tv Power Lunch CNBC November 3, 2016 1:00pm-3:01pm EDT
the charity, wings over wall street, benefitting the fight against als. kevin o'leary helped that cause by auctioning off a dinner, the chance to dine with our resid t resident. it raised $34,000. you can doe anytime. that's great. good to see you. >> whoever i'm having dinner with, i'm buying the win and they're going to love what i buy. >> back to hq and "power lunch." >> i'm melissa lee. new numbers on the millennial vote. just five days to go until the election. also, more on facebook's big slide. is the digital ad market hitting a top and it's a party 108 years in the making. coming up, you'll hear from a part owner of the chicago cubs following their win. batter up. "power lunch" starts right now. welcome to "power lunch." three hours left in the trading
session. as you can see, stocks generally flat in negative territory. nasdaq worse off, off by a half a percent. show you what's going on with the oil market. we've been watching the slide in crude as we saw the build in inventories. low again today. down 82 cents. below 45 now. the vix, spike through the session. hitting its highest levels since june. >> here's what else is happening. the institute for supply management reporting that u.s. service companies grew at a slower pace in october. the bank of england announcing a unanimous vote to hold interest rates steady and make no changes to their bond buying program and google rejecting eu antitrust charges and advertising and tyler, if nobody got the reference in chicago and does know what time it has? really? >> no, but they know the score.
we're in the home stretch of this election. five days to go. ohio, a must win state. for mr. trump. certainly and a critical one for mrs. clinton as well. john harwood is somewhere in ohio. hi, john. >> hey, tyler. ohio is a key state in this election. we don't know if donald trump is going win it, but he's ahead by five percentage points. one thing we know is that he's going to win allen county, which is where we are now. mitt romney got 61% here. this is the district of jim jordan, who is the chair of the house freedom caucus. very influential group of conservatives. they were talking about their post election plans. a lot of speculation they're going to put pressure on paul ryan to leave. just as they forced john boehner to leave more than a year ago.
jim jordan u would not bite on that, but would not express support for paul ryan remaining a speaker. and on one policy issue that's going to come up after the election or could, the trans pacific partnership. he agrees with donald trump and not paul ryan. take a listen. >> we better not bring up tpp in the lame duck session after what we've been through. that should not happen. we need to do trade deals that are good for the country. certain jobs are here because we can market our goods around the world. that's important, but need to be done right. >> now, jim r jordan is aligning himself with that populous movement that donald trump has been lead, although on one issue, he disagree d with trump and agreed with ryan, which is that he agrees that entitlement program, medicare and social squurt, have to be refoermed. big debate within the republican party that's going continue after november 8th. whatever happens to donald trump
and hillary clinton. >> all right. thanks so much. jo another angle with five days to go. the key voting block of ma len y al network, they've done a survey. for the long time viewers, just let me tell them yes, your father's name is is carlos, but that's not why you're here today. >> thank you for having me. >> the results of the survey show you did 1,000. 69 p% are going to support hillary clinton and 66% said the most important topic was abortion and planned parenthood. is that what they're voting on? is that what's going to motivate them to get to the polls? >> overall, they don't feel like they're being properly kras addd
in the election, so there's a broader theme and therm being equal to baby boomers for the first time. but the issues that they care about not necessarily being address. that being said, one of the issues that was at the intersection of what they care about in a debate was abortion and planned parenthood. they're not satisfied with coverage of other issues. >> i was surprised that what didn't rise to the top wassing something related to the economy because we keep hearing how they've suffered through one of the worst economies ever. how they've got so much student debt. >> right. and they've expressed student loan debt is one of the biggest issues and don't feel satisfied. >> the number was only 69%. was there anything else? generally, when you're younger, you know, you tend to lean a
certain way and as you get older, maybe you lean a different way. a lot of us have undergone that change. what else stuck out from your survey that maybe surprised you? >> so, we were able to survey members and me len yals throughout the course of the election. after the first debate, the second and third. one thing that stuck out was that the support for hillary clinton rose by 10%. between the poll that we took after the first debate and after the third. rose from 59% to 69%. >> what do you think turpout's going to be? when we look at brexit, the younger, the younger you were, the more you wanted brexit. and yet, when you look at what actually happened, a lot of these young people didn't turn up. >> this is a huge, hunl topic and i've heard all over the place that although they're an equal voting block to baby boomers for the first time in
history, they're not going to turn out. they're not going to vote on tuesday. one of the things we found in our surveys consistently is that they are. 95% of them are going to vote. that that is completely inconsistent with the narrative around them that's happening culturally. >> what do you think you would find if you had done that survey not on october 20th, but ten days a after that? >> my hypothesis is that that percentage is continuing to rise because this election is so polarizing. >> in other words, that the support for mrs. clinton would have been even higher? am i understanding you correct ly? >> no, no, i'm talking about the percentage of me len yals what are going to vote. my asumts would be that percentage is continuing to rise. >> do you have any, in your sr.
surveys or work with millennials, does the topic of e-mails come up? of mr. trump's alleged misbehavior toward women come up? >> those topics do come up and we've run focus groups around that, specifically. we were able to run a focus group yesterday about some of the most recent updats in the election cycle. we found that they're thot changing their mind at this point. there's really very little at this point before tuesday so 90% said it doesn't matter what happens. i'm pretty much set. >> they know what they know. we're all ready to vote. basically what we're saying. >> we all feel that way. thank you. but i do disagree with one thing you said. that they were the equal of baby boomers. that will never happen. >> we'll check back in on that. >> thanks. the other big election story
continues to be the fbi's probe into the clinton foundation. let's get to eamon javers. >> the fbi really under political pressure here in a way we haven't seen in my adult lifetime any way. let me gring brink you a couple of headlines we've seen that give you a sense there's a lot of talking going on by someone or someones about a series of investigations or potential investigations. "new york times" reporting that investigating donald trump fbi sees no clear link to russia. wall street today reporting that there are secret recordings that fuel the fbi's feud in the clinton probe. also, sources within the fbi said that the probe within the clinton foundation could yield indictments of all things. we don't have reporting that can match that, but i want throw those headlines up there, suggest thag the mere fact those reports exist telling you a lot about what's going on inside
federal law enforcement, the department of justice and other agencies now. enormous political pressure, the kind we haven't seen before. a lot of people talking who normally would not talk. that's got a lot of veteran fbi agents fuming. i talked to eric o'neill b about this. a legendary former fbi agent who brought doup the russian spy. he said there can always be squabbles inside the family, but the dirty laundry is rarely laundered outside the fbi and that's why this is so unusual. you see this intense battle between various factions. the mood described as or dark. when you talk to people and look for the historical parallel here, people they have not seen this level inside the fbi since perhaps the nixon years when mark fell famously became deep throat and linked information about what was going on in the knicks ben era. that's how far people go back to
say you have to find a parallel. >> when you see all these sources, the fbi talking like this, it suggests there is internal warfare going on as you mentioned, we haven't seen in decades. >> that's right. you know, call it internal warfare, intense disagreements. people who are bitterly dispinteded, frustrated. director comey's leadership is coming under criticism. decisions of senior officials. rank and file has a variety of different opinions about that. it's very, very tense days right now inside federal law enforcement. >> thank you very much. so, what exactly is the fbi looking for and how exactly are they looking for it? given there are 650,000 alleged e-mail, join iing us now, sean henry, president of crowd strike service, former executive assistant director of the fbi. sean, i know you can't get into
clinton foundation stuff directly. my question more to you is when you have this volume, how exactly is the fbi doing we know it's automated, but what are the methods and what do you believe they are actually looking for? >> well, in terms of the investigation of e-mail, i think the fbi at this point really needs to be expeditious in coming forward with whatever findings they might have. when director comey went to congress last week and congress revealed there was a reopening of this investigation, i think that just merely that there's an ongoing veinvestigation implies there's something improper and that's completely against fbi protocal. so, to resolve that, i think they've got come forward. what they'll be doing is looking at e-mails using sophisticated technology, keyword searches as you know k they've been involved in this investigation for a lopg time. the agents and analysts that have been involved in this, have come context in looking for specific e-mails, relationships
between videos who may have sent communications between others. but at this point, i think it's really critical. >> back to my original question, by the way, i think we agree, there are two issues here. director comey's action, which have come under fire, then the investigation. they are different things. you can agree or disagree, but the fact the investigation is going on is a separate issue. we know there's something going on. what kind of words do you think they are specifically targeting in these automated searches? >> if i can clarify, you're right, they are two separate issue, but the fact there is an vest gag, that being public, i think that requires the fbi to be much more expeditious in getting information out because the fact that the investigation is ongoing tends to imply there's illegal activity. in terms of searching for information, if they're looking for in the original allegation, the investigation relating to
