tv Worldwide Exchange CNBC November 7, 2016 5:00am-6:01am EST
good morning. the fbi says newly discoffered e-mails doesn't change their probe into hillary clinton. and the dollar is rallying on the news from the fbi. and opec says its committed to cutting output. it's monday, november 7, 2016. and "worldwide exchange" begins right now. good morning. welcome to "worldwide exchange" on cnbc, on monday of election
week. i'm sara eisen. >> and i'm wilfred frost. with just one day to go until the next president of the united states is decided. futures are jumping after we got the headline yesterday. the fbi director james comey said no charges were warranted against hillary clinton after a view of new evidence. if the s&p closes higher today, it will end the s&p's longest losing strike in more than 35 years. nine straight down days. the dollar right now is also rallying pretty hard, especially rallying is the mexican peso where the dollar is falling. but the dollar is rallying against the major currencies like the euro and like the japanese yen. the peso has been highly sensitive to developments in the u.s. presidential race. the dollar is higher against the euro and yen following the fbi announcement. a big move there in the peso almost 2% last night. it was more like 3% higher
potentially correcting the moves we saw last week. it's unclear whether a headline a few days before an election from the fbi director can do any difference when it comes to voting. the damage has been done. >> yeah, it's coming very late. coming back to the u.s. futures market and look at the size of the moves we have seen this morning, i think it is worth pointing that out. we have seen nine straight days of declines for the s&p and the dow. but for the week as a whole, the dow and the s&p were down 2%. the nasdaq down 3%. we're up this morning about 1.6%, 1.7%. a very big move in magnitude relative to the size of the moves we saw last week to the downside. >> in other words, we're catching up quickly to what we lost. the vix is something else to watch, the fear gauge that shot up nine straight days in a row last week. oil prices, wti lost 9.5% last week. so there was some damage done. but as you note, the damage done to the stock market, not as intense as what we saw overseas
even in places like europe. >> we are seeing a bounce-back in europe today also linked to the developments from the fbi and the likelihood that could impact on the outcome. if we have a look at the european equities this morning, you can see nicely higher about 2%. almost 2% for the french index. the ftse 100 at 1.3 kt. the german dax up 1.6%. the british pound soft anything against the dollar for a different reason. prime minister teresa may told leaders she would stick to the time table for leaving the european union. that's the real reason the pound is moving. i would say it's u.s. dollar related and not really linked to the developments on brexit over the weekend. we'll look at asian trade which also is rallying in light of the developments over the weekend from the u.s. election side. the nikkei up 1.6% because we have seen the dollar rally across all currencies seeing the yen fall as well. and hong kong nicely up 0.7%. as for the broader market picture right now, we'll look at the ten-year treasury note
yield. after what we saw, another jobs report that showed steady jobs growth, 161 jobs add in the month of october, slightly below forecasts, but the unemployment rate goes down. and wages rise by the most that they have since 2009. the ten-year yield higher, 1.81. so selling of treasuries, the risk rally is back on buying stocks selling treasuries. the yields go up. we'll see if the trade continues over the next 24 hours. as for oil, it's also getting a boost today after a tough week last week. i mentioned more than 9% slide for wti. more than 8% slide for brent. worst week for oil since january. a boost this morning talking that algeria says opec will commit to its targets to cut production. we'll see what happens into that meeting after the election. that will be one of the big risk events on november 22nd. gold had a strong week last week on all the uncertainty and nervousness building as well as the dollar sell-off. it is on the back burner this morning down 1.5% as we're seeing the dollar rebound. >> i think one thing that's worth pointing to it in terms of
last week as a whole and this morning, the rebound we're seeing, is that a trump victory would clearly see selling of most u.s. assets, the dollar and equities. but actually buying of the bond market. that's what we have seen over the course of last week. >> that's what we saw. we don't know what would happen, but that was a preview we got. >> you have to extrapolate from that. today similarly, the yields are going up again. so clearly that's a good indicator of what to expect if that all plays out. >> there's a lot to read over the weekend. we'll talk to some people and talk about thele pos. the question is what is the impact from yesterday's decision from the fbi. but in terms of what it means for the market and the economy, up went to a citigroup note over the weekend, what does it mean for equities? if trump does win, which would be a surprise according to citi strategists, or if the democrats sweep, for instance, congress, which would also be a negative surprise to the markets, they look for a 5% correction in stocks. they go back to brexit as a reference for that. i know we're always talking about brexit.
