tv Fast Money CNBC November 3, 2016 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT
some part thoughts here? >> starbucks is a good one. all these name brand stocks have had trouble, whether it's nike. i want to hear about their report. >> no one needs a good record better than hillary clinton, that will solidify her standing in the polls. >> that was a great pivot from cats and birthdays to the substance of the calls. "fast money" starts now. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq markets, overlooking new york city's times square, i'm melissa lee. tonight on "fast," that man right there, david stockman, says sell everything and sell it now. he's here with his boldest call yet. plus it's an earnings extravaganza, all on the move in the after hours session. starbucks up just slightly after its report, near its 52-week lows. we'll talk about estée lauder,
mcdonald's, clorox, all near their 52-week lows. what are these stocks telling us about the consumer and what's holding the consumer back? guy ad dadamadammi. . >> the u.s. consumer will always spend, as long as they feel good about things, as long as the stock market goes up, i think the consumer feels that everything is okay. now you've seen some hiccups over the last couple of months or so, on top of which we have this election coming up that we talk about all the time, and people are racheting back a little bit. the health of the consumer has always been in question, i submit. >> let's not put the health of the stock market on the health of the consumer. just because stocks are going down, it doesn't mean a lot of these companies are failing. starbucks, we'll get into the numbers in a second. the comps for this company were ridiculously high going into
this quarter. this is a company that's still growing. u.s. same-store sales at 60%. >> when i look at the chart, dunkin' donuts look better. >> we're talking about the consumer. the more important parts, things that require real discretion to the purchases, they're doing at least what they've been doing. they're certainly not falling on their face. stocks are expensive. that's the difference. don't make the stock market the consumer. >> and i'm not trying to make the stock market the consumer. what i am saying, though, is consumer confidence to me, the only metric to measure consumer confidence, in my opinion, is the stock market. as long as the stock market is going higher, the consumer feels good. when the stock market shows kinks in the armor -- >> the consumer confidence is down. i'm saying, you have a direct relationship there. consumer confidence has been coming in. housing starts have been coming in. there's a lot of numbers.
gdp, this is something where the jobs have basically been the only thing that you can say are positive on a longer trend. >> karen, what do you think? >> i'm very confused by the consumer, the market action. you have a lot of anecdotal bad reports, bad earnings. that's one thing. you have fear about the election, which i really believe does weigh on some things like a whirlpool, for example, someone who is thinking about buying, you know, a durable good like that. >> a big ticket item. >> or a u.s. auto. that i can see. some of the other stuff like dunkin' donuts, i don't really get. it's very noisy. yet fundamentally it would seem to be that the consumer should be in a really good place. >> right. >> they're employed, right? gas is not expensive. they can get a reasonably priced mortgage. it's very confusing to me. so i'm not going to put new
money to work, i'm not going to sell the things that i own. i am nervous, look at tonight, go on p gopro. >> we'll hear from starbucks' howard schultz later on. in july he said the profound weakening in consumer confidence because of the election was a reason for the difficulties. then you mentioned dunkin' donuts' nigel travis, take a listen, he said it's a cocktail of factors, changing in gas prices, changes in food staff regulations, and of course the overwhelming dampening of the presidential election. we should be pleased when it's past. >> whoever gets elected, half the country will be unhappy. >> but certainty. >> you also have certainty that for the next four years half the country is going to be really upset and the other half of the country will feel really good. >> we'll get a slug of retail
earnings in the coming weeks. are we going to keep hearing the impact of the u.s. elections dampening on consumer confidence, on consumer spending? this is a big opportunity to blame it on the election. >> it is. so why not blame it on the election, if you can hide behind it? maybe it's true. i think partially it's true for bigger ticket items. and partially it's not true. if they miss on execution. >> health care costs are up 30%. that's a huge chunk of disposable income. that health care cost comes every month that people are covering. it's huge. >> when we talk about the consumer, though, we have to think about the things they want to be spending their money on. ultimately i think that they are spending that. to say that the elections are going to change that dynamic, the country is in did he say
tre distress over this election. there's an opec meeting, there's a fed reserve. these are things driving markets. valuations are not where they're supposed to be. having said all that, this third quarter we had earnings in positive terrible. the comps are terrible going forward, that means they're easy to beat. it's all relative, what should you pay for stocks? the consumer is not dead. >> so you buy in the face of fear? >> you have to draw a line in the sand, what are your levels. i know that we're pretty steadfast in terms of where the mart is going. 2130 is the level. as long as it stays above 2130 in the s&p, it's fine. there's a good chance we'll see the levels steve is talking about unchanged, 2140 or so. nothing in the last couple of days has changed that. >> when you look at an under armour that everyone through out and everyone was looking for growth and they matched up against nike and it was overpriced on a valuation basis, for me when you look at under armour, when you look at
something that could bounce, i think under armour can bounce. if the overall market goes down, consumer stocks go down with it. >> i think people are overreacting to supply numbers going into an opec meeting when all these producers are incented to produce as much as possible. this gets you back to decent valuations, not great. dividends in a world where things are not going up that much faster, i would go for energy. >> karen? >> foot locker, under armour i still like. coor's, my biggest bet. fossil was a miss, not usually great for coor's. the valuation is still attractive even with all this noise. >> speaking of election jitters, our next guest says there's only one thing to do ahead of the election. sell everything.
