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tv   Power Lunch  CNBC  November 7, 2016 1:00pm-3:01pm EST

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>> impressive. i don't know what to say. how many calories in a burger? >> i could do another ten minutes if you want. >> i like the stock, but not like the twinkies? >> i don't hate the company. i understand indulging in a treat once in a while. i just don't think -- >> how do you feel about ring dings? >> thank you. see you tomorrow. >> 50/50. >> "power" starts now. all right, just forget about the menu. today is a smorgasbord of markets, your money and your vote. we are entering the homestretch. and we have every side of the story covered in a way that only cnbc can. so loosen up that belt buckle, america. politics packed "power lunch" starts right now. welcome to "power lunch." i'm michelle caruso-cabrera. stocks are soaring on the eve of the election. right now the dow jones industrial average up a strong 353 points. a gain of nearly 2%. the s&p, higher for the first
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time in ten sessions, and the nasdaq as you can see also firmly in the green. biggest percentage gainer of the day by way more than 2%. the peso versus the dollar, dollar stronger across the board except for the peso, which has rebounded in the wake of the fbi news over the weekend, which we'll get to in a second. and the sectors that are moving the most at this hour, when we see whole board of green, the bank sector higher by more than 2.5%. technology is up more than 2%. ditto for retail and health care. tyler? >> michelle, thank you very much. the markets as you mentioned getting a boost from yesterday's news that the fbi has affirmed its earlier decision not to press charges against hillary clinton. bob pisani following the action at the new york stock exchange. eamon javers live in washington with the latest on the fbi. john harwood here in the house with what it all means in the final hours in the race to the white house. we begin with the markets and bob pisani. bob? >> thank you very much, tyler. let's look at the markets in the middle of the day. no fade to rally here.
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a lot of talk about that down here. not happening in the middle of the day. we're just off the highs for the day. 8 to 1 advancing to declining stocks. haven't seen that very much. volume on the medium side, not heavy. i call it medium. vix below 20 again. that's where people start paying attention, over 20 seconders. you saw them earlier, remarkable, you got banks and tech up, but they were market leaders. what is more remarkable is laggards like health care, and retail stocks have been lagging the market ever since here. telecom and reits still up here, but not much compared to the rest of the market. want to focus on the health care sector. you have biogen, like one of the big health care stocks that are up, as well in the biotech area, pharmaceuticals, like abbott and bristle myers are all up. people are saying why is this happening if hillary might become more likely to become president. divided government, house stays republican, likes it much more likely she'll be able to have a
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deleterious effect on the sector. everyone will have coverage, all flying today. community health, hca, universal health, all on the upside. finally, rates are still moving up. dollar is strong, rates are higher here today. and we got a number of financial stocks at new highs. new high list is not big, but prudential, regions, key corp., sitting at 52 week highs. back to you. >> bob, thank you very much. let's dig in on why we're seeing a rally today. the fbi saying it sees no reason in that second batch of e-mails to charge hillary clinton. eamon javers in washington with the latest. >> that's right. let me share with you the sentence from the letter that the fbi director sent to capitol hill yesterday that got the markets attention. he said, based on our review we have not changed our conclusions that we expressed in july with respect to secretary clinton. that was the signal that the market was apparently looking for. some reaction on both sides of the aisle here.
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first of all, from the spokesman for the clinton campaign, says we were always confident nothing would cause the july decision to be revisited, now director comey has confirmed it. also kellyanne conway, the trump campaign manager on the "today" show also criticized the fbi director. here is what she had to say. >> why in the world would you reopen or extend this investigation if you didn't have something big? even the democrats were saying that. what donald trump did not do which hillary clinton and others on the democratic side did do was viciously attack jim comey. he's the hero in july, now he's the enemy. >> so from a hero to an enemy depending which side of the aisle you're on. that's the fate of the fbi director today. politically we'll see what his fate is in terms of his ability to do his job over the coming weeks depending on who gets elected to the presidency tomorrow. but for now, this letter yesterday removes the fbi from the shadows of this election and now voters can get on with making up their decision here,
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guys. >> thank you. how is it all factoring into those voters that eamon mentioned? john harwood is here at cnbc headquarters. >> it is not likely that the jim comey letter has much to do with the race at the end. i talked to a senior clinton adviser last night who said anybody who is making up their mind on the basis of e-mails long since made up their mind, but if markets are rally, if markets want hillary clinton, here is another reason, aside from jim comey that that is happening. take a look at these polls. they're converging around a common theme. our nbc wall street journal poll final one, four-point spread in favor of hillary clinton. bloomberg poll, three-point spread, abc/washington post, four, fox, four. that's not a wide lead, but it is about the size of a lead that president obama had four years ago when he defeated mitt romney and won a lopsided electoral victory. look at the electoral map and see how hillary clinton looks. not as strong as president obama
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yet, but the nbc news assessment is that she has either safely or leaning her way 274 electoral votes. you need 270 to become president. you see tossups there like arizona, florida, georgia, north carolina, ohio, new hampshire, all of those are states where donald trump is desperate to find ways to breakthrough. he had difficulty doing that. and hillary clinton are both going today, for example, to north carolina. that was a mitt romney state in 2012. if donald trump cannot win that state, he falls backward, and the hill gets steeper for him to climb to get to 270 votes. it is a steep hill already, guys. >> yeah, sure is. thank you very much, john. going to be exciting. you can watch it all go down right here on cnbc. we're going to be live with our special election night coverage all night, starting at 7:00 p.m. eastern time until it's done. >> whenever that is. >> right. >> so big rally ahead of the election. let's bring in gabriela santos
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with jpmorgan funds and karen kimbro. welcome to you both to "power lunch." karen, i'll start with you. a lot of strategists come on our air and say the election is not something you should position around and you see some of the big events that happened to the markets this year and they have been tremendous investing opportunities like brexit. so what are you telling people at this point, given the interesting developments of this weekend? >> we're telling people to think about the fact that this is one of several risk events that will play out before the end of the year. we have the elections tomorrow, but we also have more on brexit, more on the fed decision, more on the referendum and next year we'll expect to see even more uncertainty in the political spectrum in europe. so for us, what we try to tell people, think about the long run. don't focus on trying to position around the events, it is too unpredictable and what we really expect the most certainty around is probably just more episodic volatility. >> can i just clarify, is this a hillary clinton rally or is this a divided government rally?
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>> so i guess i would probably think that if you look at how the market has responded, chances are it is just more of a rally on more certainty of a divided government. >> a divided government. >> a divided government. >> look at the news in health care, bob pointed that out, financials. if people believe that democrats are going to sweep, these sectors would go straight down. >> right. >> was it more likely the opposite, which would have been the republicans are probably going to keep the house, a good chance they keep the senate. if trump won, it would have been the gop trifecta, which may have been just as bad as the democratic trifecta because the market kind of wants that gridlock is that too simplistic of a way to look at it. >> i think the market does want, the least amount of uncertainty as possible. the way to get that is to continue with the status quo outcome. i think that's actually true whether you get a president clinton tomorrow, or whether you get a president trump. because both are leading with an establishment republican led house, right?
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it is difficult actually for either candidate to get a lot of what they have been proposing through congress. and as a result, we're likely to end up with a government of moderation despite the extreme nature of the election process. >> who is going to lead the house? that's an important question. >> true. >> who knows what is going to happen. you say don't let politics sway your investment thinking. i think you kind of agree with that. >> i do. >> it would -- i'm going to say that in the next administration, whoever it is, is likely to be a recession. that could sway your investment posture, correct? >> you should be thinking about where we are in the business cycle. and that's irrespective of who becomes president. right. we're already in the 88th month of this expansion. well into the 8th year. it is more likely that we're in the later innings of the game and could be seeing a recession a few years from now. possibly at the end of this president's first term. so what we're telling our clients is, look, we don't see their chance of a recession right now.
