sucker's game even if you tell them. >> election night you're going to want to keep it here for all of that. our special election coverage begins tuesday 7:00 p.m. eastern time and continues well into the
evening. who knows, maybe into the wee hours. we will find out on tuesday. time warner's out with earnings, the first since agreeing to be acquired by at&t and that $58 billion deal. we're going to get to that after a short break. we'll get to square. baba, clorox, microsoft has an event today at 11:00 a.m. eastern time in new york. more "squawk on the street" from post nine in a minute. siness bey when growth presents itself? american express open cards can help you take on a new job, or fill a big order or expand your office and take on whatever comes next. find out how american express cards and services can help prepare you for growth at open.com.
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time warn heer out with fir earnings report since agreeing to be acquired by at&t. quarterly results were ahead of expectations in fact. the third quarter showing a company that some would say is delivering on promises made a couple years back when it was in that fight to defend itself against fox's bid to acquire it. better than expected tax rate meaning a lower tax rate or tax benefit certainly seemed to help, but overall adjusted eps of $1.83 or $1.55 including that benefit better than anticipated.
generally saw more strength than had been anticipated at the turner networks. hbo a little lighter in some of its results than had been thought by some of the analysts who follow the company. but overall, guys, a very positive report from time warner. the question though continues to be what are the chances that at&t succeeds on the regulatory front getting its deal through. many say it should given its vertical integration though there is a story today in "the wall street journal" talking about how nothing -- how this idea of zero counting against your data charges when you take at&t's streaming offerings could be an issue. and then there's also this continued question, is there anybody else outd there? >> that's what i wanted to ask you. i see that and i say, hey, you know, maybe that's a pretty good deal. >> and the question of course that has come back to focus on
apple. in fact bewkes asked on the call were there any companies showed interest in acquiring time warner, mr. bewkes' answer was let's focus on at&t. what i can tell you right now according to people familiar with apple's thinking, it's not interested. apple is not interested in buying time warner at present. these things go on for months and months, this regulatory review's going to take at least a year. the deal will not close, certainly if you're in apple, you watch the stock price and see how things progress, again, apple not interested at this time. and it doesn't appear there would be any other potential interest. google had been mentioned at one point or another, but right now it's at&t's, it will be at&t's, and the question is do they get it through, what conditions do they agree to in order to get it through the regulators. >> can i ask you a readthrough? i know disney reports soon, but
is -- time warner's got sports programming. time warner's got some time shift program. time warner's got movies. this was a really good quarter for that mosaic. >> yeah, it was. >> disney's got a similar mosaic and yet people just keep selling the stock of disney. when i look at this what time warner can generate cash flow and earnings, why should i not think -- i mean, i know you come back, jim, espn is disney. >> but that's what it is. s espn is the main cash generator for disney and the subs have been going down. it's over time and that's real. and that's expected to continue to some extent. and i'm sure that's gotten the attention of the gentleman who runs disney. >> no, i know, there was a -- >> my guess would be -- >> neilson -- >> he's trying to figure it out. >> just putting it out there. >> the espn sub sns. >> yeah, talking mr. iger thinking what can we do to make sure this is not a real threat
to us. >> not to mention 20 months left in his term. >> right. what can i do prior to my leaving? and, you know, the fact they were serious for twitter sends a message to me. they didn't follow through, but they were serious. >> right. just putting it out there because people are going to say, wait a second, this wasn't so bad. but espn is much more dominant than sports programming. >> and more important. >> just putting it out there. i hear you. you know where i'm coming from. >> you know i do. >> when we come back we'll get cramer's mad dash, count down to the opening bell. take another look at the premarket on this wednesday, talk more about oil, adp today was slight disappointment and that fed decision just a few hours away.
we got a mad dash for this, what are we? we're on hump day. that's always nice. >> that is a positive. >> you want to talk a little game stop, which is not a positive this morning. >> no, it's interesting electronic arts reported great numbers last night. old days you think that's good for game stop, but you know what, dave, people don't buy these games, they don't buy madden, battle front at game stop anymore. they buy a lot of the loot, the other stuff that goes with gamestop. people looking for minus 1%, came out minus 6% same store, very, very big misses,
preliminary numbers. and there were a lot of people kept hoping this thing would be revised upward. instead it went the other way. there's a very big short position preventing the stock from going down. this is shocking because there is a continual belief this company will return. >> why? if there's a thesis and proved correct the stock is down simply people are not going to these stores as much. >> i agree with you, but there's a narrative that continually tried to change what's in the stores that may be all the different characters that go with different games and he's trying to develop other kinds of stores. it's not working. >> right. jim, standby, we've got some breaking news on ford. we want to get to phil lebeau for that. phil. >> david, ford delayed its release of october sales numbers yesterday coming out this morning, a decline in october of 11.7%. that is a bigger decline than was expected. what's interesting is this now
sets up whether or not we get the final number for the sales rate for the month of october, which auto data calculated at 18.28 per million vehicles yesterday might be closer to 18 million. still an incredibly strong month in terms of a sales base, but again, ford coming in weaker than expected. guys, back to you. >> all right, phil, thank you. we're going to take a break now hit the opening bell, of course talk more about ford on the other side of that break. and we got earnings from allergan and alibaba and many others we'll get to as well. want a great way to help our children thrive? then be sure to vote yes on proposition 55. prop 55 doesn't raise taxes on anyone. instead, it simply maintains the current tax rate on the wealthiest californians to prevent education cuts that would hurt our kids. no wonder prop 55 is endorsed by the california pta, teachers and educators.
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you're watching cnbc "squawk on the street" live from the financial capital of the world. the opening bell in less than a minute. a busy wednesday here as we await the fed decision this afternoon, six days to the election. adp came in a slight disappointment, watching almost every asset that implies volatility whether that's the vix, gold, bonds, equities obviously on the longest losing streak of the year. got some m&a though going. >> yeah. i don't know if enough to do the
job. i mean, this again in the little niche area of technology. the company that did it is the brilliant broadcom. kind of soup and nuts perspective what he can offer people. he used to be limit people to cell phones, the man is brilliant. serial entrepreneur, serial buyer of companies, brilliant man, but really limited to broadcom. >> sure. >> there's nobody on takeaway to brocade. brocade has been kicked around for years as a possible bridesmaid, not the bride. >> there's the opening bell at the big board this morning. arconic marking its separation from alcoa, the raw aluminum producer at the nasdaq gds holdings, developer and operator of data centers in china with an ipo. think of all the names we're
getting used to, arconic, yum china. >> it's great you mention these. yum china, the stock the volume doubled the last hour. why is that? people want that china play. remember, the communist party is now allowed to be involved in little bit more, but that's positive. yum china is a pretty good road map. i think people want that. i think it was a very well received deal. our -- arconic not as great, why? goldman starts with a sell, it was difficult to understand, you have one share for three shares that ratio itself was kind of mind blowing. the capital structure itself was hard to understand. morgan stanley recommended it today. arconic is about 60% aerospace. goldman didn't like half the end markets. stock got hammered, travel trust owns it for long term trying to get a bigger position in it, but
frankly stunning lack of prep on the street because the street just wasn't ready for it. versus yum where the street was so ready for it and was salivating at the chance for a play china. by the way china is continually positive theme this quarter. emerson liked china, eaton liked china, very, very positive. >> gdp since the spring is around 7. >> there's been lots of positive commentary. truck build in china very good. gm's very good. this just came out what i'm focused on playing for a very, very -- i like that, high level pricing pressure going to the all-important holiday season. that does not just make you feel who nl after l. brands yesterday. i'm looking for a place to hide. it's certainly not going to be in gamestop. we're just at this moment right now where everybody is on edge. someone came in to me last night and said how about buying facebook? >> post tonight. >> yeah.