cramer mocks us for always talking about brexit. it is fresh on our mind as such a big event for us but clearly that was the last time we saw the political risk go the way the market was not expecting. >> and on that note, deutsche bank out over the weekend on european equities says 5% to 10% drop if trump wins. 5% upside if clinton wins. >> 5% seems like the level. a developing story out of oklahoma. a nagty attitude 5.0 earthquake rattling one of the key oil hubs. the city is 50 miles northeast of oklahoma city. the quake which struck at 7:44 p.m. is concerned that key infrastructure could have been damaged. a spokesman for the oklahoma commission says they have been in contact with the pipeline operators and there are no immediate reports of problems. a passing in the world of politics this morning. janet reno has died at age 78. she was the first woman to serve as u.s. attorney general. she passed away from complications related to
parkinson's disease. she served eight years as attorney general under president bill clinton, the longest stint in a century. and it's a light week for economic data as the market focuses on the outcome of the election. look for consumer credit numbers this afternoon. on thursday we get weekly jobless claims. on friday it's the first read on november consumer sentiment. the bond market is closed on friday for veterans day. and the pace of earnings slows down this week, but we still have some to watch out for including marriott, toyota, viacom, macy's, kohl's and disney. eunice eu is joining us from beijing. how big of a deal is this and what caused it? >> reporter: it's a big deal, sara. the finance minister who was in office for three years was just unexpectedly replaced. and as is the case in chi in, there wasn't a whole lot of clarity as to why this government minister, why the
government ministers generally come and go. and because of that, it's just left a lot of speculation and people are just wondering what it all means. there's some observers and analysts who are concerned that this could mean that the government is backtracking on economic reforms. because he was known here as a man who was quite outspoken and reformed minded. someone who had been credited with pushing pretty hard for fiscal reforms. so there's also quite a bit of speculation that this could just be a part of president xi xinping's tighter grip on the party as well as the government. because not a lot is known about the new finance minister, except for the fact that people believe that he is closer to the president as well as the premier. now, the new finance minister
and the state security minister is also new. what is interesting is he played a key role in the anti-corruption campaign for president xi jinping. china today finally passed a very controversial cyber security law. one in which many international companies as well as ngos have been concerned about. their main concern is about the increase of reinstructions on the internet and also the lack of access for foreign tech companies to this market. now separately to hong kong, the government decided to bar two pro-democracy hong kong lawmaker from taking oath, even that they were elected to the local government. and that is just seen as a sign of presidential xi jinping's clamp down here as well as outside the borders in hong kong as well. >> eunice, obviously there's
power struggles taking place here in the united states as well. is there a lot of focus in beijing on the outcome of the u.s. election? >> reporter: there is absolutely a lot of focus in beijing. there were a couple polls over the weekend, some people we were saying in mainland china, 40% of the people were supportive of trump. there's a lot of speculation about that because some people were basically thinking maybe in the mainland people didn't know who he was compared to many people who were polled in this survey outside of china. in other parts of asia. so there's been a lot of discussion about him. in fact, one thing that is interesting about the outgoing finance minister just to show how outspoken he was, he was one of the very few ministers who actually called trump an irrational type. and weighed in on the discussion of the candidates, which was very, very unusual in china. most of the ministers here choose not to get involved in
other countries' domestic affairs because they do not want other countries getting involved in china's affairs. >> eunice yoon in beijing, thank you. we are watching the u.s. presidential race. we will discuss the potential ripple effect of either outcome with financial times chief foreign affairs economist gideon rackman. and we have an exclusive interview with david tepper joining "squawk box" this morning at 8:00 a.m. eastern.
