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tv   Worldwide Exchange  CNBC  November 4, 2016 5:00am-6:01am EDT

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good morning. it's jobs friday. we'll talk expectations and what the number could mean for the markets, the fed and even the presidential election. earnings central, starbucks shares rising on better than expected quarterly results. a move to hollywood. dalian is buying dick clark productions. the "worldwide exchange" begins right now. ♪ good morning. welcome to "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. happy friday.
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i'm sarah. >> i'm will. happy friday as well. it's new music friday, you may not know the song, but know the voice of -- >> bon jovi. >> it's called "come up to our house." >> new music friday. the global markets, we are coming off a series of losses for u.s. stocks. they have been down every session in a row. a mixed picture this morning. that didn't last, though, at this time yesterday, where we saw stocks finishing lower. s&p futures up a half point. futures down 4.5. nasdaq futures unchanged. no yield. there's been buying of treasuries this week and of global safe haven sovereign bonds. it pushed below 180. we are at 179. it's not super low historic
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yields, but we have broken the trend of yields moving up, which we were seeing up to this week. >> we should mention the gap in yields between u.s. and european yields significantly narrowed. that's a reason why we have seen selling of the u.s. dollar in relation to that spread, 165 base sis points between the ten year and the u.s. and germ any, it's the lowest since september. we have seen selling of european. more pronounced selling than we have seen in the u.s. down 1.8%. european, before today's trade, down 3%. if we look at the european markets, the point for the week as a whole, 4.. yes, we are seeing selling here in the u.s. but more pronounced elsewhere in the world. germany down 1%. the pound rallied. down 2% today. let's have a look at asian
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trade, which has seen selling this week. the nikkei down 3%. it was closed yesterday. hong kong and shanghai more muted. they are hit hard on the stronger yen among the losers today. the broader picture, oil at a one-month low after sell offs this week. wti crude rebound this morning a tenth of a per cent there, 44.70, and gasoline prices under pressure. this is the market on the opec meetings ahead of the meeting on the 22nd to follow through with the freeze or not in production. they saw a build. it shows there's still a lot of oil and demand continues to be a question mark. >> this is a worry. we haven't had a strong dollar
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and it's 8% decline on the week as a whole. it's below the barriers above 50. 50, went below, 47 another one, now 44. >> you mentioned the dollar has been weaker all week long. this morning, getting stronger, not moving much against the euro. it's back to 1.11. a weak dollar and stronger safe haven japanese yen. the pound having the best week, up 2.5%, the best week in months after the high court, i would say surprise decision. the market was caught off guard. >> certainly surprise decision. there's a long way to go before brexit and brexit, when it comes is going to be softer on the heart. >> look more friendly. gold, it's been the chart of the week. gold rising on the increasing odds, i would say, of a trump
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presidency. the uncertainty about the outcome of the election. $13.02 above the level. we'll see which direction we go, could be the jobs report. >> the downside, pause yesterday. it was the pan that was the big mover. monday to wednesday, a big move down in the dollar. not so much yesterday and today. investors pulling money out of u.s. stock and bond funds. the taxable funds outflows of $7.7 billion. money market funds took over $22 billion in during that same period. >> today's top market story is the october jobs report and landon dowdy joins us with three things to watch in that won. morning, landon. >> happy friday. it is jobs friday with october jobs out at 8:30 a.m. eastern.