classified information, so they'll be looking for particular cases that they may have seen previously. secret top secret classification codes. they may be looking for certain numbers related to certain documents. so, again, those who have been involved in this investigation ongoing for the past many months, are the ones who are going to have the full context and will be able to hopefully go through this, pull out what's critical and lay it out on the table. >> we've seen there's an internal feud about whether or not there should have been an investigation into the clinton foundation. there was this 12 h page memo from doug band that makes it clear the relationship between the clinton foundation, bill clinton is very related. the suggestion is that they were looking for whether or not there were connections to the secretary of state, hillary clinton, at the time. pay to play. can you outline how they would be thinking about that and what are the chances that they would ever find that? >> yeah, i don't have any
specific information about investigation into the clinton foundation. in terms of investigations related to that type of allegation that you just outlined, i mean, those are very, very complex investigations. certainly, nothing that would bed merely from an emil mail, but might relate to investigative leads where you'd vaa to show some quid proquo. again, i don't have familiarity with that particular allegation, but certainly not something that would be determined through a review of e-mails. >> i want to go back to hillary clinton's e-mails that have been found on the laptop of anthony weiner and her assistant, huma abedin. that occasion, mr. comey's letter to congress last week, you seem to be saying that they ought to say more. about what they've learned in those, in the weeks since that letter. it's now thursday, six days later. do you believe that the risk is
greater in saying more now or the risk is greater in saying nothing now? five days before the election. >> well, when you say risk, i think that we have to follow the facts. as investigators. i think that i worked investigations into public officials for the first ten years of my career. almost cloouf exclusively. i yushed to teach these o agents. you cannot do anything that impacts an election for sheer. you can't take actions that would imply guilt and the fact there's an investigation does that. the fbi did that. we won't go into the detas, but they've done that now. saying there's an investigation. because they've done that, it's imperative that any information they may have relateded to the review of e-mails needs to come out because leaving a gap, having the big void that there's an investigation and you go into the election, the vast majority of the american public sees that
and don't understand the totality. i think it's important to fill the gap with the facts rather than leaving people to their open device to determine what that is. >> even in the facts are incomplete. >> at this point, leaving it void is a problem. and i think that putting whatever the fbi has out on the table i think that goes towards trying to rectify what's happened up this to point. this is not a good situation for anybody. but unfortunately, that's where we're left today. >> thank you very much. appreciate you being with us. >> if you thought the people outside wrigley field were excited about the cubs win, imagine if you owned a piece of the team. up next, you'll hear from a partner this the chicago cubs franchise and speaking of sports. tom brady sat down for a cnbc exclusive interview talkinging football, ratings, social media and politics. that's next.
we can't go back to the years of devastating cuts to public education. so vote yes on prop 55. prop 55 prevents $4 billion in new education cuts, without raising taxes on anyone, and with strict accountability. budget forecasts show if we don't pass prop 55 big cuts that hurt our kids are coming, and california will suffer budget deficits all over again. so vote yes on 55. because it helps our children thrive.
the cubs winning their first world series title. game over. series over. curse over. first title in 108 years. epic game seven victory and boy, did people tune in. fox sports just out with new numbers saying the game drew 40 million viewers making it the most watched baseball game in 25 years. and boy, did it deliver.
it was an excitinging game. >> did you stay up all the way? >> itayed up then listened to the end after the rain delay at 12:30. >> it was exciting. extra innings. >> two comebacks. came back from five. >> down three runs, bottom of the eighth, i was tweeting out tweet for the future indians tie the game with home run and right as i hit about to hit send, they hit the home run. >> i looked at the -- >> only my dog was the witness an he ain't talking. >> i said the guy, i forgot who hit the home run, i said he's going to get a hit. no idea he would get a home run. >> off of raj man. >> if hadn't won that game, kjo madden would have been so roundly questioned for his tactics. let's bring in a cubs partner and investor, andrew berlin. he's on the phone. mr. berlin, you're a cubs investor. how do you feel this morning? this afternoon. >> pretty tired. >> how much sleep did you get?
>> exhilarateded. got home about 5:00 a.m. this morning. feel good. feel good though. >> you were there last night. there were a lot of cubs fans in the stands. >> yeah. i heard some statistics, close to 50% were cubs fans. at progressive field. >> cubs fans travel well. take us through the sort of the emotional arc of last evening. the cubs get out to an early lead. hendrix is pitching well. madden goes to the bull pen early i thought in the fifth inning or there abouts. had two outs. just needed to get one hitter. then cleveland comes back and gets close. emotional ups and downs were huge. >> that's baseball. lester and ross have been lights out for us this season and even chapman has been a fantastic closer.
everyone had hick ups last night, but the faith and belief of being a cubs fan just means you're used to this roller coaster and it all played out beautifully. it was an amazing result. >> andrew, congratulations, i guess here's the thing. there's a little bittersweetness in you have this mystique as the cubs, loverable losers. my wife's from downtown chicago. it's tasic, but the question is now, how does the identity of the cubs change because it's been locked into this one sofrt theme for so long. >> yeah, i've heard that a number of times and i have to say, when you look around the stadium, you look at the video from wrigley, chicago, and the pride we're wearing this morning, it's just, this is so much better than being a lovable loser. we're loveable winners. you take a look at the players, what it means to the kids in their 20s play iing a game for
millions of people. tens of if not hundreds of millions of people. that coaches who have been the roller coaster they've had. even the loyal fan or owner. the arc of this has been so beautiful, so fantastic. that i love being a lovable winner. i think that's more valuable. >> amazing that numerous people would ask is winning bad for the brand. bottom line, right. >> it's true. ruined your brand. >> that's not what i said. i said how is the identity change. >> i know that's not what you said, but that was implicit in what you said, was that they would be less love bable and that the brand is built around. >> congratlation, mr. berlin. >> congrats. >> thank you. >> continued good luck. >> before you go, could i ask one quick question for the people. can you put i mean this sincerely, steve bart, the guy that disrupted the play a number
of years ago who was ran out of toup. he had to hide. get him to throw out a first pitch. let's put him to rest. serious. get this guy his life back. >> i think it would be wonderful to do something terrific for that man. he didn't bring this upon himself. >> but got treated like he did. start a hash tag. bring bartman back. >> check with him. >> congratulations. >> i know you can't fit any more people in wrigley and if you could, you would. >> i offered you guyses seats, you didn't take me up on it. >> no play to play here. >> thank you. >> it's interesting to the point about how many cubs fans there were last night. they had the stats. joe buck and them said how much, the average ticket was 1800 bucks. 42 tickets went for $32,000. if you're a family of four with season tickets and you love the indians and they're good, probably going to be for a few years and you can get 20 grand,
you could pay for your kid's college by giving up. it's a great trade. next up, this stock down 30% today. here's a hint. the company is all about tracking you. it's not the nsa. we'll reveal our disaster when returns. will your business be ready when growth presents itself? american express open cards can help you take on a new job, or fill a big order
up about .4% at 17.965. nasdaq is down about a half percent, continuing its recent decline and s&p the off very modestly as well. wall street's so-called fear index, vix surging to its highest level since june, above 20. melissa. >> time for street talk. the recommendation observe the stocks you need to know about. first here,aller began. getting its price target to 232 from 267. en analysts thinking it will pay off in the second half of 2017. right now, it's not a growth story. second quarter, 15 and growth rates have not outpaced investments and increased rnd spend. >> look at the stock. 300. 250. 200. second stock, transocean
offshore. upgrading swoo sboo a buy from a hold. they kauld the results very strong. they noted massive costs. this was striking. list b b b b to this. in the third quarter of three years ago, so, 2013, the operating and maintenance costs were 1.5 million. this past quarter, 400 million. rig, less work on rigs. less, you hope it doesn't end in some way. so, 1.5 to 404 million. >> shows dwrou peek spending. >> hammering costs. any way, says the structure is a positive thing. when i did the stock this morning, it was 18% up. less than that. >> third stock here, game stock. preannounced weaker results yesterday. credit suisse is one of those. two key concerns here. new businesses, not strong
enough to off set declines and the used business could weaken further given new trends over the past few quarters. >> short interest. also one of f f the high eest out there. maybe the shorts have given up. or finally, small cap call of the day. eagle pharmaceutical, about a $1 billion market cap in new jersey. little story, but the analysts call had to do with the center for medicare and medicaid study, switching a decision and granting the drug. that gives hospitals using it the ability to get branded pricing even after the entry of a generic. got it? mizuho bumping a price target to 78. 13% upside. analysts assigning a 60% probability of a buyout and assign $96 sum of parts valuation on the stock. now up 4%. >> look at that. run since brexit. past three months, up 44%.
