tv Squawk Alley CNBC November 7, 2016 11:00am-12:01pm EST
welcome to "squawk alley" this morning on an important day. got our top story, obviously, less than a day to go until the polls open. the markets are in rally mode. we're looking at almost a 300-point increase on the dow after fbi director james comey said the agency will not reopen its investigation into hillary clinton and her private e-mail server. watching the market reaction here at the nysc, john, let's start with you. >> we have less than a day left before this election is wrapped up. a lot of americans going to breathe a sigh of relief over that. take a look at the battleground map by nbc news, shows hillary clinton has enough states either safely or leaning her way to get over the 270 electoral votes, so donald trump's got to figure out how to tip those undecided and pull some back from hillary clinton. that's the logic of his closing blitz. let's take a look at his travel schedule today. while this is hillary clinton's, first of all, she's going to be
in north carolina, that's a state mitt romney carried four years ago that she's trying to pull out of trump's column, make his hill even steeper to climb. you've got pennsylvania, that's core to him. donald trump needs that, and michigan, as well, which is a state donald trump's trying to take away. it's been leaning to hillary clinton. so donald trump is going to more states because he's got more work to do. he's going to be in michigan, he's also going to be in pennsylvania, he'll be in north carolina, but adding two others he needs very badly, one is florida with 29 electoral votes and the second is the state of new hampshire. he got a bad poll out of new hampshire last night showing him down by 11 percentage points. that's a much wider margin than we've seen lately, but it's an indication of the work donald trump's got to do to try to overcome hillary clinton's advantage. guys? >> john, thank you for that. let's get back to the markets, as well, and the rally, which looks now to be the best day since march 1st. bob standing by. bob? >> we are strengthening
throughout the morning, still 9-1 advancing to declining stocks. look at the s&p, remember we dropped 3.1% in the nine-day slide we've had. we regained more than half of those losses just this morning here. in terms of sector, it's so broad not only the market leaders are ahead, the market laggers are doing well, too. the market leaders, bank and tech, they are leading, but pharmaceutical stocks, the third group there, leading. they've been terrible performers, retail has been terrible, it, too, is a market leader today. telecom started strong, then faded. that makes sense because the ten-year is trading to the upside. big move in gold stocks, gold was over 1300, it's down today. not surprising big decline in the gold stocks, as well. viks, remember we strike over 20 with the election being more competitive than people thought, now down at 17. that's a big drop today, down about four points overall. remember what the market has
been like recently, strength in bank stocks, strength in transports, semiconductors, as well, but the rest of the market, frankly, hasn't been performing well. the laggers outnumber the gainers so far, so pharmaceuticals have been terrible performers, retail have been terrible, consumer staples and any interest rate sensitive groups like telecom and utilities have lagged. today, though, they are all up. carl, back to you. >> i'll take it, thanks, bob. now let's talk impact on sectors, as well as the markets in general. let's bring in chief investment strategist and anthony chan, chief economist at chase. guys, thanks for being with us. anthony, i want to start with you. if we look at sectors and sort of how they perform in the first year of a democrat versus a republican, democrats seem to have some pretty good numbers, particularly in technology and consumer discretionary, but as i look back at how often a democrat has followed another democrat after eight years, that
hasn't happened since roosevelt/truman, so what do the numbers really mean? >> these sectors are, in fact, doing well during a democratic administration, but also tells you this is an unusual election, because the financial sector actually does very well under a democratic administration, but yet we know that if we have a sweep of both the senate and the house, which is unlikely to happen, the financial sector is not likely to do well, but when you look at the republican, you look at some of their sectors, the energy sector does very well in a republican administration, real estate sector does very well, but when you look at the sectors that don't do so well under a democratic administration, something interesting, four out of the five worst performing sectors under a democratic administration still have double digit gains. then when you look at the republican administration, the sectors that don't do very well mostly have negative rates of return, so i say that on a sector by sector basis, the democrats seem to have a slight edge here. >> james, given that this is so