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here are the three things to watch. unemployment expected to tick down to 4.9% with the u.s. expected to add 173,000 jobs last month. that es up slightly from the 156,000 added in the previous month. second, the sectors, job growth is expected to remain strong with health care and professional services providing a bulk of the gains. however, energy and trade sensitive manufacturing remain under pressure with the losses in manufacturing to continue throughout the year. the third thing, wages. average hourly wages, 0.3%, which could be the green line to normalize rates again. >> thank you for that. beyond the jobs reports, a few items on the agenda. september trade deficit is out at 8:30 eastern. federal officials are speaking as well. dallas fed president, rob kaplan and stan fisher taking part in a
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panel discussion at the imf. hathaway's third quarter results are out. that's the big one today. starbucks fourth quarter beat revenue. they missed targets for the fourth straight period. they say the election is weighing on consumer spending. china was a bright spot something howard schultz talked a lot about. listen. >> china has record revenue and profits in q4 and fiscal 2016. there are countless examples over the last decade of western companies and consumer brands that have tried, but failed to achieve relevance in china. >> on a programming note, starbucks coo will be on "squawk box." this company, it's not the first time we have heard it
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highlighted consumer uncertainty, creating a huge environment and the green cups and a sign of unity. it's impacting results. when you wonder about the uncertainty weighing on consumer decisions and the economy. starbuc starbucks, i'm looking at the research notes. it is considered one of the best executers and fastest growers and been down on a series of same sales numbers in the u.s. mid single digit comps expected next year. >> it's surprising we have election fears from a coffee sale. it's not an auto or home sale. a big item. something to watch. a nearly 60% rise in third quarter revenue. the video game making and the four-year outlook to snatch up digital content. the world of war craft sold more than 3 million copies.
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shares there down 3%. cvs' third quarter down. competition from the olympics. ceo leslie says the company is still in the early stages of considering a merger with viacom. >> other stocks to watch, go proreporting a steeper than expected drop. the company's forecast for the holiday season came in short of estimates, hurt by production issues for the newest cameras. falling sales for four straight quarters. look at the stock move down another almost 19%. kraft heinz fell shy of forecast. they will likely raise the cost cutting targets in the coming months. that has been the story with kraft. sands falling, but beat improvements. the casino operator saw a 15%
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rise in what accounts for the bulk of annual revenue. >> up 3%. the biggest events in television by the chinese. buying dick clark productions for $1 billion. it gives dalian the rights to the golden globe awards, the rocking new year's eve. the chinese conglomerate has been on a buying spree in legendary entertainment. >> the justice department nearing possible criminal charges against generic drug makers. they could charge them for price collusion. subpoenas have been sent out to several manufacturers and to some of the executives to find out more information about product pricing and
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communication with competitors. we saw shares of the firms tumble on the news yesterday afternoon in the premarket there. this adds to the political pressure facing these companies and we have seen it in the results so far this season. taro at the bottom down the most, 7%. still to come, a round up of stock movers. >> first, our facebook and twitter question of the day. will the jobs report have a bigger impact on the fed, the markets or the election? weigh in. send us your vote. we're all about the polls this morning on "worldwide exchange." we'll be right back. kag stan is one of the largest companies where we have invested almost 7 billion euros since 1993. the commitment to diversify the economy are important factors.
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welcome. with the febreze car vent clip break out the febreze, and [inhale/exhale mnemonic] breathe happy.
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welcome back. let's get up to speed. slight declines in the market today. could this be nine days in a row of declines for the nasdaq and s&p. down 2.5% for the nasdaq and 1.3 for the dow. you, we have seen significant declines for the day, but not massive. the nasdaq is down 2.5. compare it to europe, it's close to 4% of declines for the week as a whole. let's look at oil. big declines in magnitude. we are down 8% for wti. we are below $45 a barrel as you can see. slightly positive today, a small
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move offsetting a big decline week to date for oil prices. sarah. >> commerzbank swung to a net loss but beat analyst estimates after the large provisions for an extensive overhaul. they expect to make a profit over the full year and shares down to the tune of 2%. bmw reported third earnings that topped forecast. strong sales in europe and china set off a decline in u.s. sales. slight growth in unit sales. profit shares there down a little more than, down about 1.5%. >> that sector in terms of companies outside the uk fearing brexit, they are the top of the list. >> feeling it hard. >> really feeling it. they have the factories in the uk. >> 20% of sales go to the uk. the fall in the pound and trade
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barriers is a fear. it's not just one way in terms of the continent is going to try to make it tough. there are people out there that want it to be free trade. >> now they have hope, a glimmer of hope that parliament gets to vote on it. >> a 1% move in the pound. >> true. >> it highlights where they think it will stand. it's going to come through, take longer and be softer. fitch has put deutsche bank on credit. the ratings agency believes the challenge posed by the sluggish climate will make it harder to grow revenue. they expect more clarify on deutsche's restructuring in the third quarter and some significant legal issues by then. one thing that was lost is deutsche is down 2%. the confirmation of the sale of its stake in the chinese bank, which people were waiting for a long time. it was a 3.5 billion euro boost.