david stockman is you author of "tru "trumped!" david, it's good to see you. >> if you don't sell before, certainly do it afterwards. >> you're saying sell everything no matter who gets elected? >> yeah. everything changed at 1:00 p.m. last friday afternoon. we are now in watergate 2.0, with tea pot dome thrown in as a bonus. government is going to be totally paralyzed regardless of who wins. if hillary wins, it will be very bad. if trump wins it will be worse. and for six months or even longer, i think there will be acrimony, there will be brinksmanship, there will be paralysis, there will be a swarm of house committees doing investigation from all of these wikileaks and all of this e-mail business and on and on. and therefore, it's important because there will be no baton handed off from the fed to fiscal policy as we slide into recession. the reason i believe we're sliding into recession is that i
follow the irs, not the bls. and the bls can model all the jobs they want. irs said that last year, the fiscal year ended in september, revenue was up 1%. in the last quarter, it was down 4%. and in the five months since may, even payroll withholding was barely keeping even with wage inflation. that means the hours aren't happening out there even if the bls thinks they are. if you have a paralyzed congress, if you have a fed out of dry powder and you have a market that's basically been shopping for 700 days, we're in the same place today as we were in december 2014. then you have to ask, there's massive risk, and what's the possible reward? >> when you say sell everything, let's be clear about this. every asset class, you're saying, bonds, stocks, gold, real estate? >> i'm not saying gold.
what i'm saying is the markets are hideously inflated. >> how hideously? when somebody comines on and sa sell everything, that can only mean they're seeing some horrible, horrible impact, some horrible drawdown to come. what would that be? >> the markets are delusional that the business cycle is ended and as soon as we drift into the next recession -- >> 25% drawdown on markets, david? >> yeah, there could be a 25% drawdown. let's look where we were on december '14, earnings were 106 per share. i think you noted they're up a tiny bit in the third quarter, no $90 per share. >> but selling -- sorry. >> wait a minute. if they're down 16% from where they were from the last time the s&p 500 was at this point. therefore the market multiple has gone from 19.5% then to
23.5% today, during a period when no one thought donald trump was running, when no one was chanting "lock her up" about hillary, when no one understood how craven the fed was. why would you value the market at an all-time high? >> what's your time horizon? who is going to ring the dinner bell when it's time to come back in? >> i think the dinner bell was running 1:00 p.m. last friday afternoon when the comey investigation was announced. and the market is now, you know, kind of struggling to stay alive. i think this election is going to be a shocker. it's very likely that you'll end up almost with a stalemate or an electoral college that's 10 or 20 votes apart, demands for recounts, uncertainty about -- >> we're at eight supreme court justice, by the way. >> i think that is not even
remotely priced in. the idea that -- >> what about -- maybe it's not going to be as bad as we think it is. >> it will be worse. >> no matter who is elected, why would you think that worse? the investment community would prefer nothing like a lopsided government. >> everybody time somebody comes on your show and talks about the baton being handed out, add that to a recession that's likely to happen in the next year and you have no ability to do that. i think the market will panic, okay? it's just that simple. secondly, you have a debt ceiling that's expiring in march. in other words, i like divided government, i'm a libertarian, i hope they do nothing, okay? but unfortunately there is a debt ceiling expiring in march. if you have a paralyzed, acrimonious government, you're going to have a debt ceiling crisis every month as far as the
eye can see. >> last quick question for you, david. in your personal portfolio, are you in cash? >> yes, i'm mostly in cash. i have gold and i'm getting real short. >> okay. david, thank you. thanks for stopping by. david stockman. >> the last time mr. stockman was here, to his point, the market was exactly where it is now. it's not like he's missed to the upside or the downside, the market has been trading sideways. my warning signs would be this. if the financials start to roll over in the form of the xlf, if deutsche bank has a new leg lower which it appears it's on the verge of, and if the russell continues to make a move towards the low one teens, then the levels of the s&p are really in play. i think 2140 is the line in the sand. >> i thought your point about divided government was interesting in that history shows that divided governments are actually good for the stock market. >> think we've been burned when president obama had control of everything and then you allow the candidate or the president to be second-guessed. but when you look at what david