>> eagle pharma, bullish. $96, sum of the parts. coming up, men not at work. troubling new statistics on how many working age males simply aren't working. where have they gone? and how are they making a living in stay with "power lunch." tempur-pedic mattresses... whatt is that they contour to your body. it keeps us comfortable and asleep at night. shop our biggest sale of the year, including all tempur-pedic mattresses. save up to $600, now thru november 29th. get your tempur-pedic. the most highly recommended bed in america. fresh ingredients, tokyostep-by-step recipies, delivered to your door for less than $9 a meal. get $30 off your first delivery blueapron.com/cook.
hi, everybody. here's your cnbc news update. a giant wrench has been thrown into the brexit plan, ruling the prime minister cannot trigger the exit from the european union without a vote from parliament. the government said it would go supreme court to challenge the ruling, which if upheld, could present the uk from starting exit talks. kohl's ahounsing it will start black friday sales at 6:00 p.m. on thanksgiving day and for the first time, launch their deals online. they join macy's and j.c. men
pennny's in opening their doors on turkey day. cvs laying off workers in rhode island, illinois and antho arizona. and the celebration in chicago continuing this morning. fans welcoming a caravan of o cubs buses outside wrigley field. fox sports says the average audience was more than 40 million viewers. the most watched baseball game in 25 years. that's the cnbc news update this hour. back to you guys. michelle. >> thank you very much. speaking of ratings, nfl quarterback tom brady talking nfl ratings exclusively with cnbc. >> i'm not sure. i don't know. you know, i feel like a product is great. guys are out there playing as hard as they ever played. i think maybe there's a lot of choices out there now and certainly, i don't think the presidential election and the coverage that gets, i think draws probably some people away.
but you know, we'll see. it's a long season. hopefully, it keeps building. you know, but there's a lot of very smart people at the nfl. >> he doesn't know either. >> i think americans he should have said we're worried about deflation. >> instead of inflation. >> yes. >> wait a minute. i say something like that and i get the stupid sound effect with the drum. can i get the drum sound effect? thank you. deflation? please. >> probably deserved. but that was bad. there we go. >> too obvious. >> see if ratings pick up after the elections. >> the games are b terrible. >> whether you can take out one factor. >> there are so many delays these days. >> every play is a penalty. >> now the skin, it is. because they're committed a lot of fouls. >> why aren't they allowed to celebrate as much? >> you like the gyration.
the twerking. >> exactly. >> according to a new study in their working prime, are not working. question begs, what are they doing? is this really the crisis that some have called it? nicholas is chair and political economy at the aei. jared bernstein says the data just doesn't support that. welcome back. this comes from a brookings study which i sent out on my facebook page couple of days ago, which is basically, men not at work. where are they? what are they doing? what's the problem? >> well it's a problem that's been gathering for half a century. almost a straight line downward of people leaving the labor force, prime age guys, neither working nor look iing for work. as you said, there are about 7 million guys in this group right now, small minority of them are adult students trying to get back in the game. the overwhelming majority are neither employed nor in training
or education. sfwl what are they doing? >> what they say they are doing in time use studies is that they are not doing civil society. they're not doing volunteering, religious activity, help around the house. child care. what they are doing is watching. they are watching videos. watching tv. they're watching hand held driss. >> how do they pay the bills? >> and their food. >> with family. with girlfriends and with uncle. uncle sam. disability programs figure in there in a prominent sort of way. means tests benefits. it's not a great financial life. it's a huge amount of lost human potential. >> your number, is there a sliver here who are not working by choice because they're in a household where the female is now making enough money that they don't have to work, you
mentioned child care, that they're being at home dads. >> there's a huge care because guys and girl this is this age group. you could probably find some guy in salasly toe and another in long island who's home caring for the children, but as a general observation, it's a tine fraction, order of magnitude smaller than for women the same age out of the labor force and as for people who are out of the the labor force voluntarily, voluntarily is a very psychologically loaded term. but when the seven million people are asked why are you out of the labor force, only about 14% say it's because they can't find a job. >> i hear, i read here, you disagree. tell me. >> i want to be very clear about what i disagree with, which is, i thought nick wrote an important book, by the way, and he is right in identifying the problem here. it's his diagnosis that i
disagree with and therefore, some of his prescription, which we haven't talked about yet. so, in fact, if you look at the employment rates of these prime age guy, not just guys. there's a number of women who have left. there's my chart. it's not really just a straight line. i drew the straight line trend in there, but what you see is a great deal of cyclical variation. look at the end of the graph, which is now. those guys and these are prime age men, the. >> reporter: people nick was u js talking about. their rates fell about 6 percentage points. fell off of a cliff. what are they doing as job opportunities come back? they're climbing back. they're climbing back. the b problem isn't disability. that explains less than 10% of the problem that nick is talking about. the problem in large part is lack of opportunity for these workers. especially noncollege educated guys. not saying there aren't some lazy people out there who don't
work when they have opportunity, but i think it's work to dismiss the demand side of the economy as nick largely does. >> construction. lack of jobs going away and with 3-d printing, who knows. it's a good discussion. bring you guys back on. thank you. see you soon. >> thank you. facebook posted better than ek pecked earnings, but warns about a slowdown in ad growth. that's sending shares lower today, raising questions about whether digital ads are really working. that's straight ahead, but first, to rick santelli for today's bond report. >> well, melissa lee, as tired as we are, the markets seem to be a bit tired as well. and maybe not for the same reasons as those in chicago, but if you look at one week chart of ten, we haven't followed much in yield, but it's a different pattern and we're closer to hovering at the 186 level, which is basically the pivot. next five, a kouchl days before
brexit. a lot of talk about the -- about parliament, the vote, brexit. the it's going to get more dicesy. but we don't see a very valid bottom. whether the dollar, pound euro or yen. even though the dollar index is falling below key support levels. keep an eye on the foreign exchange markets for the next couple of weeks. "power lunch" will return after these breaks. what are you doing? getting your quarter back. fountains don't earn interest, david. you know i work at ally. i was being romantic. you know what i find romantic? a robust annual percentage yield that's what i find romantic. this is literally throwing your money away. i think it's over there. that way? yeah, a little further up. what year was that quarter? what year is that one? '98 that's the one. you got it! nothing stops us from doing right by our customers. ally. do it right. let's get out of that water.
ally. do it right. ♪balance transferot to othat's my game♪ bank you never heard of, that's my name♪ haa! thank you. uh, next. watch me make your interest rate... disappear. there's gotta be a better way to find the right card. whatever kind you're searching for, creditcards.com lets you compare hundreds of cards to find the one that's right for you. just search, compare, and apply at creditcards.com. ♪a one, a two, a three percent cash back♪ facebook shares are down by 5.6%. listen to what the cfo said on the call last night. >> ad load has been one of the three primary factors fuelling that growth with a much smaller contribution going forward. we expect to see ad rate revenues coming down.