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people were expecting it to go through, but it's been confirmed and the money will be in the bank. >> they vnlt worked out a deal with the doj. >> no. the hope of before the election is 0.1%. >> .1. okay. so, there's a chance. >> there's a chance. like dumb and dumber. a group of u.s. senators saying wells fargo fired hundreds of people for widening the scope of the scandal that was characterized as a retail banking problem. they sent a letter to wells forfo fargo questioning them about the firings. that is the first indication they were affected by possibly affected by the sales scandal. sloan says he has no knowledge of the issues outside the retail bank. shares flat. they got a .5% boost yesterday
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with the new management is outlining. when we come back, the countdown to election day. the latest from the campaign trail as we head into the final weekend before the election. as we head to break, here is the national weather forecast with general carfagno. >> happy friday. a lot of sunshine on this friday. temperatures cooler in the northeast thanks to a front coming through. closer to average in the upper 50s. great weather in the midwest. chicago sunny for the parade and rally in grant park, temperatures in the 60s. we'll stay above average. the rain is still on, actually in the southwest. we had storms causing a dust storm in the phoenix area yesterday. big rain in parts of new mexico for today and parts of texas as well. big rain yesterday in austin. the temperature story is above average for much of the country, especially the middle and the southeast. could hit records along the gulf
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coast. i'm general carfagno.
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♪ we're drowning in information. where, in all of this, is the stuff that matters? the stakes are so high, your finances, your future. how do you solve this? you don't. you partner with a firm that advises governments and the fortune 500, and, can deliver insight person to person, on what matters to you.
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morgan stanley. yeah. well, we gotta hand it thto fedex. glasses. they've helped make our e-commerce so easy, and now we're getting all kinds of new customers. i know. can you believe we're getting orders from canada, ireland... this one's going to new zealand. new zealand? psst. ah, false alarm. hey! you guys are gonna scare away the deer! idiots... providing global access for small business. fedex. welcome back to "worldwide exchange." good morning, let's get caught up on the market action. another soft day in u.s. equity futures. we are looking at futures down 22 points. s&p down one, nasdaq down 4.5.
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for the s&p and nasdaq, if we hold the declines, it's a ninth day in a row stocks have fallen. we haven't seen exactly a move above 1% to the downside on the sell offs. if you look at the s&p 500 and zoom out, we have done damage. s&p closing below a key technical level, 2100. we are going back to lows last seen in july. that was after brexit when you saw a lot more fear. this is more as the traders tell us, a move of caution. you are seeing currencies where the dollar sold off against the currencies like the euro and the pound beating to its own drum. the dollar has been safe all week, trading around the 103. no direction in the currency market this morning. as for oil, big move lower in the price of oil. wti losing 8% this week. a one-month low. a miniboost this morning, we'll
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see if it holds, 46-37. clearly, the price of oil declining on the overall market. energy, one of the worst performing sectors. >> let's move on to politics. your vote is safe. the white house is preparing for possible hacks affecting electricity on the internet and social media next tuesday. tracie potts joins us with that story. good morning. >> reporter: good morning. here is the thing with that. they don't think that hackers would be successful, actually changing the outcome of this election. they think hackers could disrupt election day by taking down power grids or the internet for people who are trying to get to the polls, interfering with public transportation or traffic lights or something like that. that could prevent people from going to vote. they don't think they can actually get in and change or alter votes once they have been cast. >> what can the white house do to prevent this and fight back?