i like facebook. i'm not risking defenseless receiver out there. thought that's a little extreme. >> you talking to richard sherman again? >> no, no, everyone's defenseless when it comes to richard sherman. >> speaking of china it is worth looking at alibaba this morning. >> there you go. great segue. >> thank you. stock reported 55% year or yooeyear increase in revenues. increase in cloud unit, continue to hear that. revenue from core commerce up 41% year over year. the analysts who followed the company seem excited by what is both monetization and a margin expansion at alibaba. mobile maus, monthly average users on the platform the china retail marketplace were 450 million as of the september quarter. that was up 23 million over june. that's an awful lot of people using their phone once a month or at least to access -- >> they were smart about it.
they and yelp. did you see the incredible yelp uptick on the app? users strong apps -- approximately 70% come from app, baba app, yelp app, facebook app, you get people to adopt your app, gold mine. >> as you see the stock is up. it's not up dramatically. there is some concern speaking to one alibaba investor this morning about when they talk about investments, are they also talking about margins starting to contract. joe tsai spoke broadly on the call about investing for the long run, how they focus on initiatives with long gestation periods. and in their experience that investment cycle for incubating businesses that become massive value drivers can take seven to ten years. developed organically in house. of course ali pays separate from
the company at this point. but there is at least investors wondering are they going to make a large investment that takes away from margins. >> this is a family show. you can't use a certain word that you just used. you can't use the word investment. >> oh, i can't. >> that's a curse word. kevin plank used the word investment and he sent his own stock down, under armour, at 10%. may i just tell you when you use the word investment that is basically saying i don't care about your money. i'm taking it from you. so let's be a little more suspect, little more circumspect with using the word investment. that's going to put that at the eighth word. how many did carl have? >> seven. >> this is the eighth word of investment, don't you dare say that word without saying math -- >> okay. >> that is just the end of a stock in this environment. that says margins are coming down, a lot of competition, not enough demand, we're really getting crushed. that's to me the four horsemen
of the apocalypse. >> you wonder why we complain there's no private investment. that all of this gdp growth whatever we're getting is the consumer. >> you know who had no investment? domino's pizza. that was the quarter. they spent less, got more. >> they made the investment previously. >> more taste, less filling. they made the investment previously. domino's now -- pizza hut admitted they were behind, but they get the money back through the franchises. i think this is important to note. >> it is. and you're being -- clearly you're being sarcastic. i hope people understand that. in that companies are pressured not to make investments, which of course are in their best interest for maintaining their long-term health. >> dxcm, if you hit that one up -- >> is that de -- >> they used the curse word.
they cursed. >> what do we make of allergan's decision to return capital, not invest necessarily. of course they're making investments. allergan if you missed it this morning the numbers themselves were not particularly strong. but they are now instituting a dividend in 2017 of $2.80 a share. that implies a dividend of let's call it yield of about 1.3% or so. >> yeah, big buyback. >> they're also buying back 10 billion in an accelerated share repurchase. they've already bought 21 million shares back. that's about $5 billion. but their guidance, jim, was not particularly good. >> no because nomenda, that's not core, but nomenda numbers were not good. analysts wanted them to pull through forward some growth. they would not do that. margins are a concern, all right. i think brent saunders is being conservative but it doesn't matter. this is the drug that was a controversy about whether to upgrade -- a lot of people feel
it's a good drug used for memory, for alzheimer's. >> okay. >> but the numbers were disappointing. and that franchise looks like it is under attack. and that's why the stock, i think more importantly is down because you need to see everything go higher with allergan because you need to see everything go higher with every drug company. but that is disappointment. it's like one of these things like we don't need no dividend, kimosabi, i want growth. if i want dividend, i'll go to pfizer. so i think his share base doesn't really want this. >> no, separately he has initiated this investment acquisition cycle where they seem to be taking a lot of shots of smaller nature as opposed to going for one big one. >> yes. >> i know a number of people believe that is the right approach because all you need is one home run. >> yes. now, he's going after -- he's doing irritable bowel, opt moll
ji, who's he going after? valeant. so the analysts want him to start hyping those. he's not hyping that. but he's got this legacy business for nomenda and i think that's hurting him. my travel trust, i like allergan, i think he's being ham strung -- by the way botox was 14%. that's fine. re restasis, that's fine. that's not the issue. it's this namenda and now people are saying wait a second is he giving a dividend because he's masking, lacking in growth. that's another, paying dividends, investing, these have come -- facebook doesn't pay dividends. they don't have to. >> no. they don't need no stinking dividends. >> anything below 195 on allergan is going to take you back to 2014 easily. so we're watch thag. >> my god, is that the level?
what the heck is happening here. >> square we haven't done. nine cent loss was narrower than expected. revenue ahead. they raised their guide as we mentioned. online lending getting some chatter up 70%. they've now extended $1 billion in loans. >> i have gone over and over and they've convinced me that -- they've convinced me that their online lending is not as risky because they have a call on your cash register. they have a call on your cash. they actually see your receipts. and a member on their board from goldman. >> the former cfo. >> who is perhaps the most conservative of people i have been, you know, great cfo after goldman. >> has jack convinced you after -- >> no, not that jack. this is the other people. >> no, but has dorsey convinced you he can do two things at once given their quarters? >> you mean like chew gum and walk? >> sort of. tweet and lend.