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so there are still some opportunities and risk assets, but we should from the beginning have what we want to call an umbrella or insurance in -- >> from what you know of the candidates' positions, mrs. clinton on taxes, mr. trump on trade, which one would likely occasion a recession quicker or deeper? >> i think a recession is probably more likely not to come from just the general policy agenda of any particular candidate, more likely to come from some unanticipated external shock abroad or from the fed mistake. right now i don't think we're going to see a fed mistake, but i do think chances are if they try to hike too quickly, chances are something goes wrong in emerging markets and we have a confidence shock, that's what might precipitate -- >> part of your job is to anticipate the somewhat unanticipatable. if you had to lay out the risks after the election, tyler's point, how would you rank them? >> the risks to the economy or to markets? >> to the possibility of a recession, external events you
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just referred to. >> sure. i think the fed will be very careful. they're going to go extremely slowly. happy to sit behind the curve. i don't think it is the fed that will resip tate will precipitate a recession. those are hard to predict, but i -- >> it sounds almost like you're saying effectively that a trump -- maybe i'm reading between the lines, but a trump presidency would yield the greater probability of these unanticipatable external shocks, particularly to the credit system. >> not at all. i'm saying i think there is some -- probably greater uncertainty around what a trump agenda might look like, probably greater certainty in the markets around what a clinton agenda would look like. and that gives the fed a little bit more confidence around their confidence bands on what they want to do this year or next year. >> i wonder so much, tyler, about what you raised about who is going to lead the house, if there were trump -- which is a big if at this stage, but if he
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does, legislative agenda could include tax reform, could be a big deal, wouldn't it? if we get over all the ifs. if he wins. if we get the same house speaker. >> if the gop holds the senate. >> a lot of ifs, right. when we're thinking about what are assumptions for growth, returns are in the medium term, it is hard to make those projections based on all these different political outcomes, right? i think it is more about when we actually get the results, when we had a chance to process them, once we have an economic team in place, we can really try to distill the effects on growth. >> it would be fascinating if mr. trump wins and you see him having to deal with a republican house, a republican senate, whose leadership has been tepid at the very most. >> don't you think -- tax reform, it is the one thing he knows, taxes. only thing he knows. >> i think they probably would, yeah. i think they probably would. whether they would be able to
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overcome a democrat with 48 votes in the senate -- >> or personality differences. >> yeah. harry reid won't be there either. >> true. >> gabriela, karen, thank you, both. >> thank you so much. >> good luck. >> good luck. >> courage. >> good luck to all of us, one and all. coming up, your next guest says we're in the tenth inning of game seven in the presidential world series. the game is close. but this time, folks, you decide the winner. will clinton become our first female president? could donald trump be america's mr. brexit? niall ferguson next. as we head to break, one of the many memorable moments of the 2016 presidential race. >> putin, from everything i see, has no respect for this person. >> well, that's because he would rather have a puppet as president. >> no puppet. no puppet. >> and it is pretty clear -- >> you're the pupet. >> it is pretty clear you won't admit that -- >> no, you're the puppet. ♪
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all right, america. tomorrow, you will decide the 45th president of the united states. and our next guest says as was the case with the brexit vote, the turnout size is the key to whether clinton or trump wins the white house. a "power lunch" exclusive with niall ferguson, senior fellow at
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stanford's hoover institution. great to see you again. thank you for joining us. what would be the best case turnout scenario for donald trump? >> well, i'm suffering from post brexit traumatic stress disorder, i'm remembering how it was in london back in june, when the conventional wisdom was that britain would narrowly vote to stay within the european union and then it didn't happen. and the reason it didn't happen was there were huge differentials in turnout according to age and a whole bunch of other distinctions. donald trump is polling strongly with white voters, with male voters, with older voters, and with less well educated voters. and there are a lot of them. if they turn out, in numbers, significantly higher than they did four years ago, eight years ago, then the polls are going to be wrong because the assumptions that polls make about turnout tend to assume a fairly narrow range. so i think the lesson of brexit is watch the differentials and
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turnout. of course, if hillary clinton's campaign turns out hispanic voters, as seems to be happening in, say, florida, sufficient to win that state, then turnout decides it the other way. but i do think that commentators, prediction markets, are currently somewhat overstating her likelihood of winning. and i'm reminded vividly of that brexit feeling. >> who do you think -- who would you like to see win? >> well, i have been from a very early stage one of those never trump right leaning commentators. i've long felt that he did not have the character to be the president of the united states. i could give you a very long list of reasons why. i'll take just one, on foreign policy, he would be a completely unknown quantity, but there is plenty of reason to worry about his peculiar bromance with the russian president vladimir putin. so i've said, and i said this
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way back in april, that hillary clinton is best understood as the lesser evil. i'm not hugely enthusiastic about -- >> i want to underline, you were somebody who loved margaret thatcher, a fan of ronald reagan, you are what we would call right wing in the united states. >> yeah, i mean, i'm a little nervous about -- i'm a conservative in british terms. but i always find when i look at my position in the united states, it is slap bang in the middle somewhere. if mike bloomberg had run as an independent candidate, he would have had my support. incidentally one reason for thinking hillary clinton presidency might be a not bad outcome is there are resuumors t mike bloomberg might be offered offered -- when i view the spectrum, i have to say on balance, i've said this really all along, i would prefer hillary clinton to be president for all her flaws. >> i was reading some of the notes about your travels to
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china. what do people in china think of the race? and who would they like to see? >> it is fascinating. i went there recently and i kind of expected there to be an anti-trump mood. after all, trump is promising more or less a trade war with china, repeatedly bashed china during the campaign, and imagine my surprise when i was told by a great many people i met with in bay gin, beijing, we would rather trump, it is hillary we don't like, we think hillary would be more of a hawk on issues like the south china sea. and would keep bringing up human rights, which they're fairly confident that donald trump would not do. so when you travel the world, you get some pretty surprising results. it is not only the russians -- >> the businessman, basically, the chinese could do business with trump. >> that's what i heard. >> they don't believe -- >> they think it is all a bluff. they think it is all a bluff. they say we heard this before on the campaign trail, american candidates beat up on china
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during the campaign, think of bill clinton and then when it comes to the crunch, they end up going on a visit to the forbidden city and everybody is best friends. so i think they somewhat underestimate the degree to which trump would be a completely out of left field or out of right field candidate. and i think they underestimate the extent to which he means it on trade. but that is the attitude one encounters in beijing. not only there. if you go to the arab world, just to give another example, there is much more enthusiasm for trump in the arab world because they think he would junk the iran deal. where as there is a broad assumption that hillary clinton would be the continuation of obama's foreign policy. >> so is it possible we're overestimating the negative impact trump could have on foreign policy then? you're outlining how surprising the recep tiffity to trump is around the world. >> i said it a group of my liberal friends in the summer, your worst nightmare is not a trump presidency, it is a successful trump presidency. markets would freak out in the immediate aftermath of a
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surprise trump win. but, you know, i think many regimes around the world would have a strong incentive to make him look good. imagine trump goes to moscow, putin rolls out the red carpet, they do a deal on syria, yukraie has sacrificed. he goes on to beijing, there is a little shadow boxing and then no trade war. i have a nasty sense and i use the word nasty as someone who as i said reluctantly supports hillary clinton in this contest, that it might look quite good for him in -- by the middle of next year. so there is a sense in which i think some of the apocalyptic rhetoric that surrounds this scenario of a trump presidency is a bit overdone. and certainly on foreign policy, by not doing obama's foreign policy, he might actually achieve some relatively easy wins. >> thank you for joining us. we appreciate it. >> my pleasure. >> can i underline this entire first block of the show or first part of the show has been what if trump wins? what if trump wins?
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even though all the polls suggest that it is going to be hillary clinton. that's our brexit in our head. >> i think -- colors everything. it was -- we were proven, we, people who supposedly spent a lot of time analyzing this stuff, proven so wrong. >> yeah. >> by analyzing, you mean guessing. >> speculating. >> taking polls at face value. >> i take polish people, czech people, everybody at face value. i trust and love all humans. >> still ahead, one billionaire calling another a stingy giver. david tepper taking a swing at donald trump's charitable giving. is he right? we take a closer look next. but i keep it growing by making every dollar count. that's why i have the spark cash card from capital one. with it, i earn unlimited 2% cash back on all of my purchasing. and that unlimited 2% cash back from spark means thousands of dollars each year going back into my business...