welcome back to "worldwide exchange." good morning. we'll get you up to speed on the market action. we're seeing bullish action this morning with dow futures up 236 points. the celebration in the s&p as well up 30. and the nasdaq up 78. this is triggered by the fbi confirming yesterday via another letter from james comey to congress that he sees no criminal evidence in the latest batch of e-mails. and that investigation for now is closed. you're also seeing reaction in the currency market. the dollar is stronger against major currencies like the euro, the pound and the yen. we saw the reverse last week as trump momentum soared. but the big mover is the mexican peso. dollar weaker, mexican peso stronger, nearly a 2% move higher. this has been the ultimate u.s. election barometer. the peso has been slammed as trump gained momentum and now
it's giving back a big portion this morning. keep an eye on oil. it was weaker at 9.5% decline for wti. worst week for oil since january. it's bouncing back a bit but still wti is below $45 a barrel up 1.5%. brent is up 1%, just above $46 a barrel. thank you. now politics front and center for the markets this week as american voters head to the polls tomorrow. joining us from london for the international perspective, the chief affairs economist at the london times. gideon, thank you for joining s us. i noticed the latest of your column titles," is donald trump a fascist"? what is your conclusion? >> there is a live debate out there and i simply read through the literature from people like robert paxton, a professor of studies at columbia university and pundits. the opinions differ. i think my general conclusion is
that he has certainly the traits of the authoritarian men you say in the 1930s talking about enemies within, talking about how he alone can create national rejuvenation that comes with a strong man under violence. but you also have to acknowledge there are elements of the fascist moves in the '30s which suddenly are not there, for example, hitler and moussilini had the brown and black shirts backing them. in that sense, donald trump is not a fascist, but he's certainly far more aauthoritarian than bound by democratic rules than most presidential candidates we have seen in the past. >> and gideon, i know there are strong views on this topic in london and other places in the op-eds coming out of the centers rather than out of the united states. what about on the other candidate? how strong are the opinions towards clinton on some of thing
aations you do see towards her. i mean, for one of the better words that trump uses in terms of her being crooked, is the strength of opinion on her with that accusation similar to what we just discussed with trump? >> no. i mean, i found very, very few people in britain or europe who take this stuff seriously, the e-mail, the benghazi stuff, it's odd if you talk to american conservers about it, they feel incredibly strong and emotional about it. but personally, it's hard for me to even remember the details of what she's alleged have done. there is a sliver of opinion in britain that takes on the hatred of hillary clinton and therefor are the pro-trump feeling. and those are the populist right in britain. nigel farrad is pro-trump. the far right leader in france
said she wants trump to win. so the far right or the populist right in europe are pro-trump and therefor inclined to buy the trump narrative on hillary clinton. >> we have been watching like you have at the ft, the reaction in the markets, especially last week and in economics and trying to tell the story for investors of what the risks are of a trump presidency. it does seem like you saw a little more damage in stock markets overseas, like in europe and in emerging markets to this prospect. do you think that is where the risks lie? >> well, yeah, looking at the markets, that may reflect general sentiment. obviously, if something like 45, maybe 50% of americans are going to vote for trump, a lot of americans already normalize that idea in their heads, whereas i think in europe certainly it's still regarded as absolutely extraordinary. almost unthinkable that donald trump could be president. and therefor you are likely to have an emotional reaction in the markets.