>> no comment. i know a guy who often does no comment, right? >> you don't usually no comment. >> i no comment all the time. i no commented i think in 2008 -- >> i think there was a brief moment about ten years ago. that's true. well, now we have another. >> yeah, that was twice in a decade. that's frequent. >> that's a lot. that's a lot. guys, real quickly there is an ipo at the nasdaq, gds, it's data centers in china. high performance data centers in china. just interesting i mention i think it priced about $10. spent $200 million. keep an eye on it this morning curious it suffered because of zto last week so the pricing came down on this gds. >> yeah. that was, that zto, they were really noisy. you know what that was when they were noisy? that's full of sound and fury signifying nothing, shakespeare. you have to replace -- put the s
on for savings. zts, not zto, right? >> yes. >> i'm doing everything i can here. >> you shakespeared seamlessly. >> how is bard doing? it's holding up pretty well. >> let's get to bob pisani and see what's moving on the floor. dow's down 40. >> mixed market, carl. asia and europe weaker, i want to concentrate on the u.s. here though. we've got a problem with oil, i know everybody's obsessed with the election and the fed, down, banks also a bit weak here, mixed market elsewhere, but a lot of discussion about oil impacting the market here. remember what we've got here we had to build inventory overnight. we'll see what the numbers are this morning. russia production has been strong. there's overproduction elsewhere, libya, nigeria also reports of them overproducing, so we got a lot of oil in the world right now. take a look at oil stocks. it's been a rough five or six trading sessions for these, but
hess, marathon, murphy, everything is down 1% to 2%. keep an eye out in oil. a lot of earnings today. i want to concentrate on kate spade because discussions about what's going on with retail, the stocks have been terrible performers recently. they did have decent numbers beat by a nickel. they reaffirmed their full year revenue and eps guidance. here's the comment from the ceo that's interesting though, in the third quarter several macro economic factors including a challenging retail environment continuing towards headwinds impacted our results. that's from craig leavitt, the ceo over there. you might think it's hard to belie believe, but stifel said relatively weak october sales due to warm weather and distractions from the election. maybe people aren't going out as much because they're watching the election news. look at retail this quarter, a very tough time. kate spade down 6% now. abercrombie down 8%. this is for the quarter beginning october.
penney, dillards, let me move on to the ipos. you heard david talking about gds and he's right, this is second disappointment. price talk 12 to 14, high performance data centers, this is a pure tech play on china. so last week was a consumer play and a little bit on e-commerce with zto, this one is a pure tech play. and even that didn't quite make it here. we're waiting for it to open over at the nasdaq. remember what happened with zto, that's the packaging company last week, they priced aggressively at 19.50, zto opened at $18.40. essentially is trading right around $16 right now. so that's a clear disappointment. so two chinese ipos, two different areas of the market, you're going to hear a lot of people talking about what's going on in china, how desirable it is at this point and what's going on with the economy overall out there. finally, remember the fed today, they have been moving the markets, higher rates have definitely been playing with stocks for the last several
weeks here. here's the key statement, the one that everybody wants to see whether they're going to expound upon. the committee judges that the case for increase in fed funds rate has strengthened but decided to wait for further evidence of continued progress towards its objectives. so we're expecting to hear the usual lines, economy's improving, labor markets slack -- narrowing. i think we'll be very interested to see whether there's still three dissents out there. nobody's expecting them to do anything but building the case for more rate hikes or another rate hike in the month of december. that will be up 2:00 this afternoon. right now dow down 31 points. back to you. >> thanks for that, bob pisani. and speaking of the fed let's check in with rick santelli at the bond pits in chicago. busy day, rick. >> absolutely. trust me, down here very few are speaking of the fed. i think robert heller yesterday said it best when we were on together, said why do they even have a meeting a week before an election? i think it's a great question. i don't know the sub text to
that will be because they're a bureaucracy, i don't know, you have to judge for yourself. let's look at some one-week charts, shall we? one-week of ten-year rates, top of the range easing back down. once again maybe the 1.70s or the high 1.70s, low 1.80s, that seems to be the new home base the way the low 1.50s were for the entire month of august. bunds very similar pattern. you could even say a little more aggressive. they haven't really come downright to the bottom of the range, but we're splitting basis points there. gilts, you know, hovering still above 1.22, easing back. italian as well. you know, they have issues regarding their vote coming up on december 4th. so we want to monitor this, spain, greece, brexit all of it because in many ways it's the same threat what we'll be looking at next tuesday. finally the dollar index. i tell you what, if you're a technician, it doesn't get any prettier than this chart. you know, so friday for the weekly close we closed under 98.63 where we settled in 2015. this week on halloween we go
right up, right up to that level and test it and backed away, so we continue to move lower. so you know where you're offsides in trader jargon, that would be pivot you're supposed to pay attention to. carl, back to you. >> rick, we'll see you soon. rick santelli in chicago. one team's jinx is going to end tonight when the cubs and the indians play game seven of the world series. tonight. yep. in cleveland. but there's already been a big winner. we'll explain that in a few moments. dow's down 21. i'm only in my 60's. i've got a nice long life ahead. big plans. so when i found out medicare doesn't pay all my medical expenses, i looked at my options. then i got a medicare supplement insurance plan. [ male announcer ] if you're eligible for medicare, you may know it only covers about 80%
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it will be do or die tonight for both teams in the 2016 world series after the cubs tied up the series at three games a piece with last night's 9-3 victory over the indians in cleveland. baseball has been on a winning front on the ratings front 23.5 million viewers for game five. that's 5 million more than the overtime dallas-philly sunday night football by 32% win for baseball. >> i saw that. major market gain, football.
we actually had a pool on who was going to do -- we were shocked because i thought baseball had been on the decline. no, and these teams, america loves underdogs. and you got two underdogs. >> yep. here's a shot of progressive stadium there. >> game seven. a game seven is awesome, right? there's nothing like a game seven world series. >> this has been great for fox. >> rooting for key. >> who? >> cleveland bank. i'm rooting for eaton and key, those are my players. >> well, okay. >> well, you want to root for boeing and -- >> i'm rooting for the cubs. sorry, cleveland. >> these are about companies. has nothing to do -- >> all right. well, i'm rooting for the cubs. i'm going to watch. >> fly the "w," jim. >> you have to stay focused. talking about cleveland great american bank. >> all i think of is lebron
james when i think of cleveland. >> when you think of philadelphia what team do you think of? >> what team do i think of? flyers. >> comcast. >> we'll get stop trading with jim in a minute. dow's down some 12 points. don't go away. [burke] at farmers, we've seen almost everything, so we know how to cover almost anything. even a rodent ride-along. [dad] alright, buddy, don't forget anything! [kid] i won't, dad... [captain rod] happy tuesday morning! captain rod here. it's pretty hairy out on the interstate.traffic is literally crawling, but there is some movement
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♪ time for cramer and stop trading. >> i want to talk about hacked e-mails, cramer style. colin powell's hack, e-mail had an interesting piece about in that list was tableau data, there's no interest whatsoever to buy tableau data, further i will tell you that was one of the worst quarters of the year given the fact the company initially -- this is something you usually don't hear, a guy actually admitted it was disappointing. we had a great quarter, fabulous quarter and wait until the end the guidance, well, in light of the quarter, which was soft, no. right up front disappointing quarter and didn't land a lot of big business. talk about extended sales cycle,
means we haven't closed anything. so it was no close quarter and tableau data not going to get bought by salesforce. there's my hacked e-mail for the election. >> okay. no readthrough for anything else from tableau? >> readthrough better get a new salesforce. whoa. that was not a good quarter. second time remember they screwed up in february. now linkedin screwed up that same day and got a bid for microsoft. i don't see a savior for the bid. tableau, please fix your website when you go to your ad about a company that involves recipes. the player isn't working. it's kind of hard. >> what's on mad tonight? >> okay. we have a company that actually said that macro concerns were bothersome. clorox. benno dorer is a great executive. stock is down, and i find it
similar what people say macro concerns when it comes to clorox, but this has been a continual theme. these stocks the consumer staples have had macro issues. there are a lot of other things clorox does, i think the world's going to use ultimate floor, that's what i use, actually dupont makes a lot of this stuff. do you know what ultimate floor is? >> no. ultimate floor? >> you got to spend a day with me get up at 3:45. >> are we going shopping or help you clean? >> there therebywill be a three- >> last night was my wife's birthday, brought home kentucky fried chicken, everybody was happy. >> definitely going to kfc after all this. >> something with bleach apparently. >> more on the election as it continues to impact the markets and we'll continue to talk to spencer rascoff on the heels of sill zill zillow's earnings.