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aren't we waiting for response to russia for what u.s. intelligence officials already called out as interfering in this election? >> reporter: they warned russia anticipating there might be interference. that has gone out to russia. in terms of preparing that, they are not going to talk publicly in detail. in terms of the systems they think may be affected, the government as put out some warnings and there are concerns. yeah, they are on top, they tell us they are on top of trying to protect those systems to be on the lookout for any interference in the systems. not only that, but things like social media. one thing they are concerned about is interference with social media or fake documents going out at the last minute when they can't be verified about one candidate or the other. those type of things might mess with minds of voters as they
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head to the polls. >> in this final weekend, what is the latest on the polls? the last couple days, the momentum behind trump, is it e vated a little bit? >> reporter: not necessarily. we looked at red states, he is ahead in texas, as you might expect. he's ahead by five points in arizona where hillary clinton is really been making a pitch, especially for latino voters. looks like, according to the polls, she hasn't ellipsed donald trump there. the state of georgia, the deep south, traditionally a red state is statistically a tie. looking at the map, 66.2% for hillary clinton. 33.8% for donald trump. this has really changed what we have heard from donald trump on the campaign trail. he, himself, making fun of the fact advisers are telling him to stay on message. we are getting a different trump than what we saw a few weeks
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ago. >> reporter: what's interesting about the 538 map, they are looking at a couple things. you have the actual percentages national and battleground states, which seem to be obviously much closer than that. then you have the likelihood of donald trump getting 270 electoral votes. remember, in u.s. elections, it's the electoral votes that count. hillary clinton, according to our projections, still likely to get more than 270. donald trump has closed that gab a bit, just in the last week or so. that's what makes this race really so nail biting, just with a few days to go. >> absolutely. nate silver gives a light red to georgia and north carolina. a light blue to new hampshire. they are going to be key. thank you for joining us this morning as always. now to sports, chicago cubs fans can't their celebration when they hold the victory parade for the world champions. it starts at 10:00 a.m. local
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time at wrigley field and heads to downtown chicago. it goes down michigan avenue before heading to grant park. president obama wants in on the fun. he invited the cubs to the white house for another celebration before he leaves office in january. they deserve it. >> have a good weekend. enjoy. congratulations. from baseball to football, the atlanta falcons dominating the duck nears winning 43-28. tampa bay wide receiver mike evans holed in two touchdown catches and made this leaping one-handed grab in the third quarter. he takes a big hit and hangs on to the ball. great stuff. when we come back, jobs friday. kathie lee, at bk joining us on top markets.
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good morning. happy jobs friday. we'll talk about what investors want to see in the unemployment report coming up. futures point to another red start to the day. s&p on an eight session losing streak. >> video gone viral, the craze sweeping social media. it's friday, november 4, 2016. you are watching "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. ♪ good morning.
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welcome back to "worldwide exchange" on cbs. i'm sarah. >> i'm will. i don't know who is singing this, but i hope the lyrics are right. >> dnce. >> that's what it says. i don't know who that is. it's new music friday. th that's the theme. i like that intro. it's going to be a good day. that's what the jobs people hope. that's the big data. let's look at what markets are doing ahead of that. they are, at the moment, suggesting they are not quite going to back what has been an eight-day losing streak for the s&p and nasdaq, a six-day losing streak for the dow. significant momentum behind the selling. we saw a percent of declines yesterday. it sums up with the nasdaq down
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2.5. the dow down 1.3%. a pick up in volatility, not a spike in volatility. >> not a panicked sell off like we saw after brexit. >> increasing caution and uncertainty around the election with more money going into cash, really, than anything else. a bit of buying. >> it's off the table. a lot of traders saying people are derisking, waiting for the results to figure out what trades to put on. >> i would point out, as well, the other factor, year-to-date, a thin layer of leaders in the market. it's not widespread. that's a reason for caution. people, at the end of the year, want to lock in the gains they have made. let's look at the european trade. they are down 4% for the week as a whole in europe. the ftse 100 declining because of the rally in the pound. all in all, europe looking at
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3.5% to 4% decline. asian trade, we saw a sell off in the nikkei. the yen is not strong, but hanover the last couple sessions. the nikkei was closed yesterday for culture day, i believe. we have hong kong and shanghai into the week softly, but not too softly. >> as for the broader markets, oil has been under pressure. wti setting below $45 a barrel, 44.66, unchanged at this hour. gas prices are low as well. there's buying safe haven treasuries. we have seen it in germany and all the sovereign safe haven bonds amid the global equity market sell off. it's put the ten-year yield back. we'll see if it lifts it above 180 or a weaker one.