unusual, you know, how likely is it that whether hillary clinton wins or donald trump wins we're more likely to have more of a republican type first year just based on the fact that historically these numbers are only going back to 1989, the ones we've been quoting. we haven't had, again, a democrat follow another democrat after eight years since early in the last century. >> i think, john, the real key here is whether there is tried power or not. not who takes the white house, but whether there's a clear sweep or not, and if there isn't, then i think a lot of those political numbers as far as the impact on the market are not going to be near as strong, and, in fact, i think you make a mistake by trying to focus in on those. i think largely if there's split power, adam smith, is going to manage, make most of the decisions going forward, and i think that's what people should stay focused on, and right now, i think there's a growing evidence that there's not only a
pickup in earnings momentum and growth momentum in the united states, but there's evidence of growing and broadening economic momentum picking up around the globe, and i would say that that should focus investors in on the more economically sensitive cyclical areas, maybe even higher beta areas that have trailed over the last couple years when everyone went to the defensive sort of interest rate plays. i would be more focused there than i would on who takes the white house. >> but jim, the market can refocus on those things once the election is behind us, and it needs to be a certain outcome. what is the market pricing in for a certainty vote tomorrow night? is it a difference of 25 electoral votes? at what point do you think the market will say this is clear there is a winner and this will not follow us through december? >> well, i think that, you know, if we get in a situation where it's the disputed election, that's really bad and that will
certainly drag on, create a lot of uncertainty, raise the vix, but if we have a clear winner tomorrow night, whoever takes it, i think the market might have a knee-jerk reactikction initially if trump wins it will sell off a bit, but within a few weeks the market will get beyond that, refocus on some of the fundamental aspects that have been getting better as we've been worried about this election, and i think we're going to head northward, break out to the upside here over the next year. >> guys, this morning david tepper joined the guys on "squawk box" this morning talking about the election and markets ability to discount either clinton or trump policies. take a listen to this. >> this is a guy that has to remind himself on the podium to stay on message. in fact, he talks to himself, stay on message, donald, stay on message. is he going to get in the oval office and say, don't press a button, donald, don't press that red button?
could be dangerous. talks to himself to stay on message. it makes people nervous, larry, and that's economics. >> jim, does that make sense to you, this idea, this notion that trump delivers a broader spectrum of outcomes that the market is afraid of? >> i think so. i think that's been pretty clear leading up to this, carl, that anything that leans trumpward we get downside risks in the markets, but the question is, does it persist or is it just immediately leading up to and immediately after the election, and i kind of lean that way. i think we move on whoever wins the white house, and investors should focus on, you know, we've escalated fears, we've brought down prices, we've refreshed evaluations a bit. earnings are coming up, growth is starting to restable. i like that combo package of fear with better fundamentals, and i think i'd focus on that more than who wins the white house. >> anthony, does really the house and senate matter more
than the presidency does at this point? i mean, the way the numbers are trending, it looks like the republicans are going to hold on to the house and the senate's not looking bad for the republicans either, but there's a bit more perhaps impact on the budget, on allocation, depending on what happens in congress. >> that's right, and i think that right now when you look at the breakdown of what the votes are suggesting is that the house and the senate will stay, and by the way, the financial markets actually want that, but i want to step away and not just look at sectors and say that in the first year of a presidential election cycle out of an eight-year cycle, it's a good year for the market and here i'm not going back to 1989. i go back to 1929 and the market gives you a rate of return of 8.9%. the only other years when you get bs better performances, third year of the cycle or sixth year of the cycle, so you're getting really good numbers in the first year of a presidential cycle. for those that say, but wait, every time you get a presidential election you're
more than likely to have a recession, in the last six presidential elections you've only had a recession shortly after just twice, so in a world where earnings are actually bottoming out and likely to start spiking higher and you don't get that many recessions after presidential elections, i think we're looking at a pretty good 2017 if after this election is over. >> that's a nice note to end on, put a smile on our faces. jim paulson from wells and anthony chan from chase, thanks for joining us. when we come back, less than a day to go, not just tepper weighing in on the campaign, clinton versus trump, elon musk using choice words. then it's become one of the biggest and most influential demographics in the last ten years, how millennials plan to rock the vote tomorrow. the co-founders of the skimm will discuss that. dow is up 306, just five points away from recovering all 311 points it's lost over seven straight down days. why are you deleting these photos?