but there's also a more economic aspect to it, which is that if you take trump at his word, he's now a protectionist and would impose tariffs on countries like japan and china and therefor really taking an ax to the world trading system. and that would, again, if one took him at his word, be incredibly damaging. >> gideon, thank you for joining us. gideon rachman, the chief correspondent for the final testimonies. >> anecdotedly, i've talked to a lot of voters, this is topic number one at a lot of the cocktail parties. a lot of republicans feel like they can't vote for hillary clinton because of what they call the left is moving toward a european liberal order, going more liberal, the likes of bernie sanders and elizabeth warren, want to push this country towards socialism. i mean, this is sort of the common refrain. and they look to europe as an example that they don't want to be. >> well, it's interesting that you say that because clearly our political divide is conservative versus socialism and not
liberalism. the transition from liberal to social. the thing i find amazing from my first year out here, which came up with the level of the interview with gideon, it's the level of hatred towards hillary clinton. that's what you hear abroad. when you are here for eight, nine, ten months, it is extraordinary to see the swing voters and more moderate republicans, will they vote for hillary outright or just abstain at the top of the ticket? >> are those not telling the truth in the polls, the secret vote, are they pulling the trigger for clinton or trump? >> there's a lot of republicans who could just vote republican down the ticket and for no one at the top. that could be a massive swing factor. we'll have to see. you should go to ohio. you'll get that hatred even louder. >> and buy ice cream as well. >> yes. today's stocks to watch here, hsbc swinging to a third quarter loss hit by the impact of the sale of its brazilian
business and currency headwind. but the bank is also reported a sharp drop or jump in the core capital ratio to nearly 14% easing concerns about the ability to maintain dividend payouts and investors certainly like the sound of that. nissan's second quarter operating profit falling 19%. that was less than expected. revenue was down 12%. rising sales in china, mexico and the u.s. were then offset by a stronger yen and sluggish demand in japan. ryanair raising the long-term forecast by 10% saying it expects to carry 200 million passengers in a year in the next decade. the airline also reporting first half results in line with forecasts three weeks after issues a profit warning. more stocks to watch, oracle says it's 9.3 billion acquisition of netsuite will move forward. the company valued it at $109 a share and that will close today. and alpha beth's adventure
capital disclosed investment in snapping, the parent of snapchat. the investment was made earlier this year but it's unclear how much it was or if it changes snap's evaluation around $18 billion. alphabet also confirmed a separate investment in airbnb up 2%. berkshire hathaway fell 2% but this boosts operating results by 7% which did miss forecasts. berkshire also ended the quarter with nearly $85 billion in cash itself. up 1.3% this morning. still to come, schools and more -- scores and more, we have highlights from the nfl and football realm. we'll be back in a moment. cathy's gotten used to the smell of lingering garbage...
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good morning. welcome back to "worldwide exchange. we'll check in on the markets and we are set to break a nine-losing day streak. we are calling higher by about 1.3% for the s&p and the dow. worth noting that even though we had nine straight days of declines, the s&p last week was only down 2%. so we're scrubbing out nine days or so or a week or so of losses almost a large part in one day. so a big bounce-back expected. that was off the fact that over the weekend the fbi confirmed that it is still saying that hillary clinton has done nothing wrong. i.e., increasing the chances of her victory. the markets are applauding it around the world. if we take a look at european
trade, that's also bouncing back today as did asia earlier. we're up 1.5% in germany. less than that in london. oil is rallying today, but for a different reason. we got news over the weekend that opec is certainly still planning to enforce its production cut. that's helped oil prices up 1.6%. 44.7 on wti. but bear in mind, oil had a terrible week last week down 9.5%. now to sports and "sunday night football." two long-time rivals faced off, the denver broncos and oakland raiders. the game was won by the raiders on the ground. the running back scored three touchdowns, oakland beat the broncos 30-20. they take first place in a division with a record of 7-2. congratulations to them. when we come back, this morning's top stories including a global market rally after the fbi says no charges on newly-revealed hillary clinton e-mails. plus, cnbc's chief
countdown. we're going to get ready for election day, the strategy and the market reaction. plus alex baldwin and kate mckinney break character on "snl" and urge people to vote. i was there at "snl" on saturday. it was awesome. it is monday, november 2016. you're watching "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. good morning. welcome to "worldwide exchange" on a monday. i'm sara eisen. >> and i'm wilfred frost. straight to the market action this morning. a decent rally up 1.6%. scrubbing out a large part of last week's losses. the s&p and dow were down 2%. the nasdaq was down 3%. we have had nine days in a row of losses for the s&p and the nasdaq. almost certainly going to buck that trend today given the size of the moves in the premarket.