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i'm carl quintanilla with sara eisen, david faber at the new york stock exchange. a lot to get to today. we've got a fed statement coming out in just a few hours. a lot of earnings to get to as well. some m&as on the docket, we're watching oil and keeping an eye on a lot of these election polls. right now the dow is down 15. our road map for the hour begins with a final countdown. just six days to go until the election, a new poll has the candidates neck and neck. plus the fed wrapping up that meeting statement at 2:00 p.m. eastern time what clues will be given for a rate hike. we'll be joined by former fed governor. and e-commerce giant alibaba rising beating on both top and bottom lines. we dig through those numbers straight ahead. less than one week to go until election day and new poll shows the candidates in a dead heat. our eamon javers joins us this morning with the latest on that. hey, eamon. >> good morning, carl. you do get the feeling that this race is tightening in the last final days here ahead of november's election next week. take a look at this "the washington post"/abc poll out today and you get a sense of where they have it anyway.
hillary clinton at 46, donald trump at 46. that's a dead heat. that poll was conducted between october 28 and 31st. gary johnson at the bottom at 3%, jill stein at just 2%. and then take a look at the battleground map of the country and you see a picture where analysts expect as of right now that hillary clinton has enough -- is on her way to having enough electoral college votes to win. 270 needed to win. this is the real clear politics map. they've got hillary clinton at 246. trump at just 164 and 128 in the toss-up category. nbc news battleground map has hillary clinton at 274 electoral college votes, trump at 180, but that's up from 157 in mid october. so the spread here is narrowing. the race is tightening. the question is whether the overall trend line that we've seen for the past several weeks and months will hold or whether we will see something different here.
there you see hillary clinton's electoral college votes needed to win in battleground states as nbc news has it this is 274 for hillary clinton, 180 for donald trump, toss-up 84. so, guys, a tightening picture as we go into the election with less than a week out. >> eamon, thank you for that. joining us at post nine, former white house aide keith boykin and cnbc contributor larry kudlow. good to have you back together again. >> good morning. >> so that news has gone your way, larry, as well as some of these aca premiums, i assume. are you feeling better about trump's chances? >> i am, i am. a lot because by the way besides all this other stuff, he's been on message for six, seven, eight days which is the eighth wonder of the world. he's actually stayed on message. you're not supposed to laugh at that. but he's talking about draining the swamp in washington, getting the corruption out. he's really assaulting
obamacare, which i think is an extremely unpopular issue. he's even talking about tax cuts and economic growth and taking regulatory shackles off of business. a very powerful message. as my pal wrote in "the wall street journal" this morning, the business about hillary and huma and her crazy husband and the possibility of a re-do on the entire investigation all of a sudden makes her the unsafe candidate. people thought she would be okay. she would have certainty. she knows how to handle government. that has all changed. and what you got here -- i'll quit in a minute, you got democrats out there, hillary out there, let's see, they're attacking comey, who's not really on the ballot. >> right. >> they're attacking vladimir putin, who's not on the ballot. i heard my great friend james carville attacking kgb, who's not on the ballot.
so which is a better message, okay? which is a better message going into the final days? >> are these attacks bringing out alicia machado the answer, keith? >> i don't know if it's the answer. it certainly helps to encourage women voters to remind them who donald trump is. i think larry's engaging a bit of wishful thinking here about the campaign. i mean, hillary clinton has a lead right now that's bigger than barack obama's lead over mitt romney at this point in 2012. she's in a good position. she's leading in almost all the polls. and i think if you look at the electoral college map she has the advantage. the structural advantage. i mean, obama won 332 electoral votes in his last election. hillary clinton could lose florida, could lose ohio, could lose virginia, all those states combine still win it. i think she's doing well in states where she wasn't expected to do well like north carolina, state states, she's challenging in arizona, although i agree the obamacare issue will have an impact in arizona probably.
but she's actually competitive in georgia. and utah is a competitive state. so the race is much more fluid than we expect it to be maybe a week or so ago. but the fundamental dynamics have not changed. >> this times piece this morning that african-americans are now turning out in early vote because there's the lack of enthusiasm the way there was for obama in '08 and '12, do you buy that? >> i mean, that's to be expected. we had a historic figure on the ballot for the last two elections, barack obama -- >> hey, i don't know, historic figure. cover of usa today women define the 2016 election. this is a historic figure as well. >> but that's exactly the point. the african-american vote may not be as enthusiastic for hillary clinton as it was for barack obama, but they are, i think, more enthusiastic against donald trump than they were against mitt romney or john mccain. and the womens vote is actually more influential in this election because women are the
majority of the population. women are decisively in favor of hillary clinton. so the alicia michado decision makes sense. and 2,500 people early voted. a lot of those votes came in before the fbi story, before any of the trump on message in the past six or seven days. in terms of -- the last thing larry said about uncertainty, market uncertainty and all tharks the idea you can have a candidate for president who might be president of the united states and we consider it the eighth wonder of the world he can stay on message for eight days -- or six or seven days, that's -- i don't know the word. it's astonishing. >> you have to understand, this has been heavy lifting. i will say this, i want to come back to the other issue of hillary is now the unsafe candidate. because you're running in to literally constitutional issues, potentially constitutional issues. remember, this investigation is
going to go on for awhile. she could win. she could be inaugurated. and the investigation is tistil going to go on in those circumstances she will not be able to go across the aisle to make deals, she will have to be held hostage by the far left wing of her party. and frankly we've never seen anything like that. does she pardon herself? does obama pardon her? all this stuff is damaging her. you're right about the structural advantage. she has a much better ground game than donald trump. i completely agree. on the other hand, his polling momentum show -- i mean the guy was down 11 points, eight, nine days ago. he's now running basically even. now, those national polls will trickle down into the state battleground polls. so we don't know that. it's a bit of an inside street, but it's doable. we're going to be on election night here states like colorado, for example. could trump win that? i don't know. it's up in the air. arizona, i'm giving trump north
carolina. >> really? >> i'm giving him florida, giving him ohio. >> still not enough for him to win the election. >> i'm not giving him michigan, i'm not giving him pennsylvania. i'm not giving him wisconsin. >> and he needs one of those states if he's going to win. can i respond to larry's constitutional crisis issue? >> sure. >> he's got to win a cluster. >> i'll get back to that. constitutional crisis, two points, in 2007 we had constitutional crisis because george bush won the electoral vote but lost the popular vote. he was still able to come in and rule the country with some sort of mandate. i don't think that will be an issue for hillary clinton. the second part about this issue is donald trump is facing 75 civil lawsuits, pending lawsuits against him right now. including a child rape trial, including a civil fraud trial from trump university. that is unprecedenunprecedented. we've never had a president of the united states with 75 pieces of litigation against him on the
day he's elected. that could provoke a constitutional crisis. >> new york cio, it can't. i appreciate the talking points. >> is that not true, larry? >> no, i don't think there are 75. >> oh, 74, 73, more than 70. >> keith, this is a criminal investigation. they will undoubtedly impanel a grand jury, which always sits, just has to be directed. >> who said anything about a grand jury? they're simply looking at e-mails from somebody who's not even a staff member. >> they are going to -- >> the spouse of a staff member. >> -- re-interview all of the people. >> larry, you must have some connection with the fbi, i don't know. i've never heard anybody say this before and i've been watching this news from the -- >> -- this is coming out of the fbi. >> larry. >> the new york police department had this information two months ago. not only information about huma's and weiner's computer, they also had information about the clinton foundation.