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the countdown to the election is on, obviously. earlier this morning we talked to david tepper, but he's not the only one weighing in. on friday we spoke to tesla's elon musk. here's what he had to say. >> i think, you know, if hillary's economic policies and environmental policies particularly are the right ones,
you know, but -- yeah, i also don't think this is the finest moment in our democracy in general. >> roger, the co-founder of elevation partners, eric powe joins us at post nine, gentlemen, good to have you. can you believe this whole chapter we've been through? what do you think we should start thinking about once it's over, once this race is over? >> well, you know, we just have to think about the future. we haven't heard much about the future in these debates. we've heard about an economic with high tariffs, bring manufacturing back, i assume they are meaning the old style manufacturing. we haven't talked about technology, innovation, the drivers of the economy today have been completely lost. in addition to that, we heard a lot of anticapitalism or an anti free enterprise speech. i don't understand that, we're not talking about this. >> roger, it seems like we have
plenty of discussions amongst ourselves about a.i. and automation and autonomous cars and just innovation in general. that gets so lost when it comes to public policy. >> well, i think there are a bunch of factors driving that. technology's played a huge role in this election cycle, because the internet has changed the nature of how campaigns are run so fundamentally. to me i think the thing investors really need to pay attention to is less about what candidates say than what this process implies for the future of, you know, in terms of uncertainty. i think investors have gotten used to the notion the united states has stable institutions and that we can count on the banking system, we can count on the government in general to stay predictable within certain ranges, and i think that this particular campaign has blown all of that up. i think there were issues already under obama because the republican obstruction of his
legislative agenda, but i think now you're in open warfare, and i think that's really bad for the investment markets in general. i think it raises capital costs everywhere, and, again, i don't know how real the problem is, but i think people have to start to look at instability in our basic institutions in a way that literally we haven't had to look at in my lifetime, and i find that really scary. really, the notion that we might have four more years like the last eight of continuous obstruction and, you know, something awful mieg happen, we might not be able to respond because we can't get the two sides to talk to each other, that part really scares me, and i don't think it matter what is we do in silicon valley at this point, we have to fix those institutions or we're in big trouble. >> eric, the eyes of the world are on the u.s. this week to see how this election plays out. deutsche bank says european equities could fall 5% to 10% if there's a trump victory. they are preparing for a
brexit-like market slide if trump were to win, but it's so hard to predict how a president-elect would act, based on what we've seen in the campaign trail. how do you predict what they'll do? >> well, that's right. i think the markets are saying with hillary clinton we know pretty much it's going to be same old, same old, we're accustomed to that, therefore, let's bid the market up, because there's not going to be major disrupti disruption. with trump, we don't know. we don't know. on the other hand, there are institutions that will prevent him from doing extreme things, we believe, particularly congress, but there's a lot of unknown if trump wins. >> eric, grover norquist was on last hour arguing hillary clinton presidency of hers, she would regulate start-ups like uber to death, she'd be terrible for the gig economy because she wants employee-level protections for contractors. you deal with a broad spectrum of companies that rely on unique and nimble business models to survive. are you concerned about that? >> of course, i am. i'm concerned about the attack in general against private