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78% odds in the fed funds future that is the fed raises interest rates in december. we'll watch the probability as well. >> what is more likely, a december hike or clinton victory? >> in terms of a betting market, a december hike. 538 has clinton in low 66%. >> amazing they changed. >> the u.s. dollar made a move weaker this week against the advanced currency like the euro and the yen. the dollar is a bit stronger against the yen, 103.02. the pound had a good week, the best in several months from the result of getting parliament reapproval, watering it down a bit. gold is strong and had a strong week, above the $1300 an ounce level, $1303, unchanged this morning.
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>> jim cramer tweeting, he can't seibert options than putting money in cash. we have a fed on the table and the election. certainly, the short term, he's bearish and cautious is a better word. >> you have no better sign that the election is creating uncertainty and caution in main street than the starbucks call yeed. howard schultz saying everyone hopes post election, a natural state of affairs in terms of behavior. analysts wanted to see 5%. they have been outspoken as to how the uncertainty is impacting consumers. >> good morning and happy friday to jim, if he's watching. it is jobs friday. the forecasters say the economy likely added 170,000 payrolls. in the last month, unemployment is ticking lower, to 4.9%. joining us from new york is
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kathy lien. good morning to you. it's sort of confusing toss up whether this is a very, very important jobs number or rather because we are closer to a fed meeting or whether because of the e lex, it loses importance at all. >> i think investors want to get past the jobs reports and focus solely on the presidential elections. you can see that by the moves in stocks today. you can see that by the relatively benign moves in currencies. unless payrolls grows by 200,000, 225,000 or more, investors are not going to be impressed. they were impressed by the statements, the federal reserve meeting, they are not going to be impressed by jobs. we had muted job growth. if we get a healthy one this month, i don't think it's going to guarantee a rate hike. plus, if trump becomes the next president and we see significant market volatility and a
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potential slowdown in the u.s. economy, that will effect the fed's decision in december. either way, i think it's really the election outcome that investors want to focus on and i think, after the payrolls report, it will give a great opportunity to derisk, as sarah mentioned and square up, ahead of what will be the most dramatic election in history. >> what is your trade into the election? buying gold, the yen, u.s. treasury, shorting the peso? how do you head yourself? >> i think we have to wait for the payrolls passes. if we are lucky enough, we get a good number, that gives a great opportunity to sell into the u.s. dollar rally. there's three scenarios for the presidential election, one clinton wins, the other trump does. one is a victor, the other accepts defeat. it's dollar negative. i think the risk is going to keep the dollar lower.
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>> is it dollar lower, but not treasury? we saw bond buying this week as risks around the election increase. if we compare it to brexit, huge buying of uk guilt after the brexit vote which did unwind. is that something we can expect here if we get a surprise result? >> i think so. this week gave us a good taste of the potential market we could have next week. a much more magnified degree. treasuries could perform well. the peso should perform terribly. the biggest winner, the euro and japanese yen. this week's q as a guide to next week. >> do you think investors have a good sense as to how to discount a trump presidency? how can you do that? >> not at all. that's why, as you said, using your words, derisking is the best bet. no one knows how the policies
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are going to shape up. when there's uncertainty, investors sell first and ask questions later. i think the natural inclination is to sell u.s. dollars and sell stocks. while they haven't properly -- they don't understand how to discount a trump presidency, they want to be out of risky assets before they are able to assess the impact. >> can't let you go without asking about the pound. >> you know what i wanted to ask. a quick only a 1% rally. would we expect a bigger rally? >> i think so, since carney shifted to a neutral bias. sterling is prime to break the 125 level, it's waiting for nfps or next week, basically. i think the path of least resis tent is higher in the pound for the time being.
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>> fighting back the british pound. >> pay my hotel in february. >> your shopping is 90% of the budget. >> thank you. stocks to watch today. fire eye reporting third quarter revenue 12% beating forecast on demand for cloud-based products. they are projecting a fourth quarter loss. i's not as bad as analysts feared and the stock is shooting higher, up 13%. lions gate, revenue rose 34%. earlier, they announced a deal to buy starz for $4 billion. weight watchers better than expected results. they plan to lean on oprah winfrey with marketing campaigns during the new year's resolution.