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giving them the agility to have speed & precision. because no one knows & like at&t. welcome back. david tepper was on "squawk box" talking markets and the election. the billionaire wealth manager says he'll vote for hillary clinton because if donald trump's record on charitable giving during hurricane sandy. >> i got to tell you, during the financial crisis, during sandy, not one dime, not one dime -- and this is fact, not conjecture, fact, not one dime to one major food bank, one major pantry in jersey. during sandy, the sandy -- the
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sandy -- dbig sandy benefit, no one dime, not one dime. you can't tell me this is a charitable, generous person. when you live in these places, and you are living with your people here, and you have -- you're supposedly a multibillionaire and not one dime, not one dime for people on the greatest hour of need. >> wow. let's bring in cnbc wealth editor robert frank, following this story and doing some fact checking on it. >> this was a very emotional outburst. so we said let's look at the facts and the numbers. did donald trump give anything to new jersey after hurricane sandy? it turns out there is no evidence that he gave any money, more than a dime, to new jersey causes after hurricane sandy. we know this for two reasons. number one, we have repeatedly reached out to the campaign throughout the day to give us one example and they haven't. kellyanne conway on your show this morning, on "squawk box" said, mr. trump has been very generation with his time and money over a number of decades,
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but didn't say anything about sandy. the other reason we know this is this summer there was a bit of a controversy when chris christie, the governor of new jersey, said when hurricane sandy hit, we made a phone call to donald trump and he wrote a check. he then issued a correction that day, saying he misspoke, and that donald trump had not given any money to hurricane sandy. >> we have the actual quote from the spokesman that day, the governor misspoke this morning, mr. trump has given to other new jersey charities. i raise the question with him this morning. when wealthy people donate money, they're often criticized. the reason they're donating the money is because they're making up for -- so i asked him, are you worried you're going to get criticized because you're saying this about donald trump but then you, david tepper, left new jersey for florida, where your tax costs will be much lower, and he was the biggest taxpayer in all of new jersey. and this is -- this is what he said.
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>> it is about family, it is about the weather, it is about the -- and by the way, who said i totally cut my ties to jersey? i didn't cut my ties to jersey either. i still have an office in jersey. i'm one of the largest if not the largest charity contributors in jersey, so say i totally ran away from that state is not tru true. >> that was larry kudlow, who was on the set as well. you could hear him. he went on to say, i walked to the office in shorts this morning. >> good for him. and he did tell me several months ago the reason he moved is because it is closer to his sister and his mother. but we should say, david tepper is the only wealthy billionaire who when he left the state impacted the entire state budget. they had to revise the budget because david tepper, who makes most years more than a billion dollars a year and pays that 9% income tax rate in new jersey, talking over $100 million a
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year, many years, when he left, that affected the entire state budget. that has -- >> special meeting to try to figure out how to redo the budget because of tepper -- >> that's a big issue. one thing i would say overall, this is not about the election. david tepper is not out to change minds here. this is about billionaire competitiveness with philanthropy. and there is no more competitive space in the wealth space than philanthropy. when one guy says he gave something and he really didn't, among billionaires, that's cheating. and it also colors all wealthy philanthropists in a bad light. making people doubt whether they really did give as much as they did. >> mr. tepper, has he given to charity? >> he's given $70 million to new jersey related hurricane sandy efforts post 2008. for him, that's a big -- >> forget about billionaires. if you say you're going to donate money, i don't care if you make nothing, if you say --
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tyler says i'll buy girl scout cookies, i write them down, you better buy the cookies. and forget about trump. if you make a commitment to a charity, better stick with it. >> also fine if you prefer not to give to charity. that's fine too. but to say you've done it or say you've given a certain amount and not have done it, that's breaking rule number one among the wealthy. >> thanks, robert. >> and humanity. >> time for a cnbc news update. let's check in with sue herera. >> hi, melissa. here's what's happening this hour, everybody. hillary clinton talking to reporters in white plains, new york, before heading out on her final day of campaigning, with stops in pittsburgh, alandale, michigan, philadelphia, and raleigh, north carolina. >> i really do want to be the president for everybody. people who vote for me, people who vote against me because i think that these splits, these divides that have been not only exposed but exacerbated by the campaign on the other side are ones that we really do have to
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bring the country together. >> emergency workers assessing the damage in kushing, oklahoma, after a earthquake hit northern oklahoma last night. officials say 40 to 50 buildings were substantially damaged in the city. and the downtown area was blocked off as bricks tumbled on to the streets and sidewalks. a male snow crab fetched a record price of more than $12,000, yes, you heard me right, $12,000, at the first auction of the year in japan. obviously as you can see it is an albino snow crab. it weighed nearly three pounds and it was given the highest rating of five shining stars. there you have it. >> do we know what happens to that snow crab? >> well, i don't think it gets steamed and consumed. i think it probably goes on display at a -- >> i thought the finest sushi bar. >> i'm just guessing. but i've been at that --
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>> let's get our crab correspondent, senior crab correspondent to find out about that. >> i've been to that fish market. it is huge. they basically every year they have these the snow crab auction. yep. we'll see what happens. i don't know. >> all right, sue, thank you. >> you are welcome. coming up, a man who knows a thing or two about the political horse race, he ran for president in 2000, a new jersey senator. he was one of the champions of tax reform, the last time tax reform got done. our exclusive interview with bill bradley next.
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welcome back. stocks in rally mode. the major averages having their best one day gain since march 1st. look at where the dow stands, up 350 points, good for almost a 2% gain. led by jpmorgan and microsoft, health care and financials, the leading s&p sectors, the s&p 500 about a point off of session highs today. bond market, rick santelli tracking the action. i would have thought, i would have thought there would have been a stronger sell-off in the bond market considering the gains in the stock market. >> excellent point. and there was a sell-off, it was just a one time sell-off.
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if you look at a two-day of twos, you'll see basically with the global move upwards in equities, yields did move higher, and then they stopped moving altogether. look at a two-day of tens. yes, look at the big difference between friday and today, and look at the sideways action after it. look at a one week chart of tens, you see that really there really isn't a whole lot going on there. but, remember, we had a five-month high close on the 27th of october, the yield of 185. here we sit at 182. not a lot happening, but certainly not a lot of retracement in the other direction. finally, the one market that seems to actually be proactive, still moving. other than the stock market is the dollar index as you see on this one week chart. brian sullivan, back to you. >> rick santelli, thank you, sir. florida, we know, is a key state in this presidential race. in fact, it is a state that most agree donald trump must win to win the white house. so also a state with widespread early voting.
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diana olick is live in ft. pierce, florida, with a look at how many floridians have already cast their ballot. >> brian, the answer is half of registered voters in florida have already voted. the majority of them in person. over 6 million ballots cast and here's what we know so far. democrats showed up in greater numbers, but not that many more and the margin is far closer than in 2012. 40% democrats to 39% republicans. but that's just how they're registered. it is not how they voted. we do know there was a huge jump in early hispanic voters. they make up 17% of the electorate in florida. and a new count just in from the university of florida shows that nearly 1 million of the 6 million who voted early were hispanic. that share is up 100% compared to the last presidential election. it is clearly a sign of strong sentiment among this cohort. >> donald trump hasn't been a favorite for latin voters. and i think that he just wanted to prove it. so they wanted to prove it in
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the numbers. >> this area in port st. lucie county hardest hit during the foreclosure crisis. one in five homeowners here are still underwater on their mortgages today. we saw a lot of trump signs, especially in front of businesses. most analysts say donald trump cannot win the nation without florida, the math just doesn't work. both he and hillary clinton were in florida over the weekend, but he visited this state more throughout the campaign, roughly ten more visits than hillary clinton. back to you. >> thank you very much, diana. our next guest ran for president in 2000, losing the democratic nomination to al gore. here for a "power lunch" exclusive is former new jersey senator bill bradley, basketball hall of fame, rhodes sklcholar. it is tempting to ask you about the new york knicks and how you think they'll do this year but i don't think that's why you're here. i want to read you something
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from the wall street journal over the weekend, editorial called the gamble of trump and they begin by saying the case for donald trump is political disruption, a broken washington needs to be shaken up and refocused on the public good and who better to do it than an outsider beholden to neither political party. if only that reform possibility didn't arrive as a flawed personality who has few convictions and knows little about the world. what do you think of that statement? do you think washington is broken? needs to be broken? >> yes, i think it is broken. and i think the way you fix it is with campaign finance reform and i think if hillary is president she'll nominate supreme court justices that will repeal citizens united, which is the -- one of the main reasons money plays such a big role in politics. >> you've been very critical in the past of super pacs, in fact, according to bloomberg, an article in bloomberg, you thought that they should be declared illegal.