enterprise, and capitalism. i mean, there was a survey done earlier this year that shows 51% of millennials are not capitalists. and so we're raising a whole generation of people who believe capitalism is a bad thing, so together with that comes more regulation, more government interference, and then it's not good for innovation. innovation needs to be free, play within the rules, but the rules need to be well known and they need to stay there for the long term. >> roger, when you say we need to start pricing in basic institutional instability, give me an example of how that will affect your investment model, your investment thesis, the things you choose to spend your money on. >> well, carl, one of the things that really troubles me about the current situation is exactly the point your other guest just made, which is that too many people in the country do not trust our institutions, do not trust our basic economic system,
and loss of trust, loss of empathy, are everywhere in the economy right now. it makes me just generally more cautious. i believe that silicon valley and our economy can still produce a lot of greatness, but what i worry about is that the benefits of that have been so unevenly distributed for so long, that a lot of ideas are going to get killed too early simply because we haven't been smart and share the benefits broadly. i think, you know, the economy's just gotten out of track. we've done the same things for 40 years expecting the same kind of results, and, you know, you can't just keep downsizing, you can't keep sending jobs to china without eventually undermining the roots of the economy. i think we could have a really great run from here, but it would be super helpful if congress would sit there and go, look, we don't want to go crazy with either regulation, spending, whatever, but we are going to run the country properly, we are going to rebuild our infrastructure, we are going to recognize climate
change is real and invest like crazy in new technology there. there are so many exciting things to invest in right now, like climate change technology, like various forms of information technology, medical technology, but people are not going to do that if they believe there's a risk of somebody getting in there and blowing up the system, either through congress or through the presidency, or just in the streets. >> so last word, eric, that's going to require a sales job marketing of sorts. >> it's going to require clear vision that we want an economy that is driven by innovation, driven by technology, protective of people who might fall out of this, but we have to have consensus. we have to have congress behind this, and we have got to show young people that the economy is here to grow. that's the key part. >> it's a big, big job. wish we had more time with you guys, but thank you for coming in. good to see you both. make sure you catch our special election coverage tomorrow night. it does begin at 7:00 p.m.
eastern time and it's right here on cnbc. still to come on "squawk alley," there are more than 75 million millennials eligible to vote. that's about one-third of the national electorate. we'll speak to the cofounders of the skimm about this important demographic. s&p 500 is up about 2%, green across the board. "squawk alley" will be right back. ♪ ♪ is it a force of nature? or a sales event? the season of audi sales event is here. audi will cover your first month's lease payment on select models during the season of audi sales event. (bing)
tonight, "the odd couple" remake on cbs is making a tribute to gary marshall. marshall, of course, created the original "odd couple" and passed away in july. we spoke to him as a part of binge and spoke about whatever happened to the television theme song. take a listen. >> the tv theme song? >> yeah. i can sing "love american style" right now, it's been 40 years. >> it's so competitive now. there's so many channels, that
they want to start with a big joke or something right away and there's no time for the theme. i love theme songs. "the odd couple" theme song neil hefty did is one, and my kids never could remember my birthday. that's the opening of "odd couple." i say on november 13th, i have three kids, oh, there's your birthday. >> that whole interview streaming on cnbc.com, apple tv, and youtube. might be a nice respite from political news this week. >> indeed, different odd couple we have up in the polls this time. >> star-studded tribute to gary marshall, as well. coming up on "squawk alley," why candidates are spending more and more time courting millennials. cofounders of the skimm will join us. and echoing much of the sentiment here in the u.s., major averages across the pond up about 1.5%. we'll count down to the european close in just a minute. @!@!