said, he talked about gdx, gold up 15% in the last two weeks or so, you or i will see infrastructure spent. >> it's so difficult to judge the election, time the election, judge what the outcome will be, and then we're not in a vacuum in the united states, there's policy all around the world that also is a fly in the ointment, i don't know if that's good. i cannot trade my portfolio on how the election will turn out and all the ramifications because of it. still ahead, believe it or not, only five stops are responsible for most of the gains in the dow this year. plus starbucks up slightly after hours. we'll hear from ceo howard schultz about the strength of the consumer and next week's election. is janet yellen's fate hanging in the balance of the u.s. election? a top economist says yes and it would be just the start of
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more than 3/4 of its gains are thanks to five companies. unitedhealth, ibm, caterpillar, chevron, 3m have each contributed to the dow. there are more gains ahead for these market leaders. or are there? is the market too heavy? >> they always say this, last year they said it was about amazon, about google, gilead. now it's this group. if you look at the group, the only one that's not rolling over is chevron. so it looks like they're reflectivity of what the overall market is doing. it's just the nature of the market. people go for large cap stocks, they go for names that they know. so is it a problem? it's always a problem. this is nothing different than it's always been. you have to think, is the market going higher or lower, act accordingly? i think short term it is lower. >> are any of these stocks worthy of leadership? i look at five stocks out of a
30-stock index and think, 20% of the index is doing okay, this is five diversified stocks. i've got health care, energy, industrial, tech. ibm doing a little bit better, that's a big surprise. there's nothing about this -- i think the fact that markets are moving down, we're looking for reasons to sum it all up and say there's more risk than there actually is. >> a lot of these are dogs, bouncing back. >> a lot of them have high dividend yields. steve has said a number of times, people are looking for dividend yield. it doesn't mean the companies are doing well. caterpillar will tell you flat out things aren't going well, the stock has been a monster this year. it doesn't mean the business isn't doing well. >> i would make an argument that a lot of caterpillar's move is the pessimism in the stock. no one's believed in the stock.
how many people thought, it's my big short, is caterpillar? it's been a bad short and a lot of people have been piling on it. >> if the ones that went up didn't go up, the market woof gone up. it's counterintuitive, i don't really get that. there's sort of a disconnect between what's happening in the companies and what's happening in the stocks. those are kind of two very different things. it's hard to gauge, you have the reversion to the mean, i think we see that often over time. i can't extrapolate this. i'm not sure what we're supposed to read out of this. is that a danger sign because the ones that are doing well -- okay. so but does that mean revert or does that mean others may rise as well? i don't know. so i don't know how to read that as -- i wouldn't jump in and make that -- all right, that's terrible for the market, five stocks went up. >> right. are any of these stocks buys? >> chevron. >> unitedhealth.
>> unitedhealth is interesting. >> anthem has not worked this year. yesterday, but not this year. >> we had a nice pullback in energy stocks. chevron is probably best of breed, better run, better capex. check out all the afterhours moves, still ahead, reacting to earnings. we'll get the headlines from those conference calls. i'm melissa lee, you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. here's what else is coming up on "fast." >> i believe the fed is political, beyond anything i would have thought possible. >> announcer: that's why a top economist says if trump wins, it could be lights out for janet yellen. the fed as we know it. she'll be here to explain. plus -- >> may the force be with you. >> suddenly traders are betting that the force will be with disney when it reports earnings. we'll tell you what has them so bullish, when "fast money" returns.