almost totally predicated on the fact that the fbi has come out and said it is sticking to its july conclusion that hillary clinton has done nothing criminally wrong. and the market cheering that as you can see. the currency boards also cheering at the dollar rallying against almost all major currency pairs this morning. around about 1.25% against the yen. almost 2% against the mexican peso. and it's rising against the pound and the euro. the european shares similar fashion are rallying pretty nicely. 1.5% to the tune of the day, germany and france up by that much. the ftse 100 less than that, up 1.25%. and the rallies we have seen? japan are offsetting the fall in the yen as we often see the negative correlation between the two. hong kong up 0.7%. worth noting, we are coming off a very volatile day for stocks, bonds and currencies. a volatile week, excuse me. and part of it was triggered by
the revelation, the friday before last friday, that the fbi was sending this letter to congress showing that there are more e-mails to look at. that was clearly seen as a cloud hanging over the markets and over clinton. and so you're seeing a bounce-back to all of that this morning. as for the broader market picture, oil is back on the rise after a bad week last week. if you were an oil bull, down 1.5%. brent is down 1.14%. as stocks sold off last week, that reverses this morning selling up treasuries. the ten-year is up to 1.81. the market was paying much more close attention to the polls and the swing in momentum in favor of donald trump. as for gold, it also came off of a strong week benefiting from all the uncertainty and from the dollar sell-off. no surprise, it's down 1.3% as the dollar goes higher this
morning. right. we're just a day away from the presidential election. the pivotal story of the morning. the fbi completing its review of newly-revealed hillary clinton e-mails and finding no evidence of criminality. john harwood is joining us from washington with all the latest developments over the weekend. >> what we show, a four-point lead for hillary clinton in line with other surveys over the last few days. 44% for hillary, 40% for donald trump, 6% for gary johnson and 2% for jill stein. first of all, donald trump's assets in this race, he's leading among men by a modest marginment he's leading among senior citizens also by a minor or modest margin. he's leading among whites, especially among non-college whites and people who live in rural areas.
but that coalition is getting overpowered by the strengths of hillary clinton. take a look at those. she has a larger lead among women than he has among men. she has a much larger lead among young people than he has among older people. she's got a larger lead among non-white voters than he has among whites and unprecedented for a democrat, she leads among whites with college educations. no democrat has ever carried that group. she's ahead by seven and also has strong leads with people who live in rural areas, excuse me, urban areas, who outnumber those who live in rural areas. so hillary clinton has a greater set of advantages going into this race. you never know what is going to happen on election day. turnout matters. but a lot of the vote has already been cast in states that permit early voting, which is an increasing number of states. so you've got to look at this as a situation where hillary clinton is strongly favored to win. we'll see what happens on election day. >> it's a good set up for us, john. the fbi news leads all the front
pages this morning. even the drudge report put their spin on it, comey comedy clears her again. clearly this is the top story. what will be the impact? >> i think very little, sara. i was talking to a senior hillary clinton advisor last night who said, anybody who used e-mails as a criteria for their decision made up their minds a very long time ago. either for or if you're on hillary clinton's side, you don't think it's a big deal. so what's happened with these stories is, like the comey news that broke over a week ago, there was already a trend of consolidation for donald trump among republicans. and when the comey letter came out, people said, oh, look, donald trump is making progress and linked it to the comey letter. i don't think that had too much to do with it. and i don't think the clearing of hillary clinton by james comey yesterday doesn't have anything to do with this poll because the poll was entirely done before the letter came out. but i don't think it will have much influence in the election
either. we'll talk about it some to the extent that people hear us, maybe that will have an impact, but not a great impact on the race. >> right. and i would think that if she does get elected, it would also remove a cloud hanging over the early days. >> yes. i think that's the more consequential impact is post-election and what sort of attitude that -- if she, in fact, is elected, what attitude do republican lawmakers take? set aside the voting public and it is significant there. >> two threads over the weekend when it comes to demographic that is we're trying to follow here. a surge reportedly in the latino vote, which would bode well for hillary clinton, and yet disappointing numbers from the african-american community. clinton was with jay-z and beyonce and lebron james over the weekend. what do you know about both and how it is adding up? >> people experts in the politics in nevada and florida say that there has been a