opposition syrian media outlet shows u.s.-backed syrian democratic forces stationed in a village near northern syria. this is ahead an expected offensive to liberate raqqah, the de facto capital for isis. russian prime minister medvedev will discuss trade, as well as economic and energy issues. the chinese delegation will meet with russian president putin on tuesday. and disney receiving permission to fly drones at its theme parks in california and florida. the faa issuing the waiver to allow the drones to be flown during the day and also at night. disney is going to use them for entertainment purposes. that's the news update this hour, back to "squawk alley." carl, back to you. >> sue, thank you very much. we're also getting the european close as we speak. hey, seema. >> washington dominating the discussion, not just here in the u.s., but across the pond in europe, european stocks joining the global rally on pace for their best session in three
weeks, this as investors increasingly bet on a hillary clinton win following the most recent update from the fbi over the weekend. in terms of stock, on the move. banks among the biggest winners. cost cuts helping shbc, europe's largest bank, better than expected pre-tax earnings and a sharp jump in core capital ratio, a key measure of financial strength. deutsche bank also joining the rally. it's a good day for airlines, as well. an 8% increase in quarterly profit and issuing an upbeat passenger forecast, despite the brexit uncertainty. other airlines like lufthansa moving higher in today's trade. the political impact on global assets, that continues to be a big conversation, aside from the japanese and mexican peso, keep a close eye on the russian ruble, which is expected to gain if donald trump wins the white house. his positive commentary around
vladimir putin openly praising the russian leader, suggesting to some that if trump wins the presidency, u.s.-russia relations may be bolstered. kayla? >> thanks so much, seema. back at headquarters. only a day away from the election with hillary clinton and donald trump doing their best to reach millennials in this election. the voting bloc that makes up nearly a third of the electorate and joining us now are the founders and co-ceos of the skimm. carly, danielle, thanks for joining us. >> thank you so much for having us. >> millennials are catching up closely to baby boomers as the largest share of the electorate, but the question is whether they will turn out to vote. carly, what is it looking like? >> so they are turning out to vote. we talked to our audience and over 97% are planning on voting. i think there's a big misunderstanding about this audience that there's apathy within this audience and that they are not planning on turning out. i think there's a real distinction between whether or not they are going to actually show up and whether or not they
are excited to show up. >> we've seen registration in droves, including via the skimm. you have 110,000 people that have registered to vote just through the skimm. how'd you do that? >> we are so proud of it. as you said, millennials make up a huge part of this voting bloc, they are about a third of the voting population in the u.s., so that's huge. as a company that makes it easier to be smarter, focusing primarily on female millennials and getting them information, we knew we had to make get out the vote and voter registration an essential part of our economy and we did that by teaming up with rock the vote. we've had over 110,000 people registered to vote. that is amazing, and now we're going a step forward, making sure they have buddies and a way to get to the polls, making sure they know what to bring, making sure they are prepared so that 97% that intends to vote actually does vote, which i think is really key. >> also the 110,000, over 95,000 are women, which is, obviously, such a huge market for who the candidates are trying to reach. >> carly, i wonder how
representative your readership is of millennials at large. by definition they are people who really want to be informed, perhaps more than the population at large, so i wonder, did you see any kind of shift that you are able to track over time in enthusiasm given that so many millennials were excited about bernie sanders and seemed to sort of fall off the map after it was clear he wasn't going to be the democratic nominee? >> we definitely did see that shift. nearly 60% of our audience is going to vote for hillary clinton. that's not because 60% of our audience is a registered democrat or was supporting her from the beginning. a lot of bernie sanders supporters ended up crossing the line to support hillary, but a huge amount of republicans and independents are supporting hillary in this audience, so it's been interesting to see how that shift has happened and goes back to the overall message, 40% of this audience is really upset about who they are voting for, and so again, i think it's really important to note that they are in many ways begrudgingly voting for hillary,