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welcome back to "fast money." news on herbalife, let's get to seema mody. >> according to the most recent filing, carl icahn increasing his stake in herbalife, we're looking at shares spiking in extended trade. this of course comes after the company reported earnings that beat expectations and also announcing a ceo transition. back to you, melissa. >> thanks, seema mody. this involves a battle, if you will, between some big egos on wall street. what's your take on this latest development? >> it's personal, is my take.
it's a personal thing. carl owns 23% of the company now. at what point does he just buy herbalife outright? for me it's just become sport to him. >> i totally agree, it seems to have become sport for him. i don't know if it was the earnings that made him increase his stake or if he feels a pressure point, i have no idea. but i actually don't think it's fully based on a valuation of herbalife at these levels. >> if the conviction is based upon i want to put the screws to somebody -- >> there is a 37% short interest which adds to a little bit of the win, long side. >> we've got another news alert, new poll showing the election is tightening in three key states. eamon javers has the latest. >> some tightening and widening in three traditionally red states. these new nbc/"wall street
journal"/marist polls. georgia, trump 45, clinton 44, johnson 8% in the state of georgia. in september donald trump was up two points in the state of georgia. so that is an area where you might see some tightening and maybe hillary clinton snatching that traditionally red state away from donald trump. in arizona however, trump 45, hillary clinton 40, johnson 9, stein 3% in arizona. trump was ahead by just two points in arizona back in september. so this looks like a bit of a widening in arizona. that's a state that democrats had hoped to capture. on tuesday hillary clinton campaigned in arizona, as recently as wednesday night, they've been spending a lot of resources there, the democrats have. this indicates, though, that that spread is widening a little bit. we'll have to see where things shake out on tuesday. finally, in texas, a monster margin here for donald trump, 49% to hillary clinton 40%, johnson at 6, stein at 2%.
overall, melissa, analysts all sort of are concluding right now what we've got is a tightening race here, but hillary clinton still maintaining a lead nationally. the expectation among many pollsters still that she has the momentum she needs to get to 270 elect ragg electoral college votes on tuesday. this race has been unpredictable and it will be down to the wire. >> thank you, eamon javers. this election could change the federal reserve as we know it. dana peterson joins us here, dana, so great to have you with us. >> great being here, thank you. >> how could the fed change? >> it's interesting, from both candidates. mr. trump has indicated that he would not re-up janet yellen. he's vehemently expressed her monetary policies post-crisis.
while we don't think he would spend the political capital to oust her before february 19th, he likely would not nominate her again. mrs. clinton has not been very forthcoming in terms of whether or not she supports yellen. there is a likelihood there could be big changes at the fed. certainly clinton would like to see fewer bankers at the regional bank. and also she would prefer to see greater diversity in gender and ethnicity. she would also prefer to see academics and community members as being part of the fed as well. >> this shift in terms of member of the federal reserve would happen just through normal -- i don't want to say turnover, right, because there are a couple of seats that are coming up in december anyway. so would they just use those straightforward channels to put their people in or are there extraordinary ways for them to exert even more change onto the fed? >> all theoard positions are actually political appointees. there are two open seats that need to be filled.