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twilio rose shorply helping to narrow the net loss. they are used for apps that let companies interact with customers by text, video and voice. a little bit of a boost after an ugly chart. >> let's move on to the top trending stories. oprah comes up again. her annual favorite things gift list is creating buzz z. she didn't disappoint, adding 100 gifts to the list. highlights, 395 personalized dog blanket. $195 gold high top sneakers and you can find many of the items on amazon.com and use oprah to get a discount. she does it every year. >> i don't know how they get on this list, but this is a gold mine. there's nothing better than having oprah's blessing to buy something. >> what would beon yours, the b
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peso and the yen. >> oprah chose the cincinnati ice cream i was talking about. then sales -- >> enormous picture. i don't have the same effect, but i will make you a wish list. >> is it multisex or girls ideas? >> you can get a dog blanket for any sex or any animal. a new hashtag taking over. the mannequin shachallenge. high school students taking part. all you have to do is freeze mid action and catch the act on camera, like a mannequin. there you go. there you go. you can participate in this mannequin challenge. the camera is not on you. wilfred is doing it. he's taking the mannequin challenge. coming up, the must read stories. be sure to vote. will today's jobs report have a bigger impact on the market or the election? the results keep changing
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around. this is a good question because there are a lot of votes for all three. weigh in, we'll be right back.
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welcome back to this mornings must read. stories catching our attention, markets prepare for a vote that makes brexit look basic. julian writing this article, well worth the read. i'm picking up on one small part
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of it that struck me. it relates to the similarities of the betting markets around the two events. two weeks ago, patty power, a betting company in great britain felt so confident that hillary clinton would win the u.s. presidential election, it started paying people with bets on her victory. big mistake. they did a turn around and reopened the books. odds 2-1 for the republican and 90% of bets on the election have been on trump. i think this is an interesting factor. before the election, the brexit -- so many members, we found out from the likes of others the volume of bets was going on exit but the magnitude was going on remain. that's why the odds were going that way. there were bigger amounts of money going that way. smaller bets are going on exit. that's similar with trump. >> a lot of people give us credit for pointing that out.
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it's a good predictor. >> it's how betting markets work. i's not total change. people were surprised when we pointed that out and might be now. 91% of bets are going to trump. >> i wonder how much of that is people not expecting trump to have any traction at all in this complacency we have seen in the markets and from pundits that trump wasn't a threat. >> 5-1 to 2-1 in the space of six to seven days. huge move. >> it's nate silver's 538 blog and the piece why clinton's position is worse than obama's. this is a must read. it gets into the nitty gritty. mine is more so today, if we had to choose. >> surprised, that point of view. the differences stem from states with white voters without college degrees, in particular, ohio, iowa, inform nevada and m.
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imagine if she were three or four points ahead in ohio instead of behind. that would make her a more robust map. losing new hampshire would not be a problem. she could afford to lose pennsylvania. she can't. new hampshire is important. pennsylvania is a must win for her. the state that is are usually more swing tied polling states like iowa and ohio are firmly suggesting a win for him, according to to polls. >> i suppose it doesn't matter how they get over the line. the comparison, if you are a democrat following a democratic president, how similar is the map compared to last time. >> especially with obama when he got 300 electoral votes. melissa lee joins us from new york with a look at what's
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coming up? >> good morning, i keep thinking of sarah's ice cream from her hometown. >> have you ever had it? >> i haven't. do they call it frozen custard? >> no, that's dichbt. >> that sounds good. >> do a road trip. >> ask joe kernen if he's next to you. he's not. he's getting ready for the show we have coming up. andrew is live from the conference. we'll speak to the ceo of baron and speak to ron baron with interesting thoughts about the solar city deal. he's a long-timeshare holder of tesla. it is a critical investment for them. we have a count down to the final jobs report ahead of the u.s. election. the remaining few days on the campaign trail for both candidates. >> great stuff. we look forwards to that.
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>> see you then. >> they will get the jobs number. it is jobs friday. danielle joins us on set with what to expect beneath the headline number on the expectation and what it means for the market, the fed and the election. stay tuned, you are watching "worldwide exchange" on cnbc.