>> let's brick in julia boorstin and ed lee. guy, great to have you both with us. julia, what's interesting is that what he said on the call yesterday was similar to what he already said in the second quarter after its earnings call and yet, the reaction this time would you say much sharper. >> that's right. he useded a couple of keywords, such as meaningfully, so note the growth rate will deaccelerate. going into next year. but i do think it's worth noting that the company did outperform on a number of levels. growing daily active user, monthly, revenue and earnings faster than expected, but i think with the company that's grown so fast, investors are really watching this growth rate and are concerned it's going to slow. >> part of this is function of they yammed as many ads as they could into the news feed. how many can they pop in without revolting people? they just simply got to find where else to put those ads, i would think. >> you're right.
those loads, they've topped off. shown you as many ads as you'll be able to bear in your news feed. what they need to do to boost growth is need sofrt higher cost ads or higher rate ads that is and i think that's why they're been puching video for the last few quarters or at least for the past year. video ads yenly perform better, certainly cost more. maybe they can charge more at a higher rate. that's the direction any online publisher is heading in. gl so, this is the same issue is tv faces. how many minutes p per haour of ads do you do. doesn't facebook have other channels though? i mean, there's the news feed. don't they have what's app and instagram? >> exactly. well, facebook is very careful not to make money too early. so, as they hit the limit on the
ad load for the news feed, they're trying to figure out who you to generate revenue with from what's app and facebook messenger. those two apps have a billion users. we're talking at huge audience, user base and huge potential to generate revenue, but mark zuckerberg talked about it on the call, they're in the early phases of figuring that out. down the line, there's massive potential, but we're not seeing significant revenue right now. the timing is interesting because we had news where the wall street is going to be laying off a bunch of people. they're condensing. "new york times" ad revenues have collapsed. if facebook is tarting to slow, and we know the dingital ads ma be not don't work, but the click through rate is fractional on half of those, are accidental drunken clicks. all the ads are not going on to traditional print media as well, where's the digital marketing money going? are advertisers going give up?
>> they're not giving up. i think you point out all the right sort of aspects in terms of why this is a kai nund rum. there's this weird gap now where it's like the online ads aren't quite performinging the way they want them to, but there's more money flowing in. it's being split and it's also hard to track. like is this working versus that one? a lot of data, just competinging. if you're a marketer, you have more money to spend. there's more audience, more tension. >> wall street analysts seem to be sticking by the stock. they're giving facebook a free pass because lowing ads mean lower than the 56% growth it's seen before and they're looking past, it will pay off in spades
after 2017. >> yes. i mean, i think over the long tirm, a number of analysts have pointed out not only does facebook have these other businesses it could start to monotize, but perhaps keeping an eye on the ad load is a good thing in order to maintain the user growth and grow the user engagement. they're inning heavily in growth. they're highing engineer to try to figure out the video ad situation. how does it steal more ad dollars from television. this is massive flat form. >> thanks. pot and pouring. >> what? >> two big initiatives. jane wells is live in l.a. for that. jane. >> michelle, they are devicive issues among the 17 prop rations. will they set a national precedent? sex and drugs. when "power lunch" returns. isn't major medical enough? no! who's gonna' help cover the holes in their plans? aflac!
like rising co-pays and deductibles... aflac! or help pay the mortgage? or child care? aflaaac! and everyday expenses? aflac! learn about one day pay at aflac.com/boat blurlbrlblrlbr!!! will your business be ready when growth presents itself? american express open cards can help you take on a new job, or fill a big order or expand your office and take on whatever comes next. find out how american express cards and services
billion dollars in state tax, the people who grow the stuff are divided. v you be grow something. >> since i was a kid. about 30 years. >> sunshine johnston is a second generation grower in humboldt county, where younger farmers seem more supportive of legalize, even though it means lower margins. >> we haven't had a future until now and now, we have a future and in five year, we'll start to see what it looks like. zpl i'm excited about it. really excited. i -- feel like i'm ready. i've been doing all the permitting work. i am working with the cpa. getting my taxes in order. running it in a legitimate way. >> i think there's going to be a period of time where the prices are going to go really low and it's, it is going to be about the ones that survive. >> se quoi area hudson is probably going to vote no. part of a group of growers trying to get their branding up
to speed to fight off the outsiders and they're moving in. locals don't like it. crime is up in some areas. prop 64 limits the real estate a grower can own for the first five year to only one acre to allow local farmers to get a head start. >> okay. barriers to entry. no matter what the industry is. all right, from pot to porn. a big issue impacting the adult film industry also on the ballot in california. what's the story, jane? >> speaking of a barrier to entry, mandatory condom laws are on the books for the adult film industry, but prop 60 would boost enforcement by deputizing all 40 million of us. any company could sue u a porn producer if they believe a condom wasn't used. there's a financial incentive. >> the person that sues at the expense of the state of california, underwriting their lawsuit, gets 25% of whatever fines are levied against who
gets sueded. >> if i'm sued, that means somebody has access to my legal name and address, which is scary for anybody in any sofrt entertainment industry because there are superfans out there, stalker, just outright crazy, violent people that often want to gain access to you for the wrong reasons. >> porn was once an estimated $4 billion industry and much has left the country. kelly holland is surprised this risen to the state level. she says it really impacts about 120 men who are actively adult film actors in the tate. only 120 because she says, quote, many are called, but few are chosen. we'll see what happens tuesday. >> oh, jane, you are so good. >> thank you very much. >> thank you. up next, the next big black swan for the market. nassim will look into his crystal ball when he joins us next.