but in terms of chair yellen, her position -- well, her term is up in 2018. and so certainly the next president can fill those two outstanding positions, but would also have to consider who takes the helm in 2018. >> so clinton, you're talking about diversity, in terms of the policy of a clinton fed, what would that be? >> that's a great question. indeed both republicans and democrats have been calling to audit the fed, meaning that not only with the fed's operations and activities, also their monetary apologies and decisions. we know mr. trump would definitely want to audit the fed. clinton, we're not really sure, although there are definitely some people in her camp who believe there should be greater oversight. that certainly is a risk with mrs. clinton as well. >> just a quick question. if there trump was elected, let's play the game, what happens to the fed? forget about the fact that, you know, he would look to -- do you think there would even be, under his administration, a federal
reserve? he's so off the wall, he could say we're going to abolish it entirely. do you guys even think about things like that? >> that's a great question. actually from soundings from mr. trump, it doesn't sound like he would get rid of the fed, but he would want it to be more accountable to congress. >> it seems he wants it to be accountable after the election, after, maybe not, let it go. >> should the fed -- is it too political and when did it lose its independence? >> that's a great question. chair yellen and others have come out and said by no means is the fed political, it's apolitical. politics never comes into it. >> of course. [ laughter ] >> dana, seriously, if the fed were apolitical, they should have raised rates the other day. for them to anticipate that the markets could have a volatile reaction because of the u.s. elections is in itself political, isn't it? >> you could definitely make
that argument. the fed did say they want to see some further evidence that the economy is ready for an interest rate hike. they said the case for tightening is strengthening but they didn't say the case was there. they're encouraged by what we've seen in the labor market, as well as inflation. but certainly the fed said that they did downgrade their expectations for consumer spending. they're not actually there. >> okay. dana, thanks for stopping by, we appreciate it. dana peterson. tomorrow we've got a jobs report. >> and we heard from david stockman that the jobs report may be not everything we've seen them to be. i do believe the fed is constantly political. for me, i think that no matter who is elected, gold still catches the bid that it has this week, last week, continues going forward. >> real quick, so trump wins the election, let's just play the game, they raise in december. the first thing he's going to say is, they waited for me to
get elected, raise rates, they're going to bury the market, look what they're trying to do to me, it's political. if he doesn't get elected, right, why did they wait until december after the election? >> damned if you do, damned if you don't. >> if they're not political, they don't care what he says in december. >> in terms of acrimony going forward, that will be a narrative, i believe. >> an interesting scenario. if they raise in december and the markets are okay. >> who has been patting the fed on the back the last couple of years? nobody. they're an easy target. you put another fed in there, you completely change the board, what are you going to do? they're economists, they're well-trained. >> it is the question, because you just said they're an easy target. the target is they're supposed to have -- they've stated china. they've stated global growth. they shouldn't worry about global growth. they shouldn't worry about biotech either. russia, anything.
>> we don't think about -- >> they've made themselves an easy target. >> all right. the bottom line is people have had the feds as a target for a long time. i'm not here to defend the fed. i think the fed three or four leaders back was the biggest problem. >> that's the bottom line. >> no question that the fed has got a target on it. >> let's check out after-hours movers. starbucks, cbs, starbucks, gopro, all very volume atiatile. much more "fast money" right after this.
welcome back to "fast money" on this very busy night for earnings. julia boorstin, josh lipton, susan, we'll get to you a little bit earlier, julia, let's start it off with you. >> cbs on the top and bottom line, reporting earnings of $1.05 a share, seven cents more than expected. cbs accelerating their share
buyback program to purchase additional stock in the fourth quarter. les moonves addressed the proposed recombination with viacom, saying they are looking into a potential merge and her they will do whatever is in the best interests of cbs shareholders. he weighed in on nfl ratings which have raised concerns about the health of the tv bundle. >> obviously there's been a lot of talk about nfl ratings with the bulk of the issues having to do with prime time games. as you know, we do the majority of our business on sunday afternoon where the ratings are a lot more stable. and with this past week, we were up 13%. nfl programming still remains the premier property of all of television. >> moonves was also bullish in a number of areas, saying political advertising and higher scatter ad pricing will draw higher profits in the fourth quarter. he says cbs is less reliant on advertising than it has ever
been as it draws fees from digital revenues. moonves says he wants cbs to be in all of the bundles and skinny tv packages, he sees these new it have services as a great opportunity for the company, guys. >> julia boorstin, thank you so much. how do we feel about cbs? is there an extrapolation in terms of his comments about nfl declines to a disney, let's say? >> what we talked about is that sports are suffering a decline. we talked about e-sports, other things that are eating into the attention span of the consumer. i think that's fine. i think when you look at cbs, you look at a company that on a relative value in the sector looks very attractive. the viacom driveal is a huge driver, there's meet synergies for them. >> cbs for me has had a great year. it's had a lousy couple of years, but beginning of this year was a $45 stock, you see where it's trading now. it feels like given the valuation, given the buyback, i