significant increase in the number of latinos voting early, including many people who had been categorized in earlier assessments of their likelihood to vote as not very likely to vote. so that is a surprise on the upside for hillary clinton. the downside surprise is african-americans. it's not all that surprising. barack obama was the first african-american president. you would expect him to have extraordinary turnout. but what we don't know is how severe the drop off is. hillary clinton's dominating the african-american vote. so the question is how big is that vote going to be? there is some early signs like in north carolina that it lags behind 2012, but we're not going to know until tuesday night how far it lags behind. >> john, where are the candidates spending the last 24 hours campaigning? and for you, which are the top couple of states to watch for early results from? >> the candidates are traveling around at a break-neck pace. donald trump is going to
minnesota, he's going to pennsylvania, he's going to florida, all these are key states. hillary clinton had that event with lebron james yesterday. she's going to be going back to pennsylvania trying to lock down that state. so very hectic travel schedules. in terms of the states to watch, there are a couple. first of all, if hillary clinton can win florida where some signs suggest she's got a slight advantage, that would foreclose donald trump's ability to get the electoral votes he needs. that's an absolute must-win state for donald trump. so is north carolina. she's done fairly well there. ohio is less crucial. donald trump's been leading and the clinton campaign tells me they don't expect to win ohio. however, if they are able to break through, that would be another road block. >> michigan, john, everyone is talking about michigan. >> yeah, i think that is quite unlikely. hillary clinton's got a lead in michigan. the trump advisor told me over the weekend michigan is likely to break our hearts because it's
one of those that is likely to get close but not get over the hump. and donald trump's problem when he starts with 206 electoral votes, which is the mitt romney total from 2012. if he loses north carolina, then he's down 15 votes from that. he's got to build back up by taking away blue states to get to 270. very narrow path for him to do that. >> john harwood, thank you very much for joining us to discuss all of it this morning. we'll see you often over the next 24 hours. and joining us from washington to talk about the economic fallout from this election, the senior fellow at the brookings institute and senior protest sore of trade policy at cornell university. boy, do we need a trade expert when it comes to this election, eshwar. we have a 33% chance that donald trump will win the presidency. that's according to 5:38 and nate silver's numbers. how are you assessing the risks tied to trade if that were to happen? >> well, i'm just back from a
few days of meetings in beijing. i can tell you every meeting with the government officials, the u.s. elections is topic number one. i wanted to talk about the chinese economy, they wanted to talk about every twist and turn in the clinton/trump race. there is a real concern in china and many other countries that there could be a significant reset in american trade policies, especially towards countries like china. what clinton will expect to get is a small course reset but no fundamental change, although certainly hillary has come out against the transpacific partnership trade agreement. but with donald trump, the real concern is not only much more antagonism versus china but a great deal of unpredictability. so, in fact, what we're seeing in the financial markets and in other instances around the world is the concern that with donald trump, you could have much more fears of protectionism. but there are many unpredictable ways in many parts of the country. and that is what the world is
concerned about. >> eshwar, would there be winners around the world pulling back from global trade and global position, would there be any winners or is everyone a loser? >> if the u.s. would pull back, that would hurt liberal reforms. but now there is a very important difference. once upon a time the u.s. was the dominant economic and political hedgefund. but now china has positioned itself well. china could effectively bring the countries into its embrace by setting up its own institutions and by bringing most of its trading partner countries into its embrace. china's positioned itself very effectively to step in if the u.s. leads the void. so even if sort of rhetoric we
have seen in the u.s. during the election season could damage long-term interests. >> we see it on the republicans and democrats, eswar. and i want to ask you about mexico as we are glued to the peso tracking the polls quite closely and the news flow. i was talking about this with steve liesman, the idea that the peso suffers as mexico's economy suffers if trump gets elected and they reopen nafta or have to build this wall. but, on the other hand, they're getting a huge competitive advantage from this weaker peso which is now near a record low. does that offset some of the weakness they can expect if trump gets elected? >> certainly the big question is whether trump's very inflamed rhetoric about taking actions against mexico, particularly on the immigration front, would really translate into actions. but certainly a trump presidency would create a lot more uncertainty in the relationship with mexico. and it could hurt mexican investment as well as flow of goods from mexico to the u.s.