♪ if you're on medicare, remember, the open enrollment period is here. the time to choose your medicare coverage begins october 15th and ends december 7th. so call unitedhealthcare to enroll... in a plan that could give you the benefits and stability you're looking for, an aarp medicarecomplete plan insured through unitedhealthcare. what makes it complete? it can combine medicare parts a and b, which is your hospital and doctor coverage with part d prescription drug coverage, and more, all in one simple plan for a low monthly premium or in some areas, no plan premium at all. an aarp medicarecomplete plan offers you benefits like an annual physical, preventive screenings and most immunizations all for a $0 copay. you'll also have access to a local network of doctors and much more. you can get routine vision and hearing coverage,
a fitness membership to help you stay active, and worldwide emergency care. for prescriptions, you'll pay the plan's lowest price, whether it's your co-pay or the pharmacy price. or pay zero dollars for a 90-day supply of your tier 1 and tier 2 drugs, delivered right to your door. in fact, our medicare advantage plan members saved an average of over $4,500 last year. now is the time to look at your options. start getting the benefits of an aarp medicarecomplete plan insured through unitedhealthcare. unitedhealthcare has been helping medicare beneficiaries for over 30 years. we'll connect you with the right people, help schedule your appointments, and with renew by unitedhealthcare, you can learn about healthy living and earn rewards, too. remember, medicare open enrollment ends december 7th. call unitedhealthcare today about an aarp medicarecomplete plan. you can even enroll right over the phone. don't wait.
call unitedhealthcare or go online now. ♪ welcome back. here is what is on the "power lunch" menu for a second hour today. the black wans in the market, nassim taleb will look into his crystal ball, who he thinks will win the presidential election and much, much more. the s&p 500 down 3% in the past
month. four risks that won guest says are bigger than the election and the fed and what tech bubble? why silicon valley is feeling so good right about now. the second hour of power begins right now. ♪ >> here's how your must be lomoy looks, the market is trying to stop a shechb day losing streak. the north ameriasdaq is on trac eighth loss in a row. in the past month, more than one-fourth have lost 7% and in fact, 12 stocks are down more than 10% in just 30 days. >> i'm melissa lee. check out some of the big moves now. semiconductors soaring 20%. the chip maker being bought out for $1.3 billion. sprout farmers tanking 10%. the supermarket missing estimates and the hotel chain
beating earnings estimates. >> as tyler said, nassim taleb is here to share his 2017 scenarios. you know his books. black swan. antifragile. also a distinguished scientific adviser. this is a hedge fund focused on market tail risks. in other words, the least likely events to happen. best known for one day reportedly to have made a one billion dollar profit o. welcome back "power lunch." >> thanks for inwrite vooiting me. >> is donald trump going to win the election? h f he does s that ta black swan event? >> it's not a black swan event when it's 50-50. the only reason bable way is to say 50-50. and each person should be prepared for the consequences. now, let me tell you, i'll tell you up front, i don't have an
nder view on the election because i'm not voting for the two major candidates. out of ethic, i'm going to vote for someone outside. >> you find them so unethical? >> no, no, it's because you don't vote, your vote should be according to your preference, not who who's going to win. some say they feel they're going to waste a vote by voting libertarian or green party. got to vote according to preferences. >> it was a joke about the black swan event. obviously, if you can predict it or know about it, then it's not a black swan event. >> of course. for the ki, not for the butcher. >> but there's a lot of economists out there say federal government donald trump wins, the stock market's going to decline dramatically. had noble prize signing petitions. they aring frightened. >> i've been in the market most of my adult life.
from experience, the markets di count events. if it were such a catastrophcat the s&p would be down 20%. if it were. now, so i don't think that it's i mean, there's a lot of luster and discourse before the election. i don't know you know, mentally prepared. again, not voting for trump on clinton, but i'm mentally prepared for either candidate and i had this idea that in the end, trump is a real estate sales man. so, when you elect real estate sales people to the presidencies, trying to deliver something. asking what you guy want. >> how do you position though in terms of your own portfolio? you take a look at markets and see trump moving. do you see more softness in market. at the same time, you've got historically low volatilities. you could remain long. can't read what the markets are telling you. >> okay, but it's absolutely
necessary to be prepared for an event regardless of the election because the market has been on novocain now since 2009. because we're -- >> the fed. >> exactly. the fed. because the market was weak any way. a a lot of this asset, when interest rates are zero, people are going to buy stocks. and then bought the stocks, this is why you've got to be prepared regardless of the election. the second point, obama, we had stability under obama. okay? particularly in foreign policy. these guys had the brilliant idea of gifing them a noble ahead of time, so he felt obligated. >> preemptive. probably the best. you give someone a noble prize and expect the person -- >> how can you wage war? >> he didn't act like they wanted him to act. after libya, had second
thoughts. he's acting as someone moderate in foreign policy. we cannot expect that to continue under hillary, unless they give her a noble, which i doubt. >> when we're looking at the election, we're looking at the disaster and crisis in syria. looking at isis. is it cynical to think that's when everyone's looking one way or two ways at something else, the actual black swan occurs. is that a cynical view? >> i think it's the way i reason. telling myself that people think problems are going to come out of syria. but the problems going to come from much further away. and if you smell where the trouble and early 1300s, when
the early 13th century when efb was focused on wars shiites and sunnis, catholics and orthodox and meanwhile, atila the hut came. it resembles -- >> what is the risk, if it's not the election, the idea that a trump presidency's going to be quote, bad. what is the tail risk that worries you? >> there are a list of things you have to plan for. i hope they never happen. but the first thing you have to plan for is an increased tension between china and the west. particularly over the visibly, the philippines. we saw what happened and africa. little by little, gaining influence. so, we're going to have east west tension along these lines and traditional cold war line. for example, got to be prepared for that. also got to be prepared for a change in scenery with people
losing interest. because progressively, something for sure, it's a huge option in solar. whether it pays off in 2017 or 2027. eventually, you've got to be prepared for a loss of interest. because nobody cares what's going to happen there. so, the syrian you know, war is interesting. but less for the great power and more for the -- >> look what's going on in saudi arabia. >> exactly. saudi arabia has huge deficits. the main problem is europe, i think. also. the wup you've got to consider is that people finally figured out that their problem was not europe as an entity or concept. the problem was brussels. and having that top down structure is no longer compatible to the complex system we had in 2017, so, to give you an example, say you're serbian
dentist living in new york. right. don't join one club. you want to join the dentist club. the serbian local club and the club of rich players if you're a rich player. the same thing for countries. the uk is now visibly after brexit, is gain is they're going to have relationship with the eu. also with the united states and canada. then countries progressively start opting out of having to go to a bureaucrats in brussels to run their affairs. that will lead to a change of scenery in europe. that would be in my opinion -- >> the national spres will overcome the collective sbles. >> people will start having side deals.
>> the average person doesn't have a hedge fund to help them manage tail risk. what do you think is the best hedge for somebody sitting at home? buy gold? is it what? >> i mean, i own gold. not that i love gold, but i -- >> as a hedge. >> got to own some gold. you never know what happens. some say bit coin. it's great, but too stek speclative. i would not recommend i would say to have hedges was the hard to have hedges in stocks. if you cannot, just don't own stocks. okay. we're tarting to see the effect of the tail enof the policy. where the end of the policy was very effective in the beginning and the asset prices, but now -- >> can i just clarify the point? if i'm sitting at home and have a portfolio, which chances are,
people do, and i wanteded to hedge and you're telling me i can't, i'm better you have selling my entire position. >> reduce your portfolio. reduce to the point where you may not have to suffer if there's a reduction asset value. people overinvest typically. periods like these. and lot of people are what i call fake bulls. invested in sfoks because you know, they see better yield and they think it's safe compared to treasury bills. they yield nothing. >> got to start watching options actions at 5:30. >> great to have you. >> thanks. >> now to dominique chu with a market flash. >> if you're looking for a bright spot in the eight-day losing streak for the stock market, check out what's happeninging with the transportation stocks. the i shares transportation et is in the green so far today. it's working on its third president obaositive day in the. the gains today are being towered bay jump in share of avis budget after they posted
better than expegted earnings. ups, jet blue helping out to push the average hire. >> i will be doing that. thank you. if you are worried about the fed and the election, you're focus ong the wrong thing. that was our past guest and our next guest says that as well. says there are four bigger concerns for you and your money. he'll explain why the egyptian and we'll explain why the egyptian pound plumeting. a live look at burrwin,
pennsylvania, where melania trump is about to gi her first solo speech. we'll continue monitor it for you. "power lunch" returns in two. at the marine mammal center, the environment is everything.
we want to do our very best for each and every animal, and we want to operate a sustainable facility. and pg&e has been a partner helping us to achieve that. we've helped the marine mammal center go solar, install electric vehicle charging stations, and become more energy efficient. pg&e has allowed us to be the most sustainable organization we can be. any time you help a customer, it's a really good feeling.