and the clinton foundation may yet become yet another legal issue where they're going to have to call witnesses. they're going to have to remove immunity. i don't want to get hung up in this. i'm not an attorney. >> you raised an issue, a provocative issue and say i don't want to get hung up on it. you just threw out a fireball out there about the clinton foundation, meanwhile the trump foundation is actually violated the law, they've been required to cease and desist fund raising here in new york state by the attorney general. and they violated the federal law -- tax law, they had to pay a penalty to the irs -- >> it was not violated. >> -- paying the attorney general in florida -- >> oh, for heaven sakes. >> why is the foundation paying -- why is the foundation making a political contribution -- >> go ahead, larry. >> both of you are talking investigations, probes, it's no longer about tax policy --
>> it's not. >> that you have to write. >> hang on a second -- >> i want to ask about trade. we're not going to have time. >> this is my opening gambit. as i said, we've got eight or nine solid days of issues from mr. trump. this is important. i think draining the swamp of corruption in washington is a huge issue. and i think hillary is falling into that issue. he's also talking about obamacare, which is probably the most unpopular thing in the world. he's also talking about tax cuts and growth, okay. he's getting that out. he's gaining on this. now, i agree, sara, you're going to beat me up. i tweeted, i don't agree with mr. trump on trade. and i tweeted i agree with the chairman of the harvard economics department, former chairman of the council of economic advisors. i don't think the trump camp gets trade. i don't think they understand trade deficits are not the end and be all because they forgot about capital inflows, okay. the last guy to have a trade
surplus was papa bush, that was in the middle of a recession. i don't want that. if i buy from you, if i buy from you, i get your whatever, t-shirt, you get my cash, right? >> sure. >> what are you going to do with that cash? >> recirculate it. >> pay down debt. >> recirculate it. capital inflows are the flipside of trade deficits. peter navaro, a good friend of mine, doesn't get that -- >> i thought your tweet is very noteworthy. >> that's the most important part of his economic policy though and you disagree with the most fundamental part of donald trump's philosophy. >> no, most fundamental part is tax cuts -- >> how often does he talk about trade? he talks about trade far more often than he talks about trade. >> this is good. this is all good, but you guys are going to get another chance in the next five days. keith boykin, larry kudlow, thanks so much. >> thank you. civil. >> special election coverage
tuesday night november 8th starting at 7:00 p.m. eastern time. >> could be a long night, for all of you. when we come back we're going to continue our election coverage. former office depot ceo and the ceo of the committee for economic development steve odland will be joining us to talk about which candidate will be best for business, the economy and more. and it's fed day. the fed wrapping up its two-day meeting. we'll hear from former fed governor mark olson. much more ahead on "squawk on the street." the dow is down about six points. stay with us. pursuit of healthi. it begins from the second we're born. because, healthier doesn't happen all by itself. it needs to be earned every day. using wellness to keep away illness. and believing a single life can be made better by millions of others. as a health services and innovation company optum powers modern healthcare by connecting every part of it. so while the world keeps searching for healthier we're here to make healthier happen.
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welcome back to "squawk on the street." the fed's two-day meeting wraps up today with a policy statement due at 2:00 p.m. eastern time. fed chair janet yellen not scheduled to give a news conference this month. joining us to discuss though what clues could be in that statement, pimco's strategic advisor and our very own steve liesman in washington. richard, do you expect the explicit guidance that the fed gave us exactly this time last year before they hiked in december saying they were considering doing it at, quote, the next meeting? >> that's a great question because obviously they've done that before. and certainly i and probably steve will be looking for that. that would be a very, very blunt hint that they're ready to go in december. conversely, if they leave that out it shows that they're less certain than they were a year ago about a hike. so either way it will be interesting to see how the statement reads. >> steve, how certain are they
about hiking in december at this point? >> i think they're pretty certain now. i mean there's still a couple jobs reports to come before that meeting they have. as to the language, you know, rich, i was looking at it this morning and i'm thinking, you know what, maybe they don't have to change a thing. they won't be exactly honest. when they say that they're waiting for more evidence, i don't think they're waiting for more evidence, i think they're waiting for the election to be over. but i don't think they'll say that in their statement. i think they're going to say it's continued to strengthen and waiting for more evidence. they may change it, but i'm not sure they need to. >> what should the fed do to avoid -- it's already been dragged into the election in politics. donald trump has already personally gone after janet yellen for keeping interest rates low. but what kind of language do they need to avoid today to see they are waiting for the election outcome? >> i think as usual steve hits the nail on the head. they don't want to admit it, but i think the timing of this meeting for them essentially
takes this meeting off the table. and i think as a result there will be a bias to keep the language pretty close to september just to show this is course and ignoring the election. the risk of changing the language a lot -- >> hey, rich? >> yeah. >> i think one thing that could happen is the dissenters could throw their colleagues a bone. if they did not dissent today, it would mean they agree with the case essentially that this was not the time to hike. so watch esther george and mester, do they dissent or withdraw their dissent temporarily. and that might be a change for slightly stronger language for a hike in december. >> it's a good point, rich. last time around it was a 7-3 vote in favor of holding rates unsteady, unchanged. >> yeah. and we've certainly seen before people dissent and in a later
meeting not dissent. but i guess going into this i expect the dissents to continue. be sort of awkward to dissent for a rate hike in september, sit on the sidelines in november and vote for the rate hike at the next meeting. i think it's tricky either way. i expect the dissents to continue. >> investors are trying to figure out as the trump odds do rise today what it means for the markets and the economy. clearly we've seen the impact on the mexican peso. what is pimco telling clients as far as the risk right now? >> basically what we're saying is obviously there's a lot of uncertainty right now. and we're essentially going to wait until after the election. we don't think it makes sense to go chasing opportunities, you know, based upon the latest poll or fbi tweet. so for the most part we recognize it's an uncertain time. we're positioned, we think, appropriately. but we're not chasing anything right now. >> did the move on the ten-year to 1.87 usher in a new window? or is all of this now because we're so close to the election more noise than anything? >> well, we have had an increase in rates.