but they are voting for her. >> on the one hand you're hearing women say i'm empowered by hillary being the first female president, i'm voting for her, or as susan sarandon said over the weekend, i don't vote based on my gender. >> for us, millennials have reflected a trend people tend to be voting against another candidate and that's true with this bloc. there are a lot of reasons why millennials are turning out to vote for hillary, but when we look at it it's to block another candidate. when we did a survey a few weeks ago we saw actually the same amount of female millennials that are going to vote for trump are looking at third party candidates, so we see a lot of frustration with who they've got in front of them and what they are going to get out of these election results. >> carly, you mentioned a lion's share of your readers support hillary clinton, but not because they are registered democrats. you think about the one issue connecting all millennials, student debt, but socially and
fiscally, what other issues do they care about and how do the party lines get drawn? >> really interesting question. when we first started the efforts, we assumed the audience would care about social issues first and we were incorrect in assuming that. a lot of people assume that's what the audience cares about. we were all over the midwest and northeast and talking to these students and talking to millennials as a whole, and honestly just talking to our friends, as we are millennials, what we've seen is that the number one thing for them is the economy, international security, and worrying about student loans. this is an audience that is inheriting a tremendous amount of debt, that social security, while they might not be -- not a sexy term to talk about in your 20s and 30s, it's something that's coming up and it's something that, i think, the economy matters so much to this audience, i think more than their parents probably realize it matters to them. >> danielle, when you hear the candidates courting millennials, trying to speak to millennials in this home stretch, do you
think what's most important to them is trying to sway their vote from the other candidate or just to get them out to the polls? >> you know, i think it depends. i think that we've seen so much talk about millennials and as a company that represents female millennials, a lot of the language out there is pretty disappointing, and i think that, you know, thinking about millennials as this huge voting bloc, it's been an interesting strategy to have that language out there, because if you need millennials to turn out and need female millennials turning out, talking with some disparaging language about them is probably not an effective strategy and i think that's something that we've seen, that people are, you know, have been unhappy with their choices going into this, but overall they are unhappy with this election and i think that is something that, you know, doesn't matter if you're a millennial, that's across the country, people are really excited for this to be over. >> we've seen strong early voting turnout, we'll see if that continues through tomorrow. carly, danielle of the skimm, thanks so much for being here. as we go to break, take a look where we stand here, dow
close to session highs up 313, and the s&p now within 30 points of recovering the losses it sustained over those nine straight down days. we're back after a break. i'm only in my 60's. i've got a nice long life ahead. big plans. so when i found out medicare doesn't pay all my medical expenses, i looked at my options. then i got a medicare supplement insurance plan. [ male announcer ] if you're eligible for medicare, you may know it only covers about 80%
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dow stock that's been a battleground for months. and why one firm upgraded biogen, who say they hope they don't forget the move. will they? john, we'll see you in about 20 minutes. >> thanks, scott. not just the broader markets, some key names are also watching, shares of oracle are moving higher, the company is now set to close that netsuite deal with more than 50% of the shares that are not controlled by larry ellison. it had been in question, t. rowe price was in question whether they -- how hard they'd fight this deal, but now regardless it appears oracle has gotten netsuite, that gives them a new tool in the cloud when it comes to trying to capture some of that mid market market share that they've talking about targeting with this deal, and, of course, larry ellison did have a big stake in the suite, having helped to start it, but those shares were not counted toward how this eventual deal
would turn out. >> was it always thought to be a given, considering ellison held those shares? >> it was at first, but then they had trouble actually getting all the shares to vote out. it looked perhaps too sweet a deal for oracle. t. rowe price, though, on both sides, netsuite, but also oracle, so the question was how it eventually would work out. now, it does appear that they've got it. >> let's get over to rick santelli here and get the santelli exchange. good morning, rick. >> good morning, carl. four or five years ago, many of the people i sberp viewed that had a long history of dealing in the human aspects of this business really questioned the signals of the market place and the new artificial intelligence computer, high speed institutionalized type trading world we live in, and most of their comments really were regarding trying to handicap what the falling rise of rates means, the equity markets, what it means about the economy, but