a weaker peso would offset that to some extent, but the longer-term effects could be damaging for mexico and the financial relationship. so we'll continue to see volatile any the market unless we have a hillary clinton presidency. >> good to get that global economic and trade perspective. eswar, thank you for joining us from washington this morning from the brookings institute. to today's top trending stories, alex baldwin and kate mcginnkinnon are breaking chara urging people to get out to vote. they are arguing about clinton's e-mail investigation when suddenly baldwin breaks character and apologizes for mckinnon for yelling at her and admit how gross they feel and join hands and run out to the streets of new york city. when they get back to the studio, they remind the audience of their civic duty. >> and now it's time to get out there and vote. none of this would have mattered if you don't vote.
>> and we can't tell you who to vote for, but on tuesday we all get a chance to choose what kind of country we want to live in. and live from new york it's saturday night! >> i have to say, i was there live on saturday, it was so much fun. those two guys throughout this whole election have done their two characters fantastically well. and it was very nice to round it off on a positive note. >> did you see them running out on the streets? >> no, they pre-recorded that, that's how it works. but the coolest thing about being there live is seeing the guys offset getting ready to come on. and baldwin in his get-up, he looks awesome coming on. a fun show to see live. >> it certainly was a statement that they ended in unity and told people to get out to vote. >> it was good stuff. and bill murray was there as well with some of the cubs. awesome stuff. >> you're a brit. >> fellow brit. still to come on "worldwide exchange," today's must-reads and later on" squawk box" don't
clinton writes, everything i've done as first lady or secretary of state i have done by listening to people and looking for common ground. even with people who disagree with me. and if you elect me on tuesday, that's the kind of president i'll be. donald trump also with his sales pitch, for 17 months i've traveled this country and met countless americans from every walk of life. your hopes have become my hopes. and your dreams have become my dreams. which both lines are very inspiring. and they are great lines from both candidates. i wonder who wrote them? but they are good lines. and they show -- they both sort of outline some of their policies. trump leads with the fact he'll repeal obamacare and bring down your health care costs. clinton also talking about jobs. they both talk about jobs and the economy a lot in terms of the proposals, but i picked the personal lines from both of them because they both have different things to offer. trump speaks to the fact that he gets massive crowds at the rallies and is positioned as more of a populist candidate who
is listening to people. and clinton drawing on her years of experience. >> i mean, they are both good lines, positive and uplifting as you rightly say. but that's not what this election has been ant. it's a shame, whether they have said the lines on the stump many times, they are not the clips we listen to because they are not the most newsworthy. and i wouldn't say people are voting for the candidate because of the positive factors. it's which person they would rather not be in place. but either way, 24 hours to go. we'll see. >> it's worth a read because for the first time both of their arguments do not involve bashing the other person. they talk about themselves. how refreshing. we are approaching the top of the hour. andrew is joining us from new york with a look at what is coming up on "squawk box." >> good morning. with 24 hours to go, we'll tell you what is on deck. david tepper is going to join us in the 8:00 hour. we are going to try to understand what the markets are doing or will be doing in the next 24 hours. this man has called it before.
we'll talk to him about where he thinks not only the election is going but where the markets are going as a result. later in the show, we have walter isaacson, and kellyann conway will join us 24 hours before the final vote comes in. she's going to make her final case. and then mohammad alerian is going to spell out how the election is going to impact market investors and the economy. that's what is planned for this morning. >> kellyanne conway must not get much sleep. it's amazing. >> she'll sleep on wednesday. >> on party on wednesday. >> or party on wednesday. if you win or lose, i think you sleep on wednesday no matter what. we never sleep. when we come bark, the global markets are in rally mode after the fbi completes the review of the newly-released hillary clinton e-mails and finds no evidence of criminality. we'll talk markets with chad morganlander next. you're watching "worldwide exchange" on cnbc with the dow futures up more than 200 points.