and we don't think that's unexpected because, you know, the fed will likely be hiking later this year. a lot of the decline in rates earlier this year were due to external developments, concerns about china, concerns about declining oil prices. so a gradual normalization upward in bond yields is something that we expect. >> steve, one of the questions we've been looking into and talking to our guests about is what does the bond market do in the event of trump winning the election? are u.s. treasuries as safe, or are they the ultimate safe haven if there's a selloff in equities? what are you hearing? >> what i've seen so far is that treasuries tend to rally when the probability of donald trump winning goes up and equities go the other way on that. look, these are very -- this is very uncertain science. there was a paper written that talked about a very large double digit affect on the s&ps and also very large affect on the peso and other currencies. my best guess is that these will
be temporary effects and that things will smooth out over time. in fact, if you look at the way the vix is priced, it's near-term more expensive than later term. what they're looking for is they're sort of anticipating some kind of panic on the front end and then things to stabilize over time after that. >> we have though seen a move in the dollar, rich, against some of the major currencies lower. it is not being bought as a safe haven as the odds of trump go up. >> yeah. >> what does that tell you? >> i think that's right. i think that the dollar calculus is very much a function of the fact that the markets correctly perceive that this fed does not want the dollar to get too strong. they saw a year or two ago that as the dollar rallied it hurt exports, lower expectations that's why i think we're only going to get one hike this year. so the dollar call in part is a call on a very gradual liftoff for the fed, sara. you know the blue dots in september ratcheted down again. even though they're hiking, it's a very gradual liftoff the dollar is a big reason. >> the question now is how many next year.
that's going to determine december's baked in 75% odds. where are you on that at? >> well, the fed has indicated that at least via the dots for all their imperfections that certainly given their view for the economy two hikes they think would be appropriate. and that sounds reasonable to us as well. again, the economy itself probably could adjust, but when you have the impact on the dollar and on other parts of the global economy, that does limit the fed's liftoff. >> sure. >> i just say on that, sara, watch the unemployment rate. if we continue to produce jobs in the 150,000 range and the unemployment rate does not go down, i think that's going to limit the amount of tightening the federal reserve thinks the economy needs. they seem very interested in this idea of running a high pressure economy, very interested in the amount of slack, see if they can draw some of that slack back into the labor market. >> we'll get those job numbers on friday. and the fed before that. richard clarida, good to see you. thanks. steve, thanks as well. we'll see you a lot this
afternoon. you can watch all the fomc coverage right here on cnbc. as we go to break, take a look at shares of yelp surging more than 12% as it reports a surprise profit for the quarter. we'll get more on today's earnings including alibaba, gold by the way just cracked 1,300. we're back after a break. important than your health. or the freedom to choose what doctor you want to see. so if you have medicare parts a and b, consider an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company.
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take a look at shares of alibaba. interestingly they had been up as much as 2.5% in the early going after the chinese e-commerce giant reported better than expected numbers. now as you see and perhaps because the broader market is also down more than it was earlier only putting up a slight gain at this point. interestingly shares of yahoo are actually up more than alibaba. remember yahoo continues to own that 15% stake in alibaba and does usually mirror its moves. as for the quarter itself it looked to be a pretty good one. adjusted ebitda margin was 62%. china retail marketplace revenue was up 40% year over year. its overall revenues because that includes cloud computing for example which is a fast growing business for the company up 55% year over year. mobile continues to be the key platform. mobile average users 450 million
of them -- monthly average users, excuse me, on mobile, in september of '16. that was up about 30% year over year. transaction prices also increasing, so margin, monetization, all positive. alibaba stock price, well, it's hanging in there as we said, guys, but not a particularly strong response to what some argue is a strong report. there does continue to be i hate to say concern but at least some questions about how much investment they're going to keep making and whether their investments over time will pressure margins. >> that 40% number on e-commerce, that stands out in a time when we're all wondering what the chinese consumer is doing. it reminds me of when i talked to david taylor at p&g. he brought up alibaba a number of times in terms of focusing ad spending. when i asked about the chinese consumer, he said they're all moving online. you're still seeing the 10%, 20%, 30% growth, it's just not being tracked in terms of stores consumer products. this seems to jive exactly with
that. >> it is interesting. of course so much of that is mobile. when you think about this is by far the largest platform and 450 million people are using it at least once a month to do business. all right. when we return, which candidate will be best for business? we'll talk to two ceos and get their take. much more ahead on "squawk on the street." the s&p 500 down about 0.25%. we'll be right back. it's your tv, take it with you. with directv and at&t, watch all your live channels, on your devices, data-free. switch to directv and lock in your price for 2 years. offers starting at $50/month. anything worth pursuing hard work and a plan. at baird, we approach your wealth management strategy the same way to create a financial plan built to last
that's 10 times faster than slow internet from the phone company. say hello to internet speeds up to 150 mbps. and add phone and tv for only $34.90 more a month. call today. comcast business. built for business. good morning everybody. i'm sue herera. here is your cnbc news update this hour. two iowa police officers were shot to death early this morning in separate ambush-style attacks while they were sitting in their patrol cars. police say that they have identified 46-year-old scott michael greene as a suspect in the killings, describing him as armed and dangerous. in indonesia, police say at least 20 people were killed when a speedboat carrying indonesian workers home from malaysia capsized in stormy weather.