the story has gotten much bigger. post brexit, and i know i talk about brexit a lot, i have a feeling tomorrow no matter who wins there's still going to be a brexit factor to how the returns turn out, and the reason it's important is, these signals probably aren't very valuable anymore. and not -- it's not a negative thing, it's just the way things are. anybody who's taken statistics understands the bigger your sample is, the better your results are, but i challenge anybody to talk to any programmers are people involved in computerized trading to write code or write the algos and what you find is, first of all, the biggest and the best that do this say that most of the trading patterns and most of the trading coding is very similar. so, are the results beneficial? after brexit, 86%, you've heard it before, the day of are in favor of staying, so where's it all gone wrong? there was a time ten years ago
when these betting websites really had their heyday and what money was purposed in any type of way to try to handicap the future was highly accurate. not true anymore. and this is really significant. you know, you look right now, if you look at the percentage change between the dow, the dax, the nikkei, they are almost on top of each other, each about 1 3/4%, i challenge you to find such a high correlation and all the dynamics that are driving these economies or all the debt that belies these economies. we just had great young people on from the skimm and they are very idealistic, i get it, but many of these sites where they get their news are more ek cochamber than fact finding missions. about debt, the girls talked about debt, but debt needs to be a highlight, it's a highlight in their lives. talk to a young person about his deal with the affordable care act, talk about how much debt they have, job opportunities they have, whether they are
going to get a nickel from social security. these are big issues. what the markets say to me is, everybody looks about the same with regard to the output of where their markets are, but it doesn't reflect the knew answnue differences, whether it's the economy or the ideology of their citizens. tomorrow's going to be a wake-up call. things have changed, and maybe we need to change what we see when we see a market up or down when we see results of betting websites trying to tell us what our future will be. carl, back to you. >> we are going to find out tomorrow. a large degree. rick, thank you so much. rick santelli. when we come back, we're going to head to the border where one traditionally red state is on the fence of turning blue. we'll turn to arizona and what's ahead for that state when "squawk alley" returns. ♪ we're drowning in information. where, in all of this, is the stuff that matters?
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a lot of reports out this weekend about a surge in latino early voting, and out in arizona republicans are hoping that's a good sign. contessa brewer is live in arizona with more. hey, contessa. >> reporter: hey there, carl. here in na ga las people know what the proposed wall will do. after all, they have a fence that separates arizona from mexico and stretches miles. this area is more than 90% latino and overwhelmingly democrat, but the state republican party says, look, the democrats are taking the latino vote for granted, so arizona's
gop is making an intense push to win support, food drives, toys for tots campaigns, and is staffing its very first republican headquarters here in a shop that imports mexican arts and crafts. the owner was a democrat until a year ago, now running as a republican for local office. >> trump is saying that he's going to create more jobs, he's going to be make america great again, and i'm looking more in the county. great. >> reporter: but with the unemployment rate here at 12.6% and tourism plummeting, the peso weak against the dollar, business owners report profits off by 40% over last year, so for a lot of them trump's stand against free trade with mexico is a tough sell. >> that would kill nogales. right now it's barely surviving. if trump does win, it's going to
kill whatever nogales has left over. >> reporter: twice as many latinos have participated in early voting here in arizona as in 2012. also motivated by referendums on legalizing marijuana and raising the minimum wage, but top of mindwage. top for latino families, the presidential election. for families on both sides of the border, there's a lot of anxiety about what happens after the election. >> it's a big story. thank you so much. donald trump stumping in sarasota. both candidates making their final pitch in voters in battleground states. joining us, tad divine and rick tyler. good morning to you both. rick, you talk about clinton trying to defend a big blue wall. what do you mean by that? >> essentially right now she's got a wall that she's defending, it's a blue wall, it's blue states. it's important to note it's not a red wall.