think this stock has more room to the upside. i don't think it's all that expensive, trades at 11 times or so of earnings, cheaper than disney still. >> you would rather? >> you want to play the game? >> you're out. disney or cbs? >> cbs. >> still out. >> look at espn. people are leaving espn in droves. you could say it's not that big a deal to disney. it's a big deal to disney. >> aditi roy is in san francisco with the latest. >> melissa, that stock is up more than 3.5% after sands beat the top and bottom lines. analysts were closely watching the casino operator's revenues in asia and sands beat the street revenues from reverence coming from the venetian macao and the sands in singapore which
posted $762 million in revenue. the newest casino, the parisian, made 68.6 million in revenue, reflecting its first 18 days in operations. the numbers from macao are important because the region has seen an uptick in gambling revenues after being in the red for two years. some analysts had expected sands to post strong numbers from macao and singapore. these earnings come one day after wynn resorts missed on q3 earnings. >> thank you, aditi roy in san francisco. tim, the same question as last night, was the wynn miss a wynn problem? >> i think it's little bit of both. ultimately you've seen all of these stocks have a huge run on a turnaround in macao. it gets back to valuation. i don't think you need to jump into this story tomorrow. these stocks, if they get back to some of the full levels of
gaming in macao, they'll go a lot higher. you've had this huge rally over stabilization, now gone to growth. i think it's in the price. >> karen, today i was looking at air mez' earnings, as well as gucci's parent company. >> luxury. >> luxury, an uptick in macao gaming. >> i really feel like the corruption trade -- the anticorruption trade, i guess, was going to be short-lived for sure. corruption is alive and well. >> it's here to say. >> it's alive and well. >> can't get enough of what, corruption? >> corruption. >> the stock is plunging, josh lipton has been monitoring that call. >> melissa, remember heading into this call, the stock was down 30% over the past month. investors of course worried
about those new products. and one thing you kept hearing about was availability. gopro initially halted shipments of the new cameras to amazon, there was a pricing dispute between those two companies. with the new drone, karma, what looks like serious limited availability. on the call right now, gopro executives are saying they did experience what they're calling production issues, manufacturing issues. not a whole lot of color on what exactly those issues were. but they are going to negatively impact second half results. and it is going to mean, according to c.o. nick woodman, gopro will have difficulty meeting demand in q4. so difficulty meeting demand in that all-important holiday quarter. i can tell you, analysts on the call are also asking about that relationship with amazon. it is an important one. amazon does account for an estimated 10, 12% of sales. gopro is saying they're back
online with amazon, saying jeff bezos' company remains a great partner. >> josh, in terms of the miss, is that focused mostly on the fourth quarter, holiday quarter, or the third quarter that's just closed? i'm just trying to understand how much they see in terms of a decline in the all-important holiday quarter. >> yeah, i mean, listen, the miss in the holiday quarter is obviously the street is focused on. it was a miss in terms of their guide. the issue they're talking about on the call was, listen, woodman's point is it's not a demand issue, demand is strong, we simply had manufacturing issues, that means i can't make enough of these new cameras and enough of these drones to meet that demand. it's a little different than we heard at the q4 session, then the problem was there was too much supply, now the problem is not enough supply. >> got it. thank you, josh lipton. whatever. that would be an execution issue as well. that's not the first time
they've had an execution issue in terms of making sure the product is the on the shelves. >> it is better to have a demand be there than not be there. you wonder, i don't know that that demand is ever green. >> the crux of the problem, the hardware. the stock is down big. it's got huge shortages, which should be bullish, but it's too dependent on hardware. they never translated into a social company. it's a hardware company. you can't buy it. >> i wouldn't short this thing. i have they have balance sheets, et cetera, the competition has never been more fierce. i mean, we said this two years ago. it's even worse now. i wouldn't. >> here is a last would you rather of the day. again, to guy adami, gopro or fitbit? >> las vegas sands. >> i'm not listening to you. >> fitbit to me, it traded down
30 something percent on monster volume. there is a shot at capitulation in fitbit. i don't think you've seen it in gopro. playing the game, fitbit. we'll hear from starbucks' ceo howard schultz on the strength of the consumer. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. hing? it's a great school, but is it the right the one for her? is this really any better than the one you got last year? if we consolidate suppliers what's the savings there? so should we go with the 467 horsepower? or is a 423 enough? good question. you ask a lot of good questions... i think we should move you into our new fund. ok. sure. but are you asking enough about how your wealth is managed? wealth management, at charles schwab.