39 people were rescued. leaders of u.s. and israeli liberal groups rallying for equal prayer rights scuffled with a dozen orthodox jewish protesters at a key jewish holy site in jerusalem. they wanted israel to implement a government decision to officially establish a mixed-gender prayer area at the western wall. and there will be a game seven in cleveland tonight. the cubs keeping their championship hopes alive by beating the cleveland indians 9-3 last night. cubs shortstop addison russell hitting the first grand slam in the world series in 11 years. we will see. we'll know tomorrow. that's the news update this hour. let's send it to jackie deangelis with the eia inventory report. >> good morning, sue. all traders keeping an eye on this report. it was a massive build in crude oil inventories, even more than we saw from the api last night. the department of energy reporting a 14.4 million barrel build in crude. and a 2.2 million barrel
gasoline draw. so usually sometimes those offset each other. in this case that build's so severe sending us to a new session low of 45.01. obviously a lot of support at that $45 level, so it's very critical. but we were trading $45.80 before that. so you could see the big impact that this number had. there is a bullish factor out there, that's demand right now. demand is about 3% higher than it was last year. implied demand that is. at the same time the bearish factors continue to be the struggle that we're having with the stronger dollar and also the fact that opec countries again appear to not agreeing on this output freeze that they discussed in algiers and told the market about. so that's something that could take us lower. now, what you need to dig into in this report is the import number. a lot of traders are watching that closely. those numbers have been low. if they're higher, that's contributing probably to the build that we saw. and that's different than if we're seeing u.s. production actually increase. so something to keep in mind. but again, 14.4 million barrels
really a massive build when it comes down to it. even for this time of year. back to you at post nine. jacqkjackie, thanks so much. jackie deangelis. improved odds for a potential trump presidency, it's worth asking the question just what would a trump in the white house mean for business? and does his rhetoric give any indication about how he would govern? mark cuban weighed in on that issue yesterday on "squawk alley." take a listen. >> i was very supportive of the fact that he was candid, open, you know, said what was on his mind, unscripted. but that's not who he is anymore. you know, he's 100% scripted. he's not so much candid anymore particularly when it comes to issues. the things he originally talked about even though i disagreed with him vehemently, immigrants and the wall and all that nonsense, he barely even talks about it anymore. >> joining us this morning former office depot ceo current head of the committee for economic development steve odland joins us. steve, good to have you back. >> good morning, carl. >> cuban's point is that the
market is not equipped to discount whatever trump says. do you think that's true? >> well, look, i think trump is a different animal. you know, people keep talking about him as a businessman, but he's a certain flavor. he's a commercial real estate developer. and as a former retail ceo, i understand these developers. they all sound the same way. so, you know, he's not a diplomat. he's not a government official. he doesn't come at things in, you know, a nice way. he comes at things with a deal in mind. and his deal entry point is always very far to one side. and it sounds crazy. whenever people say, well, it's crazy, or it's nuts or irrational, it means they don't understand the basis of operations. he comes at things from that perspective. but he always makes a deal. and i think this is what people are underestimating. he always gets to a deal. so when he talks about building a wall and they're going to pay for it, that's an opening entry in a negotiation. when he says canada's going to pay for a pipeline, when he says
we're going to renegotiate all the deals, we're going to get better deals, all of these things are startding points in his mind. now, that's an unorthodox way of approaching government work or diplomatic work, but it is his way, it's what he knows and it's how he's been successful in business. >> well, what's unusual is that those opening bids are so public, right? so i assume you're saying the market should be getting ready for more dislocations because they're going to be hearing it outloud. >> well, i think the market is betting on a hillary clinton win. nate silver 538 still says 71% probability. and the markets kind of show that. but the volatility is increasing. look at what the vix has been doing. the markets will react more positively because wall street is more favorable to a clinton presidency. it's more of the same. it's an evolution of the obama administration. it's more certainty. trump however gives you a greater range of possibilities, both on the upside and the downside. and a lot of people are saying, well, that would be better because on the upside, you know,
we would then have potentially higher growth when he cuts taxes and relinquishes regulations, cuts back on aca and all the things that are bothering main street business people. so i think wall street is pro-clinton, main street is pro-trump because they're trying to get out from under the weight of these government regulations. >> would you suggest that small business is part of that main street that is supporting trump while the bigger fortune 500 companies that do business abroad and are scared of trump's tough talk on trade are not? >> yeah. i think that's right. but this is where you have to come back and you have to say, you know, let's interpret this. and i think, you know, trump has scared everybody outside of the united states for sure because they've never seen anything like this. but if you put everything in the context of a commercial real estate deal, which is how trump thinks, it all becomes normal. and it all becomes logical. and you start saying, okay, it is really an opening bid. there will be a deal. he's not going to blow up the world. he's not going to blow up trade. he understands that. but he's not going to give away
all his negotiation tactics. read the book. it's all written in the book. i'm not endorsing it. i'm just saying it's an unorthodox way and a lot of people are stoked by the anger, stoked by the opportunity and the possibility of doing it differently because they think that washington has failed them so far. >> you know, steve, negotiating like that may work in the real estate industry, but there are certain protocols in relationships between nations and in geopolitics. and, you know, people are not accustom to somebody negotiating over nato or nuclear weapons. that would seem to me interjects a level of uncertainty that's unprecedented. >> it does. you're exactly right. he is not a diplomat. he's not following normal rules, which is why virtually every business person outside of the united states is looking vote for hillary clinton because they want somebody who they understand and is working in a normal fashion. trump just doesn't do that. so i'm not saying it's right.
i'm just saying you have to understand where he's coming from on this. and so they don't understand it at all. they've never seen anything like him. well, a lot of us haven't seen anything like him either. but this is who he is and how he comes at things. but it sounds less scary and more rational, is my only point. when you start thinking about how he's done it. now, again, a bigger range of volatility in that because, you know, there are upsides and down sides. on a static basis it would produce more debt and deficits. but on a dynamic basis it's possible you could get much higher growth and we could grow our way out of it. but i think most business people are focused on the corporate tax rates, focused on regulation, and they're focused on the debt. and these are the things that we got to get through. >> when you were ceo and you were looking to make a bid on something, would you have found his method of negotiating in public effective? >> no. and, you know, we in the retail industry have to negotiate all the time with commercial real estate developers. they're bombastic, they're
emotional, they come at things in a way that frankly sounds crazy. and i think this is, you know, what trump is all about. but remember, they have something, they buy something, they develop it, they move it somehow, they improve it somehow, they sell. so their entire profit is made on the delta between the buy and the sell. so buy low, sell high. and they've got to have a lot of drama in between in order to deal with the psychological aspects of trading in that regard. he's approaching geopolitics in the same way. is it right? well, it's unconventional. it doesn't seem like the best way to do it. it's not the way anybody else has ever done it. but supporters say maybe it will end up being a better deal for the u.s., maybe gets us off of the 1% to 2% growth. i think that's why they're willing to make the bet. >> you never know if you don't try seems to be the mindset among many, many people. steve, good to have you. we'll be talking again. thanks. >> thank you. >> steve odland. make sure to catch our special election night coverage tuesday
november 8th starting at 7:00 p.m. eastern time. that's right here on cnbc. as we take you to break, take a look at shares of the network equipment maker brocade. it is being purchased by chipmaker broadcom, the deal worth about $5.5 billion including debt. you can see shares of brocade, which had been up already on potential news of the deal or news of the potential deal, up yet again. and the fed wrapping its two-day policy meeting. former fed governor mark olson will join us after this break. american express open cards can help you take on a new job, or fill a big order or expand your office and take on whatever comes next. find out how american express cards and services can help prepare you for growth at open.com.