what donald trump needs to do is break that blue wall somewhere. that's why you see here in these states that don't have early voting like new hampshire, like she's been in michigan, several questioning why she's in michigan. it's because they don't have early voting. they don't have good data on how the turnout is going to be. she lost michigan to bernie sanders. she wants to make sure that doesn't happen again. >> if we go along with that, where is the biggest potential fissure? >> all the states that trump goes in, they have reason to believe they can succeed there. in pennsylvania, where they have been targeting. i don't think the blue wall is going to crumble. i'd much rather be defending a blue wall than trying to knock down a red wall a day before the election. i think that's trump's problem. he has no place to go. >> when you look at the way this is working out, having another democratic administration after eight years would be highly
unusual. so many of the demographics seem to be lining up against trump. what is the republican party going to do postmortem -- it's still a big if -- this goes against donald trump? >> if it goes again donald trump, the republican party is going to have a fight. there will be a brawl. a breakdown between the party. it's win at all cost. if we win, what do we win? it's an important question. the other is the establishment. there are lots of establishment leaders. establishment is in charge. it lost its meaning a little bit. we know who the establishment is. they don't have a great track record of electing -- getting republicans ee llected to offic. then you have the conservative wing which is leadership, messageless and has little organization. who lost? whose fault is it? it's the winner of the argument that will determine the party. >> the message that was the
biggest threat to the blue wall came out of the fbi, not from the other candidate. 40 million early votes were cast between the two disclosures by jim comey. what was the net affect of that? >> in one sense, people made up their mind about the e-mails a long time ago. it clearly had a negative affect on the campaign, because momentum is the most dangerous thing to have a candidate have -- your opponent have in the closing days. trump has clearly has it. she has a turnout advantage, money advantage, advertising advantage. these states are in her favor. he has to run the table on all of the swing states and has to break one of these blue states, either pennsylvania, which would do it, new hampshire, with some combination of michigan. but right now, there would have to literally be a vote out there we don't see. >> tad, is there a stubborn element of sanders constituency that still refuses to back her? is that damaging at all, even on the margin? >> i don't think so. i think the people who supported
bernie sanders understand the differences between donald trump and hillary clinton on issues they care about, issues like health and education, something like climate change where he denied it exists, i think they understand that those issue differences are profound. bernie has been campaigning across the country, encourage people to support hillary. the sanders voters for the most part, a large percentage of them who participate are going to support hillary clinton. >> tad, if this turns out as a clinton victory -- that's the way the polls at least have been leaning in the last days -- it seems to me that the latino vote is going to be a huge part of the story, in arizona as we were talking about, whichever way that tilts, certainly in florida. during the obama presidency, there was a lot of disappointment about how he handled or didn't handle the issue of a grand bargain about immigration. what happens after this election on issues like that given the latino vote looks to be pivotal? >> i think you are right.
i think the latino vote could be difference in many states, really important states like nevada and florida and elsewhere. and i think what's going to happen is, it needs to be responded to. if hillary clinton is president and can find a way to lead immigration reform into law, i think she's going to consolidate that new emerging base of the democratic party which includes latinos and african-americans and young people and others. it's got to be a top priority. she will use all the power of the presidency to acheeieve as much as she can. the only way to fix this is with legislative help. the republicans have to understand if they don't change their position when it comes to latino voters, they will be marginalized as a major party. >> we are about to learn a lot about what the american people are thinking and how much these organizations were able to accomplish on the ground. tad, rick, thank you. appreciate it very much. markets continue to be in rally mode. dow is up 336. this would be among the four best gains of the year. back after a break.
over nine days, you would have to return to 2153. market is working to get there. we will see if it holds. >> interesting to debate whether this is short covering from the decline that we had seen over the last week or whether this is real fresh money coming in that wants to buy going forward. financials, health care, those sectors leading higher. under siege in the election cycle of late. >> where technology is concerned, it's enterprise having a strong morning. semiconductors, storage and cloud. look at amd, net app and then the storage names, western digital and c gate all surging more than 5% right now. followed by named like hp enterprise, amazon, splunk. remarkable. >> two stocks i'm watching, ksu. kansas city southern, a referendum on nafta, giving the work they do transporting goods to and from mexico.
twitter went public three years ago today which got completely lost. if we hadn't been in the midst of an election, we would have talked about that. >> it was a textbook ipo at the time. >> unbelievable. $26 a share right over here. i remember that day. let's get over to the judge and the half. thanks, welcome to the halftime report. our top trade this hour, this market rally. stocks bouncing back today, now on track to break their longest losing streak in 36 years. that surge coming one day before americans hit the polls. we will talk about that this hour. with joe , josh, jim and steve. steve, i start with you. dow is almost back to where it was before the losing streak. s&p has work to do. what do do you before we go to election day? >> i added some exposure. it was light an exposure and