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and yet a super pac that you've been involved in has just spent considerable money producing and airing an ad that harkens back to the famous daisy ad of the 1964 johnson goldwater campaign, which basically cast mr. goldwater at the time and mr. trump at this time as unfit to command the nuclear arsenal. did your opinion of super pacs change? >> no, they haven't changed at all. i think the nuclear issue transcends all other issues. because if a president miscalculates, misreads the intent of the enemy, doesn't have the leadership or the capacity to diffuse a crisis diplomatically before it gets to be at the nuclear level, then it doesn't make a difference what that person's position is on abortion or campaign finance reform or immigration. i really think that at -- because if the war happens, we're all toast, right? and i really think that the most
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important question citizens ask themselves or herself before they vote for president is who do i trust with my life? and, you know, john mccain and mitt romney, if either one of them had won, i was for obama, but i would have trusted them with my life. i will not trust donald trump with my life. i don't think he's got the ability or the experience to diffuse a crisis and, second -- >> michelle here, i'm sorry to interrupt you, but i think a lot of people would be watching and saying, we had 16 years of foreign policy elite running the country. and we went to war. and president obama let the red line happen, didn't do anything about it, alienated allies, and the middle east is in flames. they look at what the foreign policy elite has achieved in the last 16 years, and they aren't impressed. >> well, i appreciate your point, but that's irrelevant to my point which is the nuclear
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threshold. and the personality of the person who would be in charge of the nuclear weapon. about a week ago, my former colleague sam nunn wrote an article about why donald trump was unfit to be commander in chief and assume the awesome responsibility of someone who has control of the nuclear codes. and in that article he then said about hillary clinton, that she has the experience, the skill, and -- to assume that responsibility. i agree with that. and i think if you just take a look at the debates, donald trump couldn't focus, he would focus for 35 minutes, focus for 50 minutes, and focus maybe for an hour, but not an hour and a half. when you're president of the united states, you got to be able to focus 24/7. >> i want to do something that seems hard to do, senator. brian sullivan, thank you for joining us. look past tomorrow to january 20th. and inauguration day. we're going to have a president,
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somebody will be in office, so i would like to get your opinion, sir, on a trump victory or a clinton victory, which should each of those presidents, assuming each one of them wins, what should their first act be? >> donald trump is president i have absolutely no clue. let's hope that doesn't happen. if hillary is president, i think she needs to reach out to people, if you take a look at the people who are voting for trump, i mean, there are a lot of those people who i think hillary could reach out to that would respond. many people are voting for trump because they want change, right? meaning change in washington. hillary can reach out to them. she can propose public financing of elections. and then people who are hard hit by the economic change. globalization, technological change, she can reach out to them. republicans who just vote republican no matter what, well, she's not going to be
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successful, because she can convey her respect to them. the only group i would not reach out to if i were her are the haters. >> could i turn you to tax reform very quickly, senator. that was 1986, i remember -- i wrote a cover story about it, when it happened. and you were on the forefront of it with dick gephardt, jack kemp and others. i wonder why you think the political climate has changed, and made tax reform, which i think a lot of people on both sides of the aisle think is necessary. why has it become so much more difficult to get done today? >> because there is not the bipartisanship that existed then. we had a republican president, i was a democrat, democratic head of ways and means committee, republican head of the finance committee and we worked together to achieve an objective that i think served all americans. and that's the key thing that we need in the next two, four years. we need to be able to have
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legislators who are interested in governing, not interested in investigations or charges or character assassination. >> all right. >> we need people who can govern and i hope there could be 15, 30 or 40 republicans in the house who are reasonable people and if they decided they want to be legislators, we could have some real progress in this country. >> senator, thank you very much. senator bill bradley of new jersey. thanks again. on deck, forget the pollsters, who do wall street's top economists see in the white house? the exclusive results of our latest cnbc fed survey on a big market day with the dow up more than 300 every single dow stock is higher today. these goofy glasses.
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welcome back. one day to go until the election.
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we have new information on who wall street's top economists think will win the white house and who they want to see in the white house. steve liesman is here with the results of the latest cnbc fed survey. steve. >> did you say one day, michelle? >> yes, finally. >> one day, wow. really interesting results from our cnbc fed survey. 36 folks surveyed, economists, wall street managers and strategists. 78% think clinton is likely to win, interesting about that, it is little change from the survey we did before the whole e-mail controversy erupted with the fbi. who is best for the economy? 47, 44, slight edge for donald trump on whose policies are best. a big edge for hillary clinton, 69 to 25 on who would be best for stocks. who do they want to win? this is also really interesting. 46% clinton, 23% say trump. i can tell you in 2012, when we asked this same question, different groups, some overlap in there, they supported mitt romney. let's look at what would happen to the fed chair.
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62% say if clinton wins, she's likely to reappoint janet yellen. 82% say donald trump will not reappoint. let's talk about possible fed heads in the event of a clinton -- a trump victory. john taylor mentioned most often. and second place, david malpass, frequent cnbc guest, both guys are, and adviser to donald trump. how about if hillary clinton wins? overwhe overwhelmi overwhelming lael brainard and stan fischer, larry summers, a possible fed chair before janet yellen and elizabeth warren is mentioned. each one of these guys, could you please take a picture of the faces over there. it is really -- i can see that. >> really? >> now you're not making the faces i saw when i mentioned elizabeth warren. elizabeth warren is tied with larry summer.
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>> does she have a -- >> i wish i could roll tape of how far your chin went down to your stomach. >> it was kind the way you described our faces. >> thank you very much. on deck, there you are, four stocks in focus. hey nicole. hey! i just wanted to thank your support team for walking me through my first options trade. we only do it for everyone gary. well, i feel pretty smart. well, we're all about educating people on options strategies. well, don't worry, i won't let this accomplishment go to my head. i'm still the same old gary. wait, you forgot your french dictionary. oh, mucho gracias. get help on options trading with thinkorswim, only at td ameritrade.
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go to blinkhealth.com and get $10 off your first purchase, promo code: tv. time for street talk. analyst recommendations on the stocks you need to know about. first stock is time warner, getting an upgrade from credit suisse to outperform. price target remains 107.50. the market is being too pessimistic which has a good chance of approval. even if the deal is blocked, they say strong underlying business trend in the potential for future offers would likely limit the downside. >> i wonder if this is also a referendum on the election. this deal. you wonder if whoever comes in, if they would use their influence to block it or approve it. >> yeah. >> we'll see. second stock l brands, jeffrey, big call,down grading l brands to an underperform from a hold, basically a sell, my friends. the analyst says while the stock has long been viewed as a safe
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haven, increased competition and pricing compression has raised concerns about victoria's secret, their main company, dominance in the intimate space. despite the concerns, they believe there is going to be a strong holiday, but jeffrey's cuts l brands target to 50 from 70. that's more than 20% below the current price. not hurting the stock today. >> not at all. next up, go pro getting slapped with the downgrade, surprise, surprise. from an underperform after the massive third quarter miss. they will miss the chance to fully capitalize on the product cycle because of the manufacturing issues. it still applies 50% of the full year revenue to take place in the fourth quarter. investors will see risk to that guidance and keep go perfect and the analyst is calling the penalty box until the focus switches back to cost cutting and new product cycles in 2017. >> analyst sees what the analyst sees. stock is down 58% and now throw the -- >> exactly. >> market cap, 1.5 billion, one
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wond feers if anybody start s sniffing around. hostess brands, we had the new guy running hostess, dean metropolis on friday, now getting analyst commentary on the new ipo. sun trust, beginning coverage with a buy into the $15 target. the newly restructured company has the management team to outpace the indulgent snacks category. it is a cream filled category. they also think the sustainability and the turn around will be better understood by investors. the stock is up 5% today. less upside than when we found the stock this morn. still, $12 stock. >> that was a fun interview on friday. >> yeah. a lot of cool brans they own. >> snowballs, right, tyler? do some damage to yourself with all their brands. >> yeah. >> pbr, twinkie, snowball. >> so good doing it. >> that's a great or really bad night. >> still ahead, beyond the
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presidential candidates, which party is better for stocks? that's straight ahead. as we head to break, another memorable moment in the race to the white house. >> i sat in my apartment today, on a very beautiful hotel down the street, known as -- >> made with chinese steel. >> i'll tell you, i sat there -- i sat there watching ad after ad after -- false ad, all paid for by your friends on wall street that gave so much money because they know you're going to protect them. ♪ if you're on medicare, remember,
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welcome back to "power lunch." here's what's on the menu this hour. bulls in charge, who is better for stocks? we'll look at what the history tells us, republican, democrat, we crunch the numbers. wall street's bonus blues, aheaded for another bad year. bonuses lower. we'll tell you how bad it could get. and down ballot drama, not just about who gets the white house. the congressional races that could shift the balance of power. the second hour of power begins right now.