what's critical thinking like? a basketball costs $14. what's team spirit worth? (cheers) what's it worth to talk to your mom? what's the value of a walk in the woods? the value of capital is to create, not just wealth, but things that matter. morgan stanley welcome back to "squawk on the street." markets are lower ahead of today's key fed rate announcement. that's also weighing on utility stocks overall. the sector is underperforming by relatively decent margin at this point. all components in the index are
negative, nrg energy, sempra energy, aes lagging the most. this will be a key sector to watch with the fed in focus this afternoon. back over to you, sara. >> and oil prices falling especially hard after that inventory release. dom, thank you. on that fed note send it to rick santelli in chicago with the "santelli exchange". >> hi, sara. thank you, mark olson. >> thank you, rick. always glad to be here. >> my first question do you have any thoughts specifically about today's fed meeting and also maybe express those in the context of the bank of japan, not anywhere near their inflation targets but seemingly out of runway. maybe that's a bit of an assumption, but your thoughts on those two issues. >> first of all, i think the meeting today will be a yawn. but i also agree with what steve
liesman said a few minutes ago. what i think is going to be particularly interesting is to see how last meeting's dissenting voters react this time. that may be a signal as to whether or not there was agreement on what they're going to do in december or no agreement. as to japan, i think japan is a completely different scenario. they have to manage their economy. they have to manage their funds rate. they have to manage their debt in a completely different way than we do in the u.s. so i don't think that will have an impact on monetary policy in this country. >> all right. but you know what, i'm going to push back just a little bit. japan's variables are completely different. you could argue that the ecb's variables are different. canada, uk, u.s., but there is a common denominator like all dissimilar fractions, the notion that the bank of japan has the muscle and they're not going to turn at atlas shrugged that
these central bankers think they know more than the markets. these are common denominators. am i wrong to think if there's not success in that overriding strategy that we're all somewhat in the same bed together? >> well, what you just announced a few minutes ago that the ten-year t is at 1.8. and what that has told u.s. investors that inflationary expectations are low. with japan because of the manner in which they manage and control the flow of their debt, you can't get the same -- you can't get the same reaction. you can't read it the same way. but much more so europe is much more like we are. canada is much more like we are. you have to put the pacific rim countries and their monetary policy i think in a different category. >> so let me get this straight, mark. if we never in the next two or three years theoretically get to the personal consumption expenditure core year over year
level of 2% or higher, which is supposedly the trigger for our fed, or the japanese never hit their figure, or the ecb and draghi don't hit their figure, you think we should stay at 25 to 50 basis points on and on and on? >> no, i do not. there's no reason at this point why the fed should not be moving back toward a more normalization. that's one thing disappointed me about some of the recent statements. i don't see the term normalization, but there's no reason not to go now. if you look at it from a different perspective, the gdp is up smartly in the third quarter, but that was after a soft first quarter -- or second quarter. but on the other hand if you look at the employment numbers, we have 3 million growth in the workforce, 3 million new jobs. and with inflation the coming core inflation coming in just
below 2, we're exactly where we should be for a rate increase. >> you know, real quick, we're almost out of time, mark. let me have one final thought here. this notion that in the end it's about normalization, i've been talking about that for years. but i'm taking it back. i don't think you can return to a normal. things have changed. things have changed. just triggering back to normal isn't going to happen. we're now in outer space with regard to policy. and it's like "star trek," you start over, it's a new frontier. these central bankers are going to have to deal with rates, markets have changed, landscapes have changed, strategies changed, banks don't do the finance -- it's all change. your final thought. >> you're exactly right. you're exactly right. so what i'm reading and what i'm hearing is that is not lost on the members of the fed board. and they're rethinking the correlation between monetary policy and the overall economy. and i think we will see fundamental change taking place. you may remember that 50 years ago we were watching the prime
rate. we didn't talk about the discount rate, or we didn't talk about fed funds. it's now reversed. we're going to see changes again. >> all right. now, since you brought it up, heck of a time. we're going long, are going lon yesterday robert heller said there will be nine reserve banks asking for a discount rate hike in his opinion. what i brought up is that sounds reasonable but how does that influence interest on reserves and the pile of cash that has the become the new commercial paper financing market through the reverse repo program? how do those coexist? >> they coexist but don't react to the same influences. interest on reserves is a number that is set by the fed. for example, the fed funds rate, the fed sets a target but can only achieve that by what it does in the market place so they function entirely differently.
>> if you raise discount rate 25 basis points that is going to effect the psychology of what people, investors, what these institutions are thinking about when they take their interest on the reserves. that is a function of the fed funds target. the interest on excess reserves that will impact supply available for lending. that is far more significant. >> since we are -- my final question is this. bob heller had a lot of press saying it is a dumb idea to have a fed meeting a week before an election. your final thought. is he right or wrong? >> i think he is dead wrong.
and i think -- should not adjust that for an election year. >> everybody has an opinion. we appreciate hearing yours. back to you. >> we appreciate it. rick santelli. as we head to break take a look at where we are on stocks. the s&p 500 declining by about 0.3%. energy, utilities and telecom the hardest hit. the vix moving back towards the 20 level. it is higher and mexican peso is down another percent. much more ahead. stay with us. 3w4r57
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eto. also a large chinese company. alibaba is gds's largest single customer and they had been anticipating a higher pricing that came in at $10 in part because perhaps -- on its first trapd and that is not the way it is supposed to go. this hanging in there by 2 cents. >> soft ipo. >> let's send it over to dominic chu. he has a quick market flash. >> we talked about the utilities trade. let's call attention to the ticker kbe down about 1.5%. the laggers there you have zions. just up about half a percent. the banks certainly trades to watch as we talk about the fed rate announcement later on
today. >> we will keep an eye on that group. that does it for us here on squawk on the street. squawk alley is up next. they will be speaking with the ceo of zillow talking earnings, politics and much more. stay with us. er. it begins from the second we're born. because, healthier doesn't happen all by itself. it needs to be earned every day. using wellness to keep away illness. and believing a single life can be made better by millions of others. as a health services and innovation company optum powers modern healthcare by connecting every part of it. so while the world keeps searching for healthier we're here to make healthier happen. this is my retirement. retiring retired tires. and i never get tired of it. are you entirely prepared to retire? plan your never tiring retiring retired tires retirement with e*trade. i'm in vests and as a vested investor in vests
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good morning. it is 8:00 a.m. at microsoft headquarters. 11:00 a.m. on wall street. squawk alley is live. ♪ good wednesday morning. welcome to squawk alley. along with zillow ceo who has a lot to talk about this morning. good to see you. a tight race from six days election day. the real clear politics