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>> we were up 5% initially, now we're higher by .7%. starbucks shares initially bend from the announcement they were going to hike ditchevidends. it was a third straight quarter that starbucks has missed global comparable sales. i think that's what investors and analysts have zeroed in on. have we hit peak u.s. starbucks sales? growth better than expected at 6%. yum and mcdonald's reported their sales took a hit in china after the south china sea ruling against the country.
china is integral to starbucks' growth strategy going forward. howard schultz is on the earnings call. >> china once again produced record revenues and profits and strong sales growth in q4 and fiscal 2016. there are countless examples of western companies and consumer brands that tried and failed to achieve relevance in china. >> starbucks' digital strategy tied to their loyalty program, membership was up 18% from last year. mobile payments now represent 25% of all transactions. that's up from 20% just a year ago. to give you some perspective on what that means, that's a tripling from last year. back to you. >> one more question. any mention of the u.s. elections and the impact on the consumer? >> not that we heard so far. we're going to get back to that, but nothing in politics so far. >> thanks, susan lee in the
newsroom for us. what do you think? >> i don't think that the driver for the stock is china right now. i think it's getting same store sales back in place. 5% is fine. i think the comps are a lot easier for these guys. i think they reaffirm 15 to 20% eps at 25 times, this stock now actually has a reasonable multiple on it. i own the stock. i've owned it throughout. i've trimmed here and there but ultimately i still think this company is executing. >> the stock is down 12% this year, it gave up whatever gains, pretty much, after hours. >> understanding that not a lot of volume, but that would concern me. you've got the bounce, the commensurate bounce given the quarter, i guess. people say it's three-quarters in a row, maybe they're saying the valuation, tim things it's reasonable, maybe it's not as reasonable as it used to be. call me crazy, this is familiar to me. mcdonald's a couple of years ago, mcdonald's was going ballistic for a long time, all of a sudden they hit the wall, then for the next six to nine
months the stock traded sideways to lower because they were not operating as well. then they turned it around. star juxtapose babucks has to h turnaround point. >> it's been on a declining trend line. when i look at dunkin' donuts, it's better, and the stock is still terrible. i don't know if it's coffee across the board, or something in the space. starbucks to me looks like it wants to be sold. it's oversold right now and can become more oversold. >> it's a great, great company. there's a long term horizon, valuations come in, but it's not yet, wow, here is an amazing chance to buy starbucks, an excellent company at a great price. it's not quite there yet. >> starbucks' president and coo, kevin johnson, will be on "squawk on the street" tomorrow morning. hey, mike. >> normally what you would see is a 3.4% move. that's what we've seen historically going back ten
years. this time we're actually expecting a slightly larger one, a 3.7% move. we saw mostly bullish activity, 96 1/2 calls, buyers paying 90 cents, above 97.40 by november expiration which is actually going to be the week after. one of the reasons we're seeing higher volatility is earnings related. partially because we've gotten figures from six flags and we've seen some media stuff coming out of fox, cbs. this is the situation, stocks trading at lower valuations historically, maybe to the upside. >> are you on disney? >> i am not on disney. the ultimate level to protect against is 86 bucks. i do think disney is on such a consensus sell or short. >> what do you think on disney? >> valuations have come down, it's still expensive to its peers in my opinion. they better get a good quarter now. i would rather wait for the
report and see what happens. hope they report a bad level and buy it then. >> or buy it higher. >> or risk 1%. >> excellent advice. >> how about you, mike? >> you should do it on a tv show on fridays at 5:30. >> is that the name of the show? >> it's called option action. mike, thank you. mike coe. options action friday 5:30 p.m. eastern time. all right. still ahead, steve grasso tells you the stock he is buying that will be a winner regardless of who wins the election next week. more "fast money" straight ahead. [pony neighing] what? hey gary. oh. what's with the dog-sized horse? i'm crazy stressed trying to figure out this complex trade so i brought in my comfort pony, warren, to help me deal. isn't that right warren? well, you could get support from thinkorswim's in-app chat.
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around. >> got to congratulate the cub fans. you watched the game last night. >> congratulations, fans of the cubbies. wow. >> fireeye, not a great quarter. >> thanks for watching, see you. see you back here at 5:00 for more "fast." "mad money" starts right now. my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to save you some money. my job is not just to entertain but to educate and teach you. figure out how to deal with this market. so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. you know what's the most important currency in this business? not sales, not earnings, not orders, not anything like that. for investors, no