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♪ it's all right riding around in the breeze ♪ let's get a check on the markets with two hours until the closing bell. major averages having their best one day gains in more than eight months. looks like the s&p 500 will avoid the first ten-day losing streak since 1975. health care, financials, technology, you see they're all leading the way, all higher by almost 2.5% if not more. dollar is stronger against all major currencies except for the mexican peso. it is rallying against the dollar. it has been a market barometer for trump. it moves inverse to the chances of a trump win. brian? >> i am brian sullivan. here are the other things, believe it or not, going on outside of the election. big stock stories. cisco shares, the food company, not the networking stock, up 10%, biggest gainer on the s&p 500 now. the food distributor comfortably beating earnings estimates. blue nile shares are surging more than 30%. the online jeweler being bought
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out by private equity. it will go private. and mgm resorts up 3%, earnings in the third quarter surging thanks to recent deals that it made. >> as we noted, stocks are rallying today, but beyond the presidential candidates, which party is better for stocks. dom chu joins us with that. >> if you look, guys, at what is happening with the overall election, a lot of people are wondering or not generally speaking democrats or republicans do better for the stock market, and as it turns out on average, and there are caveats here, the democratic presidents we had since the inception of the dow produced higher average gains. here is what we're talking about. democratic administrations, eight of them, distinct ones since the late 1800s when the dow got conceived. on average, the dow jones industrial average is up 82% during those presidential terms. meanwhile, the good news is for the republicans, it is still up and there are 12 of them there for those administrations, up overall by 47% on average.
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so no matter who is president, the market goes up on average. the best and worst, a lot of caveats here because of the great depression, the emergence from there, the great financial crisis, the dotcom boom, everything else. if you looked over the long-term, does it matter? since 1981, if you look at the s&p 500, broken down by republican and democrat administrations you stl s you c there has been some gyrations but the market has gone higher. here we are sitting a few percent away from the highs. it doesn't matter who is in the white house. this country has gone onwards and upwards and the stock market with it. here is where it gets interesting. a lot of folks generally speaking on wall street from the strategist side seem to think that the markets generally will go up with the clinton win and generally go down with a trump win. here is what we're talking about. jpmorgan chase out with a note today, saying with a clinton win, with he could see the s&p go back up to 2150, 3% higher than friday.
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for citigroup, we could see as much as a 5% drop if trump wins and we also have barkley saying they think a clinton win could be 2% to 3% gain for the s&p, 11% to 13% drop with a trump win. overall this is the way it is setting up, who knows what will happen with the elections. >> who knows if the gains on a clinton win are already factored into the market. we're seeing that 2% rise now, right? that's the issue here. dom, thank you. how should investors position their portfolio? let's bring in brian balski and richard bernstein. dom had this amazing report about the parties, the other thing -- wrench to throw at this, who controls the house and the senate. so in terms of today's rally, what are we seeing? a clinton victory rally, a clinton victory with a divided house and senate rally? everything is rallying across the board, which doesn't necessarily make sense if you think that clinton is going to
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capture the white house and dems are going to sweep congress. >> you brought up an excellent point with respect to are we robbing peter to pay paul in terms of rallying too much ahead of the results, number one. number two, gridlock is good. right? and there is only one instance since 1900 where we had a democrat in the white house, republican in the senate, and the republican in the house and that was 1996 and two instances of a democrat in the white house, democrat in the senate, and republican in the house. 1916 and 2012. and the results are still pretty decent as well. the best result is when a democrat sweeps across the board. those numbers have been a bit skewed as dom talked about and really took place in the 20s and 30s and 40s when clearly our economy is much different. the market is telling you clinton is going to win. and that's why we have seen this rising tide after a week last week of much consternation. >> rick, same question to you.
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what do you think the rally is showing us today? >> i would agree with what brian said. if i had to add one more thing, the markets don't like turmoil. they don't like turmoil that can't be predicted. we were in a period the last few weeks where there was a lot of turmoil that couldn't be predicted with the outcomes what going to be. i think that cloud has been removed for all practical purposes now, and i think that's one of the reasons why you're seeing this rally is that there is an element of uncertainty that has gone away. i mean, brian is right in terms of what he said about divided government and everything. we have seen that over the -- in this -- in president obama's terms, we have seen divided government in the market has gone up. so, you know, i'm not saying this is the only reason the market has gone up, don't misunderstand the point. i think brian nailed the major points. >> once the election is past urks and it will, believe it or not, at some point, be past us. >> not soon enough. >> we hope. we have a lot of other things we have to worry about.
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the macro thing is demographics. we have the oil risk, we have the fed risk, we have the china risk. so look past the election, what are your clients need to be most focused on if they say, whatever happens, the election is going to happen. i need to worry about what? >> growth. growth. >> profit growth, growth of what? >> revenue growth and earnings growth. at the end of the day, majority of returns we have seen in the bull market since 2009 driven by the multiple, multiple expansion. where is the growth going to come from in a scenario where we're still going to have lots of regulation, and what is going to happen in terms of international growth, i think over the near term, markets could go higher into the first half of 2017 and then where, again, where is the revenue growth going to come from, what is going to incentivize companies to hire -- to bring back cash, so we need to see what the platform looks like with respect to repatriation, and infrastructure bills. >> what about the timing, though. tyler led the show, over an hour ago, excellent point about just we're going to probably get a
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recession, not because of the candidates, just because history says we have got it, we got eight year, nearly eight year bull market on our hands. how tired are we? >> i'm tired. i'm tired of the election stuff. >> markets being tired. >> at the end of the day, we went through an unprecedented time. i hope and pray we never see this again when rich and i worked together at merrill lynch. in 2008, it was an unbelievable time for our country and our markets and i'm hopeful that that doesn't happen again. i think it is tough to say, we haven't had a recession for eight years, so we need a recession. i think we can push out the time of the recession more. at the end of the day, profits drive stocks longer term and we need to start to see stronger more discernible profit growth and revenue growth for this market to go exceedingly higher. >> what happens if secretary clinton wins and the first months of her presidency are an exercise in investigations and indictments, maybe impeachments. i'm looking over at the chart, grab that chart, one more time,
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96 to 2000, under the prior president clinton, which is a heart of his impeachment, market was rising. >> right. i think, you know, tyler, i think the important thing to remember is that washington's kind of a distraction. one of my first bosses told me, you never take investment advice from washington. it is always a distraction. you focus on the fundamentals. and what you are seeing in that period that you mentioned, 96 to 2000, though clearly not 99 to 2000, but for the beginning of that period, what you saw was a distinct improvement in fundamentals. i think right now, you are beginning to see the recovery and corporate profits. it is not the beginning, actually, the drop in corporate profits, the worst of the profit recession, was 4q 15, a year ago. we're seeing a gradual recovery in corporate profits. you have to have the recovery before you get the expansion. and the expansion before you get the boom. if you're looking for similarity between now and some of those
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other periods that one might refer to, it is that we are at a profit recovery period right now and the leadership and the stock market has been telling you that for the past six or seven months with cyclicals leading the way. >> we'll leave it there, gentlemen. thank you. brian, rich. >> thank you. >> immigration has been a major issue in the campaign. and it could help decide who wins the key state of arizona. contessa brewer is live in arizona. >> hi there, tyler. in this tiny town of nogales which share the same name of the city across the mexican border over this fence, it looks like republicans are making an intense push to win latino voters. the state gop set up headquarters in this town for the first time in history. they're trying to peel away support in an area dominated by democrats. barack obama beat arizona's own senator john mccain 72% to 27% in 2008. and the democrats have been
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highly organized. they're sending nogales teenagers out canvassing. >> they can relate with my culture an my region from mexico. we're latinos and i think the other party, it is not, like -- >> that matters here in arizona's second poorest county. unemployment is more than twice the national average. there are lots of empty storefronts and business owners report plummeting profits because of the weak peso against the dollar. but in this border town, more than 90% latino, it looks like there is a lot of support for trump as well over the weekend there were trump supporters, millennials out marching through town, carrying signs, pushing their support for him. they had epithets and rocks thrown at them. >> condititessa, thank you very much. join us tomorrow night here on cnbc. we have special election coverage. it begins at 7:00 p.m. eastern
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time. that is when the first polls close. all right, up next, the ceo of a big real estate company tells you what he thinks is the best election outcome for his company, and his industry. and heads up, wall street, some bad bonus news may be on the horizon. all that and more. stick around. ♪ ♪ for decades, investors have used a 60/40 stock and bond model, with little in alternatives. yet alternatives can tap opportunities that traditional assets can't. and even though they're called alternatives, they're actually designed to help meet very traditional goals. that's why invesco believes people should look past conventional models and make alternatives a core part of their portfolios. translation? goodbye 60/40, hello 50/30/20.