welcome back. u.s. equity futures are rallying significant this morning. joining us now is chad morganlander. thank you for joining us. john harwood earlier telling us they didn't think the latest developments, the latest comments from the fbi would really impact the election, but markets are suggesting otherwise. >> i believe that investors are trading off a certainty and uncertainty factor. regardless of this trade today, i think people should look past it and they should look at long-term returns and long-term economic vitality. we believe that they will continue to see political gridlock going into 2017 and into 2018. so the base case for gdp is more of the same. 1.75% to 2%. as well as the deficit roughly 2% to 3%. again, more of the same. >> you don't expect some changes in fiscal policy, infrastructure
spending, other sort of fiscal levers, which investors hope to finally get pulled? >> yeah, after the last g20 everyone came out and say we need more fiscal spend in the developed side. not only here but within the eurozone. we don't believe that to be the possibility. that's going to move the margin or move gdp all that much. in order to have that happen, you're going to need roughly about 750 billion to a trillion dollars of fiscal spent over the course of four years. we just don't see that as one of the possibilities. we have gdp to debt here in the united states on the federal side of 100%. again, not a lot of firepower. >> so despite the fact that you're thinking there's not going to be much change over the next year or so in terms of the factors at play, are there trades you can put in place today ahead of the election or are you holding back to keep your cash afterwards? >> here's the story. there's a terrific trade within health care. similar to the bill clinton years, you saw health care sell
off considerably. health care has the predictability of earnings. it's come down with multiple compression. so you want to look at that sector as a seam of opportunity. look, our long-term forecast of returns over the next five years ontoal return basis for the s&p is roughly 4% to 6%. so we're not looking at a vibrant get up and go return. that's based off the global backdrop of the economy. that's decelerating, global trade will be somewhat limp over the next several years. >> with that gloomy economic forecast, within the sector groups, do you go for other earning sectors like technology or do you stay with defensive groups like utilities and staples, which don't have that kind of growth but do pay the dividends and have been great in this environment? >> so it's a case by case basis. utilities we somewhat avoid. we would be overweight staples. we would be overweight technology. you want predictability of
earnings. you want to buy individual companies with strong balance sheets, predictable earnings and revenue growth with diversified client basis as well as product lines. you want to go with the highest of highest types of individual companies. >> we had softness in the dollar last week. is that now past? is that rallying today, will we see it strengthen today if we get a hike? >> our expectation is a 4% to 6% type of return on the u.s. dollar over the course of the next 18 months. we also expect softness in the commodity markets as well as strength in gold. >> so tomorrow, let's say -- tomorrow is election day, is there any decisions you would make in realtime if you see florida go for trump or you see some sort of momentum? do you call up and change? >> no. we wouldn't be calling up and changing. you want to have a long-term perspective on this and go and think about this over the next three years. a knee-jerk reaction is always the one trade to make. >> chad morganlander, good stuff. that does it for "worldwide
good morning. the fbi says newly-discovered e-mails don't change its conclusion that there's no grounds for prosecuting hillary clinton. and the market alert, the u.s. equity futures risely sharply and the dollar surging against others in the market. and opec says its committed to cutting output. it's monday, november 7, 2016. and "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ >> live from new york where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box."
good morning. welcome to "squawk box" right here on cnbc. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with joe kernan and michelle caruso cabrera. that song can apply to both candidates the u.s. equities rising sharply after james comey said in a review of newly-discovered e-mails that it has not changed the decision not to bring charges against hillary clinton. overnight in asia, perhaps keying off that news, things looked like it was in the green for the most part. same story in europe as well. and we got a lot more that we'll be talking about with the markets in just a few minutes. and then at the 8:00 a.m. hour, you don't want to miss this because we have an exclusive interview coming up with hedgefund titan david tepper, the founder of appaloosa management. and news breaking earlier this morning, janet reno died from complications with parkinson's disease. she was the first woman to serve as u.s. attorney general. she was one of the