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welcome back and good morning. the jobs report is due at 8:30 eastern time. the economy likely hadded 173,000 jobs. the unemployment rate is seen as lower to 4.9%. joining us now, president of money strong and former adviser to the dallas fed. good morning to you. beneath the headline numbers, what are you looking for? >> the number one thing is the participation rate this morning. i think y'all would be happier if it stayed up as opposed to
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ticking down if it represented more people rejoining the work force. that's the thing she watches most closely. >> where is the bound that wouldn't derail a december hike. how low would it have to be to change that? >> fed officials say 100,000 is what it is on any given month to keep up with the growth of the population. several months ago, it was 200,000. you have have to see something in the double digits to scare the fed. >> do we have to report the millions of long term unemployed? we look at the headline and the lowest unemployment rate and it's tone deaf because there are clearly millions of americans still looking for work that have given up looking for work and temporarily for reasons due to the economy. the u-6 is a broader measure, 9.6%. >> it is. over the past few months, we
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have ian a complete flat lining suggesting we are at an inflection point. the slowdown in the growth of employment with what we have seen in some of the jolts, that finally peaked and rolled over. i suspect the u6 is communicating a large message. weakness overseas on the political picture. can we see more weakness depending on the result or is that priced in the unexpected? >> we haven't seen the vicks or volatility or uncertainty at these levels. i would venture we see continued weakness. how how do you think about the risks surrounding the rise in probability for a trump presidency? >> i think the markets are not comfortable with it because it is a complete and total unknown. that's markets detest
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uncertainty. he's uncertainty on steroids. that's, i think, what got him so jittery. this is the longest streak for the s&p 500 since 1980. >> do you think it will have an impact on the fed? >> absolutely. i think air k rosengren did not because of the election. i think it would have taken a lot to pull him on to the sidelines. the financial and stability is prevalent in the markets. >> which currencies could be beneficiaries in terms of uncertainty around the world? simple trades like the yen, the dollar sell off against that? >> possibly. we have strengthening in the euro. i was in italy and great britain and we have seen strengthening since i have been home. >> the question is on bonds and whether the u.s. treasury is still the ultimate safe haven if
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we get a risk sell off. this week it's been tame. we pointed out, we haven't seen moves below 1% even though it's a string of eight declines. >> it's been very quiet. we have off 2%, 3%, 4%, depending on the metric you look at. the dow is down, scare people and make headlines. if we start seeing violent moves in the market that line up with where the vicks is telling us the market might be going, i think five, six, seven percent would scare janet yellin. >> still expecting a hike? >> for the moment. the markets are almost 75% probability. it's very, very high. all they wanted to see was something north of 50%. they are there. >> danielle, thank you so much for joining us. >> let's get the results of
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twitter/facebook question. will the jobs report have a bigger impact on, 28 said the fed, 29 the machts, 23% said the election. that does it for us. have a great weekend. you get used to sweaty odors in your car, you think it smells fine but your passengers smell this... eliminate odors you've gone noseblind to for up to 30 days with the febreze car vent clip break out the febreze, and [inhale/exhale mnemonic] breathe happy.
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good morning. the countdown to the jobs report. the final piece of economic data ahead of the election and another report for the fed to consider before that big meeting again in december. the markets reacting to another batch of earnings. the s&p 500 looks to snap an eight-day losing streak. that's the worst since october of 2008. cubs on parade. after winning the world series in what was the most watched baseball game in 25 years when there were like four channels, chicago will shut down today to celebrate. it is friday, november 4th,
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2016. "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ chicago, chicago, that town ♪ chicago -- >> live from new york where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box." >> good morning. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm melissa lee with joe kernen. we are live at the metropolitan house for the baron conference. good morning. what's coming up? >> reporter: good morning, i'm here with ron baron. he is going to sit down with us in a couple minutes and the next couple hours, we are going to get to know the companies and ceos inside his massive portfolio. bar baron, a big investor. we are going to tell you about that and his thoughts on the market, what's going on with the upcoming election. before all that, we want to get back to joe wit

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