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wall street bonuses are expected to fall again this year. overall year end incentives
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including cash and stock projected to be 5% to 10% lower than last year according to a study by johnson associates. the decline started happening back in 2014. so this is not just this year, but it has been a pattern of declining incentive pay at the end of the year. >> three years in a row, i think. >> yeah. >> so when mergers get busted up by the antitrust division, those are all bankers that don't get paid but -- >> underwriting, fixed income. >> trading was down, except for the last fixed income boom we saw. that's another way you don't get paid. violin out for them? >> no, probably not. >> we're all counting the minutes until the election is over. so is corporate america. tomorrow, hopefully, will bring an end to months of uncertainty. rick, i know you have exciting stuff about the super bowl, but you understand i got to start with the selection, buddy. how hard has it been to run a business with all of this election uncertainty the last few months?
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>> well, like your previous guest, we just want it to be over. the fact that we have uncertainty about what policy is going to be and who is going to be running the country and how the tone is going to be set with all the negativity and the divisiveness in the campaign, we need it to be over. at least for our business, the good news is people need a place to live and they're still going to need a place to live whoever is president. >> how about this? do you think we'll get a collective sigh of relief, no matter -- whoever wins, let's hope, but we would get this sort of ungridlocking if that's a term, rick? will we see things sort of calm down and open up? there say lot of other issues out there that have nothing to do with the election that aren't going away. >> yeah, clearly, absolutely. i think that when you're making capital decisions in any business, certainty or some semblance of stability is what you need to make the decisions. if you look at our business this year, we have been a net seller in properties to the tune of $1.2 billion, we slowed our development pipeline down. so we're employing fewer construction workers and it is
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all about not having a strong view about what the future, you know, could be in america. >> is that because of political policies or is that because you just economically don't have a strong view? >> i think it is both. it is both. you think about the emotional part of the business cycle, people have to feel good about the future. we are in one of those longest recoveries we had, i think the fourth longest recovery that we had since the great depression. and when you think about political instability, along with, you know, long in the tooth in the recovery and the potential recession coming, it makes you nervous, so you -- businesses cut back and businesses aren't as aggressive. >> what worries you most as you look on the horizon. you talked about the possibility of a recession coming. >> sure. it is just the length of the recovery that we had. it has been eight years. i think an eight year bull market and longest recovery in my 40 year business career that
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we had, eight years. we are in a cyclical, you know, economy. it goes up and down and you have to plan for that. >> even if we to be the elections out, i'm just curious, you're entering a cycle where interest rates are potentially rising, you're predominantly leveraged or exposed to rental properties and there are numerous reports that perhaps rents are reaching their peak. aren't there a confluence of just normal fundamental factors keeping you from expanding and it is not the climate. >> when you think about the run that real estate has had since 2010, it has been some of the best rental increases and best net operating income growth we had in the last 20 years. and so clearly trees can't grow to the sky, and rents are definitely moderating the most markets, but what is happening is that they're off their white hot growth levels, but still long way -- way above long-term trend from a rent growth
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perspective. so clearly the economy is an issue more than it is the election, but the election just sort of adds a burden on to your thinking. >> rick, thank you very much. we appreciate you being with us and good luck with the super bowl. you're deeply involved in it, super bowl what li is that what it is? >> it is. super bowl li. we did ring the bell at the stock exchange this morning. so we fundamentally believe that the super bowl is, you know, the catalyst to the rally today. >> and lay the odds on the texans being in the super bowl. >> well, it hasn't happened in 50 years of super bowl history, but we love to do things in texas and set records, so we think that texans will be there come february 5th. >> going to be a very high j.j. wattage super bowl if they make it. >> especially if the cowboys are in it with them too. >> i think there may be one texas team in the super bowl. >> you never know. we'll take either one. but we would rather have the texans. >> thank you, rick. appreciate it. a squirrel, speaking of football, interrupts a football game. tesla drivers get some
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potentially bad news. and the good, the bad and the ugly. they're all coming up. all three of them. as we go to break, we check the markets again, stocks rallying with less than 24 hours to go until election day. "power lunch" returns after this. the infamous traitor. and i know a thing or two about trading. so i trade with e*trade, where true traders trade on a trademarked trade platform that has all the... get off the computer traitor! i won't. (cannon sound) mobility is very important to me. that's why i use e*trade mobile. it's on all my mobile devices, so it suits my mobile lifestyle and it keeps my investments fully mobile... even when i'm on the move. sign up at etrade.com and get up to six hundred dollars.
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a squirrel on the field during a packers and colts game in green bay, wisconsin. there is the critter. game had to be paused briefly because the squirrel was in the end zone, the red zone, there it goes. right there. did the lambeau leap, that squirrel. ran off the field, stadium personnel able to get him into a net. the packers gave him a ball. they lost, colts 31-26. >> how agile -- >> that's just -- >> that's beauty. >> that's nuts. >> like a gazelle. >> welcome back to "power lunch." all right, now it is time for the good, the bad and the ugly in today's trade. first to the good. ken moore up 3%. on to the bad, newmont mining,
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lower by more than 4%. stock one of the worst performers in the s&p 500 at this hour. and here is a head scratcher, ugly day for earth link, it is being acquired, bought by windstream, holdings more than a billion dollars, still, apparently not good enough, the stock is off by nearly 9%. >> actually, did some digging, up 15% on deal chatter on friday. >> that's why. not as good as people were expecting. some pretty big news out there for tesla owners. the electric carmaker ending free use of the worldwide charging station network. new owners will get a thousand miles worth of credits at super charging stations, but after those credits are used, they have to pay fees. tesla hasn't said how much it will charge, but says it will be less than the price of filling up a comparable gasoline car and says prices could fluctuate over time and vary by regional electricity costs. first, doing it for free because they wanted people to not have range anxiety and any thknow th could always charge. >> make it to where you're
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going. >> exactly. >> all right. well, despite what many think out there, few seem to believe it. we're in the talking about the election. we're talking about opec. the latest with what the cartel says and what the market may believe coming up. a heavyweight political panel on the way. why the key state of pennsylvania may not swing the way that many expect. and as we head to the break, another moment in the campaign when the candidates were asked to say something, you know, nice, about each other. >> i respect his children. his children are incredibly able, and devoted, and i think that says a lot about donald. i don't agree with nearly anything else he says or does, but i do respect that. >> i will say this about hillary. she doesn't quit. she doesn't give up. i respect that. i tell it like it is. en a momens romantic, why pause to take a pill?