it's especially so when it's a customer that's doing such good and important work for the environment. together, we're building a better california. british pound surging more than 1%. court ruling they have to get approve first to trickle article 50. the formal process to begin the br brexit. the united koing dom's exist, investors think this may lead to a softer brexit. there's another pound head nd the opposite direction. the egyptian pound. it cratered 44% in the past 24 hour because the could be tri let the egyptian pound float freely for the first time ever. the imf demanded it or else get a $12 billion loan to deal with the worst crisis in decades. >> most investors right now are focused on the election or maybe the fed, the december meeting,
but our next guest says forget those. there are four disrupters that could be far more troublesome for your money. joining us now, ron carson, a member of cnbc's digital financial adviser counsel. glad you're a member of that. but so, you say or mi notes say you say that wer we're on the eve of a massive disruption far bigger than the election and there are four elements to it. why do you say that and what is number one among those that worries you? i think the biggest one is total kis rupgs of emerging technology. think about blockbuster, netflix. i think we're at the beginning stages of having total disruption. you think about block chain. bit come and what that means, but what's that mean, sort of o currency. maybe a currency was the poorest example of the first experiment
to trial, but i think disruption the here. it's going to replace massive number of jobs. everybody keeping talking at the election. what should i do? you never see the bus. you never get hit by the bus coming at you. it's all the other things. y2k. we worried about planned for it. a collective sigh of relee. everybody said it didn't get it, but it did. >> i think you're right. we're talked about block chain a lot. sort of the black swan in a way that taleb just talked about. we focused on bit coin, here's this technology that i believe could disrupt, probably wipe out half of wall street jobs in years. that's from wall streeters i talked to. when your clients come into you, what do you say to do around
this? short the banks because they're going to lay off their people? >> first of all, it's not a zero sum game. there's going to be winners and losers. this is always true. always has been. investor behavior is what destroys wealth because we're not prepared. hug your risk budget. right now, market's not inexpensive. your last guest was talking ability it's difficult to hedge positions. it's really not. it's fire insurance. >> why is it expensive to hedge and why are the markets not expensive at a 19 pe. >> i think they are. >> sorry. >> most expensive in history. we have a third of sovereign debt and they're low and i think they're going to go lower, not higher. >> a struggle with though, we've been talking about the potential
disruption for years and so far, whatever disruption has happened has not resulted in investment thieves. it's really things like the conventional risks to the market like the fed and the elections that are driving stocks right now. so, i want to say, i want to say that i -- right, so, how long, what is your time frame and how to you navigate for instance if the disruption of block chain for the financial sector, how do you knave gait that trend with a more immediate impact of rising rate, which is good for the financial sector. >> i woul love to have raise rates and we could debate for a while whether it's good. i think it is, but let's talk about the here and now, we know the markets the third most expensive in history. we know the markets are volatile. we know there's a lot of noise and the market's going to react from day-to-day so, if i'm an investor, what do i do? i better evaluate, i agree with the previous guest, we get overinvested. euphoric. we've had the central banks have
the pedal to the mettle all this time. that's when you should be more hesitant. so, at least know back to this theme know, the markets will do whatever it needs to do to -- largest number of of people, always has and will. so let's have a game plan and protect hedge ourselves. i think most people confuse being long only when things are going up. >> we have to go, but ten years from now, are domestic u.s. stocks going to be higher or lower? >> higher, but i don't think by a lot. maybe compound two or three percent, which means you're going to have to look for alternative ways to accumulate wealth. >> less apock liptic. than i might have inferred. >> yes. because i think there will be some real opportunities along the way. >> thanks. >> thank you. get dom for a market flash.
>> what we're watching with a number of generic drug makers in the u.s. and abroad. because of broom berg say thag the u.s. justice department is examining the role of more than a dozen generic drug makers and that u.s. charges generic drug probes are said to be filed fwi end of this year. this could be with regard to its pricing scheme, whether or not there was collusion involved with some of these drug makers, with how they priced their products. it's having a huge impact on stocks. we're looking at shares like mylan, down big here. also watching shares again of some other big generic drug makers. this regard to these headlines coming out on possible charges being filed by again, these department of justice with regard to generic drug makers. that's the reason the stocks are moving the way they are. >> we don't know the nature of this. to underline what you're saying,
we don't know relating to what. you talk about maybe it's collusion, maybe it's this. but we don't know. >> what we do know is that there have been probes disclosed by other generic drug makers over the past months with regards to pricing. we know tarot pharmaceuticals were being subpoenaed by the justice department with regard to pricing and its role with that spectacular scheme in the drug world. these are just headlines. that's the reason why these stocks are move, but we know some that have been the subject of inquiries from regulators with regard to pricing. >> the biggest headline seems to be without the detail, dom, and we understand that is that it was branded pharmaceuticals that have been under attack. the ones with the brand names. that had exclusivity. now, we're seeing gentlemen nerms who are supposed to be the hero of the pharmaceutical market reportedly also now, so it's not just the branded drug, guys.
apparently, it is epipen. >> the generic players coming in to rescue the industry. they may be under attack. >> when you look at the old reports and dom referred to the fact there have been talk about other companies several months ago, communications are competitors and others. subpoena documents related to that. to generic pharmaceutical products. but i think the most significant one might be communications with competitors and others. >> right. zpl if they thought there was some kind of -- >> what this does more broadly is really paint almost every corner of the health care industry in a negative light. if you just piece together the sort of perception. of what is in fact driving prices. collusion. greed. according to bernie sanders. take a look now, as you know, this is another one of these stocks. when ever you bring up drug prices, any number of of the ibs plaguing the drug industry, it's also at the heart of that.
you can see the intraday reaction in those shares as well. rightly or wrongly, we're seeing the stock react and we're bring ing it to your attention. >> it's a shame, isn't it? everybody is vilifying profits within the pharmaceutical industry. profits bring products to the markets. the more you have, the more you will get. more life saving products you will get, but everybody seems to forget that in these moments. we understand it like an iphone or things that we like to buy, but you know, for om reason, pharmaceutical industry is always under fire for this. >> overall reaction, health care sector by the way, not too much. this is a small part overall. the driver today has been also bio techs. they've extended their losing streak at this point. and that sector has been under heavy pressure not just today, but also yesterday. so that's already been in effect on top of these reports. we're getting out of mylan.
not thought of as bio tech, but a big component. >> car, crap, the game and the sun. the good, the bad and down right ugly. it's next. as a benchmark for average. yet a lot of people still build portfolios with strategies that just track the benchmarks. but investing isn't about achieving average. it's about achieving goals. and invesco believes doing that today requires the art and expertise of high-conviction investing. translation? why invest in average? i've got a nice long life ahead. big plans. so when i found out medicare doesn't pay all my medical expenses, i looked at my options. then i got a medicare supplement insurance plan. [ male announcer ] if you're eligible for medicare, you may know it only covers about 80%
of your part b medical expenses. the rest is up to you. call now and find out about an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. like all standardized medicare supplement insurance plans, it helps pick up some of what medicare doesn't pay. and could save you in out-of-pocket medical costs. to me, relationships matter. i've been with my doctor for 12 years. now i know i'll be able to stick with him. [ male announcer ] with these types of plans, you'll be able to visit any doctor or hospital that accepts medicare patients. plus, there are no networks, and virtually no referrals needed. so don't wait. call now and request this free decision guide to help you better understand medicare... and which aarp medicare supplement plan might be best for you. there's a wide range to choose from. we love to travel - and there's so much more to see. so we found a plan that can travel with us.