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hi, everybody. i'm sue herera. here is your cnbc news update at this hour. the white house says president obama is still confident in fbi director james comey's ability to lead that agency. spokesman josh earnest telling
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reporters on air force one that the president views comey as a man of integrity. donald trump kicking off a five state final day of campaigning with a rally on florida's gulf coast. he told supporters in sarasota he expects to win the election and is not in it just to get credit for starting a movement. >> they say we'll get a tremendous amount of credit, win or lose. i said no, no, no, i don't want any credit if we lose. i'm not looking for credit. i'm not looking for credit. i'm looking to make america great again. not credit. well, many national chains will be offering freebie on election day. krispy kreme is offering a free doughnut if you show your i voted sticker and then to 7-eleven for a free cup of coffee. back to you guys. >> food always motivates. >> that's right. a lot of carbo loading tomorrow. >> thank you. we're 90 minutes away from the closing bell.
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stocks are rallying. we're just about at session highs on the s&p 500 right now with health care and financials leading the way. the oil market meantime closing for the day. let's get to jackie deangelis at the nymex. >> the gains in oil are getting stronger as we head into the close here at 2:30. interesting because we saw a steep decline last week, so this is the first rise we see in seven days, that's not unexpected, when we see moves like this. opec secretary-general saying earlier that in fact the deal that was promised to the market, it intends to come through on, but judging by the marginal move we're seeing today, there is little skepticism out there in the market. there is still an oil glut, big build in inventory last week, we're expecting another 2 million barrel build on wednesday from the department of energy. so watch for that. earthquake in oklahoma, seeming to impact the markets earlier but dying out as well. keep an eye on the dollar. some pre-election market moves are having an impact here, could be tempering a steeper gain on
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oil. back to you. >> thank you. moments from now, donald trump will hold a rally in north carolina. here is the question. why is trump spending his last day before the election in that particular state? scott cohn is in that particular state and joins us now with the answers. >> the short answer is that this is a state that donald trump cannot afford to lose. he has really little margin for error if he wants that path to 270 electoral votes. 15 of them here in north carolina, a state that mitt romney won in 2012. and trump has to hold on to, so this rally on the north carolina state fair grounds is bigger than the usual donald trump rally that has characterized so much of this last barn storming trip as we look inside. he's been at airplane hangars, something he favors, he can touch down, make a speech and go. this is a bigger deal. he's going to make a speech here on stage a short time from now
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and had major surrogates there including former arkansas governor mike huckabee. if you think the democrats are taking this for granted, do not think again. hillary clinton will end her whole campaign with a midnight speech here in raleigh, tim kaine, her running mate, has been in the state through the day today, rally starting up now in wilmington. former president bill clinton is in the state today. the clintons as a family will appear at the midnight rally. here is what may have them worried. these are the preliminary early voting totals from the north carolina state board of elections. 3.1 million votes cast, that's huge, it is 45% of the registered electorate, up from four years ago, 42% democrat, 32% republicans, 26% unaffiliated. while that might seem to bode well for the democrats, democratic turnout is down, african-american turnout is down, debate about why that is, it is an issue. also a big variable, experts say, suburban women. >> this is a group that hillary clinton is working very hard to win over.
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and, of course, a group that the republicans are working very hard to try and keep them staying home. >> also at stake here, possibly control of the u.s. senate, a very tight senate race and the most hotly contested governors race here between roy cooper, the state attorney general and pat mccrory. at issue, the bathroom bill. >> thank you very much, scott. we're almost there, just a few hours away until the election day voting starts. let's bring in former pennsylvania governor ed rendell, also a cnbc contributor and nbc news political analyst and former texas senator kay bailey hutchison. welcome to you both. governor rendell, let me start with you. i was traveling this weekend in pike county, pennsylvania, the northeast corner of the state. i did not see one hillary clinton sign. i saw a lot of trump/pennsylvania sitrump/penc signs. how tight is it in your home state? >> it is going to be very tight.
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all the polls, the public polls have hillary clinton at about a -- about 4 four point into the election. but there is so many variables, turnout, the enthusiasm gap that trump people seem to be more enthusiastic, though i think our voters are very determined, i've been campaigning nonstop for three days, and i see a quiet determination with our voters. but there are a lot of variables, is there a hidden trump vote? so many things, so if anybody in pence wants hillary clinton to win, they better get out and vote tomorrow. >> does the settling of the transit strike in philadelphia play one way or the other? >> it helps the democrats, no question, because there are some particularly seniors who usually have to take public transportation to get down to vote. though interestingly, super pac was set up on saturday and it raised over $60,000 and uber and lif
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lyft are offering free rides to the polls, they'll take anybody to the polls to vote and back home for $10, raised by the super pac. so i think in the end it wouldn't have made much of a difference, but if there is an advantage, slight advantage, democrats. >> senator hutchison, you served in the senate with mrs. clinton. i want to spin the tape forward into 2017. talk to me about how you see senator clinton relating -- excuse me, secretary clinton, she was a senator as well, relating to what may be republican controlled congress, and how you think mr. trump would work with congress. >> well, i think that that's a great question looking forward now because i think a republican congress is going to be essential for the balance of powers if it is a president clinton. and i think if it is a president trump, that mike pence will play a major part in working with
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congress to do many of the things that people want to see changed, but to do what is doable and promise what is doable as opposed to raising expectations. so i think that a republican congress will be very helpful, particularly the senate, because i think -- i think either hillary clinton or donald trump would be able to work with mitch mcconnell, and i think there would be more of a centrist move forward, if it is president clinton if she is dealing with mitch mcconnell than if she is having to work with elizabeth warren and bernie sanders and the things that they have wanted to do. >> senator, a lot of talk about the surge of latino voters, particularly in the southwest, and what that might mean for voting down there. and it is being interpreted as a good sign for hillary clinton. do you buy that? what do you make of that? >> well, i think the latino
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voting is energized and i think it is bigger than it is probably been before. and i do think that they are more focused now and i think they're going to be a factor. i really do, particularly in states that are not already decided, which i think texas is, but i think florida maybe isn't and maybe there are others where it could make a big difference. >> senator, i'm going to ask you to dive into the dirty world of polling for a second. the difference in most of the polls, let's call it 4%, 5% seems to be the aggregate of all of them. you get my point. what percent, if at all, do you think is sort of a secret trump poll? like how much is being left off because people -- even on the phone won't admit that they're voting. do you believe there is that gap? >> i think there is a gap, i think there is a gap in polling
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in general. because people don't have land lines like they used to. and they aren't going to spend 30 minutes on the phone talking about the issues they care about and what is their perception of the candidates. so you now have a situation where i'm not sure any polls are really accurate, and i do think there is a factor of people not wanting to say they're voting for trump. and maybe they are. but i think the bigger picture really is how do you get true polls. we're going to know after this election if there really is a polling gap as opposed to the other kind of gaps -- >> i'm interested in your answer to that as well, governor rendell. i look at real clear politics, it says it is for clinton, by nearly 3%, right, but you think it is too close to call. i wonder because pennsylvania has been a heart breaker for the republicans. larry kudlow a couple of weeks
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ago, they think they're going to win pennsylvania every time and we never do. he's given up on the place. it is really that close and are the polls that off? >> i agree with senator hutchison. i don't trust the polls. though it is interesting. i've run for office 17 times and, kay, the polls were always right, the two i lost, they were right, and the 15 i won, they were right. but i think this is a little different. there is so many variables in this election. so i think it is going to be closer than the polls. if i had to bet, i would bet that secretary clinton would win by two or three points, but, boy, everyone who is for her, nobody better think this election is over, they better get out and vote. >> governor rendell, thank you very much. senator hutchison, always great to see you. >> thank you. thank you, ed. >> join us tomorrow night, cnbc will have special election coverage, it starts at 7:00 p.m. eastern time. that is when the first polls close. >> all right, on deck, more on this massive rally for your money, the s&p 500 soaring, but