anywhere in the country. [ male announcer ] join the millions of people who have already enrolled in the only medicare supplement insurance plans endorsed by aarp, an organization serving the needs of people 50 and over for generations. remember, all medicare supplement insurance plans help cover what medicare doesn't pay. and could save you in out-of-pocket medical costs. call now to request your free decision guide. and learn more about the kinds of plans that will be here for you now - and down the road. i have a lifetime of experience. so i know how important that is.
welcome back. first to the good. avis group. the car rental company topping estimates, rebounding after back-to-back misses in the previous two quarters. the stock is up. a whopping 13% today. to the bad. wyan resorts. 11.5% drop in revenue from its mckau resorts. a drop of almost 9% for the stock and it's an absolutely ugly day for first solar. third quarter earnings well below estimates. cutting guidance, right here, you see the results. down 16% today so far. down week for loyal is about to end. we'll get the closing trades next. tsf? american express open cards can help you take on a new job, or fill a big order
hi, everybody. here's your cnbc news update. a joint u.s. after a began raid against the taliban involving nato air strikes has left 26 civilian, three afghan troops and two u.s. service members dead. the attack is under investigation. president obama campaigning for hillary clinton in florida. a major battleground state. he spoke t a a rally at florida
international university in miami this morning. >> you have a chance to elect a leader who's spent her entire life trying to move this country forward. the first female president. who can be an example pr our sons and daughters. you have had the chance to sthap history and i want young people to understand those motes don't come that often. >> this year's hot holiday today is hatchimals and they have sold out. they are interactive toys that hatch from a plastic egg. kids must nurture the egg and once it hatch, they can teach the toy to walk and talk. and i'm sure it's noisy, too. that's the cnbc news update. they always are. back to you. >> thank you very much. happening right now, melania trump making her first solo campaign speech since the republican national convention. book in the midsummer in cleveland. she's in pennsylvania, a key
swing state. we'll continue to monitor this for you. the oil market is set to close now and crude sliding again today. crude oil down more than 8% in the past month. let's bring in roberto. it was looking good, bulls were happy, over 50 bucks a couple of trade iing days ago. what's happen snd sxwl we finally start to see some of the massive crude that's a wash on the seas right now. finally hit the gulf coast. 8 million barrels yesterday was from imports into the gulf coast. there's 78 million barrels floating offshore. combine that with low seasonal refinery rates, which are around 85% and some of that is sitting in storage and the eps along with russia and opec all producing record levels. >> is some of this related to the colonial pipeline? the idea being i guess they're going to reopen it, but if you can't pump the material, don't refint in the first place
because you got no place to keep it. a bunch of oil is going to be stuck somewhere until they can get the backlog done, but you start to see the drawdown. is that garbage or anything to that? >> it's part of the equation. smaller part. i think the pick bigger factor, protection, opec is a record in object of over 34 million barrels. russia's producing over 30 million bashs. all come tear we've had is higher next year because they were able to hedge it higher price when we had the runs from 40 to 50. so there's going to be a lot more oil being produced well into the second half of '17 and that's the reason there's this huge amount of born crude out there. there's nowhere for it to go. >> i was waiting for dwrou talk about the number coming out of transocean. how it's getting cleeper for them to produce crude. that would had to supply as well
and start to shrink that gap. when we know the saudis can produce at a bucks a barrel and here, it's 45. it strts to get smaller and smaller and wells can stay open longer and compete. >> great point. i think the big part of the reason, one has to look at the duc, uncompleted well situation. there's over 3600 ducks in the united states and when these start to turn on, which they can turn out in 60090 days, their break prices are much lower. they don't take into effect the costs when they turn back on. >> roberto, good to see you. see you soon. >> take care. >> let's get the day's disaster and that would be fit bit. the stock tanking. 30%. this no surprise as the new low for the san francisco based wearables company. after anounts announcing holiday sales would be much weaker, blaminging the losses on low demand.
it should be noted that fitbit makes about 40% of revenues in the fourth quarter. lowered its forecast. that is a huge problem. >> this is starting to feel oo a little bit like the jane fonda workout. >> the fan is done. sxwl it's over. >> that's what cramer said. he called the company done. not the fad. >> it is so true. put on pounds during the holidays. make a commitment in january, i'm quoing to run every day. get the fitbit, track the steps. we do it. into january. >> the drawer. >> it's in the drawer. >> the nordic tracker ends up being the thing where you put your clothes. >> nordic track. >> is that what the jane fonda vhs? >> thinking of the old, old db. >> i want some roler blades for christmas. >> i wrote that down. roler blades. >> jazzer size.
>> leg warmers. >> one of my son's play mate, he wore a fit bit for a day, he had 60,000 steps. kids do a lot more. >> by the way, seriously, got a long commute. i would notice when i would get home, i would have had 1,000 more steps sitting in the car. >> because of the movement. >> you're supposed to input when you're in the car. >> i had manual transmission, but i was like, i felt really good, but realized just sitting in the car. z zwl. >> you're supposed to input that you were in the car and then it adjusts. >> don't do that. >> got too complicated. >> seven downgrades today. >> they notice something bad. >> like the stock. >> right. >> plumeting. >> those analysts, they're on it. ahead of the curve. >> drive stick. coming up, what the stock market is doing that it has not done
since october of 2008. trading nation is next. mary buys a little lamb. one of millions of orders on this company's servers. accessible by thousands of suppliers and employees globally. but with cyber threats on the rise, mary's data could be under attack. with the help of at&t, and security that senses and mitigates cyber threats, their critical data is safer than ever. giving them the agility to be open & secure. because no one knows & like at&t.
every great start-up begins with a simple idea.
but with growth comes complexity. that's why so many innovators are on the ibm cloud. like refinery 29, with nearly a billion views a year. or runkeeper, a training app used by over 50 million runners. or game developers whose popularity depends on launching new updates fast. helping to keep a company's success uncomplicated -
that's what the ibm cloud is built for. helit begins from thepany's the second we're born.er. because, healthier doesn't happen all by itself. it needs to be earned every day. using wellness to keep away illness. and believing a single life can be made better by millions of others. as a health services and innovation company optum powers modern healthcare by connecting every part of it. so while the world keeps searching for healthier we're here to make healthier happen.
confidence in the private market has taken a knock, but the tide could be changing. looking at the latest numbers on venture capital sentiment. >> despite plenty of reasons to be cautious, average confidence among silicon valley capitalists surged in the third quarter. the university of san francisco's school of management surveys more than 30 in the bay area on their future views for the the start up virlt. in q3, their confidence jumped above a nearly 13-year average. many are anticipating investment opportunities in products like self-driving cars, now, aside from macro factors and a very uncertain political environment, nervousness about a tech bubble has been grow iing this year. confidence in private markets has taken a hit as investments have plunged in the third quarter and unicorn valuations have dipped. when deliveries start up u closed its dift round of funding this week at the same valuation it was at last year, its ceo joked that flat is the new up.