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it is time now for trading nation. why don't we dig right on into this big old fat market rally. gina sanchez and rich ross. rich, i know that all the sort of headlines were sort of the clinton bounce and clinton rally today, and perhaps they are, but i will note, technically, after a nine-day drop, we bounced almost precisely off the 200 day moving average for the s&p 500. i won't ask you to dive into politics, but how much of this rally do you think may be simply technical timing? >> i think all of it is, and that's the point of the market that we have been in for basically the last three months. clearly i have some concerns here, and i think the recent decline is more than a byproduct of partisan politics. obviously politics are overwhelming price action. as it pertains to the charts, to your point, we were down eight days in a row, that is a rare occurrence, you were up nine in a row on the vix, which is unprecedented. that's a contrarian indicator,
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the presence of that support at the 200 day moving average, the most oversold conditions on the rsi, all year, all of that has set you up for the technical bounce. i think in the short-term, if hillary clinton were to win the election, we would see an extension of this advance. the way i see it, 2190, if clinton wins. if trump wins, i see it going the other way, potential downside to 1948, where dewey defeated truman down in 1948. clinton more positive in the short-term, we see that today. now, key point here, i'll finish up on this, transports. this gives you reason for optimism. you're breaking out to a new high for the year in the transports and the airlines and copper. so those are things that are typically associated with the more bullish backdrop. so once again, clinton victory gives us 3% upside to 2190. possibly a marginal new high. and trump victory takes you down almost eight, possibly 10% to the 1948, 1950. >> okay. technical view there. so stripped the emotion out of it. but do you believe that a trump
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victory will send us down 10%? >> i think it could. i totally agree with rich, that the downside is far worse than the potential upside of clinton victory. now, i do believe we're go to have a clinton victory, that's our current view. and i do think -- i absolutely agree that transports will be a huge beneficiary of clinton's plans, economic plans. we saw tremendous potential bounce. but when we modeled a trump scenario, oxford economics showed that the potential downturn in the economy could be devastating if he were even allowed a fraction of what he was trying to do. so i think that the market drop could actually be 10% or more. >> wow. gina and rich, we could go for another half hour but we cannot due to time. we'll see you soon, thank you. for more, go to tradingnation.cnbc.com. coming up, believe it or not, we're going to manage to turn our folk cus away from clin
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versus trump for a minute. just a minute. why? because we're going to look at other key races. >> oh, good. >> so-called down ballot. that will determine the balance of power in the senate and the house, with many people believe is what is driving this rally today. "power lunch" will be right back. and now, the latest from tradingnation.cnbc.com and a word from our sponsor. >> when it comes to investing, there are really two popular methodologies, fundamental analysis, which focus on things like revenues, earnings and cash flows, and technical analysis, which focuses on chart patterns, price movement and momentum. most successful investors employ some combination of both methodologies when making investing decisions.
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so we know the presidency is in everybody's mind. do not forget the fate of the house and the senate hang in the balance. the house nearly certain to stay republican. the gop currently controls 246 seats. there are 16 house races that are seen as really very competitive, so even if the gop loses all 16 of those, it is likely to still keep a majority, remember, you need 218 seats to have that. senate, far closer to turning
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blue. right now, the republicans hold a majority. 54 seats to democrats 46. but there are five senate races that are seen as so close, they could go either way. so these are the state races for senate that you must watch the most the most closely tomorrow. indiana, missouri, michelle's home state of new hampshire, nevada and north carolina. so obviously there are many more races than just those five. you look at 270. those are the five that are identified effectively as coin flips that can also flip the senate. >> got it. that's a great run down. >> billionaire hedgefund manager also weighing in on down ballot races on squawk box this morning. >> definitely clinton is my choice. i am going to be down ticket republican. i think that is best for the country right now.
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>> with hours to go before the polls open how are the races shaping up? joining us read wilson national correspondent for the hill. good to have you here. we just talked about the house because republicans are going to hold it. it matters. it matters to the speaker. >> it absolutely does. democrats are cursing jim comey because two weeks ago they thought they were going to pick up two house seats and more than half in the house. today there are a lot of suburban well educated districts where republicans are coming ho emto trump and it is possible they can keep their aseats. paul ryan's job security would be impacted if he loses a lot of his closest allies. >> do you agree with that assessment? >> absolutely. the republicans who are in
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danger tomorrow are republicans who tend to be from the more moderate centrist wing. there is faction of 20 to 30 republicans who will vote against leadership no matter what. if the republican majority narrows significantly those 20 or 30 become much more important part of the house republican conference. >> what is your prediction? >> we are probably talking about between 10 and 15 loss for republicans. in a big year where the top of the ticket clinton and trump are driving the conversation. there is always a member or two that thinks how the heck do i lose? >> what is your prediction on the senate? >> democrats could have been in position to pick up as many as six or seven seats. now the senate is looking closer to 50/50. democrats are looking like they are in good shape to hold harry reid's seat in nevada. good shape to pick up illinois, wisconsin and pennsylvania. today it looks like it may go to
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democrats. so that would give them 50. but to really have some comfort, some margin for error they would really need to pick up north carolina or missouri or indiana. right now north carolina looks like their best bet but indiana and missouri are looking very challenging. >> that is surprising from where it was in indiana where if you asked six months ago a lot of people would say evan was going to get the seat back. >> both of us had a feeling when the seat opened up and told him to get into the race because he had 10 million left over that this wasn't going to end so well. >> did you want to -- >> let's talk consensus for a second. markets reallying on the belief that hillary clinton appears like she is going to win the white house. we are going to have divided government. house will be controlled by the republicans and the senate who knows. what gets done if anything under
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that scenario? >> not too much especially if republicans have a narrower majority in the senate and conservatives have a stronger grip over paul ryan. i think chuck schumer, incoming democratic liter, mitch mcconnell and paul ryan and nancy pelosi will look for some area where they can agree on something. we have heard talk about international business tax reform and infrastructure bank is something big the clinton campaign is pushing. in this era of government grid lock it is hard to find the particular areas where a member is not going to be attacked by his or her right or left flank when they go home. >> i will assume you generally agree with that. what if we get the brexit version here and donald trump wins and now you have three branches of government controlled by republicans? does that mean paul ryan's
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legislative agenda can advance? >> i think the senate is important for supreme court. the house is important for the future of the republican party. if donald trump does pull up the upset of the century and wins then could he see it as validation of his brand of politics and seek to overthrow paul ryan anyway? that's not entirely outside the realm of possibility. if clinton does hang on and win paul ryan faces a choice. does he want to be speaker when he has to reach across the aisle to keep the government open and avoid a debt default. he says he will but we will see. >> gentlemen, we shall see. that's a good way to put it. you know what we haven't talked about? >> eric cantor. >> what if there is a tie. >> in the electoral votes. >> there is a scenario where there is i think 269-269 and that one congressional district
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in maine could determine who is president. >> i want to remind everybody eric cantor had basically 60% of the vote in the poll the day leading up to his wipe out. he wasn't close. he was way up. the next day he was way gone. i think the american public may have surprises in for us. >> check please is next.
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we are watching the rally carefully. it is not just a hillary clinton rally. the reason why i would put that forth is you take a look at the action in health care and financials you believe hillary clinton will win the white house and there will be democratic control of congress you would not think these sectors in particular would go higher. it doesn't make sense. so you take a look at this. >> david tepor was on squawk box this morning. the other thing you talked about was what he thought would happen if trump wins. he is voting for hillary clinton. he said worse levels would be 20/40 if there is a donald trump win. he just doesn't want to be president. >> i would say i remember in the year 2000 the great late tim russell with his white board said all you have to watch is florida. he was right. 537 votes. that was the difference. i say this year you have to
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watch florida. if trump can't win florida i don't think he can win. >> not to be preachy and weird. on wednesday morning the sun will rise and the sun will set later that day. stocks will go up and down. >> we will be here. >> some people born and some people die. america will go on. >> "closing bell" starts right now. > i'm writing this down. the sun will rise and the sun will set. so life will go on apparently. >> we hope we will be here. >> of course, we will be here. >> i might be in a different place tomorrow. welcome to "closing bell." i'm kelly evans here at the new york stock exchange. >> that would make me bill griffith. this is the last hour of trading before election day tomorrow. and there is a global rally that has been spurred apparently by news

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