even the hottest start up names like uber have had to look overseas to raise money. but this survey shows that hopes remain for an improving dpit market for start ups. sip cindy miller aez sez the ma is showing sane of life this fall and he thinks it's just the start. after the bell today, the first u.s. venture backed tech company to ipo debut in 2016 reports its quarterly result. back to you. >> thank you very much. some insight now into the tech world from stephan white, an 18-year veteran of microsoft. he's now an angle investor. welcome to "power lunch." good to have you with us. the artificial intelligence, is that the thing that's sucking
the dollars in terms of competing against other areas? >> there's a lot of it out there for good reason. think about what ai would for almost every industry, every product. pretty transformtive. so the notion dollars are flowing into that to create a utility this other products -- it's very logical. >> in terms of immediate applications because i think a lot of people out there think of ai and they think there's amazon series called humans where these robots gain singularity. that's pretty far off, but in terms of the immediate application, we're talking practice kl things like optimizing lodgistics, optimizing how thing rs put and taken out of a warehouse for instance. >> right. in my business, we use a lot of that for those sort of things. how do you optimize a truck route to get to a customer faster? h how do you look at a credit card payment and decide whether it's fraudulent. they require learn tog tune to balance, so even for us in a business that focuses on helping
retailers and brands deliver amazing e commerce experiences, the amount of ai involved in doing it profitably is staggering. >> when you u talk about investing this ai, what are you talking about investing in? a team of programmers for instance? >> it's a great question. there's, it's a very large term as i think you articulated. there is this notion of big data collection, transformation. it's guys and gals who are really smart in mathematic status ibs. it's being able to mine earns through data. or those hundreds of millions of transactions a day you see across the credit card network and being able to figure out the pattern. what's the good or bad thing you're looking to find there. the disciplines are actually multifarious. they're all over the map, which makes it exciting, also pretty
hard. >> thank you. >> it's time now for trading nation. and today, we are trading this increasingly shaky market. the s&p 500 down seven days in a row could make it eight today. some suggesting the underlying market fundamentals may be worse than that. rich ross and david are your trading nation team today. and david, i mean, how weak or maybe strong is this market right now? i heard last night that only five dow stocks are responsible for the entire gain of the dow this year. >> yeah, no doubt. as it's clear, it's all about jobs number tomorrow. the election. it's election driven right now, so in the near term until next tuesday, we're basically in a a market that's going to go could go in either direction. rallies will not be long-lived. they'll be sold. any pullback will be shallow. but the election, dictated the
way this market is being driven. when you look at global yield, you look at sovereign yields. that's going p put a cap on. the longer term issue rs more about yields and earnings, but the short-term, it's clear it's election and jobs report tomorrow. if we get a rally in the jobs report, it's a sell. >> good grief. what if we get a a what what with a what what? >> if we get a bounce based ton jobs r report, it will be a short lived rally. >> if we get a decent report, we're selling that rally. >> kregt. correct. no doubt. election, everything's predicated on this now. at least in the near term. we can't have another brexit like moment. especially going into a year where all these hedge funds are performance has been b so scattered. they can't take the risk of getting ahead. >> i actually forgot we had a jobs number tomorrow. so much going on.
usually, it's like oh, the jobs number. rich ross, would you dissect the cal, loog at the stuff you do. up, down, volume, whatever. is the market on shaky ground or just a bad little run? is. >> no, it's the former. we are on shaky ground here and my fear is that there's a view that politics are the panacea, which will cure what ails us, but the real problem here is not the lack of leadership in the polls, but the lack of leadership in the market itself. bring up the chart. i'll show you why we go down. it's another 2% at a minimum. from here, you're looking at the short-term shot there. we've now broken below those brexit highs at 2120. you've got the 200 day around 2070 but that provides little comfort for a a market sadly lacking in leadership here and if you can zoom out, we're going to look at this weekly chart here. this is where it gets dicesy. you've fallen back into this
multiyear trading range. gone nowhere. you have nothing to show for it. where's the leadership. you've lost health care, discretionary, cyclicals. you're left with technology to o carry the mail at the tail end of a 7.5 year bull market just as we were left with in 2000 when we had another eight year cycle in the presidential election. we've got issues here and they're bigger than just the election. >> they are and i guys, thank you very much. david and rich. for more trading nation, go to trading nation. i do wonder is the market a metaphor more america? health care has been a problem. some say we lack leadership. listening to everything, technology has been the only bright spot. >> growing, but not much. >> reflection of overall -- >> all so fast and loud. so dramatic. >> starbucks set to report results after the bell.
. starbucks shares hitting a new 52 week low. is the company struggling with competition from lower cost competitors like dunkin' donuts? >> starbucks missed same store sales now for two straight quarters. the numbers say that gourmet coffee places are looking at slowing sales growth and those might be going to the no frills cheaper competitors. total coffee sales in the u.s. for high end chains like
starbucks have seen sales up 8% this year but less than 12% gain in growth they saw last year. the donut chains like dunkin have seen coffee sales recover in 2016 after suffering a drop in 2015. what is going on here? consumers are not drinking coffee and not as many premium specialty drinks buying less and the reason may be sticker shock. they are pretty pricey, uncertainty over the election keeping them away and many options including cheaper places to get the fancy coffee drinks. when it comes to restaurants i want to point out that the key is repeat visits. in 2016 foot traffic is up but repeat visits they are down so far. back to you. >> they need to keep coming back. thank you so much, susan. the experience has gotten better
at dunkin' donuts. part is the experience. in some ways experience lessened the product. >> and they are making a lot more beverages of the sort that starbucks made, lattes and flavored lattes. i do think the point on sticker shock is a big one. >> i went through one and they had like egg mcmuffins. you can get the drive through and bill was like $8 for a coffee. maybe i'm just cheap. >> almost double what you do at mcdonald's. >> and it is good. >> i like mcdonald's coffee better. >> i think the issue for the stocks is will starbucks cite a profound weakening because of the uncertainty surrounding the election? they said that back in july. will they say that again even
though consumer data is holding up. dunkin' donuts said overwhelming dampening effect. whatever you want to call it, could that just be their excuse here once again on top of -- >> like the weather. >> i need coffee every day. don't you need coffee every day? you need more of it. >> i don't know, but they said that in july. imagine what they will say this time. >> let's stay with the coffee theme. this is the new starbucks coffee design. it is a green cup with a lot of different faces. >> it is like a '70s retrow looking thing. some customers, of course complained about the mill message or what they thought was political message. starbucks did not say if this would stick around. starbucks trying to do something
nice. people now with the internet everybody is mad about everything. no one is happy. >> no one is into unity right now. >> unified in hatred of unity. >> or that you must be unified. >> everybody is offended by everything. >> it's a cup. >> just stick with the white cup. >> color blind people can't see it because it is green. >> it is exclusionary. >> like tyler's tie universally hated and loved. >> check please is next. [pony neighing] what? hey gary. oh. what's with the dog-sized horse? i'm crazy stressed trying to figure out this complex trade so i brought in my comfort pony, warren, to help me deal. isn't that right warren? well, you could get support from thinkorswim's in-app chat. it lets you chat and share your screen directly with a live person right from the app, so you don't need a comfort pony.
we are watching shares of netsuite now trading higher by about 4%. tomorrow oracle offered 1.09 a share. t
row price has been against the deal saying netsuite is worth much more. they had put up the number 133. now there is skepticism as to whether the shares would be tendered. that expiration is tomorrow. we are seeing a lot of volatility in the stock. it had indicated that sub133 would be acceptable but oracle said that 109 was the final offer. >> we don't know what is driving this move right now.
this is all sort of interesting stock movement ahead of the expiration. >> i love this. i was thinking last night and i tweeted out don't tell the score. what a different day it is going to be. the chicago papers say the cubs won the world series. the cleveland papers say that the indians lost on november 3. so what date? maybe the best world series game of all time. what date will this go down? >> has to be the local date. >> they are different. >> if a historic event happens in europe you go with that date. >> eastern time when the ball is pitched. >> sports talk radio will be debating this. i love it. talk about a stock that is on the rise. today the highest rising stock
in america is theo epstein. the guy who ended the curse when he built boston red sox about a decade ago. >> thanks for watching "power lunch". >> "closing bell" starts right now. welcome to "closing bell." i'm kelly evans at the new york stock exchange. >> and i'm michael santoli in for bill griffith. kind of a quiet day. a little bit of anxiety after several days of losses. facebook taking a hit after weak guidance. we have -- >> and investigating wells fargo sales practices and the bank is -- we have more on the developments coming